Cappers Sports Picks

Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the Memphis/Utah series in Utah. The Jazz will really look to rev things up and make Memphis run and gun, as considering how porous the Jazz D, has been Im expecting a shootout put here in Salt Lake city tonight that ends up with a much higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. 

Play over

 The Nets were just 25th in the league in pace of play last season, but with new HC  Fernandez at the helm a faster paced mode of play must be expected just like was the case in Sacramento where he had his team ranked in the top half of league in pace consistently. On the flipside, Atlanta  finished last season 11th in adjusted offensive rating  and were Top 10 in aORTG in three straight years and with Young leading the way on the floor even more upward offensive momentum should be expected. With tht said, my own numbers for this game suggest a total that should be closer to 227 which gives a full (plus) possession edge on this totals offering. 

Quin Snyder road games against Atlantic division opponents as coach of Atlanta are 12-2 OVER with a combined average of 250.8 ppg scored.

Play on the over

Jacksonville State is ranked 15th in yards per play g and have done even better  in league play, garnering a whopping 7.6 yards per play in two Conference USA games and according to my projections are  to get into the upper 40s here again in this tilt vs Middle Tennessee State that ranks  127th in yards per play allowed on defense at 6.69. MTSU has scored consistently and averaged 6 ypp in conference play ( 3 games), and also project to get in the high 20s which gives credence to an over wager in this mid week  spot pay /play situation. Note: Jacksonville State when playing against a team with a losing record ( L/7) have averaged 46.4 ppg with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 68.8 ppg scored. Middle Tennessee has allowed four of its previous five FBS oppoennts  to top the 42 point plateau on offense. . Jacksonville State won 45-30 on the road last season when these teams met and a similar output is a viable opportunity to cash a over ticket again. 

Play over 

SF has been lighting up the board of late, but they now go against a rested Chiefs side, with a top tier D. The Chiefs are allowing  just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  KC is scoring 23.1 PPG, allowing just 15.6 PPG while playing a conservative brand of football which Im betting will be the case again here this afternoon. 

Kansas City has played five games this season and four tilts  have not eclipsed the  had 47 point plateau. Dating back to the 2023,  47 or less points have been  scored in 15 of 18 games the Chiefs have played .

NFL road teams like the Chiefs  coming off their bye week are 31-12 UNDER L/43 opportunities   add to that KC is 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games and an edge for a under wager comes into play .  

Play under

. The  Rams are averaging just  18.8 ppg  on offense this season while the  Raiders are averaging only 18.2 ppg on the current campaign. Both sides have a boatload full of key offensive injuries and should once again battle with production problems in this battle.

Rams away or neutral games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse are 5-0 UNDER dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average score of 39.2 ppg going on the score board.

NFL team like Vegas where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 14 or more points are 37-11 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored .

NFL team like the Rams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two sub average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) are 44-15 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 41 ppg scored.

HC Sean McVay home games in October games 12-2 UNDER with a combined average of 38.6 ppg.Sean McVay home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season is a perfect 6-0 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

Play under

The Dodgers are an explosive offensive team  off scoring 10 runs yesterday and they once again to project to have  a big offensive performance here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Note Dodgers starter JACK FLAHERTY road starts vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse has seen his team go over 6 straight times with a combined average of 13.5 rpg scored. Mets starter DAVID PETERSON starts as an underdog of +125 to +175 is 10-1 over dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored.LA Dodgers games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season are 31-8 OVER with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.LA Dodgers games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 26-8 L/34 with a combined average of 10.6 rpg scored.

Play over

Left-hander Jose Quintana (0-0, 0.00 ERA in the playoffs) is expected to start for the Mets against right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 5.63 ERA).

Dodgers starter Yamamoto is averaging only four innings per start since returning,  and owns a   a 4.13 ERA since July. The Dodgers  bullpens done well of late, but Im betting a desperate group of Mets get through for some run production tonight. In return Im also betting on a Dodgers offense that is averaging 5.5 rpg on the road to get to Quintana in a tilt that projects to go over the offered total . 

LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) hVE GONE OVER in 11 of their L/13 with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season are 30-8 OVER with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.

Play over

Marshalls  secondary is of the top tier variety, and they will be a nightmare for the  Panthers' passing attack. Georgia State does not  run the football well , and that means according to my projections a lack of point production as was the case last week where they scored just 14 points in a loss.v Important favotr here : Marshall ranks 29th in Passing Success Rate and 54th in Havoc., Marshalls starting QB is out for the season, and instead they will go with a QB by committee option which has seen them stall on red zone dirves. Marshall ranks  outside the top 100 in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. These are keys to what Im betting will end up be a lower scoring affair.  Georgia State games as a road underdog.have gone under 5 straight times. HC Charles Huff games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game have gone under 7 straight times with the average ppg diff clicking in at 40.8 ppg scored.

Play under

LATE STEAM - OVER

The Sabres were held to a single goal in each of their first three tilts but finally broke through offensively. It is however, obvious that this team is not built for explosive offensive efforts and are and will be a more defensive minded team this season, and here against a talented Pens offense will play a conservative game plan, which Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair.

Buffalo games after playing 2 consecutive home games have gone under 16 of theL/20  with a combined average of 4.9 gpg scored. 

Play under

Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee recorded a solid  2.76 ERA on the road.His is backed by the best bullpen in baseball  is evident by posting a  2.57 ERA during the regular season. Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole goes to thee hill in  Game 2 for the New York Yankees. He has  been on fiew for a while now  and has not allowed more than  three earned runs  in 11 of his last 12 starts whilew recording a a sting 2.38 ERA. He isa backed by a top tier bullpen. The yanks supporting pitching staff  has not allowed and ER ince September 1, Im betting the Yankees pitcdher limit a The Guardians offense that  ranked 23rd in road scoring this season  with 4.1 runs per game. Im betting the pitchers decide what will be a lower scoring afffiar. 

Cleveland road games with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 13-3 UNDER sincw the 2023 season with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. Cleveland road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 17-5 UNDER L/22 with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored.

Play under

Troy has struggled on defense all season, outside the top 100 in EPA/Play this season and South Albamas explosive offense that  has ,   seventh best rankings  in EPA/Play this season under aggressive offensive minded  head coach Major Applewhite.NOTE:  when Gio Lopez is playing QB  the offense is 10th in EPA/Pass, per Game   with a 12-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On the flipside the Jags D is sub par, and Troy Im betting also does some damage here in chase mode in  a tilt that eclipses this total. 

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 41-14 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored. 

CFB teams like Tro where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 82-33 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 60.1 ppg scored.

Play over

This a lower total but for good reason it features the #1 and #2 scoring defenses  in the NFL.  (The Broncos are  allow ing 14.6 ppg  while LA Chargers   allow 12.5 ppg ). Both offenses have been abysmal this season, ranking 31st and 32nd respectively. Denver is off a big win last time out, but it must noted that the Broncos have gone under in 13 of their L/14 games after a win by  14  points or more.LA Chargers games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points are 8-1 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 31.3 ppg scored. Everything points to a low scoring grinding type affair.

Play under

Padres starter YU DARVISH road starts in playoff games have gone 7-0 OVER since the 2022 season with a combined average of over 8.3 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Dodgers hurler YAMAMOTO starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher he has seen 10 of 11 games eclipse the number with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored ( the average total offered by the books in those games was between 7.5 to 8.5).YAMAMOTO home starts when his team is off a win are 6-0 OVER this season with a combined average of 13 rpg scored.(Dodgers won yesterday 8-0) . These are two viable offenses and run production Im betting will see this number eclipsed. The Padres were shut out last night, but Im betting on positive regression in this spot. Note:LA Dodgers games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 22-7 OVER with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Padres Manager MIKE SHILDTin road games on the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite.has seen his team produce an average of 5.7 rpg,

Play over

The Padres won their second consecutive game in the current series, in a  6-5 home victory over the Dodgers and are on the verge of eliminating the Dodgers for the second strait year.  Im betting the Dodgers will not go down without a fight and will be prepared to light up the Fathers  Dylan Cease here and his supporting bullpen.  Cease gave up five runs on six hits over 3 1/3 innings in Game 1,to the Dodgers and projects to have an average at best outing here tonight. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will reply with a with a bullpen game. The Dodgers bullpen has been lit up quite regularly for a while now and nothing changes in this spot vs a Padres offense that has averaged 5.3 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 22-5 OVER L/27 with a combined average of 11.7 rpg.

My projections estimate a combined score in the 55 point range, New Mexico is off a bye week and will be rusty on offense out of the gate. Meanwhile, Jacksonville could show some fatigue here on a short week of rest that saw them play last Friday, and could also start slowly.  The Aggies have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns this season,  as QBs  Santino Marucci, Parker Awad, and Deuce Hogan have combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Their lack of firepower helps this sscore stay under the listed Total. 

Home teams like Jacksonville State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 38-13 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average of 51,7 ppg scored.

