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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored. |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
It's playoff time now in the NBA. That means the defensive intensity goes way up. This matchup should be a perfect example of that. |
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04-14-24 | Lakers +3.5 v. Pelicans | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31.  That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role.  The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty. |
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04-14-24 | Rockets -132 v. Clippers | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Rockets want to finish at .500. They need to win this game to accomplish that.
The Clippers are locked into their playoff spot, which is the No. 4 seed in the West. They have nothing to play for so I doubt Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden even see the floor for the Clippers. |
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04-12-24 | Bulls v. Wizards +2 | Top | 129-127 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards? (Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.)Â |
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04-11-24 | Bulls -9.5 v. Pistons | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, who have incentive to host the Hawks in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. |
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04-10-24 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | 124-108 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
These two teams just played last night at Phoenix. The Clippers built a huge lead and coasted to a 105-92 win. |
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04-09-24 | Wizards +16.5 v. Wolves | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are tied with the Nuggets for the top spot in the Western Conference. Minnesota plays in Denver against the Nuggets on Wednesday in a huge national TV (ESPN) matchup. |
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04-09-24 | Knicks v. Bulls +5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
I find value in this line considering the Knicks were minus 1 1/2 against the Bulls in Chicago last Friday. The Bulls won that game, 108-100, despite the Knicks shooting better from 3-point range and getting eight more free throw attempts than Chicago.
The Knicks haven't been at the top of their game. They are 2-4 in their last six games. I don't put a whole lot of stock into their 122-109 road win against the Bucks, who have lost four in a row including losses to the Wizards, Raptors and Grizzlies. |
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04-09-24 | Magic -3 v. Rockets | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Orlando is a bit banged-up, but this is a short number for the Magic to lay against a dead Rockets team. |
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04-09-24 | Heat -3.5 v. Hawks | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Driven by trying to gain an automatic playoff berth and revenge, Miami should cover this short road number. |
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04-09-24 | Pistons +16.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
It's a bonus if Cade Cunningham is available to play. He's questionable after missing the last three games due to knee soreness. |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Yes, these teams have firepower. But both teams have been playing excellent defense lately. Their defenses are underrated. The Pelicans are fourth in defensive field goal percentage, while the Suns rank seventh in the category. |
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04-06-24 | Hawks v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 110-142 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
By virtue of winning six of their last eight games, the Hawks have clinched a play-in berth. So they don't have huge incentive here. |
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04-05-24 | Kings +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I understand the Kings just blew a 21-point lead in suffering a 120-109 road loss to the Knicks Thursday night. |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Sparked by Joel Embiid's return after missing nine weeks due to knee surgery, the 76ers beat the Thunder, 109-105, at home on Tuesday. The 76ers are going to be careful with Embiid. This is going to be a much tougher task for the 76ers playing the Heat in Miami. It's Philadelphia's fourth straight different venue. |
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04-03-24 | Pistons +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
The Hawks are riding high after an important, 113-101, win against the Bulls two days ago. The Hawks are at the Mavericks on Thursday night in a challenging matchup. |
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04-02-24 | Lakers v. Raptors +12.5 | 128-111 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Yeah, I know. It's tough to get behind the Raptors, losers of 13 in a row.  But the Lakers carry a high fatigue rating, are in a letdown spot, the Raptors could get key players back and have a strong history against the Lakers.  Maybe it's because of LeBron James. But the Raptors get up for the Lakers. They've beaten them seven of the last nine times in Toronto. The Lakers barely beat the Raptors in the first meeting. LA won, 132-131, at home on Jan. 9.  There's a good possibility the Raptors get back both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for this game. They've been out for personal reasons.  This is the Lakers' fifth road game in eight days. They are 6-1 in their last seven games and conclude their road trip with a game tomorrow against the Wizards.Â
