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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -109 | 250 h 54 m | Show |
Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 22 m | Show |
While I don't expect there to be nearly the number of combined points there were in the two recent previous playoff games between these teams - 62 in the 2020 season AFC title game and 78 in the 2021 season divisional round game - I do believe there will be enough points produced to push this game safely Over the total.
Unlike last week, weather won't be a major concern. No snow, high wind or excessive cold. Temperatures are projected to be in the mid-20s. Josh Allen is playing at a high level and he won't be holding back on his running. Allen accounted for four touchdowns in the Bills' 31-17 wild-card round victory at home against the Steelers. Allen threw three TD passes and rushed for 74 yards and a TD. The last time the Chiefs faced an above average offense on the road was back on Dec. 3 when they surrendered 27 points to the Packers. I'm expecting a big performance from Patrick Mahomes, too. It's taken all season, but the Chiefs finally have found a consistent wide receiver to go with dependable tight end Travis Kelce. That receiver is rookie Rashee Rice, who in his last two games has caught 13 passes for 257 yards. Mahomes can exploit a terribly banged-up Buffalo defense that has a cluster injury problem at both linebacker and in the secondary. The Bills already were down their best linebacker, Matt Milano, and top cornerback, Tre'Davious White. Buffalo then lost four more defensive regulars against the Steelers, including leading tackler Terrel Bernard, cornerback Christian Benford and nickelback Taron Johnson. The Bills may not have their starting punter either as Sam Martin is dealing with a hamstring injury. Note, too, the short point spread. So there's a stronger than normal chance of overtime. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Lost in the glare of the Packers' 48-32 smashing upset victory of the Cowboys last Sunday was that Green Bay's defense was on the field for 89 plays.
Now the Packers go back on the road for the fourth time in the last five weeks - and on a short week with this being a Saturday game - to face a rested and healthy 49ers offense that led the league in net yards per passing play, rushing touchdowns and had the best red-zone conversion rate. The 49ers produced the second-most yards in the league and third-most points. I don't like Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and I don't trust Green Bay's defense. The Packers gave up 30 points, 26 first downs and nearly 400 yards of offense to Carolina just four games ago. It's scary to think how many points Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk can put up against the Packers defense, which was 28th in stopping the run and hasn't been innovative all season. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable, too, with an ankle injury. It's easy to overrate the Packers. After all, they just were seen burying the Cowboys in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score while the 49ers haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks. The 49ers are an elite, "A'' team. The Packers are two levels behind them and in a difficult situational spot. Green Bay has gone as far as it can go. Congrats to the Packers on a nice season, but it ends here and it ends in a big way. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -120 | 154 h 59 m | Show |
The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers. The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. |
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01-14-24 | Rams v. Lions UNDER 52.5 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 48-32 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling. |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 28 m | Show |
I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4 | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 19 m | Show | |
It's time. Michigan has the superior defense, ground attack and big-game experience having been in three straight college football playoffs to beat Washington by more than a field goal. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
These teams actually have some recent history. They played just two seasons ago and there were 41 points scored in Michigan's 31-10 victory. The big change since then is Washington now has Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback Michigan is familiar with from his days in the Big Ten at Indiana.
