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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored. |
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04-15-24 | Canadiens v. Red Wings -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
I see the Red Wings winning this game by multiple goals. It's Detroit's final regular season home game and the Red Wings are fired-up after upsetting the Maple Leafs on the road this past Saturday. That dramatic overtime victory keep the Red Wings' playoff hopes alive. The Canadiens are 1-5 in their last six games and out of playoff contention. |
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04-14-24 | Lakers +3.5 v. Pelicans | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31.  That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role.  The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty. |
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04-12-24 | Bulls v. Wizards +2 | Top | 129-127 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards? (Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.)Â |
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04-11-24 | Bulls -9.5 v. Pistons | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, who have incentive to host the Hawks in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. |
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04-11-24 | Flyers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The Rangers have dominated this series going 9-0-1 during the past 10 meetings, including beating the Flyers the past six times.
New York is trying to win its division and won't lack motivation especially after losing to the Devils two days ago. This is more of a fade against Philadelphia, though. The Flyers have lost eight straight games with six of the defeats occurring by multiple goals. The Flyers have been outscored by 24 goals during their eight-game losing streak. |
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04-09-24 | Wizards +16.5 v. Wolves | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are tied with the Nuggets for the top spot in the Western Conference. Minnesota plays in Denver against the Nuggets on Wednesday in a huge national TV (ESPN) matchup. |
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04-09-24 | Knicks v. Bulls +5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
I find value in this line considering the Knicks were minus 1 1/2 against the Bulls in Chicago last Friday. The Bulls won that game, 108-100, despite the Knicks shooting better from 3-point range and getting eight more free throw attempts than Chicago.
The Knicks haven't been at the top of their game. They are 2-4 in their last six games. I don't put a whole lot of stock into their 122-109 road win against the Bucks, who have lost four in a row including losses to the Wizards, Raptors and Grizzlies. |
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04-09-24 | Magic -3 v. Rockets | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Orlando is a bit banged-up, but this is a short number for the Magic to lay against a dead Rockets team. |
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04-09-24 | Heat -3.5 v. Hawks | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Driven by trying to gain an automatic playoff berth and revenge, Miami should cover this short road number. |
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04-09-24 | Pistons +16.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
It's a bonus if Cade Cunningham is available to play. He's questionable after missing the last three games due to knee soreness. |
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04-06-24 | Hawks v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 110-142 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
By virtue of winning six of their last eight games, the Hawks have clinched a play-in berth. So they don't have huge incentive here. |
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04-05-24 | Kings +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I understand the Kings just blew a 21-point lead in suffering a 120-109 road loss to the Knicks Thursday night. |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Sparked by Joel Embiid's return after missing nine weeks due to knee surgery, the 76ers beat the Thunder, 109-105, at home on Tuesday. The 76ers are going to be careful with Embiid. This is going to be a much tougher task for the 76ers playing the Heat in Miami. It's Philadelphia's fourth straight different venue. |
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04-03-24 | Pistons +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
The Hawks are riding high after an important, 113-101, win against the Bulls two days ago. The Hawks are at the Mavericks on Thursday night in a challenging matchup. |
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04-02-24 | Lakers v. Raptors +12.5 | 128-111 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Yeah, I know. It's tough to get behind the Raptors, losers of 13 in a row.  But the Lakers carry a high fatigue rating, are in a letdown spot, the Raptors could get key players back and have a strong history against the Lakers.  Maybe it's because of LeBron James. But the Raptors get up for the Lakers. They've beaten them seven of the last nine times in Toronto. The Lakers barely beat the Raptors in the first meeting. LA won, 132-131, at home on Jan. 9.  There's a good possibility the Raptors get back both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for this game. They've been out for personal reasons.  This is the Lakers' fifth road game in eight days. They are 6-1 in their last seven games and conclude their road trip with a game tomorrow against the Wizards.Â
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03-31-24 | Bulls +8 v. Wolves | Top | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The timing is right for the Bulls to cover this road number - if not pull off a surprising upset. |
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03-30-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Hawks | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Hawks still may not have come down to Earth after beating the Celtics in overtime as a 16-point 'dog two days ago. Atlanta is fat and happy with four consecutive victories. |
