Cappers Sports Picks

Louisville put 51 points on the board vs their FCS opponent last week and James Madison put 45 points on the board. Both teams ran what looked more like a controlled scrimmage. This week Im betting they unleash the proverbial hounds and for these two viable offenses to tee off on each other. Both sides have strong starting QBS with JMU showcasing duel threat  Alonza Barnett III and the Cardinal with Miller Moss. Points will be scored and more than the lines-makers estimate.

Louisville games in non-conference games are 6-0 OVER L/6 with a combined average of 62 ppg scored. Jeff Brohm games in the first two weeks of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 64.4 ppg scored.

Play on the over

These franchises(teams) have a history of some explosive back and forth offensive affairs in the past. eclipsing  the totals offering in 7 of their l/9 meetings with the average combined score clicking in at   55  ppg  . The L/4 games played here in Philadelphia have all gone over the total with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. 

The Cowboys are 7-0 OVER as road dogs of  5  or more pts.

Eagles have gone over in 3 straight opening season games with a combined average of 60.3 ppg scored.

Note:It is  Supposed to be a Sunny afternoon so conditions in an around the playing surface will be fine. Showers and scattered thunderstorms could move into the area during the game, and could hang around for the rest of the night.In true summer fashion, these showers and storms could be brief, but delays are possible if lightning is detected within the area of the stadium. Overall I still don't believe their will enough of an effect here to keep this game from not eclipsing the Total. 

Play on the over 

Sparks are in a explosive run and gun rhythm and will force the cpable offense of the Fever in what Im betting will be an offensive fireworks display.

Los Angeles games off a road win are 9-1 over L/10 with a combined average of 178.5 ppg scored. ( They upset the Storm last time out as road dogs) Los Angeles games after scoring 90 points or more are 12-2 over with a combined average of 179.9 ppg scored. Los Angeles games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game are 6-0 OVER this season with a combined average of 177.2 ppg scored.

Road teams like the Sparks where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 over with a combined average of 174.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

WNBA teams like the LA Sparks where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - after 4 straight games where both teams scored 80 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or more are 25-4 under L/27 opportunities with a combined average of 171.1 ppg scored.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid to high 160s .

New York games after a close win by 3 points or less are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined aveerage of 174.4 ppg.

WNBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 over since 2016 with a combined average of 174.9 ppg scored.

Play over

Key words here in this battle is heat and humidity. Maybe just maybe these teams start fast but by the 2nd half cramps , heat exhaustion will take its toll on both teams and this game will slow down to a crawl. That makes for a lower scoring tilt than the line offering suggests. 

Spencer Danielson as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points- ( 5 game sample size has seen a combined average of 50.2 ppg go on the scoreboard.

NCAAF Road teams against the total like Boise State- excellent offense from last season - averaged 6.1 or more yards/play, in weeks 0-3, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 39-13 under since 2021 with a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored.

Play under

the Sun offense has been playing well of late, averaging 83.6 ppg while, Dallas have score 80 or mopre points in 5 of theior L/6. Menawhile both Ds are sub average with Dallas showing particular softness allowing 93 plus points per game in their L/5 ovetall. Im expecting a wide open back forth game.

Dallas away games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 44% or more are 15-3 over since 2023 with a combined average of 188.3 ppg .

  Dallas away games versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game after 15+ games. are 32-11 over since 2023 with a combined average score of 177.1 ppg scored.

WNBA teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two average offensive teams (75-82 PPG), after a close loss by 3 points or less. are 25-6 over since 1997 with the average combined score clicking in at 171,1 ppg.

As the play offs inch closer teams are begging to pay more attention to defense.

WNBA teams entering Monday -Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots are 25-3 under since 1997 with a combined average of 155.6 ppg.

Play under

My projections estimate a combined score in the low 160s range.

Las Vegas games against Eastern conference opponents are 29-11 under since with a cominbed average of 159.2 ppg scored.

Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots with a combined avrage of 155.6 ppg scored.

Play under

  Philadelphia  temps will be in the 80s with wind blowing out. Citizens Park is very receptive to wind and once again rated at the top of the slate for offensive output this Sunday. 

Washington starter JAKE IRVIN starts vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season is 11-1 OVER since 2023 with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

Washington games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 12-3 OVER this season with a combined averaged of 12.2 rpg scored.

Phillies starte rRANGER SUAREZ home starts vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse is 9-1 OVER since 2023 with a combined average of 11.8 rpg scored.

Play on the over

My projections have this combined score in the mid 150s.

Las Vegas games against Eastern conference opponents are 12-3 UNDER L/15 with a combined average of 156.3 ppg scored.

Washington games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 5-0 under this season with a combined average of 146.6 ppg scored.(Lost at Connecticut 56-67)

WNBA road teams like the Aces where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots are 25-2 under since 1997 with the average combined score clicking at 154.9 ppg.

Play under

My projections estimate a score in the low 160s, bug value here to the under based on my output algorithms.

Dallas games off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog is 5-0 under this season with a combined average of 153.8 ppg scored.

WNBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more of their shots are 24-2 under since 1997 with 154.9 ppg scored.

Play under

My rpojections estimate a combined score in the low 170s giving us a  nice edge on this totals offering.

WNBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 OVER since 1997 with a combined average score of 174.8 ppg scored.

Play over

Brock Purdy played three series in the 49ers’ second preseason game last week,  and I am expecting him to play s few more series this week and do some damage to what looks to be a shallow Raiders defense.Also Look for key back up QB Mac Jones to see action.  Last week the Broncos easily ran over the Raiders defensive depth looks like a problem. On the flipside, the Raiders solidified the idea of who will be there back up QBAidan O’Connell as Carroll played him alot last week. That to ,me means Geno Smith and Cam Miller get alot snaps and are capable of moving the chains and putting points on the the board. All and all this number looks vulnerable.

Last week 14 of 16 games went over the total.

Play on the over

Royals Starter Noah Cameron owns a 2.55 ERA on the season and has , allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of his 16 starts this season.  Here against a  Pale Hose  offense that is  ranked 27th in scoring at 3.8 runs per game Im betting he registers a quality start.  Meanwhile, White Sox starter Aaron Civale owns a  slightly bloated  4.91 ERA but has allowed two earned runs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts. His number have a high probability of remains consistent here vs a  Royals offense that  ranks last in baseball in home scoring at just 3.4 runs per game.

AARON CIVALE starts when the total is 9 to 9.5 are 7-0 under this season with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored.

NOAH CAMERON starts vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse is 8-0 UNDER this season with a combined 4.4 rpg scored.

MLB Road teams like CWS where the total is 8.5 to 10 - after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 32-8 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average score of 7.8 rpg scored.

