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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-12-24 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 233.5 | 120-129 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Under. While many teams are just going through the motions with only a couple games left in the regular season, these two teams still have plenty to play for. The Cavs are only one game up on the Magic and the Pacers, who could bump them out of the 4th seed. Despite the massive playoff implications, the total for tonight's game is higher than it has been in any of the previous 10 meetings. The Cavs are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and they won the last meeting by a score of 108-103 at Indiana last month. While the over is 7-3 in the Cavs last 10 overall, only one of those games saw more than 233 total points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-31-24 | Mavs v. Rockets UNDER 230.5 | 125-107 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. If the playoffs started today, the Lakers would face the Warriors in the play-in. If that is the matchup you would like to see .... "Houston, we've got a problem!" The Rockets have won 11 straight, and they are just a game back of Golden State. Houston is coming off a 101-100 win at Utah, a dominant effort defensively. They held the Mavs under 100 points the last time these teams met, and the total has gone under in seven of the last 10 meetings. The Mavs have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 overall. The stakes are high, so expect defense to be intense in Houston tonight. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-27-24 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 231.5 | 132-126 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The NBA would love to see LeBron James and Steph Curry face off in the play-in, but not everything is going according to script. Houston... we've got a problem! The Rockets have won nine straight and 11 of their last 12. They are now just a game back of the Warriors for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Rockets catch the Thunder playing the second game of a back to back, and with a playoff berth on the line we should see some lock down defense. Houston will try to avenge a 112-95 loss to the Thunder in the last meeting. These teams have failed to reach the total in eight of the last 10 meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-23-24 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 232.5 | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. This total looks far too high when you consider who is going to start for both teams. The Raptors have lost nine straight, scoring an average of 104.7 points in those games. Their entire starting lineup has been out for the last two games, and it should be all backups again in the second game of a back to back. The Wizards have lost six of seven, scoring an average of 106.8 points during that span. They are coming off a 109-102 home win over the Kings on Thursday, and this is a great opportunity to earn another rare home win. Toronto has gone under in seven of their last 10, and the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240.5 | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a free play on Under. Prior to the All Star break one might think these two teams would be sure to get into a shootout, but times have changed. The Warriors are battling for a play-in spot, while the Pacers are only a half game out of a play-in spot. Indiana has seemingly learned how to play defense, as eight of their last 10 have gone under the total. The under is 5-5 in the Warriors last 10 overall, but none of those games saw a total as high as tonight's game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 238 | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. The Lakers host the Warriors tonight, it what should look a lot like a playoff game. These two teams sit in the 9th and 10th spot in the Western Conference, battling for a play-in spot. Steph Curry is expected to return for an ankle injury, but it remains to be seen if he will be limited in any capacity. When you think of Lakers versus Warriors you might expect a history of high scoring games. Only once in the last 10 head to head meetings have they combined to score enough points to reach tonight's total, and that was a controversial double overtime win for the Lakers in January this year. This number looks a little inflated given the high stakes here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-12-24 | Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 242 | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. This total opened at 236.5, and has been bet up several points. Of course this is a matchup between the Pacers #1 scoring offense and the Thunder's #3 scoring offense. But things have changed since the All Star break, and defense is no longer an after thought. The Pacers have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 overall, and these teams have only gone over once in the last four head to head meetings, and that game would have fallen short in regulation, but it went to overtime. Oklahoma City has gone under in four of their last five overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-09-24 | Raptors v. Blazers OVER 226 | 118-128 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Scoring normally takes a nose dive after the All Star break, and defense usually intensifies as the playoffs approach. That was on full display last night, when six of eight games failed to combine for 226 points, and five teams failed to score 100 points. These two teams are the exception to the rule though, as Toronto has an exciting group of young players that are pushing the pace and having fun, without the pressure of playoff expectations. The Blazers are giving backups and third string players a chance to earn jobs, and they have been competitive despite being hit hard by injuries. The Blazers have gone over in seven of their last 10, and Toronto has allowed and average of 124 points over their last five games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-02-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 229.5 | 124-114 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Nuggets will be in LA to take on the Lakers Saturday, and Denver has won four straight in this series. The under is 4-2 in those games, and these teams have gone under in seven of the last 10 meetings. This is a big game for LeBron James, as he's just nine points away from 40,000 for his career. The Nuggets aren't interested in participating in any milestones for LeBron, and they have held opponents to an average of just 107.6 points in their last 10 overall. The under is 14-4 in Denver's last 18 overall. This number looks a little inflated. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-01-24 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 238.5 | 120-105 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Warriors will be playing the second game of a back to back in Toronto. The Dubs are a solid 8-4 this season when playing on back to back nights. The over is 4-0 in their last four when playing on the road in the second game of a back to back. Toronto has gone over this number in four of their last five, and history tells us that these teams have scored plenty in recent meetings. The over is 5-0 in the last five head to head meetings, and the Raptors won the last meeting by a score of 133-118 at Golden State in January. We expect another shootout north of the border. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-23-24 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Cavs are favored on the road at Philly on Friday, with both teams coming off a loss last night in the first game back from the All Star break. This makes plenty of sense, as Philly is just 6-15 without Joel Embiid this season, and they averaged just 112 points in those games. This is significantly less than the over 121 points per game that they averaged in games that Embiid played. The Cavs are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 2nd in opponents scoring average allowing 109 points per game. We should expect a strong effort on defense from both these teams coming off a loss. This number appears to be a bit inflated. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-22-24 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 231.5 | 93-121 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Raptors lost 119-116 at home versus Brooklyn in December, but so much has changed since then. Toronto traded elite defender OJ Anunoby to the Knicks for a couple of talented offensive players (Quickley and Barrett). This has changed the style of play, and following the trade the Raptors went over in seven straight games. Coming out of the All Star break, we should expect Toronto to get right back to pushing the pace. The Nets just fired their coach, and Kevin Ollie takes over as interim coach for the remainder of the season. We'll see if the players respond here in his debut. I expect both teams to score their share of points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-15-24 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 237.5 | 140-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The last time Golden State was on the second game of a back to back Curry scored 42 in a win over Indiana, prior to that Curry scored 60 in a loss at Atlanta. I expect another high score here in Utah, against a Jazz team that likes to play fast and loose. The over is 9-4 in Utah's last 13 games overall, and the Jazz have gone over in seven of their last eight versus Western Conference teams. The Warriors have gone over in four straight when playing on back to back nights. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-04-24 | Raptors v. Thunder OVER 233.5 | 127-135 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. Immediately following the trade that sent OJ Anunoby to New York in exchange for RJ Barrett and Emanuel Quickley, the Raptors appeared to improve on offense and regress on defense. The result was a stretch of several high scoring games before cooling off. They have gone over in four straight against the Thunder, and there are several storylines ahead of this game. You have Canada's team taking on Canada's best player (SGA). Canadian RJ Barrett has missed three straight games, but is expected to give it a go in the morning shoot around to see if he can return tonight. The over is 6-1 in the Raptors last seven at Oklahoma City. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-03-24 | Lakers v. Knicks UNDER 228.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. This number looks a little high, as the Knicks have gone under this number in 11 straight games. The Lakers are coming off a 114-105 win at Boston, but they had gone over in seven straight prior to that. These teams have gone under in six of the last nine head to head meetings, and all three games that went over the number required overtime to do so. My only concern here is that the Lakers seem to get awarded 3 x more free throws than their opponent. The Knicks have been dominant defensively since the trade with Toronto, and even a few favorable calls for LeBron shouldn't be enough to keep LA in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-02-24 | Raptors v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | 106-135 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. So immediately following the trade that sent RJ Barrett and Emanuel Quickly to Toronto in exchange for OJ Anunoby, we saw the Knicks games trend under and the Raptors games go over. Toronto is coming off a 118-107 win at Chicago, falling short of 227 despite shooting 52 percent from the field and 48 percent from beyond the arc. Barrett and Quickly didn't play, and they both remain questionable for Friday's game at Houston. I don't like the Raptors chances of shooting as hot as they did in Chicago. The under is 7-1 in the Raptors last eight overall, and the total for tonight's game is higher than it was in five of the last six head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-25-24 | Nuggets v. Knicks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. The Nuggets have failed to reach the total in three straight, and they rank dead last in the NBA in pace of play. The Knicks are right behind them, with both teams averaging roughly 100 possessions per game. The Knicks have been a different team since the trade with Toronto, and they have now gone under in 10 of their last 11 games. These teams have gone under in four of the last six head to head meetings, and it doesn't look like the bookmakers have adjusted here with what looks like an inflated number. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-23-24 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Knicks are a completely different team since the trade acquiring OJ Anunoby from Toronto. They have won nine of 11 and they have failed to reach the total in nine of their last 10 overall. They have held opponents to roughly 100 points per game during that span. The Brooklyn Nets are trending in the opposite direction, losing 10 of 12. Brooklyn are 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games. I expect the Knicks to shut down the Nets, resulting in another low scoring game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-20-24 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 228 | 100-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. I said this about the Knicks prior to their recent game: "The Knicks are a different team since the trade acquiring OJ Anunoby from the Raptors. They have won six of seven, allowing opponents to average just 101 points per game during that span." They come off a 98-94 home loss to Orlando, and they followed that up with a 109-94 win over Houston. Now they play the Raptors who just dealt Pascal Siakam to Indiana. This should be another low scoring battle at MSG. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-17-24 | Rockets v. Knicks UNDER 220 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. I said this about the Knicks prior to their last game: "The Knicks are a different team since the trade acquiring OJ Anunoby from the Raptors. They have won six of seven, allowing opponents to average just 101 points per game during that span." They come off a 98-94 home loss to Orlando, and they now face a Houston team that they have owned in recent seasons. The Knicks have won seven straight in this series, and Houston has averaged just 100 points per game in the last six meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-24 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 222 | 98-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Knicks are a different team since the trade acquiring OJ Anunoby from the Raptors. They have won six of seven, allowing opponents to average just 101 points per game during that span. The Magic rank 24th in the NBA in scoring, and they are 7th in opponent's scoring average. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, going under in six straight meetings and eight of the last 10. The Magic are coming in off four consecutive unders. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-11-24 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 234 | 124-128 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Knicks are a different team since the trade with the Raptors. New York is 5-0 since the trade, allowing opponents to average much less than 100 points per game during that span. The Raptors are also doing well since the trade, but they have gone over in all their games. It makes sense that after trading a pair of offensive minded players for an elite defender, this would be the result. These teams have gone under in seven of the last 10 meetings, and they haven't scored 234 points in regulation in any of the last five meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-06-24 | Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 239 | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. Throw out the previous numbers for the Knicks, since the trade this team is trending in a different direction. They gave up a couple of offensive players to acquire an elite defender, and in the three games Anunoby has played the Knicks have held opponents under 100 points per game. Washington has lost six of their last seven at home, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven versus the Knicks. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-24 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 260 | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. How high can an NBA total go? The Bucks and the Pacers are high flying offensive powerhouses, so it comes as no shocker that they have gone over in seven of the last eight meetings. We have yet to see a total as high as 260 though. Only four of the last seven meetings have gone over 260 combined points. These teams rank 1st and 2nd in the NBA in scoring, but both average well below 130 points per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets UNDER 226 | 129-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. You gotta have a big set to be betting unders in the NBA these days, but the Iceman has a pair, don't you worry about that. Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing 108 points per game. They lost at home last night to Indiana, in a game that they let get away from them. The Suns are also coming in off an ugly loss, and I am expecting both these teams to reign it in here as they look to bounce back. The last time Phoenix played at Houston they scored just 97 points. We might see both these teams bring it on defense tonight. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-23 | Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 224.5 | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 1341 h 56 m | Show | |
4* |
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12-18-23 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 219 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. So we go inside the numbers here and we find that both these teams rank in the Top 10 in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. Minnesota ranks 2nd allowing less than 106 points per game. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 in the NBA in pace of play, and Miami ranks 28th averaging just 100 possessions per game. These teams have gone under in three of four head to head meetings dating back to 2021. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 258.5 | 126-140 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. We expect a high scoring game here in Milwaukee tonight, but how high are we talking. This is the biggest number I have ever seen, and I think there are just so many things that can happen to prevent these two offensive juggernauts from getting there. Putting things in perspective, last week's meeting in the In-Season Tourney ended with a final score of 128-119, going under the inflated number. The previous head to head meeting went over the listed number of 239.5, but the score of 126-124 wouldn't have come anywhere near this number. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 head to head meetings, but only three of those games saw enough points to go over this inflated total. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-09-23 | Pacers v. Lakers UNDER 241 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Pacers are cooking fire heading into the NBA In-Season Tournament Final, but the Lakers may be able to cool them off. These two teams have gone under in three straight head to head meetings, and the Lakers have held opponents to just 105 points per game in their last five. We saw LA hold the Pelicans to just 89 points in the Semi Finals. Expect a strong defensive effort here in a Championship Game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-23 | Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 221 | 123-133 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Under. These two rivals rank 3rd and 4th respectively in opponent's scoring average, and history tells us that low scores have been the norm in recent meetings. They have failed to reach the total in three of the last four head to head meetings, and both previous meetings this season have gone under. The Celtics have won nine straight at home and the total has gone under in 10 of Boston's last 14 games overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-06-23 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227 | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Oklahoma City Thunder come in averaging over 119 points per game, but the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing 107 points per game. These teams have gone over this number in the last two meetings, but both those games were at Oklahoma City. They have gone under in four straight at Houston. The total has gone under in eight of Houston's last 11 games, and they have won eight straight home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-01-23 | Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 217 | 119-106 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the under. This matchup features two of the top 10 defensive teams in the NBA. In fact the Knicks rank 1st in the NBA in opponents scoring average allowing 105 points per game. The Raptors have failed to reach the total in each of their last three games, and this looks like a matchup where both teams are content to play at a slow pace. A few weeks ago an article was published in The Athleitc titled: "Toronto Raptors are slow, stingy and soft on glass" ... noting that they ranked 28th in the NBA in pace of play. I suspect that one of these teams will fail to score 100 points in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-29-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | 124-134 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. The Rockets lost a tough one last night in Dallas, but they could catch a break in their second game of a back to back at Denver. The Nuggets are banged up, and it remains to be seen how much of their starting lineup can play. Ime Udoka has done a helluva job making this team competitive, and the Rockets currently rank #1 in the NBA in opponents scoring average. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference, and they are trending 13-7 overall to the under. Houston has gone under in seven of their last nine overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Nuggets have gone under this number in all of their games this season, and they have gone over this number just once in their last eight games versus Dallas. Opponents have averaged just 103.6 points per game so far, and the Nuggets did rank in the Top 10 in opponent scoring average last season. Dallas is 4-0 and the Mavs have averaged 222.5 points in those games. They have had a soft schedule so far, and this Game at Denver should be a far bigger challenge for them. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-30-23 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 231 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. These teams went under in three of four meetings last season, and the total for tonight's game is far higher than it was in any of those games. Denver ranked 5th in opponent's scoring average last season, and three games in they rank 5th in that category so far this year. The Jazz have gone over in each of their first three games, but they faced opponents that were willing to pay at their desired pace. On the road at Denver, we expect the Nuggets to dictate the pace and style of this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-26-23 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 227 | 117-118 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. |
