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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4 | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 19 m | Show | |
It's time. Michigan has the superior defense, ground attack and big-game experience having been in three straight college football playoffs to beat Washington by more than a field goal. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
These teams actually have some recent history. They played just two seasons ago and there were 41 points scored in Michigan's 31-10 victory. The big change since then is Washington now has Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback Michigan is familiar with from his days in the Big Ten at Indiana.
No team has scored more than 24 points on Michigan all season. The Wolverines have the best defense in the country. But what about Penix? Isn't he the best quarterback Michigan will face all season? The answer is yes. Penix had a tremendous game against Texas in leading Washington to a 37-31 Sugar Bowl victory. But Penix isn't among the four best college football quarterbacks in my view. He also didn't put up great numbers in the three previous games leading up to Texas throwing for an average of 228.3 yards with a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those lead-up games, which were against Oregon State, Washington State and Oregon. Michigan ranks first in the nation in total defense and second in pass defense. The Wolverines sacked Alabama's Jalen Milroe six times in holding Alabama to 21 points in their Rose Bowl victory. Milroe is much more mobile than Penix. Washington's star running back, Dilon Johnson, is banged-up. The Huskies have excellent wide receivers. Michigan has faced a better trio of wideouts, though, when it played Ohio State and held Buckeyes stars Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming to a combined 11 receptions for 201 yards with Harrison picking up 118 of those yards. None of Washington's wide receivers are in Harrison's upper elite class. The Huskies ranked a respectable 50th in scoring defense giving up 23.2 points a game despite playing in the high-scoring, pass-happy Pac-12 Conference. Their run defense is above average. Michigan turned into a heavy-oriented run machine during the final stretch of the regular season. I'm looking for the Wolverines to stay on the ground a lot. This is good for the Under keeping the clock running. It's also a positive because Michigan plays at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. So the Wolverines maintaining ball control while keeping Penix off the field is a good thing. |
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01-01-24 | Alabama v. Michigan UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
Not only do both Michigan and Alabama have tremendous defenses, but both have slow-paced offenses. Michigan plays at the slowest tempo in the country while Alabama ranks in the bottom-30 in pace. So the clock is going to keep moving.
No team gave up fewer points per game than Michigan. The Wolverines rank No. 1 in scoring defense holding foes to 9.5 points a game. They rank second in the nation in fewest yards allowed and in pass defense. Alabama's skill position talent, while good, is down from previous seasons. The Crimson Tide, though, have an elite secondary and strong pass rush. I'm not expecting Michigan to pass much. The Wolverines dialed back their passing attack during their last few games. Michigan also won't have its star guard Zak Zinter, who suffered a broken leg against Ohio State. |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season. Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career. Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions. Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57.5 | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Memphis has been an Over machine going above the total in nine of its last 10 games. It's easy to see why. The Tigers have an explosive offense - averaging 39.7 points - and a vulnerable defense. Iowa State averages nearly 30 points a game. Both teams have excellent quarterbacks, Seth Henigan for Memphis and Rocco Becht for Iowa State. Henigan was particularly hot down the stretch with a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. Blake Watson is one of the better all-purpose running backs in the country.  The Tigers catch a break as Iowa State will be without T.J. Tampa, a third-team All-American defensive back who opted out of the game.Â
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12-29-23 | Memphis +11 v. Iowa State | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.  The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season.  The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.Â
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here. |
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12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit. Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion. Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots. So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten. Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season? I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS. The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10. Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10. The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting. Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded. |
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12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -7 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 31 m | Show | |
These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game. Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs. Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end. |
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12-19-23 | UTSA v. Marshall UNDER 51.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Texas-San Antonio's defense improved starting in Week 4. The Roadrunners held their last seven opponents to an average of 21.4 points. Marshall's offense is very unimposing. The Thundering Herd ranked 93rd in scoring and 89th in total yards. |
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12-16-23 | California v. Texas Tech -3 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
Now that Tahj Brooks is set to play, I like Texas Tech to beat California in the Independence Bowl. The Red Raiders are better than Cal on both sides of the ball and Brooks is the best player on the field. |
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12-16-23 | UCLA v. Boise State UNDER 49 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
I don't see many points being scored in this LA Bowl matchup of UCLA vs Boise State. UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country despite playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, which had the best quarterbacks of any conference. |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams have gone in opposite directions. New Mexico State is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. Fresno State fell apart after a promising 8-1 start, losing and failing to cover its final three regular-season games in bad form to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were favored against the Lobos and Aztecs. |
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12-09-23 | Army -145 v. Navy | Top | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show |
No, I wasn't around for the Army-Navy game when Mr. Inside Glenn Davis and Mr. Outside Doc Blanchard were the stars. But I did see the 1963 game when Navy's Roger Staubach played. I still remember it, too. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 47.5 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines. |
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12-02-23 | Boise State -130 v. UNLV | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 6 m | Show | |
UNLV had been playing well above its head all season - until this past week when it lost at home as a short favorite to San Jose State. The Rebels made huge strides in Barry Odom's first season as their head coach. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 66 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. |
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11-25-23 | West Virginia -10.5 v. Baylor | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week. |
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11-25-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 45.5 | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 57 m | Show | |
Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. |
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11-24-23 | Air Force v. Boise State -6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time. The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos. Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead. The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately. |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina +1.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results. |
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11-18-23 | Minnesota v. Ohio State UNDER 50.5 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 64 h 24 m | Show | |
Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game. |
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11-18-23 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 30 | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 43 m | Show | |
These Iowa totals have gotten ridiculous. I understand the Hawkeyes have still gone Under in their last five games, but this low total doesn't fully account for Illinois being the opponent and Iowa suffering a key defensive injury.