Play under

WNBA Road teams like Washington where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less ) after 15+ games are 24-3 over since 1997 with a combined average of 174,8 ppg scored.

Play over

WNBA Road teams like chiago where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (14.5 TO or less) after 15+ games are 24-3 over since 2016 with a combined average of 174.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

Yesterdays low scoring game Im betting was an anomaly in this series. Note: Minnesota home games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less are 8-0 OVER L/8 with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.

The Royals' offense has improved since the  All-Star break, ranking 13th in MLB with a 104 wRC+ and also , ranking seventh in home runs . They should have a very good day vs a depleted Twins pitching staff , especially in the relief corps. Meanwhile, the Twins despite of their massive trade deadline, subtractions are still a good offensive side, as is evident by recording a  113 wRC+,  ranking 7th in  MLB since the All-Star break.

Forecast for KC vs. MIN at Target Field: A warm day with a temperature around 80°F and light winds blowing out to center field at 9.6 mph. Humidity at 42% means ideal hitting conditions.Pitchers will face challenges from the wind, making for a high-probability scoring game.

Play over

These teams played earlier  this season and combined for 193 points. Yes they are a little depleted injury wise since then, but the overall talent and  pace should be more than adequate between last years NBA finals participants.

Minnesotas starter Ober (4-6, 5.38 ERA) missed time this season with a  hip injury. He returns this past  Saturday, when he allowed four runs on six hits in five innings in a 5-4 road loss to the Cleveland Guardians and he returns Saturday. He projects to see limited action maybe around 5 innings if he lasst that long. My pitcher vs batting order data suggests the Royals matchup well against him.Meanwhile,  Royals return fire with  left-hander Noah Cameron (5-5, 2.68 ERA) . Despite of big trades at the deadline, the Twins bats have been on fire. Quote: from KCs top hurler: "I feel like they have some younger guys that are excited to be in the big leagues, and they were letting off swings for just about every strike I threw," Lugo said. "That's something you just have to be aware of." That kind of approach will promises some aggressive offensive action. 

Target Field will have good hitting weather tonight. It will be in the mid-80s with low air pressure and mild wind blowing out to left field for Royals / Twins.

Minnesota has gone over in their L/6 games, while the Royals have gone over in 5 of their L/6. 

Play on the over

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid to high 160s giving us an obvious edge on a over bet.

OVER

Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder despite of being talented just has not been consistent this seaon on the mound and has posted a  6.03 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. In his current form he is fade material and primed to be blasted again by a up-trending Marlins offense that is ranked 5th on the road in MLB averaging 3.8 rpg. On the flip-side, the . I know Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has been decent this season garnering a stable 3.24 ERA but considering the   the Marlins bullpen has been imploding lately , and blew a save yesterday to the Braves,  this total is just to low and vulnerable to being eclipsed. 

Atlanta games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season are 7-0 this season with a combined average of 13.1 rpg scored.

Play over

 Im projecting a lower scoring preseason game here as both sides are implementing   new offenses with new QBs. We know their will be an array starters in this game, especially Carrolls side, who has said he will give key players some key snaps this week vs his former team.  But with new offensive schemes it will take time to get the chains moving with consistency for both sides. Im, recommending we take the under. 

Play under

Windy again in Chicago today so whats new?  Forecast  is 7-9 mph winds blowing in from right field and Im betting that effect the offenses here today. 

Cincinnati games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 9-1 UNDER this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored.

Play under

 Baltimores starter Kremer has a 4.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and has struggled for most of this season. He is backed by a equally inept bullpen,  that ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA, FIP and WAR. With the  Phillies ranking in the top 10 in runs per game,, slugging percentage,  hits per game and OPS there should be sufficient offensive fireworks today to help us eclipse this total. On the flip-side,T Walker  ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA and KO rate. He is backed by a relief corps, that  ranks in the bottom half of the league in WAR, ERA, FIP,  snd expected FIP (xFIP)  . So considering the Os the Orioles rank in the top half of the league in runs per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs Im betting on a consolidated offensive output here that leds us to the promised land of totals betting. 

Philadelphia games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 10-0 OVER since the 2023 season with a combined average of 13.7 rpg scored,

Play on the over

Brewers starter today Jacob Misiorowski has looked solid this season but he has recently looked a little tired as was evident in  his last two starts where he lasted four innings or less. It must than be noted that the  Brewers bullpen ranks 17th in the majors with a 4.01 ERA. On the flip-side,Rookie Brad Lord will get the ball for the Nats. He has also had a solid season, but according to my projections he is due for regression especially in the starters role where he has made only 2 starts this season with the majority of his work coming out of the bullpen. He goes against a Brewers side that owns  the second-best ranked offensive rating  since July 1st with a 121 wRC+. With that said, when he leaves this game the righty will be backed by worst  bullpen in MLB with a 5.72 ERA. The first two games of this series saw alot of runs go on the board, and Im betting the offensive momentum continues today. 

Washington games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 10-0 OVER this season with a combined average of 13.6 rpg.

SF

MLB teams where the total is 8 to 9.5 - after 2 straight wins by 6 runs or more against opponent after 3 straight losses by 4 runs or more are 57-25 OVER since 1997 with a combined average of 10.6 rpg scored for a 70% conversion rate for bettors backing this long term. system.

Play on the over 

The Rays are currently struggling which is not a good omen for them against the NY Yankees starter Fried.  When MAX FRIED starts at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 ha has seen the under go 10-1 since last season with a combined average of 5.4 rpg scored and in home starts vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game he has seen his L/12 starts stay under the total with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored.

Joe Boyle will get the start for the Rays tonight for the Rays after they optioned Taj Bradley to Triple-A. Boyle  has seen limited action this season, but  recent scouting reports are saying he is throwing well and that his electric 4-seamer, is looking very viable entering this tilt. 

  NY Yankees home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game are 17-3 UNDER this season with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored and at home.vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season have gone under in in 21 of 27 games. Note: The Bronx Zoo is not  particularly viable park for singles and doubles which makes it less friendly to scoring than some of the more balanced stadiums around the league.

NY Yankees games revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent as a home favorite are 5-0 UNDER with a combined average of 7 rpg.

 Tampa Bay games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season are 20-3 UNDER this season with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored.Also when playing against a team with a winning record have gone under in 9 of their L/11 overall.

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+10.07 Units / 18% ROI)T

he Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Play under

The Sparks play a one way run and gun type of hoops,  no attention to D, and all out offense. However,  in contrarian fashion the defending champs look to slow these teams down and get them out of their comfort zone is as evident by going 5-0 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 44% with a combined average of 157 ppg going on the board.

WNBA teams like LAS where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - after 4 straight games where both teams scored 80 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or more are 23-3 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 160.9 ppg scored.

