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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent. |
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03-29-24 | Duke +4 v. Houston | 54-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Betting on ACC teams during the NCAA Tournament has been a gold mine. ACC teams are 9-1 SU, 8-1-1 ATS with Duke contributing a 2-0 SU and ATS mark.  The Blue Devils are strong both on offense and defense. The same can't be said for Houston. The Cougars may have the best defense in the country, but their offense was below average. It ranked 165th in scoring, 240th in field goal percentage and 298th in free throw percentage.  Duke has a top-20 defense going by Ken Pom's advanced metrics and averages six points more per game than Houston. The Blue Devils have an elite big man, Kyle Filipowski, and three excellent guards. Houston can't match that offensively.  While the Blue Devils destroyed James Madison, 93-55, in the second round, Houston barely survived. The Cougars needed overtime to slip past Texas A&M after blowing a 13-point lead with under four minutes to play in regulation.Â
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State -125 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State. Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points. Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time. Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon. Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games. Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country. |
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03-25-24 | Chicago State v. Fairfield -5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante. |
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03-22-24 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Nebraska | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much. |
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03-22-24 | Yale v. Auburn UNDER 140.5 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Auburn is used to high-scoring SEC opponents who can play fast. That's certainly not Yale. The Bulldogs are a well-coached Ivy League team that is going to try to frustrate Auburn by playing at their usual slow tempo. They ranked in the top-30 in having the slowest possession time. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday. |
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03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them. Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona.  South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games. |
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03-21-24 | Morehead State +12 v. Illinois | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't like Illinois' track record in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have failed to get through the first weekend of the tournament during their last three appearances. Illinois gets worn down, which could be the case again this season after beating Wisconsin in the always-physical Big Ten Conference Tournament.  The Illini have a potential superstar guard in Terrence Shannon Jr. Morehead State, however, has a very strong backcourt, too, with Riley Minix, Drew Thelwell and Kalil Thomas. Minix was the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds. Thelwell holds the school's single-season assist record while Thomas ranked in the top 20 nationally with 103 3-pointers this season.  The Eagles enter this matchup with a six-game win streak and being very underrated.Â
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03-20-24 | Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C. |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Wagner and Howard meet in this play-in NCAA Tournament game. Power ratings-wise, I have Howard as more than a 3-point favorite. So I'll be on the Bison.
Wagner finished 7-9 in the Northeast Conference, but got hot in the conference tournament. The Seahawks finished the conference tournament title game with just seven healthy players. The Seahawks average just 63.1 points a game and rank 358th in field goal percentage. Howard has the better record and the top player on the court in Bryce Harris, who led the team in scoring and rebounding. |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday. |
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03-16-24 | New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
I like New Mexico to upset San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game. |
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03-16-24 | UMass Lowell v. Vermont -7 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is the finals of the America East Conference Tournament and the deck is stacked in Vermont's favor. The venue is the Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT. That is the Catamounts' home floor where they are 44-2 since the start of 2021-22 season. Vermont has won 32 straight conference games at home.  |
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03-15-24 | St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 137.5 | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
St. Peter's ranks 14th in the nation defensively allowing only 64.1 points a game.  Quinnipiac has stepped up defensively holding its last four foes to an average of 61.7 points. St. Peter's ranks 339th in scoring.  This is a semifinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference so the defensive intensity should be raised.  The site, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is notorious for being a tough shooting venue because of its difficult backdrops and structure. The Under has cashed 65 percent of the past 62 tournament games played there.Â
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03-15-24 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee -10 | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Tennessee beat every team in the SEC except one on its way to capturing the regular-season title. The one team the Volunteers lost to happened to be Mississippi State. |
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03-14-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now. |
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03-14-24 | Providence v. Creighton -8 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Creighton is at its finest when it comes to the best time to peak - in March. The Bluejays have covered 82 percent of their past 17 March games. I like the Bluejays to roll past Providence by double-digits. |
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03-13-24 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -6 | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset home win against Florida. But even though Arkansas has had a disappointing season, I don't see the Commodores hanging in against the Razorbacks. |
