For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Lost in the glare of the Packers' 48-32 smashing upset victory of the Cowboys last Sunday was that Green Bay's defense was on the field for 89 plays.
Now the Packers go back on the road for the fourth time in the last five weeks - and on a short week with this being a Saturday game - to face a rested and healthy 49ers offense that led the league in net yards per passing play, rushing touchdowns and had the best red-zone conversion rate. The 49ers produced the second-most yards in the league and third-most points. I don't like Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and I don't trust Green Bay's defense. The Packers gave up 30 points, 26 first downs and nearly 400 yards of offense to Carolina just four games ago. It's scary to think how many points Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk can put up against the Packers defense, which was 28th in stopping the run and hasn't been innovative all season. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable, too, with an ankle injury. It's easy to overrate the Packers. After all, they just were seen burying the Cowboys in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score while the 49ers haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks. The 49ers are an elite, "A'' team. The Packers are two levels behind them and in a difficult situational spot. Green Bay has gone as far as it can go. Congrats to the Packers on a nice season, but it ends here and it ends in a big way. |
|||||||
01-15-24 | Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -120 | 154 h 59 m | Show |
The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers. The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. |
|||||||
01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 48-32 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling. |
|||||||
01-07-24 | Eagles v. Giants +5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 136 h 9 m | Show |
The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed. |
|||||||
12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
The Raiders buried the Chargers, 63-21, at home two weeks ago, drawing an opponent that picked that game to quit on their coach. Then last week the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns to upset the Chiefs. That game might have been the Raiders' Super Bowl considering how much they celebrated and how emotional it was for interim coach Antonio Pierce.Â
Pierce is an upgrade on the egregious Josh McDaniels, but he's not in the class of the Colts' Shane Steichen. The oddsmaker has priced this matchup like these two teams are even considering Indy's home-field advantage and an early start time for the Raiders. Yes, those are edges for the Colts. But the Colts also are much better than the Raiders. Thanks to the innovative Steichen, the Colts rank in the top-10 in scoring. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. Jonathan Taylor is back and primed for a big game. Michael Pittman is expected to play, too, after being out last week with a concussion. That gives Gardner Minshew his two best weapons. The Raiders rank 25th in scoring and 29th in total yards. Rookie Aidan O'Connell is in the argument for worst starting quarterback. Josh Jacobs has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable. |
|||||||
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -6 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly. |
|||||||
12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season. Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career. Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions. Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle. |
|||||||
12-29-23 | Memphis +11 v. Iowa State | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.  The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season.  The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.Â
|
|||||||
12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here. |
|||||||
12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit. Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion. Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots. So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten. Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season? I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS. The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10. Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10. The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting. Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded. |
|||||||
12-25-23 | Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's. |
|||||||
12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
I've been looking to fade the Saints and this is the right spot. Both teams are 7-7, but the Rams are much the superior team. LA doesn't hold a huge home field advantage compared to other team's. However, the visiting team playing on Thursday is at a big disadvantage. So I believe this point spread is well short.
The Saints have beaten the Giants and Panthers at home during the last two weeks. Typical because New Orleans has played the easiest schedule. The Rams have drawn one of the more difficult schedules going against the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who they lost in overtime on the road two weeks ago. Since Matthew Stafford returned from his finger injury, the Rams have gone 4-1 SU and ATS. Stafford has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last four games. Kyren Williams has emerged as one of the top running backs in the league averaging 124.3 rushing yards the last four games. Cooper Kupp has come alive, too, catching 16 passes for 226 yards during the last two weeks. The Rams are averaging 33 points during the last four weeks. The Saints' defense is down from past seasons and their offense is mediocre at best. |
|||||||
12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do. |
|||||||
12-14-23 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. |
|||||||
12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 20 m | Show |
This game sets up very badly for the Jaguars. Not only is warm-weather Jacksonville traveling into cold and bad weather conditions on a short week, but doing it without their first and second string offensive left tackles and most consistent wide receiver, Christian Kirk.  The Jaguars are facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has outscored opponents, 113-61, at home in going 5-1.  If you discount a 28-3 loss to the Ravens, the Browns are giving up an average of 6.6 points in their five other home contests.  Joe Flacco is a huge upgrade on P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
|
|||||||
12-03-23 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game. |
|||||||
12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines. |
|||||||
11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -9 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas. |
|||||||
11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week. |
|||||||
11-24-23 | Air Force v. Boise State -6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time. The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos. Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead. The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites. |
|||||||
11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup. |
|||||||
11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
The Chiefs beat the Eagles at a neutral site in the Super Bowl and they'll beat them at home. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last dozen home games.