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04-01-24 | Nets v. Pacers OVER 227 | 111-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Tyrese Haliburton is back on his game. That makes the Pacers dangerous - and high-scoring.  Indiana is the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA at 122.7 points a game. The Pacers have reached that season average in seven of their last 10 games. The Nets are a mediocre defensive team and the Pacers have been idle since Friday. So I'm expecting a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nets only managed 104 points against the Lakers in their last game. But they scored 125 and 112 points in regulation, respectively, during their previous two games. They are going against an Indiana defense that ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring defense and last in defensive field goal percentage.Â
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03-31-24 | Bulls +8 v. Wolves | Top | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The timing is right for the Bulls to cover this road number - if not pull off a surprising upset. |
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03-31-24 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | 101-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers rank fifth defensively in the NBA. Denver ranks seventh defensively. Both teams rate in the bottom-seven in pace. The Nuggets are likely to be missing their second-leading scorer, Jamal Murray. He's been out the last four games with a sore knee. |
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03-30-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Hawks | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Hawks still may not have come down to Earth after beating the Celtics in overtime as a 16-point 'dog two days ago. Atlanta is fat and happy with four consecutive victories. |
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03-29-24 | Lakers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
The teams met just six days ago in LA. The Lakers won a wild, 150-145, shootout. But it wasn't so much the Lakers winning that irked the Pacers, it was how Los Angeles prevailed. |
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03-27-24 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago. |
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03-27-24 | Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks | 106-120 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago.  Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.Â
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 | 133-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Both the Pacers and Clippers played yesterday and both had bad defensive games. The Clippers lost, 121-107, to the 76ers at home while the Pacers suffered a tough, 150-145, defeat on the road to the Lakers.  Before Sunday, though, each team was playing solid defense.  Indiana had allowed just 105.5 points a game during their previous four games. The Pacers have held six of their last eight opponents to 111 points or fewer.  The Clippers have a top-12 defense. They had surrendered an average of 110.6 points per game during their previous five games before Sunday. Note this, too, about the Pacers: Indiana has gone Under a staggering 16 of the past 17 times (94 percent) when the total is below 240, which it is here.Â
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 133-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat.  Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.Â
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03-22-24 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 215.5 | 99-97 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This should be a loose game between two teams long eliminated from playoff contention. The injury-decimated Grizzlies have shown more offense and less defense lately. They fired up 49 3-pointers in their last game, a 137-116 road loss to the Warriors two days ago. That was the Grizzlies' fourth straight Over. The Grizzlies have taken on a new persona with rookie GG Jackson II and Santi Aldama firing up a heavy dose of 3-pointers.
Memphis ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 106 points a game. However, in their last three games, they've averaged 111 points in regulation while surrendering 117.5 points per game in regulation during their past four contests. San Antonio has permitted at least 112 points in 25 of its last 30 games. The Spurs are a bottom-five defensive team. |
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03-21-24 | Bulls v. Rockets OVER 219 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Bulls are averaging 115.7 points in their last four games. They've allowed at least 112 points in six of their last eight games. |
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03-20-24 | Jazz v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
These teams have met three times this season. The combined total of those games was 241, 263 and 254. So why is this total so low? |
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03-20-24 | Heat +2.5 v. Cavs | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, the Heat rank better giving up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. Cleveland gives up the sixth-fewest points. |
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03-19-24 | Pelicans -7 v. Nets | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are a play-on team. The Nets definitely are not. |
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03-18-24 | Cavs +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line. |
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03-17-24 | Raptors +13 v. Magic | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
This is the most points Orlando has been favored by all season. It's not justified.
