Cappers Sports Picks

My projections estimate that the total attached to this game between the Sparks and Liberty is closer to the 162 mark thus giving us value with a under wager here as we have at least a one possession cushion in this spot play.

Under is 9-3-1 in Sparks last 13 games following a straight up loss.Under is 21-8 in Sparks last 29 home games.Under is 7-1-1 in Sparks last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Under is 5-0 in Liberty last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 5-1-1 in Liberty last 7 overall.

Under is 3-1-1 in Liberty last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 8-3 in Liberty last 11 road games.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play on the UNDER 

Cards starter Gibson is 7-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 22 starts this season, and has been mostly consistent and nothing Im betting changes tonight. Meanwhile, Carson Spiers the Red starter  despite of average at best pitching numbers is an under rated hurler, as is evident by 1.24 WHIP over 62.2 innings.He goes against banged up Cards offense and very inconsistent attack.Both hurlers according to my power rankings matchup well here against these opposing offenses.  

These teams have gone under 5 straight times this season here in Cincinnati. 

 Five of the Cardinals' last six night games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.90 Units / 19% ROI)

Play on the under

The Rockies starter this afternoon Tanner Gordon  has not been a consistent cog for his team on the hill of late as is evident by  allowing   four runs or more runs  in three of his five starts this season while garnering  6.15 ERA with 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He once again to be lit up by an Arizona side that leads  MLBin scoring   at home averaging  5.4 rpg . Gordon is backed by MLBs worst bullpen as they have garnered a   5.65 ERA Meanwhile, Montgomery the Dbacks  starter has also be sub par and has  recorded a 6.39 ERA this season and a agonizing 8.14 ERA when pitches at home this season. If he falters and Im betting he will , he is backed by a Dbacks bullpen that ranks i 23rd  in MLB with a bloated 4.21 ERA. Even the inconsistent bats of the Rockies can take advantage of this kind of pitcher. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona.

Play on the OVER

Reds starter Greene (8-4, 2.90 ERA) is currently in top form as is evident by a  3-0  record along with a 0.92 ERA in his last six starts which includes 24-inning scoreless streak,.Greene has also garnered a  3.57 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, right-hander Erick Fedde (8-5, 3.28 ERA) goes to the hill for the Cards. According to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings he matches up well here in a game that I project will stay on the low side of the Totals offering. These teams have gone under in all 4 meetings here in Cincinnati this season. 

Play under 

 Under the total is 12-0 in the last 12 games featuring the  Washington Nats  and Baltimore Orioles.

Play under

Twins stater Lopez’s  has recorded a  ERA of 4.74 this season and he is backed by a bullpen that has garnered a  4.41 ERA ranking 22nd in all of  MLB datong back to May1. He allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings against the Chicago Cubs, taking the loss in a 7-3 defeat on Tuesday. He faces a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in   American League at home   averaging 5.1 rpg plus is ranked  3rd in home rpg at as a host.

 Meanwhile,  KCs starter Singer owns a 3.86 ERA away from home more than full run higher on the road as compared to his home ERA of  2.50 . ERA since May 1.  Singer is backed by a relief core that  ranks 25th in MLB with a   4.58 ERA dating back to May 1.   He gave up four runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox last Monday for the loss.. He goes against a Twins offense, that is averaging 4.8 runs per game since the beginning of May ranking 9th in MLB. 

The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI)

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games.

My projections point to this being a higher scoring affair. 

The Guardians send right-hander Ben Lively (10-7, 3.59) to the hill this Monday. My batting order vs pitching power rankings suggests that the red hot Cubs matchup well here. He is 0-2 with a 19.00 ERA after allowing 19 runs on 18 hits .... including eight homers  in nine ugly sub par innings of work.Meanwhile, left hander   Shota Imanaga (9-2, 3.06 ERA)  goes to the hill , vs a Cleveland team that plays their best baseball at home where they own 35-20 record this season. He projects to regress from his current ERA according to overall metrics. Note: The Over  is 8-1 when the Guardians are a  home underdog this season.The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home. 

Play over 

Wacha  KCS starter owns a 4.01 ERA and he is backed by a bullpen that has recorded  4.21 ERA this season, which ranks 20th in MLB.  Overall the pitching staff owns a  3.94 ERA at home. My projections estimate the Cards offense matches up well here and should Wacha some negative regression. Meanwhile the Cards will start  Palante who walks 3.4 batters per nine innings with a 4.43 ERA. Also the  Cardinals bullpen despite of good overall numbers this season have seen negative regression ranking 15th since July 4th  with a 4.00 ERA. The KC  Royals   offense has been potent at home this season averaging  5.2 runs per game  and project to match that output in this spot play.

Play on the over

These teams are familiar with each other as they took part in practices this past week. Both   offenses looked viable against each others defenses in those head to head scrimmages. Both sides exhibited good  QB depth - As the Dolphins floated  Mike White / Skylar Thompson  and the /Falcons ran  Michael Penix/ Taylor Heinicke/Nathan Rourke . I expect we see alot of passing yards here , as WR slots are open for both sides. Both sides Ds, according to my early seasons projections should find weaknesses with depth, thus the latter stages of this game should open up the scoring in a big way. 

Play on the OVER 

 .

Ben Lively goes to the hill for the  Cleveland Guardians today. His  3.42 ERA looks solid but his overall metrics scream negative regression is on the way. He is backed by a solid bullpen, but recently dating back 4 games, this support pitching staff has been over loaded as they are averaging more than 4 innings per game and exhaustion may soon rear its ugly head vs MLBs top scoring side averaging 5.3 rpg. Meanwhile, the Dbacks starter today Brandon Pfaadt, has recorded a 3.97 ERA on the season, but owns a 4.37 road ERA. Here against a Cleveland side averaging 4.9 rpg at home this season Im betting his ERA continues to climb. When Pfaadt leaves this tilt he will be supported by a bullpen with a  4.30 ERA, which ranks just 23rd in the league. Considering the pitching matchup, and offensive trends this contest looks to be a solid over wagering opportunity on this totals offering. 

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 gamesThe total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home.

Play OVER 

 Orioles: Grayson Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP); Blue Jays: Chris Bassitt (8-10, 4.02 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)

Jays starter Bassitt owns a bloated  5.45 ERA in seven career starts against the Orioles and is coming off giving up five runs on nine hits in four innings in last weeks start at Baltimore . Meanwhile, Baltimore is expected  to start right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86). He  allowed four runs (three earned) and six hits over six innings vs the Jays last week ands projects to allow +4 runs in the rematch according to my projections. With the way both offenses are currently operating and the sub par bullpen and pitching narratives that are currently trending negatively Im betting on a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total.

Over their L/10 the  Blue Jays are batting , .287 as a team. While their pitching staff own a  5.64 ERA . On the flipside, the Orioles  own a .294 batting average in their L/10 trips to the diamonds, while recording a  5.42 ERA during that span. 

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 68 games (+18.65 Units / 25% ROI)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Play over

Cleveland lefty starter Allen has not started for his team since early July and projects to get lit up by MLBs top offense(Arizona)  that averages 5.2 rpg. Allen has procured  a 5.67  ERA overall , but has struggled at home where he has recorded a 6.42 ERA ,  Meanwhile, the visiting Dbacks will send Zac Gallen to hill. He owns a 3.56 ERA overall this season  but has not performed well away from home for a long time now where he has garnered a  4.25 ERA  road ERA dating back to last season. When he falters and my projections say -he will vs a Cleveland side averaging 4.9 rpg at home- and  leaves this game the righty will be backed by a  bullpen with a below average  4.30 ERA, ranking  23rd in all of MLB. Looking at the combined average expected output  of the viable offenses as compared to the pitching variables mentioned above a combined score that eclipses this offered total.  . The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games.The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 gamesThe total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home.

The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games at home (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)The Arizona Diamondbacks have only hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 56 games (-24.85 Units / -41% ROI)

Play over

The Texas Rangers are ready for a late season run, and Im betting today vs Nick Pivetta they do significant offensive damage. The BoSox starter has allowed at least three runs in seven of his last nine starts is projected to get lit up by a desperate opponent. note: Bostons  bullpen  owns a ugly  5.15 ERA, which ranks 28th and their current form are also fade material when they enter this game. Meanwhile, Red Sox  is now running all cylinders  averaging  6.7 runs per game since the  All-Star Break entrering weekend action . With Nathan Eovaldi on the hill for the Rangers Im betting on  BoSox continuing their offensive surge . The righty  has allowed 11  runs in his past three starts and projects to allow 4+ runs here today.  Look for both sides to produce significant run production in this Sunday afternoon tilt.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games on the road

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 51 away games (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)

Play on the OVER

Burns is a solid pitcher for the Guardians. But  last season he allowed four runs and eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Guardians. My  projections estimate   regression today vs the Guardians.  Meanwhile, Cleveland starter Gavin Williams (1-3, 3.72 ERA) , goes to the hill for the Guardians. , He is off a solid effort, but  previous to that  six runs, 12 hits and four walks over 9 2/3 innings over his previous two starts, both losses. My projections estimate the potent Baltimore bats tee off here today. The over is 6-1 when Guardians  are a home underdog this season.  