Kansas City is the healthier team and has the better defense. It's remarkable how good the Chiefs' defense has gotten. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 15.9 points per game, ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed and is fifth in pass defense. The Eagles' defense can't match that given their vulnerable secondary. Philadelphia entered this week allowing 19 TD passes, third-worst in the league, while ranking 28th in pass defense. Jalen Hurts might be the second-best QB in football. But Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Hurts also will be missing his third-best receiver, injured tight end Dallas Goedert. Both teams were idle last week. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 21-3 in that role. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Chargers -3 v. Packers | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 42 m | Show |
As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. |
|||||||
11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 40 m | Show |
The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory. |
|||||||
11-11-23 | Texas -10.5 v. TCU | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. |
|||||||
11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH -17.5 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo. |
|||||||
11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night. |
|||||||
11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama -3 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show |
Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot. |
|||||||
11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. |
|||||||
10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start. |
|||||||
10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that. |
|||||||
10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. |
|||||||
10-23-23 | 49ers -6.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 117 h 44 m | Show |
The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game. |
|||||||
10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 36 m | Show |
This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. |
|||||||
10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
You have to go back to Bill Belichick's first year as head coach of the Patriots in 2000 to find New England this bad.   The Patriots have hit rock bottom losing by a combined, 72-3, to the Cowboys and Saints during the last two weeks.  So I'm buying as low as possible on the Patriots as they drop way down in class to face the Raiders.  Las Vegas has yet to break 18 points in a game. The Raiders are on a short week in a letdown spot after beating the Packers at home on Monday night.  Belichick has lost a lot of his coaching luster during the past couple of seasons. But he's still miles ahead of Josh McDaniels when it comes to coaching. McDaniels seems to make mistakes in crucial on-the-field decisions every game.  The Patriots are going to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott while Mac Jones mixes in a few short passes. This is the right game plan to attack a Raiders defense that guards against the long ball and heavily relies on Maxx Crosby to create havoc.  Belichick is familiar with Jimmy Garoppolo having coached him when Garoppolo was in New England. Belichick can exploit Garoppolo's many weaknesses. Garoppolo leads in the NFL in interceptions with seven despite missing a game. The Raiders rank last in rushing, 30th in scoring and 29th in total yards.
|
|||||||
10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games. |
|||||||
10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Pure and simple, wrong team favored. And that's figuring Davante Adams is going to play for the Raiders against his former team.
The Raiders won't even have much of a home field advantage as the Packers travel well. There will be plenty of cheeseheads at Allegiant Stadium. Jordan Love should have his major weapons back. Green Bay also is expected to have its entire starting offensive line on the field with the exception of left tackle David Bakhtiari. Love is set to shine facing a Raiders defense that gives up a 108.2 passer rating and has multiple injuries in their secondary. Las Vegas has some star power with Adams, Josh Jacobs and Maxx Crosby, a top-five pass rusher. But the Raiders' supplemental talent is well below par and they are poorly coached. Some consider Jimmy Garoppolo to be an average NFL quarterback. I find him to be below average. Despite missing last week while in concussion protocol, Garoppolo has thrown six interceptions in three games. The Raiders have lost three in a row. They entered this week with an NFL-worst minus-nine turnover ratio, while also ranking among the worst on third down and in the red zone on both sides of the ball. The Packers are no longer Super Bowl contenders without Aaron Rodgers. But they are a seven-to-nine win team, which puts them a level higher than the Raiders. |
|||||||
10-08-23 | Bengals -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.