WNBA teams like NYL where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - good offensive team - scoring 83+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 90 points or more in 2 straight games are 25-3 UNDER side 2021 with a combined average of 164.9 ppg scored.

Play under

Fenway is known as a run producing venues, and with the temps in the 80s tonight,  Im betting hitting will be the center of attraction as will be the home run highlights. The dodgers are one of baseballs most talented offensive lineup and Boston sometimes explosive offense must not be disrespected. LA Dodgers road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 11-1 over L/12 with a combined average of 12.7 rpg scored. Boston games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season are a perfect 7-0 this season with a combined average of 13.3 rpg scored.

Play on the OVER

Oaklands starting pitcher Luis Severino has struggled a bit of late having allowed    five runs or more in four of his last five starts. The righty is backed by the 29th ranked bullpen in MLB with a bloated 5.50 ERA. On the flipside, Alexander the Astros starter has not seen alot of MLB, action. He actually was with the As earlier this season, where he allowed 13 runs in just 6 innings of work, before finding himself with the Astros where he has done decently in a small sample size. He was tough to face in the minors garnering a stingy 1.69 ERA, but we are at a whole different level here, and my pitcher vs batting order projections estimate the As sometimes explosive offense should do well here today. 

LUIS SEVERINO starts vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse has seen his team go 15-3 over with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.LUIS SEVERINO starts when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) are 21-4 over since the 2023 season with a combined average of 10.0 rpg scored.

Play on the over

Twins CHRIS PADDACK starts against NL West opponents are a perfect 6-0 UNDER in his career with a combined average score odf 6 rpg scored.

Minnesota road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better are 24-7 under this season with a combined average of. 6.9 rpg scored.

LAD TYLER GLASNOW starts vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season are 9-0 UNDER with a combined average of 4.9 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 - very good NL offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against an average AL starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70) are 58-26 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 8.2 rpg scored.

Play under

Ottawa s Dru Brown will play at QB this week for 2nd time in a row since being sidelined with injury for 3 games. He looked rusty last week but will Im betting bounce back with a decent offensive performance, here vs an inconsistent Hamilton D that has allowed 28 points and 400 yards in three of five games during the current campaign. Meanwhile, on the flip side Ottawas QB Bo Levi Mitchell is No.1in  the CFL in passing yards accumulating 1,485 yds. Im betting he also adds to his lofty numbers vs a  Ottawa team that 7th in opponent pass efficiency and yards allowed per pass attempt with 9.1. Note:Hamilton games in road games are 9-1 L/10 opportunities with combined average of 61.9 ppg. Hamilton games in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 are 5-0 OVER L/5 with a combined average of 60 ppg. Ottawa games after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses are 9-0 OVER dating back to 2023 with a combined average of 60.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

Toronto will start Chris Bassitt (9-4, 4.12 ERA) in the opener here vs the Giants. The right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.54 ERA in 39 2/3 innings over seven career starts against the Giants. Meanwhile,San Francisco turns to  starter   Justin Verlander (0-7, 4.70),  .  Verlander is  4-7 with a 4.13 in 16 starts vs the Jays in his career. My projections estimate a combined score of 9 or more runs which gives credence to my over recommendation.

SF has gone over 11 of 12 times this season, in road games against strong opp with win % of .540-to .620. They have averaged 6.2 rpg in these games, while allowing 5 runs per games for a 11.2 rpg  Totals average. 

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Play over

New York scored just two runs yesterday in a 5-2 loss but they have been explosive offensively this season behind a top tier lineup of talent.  The Yankees have nine players with a wRC+ better than 120 in July and Im betting they bang back hard today. Yes, I know Cubs starter Imanaga has recoeded a  2.80 ERA this season but the  Chicago’s ace has a 4.20 xERA and 4.60 FIP and not matchup well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Meanwhile, the Cubs have also donr some scoring this year, and own a  brilliant 117 wRC+ in July.   They go against a pitcher in Warren (4.70 ER) who has pitched well overall but can be lit up by offense like this . WILL WARREN starts in the second half of the season dating back to last season has gone over in 8 straight with a combined score of 13.8 rpg scored. In separate outings against the  Dodgers and Blue Jays he allowed 15 plus runs.

NY Yankees games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 12-1 OVER with a combined average of +13.5 rpg.NY Yankees games at home when the money line is +125 to -125 are 6-0 OVER with a combined 12 rpg scored.

Play over

Two solid pitchers will be on the hill today for both teams, but the Cubs and Yankees also have two very solid offenses that can make the best of pitchers look average. With the Yankees seeing their L/11 games go over the total it will not be a hard decision to bet on a 12th straight over here. If it aint broke don't fix it.Note:  NY Yankees games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season are 9-0 over with the combined average score clicking in at 12.7 rpg.

OVER 

Seattles starter George Kirby enters this game in top form. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts after a slow start to his season and after a short injury. With the Pirates  averaging less than 3.1 runs per game on the road which ranks  last in the  National League, Im betting Kirby holds fort again and limits Bucks run production to a minimum.  Meanwhile, the Pirates respond with emerging star pitcher Paul Skenes who has garnered a stingy 2.03 ERA, allowing an average of  just 5.8 hits and 0.4 home runs per nine innings, which ranks No.1 among  starting pitchers in the National League.   .

Pittsburgh games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 19-5 under L/24 with a combined average of 5.5 rpg scored.

Seattle home games after 5 or more consecutive home games are a perfect 10-0 under this season with an average combined score of 4.5 rpg going on the board.

Play under

Morton (4-7, 5.63 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Spencer Strider (3-6, 3.86) in the series opener.Morton last faced the Braves as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020. He owns a  3.53 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta.Strider has won three of his past four starts, pitching to a 2.25 ERA over that period . 

Orioles starter CHARLIE MORTON starts vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season are 8-0 under since last season with a combined average of 5.6 rpg scored.CHARLIE MORTON starts vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season are 8-0 under with a combined average of 5.5 rpg game.

Baltimore road games after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse are 9-1 under sine 2025.Baltimore road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 15-4 under L/19 overall with a combined average of 8.1 rpg crossing the plate.

Atlanta home games after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more are 5-0 under this season, with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored.Atlanta home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season are 17-4 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 66. rpg scored.

Play under

Ranger starter KUMAR ROCKER when pitching in day games his team is 6-0 under since last season with a combined average of 4.8 rpg.

Padres starter RANDY VASQUEZ home starts in an inter-league game are 6-0 under since 2023 with a combined average of 6.1 rpg. RANDY VASQUEZ home starts vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season are 6-0 under sinew 2023 with a combined average of 5.8 rpg.

Texas games against NL West opponents are 8-1 this season with a combined average of 4.7 rpg scored.Texas games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better are 24-8 under this season with a combined average of 6.6 rpg.