CFB teams like New Mexico State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 55-21 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average score of 55.4 ppg scored.

Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points - outgained by opponent by 80 or more passing yards/game on the season have seen a combined average of 51 points per game scored from a sample size of 57 games dating back to the 2020 season.

 New Mexico State away or neutral games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2023 season with a combined average of 44 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

NYY STARTER CLARKE SCHMIDT road starts against AL Central opponents are 6-0 UNDER dating back to the 2023 campaign.CLARKE SCHMIDT starts in road game this season have gone 8-0 under with the average combined score clicking in at 4.4 rpg. CLARKE SCHMIDT road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game are 8-0 UNDER L/8 dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average of 5.7 rpg.

The Royals are set to send right-hander Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo made the AL All-Star team this year and finished 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts. He shut down the Yankees on Sept. 10, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings.In his career vs. the Yankees, he is 5-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 14 games (four starts) and projects to have another viable start. 

Kansas City home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season are 15-3 UNDER with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams - team with a poor SLG (410 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP1.300 or less) -AL, in October games are 57-21 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored.

Play under

The Padres send a strong hurler in King to the hill, and he is also backed by a strong bullpen but the explosive Dodgers offense can make the best of pitching staffs look mortal   After getting crushed last time out  10-2 in front of their disgruntled home fans, theDodgers will be collectively primed for a bounce back . Note:  LA Dodgers games off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average 13.2 rpg scored. On the flipside LAs WALKER BUEHLER starts when playing against a team with a winning record have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign, with the average combined rpg clicking in at 10.6 rpg game. Buehlers velocity has been down this season after Tommy John surgery and is very hittable in his current form, which is not a good omen for his chances to a cool down a Padres side that is averaging 5.1 rpg vs right handed starters this season.  Buehler is also 0-3 along with a 6.85 ERA vs the NL West this season.Note: LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season are 16-3 OVER with a combined average of 11.8 rpg scored with Dodgers themselves averaging 6.8 rpg.LA Dodgers road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season dating back to last season are 21-5 over with the average combined score clicking in at 11.7 rpg scored.

Play on the OVER

In the one game in this series played in Seattle last season the Blues won 4-3. Im betting on a similar outcome and close game here today in a score that projects to at least hit the 6 goal plateau. Saint Louis games in a road game where where the total is 5.5 have gone over 8 straight times dating back to last season with a combined average of 8.2 gpg scored. 

Play over

Both teams are banged up with a boat load full of injuries on offense , and their collective flow should be curtailed this Monday night giving us an edge with a under wager. Also the defenses of these sides have been well above average and more top tier D should be expected in this tilt. 

Kansas City away or neutral games after the first month of the season are a perfect 6-0 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. Kansas City away or neutral games after playing a division game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored. Kansas City games in games played on a grass field are 12-3 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

NFL teams like New Orleans where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-9 UNDER since the 2015 season . New Orleans have gone under in 5 straight Monday tilts  L/3 seasons with a combined average of  31.2 ppg scored. 

Andy Reid games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points are 17-4 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.Andy Reid home games off 2 consecutive close road wins by 7 points or less. are a perfect 5-0 UNDER with a combined average of 32.8 ppg scored.

In the last 4 years. AFC home teams have gone under the total 15 of the L/18 .  

AFC Conference teams like KC have gone under in 15 of their L/18 in the last two seasons befor a  Bye Week.

Play on the under 

I know this is a matchup that features top tier starting pitchers, Skubal and Boyd. However it must be noted that the  Tigers from August 13 until the end of the regular season,  ranked fourth in the American League in runs per game producing  4.4 runs per outing. Meanwhile, the Guardians rank 10th with  4.7 runs per game at home  this season and 5.3 rpg in their L/41 this season vs LH starters.  Cleveland has also scored an an average 5.9 rpg after shutting out an opponent. With that said, Im betting this line is just a tad to low, and offers value for over bettors.  Note: Detroit games after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span have gone over 14 of the L/17 times with average rpg diff clicking in at 10.2 rpg game. Detroit road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/starts are 23-8 L/31 over with the average of 9.1 rpg scored. MLB teams like Cleveland when the money line is +125 to -125 - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or better over his last 3 starts spanning 57 games dating back to the 2020 season=n have seen a combined average of 8.7 rpg scored.

Play over

Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino  has not faired wellon the road this season, with his home ERA compared to road ERA 2 runs per game more as is evident by a  a 4.96 ERA away  with the play offs included., Note:  When LUIS SEVERINO starts when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) hsd deen the total cash 14 of 16 times with the average combined score clicking in at 11 rpg. .Since July 1st the Mets Bullpen owns a  4.34 ERA ranking 21st in the league. These pitching options go against a Philadelphia   offense that ranks fourth in the league in home runs hit per at-bat, while averaging  5.1 runs per game at home during the regular season which is 2nd best in the league. Meanwhile, the Phillies will respond with Sacnhez who despite pitching well at home this season , goes against a red hot Mets offense, that raked 7th on the road this season with a .254 BA while averaging 4.8 rpog ranking 8th on the category Sanchez is backed by a  Phillies bulloen that owns a 4.49 ERA  ranking them 23rd in the league since the beginning of July. 

NY Mets games as a road underdog of +125 to +175 are 15-4 L/19 OVER with 11.8 rpg scored. NY Mets games after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 13-2 OVER L/15 with s combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.

Philadelphia games after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs16-4 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

Im betting on the Phillies to be primed to bounce back here today vs the Mets after yesterdays 6-2 loss, but for the hot bats of the Mets  offense to not back down and continue their post season surge . Lots of runs should go on the board here today in Philly. 

Play over

 The Falcons won last week,  despite of not t scoring a single offensive touchdown. QB Kirk Cousins has been less than consistent and because of this the Falcons are ranked  just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048). On the flipside, QB Baker Mayfield has been more efficient, but in this road environment will be asked to a little bit more conservative and lean on the run game.  Both these coaches are defensive minded, and with the overall state of each side coming into this tilt an under wager looks to be a viable investment option.

The total in Tampa Bay away or neutral games in the first half of the season are a perfect 8-0 UNDER L/8 dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 33 ppg scored. Tampa Bay games after a win by 10 or more points. which was the case last time out, has seen 8 of 9 games stay under the total with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored . Tampa Bay games after a 2 game home stand are 6-0 under dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored.

Atlanta has gone under 7 straight times on Thursdays.

Play on the under

 Brewers send their starter  Montas (7-11, 4.84 ERA) to the hill to face left-hander Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47) in game 2 of this series. 

 FRANKIE MONTAS starts vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season are a perfect 7-0 Over since 2022 with a combined average of 12 rpg scored. Montas is 0-0 with a 5.06 ERA in three career regular-season games vs. the Mets, including two starts. He is 1-1 with a 9.45 ERA in three career postseason appearances overall, including one start.

Manaea has not looked good in three postseason outings, including two starts, going 0-3 with a 15.26 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. He is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in five career regular-season appearances (four starts) vs. the Brewers .Manaeas last start vs the Mets  Sept 27th of this season resulted in a 8-4 loss and the total being eclipsed. Montas was the opposing pitcher.  

NY Mets road games after 2 straight games with no home runs are 8-1 OVER L/9 have seen a combined average of 11 rpg scored.

Play on the over

NYM starter LUIS SEVERINO when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) has seen the total eclipsed in 13 of the L/15 with the average combined score clicking in at 10.9 rpg. SEVERINOs two most recent starts vs the Brewers both eclipsed the Total ( 13 combined runs 2024) and 10 combined runs 2023).He surrendered six runs (three earned) on 11 hits over five innings in a 7-6 loss to the Brewers on March. SEVERINO when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series in his career has seen all 4 go over the total. SEVERINO 1-4 with a 5.15 ERA in 11 postseason appearences, including 10 starts.    LUIS SEVERINO in road starts when pitching in day games has seena combined average of 12 rpg scored. It must also be noted that the Mets bullpen might be a little tired after yesterdays double header vs the Braves. 

Milwaukee Brewers starter FREDDY PERALTA as a home favorite of -125 to -175 is 6-0 over L/6 with a combined average score of 9.7 rpg scored. PERALATA is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four postseason outings, including two starts. He allowed four runs over five innings in last year's 5-2 loss to Arizona in Game 2. 

Play over

The Packers ran the ball alot last time out and Im betting they will lean on their run game again because the banged up QB Jordan Love maybe less than 100% if he plays and if a backup takes to the filed - which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Game 4 division home favorites  like the Packers  have gone UNDER  15 of the L/16 times  in the last seven years for a 94% conversion rate. 

The Vikings are 2nd in the NFL Defensive Points per Game allowed  at( 10) The Vikings have pressured opposing passers at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL this season (38.6%) while recording a sack on 11.0% of dropbacks (second highest)

.Note: The last time the Vikings went into Lambeau Field was October of last year. They easily won the game 24-10 shutting down Love and the Packer offense. It was a grinding affair, and Im expecting a repeat type lower scoring game . 