Look, I respect Iowa's defense. The Hawkeyes have the third-best scoring defense in the nation surrendering just 12.3 points. Illinois, however, has some speedy skill position weapons and gets back starting QB Luke Altmyer. If Altmyer struggles, the Illini can turn to senior backup John Paddock. He filled in for Altmyer last week and threw for 507 yards in a 48-45 overtime victory against Indiana earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. The Illini have averaged 29.2 points in regulation during their last four games. They've played some respectable defenses, too, during this span in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Note that the Hawkeyes aren't going to have star cornerback Cooper DeJean, who suffered a serious leg injury in practice this week. DeJean could be Iowa's best player. I'm not a fan of Iowa QB Deacon Hill. But he has gained plenty of experience having started the last six games. Illinois does not represent a high bar defensively. The Illini rank 101st in scoring defense giving up nearly 30 points a game. |
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11-18-23 | NC State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 44.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 54 m | Show |
Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. |
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11-11-23 | Texas -10.5 v. TCU | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. |
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11-11-23 | Washington State v. California OVER 59.5 | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a get well game for Washington State's sagging offense. California has surrendered at least 50 points in four games this season. I like Cam Ward to have a strong game for the Cougars against Cal's 127th-ranked secondary. |
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11-11-23 | Nevada v. Utah State UNDER 56.5 | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
This is too high of a total given that Nevada might be lucky to put up two touchdowns even against a bad Utah State defense. The Wolf Pack have scored 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. Their QB choice is either ineffective Brendon Lewis untested, raw redshirt freshman, A.J. Bianco. |
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11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH -17.5 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo. |
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11-04-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Fresno State | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm far from convinced Fresno State is better than Boise State. The Bulldogs have been extremely lucky while Boise State has been extremely unfortunate.
The Broncos are 4-4, but three of those losses were by a combined six points for an average loss of two points. The only time Boise State has been completely out of a game was its opener against No. 5 ranked unbeaten Washington. Fresno State is 7-1 with four of those victories occurring by a single score. Bulldogs QB Mikey Keene doesn't look completely healthy either. He finished last week's game against UNLV hobbling. The Rebels are not strong defensively. Yet they held the Bulldogs to 312 total yards. Boise State showed how far it has come along when it whipped Wyoming, 32-7, last week. Wyoming dealt Fresno State its only loss, 24-19, a month ago. The Broncos have historically been very strong as an underdog covering 65 percent of the time in that role during the past 52 instances. |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama -3 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show |
Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -2.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Kansas is coming off one of its biggest football victories in school history having upset Oklahoma at home last Saturday. It was the Jayhawks' first home win against a Top 10 team since 1984. The fans went crazy storming the field. The victory also made the Jayhawks' bowl eligible, which is a big deal for them. |
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11-04-23 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +19 | 35-16 | Push | 0 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. That's the upper tier of the Big Ten. Heading up the next tier is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are having their best start in 11 years going 6-2, already bowl-eligible. They can stay within this number of Ohio State if not giving the Buckeyes a downright scare. |
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11-04-23 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 45 | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Think defense here. Notre Dame has held USC to 20 points, Ohio State to 17, Duke to 14 and Pittsburgh to 7. The Irish certainly can contain Cade Klubnik. Clemson is likely to be without its best runner, Will Shipley, too.
The Irish's offensive numbers have been boosted by numerous defensive scores. Clemson has had a very disappointing season. The Tigers, though, have been stout defensively ranking sixth in total defense and ninth in pass defense. |
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11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. |
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10-28-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 61.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
This total is too high given UCLA's outstanding defense. The Bruins have held foes to an average of 14.9 points a game. They rate No. 2 in run defense and 12th in total defense. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
A decline in recruiting and coaching is taking a toll on Boise State. The Broncos are overvalued because of their past reputation. This is such a case. |
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10-27-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
There's a stand-alone college football game on Friday. That makes this dull American Athletic Conference matchup between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic significant. The marketplace has been active, betting the total up. |
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10-21-23 | Tennessee v. Alabama UNDER 48.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 9 m | Show | |
Don't look for a repeat of last year's 52-49 Tennessee victory over Alabama.  The quarterbacks were Bryce Young and Hendon Hooker for that game. Jalen Milroe and Joe Milton are nowhere near the caliber of their respective predecessors.  The Volunteers rank 88th in passing yards. Milton has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. Alabama ranks among the top-15 teams in giving up the fewest points and yards per game. The Crimson Tide have huge revenge motivation.  Milroe has emerged as Alabama's best QB this season. But he's not a star. The Crimson Tide's offense is down from past seasons. Alabama ranks 87th in total offense. Milroe has been sacked 19 times during the last four games.  Tennessee's defense ranks in the top-18 in fewest yards and points per game.