No team has scored more than 24 points on Michigan all season. The Wolverines have the best defense in the country. But what about Penix? Isn't he the best quarterback Michigan will face all season? The answer is yes. Penix had a tremendous game against Texas in leading Washington to a 37-31 Sugar Bowl victory. But Penix isn't among the four best college football quarterbacks in my view. He also didn't put up great numbers in the three previous games leading up to Texas throwing for an average of 228.3 yards with a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those lead-up games, which were against Oregon State, Washington State and Oregon. Michigan ranks first in the nation in total defense and second in pass defense. The Wolverines sacked Alabama's Jalen Milroe six times in holding Alabama to 21 points in their Rose Bowl victory. Milroe is much more mobile than Penix. Washington's star running back, Dilon Johnson, is banged-up. The Huskies have excellent wide receivers. Michigan has faced a better trio of wideouts, though, when it played Ohio State and held Buckeyes stars Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming to a combined 11 receptions for 201 yards with Harrison picking up 118 of those yards. None of Washington's wide receivers are in Harrison's upper elite class. The Huskies ranked a respectable 50th in scoring defense giving up 23.2 points a game despite playing in the high-scoring, pass-happy Pac-12 Conference. Their run defense is above average. Michigan turned into a heavy-oriented run machine during the final stretch of the regular season. I'm looking for the Wolverines to stay on the ground a lot. This is good for the Under keeping the clock running. It's also a positive because Michigan plays at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. So the Wolverines maintaining ball control while keeping Penix off the field is a good thing. |
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01-07-24 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 35 | 13-12 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an NFL regular season game masquerading as an exhibition game with an exhibition type total. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles v. Giants +5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 136 h 9 m | Show |
The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed. |
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01-07-24 | Jets v. Patriots -138 | 17-3 | Loss | -138 | 132 h 15 m | Show | |
This very well could be Bill Belichick's final game as head coach of the Patriots after 24 seasons. I don't see Belichick losing at home to the Jets, a rivalry opponent his Patriots have beaten 15 times in a row! |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens +3 | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Just because the Steelers are in a must-win spot to keep their playoff hopes alive, doesn't mean they will win. Yes, I understand the Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will be sitting out multiple starters, including Lamar Jackson. |
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01-01-24 | Alabama v. Michigan UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
Not only do both Michigan and Alabama have tremendous defenses, but both have slow-paced offenses. Michigan plays at the slowest tempo in the country while Alabama ranks in the bottom-30 in pace. So the clock is going to keep moving.
No team gave up fewer points per game than Michigan. The Wolverines rank No. 1 in scoring defense holding foes to 9.5 points a game. They rank second in the nation in fewest yards allowed and in pass defense. Alabama's skill position talent, while good, is down from previous seasons. The Crimson Tide, though, have an elite secondary and strong pass rush. I'm not expecting Michigan to pass much. The Wolverines dialed back their passing attack during their last few games. Michigan also won't have its star guard Zak Zinter, who suffered a broken leg against Ohio State. |
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12-31-23 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 44 | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show | |
The Vikings' defense has improved under ace defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota has held four of its last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are not an elite team right now. But the Bengals aren't even a playoff team without Joe Burrow and D.J. Reader to fortify the team's run defense. So I'm going to buy low on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by more than a touchdown at home. |
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12-31-23 | Chargers +5 v. Broncos | 9-16 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 24 m | Show | |
The demoralized Broncos aren't making the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Because of that and financial considerations, they could sit out Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham is Denver's backup QB. That's a huge dropoff. |
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12-31-23 | Rams v. Giants OVER 43.5 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 41 h 37 m | Show | |
Since returning from a finger injury, Matthew Stafford has been one of the best QB's in the NFL throwing for 1,578 yards with a 15-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. |
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12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
The Raiders buried the Chargers, 63-21, at home two weeks ago, drawing an opponent that picked that game to quit on their coach. Then last week the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns to upset the Chiefs. That game might have been the Raiders' Super Bowl considering how much they celebrated and how emotional it was for interim coach Antonio Pierce.Â
Pierce is an upgrade on the egregious Josh McDaniels, but he's not in the class of the Colts' Shane Steichen. The oddsmaker has priced this matchup like these two teams are even considering Indy's home-field advantage and an early start time for the Raiders. Yes, those are edges for the Colts. But the Colts also are much better than the Raiders. Thanks to the innovative Steichen, the Colts rank in the top-10 in scoring. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. Jonathan Taylor is back and primed for a big game. Michael Pittman is expected to play, too, after being out last week with a concussion. That gives Gardner Minshew his two best weapons. The Raiders rank 25th in scoring and 29th in total yards. Rookie Aidan O'Connell is in the argument for worst starting quarterback. Josh Jacobs has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable. |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -6 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly. |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season. Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career. Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions. Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57.5 | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Memphis has been an Over machine going above the total in nine of its last 10 games. It's easy to see why. The Tigers have an explosive offense - averaging 39.7 points - and a vulnerable defense. Iowa State averages nearly 30 points a game. Both teams have excellent quarterbacks, Seth Henigan for Memphis and Rocco Becht for Iowa State. Henigan was particularly hot down the stretch with a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. Blake Watson is one of the better all-purpose running backs in the country.  The Tigers catch a break as Iowa State will be without T.J. Tampa, a third-team All-American defensive back who opted out of the game.Â
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12-29-23 | Memphis +11 v. Iowa State | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.  The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season.  The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.Â
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here. |
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12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit. Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion. Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots. So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten. Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season? I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS. The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10. Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10. The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting. Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's. |
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12-25-23 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 41 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
This is the supreme fade spot on the Raiders' offense after they put up 63 points against the hapless Chargers at home last week. Despite that result, Las Vegas' offense isn't very good, quarterbacked by Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders averaged just 11.5 points in their previous four games before hosting the Chargers. |
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12-24-23 | Cowboys v. Dolphins UNDER 49 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
It's the star skill position players who come to mind first when thinking about this Cowboys-Dolphins marquee matchup. Those players are healthy with the exception of Tyreek Hill, who I do expect to play after he missed last week because of an ankle injury.