Minnesota games in the first half of the season are 9-1 UNDER with a combined average of 41 ppg scored dating back to last season.

NFL team like Minny where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 116-61 UNDER dating back to the 1983 season .

Play under

New York took out  the Broncos 31-21 in Week 5 last season, and Im betting on a similar type combined score here this Sunday . 

The Jets QB Rodgers was in top form vs  New England last time out , completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns and projects to  have similar numbers in this matchup vs a Broncos D due for negative regression  . On the flipside, the Broncos  QB Bo Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft, had 216 yards on 25-for-36 passing to go along with 47 rushing yards and a TD against Tampa Bay for his first career victory. He also projects to have a strong effort .  Note:

NFL road underdogs playing off a road pup victory  the previous week like the Broncos have gone over 16 of the L/19 times.

Despite of both sides being defensively efficient, Im betting on this tilt eclipsing the total based on QB play and offensive up-trending data. 

These teams have combined for an average of 53.5 ppg at Metlife Stadium in their L/4 meetings in this venue.

NFL team like the Jets where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 48.6 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in September games are 54-19 OVER L/51 seasons with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored.

Play over 

This number is low, actually just a bit to low according to my projections.  Michigan L/16 games as a home favorite have seen a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

The last eight games of the Minnesota/Michigan  series have gone Over the total. 

CFB team like Michigan against the total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have seen a combined average of 50.6 ppg scored ( spanning 138 games dating back to the 2020 season).

System applies to: Michigan over.

Neither the Giants (79-80) or Cardinals (81-78) will be participating in the postseason next week so both should be just going through the motions. key trends: The Giants enter the series tied with the Chicago White Sox for the fewest home runs in the majors hit at home this season with 64.

Cards hurler MILES MIKOLAS road starts vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse. have gone under 11 of the L/12 times dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored. San Francisco home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season are 12-1 UNDER with a combined average of 6.1 runs per game dating back to last season. Mikolas owns a 4-1 record along with a 2.88 ERA against the Giants in nine career appearances, including five starts.

SF righty starter  Landen Roupp (1-1, 2.70),  has been in top form since becoming a starter earlier this month. He, has allowed just two runs and 10 hits in 15 innings and projects to have another quality start. 

Play under

Army has  outscored the opposition 103-28, with their ground heavy option offense  including 61-21 in their two FBS games. The offense is clicking and Im betting they will continue to produce here this evening vs  a Temple side on short rest.  It must be noted the Owls when they faced the option offense of the Navy  Midshipmen they allowed 38 points in a DD loss. Im betting Temple will also get run over defensively again, but their offense is starting to up trend as was evident when they scored 45 points and had 6.6 yards per play against Utah State last week behind a solid looking QB Evan Simon. 

Temple games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 68.7 ppg. Temple home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored going over 5 straight times dating back to last season .

Army West Point games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored.

CFB Home teams like Temple- sub par team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game have seen  an of 54.5 ppg scored spanning 95 games going back to the 2015 season

CFB Home teams like Temple where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in September games are 43-15 OVER L/9 seasons for a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total - dominant team like Army outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a poor team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1992 with a combined average of 61.6 ppg.

Play over

Projections for this game are based on a trends based set of situations:

Arizonas starting pitcher ZAC GALLEN starts vs. division opponents have gone. a perfect 6-0 (100%) OVER L/6 with an average over/under of 8.5, .The average combined score clicks in at 13.3 ppg.ZAC GALLEN in 7  home starts  vs. division opponents have seen a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored.  Arizona games at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 are 30-12 OVER this season with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Arizona games against division opponents are 32-14 OVER witn a combined average og 11.2 rpg scored.

San Francisco road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 13.2 rpg scored. )Giants won 11-0 yesterday as pups)Arizona games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined average 13.4 rpg. Also Arizona home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 15.2 rpg scored.

SF has averaged 5.4 rpg in their L/7 overall.

Play on the OVER

Arizona is averaging 5.4 rpg in their L/7 overall and 5.8 rpg vs NL West opposition this season.

 Giants starter Logan Webb goes to the hill for  the Giants. The right hander has allowed 3 or more runs in  his last five trips to the mound. Webb owns a average at best road ERA of 4.36 ERA . He is backed by a bullpen that is ranked 16th in the league with a 3.96 ERA. Webb goes against a Dbacks top ranked offense that is producing 5.5 runs per game  and 6 rpg vs the NL West.  Webb has seen 5 of this L/6 starts eclipse the total. Meanwhile, the Dbacks starter Pfaadt has  allowed at  three runs or more  in six of his last seven starts while garnering a 5.04 road ERA overall this season.  He is backed by a  bullpen that has recorded a  4.42 ERA, ranking  24th in MLB. They go against a SF side that has averaged 4.7 rpg vs the NL West.  . Pfaadt is 8-1-1 OVER in his L/10 starts. 

  Note:San Francisco games as a road underdog of +100 to +150 have gone over in 24 of 33 games this season with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored.Arizona home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) have gone over in 23 of 30 games with a combined average of 12 rpg scored.

Play over

QB Jayden Daniels is a decent looking yiung QB, but has hard problems getting the ball into end  zone . It must be noted that rookie QBS  have not been offensively prdiceint in  early-season NFL play  that has been evident by a 26 of 35 games staying  Under the total in weeks 1-3 . Im betting Danilels issues with TD proficiency continue for now against what will be a hyped uo Cincinnati group that will be looking to play a complete game. It must be noted that  Cincy is  5-2-1 Under  L/ 8  under the Monday night lights while , scoring just 17.6 PPG.  Also the under is a perfect 5-0 UNDER in Zac Taylor games against NFC East division opponents with an average of just 37 ppg scored.

 NFL team against the total - off a road loss like the Bengals , when playing on Monday night are 30-7 UNDER since 2020 with average combined score clicking in at 39.1 ppg . NFL team like Bengals where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-8 UNDER since 2015 with a combined average of 43 ppg scored .

Play under

Phillies starting pitcher Nola has garnered a  3.54 ERA which  ranks him  24th, with his  1.173 WHIP ranking him 28th in MLB. He projects for an average at best outing Meanwhile,  Nate Pearson (2-2, 4.71) will go the hill  for the Cubs on Monday and projects to get lit up in this spot play. 

 Chicago Cubs road games after 3 or more consecutive home games have gone over 10 of the L/11 times witch a combined average of 11 rpg scored.Philadelphia games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored.Philadelphia home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games with a combined average of 13 rpg scored.

Play over

Andy Dalton will take over for Bryce Young at QB this week, will Im betting give the Panthers some offensive cohesiveness. Unfortunately, nothing can be done for Carolinas Swiss Cheese D, allowing 36.6 ppg .The Raiders offense is projected by me to light the Panthers secondary up like a Christmas Tree. This combination of factors bodes well for a combined score that eclipses this total. Note: NFL road underdogs of 13 or less points like the Panthers . that scored  3 or less points playing as hosts in  their previous game  have gone OVER in 11 straight opportunities dating back 7 seasons. 

Play over

 Brewers starter Montas has  pitched well since being traded .In his L/9 starts with the Milwaukee Brewers, he has recorded a .3.55 ERA  He is backed by MLB best bullpen  (3.21 ERA ).  Meanwhile, Arizona starter Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks and goes against a offense that averages 4.8 rpg on the season .  The southpaw owns a inflated  6.23 ERA. Hes only starting today after being regulated to the bullpen because of injuries. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in MLB with a  4.39 ERA. The Brewers have had a nagover since clinching a play off spot, losing 3 straight, but now have to get back in a groove and will motivated to perform .PAT MURPHY on the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses is a perfect 9-0 with the victories being of conclusive variety - average rpg diff clicking in at +4.4.Milwaukee on the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities. Note: Arizona on the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games are 0-6 L/6 opportunities.

Im betting the Hawkeyes will be in. alook ahead situation here vs Ohio State up next, and could find their offense just going through the motions earlier on this game vs a tough Minnesota D that has not allowed points since the 4th quarter of their game against North Carolina to start their season. Both teams thrive via the rush and that will eat clock time which in turn gives credence to a lower scoring sleep fest. Kirk Ferentz games when the total is 35 or less as coach of Iowa : 9-1 UNDER (90%) with an average over/under of 31.9 with a combined average of 27.4 ppg scored.Kirk Ferentz in a road game where the total is 35 or less of Iowa has seen a combined average score of 26.4 ppg scored spanning 5 games.

Play under

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the last six Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 40s ansd no more than 51 points which gives us value with betting the under on this totals offering. Teams like Missouri total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have gone under are 90-46 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 50 ppg scored. CFB teams like Vanderbilt where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 69-33 UNDER with the average combined score clicking in at 50.1 ppg.

