Cappers Sports Picks

Hey folks, it's that time again,another Saturday slate in the WNBA where the spotlight hits a couple of heavyweights going toe-to-toe. We're zeroing in on the Minnesota Lynx visiting the Las Vegas Aces, and after digging through the numbers, trends, and matchup quirks, my best read is leaning toward the under on the total. These aren't your average high-octane shootouts; when these two elite squads clash, things tend to grind into a defensive chess match that keeps the scoreboard from lighting up like a Vegas slot machine.

Let's start with the big-picture trends. Minnesota comes in scorching at 10-2 overall, boasting one of the league's top net ratings and holding opponents to a stingy 78.2 points per game,that's elite territory. The Lynx are also sitting pretty on a multi-game winning streak, with recent defensive masterclasses like limiting strong opponents to the low 70s and mid-80s. On the flip side, Las Vegas sits at 9-3, averaging 91.4 points themselves but allowing 85.8 on the other end. When you blend two top-tier defensive units like this, history whispers (and recent seasons back it up) that unders cash at a solid clip,think around 55-60% in games featuring top defensive efficiency sides facing each other.

Dig a little deeper into the math that makes this pop. The Lynx are posting a ridiculous 55.7% effective field goal percentage (tops in the league) while forcing opponents into a lowly 44.1% eFG on the defensive end. Pair that with their 1.164 shooting efficiency and strong rebounding (45.8 total boards per game, ranked near the top), and you've got a formula for controlling tempo: Pace × (Defensive Efficiency Gap) + Rebound Margin Adjustment. Minnesota's +12.9 scoring margin isn't just pretty—it's built on suffocating opponents inside (holding them to just 30.7 paint points) and limiting second-chance opportunities through elite rebounding margins. Las Vegas counters with their own 54.6% eFG and 1.138 efficiency, but head-to-head style clashes between these clubs have historically produced combined totals dipping below league averages by 4-6 points when both emphasize half-court execution over transition mayhem.

Recent form adds fuel to the fire. Minnesota's last handful of games show them winning while keeping totals in check more often than not,efficient offense meeting stout D. The Aces have been rolling too (strong recent stretches), but their home games against quality foes tend to tighten up: lower assist-to-turnover ratios under pressure and fewer easy fast-break buckets (allowing just 8.4 opponent fastbreak points per game). Factor in the physicality—both teams rank high in blocks and steals—and you get fewer "wide-open" looks that inflate scores. It's the kind of spot where the over-under line might flirt with 173-175, but the data screams regression toward a tighter 160-170 range.

Don't get me wrong, there's talent here that can erupt—A'ja Wilson doing her thing, Olivia Miles running the show for the Lynx,but that's exactly why I love this angle. Elite-vs-elite often means better contesting, smarter rotations, and fewer mistakes, not a track meet. It's like watching two master chefs in the kitchen: plenty of skill, but the result is controlled precision rather than chaos. I've been following these trends long enough to know that betting with the defensive identity in these prime matchups has treated sharp bettors kindly over the years.

The rest of the slate has its own noise,Fever-Sun could get funky with the records, and Wings-Fire might have more variance,but this Lynx-Aces battle feels like the cleanest spot for the under to shine.

I've been following this WNBA season pretty closely, and these early Commissioner's Cup games have a way of delivering some sneaky betting edges. Tonight, the Dallas Wings head into Target Center to face the Minnesota Lynx, and man, it just has that classic "defense versus offense" vibe written all over it. After poking around the trends, digging up some historical notes, and running a few numbers in my head, I'm feeling really good about the Under sitting around 171.5 to 172. It's one of those spots where the story the stats tell just clicks.

Minnesota's been an absolute defensive beast this year. At 9-2 overall, they're allowing a league-low 78.4 points per game , that's noticeably better than everyone else. At home, they've been even tougher, clamping down and forcing teams into tough shots while racking up steals and deflections. The Lynx love slowing things down, sitting near the bottom of the league in pace and grinding out half-court possessions where their length really shows up.

Dallas comes in at 7-3 and can flat-out score, averaging 89.4 points per game (third in the league) with a bunch of weapons creating easy looks. But road games against elite defenses like this often turn into slogfests, especially when the home team dictates the tempo. Think back to their May 14 matchup , a gritty 90-86 Lynx win that never really got out of the 170s. Minnesota shot over 60% that night, yet Dallas hovered around 46%, and the total stayed contained. History shows these Lynx home games against Dallas tend to stay on the lower side.

Here's where it gets fun for the math folks. That 171.5 -172 line implies a certain scoring expectation, but adjusting for the matchup changes the picture. Minnesota's defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) is elite in the mid-90s range, and Dallas's offense typically cools off by 3-5 points on the road in these tougher environments. If you think about scoring through a simple Poisson lens , basically treating each team's points as somewhat independent events with some correlation , the Under starts looking like it has a 55-58% edge when you weigh in recent form: Minnesota riding a 7-game win streak, Dallas winning four straight but showing some vulnerabilities away from home.

Broader trends back it up too. Visiting teams going up against top-3 defenses have been hitting the Under in about 57% of games this season. Add in Minnesota holding opponents under 80 at Target Center on average, and the expected value calculation (EV = (P_Under × payout) - (P_Over × risk)) leans positive when the trends align like this. Even league-wide, unders are cashing around 50-52% in 2026, but they pop way more often in defensive home favorites exactly like this.

