Cappers Sports Picks

The Milwaukee Bucks ranked 12th in pae and 13th in defensive rating  and  Chicago Bulls who rank 21 in pace in the league and 8th in Defensive ratings,    prepare to face off on back-to-back nights, beginning this Thursday.  Because of the divisional rivalry, and the difficulty of playing two games into two nights against the same side, both coaches will not be inclined to run and gun. The key to this game will be the Bucks ability to stop the downtown shots from beyond the arc, as they rank 2nd in the league in stopping  3s. The Bulls are dead last in the league shooting the trey, (30.7%) and do a majority of their work on the inside, where HC Kidd and company are well prepared to be physical. With that said, Im expecting a hard fought inside affair, that remains on the low side of the number.

CHICAGO is 14-4 UNDER L/18 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) with the average combined score clicking in at 198.8 ppg and is is 18-6 UNDER L/24 in road games vs. division opponents with an average of 194.9 ppg getting scored.Under is 20-7-2 in Bulls last 29 road games.Under is 9-4 in Bucks last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

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The Warriors enter this game having gone under in 4 straight games, thanks to a more concerted effort on defense, and some fatigue taking its toll on the Dubs. With this being their 6th straight road game, Im betting the Warriors won;t be in the mood to run and gun. Meanwhile, New Orleans has scored 96 points or less in 4 of their L/8, and will be weary of trying to out gun their explosive opponents tonight, which will see them put forward a more methodical effort, which will in turn result in a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total . 

GOLDEN STATE is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts over the last few seasons, 201.1 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games, with a combined average of 209.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 UNDER L/28 after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better , which happened last time out. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like New Orleans - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an upset win as a road underdog is 59-22 on the under for a 73% conversion rate.

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My own numbers make this total 136.6 so according to that data with have value with an under bet. 
DENVER is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers per game with the average combined score clicking in at 121.6 ppg. 
All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (DENVER) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 293-186 to the under for a longterm conversion rate of 61%. 

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The Golden State Warriors seem a little burned out of late, after playing at a high intensity level for a extended time. Their exhaustion has shown itslef in two of their L/3 games as they failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in two of those tilts. Now as they play a back to back tcontests against Minnesota on tired legs, I won;t be surprised by another muted effort .( The Dubs lost last night 110-89 at Memphis) I know the Wolves have struggled with D, this season, but because of Golden States take no prisoner style of offense, the totals are sometimes over exagerated by linesmakers playing to public bettors sentiments,  as is evident by a 66-38 under run in Warrior road games against lower tier defensive teams allowing 103 or more points per game, with the total combined score of 213.9 ppg on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is 18-8 UNDER L/26 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts with the the average combined score ringing in at  204.9 ppg. MINNESOTA in 20 games when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season have seen a combined average of 211.7 ppg get scored.GOLDEN STATE in their L/52 games off an upset loss as a road favorite, have seen a combined average of 215.1 ppg go on the scoreboard and in their L/54 as favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points have seen 218.4 ppg go on the scoreboard. 

Considering long term trends and current form and physical ineffecincies, and matchup descrepencies,  taking a low side stance on this Total makes for a solid bet in my humble opinion. 

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The Golden State Warriors lead the NBA in several offensive categories in road games, including points per game (115.2), field goal percentage (48.5) and assists (30.8) and I am betting on another offensive explosion here tonight. Meanwhile, Memphis has won 5 straight, and will have no choice but to reciprocate with some offense of their own, or be blown off the court  which  I am betting results in a total combined score that eclispes the number. It must be noted that the last time these teams met, only 199 total combined points were scored. But the caveat Im using here is based on a system, I implemented recently , that has had great results in beta form, and now its going live with this bet tonight. 

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to ( 209.5 - 210)  like the Grizzlies - after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less have cashed to the OVER 30 of the L/36 times for a powerful 83% conversion rate. 

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LONG BEACH ST is 15-3 UNDER L/18 in Saturday games with a combined average of 133 ppg scored. TEXAS is 13-2 UNDER L/15 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games with an average of 139.2 ppg get scored. College Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (LONG BEACH ST) - a lower tier team - shooting 42% or less with a defense of 45% or better on the season, in December games are a bankroll expanding 30-9 to the UNDER dating back to the 2011 campaign for a massive 80% conversion rate. 