Play under

Atlantas starter  Fried current form is a concern because he is on pace for his first under-.500 season since 2018, when he went 1-4 as a part-time starter. Against the Marlins, he is just 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA in 15 career outings and his team lost 7-0 lat time he faced them on Aug 4th. .Hes definitely looking to be on the downside of of his career. He is however fortunate enough to be backed by a offense that has averaged 6 rpg in their L/7 games. Meanwhile, Miami will start right-hander Adam Oller (1-4, 5.40 ERA) on Saturday,Hhis career numbers in the majors include a 4-13 record and a 6.66 ERA in 34 appearances (21 starts). Needless to say its highly probable he gets lit up today vs a Atlanta side of a 4-3 upset loss yesterday to Miami. Im betting both offenses get their licks in this afternoon and this number is eclisped. 

Miami games in home games are : 54-19 OVER this season (74%) with an average over/under of 8.1 and a combined average score of 10.4 rpg scored. Miami games at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 are : 49-16 for a (75%) with an average over/under of 8.0, with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored. Miami home games in the second half of the season with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.Miami home games in day games. are 24-6 OVER this season with a combined average 24-6 OVER for a 11.6 rpg scored.Miami home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.Miami home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. are 21-6 this season, with a combined average of 11.6 rpg.Miami home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 13.2 rpg scored.

Dbacks starter  Gallen   in his most recent outing versus the Brewers on September 15, gave up three earned on six hits and two walks in 5 innings for a no-decision and according to my projections similar data should be recorded in the rematch. Meanwhile,  the Brewers are sending  Colin Rea to the hill. The right hander owns a  12-5 record but a slightly elevated  4.14 ERA in 29 games (25 starts). Rea  has recorded a  4.52 ERA in 91 career games (74 starts) and projects to allow plus 3 runs in this start according to my projections. 

Note: Arizonas key offensive  cog   , Marte is 3-for-3 with a double and a home run vs Rea.Last year against Colin Rea, Marte was 3-for-3 with a double and a home run at the plate.

Arizonas starter when starting/playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) has seen him garner a 6-0 OVER record with a combined average of 14.2 rpg scored. Meanwhile, when Brewers starter COLIN REA starts as a home underdog of +100 or higher he has seen 15 of 17 starts eclipse the Total with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored.

Arizona games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season have gone over 16 of 20 times with a combined average of 13.3 ppg scored.

Milwaukee home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. have gone over 11 of the L/12 times, with a combined average of 10 rpg scored.

Both these offenses are in top tier form, with the Dbacks averaging 6.7 rpg of production in thier L/7 games overall, and on the flipside, the Brewers are scoring an average of 5.6 rpg in they're L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

Play over

These two teams the Jets and Pats  have  stayed under the total in their L/ 4 head to head matchups with an average combined score of 24.3 combined ppg going on the board. When considering this game takes place on a Thursday night-it must be noted that  NFL games on that night  have stayed under the total 15 of the L/17 times with a 41 point or less Totals offering from the books.  Finally these teams are both playing .500 ball this season, which sets up well for a lower scoring affair, with  a line of 44 kor less - In tilts featuring evenly matched records they  have failed to eclipse the total 13 of the L/15 times ( 44 pts or less). Ive seen nothing from positive from these offenses that will turn me off this being a lower scoring snooze feast affair. Note:, The Pats own  a Net EPA of +0.09 and NY Jets  have recorded  a Net EPA of -0.01-New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the first two week of this season and on the flipside QB Aaron rodgers is still not 100% after repairing his achilles and will also be letting the run game develop around him as he gets more comfortable in the pocket.  With that said, Im betting a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the number.

New England games off a non-conference game.- have gone under 5 straight times with a combined average of 27 ppg scored.

Robert Saleh away or neutral games in September games is 5-0 UNDER with ana verage of 33.2 ppg scored.

Play under 

Dodgers starter Flaherty is off his  worst start with his new team. On Saturday against the Atlanta Braves, the veteran righty allowed four runs on five hits in three innings in a ugly 10-1 loss and projects for another average at best start . Meanwhile, the Marlins start Cabrera Cabrera who is a walk machine issuing  4.4 per nine innings Yes, he has elite fastball, but the Dodgers hit those kind of pitchers very hard. His last couple of appearances have been strong, but it must be note EDWARD CABRERA  after giving up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings has seen a combined average 9.5 rpg go on the board with the opposition producing  an average of 7.5 rpg across  the plate. 

Note: JACK FLAHERTY road starts in September games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 14.5 rpg scored .

LA Dodgers games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season have gone 23-7 to the over with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 15-4 over with a combined 12.4 rpg scored.

SKIP SCHUMAKER road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 13.8 rpg scored.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+18.90 Units / 25% ROI)

Miami in home games this season are 53-18 OVER with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.Miami games as a home underdog of +150 to +200 have gone over 15 of 18 times with a combined average of 12.3 rpg scored. Miami home games in day games this season are 23-6 OVER with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.

Miami home games vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season are a perfect 6-0 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 13.5 rpg scored.

The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 77 games at home (+32.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Play over

 These teams have combined to  average 166  points in their last two meetings and my projections for this game estimate a combined score in around 167-168  range which gives us some strong value with a over wager.Over is 9-3 in Aces last 12 vs. Western Conference.

Play on the over

These teams have nothing really to play for as their spots in the play offs have essentially been decided. I expect  tweaking schemes and staying healthy will be key for both these sides, which projects to see a lower scoring game between two very tough defenses. 

Under is 5-0-1 in Sun last 6 overall.Under is 6-0 in Sun last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 7-1 in Sun last 8 Tuesday games.Under is 16-5-1 in Sun last 22 vs. Western Conference.

Under is 5-1 in Lynx last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-2 in Lynx last 7 overall.Under is 5-2 in Lynx last 7 Tuesday games.

Play under

Cleveland will send  Boyd (2-1, 2.18 ERA) to the hill for  his 7th start. The veteran lefty owns a solid  0.91 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 33 innings of quality ball. He is backed by MLB top bullpen.

Minnesota's starter Lopez owns a  5-1 record along with a stingy, 1.79 ERA,  in his L/45 1/3 IP of work ( 9 ER, 7 BB, 41 K, 1.13 WHIP)

Both pitchers are in top form g and project to go deep into this tilt  which provides an  edge with the under  bet I am making. The Under is 3-1 in Boyd’s last  4 starts. The  total has not been exclipsed in  3 of Lopezs last for  4 trips to the hill  . 

The Guardians  took out the Rays yesterday winning by a  2-0  count behind RHP Ben Lively. The Under cashed in all 4 games of the series at home vs the Rays this past weekend , with the Guardians  averaging 2.8 runs per game (RPG) on offense, while allowing just 2.3 RPG.The Under is 12-1-2 in the guardians L/15 trips to the diamonds.

The  Guardians earned the 3-game sweep  when these teams played back in May while allowing a total of 8 runs  as the Under cashed in 2 of the 3 outings.

Play on the under

For much of their first game of the season vs Tennessee the Bears offense looked extremely inconsistent, and despite of winning they looked like their offensive production was a mirage. Here against a stacked Texans D, Im betting they will have issues getting scores . On the flipside, the  Texans D  [vs OPP] After SU win have gone under 8 of the L/10 times.   Texans Against limited mistake offenses averaging less than 1.5 turnovers per game have gone under in 11 of the L/14 . Meanwhile, Against decent-scoring teams like Houston averaging 24 PPG or more the Bears have gone under 11 of the L/15 games. Bears  [vs OPP] After a conference SU win are 36-21-2 UNDER. 

Chicago  in game 2 s are 1-6 O/U L/7 seasons with a combined average of  (36.4 ppg scored).  Texans have gone over in 3 of their L/4 vs the Bears with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored in those 4 games.

NFL Road teams like Chciago against the total - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. are 29-4 UNDER L/4 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

System applies to: Chicago.Play under

Derek Carr was extremely efficient in his opening game this season with New Orleans as he posted a 142.5 QB rating while converting on 19 of 23 passes with the Saints putting 47 points on the board in a big DD win.Meanwhile QB Prescott and company are offensively  loaded and proved it in a DD road win vs Cleveland and project to have success here again today in Dallas where they home games saw a combined average of 55.2 ppg go on the board in the 2023 campaign Im betting on more offensive fireworks again in a rinse and repeat situation. NFL Game 10 or less when  both teams are off an ATS win margin of +14 or more pts have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER. Dallas L/23 games played on turf have seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. The Cowboys last 12 home games with a line of 52 or less have seen the total eclipse 11 of those times. Also All non-division underdogs  like the Saints off a victory  of 28 or more points  have seen the total go over in 12 of their L/13 opportunities dating back 12 seasons. 