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the roadThe total has gone OVER in 11 of Baltimore's last 12 games.

Play on the over

As won yesterdays filt vs the Dodgers 6-5 and have played well lately. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers will send Jack Flaherty  to the hill today vs the As.  Flaherty  owns a  7-5 record along with a 2.95 ERA this season. However in  his career, the righty has not faired well vs the Athletics going just  0-2 with a 10.97 ERA and the way the As have seen the ball lately projects to regress as compared to current metrics. Meanwhile, the  Oakland A’s expect to start Mitch Spence who owns a  7-6 record along with a 4.47 ERA  this season. This is first appearance vs the Dodgers, and Im betting according to my projections he gets lit up in a big way by MLBs most consistent offense. Everything points to this being a high a fairly  scoring affair that eclipses this value based offering.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Oakland

The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 9 games at home

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)

Play over

PITCHING PROBABLES: Rockies: Tanner Gordon (0-0); Padres: Martin Perez (2-5, 5.20 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) The Rockies scored 5 runs yesterday in a win vs the Padres. It was Colorados 6th win in 8 tries this season vs the Fathers. There was a lack of output yesterday by the Padres but it must be noted that their  hitters are batting  .263, the best team batting average in the NL and own a .293 batting average in their L/10 games. Im betting on the San Diego offense now bgouncing back today vs  starter Tanner Gordon here and Gordon is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA. Meanwhile, the Rockies, have perfromed well recently and are in a groove, and project to hit well and produce 4+ runs here today vs the Padres pitching. Martin Perez the San Diego Padres starter,   is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA  this season. Perez has allowed 27 hits and 12 runs in his last 21.2 innings and owns a  4.24 ERA and .297 allowed batting average in 46.2 of sub par work at home this season.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games.

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)

Play over

The Boston Red Sox will send out Kutter Crawford 6-8 with a 3.60 ERA to the hill here today vs the Rangers. The Right-hander  Crawford was beaten up on by the New York Yankees in his last start, in a  11-8 loss this past Saturday where he allowed five runs on eight hits (three home runs) in just  4 2/3 innings of sub par work.Im betting the Rangers project for 4 plus run here . Meanwhile, my projections also  estimate the Bosox will produce 4+ runs vs the Rangers stating pitcher (  Urena) and bullpen, making a combined score that eclipses this total a high probability event. 

 The Rangers have gone over in 7 of their L/10 games. , Boston combined with its opponents to go eclipse the total  in 8 of their L/10 tilts. 

The Boston Red Sox have only hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 64 games (-20.55 Units / -29% ROI)

Play over

The Cards starter Gray (10-6, 3.79 ERA) is off garnering a 6.75 ERA in four starts during the month of  July.The right hander gave up 18 earned runs on 32 hits in just  24 innings of sub par work. In his last start he allowed five runs on seven hits in a little over  five innings.  . He is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in four career starts at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The Cubs also have offensive momentum entering this game off a 13 run outout yesterday in a win and project to score +5 runs .  Meanwhile, Imanaga , the Cubs starter today ,despite of his strong efforts this season is going against a Cards team that is seeing the ball well right now and are off a 10 run output yesterday vs the Texas Rangers and project to put up +4 runs making this a viable over situation according to my estimations. 

Play over 

Red Sox starter Bello has a projected  .432 expected opponent Slugging Percentage attached to his current season resume , a 43.1 Hard-Hit Rate, and a 4.68 expected ERA. It must also be noted that opposition batting orders are making hard contact against the righty and he looks vulnerable here again according to my projections.Bello owns a  5.27 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 100.2 innings of sub par work. The Bosox pitching staff is near the bottom of MLB with a 5.05 ERA

Meanwhile Mariners starter Kirby despite of a strong season, will go against a Boston Red Sox offense that seeing the ball well .

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games. boston  has allowed at least seven runs in each of their last six games.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+12.60 Units / 17% ROI)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 away games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Tese teams the Mariners and the BoSox have gone over the offered total  in 15 of their L/16 games played here at Fenway Park. 

Play over

Pittsburgh star hurler Skenes was  over powering in his last trip to the hill, as he allowed just two earned runs over eight  plus innings of quality work but still lost because of a lack of run support that seen his team put just one run on the board. With the The Pirates offense extremely inconsistent over the last month, as is evident by ranking 24th ( wRC+ of 98), and recording just a  OPS of .709 they could easily struggle again to provide Skeins with run support.  Skeins is 6-1  along with a miniscule  1.93 in 74 2/3 Innings of top tier work and nothing will change today. Im betting on both sides struggling to score . The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Play under

 PITCHING PROBABLES: Mariners: Luis Castillo (8-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP); Red Sox: James Paxton (8-2, 4.43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)

Mariners starter Castillo is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in three career appearances (all starts) against the Red Sox and On Opening Day this season, he lost to Boston after giving up four runs in five innings. /the way the Red Sox are seeing the ball at the moment Im betting they have more success against him today. Meanwhile, newly acquired James Paxton who actually played for the Red Sox last season goes to the hill here today in Fenway. He has positive winning data, but his ERA ( 4.43 )and WHIP (1.46) are inflated and Im expecting even more negative regression in this spot . Paxton went 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA in 19 starts for the Red Sox last season. Both sides have tired looking bullpens, 

Seattle's relievers have pitched 13 innings in the last 3 games.

Boston's relievers have pitched 10.2 innings in the last 3 games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road

Seattle and Boston have gone  OVER the total 14 of the L/15 times in  head-to-head games in Bostons Fenway Park. 

Play over

 Getting the start for the Braves will be Grant Holmes, who owns a  0-0 record and an ERA of 2.70. He has spent 10 years in thre minors and is a savvy pitcher.  The Atlanta Braves offense is ranked 20th in the NL league, while the pitching is ranked 2nd.  . 

Meanwhile, the Brewers offense ranked 9th in the league, while the pitching is ranked 6th.  The Brewers will start right hander  Colin Rea who has recorded  a 9-3 record  along with a solid  3.60 ERA. 

My projections estimate that both these pitchers matchup well here vs the others batting orders, and that a lower scoring game then lines-makers offering is a viable wager. 

The Atlanta Braves have only hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 92 games (-37.40 Units / -37% ROI)- strong under edge based on the Braves overall play this season.The Atlanta Braves have hitthe Game Total Under in 55 of their last 85 games (+26.20 Units / 28% ROI).

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Play under

Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert (6-6, 2.72 ERA)  has some decent numbers this season , but he looked tired last time out as he  allowed five runs (one earned) in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-1 loss to the visiting Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday. the way Boston has been seeing the ball of late, he could run into more problems in this spot play. Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta (4-7, 4.50)  is off being smashed  for 10 hits and seven earned runs last time out, and also looks vulnerable here. The Bosox bullpen has also looking a little over worked making them vulnerable as well.  Seattle bullpen and pithing have been good this season, but regression is in the cards and Im betting we start to see some of that backwards movement here tonight in a tilt Im projecting to eclipse the total. 

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road

Seattle and Boston have gone  OVER the total 13 of the L/14 times in  head-to-head games in Bostons Fenway Park. 

Play over

Rockies starter  Gomber is 2-6 in 19 starts with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.30 and projects to be more cannon fodder for a Giants offense that is clicking on cylinders entering this game. I know the Giants are expected be without key offensive cog Thairo Estrada, but are still deep enough to compensate as was the case in a 11-4 win in the series opener on Friday. Meanwhile, Jordan Hicks who has made 20 starts this season with just three quality starts goes to the hill for the Giants. He is also 4-7 with a 4.01 ERA and a WHIP of 1.39 and projects to get in lit up in this spot play by the Rockies.

The San Francisco Giants rank 28th in the league for hits allowed this season (924).The Colorado Rockies rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.54).

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.

The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+8.40 Units / 12% ROIThe Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 away games (+4.15 Units / 10% ROI)

Play over

Athletics: Mitch Spence (6-6, 4.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ); Angels: Tyler Anderson (8-8, 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)

The Athletics over their L/10 games have been ripping the ball apart as is evident by a .298 batting average, and Im betting they once again matchup well vs Tyler Anderson the Angels starting pitcher in today series matchup, and are projected to do some early damage against the southpaw hurler . Meanwhile, the Angels despite of their inconsistent offense should also have a decent outing vs Mtich Spencer who sports a 4.67 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP this season. 

When it comes to the over/under, the Athletics and their opponents are 8-2-0 in their previous 10 games.The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing LA Angels.