These two teams just met two days ago in Toronto. The Magic won, 113-103, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Orlando shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 19 of 22 free throws. Toronto shot 47 percent from the floor and made only 13 of 20 free throws for 65 percent. The Raptors make 74.6 percent of their free throws on the season. Yet the point spread opened nearly double from Friday. The Raptors are in the grip of a season-worst six-game losing streak. But let's look at Toronto's past five games: The Raptors lost by seven points on the road to the Suns. They lost in overtime on the road to the Trail Blazers. They easily covered on the road against the sizzling Nuggets losing by only six points before suffering a letdown loss to the Pistons and then to the Magic. This is short revenge for the Raptors so they shouldn't lack effort and motivation. |
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03-17-24 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | 129-140 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Both teams are playing better defense than their season numbers show. The Suns are giving up an average of 107.8 points in their last five games if you rule out the 127 points they surrendered to the Celtics two games ago.  The Bucks have been playing much better defense since the coaching change to Doc Rivers, holding opponents to 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games.  This is what Rivers said about his coaching philosophy with the Bucks: "With our size, to me, if we're going to get into that mud wresting or a track meet, I want the mud. It's kind of fits what we should be." There are other factors that point to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes. Phoenix is concluding it's four-game, seven-day road trip here. This is a 10 a.m. west coast start time, too, for the Suns. So they could play slower than usual given their fatigue factor and unorthodox start time.  The Bucks may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's questionable with a hamstring injury. That's a nice bonus for the Under if he can't play. Milwaukee will get Khris Middleton back from an ankle sprain. He's missed the last 16 games due to ankle sprain. Middleton figures to be rusty, though, and it's going to be an adjustment period for the Bucks' offense to fit him back in.Â
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03-16-24 | Blazers +13.5 v. Pelicans | 107-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Portland has the second-worst record in the Western Conference. But the Trail Blazers are having a strong March by a point spread standard going 6-2-1 ATS. |
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03-15-24 | Hawks -133 v. Jazz | Top | 122-124 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Just a month into the season, the Jazz made a commitment to go with a youth movement. They haven't been very good because of that during the past 3 1/2 months. From once being at .500 the Jazz are now 28-37. Utah has lost 11 of its last 13 games. The Hawks are a playoff contender. They opened their West Coast trip with an upset loss to the lowly Trail Blazers. Atlanta can't afford to lose a second consecutive game to a bad team. The Hawks meet the Lakers, Clippers and Suns in their next three games. They are not going to be favored in any of those games.  The Hawks rolled past the Jazz, 124-97, when they hosted them on Feb. 27. Trae Young missed that game, too.  This game holds special meaning for the Hawks because it's their coach, Quin Snyder, first game back in Salt Lake City. Snyder coached the Jazz for eight seasons.  Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Spurs plus 10 1/2 hosting Nuggets  The defending world champion Nuggets have been the hottest team since the All-Star break. They've won 10 of their last 11 games to move into the top spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio has the worst record in the West at 14-52.  So why step in against Denver besides getting a boatload of points? Situation and the Spurs being below-the-radar from a point spread perspective. That's why.  Let's start with the spot.  Denver began its four-game road trip with an impressive beatdown of the Heat two days ago. Following this game, the Nuggets play the Mavericks Sunday on national television (ABC). Denver concludes its road swing with a Tuesday game against the Timberwolves. This is the Nuggets' least important game of their current trip. It's a rest stop. So I doubt the Nuggets are too motivated and excited for this matchup.  It takes two to make a successful handicap. The Spurs can hold up their end of the bargain. They have covered eight of their last 11 games, defeating the Warriors, Pacers and Thunder straight-up during this span. San Antonio should have upset the Kings straight-up, too, in Sacramento. The Spurs lost that game by two points after blowing a late lead. During these last 11 games, the Spurs were double-digit underdogs six times. They covered each of those six games.  Note this game is being played in Austin, Texas. That's a randomness factor and randomness is good when backing a large underdog. It's a chance for the Spurs base in Austin to see Victor Wembanyama first-hand. So there should be crowd motivation.Â
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03-14-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. Bulls | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I want the Clippers going for me as they hit the road following home losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves. No shame in losing to those two elite teams, although the Clippers blew an 18-point lead vs the Timberwolves. |
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03-13-24 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are a top-five defensive team and shouldn't lack motivation taking to the road after consecutive home losses to the Suns and Nets. Cleveland has injuries, but also depth. |
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03-13-24 | Bulls +4 v. Pacers | Top | 132-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday. |
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03-11-24 | Celtics v. Blazers OVER 217 | 121-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
The Celtics are going to get their points against a below average Portland defense that ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage. Boston ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 120.7 points per game. |
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03-11-24 | Warriors -4 v. Spurs | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer. |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