Of course, basketball's wild and unpredictable , Arike Ogunbowale could go off for 30+ again and make us all scratch our heads. That's the beauty (and occasional frustration) of the game. But overall, the combination of Minnesota's tempo control and Dallas's road inconsistencies just screams a game where points might dry up, particularly after halftime.

I'm honestly excited about this one because it feels like a spot where putting in the work on trends and numbers pays off. These are the kinds of plays that make betting rewarding/profitable when they hit.

I've been grinding these WNBA totals for years, and nights like this one feel like they were built for the sharp money to lean Under. The Seattle Storm roll into Las Vegas as one of the league's coldest offenses right now, sitting at a brutal 3-9 overall and putting up just 75.0 points per game (dead last in the league). They're shooting a miserable 40% from the field overall—that's not just bad, it's historically inefficient for a modern WNBA squad.

Factor in their recent form and the math gets even uglier. Over their last stretch, the Storm have been averaging around 65-66 points in several outings, failing to crack 73 in most of them. When you plug that into a basic efficiency equation like Points Per Possession × Expected Possessions, with Seattle's pace hovering in the low-to-mid 70s lately, you're looking at a ceiling that's tough to push past 78-80 even on a good night. Against a Las Vegas team that allows just 84.9 points per game at home and ranks near the top in defensive rating, that gap starts to feel like a chasm.

The Aces, meanwhile, sit at 7-3 and love controlling the tempo on their home floor at Michelob Ultra Arena. They've got that championship pedigree where they grind out wins rather than trading buckets in a track meet. Historical head-to-head data backs this up too, when these teams meet in Vegas, the pace often slows, and totals have a sneaky habit of staying disciplined, especially when the visitor is fighting uphill from the jump. Add in Seattle's current five-game skid and the natural variance that comes with road underdogs getting punched early: defenses tighten, shots get contested, and the scoreboard doesn't light up the way casual fans expect.

Here's where the numbers nerd in me lights up. If we estimate combined possessions around 78-82 (a conservative range given both clubs' tendencies), and apply realistic shooting efficiencies, say 42-45% eFG for the Aces on offense and closer to 38-40% for the struggling Storm, the expected total output lands comfortably south of 162. It's not rocket science, but the formula (Team A PPG Trend × Home Adjustment) + (Team B PPG Trend × Road Deflator) has been printing for unders in similar mismatch spots this season. Light humor intended: the Storm aren't exactly "shooting the lights out" lately... they're barely flickering.

Bottom line: This matchup has all the ingredients for a classic grind-it-out affair where the final score hovers in the mid-150s or lower. I'm riding the Under on the total around 163.5 with real conviction tonight. These are the spots where patience and trusting the trends separate the winners from the wishful thinkers. As always, shop your number, bet what fits your bankroll, and let's hope the basketball gods reward the patient side tonight.

Another Saturday slate in the WNBA and I'm zeroing in on what feels like one of the sharper totals plays out there. We're talking the Under in the Seattle Storm heading into Minnesota to face the Lynx at Target Center. These two sides just don't scream "fireworks" when they meet up, especially with Minnesota hosting and dictating the flow.

The Lynx have built one of the stingiest defenses in the league this year, holding opponents to just 79.4 points per game ,the best mark in the WNBA. They're not giving up easy looks, ranking near the top in rebounding and forcing turnovers while keeping the pace under control at home. They've won 8 of their first 10 games overall and sit atop the Western Conference for good reason, with a defensive rating that makes life miserable for struggling offenses.

Seattle, on the other hand, is scuffling along at 3-8 and putting up just 75.6 points per game , dead last in the league offensively. Their road splits are even rougher, shooting around 40% from the field and struggling mightily to generate second-chance points with one of the weaker rebounding units (around 31-32 boards per night). Throw in their three-point woes (hitting under 32% as a team) and you've got a visitor that's been stuck in low-scoring affairs more often than not this season.

Digging into the matchup trends, Storm-Lynx games have a history of staying disciplined on the glass and at the rim, particularly when Minnesota has home-court advantage. Recent form tells the same story: Seattle's road contests have leaned under in a bunch of spots against top defensive teams, while the Lynx have kept things tight at home, with unders cashing regularly against lower-output opponents. The combined efficiency numbers just don't add up to a track meet ,  we're looking at two squads whose styles point to a half-court battle where every possession matters and big runs are harder to come by.

Sure, basketball has its wild nights where the ball bounces funny and threes start raining, but when you stack up the defensive metrics, rebounding edges, and how these teams have performed in similar spots, this one has that classic "grind-it-out" vibe written all over it. I love these kinds of plays because they're built on real tendencies rather than hoping for chaos. Expect something in the mid-140s to low-150s if the trends hold ,  good, old-fashioned WNBA defense winning out.

I've been following these teams closely all season, and this spot jumps off the page as the cleanest totals lean today. Nothing overly fancy, just trusting the numbers and the way the game sets up. Let's see if the Lynx can clamp down and keep Seattle from finding any rhythm.

As always, bet responsibly, enjoy the games, and may your ticket hit.