Play on the OVER

The White Sox Erick Fedde despite of his teams overall dismal performance this season has been a bright spot for the struggling team. The righty thrower owns a sub-3.00 ERA against a 3.65 xERA and according to my projections matches up well vs the Seattle batting order. Meanwhile,Seattle Mariners righty starter  Bryan Woo has proven himself to be a highly consistent pitcher ,   has recorded a  2.54 ERA and 2.50 xERA along with a top tier  2.6% walk rate. Considering both offenses lack of consistent run production - this number despite of being  on the low side of the spectrum is adequately priced and  offers up a higher probability of finishing on the low side of the totals offering.  

The Chicago White Sox have only hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 39 games (-14.50 Units / -34% ROI)The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi White Sox's last 13 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games.

Play under

Carrasco the Guardians starter according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here vs a explosive Phillies  lineup. He is 3-8 in his 18 starts this season along with a bloated 5.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.  Considering the Phillies rank in the top-six of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS its highly like this hurler gets lit up like a Christmas tree. Meanwhile,  Phillips - (Philadelphias starter) looking good in his limited appearances, will go against a viable Cleveland offense, that ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, OPS, home runs and must not be underestimated in their ability to find run production. Current trends show The Phils   have seen an  average score of 5.4-3.7 at home this season , but considering this specific matchup I project a full run difference to be the aggregate giving us an edge with the over offering.The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Cleveland.

Play over

Luis Ortiz is ecpected to toe the rubber for the Pittsburgh Pirates this Friday against Arizona ,He currently owns a  5-2 record along with a stingy  2.57 ERA his season. Ortiz has allowed 14 hits and 2 runs in his last 20.2 innings of top tier work and has recorded a  2.31 ERA and .229 allowed batting average in 35 road innings in 2024. Meanwhile, the Dbaks will send Zac Gallen tp the hill . He owns a 7-5 record along  with a stable  3.64 ERA on the campaign.Gallen has a 3.35 ERA and .246 allowed batting average in 45.2 home innings and in his career vs the Pirates owns a 3.04 ERA My projections estimate these hurlers will go long and strong here today in what could end up in a pitchers duel.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games. 

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)

Play under

The Red Sox will hand the ball to Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.27 ERA). He's had a fortunate campaign as compared to his overall metrics and does not matchup well here vs the Yankees offense according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings . Meanwhile, the Yankees starter Nestor Cortes (4-9, 3.99) has lost back-to-back starts  as he goers to the hill at  Fenway Park tonight. The left-hander allowed six runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings last Saturday against the Rays.Cortes is 2-0 with a 4.89 ERA in 11 career appearances (five starts) against Boston. With that said, Im expecting these two strong offenses to tee off on each other here tonight, and for the Green Monster to see alot of action. 

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+10.80 Units / 17% ROI)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+15.15 Units / 29% ROI)The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 gamesThe total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Yankees's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games.

Play over

Probable pitchers: Giants: Logan Webb (7-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 111 strikeouts); Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (0-0). Kershaw returns after missing the first forur months of the seasons after shoulder surgery..Last season despite discomfort  the future Hall of Fame candidate  recorded a a 13-5 record and a 2.46 ERA in 24 starts last year and is now ready to resume his career here tonight against a SF side that has recorded  a lowly  .215 BA over their L/10 games. Kershaw's 59 outings and 57 starts against San Francisco are his most against any team. He has amassed  a stingy  2.01 ERA and has 402 strikeouts in 393 1/3 innings. Note -  Giants are hitting .210 in L/17 games played.

Meanwhile, The Giants will send  Logan Webb (7-8, 3.59) to the hill to face the Dodgers. ,  . In three starts against the Dodgers this season, Webb is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA and looks to matchup well against vs a team that has a .239 BA in their L/10 games overall. Webb also has a 3.16 ERA in seven games against the National League West division. The Giants entire pitching staff has generally done well, as is evident of their  3.66 ERA in their L/10 tilts overall.The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games. I m betting the pitching staffs taking center stage tonight in a tit that will fail to eclipse this totals offering. 

Play under

PITCHING PROBABLES: Orioles: Chayce McDermott (0-0); Marlins: Edward Cabrera (1-3, 7.36 ERA, 1.67 WHIP .

 The Baltimore Orioles have averaged  5 runs per game in this season in offense, which ranks  them No.1 in all of MLB in run production. They go against a Marlins  pitching staff that  rank 26th in MLB in total hits allowed with 869. They are ranked 28th in MLB with a save percentage of 51.4% so the relief group is far from stable as well.  According to my pitcher vs offense power rankings the Os matchup up very well vs Edward Cabrera the Marlins expected starter and could produce early run production early here today which will help us eclipse this total. On the flipside the Marlins despite of lackluster overall offensive numbers have picked up the pace of late and as a team are hitting .277 over their L/10 games and Im also projecting significant run production vs McDermott Baltimores expected starter. Everything points to runs crossing the plate here with enough consistency for this number to be eclipsed.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road.

The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 54 games at home (+18.50 Units / 31% ROI)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 away games (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Play over

Marsh will toe the rubber for KC this  Tuesday night. He is  4-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in ten home outings (47.2 IP) and according to my pitcher vs batting order matches up well here vs the visiting  DBacks.  Here at home he has allowed 1 run less per game than on the road. The righty has held four of his last six offenses  to three or less runs  and has allowed a total of just 7 runs overall during that span. He is backed by a  Kansas City bullpen that second-fewest HR allowed .  Meanwhile, Dbacks starter  Montgomery despite of a inconsistent  season, offers up southpaw pitching to a Royals side that can sometimes find the sledding tough vs lefties. Also previous to Mondays negative performance the Diamondbacks' rotation posted a 2.89 ERA in the previous 11 games. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games.

Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1) (3.51) vs Zack Wheeler (10-4) (2.70).

Two quality pitchers go to the hill today with Philadelphias Wheeler toeing the rubber for the  Phillies and Woods-richardosn taking the ball for the Twins. Yes, these teams have formidable offenses but these pitchers of are the top tier variety and runs wont come as easily as the public expects.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road. 

Play under

Oaklands offense has been on a tear as is evident by , ranking third (123 wRC+) in MLB  the L/30 days and including ranking  (11th vs. right handed hurlers , 1st vs. left handed throwers). Here against the.Astros right-handed Spencer Arrighetti (4-7, 5.63 ERA), who has pitched into the seventh inning just twice in his 17 starts this season Im betting the As tee off. 

 Meanwhile, the Astros during the same span  rank 9th (111 wrC+) and 16th vs. right handed pitching and , 10th against south paw hurlers ). According to my power rankings the Asserts marchup well against the As left-hander Hogan Harris (1-3, 3.40)  and should do significant damage offensively. 

Winds are blowing out to center field and things look set for a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are estimating. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 gamesThe total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home.

Play over

Seattles startewr Woo has made nine starts this season and has allowed one run or less  in 6 of those games and matches up well here vs the Houston bats. Meanwhile,Houston sends Ronel Blanco, to the hill .He owns a  2.56 ERA with a 3.56 xERA and also matches up well here vs the Seattle batting order according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings.Blanco has  given up exactly two runs in each of his last three starts. What Im betting on here today is for both pitchers to go long and strong and for this score to stay on the low side of the totals offering.

The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Under the total is 8-1 this season in head-to-head series.

Play on the under

 Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado today  and is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and  this season. His pitching opponent from the Giants, Logan Webb   is 7-7 along  with a 3.47 ERA. His away efforts never seem to match his road outings from a negative perdspective.  My projections estimate that both pitchers will find the sledding tough today in the launching pad know as Coors field. 

San Francisco’s pitching has not been efficient this season, allowing an average of 4.40 runs per game. Opponents own a .260 batting average vs Giants, which ranks them  28th in the league. The Giants  4.41 ERA ranks them  23rd, while their 1.35 WHIP ranks  26th.

Meanwhile, Colorado’s pitching staff has been atrocious  allowing  5.52 runs per game. Opponents have a .289 batting average against the Rockies, ranking them a dismal  30th in the league. Their 5.61 ERA is also 30th, as is their 1.55 WHIP.

The Colorado Rockies have only hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 65 games (-11.70 Units / -16% ROI) The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 gamesThe San Francisco Giants have only hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 65 games (-17.95 Units / -25% ROI) 

Play over

Offensively Minnesota has struggled of late scoring  just 68.5 points per game during their current two game losing streak. Meanwhile Atlanta has been an inconsistent offensive threat  this season averaging just 75 points on 40.8% shooting from the floor. Considering early start times, have teams starting slowly and a less cohesive event is highly likely according to my projections which give credence to a lower scoring affair. 

Under is 7-0 in Lynx last 7 overall.Under is 6-0 in Lynx last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-0 in Lynx last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-0 in Lynx last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-0 in Lynx last 5 home games.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 Wednesday games.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.

Under is 4-0 in Dream last 4 overall.Under is 4-0 in Dream last 4 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-1 in Dream last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-1 in Dream last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Dream last 6 Wednesday games.Under is 5-1 in Dream last 6 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-1 in Dream last 5 road games.

