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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills OVER 46 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 11 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills OVER the total. Last week, the Chiefs held the high-octane Miami Dolphins' offense -- which was averaging 29 ppg -- to just 7 points. And that game went under the total of 43.5. But NFL teams that hold a Playoff opponent to 20+ points less than their scoring average (and went Under the total in that win), have proceeded to go 12-0 OVER the total in their next game. Moreover, after its 31-17 win against the Steelers, Buffalo's home playoff games have now gone 11-1 Over when the line was 48 or less points. Take the Chiefs and Bills Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 48 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 131 h 40 m | Show |
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Bucs to go OVER the total. This game will be played at Ford Field, which is an enclosed stadium. And enclosed stadia tend to be higher scoring as they're not exposed to the (sometimes) inclement weather, and have gone Over the total 59.5 percent since 1980. That's one reason I favor a high-scoring game. Another is that Detroit has gone 18-2 Over at home if it wasn't off a game which went Over the total (including 12-0 Over if the O/U line was 47+ points). Take the Lions and Bucs Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 43 | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go OVER the total. Last week, the Tampa Bay Bucs won, 9-0, at Carolina. Off that extremely low scoring game, we'll look for a bounce higher tonight. Indeed, NFL games have gone OVER the total 62-40-3 when the line was < 46 points, if a team's prior game totaled less than 14 points (including 4-1 Over in the Playoffs). Likewise, Tampa has gone Over the total 16 of 21 at home following a low-scoring game which totaled 28 points or less. Finally, the Eagles are 31-11 Over the total when the line was 44 < points, if the Eagles scored less than 24 points in their previous game. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total. The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range. This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward. I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over. Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less. Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-24 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 50 | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 106 h 40 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Buffalo/Miami game. Buffalo has been installed as a road favorite. And it's 8-0 Under its last eight as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Miami is 42-21 Under at home when playing with revenge. Take the Under. |
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01-07-24 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 35 | Top | 13-12 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers to go Over the total. The Chiefs are not incentivized to win, so they will turn to QB Blaine Gabbert to line up under center for this game, while Patrick Mahomes will be on the sidelines. The line has been adjusted, of course, to compensate for the players who won't be available, but I think there's significant value now on the Over, as it falls into a 24-4 Totals system of mine. Additionally, the Chargers have gone Over the total 14 of the last 17 years in their final game, while KC has gone 6-2 Over in their final road game. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-24 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 42 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Atlanta/New Orleans game. The Over falls into a 67-36 Totals system of mine, and I look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Take the Over. |
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01-07-24 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 37.5 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game. The Panthers and Buccaneers both played poorly on offense last week. Carolina was shutout, 26-0, by Jacksonville, while Tampa mustered just 13 points in a 10-point home loss to New Orleans. I expect a higher scoring game this week, as NFL games tend to go over the total more often than not when both teams scored less than 14 points in their previous game. And the Over also falls into a 109-58 Totals system of mine. Take Carolina/Tampa Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-06-24 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-19 | Win | 100 | 62 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans Under the total. These two teams met earlier this season. The Over/Under for that game was just 40 points. And it went over the total, as the two teams combined to score 51. This O/U line is significantly higher than the first meeting. I think it's too high. The Indianapolis Colts have not played a game with an Over/Under line this high in any of their last 30 games. And the Texans have only played two games this season with an over/under line north of 47 points. Both of those were 48, and Houston went under the total in each game. The Texans are 10-6 Under this season, and are 46-35 Under when the line was greater than 47 points. And the Colts are 86-59 under at home vs. division rivals, including 26-15 Under if the season's first meeting went Over the total. Take the Under. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-23 | 49ers v. Commanders UNDER 49 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 100 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Washington/San Francisco game. The Washington Commanders have been installed as a 2-touchdown home underdog. And they’ve gone under 67% as home dogs of more than 1 point when the O/U line was greater than 45. That bodes well for the Under in this game. As does the fact that home dogs of +7 or more points have gone 66-35 Under in the 2nd half of the season when the line was 47 or more points. Take the Under.