NOTE:This Saturday's Seattle Storm versus Minnesota Lynx game tips off at 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM local in Minneapolis), making it a clear afternoon/matinee matchup on a day when most WNBA games usually start in the evening. That timing adds another solid layer of support to the Under we’re riding.

Afternoon starts in the WNBA often lead to slightly suppressed scoring because they disrupt the players’ normal routines , earlier wake-ups, non-standard prep windows, and less time to fully get into game rhythm. This frequently shows up as slower pace in the first half, more early turnovers, rustier shooting, and a heavier emphasis on half-court defense and rebounding battles rather than up-tempo scoring runs.

The Lynx already boast one of the league’s best defenses (holding teams to /79.4 PPG), and at home they excel at controlling tempo. Pair that with Seattle’s league-worst offense (just 75.6 PPG, poor road shooting around 40%, and weak rebounding), and you’ve got the perfect ingredients for a low-output grind. Historical and recent trends back this up: matinee games, especially involving defensive-minded home teams against struggling road offenses, have a strong lean toward the Under.

We’re not expecting a total blackout , basketball always has variance , but the combination of Minnesota’s defensive identity, Seattle’s offensive struggles, and the afternoon timing disruption makes this feel like a classic spot where the game stays in the 140s to low 150s. It’s the kind of controlled, old-school battle where stops and possessions matter more than highlight dunks.

This afternoon factor strengthens what was already a sharp totals play. The numbers and tendencies line up nicely here

There’s something satisfying about digging into the numbers and finding a spot where the math just feels right, even when the rest of the betting world might be chasing points. Tonight’s slate features two games, but the one that stands out for totals players is Golden State Valkyries heading into Target Center to face the Minnesota Lynx. The line sits around 164.5, and after poring over the early-season data, the Under emerges as the clearest edge.

Let’s start with what Minnesota brings to the table defensively. Through nine games, the Lynx are allowing just 78.9 points per game , the stingiest mark in the entire league. That’s not a small-sample fluke either. They’re holding opponents to 38% shooting from the field and under 29% from three, while forcing turnovers at a high rate. When you layer in their recent form, the trend gets even stronger: the total has gone Under in five of Minnesota’s last seven games, and they’ve been especially tough at home.

Golden State, for all their promise as an expansion squad sitting at 6-3, simply doesn’t light up scoreboards. They’re averaging around 85-86 points per game on the season, relying on a balanced but not explosive attack. In matchups against top defensive teams, that style tends to grind down into lower outputs. Historically, when these two franchises have crossed paths (including last season’s meetings), four of the last five have stayed Under the posted total, with combined scoring often dipping into the low-to-mid 150s.

Compare that to the other game on the card , Atlanta at Indiana. The Fever are putting up 91.8 points per night (second in the league), while the Dream sit much lower on both ends at roughly 84.8 scored and 79.1 allowed. That matchup has “Over 173.5” written all over it, with Indiana’s pace and offensive firepower pushing the numbers higher. It’s the classic contrast play: one game screams points, the other whispers caution.

What makes the Lynx-Valkyries spot particularly compelling is the pace and efficiency angle. Minnesota ranks near the top in defensive rating, and they control the glass and tempo better than most. Golden State’s road games this year have averaged closer to 163-164 combined points when facing strong defensive clubs. Throw in Minnesota’s 7-2 overall record and their ability to win low-scoring grinds, and you’ve got a recipe where both sides might have to work extra hard for every bucket.

I’ve always enjoyed these types of spots because they reward patience over flash. Basketball can feel like a points parade some nights, but when you’ve got a top-tier defense hosting a moderate-paced visitor, the math often tilts toward the Under. The Lynx aren’t just good on paper , they’re proving it by limiting teams to 79 or fewer in several recent wins. If Minnesota keeps forcing tough shots and Golden State struggles to find rhythm on the road, we could easily see a final score in the 78-82 range.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed in this league , a hot shooting night can flip the script in a hurry. But when you stack the season-long defensive rankings, recent Under trends, head-to-head tendencies, and home/road splits, this one has the feel of a disciplined, lower-scoring battle. I’m riding with the Under 164.5 tonight and feeling good about the numbers backing it up.

I’ve been grinding WNBA totals for years, and some nights just scream “low-scoring grind” before you even dig into the numbers. Tonight’s Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm matchup in Seattle feels like one of those evenings. With both teams scuffling offensively early in 2026, this one has all the makings of a rockfight that stays under the number.

Phoenix rolls in at 2-8, riding a brutal six-game losing streak. They’re putting up just 83.0 points per game while allowing 85.3 on the other end. That’s not exactly the high-octane attack Mercury fans were hoping for after last season’s deeper run. Their field goal percentage sits around 41.6%, and they’re not exactly lighting it up from deep at 32%. On the road, where they sit 1-4, those offensive struggles get magnified—especially against a Storm squad that’s shown some defensive bite at home.

Seattle, meanwhile, sits at 3-7 and ranks near the bottom in scoring at roughly 76-79 points per game. They’re not exactly setting the world on fire either, but they’ve been stout defensively in stretches, holding opponents in the mid-70s to low-80s at Climate Pledge Arena. The Storm’s rebounding and turnover margins have kept games tighter than the standings suggest, and playing at home gives them that extra edge in controlling tempo.