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Gonzaga has been dominant to this point in the season, and despite of showing an explosive offense, have also be stingy on  defense allowing 64.6 ppg and 62.5 ppg as hosts. Here on their own home floor I expect Gonzaga slows down an inconsistent Washington side in what Im betting is a physical affair.

GONZAGA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 versus good shooting teams - making 45%  or more of their shots like Washington and are 11-3 UNDER against a 500 or better side with the combined average of both trends well below this total.GONZAGA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 in non-conference games with a combined average of 140.2 ppg getting scored.

College Hoops Home teams against the total Gonzaga - after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) like Washington have gone under  37 of the L/45 times for a 82% conversion rate for under bettors.

The LA Clippers pride themselves on being able to play a top tier defensive game especially at home. The Clippers own the leagues top defensive rating , ( Notates Defensive Rating for players and teams - points allowed per 100 posessions.

Tonight against the most explosive offensive team in the league you can bet the Clips will be out to slow down the Dubs and make this a more physical and methodical game than the Warriors prefer , which will result in a Total combined score that stays on the low side of the number. 

LA CLIPPERS are 56-34 UNDER L/90  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 with the average combined score clicking in at 214 ppg and are 20-8 UNDER L/28 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with the  total combined average of 202.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Clippers are also 12-2 on the under in home games against top tier sides with a win % of .700 or better with a combined average of just 202.2 ppg getting scored.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER L/10 in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game dating back to last season with a combined average of 201.8 ppg getting scored. Golden State in their L/265 games, against a top tier team with a .700 or better record have seen a combined average of 205 ppg go on the scoreboard. GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 UNDER L/17 after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games with an average of 2013.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Clippers/Warriors - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG the under is 58-18 dating back to the 2011 campaign.

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The Magic are 3-1 SU on their current five-game road trip, including Sunday's 98-92 victory at the Detroit Pistons.  Meanwhile, Washington is on tired legs as they ended a three game road trip last night, with a hard fought come from behind win vs Brooklyn. Washington struggles on D, on most nights and now exhausted won;t have a lot in the tank to slow down their young and motivated opponents. It must be noted that WASHINGTON is 14-4 OVER  after playing 2 consecutive road games dating back to last season, with a combined average of 215.8 ppg going on the scoreboard and is 17-7 OVER  when playing on back-to-back days with an average combined score of 208.9 ppg clicking on the the board. Meanwhile, Orlando despite of playing some lower scoring games of late , should be able to light up the scoreboard here tonight, in what could be a more wide open game than usual for the Magic.

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Atlanta's defense has been floundering of late, and a concern for the coaching staff,as the team does not have the guns to score in bunches ranking 27th in Off rating ,  as is evident by scoring more than 96 points only 3 times in their L/12 trips to the hardwood . Tonight , against a Thunder team that can run and gun with the best teams in the NBA, Im betting a concerted effort by the Hawks to play heads up transitional ball will be on the game plan agenda. It must also be noted that Oklahoma City also owns a stringent D, that ranks 7th in the league in Defensive rating, which registers players and teams points allowed per 100 posessions.  Everything points to this contest staying on the low side of the number.

ATLANTA is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 2 straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls this season with an average of 193.4 combined points going on the scoreboard. Hawks HC Budenholzer is 21-8 UNDER L/30 in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, with a combined average of 197.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Hawks - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games have gone under 35 of the L/46 times since the 2011 season. 

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Detroit has found some offense, of late and thats why we get a decent total to bet into here on the under.   The linesmkaers are  now over compensating for their recent offensive surge that seen them score 107 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. The Pistons still maintain a soild defensive ranking listed 2nd in the league overall and the 24th ranked pace. Meanwhiile, Orlando has scored more than 95 points just once in their L/10 and remain conservative/ methodical  in their approach, and nothing changes today. The Magic rank 3rd in points allowed, and 29th in points scored, while they mantain a 25 ranked pace. ORLANDO is 7-0 UNDER L/7 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season and 12-4 L/16 versus sides that attempt 18 or more 3 pointers a game like Motown. Note: ORLANDO is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog this season with a combined average total score of 187.3 ppg going on the scoreboard.