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys UNDER 53.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 84 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Under in the Detroit/Dallas game. The Lions come into this game off back to back Overs, as they blew out Denver, 42-17, and won at Minnesota, 30-24. But off those two high-scoring games, we'll take the Under on Saturday night, as Detroit has gone 62-42 Under off back to back Overs, including 8-0 UNDER when the O/U line was 52+ points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-23 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 40 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders Over the total. We played on each of these teams to go over the total last week, and cashed both, as the Raiders put up 63 points in a 63-21 win over the Chargers, while the Chiefs tallied 27 in a 27-17 victory over New England. We'll come right back with the Over in this divisional matchup on Christmas Day as it falls into 67-35 and 109-57 Totals systems of mine. Additionally, six of the last seven meetings between these two rivals have gone OVER the total. And those seven games have averaged 57.28 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-23 | Commanders v. Jets UNDER 37.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Washington Commanders Under the total. Both of these teams come into this game with sub-.400 records. The Jets are 5-9, while the Commanders are 4-10. Late in the season, when two awful teams match-up, the games tend to be low-scoring, and have gone under the total 57.7% since 1980. Additionally, the Jets were shutout, 30-0, at Miami last weekend. And NFL teams off shutout losses have gone 42-27 under their last 69. Take the under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams OVER 45.5 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Orleans/Los Angeles game. This game is a technical play, as it falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 65% over the last 44 seasons, as well as a 59% system. Additionally, the Saints have held their last two opponents to 6 points each. And NFL teams that have given up less than 13 points in their two previous games have gone 148-121-7 OVER. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks UNDER 48 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks Under the total. The Eagles' defense has not played well the last three weeks, as it's given up 34, 42 and 33 points. Off those three dismal performance, we'll take the Eagles and Seahawks to go under the total, as NFL teams that gave up more than 30 points in each of their 3 previous games have gone Under the total 59.5% since 1980. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Rams Under the total. The Commanders had last week off to rest, and regroup after 4 straight losses where they gave up more than 28 points. They lost 29-26 at Seattle. Then the New York Giants upset them, 31-19. On Thanksgiving, Dallas blew them out, 45-10, while Miami put up 45 in a 30-point win two weeks ago.  All four of those games went Over the total. I like the Under in this game, as teams off 3 straight Overs where they gave up more than 30 points in each of those three games, have then gone under the total 60% since 1980. Meanwhile, the Rams had a high-scoring game at Baltimore last Sunday. But Los Angeles is 14-3-1 Under following a game that went Over the total, including 11-0 Under if the O/U line was greater than 42 points. Take the Under. |
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12-17-23 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 34.5 | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -112 | 100 h 37 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Atlanta game. The first meeting between these NFC South division rivals was low-scoring, with just 34 point scored (Atlanta won, 24-10). Since 1980, subsequent meetings between division rivals have gone Over the total 55% if the prior meeting totaled less than 36 points. Take the Falcons and Panthers Over the total. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 37 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 6 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New England/Kansas City game. After scoring just 13 points over its three previous games, the New England offense broke out (for it, anyway) in a big way last Thursday. It scored 21 first-half points, and coasted to a 21-18 victory in a game which went "over' by halftime. We played on the Over in that Patriots/Steelers game, and will come right back with the Over in this Patriots/Chiefs game, as the number is still too low, by my math. The Chiefs are also 24-10 Over their last 34 as road favorites of more than 6 points. Take the Over. |