Historically, these two teams have delivered some surprisingly low outputs when they meet. In recent head-to-heads, we’ve seen final scores like 77-70, 89-77, and several games hovering in the 150-160 combined range rather than exploding upward. That trend lines up perfectly with the broader 2026 early-season pattern: unders have held strong in a decent chunk of games involving slower-paced, defensively-minded Western Conference clubs. League-wide, we’re seeing teams average around 160-165 total points in matchups like this, but when two bottom-tier offenses collide on the road for one of them, that number drops noticeably.

Dig a little deeper into the math, and it gets even more compelling. Phoenix is allowing opponents to shoot a shade under 43% from the field on average, while Seattle’s own offense ranks in the bottom third for efficiency. Factor in the pace, neither team ranks among the league’s fastest—and you’re looking at a game where possessions might crawl, especially if turnovers (both teams hover around 13-14 per contest) and missed threes start piling up. Seattle’s home defensive rating this year has been noticeably better than their road numbers, and Phoenix on the road this season? They’re surrendering points at a rate that would make any under bettor smile.

Don’t get me wrong, WNBA basketball can flip the script in a hurry with one hot shooting quarter. But when you stack the recent trends (Phoenix 1-4 away, Seattle capitalizing on home defensive stands), the historical head-to-head lean toward lower totals, and the pure scoring drought both clubs are in, this feels like a spot where the math favors patience over fireworks. I’m not here chasing overs in a matchup that’s averaged well below league norms lately.

If you’re firing on totals tonight, the Under in Phoenix-Seattle has my strongest lean. These games have a way of reminding us that sometimes the smartest bet is simply expecting two struggling offenses to make each other’s lives difficult. Play it responsibly, shop around for the best number, and let’s see if the grind pays off under the lights in Seattle.

There's something almost poetic about a matchup where one team is lighting up the scoreboard while the other is stuck in the mud, and right now the Connecticut Sun are sinking in quicksand on the offensive end. With the Sun sitting at a brutal 1-8 record and averaging just 74.7 points per game , dead last in the league by a healthy margin , this feels like the perfect spot to lean on the under, especially with the total hovering in that 167.5-169 range.

The numbers tell a compelling story here. The Sparks come in averaging 91.5 points per game on an impressive 50.3% shooting from the field, which ranks near the top of the league. They're efficient, they're sharing the ball with 20.8 assists per night, and they've got scoring punch. But here's where the math gets fun: even with that firepower, they've been allowing 96.0 points per game themselves. That defensive vulnerability meets a Sun team that's simply not built to exploit it right now. Connecticut is shooting a miserable 40.6% from the floor and 26.3% from three, while turning the ball over at a rate that doesn't create enough easy opportunities.

Look at the recent trends, and the under starts looking even smarter. The Sun have been involved in some of the league's lowest-scoring affairs this season. Their games are consistently dipping below league-average totals because their offense has been sputtering at a historic low for a modern WNBA team. Historically, when you pit a high-octane offense against a bottom-tier scoring squad like this, the total often comes in under when the weaker team simply can't keep up the pace. We're talking about a Sun roster that's averaging nearly 17 fewer points per game than the Sparks , that's not a small gap; that's a chasm.

Add in the pace angle. This isn't a running-and-gunning affair waiting to happen. The Sun rank toward the bottom in possessions and tempo, and they've shown a habit of grinding games into lower-scoring slugfests. Even if the Sparks push the tempo early, Connecticut's defensive rebounding (33.6 boards per game) and ability to slow things down could cap the ceiling. In similar mismatches over the past couple seasons, unders have hit at a strong clip when one team is this offensively challenged.

I'll admit it , there's a bit of dark humor in watching a team average under 75 points in today's WNBA. It's like showing up to a track meet with hiking boots on. But for bettors paying attention, that inefficiency is pure gold on the totals side. The Sparks might drop 85-90, but expecting the Sun to suddenly erupt for 80-plus feels like wishful thinking given their season-long trends.

This isn't about chasing overs in a flashy offense vs. weak defense spot. It's about respecting how poorly one side is executing on that end of the floor. When you crunch the per-game averages, the shooting percentages, and the recent flow of these teams' games, the under stands out as the sharpest play on the board today.

Try to shop around for the best number, and let's hope the Sun's offense stays true to its painfully low form

Early-season WNBA basketball has this chaotic charm where teams are still ironing out the kinks, and nights like tonight often turn into track meets as everyone hunts for rhythm. For my favorite totals play, I'm leaning Over in the Washington Mystics @ Dallas Wings (sitting around 170.5-171.5) at 8 PM ET.

Both clubs are popping up with identical scoring averages right now at 88.3 points per game through the first handful of contests. That's already flirting with these totals on paper, and when you layer in the home dynamics and how these offenses like to push, it starts looking even juicier. Dallas has been particularly fun to watch getting out in transition, putting up strong fast-break numbers early while generating efficient looks in the paint and converting at a solid clip from the field.