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10-21-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -3.5 | 48-34 | Loss | -104 | 40 h 56 m | Show | |
If Houston didn't hit on a Hail Mary on the final play last week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers may have been a heavier favorite than they are now. That 41-39 loss to Houston halted the Mountaineers' four-game win and covering streak. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 36 m | Show |
This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. |
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10-21-23 | Air Force v. Navy +10.5 | 17-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
It's a simple rule when two service academies play one another, think Under and underdog, especially when the number is at double-digits like it is here. |
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10-21-23 | Central Florida +17.5 v. Oklahoma | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma may not be that sharp coming out of its bye having defeated arch-rival Texas in its previous game, 34-30, on a touchdown in the final minute. The Sooners still might be celebrating. UCF also is coming off a bye. The extra time allowed dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee to get healthy after missing most of the last four games. He makes a difference for UCF. The Knights are familiar with Sooners' star QB Dillon Gabriel, who played for UCF from 2019-21. The Knights actually average more yards per game than Oklahoma. |
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10-17-23 | Western Kentucky -7.5 v. Jacksonville State | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Schedule matters. So does quarterback injuries. Factor these elements in and Western Kentucky is worthy of a play. |
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10-14-23 | San Diego State -5.5 v. Hawaii | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show | |
Having had their last four games against Air Force, Boise State, Oregon State and UCLA, the San Diego State Aztecs are stepping way down in class. Hawaii was picked to finish 10th out of 12 teams in the Mountain West Conference in the preseason media poll and so far the Rainbow Warriors have lived up to those low projections. They have played one Mountain West game and were blown out, 44-20, by UNLV.  San Diego State has one of the top tight ends in the Mountain West, Mark Redman, and one of the best dual kickers in the country, Jack Browning.  The Aztecs hold major edges against the Rainbow Warriors at tight end, special teams and in running the ball. According to the ESPN Special Teams Efficiency metric, San Diego State fields the 19th-best special teams while Hawaii ranks 124th.  San Diego State has a history of defensive improvement as the season goes on. Hawaii ranks last in the country in rushing. That puts a lot of pressure on Rainbow Warriors QB Brayden Schager and he's turnover-prone with seven interceptions.  The Aztecs are far from explosive. But they are facing a defense that has only come up with one takeaway, gives up nearly 35 points per game and ranks 108th in rush defense. San Diego State has defeated Hawaii during each of the past three seasons.Â
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | 24-36 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 55 m | Show | |
No opponent has scored more than 17 points on UCLA. The Bruins have played two Pac-12 opponents and both games were very low-scoring with Utah winning, 14-7, and UCLA beating Washington State, 25-17, last week. Look for that same pattern here.  The Bruins are significantly better on defense this season leading the conference in total defense, rush defense and opponents yards per play.  Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei disappointed at Clemson. He's done better at Oregon State, but is far from being an elite quarterback. He has not seen a pass rush as good as UCLA's. The Bruins have 18 sacks and 116 pressures in five games. The Beavers have gone against some high octane offenses, but still rank in the top 30 in total defense and are 16th in run defense. Chip Kelly continues to baby highly-touted freshman QB Dante Moore. I expect Kelly will have a conservative game plan here being on the road as Moore has given up pick-sixes to both Utah and Washington State.