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12-17-23 | Giants v. Saints OVER 38 | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New York Giants/New Orleans Saints game. The Giants had their 2nd best offensive performance of the season, in terms of yards gained, this past Monday. New York rolled up 367 yards of offense, and tallied 24 points in an upset win of Green Bay. That game easily went over the posted total of 37.5, and that was the 3rd time in its last four games that New York went Over the total (after playing 7 unders in a row prior to that). New Orleans has had a similar arc. After starting the season with 6 straight unders, it has now played Overs in four of its last seven. We'll ride the current momentum, and look for another high-scoring game here. Take the Giants and Saints Over the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-14-23 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 34 | Top | 21-63 | Win | 100 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the OVER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Chargers lost quarterback Justin Herbert for the rest of the season, so Easton Stick will get the start on Thursday night. Prior to last week's games, the Over/Under line on this game was projected to be 42.5, but the number has been significantly adjusted after the results of the Chargers' 24-7 loss to Denver, and the Raiders' 3-0 loss to the Vikings. I think the adjustment has been too severe. We will take the Over, as NFL games have gone Over the total 59% of the time, if each team's previous game went under, and each scored less than 10 points in its prior game. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 52 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 86 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Dallas/Philadelphia game. The Eagles were destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers last week, 42-19. We'll take the Philadelphia/Dallas game under the total, as the Eagles have gone 64-27 Under following a game which totaled 58 or more points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-10-23 | Broncos v. Chargers OVER 44 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -108 | 82 h 12 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Denver/Los Angeles game. The Chargers went into Foxborough last Sunday and shut out the New England Patriots, 6-0. That was the 3rd straight Under played by the Chargers, and those three games totaled 79 points combined. I like the Over in this game, as teams off 3 straight unders, in 3 games that combined for 79 or less points, have proceeded to go over the total 65.2% of the time. Take the Broncos and Chargers Over the total. |
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12-10-23 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions Under the total. These two teams played a couple of weeks ago, and the Lions won, 31-26. That game was played at Detroit's Ford Field, which is a covered stadium, so the teams were not impacted by weather. This Sunday, the weather outlook calls for 10 to 15 mile per hour winds, and 35 degree weather, which will contribute to a much lower-scoring game than the first meeting. The Bears have gone 28-12 Under at home in the final 5 games of the season (when Chicago weather is at its worst), when the O/U line ranged from 39 to 48. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers OVER 30 | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots Over the total. The Over/Under in this game has been installed around 30 points, which is the lowest over/under number this season. Historically, NFL games with over/under lines less than 31 have gone Over the total, as they've gone Over 82 percent since 1982. Usually, when the Over/Under lines get down this low, it's due to weather. Here, it's because of the Patriots' horrible offense. New England has scored just 13 points over its three previous games. But teams that have scored a combined 25 or less points over their previous 3 games, all of which have gone Under the total, have then proceeded to go over the total 76 of 128 games, or 59.3%. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-23 | Lions v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New Orleans/Detroit game. The Lions were upset last week at home as a 9-point favorite vs. Green Bay. We'll take the Under in their game at New Orleans, as road favorites of -4 (or more) points, off an upset loss as a 7-point (or greater) favorite, have gone 9-1 under their last 10 (and 52-29-1 under their last 82). Take the Saints/Lions Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-23 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 39 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers to go OVER the total. The Chargers come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, and will need to reel off six straight wins, if they're to have any hope of making the playoffs. Los Angeles is 39-17 Over the total on the road off back to back losses, and I look for a relatively high scoring game today. Take the Over. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 48 | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 97 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers Under the total. The Ravens have gone 16-7 Under their last 23 as a road favorite, while the Chargers have gone 16-7 Under as a home dog vs. AFC foes. Additionally, this season, games involving home underdogs of less than 7 (or PK) have gone 39-16 Under. I expect a relatively low scoring game. Take the Ravens + Chargers Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 105 h 44 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Jacksonville/Houston game. The Jaguars were upset by Houston, 37-20, in the first meeting, and that game went over the total. I like taking regular season rematches of games with O/U lines of 47+ under the total if the favored team was upset in the first meeting, and that prior meeting went also went Over the total. The rematches then have gone Under the total 61.1 percent since 1980. Take the Under. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers under the total. These two teams met earlier this season in Green Bay, and Detroit won that game, 34-20. The Over/Under for that game was 45.5. This Thanksgiving Day game has a higher number, and it is the highest over/under line for the Packers this season. I look for a relatively low scoring game, as Green Bay has gone 13-5 under in games with O/U lines greater than 46 points. Additionally, the under falls into 551-449, 383-287 and 94-49 Totals system of mine. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-23 | Jets v. Bills OVER 39 | Top | 6-32 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Buffalo/New York game. These two teams met in Week 1, on Monday Night, and the Jets escaped with a 22-16 victory in overtime. That game went under the total of 44.5. We have a much lower number here, and I like the Over, as rematches of AFC East division games that went under the total in the first meeting have gone over the total more often than not in the 2nd meeting. And the Bills are also 36-26 Over in games with O/U lines less than 42 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-12-23 | Packers v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 128 h 6 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/Green Bay game. Both of these teams come into this game at Acrisure Stadium off a string of low-scoring games. Pittsburgh has played its last 6 under, while Green Bay has gone under the total in 4 straight. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here. But consider that teams off 6 or more Unders have actually gone OVER the total 106-84 since 1980. We'll take the Packers and Steelers Over the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-23 | Giants v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders game. The New York Giants are averaging a league-low 11.8 ppg, and their last 6 games have gone Under the total. But in none of those 6 games were both Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones on the field. Barkley missed Game 3, 4 and 5, while Jones was sidelined for Games 6, 7, and 8. I expect a much better offensive performance for the Giants now that both will be in the backfield on Sunday. And the Over also falls into 43-24 and 93-69 Totals systems of mine. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 132 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Indianapolis game. The Colts' defense has been a sieve over the past three weeks, as they gave up 37 to Jacksonville, 38 to Cleveland, and 38 last week to New Orleans. After those three high-scoring games -- all of which went Over the total -- I'll take the Under in this game vs. Carolina. Since 1980, NFL games have gone Under the total 60% of the time, if a team gave up more than 30 points in each of its last three games, and all 3 went Over the total. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-23 | Ravens v. Cardinals OVER 44.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens Over the total. The Cardinals have not been scoring on the road this season, but they have been scoring in bunches at home. On the road, Arizona has averaged 12.7 ppg, and three of its four road games have gone under the total. But it's been a different story in front of its home faithful, as Arizona has averaged 25.3 ppg, and all three went over the total. The Cardinals have gone over in 17 of their last 26 home games. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-23 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 45 | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs to go Over the total. The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game off 3 straight unders, while the Broncos have played their last 2 under the total. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially with Denver scoring just 8 points in the season's first meeting. But I'll take the Over, as the Chiefs are 25-13 Over the total following 3 or more unders. And NFL games have gone Over the total 56% the past 20 seasons if a team scored 8 or less points in the season's prior meeting. Take the Over. |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers Under the total. First-year Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is starting to mold the Texans in his image. The Texans have given up just 13.3 ppg their last three games, and all three went under the total. And, dating back to his stint as defensive coordinator of the 49ers, 20 of his last 33 games have gone Under. The Under is also 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these clubs, including a 24-9 win by Carolina two seasons ago. Take the Under. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars Over the total. The Saints have played all 6 games in the 30s this season, and this Over/Under has been priced accordingly. But the Jaguars have played four of their six games at 45+ points, with three topping 50 points, including last week's 37-20 victory vs. Indianapolis. Jacksonville's gone OVER 13 of 18 games when the O/U line was 43 points or less. And I look for a relatively high scoring game on Thursday. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 41.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -107 | 82 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders Over the total. The Patriots were shut out, 34-0, last week by the Saints. And New England has scored just 18 points over its three previous games -- each of which went under the total. But off this string of low-scoring games, we'll look for a higher scoring game, here, as NFL games have gone Over the total 62.1% over the last 36 seasons, if a team scored 25 points or less over its three previous games, and each went under the total. Even better: the Patriots have gone Over 64% after not scoring 10 or more points in their previous game. Take the Over. |