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The Golden State Warriors showed their defensive vulnerabilities when they dropped a 132-127 double-overtime slug gest to the Houston Rockets on Thursday night. Now you can bet defense, was a key topic in the locker room and in practice the last couple of days, which will translate into a concerted effort on the court.( Under is 7-2-1 in Warriors last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game) Meanwhile, Phoenix has recently demonstrated an improved defense. Once statistically the worst defense in the league, the Suns allowed 107 or fewer points for the fifth time in their last seven games, and Im sure defense will once again be their key to try to slow Golden State explosive offense.

GOLDEN STATE is 29-12 UNDER L/41 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games witht he combined average of those tilts clicking in at 207.7 ppg.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Suns - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog are 56-18 under for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

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CBB teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points like Troy - playing with 5 or 6 days rest, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 82-45 under dating back 5 seasons. TROY is 12-1 UNDER L/13 in all home games dating back to last season and s 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week.

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San Antonio had a 9 game winning streak , end in their last trip to the hardwood,  as they looked exhausted, in a 95-83 loss to Orlando at home Tuesday night. It is not easy in this league, to sustain a consistent tenacious level over the long haul, and physics has now caught up to the Spurs, during a heavy part of their schedule. Meanwhile, the Mavericks picked up a win Sunday, beating New Orleans 91-81 in a strong defensive performance. Defense was the mainstay of that victory, and nothing will change tonight for the Mavericks vs a superior side. The bottom line is that Dallas just does not have alot of scoring options, with Dirk Nowitzki out, so slowing this game down with slow methodical physical play gives them their best chance at being competitive. It must be noted that Dallas has scored more than 95 points just once in 9 games, and another low output looks like a strong option tonight in game that I am betting stays on the low side of the number.

SAN ANTONIO is 20-7 UNDER L/27 in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days . HC Carlisle of Dallas is 25-11 under in his L/37 games off an upset win as an underdog, with the average combined score clicking in at 184.7 ppg. 

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In their L/5 trips to the floor, the New Orleans Pelcians are ranking sixth in defensive rating (99.0) in the league. Their offense is hitting effectively, but its the D that stands out. Against a Dallas team averaging 89.4 ppg game at home on offnese Im betting on the Mavericks output to be muted once again. With that said, look for the  Mavs to try to slow this down to a crawll knowing that at this time out scoring the Pelicans is not an option. ( The Mavs have eclipsed the 95 point plateau on offense just twice in their L/ 12 trips to the floor)

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 199.5  Mavs - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, lower tier team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season 41-18 under for a 70% conversion rate on the Total for bettors.

Under is 7-2 in Pelicans last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 11-4 in Pelicans last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 UNDER L/12 in road games versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game with an average of 186.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. In 14 games as an underdog this season, the average combined score of their games has rung in at 195.4 ppg. Under is 39-17-1 in Mavericks last 57 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

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Minnesota enters this game against Golden State on tired legs after  playing last night and than having to play break neck 4th quarter ball outscoring Phoenix 31-10 in the final period to end a three-game losing streak. Wiggins  played 41 of the 48 minutes and three other starters, including Towns, at least 35, which means running the floor tonight is not an option. Meanwhile, Golden State has won 10 in a row, and have shown a top tier two game in the process, as was evident last time out, vs the Lakers in a 109-85 win. No Golden State starter played more than 36 minutes in the wire-to-wire effort, so needless say the Dubs are fresh, and scoring against them or keeping them from running will be a difficult proposition. Thus, what I am betting happens is that the Wolves knowing the situation, will revert to trying to slow this game down, to a crawl ,with a more physical appraoch behind their young bodies. It must also be remembered that the Wolves HC Thibodeau is a defensive specialist and has gone seen his teams go under in  37 of their L/56 versus frantic teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season like Golden State with the combined score of those tilts ringing in at a combined average of 191.4 ppg. 

Minnesota in their L/8 when playing back to back games have seen a combined  average of 212.1 ppg go on the scoreboard.  Minnesota in their L/ 47 road games have seen a combined average,  of 208.9 ppg. 

GOLDEN STATE in their L/102  home games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 3 seasons have seen an average of 214 ppg go on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210  - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 shots/game or more), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots have stayed under at a 99-59 clip for a powerful 63% conversion rate.