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10-14-23 | UCLA +3.5 v. Oregon State | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
I trust UCLA's defense to keep them in this game if not prove instrumental in the Bruins upsetting Oregon State. UCLA is surrendering just 12.2 points a game. Defensive end Laiatu Latu, perhaps the premier pass rusher in the country, and linebacker Darius Muasau have a combined nine of the Bruins' 18 sacks. UCLA has recorded 44 tackles for a loss. This is in just five games, too. Oregon State has permitted 30 tackles for a loss.  The Bruins rank No. 3 against the run. They can bottle up Oregon State's two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, forcing DJ Uiagalelei to beat them. I don't believe Uiagalelei is a good enough quarterback to do that.Â
 Oregon State just put up 52 points on California. That might have caused some line inflation here because I believe UCLA is the better team. |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 56.5 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show | |
Kansas State has a top-25 offense in yards and scoring, averaging 35.8 points. Texas Tech averages 34.2 points and has a stud running back, Tahj Brooks. He's the fifth-leading rusher in the nation. |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State +2 v. Texas Tech | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
I want Kansas State going for me following a 29-21 road loss to Oklahoma State as an 11 1/2-point favorite last week. Will Howard had his worst game throwing three interceptions against the Cowboys. He's much better than that, a grade above Texas Tech backup QB Behren Morton. The Red Raiders rank 94th in pass defense. I'm looking for a strong comeback performance from Howard. |
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10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9.5 | 15-6 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 40 m | Show | |
Both teams are strong defensively. But Iowa doesn't have enough offense to stay within double-digits of Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes were 132nd in yards per game at 249.2 and now have to go with backup QB Deacon Hill after starting QB Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Hill couldn't win the starting job at Wisconsin before transferring to Iowa. He's a step down from the mediocre McNamara. Iowa has the third-worst passing attack in the country. |
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10-14-23 | Troy v. Army UNDER 42.5 | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show | |
Two below average offensive teams with a bad weather element should spell Under in this Troy-Army matchup. There were only 19 points scored in Troy's 10-9 victory versus Army last year.  Just two teams play at a slower tempo than the run-oriented Black Knights. Troy ranks 15th in total defense and 12th in run defense. Army isn't going to suddenly open up with a passing attack especially with the forecast being for steady rain to fall.  During its last two games, Troy held Georgia State to seven points - 24 points below its average - and Arkansas State to three points, which is 19 points below its average.  The Trojans have a below average offensive line. The Trojans also have turned the ball over eight times in six games. Army has a top-40 defense.Â
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10-13-23 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 55 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
Tulane and Memphis certainly are capable of big-scoring games. But I don't see it happening in this matchup. |
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10-07-23 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss OVER 62 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
It's not just recent history why I like the Over here. There were 69 points scored in last year's game and 103 points scored in the matchup two seasons ago.
It's not just that arguably the two best running backs in the country will be playing, Arkansas' Raheim Sanders and Mississippi's Quinshon Judkins. It's not just that there also are two excellent QB's, the Razorbacks' KJ Jefferson and Old Miss' Jaxson Dart, who accounted for five TD's and 439 of the Rebels' 706 total yards in a 55-49 victory against LSU last week. No, the biggest factor why I like the Over is that neither team gives up the ball. Both teams have only one turnover. |
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10-07-23 | South Alabama v. UL-Monroe +10.5 | 55-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
Just because South Alabama beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on the road doesn't mean the Jaguars are any good. |
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10-07-23 | South Florida v. UAB OVER 68 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show |
South Florida's Byrun Brown is one of the nation's more underrated dual threat quarterbacks. The Bulls are really starting to click under new coach Alex Golesh with Brown operating the offense at the fifth-fastest pace in the country. |
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10-07-23 | Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 45.5 | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm not sure Kent State even gets a point here. The Golden Flashes average fewer than 13 points a game and are taking on an Ohio defense that gives up just 8.5 points per game. The Bobcats have been even better than that in their last three games holding Florida Atlantic, Iowa State and Bowling Green to an average of 5.6 points if you discount a defensive touchdown scored by Florida Atlantic.  Ohio doesn't have an explosive offense. The Bobcats are conservative relying on their defense. They average just 21 points a game and rank in the bottom-12 in yards per play. Note, too, that heavy wind is in the forecast.Â
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -113 | 48 h 20 m | Show | |
Washington State seems on a mission to win the last Pac-12 football championship as we know the league to be. Maybe it's because the Cougars are one of just four teams left in the Pac-12 after the league will break up starting next season. |
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10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty -19 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game. |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. |