The term fat and happy hasn't been used to describe the Washington Wizards in a long time. But that's what the Wizards finally are after snapping a horrendous 16-game losing streak by beating the equally bad Hornets, 112-100, at home in their last game this past Friday.  Miami is anything but fat and happy. Try mad and motivated. The Heat return home off back-to-back road losses to the Mavericks and Thunder. The Heat had Saturday to rest after falling to the Thunder this past Friday. Miami won't play again until Wednesday so expect a full and focused effort against the Wizards.  "We'll get better from this," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said following the losses to Dallas and Oklahoma City.  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are getting new-found help in the rotation from rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. and recently acquired veteran Patty Mills.  The Wizards have lost their past eight road games, getting blown out in four of their past five away contests.Â
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03-10-24 | Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 225 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
It's easy to perceive the Pelicans as an offensive team with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Truth be told, though, the Pelicans are a defensive-minded club.  If you discount a 123-114 loss to the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, New Orleans has surrendered an average of only 100.9 points in its last 10 games. The Under has cashed in eight of the Pelicans' past 10 games.  It takes two to make an Under work. The Hawks should do their part. Atlanta is an entirely different team without injured superstar guard Trae Young.  The Hawks are averaging 119.9 points on the season while giving up 121.5 points. However, in the last seven games that Young has missed due to a finger injury, the Hawks are averaging 108.4 points and allowing just 102.8 points.Â
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03-08-24 | Bucks -135 v. Lakers | 122-123 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The Bucks are at least one tier above the Lakers and have strong motivation after suffering an embarrassing, 125-90, road loss to the Warriors two days ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo was especially vocal about the Bucks' bad loss. |
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03-07-24 | Spurs +11 v. Kings | 129-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Since Jan. 29, the Kings have been favored by 6 1/2 or more points five times. They are 0-5 ATS in those games with two outright losses. Now the Kings are laying double-digits in a flat spot after a huge home underdog victory against the Lakers last night. Sacramento rallied from an early 19-point deficit to beat the Lakers, 130-120. |
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03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors -4 | Top | 90-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
Regardless if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or doesn't, I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Bucks. |
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03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 228.5 | 139-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The Raptors are just starting to experience life without Scottie Barnes, who is their key player leading them in scoring and assists. Barnes suffered a broken hand two games ago against the Warriors. |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Doc Rivers may not be the greatest strategist, but the Bucks have been playing much better defense lately under him than they did for Adrian Griffin.  Milwaukee has given up an average of only 97.2 points during its last five games. That would rank first in the NBA by a good nine points if computed out for the entire season.  The Clippers rank third in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Bucks' defensive strength is its perimeter defense. Milwaukee is sixth in 3-point defense. The Clippers would be averaging only 103.2 points in their last five games if you discount their 140-point game against the defenseless Wizards.  The Clippers are a top-10 defensive team and are coming off an 89-88 defensive slugfest road win against the Timberwolves on Sunday. The Clippers forced 15 Minnesota turnovers and held the Timberwolves to 38.8 percent shooting from the floor. The Clippers rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace and that was with Russell Westbrook, who is out now. Doubtful the Clippers will want to play up-tempo against the Bucks especially without rest.Â
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03-03-24 | Pacers -6 v. Spurs | 105-117 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
It wasn't just the Pacers losing on the road to the Pelicans this past Friday. It was how they lost. New Orleans thoroughly embarrassed the Pacers beating them, 129-102. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton, an emerging superstar, was held scoreless. |
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03-03-24 | Warriors +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-140 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
I don't get this line. Yeah the Celtics have won 10 in a row and own the best home record in the NBA at 28-3. But the Warriors are much improved from earlier in the season and playing their best ball. |
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03-02-24 | Hawks +2 v. Nets | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Even without injured Trae Young, the Hawks are better than the Nets. So I want Atlanta in rapid revenge after the Nets embarrassed the Hawks, 124-97, at home this past Thursday. |
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03-01-24 | Warriors v. Raptors +3.5 | 120-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
First off, Toronto is more than capable of beating Golden State straight-up. The Raptors did just that in convincing style, 133-118, at Golden State on Jan. 7. |
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02-29-24 | Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 131-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The good news for the Lakers is they are off their best comeback win of the season. They came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to upset their in-city, division rival the Clippers, 116-112, last night. LeBron James led the rally scoring 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter. |
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02-28-24 | Pelicans v. Pacers UNDER 239.5 | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
It's easy to see why this total is as high as it is. The Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league and have a bottom-three defense. The Pelicans have an above average offense and several big-time scorers. |
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02-27-24 | Pelicans -3 v. Knicks | 115-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I like the Pelicans to cover against the Knicks even if Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum can't play. Both are listed as questionable. The Knicks, for sure, won't have two of their key players with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby both out.