|
|||||||
10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty -19 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game. |
|||||||
10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. |
|||||||
10-01-23 | Broncos -3 v. Bears | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 122 h 26 m | Show |
How wretched are the Bears? The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them. And Denver is the right side. Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. |
|||||||
09-25-23 | Eagles -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia. The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here. Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations. The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70. |
|||||||
09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 86 h 45 m | Show |
Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win. The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL. I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses. Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff. Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers. This one isn't going to be close. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -9.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 124 h 40 m | Show |
The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. |
|||||||
09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010. It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play. Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect. The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season. Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley. |
|||||||
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here. Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board. The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games. Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up. I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's. Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances. Getting points is just a bonus. |
|||||||
09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line. Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list. Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes. The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers. It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits. Player Prop: David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing. The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes. Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams. The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout. Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number. |
|||||||
09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl. This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day. Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season. Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game. |
|||||||
09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up. So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season. South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense. The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. |
|||||||
09-01-23 | Miami-OH +18 v. Miami-FL | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 266 h 14 m | Show |
I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game. The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year. |
|||||||
08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era. Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent. Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season. Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent. So look for a close game here. |
|||||||
08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt -17 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 55 m | Show |
Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home. The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense. After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click. Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board. |
|||||||
01-29-23 | Bengals +1 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -125 | 138 h 46 m | Show |
The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain. It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC. Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals. Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury. Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months. Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games. |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 21 m | Show |
Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here. The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week. The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball. Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games. Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage. I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets. This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs. Player Props Travis Etienne Over 19 1/2 receiving yards The Chiefs have surrendered an average of 29 receiving yards to running backs. That's the worst in the league. Travis Etienne caught three passes for 28 yards when the teams met back in Week 10. The Chiefs ranked No. 2 in sacks with 55. So Trevor Lawrence should be dumping the ball off to Etienne either on a screen pass or short pass often to combat Kansas City's pass rush.  Kadarius Toney Over 30 1/2 receiving yards Kadarius Toney is in line to being a bigger part of the Chiefs' offense with Mecole Hardman ruled out against the Jaguars because of a pelvic injury. Patrick Mahomes is well aware of Toney's talents. Just two games ago, Toney had 71 receiving yards. The weakest part of Jacksonville's defense is their pass defense. It ranks 28th. |
|||||||
01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -7 | Top | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 123 h 48 m | Show |
Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher. The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games. Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games. The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games. |
|||||||
01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -10.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 32 m | Show |
It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills. Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed. The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here. Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower. The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin. The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout. |