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09-30-23 | Troy v. Georgia State -115 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Georgia State is staking an early claim to be the best team in the Sun Belt Conference off to a 4-0 start. The Panthers are positioned well to continue their success against Troy, which is 2-2 but has yet to cover a point spread. The Panthers are home and on extra rest having defeated Coastal Carolina last Thursday, 30-17, as a 5-point road 'dog. Troy has played just once on the road. The Trojans were blown out, 42-13, by Kansas State in that game. Georgia State has a good dual threat QB, Danny Grainger, and one of the best running backs, Marcus Carroll, in the country. Carroll is fifth in the nation in rushing yards with 508 and has scored the most rushing TD's of any running back with eight. The Panthers' defensive strength is their 23rd-ranked run defense. Troy has trouble running the ball. The teams did not meet last season. But Georgia State beat and covered against the Trojans in 2021, 2020 and 2019. The Panthers won those games by an average margin of 16 points. |
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09-30-23 | Houston v. Texas Tech -8 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that. Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach. I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois v. Purdue UNDER 54 | 19-44 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a stronger defensive battle here than the oddsmaker perceives. First-year Purdue coach Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator at Illinois before getting the Boilermakers job. He knows the Illini well. Illinois is averaging just 22.3 points, which ranks 99th. I was expecting more from Purdue QB Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas. The Boilermakers' offense has yet to fully click. Another key to making an Under work here is misleading defensive statistics. The numbers are skewed because both teams have faced three strong offenses, especially Illinois. The Illini have gone against Toledo, Kansas and Penn State. Purdue has faced Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin. |
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09-30-23 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 52.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm getting involved in this total now that the marketplace has shaved off a couple of points. We have two really bad defensive teams here. Virginia is the worst defensive team in the ACC. The Cavaliers rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 37.8 points a game and are 113th in defensive total yards. Eagles QB Thomas Castellanos is in line for a big performance. He's passed for 909 yards and eight TD's while also leading the Eagles in rushing with 280 yards. Helping the Over is BC playing at a top-15 tempo. Virginia should put up its share of points no matter who the quarterback is, either strong-armed gunslinger Anthony Colandrea or Tony Muskett, who started the first game but suffered a shoulder injury. The Cavaliers have one of the better receivers in the conference in Malik Washington. He's had three straight 100-yard receiving games. |
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09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 44.5 | 14-33 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Florida coach Billy Napier did a wise thing. He brought in defensive guru Austin Armstrong from Southern Mississippi. The Gators are giving up just 13.5 points a game with Armstrong as their defensive coordinator. I don't like Kentucky's skill position talent as much as last season. The Wildcats could get exposed offensively here having played weak opponents Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators should be able to get numerous sacks on Devin Leary, who has been picked off five times. Kentucky does have a solid defense, though, ranking in the top 20 in total defense and 10th in run defense. I'm not a fan of Florida QB Graham Mertz, who was a huge disappointment at Wisconsin before transferring to Florida. Both teams play at a very slow tempo ranking in the bottom-18 in pace. |
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09-23-23 | Iowa +14.5 v. Penn State | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread. Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin. Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020. The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season. No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame UNDER 55.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football. Sam Hartman is in the Heisman Trophy discussion especially if Notre Dame wins this game. Early marketplace activity has been on the Over knowing these two skill position superstars are playing. I see it differently. I look at how strong these two defenses are and find this total to be too high. Ohio State is giving up an average of 6.6 points in its three games. The Buckeyes just held Western Kentucky's Austin Reed to 207 passing yards and one TD. Reed is the FBS active career leader in passing yards. Reed isn't Hartman, but he's still darn good. Notre Dame ranks ninth in the country in fewest points allowed. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Notre Dame. I have questions about Ohio State's offense at this stage of the season. The Buckeyes' offensive line hasn't looked that good. Neither has their ground attack. QB Kyle McCord is unproven against this caliber of opponent. If McCord was that good, he would have been named the starting QB going into the season rather than three games into the year. |
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09-23-23 | Duke v. Connecticut UNDER 45.5 | 41-7 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 29 m | Show | |
Duke showed how strong it is defensively holding Clemson to seven points. Connecticut doesn't have the weapons to seriously challenge the Blue Devils defense. The Huskies, who are on their second quarterback, average only 15 points and 314 yards. Duke has the No. 5 run defense in the country. Connecticut allowed nine tackles for losses during their 24-17 loss to FIU last week. The Blue Devils are more of a grind-out team rather than explosive. This is their first road game. They have Notre Dame on deck. So the Blue Devils aren't likely to show this weak opponent any wrinkles in their playbook saving any trick plays for Notre Dame. Duke is going to be ground-oriented and doing it at a slow pace. Weather could factor, too, in limiting the score. Rain and heavy winds are in the forecast. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 64 h 47 m | Show | |
Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite. But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas. I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner. Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech. The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings. |
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09-23-23 | Miami-FL v. Temple UNDER 47 | 41-7 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 27 m | Show | |
