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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-26-23 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 36.5 in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams @ 9 ET - Yes it is only preseason but perhaps a little extra hunger to get into the win column here? Both teams are 0-2 so far and I think you'll see a good push for points here in this one! I also like the fact this is Denver's only home game in the preseason. The weather will be great and, keep in mind, the field goals can be made from extra distance here in the thin air of Denver. Being preseason and not having to be overly concerned with risk of giving the opponent great field position on a long field goal miss, why not try them? Exactly! So you could see some extra field goals made in this one, some excellent field position on misses, and the points are going to add up in this one. The Rams defense got crushed through the air last week and this was after getting destroyed on the ground the week before. The Broncos offense will be able to pick their poison here and the LA defense will be the victim. However, the Rams offense should enjoy success here too as it is not exactly an accident that Denver is 0-2 so far this preseason. So, given a low total and two teams who might be a little extra aggressive in emphasizing scoring opportunities, look for a solid winner here as both teams score well in this one on a nice evening in Colorado. 10* OVER 36.5 in Denver |
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08-28-22 | Giants v. Jets OVER 38 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in New York Jets vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Jets have been giving up a lot of yardage but so too have the Giants. Also the Giants have shown they'll keep slinging the ball around on the field no matter what the situation is and who is on the field. That said, the Jets are expected to play starters more in this one but all I am seeing from this is points. That's because the Jets defense also struggled in that first game of the season against the Eagles in the first half before they rallied for the win. I just do not care for what I have seen from either defense this preseason including almost the entirety of when the back-ups are in. Also there is still a lot of QB evaluation going on here with back-ups so both teams will continue to throw a lot in this preseason finale. Note that each teams first two games have totaled at least 40 points this preseason. Also, their game last preseason was low-scoring but that was week 1. Note that their week 3 games saw the Jets game total 62 points and the Giants game total 42 points. We'll get into the 40s here based on the way these two teams have been playing in this preseason and what I am expecting to see here based on how the teams are approaching this preseason finale. 10* OVER 38 in New York Jets |
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08-27-22 | Eagles v. Dolphins OVER 37 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* OVER 37 in Miami @ 7 ET - The Dolphins scored only 13 points in last week's loss but it was a deceiving final point tally as they had over 300 yards of passing offense in that one. As for the Eagles, each of their first two games totaled over 40 points and so too did Miami's first game of this preseason. Philadelphia on a 4-1 O/U run in preseason games under their new head coach and the only one that did not go over did see them allow 35 points. In other words, expect plenty of points here because did score an average of 31 points per game in their last 3 preseason home games prior to the low-scoring loss to the Raiders last week. Again, the Dolphins did have solid yardage in that game through the air and I like what they have been doing in terms of the QB rotation in this preseason and ditto for the Eagles. 10* OVER 37 in Miami |
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08-26-22 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Yes it is preseason. Yes you don't see all the starters. Yes you don't see teams wanting to show their playbook on offense very much either. However, one of the keys to how preseason games play out is a team wanting to win it. In this case I think former Patriots OC, Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels has extra motivation just like his Patriots adversary has here too. That means later in a preseason game where most teams typically are just trying to run the clock and get the game over with, I feel this one plays out much differently. Whoever is trailing will keep pushing to score. Neither wants to lose this game no matter what they have (or would) otherwise say. There is a little extra motivation here and the result will be more points I am sure. Raiders would love to finish preseason 4-0 by knocking off McDaniels former team. Las Vegas gave up more yardage than you would think though in last week's 15-13 win over Miami. Also, the Patriots allowed only 10 points last week but Carolina sat top two QB's. This one plays out differently than the unders these teams just had! 10* OVER 37 in Las Vegas |