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After the Miami Heat beat the host Memphis Grizzlies 90-81 on Friday night, the teams fly south for the home-and-home rematch on Saturday night at AmericanAirlines Arena. I am expecting another hard fought physical affair tonight in the rematch. Memphis is 25th in the NBA in scoring. Miami is 28th in the league in scoring, and scoring will once again be at a premium.

NBA teams like Memphis - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a top tier team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) like Miami has seen 116 of the L/182 games go under for a 63% conversion rate. 

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Miami enters this game ranked 3rd in D, in the league ad 27th in offense and 23rd in pace . Meanwhile, their opponents Philadelphia rank 24th in offense, and 29th in offensive rating, and 11th in pace. Using my own formula, this total and matchup consistencies/discrepencies  this total should be closer to 194.5 giving us some very nice cushion room , according to my data. This is a value total to the under ,in my humble opinion .

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I expect a tight defense first mindset to dictate this contest. All College Hoops teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 like Creighton and NC State - playing their 2nd road game in 3 days, in a game involving two top-level teams  with a 80% or better win percentage the under is 24-2 L/26 for a 92% conversion rate. 

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Detroit enters this game ranking 22nd in pace in the NBA and 25 th in offensive output, and 4th in defensive rating. This is a team that defends well and is very inconsistent of offense. Meanwhile, Cleveland is ranked 12th in pace and 13 in defensive rating, bot towards the middle of the league. The offense is 3rd in output, but with Motown unable to run and gun with Cleveland Van Gundy a smart coach knows what has to be done. Look for a slower more methodical approach from the Pistons and for their Cavs flow to be interrupted just enough for this contest to stay on the low side of the number. 

Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 Cleveland  - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games have gone under in 31 of the  L/36 times.

HC Van Gundy of Motown is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.  HC Lue  of Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER L/11 after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Both totals from these games were well below todays number. 

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CHAMPIONS CLASSIC - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY

Defensive breakdowns have been frustrating Kansas HC Self after his team allowed Indiana to connect for 15  treys from 3-point range. He wants his team to pay attention to defense in transition, and Im betting that will be a big part of his game plan tonight vs Krzyzewski's Duke. Meanwhile, dukes struggling with some of their big men being injured, and will be coherent to exhaustion issues, in what should be a physical game. So a more methodical approach by the Blue Devils must be expected, which I am betting leads to a total score that fails to eclipse the number. 

Neutral court teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points like Duke and Michigan State  - in November games. In Dukes L/9 neutral court games a average combined score of 157.3 ppg have gone on the scoreboard. KANSAS is 10-2 UNDER L/12 as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick with a combined average of score of 139.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

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The Toronto Raptors and the Cleveland Cavaliers go head to head for the second time this season. In the first meeting the Cavs took a 94-91 victory. I am betting on another physical affair, where Defense takes center stage.  This will result in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. Note: Cavs are ranked 15th in pace and the Raptors 24th in the NBA. TORONTO is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread with an average of 184 combined points going on the scoreboard.CLEVELAND is 19-9 UNDER L/28 against Atlantic division opponents with an average combined score of 196.4 ppg getting scored. HC Lue is 9-0 UNDER L/9  after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread with a combined average score of 198.3 ppg going up on the board.

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The fast improving Hornets (6-2) are who rank 4th in defensive rating in the league and 6th in PPG allowed visit the defending champion Cavaliers (7-1) that rank near the middle of the league in pace, this Sunday afternoon in a interesting match-up. This is a Charlotte team on a upward trajectory . The Cavs knowing how fast the Hornets are I am betting will be methodical in their approach today and will try to slow this game down to crawl, and on the flips side, Charlotte's stingy D, will slow the Cavs ability to score in bunches, which will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse the number.
Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 road games.

Cavs HC Lue is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. NBA teams like Charlotte and Cleveland - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 105 points or more have gone under 43 of the 59 times.Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 like the Cavaliers - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a top-tier team (75% or more) playing a good team (60% to 75%) have gone under 29 of the L39 times

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It was just over a week ago that the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder went head to head for the first time this season. The aforementioned game was played in  Los Angeles with the visitors snatching a hard fought 85-83 win. Defense was the name of the game in that first battle, and I am betting the formula for both sides does not change tonight.