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03-29-24 | Duke +4 v. Houston | 54-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Betting on ACC teams during the NCAA Tournament has been a gold mine. ACC teams are 9-1 SU, 8-1-1 ATS with Duke contributing a 2-0 SU and ATS mark.  The Blue Devils are strong both on offense and defense. The same can't be said for Houston. The Cougars may have the best defense in the country, but their offense was below average. It ranked 165th in scoring, 240th in field goal percentage and 298th in free throw percentage.  Duke has a top-20 defense going by Ken Pom's advanced metrics and averages six points more per game than Houston. The Blue Devils have an elite big man, Kyle Filipowski, and three excellent guards. Houston can't match that offensively.  While the Blue Devils destroyed James Madison, 93-55, in the second round, Houston barely survived. The Cougars needed overtime to slip past Texas A&M after blowing a 13-point lead with under four minutes to play in regulation.Â
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03-29-24 | Lakers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
The teams met just six days ago in LA. The Lakers won a wild, 150-145, shootout. But it wasn't so much the Lakers winning that irked the Pacers, it was how Los Angeles prevailed. |
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03-27-24 | Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks | 106-120 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago.  Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.Â
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 133-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat.  Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.Â
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03-25-24 | Chicago State v. Fairfield -5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante. |
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03-22-24 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Nebraska | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday. |
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03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them. Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona.  South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games. |
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03-21-24 | Morehead State +12 v. Illinois | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't like Illinois' track record in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have failed to get through the first weekend of the tournament during their last three appearances. Illinois gets worn down, which could be the case again this season after beating Wisconsin in the always-physical Big Ten Conference Tournament.  The Illini have a potential superstar guard in Terrence Shannon Jr. Morehead State, however, has a very strong backcourt, too, with Riley Minix, Drew Thelwell and Kalil Thomas. Minix was the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds. Thelwell holds the school's single-season assist record while Thomas ranked in the top 20 nationally with 103 3-pointers this season.  The Eagles enter this matchup with a six-game win streak and being very underrated.Â
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03-20-24 | Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C. |
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03-20-24 | Heat +2.5 v. Cavs | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, the Heat rank better giving up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. Cleveland gives up the sixth-fewest points. |
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03-19-24 | Pelicans -7 v. Nets | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are a play-on team. The Nets definitely are not. |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Wagner and Howard meet in this play-in NCAA Tournament game. Power ratings-wise, I have Howard as more than a 3-point favorite. So I'll be on the Bison.
Wagner finished 7-9 in the Northeast Conference, but got hot in the conference tournament. The Seahawks finished the conference tournament title game with just seven healthy players. The Seahawks average just 63.1 points a game and rank 358th in field goal percentage. Howard has the better record and the top player on the court in Bryce Harris, who led the team in scoring and rebounding. |
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03-18-24 | Cavs +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line. |
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03-17-24 | Raptors +13 v. Magic | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
This is the most points Orlando has been favored by all season. It's not justified.
These two teams just met two days ago in Toronto. The Magic won, 113-103, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Orlando shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 19 of 22 free throws. Toronto shot 47 percent from the floor and made only 13 of 20 free throws for 65 percent. The Raptors make 74.6 percent of their free throws on the season. Yet the point spread opened nearly double from Friday. The Raptors are in the grip of a season-worst six-game losing streak. But let's look at Toronto's past five games: The Raptors lost by seven points on the road to the Suns. They lost in overtime on the road to the Trail Blazers. They easily covered on the road against the sizzling Nuggets losing by only six points before suffering a letdown loss to the Pistons and then to the Magic. This is short revenge for the Raptors so they shouldn't lack effort and motivation. |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday. |
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03-16-24 | Blazers +13.5 v. Pelicans | 107-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Portland has the second-worst record in the Western Conference. But the Trail Blazers are having a strong March by a point spread standard going 6-2-1 ATS. |
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03-16-24 | New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
I like New Mexico to upset San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game. |
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03-16-24 | UMass Lowell v. Vermont -7 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is the finals of the America East Conference Tournament and the deck is stacked in Vermont's favor. The venue is the Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT. That is the Catamounts' home floor where they are 44-2 since the start of 2021-22 season. Vermont has won 32 straight conference games at home.  |
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03-15-24 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee -10 | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Tennessee beat every team in the SEC except one on its way to capturing the regular-season title. The one team the Volunteers lost to happened to be Mississippi State. |
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03-14-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now. |