Mild temps but not to warm, make for a viable environment for reduced run production in what is usually a pitcher friendly park.

Play under

Quick line movement out of the gate , has seen some books boost this to 9.5 from 9. I in tune with the  market move and project a score of around 11 runs here giving us value on this Totals offering. 

Detroit road games in night games have gone over in 19 of 24 games this season.

The Detroit Tigers have only hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 43 away games (-14.75 Units / -31% ROI) 

The heat in Washington is very humid- Nationals Park gets a clear boost from the 90° temps and low air pressure this evening. Hitters have the edge. 

Play over

Right-hander Walker Buehler (5-5, 6.29 ERA) is scheduled to start on the mound for Boston on Sunday. Lefty Eric Lauer (4-1, 2.21) is listed as Toronto's probable pitcher.My power rankings suggest both hurlers do not matchup well vs the perspective batting orders they will face, and Im projecting a high score count in the early innings that will carry us over the total in a full game contest. 

Fenway Park, expect a hot day with a temperature around 87°F and low humidity at 29%, favoring hitters. Light winds at 8.2 mph blowing out to right field can enhance power numbers. No precipitation is expected, ensuring a clean game. Great conditions for offense.

BC scored 14 and 20 points in thier L/2 games both against Winnipeg and Im betting they have problems scoring again this week in a tilt I have projected to stay under this total. Roughriders D looked a little lazy last time out and almost lost ,  but Im expecting to bounce back in a big way vs  a sputtering Lions offense.

British Columbia games versus division opponents are 11-2 under L/13 meetings with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored.

CFL Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 26-6 UNDER since 1996 with the combined average score of these games clicking in at 42.8 ppg.

The L/2 meetings in this series have stayed on the low side of the offered total. 

Play on the UNDER

Lucas Giolito (3-1, 4.53 ERA) is scheduled to start for Boston on Saturday against fellow right-hander Chris Bassitt (7-3, 3.61) of Toronto.

LUCAS GIOLITO home starts vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season are 9-1 OVER L./10 with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. (Team)

Toronto games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 11-2 over L/13 with a combined average of +11.8 rpg scored.Toronto games after scoring 8 runs or more 11-2 over with a combined average of 12 rpg scored. Toronto games after shutting out their opponent are 5-0 over with a combined average of 13.2 rpg.

This matchup between Toronto and Boston at Fenway, will see warm temps around 74°F with 81% humidity, favoring hitters. Light winds (4.4 mph out to left field). No rain expected, so solid conditions for batting. A slight boost for power hitters in the friendly confines of Fenway!

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)

Play over

My projections for this game come are closer to 13 runs giving us a full 2 run cushion to the over here. Tonight's game at Coors Field between the Dodgers and Rockies features a warm 66.4°F with a light wind blowing out to center field at 6.7 mph, enhancing hitting conditions. With only a 1% chance of rain and humidity at 66%, Expect solid offensive production .

Colorados Chase Dollander owns a 2-7 record this season along with a bloated 6.19 ERA. Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 6-6 with a 2.76 ERA but is in negative regression territory according to my charts and with the Rockies offense starting to get untracked batting .272 over the last week as a team and .293 at home in division home games that ERA should take a hit, 

Away division games have seen the Dodgers pitching allowing a 5.63 ERA. Colorado at home have recorded a 5.10 team ERA and 6.75 ERA at home in divison tilts. 

!The Los Angeles Dodgers have only hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 57 games (-20.25 Units / -32% ROI)

Play over

Left-hander Framber Valdez (8-4, 3.09 ERA) is scheduled to start the series opener for the Astros on Tuesday. The southpaw pwns. a  2.13 ERA and 62 strikeouts over 55 innings. Meanwhile , Ranger Suarez (6-1, 2.20 ERA) goes to hill for the  Phillies. The lefty recorded his eighth consecutive quality start on Wednesday against the Miami Marlins, allowing one run on four hits and two walks with  eight strikeouts over seven innings in a win. Suarez has allowed two earned runs or less in his L/6 starts, going 4-1 with a 0.91 ERA during that span. Im betting on this top tier quality hurlers who enter this game in top form to help keep this combined score on the low side of the totals offering by going long and strong. 

Houston games at home when the total is 7 to 7.5. are 12-3 UNDER L/15 with a combined average of 5.5 rpg scored. Astros have gone under in all 3 opportunities when facing . an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better like Suarez.

Phillies have gone under in 6 of 8 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.

The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 17% ROI) The Houston Astros have only hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 78 games (-14.95 Units / -17% ROI)

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+10.00 Units / 27% ROI)

Play under

The Riders have proven they score in bunches so far this season and their offensive explosiveness is a key reason here for me to jump on this over. CFL Road teams like the Riders where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-6 over since 1996 with a combined average of 51.4 ppg scored.

Play over

Phoenix played avery physical tilt game versus Connecticut last night, and could be on tired legs and unable ti run and gun with the explosive Liberty. Damage control will be on the Mercury agenda in what Im betting will see a combined score on the low side of the totals offering. 

Play on the under 

All five games in the Stanley Cup /finals have eclipsed the Total, and no matter how well the goalies of played 7 or more goals combined have been scored in those games. Im betting nothing changes tonight, as both these tremendous offenses tee of on each other in a key elimination tilt. Edmonton in away or neutral games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp are 10-2 OVER L/12 .

Play on the over

I was solidly behind a lower scoring game last time out. It started fast than slowed down as the game went into the 2nd half. Alot of trends support a lower scoring game, and the lines makers have now lowered the total offering by almost 4 points and rightly so. Im betting the Thunder ride the momentum of thier last win in game 4 in Indiana and really bring out their guns and put the metal to the metal from start to finish and force the Pacers in speeding up their attack or be blown off the court which the lines makers are expecting. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 - in non-conference games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 207-139 OVER for a 60% conversion rate with a combined average 228.7 ppg scored dating back to 1997.

Indiana as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points are 8-2 OVER this season. Indiana away or neutral games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 13-2 OVER dating back to 2024 with.a combined average of 241.7 ppg scored.

Play over

Giants send  Kyle Harrison to the hill tonight to face a potent Dodgers offense that averages 6.1 rpg . The Giants lefty owns a 4.34 ERA  in his four trips to hill this season while allowing  1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per  nine innings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers return fire with righty Dustin May , who despite pitching decently at home is set for negative regression as his overall, metrics show me in power ranking charts. Note: SF ha allowed 37 runs in their L/5 games overall 7.4 rpg and allowed 11 last night and could easily get lit up again, with the Dodgers  eclipsing this totals offering all by themselves.