Play under

The under is 14-1-2 over the past 17 All Star Games. The last four all star games have all gone under. The offense never gets set or into a groove as there are so many pitching changes .

Play under

Marquez after 14 months off to recover from Tommy John surgery goes against  Mets left-hander Jose Quintana (4-5, 3.91 ERA).Marquez went 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA in seven rehab appearances and Im betting his return will not be a glorious one vs a Mets side, that has become more consistent offensively as they season has progressed. Note: The Rockies owna  5.61 team ERA so when the bullpen enters Im not expecting much stopping power vs a Mets side that is 27-12 L/29 games. 

. I knowq the Mets Quintana is off a positive outing last time out, pitching 7 scoreless innings but  he  is 3-3 with a 5.09 ERA in nine career games (eight starts) against the Rockies and Im now expecting immediate regression in this spot play situation. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road.

The L/4 meetings in this series have easily eclipsed this totals offering - with 7-3,7-6,11-10, 10-7 scores going on the board. My prjections estimate a combined score closer to 10 giving us at least !+ run advantage to the over/ 

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)The Colorado Rockies have only hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 63 games (-11.70 Units / -17% ROI)

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score in the 175 range giving us close to 2 possession edge for an over bet to cash. Dallas has issues with playing defensive ball and instead push forward with an all out offensive style of hoops.  Dallas lost a 100-84 decision in Phoenix on Wednesday, continuing to highlight their  soft defensive stance, and admirable offensive work. Both sides have injury woes with key players out, but their brand of lower tier hoops seems to not optimize their defensive capabilities or inabilities. I know the Los Angeles shot 41.1 percent from the floor and produced its second-worst scoring total of the season last time out, vs a top tier Lynx group, but now Im betting on positive regression after that frustrating effort vs a porous opponent. 

Over is 9-2 in Wings last 11 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-2 in Wings last 10 Saturday games.Over is 19-7 in Wings last 26 home games.Over is 18-7-1 in Wings last 26 games following a ATS loss.Over is 18-7-1 in Wings last 26 games following a straight up loss.Over is 35-15-1 in Wings last 51 overall.

Over is 5-1 in Sparks last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

Play over-Play as high as 172

Hayden Wesneski (3-5, 3.67 ERA) will start Game 1 of this double header  for Chicago. My pitcher vs batting order projections estimate the Cards offense matches up well here. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, who have lost three consecutive games, will start Lance Lynn (4-4, 4.48 ERA) in Game 1 of today's DD.  Lynn in his last start gave up 11 runs (10 earned) on nine hits, including three homers, and four walks against the Washington Nationals on July 6.Lynn has struggled against the Cubs in his career, going 6-8 with a 5.43 ERA in 24 career appearances, including 23 starts. Considering the pitching matchup, the Cubs current output metrics and  and what I estimate will see some early scoring an over wager here makes for a viable betting option.The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games. The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.05 Units / 13% ROI).

Play over

The Chicago Cubs have their offense performing at optimal levels entering this game against the St.Louis Cardinals. The Cubs won five of their last six games  while scoring 33 runs in those victories and yesterday scored 8 runs in shut out win vs the Orioles. Im betting the Cubbies continue to hit with power vs a hurler in Gray that despite of of having a good season, has regressed of late, allowing  11 runs (eight earned) on 15 hits in his L/ 9 1/3 innings of work spanning two starts. Also the Cards bullpen took 6-4 and 8-5 losses this past Wednesday, obviously not looking good in the process and could be showing signs of fatigue as the All Star break begins. Meanwhile,  the Cubs respond with  Kyle Hendricks (1-7, 7.53 ERA) on the hill.  The rightly, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks in a 7-0 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday. He retired just 6 hitters and according to my power rankings does not matchup well vs this group of Cards hitters. Considering my projections and both sides current form a over wager here has the highest probability offs to give us bankroll expansion. 

Chi Cubs's relievers have pitched 8.2 innings in the last 3 games.St. Louis's relievers have pitched 11 innings in the last 3 games.

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)

Play on the over

My. projections estimate  that we will see a track meet take hold here tonight.  Ny number comes in at the 2nd highest projected  output of the season, of 177.5 which gives us close to full 2 possession edge on the offered number.

Winners of three in a row, Phoenix (12-10) is in a groove and ready to run and gun with a Catlin Clark led Fevers side that will have no problem pushing the action in response to what promises to be an aggressive opponent playing with momentum. Biggest problem for the Fever is a lackluster D, that the Mercurys sharp shooters will have no problem taking advantage of. 

The Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Indiana.

Over is 4-1 in Fever last 5 home games.

Over is 7-3 in Fever last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play over

Luis Castillo is expected to go to the hill for the Mariners. The veteran LH is 7-9 with a 3.72 ERA this season with average at best metrics. The hard throwing hurler  has allowed 99 hits in 111 innings while giving up 15 home runs. Meanwhile, the Angels rookie starter Kochanowicz gets a start in the  rotation because of injuries. . Pitching at home has not been kind to him in  double AA this season with a 4.55 ERA in 91 innings .Im betting the Mariners knock him and their pitching staff around today and for the Angles up trending offense ( scored 7 runs yesterday vs the Rangers in a 7-2 win) will do some damage in this spot and help us easily eclipse the total according to my projections. The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home.

Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)

Play over

I know we have two top tier offensive lineups with the Dodgers and Phillies going head to head, but this contest looks like two strong pitchers and bullpends may over come the tremendous strength of the offenses in this this particular tilt. 

Dodgers starter Stone is 9-2 on the campaign and is garnering a solid  3.03 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, Average Exit Velocity, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate. Meanwhile, the Phillies left handed  starter Sanchez  is also having a strong season as is evident by a  6-4 record along  with a 2.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He is in the 67th percentile in xERA, Average Exit Velocity, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate and has a knack of keeping the ball on the ground - as  he ranks in the 96th percentile. Both hurlers are backed by strong bullpens that  rank in the top six of the league in ERA. The Phillies have been particularly viable with a  2.98 ERA in the last month of play. 

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home.

Play under

All three meetings between these teams this season have been high scoring affairs and Im betting nothing changes here today. Scores of  104-96 /97-90/ 107-92 have all eclipsed the offered total. Rinse and repeat situation now on board. 

Over is 5-1-1 in Wings last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. 

Play on the over

Sale was supposed to start yesterday for the Braves , but got pushed back and thats a good thing for the senior star hurler. Sale (11-3, 2.71 ERA) during this campaign and  is tied for the major league lead in victories and go long and strong here today. Sale has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his past 12 starts and is is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in three career games (two starts) against Arizona and deserves respect in his current form.Meanwhile, Arizonas starter  Zac Gallen is a top tier hurler ,  and currently owns a (6-4, 3.06)  record and finished third in National League Cy Young Award race last season, and also owns a solid 2-0 record along with a stingy 2.45 ERA in four career starts against Atlanta. Yesterdays tilt bwtween these sides,  was low scoring , and saw a the DBacks with a 3-1 lead in the 9th before the Braves scored 2 runs and tied it and than it went to extra innings seeing Atlanta take a 5-4 victory with the over being eclipsed in heart breaking fashion. Now Im betting another low scoring affair that projects to stay on the low side of the number, with the 9 inning range thanks to two top tier hurlers taking part in what has a strong possibility of being a pitcher duel. 

Arizona vs . NL East/Central has seen 20 of 31 contests go under. 

Play under

Tampa Bay are expected to start right-hander Ryan Pepiot on Tuesday. Pepiot (4-5, 4.40 ERA).  Note: Pepiot has never had fewer than two strikeouts in any MLB game, as a starter or reliever, and that means contact for the Yankees is on todays agenda. He has  failed to complete six innings in each of his last four starts and Im betting on that trend remaining intact today. 

Meanwhile, NYY Rodon (9-6, 4.45 ERA) is in in down mode after losing his last four starts. Last time out , he struck out eight and allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday in a loss to the Reds. But previous to that  he surrendered 21 runs (20 earned) over 13.2 innings in three starts. 

These pitchers go against offenses that have been inconsistent of late, but from power ranking perspective the batting orders matchup well here. I wont be surprised if we come close to eclipsing this totals offering early on this game in a tilt I project to eclipse the total. 

Play over

These teams have not hit their team expected runs total  lately, which may mean they are under achieving according to the lines-makers numbers/projections  , or are settling into  a more consistent phase of offensive output.  What ever it is both sides are not living up to offensive expectations as the totals betting data shows. Note: The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI) The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 away games (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)The Atlanta Braves have only hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 76 games (-35.40 Units / -43% ROI)- My projections concur with some of the trends, which make this contest according to my projections lower scoring than the offered number. 

Yes, I am aware the Dbacks offense has been on a tear  in their last few games  but here immediate regression against a top tier pitcher is at hand. 