Washington matches that offensive output step for step so far, even if their three-point shooting has been a little frosty at times. They've shown they can hang in shootouts and put up numbers on the road, mixing veteran savvy with new pieces so they rarely go quiet on the offensive end. League-wide this young season, games featuring teams averaging right around 88 per side have pushed the Over at a healthy rate, especially at home where the hosting squad tends to play with a little extra zip to impress the hometown crowd.

Recent history between these two adds more fuel to the fire. Their matchups over the past couple seasons have frequently delivered combined totals north of 165-170, particularly when one is hosting and both get into an up-tempo groove. Home games in these cross-conference spots have trended higher in the opening weeks across the league, as defenses aren't quite synced up yet and familiar spacing on your own floor leads to easier buckets.

The Mystics bring size and rebounding that could lead to plenty of second-chance opportunities, while Dallas has the athleticism and shooting threats to stretch the floor and create mismatches all night. Neither side profiles as a lockdown defensive outfit right now, and the early returns show plenty of possessions with room to run.

Of course, basketball loves to throw curveballs , one of those nights where everyone clanks open looks could turn this into a defensive slog, and that's part of what keeps it from being a cake wake for bettors (and occasionally humbling for us bettors). But the way these teams have started the year, combined with the pace and home angles, has me thinking we're in for a night where the scoreboard gets a real workout.

Play smart, shop for best lines if possible , and let's hope the buckets keep falling all night long. . Let's ride the Over!

Tonight feels electric. The 2026 WNBA regular season finally tips off, and we’ve got three fresh-slate games on deck: Connecticut at New York, Washington at Toronto’s brand-new franchise, and Golden State at Seattle. As someone who’s spent way too many late nights digging into league trends, opening night always hits different for me. There’s hype, new rosters, and that little bit of unknown that makes the first games of the year feel alive. But when I look for the smartest bet on the board, I keep landing on the same spot, the under on the total in the Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty matchup.

Here’s why this one feels right to me. Historical opening-night trends across the WNBA have a pretty consistent story to tell: teams come out rusty after the long offseason, and scoring often stays lower than the betting public expects. Think about it, months without real competitive games, new teammates still learning each other’s tendencies, and coaches who dial up the defense extra hard when the spotlight’s on. That combination has led to unders hitting at a solid clip in first games of the season for years now. Higher turnovers, slower pace while everyone shakes off the cobwebs, and a league-wide emphasis on not giving up easy buckets in the opener all play into it. It’s not every single game, of course, but the pattern is reliable enough that it’s become one of my favorite early-season angles.

This Sun-Liberty contest lines up perfectly with that history. The total is sitting in that 159.5–161 range, which feels a touch optimistic for two teams that pride themselves on grinding out tough, low-possession battles. Connecticut has built its identity around defense for a long time, and even with roster turnover, that DNA doesn’t vanish overnight. New York’s been a top-tier defensive outfit in recent seasons too, and they’re coming in with their own share of adjustments. When you throw in the opening-night rust factor, players who’ve been training hard but haven’t faced live NBA-style pressure in forever, it’s easy to picture a game that drags a little in the half-court, with extra misses and forced passes.

I’ve watched this league long enough to know the public loves to chase overs on night one, dreaming of highlight-reel dunks and 90-point shootouts. But the numbers (and the eye test) keep reminding me that the first games are more about survival than fireworks. Add in the fact that these two clubs have a recent history of tight, physical affairs that don’t always explode offensively, and the under starts looking like the value side. Nothing screams “welcome back to basketball” quite like a bunch of pros looking a little out of sync while the crowd’s still figuring out the new chants.

Look, I’m not here to overhype anything, this is still basketball, and weird stuff happens. But if you’re hunting for a clean, trend-backed play on opening night that respects the historical lean toward unders, this is the one I’m riding. I genuinely get a kick out of spotting these edges because the WNBA rewards the patient bettor who pays attention to the little things like rest, rust, and roster chemistry. So yeah, I’m on the under in Sun-Liberty, and I’m interested financially to watch how it plays out. Here’s to a great season, everyone, may your bets be sharp and your nights full of good hoops.

 My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 25 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Indiana away games after scoring 85 points or more are 11-2 under.Indiana games after a game where a team made 50% of their shots or better are 8-1 under with the combined score of bothese trends on the low side of this Totals offering.

WNBA teams like Vegas where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in August or September games are 31-9 under since 2021 with a combined average of 158.4 ppg.

Play under

My WNBA basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 21 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My WNBA basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 21 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My WNBA basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 21 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Sparks are in a explosive run and gun rhythm and will force the cpable offense of the Fever in what Im betting will be an offensive fireworks display.

Los Angeles games off a road win are 9-1 over L/10 with a combined average of 178.5 ppg scored. ( They upset the Storm last time out as road dogs) Los Angeles games after scoring 90 points or more are 12-2 over with a combined average of 179.9 ppg scored. Los Angeles games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game are 6-0 OVER this season with a combined average of 177.2 ppg scored.

Road teams like the Sparks where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 over with a combined average of 174.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

WNBA teams like the LA Sparks where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - after 4 straight games where both teams scored 80 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or more are 25-4 under L/27 opportunities with a combined average of 171.1 ppg scored.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid to high 160s .

New York games after a close win by 3 points or less are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined aveerage of 174.4 ppg.

WNBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 over since 2016 with a combined average of 174.9 ppg scored.