The Knicks are only 3-6 in their last nine games. That record would be 2-7 if the Knicks didn't score a late basket to nip the last-place Pistons, 113-111, at home last night. The Knicks were lucky to win that game when the officials missed an obvious late-game foul that wasn't called. The Pelicans come to New York in a bad mood after losing, 114-106, to the Bulls at home two days ago blowing a 12-point late third quarter lead. New Orleans is just as good on the road as it is at home with identical 17-12 records. New Orleans has won five of its last six away games. |
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02-26-24 | Heat v. Kings UNDER 226 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Below the radar, the Heat have been playing outstanding defense. They've allowed an average of only 101.7 points in their last nine games. The Under has cashed in nine of Miami's last 10 games. |
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02-25-24 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Yes, the Hawks are a high-scoring bad defensive team. So, why go Under? Because the dynamics are not usual for the Hawks in this matchup. |
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02-25-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +1 | Top | 119-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets. |
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02-24-24 | Magic v. Pistons +8 | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Orlando is one of the more improved teams this season. The Magic came out of All-Star break with an impressive, 116-109, road win against the Cavaliers two days ago. |
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02-23-24 | Wizards +16 v. Thunder | 106-147 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Emerging Oklahoma City wanted to make a statement coming out of the All-Star break. Statement made as the Thunder impressively buried the Clippers, 129-107, at home Thursday night. Now the Thunder face a far less daunting foe - the Wizards. It's a flat spot for the Thunder. So I'm going to hold my nose and back the Wizards getting this many points.  Washington has lost nine in a row, including suffering a 130-110 road loss to Denver last night. The Wizards, though, have a winning point spread mark in their last 11 games. They hosted the Thunder on Jan. 8 and lost by eight points, 136-128.Â
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
These are two excellent defensive teams, who both rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace. |
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02-22-24 | Pistons +11.5 v. Pacers | 115-129 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
There's a certain randomness factor when NBA teams haven't played in eight days like these two teams. Randomness is good when backing an underdog in this high of a point range. |
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02-15-24 | Warriors -125 v. Jazz | Top | 140-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
I don't find it too much to ask the Warriors to beat the reeling Jazz in Utah for the second time in four days. Golden State hammered Utah, 129-107, this past Monday. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
No need to overthink. The Clippers are 35-17, one of the three best teams in the Western Conference along with the Timberwolves and Thunder. The Clippers' goal is to finish with the best record in the NBA. That's a lofty goal, but attainable for a team this good.
Golden State is 26-25. The Warriors are off an emotional road victory against the Jazz this past Monday. They play at Utah again on Thursday to close out the first half of their season. It's a game that was rescheduled following the untimely death of Warriors assistant coach Dejan Milojevic from a heart attack. So returning home for this one game against the Clippers sandwiched in between trips to Utah is an usual and tough spot for the Warriors. Their concentration level may be hindered. There's also a physical fatigue to go with the mental stress as this marks the Warriors' fifth game in eight days. Unlike the Warriors, the Clippers won't play again until after the All-Star break. Also unlike the Warriors, the Clippers are off a huge, disappointing loss. They were embarrassed at home by the Timberwolves, 121-100, this past Monday. That defeat dropped the Clippers 1 1/2 games behind the Timberwolves for best record in the Western Conference. Even with that loss to Minnesota, the Clippers still are 10-3 in their past 13 games. They won't lack motivation for this matchup and should be fully focused and engaged. The Clippers have both a top-10 offense and defense. They rank first in 3-point field goal percentage. The Warriors are below average defensively ranking 19th. |
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02-14-24 | Wizards v. Pelicans OVER 236 | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm going to use the Zig-Zag method on this total. Both the Wizards and Pelicans are off strong defensive performances where their offenses were held in check. |
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02-13-24 | Wolves v. Blazers +8.5 | Top | 121-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is enough line value for me to take the Trail Blazers given the probable return of Anfernee Simons and the favorable spot Portland is in. |
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02-12-24 | Bulls +4 v. Hawks | Top | 136-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
This is an important game for playoff seeding in the East. The Bulls rank ninth while the Hawks are 10th, one game behind Chicago. The Bulls are the superior defensive team and have a winning point spread mark. They are 7-4 ATS in their past 11 games. |
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02-10-24 | Rockets +5 v. Hawks | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Both teams are playing without rest. But here's what you have to know. The Hawks have the worst point spread record in the NBA at 16-36 (31 percent). They are 5-16 ATS when favored by more than 1 1/2 points.  The Hawks just beat a reeling 76ers squad that is trying to learn life without Joel Embiid. Atlanta will be missing center Clint Capela. Onyeka Okongwu has played well in Capela's place, but logged 34 minutes against the 76ers last night.  Houston is 0-3 in its current four-game road swing that ends here. The Rockets have come close in their last two games losing to the Pacers by three points this past Tuesday and by three points to the Raptors last night cutting a 23-point deficit to one point with 23 seconds left.  The Rockets nearly won despite their two leading scorers, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, shooting a combined 6-for-18 (25 percent) from the floor. Sengun shoots 54.1 percent from the field.Â