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03-12-24 | Florida International v. Jacksonville State -4 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a matchup of the bottom two teams in Conference USA. But it has a clear right side - Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks won and covered both regular-season games against Florida International out-rebounding the Panthers by 27 boards.Â
Jacksonville State's strength is its 32nd-ranked defense that yields just 66.1 points a game. FIU has no strengths. The Panthers are a below average shooting team, terrible from the free throw line and give up 10 more points per game than Jacksonville State. The Panthers rank 349th in defensive field goal percentage and 369th in 3-point defense. FIU is not in good form having dropped 10 of its last 13 games. |
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03-11-24 | Tex A&M Commerce v. Nicholls State -5.5 | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Nicholls State is the better team and in better form than Texas A&M Commerce in this Southland Conference Tournament game.  Texas A&M Commerce has been terrible in an underdog role. The Lions are 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times they've been an underdog of more than one point. They are a bad shooting team and are bad, too, in defensive field goal percentage ranking 300th.  Nicholls State went 2-0 vs the Lions during the regular season, winning the most recent matchup, 85-70, at home on Feb. 24.Â
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03-09-24 | Arizona v. USC OVER 159.5 | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Thanks to the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation, Arizona has wrapped up another Pac-12 regular-season championship. USC has finally gotten healthy and is coming on scoring 81 and 82 points, respectively, in their last two games. |
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03-09-24 | Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread. |
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03-09-24 | Colorado v. Oregon State +8 | 73-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
It's tough to beat both Oregon and Oregon State on the road in the span of three days. Colorado accomplished the first task defeating Oregon, 79-75, this past Thursday. That win clinched third place in the Pac-12 standings and earned the Buffaloes a first round bye in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. |
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03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 136 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Boise State and San Diego State are two of the better teams in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference. Boise State is 21-9 and San Diego State is 22-8. Both, though, are in bad moods coming off losses. |
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03-08-24 | Ball State +5 v. Bowling Green | 70-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I like Ball State's current form. The Cardinals have been underdogs three times in their last five games. They've won each of those games beating Northern Illinois and Central Michigan on the road. Then this past Tuesday, the Cardinals upset Kent, 76-69, as a 3-point home 'dog. |
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03-07-24 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 137 | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
These teams are far better on defense than offense. Cal State-Fullerton ranks 320th in scoring, but 78th defensively. Cal Riverside rates 288th in scoring and 169th defensively. |
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03-07-24 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Morehead State UNDER 138 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Strong defense, slow tempo and a tough shooting venue. Those are the reasons why I like this total to go Under in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament game.  Morehead State gives up the second-fewest points in the country at 62.5 per game. They rank in the top-10, too, in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. And here's the kicker - the Eagles also are a bottom-10 team in terms of pace. They play extremely slow. That is fine with SIU Edwardsville. The Cougars are playing without rest having beaten Eastern Illinois, 68-57, in a first round OVC tournament game on Wednesday. The tempo in that game was slow and the Cougars were fine playing that way.  Morehead State has been especially sharp defensively in its last three games allowing an average of just 52 points.  The Eagles are strong favorites to beat SIU Edwardsville, but they will be careful. The Cougars upset them, 61-48, at home during the regular season. The Cougars accomplished that by playing at a slow tempo. They have an above average defense, giving up 70.3 points.  The venue should factor, too. The game is being played at Ford Center in Evansville, Ind. This is a neutral site arena with 11,000 seats that traditionally has been hard for players to get used to the shooting sights. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of the previous 43 Ohio Valley Conference tournament games played at Ford Center.Â
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03-06-24 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Le Moyne -3.5 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
I trust Le Moyne's defense much more than Fairleigh Dickinson's offense in this Northeast Conference Tournament matchup. |
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03-06-24 | Villanova v. Seton Hall | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Villanova is in good shape for an NCAA Tournament bid. Seton Hall isn't - unless it wins here. I believe the Pirates will accomplish that. |
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03-05-24 | Nevada v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
There were only 120 points scored in the team's first meeting, a 64-56 Boise State win on Jan. 12. Do I think more points will be scored in this rematch? Yes, but not enough of them go to Over the total. |
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03-04-24 | Delaware State v. Howard -4 | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
Howard is in excellent form winning five of its last six games, including three in a row.The Bison average four more points per game than Delaware State and can exploit the Hornets' porous 3-point defense, which ranks 338th. |
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03-03-24 | Indiana +9 v. Maryland | 83-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Maryland ranks 332nd in field goal percentage, is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten Conference and its home mystique has been shattered with losses to Rutgers and Northwestern. |