Braves starting pitcher Sale (11-3, 2.71 ERA) is tied for the major league lead in victories and ranks sixth in strikeouts (127) and eighth in ERA. Sale is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in three career games (two starts) against Arizona. Meanwhile, the Dbacks will send out Diaz, 23,  who is the teams ' No. 16 prospect. He has struck out 105 in 76 minor league innings this season. The Braves lack of familiarity with him gives the young fireballer and advantage here .    The Atlanta Braves have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 games. 

Play under

The Sun are 1-1 against the Dream this season, dropping the last contest 78-74 on June 28 in Connecticut. Current values and play estimations make for an even lower scoring affair this afternoon. Last time out on Thursday night, the Connecticut Sun took a  78-73 road victory over the Minnesota Lynx and Im betting will continue to play a top tier brand of defensive hoops. 

My projections estimate a score in the mid 140s giving us a more than 2 possession advantage to the under. 

Play under 

Mystics just got smashed by DDs vs the Aces last time out and to me looked exhausted for whatever reason. Maybe being injury riddled and short handed has finally got the best of the best of this young group from DC.  That does not bode well for them having the legs needed today vs a motivated group of Lynx whoare off a humbling loss to Connecticut at home t after a fast start to their campaign. With that said, I expect the Mystics just wont have the tenacity needed to  play strong D in this spot and for the Lynx to highlight a more aggressive offensive posture in an attempt to alleviate the letdown of a key loss last time out .   This  Im betting will lead to a score that eclipses this totals offering. 

Play on the over

Yesterdays game between these two teams was low scoring with the Rangers winning 3-0. However, my projections for this game estimate a combined score in the 9 plus range giving us value with this offering. 

Tampa Bays starter Taj Bradley goes to the hill for the Tampa Bay Rays, today vs the Rangers. He owns a  3-4 record aling  with a 3.42 ERA and 72 strikeouts this season. Bradley in recent action has allowed 27 hits and 13 ERS  in his last 32.1 innings of sub par work. He has struggled on the road as is evident by a  8.16 ERA and .339 allowed batting average in 14.1 innings away from home.  Bradley is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 13 strikeouts in his career against the Texas Rangers and is on my charts to be lit up here today against a sometimes explosive Rangers offense. Meanwhile the Ranges send ,Andrew Heaney to the mound . the southpaw is  is 3-9 with a 4.04 ERA and 85 strikeouts this season. Heaney has allowed 30 hits and 13 runs in his last 34.1 innings, so he is a target pitcher that can be beaten around. Heaney has a 4.98 ERA and .221 allowed batting average in 34 plus  innings of work at home. Heaney is also an ugly 0-5 with a 3.68 ER in his career against the Tampa Bay Rays. Note: Current Rangers arr hitting .286 with a .394 OBP in 28 at bats against Bradley. With that said, Im betting on both starters to give up multiple runs today and for the bullpens to have mop up issues. 

Play on the over 

 The Padres send righty Randy Vásquez to the hill against the Dbacks this Friday nite. He is  2-4 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in his 11 starts. Vasquez is 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA and 5 strikeouts in his career against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Diego’s bullpen has been inconsistent this year, allowing 4.3 runs per game.

Meanwhile, Right-hander Slade Cecconi is expected to start for the Dbacks The righty is  2-6 with a bloated 5.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 12 outings (11 appearances) this year. He has particularly been inefficient on the road, where he recorded a  0-3 record with an 11.65 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in four outings spanning 17 innings.

Both hurlers according to my projections do match up well here against these offenses. 

Arizona ranks 6th in OBP (.324), 11th in OPS (.728), 19th in home runs (86), and 8th in RBI (391). Meanwhile , their pitchi g staff   pitching staff  4.66 ERA ranking (29th) and 1.36 WHIP (27th).

San Diego ranks 5th in OBP (.325), 9th in OPS (.734), 9th in home runs (100), and 5th in RBI (402). The Padres' pitching staff has been average at best with a 4.08 ERA (18th) and 1.27 WHIP (17th) on the camapign.

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.10 Units / 22% ROI)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)

The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Diego's last 12 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games.

Play over

Mystics are banged up but still seem to find the depth to score, but their Achilles heel seem to  have shown some defensive break downs to top tier teams and thats what Im betting on tonight. Meanwhile, the Aces are more cohesive offensively on their own home floor and a expanded offensive outing, above their current metrics looks to be a high probability event giving credence to my over wager in this spot play situation. Vegas scored a 88-77 win in DC in their previous meeting in June, and a even higher offensive output by Vegas is projected here , with the Mystics frantically chasing. 

Play over

Minnesota usually reliable D failed them last time out vs the Liberty , after leading that game for a majority of the time they fell apart late for the loss. Now in bounce back mode, Im sure a complete defensive effort vs the Sun wlll be in order. Also this will be an emotional  hangover spot for the Lynx and Im betting they wont have the legs to run and gun and will be alot more subdued after their Commissioner Cup rematch against NYL. Meanwhile, the Suns, have not looked as explosive offensively as they did earlier this season, and have reverted to a more structured conservative  defensive type of hoops. This combination of observations and my power ranking head to head  projections estimate a combined score that will fail to eclipse this total. 

Play under

The As took the opner ins this series by a 7-5 count and my projections estimate a total of closer to 9 for this affair giving us a full 1 run advantage to the over. 

Pitchers:  Angels: Davis Daniel (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, eight strikeouts); Athletics: Joey Estes (2-3, 5.24 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 39 strikeouts.Angles starter Daniel has seen limited action  Meanwhile, the As  Estes has seen more action with but has garnered sub standard metrics. Both hurlers project to allow above season averages.

The Athletics have proven a inconsistent offensive side, but they  rank fifth in the AL with 99 total home runs, averaging 1.1 per game. Oaklands pitching has been their Achilles heel, as is evident by a recent  5.51 ERA in this L/10 games and overall have allowed 4.82 runs per game. 

The Angels are averaging 4.19 runs per game , while their pitching is giving up 4.95 runs per game and are projected to maintain those numbers in todays tilt. The Halos  offense is ranked 19th in the league, while the pitching is ranked 27th.

The Los Angeles Angels have only hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 69 games (-9.20 Units / -12% ROI)T he total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Angels's last 8 games on the road.

Play over

The teams have split their first two meetings this season. Dallas took a 107-92 in Phoenix on May 25, while the Mercury found a way past the Wings in a 97-90 double-overtime road victory on June 9. Im betting on more fast paced action and scoring here today in a rinse and repeat situation. 

Play over 

The Mystics are a hard working team with alot of chemistry and top tier coaching. Despite of a boatload  full of injuries they keep competing . In what the lines-makers expect to be a very close game here in LA, Im betting both these sides, ( Mystics/ Sparks) take  part in a back and forth affair that eclipses the total.  

Play on the OVER 

Yesterday southpaw  Rob Zastryzny became the 15th different  hurler to to take to hill for the injury ravaged Milwaukee pitching state .   The Brewers lost the opening game of this series with a  8-7 loss to the Colorado Rockies in the launching pad known as Coors Field. .Today Milwaukee will start newly acquired starter Keuchel, which since winning the Cy Young award  9 seasons ago has been down trending. He was  7-4  along with a 3.39 ERA in 13 starts with Triple-A Tacoma at the time of the trade . The 36 year old is  1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against the Rockies. He is 0-1 with an 11.74 ERA in two appearances (one start) in Denver. We all like a great comeback story but Im betting it wont happen today, and Im expecting the Rockies to tee off on him .  Meanwhile, Colorado,  will start right-hander Ryan Feltner (1-7, 5.82 ERA).Feltner is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in two career starts against Milwaukee and Im also betting on the Brewers bats do some damage here again today. I expext both these pitchers will not last long, and for the bullpens to also meet the reaper in a park that regularly chews up the best of pitchers.  

Brewers have 7-2-1 to the over L/10 overall while batting .294. 

Rockies go for their 3rd straight win and have won their L/5 at home vs the Brewers with consistent hitting being the catalyst. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 81 games (+11.40 Units / 13% ROI)The Colorado Rockies have only hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 51 games (-11.05 Units / -20% ROI)

Play over 

Right-hander Bryse Wilson (5-3, 3.89 ERA) is scheduled start the opener for the Brewers while left-hander Austin Gomber (1-5, 4.63)  goes to the hill for the Colorado Rockies. Gomber was 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in five June starts. Gomber’s last five starts has seen him  surrender 24 runs over his last 23 innings. Brewers starter Wilson is  3-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road (40.2 IP) .The Colorado Rockies rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.60) with an opposing side ,288 opponent batting average.

Today the wind is expected to be blowing in at Coors Field  , but the thin air of the Rockies, and the launching pad known as Coors Field and sub par to average pitchers on the mound will be the key ingredient in what Im cooking up to be a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this totals offering. We cant forget how explosive the Brewers bats have been of late and they could eclipse this Totals offering all by themselves.  Note: In their L/5 games the Brewers have four grand slams.