At first glance this total may look right given how well Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke is playing and the threat Temple poses through the air thanks to E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. But look at the weather forecast. It's grim to say the least: 90 percent chance of rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-30 mph range. The 20th-ranked Hurricanes aren't thrilled to be traveling to Philadelphia for their first road game. Miami isn't going to show much against this lowly opponent. The Hurricanes play slow - only six teams go at a slower tempo - and will just want to get this game to finish fast. Temple has been good against the pass ranking 23rd in pass defense. Miami ranks in the top-20 in fewest yards allowed per game. Temple only averages 24 points a game and that's going against weak competition in Akron, Rutgers and FCS Norfolk State. Warner is off to a slow start and the Owls rank 87th in rushing. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 53 | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 31 m | Show |
Wisconsin is more balanced on offense, but weaker on defense. Purdue is weak defensively. So look for a higher total than what the oddsmaker has projected. The Boilermakers are surrendering 30.3 points a game and rank 108th in total defense. SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. One thing that hasn't changed about the Badgers is having a star running back. That's Braelon Allen. But he's not even the Badgers' leading rusher. Chez Mellusi is. He and Allen are averaging a combined 174 yards rushing a game. They each have four TD's. Purdue hasn't faced this good of an offense having played Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. The Boilermakers aren't going to get many stops. But the Badgers are going to encounter their own defense struggles trying to contain QB Hudson Card as their secondary is way down from past seasons. Wisconsin ranks 115th in pass defense. Georgia Southern QB Davis Brin threw for 383 yards against Wisconsin last week. Card is better than Brin. Both teams play at a faster than average tempo, too. |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State +7 v. Coastal Carolina | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State. I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground. Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season. Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010. It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play. Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect. The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season. Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley. |
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09-16-23 | San Jose State v. Toledo OVER 57 | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a quarterback shootout between Chevan Cordeiro, perhaps the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference, and Toledo stud DeQuan Finn. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have good receiving weapons particularly Finn, who has an excellent trio of Jerijuan Newton, CC Ezirim and Junior Vandeross. San Jose State has played two Division I schools - Pac-12 foes USC and Oregon State. The Spartans couldn't stop either team on the ground or through the air. The result was giving up 56 points to USC and 42 to the Beavers. Toledo just put up 71 points on Texas Southern in its last game. The Rockets' other game was a 30-28 road loss to Illinois. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
I find Tennessee and its quarterback, Joe Milton, to be overrated. Considering the Volunteers haven't won at Florida since 2003, I'm going to take this many points with the Gators. Tennessee only beat Austin Peay, 30-13, last Saturday as a 48 1/2-point home favorite. The Governors were within 10 points still in the fourth quarter. That raises a big red flag. Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz is getting more accustomed to operating Florida's offense. |
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09-16-23 | Western Kentucky +30 v. Ohio State | 10-63 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm not sold so far on Ohio State. I find the Buckeye overpriced against a Western Kentucky team that is very potent on offense with a very good quarterback.  Throw in a look-ahead sport for Ohio State with its marquee matchup against Notre Dame up next and I'll take this many points with the Hilltoppers.  Who has Ohio State played? Nobody really. The Buckeyes are 2-0 with wins against Indiana, a lower tier Big Ten team, and Youngstown State. Ohio State didn't cover in either game. Kyle McCord has emerged as Ohio State's starting QB, but he's unproven. The Buckeyes' running game ranks 88th.  Austin Reed is anything but unproven. He led the nation in passing yards for Western Kentucky with 4,744 last season. He had a 40-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and scored another eight TD's rushing.  The Hilltoppers are averaging 46.5 points this year in rolling past South Florida and Houston Christian.Â
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09-16-23 | Minnesota v. North Carolina -7.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
Athan Kaliakmanis follows Tanner Morgan in a long line of stiff Minnesota quarterbacks. He can't trade points against college superstar Drake Maye.
North Carolina's defense may be better than expected after limiting South Carolina to minus two yards rushing while sacking Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler nine times two weeks ago in its opener. Never has Minnesota defeated a top Top 25 team on the road under P.J. Fleck, who is in his seventh season. The Tar Heels rank 20th in the country. Maye will take advantage of Minnesota's inexperienced linebackers and the Gophers' weak schedule. |
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09-09-23 | Auburn v. California OVER 54 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
Never mind the quarterbacks. It's the strong rushing attacks, California's weak defense and fast pace from both teams that will get this game to go Over. Auburn rushed for 289 yards and six TD's in a 59-14 win against UMass last week. Sure UMass isn't very good. But the Tigers looked great running the ball behind an upgraded offensive line. Cal has a weak defensive line, not good at stopping the run nor pressuring the quarterback. The Golden Bears rushed for 357 and six TD's in their 58-21 opening week road victory against North Texas. That total went Over by 26 points. Jaydn Ott gives Cal one of the best running backs on the West Coast. Cal's high-scoring wasn't a fluke. The Bears brought in Jake Spavital to be their new offensive coordinator. His style is to play fast. Auburn gave up five yards per rush attempt to UMASS, which was its average last season. So Cal and Ott should find success on the ground again. The Tigers play up-tempo, too, under their first-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who has an outstanding reputation for building high-octane offenses. |