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03-14-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. Bulls | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I want the Clippers going for me as they hit the road following home losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves. No shame in losing to those two elite teams, although the Clippers blew an 18-point lead vs the Timberwolves. |
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03-14-24 | Providence v. Creighton -8 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Creighton is at its finest when it comes to the best time to peak - in March. The Bluejays have covered 82 percent of their past 17 March games. I like the Bluejays to roll past Providence by double-digits. |
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03-13-24 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are a top-five defensive team and shouldn't lack motivation taking to the road after consecutive home losses to the Suns and Nets. Cleveland has injuries, but also depth. |
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03-13-24 | Bulls +4 v. Pacers | Top | 132-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday. |
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03-13-24 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -6 | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset home win against Florida. But even though Arkansas has had a disappointing season, I don't see the Commodores hanging in against the Razorbacks. |
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03-12-24 | Florida International v. Jacksonville State -4 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a matchup of the bottom two teams in Conference USA. But it has a clear right side - Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks won and covered both regular-season games against Florida International out-rebounding the Panthers by 27 boards.Â
Jacksonville State's strength is its 32nd-ranked defense that yields just 66.1 points a game. FIU has no strengths. The Panthers are a below average shooting team, terrible from the free throw line and give up 10 more points per game than Jacksonville State. The Panthers rank 349th in defensive field goal percentage and 369th in 3-point defense. FIU is not in good form having dropped 10 of its last 13 games. |
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03-11-24 | Tex A&M Commerce v. Nicholls State -5.5 | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Nicholls State is the better team and in better form than Texas A&M Commerce in this Southland Conference Tournament game.  Texas A&M Commerce has been terrible in an underdog role. The Lions are 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times they've been an underdog of more than one point. They are a bad shooting team and are bad, too, in defensive field goal percentage ranking 300th.  Nicholls State went 2-0 vs the Lions during the regular season, winning the most recent matchup, 85-70, at home on Feb. 24.Â
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03-11-24 | Warriors -4 v. Spurs | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer. |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
The term fat and happy hasn't been used to describe the Washington Wizards in a long time. But that's what the Wizards finally are after snapping a horrendous 16-game losing streak by beating the equally bad Hornets, 112-100, at home in their last game this past Friday.  Miami is anything but fat and happy. Try mad and motivated. The Heat return home off back-to-back road losses to the Mavericks and Thunder. The Heat had Saturday to rest after falling to the Thunder this past Friday. Miami won't play again until Wednesday so expect a full and focused effort against the Wizards.  "We'll get better from this," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said following the losses to Dallas and Oklahoma City.  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are getting new-found help in the rotation from rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. and recently acquired veteran Patty Mills.  The Wizards have lost their past eight road games, getting blown out in four of their past five away contests.Â
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03-09-24 | Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread. |
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03-09-24 | Colorado v. Oregon State +8 | 73-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
It's tough to beat both Oregon and Oregon State on the road in the span of three days. Colorado accomplished the first task defeating Oregon, 79-75, this past Thursday. That win clinched third place in the Pac-12 standings and earned the Buffaloes a first round bye in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. |
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03-08-24 | Ball State +5 v. Bowling Green | 70-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I like Ball State's current form. The Cardinals have been underdogs three times in their last five games. They've won each of those games beating Northern Illinois and Central Michigan on the road. Then this past Tuesday, the Cardinals upset Kent, 76-69, as a 3-point home 'dog. |
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03-07-24 | Spurs +11 v. Kings | 129-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Since Jan. 29, the Kings have been favored by 6 1/2 or more points five times. They are 0-5 ATS in those games with two outright losses. Now the Kings are laying double-digits in a flat spot after a huge home underdog victory against the Lakers last night. Sacramento rallied from an early 19-point deficit to beat the Lakers, 130-120. |
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03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors -4 | Top | 90-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
Regardless if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or doesn't, I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Bucks. |
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03-06-24 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Le Moyne -3.5 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
I trust Le Moyne's defense much more than Fairleigh Dickinson's offense in this Northeast Conference Tournament matchup. |
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03-06-24 | Villanova v. Seton Hall | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Villanova is in good shape for an NCAA Tournament bid. Seton Hall isn't - unless it wins here. I believe the Pirates will accomplish that. |
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03-04-24 | Delaware State v. Howard -4 | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