Eight of the Brewers’ last nine games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total .Each of the Rockies’ last seven night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total.

Play over

Minnesota came out flat  against Dallas this past  Thursday, but this is to good of a team to not get back into a groove quickly . Im betting on a shut down performance from their D , after a couple of uncharacteristically high scoring games and for a lower combined score to be a result of this tilt which in-turn gives us an edge on a under wager. 

Play under

Yesterday the  Yankees lost their second game of this series with a  9-3 loss the day after a 16-5 beat down of the Blue Jays. The Yankees' bullpen allowed six runs in just the last three innings in the loss and Im betting things dont get much better today as Cole goes to the hill for just the third time since coming of the injury list . His fast ball is only clocking in at around 94-95 miles an hr compared to his usual 98-99 mile range, which tells me he is still a few games from getting back into a healthy groove. The Cy Young award winner also owns a ugly  ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.88 in his two starts.  Meanwhile, his pitching opponent, Gausman  is 6-6 in 16 starts during this campaign with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.27. Gausman has allowed 90 hits in 86.2 innings this season and  has allowed 13 home runs on the season. With that said, and considering both sides have shown some offensive swagger in the first three games of this series Im betting on enough runs to cross the plate here for this totals offering to be eclipsed.

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.75 Units / 47% ROI)

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.10 Units / 42% ROI)

Play over

The Oakland A’s will send out Hogan Harris for the start . He is  1-1 with a 2.72 ERA and 28 strikeouts this season. Meanwhile, Arizona sends out top tier hurler Gallen (5-4, 3.12 ERA) who finished third in National League Cy Young balloting last season . He also was the NL's starting pitcher in the All-Star Game. Gallen has been off for a month but pitched well in a simulated game and looks strong enough to go long here in this spot. Arizona is looking for a stopper, after a bad run off overall team pitching and will be primed to hold an inconsistent  As offense down. Yes, the As scored 9 runs yesterday but have only score more than 2 runs two times twice in thier L/6 games and overall have scored an average of 3.2 rpg on the road this season. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Play under

Yankees: Luis Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 97 strikeouts); Mets: Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 73 strikeouts)

These teams took part in a 9-7 slugfest yesterday with the Mets pulling off the victory. Tonight Im betting on immediate offensive regression as the pitching staffs will be primed to bounce back. 

NY METS are 18-7 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored. NY METS are 13-4 UNDER  in home games vs. a starting pitcher like NYY expected starter Gill who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 6.6 rpg scored. NY METS are 20-8 UNDER in home games against right-handed starters this season like NYY expected starter Gill. NY METS are 15-5 UNDER in home games in night games this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scorec. 

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (NY METS) - allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 33-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Left-hander Ranger Suarez (10-1, 1.75 ERA) of the National League East-leading Philadelphia Phillies will be opposed by Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal (8-3, 2.50).Note: Motowns bullpen owns a 4.70 ERA at home this season. Both hurlers according to my projections are in negative regression territory based on overall metrics giving us an edge to cash an over ticket. 

DETROIT is 12-2 OVER L/14 in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher like Suarez whose ERA is 2.40 or better with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. 

DETROIT is 11-1 OVER  in home games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored. 

DETROIT is 10-2 OVER  at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season with a combined average of 9.2 rog scored. 

Play over

Right-hander Griffin Canning (2-8, 5.02 ERA) goes to hill  Monday for the Angels. Canning is winless in his last six starts, and is  2-4 with a 4.56 ERA in nine career starts versus Oakland.

Right-hander Luis Medina (1-2, 4.71) will make his fifth start of the season for the A's,  . Medina has faced the Angels once in his career, giving up eight runs (seven earned)  in a  11-3 loss on April 26, 2023.

Angels have given up an average of 5.1r pg on the season and 5.4 rpg at home. The As have allowed 5.1 rpg vs RHP like Canning. 

When factoring in both starting pitchers and bullpen assignament avaliabilty a higher scoring tilt is my projection. 

LA ANGELS are 16-6 OVER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. 

OAKLAND is 17-4 OVER  after getting shut out over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. 

Play over

My projections make this total closer to the 151 range which in turn according to my numbers give us a big edge for an under wager to cash here today as the Sun and Storm do battle in west coast WNBA early afternoon action. Under is 6-0 in Storm last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 5-0 in Sun last 5 vs. Western Conference.

Play under

These teams  the Sparks and the Liberty just played and the total combined score of the game eclipsed the total (173), and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today in the rematch.note: NYL have scored 90 points or more in 4 straight but have allowed 80 or more points in what have been wide open run and gun affairs.  

Over is 4-0 in Liberty last 4 home games. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in New York.

NEW YORK is 15-6 OVER  in home games after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 170.3 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 23-12 OVER  after allowing 75 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 172 ppg scored. 

Play over

Chris Sale is the expected starter for the  Atlanta Braves. The veteran hurler has looked good as is evident by his s 9-2 record along  with a 2.98 ERA and 99 strikeouts this season. The southpaw has  allowed 19 hits and 12 runs in his last 18 innings and a 3.16 ERA and .222 allowed batting average in 31.1 road innings. Sale also owns a  solid  3.12 ERA and 157 strikeouts in his career vs  the New York Yankees. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon will go the hill for the  New York Yankees,  is 9-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season.  Rodon has a 2.30 ERA and .182 allowed BA in 31.1 home innings. Rodon is also 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 18 strikeouts in his career against the Atlanta Braves. Both hurlers are backed by sold bullpens. 

Wind is blowing in here today, and with 2 high strike out pitchers on the hill, a lower scoring edge must be expected . 

ATLANTA is 10-0 UNDER  vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 6.2 rpg .ATLANTA is 18-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. ATLANTA is 21-6 UNDER  in an inter-league game this season with a combined average of 7.6 rpg. 

NY YANKEES are 15-3 UNDER after allowing 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons which happened yesterday in a 17-5 loss vs Baltimore. 

Play under

 The first 3 games of this series all went over the Total -with 9-5, 11-9, 7-6 scores going on the board and when considering todays pitching matchup and offensive alignments another higher score is the final projected outcome.  LAs starter Stone (7-2, 3.01 ERA) will be opposed by Colorado southpaw Ty Blach (3-4, 4.65).  Stone despite of decent numbers, has failed to get out of the fourth inning twice in his first four starts, and is in a regressionary mode. Meanwhile, the Rockies starter Blach ( (5.18 xERA, 8.3% K-BB%, 71 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+) has pitched  well at Coors Field this season , as is evident by a solid  3.76 ERA in eight appearances, including six starts, but his overall metrics according to my power ratings do not matchup well vs this very explosive Dodgers offense. so with that said, Im expecting the launching pad known as Coors Field to once again host an all out slugfest

Colorados bullpen owns a 5.91 ERA on the season. LA DODGERS in 21 games vs. a team with a struggling  bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse over the last 3 seasons have averaged 7 rpg on offense. 

COLORADO  in their L/90  home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons have scored an average of 5.1 rpg. 

.BLACK is 35-22 OVER  in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs as the manager of COLORADO with a combined average of 12.5 rpg scored over that 57 game span. 

My line projection total estimate comes in at 13 so an over wager gives us an edge for bankroll expansion.

Play over

My power rating projection system, estimate that the combined score of this contest will fall in the mid 150s range giving close to a 2 possession value wager to the under. WNBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent against opponent off 3 consecutive wins against division rivals are 60-31 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

MLB  teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - terrible offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ER 4.20 to 4.70 or better )-AL, after allowing 9 runs or more are 33-8 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

SF starter is WEBB is 15-4 UNDER  vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.4 rpg. WEBB is 30-18 UNDER  in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record with a combined average of 7.1 rpg scored. Webb owns a 3.02 ERA on the season.

Meanwhile Cubs starter Steele has pitched well of late and  lowered his ERA from 5.68 to 3.22 over his past four starts. He threw six shutout innings in his most recent tip to the hill  on Thursday against the host Tampa Bay Rays. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest he matches up well here vs the Giants bats. 

Im projecting a total score in the range of 8 to 9 runs giving us at least a full run value to the under. 

COUNSELL is 18-7 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start as the manager of CHICAGO CUBS with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. 

MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a winning percentage of between 46-49% on the season are 31-6 UNDER  L/5 seasons  for a 84% conversion rate.

TEXAS is 18-6 UNDER  vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season like Mariners starter Gilbert with a combined average of 7.1 rpg scored.

Seattles starter GILBERT   in 12 home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) has seen a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored.  GILBERT  in 25  at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) has seen a combined average of 7 rpg scored. 

GILBERT is 7-0 UNDER  as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. (Team's Record) with a combined averag eof 4.8 rpg scored. 

SEATTLE in 30 games  at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season have seen a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored.SEATTLE in 21 games against division opponents this season have seen a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. 