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09-09-23 | Oklahoma State v. Arizona State UNDER 55.5 | 27-15 | Win | 100 | 31 h 13 m | Show | |
Neither team was sharp in their openers last week. Arizona State managed only three points during the second half in its 24-21 win against FCS foe Southern Utah. The Sun Devils were 34 1/2-point favorites. The Sun Devils are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Jaden Rashada. His task and learning curve are going to be far more difficult this week. ASU's offensive line is a weakness after losing key linemen in the transfer portal and a projected starter going down with an injury. Oklahoma State has a big and physical defensive front seven. The Cowboys had five sacks in their opener. The Cowboys were not impressive, either, in their 27-13 win against Central Arkansas last week. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is using a three-player committee at quarterback. That's not a good sign. The teams met at Oklahoma City last year and the Cowboys won, 34-17. Arizona State is better on defense this season. |
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09-09-23 | Temple +8.5 v. Rutgers | 7-36 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Rutgers beat a horrible, rudderless Northwestern team, 24-7, last week. Apparently the oddsmaker thinks that's a big deal judging by how many points the Scarlet Knights are favored by here. Let's not forget Rutgers losing eight of its last nine games last year, including getting blown out by Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland. Temple could surprise in the AAC with 16 returning starters. The Owls have one of the conference's better QB's in E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. The teams met last season. Rutgers was outgained by 58 yards, but managed to slip past the Owls, 16-14. The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS off a double-digit point spread cover. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Washington State | 22-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a huge revenge spot for Wisconsin. The Badgers were stunned at home by Washington State last year, 17-14. That also was during the second week of the season. The Badgers, though, should have won. They outgained the Cougars by 148 yards and had a 38:02 to 21:58 advantage in time of possession. However, the Badgers turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals. Don't look for the Badgers to be that sloppy again. They are focused, motivated and have upgraded their coaching going from conservative and stale Paul Chryst to Luke Fickell. Wisconsin also improved greatly at quarterback going from disappointing Graham Mertz to SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai, who threw 72 touchdown passes for the Mustangs in two seasons. Cameron Ward had a huge game for Washington State leading the Cougars to a 50-24 win against Colorado State. The Cougars couldn't get a ground attack going, though, They ran the ball 37 times against the Rams and could average 2.4 yards per carry. Unlike Washington State, the Badgers are balanced. They have one of the running back tandems in the country with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi. |
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09-09-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Missouri UNDER 50 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 5 m | Show |
I'm not impressed with either team's quarterback situation. I do respect both team's defenses, though. Tempo is important, too. Each team plays slow. So I find this total too high. Middle Tennessee State has four starters back on a defense that ranked fourth-best in the red zone. Missouri still hasn't fully settled on a quarterback between Brady Cook and Sam Horn. They have one of the weakest quarterback situations in the SEC. Missouri has a strong defensive front. I don't see the Blue Raiders, which lost a lot of offense from last year, being able to run successfully on the Tigers, nor is QB Nicholas Vattiato going to hurt them through the air. The Blue Raiders were held to just seven points and 3.5 yards per play by Alabama in their opener. Now they face another tough SEC defense. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl. This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day. Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season. Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game. |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State v. San Jose State OVER 54 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
They don't get the publicity of quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but Oregon State's D.J. Uiagalelei and San Jose State's Chevan Cordeiro are two of the better QB's in the country. Cordeiro could be the best QB in the Mountain West. Uiagalelei couldn't live up to his potential at Clemson as the replacement for Trevor Lawrence, but figures to get coached up at Oregon State under head coach Jonathan Smith and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren. Uiagalelei can rely upon an excellent offensive line and two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick. San Jose State is down on defense from last season. The Spartans surrendered 56 points to USC last week. San Jose State covered against the Trojans, though, by scoring 28 points. The Spartans averaged six yards per play. Cordeiro threw for three TD's. Just as important, the Spartans played at a fast pace. Oregon State, like San Jose State, looks to be down defensively from last year. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up. So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season. South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense. The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. |
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09-02-23 | Texas State v. Baylor OVER 58 | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 340 h 26 m | Show | |
Baylor is going to pile up points against a rebuilding and weak Texas State defense. The Bears averaged 32 points last season and upgraded their offensive line getting the highly-touted Barrington brothers, Campbell and Clark, as transfers from BYU. Baylor's top two runners, Richard Reese and Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson, combined to rush for 2,111 yards last year.  The key here is Texas State is going to pick up its offensive production under new coach, 34-year-old whiz kid G.J. Kinne, whose Incarnate Word team was the No. 1 scoring team in the FCS and ranked No. 2 in total offense last year playing at a lightning-fast tempo. Kinne brought in a lot of intriguing skill position players to make his offense work.  Baylor is vulnerable in the secondary with an inexperienced crew. The Bears had just 14 sacks in their last eight games last season. So expect a lot of points.