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08-25-22 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 36 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers @ 8 ET - The odds makers opened this one up near 40 and it immediately plummeted and is now down to a 36 as of game day. Personally I love when the betting markets think they know so much more than the smartest people in the room. Who are those guys? The odds makers! That is not to say you can blindly fade every line move. Of course not, but when the situation is right it opens up a wealth of value. This one blew right past the key numbers of 38 and 37 on NFL totals and I am happy to invest on the over 36 here. Both teams playing a slew of back-ups throughout this one. So you really think you are going to see great defense all night long in a case like this? Of course not. Also, Love has looked strong at QB for the Packers thus far in the pre-season. The Chiefs have Henne getting action here and then a good battle for the #3 spot between Buechele and Crum. How will head coach Andy Reid evaluate this QB situation? It certainly will not be by seeing how good these guys are at handing the ball off! The point is there will quite a bit more offense than many expecting here. Note that Green Bay has already scored at least 20 in each game of this preseason but, prior to last week's solid defensive effort, the Packers allowed an average of 24 points per game last 8 preseason games and NEVER allowed less than 19 in any of those 8 games! Over was 6-2 in those 8 preseason games and that trend resumes here. Chiefs 24-14 win last week was 4th straight home preseason game totaling at least 38 points. Those 4 games averaged 47.5 points scored and I fully expect this one to get into the 40s as well. 10* OVER 36 in Kansas City |
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08-20-22 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 39 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 39 in Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers @ 7 ET - The Vikings 6-2 to the over last 8 NFLX games after last week's 26-20 loss to the Raiders. Vikings have allowed 25 points per game last 4 preseason games. On the others side of the ball I do like the fact that Minnesota picked up over 100 yards on the ground last week at Las Vegas plus had two touchdown passes and no turnovers in the game. The Vikes offense should continue to fare well here against a 49ers defense that was bailed out by some turnovers generated last week because, overall, San Francisco did allow a lot of yardage. In terms of offensive production though, the Niners are looking good with 3 different quarterbacks throwing for a TD last week! Off that 28-21 win, note that SF has now averaged 23 ppg last 8 NFLX games. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting this game to get well into the 40s. 10* OVER 39 in Minnesota |
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08-19-22 | Texans v. Rams OVER 38 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFLX Friday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans @ 10 ET - Under new head coach Lovie Smith, the Texans are hungrier for the win here. However, hard to trust them to get it in my opinion but what I like here is that the effort will be there. Houston off a low-scoring win last week and that has led to some extra value this week on the over. The Texas threw 3 interceptions last week and I do not expect a repeat of that here. Also, Houston was fortunate to give up only 13 points in that game. I like the fact that Rams QB Perkins had a good game last week and I expect him to come up big again this week. With LA likely to play solid at home (even though it is back-ups) and with having allowed over 300 yards of offense last week and being somewhat fortunate to win (29-22 final), I expect a lot of points here. Texans will get theirs but Rams will hang around in this game too. I feel the side could really go either way but look for some solid scoring here. The high-scoring trending we saw in Week 1 preseason continued even with an under in last night's Bears win at Seattle as that one totaled 38 points and very nearly ended up being a late bad beat for under players but it hung on. The point is that scoring continues to be up and I expect that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams |
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08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 40 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 40 in Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears @ 8 ET - After all the high-scoring games in Week 1 of preseason now your seeing the result in inflated totals this week. That doesn't mean it will be all unders this week for sure but, rather, it just means there is some extra value in certain spots. In my mind, the Thursday night game is one of those! The Bears only allowed 205 yards of offense to the Chiefs last week. Keep in mind their new head coach was a defensive coordinator. They allowed a TD just before half last week or the final could have easily been 19 to 7 instead of 19 to 14 in that game. Also, their 4 scoring drives in the game, all in the 2nd half, averaged just 37.5 yards apiece so it is not like they were moving the ball like crazy on offense in that game. The Seahawks are off a high-scoring loss at Pittsburgh and I look for them to shore some things up on defense after the way that game played out. History is certainly on our side in that regard as Seattle entered last week's game with 6 of last 7 preseason games being unders over the past two preseasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* UNDER 40 in Seattle |