Expect a warm evening in Dodger Stadium with temps around 83°F. Conditions are ideal for hitting, with light winds (8.1 mph) blowing out to right field. Humidity is low (28.5%), enhancing ball distance. No precipitation expected, ensuring a clean game. Viable matchup for batters.

San Francisco games as an underdog of +125 to +175 are 10-1 OVER this season with a combined average of 10.6 rpg scored and 9-1 OVER as raod dog under the same line parameters. San Francisco road games against division opponents are 6-0 to the over.San Francisco road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season are 13-3 over with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers home games vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start are 13-3 over with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

Play on the over

My rejections estimate a score to reach the mid 160s giving us value with an over bet . 

My rejections estimate a score to reach the mid 160s giving us value with an over bet . 

All 4 games in this series between these two teams in the Stanley Cup finals have seen at least 7 combined goals scored . No matter how well these goalies have played the tremendous talent on offense has found ways to score and Im betting nothing changes tonight. 

Edmonton home games in the Stanley Cup finals are 6-0 since last seasons with a combined average of 8.8 gpg scored.

NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more - after scoring 3 goals or more in 4 straight games against opponent after playing 2 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored are 196-129 OVER for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Hamilton's defense is once again looking porous, just like they have been the last couple of seasons.  . Dating back to last year, the Tiger-Cats have gone over in  14 of 19 games and  in nine of their L/11 tilts.With that bad defense comes a top gun QB that can thread the needle consistently. This kind of action leads to high scoring affairs more often than not. Hamilton lost 38-26 last week, to Calgary and here against a Saskatchewan side, the scored 31 points while allowing 26 in a win last week vs Ottawa. Im betting on more fireworks today as Riders  RBS and top tier receivers should shine  in what should be a back and forth affair. Riders have gone over in 19 of their L30. Saskatchewan games in games where the line is +3 to -3.are 15-3 to the over since 2023 with.a combined average of 54.3 ppg. Hamilton games in non-conference games are 9-1 over with a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Indiana has been able to slow down the Thunders offense, and Im betting that continues tonight. The Thunder are one of the NBAs top defenses and Im betting they press even harder now down 2 games to 1. A very physical game 4 is my prediction and a more slower deliberate pace . Under is on a 26-12-1 in the last 38 finals  games, and 10-1 UNDER  in the last 11.

It must be noted that No. 4 seeds like the Pacers in the NBA finals have seen 18 of their L/22 games stay under the total. 

Oklahoma City was first in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (108.5) this season and, Indiana was seventh in the NBA at (112.8)

NBA Any team - in the finals, in the 4th game of a playoff series are 42-14 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 191.6 ppg scored.

Play under

Courtney Vandersloot, tore her ACL and Chicago is going to suffer because of it. Guard play was already an issue and now wow its should be a night mare scenario. The Libertuy Im betting put up mucho points here in what the linesmakers agree will be a blowout. Im more comfortable taking the total than laying the big lumber . 

NBA Road teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in June games are 21-3 over since 1997 with a combined average of 173.5 ppg scored.

NY Liberty Sandy Brondello games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game are 9-1 over with a combined average of 173.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is not in good form as is evident by his  (6.42 ERA) .Last time out he  allowed eight runs and  seven hits  against the Halos. On the flip-side  Rays starter Ryan Pepiot  4.24 xERA) is vulnerable to being beaten up on by a Bosox team he does not matchup well against as  allowed six earned runs on nine hits in six innings in his last start vs the Red Sox.Im betting these pitchers struggle in hitter friendly Fenway. 

Both these teams offenses are in top form, The Rays’ offense is in explosion mode (121 wRC+ over the past couple of  weeks), and the Red Sox own a  (112 wRC+) during the same period.

Boston games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more are 10-1 over with a combined average of 14.1 rpg scored. Alex Cora road games after scoring 6 runs or more 5 straight games are 6-0 OVER with a combined average of 14 rpg.

After a frantic close win last time out vs Golden State I betting the Mercury will be in a letdown scenario and could easily come out with a lethargic effort that will effect this score towards the under and still playing without Alyssa Thomas their cohesiveness on offense will be tested by the Storm. Seattle as a favorite and Phoenix as an rdog have gone 8-1-1 to the Under this season so far.

Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May is not in top form as is evident by a  (4.20 ERA, 4.44 xERA). Meanwhile, Mets send  Paul Blackburn to the  hill. He will  make his 2025 debut after knee inflammation held him out for April and May. He had some rehab starts, but here against an explosive Dodgers offense he may be in a for a short stint. Thats not a good omen for holding off the Dodgers offense since the Mets , own a bottom-five bullpen against left-handed hitters like theDodgers  (i Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy)  as was evident in May (5.26 xFIP, 6.4% K-BB). 

NY Mets games as a road underdog of +125 to +175 are 20-6 OVER since last season with a combined average of 11.4 rpg. NY Mets road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better are 6-0 OVER with a combined average of 13.7 rpg scored. LA Dodgers home games after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span are 9-1 over with a combined average of 13.9 rpg scored.

Play over

LAD starter Yamamoto has been in the strike zone all season long, , and has a 1.97 ERA with a 2.53 xERA and a 2.74 FIP.  Note: YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO starts after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings is 6-0 under with a combined average of 4.2 rpg scored.  The Dodgers scored  an 8-5 win on Friday night and 18-2 win last night vs the Yanks. In Sunday nights tilt Im expecting  Dodgers Japanese starter to temper the Yanks bats and for the Yankees starter Yarbrough  who owns  a  3.06 ERA and a 3.08 xERA, to also help finally slow the Dodgers bats. 

NY Yankees games revenging a loss where opponent scored 12 or more runs are 10-1 UNDER L/12 opportunities with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. NY Yankees games revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 8 runs or more are 6-0 L/6 with a combined average of 5.6 rpg scored.

Play under

Indiana had a bad offensive outing in Game 5 of this series, and subsequently lost to bring in a Game 6  situation that could see them advance to the NBA Finals. With that said, Im looking for a very aggressive offensive performance from the Pacers and for the Knicks to have to open up or be blown off the court. Indiana games after scoring 95 points or less are a perfect 9-0 L/9 opportunities with a combined average of 242.4 ppg scored.

Play over

The Dream are expected to have  Brittney Griner back in the lineup tonight after missing the last game  Seattle is expected to healthy tonight with all roster positions available to play. Im projecting both these sides to score in the low 80s and for this totla to be easily eclipsed. WNBA teams where the total is 159.5 or less - averaging 42 or more rebounds/game on the season, on Friday nights are 80-38 OVER for a 68% conversion rate .