|||||||
01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 118 h 56 m | Show |
Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time. TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs? Yes, they are. Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs. The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage. Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game. The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here. |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Patriots v. Bills -7 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 46 m | Show |
The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. |
|||||||
12-30-22 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Ohio | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference. Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player. Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. |
|||||||
12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart.  East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. |
|||||||
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 5 m | Show |
No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense. The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points. The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points. Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either. |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Air Force +4 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation. Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. |
|||||||
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
The Bills are in a perfect spot to exact their revenge for an oddball, 21-19, road loss to the Dolphins back in Week 3. Buffalo lost to Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by 285 yards. That game was played in brutally humid South Florida conditions back in September. This matchup is just the opposite with a winter storm watch issued. Cold, possibly heavy snow and gusting winds are in the forecast. The warm-weather Dolphins with their warm-weather QB, Tua Tagovailoa, are not equipped for this type of weather element. The Dolphins rely on precision passing timing with Tagovailoa getting the ball out fast to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has never even played in temperatures below 37 degrees. The Dolphins have been exposed as big-game frauds the past two weeks by the 49ers and Chargers. They managed just a combined 521 total yards of offense in those games. The Chargers were minus several of their best defenders, including safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa. MIami is giving 31.4 points on the road this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six away matchups. Josh Allen is much more comfortable in cold weather games. I expect the Bills to score against a mediocre Miami defense and the Dolphins' offense unable to counterattack. |
|||||||
12-16-22 | Troy +1.5 v. UTSA | Top | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA. The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla. Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt. The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games. The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Chargers | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
The Dolphins are 8-1 SU, 6-3 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game. The one loss came this past Sunday at San Francisco when Miami ran into the top defense in the league. The Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. They are likely to face the Dolphins' record-setting wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. James is in the discussion for best safety in the league. Miami had produced 30 or more points in four straight games prior to the 49ers. The Chargers aren't going to be able to slow down Miami. Justin Herbert has too many injuries around him to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. LA is averaging 21.4 points in its last seven games. LA has not defeated an above .500 team all season. The step up is too high for the Chargers. |
|||||||
12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
Josh Jacobs, Davonte Adams and Maxx Crosby have lifted the Raiders back into playoff contention leading Las Vegas to three straight victories. The Raiders got hot last season to sneak into the playoffs and they're showing signs of repeating that this season. The Rams, on the other hand, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa. Sean McVay thinks so little of backup quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, who has a neck injury, that the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers. The Browns gave up on Mayfield and now the Panthers had their fill of Mayfield. Whoever is behind center for the Rams has to deal with backups - some fourth and fifth-stringers - at just about every offensive position. The Rams have had to use a different offensive line in every game because of multiple injuries. LA has no ground game and is minus its two best wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The Raiders are playing much better defense, limiting opposing running backs to 3.07 yards during the last three weeks, which is the third-lowest mark during this span. Las Vegas also has 11 sacks during its last three games. Jacobs is the hottest runner in the NFL. He's averaging 179 yards rushing in his last four games. The Rams' defense is far less fierce up front minus Aaron Donald, who is out, along with run-stuffing nose guard A'Shawn Robinson. So Jacobs is in line for another huge performance. Adams is averaging 137.6 receiving yards in his last three games. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the Rams' best player in their secondary and he's been playing poorly. The Rams put forth a great effort this past Sunday against the Seahawks, a team the Raiders beat. However, the Rams came up short, 27-23, against Seattle. I doubt the Rams produce another ''A'' game. The Raiders are likely to have better, crowd support than the home Rams. |
|||||||