All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Clippers  are 70-40 under l/110- revenging a home loss vs opponent, off 2 or more consecutive home wins.Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 like the Thunder - a upper tier team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 121-64 on the under for a 65% conversion rate on the Total. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 UNDER L/10 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or less with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 194.5 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 16-1 UNDER L/17 after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games dating back to last season with a combined average of 193.9 ppg going on the board. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-2 UNDER L/17 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points with both sides combining for an average of 191.1 ppg.HC Donovan is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots which did happen in their last game.

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The Rockets enter this game playing better D, this season overall,  which was a focal point of the coaching staff in the off  season.   In their first 6 games , 3 opponents have been held under triple digits. In their last game against Atlanta the rocketmen lost 112-97, and now I expect they bounce back with a more concerted defensive effort tonight vs Washington. This will be their 4th straight road game, so they will be on tired legs and also in shape to run and gun. ( Note: Under is 10-4 in Rockets last 14 road games)

 Meanwhile, the Wizards after three sloppy Defensive efforts to begin their season, have held their L/2 opponents to 92, and 88 points respectively, and a stingy repeat performance won't be surprising.Under is 14-5 in Wizards last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER L/8 as a road underdog of 3 points or less dating back to last season with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.

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Phoinex ranks 23 of 30 teams in offensive effeciency. Meanwhile The pelicans rank 29 in offensive rating. New Orleans versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 33% or less  of their attempts spanning a 20 game sample size dating back to last season, have seen an average of 206.2 ppg go on the scoreboard, giving us some value vs this posted total. PHOENIX is 29-13 UNDER L/42 after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. Also from a league wide NBA trends data base : All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Pelcians- after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a lower tier side  winning 25% or less of their games on the season have gone under 23 of the L/27 times.

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The Clippers relied on defense to roll past the Utah Jazz 88-75 in their home opener Sunday, and will once again center on controlling tempo in this event vs a Oklahoma City side that likes to run and gun. Look for another concerted defensive effort from the Cliipers and for their efforts to result in a Total combined score that remains on the low side of the number.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-5 UNDER L/24 versus poor passing teams, averaging 20 or less assists/game.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game with an average 203 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA CLIPPERS are 30-18 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 dating back to last season. LA CLIPPERS are 12-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points with a combined average of 190.9 ppg going on the board.LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average og 195.2 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 UNDER L/21 in home games against Northwest division opponents with na average of 195.8 ppg getting scored. LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 UNDER  in home games after scoring 110 points or more which happened in a 116-98 win last time out, with an average of 193.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

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The Kings took a  113-94 win as underdogs, opening-night  at Phoenix on Tuesday and played some exrtremely good D, allowing the Suns just 38 first half points. After allowing a league high 109.1 ppg on defense last season, playing better in transistion has become a focal point for improvement for the Kings. Tonight, knowing how explosive their opponent is defense will once again come to the forefront. Meanwhile, we all know that playing strong D, is a key for the Spurs, as was evident when they held the Golden State Warriors potent offense to just 100 points in their wild 129-100 victory opener. From a league wide trends perspective it must be noted that  All NBA teams like the Kings and Spurs where the total is 200 to 209.5  - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more have gone under 31 of the L/40 times. SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in road games after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more with ana verage combined score of 181.8 ppg.

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NY K new HC Jeff Hornacek continues to look forward to implementing his uptempo style of basketball into a triangle system that Phil Jackson insists on continuing to be used. I personally believe the HC  may have problems getting the most out of the system with the personnel he has. Also with the linesmakers more than aware of how the public will perceive this ,  they will raise this total past where it should be, thus giving some room for sharp money to step in. Overall I expect despite of emotions involved in raising a championship banner, that the home side , are well aware of their run and gun opponents intentions and will be ready to slow the flow down to suit their intentions. 

NEW YORK is 30-15 L/45 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 200 . CLEVELAND is 32-14 UNDER L/46 against Atlantic division opponents. The L/7 meetings in this series have stayed under the Total. Under is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 overall.Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.Under is 23-9 in Cavaliers last 32 vs. NBA Atlantic. From a NBA wide perspective , All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5  - good ball handling team like Cleveland from last season that  committed 14 or less turnovers/game are 101-61 on the under in a huge sample size for a hefty 63% conversion rate. 