Play over

the Sun offense has been playing well of late, averaging 83.6 ppg while, Dallas have score 80 or mopre points in 5 of theior L/6. Menawhile both Ds are sub average with Dallas showing particular softness allowing 93 plus points per game in their L/5 ovetall. Im expecting a wide open back forth game.

Dallas away games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 44% or more are 15-3 over since 2023 with a combined average of 188.3 ppg .

  Dallas away games versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game after 15+ games. are 32-11 over since 2023 with a combined average score of 177.1 ppg scored.

WNBA teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two average offensive teams (75-82 PPG), after a close loss by 3 points or less. are 25-6 over since 1997 with the average combined score clicking in at 171,1 ppg.

As the play offs inch closer teams are begging to pay more attention to defense.

WNBA teams entering Monday -Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots are 25-3 under since 1997 with a combined average of 155.6 ppg.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the low 160s range.

Las Vegas games against Eastern conference opponents are 29-11 under since with a cominbed average of 159.2 ppg scored.

Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots with a combined avrage of 155.6 ppg scored.

Play under

My projections have this combined score in the mid 150s.

Las Vegas games against Eastern conference opponents are 12-3 UNDER L/15 with a combined average of 156.3 ppg scored.

Washington games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 5-0 under this season with a combined average of 146.6 ppg scored.(Lost at Connecticut 56-67)

WNBA road teams like the Aces where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots are 25-2 under since 1997 with the average combined score clicking at 154.9 ppg.

Play under

My projections estimate a score in the low 160s, bug value here to the under based on my output algorithms.

Dallas games off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog is 5-0 under this season with a combined average of 153.8 ppg scored.

WNBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots are 24-2 under since 1997 with 154.9 ppg scored.

Play under

My rpojections estimate a combined score in the low 170s giving us a  nice edge on this totals offering.

WNBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 OVER since 1997 with a combined average score of 174.8 ppg scored.

Play over

WNBA Road teams like Washington where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less ) after 15+ games are 24-3 over since 1997 with a combined average of 174,8 ppg scored.

Play over

WNBA Road teams like chiago where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 over since 2016 with a combined average of 174.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

These teams played earlier  this season and combined for 193 points. Yes they are a little depleted injury wise since then, but the overall talent and  pace should be more than adequate between last years NBA finals participants.

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid to high 160s giving us an obvious edge on a over bet.

OVER

The Sparks play a one way run and gun type of hoops,  no attention to D, and all out offense. However,  in contrarian fashion the defending champs look to slow these teams down and get them out of their comfort zone is as evident by going 5-0 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 44% with a combined average of 157 ppg going on the board.

WNBA teams like LAS where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - after 4 straight games where both teams scored 80 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or more are 23-3 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 160.9 ppg scored.

WNBA teams like NYL where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - good offensive team - scoring 83+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 90 points or more in 2 straight games are 25-3 UNDER side 2021 with a combined average of 164.9 ppg scored.

Play under

Phoenix played avery physical tilt game versus Connecticut last night, and could be on tired legs and unable ti run and gun with the explosive Liberty. Damage control will be on the Mercury agenda in what Im betting will see a combined score on the low side of the totals offering. 

Play on the under 

My rejections estimate a score to reach the mid 160s giving us value with an over bet . 

My rejections estimate a score to reach the mid 160s giving us value with an over bet . 

Courtney Vandersloot, tore her ACL and Chicago is going to suffer because of it. Guard play was already an issue and now wow its should be a night mare scenario. The Libertuy Im betting put up mucho points here in what the linesmakers agree will be a blowout. Im more comfortable taking the total than laying the big lumber . 

NBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in June games are 21-3 over since 1997 with a combined average of 173.5 ppg scored.

NY Liberty Sandy Brondello games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game are 9-1 over with a combined average of 173.6 ppg scored.

Play over

After a frantic close win last time out vs Golden State I betting the Mercury will be in a letdown scenario and could easily come out with a lethargic effort that will effect this score towards the under and still playing without Alyssa Thomas their cohesiveness on offense will be tested by the Storm. Seattle as a favorite and Phoenix as an rdog have gone 8-1-1 to the Under this season so far.

The Dream are expected to have  Brittney Griner back in the lineup tonight after missing the last game  Seattle is expected to healthy tonight with all roster positions available to play. Im projecting both these sides to score in the low 80s and for this totla to be easily eclipsed. WNBA teams where the total is 159.5 or less - averaging 42 or more rebounds/game on the season, on Friday nights are 80-38 OVER for a 68% conversion rate .

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score closer to 159 giving us a almost a 2 possession edge to the under. Chicago games off a road loss against a division rival have stayed under in 11 of their L/12 overall.Chicago games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 12-2 to the under.

Play under

My. projections estimate a combined score of 168 so this is a under wager for me. 

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - after allowing 90 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 90 points or more are 21-4 UNDER with a combined average of 166.7. ppg scored.

Play under

Both these teams are off ugly losses to start their season, and will be ready tp bounce back here in aggressive fashion, which Im betting translates into a higher scoring back and forth affair.

Dallas games in a home game where where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points are 8-1 over dating back to last season with a combined average of 181.6 ppg.