Howard is in excellent form winning five of its last six games, including three in a row.The Bison average four more points per game than Delaware State and can exploit the Hornets' porous 3-point defense, which ranks 338th. |
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03-03-24 | Pacers -6 v. Spurs | 105-117 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
It wasn't just the Pacers losing on the road to the Pelicans this past Friday. It was how they lost. New Orleans thoroughly embarrassed the Pacers beating them, 129-102. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton, an emerging superstar, was held scoreless. |
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03-03-24 | Warriors +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-140 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
I don't get this line. Yeah the Celtics have won 10 in a row and own the best home record in the NBA at 28-3. But the Warriors are much improved from earlier in the season and playing their best ball. |
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03-03-24 | Indiana +9 v. Maryland | 83-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Maryland ranks 332nd in field goal percentage, is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten Conference and its home mystique has been shattered with losses to Rutgers and Northwestern. |
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03-02-24 | Kansas State +6.5 v. Cincinnati | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Kansas State is coming on and Cincinnati is reeling. So this is a generous amount of points to back the Wildcats in an important game for both teams that should feature lots of intensity. |
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03-02-24 | Hawks +2 v. Nets | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Even without injured Trae Young, the Hawks are better than the Nets. So I want Atlanta in rapid revenge after the Nets embarrassed the Hawks, 124-97, at home this past Thursday. |
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03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Lafayette is home, in a revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. It says a lot that the oddsmaker has opened the Ragin' Cajuns such a strong favorite against Southern Mississippi. I agree with their assessment. I see the Ragin' Cajuns winning by double-digits as three of their past four four losses have come on the road. |
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03-01-24 | Warriors v. Raptors +3.5 | 120-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
First off, Toronto is more than capable of beating Golden State straight-up. The Raptors did just that in convincing style, 133-118, at Golden State on Jan. 7. |
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03-01-24 | Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist | Top | 55-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team. |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +4 | 86-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Gonzaga is back in the Associated Press Top 25 ranking 23rd. But this isn't the elite Gonzaga team of previous years. They are overpriced against San Francisco, which is 7-1 in its last eight games and 13-1 at home. |
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02-29-24 | Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 131-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The good news for the Lakers is they are off their best comeback win of the season. They came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to upset their in-city, division rival the Clippers, 116-112, last night. LeBron James led the rally scoring 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter. |
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02-28-24 | Minnesota +11.5 v. Illinois | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
You wouldn't know it from their last game, a bad 18-point loss to Nebraska this past Sunday. But the Minnesota Gophers own the best point spread mark in college basketball at 23-4 (85 percent). |
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02-27-24 | Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada. |
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02-27-24 | Pelicans -3 v. Knicks | 115-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I like the Pelicans to cover against the Knicks even if Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum can't play. Both are listed as questionable. The Knicks, for sure, won't have two of their key players with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby both out.
The Knicks are only 3-6 in their last nine games. That record would be 2-7 if the Knicks didn't score a late basket to nip the last-place Pistons, 113-111, at home last night. The Knicks were lucky to win that game when the officials missed an obvious late-game foul that wasn't called. The Pelicans come to New York in a bad mood after losing, 114-106, to the Bulls at home two days ago blowing a 12-point late third quarter lead. New Orleans is just as good on the road as it is at home with identical 17-12 records. New Orleans has won five of its last six away games. |
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02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard -13 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Howard is a mediocre MEAC team. But the Bison are vastly superior to Coppin State, which is 2-22 and has lost 15 of its last 16 games. |
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02-25-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +1 | Top | 119-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets. |
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02-25-24 | Siena +16 v. Fairfield | 64-88 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Siena has been an easy fade as the Saints are one of the worst teams in college basketball with a 4-22 record, including 3-12 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. |
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02-24-24 | CS-Northridge +2.5 v. CS-Fullerton | 65-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Even though Cal-State Fullerton is playing at home, it's a surprise the Titans are favored. Cal-Northridge is the superior team. |
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02-24-24 | Magic v. Pistons +8 | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Orlando is one of the more improved teams this season. The Magic came out of All-Star break with an impressive, 116-109, road win against the Cavaliers two days ago. |
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02-24-24 | Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row. |