Play over

 The Blue Devils routed the Huskies 41-7 a season ago at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. However, this is a better version of Connecticut, and they should do some damage here offensively in the rematch. Unfortunately Im projecting that the Blue Devils will also show off some explosive offensive firewrks in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair. Note: UConn owns a current 13-game road losing streak against power conference (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC), the Huskies' average margin of defeat is 28.5 points.  The five losses in Mora's tenure have an average margin of defeat of 39.2 points, including last year's 59-3 loss at Tennessee and a 59-0 loss at Michigan in 2022. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - off a road win, in September games.like Duke have gone 30-9 OVER L/4 seasons with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

LATE STEAM- OVER 

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

Im expecting this to be a hotly contested game with less offensive fireworks than the linesmkaers expect.  The lat three meetings here in South Florida between these teams has seen a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Forecast for tonight's tilt  is hot and humid with temps around 80 and humidity close to 100%  I expect this game to start to slow down a great deal as the game progresses because of the suffocating heat  and possible rain which will aid in a combined score that stays on the low side of the number.   Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10 and after watching them struggle to score last week vs Jacksonville look for this combined score to fall short of the offered number. 

Teams like Miami  that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under for a 65% conversion rate  in Week 2 since 2005  .

Miami has gone under in 6 of 8 division home games as favorite of 10 points or less. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L6 division road games.

Play under

Bet over the total in Dallas games as a home underdog -11-1 OVER L/12 with a 191.1 ppg scored.

NYY starter Cortes (4.08 ERA)  has allowed four runs or more  in five of his L/9  starts.  He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 13th in MLB since the beginning of July with a 3.95 ERA. Meanwhile,Criswell the BoSox starter  has garnered a  4.11 ERA overall this season and he is backed by a struggling bullpen that has recorded a ugly  6.18 ERA since the start of July which ranks dead last in MLB.  Considering the pitching data and the fact these two teams own strong offensive numbers since the all star break both producing the 2nd and 3rd most runs per game  and ranking top two in slugging percentage its and easy decision here to back an over wager cashing.   

Play over

Reid Detmers and David Festa  go to hill today for the  Angels and Twins at Target Field this Monday evening. Detmers after a long lay off made his first  MLB start in over three months allowing just 2 runs on  10 strikeouts over six innings against the LA Dodgers last week . Im betting he continues his positive regression in this one vs a lineup he matches up well against as the Twins are struggling of late, swinging wildly with a  25.9% K% rate. The Halos bullpen  rank 5th in the league the last 30 days. 

Meanwhile, the Angels  offense is also struggling  and in the last month , they own a massive  26.3%. 

Going against a D  Festa  who  has a 3.13 ERA with a 2.94 FIP over his L/ 37.1 innings of work and  having only  allowed three runs or less  since being recalled  in late July a limited offensive response from the Angels must be expected  .  

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels starts today vs the Commanders and Im betting it will take time for him to acclimate to the NFL game. But Im also betting on Tampa Bay having issues moving the ball and for their production to be muted. Last season TB saw an average of 34.7 ppg scored on their own home field and Im projecting another combined score in that range here today. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home. :Dating back  more than two seasons , NFC South Division sides like Tampa Bay when going against a    NFC East Division side like Washington have gone UNDER in 15 of 17 matchups. 

Play under

Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty goes to the ill  for the Dodgers. In his starts  with the Detroit Tigers and Dodgers this season , he has garnered a solid  3.01 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The veteran righty has now allowed allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine trips tp the hill. He is backed by the the Dodgers bullpen that has recorded a viable  3.62 bullpen ERA which is 5th best in the league . Flaherty has seen 8 of his L/12 starts vs AL Central opponents stay under in 8 of 12 starts.  Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee takes the ball for the Cleveland He been a quality option for the  Guardians on the road  where  he owns a  2.71 ERA . He is backed by  MLBs top bullpen with a  2.76 bullpen ERA . bibbee has seen 10 of his L/14 interleague tilts stay on the low side of the offered Total. Bibbee is games with a total of 8 to 8.5 has seen the total stay under 12 of 16 times . 

Cleveland road games vs. NL teams like LAD scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season are a perfect 9-0 UNDER for a 100% conversion rate for a 85% ROI.

Play under

Broncos rookie  QB Bo Nix Im betting takes time to acclimate to the NFL game, and struggles here out of the gate with downfield consistency which will directly affect this combined score. 

These two teams have gone UNDER in the last three matchups , with an average of only 39.7 combined PPG going on the scoreboard.

The Broncos have recorded 5 straight unders in the  L/5 seasons in game 1 , with an average of only 35.2 combined PPG going on the scoreboard. 

The Seahawks have gone  UNDER  in their L/3  openers with a combined    average of 40 combined ppg going on the scoreboard.

Also non division  matchup  in the first game of the season. have gone under 26 of the L/35 times dating back 11 seasons. 

Denver is 91-57 UNDER the total since 2015 for a 62% conversion rate for low bettors.

Play under

The Cards enters this game  having gone under in 16 of their L/20   and 9 of their L/10 when playing on the road versus  Eastern Division opponents . Meanwhile the home side  Bills have gone  under in 9 of their L/11 season openers  In their last including 3 straight openers with a  a combined  average of  39.3 ppg scored. I know QB Kyle Murray and QB Josh Allen gets the over juices flowing with bettors but Im projecting on a lower scoring affair here out of the gate for both sides. Note: Non conference tilts during the first month of the season have failed to eclipse the total in 16 of the 18 games dating back 3 seasons.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home.The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road.

Play under 

Red Sox starter C.Criswell owns a 1.50 ERA in his L/3 starts and in 43.7 innings of work at night has posted a 2.68 ERA. His L/5 starts have all seen the under hit with only one game seeing more than 6 runs scored with none eclipsing this totals plateau of 9. Meanwhile, Crochet the White Sox hurler, has not been allowed to go deep since early August and I expect he will limited to no more more than 4 innings of work, and then the bullpen will take over. The White Sox lefty starter has seen 17 of his 25 starts stay under the total this season and 10 of 15 stay under in night games . On the road on a ML of -125- to +125 he has seen all 3 of his appearances stay under. 

Both these offenses are stumbling of late with the White Sox averaging  2.3 rpg in their L/7 outings with the Red Sox averaging an even lower 2.1 rpg during the same span.

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 28% ROI)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 away games (+5.45 Units / 18% ROI)

BoSox home games vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse in 13 games this season have seen a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored.

The average score of these games was Red Sox 3.4, Opponents 3.3.The total has gone under in   9 of the  last 10 games between the BoSox and White Sox at Fenway Park  with a combined average of  5.6  RPG going on the board )

Play under 

This line has now been bet down to low- based on what I believe to be some false assumptions from some sharps and the public alike. Notre Dame may be in a letdown spot after their big road win against Texas A&M last time out. But this is their first home game of the season, and will want to get their offense unwound behind their new QB , and despite of N.Illinois projecting to be a top 3 MAc team this season- hey, their still a MAC team, and consistent defensive play is not one of things that stands out from this conference. Im betting in a letdown spot or not the Irish do some offensive damage here that will allow this total to be eclipsed. Also Notre Dame flashed some extremely strong D out of the gate vs Texas A&M and may show some wear and tear this week, and as the game goes on and firmly within the grasp of the home side, look for some starters to get rested and for Northern Illinois to find some success late in this game offensively, helping us push this combined score over the Total. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s giving us a strong edge here based on those factors that I have isolated. (From a side perspective Im not quite ready to take the points here despite of perceived value and will elect to pass -with a better safe than sorry mind set) 

Play over

We have a QB duel ready to manifest itself this week in Brazil, as Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts go head to head in a Friday night Football game.  My projections estimate the Eagles will score 28 or more points while the Packers score 23 or more giving us a FG edge on this total making an over bet a viable option. 

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road. The Packers are 5-0 OVER vs NFC East L2 seasons with a combined average of  54.2 ppg scored. 

Eagles are 4-1 OVER in  Game 1 of the season.

Play over

BoSox starter Pivetta is 1-0 with a 1.72 career ERA in eight appearances (five starts) against the White Sox. Meanwhile, Davis Martin , 3.62 ERA goes to the hill for Chicago  . The 27-year-old has never faced Boston.Last Saturday against the Mets, Martin struck out a season-high six in five innings of four-run ball but took the 5-3 loss. He had allowed just four earned runs over his previous four starts and 21 innings.

These pitchers are projected to limit both batting orders and help keep this tilt on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone under in   8 of the  last 9 games between the BoSox and White Sox at Fenway Park  with a combined average of  5.8 RPG going on the board )

Play under 

Im betting that the KC Chiefs d, continues to be their catalyst going forward even though the offense has been upgraded in the off season. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Jackson is still not consistent enough with his passing game, and his legs and the Ravesn running back core will remain their modus operandi which gives credence to a grinding game that stays on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road.

 Primetime games are 160-107  UNDER  with a 15% ROI since 2019 for a 60% conversion rate  .