Play over

 These teams have combined to  average 166  points in their last two meetings and my projections for this game estimate a combined score in around 167-168  range which gives us some strong value with a over wager.Over is 9-3 in Aces last 12 vs. Western Conference.

Play on the over

These teams have nothing really to play for as their spots in the play offs have essentially been decided. I expect  tweaking schemes and staying healthy will be key for both these sides, which projects to see a lower scoring game between two very tough defenses. 

Under is 5-0-1 in Sun last 6 overall.Under is 6-0 in Sun last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 7-1 in Sun last 8 Tuesday games.Under is 16-5-1 in Sun last 22 vs. Western Conference.

Under is 5-1 in Lynx last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-2 in Lynx last 7 overall.Under is 5-2 in Lynx last 7 Tuesday games.

Play under

Bet over the total in Dallas games as a home underdog -11-1 OVER L/12 with a 191.1 ppg scored.

The Sun  are now in top form and becoming more more explosive offensively. Seattle will have to provide some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court .  The Storm behind a top tier group are capable of putting up alot of production and that Im betting leads to a much higher scoring affair then the linebackers Totals  line suggests. 

Play over 

Dallas loves to play a run and gun type of hoops, and Im betting they force the Lynx to have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own and what I project to end  in being higher scoring affair that produces a  combined score that projects  up into the mid 170s.

Over is 17-5 in Wings last 22 games following a ATS win.Over is 19-7 in Wings last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 39-15-1 in Wings last 55 overall.Over is 5-2 in Wings last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-3 in Wings last 10 Friday games.Over is 36-17 in Wings last 53 home games.Over is 35-17-1 in Wings last 53 vs. Western Conference.

Over is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 overall.Over is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games following a straight up win.

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

Play over

Two time defending champs the Aces after a few lackluster performances have to get things going in a hurry if they want to achieve a threepeat. Tonight against a now healthy Dallas side that loves to run and gun, Im expecting a spirited affair that eclipses this total.

Over is 5-1-1 in Wings last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 17-4 in Wings last 21 games following a straight up win.Over is 21-6-1 in Wings last 28 vs. Western Conference.Over is 17-5-1 in Wings last 23 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 38-15-1 in Wings last 54 overall.Over is 18-8-1 in Wings last 27 games following a ATS loss. 

Over is 35-17 in Wings last 52 home games.Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the  OVER

This line is tainted thanks to the Lynx astounding shooting metrics when these teams met earlier this week .According to my projections this totals offering should be closer 162 giving us one of my bigger edges of the season with my totals selections.

Under is 8-3 in Lynx last 11 overall.Under is 7-3 in Lynx last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-1 in Lynx last 7 home games.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

Under is 5-1 in Aces last 6 Friday games.Under is 4-1 in Aces last 5 road games.Over is 7-2 in Aces last 9 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Aces last 7 overall.

Play under

The Atlanta Dream are still banged up, even with the rest - and will just be trying to slow this game down to compete with the explosive and mostly healthy Seattle Storm . This translates in a lower scoring grinding affair that fails to eclipse this total.

Under is 8-1 in Storm last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 4-1 in Storm last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Storm last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-1 in Dream last 5 overall.

Under is 4-1 in Dream last 5 games following a straight up loss. Under is 5-2 in Dream last 7 vs. Western Conference.Under is 16-7 in Dream last 23 home games.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play under

My projections estimate that the total attached to this game between the Sparks and Liberty is closer to the 162 mark thus giving us value with a under wager here as we have at least a one possession cushion in this spot play.

Under is 9-3-1 in Sparks last 13 games following a straight up loss.Under is 21-8 in Sparks last 29 home games.Under is 7-1-1 in Sparks last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Under is 5-0 in Liberty last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 5-1-1 in Liberty last 7 overall.

Under is 3-1-1 in Liberty last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 8-3 in Liberty last 11 road games.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play on the UNDER 

Offensively Minnesota has struggled of late scoring  just 68.5 points per game during their current two game losing streak. Meanwhile Atlanta has been an inconsistent offensive threat  this season averaging just 75 points on 40.8% shooting from the floor. Considering early start times, have teams starting slowly and a less cohesive event is highly likely according to my projections which give credence to a lower scoring affair. 

Under is 7-0 in Lynx last 7 overall.Under is 6-0 in Lynx last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-0 in Lynx last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-0 in Lynx last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-0 in Lynx last 5 home games.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 Wednesday games.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.

Under is 4-0 in Dream last 4 overall.Under is 4-0 in Dream last 4 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-1 in Dream last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-1 in Dream last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Dream last 6 Wednesday games.Under is 5-1 in Dream last 6 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-1 in Dream last 5 road games.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the 175 range giving us close to 2 possession edge for an over bet to cash. Dallas has issues with playing defensive ball and instead push forward with an all out offensive style of hoops.  Dallas lost a 100-84 decision in Phoenix on Wednesday, continuing to highlight their  soft defensive stance, and admirable offensive work. Both sides have injury woes with key players out, but their brand of lower tier hoops seems to not optimize their defensive capabilities or inabilities. I know the Los Angeles shot 41.1 percent from the floor and produced its second-worst scoring total of the season last time out, vs a top tier Lynx group, but now Im betting on positive regression after that frustrating effort vs a porous opponent. 