Five of the Mariners' last six games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total .Five of the Rangers' last six games as underdogs against the Mariners have gone UNDER the total .

12 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons here in Seattle.

Play under

Chicago Cubs (34-37) vs St. Louis Cardinals (34-35) Game Info: Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 1:05 pm (Wrigley Field)Jameson Taillon (3-2) (3.09) vs Miles Mikolas (4-6) (4.85).

Taillon  threw six shutout innings against the Rays last time out and has momentum entering this game/start. TAILLON is 5-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.157.

Mikolas has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last five trips the hill and has allowed just two total earned runs in his last two appearances. 

MIKOLAS is 20-9 UNDER  in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons.(Team's Record) for a combined average of 8.1 rpg. MIKOLAS is 8-0 UNDER in road games this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored.  MIKOLAS is 5-4 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.182.

ST LOUIS is 15-6 UNDER  vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season with a combined average of 7.8 rpg scored. ST LOUIS is 14-4 UNDER  as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. ST LOUIS is 9-1 UNDER  in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The Cards ha ve gone under in 6 straight games.

CHICAGO CUBS are 9-1 UNDER  when the total is 11 or higher over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.1 rpg scored. Cubs have gone under in 8 straight games. 

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.15 Units / 21% ROI)

MLB teams where the total is 11 or higher (ST LOUIS) - poor team, outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)

Play on the under

My projections estimate a true line  total closer to 7 to 7.5 here giving us substantial value on a under wager. 

NY METS are 18-7 UNDER  in home games against right-handed starters this season like Mazur with combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. Mets starter QUINTANA is 81-45 UNDER  when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. 

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI)

NY METS are 16-7 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 7 rpg scored. 

Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (NY METS) - allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. 

Play under 

Padres right-hander Matt Waldron (4-5, 3.76 ERA) is scheduled to start against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea (3-3, 4.30). There are a few key trends attached to this pitching matchup that give us an edge with a under bet: The Padres are hitting just 2.6 rpg vs lefty hurlers like the Mets Manaea - Waldron the Padres starter owns a minuscule 0.92 ERA in his L/3 starts. WALDRON is 11-1 UNDER in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored. Mets own a lowly .214  BA at home this season, while averaging 3.6 rpg. Both teams also own a viable bullpens. 

Play on the under

Steele the Cubs starter (0-3, 3.65 ERA)  has  garnered decent  stats this season  despite of recording zero victories.  In his last three starts, the lefty  is 0-1 along  with a minuscule  0.95 ERA. Runs did cross the plate during his appearances , but it was because of bad defense, which Im betting will significantly get better based on the numbers regressing to the norm. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Taj Bradley has pitched his best at home this season, ss he owns a 2.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in Tampa Bay in 4 outings.In his only career start against the Cubbies, on May 29, 2023, Bradley gave up one run, which was unearned, and three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. He wound up taking a 1-0 loss. Im betting on him showing up in a rinse repeat type situation this Thursday night.

CHICAGO CUBS are 16-4 UNDER in road games in June games over the last 2 seasons.

CHICAGO CUBS are 16-7 UNDER   vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored. 

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games on the road.

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Play under

. Dallas struggled from the land of the trey in the first two games of this series going just  7 for 27 from downtown  in Game 1 and followed it up by converting  6 for 26 from the land of the trey in Game 2. The Mavericks are  a top tier 3 -point shooting team and I am now expecting positive regression on their part, and alot more offense here at home, in much more aggressive offensive play. On the flipside, I do expect the Celtics to respond with some offensive fireworks of their own, and a game the linesmakers expect will be very close. With that said, taking an over stance here is a viable option. 

BOSTON in 18 games after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season have seen a combined average of 226.6 ppg scored.

Kidds L/51 at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DALLAS has seen a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 43-19 OVER L/28 seasons for a. 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Rays righty  starter Pepiot  is a top tier consistent hurler, and he has been since his rookie season in 2022. So far during this campaign spanning  10 starts ,  he owns a solid  4-2 record along  with a viable  3.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.In his L/7  starts, he has garnered a  3-0 record  along with a 3.28 ERA and 0.93 WHIP .  From a totals perspective he took part in games that saw no more than  seven or fewer total runs scored in 4 of those tilts. Meanwhile, the Orioles starter  Burnes, is another top tier hurler and respected in MLB as a  pitcher. to be feared when he goes to the hill  In 13 appearances  this season he is  6-2 along with a stingy 2.26 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Im betting on both these pitchers to go long and strong, and for the bullpens when needed to keep the the batting orders in check. 

MLB Road teams (BALTIMORE) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under

Atlanta has scored a total of nine runs in its past four games.The Braves have gone 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position in their past two games and Im betting their woes wont end here today in a game I have projected to stay on the low side of the Total, thanks to their lack of scoring power, and the face that they have top tier hurler Max Fried on the hill to face the the Nats bats that have averaged just 3.9 rpg vs right hurlers. 
Afternoon baseball is never a great place for hitters in this park, and nothing changes today. 

ATLANTA is 24-9 UNDER  vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season with a combined average of 7.1 rpg scored. ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER  after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. 

MLB  teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ATLANTA) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent as a road favorite, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a losing record are 33-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play under

My projections system estimates a score of 154, giving us top tier value on. an under wager here today.Under is 5-0 in Dream last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 12-1 in Dream last 13 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 11-5 in Dream last 16 road games.

Under is 5-0 in Sky last 5 overall.

Under is 23-9 in Sky last 32 vs. Eastern Conference.

Play under

National League Cy Young candidate Ranger Suárez is a top tier pitching candidate, but the Mets have done well vs southpaws this season, and while they will highly likely not rock the top tier hurler, I feel they will do enough damage to help this score eclipse the total. Meranwhile, on the flipside, the Mets will trot out lefty Sean Manea, who is an average best hurler. The Phillies have also smashed LHP this season, averaging 5.2 rpg , on a .270 BA and Im betting they tee off again in. a big way today. The wind is blowing , and offers up an environment for a higher scoring affair. 

NY METS are 12-4 OVER ) against left-handed starters this season with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. 

MANAEA is 20-7 OVER (when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11 rpg scored. 

 MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (NY METS) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), after a win by 4 runs or more are 50-19 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors

Play on the over

I know the Celtics can show Doncic many different defensive styles and make life difficult for him, but no one can stop this offensive machine, and he has a way of finding ways around anything anyone can throw at him defensively and  that makes his team mates game more viable. Meanwhile, despite of  Dallas turning into a top tier defensive unit during these play offs, they have been weighted  rim stoppers and short to mid range terrors, but considering the Celtics have have  only tried to convert 28.9% of their attempts at the rim and 17.8% from short to mid-range, that tells me the Mavs prowess may easily be tested by a Celtics team that can score in bunches from three point land. Note: During the reg season Porzingis shot 37.5% from 3-point range, and Horford converted  42.0%  of his downtown attempts.  The big P  in the last meeting of the season between these sides  also went 4-of-8 from the land of trey with more than half coming in uncontested fashion. Horford went 2-of-5 in long range bombs. Im betting we see the Celtics kick out alot tonight and for Doncic and company to slam right back with some offensive fireworks of their own in game between two talented and rested sides. 

BOSTON L/62 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 227.3 ppg scored. 

DALLAS L/59 games)when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

DALLAS  in 15 road games vs non-conference opposition this season have seen a  combined average of 240.3 ppg scored, 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 43-17 L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Two average to below average defenses go head ot head here today in a tilt I project to over the set total. Both can light the board up in a hurry and that what Im betting on today as a project this total to be 173. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (DALLAS) - good shooting team (43.5-46%) against an average defensive team (40.5-43.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 45% por better  of their shots are 59-24 L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.DALLAS is 6-0 OVER  in home games hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a comined average of 176.8 ppg scored. 

Play over

 Tigers starter  Flaherty (2-4, 3.46 ERA), recorded his sixth straight quality start on Thursday. He allowed one hit over 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 5-0 road win over the Boston Red Sox. Flaherty, 28, has allowed a total of 10 runs in 38 1/3 innings of work over his past six outings (2.35 ERA) while recording 54 strikeouts and six walks. He owns a 1.50 ERA in two career appearances against Texas, starts in 2019 and 2023. Texas will respond with right-hander Dane Dunning (4-3, 3.94), who will make his third start after missing nearly three weeks with a shoulder issue.The righty , allowed three hits over five scoreless innings in a 6-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks last Wednesday. Dunning gave up two runs (one earned) over five-plus frames in a no-decision at Detroit on April 17. With two viable bullpends backing this quality hurlers an edge to the under is in play. 

TEXAS is 8-0 UNDER in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined average of 5.4 rpg scored.  TEXAS is 14-5 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. TEXAS is 20-9 UNDER  when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. 

The Rangers have failed to eclipse the total in 9 of his L/10 games.