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -3 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Home field: Check mark to Buccaneers. It's an off-surface, too, for the visiting Saints. They are used to turf not grass. Quarterback: Check mark to Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. Defense: Check mark to the Buccaneers' fifth-ranked defense compared to the Saints' 21st ranked defense. These are three strong handicapping factors as to why I believe the Buccaneers will beat the Saints by more than a field goal. The Saints are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four true road games. They haven't won on a grass field all season, including last week when they were shut out by the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Not only is Brady much superior to turnover-prone Dalton, but he has better receiving weapons with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is coming off his best game of the year since suffering a knee injury last December. The Saints could be down two members of their secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven games due to an abdominal injury and safety P.J. Williams suffering a knee injury last week. Brady entered this Week 13 leading the NFC in passing yards. He's been picked off just once since opening week. Dalton has been intercepted six times in his last four games. Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bucs rank fifth in pass defense and ninth in total defense. The Saints rank 21st in scoring defense. They have the fewest takeaways in the league with just six. |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Packers -4 v. Bears | Top | 28-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
Much has been made about the Packers' steep descent this season. But look at the Bears. They are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with five consecutive losses. Injuries and trades have made their defense a laughing stock. Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears, beating them 24 of 29 times. Rodgers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games versus Chicago. Rodgers is banged-up. But the Packers finally have their bye next week. So I expect Rodgers to be going all out. He'll be looking at a decimated Chicago secondary that is missing three starters, including both safeties. Chicago has the fewest sacks in the NFC with 16. Matt LaFleur does one thing consistently right - and that's beat the Bears. He's the only Green Bay coach to win his first seven regular-season games against Chicago. Justin Fields is expected to start, but he'll be missing his No. 1 wide receiver with Darrell Mooney done for the season with an ankle injury. Fields is a tremendous runner, but the Bears likely will be cautious with him. Fields has an AC-joint shoulder sprain and the Bears have their bye next week. The Packers also may have finally found a special teams weapon as Keisean Nixon had two 50-plus yard returns against the Eagles last week. |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 59 m | Show |
The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him. The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games. Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games. The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game. Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury. Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now. The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division. The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bucs -3 v. Browns | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -118 | 62 h 18 m | Show |
The Bucs enter this matchup at their most healthy and fresh off a bye. The Browns were hoping to hang on until Deshaun Watson could take over. But that didn't happen. Cleveland is 3-7 with six losses in its last seven games. Morale is bad with the Browns. So is their defense, which ranks tied for 31st giving up 26.9 points a game. Tom Brady has the passing attack to take advantage along with an upgraded ground attack thanks to more usage from outside threat Rachaad White, who is now properly factored into Tampa Bay's offense. Tampa Bay has a top-six defense and its offense that has the second-fewest turnovers. Cleveland has only eight takeaways, which ranks 29th. The Buccaneers held Seattle's star rookie running back Kenneth Walker to 17 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago in their last game. Walker had averaged 102 yards rushing during his past five games. This doesn't bode well for Nick Chubb, who the Browns heavily rely upon. The Buccaneers are going to be tough to run against with the Browns losing emerging center Ethan Pocic to a knee injury. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season. The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series.  Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Bills -9.5 v. Lions | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 17 m | Show |
Josh Allen and Co. won't have an easier defense to go against all season than Detroit. The Lions give up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also are likely to be minus their best defensive backfield player in cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is in concussion protocol. The Bills just played at Ford Field this past Sunday when their game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit. A fast track makes the Bills' up-tempo offense even more potent. The Lions have won three in a row beating the Giants, Bears and Packers. The Bills are a huge step up for them. Buffalo is overdue to play better after not producing an "A'' level game during the last four weeks since beating the Chiefs. Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when Jim Caldwell was its coach. Don't look for the Lions to end that streak here. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas. The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas. Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 17 m | Show |
The Titans have been winning ugly all season. It catches up to them here traveling on a short week with multiple defensive injuries facing a rejuvenated Packers team that saved their season by coming from two touchdowns behind in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys this past Sunday. This is a huge game for Green Bay. The Packers can't take a loss here with their next game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Titans can be excused if they don't match the Packers' intensity. The Titans have a two-game lead in the very weak AFC South Division. The timing of this road Thursday game is very bad for Tennessee. The Titans are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now especially on defense. They were outplayed but managed to beat the bumbling Broncos this past Sunday despite missing five defensive starters, including star tackle Jeffery Simmons and big-play linebacker Bud Dupree. The Titans then suffered three more defensive injuries against Denver. The Packers blew out the Titans, 40-14, at home two seasons ago when the teams last met. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Vikings v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