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10-25-23 | Mavs v. Spurs OVER 229.5 | 126-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Spurs ranked dead last in the NBA in opponents scoring average, allowing over 121 points per game. They have gone over in six straight versus Texas rivals Dallas, and during that span they have done plenty of scoring in their own right. San Antonio scored an average of 123 points in their last six meetings versus the Mavs. San Antonio did plenty of scoring in the pre-season, with 120 or more in three of their five games. We might see another shootout in Texas tonight. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Finals are expected to come to a conclusion tonight, and if that's the case there is a trend of low scores in closeout games in the NBA Finals over the last 10 seasons. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 closeout games in the Finals, and the majority of those games went under 200 combined points. The Heat have failed to score 100 points in three of four games in this series, and they are averaging 99 points per game in their last eight in the playoffs. Seven of those games went under the total. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat OVER 210.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The total for Game 1 was sitting at 219, and it has been trending lower every game. Now in Game 4 the number sits at just 210.5, after Miami shot just 37 percent from the field in Game 3. We should expect some positive regression for Miami, and I think they score 100+ here tonight. It's tough to see anything different from Denver as the mismatch with Jokic is just something that isn't going to change. The over is 13-5 in Heat's last 18 games following a double-digit loss at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 214 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 62 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. One of the stories in Game 1 was the Heat attempting an NBA Playoff record low two free throws. This is one of the factors that resulted in such a low score. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1." The total for Game 2 is several points lower than it was in Game 1, and I expect the Heat to get to the free throw line more often, and hit more threes in Game 2. Whatever the Heat do, I can't see them stopping Joker. I''l take the over here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Here is what I said prior to Game 6: "We've seen some big money moving in on the under in Game 6. This might as well be an elimination game for both teams, but technically the Heat could try to win a Game 7 on the road as a likely double digit underdog. We saw this series go seven games last year, and Boston won 100-96 here in this building in Game 7. Boston has gone under in five of their last six at Miami. This might be the type of game where the winning team doesn't even score 100 points." We are calling for history to repeat itself in Game 7 of the ECF. |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. We've seen some big money moving in on the under in Game 6. This might as well be elimination game for both teams, but technically the Heat could try to win a Game 7 on the road as a likely double digit underdog. We saw this series go seven games last year, and Boston won 100-96 here in this building in Game 7. Boston has gone under in five of their last six at Miami. This might be the type of game where the winning team doesn't even score 100 points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Under. Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was a high scoring affair, and because of that the total for Game 2 is five points higher than it was in Game 1. The series opener saw Denver dominate the first half, but the Lakers made adjustments that allowed them to come storming back. When they stuck Rui Hachimura on the Joker, the REAL MVP was held to just 3 points on 0-of-2 shooting in the 4th quarter. Don't be surprised if things tighten up in Game 2, and keep in mind that both teams shot better than 54 percent from the field when both teams are averaging under 50 percent in these playoffs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. The Lakers could suffer a let down here off a big win over the Warriors in Game 6 in LA. This is Denver, probably the toughest place to play in the league. The home team won all four meetings in the regular season series. While the Lakers are coming off a high scoring series versus Golden State, and Denver is coming off a high scoring series versus Phoenix, this matchup features two teams that are ranked above average in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets ranked near the bottom of the league in pace of play. The under is 8-3 in the Nuggets last 11 home games, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven off a double digit win. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. So I am going to focus on Devin Booker here. He shot 79 percent from the field in the two games in Phoenix, scoring over 80 points. Of course the total went over in both Games 3 & 4. Booker cooled off in Game 5 in Denver, shooting just 42 percent from the field. Asking him to make 4 out of every 5 shots here in Game 6 doesn't seem realistic to me. These teams went under in two of three regular season meetings, with the exception being a 128-125 overtime win for the Nuggets at Phoenix. This number appears to be inflated for an elimination game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Suns are back in this series after Devin Booker shot out the lights in Game 3. He scored 47 points on 20-of-25 shooting. I don't like his chances of hitting almost every shot he makes here in Game 4. After the total went over in the series opener, we saw Denver hold the Suns to just 87 points in Game 2. I think we see another low scoring defensive battle here in this pivotal Game 4. The under is 9-4-2 in the Nuggets last 15 Conference Semifinals games, and they should bring the defensive intensity here tonight. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5 | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. So the first half total has gone under in five of six games, and now the bookmakers have made the adjustment. I don't think they have adjusted enough for a Game 7 though. There have been 15 Game 7s played in the NBA since 2018. The combined total fell short of 200 in 12 of those games. Only one of those 15 games went over the listed total for this game, when the Clippers beat the Mavericks 126-111 in 2021. We saw 109 points scored in the first half of Game 6, and I can't see them scoring more than that here in a Game 7. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. So when it was announced that De'Aaron Fox was going to play despite a broken finger, the Warriors went from -4 in Game 5 to -1.5. I said that he could be a liability if he wasn't at 100 percent. He appeared to play pretty well, but his 24 points was a series low. He shot a series low 36 percent from the field and committed a series high six turnovers. I don't see it getting any better for the Kings here in Game 6. The Warriors won four series in last year's playoffs, and in their four series clinching wins the total went under in all four. The average combined total in those games was 207.5. I'll take the Dubs to win and the game to go under the total. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 222.5 | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. I bet the under in Game 1 of this series, and I said the following before the game: “Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games.” With Minnesota facing elimination once again, don't be surprised if Game 5 in Denver looks a lot like Game 4 in Minnesota. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Under. I bet the under in Game 1 of this series, and I said the following before the game: “Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games.” We have since seen Game 2 and Game 3 go over the total, but with the Wolves facing elimination in Game 4, I expect to see more of a defensive battle here. The under is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 overall, and the Timberwolves have gone under in 12 of their last 17 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-19-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5 | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. I had the under in Game 1 and here is what I said prior to the game: "Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games." I expect more of the same here in Game 2. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 214.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. I had the under in Game 1 and here is what I said prior to the game: "The Cleveland Cavs owned the #1 defense in the NBA during the regular season, and they host a New York Knickerbockers team that was also above average defensively. When these teams played in December, it was one of the lowest scoring games all year. The Knicks won 92-81 at The Garden, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another defensive clinic here in Cleveland in Game 1. The under is 6-1 in the Knicks last seven Conference Quarterfinals games, and the Cavs have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games. The under is 6-2 in the Cavaliers last eight Conference Quarterfinals games." I am expecting more of the same in Game 2. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. |