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08-13-22 | Panthers v. Washington Commanders OVER 37 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Washington Commanders vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - The QB play here should key an over. Excellent QB rotations for a preseason game and that should help push this one way over. I like the QB situation for both Carolina (now with Mayfield added) and Washington (Wentz expected to play) and plenty of talent behind these guys read to battle it out. The Commanders have allowed 23 points per game in last 4 preseason games and Carolina has allowed at least 19 points in 4 of last 6 preseason games. Look for this one to get into the 40s as we see some strong quarterback play throughout. Really each team is 3-deep with solid talent at the QB position. Like this factor plus the fact we have seen the games trending to high-scoring so far in this pre-season. More of the same here. 10* OVER 37 in Washington |
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08-04-22 | Raiders v. Jaguars OVER 30.5 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 30.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8 ET in HOF Game in Canton, OH - This is a road game for both teams of course because it is a neutral site game. Note that last pre-season saw the Raiders two road games both total at least 33 points. 2020 there was no preseason. 2019, the Raiders had two road games and a neutral site game. All 3 of those games away from home totaled at least 32 points. So this is a 5-0 situation for Las Vegas in terms of NFLX games away from home totaling at least 32 points. As for the Jaguars, both their road preseason games (and their home game for that matter) all totaled at least 36 points with the two roadies both totaling at least 34 points! So the point is that we have a double perfect situation here with 5-0 L5 for the Raiders and a 3-0 L3 for Jacksonville. This one gets to at least 32 (but I expect much more) and yet we are working with a total of only 30.5 points because of the reputation of the HOF game to be a low-scoring grinder. This total has ended up too low in the markets in my opinion. Keep in mind, each team has new head coaches and Pederson is an offensive-minded coach and former NFL QB and McDaniels was the offensive coordinator of the Patriots for more than a decade. No matter who is on the field here, yes a lot of unknowns, there will be more offense than most are expecting given all of the above. Keep in mind, Jags have allowed 24 points per game last 7 NFLX and Raiders allowed 23 points per game L5 NFLX non-home games. 10* OVER 30.5 in Hall of Fame Game |
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08-29-21 | Jaguars v. Cowboys OVER 36 | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #125 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have a battle going on for the #2 QB spot behind Dak Prescott. Now that Prescott has been pronounced fit for week one of the regular season, that means Gilbert and Rush will definitely be fully turned loose in this game to battle it out in this contest. Considering they are up against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 23 points in each game thus far, I like our chances for plenty of Cowboys points here. Both of these teams are winless on the preseason and that is even with Dallas having already played 3 games thus far. I don't think either team will hold back in going for the win here no matter that it is a preseason game. As for the Jaguars QB situation, of course we may not see starter Trevor Lawrence in this one but CJ Beathard has been solid for the Jags in the preseason. In fact, other than the 2 picks thrown by Gardner Minshew (now traded away to Eagles), take a look at the Jags other QB numbers: 50 of 75 for 443 yards and 4 TDs and no INTs. Considering that as well as a very aggressive effort from the Cowboys QBs in this one I am expecting a high-scoring contest here. 10* OVER 36 in Dallas |
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08-22-21 | Giants v. Browns OVER 35 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 35 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - Pair of Philly guys, both 39 years old, are squaring off in this coaching match-up. Joe Judge of the Giants and Kevin Stefanski of the Browns both grew up in Philly at the same time and have held joint practices this week leading into this game. This total opened up at a 38.5 and has dropped all the way to a 35. I see good value with the over. Cleveland played fast last week. The game had a good pace for both the Browns and their opponent. Cleveland did blitz some in that game and put quite a bit of pressure on the Jaguars. I do not expect that same aggressive game plan here. I actually expect a bit of a friendly game if you will because of this coaching match-up. That said, the Giants are off a disastrous effort and scored just 7 points last week and need to be much better this week. I feel certain they will open up the offense quite a bit more this week and, even though this game will again be all about the back-ups, look for plenty of points. Both teams cut loose a little bit here and I just do not expect a lot of special defensive scheming, etc. Love fading line moves and based on the Browns being at home and likely to dictate a fast pace again on offense here, I look for this one to fly over the total. 