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02-09-24 | Pelicans -115 v. Lakers | Top | 122-139 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Pelicans are playing well, riding a four-game win streak. They rested in Los Angeles on Thursday after upsetting the Clippers on Wednesday. The Lakers, meanwhile, played hard but not smart in losing to the Nuggets, 114-106, on Thursday night. |
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02-09-24 | Hornets +14.5 v. Bucks | 84-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
As bad as the Hornets are, the Bucks are in no position to lay this many points to them. Milwaukee is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The Bucks carry a high fatigue rating, have key injuries and Doc Rivers has been a near-disaster so far as the Bucks' coach. |
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02-08-24 | Pistons v. Blazers -5.5 | 128-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
The Pistons are 3-20 on the road this season. Their latest road victory came last night in a 133-120 upset of the Kings. The Pistons achieved this unlikely victory without injured Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic leaving them with only nine players. |
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02-08-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Lakers have picked up their pace winning eight of their last 12 games. This includes three straight victories to close out a six-game road trip. |
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02-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
The Pelicans are in prime position to ambush the Clippers. |
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02-07-24 | Spurs +8 v. Heat | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Miami hasn't gotten going this season, losing eight of its last 11 games. But the Heat did win a satisfying game beating in-state rival Orlando, 121-95, last night. |
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02-06-24 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | 106-114 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Milwaukee is concluding its five-game road trip here. The Bucks are 1-3 on their road swing. This is a good time to buy low on the Bucks coming off a 123-108 Sunday loss to the Jazz. |
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02-05-24 | Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans | 100-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Toronto is 2-11 in its last 13 games, 1-7 in its last eight games and playing its fifth straight road game. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets UNDER 237.5 | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Both the Warriors and Nets are coming off high-scoring games. The Warriors lost 141-134 in overtime to the Hawks this past Saturday. Brooklyn rolled past the 76ers, 136-121, also this past Saturday. |
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02-04-24 | Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At first glance this opening line might look strange with the 33-16 Bucks around a pick'em against the 24-26 Jazz. But the spot sets up extremely well for Utah. So I'm on the Jazz. The Bucks came back to beat Dallas on the road Saturday night. Milwaukee trailed by 25 points at one stage. The Bucks' three best players all logged heavy minutes in the victory. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton each played more than 38 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo logged more than 40 minutes. It wouldn't be shocking if any of those three were rested today. I'm getting down now on the Jazz because the line would change if Antetokounmpo or Lillard sat out. Note, too, the Bucks are going into Utah's high altitude.  Milwaukee also is in transition with new coach Doc Rivers. Beating Dallas was the Bucks' first win under Rivers this season.  The Jazz are 15-7 at home - and rested. They last played this past Thursday. The Jazz lost to the 76ers, 127-124, in their last game. Philadelphia didn't have injured Joel Embiid. However, the Jazz had just returned from a six-game road trip and been idle for only one day before hosting the 76ers. Now they are rested and ready to go with a strong home court.Â
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02-04-24 | Magic v. Pistons +7 | 111-99 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
I know it's difficult to get behind the Pistons. But they are in an excellent situational spot here. |
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02-02-24 | Magic +8 v. Wolves | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get. |
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02-01-24 | 76ers +4.5 v. Jazz | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Let's get the bad out of the way first. No Joel Embiid and the 76ers are concluding a five-game road trip here. They have lost the first four games of their road swing. But things aren't good on the Utah side either. The Jazz are 2-5 in their past seven games with the only victories during this time frame coming against the Wizards and Hornets. Those two bottom feeders have a combined record of 19-74.  The Jazz also are in a tough situational spot. This is their first home contest since Jan. 18. The Jazz just concluded six consecutive road games with losses to the Nets and Knicks this past Monday and Tuesday nights.  Embiid may be out for a while. The 76ers need to prove they can win without him. They shouldn't lack motivation to salvage one game from their road trip. They also have revenge incentive for a 120-109 home loss to the Jazz on Jan. 6 when Embiid also was out.  There's a good chance the 76ers get back underrated Tyrese Maxey, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, and versatile Nicolas Batum.