Play under

Keider Montero goes to hill  for the  Detroit Tigers this Wednesday. night. The Motown righty owns a  5.17 ERA which includes  3.1 walks allowed per nine innings, and has allowed four or more runs in five of his L/9 trips to the mound  and is backed by a bullpen that is ranked 11th with a 3.80 bullpen ERA. He now goes against a Fathers  offense that owns the No.1  ranked  batting average against right-handed pitching in the league vs .274 . Since the All-Star Break, the Padres have averaged 5.3 runs per game, ranking 2nd in the  National League.

The Detroit Tigers rank 3rd in the league for home runs allowed this season (138).

.Meanwhile, Yu Darvish get the ball for the  Padres. Darvish will be making his first MLB appearance since  late May. In his only  minor league rehab outing , he allowed six runs in 3 1/2 innings of sub par work, and projects to get beaten around again vs a Detroit team that averages 4.3 rpg on the road this season. Darvish is backed by a bullpen that ranks 13th with a 3.84 ERA.

Considering the pitching matchup and the offensive prowess of the Padres Im betting enough runs here for the Total to be eclipsed. 

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)The San Diego Padres have only hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 128 games (-22.80 Units / -16% ROI)

Play on the OVER 

The Sun  are now in top form and becoming more more explosive offensively. Seattle will have to provide some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court .  The Storm behind a top tier group are capable of putting up alot of production and that Im betting leads to a much higher scoring affair then the linebackers Totals  line suggests. 

Play over 

Patrick Corbin  the Nationals starter today against the Marlins has pitched decently of late but  he is due for negative regression.   In road games this season he has recorded    6.52 ERA  with opposition batting orders averaging a blistering  .299 BA .  He is backed by a bullpen that owns a 4.10 ERA on the season ranking 22nd in the league .Meanwhile, the Marlins will send out Meyer who enters this tilt with a 5.44 ERA and consistently allows alot of hard contact and an average of 2.1 HRs per 9 innings. He is backed by a bullpen that has garnered a 4.16 ERA ranking 23rd in the league. I know both these offenses have been inconsistent this season, but the pitching matchup favors some early runs and the bullpens when needed will offer below average support giving us an edge with an over wager. 

Fourteen of the Marlins' L/ 17 home games have gone OVER the total .

Play over 

 Luis Severino the Mets starter enters this tilt against the BoSox having  allowed  three runs or more runs in four of his last six starts the diamonds . In his last 11 starts, he has a 4.94 ERA . He is 5-7 with a 4.06 ERA in 16 regular season games (14 starts) against the Red Sox in his career. The right-hander is also 0-1 with a 14.54 ERA in two postseason appearances (one start) against Boston. Severino is backed by  a Mets bullpen that entered Sunday with a 4.39 ERA , which ranks 20th in  MLB ,  Meanwhile  ,Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello enters this trip to the hill with a  4.66 ERA with 3.4 walks per nine innings despite of a solid W/L record. I know hes off. strong shutout effort vs inconsistent Blue Jays team last time out, but now Im expecting immediate regression the mean .  He is backed by a struggling bullpen which is  evident by garnering a ugly 5.96   ERA since the start of July ranking dead last in the the league.

Both offenses are viable with the Mets entering Sunday 11th in the league in scoring with 4.8 runs per game , while the BoSox producing an average  5.2 runs per game on the road ranks third in the league. 

Both these pitchers and their bullpens, look to be in deep here v two productive offenses.

Play on the over

Reds starter Aguiar has allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 14 innings of sub par work.The Reds righty has also allowed five HRS  and has seven strikeouts out of 63 batters faced so balls are in play when hes on the mound which is not a good omen for slowing down this Houston offense, that is producing a much better pace since the all star game and are top 10 offense since Aug 1st vs right handed hurlers like Aguiar . Meanwhile veteran hurler Verlander enters this game previously been on a long lay pff due to injury and  enters this tilt  with a 4.16 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and has allowed  allowed six runs on 11 hits in 10 innings of below average work. The Astros- bulpen is pretty tired so when Verlander leaves the game the Reds runs could keep coming helping with what I bet is an over wager opportunity. 

Play on the OVER

 The Royals starter today Alec Marsh has not been much of a  work horse in recent outings and has not gone past the  sixth inning since July 10, while recording a  4.67 ERA .  Marsh is winless over his last four trips to the hill (three starts), going 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA. He  is backed by a  bullpen that is ranked  25th in the league with a 4.45 ERA. The Astros offense  rank 11th in the league at home averaging 4.7 rpg. .

Meanwhile, the Astros counter with Ronel Blanco who according to my pitcher vs  power rankings does not match up well here vs a Royals offense,   that ranks seventh in the league producing  4.85 rpg. Since the All-Star Break, the Royals have been on fire as is evident by their  .277 BA  and 5.6 rpg  entering weekend action which ranks 2nd in the league. The Astros righty is  0-3 with a 4.69 ERA over his last eight starts.

Both these pitchers are down trending and Im betting on some hard hitting action this afternoon in Houston. 

Play over

James Madison had no problem running up scores last season, even with DD leads  and here against a Charlotte side  that  will be without a number of their starters due injuries that could once again be the case. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Dukes come close to eclipsing this totals offering all by themselves and for Charlotte to do enough damage to help us cash an over bet. 

Play over

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (6-9, 4.39 ERA) is the expected  starter for Houston on Saturday vs the Royals. Kikuchi has pitched decently since coming over to the Astros from the Jays in a trade, but  owns a  a 5.80 ERA over eight career starts against the Royals and my projections estimate he gets lit up here today. Meanwhile,Left-hander Cole Ragans (10-8, 3.28 ERA)goes to the hill  for the Royals . He has also pitched quality ball this season, but has struggled vs the Astros in his so far short career garnering a  5.40 ERA in six career appearances (five starts)s. After yesterdays 3-2 combined score between these teams where the Astros came back late for the win, Im now expecting a more aggressive offensive effort from both sides and a score that eclipses this very beatable total. 

Nine of the Royals' last 12 night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total.

Play on the over 

My projections for this game estimate a score closer to the 60 point plateau. 

The Broncos  will be in tough here in   their season opener on the road against a Georgia Southern team that went 5-1 SU at home last year, has won 16 of its past 17 home openers. With that said, Im betting they give the Broncos a run for their money and what will Im betting not be a defensive style game, but rather a back and forth style track meet (or similar) type of affair. note: Georgia Southern plays a lot of man coverage and that means the speedy Boise State Broncos will be able to take advantage of this and put into play what their new offensive coordinator Koetter says he wants to see more explosive offensive plays which should produce alot of points. On the flipside Georgia Southerns dual threat  QB French is a man under center that maybe highly under rated - after sitting out at Memphis in first season in College football he transfered to GS and went 13 for 16 via 48 snaps, and is ready to be let loose on opponents this season. He will offer up a challenge to the Broncos D. Overall there is alot of good offensive talent on the field for both sides and a over bet is viable investment option. 

Georgia Southern has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)

Dallas loves to play a run and gun type of hoops, and Im betting they force the Lynx to have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own and what I project to end  in being higher scoring affair that produces a  combined score that projects  up into the mid 170s.

Over is 17-5 in Wings last 22 games following a ATS win.Over is 19-7 in Wings last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 39-15-1 in Wings last 55 overall.Over is 5-2 in Wings last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-3 in Wings last 10 Friday games.Over is 36-17 in Wings last 53 home games.Over is 35-17-1 in Wings last 53 vs. Western Conference.

Over is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 overall.Over is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games following a straight up win.

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

Play over

Red Sox starting pitcher tonight vs the Blue Jays Crawford  has recorded a bloated   8.13 ERA while allowing a whopping  14 home runs spanning  his L/ 34 1/3 innings of work since the all star break and enters this game in down trending fashion. Crawford is backed by a  bullpen  that has garnered a ugly 6.09 ERA  ranking 29th in MLB since the beginning of July. The BoSox pitching staff now goes against a suddenly explosive Jays batting order that has averaged  5.5 runs per game since the All-Star Break ranking 3rd in the league. Note: Crawford is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in five appearances (four starts) against Toronto.

Meanwhile, the Jays will respond with Brad Francis that despite of a top tier quality performance last time out, still owns a 4.02 ERA on the season. His metrics do point towards regression in what my projections point to  be an average at best effort here vs a Red Sox batting order that has generated 4.7 rpg since the all str break. WhenFrancis leaves this game, he is backed by a bullpen, that owns a unsteady  4.82 ERA ranking 28th in the league.  

The teams have gone over the total in 12 of the L/18 here in Fenway. 

Play on the OVER 

The Arizona Dbacks will  send E. Rodriguez to the hill to face the NY Mets. The lefty hurler  has allowed at least three runs in two of his three starts this season while garnering a  3.94 ERA. He is backed by a  bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA with a 4.09 ERA. They go against a Mets offense, that is heating up and off a 8 run production performance yesterday and are now averaging 4.9 rpg on the road and up-trending offensively. 