But it's injuries on the offensive lines and the underrated defenses that command my attention making me like the Under here. The Cowboys' secondary ranks second-best in the league in road games, holding quarterbacks to 150.9 net passing yards. Micah Parsons has 12 1/2 sacks. I rank him as one of the three best pass rushers in the NFL. Right tackle Austin Jackson is going to be lined up against Parsons. Jackson is dealing with an oblique injury. While I expect Jackson to play, the Dolphins will be without center Connor Williams and two other starters, Robert Hunt and Isaiah Wynn. Tua Tagovailoa is not a mobile quarterback. Miami's defense has come on. It's much improved and Dallas has its own offensive line injuries. Star left tackle Tyron Smith is out. Pro Football Focus ranks Smith as the NFL's third-best offensive tackle. All-Pro right guard Zack Martin is questionable with a quad injury. Bradley Chubb is having a dominant pass rushing season for the Dolphins. He's forced a league-best six fumbles and has 9 1/2 sacks. Dak Prescott has played much worse on the road. His home/road split is 304 passing yards with a 122.5 quarterback rating and a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to 216 yards passing per game, an 84.2 passer rating and an eight-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road. |
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12-24-23 | Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Geno Smith has missed Seattle's last two games. When Smith last played it was against the Cowboys. He accounted for four touchdowns and threw for 334 yards leading the Seahawks to 35 points in a 41-35 road loss. Smith is capable of games like that aided by having three excellent wide receivers and two good running backs. Smith will be back in action for this matchup. |
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12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings OVER 47.5 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
The last three games in this series have gone Over. There have been at least 52 points scored during each of those past three games. I see that pattern continuing. |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 35 m | Show | |
The starting quarterbacks are going to be backups Jake Browning and Mason Rudolph. Ja'Marr Chase is out.
So why go Over the total? Browning has been sneaky good and both defenses will be missing key players. The Steelers will be without their starting safeties, Minkah Fitzpatrick - one of the best in the league - and Damontae Kazee. Browning has thrown for 953 yards while accounting for seven touchdowns in Cincinnati's last three games. The Steelers gave up 30 points to the Colts last week and 21 points to the Patriots two weeks ago. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL, averaging 13.3 points. So I see the Bengals getting their share of points. The Steelers should get theirs, too. Pittsburgh piled up a season-high 421 yards of offense when the teams met four weeks ago. Now the Bengals will be minus nose tackle D.J. Reader, one of the top run defenders in the league. I'm not a fan of Rudolph. But the Steelers should be able to run effectively on the Bengals using Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to set Rudolph up for success. Rudolph has three excellent receiving options with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and tight end Pat Friermuth. The Steelers are throwing more to the middle of the field since they got rid of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. That bodes well for Friermuth. |
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12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -7 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 31 m | Show | |
These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game. Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs. Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end. |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
I've been looking to fade the Saints and this is the right spot. Both teams are 7-7, but the Rams are much the superior team. LA doesn't hold a huge home field advantage compared to other team's. However, the visiting team playing on Thursday is at a big disadvantage. So I believe this point spread is well short.