The Bills don't need Josh Allen to beat the Vikings, who are a bogus 7-1. Only one of Minnesota's wins has been against a winning team with six of its victories occurring in one-score games. The Vikings have a losing ATS mark. The one time the Vikings had a step-up game, they lost 24-7 to the Eagles. Already the Vikings have built up an insurmountable five-game lead in the loss column in their NFC North Division. I doubt the Vikings get as motivated for this game as the Bills will at home off a terrible loss to the Jets. I want Buffalo in this spot and I'm fine with Case Keenum, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and is surrounded by weapons in the Bills' high octane offensive attack. Keenum is experienced and proficient in Buffalo's spread type offense. I don't see the Bills, with their aggressive nature, dialing things back. Not only is the spot bad for the Vikings catching the Bills off a division loss, but the setting isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings are a dome team traveling into Buffalo in mid-November with the forecast calling for possible snow showers and wind in the 10-20 mph range. |
|||||||
11-12-22 | TCU +7.5 v. Texas | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Texas Christian is ranked fourth in the country in the latest The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Texas is ranked 18th. Yet the Longhorns are solid favorites. Usually it's the oddsmaker who has the correct power rankings, not the Top 25 voters. This time, though, it's the Top 25 poll that is accurate about these teams. TCU is the better team. The Horned Frogs are 9-0, including 6-0 in the Big 12. They just defeated Texas Tech by 10 points. Texas is 6-3 with two of its defeats coming to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, two teams that TCU defeated. Texas lacks TCU's consistency and polish. The Horned Frogs have already beaten four ranked opponents. Only Tennessee has knocked off more with five. The Horned Frogs have dominated the Longhorns, too, going 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS against them since becoming a Big 12 member 10 years ago. They are 4-1 versus the Longhorns in Austin. |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 15-25 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the NFC. So it's a no-brainer for me to lay less than a field goal against them especially when the Panthers are going to start P.J. Walker at quarterback. Walker's 317-yard passing performance against the Falcons two weeks ago was an outlier. Walker's ability is far closer to the 3-of-10 passing for nine yards and two interceptions he had against the Bengals last Sunday. The Falcons rank last in pass defense. Walker won't be able to exploit that. I'm not a fan of Baker Mayfield. But at least he's a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, albeit a lower class one. Walker isn't. Even a fresh Sam Darnold would be a better choice than Walker in attacking such a vulnerable secondary. The Falcons aren't very good either. But they do run the ball well with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Marcus Mariota, who is more of a rushing threat than a passer. The Bengals gashed the Panthers on the ground for 241 yards, averaging 6.2 yards on 39 runs. If you can't stop the run, you're going to have trouble with Atlanta. Not only did the Panthers trade their best offensive chip, Christian McCaffrey, but they have injuries to three of their key defenders: pass rushing star Brian Burns, underrated lineman Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn. I'm expecting Burns and Brown to play - it's a bonus if they don't - but the Panthers still are going to have problems stopping the Falcons' ground game. Carolina has surrendered 79 points during the last two weeks. The fallout in Carolina from its one-sided loss to Cincinnati is more coaching turnover. Interim coach Steve Wilks fired two defensive coaches, Paul Pasqualoni and Evan Cooper. The Panthers are a rudderless team right now. They don't have the quarterbacking, nor run defense, to beat the Falcons even at home on a Thursday night. |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
The buy sign is on for the Monday night home underdog Saints following their best game of the season, a 24-0 home win against the Raiders last Sunday. The Saints held the sometimes potent Raiders to 183 yards of offense. A key for the Saints is an improved ground attack spearheaded by Alvin Kamara that is averaging 171 yards rushing in their last four games. The Ravens have been favored in three of their last four games and failed to cover each of those times. Baltimore shored up its defense trading for Roquan Smith. However, the Ravens are down their two best receivers with tight end Mark Andrews and wideout Rashod Bateman both out. It' not likely Gus Edwards is going to play either. |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Panthers v. Bengals -7 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 32 m | Show |
This is a buy low opportunity on the Bengals, who looked terrible this past Monday night scoring just 13 points against the Browns and losing by 19 points. The Bengals don't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers don't have Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. They also don't have a lot of incentive either with a 2-6 record and in rebuild mode. Cincinnati buried the Falcons, 35-17, two weeks ago. The Panthers lost to the Falcons this past Sunday ending any crazy dream for them of competing in their bogus NFC South Division. Joe Burrow doesn't need Chase to bury the Panthers. Burrow has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, leads the NFL in passing yards and has 17 TD passes. He still has three high quality receiving targets in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst. Carolina's pop gun attack operated by P.J. Walker isn't going to be able to keep up. The Bengals want to redeem themselves after Monday's embarrassment. This is a kill spot for them at home. The line is reasonable enough to get involved. |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show |
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite? Nope. Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games.  The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. |
|||||||
10-31-22 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 13-32 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