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04-16-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | 80-109 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5 | 130-117 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Miami Heat owned the #1 scoring defense in the NBA this season, and in their play-in game against the Knicks they allowed just 91 points in a home win over Chicago. The Bulls were held to a single point in the last 3:47 of the game. The Bucks have failed to reach the total in five straight first round playoff games, and we should expect points to be hard to come by in Game 1 in Milwaukee. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-15-23 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Cleveland Cavs owned the #1 defense in the NBA during the regular season, and they host a New York Knickerbockers team that was also above average defensively. When these teams played in December, it was one of the lowest scoring games all year. The Knicks won 92-81 at The Garden, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another defensive clinic here in Cleveland in Game 1. The under is 6-1 in the Knicks last seven Conference Quarterfinals games, and the Cavs have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games. The under is 6-2 in the Cavaliers last eight Conference Quarterfinals games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-14-23 | Thunder v. Wolves UNDER 229 | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Under. So this number opened at 227 and has since been bet up. I will fade the public here with a play on the under, and here is why: First off the Wolves have averaged well below 117 points per game in their last five overall. They only barely scored 100 in regulation and OT at LA in their last game. Minnesota won the last meeting at Oklahoma City in December by a score of 112-110. Four of the last five head to head meetings have gone under. The Thunder have failed to reach the total in four of their last five road games, and the under is 12-4 in the Wolves last 16 home games. I don't expect to see any easy buckets in an elimination game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 227 | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The last time these teams played the total went over the number in a 130-128 Miami win. This game was the second of a two game series in Miami, which is somewhat of an anomaly. The under had cashed in eight of the previous nine head to head meetings. Miami owns the 2nd best scoring defense in the NBA, one of only two teams to allow less than 110 points per game. Last year only one of six Play-in games saw more than 225 combined points. The under is 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in Miami. I will bet on the defense to be the story here in Miami. The Hawks played in seven post-season games last year, and only one of those saw more than 225 combined points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-31-23 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. This is a big game in Minnesota tonight as the Lakers and the T-Wolves battle for a play-in spot. Just a half game separates these teams, and the winner will be closer to clinching home court in the play-in while the loser will be in danger of dropping out entirely. The total of 232.5 looks a little high, as eight of the last 10 meetings have fallen short of that number. They have gone under in each of the last five meetings in Minnesota, and the under is 6-0 in the last six meetings overall. The under is 9-3-1 in the Timberwolves last 13 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-23-23 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 232.5 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Clippers just lost 101-100 to Oklahoma City on Monday, and this is a spot where I usually look to take the team with revenge in the second game of a two game series. In this spot though I am focused on the total. LA didn't just lose the game, they lost Paul George to a knee injury that will keep him out for several weeks. Despite the 201 total points scored in the first game, and the fact that these teams haven't combined to score 230 points in any of the last 10 meetings, we see the total listed over 230. The under is 30-10 in the Clippers last 40 home games, and they have gone under in seven of their last nine home games versus the Thunder. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-17-23 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 231.5 | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Grizzlies come into San Antonio as a road favorite, but the Spurs have been pretty competitive of late. They are 4-4 straight up in their last eight overall, and they have scored 120+ points in three of their last four overall. The Grizzlies are coming off a 138-119 loss at Miami, and they have gone over in three straight versus the Spurs. The total in this game is lower than it was in each of the last five meetings between these teams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. So the Raptors come in as winners of six of their last eight overall, and they have been getting it done with their defense. Toronto has held their last five opponents well below the NBA average in points per game (110) giving up just 107 ppg during that span. They haven't been scoring though, averaging just over 103 points per game on offense. Denver can play defense as well, and I expect these teams to play hard here tonight. The total of 227.5 is far higher than it has been in any of the last 10 head to head meetings. The last time Toronto played at Denver (March last year) the total was just 221.5. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-01-23 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 225.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Celtics have allowed a whopping 118.8 points per game over their last five overall. That is out of character for this team though, and they still rank among the top teams in the NBA in opponents scoring average. They host the Cavs, who currently rank #1 in the NBA in points allowed (106.5PPG). These teams went over in each of the last two meetings, but both those games went to overtime. The listed total hasn't been higher than 220 in any of the previous five meetings. I expect both teams to bring it on defense here in a battle between two of the top teams in the East. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-28-23 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. The Clippers have gone over the total in four straight games, but that is out of character for this team. For the first half of the season they ranked near the bottom of the league in scoring, and one of the top team in opponent scoring. We have a high total in tonight's home game against the Timberwolves, and I expect to see some regression to the mean. The under is 22-7 in the Clippers last 29 home games, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven home games against Minnesota. The number in tonight's game is almost 10 points higher than it was in the last meeting back in January. Neither of these teams scored 100 in the last meeting in LA back in December. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-24-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 232.5 | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. Six of nine games went under the total in the first day back from the All Star break. One of those was the Thunder losing 120-119 at Utah in overtime. Both teams scored just 106 points in regulation. The Thunder play the second game of a back to back in Phoenix, and the Suns have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven overall. The total of 232.5 is far higher than it has been in any of the previous 10 head to head meetings. None of those games saw a number as high as 225. These two teams haven't scored a combined 230 points in any of the previous four head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-28-23 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 232.5 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Mavs won in Phoenix without Luka, by a score of 98-85, and we might expect another low score without their leading scorer here in Utah. The Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. They are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win. The under is 14-6 in the Jazz last 20 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. These teams have failed to reach the total in each of the last four head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-04-23 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 235 | 112-121 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Nets come into Chicago as winners of 12 straight overall. They have scored an average of 122 points in their last five games overall. The bookmakers have set the total at a high number, but I am not sure it's high enough. It's still lower than the number of 238 in the Nets last visit to Chicago, and that game went over with Brooklyn winning 138-112. The Bulls come in scoring 121 points per game in their last five overall, unfortunately for them though they have allowed opponents to average 122 points during that span. The Bulls have gone over in five of their last six overall, and six of their last eight at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-23-22 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 226.5 | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Bucks come into Brooklyn averaging over 117 points per game in their last five overall, and the Nets have scored 126 points per game during that span. Neither team has been great defensively of late, each allowing 116.6 points per game in their last five. The last time the Bucks played in Brooklyn the betting total was set at 243. The opening number for tonight's game is lower than it was in each of the past five head to head meetings. I expect both teams to score plenty here in this marquee game two days before Christmas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-22 | Bucks v. Pelicans OVER 227.5 | 128-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Bucks have the best record in the NBA, and they will take on the Pelicans in New Orleans Monday. The Pelicans are just a game back of Memphis for first place in the West. You know both teams will be up for this game, and history tells us that it should be a high scoring affair. The home team has won five of the last six head to head, and the over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. The Pelicans have gone over in four of their last five overall, and the over is 17-4 in their last 21 versus teams with a winning record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 225.5 | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Nuggets have scored an average of 115 points per game this season, while the Blazers are averaging just 110 points per game. These teams just played two weeks ago and the Blazers won 135-110. The total went way over the number, and the over is now 8-2 in the last 10 head to head meetings. The over is 12-4 in the Nuggets last 16 games following an ATS loss, and they have gone over in 10 of their last 14 at Portland. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-06-22 | Lakers v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. So the Lakers are rolling again coming into Cleveland as winners of eight of their last 10 overall. They have averaged 130 points per game in their last five, but they will be taking on the #1 scoring defense in the NBA here in Cleveland. History suggests we could see a lower scoring battle tonight. The Cavs have gone under five straight overall, and they have held opponents to just 93 points per game during that span. The under is 5-0 in their last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Celtics have gone over the total in 10 of 16 games so far this season. That comes as no surprise to me. Here is what I said prior to their season opener: "The Celtics ranked first in the NBA in opponents scoring average last season, but don't expect this year's squad to be a defensive juggernaut. The absence of a rim protector changes everything, and if the pre-season is any indication they may be playing at a much faster pace this season. They sent Daniel Theis to the Pacers, and Robert Williams starts the season sidelined by a knee injury. While Boston finished last season as the best scoring defense, they certainly didn't start that way. They allowed an average of 120 points per game in their first seven games of the season." The over is 7-2 in the Pelicans last nine games following a straight up win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-22 | Pistons v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Clippers rank dead last in the NBA in scoring, and still they are a 9-point home favorite here against the Pistons. Dallas ranks first in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing 106.3 points per game. The Clippers aren't far behind allowing just 106.9 points per game. The under is 6-1 in the Clippers last seven home games, and they have gone under in seven of their last nine versus Detroit. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-22 | Nets v. Blazers UNDER 220.5 | 109-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Nets are coming off a 153-121 loss at Sacramento, after going under in six straight before that. This looks like a let down spot here in Portland, facing a Blazers team that ranks sixth in the NBA in opponent's scoring. Portland ranks in the bottom 10 in the NBA in scoring, averaging fewer than 110 points per game. Don't expect a shootout here in Portland. The under is 9-4 in the Nets last 13 games following a straight up loss, and the under is 12-4-2 in the Trail Blazers last 18 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-16-22 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 232.5 | 126-101 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Celtics have gone over the total in 10 of 15 games so far this season. That comes as no surprise to me. Here is what I said prior to their season opener: "The Celtics ranked first in the NBA in opponents scoring average last season, but don't expect this year's squad to be a defensive juggernaut. The absence of a rim protector changes everything, and if the pre-season is any indication they may be playing at a much faster pace this season. They sent Daniel Theis to the Pacers, and Robert Williams starts the season sidelined by a knee injury. While Boston finished last season as the best scoring defense, they certainly didn't start that way. They allowed an average of 120 points per game in their first seven games of the season." The over is 9-3 in the Hawks last 12 overall. While this is a big number, I just don't think the books can set it high enough. I expect both teams to score 115+. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-14-22 | Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5 | 122-106 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Clippers have already played the Rockets twice this season, and both of those games were low scoring. LA ranks dead last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just 103 points per game. The fact that they still have a decent record also indicates that they have one of the league's top defenses. The under is 14-3 in Clippers last 17 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven in Houston. This number looks a little inflated. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 228.5 | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Over. The Warriors snapped a five game losing streak with a home win over the Sacramento Kings, but there remains plenty of reason for concern in Golden State. Only the San Antonio Spurs are allowing more points per game than the Warriors, who's opponents are averaging more than 120 points per game. The good news is that Steph Curry scored 47 points and shot 7-of-12 from beyond the arc in the win over the Kings. We could see another shootout here against the Cavs. The over is 18-7-1 in the Cavaliers last 26 road games, and the Warriors have gone over in four of their last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-11-22 | Raptors v. Thunder OVER 220.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a free play on Over. The Raptors haven't missed Pascal Siakam, coming off a 116-109 win over Houston. Fred Van Flleet scored 32 points and shot 7-of-16 from beyond the arc. Toronto has gone over in five of their last six in Oklahoma City, and the over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings. The Thunder have gone over in four straight home games. We should both teams run and gun here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-11-22 | Bucks v. Spurs OVER 220.5 | 93-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Bucks are coming off a 136-132 double overtime win over Oklahoma State. They are banged up with Giannis, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton all out of the lineup. The backups played well, shooting over 47 percent from the field, and 47 percent from beyond the arc against the Thunder. They have a history of playing high scoring games against the Spurs. The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings, and the total for this game is lower than it was in the last eight meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs OVER 221 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Jazz were supposed to be in contention for a lottery pick this season, but after winning six of their first eight games the betting markets are slow to react. Utah comes into Dallas averaging 118 points per game, while the Mavs are scoring roughly the same. Utah is allowing opponents to average 114 points per game, and the Mavs are allowing opponents to average over 110 points per game. Historical trends for the Jazz point to the under, but the Rudy Gobert Era is over in Utah. These Jazz have gone over (221) in six of eight games, while the Mavs have gone over in five straight. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-30-22 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 223 | 94-112 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. Here is what I said prior to the Celtics season opener versus Philly: "The Celtics ranked first in the NBA in opponents scoring average last season, but don't expect this year's squad to be a defensive juggernaut. The absence of a rim protector changes everything, and if the pre-season is any indication they may be playing at a much faster pace this season. They sent Daniel Theis to the Pacers, and Robert Williams starts the season sidelined by a knee injury. While Boston finished last season as the best scoring defense, they certainly didn't start that way. They allowed an average of 120 points per game in their first seven games of the season." They have since gone over in four of their five games. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last five versus a team with a winning straight up record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-28-22 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 218.5 | 132-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. Here is what I said prior to the Celtics season opener versus Philly: "The Celtics ranked first in the NBA in opponents scoring average last season, but don't expect this year's squad to be a defensive juggernaut. The absence of a rim protector changes everything, and if the pre-season is any indication they may be playing at a much faster pace this season. They sent Daniel Theis to the Pacers, and Robert Williams starts the season sidelined by a knee injury. While Boston finished last season as the best scoring defense, they certainly didn't start that way. They allowed an average of 120 points per game in their first seven games of the season." They have since gone over in three of their four games. The over is 15-5-1 in Cavaliers last 21 road games, and they have gone over in 13 of their last 19 overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-21-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 217 | 111-104 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Celtics ranked first in the NBA in opponents scoring average last season, but don't expect this year's squad to be a defensive juggernaut. The absence of a rim protector changes everything, and if the pre-season is any indication they may be playing at a much faster pace this season. They sent Daniel Theis to the Pacers, and Robert Williams starts the season sidelined by a knee injury. While Boston finished last season as the best scoring defense, they certainly didn't start that way. They allowed an average of 120 points per game in their first seven games of the season. They went well over the number in their season opener versus Philly, and this number looks a little low all things considered. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings OVER 226 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Blazers lost 124-121 to the Sacramento Kings in their season opener last year, and they play the Kings in their first game of the 2022 season. The Kings finished dead last in the NBA in opponent's scoring average last year, and Portland wasn't far behind. These teams have gone over in four of the last five head to head meetings, and the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Sacramento was 4-0 in the pre-season averaging 117 points per game. We should expect a lot more offense than defense here in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 214.5 | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Celtics ranked first in the NBA in opponents scoring average last season, but don't expect this year's squad to be a defensive juggernaut. The absence of a rim protector changes everything, and if the pre-season is any indication they may be playing at a much faster pace this season. They sent Daniel Theis to the Pacers, and Robert Williams starts the season sidelined by a knee injury. While Boston finished last season as the best scoring defense, they certainly didn't start that way. They allowed an average of 120 points per game in their first seven games of the season. Joel Embiid should feast here in the season opener, and both teams should do plenty of scoring. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Celtics were dominant in the first half of Game 2, holding Miami to just 45 points. This comes after the Heat held Boston to just 45 points in the second half of Game 1. I am expecting both teams to bring their A-game on defense here in a pivotal Game 3 at the Garden. The Heat have failed to reach the total in four of their last five when coming off a loss, and the under is 9-4 in their last 13 overall. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games, and the under is 4-1 in their last five playoff games as a favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 213.5 | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The Mavs were destined to suffer a let down after their epic Game 7 win over Phoenix, and sure enough they came out and shot just 36% from the field scoring only 87 points. They were 11-of-48 from beyond the arc, and it killed them. They will need to be more selective here in Game 2, and I would expect them to be far more competitive. The over is 8-3 in Mavericks last 11 road games, and they have gone over in 12 of their last 17 versus Golden State. The Mavs have won seven of the last 10 head to head meetings versus Golden State, scoring an average of 123 points in those games. The over is 7-3 in the Warriors last 10 games following a straight up win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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04-05-22 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 234.5 | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Spurs come into Denver as winners of six of their last seven overall, and given the high stakes with just a few games to go in the regular season this might as well be a playoff game. Denver is just a half game up on Utah in the Northwest, and the Spurs are just two games up on the Lakers for the final play-in spot. San Antonio has played solid defense during a five game stretch, allowing an average of just 107.6 points. The total for tonight's game is 10+ points higher than it was in any of the last 10 head to head meetings. The under is 19-9-2 in Spurs last 30 games as a road underdog, and they have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 at Denver. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-22-22 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 228 | 117-111 | Push | 0 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Hawks are currently sitting in the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference, which has them playing a play-in game to advance to the playoffs. They are only 2.5 games back of 8th place Brooklyn, and if they could move up a few spots then at least their play-in game would be in Atlanta. They will take on the Knicks in New York Tuesday, and the Knicks rank 27th in the NBA averaging just 106 points per game. The under is 5-1 in the Hawks last six road games, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight overall. The under is 5-1 in the Knicks last six games playing on 1 days rest. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings, and the total for tonight's game is higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-20-22 | Team Durant v. Team LeBron UNDER 325 | 160-163 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
This line opened at 318.5 ... already pretty high. They scored 320 last year, and less than that in two of the previous three years. Nobody cares, everyone is betting the over and there is no end in sight. I can't help but get in at 325 an hr before game time. FADE THE MOVE! |
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01-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218.5 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. While the Warriors defense has been stellar this season, they will be without their best defensive player (Draymond Green) when they play at Memphis tonight. This will be the second game back for Klay Thompson, and a showcase of Steph Curry versus Ja Morant. These teams have gone under the total in seven of the last nine head to head meetings, but tonight's total is significantly lower than it was in eight of the last nine meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-27-21 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 212 | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Miami Heat rank 1st in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average, and the Bulls aren't far behind. For that reason the total is pretty low here, but it is still higher than the number in three of the last four head to head meetings between these teams. The under is 6-1 in the Bulls last seven games as a home underdog, and they have failed to reach the total in 13 of their last 16 as a dog. The under is 20-6 in the Bulls last 26 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 221.5 | 108-120 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. I bet the under in the Clippers last game, a 106-92 win over the Spurs. Here is what I said prior to tip off: "The LA Clippers have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. They come into tonight's home game against the Spurs ranked 5th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing 103.3 points per game. That would be good enough to rank 1st in the NBA last season. The under is 6-1-1 in Spurs last eight road games, and they have gone under in five of their last six when coming off a loss. The Clippers scored just 90 points in a home loss to Chicago in their last game, and the under is 4-1 in their last five when coming off a loss." The Clippers have failed to reach the total in four of their last five versus Memphis. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-21 | Kings v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. After losing 99-96 at home to Phoenix in their last game, it seems rather optimistic to have the total set over 220 for a home game against the Sacramento Kings. The under is 11-4-1 in Kings last 16 road games, and the Kings have failed to reach the total in 35 of their last 51 overall. The under is 7-1 in the Timberwolves last eight home games, and they have failed to reach the total in 13 of their last 18 overall. Minnesota is only averaging 103 points per game this season (23rd). GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-16-21 | Spurs v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The LA Clippers have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. They come into tonight's home game against the Spurs ranked 5th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average allowing 103.3 points per game. That would be good enough to rank 1st in the NBA last season. The under is 6-1-1 in Spurs last eight road games, and they have gone under in five of their last six when coming off a loss. The Clippers scored just 90 points in a home loss to Chicago in their last game, and the under is 4-1 in their last five when coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 217 | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
8* |
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11-14-21 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 224.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The Charlotte Hornets have won back to back games, but they rank dead last in the NBA allowing 116 points per game this season. Golden State ranks first in the NBA in scoring, averaging over 116 points per game. The Warriors come in as winners of seven straight, with an overall record of 11-1. The over is 4-1 in Hornets last five home games, and the over is 3-1 in the Warriors last four overall. Don't be surprised to see a high score in a game between two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies OVER 228.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. This game features the highest total on tonight's NBA card, but there is a good reason for that. Memphis and Charlotte rank 29th and 30th respectively in opponents scoring, and both these teams can score more than their share of points. In fact Charlotte ranks 2nd in the NBA averaging over 114 points per game. The Hornets have gone over in five of their last six overall, and the over is 4-0 in their last five games at Memphis. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-21 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 211.5 | 102-89 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The one take away from the early season NBA games is that scoring in general is down as the officials have been calling a lot fewer fouls, giving defenders a significant advantage in comparison to the way the game has been called in recent seasons. The Spurs and the Magic are doing their part to keep scoring up, by refusing to play defense. They are both allowing roughly 110 points per game, well above the league average. These two teams have gone over in six of the last seven meetings, and the over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in Orlando. The over is 9-2 in the Magic last 11 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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