The Saints have beaten the Giants and Panthers at home during the last two weeks. Typical because New Orleans has played the easiest schedule. The Rams have drawn one of the more difficult schedules going against the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who they lost in overtime on the road two weeks ago. Since Matthew Stafford returned from his finger injury, the Rams have gone 4-1 SU and ATS. Stafford has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last four games. Kyren Williams has emerged as one of the top running backs in the league averaging 124.3 rushing yards the last four games. Cooper Kupp has come alive, too, catching 16 passes for 226 yards during the last two weeks. The Rams are averaging 33 points during the last four weeks. The Saints' defense is down from past seasons and their offense is mediocre at best. |
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12-19-23 | UTSA v. Marshall UNDER 51.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Texas-San Antonio's defense improved starting in Week 4. The Roadrunners held their last seven opponents to an average of 21.4 points. Marshall's offense is very unimposing. The Thundering Herd ranked 93rd in scoring and 89th in total yards. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders +7 v. Rams | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -3 | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 123 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm selling high on the Bears, who have won three of their last four games but haven't faced an elite defense like this on the road all season. |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do. |
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12-16-23 | California v. Texas Tech -3 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
Now that Tahj Brooks is set to play, I like Texas Tech to beat California in the Independence Bowl. The Red Raiders are better than Cal on both sides of the ball and Brooks is the best player on the field. |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 26 m | Show | |
The Lions' offensive line is back healthy, Jared Goff is at his best in a dome setting and the Broncos have been thriving because of takeaways. I see the Lions playing a clean game here. That would be bad news for Denver. The Lions have far more weapons than the Broncos. Detroit also has played three NFC North Division foes in its last four games. Those teams know the Lions. The Broncos don't. Detroit is 3-0 versus AFC West Division teams this season defeating the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.  This is Denver's first dome game of the season. It's not a good setting for the Broncos.  The Lions may not be a serious Super Bowl threat, but they are better than they've shown since Thanksgiving.Â
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12-16-23 | UCLA v. Boise State UNDER 49 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
I don't see many points being scored in this LA Bowl matchup of UCLA vs Boise State. UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country despite playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, which had the best quarterbacks of any conference. |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams have gone in opposite directions. New Mexico State is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. Fresno State fell apart after a promising 8-1 start, losing and failing to cover its final three regular-season games in bad form to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were favored against the Lobos and Aztecs. |
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12-16-23 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 42 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a low total for a Colts home game. Indy has gone Over in 69 percent of its games under innovative and aggressive Shane Steichen. |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. |
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12-11-23 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 46 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 13-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 15 m | Show | |
Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers. |
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12-10-23 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 6 m | Show |
There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind. |
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12-10-23 | Texans v. Jets +3.5 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston has been a major surprise this season. So has C.J. Stroud, who looks like a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.Â
But this is a clear buy low/sell high situation to take the Jets and go against the Texans. The warm-weather, roof-enclosed Texans are heading into cold and bad weather to face a disappointed Jets team that seems ready to take their season-long frustrations and jealousy out on a beatable opponent such as this. I actually believe Zach Wilson will provide a spark to a Jets offense that encountered one of the worst two-game quarterback stretches of the season with Tim Boyle. I expect a fresh Wilson to be improved after his two-game benching. He has the best running back, Breece Hall, and top wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, on his side in this matchup. The Texans rank 26th in pass defense. Stroud will be without explosive Tank Dell, the Texans' touchdown leader and second-leading receiver. The Jets have the third-best pass defense in the NFL. They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer during their last 30 games. |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 20 m | Show |
This game sets up very badly for the Jaguars. Not only is warm-weather Jacksonville traveling into cold and bad weather conditions on a short week, but doing it without their first and second string offensive left tackles and most consistent wide receiver, Christian Kirk.  The Jaguars are facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has outscored opponents, 113-61, at home in going 5-1.  If you discount a 28-3 loss to the Ravens, the Browns are giving up an average of 6.6 points in their five other home contests.  Joe Flacco is a huge upgrade on P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
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12-09-23 | Army -145 v. Navy | Top | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show |
No, I wasn't around for the Army-Navy game when Mr. Inside Glenn Davis and Mr. Outside Doc Blanchard were the stars. But I did see the 1963 game when Navy's Roger Staubach played. I still remember it, too. |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers UNDER 42.5 | 19-27 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season. |
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12-03-23 | Browns +4 v. Rams | 19-36 | Loss | -120 | 63 h 38 m | Show | |
The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense. |
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12-03-23 | Browns v. Rams UNDER 40.5 | 19-36 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 37 m | Show | |
The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day. Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards. The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center. The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game. |
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12-03-23 | Cardinals v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 44 m | Show |
Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 47.5 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines. |
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12-02-23 | Boise State -130 v. UNLV | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 6 m | Show | |