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03-02-24 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 138 | 52-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Both teams are dealing with injuries that have derailed their offenses. |
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03-02-24 | Kansas State +6.5 v. Cincinnati | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Kansas State is coming on and Cincinnati is reeling. So this is a generous amount of points to back the Wildcats in an important game for both teams that should feature lots of intensity. |
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03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Lafayette is home, in a revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. It says a lot that the oddsmaker has opened the Ragin' Cajuns such a strong favorite against Southern Mississippi. I agree with their assessment. I see the Ragin' Cajuns winning by double-digits as three of their past four four losses have come on the road. |
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03-01-24 | Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist | Top | 55-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team. |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +4 | 86-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Gonzaga is back in the Associated Press Top 25 ranking 23rd. But this isn't the elite Gonzaga team of previous years. They are overpriced against San Francisco, which is 7-1 in its last eight games and 13-1 at home. |
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02-28-24 | Minnesota +11.5 v. Illinois | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
You wouldn't know it from their last game, a bad 18-point loss to Nebraska this past Sunday. But the Minnesota Gophers own the best point spread mark in college basketball at 23-4 (85 percent). |
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02-28-24 | St. John's v. Butler -120 | Top | 82-59 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Butler is home, has revenge and is in circle-the-wagons mode. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row putting them on the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs and I believe they will come through given St. John's recent road conference struggles. |
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02-27-24 | Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada. |
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02-27-24 | Valparaiso v. Northern Iowa UNDER 148 | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
I always think defense first when it comes to the Missouri Valley Conference. This quick rematch between Valparaiso and Northern Iowa should result in a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives. |
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02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard -13 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Howard is a mediocre MEAC team. But the Bison are vastly superior to Coppin State, which is 2-22 and has lost 15 of its last 16 games. |
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02-25-24 | Siena +16 v. Fairfield | 64-88 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Siena has been an easy fade as the Saints are one of the worst teams in college basketball with a 4-22 record, including 3-12 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. |
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02-24-24 | Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149.5 | 68-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Pepperdine has gone Over in five of its last six games. The Waves are averaging 90 points in their last two games, but their defense remains awful. |
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02-24-24 | CS-Northridge +2.5 v. CS-Fullerton | 65-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Even though Cal-State Fullerton is playing at home, it's a surprise the Titans are favored. Cal-Northridge is the superior team. |
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02-24-24 | Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row. |
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02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2.5 | 85-81 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Quinnipiac is 10-2 in its last dozen games, but coming off an embarrassing home to Niagara. The Bobcats are superior to Fairfield, which is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, and the price is low enough to back them. |
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02-22-24 | Troy State +2.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. |
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02-22-24 | College of Charleston v. Delaware +2 | 90-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
College of Charleston has a better record than Delaware, but I don't see the Cougars winning this game. |
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02-22-24 | Hampton +9.5 v. Campbell | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Hampton was a 3 1/2-point favorite when it hosted Campbell back on Jan. 6. Even though Campbell won, 80-69, I find this point spread too high. Hampton has a winning ATS mark in its last six games. The Pirates have lost by more than six points twice in their last seven games. They are 6-2 ATS the last eight times when getting three or more points.  Campbell is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Fighting Camels have been favored by more than four points only once all season. That was against 9-16 Morgan State.Â
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02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV. |
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02-21-24 | Dayton -130 v. George Mason | 67-71 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
If Dayton wins this game it will take over sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10 Conference. The Flyers are a complete team with a star player, DaRon Holmes, to match George Mason's key player, Keyshawn Hall.Â
George Mason, though, could be minus their second-leading scorer, Darius Maddox, though. He's questionable with an injury. The 16th-ranked Flyers have proven themselves on the road covering eight of 11 times. They are the superior team so this is a short price to lay. |
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02-21-24 | Richmond -4 v. Rhode Island | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Richmond is a couple of levels higher than Rhode Island, much closer to the elite of the Atlantic 10 Conference - Dayton and Loyola of Chicago - than below .500 where Rhode Island resides. |
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02-20-24 | Wyoming +14.5 v. Nevada | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night. |