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09-02-23 | Washington State v. Colorado State +10.5 | 50-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Double-digit home 'dog with revenge is one reason I like Colorado State. Another is the coach. It took two years for Jay Norvell to build up Nevada. The Rams went 3-9 in Norvell's first season last year. Expect big improvement this season. Colorado State's defense already is solid. The offense is bolstered having a year in Norvell's system and with nine key transfers. Washington State may lack focus traveling and hearing about the breakup of the Pac-12 and where its own football future is. The Cougars also have a vulnerable offensive line that Colorado State can stay competitive against. |
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09-02-23 | California v. North Texas OVER 53.5 | 58-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 47 m | Show | |
The marketplace has reacted to the new starting quarterbacks at California and North Texas by betting this total down. The Over/Under is low enough where there's value on the Over now. What's being overlooked here is tempo. It's going to be quicker than perceived with Jake Spavital brought in by Cal coach Justin Wilcox to be the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. Spavital has a well-earned reputation of developing QB's and speeding up a team's attack. This is good news for Sam Jackson V, a redshirt sophomore and TCU transfer who will be under center for the Golden Bears. He faces a North Texas defense that gave up 31.5 points a game and ranked 124th in total defense last season. North Texas is going with dual threat Stone Earle as its starting QB. Reports out of spring camp was Earle had improved his passing accuracy. The Mean Green should play faster, too, with Eric Morris as their new head coach. Cal ranked 123rd in pass defense last year. |
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09-02-23 | Buffalo v. Wisconsin UNDER 54.5 | 17-38 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 47 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is going to have more of a balanced attack with new coach Luke Fickell bringing former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo on board. But the Badgers certainly are not going to lose their identity of being run-oriented with a strong defensive unit. There's no reason for the Badgers to tip anything off about their offense against this non-conference opponent being nearly a 30-point favorite. So I don't see Buffalo producing many points with their mediocre offense. But can the Bulls slow down Wisconsin? I believe they can. Senior linebacker Shaun Dolac led the nation with 97 solo tackles last season while safety Marcus Fuqua tied for the most interceptions with seven. |
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09-01-23 | Miami-OH +18 v. Miami-FL | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 266 h 14 m | Show |
I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game. The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era. Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent. Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season. Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent. So look for a close game here. |
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08-26-23 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech OVER 58.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting 76 points to be scored like there were in Florida International's, 42-34 double overtime, home victory against Louisiana Tech last year. But I do expect these teams to combine for more than 60 points. Part of this is believing Florida International QB Grayson James has improved. James goes against a Louisiana Tech defense that was one of the worst in the country in 2022 ranking 128th in scoring defense and 127th in total defense. James should have time to pass and can rely on plenty of yards on the ground. The Bulldogs couldn't stop the run - ranking 130th - and didn't generate a pass rush. Louisiana Tech certainly isn't favored because of its defense. The Bulldogs have a fast-tempo, high-powered offense operated by Boise State transfer QB Hank Bachmeier. He was hurt last year, but was very good two seasons ago. The Bulldogs averaged 29 points last season in Sonny Cumbie's first season as head coach. They should improve on that number in Year 2 of Cumbie's ''Air Raid'' offense, especially going against such a weak defense here at home. |
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08-26-23 | San Jose State +31 v. USC | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show | |
Yes, Caleb Williams is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. But USC has a suspect defense that permitted nearly 28 points a game last season. San Jose State can produce points against this caliber of defense. The well-coached Spartans have the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference in Chevan Cordeiro. He's one of nine returning offensive starters for San Jose State. Cordeiro accounted for 32 TD's last season and threw for 3,251 yards. The Spartans are capable of getting stops against Williams. They have size at cornerback and an excellent safety in Tre Jenkins. The Williams' Heisman hype has made this point spread too lopsided. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt -17 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 55 m | Show |
Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home. The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense. After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click. Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 118 h 56 m | Show |
Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time. TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs? Yes, they are. Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs. The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage. Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game. The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here. |
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01-02-23 | Utah -110 v. Penn State | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 0 m | Show | |
Ever since joining the Pac-12 in 2011 it has been Utah's goal to win the Rose Bowl. The Utes came very close last season falling to Ohio State, 48-45, on a late field goal. Utah lost its star quarterback, Cam Rising, to a head injury early in the fourth quarter in that game. Rising had another outstanding year this season passing for 2,939 yards with a 25-to-7 TD-to-interception ratio. I like Rising more than Penn State QB Sean Clifford, who will be without his top receiver, Parker Washington. He has a leg injury and also declared for the draft as did the Nittany Lions star cornerback Joey Porter Jr. The Utes are 11-4 in bowl games under much respected coach Kyle Whittingham. Utah was impressive in its last game beating USC, 47-24, in the Pac-12 title game. I believe the Utes are the superior team and they have Rose Bowl experience. Their chance is here. And they will take advantage of it. |
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01-02-23 | Tulane v. USC OVER 63.5 | Top | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
The total is high in this one - but not high enough. Tulane was the 21st-highest scoring team in the country averaging 35.2 points a game. That average goes up to 38.8 during its last seven games. USC has trouble against mobile quarterbacks and Tulane's Michael Pratt is a dual threat. Pratt accounted for 35 touchdowns through the air and on the ground rushing for 395 yards and passing for 2,775 yards. Lincoln Riley turned USC around. The Trojans did this on offense averaging 41.1 points per game, third-best in the country. If you discount their Pac-12 title game against Utah - the one team the Trojans had trouble against - the Trojans averaged 44.8 points during their last six games. Caleb Williams may be the best QB in the nation. He threw for 4,075 yards, 37 TD's with just four interceptions while completing 66.1 percent of his throws. I don't see Tulane's defense stopping USC's offense, which can offset several opt-outs with its depth. The Over has cashed in each of USC's last seven games. |
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