UNLV had been playing well above its head all season - until this past week when it lost at home as a short favorite to San Jose State. The Rebels made huge strides in Barry Odom's first season as their head coach. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 66 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -9 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +141 | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
The Chargers are extremely frustrating to get behind with their knack for blowing leads and bad coaching. In terms of talent, though, the Chargers are right there. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are top-five at their respective positions.  This will be the Ravens' first game without tight end Mark Andrews, who is Lamar Jackson's security blanket. The Ravens' wide receivers are all nursing injuries. They are likely to play, but could be hampered. The Chargers are tough to run on. So Jackson is likely going to have to deliver a strong passing game. I'm not sold that he can do that. This would be a good spot to buy one-half point taking plus 3 1/2. When getting 3 or more points, the Chargers have covered 15 of the last 16 times.Â
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11-26-23 | Bills v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor. |
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11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos -114 | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Everybody is talking about how good the Browns' defense is even saying it's Super Bowl caliber. However, Cleveland's defense is far less intimidating on the road. The Browns have surrendered an average of 29.7 points a game in four away games this season. |
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11-26-23 | Bucs v. Colts OVER 45.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out. |
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11-25-23 | West Virginia -10.5 v. Baylor | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week. |
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11-25-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 45.5 | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 57 m | Show | |
Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. |
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11-24-23 | Air Force v. Boise State -6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time. The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos. Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead. The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 40.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show | |
The weather will be fine for this Friday matchup. So the total can't be this low on a Dolphins game. Miami is the best offensive team in the NFL being first in points at 30.5 a game and in yards at 434.  The previous lowest total on a Miami game this season was 44. Now look at this total. The reason is Tim Boyle being the Jets' newly named starting quarterback.  Before getting to Boyle, it should be pointed out the Jets' defense is wearing down from overwork. New York is giving up an average of 25 points a game during its past three games. If Miami hits its season average, or even close to it, the Jets don't need to put up many points.  Can they do it with Boyle?  Boyle's numbers are terrible. He has thrown 120 NFL passes resulting in three touchdowns and nine interceptions. But there's a key intangible here. The Jets will have a different frame of mind instead of a defeatist attitude they had with Zach Wilson.  Boyle has more experience than Wilson. He prepares extremely hard. He also is in sync with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers from his two years spent with those guys as a backup quarterback for the Packers.  The Dolphins rank 23rd in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points a game. Boyle has two excellent weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. This is the Jets' season so they'll be less conservative.Â
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11-23-23 | Commanders +13.5 v. Cowboys | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
The Chiefs beat the Eagles at a neutral site in the Super Bowl and they'll beat them at home. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last dozen home games.
Kansas City is the healthier team and has the better defense. It's remarkable how good the Chiefs' defense has gotten. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 15.9 points per game, ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed and is fifth in pass defense. The Eagles' defense can't match that given their vulnerable secondary. Philadelphia entered this week allowing 19 TD passes, third-worst in the league, while ranking 28th in pass defense. Jalen Hurts might be the second-best QB in football. But Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Hurts also will be missing his third-best receiver, injured tight end Dallas Goedert. Both teams were idle last week. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 21-3 in that role. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings v. Broncos -133 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
The Broncos have their confidence up riding a three-game winning streak with the last two victories coming against the Bills and Chiefs. |
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11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins -11.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 24 m | Show | |
Afraid to lay big chalk in the NFL? Don't be. Double-digit favorites are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS.  Look for the Dolphins to continue that run of success. Miami comes off its bye with De'Von Achane eligible to play again and Jaylen Waddle at 100 percent. The Raiders' soft zone coverage may work against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, but Tua Tagovailoa is going to pick their vulnerable secondary apart.  The Dolphins lead the NFL in most points and yards by wide margins. They've lit up far better defenses than the Raiders.  Not only does offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel have extra time to prepare more innovations, but the Raiders are traveling cross-country to play at an early start time for them. This is with a rookie QB and rookie head coach.  Miami has beaten all the mediocre-to-bad teams on its schedule. The Dolphins' losses have come when stepping up - Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. This is a monster step down after their last game against the Chiefs. The Dolphins, by the way, had their best defensive half of the season in that game holding Kansas City scoreless in the second half.  The Dolphins have been dominant at home, too, winning 16 of the past 18 times. The Raiders are 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 during their past four road games. They have road losses of 28 points to the Bills, 18 points to the Bears and 12 points to the Lions.Â
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11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show | |
This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 7 m | Show | |
The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers -3 v. Packers | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 42 m | Show |
As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately. |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina +1.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results. |
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11-18-23 | Minnesota v. Ohio State UNDER 50.5 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 64 h 24 m | Show | |
Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game. |
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11-18-23 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 30 | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 43 m | Show | |
These Iowa totals have gotten ridiculous. I understand the Hawkeyes have still gone Under in their last five games, but this low total doesn't fully account for Illinois being the opponent and Iowa suffering a key defensive injury.