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02-20-24 | UCF v. West Virginia +2.5 | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
UCF is 1-5 in its last six games and shouldn't be laying points on the road to West Virginia. The Mountaineers are finally healthy and have proven themselves at home having knocked off then No. 3 Kansas. |
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02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | 60-62 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
I find this line to be off. Bowling Green was a whooping nine-point home favorite against Central Michigan on Feb. 3. Central Michigan upset Bowling Green, 77-76 in overtime. The Chippewas shot 51 percent from the floor in that game. Bowling Green had a terrible shooting game making only 33 percent of their field goals, 66 percent of their free throws and missing 33 of 40 shots from beyond the arc. |
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02-19-24 | Iowa State +9.5 v. Houston | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars. |
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02-18-24 | Canisius -2.5 v. Siena | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country. |
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02-17-24 | NC State +8 v. Clemson | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
The ACC has a tendency to bring down teams that are riding high. It's that competitive and prideful of a conference loaded with quality teams. |
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02-17-24 | Indiana State -4.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday. |
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02-17-24 | Cal-Riverside v. UC-Davis -5 | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
UC Davis is the better all-around team. The Aggies are home and in stop-the-pain mode with two straight losses.  Cal-Riverside is two things - unable to win on the road and a terrible shooting team.  The Highlanders are 1-12 in their away games. They average fewer than 70 points per game and rank 357th in field goal percentage at 39 percent.Â
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02-17-24 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 135.5 | 76-74 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
There were only 125 points scored in Cincinnati's, 68-57, home win against UCF on Jan. 27. Expect a similar low-scoring game in this rematch.   Both teams surrender fewer than 67 points per game and play at a slow tempo. The Bearcats excel in blocked shots percentage and defensive rebounding. UCF's defensive strength is its interior defense.  The Knights are one of the poorest shooting teams in the country. They rank last in the Big 12 in shooting percentage.Â
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02-17-24 | Marquette v. Connecticut -6 | 53-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
I don't see top-ranked Connecticut losing to Marquette at home. The Huskies have won 13 in a row and haven't forgotten how Marquette knocked them out of the Big East Conference Tournament last season. |
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02-16-24 | Siena v. St. Peter's -9 | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is an 11-11 average team that is in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak following a 64-62 home loss to Fairfield, the second-best team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Peacocks did cover that game, though, as 3 1/2-point 'dogs. |
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02-16-24 | Jacksonville v. Queens NC -1.5 | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Queens is 9-3 at home. Jacksonville is 2-12 in true road games. |
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02-16-24 | Brown v. Princeton -12.5 | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark. |
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02-15-24 | NJIT v. Albany OVER 152 | 58-83 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Albany is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 334th. The Great Danes, though, average 78 points and play high-scoring games at home. All but one of their seven home contests have gone Over the total.  The combined total of Albany's last five home games have been 216 points, 187, 173, 170 and 172.  New Jersey Tech is a below average defensive team that has problems guarding the 3-point shot.Â
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup. |
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02-14-24 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Clemson | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Clemson returns home after posting impressive road victories against North Carolina and Syracuse. But the Tigers haven't played well at home and have had matchup problems against Miami.Â
Clemson is 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. One of those losses was to Georgia Tech as an 11 1/2-point favorite. The Tigers only defeated Louisville by six at home as a 16 1/2-point favorite. The Tigers are playing their first home game in 11 days. Miami is 1-3 in its last four games, but nearly beat North Carolina at home this past Saturday losing, 75-72. The Hurricanes have defeated Clemson in the last four meetings, including 95-82 on Jan. 3. |
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02-13-24 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia -6.5 | 74-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh upset Virginia when these teams last met last season. The Cavaliers won't let it happen again, especially at home where they are 13-0. Virginia, in fact, has the longest home winning streak in NCAA Division I with 23 straight victories. Pittsburgh is fat and happy riding a three-game win streak. Two of those wins were in a favorite's role against Notre Dame and Wake Forest. The Panthers' 3-point defense is showing signs of regression. That could prove crucial as the Cavaliers' strengths are their third-ranked defense and 15th-ranked 3-point shooting percentage. During the past four weeks, the Cavaliers are the fifth-hottest shooting 3-point team. |
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02-13-24 | Duquesne v. Dayton -8.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers. |
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02-11-24 | Penn State +8.5 v. Northwestern | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Northwestern is laying too many points here against a hot Penn State team that has won and covered its last three games, beating Rutgers and Indiana on the road and Iowa at home. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. |
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02-10-24 | Providence v. Butler -3.5 | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Providence defeated Butler, 85-75, in overtime on Dec. 23. Much has changed since then. Butler is the better team. |