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02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2.5 | 85-81 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Quinnipiac is 10-2 in its last dozen games, but coming off an embarrassing home to Niagara. The Bobcats are superior to Fairfield, which is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, and the price is low enough to back them. |
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02-23-24 | Wizards +16 v. Thunder | 106-147 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Emerging Oklahoma City wanted to make a statement coming out of the All-Star break. Statement made as the Thunder impressively buried the Clippers, 129-107, at home Thursday night. Now the Thunder face a far less daunting foe - the Wizards. It's a flat spot for the Thunder. So I'm going to hold my nose and back the Wizards getting this many points.  Washington has lost nine in a row, including suffering a 130-110 road loss to Denver last night. The Wizards, though, have a winning point spread mark in their last 11 games. They hosted the Thunder on Jan. 8 and lost by eight points, 136-128.Â
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02-22-24 | Troy State +2.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. |
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02-22-24 | Pistons +11.5 v. Pacers | 115-129 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
There's a certain randomness factor when NBA teams haven't played in eight days like these two teams. Randomness is good when backing an underdog in this high of a point range. |
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02-22-24 | College of Charleston v. Delaware +2 | 90-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
College of Charleston has a better record than Delaware, but I don't see the Cougars winning this game. |
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02-22-24 | Hampton +9.5 v. Campbell | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Hampton was a 3 1/2-point favorite when it hosted Campbell back on Jan. 6. Even though Campbell won, 80-69, I find this point spread too high. Hampton has a winning ATS mark in its last six games. The Pirates have lost by more than six points twice in their last seven games. They are 6-2 ATS the last eight times when getting three or more points.  Campbell is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Fighting Camels have been favored by more than four points only once all season. That was against 9-16 Morgan State.Â
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02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV. |
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02-21-24 | Richmond -4 v. Rhode Island | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Richmond is a couple of levels higher than Rhode Island, much closer to the elite of the Atlantic 10 Conference - Dayton and Loyola of Chicago - than below .500 where Rhode Island resides. |
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02-20-24 | Wyoming +14.5 v. Nevada | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night. |
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02-20-24 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Having gone just 9-9-1-5 in LA, the Kings have burned the most money at home of any team in the NHL. |
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02-20-24 | UCF v. West Virginia +2.5 | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
UCF is 1-5 in its last six games and shouldn't be laying points on the road to West Virginia. The Mountaineers are finally healthy and have proven themselves at home having knocked off then No. 3 Kansas. |
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02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | 60-62 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
I find this line to be off. Bowling Green was a whooping nine-point home favorite against Central Michigan on Feb. 3. Central Michigan upset Bowling Green, 77-76 in overtime. The Chippewas shot 51 percent from the floor in that game. Bowling Green had a terrible shooting game making only 33 percent of their field goals, 66 percent of their free throws and missing 33 of 40 shots from beyond the arc. |
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02-19-24 | Iowa State +9.5 v. Houston | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars. |
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02-18-24 | Canisius -2.5 v. Siena | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country. |
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02-17-24 | NC State +8 v. Clemson | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
The ACC has a tendency to bring down teams that are riding high. It's that competitive and prideful of a conference loaded with quality teams. |
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02-17-24 | Indiana State -4.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday. |
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02-17-24 | Cal-Riverside v. UC-Davis -5 | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
UC Davis is the better all-around team. The Aggies are home and in stop-the-pain mode with two straight losses.  Cal-Riverside is two things - unable to win on the road and a terrible shooting team.  The Highlanders are 1-12 in their away games. They average fewer than 70 points per game and rank 357th in field goal percentage at 39 percent.Â
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02-17-24 | Marquette v. Connecticut -6 | 53-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
I don't see top-ranked Connecticut losing to Marquette at home. The Huskies have won 13 in a row and haven't forgotten how Marquette knocked them out of the Big East Conference Tournament last season. |
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02-16-24 | Brown v. Princeton -12.5 | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark. |
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02-16-24 | Siena v. St. Peter's -9 | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is an 11-11 average team that is in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak following a 64-62 home loss to Fairfield, the second-best team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Peacocks did cover that game, though, as 3 1/2-point 'dogs. |
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02-16-24 | Jacksonville v. Queens NC -1.5 | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Queens is 9-3 at home. Jacksonville is 2-12 in true road games. |
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup. |
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