Meanwhile, the Mets  will respond with Luis Severino.  The righty has recorded a  a 3.84 ERA this season but is currently in regression mode having  allowed  four or more runs  in three of his last five trips to the hill. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a 4.03 ERA ranking 17th in the league. The Mets pitching staff faces a Arizona offense, that continues to find ways to produce runs even without Marte and Walker in the lineup. The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.4 rpg since the all star break and on the season are averaging and on the season just under 5.5 rpg. 

Considering the pitching matchup and the expected offensive production as compared to my power ranking projections an over wager here is viable investment option. 

The total has gone OVER in 5  of NY Mets's last 6b games when playing Arizona.

When looking at todays MLB pitching matchup, alot of the public might expect a pitchers duel. I however am taking a contrarian stance, and projecting a higher scoring game than the pundits might expect based on the following observations and data. 

San Franciscos starter Webb has a career road  4.07 ERA .During his time in the Majors he has always been less cohesive in away tilts than at home. He is backed by a Giants  bullpen that recorded a 4.19 ERA which ranks in 24th in MLB . The Giants pitchers go against the Brewers 8th ranked offense in baseball averaging 4.8 rpg. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers  will send rookie starting pitcher Tobias Myers to the hill to face a  Giants  offense  that is ranked  15th in scoring with 4.3 runs per game and rank 3rd in HRS in baseball on the road. I know Myers has garnered a 2.87 ERA so far this season, but his overall metrics suggest regression at some point. The young pitcher is backed by a bullpen that ranks 13th in MLB since July 1st with an ERA of 3.75. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games on the road.

Five of the Giants’ last six road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total Nine of the Brewers’ last 11 games as underdogs against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total .

Play over

Two time defending champs the Aces after a few lackluster performances have to get things going in a hurry if they want to achieve a threepeat. Tonight against a now healthy Dallas side that loves to run and gun, Im expecting a spirited affair that eclipses this total.

Over is 5-1-1 in Wings last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 17-4 in Wings last 21 games following a straight up win.Over is 21-6-1 in Wings last 28 vs. Western Conference.Over is 17-5-1 in Wings last 23 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 38-15-1 in Wings last 54 overall.Over is 18-8-1 in Wings last 27 games following a ATS loss. 

Over is 35-17 in Wings last 52 home games.Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the  OVER

Blue Jays starter  Berrios has recorded a 4.91 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road  this season. At home  the right hander  owns a solid   2.81 ERA , which shows an obvious discrepancy.  He has also allowed  a .357 wOBA to opposing batters in away tilts , which is not a good omen against a BoSox side that has recorded a  .335 wOBA against right-handed pitchers for the season ranking them 2nd in the league in this category.

Meanwhile, the The Red Sox own the fifth-worst ERA over the past two weeks in  MLB( 5.53 )with opposing batting orders smashing them for a  .273 BA including 21 HRS.  With Nick Pivetta on the hill things dont look to get much better here. The righty , allowed five runs last time out  and has given up two more more HRS in his L/5 trips to the hill.

Note: Toronto is 28-13 OVER in divisional play this season. The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto.

Play on the OVER

Astros starter Blanco owns a   9-6 record on the season along with a   3.14 ERA.  It must be noted however,  that he has recently seen regression on his overall metrics  as  he has allowed 3 or more runs  in three of his last five trips to the hill.

The right-hander lasted just 3 2/3 innings in his last outing a  6-5 loss to the Boston Red Sox. In that game he allowed a  season-high five earned runs , while  walking four batters. 

 Today against a Philadelphia offense that has scored 4 or more runs in 3 straight games this past weekend and averaging 5.53 rpg at home this season, and also averaging .298 team batting average over their L/10 games  Im betting Blanco takes more abuse here  again today.

Meanwhile, Wheeler the Phillies starter ,  has been in top form most of this season , but the Astros bats have been fairly consistent of late, as was  the case this past weekend in a 6-0 win garnering 8 hits  vs the Os and their top pitcher Burnes . The Astros veteran batters can make the best of pitchers look very average . It must also be noted that Wheeler is backed by a bullpen that has garnered  a bloated   5.24 ERA since July 1st ranking a lowly 27th over that period of time. 

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Quintana, who is 6-9 with a 4.57 ERA . Quintana has allowed 7, 4, and 5 earned runs respectively in his last three trips to the hill.Meanwhile, the Padres expected stater  Martin Perez, owns a  3-5 record along  with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Hes pithed decently of late, but according to my pitcher vas batting order power rankings does. not matchup well here vs the Mets. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home.

Seven of the Padres' last eight day games as favorites have gone OVER the total .

Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+12.90 Units / 35% ROI)

Play over

The Phillies are expected to start Kolby Allard  vs the Royals today in KC today. I dont expect Allard to  go deep today, as he has  gone five innings or less in his 3 appearances this season, He has a stable looking 3.46 ERA on the campaign, but his metrics scream negative regression. The lefty also garnered a bloated 5.75 ERA in his minor league outings this season spanning  21  separate trips to the hill. He is backed by a struggling bullpen that owns a  5.22 ERA  ranking 27th in the league since the start of July. My projections estimate it will be a long day for the Phillies pitching staff vs a Royal offense that averages 5.3 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile,Seth Lugo, goes to the mound for the Royals. He similar to Allard owns a stable  3.02 ERA overall, but continued regression is expected as he has now allowed 6 runs or more in 3 of his L/5 starts overall. I know the Phillies have been inconsistent offensively of late, but there is to much talent in their battling order for things to stay dormant much longer, and Lugo opens up an opportunity for a big time offensive production event as after he leaves the game the Royals bullpen has shown low levels of success this season, recording a 4.31 which ranks 25th in MLB.  With that said, everything points to a runfest today in Kansas City from these two pro baseball combatants the Phillies and the Royals. 

The Kansas City Royals have only hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 28 games (-11.05 Units / -35% ROI)

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games at home.

Play over

The Steelers have struggled to move the ball downfield in preseason play so far scoring 12 points in game 1 , and just 3 points last week despite of playing their starting offensive cogs . The struggles could easily carry on here this week, as their schemes still need plenty of work. Meanwhile, the Lions offense goes against a very deep Steelers defense. 

Play under

This line is tainted thanks to the Lynx astounding shooting metrics when these teams met earlier this week .According to my projections this totals offering should be closer 162 giving us one of my bigger edges of the season with my totals selections.

Under is 8-3 in Lynx last 11 overall.Under is 7-3 in Lynx last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-1 in Lynx last 7 home games.Under is 4-1 in Lynx last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

Under is 5-1 in Aces last 6 Friday games.Under is 4-1 in Aces last 5 road games.Over is 7-2 in Aces last 9 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Aces last 7 overall.

Play under

Kyle Freeland (3-5, 5.97), who is 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA in his past three outings, goes for the Rockies and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here today vs the Yankees. Freeland's only career start against the Yankees was in  2019 in New York, when he was beaten around  for five runs in a 8-2 loss. With the Yankees offense surging behind the bat of Aaron Judge who has six homers in his last seven games while  hitting .459 (17-for-37) with seven homers and 13 RBIs during his season-high 10-game hitting streak Im betting Freeland gets smacked around again. Note: Yankees are also expected to get Jazz Chisholm back from injury today which makes them even more dangerous from a run production perspective. Meanwhile, Yankees expected starting hurler  Carlos Rodon (13-8, 4.34 ERA) is looking decent of late but I remember him imploding back in June and July garnering a  0-5 record along  with a bloated  9.67 ERA in six starts and feel he is do for negative regression. Rodon allowed four runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in a  4-0 loss at Detroit last time out. 

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 67 games (+18.35 Units / 25% ROI)

The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Play over

The Mets  Severino Im betting is going to tired after a complete game with a  113-pitch count vs the  Marlins and is on just 4 days rests. Severino has   struggled after throwing 100+ pitches in a previous start and projects to get pounded here tonight by the free swinging Padres.. The Mets right hander has gone over 100 pitches  four times this season  and in the next trip to the hill , he’s allowed 4, 5, 6, and 4 runs respectively and my projections say this is a rinse and repeat situation here today. On the flipside,the Padres will hand the ball to Dylan Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA) . He faced the Mets  on June 16 where he gave up seven hits and seven runs in 3 2/3 innings with three walks in a 11-6 loss. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest he does not matchup well here again  and projects to allow 4 or more runs. Everything points to this seeing the combined score easily eclipse this total. 