Over is 9-2 in Wings last 11 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-2 in Wings last 10 Saturday games.Over is 19-7 in Wings last 26 home games.Over is 18-7-1 in Wings last 26 games following a ATS loss.Over is 18-7-1 in Wings last 26 games following a straight up loss.Over is 35-15-1 in Wings last 51 overall.

Over is 5-1 in Sparks last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

Play over-Play as high as 172

My. projections estimate  that we will see a track meet take hold here tonight.  Ny number comes in at the 2nd highest projected  output of the season, of 177.5 which gives us close to full 2 possession edge on the offered number.

Winners of three in a row, Phoenix (12-10) is in a groove and ready to run and gun with a Catlin Clark led Fevers side that will have no problem pushing the action in response to what promises to be an aggressive opponent playing with momentum. Biggest problem for the Fever is a lackluster D, that the Mercurys sharp shooters will have no problem taking advantage of. 

The Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Indiana.

Over is 4-1 in Fever last 5 home games.

Over is 7-3 in Fever last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play over

All three meetings between these teams this season have been high scoring affairs and Im betting nothing changes here today. Scores of  104-96 /97-90/ 107-92 have all eclipsed the offered total. Rinse and repeat situation now on board. 

Over is 5-1-1 in Wings last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. 

Play on the over

The Sun are 1-1 against the Dream this season, dropping the last contest 78-74 on June 28 in Connecticut. Current values and play estimations make for an even lower scoring affair this afternoon. Last time out on Thursday night, the Connecticut Sun took a  78-73 road victory over the Minnesota Lynx and Im betting will continue to play a top tier brand of defensive hoops. 

My projections estimate a score in the mid 140s giving us a more than 2 possession advantage to the under. 

Play under 

Mystics just got smashed by DDs vs the Aces last time out and to me looked exhausted for whatever reason. Maybe being injury riddled and short handed has finally got the best of the best of this young group from DC.  That does not bode well for them having the legs needed today vs a motivated group of Lynx whoare off a humbling loss to Connecticut at home t after a fast start to their campaign. With that said, I expect the Mystics just wont have the tenacity needed to  play strong D in this spot and for the Lynx to highlight a more aggressive offensive posture in an attempt to alleviate the letdown of a key loss last time out .   This  Im betting will lead to a score that eclipses this totals offering. 

Play on the over

Mystics are banged up but still seem to find the depth to score, but their Achilles heel seem to  have shown some defensive break downs to top tier teams and thats what Im betting on tonight. Meanwhile, the Aces are more cohesive offensively on their own home floor and a expanded offensive outing, above their current metrics looks to be a high probability event giving credence to my over wager in this spot play situation. Vegas scored a 88-77 win in DC in their previous meeting in June, and a even higher offensive output by Vegas is projected here , with the Mystics frantically chasing. 

Play over

Minnesota usually reliable D failed them last time out vs the Liberty , after leading that game for a majority of the time they fell apart late for the loss. Now in bounce back mode, Im sure a complete defensive effort vs the Sun wlll be in order. Also this will be an emotional  hangover spot for the Lynx and Im betting they wont have the legs to run and gun and will be alot more subdued after their Commissioner Cup rematch against NYL. Meanwhile, the Suns, have not looked as explosive offensively as they did earlier this season, and have reverted to a more structured conservative  defensive type of hoops. This combination of observations and my power ranking head to head  projections estimate a combined score that will fail to eclipse this total. 

Play under

The teams have split their first two meetings this season. Dallas took a 107-92 in Phoenix on May 25, while the Mercury found a way past the Wings in a 97-90 double-overtime road victory on June 9. Im betting on more fast paced action and scoring here today in a rinse and repeat situation. 

Play over 

The Mystics are a hard working team with alot of chemistry and top tier coaching. Despite of a boatload  full of injuries they keep competing . In what the lines-makers expect to be a very close game here in LA, Im betting both these sides, ( Mystics/ Sparks) take  part in a back and forth affair that eclipses the total.  

Play on the OVER 

Minnesota came out flat  against Dallas this past  Thursday, but this is to good of a team to not get back into a groove quickly . Im betting on a shut down performance from their D , after a couple of uncharacteristically high scoring games and for a lower combined score to be a result of this tilt which in-turn gives us an edge on a under wager. 

Play under

My projections make this total closer to the 151 range which in turn according to my numbers give us a big edge for an under wager to cash here today as the Sun and Storm do battle in west coast WNBA early afternoon action. Under is 6-0 in Storm last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 5-0 in Sun last 5 vs. Western Conference.

Play under

These teams  the Sparks and the Liberty just played and the total combined score of the game eclipsed the total (173), and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today in the rematch.note: NYL have scored 90 points or more in 4 straight but have allowed 80 or more points in what have been wide open run and gun affairs.  

Over is 4-0 in Liberty last 4 home games. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in New York.

NEW YORK is 15-6 OVER  in home games after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 170.3 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 23-12 OVER  after allowing 75 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 172 ppg scored. 

Play over

My power rating projection system, estimate that the combined score of this contest will fall in the mid 150s range giving close to a 2 possession value wager to the under. WNBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent against opponent off 3 consecutive wins against division rivals are 60-31 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under