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02-10-24 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -11 | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Before the season, the SEC media picked Vanderbilt to finish 11th in the conference and South Carolina to place last. Vanderbilt has held true to that prediction with a 1-8 SEC mark. |
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02-10-24 | Creighton v. Xavier +1.5 | 78-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Xavier is playing well and in revenge mode for an 85-78 road loss to Creighton on Jan. 23. |
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02-09-24 | Dayton -1.5 v. VCU | Top | 47-49 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers. |
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02-08-24 | Washington State v. Oregon State +9 | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Forget Oregon State being just 3-8 in the Pac-12 Conference and 11-11 overall. The Beavers are much stronger when playing at home. They are 11-2 at Gill Coliseum. One of the victories was an 83-80 win against then ninth-ranked Arizona on Jan. 25. The Beavers were 18 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. |
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02-07-24 | Furman -2.5 v. Mercer | 69-78 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Furman is in better form than Mercer and has too much offense for the Bears to stay close. |
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02-06-24 | St. Mary's v. Pacific +21.5 | 84-43 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Saint Mary's probably could name its score. The Gaels did that when these two teams met on Jan. 25. The Gaels embarrassed Pacific, 76-28. |
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02-06-24 | Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years. |
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02-05-24 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Fresh off a 78-65 home victory against fourth-ranked Houston, Kansas is looking good. But now the Jayhawks find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. They have to travel to Kansas State for this in-state, Big 12 Conference rivalry matchup. |
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02-03-24 | St. Mary's +4.5 v. Gonzaga | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced Gonzaga is better than Saint Mary's so I'm taking these many points. The Bulldogs have fewer wins than Saint Mary's and have battled inconsistency. Saint Mary's is in top form winning 14 of its last 15 games, including nine in a row. |
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02-03-24 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus. |
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02-03-24 | Weber State +2 v. Northern Colorado | 82-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a power ratings play. These teams have similar records, but I have Weber State as the superior team. So I will back the underdog. Weber State ranks 65th in the nation defensively holding foes to 65.2 points per game. That's remarkable for a Big Sky Conference team. Northern Colorado has had some high-scoring games in its last few games, but the Bears have played weak competition during this span. They rank 326th defensively allowing 78.2 points per game. |
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02-03-24 | Houston v. Kansas +1.5 | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Maybe it's a sucker's play. But I'm not going to turn down Kansas as a home underdog to Houston. The last time the Jayhawks were an underdog in Allen Fieldhouse was 2021 when they rolled past future national champion Baylor, 71-58. |
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02-03-24 | The Citadel +7.5 v. East Tennessee State | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
East Tennessee State has only been favored once in its last eight games. That was against VMI. The Buccaneers were 10 1/2-point chalk and ended up winning by one point. |
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02-02-24 | Siena v. Rider -10.5 | 50-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Siena is 3-17 and tied for last in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 2-7 mark. However, one of the Saints' victories came against Rider. |
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02-02-24 | Quinnipiac -6.5 v. Manhattan | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Manhattan is one of the worst teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Jaspers don't have much of a home-court edge and are weak both offensively and defensively where they have permitted at least 81 points in three of their last four games. |
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02-01-24 | Appalachian State v. Georgia State +6 | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm going to buy low on Georgia State. The Panthers have lost four in a row to drop below .500 on the season. Those four defeats, though, all came on the road. Georgia State is 6-1 at home, including winning its last six home games. |
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02-01-24 | Albany v. Vermont UNDER 148 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Albany is a high-scoring, up-tempo team with a weak defense. Vermont is just the opposite. The Catamounts rank 23rd in the nation defensively. They've held their last four foes to an average of 58.5 points. |
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01-31-24 | Furman v. The Citadel +7.5 | 82-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Furman is a high-scoring team, but this is too many points for the Paladins to lay on the road. |
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01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -1.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. |
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01-30-24 | Marquette v. Villanova -125 | 85-80 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Villanova needs this game much more than Marquette. The Wildcats are in serious stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. |
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01-27-24 | Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31. |
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01-27-24 | Princeton -140 v. Cornell | 68-83 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
These are the two best teams in the Ivy League. I like Princeton to get the victory here. The Tigers are 15-1, including 8-1 on the road. Princeton has covered 64 percent of its lined games, while Cornell has a losing ATS mark. Princeton has the better defense limiting foes to 63.2 points a game, ranks third in the nation in free throw percentage and commits few turnovers. Cornell, by contrast, gives up 75.8 points a game.Â
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