The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+13.55 Units / 49% ROI) 

The Texas Rangers have only hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 56 games (-20.60 Units / -33% ROI)

The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)

Play under

  Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been in top form in  this series vs NYR. Bobrovsky has a record of  11-5 this postseason with a .915 SV% and 2.37 GAA and has  allowed two or fewer goals in 12 of those 16 trips to the ice. Bobrovsky also owns a  .917 SV% over the past seven meetings against the Rangers a team that has failed to get very many high chance opportunities (60 min 5x5) ranking 12th out of the 16 post season teams. Meanwhile, going into the last game the Panthers  were generating the most shots on goal, averaging about 32.8 per game, but  have has  problems converting - scoring just 2.75 goals per game thanks in great part to how well Rangers Russian super star goalie is playing ( Shesterkin). With that said, Im betting on more low scoring action as both goalies project to continue to shine. 

Play on the UNDER 

My projections estimate a score closer to 10 runs here than the offered 8, which gives us an edge to the over. 

White Sox starter FEDDE L/14 starts  against NL Central opponents in his career (Team's Record) has seen a  combined average of 12.4 rpg scored.  Fedde has pitched well this season , but  has een his team lose his L/2 starts and he goes against a Brewers side that has come out of a batting funk with 16 runs in their L/2 games. Fedde has also seen  him and his bullpen allow 8,7,5 runs scored in his L/3 starts vs White Sox. 

 Tobias Myers who spent the L/8 years in the minors ranks average at best which gives the White Sox a good chance of putting some runs on the board. 

MURPHY is 12-3 OVER  in home games in night games as the manager of MILWAUKEE with a combined average of 10.4 rpg  going on the board. 

MLB Road teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or better  over his last 10 games are 34-6 OVER L/27 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with an average of 11 rpg going on the board. 

Play over

Despite of game 4 of this series going under the Total by 5 points , I still believe that this Totals offering is to low. Both these teams have shown top tier defensive qualities during these play offs, but it must be noted that. since 2016 campaign, conference final Game Fives have gone 6-1 Over when one of the sides  is looking  to close out the series, with the average combined score clicking in at  225.1 PPG. Im looking for a rinse and repeat situation , as the Wolves Im betting come out here very aggressively vs the Mavs and for the mavs to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own.DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored.Over the total is 3-1 in the last four of the head-to-head series at Minnesota.

Play over

Miamis starter Baxter Garrett had a slow start after coming of the injured list, but looks like he he is back form as he is coming off a complete-game shutout outing  against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, Padres right-hander Yu Darvish, is 4-2 on the season in 10 starts this season along with a stingy  3.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. His continued success is projected to continue today vs a light hitting Marlins side. Im betting on both hurlers to long and strong and for a lower scoring tilt to ensue.SAN DIEGO is 12-2 UNDER  vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored.MIAMI is 25-12 UNDER in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.9 rpg .MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  as a road underdog of +150 to +200 this season with a combined average of 4.8 rpg scored. 

Play under 

These teams have eclipsed the total by no less than  6 points in each game this series and Im betting nothing changes tonight . The Wolves have been unable to slow down the Dallas scoring machine, and now have to become more aggressive offensively or see their season come to an abrupt end. This Im betting leads to a all out scoring slugfest. MINNESOTA in 13 games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. DALLAS L/22 after 3 or more consecutive wins this season have seen a combined average of 224.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 76-35 OVER L/28 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

The first two games of this series were grinding defensive games, with both tilts staying on the low sie of the number. Dallas is not going to win this series in wide open fashion against the explosive Oilers, and Im betting on their game plan once again being very conservative and to play this  game in restrained and disciplined  transitory fashion. This Im betting leads to another lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) this season with the combined average of 4.5 gpg scored. On the fliside the Oilers can also be physical and defensive minded and Im betting the Stars will aso be bound into a very limited opportunity to score. Edmonton has not eclipsed the Total in 6 straight and have allowed 1 goal in 4 of those games. 

Play under

This is it for the Pacers, in a do or die series situation. With that said, Im betting on the home side Indiana , just letting everything hang out, in what is their usual modus operandi , which is implementing an all out offensive attack, with little regard for defensive actions. With that said, Im also betting on the explosive offense of the Celtics, will be forced into  reciprocating with some explosive fireworks of their own which in turn will lead to a combined score that  eclipses this total. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 85-44 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

My own projections estimate both sides will score 114 or more points. Not:

BOSTON is 19-2 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season. INDIANA is 41-4 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season.

INDIANA is 31-13 OVER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons of 242.4 ppg scored.

INDIANA is 12-1 OVER  revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 256.4 ppg scored.

Play on the over

The Wolves own a hard grinding defense, while Dallas has really played a much stronger defensive game than they exhibited during the reg season, but still the projections for this game by the linsemakers concerning the total still looks a bit low . With that said, and considering the situation of a 2-0 series lead by the home side, Im betting on the Mavs and the Wolves being more aggressive offensively than many might expect . The Wolves have ran out of gas in the 2nd half last time out and will now  be primed for a start finish effort in desperation mode vs a Dallas side that can respond with some offensive fireworks of their own by Doncic and company.  the L/7 meetings in this series have all eclipsed this totals offering. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 away games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)

DALLAS in 14  home games  when the line is +3 to -3 this season have seen a combined average of 230.1 ppg scored.

Finch  in his L/19 road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MINNESOTA has seen a combined average of 229.8 ppg scored.

Play on the over

After a big game yesterday at home where they beat the NY Liberty the Lynx may start a little slowly here today , and may also be effected by the travel situation to here get here to todays game in Atlanta. That Im betting directly effects the combined score of this tilt to the under. NBARoad teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (MINNESOTA) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 62 or more shots/game, after a game where a team made 90% of their free throws or better are 37-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined averaged of 156,6 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 11-3 UNDER   as a home favorite over the last 2 season with a combined average of 160.3 ppg scored. 

Play under

The first two games of this series and the last 2 games between Boston and Indiana during the reg season  all easily eclipsed the total including 6 of their L/7 meetings overall and Im betting on nothing changing again tonight in game 3.  The Celtics offense is currently looking unstoppable as the Pacers just cant find a way to out rebound their tenacious opponents. According to my projections these are the two best offenses in the NBA and that will once again show on the scoreboard here tonight. The Pacers only have one chance to find a win in this series and that is to just run and gun like tehir porverbial hair is on fire, like  they almost do with wreck-less abandon and thats what Im   betting on here again tonight with the banged up Halliburton plays or not. INDIANA is 11-2 OVER as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 250.4 ppg scored.  INDIANA is 18-6 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. Carlisle is 19-8 OVER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of INDIANA with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 241.7 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 14-5 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 237.7 ppg. Mazzulla L/43 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 236.2 ppg scored. scored,.

Play over

These two teams are strong offensive sides, but their bullpens are below average to say the least. The Rangers average 5.2 rpg on the road this season, while the bullpen owns a ugly 7.56 road ERA. Meanwhile, the Phillies average 5.6 rpg at home in offense while the bullpen owns a 5.15 ERA at home.

Texas starter HEANEY is 1-8  in the first half of the season this season. (Team's Record) with the average combined score clicking in at 9 rpg.  HEANEY is 17-6 OVER  when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with the average of 11.6  rpg scored . 

Phillies starter Zach Wheeler has pitched well overall this season, but when he faced the Rangers last season they smashed the Phillies in a 16-3 smash down, as existed in the 4th inning allowing 7 hits and 5 runs . My projections via my early season power rankings once again suggest the Texas Rangers offense matches up well against him. 

PHILADELPHIA is 13-3 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 10.9 rpg scored. PHILADELPHIA L/45 games when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season have seen a combined average of 9 rpg scored. 

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (TEXAS) - AL team with a sub standard SLG (.410 or less) against a very good NL starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or better ), with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 103-52 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

The Pacers offense can light up the best of defenses when they are in a groove, and they currently enter this game against their hosts the Celtics  averaging 114.2 ppg in the play offs, and 119.2 ppg on the road in the post season. The caveat with the Pacers is they prefer a fast paced run and gun type of hoops that has also seen them surrender , 119.1 ppg on the road this season and in the playoff a whopping 121 points per game,  Meanwhile, Boston has averaged 121.5 ppg at home this season, and my projections estimate the well rested Celtics come close to that type of output again while the viable attack of the Pacers will respond with some offensive fireworks of their own. That last two meetings between these sides saw 129-124 win by Boston at home and a 133-131 Indiana victory in their own backyard.Carlisle L/61 games against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of INDIANA has seen a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored. Mazzulla in his L/45 in home games where the total is 220 to 229.5 as the coach of BOSTON have seen a combined average of 231 ppg. BOSTON  L/41 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 235.5 ppg scored. INDIANA iL/72 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons have seeb a  combined average of 238.9 ppg scored.

Play on the over