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 7 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans Over the total. The Saints shut out the New England Patriots last week, 34-0. And that game went under the total. But off that shutout win, I'll look for a higher scoring game at Houston, as NFL teams off shutout wins have gone over the total 59% in games with O/U lines > 42. Additionally, the Texans are 26-12 Over at home following back to back Unders. This will be a high scoring game. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 41 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and New York Jets Under the total. The Jets have been installed as a small road underdog in this game. And New York has gone under the total 9 of its last 10 games that have been competitively-priced with point spreads of 4 or less. Meanwhile, Denver is 42-22-1 Under the total its last 65 as favorites, including 8-1 Under its last 9 when favored at home by 3 or less points. Take the Under. |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons OVER 41 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -107 | 148 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the game between Houston and Atlanta. The Falcons only scored 7 in their game in London, England last Sunday. I look for a higher-scoring game back in the States, as teams have gone Over the total 60% following an international game. Additionally, the Falcons have gone 26-6 Over the total after scoring less than 10 points, if the O/U line was between 36.5 and 44.5 points. Take the Over. |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots OVER 38.5 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 54 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints Over the total. Both the Patriots and Saints come into this game off blowout losses. New Orleans was upset at home by Tampa Bay, 26-9, while New England was blown out by the Cowboys, 38-3. With both teams scoring less than 10 points last week, and averaging less than 16 points on the season, the knee jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here. But I'll run the other way and take the OVER, as NFL games have gone Over the total 57% of the time if both teams failed to score 10 or more points in their previous game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-23 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 40.5 | Top | 26-9 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 0 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Orleans/Tampa Bay game. The New Orleans Saints (along with the New York Jets) have played the lowest-scoring games in the NFL this season, as they’ve averaged just 34.33 ppg. Not surprisingly, all three have gone Under the total. But off this string of low-scoring games, I’ll look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday, as the Over falls into Totals systems of mine that have cashed 66% and 68% since 1980. The Saints are also 46-27 Over at home off back-to-back Unders (including 17-8 Over off 3+ Unders). Take Tampa/New Orleans Over the total. |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 88 h 60 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver Broncos/Chicago Bears game. Last Sunday, these two teams gave up an ungodly amount of points. Chicago allowed the Chiefs to score 41, while Denver gave up 70 to Miami. But off those two ugly defensive performances, I’ll look for a much better defensive effort given by both teams here. And NFL games with Over/Under lines of 46 or more, have gone Under the total 63% the last 38 years, if both of the teams gave up 35 or more points in their previous game. Take the Under |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles OVER 50.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 247 h 46 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, on February 12, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to go OVER the total. The Chiefs were the #1 offensive team in the league this past season, as they scored 29.1 ppg. The Eagles finished #3, with an average of 28.05 ppg. But the Chiefs failed to reach 28 points in either of their two playoff games, and both went under the total. Indeed, the Chiefs have now gone under the total in each of their last three games by 5.5, 5.0 and 8.0 points. But off those three games, we'll look for a much higher scoring game on Super Bowl Sunday, as Andy Reid-coached teams have gone Over the total 63% off 3+ Unders. Additionally, NFL games with Over/Under lines of 50+ points have gone OVER the total 84.2% since 1980 if a team averaged at least 23 ppg on offense, and each of its three previous games went UNDER the total by more than 4 points. And, finally, NFL match-ups between two exceptional offensive teams with scoring averages at 27.0 ppg (or better) have gone OVER the total 75.8% since 2003 if neither team went OVER the total in its previous game. This will be a high-scoring game. Take Super Bowl 57 OVER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 10 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total. These two AFC powerhouses met three times in 2022. The Bengals won all three meetings by a field goal. And all three games went for a total score NORTH of 50 points, as they totaled 65, 51 and 51 points. The Over/Under line for this AFC Championship game is south of 50 points. And the Chiefs have gone OVER in 9 of 11 games when the O/U line was 50 points or less. We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 40 m | Show |