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Im betting this will be a hard fought game, but Im also betting on Golden State doing what they do best and that is score with their down town 3 point connections ( Curry and Thompson) and for the Cleveland Cavaliers to have no choice but to keep pace with some explosive offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. This will lead to a Total combined score that will see this Total eclipsed. 

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Cleveland has proven that they cannot run and gun with the defending champs consistently, and if they hope to somehow make a comeback in this series, against the Dubs , their DEFENSE will have to be  the key to their game plan. Tonight I expect LeBron and company will be out to make life physically painful for the Warriors and for the final score of this tilt to end up on the low side of the number. 

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The Warriors defensive effecicney in back to back lopsided home victories to start this series , will continue here on the road, and probably even more physical intensity will be planned on being used tonight as the Cavaliers are expected to throw everything including the kitchen sink at them tonight. The Warriors under rated  DEFENSE, DEFENSE , DEFENSE and more defense will help keep this game on the low side of the Totals number. 

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The Cleveland Cavaliers are now in full attack mode after throttling the Raptors 115-84 in game 1 of this series  and than smashing them again by DDs in game 2- 108-89. Now despite of the change in venues Im betting the Raptors as hosts still wont be able to stop the explosive Cavaliers , as they are still tired from their two exhausting  opening round series vs Indiana and Miami. With that said, look for the well rested Cavs to  continue to rock the house offensively again in game 3 and for the Raptors to chase again, which will eventually see this combined score easily eclipse the beatable Total.

Over is 11-4 in Cavaliers last 15 Conference Finals games.  Over is 24-6 in Raptors last 30 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points

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The Cleveland Cavaliers are now in full attack mode after throttling the Raptors 115-84 in game 1 of this series  and Im betting the Raptors wont be able to stop them again, as they are still tired from their two opening round series vs Indiana and Miami. With that said, look for the well rested Cavs to rock the house offensively again in game 2 and for the Raptors to chase again, which will eventually see this combined score easily eclipse the beatable Total. Over is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 24-5 in Raptors last 29 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 Conference Finals games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

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The Heat have morphed as this season has progressed and have gone , from a big, bruising team to an undersized, speedy one, with Dwayne Wade looking like a 19 yr old again. Actually both teams are looking different , but today I feel we will see the Raptors Rozen and Lowry at their best in a game that I am betting will be much speedier than many pundits expect. Both Raptors players have picked up their offense in the last couple of games and that in part is why I can see this total being eclipsed. Im also expecting a fairly close game, which adds to my thoughts on a combined score that eclipses this number.

Over is 13-6 in Heat last 19 Conference Semifinals games,Over is 23-5 in Raptors last 28 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

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Recent games in this series have become very methodical and physical and obviously low scoring.  I know Hassan Whiteside, is not expected to play tonight for the Heat, but in the recent past the Heat have shown a propensity to actually be better defensively without him, despite of media proliferation of the opposite. If your a close watcher of the Heat, this exact concept , despite of being hard to grasp has been tackled on various radio shows, and some of the numbers during the current season suggest support for this.  Also from the Raptors side, it seems key cogs, Lowry and DeRozan are struggling offensively, and the team as a whole is relying on D to be their catalysts. With that said, I expect both teams to take part in another conservative affair and a combined score that fails to eclipse the Total. 

Under is 8-1 in Heat last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 10-2 in Raptors last 12 overall.Under is 6-1 in Heat last 7 road games.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to play the San Antonio Spurs in game 5 of their NBA 2nd round series this Tuesday night. The Thunder in game 4, won a 111-97 decision at home to even the series at 2 games a piece. In that  game the Thunder exerted alot of emotional energy. Needless to say, it won't be easy playing at that level again , vs a Spurs side that is dead set on getting back to solid physical defensive performances and shutting down the Thunders momentum and offensive cohesiveness. Oklahoma City's 111-97 victory ranked among the most points that an opposing team has scored against the Spurs in any of Popovich's 254 playoff games.Spurs HC  Popovich and company have traded offensive rebounds for their usually staunch transition defense, and this I'm betting stops here. The above situations will translate into a much slower and physical defensive game than many might now think possible. The linesmakers agree with my assessments, with a 199.5 Total, but there is still room for a value under play in this spot in a game Im predicting combines to not eclipse the low 190s.

Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 5-1 under in their L/6 home games, and 20-8 in their L/28 Western Conference affairs. Under is 5-2 L/7 meetings.

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The Portland Trailblazers host the Golden State Warriors in a game that I am betting will be fast paced and full throttle .  The linesmakers agree with my assessment, as they have raised the opening number on the total from game 3, a full three points. It's no mystery that the young Blazers play their best hoops at home behind a no fear take no prisoners attitude, as was evident in their game 3 victory here by a 120-108 count, eclispig the set total by 17 points. Portland also played  more effeciently than  defending champs for almost 42 of the 48 minutes in Game 2, and will once again be a force to be dealt with as was the case in a , 137-105 thrashing of the Warriors in  regular-season victory Feb. 19 . With that said it must be noted that five of Portland's starters can capably advance the ball, and will consistently key spot-up looks for Lillard and McCollum. Meanwhile, we all know what the Dubs can do offensively, especially if forced into a small ball lineup, which is what I'm betting happens  again today. Note: Portland's owns the 2nd worst Defensive rating with  105.6 points  allowed per 100 possessions, from teams left in this years play offs. Over is 9-0 in . Blazers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland.

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 The Portland Trailblazers host the Golden State Warriors in a game that I am betting will be fast paced and full throttle  . It's no mystery that the young Blazers play their best hoops at home behind a no fear take no prisoners attitude. Portland played  more effeciently that  defending champs for almost 42 of the 48 minutes in Game 2, and will once again be a force to be dealt with as was the case in a , 137-105 thrashing of the Warriors in  regular-season victory Feb. 19 . With that said it must be noted that five of Portland's starters can capably advance the ball, and will consistently key spot-up looks for Lillard and McCollum. Meanwhile, we all know what the Dubs can do offensively, especially if forced into a small ball lineup, which is what I'm betting happens today. Note: Portland's owns the 2nd worst Defensive rating with  105.6 points  allowed per 100 possessions, from teams left in this years play offs.

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Game 1 of this series featuring the Raptors and the Miami Heat featured some hardcore physical defensive basketball and some bad shooting from some key players on both sides that resulted in a lower scoring affair that saw the scoreboard flash a  90-87 score favoring Miami with nearly no time on the clock when Toronto's Lowry hit a Hail Mary to send the game to OT. The game eventually eclipsed the Total, and despite a repeat extra time game, there is value here with taking the under.  I know the Raptors started a small lineup in game 1, and want o push the pace, but the Heat, will want to do the opposite and I feel they can slow this game down with Whiteside being a key defensive cog for the Heat. 

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Charlotte has played some tremendous basketball against the Miami Heat in this opening round NBA play off series, but failed in their attempt to oust the Heat in game 6 as Dwayne Wade looked like a 20 year old again, and brought everything to save the Heat and force a game 7. Now I expect an extremely high energy game this Sunday, in a contest that I am betting will be much higher scoring than many of the pundits anticpate. As we now get a value number to bet into because the last four meetings were so defensive and physical ain nature. I'm betting both teams leave everything on floor and total combined score soars over this posted Total. Over is 5-1 in Hornets last 6 road games.Over is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Miami.

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Oklahoma City averaged 112 points in the series against the Mavericks - including 122.7 over the last three games and rolling. San Antonio despite of their top tier defense abilities, will I am betting still have to do some scoring tonight, against a uptempo opponent. This will eventually lead to a score that will be eclipsed. Over is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 road games.Over is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

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With Curry injured for Golden State they have to pay more attention to defense, and are more than capable of a top tier effort in that regard, as is evident behind a 5th ranked NBA defensive rating ie (for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions.) Im betting that Golden State comes out here in more physical fashion, and slow down a Houston side that just wants to run and gun. This I am betting will result in a lower scoring tilt than many of the pundits might expect. It must be noted that in the five games that the Warriors have played without Curry this season they averaged 10.2 fewer points than their season average on offense.

Under is 6-2 in Rockets last 8 road games. Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.

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