10* OVER 35 in Cleveland |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos OVER 40.5 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #431 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8 ET - Despite 27 points scored in the 2nd half of last week's game (a good sign for expecting plenty of points the following week), the Broncos game last week fell one point short of going over the total. Yes, the Hall of Fame Game this season also included Denver and also resulted in an under. But I can not ignore the fact that the Broncos O/U went a perfect 4-0 in preseason action in 2018. After back to back unders to open the preseason, the over trending resumes for the Broncos here. The 49ers had an easy over when they got drilled by Denver in 2017 in preseason action. That is one of 3 overs (against just 1 under) that San Francisco has in their last 4 meetings with AFC West opponents in preseason action. Both teams want to see some bigger offensive production in this one after some struggles thus far in preseason action. They each have the QB rotations to get the job done too and, again, I like the big scoring we saw in the 2nd half of the Broncos/Seahawks to carry over to this game which is also Denver's first home game of this preseason. As for the Niners, they did score 10 points in the 4th quarter of last week's game and I expect the back-ups (always a key in preseason) to again lead to plenty of points in this match-up. Look for the over in Broncos to improve to 3-0 in preseason action when they enter a game off an ATS loss. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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08-18-19 | Saints v. Chargers OVER 42 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #427 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers New Orleans Saints @ 4 ET - The Chargers had their run game going last week which means they'll work more on their passing game this week. The fact is their offensive attack was quite balanced in last week's loss at Arizona. The problem was that LA had two key turnovers that took points off the board. Los Angeles scored only 13 points because they fumbled at the Cardinals 2 to end a long drive and they also threw a pick at the Cards 20 to end another drive. Chargers will put more points on the board Sunday as they face a Saints team that lost 34-25 last week. Also, last preseason the over was 2-0 in New Orleans road games as the Saints scored an average of 30 points per game. Last week's 24 point effort means NO has scored 24 or more points in 4 of their last 5 preseason games. The over went 3-1 in Chargers preseason games last year. Also, LA has allowed an average of 28 points per game in their past 4 preseason home games. This total opened up in the mid-40s and has dropped to the low-40s as of early game day morning. Take advantage of the O/U move as the Saints are 7-1-1 to the over when playing with 8 days of rest between preseason games. The over is 16-9 in preseason games for LA when they are off a game in which they scored 14 points or less. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers |
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08-17-19 | Browns v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #417 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns @ 4 ET - The Browns put up 30 points last week and had over 400 passing yards. The Colts only scored 16 points last week but I like the fact they scored 13 in the fourth quarter and that they are at home for their Week 2 match-up. This total may look a little high since it opened at 43 but these numbers are not pulled out of thin air so think about that for a moment. The number was set this way because of these QB rotations and the way they are expected to play this one in terms of play-calling, etc. In other words, don't let the big number keep you away. The fact is that the Browns are fully capable of another big day offensively but the Colts will score much better on their home field. Cleveland scored an average of 27.5 points per game in their two road games in pre-season last year. Indianapolis scored an average of 22 points per game in their 4 preseason games last year. The Colts will make some adjustments and throw more after struggling in the first half of last week's game. Of course both teams have some extra rest here since this is a Saturday game and they played on Thursday last week. The over is a long-term 16-9 in pre-season action when the Colts are playing after a week in which they played a Thursday game. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis |
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08-15-19 | Packers v. Ravens OVER 36.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #407 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers @ 7:30 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 40 down to a 36.5 as of early morning on game day. I like the added value here based on what I am hearing about QB rotations, etc. Yes the Ravens shut out the Jaguars last week but have you looked at the Jacksonville QB rotation behind Nick Foles? Yikes! In any event, the Packers are going to put up much more of a challenge to the Ravens defense. Green Bay scored 28 points last week and the Ravens scored 29 points last week. All those pounding the under here are not giving enough consideration to the point production these two teams had last week. Also, the fact that the Packers have a young head coach (LaFleur) and the Ravens have a coach (Harbaugh) known for his desire to win preseason games, that means you have a situation where both teams are likely to push a little harder for a win. The point being that whichever team is down late is going to be throwing plenty, possibly running no-huddle sets, etc. The over is 14-9 the last 23 times the Ravens have been a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Green Bay is 4-2 to the over the last 6 times they have played a non-conference opponent in preseason action. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-09-19 | Bucs v. Steelers OVER 37 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #273 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:30 ET - The Steelers were 3-1 to the over in the preseason last year and they scored an average of 30 points per game! The Buccaneers have a new head coach in Bruce Arians. In Thursday's games, teams that had a new head coach that was coaching their first game of preseason (so excluding Denver as they played in HOF Game last week) went 4-1 to the over! Arians last was a head coach in 2017 with the Cardinals. In that preseason the Cards played in the HOF Game so they had a total of 5 games. Of course that final game (Week 4 of preseason) every year is truly a crap-shoot but, in the first 4 games of that NFLX season, Arians' Cardinals averaged 21 points per game. Tampa Bay, of course, had a different head coach last season, it is worth noting they were a perfect 4-0 to the over last season. The Bucs, not including the particularly meaningless Week 4 game, scored an average of 29 points per game in the first 3 preseason games. Considering the QB rotations for this game, the nice weather in Pittsburgh this evening, and the aforementioned high-scoring trending...this one has the makings of a game that should get well past 40 in total points. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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08-25-18 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 | 6-16 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #267 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans @ 4 ET - This one opened up as one of the biggest totals on the board for this week's preseason action. Now, as of about 5 hours before kickoff, the total is holding in the range of the 44 that it dropped to. The markets have moved this one down and appear to be fading the under. I am certainly not going to "play games" here and try to time when all the scoring ends for each of these teams. Both have been involved in high-scoring games in each of their two preseason games thus far. As a result, many are just playing the "fade" theory here and feeling that now an under must result after a 2-0 over mark for each thus far. There is no reason to believe that to be the case. Both teams have shown the "style" with which they're going to play this preseason and the result has been plenty of points. Next week it certainly could change as Week 4 of the NFL preseason is always a "unique animal" but in Week 3 things are very likely to stay the same as this is "dress rehearsal" week so teams are fine-tuning everything they've been developing through the preseason thus far. With that said, I see every reason to again expect plenty of points to be scored in this one based on QB rotations, overall player rotations, and the mindset of each coaching staff coming into this one. Another shootout ensues. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins OVER 43.5 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #255 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Redskins vs Denver Broncos @ 7:30 ET - Oftentimes it is hot and humid in DC at this time of year but a cool front just moved through and it is going to be very pleasant weather this evening in DC. That certainly won't hurt our chances of a high-scoring match-up here as energy levels should remain high throughout. Broncos games are 2-0 to the over this preseason and both of those games were at home. Now Denver is on the road where the over is a perfect 3-0 in their last 3 preseason games. The Broncos have scored an average of 24 points per game in their last 4 preseason games on the road. However, Denver has also allowed an average of 23 points per game in their last 3 preseason games away from home. The Redskins, after seeing their first game go over the total, did stay under the total in Week 2 of the preseason. However, Washington moved the ball well but scored only 15 points because they settled for 5 field goals. Flip that to a more "normal" 3 TDs and 2 FGs for their five scores and you've got 27 points on the board instead of 15. The Redskins already lost RB Derrius Guice to injury so don't be surprised if they stay away from a lot of "pounding the ground" against Denver's defense. Last week only 4 of the Skins 20 first downs came on the ground. They'll continue to emphasize the passing attack here which is always good when you're on an over. As for the Broncos, their first two games have seen the totals average 58.5 points. I am very comfortable that we get this one to at least the upper 40s in points! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-18-18 | Raiders v. Rams OVER 38 | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #419 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Oakland Raiders @ 4 ET - Earlier in the week this total was as high as a 42.5 and now, as of game day morning, there are shops with this one as low as a 38. First off, we have value here but, secondly, there is a situational aspect to this game that I believe the markets are not measuring properly at all. That is the fact that these teams open up the regular season in Week 1 on Monday September 10th. Of course that means the teams are wanting to be extremely vanilla in this match-up. This is part of what is driving the markets to move this total lower and lower. However, the reality is that the fact that the defenses are each going to be extremely vanilla here is what should really be factored into it. If you're not showing special coverage packages in your secondary or you're not putting together different stunts or looks or blitz packages, a defense is pretty easy to beat just with regular play-calling on offense. That is the key point here and that is the reasoning behind why I expect this game, perhaps more than any other one this preseason, to play out like a complete dress rehearsal. As a result, I expect the end product to be more than enough offense to get over the low total posted on this game. With both teams off of Week 1 games where their offenses did not put up many points, there has been an over-reaction from the markets. This game is highly likely to play out much differently than many expect as the key is going to be very vanilla defensive schemes. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams |
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08-11-18 | Vikings v. Broncos OVER 35.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NFL Game #279 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings @ 9 ET - When most people think of the Vikings and Broncos the first thing that comes to mind is defense. That said, regular season and pre-season handicapping are two entirely different animals and the focus for both teams in this match-up is going to production on offense. The interesting dynamic too is that the Vikings and Broncos each have quarterbacks previously with the opponent they're facing today. Certainly don't expect to see much of Case Keenum here but Trevor Siemian and Kyle Sloter will play a lot here against their former team. Meanwhile, behind Keenum it will be Paxton Lynch playing hard for the #2 spot in a battle with Chad Kelly. I feel the extra dynamics of Siemian and Sloter against former organization and a good battle at the back-up QB spot for the Broncos should lead to a rather entertaining affair here. The total has risen from its opener and with two teams that most consider "defensive teams" and yet a total on the rise in a preseason game you know that it is likely sharp money that is involved in the move. Add my sharp money to the pile as well and look for this one to fly over the total. Perfect weather for this one too. 8* OVER the total in Denver |
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08-09-18 | Steelers v. Eagles OVER 33 | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #259 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7 ET - Classic case of long-term data giving us short-term value. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is known for trending under in preseason games. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson also has trended under in his two seasons as a head coach with Philadelphia. As a result of this, the total on this game has moved from a 35 to a 33 and is currently the lowest total on the board for Thursday's games. This has created great value here because the Steelers 4 preseason games last year actually averaged 32 points per game and NONE of them totaled less than 30 points. Indeed Pittsburgh stayed under in all 4 preseason games last year but, as you can see per the above, it wasn't by much! As for the Eagles, 3 of their 4 preseason games last year stayed under but only 1 game totaled less than 33 points! In fact, their two home games averaged a total of 52.5 points scored per game! The market movement here has led to great value on this one there is often more than meets the eye when looking at trending on totals. The key point here being that a closer look shows 33 will likely prove to be too low. The Eagles 4 preseason games last year had an average posted total of 39 points! The Steelers 4 preseason games last year had an average posted total of 38.5 points! No weather issues in Philly this evening either. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-26-17 | Jets v. Giants OVER 37 | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach Saturday NFLX 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Giants vs New York Jets @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play as most people are looking at the under in this match-up. After all, neither one of these teams have shown a whole lot so far this season. However, they call it exhibition season for a reason and the fact is that when the Jets and Giants meet in their home stadium in New York they've been apt to put on an 'exhibit' or a bit of a 'show' for the fans. In fact, the last 4 seasons this preseason match-up between these city rivals has average a total of 47.8 points per game! None of the 4 games have totaled less than 41 points. With that said, I like the value here being offered with this extremely low total. Trust me, I understand with the point totals these teams have had in their games in this preseason thus far it may seem "risky" but year in and year out this game in New York ends up being quite entertaining for the fans. I expect another "barnburner" in this one and once again, it gets to at least 41 points! The weather will be perfect with clear skies, light winds, and pleasant temperatures for this one in East Rutherford Saturday. 10* OVER the total in New York Giants |
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