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01-31-24 | Pelicans -135 v. Rockets | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
The Rockets enter this matchup a little fat and happy having buried the Lakers at home two days ago. Houston's three previous games were against the Nets, Hornets and Trail Blazers.
Let's contrast this with the Pelicans. New Orleans is in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, came on the road to the Celtics and Bucks and at home to the Thunder, who have the best point spread mark in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength. They own a big edge in this matchup from beyond the arc ranking third in the league in 3-point accuracy compared to the Rockets, who rate 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. |
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01-31-24 | Mavs +14 v. Wolves | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
I'm more interested in the Mavericks when they are underdogs - and they certainly are underdogs in this matchup judging by the lopsided point spread. It's way too many points for the Timberwolves to be laying. Dallas has ended its mini-slump winning two of its past three games, including nipping the Magic, 131-129, at home two days ago. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been picking up the slack for Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 36 points against Orlando.  The Mavericks are 12-9 on the road. They have covered seven of the last 11 times when getting points. Dallas also defeated the Timberwolves, 115-108, in the last meeting on Jan. 7 at home.  The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying road win against the Thunder, in which Minnesota coach Chris Finch challenged his defense, but are just 3-3 in their last six games.  It's not an ideal situational spot either for the Timberwolves being their first home game in nine days following four consecutive road games. Minnesota is 0-2 in its last two home contests losing to the Hornets and Thunder.Â
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01-30-24 | Jazz +4 v. Knicks | 103-118 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
I tried to step in against the Knicks with the Hornets on Monday. It was a mistake. The Hornets are an immature, gutless team. The Jazz aren't. They are well-coached, have a deep rotation and are below-the-radar with a 10-5 record this month. |
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01-29-24 | Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 225.5 | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
NBA teams pick up their defensive intensity during the playoffs. There are some regular-season games, though, where that playoff defensive intensity surfaces. This should be one of those matchups.
Minnesota and Oklahoma City are tied for first in the Northwest Division. Both have been pointing to this showdown. Each team got caught looking ahead, too. The Timberwolves lost, 113-112, to the Spurs this past Saturday while the Thunder were upset by the Pistons, 120-104, on Sunday. Timberwolves coach Chris Finch ripped his team's defensive performance following the loss to the Spurs calling it disgusting and that his team was immature. I expect the Timberwolves to play far better on defense, being stung by their coaches' criticism. They are, after all, the No. 1 defensive team in the league holding opponents to an average of 107.6 points a game. The Timberwolves also rank first in defensive rebounding and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma City ranks No. 1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder, though, are averaging only 106 points during their last four games if you don't count their 140-114 win against the Spurs this past Wednesday. There were just 199 points scored during the team's last meeting when Oklahoma City won, 102-97, at Minneapolis nine days ago. |
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01-29-24 | Knicks v. Hornets +9 | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season. |
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01-28-24 | Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games. |
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01-27-24 | 76ers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago. |
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01-26-24 | Magic -5 v. Grizzlies | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 122-134 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
I understand Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring and is coming off a 70-point game this past Monday in Philadelphia's, 133-123, home win against the Spurs. |
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01-24-24 | Hawks v. Warriors -7 | Top | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since. |
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01-24-24 | Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 232.5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
After a pair of games against the Bucks, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Pistons host the Hornets. Charlotte just upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog two days ago despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points. |
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01-23-24 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | 124-153 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Two healthy, high-scoring teams playing on extra rest. That's what we have in this matchup. Those factors should spell lots of points and the total going Over. |
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01-22-24 | Hawks v. Kings -8 | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS. |
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01-22-24 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage. |
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01-21-24 | Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 | 110-134 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers. |
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01-20-24 | Cavs -135 v. Hawks | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game.  The Hawks have held their last two opponents, the Magic to 104 points, and Spurs to 99 points. Atlanta, though, is averaging only 105.5 points in its last four games. |
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01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 223 | 124-109 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. |
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