Play over

The Cards and the Brewers play the final game of three game series today.Freddy Peralta  (8-7, 4.00) goes to the hill  for the Brewers . The Milwaukee righty  has allowed  four or more  runs in four of his last seven starts and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings projects to be vulnerable  to being beaten up on. I know he looked good last time out vs Cleveland, but the Guardians bats have gone silent lately.  Peralta is 3-6 with a 5.25 ERA in 17 career outings against the Cardinals, including 13 starts and this season has allowed 12 hits in 12 innings of work against them.  Meanwhile, the Cards starter Mikolas has recorded a 5.41 ERA with at least three runs allowed four straight starts. The veteran right hander has looked frustrated in his home outings at Bush Stadium this season as is evident by a  6.53 ERA and projects to struggle again vs a sometimes explosive Brewers offense that averages 4.9 rpg on the road ranking 8th in the league. After a decent season, the Cards bullpen owns a 3.82 ERA since the beginning of July ranking 16th which does not bode well for them halting a Brewers attack.Mikolas is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee this season. He has allowed eight runs on 15 hits in 10 2/3 innings .he total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games on the roadThe St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+5.15 Units / 8% ROI)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)

Play over

Joey Cantillo goes to the hill for the Cleveland Guardians today vs the Yankees. The lefty is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA this season. Cantillo has allowed 15 hits and 9 runs in 13 sub standard  innings of work this season.  His lack of experience ( 3 previous MLB starts) and sub standard work to this point do not bode well for him against this explosive NYY offense. Also after going just one  for 16 with men in scoring position Im betting on positive offensive regression in this spot from the Yankees .  Meanwhile,Nestor Cortes goes to the mound for the  NY Yankees. The southpaw  is 6-10 with a 4.20 ERA on the season, I know the Guardians are struggling to score and hit right now but are projected to have success here tonight with momentum after last nights late scoring splurge.   Both hurlers look vulnerable, and after watching these teams take part in a 9-5 tilt yesterday where Cleveland bats came to life late with 6 last runs for a win, its become obvious that both are ready for positive offensive production. These teams have gone over in their L/3 meetings- The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home\

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 95 games (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI)The New York Yankees have only hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 79 games (-30.00 Units / -35% ROI) 

Play over

Astros Right-hander Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.89 ERA) is expected to go to the hill  for the Astros on Tuesday. vs the visiting BoSox. Blanco remains winless over his last six starts (0-3, 4.06 ERA). Meanwhile, fellow Right-hander Nick Pivetta (5-8, 4.49 ERA) is th starting for the Red Sox.  Pivetta is 1-4 with a 5.17 ERA over his last nine start .He is backed by a tired lookin gbullpen that 5.35 ERA over their L/10 games.  Considering both offenses are top form, and going  against starting  pitchers who are currently in what I will call average mode, a boatload full of runs could easily cross home plate early on in this game, and help us easily eclipse the total. The BoSox since the all star break have averaged 6.1 rpg, while the Astros are batting .281 in their last 10 games overall.The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing Boston.The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 16 games on the road.

Play over 

BoSox starters Houck’s  has garnered  a 4.98 ERA in his last eight starts and projects to have issues here tonight vs a Houston offense, that averages 4.8 rpg at home this season, while rankling 7th in slugging %. Also considering the Red Sox bullpen recording a 6.45 ERA since July their  should be plenty of run production from the Astros. Meanwhile, Astros starter Kukuchi despite of pitching well for his new team since coming over from the Jays in a trade, goes against MLBs top scoring team at 6.1 rpg since the all star break. In his previous 13 starts Kikuchi owns a 6.23 ERA.   The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston. The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games on the road. 

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games (+15.85 Units / 24% ROI)

Play over

Neither team has announced a starting pitcher for the series opener.

On Sunday, the Rays beat Arizona 8-7 in 12 innings. The slash-lines displayed. a top tier offensive  effort from the Dbacks and the other metrics displayed a tired looking pitching staff not performing at optimal levels. Because of that ugly pitching performance Arizona was swept by the Rays, and will now be primed to bounce back vs a lower opponent in Miami. The Dback  lead the majors with 656 runs scored and Im betting they tee off again today. The big problem will come via a under performing group of hurlers. Note: The Diamondbacks pitching staff  rank 25th in  MLB with a 4.46 ERA, while the  Marlins pitching staff ranks 28th along with a  (4.59 ERA ).Miami's bullpen ranks 15th in ERA in MLB  (3.92), while Arizona's bullpen ranks  19th (4.14 ERA ). With the Dbacks capable of eclipsing this total all be themselves taking an over stance here is a viable investment option. 

Play on the over

Sonny Gray the Cards starting pitcher for  Sunday's matchup at Dodger Stadium with 3.68 xERA and has an elite  11.2 K/9 rate along  with a 109 ERA+ . He has had great success against the Dodgers explosive offense in his career, holding them to a .188/.229/.391 slash line in  138 at-bats. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw enters this tilt, having only pitched 18 innings this season , but has looked good while garnering a steady (3.84 xERA with his breaking stuff really setting batters back ). The veteran lefty has faired well in his career vs  Cardinals, as is evident by a  .615 OPS ( 200+ ABs) . He has been  over powering vs  Tommy Pham (4-for-22, seven strikeouts), Paul Goldschmidt (14-for-68, 25 strikeouts) and Willson Contreras (7-for-30, 11 strikeouts)..Add to that both bullpens are top tier and both are healthy and we have the making of a lower scoring affair. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home. 

Play on the under. 

. 

Colin Rea the Brewers starter today vs the Guardians was blown up last time out allowing  seven runs  to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Meanwhile, Guardians expected  starter, against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday , Lively was pulled after he gave up three earned runs, including two home runs, four walks and five hits in just 2/3 innings of work. Lively is 0-3 in  four career outings against Milwaukee, with a 3.47 ERA.  Bottom line: These pitchers look to be a regressionary situation mode  and they could easily get lit up by a  Brewers side that is top 10 in the league with 4.8 runs per game out put , while the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game ranking 12th in the league .

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 123 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)

St. Louis will start Andre Pallante (4-6, 4.21 ERA) today against the explosive offense of the LA Dodgers ranked No.5 in MLB with a 4.93 rpg output.  Note: Cardinals have allowed 34 runs in their L/5 games for an average of 6.8 rpg. 

Meanwhile, the banged up starting pitching of the Dodgers had to call up B. Miller, who was sidelined by shoulder issues  earlier this season. The righty owned  is 0-1 record along with a bloated  5.82 ERA in five Triple-A outings during the 2024 campaign. He projects  to get rocked by a  Cardinals side that averages 4.62 rpg at home this season. The dodgers have allowed 17 runs in their L/3 games-high probability of rinse and repeat event taking place again today in what Im betting will see a combined score that eclipses this total/ 

The total has gone OVER in 10 of St. Louis's last 14 games at home.

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.70 Units / 38% ROI)

Play over

The Lions have a offensive mind set and despite of alot of starters not playing today and the perception that they are not a deep offensive  team, is misplaced in my opinion as they are more than capable of cranking it up and putting points on the board here today behind their backups. Yes, they struggled last week to move the ball, but that will make the coaching staff all that more aggressive today as they look to get things rolling in a positive direction.  It must be noted that on the flipside the Lions D, remains an issue and in recent preseason ball own a 12-5 L/17  Over  record in NFLX  games, allowing an average  24.3 PPG. With that said, look for a higher scoring tilt that eclipses this total. The Lions  have gone 10-0 OVER the total in the last 10 games following a preseason defeat.  Teams like the Lions that scored  10 points or less  in their previous preseason contest have gone 78-57-1 Over  L/ 136 games in the next game dating back to  2010. The average combined score of these tilts rings in at 41.2 ppg. 

Play over 

Former Cleveland Guardian Civale goes to the hill for the Milwaukee Brewers. The Guardians obviously have a big book on Civale and Im betting the Guardians batting order  take advantage of that tonight. The Brewers righty has had a sub standard season as is evident by garnering a 5.02 ERA and according to my projections does not matchup well vs a Guardians offense that averages 4.6 rpg which ranks in the upper half of MLB. Civale is backed by a strong bullpen, that  looks to be starting to tire down the stretch, as they have recorded a 3.55 ERA since the beginning of July. Civale has allowed 12 hits and 7 runs in his last 10.1 innings

Meanwhile, Guardians starter Gavin Williams owns a  4.38 ERA this season and also carries a high walk rate ( 3 per9innings). He is also backed by a bullpen with great overall numbers, but have not looked as dominant of late, and according to my power rankings ( pitching vs batting order numbers could be in trouble here today) vs a Brewers offense that averages 4.8 rpg which ranks top 10 in the league.

The Milwaukee Brewers rank 3rd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.332).The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 121 games (+14.00 Units / 11% ROI)

Play on the over

The Atlanta Dream are still banged up, even with the rest - and will just be trying to slow this game down to compete with the explosive and mostly healthy Seattle Storm . This translates in a lower scoring grinding affair that fails to eclipse this total.

Under is 8-1 in Storm last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Under is 4-1 in Storm last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Storm last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-1 in Dream last 5 overall.

Under is 4-1 in Dream last 5 games following a straight up loss. Under is 5-2 in Dream last 7 vs. Western Conference.Under is 16-7 in Dream last 23 home games.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play under