Play over

The Pacers have an offensive rating of 121.1 in this series and are starting to pick apart the Knicks defense wth ease. The Knicks capable offense Im  betting are going to be forced into action and create some offensive fireworks of their own or find themselves eliminated from the post season. This Im. betting leads to a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are estimating.Since 2016, conference finals Game Fives have gone 7-2 Over  when one of the teams is attempting to close out the series, with combined average of 224.8 ppg scored. 

Indiana away or neutral games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are are 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 239.1 ppg going on the board.Indiana away or neutral games after one or more consecutive overs are 20-7 OVER L/27 with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored.

Play over 

The Pacers took both games in NYK and now down 2-0 the Knicks are going to have to be more aggressive and leave everything on the court and up their pace. That Im betting translates into a higher scoring affair that eclipses this offered total. Im betting on most of NYK best players to be in action for most of this game, and for Brunson who has had his way offensively to play alot of minutes here.Brunson played only 39 minutes in the last game and Im betting on those min increasing in this key tilt.  It must be noted that the Pacers have averaged 119.5 ppg  of offense in the play offs and the Knicks after trying to play more D and slow their tempo down through the early part of these play offs have now been forced into action in their L/5 overall games  have scored an average of 117.2 ppg on offense while allowing an average of 114.6 ppg on D. 

Indiana ranks 7th in the NBA ppg, while ranking 17th in ppg D. 

NYK rank 9th in ppg offense and 14th in defensive rating. 

New York games after playing 3 consecutive home games are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 238.7 ppg scored.

Play on the over 

late update - total- under 

N YK outplayed Indiana for almost four quarters in game 1 of this series but their defense let them down late, and they blew a DD lead. Im betting here in the rebound game , the Knicks come out bombing away again and just keep the peddle to the metal from start to finish with no let up .On the flip-side Im also betting  Indiana to also step up their offense and continue to bring offensive heat with the momentum of their comeback last time out. (Brunson seems to be a weak point of the Knicks on D, and HC Carlisle game plan will continue to push him) The Knicks offense has been exceptional for most of this season, and their built to score in bunches, ranking 9th in ppg offense and 5th in offensive rating. Meanwhile, Indiana ranked 7th in offense entering this game, and 17th in D ppg, and are and will remain vulnerable defenders despite of some glimpses of strong defensive play in their earlier rounds of these play offs. The linesmakers have pushed up the totals offering  from game 1, but rightfully so.Indiana away or neutral games after one or more consecutive overs. are 20-6 OVER this season with those games seeing a combined average of 238.9 ppg. Indiana away or neutral games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 242.2 ppg. Indiana away or neutral games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. are 13-2 OVER L/15 with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored.

Play over

The Thunder are suddenly hitting on all cylinders offensively and that bad news for a Minnesota side that wants to slow things down and be physical. Unfortunately for the Wolves, the Thunder just dealt with that kind of slow paced action and prevailed thanks to some adjustments and now Im betting will continue to find ways to open up play and force their opponents to open up as well as the Thunder will force turnovers . Note: Oklahoma City owned  second-best transition offense (121.1 points per 100 possessions) in the league and since the post season began the Thunder’s opposition are averaging 18.3 turnovers per game and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Minnesota did not make shots in game 1 shooting just 29.3% from the land of the trey, but Im expecting some positive offensive regression, and a Im also projecting that the Thunder continue to matchup well offensively and that we see a higher scoring affair that eclipses this total. This number is low according to my projections. Oklahoma City home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 15-3 OVER with a combined average of 236.2 ppg scored. Oklahoma City when leading on a play off series this season have gone over 4 straight times.

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score closer to 159 giving us a almost a 2 possession edge to the under. Chicago games off a road loss against a division rival have stayed under in 11 of their L/12 overall.Chicago games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 12-2 to the under.

Play under

My. projections estimate a combined score of 168 so this is a under wager for me. 

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - after allowing 90 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 90 points or more are 21-4 UNDER with a combined average of 166.7. ppg scored.

Play under

The Pacers have more depth than the Knicks and thats why Im betting they push the pace here in an attempt to exhaust NYK. (Indiana has nine players playing at least 13 minutes per game in the playoffs) I know the Pacers have slowed their game down since the start of the post season, but knowing the Knicks also want to slow things down and stick to what got them by the Celtics, the Pacers opus operandi will be to force a track meet.  With that said, Im expecting a fairly high scoring game between two teams that can really light up the board when pushed in to action. 

Indiana away or neutral games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are 12-2 OVER this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg.

Indiana away or neutral games after one or more consecutive overs are 19-5 OVER with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored.

Play over

The Padres are expected to start right-hander Randy Vasquez (3-3, 3.45 ERA) on Wednesday. In one career start, he is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA against Toronto.. The  Blue Jays are scheduled to start  right-hander Kevin Gausman (3-4, 4.59) . He has a 2-1 record and 3.35 ERA, in eight career games (seven starts) against the Padres. 

San Diego games vs. an AL starting pitcher like Gausman whose WHIP is 1.300 or better 10-0 UNDER this season. Also San Diego games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 12-2 UNDER with a combined average of 5.5 rpg scored.

 San Diego Padres have only hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 44 games (-10.15 Units / -21% ROI).

Play under 

Rays starting hurler Zack Littell (3-5, 4.31 ERA) has won three times in four starts entering his start on Tuesday. He started the season, 0-5 but has progressively pitched better and better and projects to hold down the fort again tonight. Meanwhile,  Brandon Walter for the start for the Astros. The southpaw pitcher was 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA in nine games (five starts) from Triple-A Sugar Land this year. The University of Delaware product was once considered a top-100 prospect and must not be under estimated in his abilities.   He has a 60% GB %  which will help keep the ball in the park  vs a TB that has one kf the lowest fly ball rates in the league. 

 Under the total is 9-1-2 when the Astros are a  money-line  underdog this season.Houston vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start ia 5-0 this season with a combined average of 5.4 rpg scored. TB is 4-11 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

Play under

Both these teams are off ugly losses to start their season, and will be ready tp bounce back here in aggressive fashion, which Im betting translates into a higher scoring back and forth affair.

Dallas games in a home game where where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points are 8-1 over dating back to last season with a combined average of 181.6 ppg.

Play over

Tampa Bay starter  Pepiot recently  allowed six runs and 13 hits in 16 1/3 innings for a 3.31 ERA with 11 strikeouts and five walks vs New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays, Pepiot ia now uptrending entering this game as he , has lowered his season ERA from 4.24 through his first six starts in March and April. Meanwhile, rookie left-hander Colton Gordon  will make his second career start after allowing three runs and seven hits in 4 1/3 innings in a 4-3 Houston victory over Kansas City on Wednesday. Both bullpens are solid, and both sides have seen their offenses hybrinate for long stretches this season, and here tonight my projections estimate a score that fails to eclipse this total.