I don't know why there is so much respect for the Browns in this matchup. They are not a good team. I'm not buying into the home division 'dog on Monday night, nor the Ja'Marr Chase injury as reasons not to back the Bengals. Yes, Chase is a top-five receiver. But the Bengals are deep at wide receiver and the Browns have it worse in the injury department. Out for Cleveland is its top cornerback Denzel Ward, elite guard Wyatt Teller and emerging tight end David Njoku, who had become QB Jacoby Brissett's favorite target. The Bengals' offensive line has gotten better. Joe Burrow has taken advantage of that to throw for 1,560 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception during Cincinnati's last five games. The Bengals have won four of those contests. Cleveland, by contrast, has lost four in a row. Brissett is a career backup. Cleveland relies on Nick Chubb and an excellent ground attack. That's needed to make up for an anemic downfield passing attack. The Bengals are the more balanced team with Joe Mixon on the ground and Burrow still having two excellent wide receiving targets, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Cincinnati has covered eight of its past nine road games. The Bengals also have covered seven of the past eight times when playing in Cleveland. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | San Diego State +9 v. Fresno State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
Fresno State star QB Jake Haener still could be out. That would mean another start for Logan Fife, who has been picked off six times filling in for Haener. But even if Haener can play, he's going to be rusty having last played Sept. 17. So I disagree with how high the Bulldogs are favored here. This should be a very close game with first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division at stake. Fresno State is 3-4 on the season, which includes a stunning road loss to Connecticut. The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. San Diego State is 26-10-1 (72 percent) versus below .500 opponents. The Aztecs have held three of their last four foes to 14 points or fewer. San Diego State has the superior special teams play, too, with an excellent kicker/punter in Jack Browning. ESPN ranks the Aztecs No. 1 in special teams efficiency. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Rutgers +14.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a winning record through seven games for the first time in eight years and are a bowl contender. The Scarlet Knights have been at their point spread-best on the road going 31-14, including 10-3-1 during their last 14 away games. Minnesota has gotten progressively worse after a 4-0 start. The Gophers have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing all three by 10 or more points. The problem for Minnesota is scoring. The Gophers are averaging fewer than 14 points during their last three games. Tanner Morgan is one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten and he's questionable with a concussion. The Gophers rely on a strong ground attack headed by Mohamed Ibrahim. Rutgers, however, ranks sixth against the run and eighth in defensive total yards. The Scarlet Knights also are tough on special teams, too, leading the Big Ten in blocked kicks with four. |
|||||||
10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Very tough scheduling spot for East Carolina here. The Pirates just upset American Athletic Conference rival Central Florida this past Saturday - their best win of the season - and now have to travel cross-country going into high altitude to Provo, Utah on a short week to take on BYU in a non-conference game. The Pirates are going to encounter an angry BYU squad that has lost three in a row, falling to Liberty, Arkansas and Notre Dame after a 4-1 start. This is a huge game for the independent Cougars, who would hurt their bowl opportunities with a loss here. East Carolina has a much bigger matchup in its next game facing Cincinnati, who is unbeaten in the AAC. BYU and East Carolina share a common opponent, South Florida. The Cougars smashed the Bulls, 50-21. BYU led 38-0 in the second quarter while outgaining South Florida, 575-279. East Carolina beat South Florida, 48-28, at neutral site Boca Raton due Hurricane Ian and gave up 455 yards to the Bulls. |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 10 m | Show |
Bill Belichick has faced many difficult challenges in his 23 years as head coach of the Patriots. Devising a defensive game plan to stop Justin Fields is not one of them. The Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL. Fields is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. He hangs on to the ball way too long. That's one reason why he has been sacked once in every five passing attempts. That's how bad it is. Chicago needs to run the ball well to have a chance. That doesn't figure to happen. The Patriots are extremely well-coached defensively. They just held Nick Chubb to a season-low 56 yards on the ground and the Browns to more than 100 yards below their rushing average last week. The Bears don't have a runner near the caliber of Chubb. The Patriots are likely to get back starting QB Mac Jones along with Damien Harris. The run-oriented Patriots should grind down the Bears, who rank 29th in run defense. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Bucs -10 v. Panthers | Top | 3-21 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 23 m | Show |
The dysfunctional Panthers draw Tampa Bay at a bad time. Todd Bowles just ripped his Buccaneers after they were upset, 20-18, by the Steelers this past Sunday. So zero chance of the Buccaneers taking the Panthers lightly. An elite Tampa Bay defense should have little trouble stopping a Panthers attack that doesn't have a legitimate starting NFL-caliber quarterback. Take away three defensive touchdowns and the Panthers would be averaging 13.6 points per game, which would be the lowest in the league. Carolina's money-burning ways have continued from last season. The Panthers are 1-13 SU and ATS in their last 14 games. They have lost their last three games all by double-digits. This is an easy get-right game for the Buccaneers. (Note that I released this game early in the week before the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. So the line has gone up. I still like the Buccaneers to absolutely bury the Panthers by more than two touchdowns so while much of the line value is gone the handicap still holds up.) |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog. It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach. I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line. "We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season. |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Given the quality of Denver's defense and injuries to several of their own key players, including top pass rusher Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen, I believe the Chargers are priced too high so I'll be on the underdog Broncos. Denver entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, second-fewest TD passes and had the fifth-most sacks. Russell Wilson no longer is his prime. But he still knows how to win and is capable of playing much better as he makes the transition from Seattle to Denver. He faces a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense giving up 27.2 points a game and 6.2 yards per run. Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone are solid enough backs to take advantage of the Chargers' weak run defense, which in turn sets up Wilson to effectively pick his spots. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 5 m | Show |
Rejoice time stops here for the Jets. While New York was celebrating beating the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback this past Sunday, the Packers were on their way home from London in humbling fashion after blowing a double-digit lead against the inferior Giants. Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder the size of his ego. I like Rodgers that way. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with all but one of those victories coming by at least 10 points. How did Rodgers fare in these nine games? Try a 24-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Jets are fat and happy having stopped a 12-game division losing streak. They are 3-2 with a miracle win against the less-than-bright Browns, another come from behind victory against the 1-4 Steelers and receiving an early Christmas gift of drawing an unprepared and ill-equipped Skylar Thompson when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early in the Dolphins game. Yeah the Jets are improved. They have some promising young players. But don't get carried away. The underachieving Packers are still at least two - if not three - levels higher than the Jets and are playing at home in circle-the-wagons mode. Green Bay is 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS during its last 15 home games. Matchup-wise, the Packers can run on the Jets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. If the Jets load the box - which I expect them to do - Rodgers has enough reliable pass catching targets and MVP ability left to burn the Jets. Green Bay is healthy on defense. They have the pass rushers with Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith to take advantage of the Jets' vulnerable offensive tackle situation, which is a fourth-string option at left tackle and a second-stringer at right tackle. Zach Wilson has yet to impress me. He's made 15 NFL starts. He's committed 14 turnovers and been sacked 47 times. I don't expect the Packers to be flat, or to be bothered by jet lag. The Saints and Vikings played in London two weeks ago. Both won last week without the benefit of taking their bye week. This is your classic buy low spot on the Packers. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 4 m | Show |
Teddy Bridgewater replacing injured Tua Tagovailoa is the major story. What is being overlooked, though, is the Jets' offensive tackle situation. The Jets are down to their fourth-string left tackle and they lost starting right tackle Max Mitchell to a knee injury this past Sunday.  The Dolphins have the pass rushers to take advantage of the cluster injury problem on the Jets' offensive line. Zach Wilson was terrible as a rookie. He didn't look much better against the Steelers last week in his season debut.  As for Bridgewater, he's one of the five best backup QB's in the league. His short yardage accuracy fits Miami's offensive system. He has the two best wide receivers on the field in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. The Jets are giving up 25.3 points a game, which ranks 26th. Miami has dominated the Jets winning eight of the past nine meetings while going 7-1-1 ATS.  The Dolphins opened with impressive victories against the Patriots, Ravens and Bills before drawing a tough scheduling break by having had to play last Thursday on the road against the desperate Bengals. But now the Dolphins are on extra rest and Bridgewater has ample preparation time.Â
|
|||||||
10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points. This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons. Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches. So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country. Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points. |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Jets v. Steelers -3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line? The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers. I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense. Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season. Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow. |
|||||||
10-01-22 | East Carolina -8.5 v. South Florida | Top | 48-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game. It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries. The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays. The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games. |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Bengals -6 v. Jets | Top | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now. But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago. Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up. The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense. |
|||||||
09-24-22 | USC -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation. Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings. But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback. The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over. |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Steelers +5 v. Browns | Top | 17-29 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40. I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range. As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett. The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game. The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday. Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury. The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.