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/San Francisco game. NFC Championship games have largely been high-scoring affairs. Indeed, the last 31 NFC Title games have gone OVER 21-8-2. It's true that the 49ers only scored 19 points last week, and their game went Under the total. But they've still gone OVER in 9 of 13 games since trading for Christian McCaffrey. And they're 5-0 OVER since October 9 following a game which went Under. Additionally, the Eagles are 14-4 OVER when matched up against .700 (or better) foes when the O/U line was 48 or less. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers game. Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has received a major lift. Prior to the trade, the Niners averaged 20.33 ppg, and SF went Under in five of its six games. But following the trade, the 49ers' offense has averaged 30.75 ppg, and nine of the 12 games have gone Over the total.  Likewise, since QB Dak Prescott returned from injury, the Cowboys have averaged 32.33 ppg on offense, and seven of their 12 games have gone Over the total. Last week, both the Cowboys and 49ers had high-scoring offensive performances in the Wild Card round. Dallas defeated Tampa 31-14, while San Francisco bested Seattle, 41-23. Since 1980, NFL Playoff games have gone OVER the total 63% if each team scored more than 30 points its previous game, and the O/U line was greater than 46 points. And, finally, the 49ers have gone OVER 10-1-1 when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -6 points, including 7-0 OVER at home. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total. When these two teams met in Cincinnati 20 days ago, the O/U line was 50.5. And when the game was stopped in the first quarter, the in-game O/U line was 56.5. Now, for this playoff game, the O/U line has been installed at a number less than the regular season meeting. By my math, the value rests with the Over in this game. Additionally, Bills have scored 32, 35, 35 and 34 points in their last four games, all of which went Over the total. And the Bills have gone OVER in 11 of 14 home playoff games since 1980. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Dallas Cowboys to go OVER the total. These playoff games have all gone over the total thus far, and we'll look for the Bucs and Cowboys to make it a perfect 6-0 SWEEP for the Overs in the Wild Card round. The Cowboys have played five of their last six (and seven of their last nine) OVER the total, while the Bucs have gone OVER in four of their last five. And the OVER also falls into a 77-45 Totals system of mine. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game. We played on the Over last week in the Bengals/Ravens game, and got the $$$ with Cincy's 27-16 win. And we'll come right back with the Over in this Playoff game rematch. Indeed, there have been 15 playoff games since 1980 where the teams also met in the final regular season game, and 12 of those 15 playoff games went Over the total. Even better, the Bengals have gone Over the total 9 straight division games when the O/U line was between 38 and 44 points. Take the Ravens/Bengals Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings Under the total. The New York Giants went under the total in 10 of their 17 games this season, and have gone under 106-79-1 their last 186 games. Even better: when priced as an underdog of less than 4 points (or PK), New York has gone under 32-13-1, including 10-0 under its last 10. And, finally, the Giants have also gone under in nine of their last 12 playoff games. Likewise, Minnesota has gone under the total in nine of their last 12 playoff games. This will be a low-scoring game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 59 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars Over the total. The Jaguars come into this game off 3 straight Unders, and they also won each of those games SU. But off that string of low-scoring victories, we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Saturday, as NFL teams off 3 straight wins, and 3 straight unders have proceeded to go OVER the total 69.2% since 1980. Meanwhile, the Chargers flew over the total in their previous game by 20 points, as they lost 31-28 to Denver, when the O/U line was just 39. That also bodes well for the Over, as teams off high-scoring games that went over the total by 20+ points have also gone Over in their next game in the Playoffs 59% of the time. The meeting between these teams earlier this season went over the total by 2.5 points, and 11 of the 13 meetings in this series have gone Over. We'll look for another high-scoring game on Saturday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-23 | Jets v. Dolphins OVER 37 | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New York Jets/Miami Dolphins game. These two teams met in Week 5, and the Jets bombed Miami, 40-17, and went over the total of 46 by 11 points. The Dolphins will have the same quarterback (Skylar Thompson) they did for that game, while the Jets will be led by Joe Flacco (who started New York's first three games this season) rather than Zach Wilson. Thompson actually was not the starter in that game, but he took over for an injured-Teddy Bridgewater on Miami's 2nd offensive play. Thompson was 19 of 33 for 166 yards and an interception in that game. With Flacco under center, New York's first three games this season averaged 44.3 ppg, and I expect New York's offense to move the ball against a Dolphins' defense which has allowed 33, 23, 32, 26 and 23 points in its last five games. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-23 | Ravens v. Bengals OVER 39 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens Over the total. This is the lowest Over/Under the Bengals have had since last year's final regular season game, when they matched up against the Cleveland Browns. For my money, the number is too low. Yes, Baltimore's offense is greatly hampered by the absence of Lamar Jackson. But there's two sides to every coin, and Cincy's offense is humming right now. Even last week against a good Buffalo defense, Cincinnati scored a touchdown on its first possession, and was on its way to a touchdown or field goal on its second possession when the game was halted. The in-game Over/Under line was at 56.5 at the time the game was stopped. The Bengals have scored an average of 29.28 ppg over their previous seven games, and I believe they'll find the end zone often this afternoon. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-23 | Steelers v. Ravens OVER 35 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers OVER the total. The Ravens come into this game off 4 straight unders, including a 17-9 win over the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday. Lamar Jackson will once again be sidelined, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring game tonight. And especially because the Steelers + Ravens went Under earlier this season in Baltimore's 16-14 win. But the Steelers have gone Over the total 60% of their rematches the past 23 seasons if the previous meeting went Under the total. And the Over also falls into Totals system of mine which is 102-55 since 1980. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants UNDER 38.5 | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis/NY Giants game. Last week, I had my Monday Night Football Total of the Year on the UNDER in the Colts/Chargers game, and was rewarded with a 20-3 Chargers victory. The Colts managed just 69 rushing yards and 104 passing yards for the entire game. I don’t see much more scoring here, as the Giants generally play Unders. New York is 36-16 Under at home, including 18-5 Under when the line was less then 44 points. And it's also 12-0 Under at home off a straight up loss. Meanwhile, the Colts have gone 8-3 Under their last 11 on the road, and 31-18 Under off a loss. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 130 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Under in the Colts/Chargers game. The Colts were stunned last week by Minnesota, which roared back from a 33-0 deficit to down the Colts, 39-36. We'll look for a much lower scoring game on Monday, as Indy has gone Under the total 47-27 at home off a loss in which it gave up 30+ points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-22 | Broncos v. Rams OVER 36.5 | Top | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 59 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Over in the Denver/Los Angeles Rams game. The Broncos opened the season with 11 unders in their first 12 games. And after that start to the season, the oddsmakers continually adjusted the Over/Under lines to get us to the point today where we are at. By my math, the value in Denver's Over/Unders has been on the Over the last two games, and not surprisingly, both went Over the total. I think there's also value on the Over in this game, as the line is still just too low. Indeed,it's been 11 seasons since the Rams have seen an Over/Under line this low. And it's tied for the lowest Over/Under line in a Broncos game over the past 11 seasons. Take the Rams & Broncos to go Over the total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-22 | Commanders v. 49ers OVER 37.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 77 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers Over the total. Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has scored 23, 31, 22, 38, 13, 33, 35 and 21 points, for an average of 27 points per game. Before getting McCaffrey, the Niners' offense averaged 20.33 ppg.   Not surprisingly, five of San Francisco's first six games went under the total, but since the trade, it has gone OVER the total in five of eight games. I look for another high-scoring game on Saturday. Take Washington & San Francisco Over the total |
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12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens OVER 36.5 | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 20 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Baltimore/Atlanta game. The Ravens come into this game off 3 low-scoring contests vs. Denver (10-9), Pittsburgh (16-14) and Cleveland (13-3). And each went under the total. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game, here. But NFL games have gone OVER the total 58% over the past 43 seasons if a team didn't score 17+ points in any of its three previous games, and those 3 games went Under the total, and totaled, in the aggregate, 80 or less points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-22 | Giants v. Commanders OVER 40 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Washington/New York Giants game. The Giants' last four games have averaged 51.75 ppg, and three of the four have gone 'over' the total. We'll look for another relatively-high scoring game on Sunday night, as the Over falls into a 98-53 Totals system of mine. Take the Over. |