Look, I respect Iowa's defense. The Hawkeyes have the third-best scoring defense in the nation surrendering just 12.3 points. Illinois, however, has some speedy skill position weapons and gets back starting QB Luke Altmyer. If Altmyer struggles, the Illini can turn to senior backup John Paddock. He filled in for Altmyer last week and threw for 507 yards in a 48-45 overtime victory against Indiana earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. The Illini have averaged 29.2 points in regulation during their last four games. They've played some respectable defenses, too, during this span in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Note that the Hawkeyes aren't going to have star cornerback Cooper DeJean, who suffered a serious leg injury in practice this week. DeJean could be Iowa's best player. I'm not a fan of Iowa QB Deacon Hill. But he has gained plenty of experience having started the last six games. Illinois does not represent a high bar defensively. The Illini rank 101st in scoring defense giving up nearly 30 points a game. |
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11-18-23 | NC State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 44.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 54 m | Show |
Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. |
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11-12-23 | Jets +1 v. Raiders | 12-16 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 12 m | Show | |
The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 40 m | Show |
The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory. |
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11-12-23 | Falcons -120 v. Cardinals | 23-25 | Loss | -120 | 87 h 21 m | Show | |
If there's one thing the Falcons can do it's beat bad teams such as the Cardinals. Atlanta is 4-2 against .500 or below foes. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 85 h 50 m | Show | |
After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers. |
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11-12-23 | Saints -145 v. Vikings | 19-27 | Loss | -145 | 84 h 29 m | Show | |
The Falcons should have fired Arthur Smith for letting his Falcons lose, 31-28, to the Vikings and Joshua Dobbs last Sunday. It's not going to happen to defensive whiz Dennis Allen and the Saints. |
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11-11-23 | Texas -10.5 v. TCU | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. |
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11-11-23 | Washington State v. California OVER 59.5 | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a get well game for Washington State's sagging offense. California has surrendered at least 50 points in four games this season. I like Cam Ward to have a strong game for the Cougars against Cal's 127th-ranked secondary. |
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11-11-23 | Nevada v. Utah State UNDER 56.5 | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
This is too high of a total given that Nevada might be lucky to put up two touchdowns even against a bad Utah State defense. The Wolf Pack have scored 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. Their QB choice is either ineffective Brendon Lewis untested, raw redshirt freshman, A.J. Bianco. |
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11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH -17.5 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night. |
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11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 49.5 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 55 m | Show |
It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers +3 | 27-13 | Loss | -120 | 64 h 29 m | Show | |
If there's one game Panthers coach Frank Reich wants to win more than any other it's this one against the Colts, a team he was fired from after coaching them the previous five years. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. |
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11-05-23 | Rams v. Packers -160 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
If you're going to undergo a youth movement at the skill positions, you better have good coaching. The Packers lack leadership both on the field and on the sidelines. Their defense underperforms to their talent level and Matt LaFleur offers nothing innovative to help Jordan Love. It's obvious the Packers' success during LaFleur's previous three seasons was due to Aaron Rodgers carrying the team. |
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11-05-23 | Cardinals v. Browns -11 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. |
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11-04-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Fresno State | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm far from convinced Fresno State is better than Boise State. The Bulldogs have been extremely lucky while Boise State has been extremely unfortunate.
The Broncos are 4-4, but three of those losses were by a combined six points for an average loss of two points. The only time Boise State has been completely out of a game was its opener against No. 5 ranked unbeaten Washington. Fresno State is 7-1 with four of those victories occurring by a single score. Bulldogs QB Mikey Keene doesn't look completely healthy either. He finished last week's game against UNLV hobbling. The Rebels are not strong defensively. Yet they held the Bulldogs to 312 total yards. Boise State showed how far it has come along when it whipped Wyoming, 32-7, last week. Wyoming dealt Fresno State its only loss, 24-19, a month ago. The Broncos have historically been very strong as an underdog covering 65 percent of the time in that role during the past 52 instances. |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama -3 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show |
Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot. |
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