Under the total is 8-1-2  when the Astros a ML underdog this season. Tampa Bay games after 3 consecutive games versus an inter-league opponent are 11-2 UNDER this season with a combined average of 7.5 rpg.

Play under

NY Yankees Fried has been one of the baseballs top hurlers this season , recording  a 1.11 ERA with a 3.59 xERA and a 2.86 FIP over his nine starts spanning 56.2 innings of elite work. Meanwhile,  Mets starter Peterson owns a 3.05 ER .  His strength is keeping the ball on the ground ( 55.8%) and his ability to keep the blal in the park as is evident by allowing only four HRS in 44.1 innings over eight starts. The total is a little higher, at 9 than I projected but thats because the wind is blowing straight out to center field. But these are two reliable pitcher and two healthy solid bullpens that allowed just seven combined homers in 100 plus innings. 

 NY Mets games on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 are 5-0 UNDER this season. NY Mets games as a road underdog of +100 to +150 are 9-0 UNDER this season. NY Mets games after a one run win are 9-0 UNDER this season.

Play under

My. projections make this total closer to a 9 run combined output. Note:Under the total is 17-1  in the last 18 games in this series. Washington games against AL East opponents are 7-0 under this season with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored.

Play under

My. projections make this total closer to a 8 run combined output. Note:Under the total is 16-1  in the last 17 games in this series. Washington games against AL East opponents are 6-0 under this season with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored.

Play under

The L/3 games in this series have stayed under the total. Im betting on Denver being very physical and conservative here again in this game tonite, and actively looking to take flow away from the kind of fast game the Thunder want to play. Leading on the last game, Denver made the mistake of speeding up play and the thunder made them pay with a late run, that kind of mistake wont be made twice in a row by this experienced veteran post side group.  This Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair. Ten of the last 14  Game Sixes that have been played the last four playoff seasons have gone Under the total for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play under

  The Astros and game 1 of this series will go  with righty Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA) and the Rangers go with another  righty Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.72 ERA).deGrom is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA at home.Im betting on a pitchers duel between two quality pitchers. Texas games at home with a money line of -100 to -150 are 9-0 UNDER this season.Texas games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. are 14-3 under L/17 opportunities with a combined average of 5.5 rpg scored.

The Warriors down in this series, are going to be much more aggressive offensively with elimination on the table. Im also  betting the Wolves will reciprocate with some faster paced action as this game progresses as they look to finish off their opponents.

Historically, double-digit underdogs like the Warriors  facing a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs with a total of 202.5 or less points are 9-3 OVER overall and on a current 7-0 OVER run! 

NBA team - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 671-497 OVER since 1997 for a 58% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 209.9 ppg.

Play over

Seattles starting pitcher Mariners  Emerson Hancock has  allowed three runs or less in his L/4 four  starts.  When and if he falters he is backed by a Mariners bullpen thant ranks 10th in MLB with a  3.54 ERA. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has recorded a  4.79 ERA in his campaign so far this season, but positive regression according to my numbers should be expected  . He’s backed by a bullpen ranked 13th in ERA at 3.63.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 - on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 168-93 UNDER since 1997 for a 64% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play under

Rays starter Rasmussen (1-3, 3.09 ERA). Rasmussen  has faltered a bit in his  last three starts, allowing 10 runs and 16 hits in 14 1/3 innings. But he is a capable starter and in  his first four starts of this campaign, he recorded a  0.87 ERA while giving up just two runs on 12 hits in 20 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Right-hander Chad Patrick (2-3, 3.08) will get the nod for Milwaukee to face Tampa Bay for the first time in his career which gives him an edge in the familiarity department. The Brewers bats are also very cold right now . Overall Im betting on this game total failing to be eclipsed.  

Tampa Bay games against NL Central opponents are 17-3 UNDER L/20 with combined average score of 6.45 rpg scored. Tampa Bay games after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent have gone under 10 of the L/11 times with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. Tampa Bay games vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game have gone under 17 of the L/22 with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored.

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Play under

After blowing big leads in back to back games at home, the Celtics find themselves down 2-0 in this play off series. This afternoon  Im betting the Celtics come out gunning and running in start to finish fashion, and that Im betting forces the capable Knicks offense to open up in a game Im betting goes over this total. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-5 OVER since 2021 with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored.

Play over

   A’s starter Jeffrey Springs,  has recorded a hefty 4.98 ERA this season and Im betting his ERA does not get much better here vs a Mariners offense that  is  averaging just under 5.7 runs per game. On the flipside , Seattles starting pitcher  Emerson Hancock has recorded a ugly  6.62 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings . Here against a  Athletics batting order  that ranks eighth in the league in home runs per at-bat life should remain miserable on the mound for him. 

The Athletics have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 32% ROI)The Seattle Mariners have only hit the Game Total Under in just 3 of their last 31 games (-11.70 Units / -34% ROI)

Play over

The Braves offense after a slow start is now ranked 10th MLB  in wRC+ over the past two weeks as they have upped their attack  ferociously and have  along with that cut down on the strikeouts ( 16.9% ) for a  .154 Isolated Power ratio . 

Atlanta  now ranks in the top 10 MLB lineups in xBA and hard-hit rate.

They go against the Dodgers starting pitcher Justin May who has seen his last two starts see scores of 7-6,  11-10. 

On the flipside the Dodgers continue to hit well producing an average of 5.42 rpg and matchup well according to my power rankings vs Elders (5.33 ERA). 

LA Dodgers games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) are 8-1 over this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg.

The Dodgers won 10-3 yesterday and Im betting their bats shine again, but this time around the Braves Im betting produce at the same or close to the same level.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 50% ROI)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)

Play over

As we get into the meaty part of the post season, beginning with the 2nd round, teams begin to play a more physical type of game. Im not saying these two offensive juggernauts will not do some scoring Im saying the the totals numbers  the lines-makers produce  are a bit off because of the added toughness teams exhibit at this juncture of the campaign. Note 2nd round totals of 220.5 or more since  2018,  have gone  36-17-1 under for a 70% conversion rate  including 13-0 when 227.5 or higher.

Play under

The Cardinals starter  Fedde went 0-5 five April starts while recording  a 5.40 ERA in those games, allowing 16 earned runs in 26.2 innings of sub par pitching. He's big time fade material in his current form,  Meanwhile, NY Mets will see their starting pitcher Blade Tidwell make his  MLB debut. In the  minor leagues he posted a bloated 5.00 ERA this season and Im betting he gets lit up early and often today in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this totals offering. Key Trend:Saint Louis games after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 7-0 OVER since last season with a combined 13.3 rpg scored.

On May 4th at Busch Stadium, expect cool conditions with temps around 56°F. Humidity at 58.5% shouldn't heavily impact performance, and with no precipitation, the game will be unaffected by rain.

Play over

Down 29 points last time out going into the 4th quarter, Golden state rested all 5 strarters. Warriors' starters played more than 26 minutes in the loss. Now rested Im betting the Warriors come out with all guns blazing and will force the young strong legs of the youthful Rockets to have to step up with some run and gun offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. After a slow start to this series, the last two games have shown a little more tempo and that Im betting will aid in this totals offering being eclipsed. Houston games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread are 28-8 OVER with a combined average of 232.2 ppg.

Play over

The Cubs have been one of the top offenses in MLB this season, and any all pitchers could be in trouble against them.  Here against the Brewers starter Priester who owns a 3.79 ERA, 4.57 xERA and a 4.27 FIP, they matchup well. Meanwhile, the Cubs starter Brown  owns a  a 6.04 ERA, and 4.85 xERA and a 4.17 FIP. so he may not be as bad as his ERA or he just has not yet regressed. time will tell, but his averages tell a stpry of a guy who should give up some runs while hes in. 

The Cubs are ranked  23rd in bullpen ERA and the Brewers are ranked  27th . 

Chicago Cubs away games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 7-0 L/7 dating back to last season with a combined average of 13.3 rpg going on the board.

Play over

 Angels starter Tyler Anderson owns a very sturdy 2.75 ERA in 17 road starts since the start of the 2024 campaign , while allowing just 0.9 home runs per 9 innings on average.  This is a pitchers ball park so Anderson should remain within his usual numbers here va a team my power rankings suggest he matches up well against.  Meanwhile, Mariners starter Emerson Hancock has allowed a total of only  four runs in his  his last two starts spanning 11 innings of stable work. Ive watched him work and hes a clam collective hurler and does not get frazzled. the Seattle righty goes against a Halos offense that ranks last in  MLB  with a ugly  .210 team BA . Note: Seattle home games against left-handed starters like Anderson have gone under in 18 of the L/23 with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored.

 For today's matchup between the Angels and Mariners at T-Mobile Park, expect a pleasant day with a temperature around 66°F. Winds at 6.8 mph blowing in from left field may hinder long balls but won't significantly impact pitching.

Play under

  OKC has won 12 straight games against Memphis,  ans 10 of those 12 games have stayed under the total. This is in part due to the Thunder being the best defensive team in the league  and know how to slow down the Grizzlies. Other than that big time 40 point out put in the first quarter of the last game, the Grizzlies have been more like teddy bears against this strong Thunder D.In the reg season the Grizzlies were a  top 10 for fastbreak pounts team with  (16.7), Here in the post season they have (4.0) and have overall struggled to connect with the trey overall. After that huge surge last time out and still losing they are now highly likely out of gas and could produce a lower scoring output than even the lines-makers expect. The market has adjusted downward on this number, but rightfully so. Note: Memphis games versus below average foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season are 11-1 UNDER.

Play under

There have been more goals than expected early on this series, but the Kings know to win this series they  need to slow down their opponents with their usually tough D., especially here on the road in Edmonton The Kings allowed the second-fewest goals per game  at (2.48) this season and fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. On the flispide , Oilers allowed a solid  2.87  and the ninth-fewest xGA/60. Im betting this game sees the beginning of a tighter type of play off hockey as both  two teams are more than likely to exhibit D first mentalities going forward.  LAK off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more have gone under in 12 of 17 overall. LAK in a road game where where the total is 6 or more have gone under in 8 of 11. Oilers against good defensive teams - opponents average 26.5 or better shots on goal have gone under in 9 of their L/12.

Play under

Its been a physical grinding series so far and Im betting nothing changes tonite.

Minnesota has gone under in 8 of their L/9 overall.LAL has gone under in 4 of their L/5. 

Under the total has converted in six straight head-to-head meetings between these two sides.

PLAY UNDER

White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith has been masterfully keeping his pitches away from home run hitters as is evident by  allowing just one home run in  22 1/3  innings of working spanning   four starts,  while positing a solid   a 2.82 ERA. He now should excwel vs a Twins side ranked  26th in scoring with just over 3.4 runs per game.  On the flipside, Twins starter Chris Paddack ha allowed just three runs  his past two starts,  while showing KO strike out  power  making  11 batters whiff  in just 10 innings. He goes against a  White Sox offense that has averaged just  2.7 runs per game away this season, which ranks 27th in the league. Everything points to a lower scoring early afternoon affair

Play under. 

Under the total is 14-1  in the last 15 games between Washington and Baltimore. My projections estimate a total closer to 8.5 giving us close to a one run cushion on this line.

Play under

Over the total is 16-2   since 2019 in BoSox/Mariners head-to-head games in Boston. My projections estimate 10 plus combined runs will be scored.

Play over

The Timberwolves smashed the Lakers 117-95 in game 1 of this series thanks to strong shooting and physical play. Tonight you can bet the Lakers will respond and with more aggressive body of work and rebound with top tier shooting which will push this total to go over this offering. 

Minnesota versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game are 17-7 0ver.

Minnesota games after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 22-6 OVER with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored.

LA Lakers games off a upset loss as a favorite are 22-8 OVER with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. Lakers off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more are 3-1 over this season.

Play over 

Under the total is 13-1  in the last 14 games between Washington and Baltimore and my projections estimate a 8.4 Total, that is. full hald run below this offering.

Over the total is 15-2   since 2019 in Mariners/BoSox  games in Boston , Fenway. My projections estimate 10 total runs scored, giving us an edge to the over.

OVER

 Celtics are  top tier  three-point attempt TEAM, that ranks 2nd in the NBA and first in made treys will have difficulties getting their shots off or to convert.When they met last time at the end of the season , the Magic shut them down. Orlando is built to slow down teams like the Celtics with a top tier brand of D. The  Magic do not and will not allow pace or space: This is a  top 10 side  in rim protection and also lead the league in opponent three-point conversion  rate. This going to be a grinding physical affair and points will come at a premium. Orlando games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are  11-1 UNDER L/12 .

Play under

The Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo is not throwing heat like he used to and age maybe a contributing  factor. . He is not posting many strikeouts (7.6 per 9 innings) and has recorded a slightly bloated  4.22 ERA and 4.76 fielding independent and 4.3 walks per nine innings. Meanwhile, Blue Jays starting pitcher Easton Lucas has a 4.70 ERA this season, but a 5.19 fielding independent. and owns a ugly lifetime 7.49 ERA. If he falters and he likely will vs the Mariners inconsistent sometimes explosive offense he is backed  by a exhausted bullpen that went 12 innings yesterday.Seattle road games vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season are 12-2 L/14 OVER with a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored.

Play on the over