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12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs OVER 44 | Top | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/Cincinnati game. We played on the Buccaneers to go Over the total last week, in their game against San Francisco, and were rewarded with a 35-7 49ers blowout. We'll look for this game to go Over the total, as well, as Tom Brady's teams have gone OVER 11 of 14 games after scoring less than 10 points, including 6-0 OVER if they lost that previous game by 17+ points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins to go OVER the total. Yes, it's the month of December, and wintry weather conditions are afoot. But the forecast for Saturday night isn't horribly bad. There's a little bit of snowfall in the forecast, with winds in the 10 mph to 15 mph range, and a temperature of 22 degrees. I like the Over in this game, as this is a relatively-low total for a Bills game. Indeed, in the past three seasons only eight Buffalo games have had a lower number than what we currently see for this game. And the Bills went OVER the total in six of those eight games. Similarly, the Dolphins have played 30 games over the past two seasons. Only 7 of those 30 had a lower number than this game, and Miami went Over the total in four of those seven. Earlier this season, the number posted for the Bills game in Miami was 54; last year, the two games had lines of 48.5 and 48. By my math, the value clearly is on the side of the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers OVER 37.5 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 67 h 18 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/San Francisco 49ers game. Prior to acquiring star running back, Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense averaged just 20.3 ppg, their games averaged 35.1 ppg, and five of the six went Under the total. Now, since the trade, their offense is averaging 26.6 ppg, while their games have averaged 43.5 ppg, and four of the six have gone Over the total. So, while it's true that Tampa's last four games have been low-scoring, and have gone Under the total, Tom Brady's teams have gone Over the total 29-16 off back-to-back Unders, and 12-4 following 3+ Unders. Take the Bucs and 49ers Over the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 92 h 15 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Kansas City/Denver game. The Broncos have played their last 8 games under the total. But I'll look for a high-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams off 6+ Unders have gone Over the total 55.4% since 1980 if the O/U line was 47 or less points. Even better: the Broncos have gone Over 55-32 at home when the line ranged from 42.5 to 45.5 points. And the Chiefs have gone Over 13-5 their last 18 as a road favorite (and 70-47 Over their last 117 as a road favorite). Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-22 | Jets v. Bills OVER 43.5 | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game. These two teams met earlier this season, and the Jets pulled off a huge upset, 20-17, and held the Bills to their season-low in points. That game went Under the total of 46 by 9 points. Today's number is lower, and the Over falls into a 113-69 Totals system of mine, which is the way we'll look here. Additionally, the Bills are 82-55 Over the total when priced as a favorite of -4 to -11 points, while the Jets have gone Over the total 67% since 1987 when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset earlier in the year. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game. These two NFC South division rivals met earlier in the season, and the Bucs triumphed, 20-10. The Over/Under line in that game was 43.5, so it went under the total. I look for a much higher scoring game on Monday, as NFL games have gone OVER the total 11 straight games (and 60% since 2011) if the season's previous meeting totaled 38 or less points, and also went under the total. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-04-22 | Broncos v. Ravens OVER 39.5 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 41 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Baltimore game. The Broncos have played their last 7 games under the total. But after playing 5 straight games where their defense held their opponents to less than 20 points, the Broncos have surrendered 22 and 23 points in their two previous games. And this weekend, they're playing a Ravens team which is averaging 25.0 ppg, and has scored 20+ points in nine of its 11 games. Baltimore will put points on the board. And I expect a relatively-high scoring game, as NFL teams on a streak of 6+ Unders have proceeded to go Over the total 55.5%. Take the Ravens/Broncos over the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-22 | Broncos v. Panthers OVER 36 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Carolina game. The Broncos come into this game off six straight Unders, while Carolina enters off back to back Unders. Last week, the Broncos scored just 16 points, while the Panthers scored just three. The result is that this O/U line is the lowest Total for the Broncos in 11 seasons, and the lowest Total for the Panthers in 12 seasons! By my math, it's too low. Indeed, since 1980, at Game 11 forward, NFL teams that averaged less than 15.9 ppg on offense, and whose games totaled, on average, less than 32 ppg, have gone OVER the total 65.1%. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots over the total. The Patriots come into this game off 3 straight unders. But the Pats have gone OVER the total 65% since 2010 if they were off 3+ unders. Even better: the Vikings were blown out last week by Dallas, 40-3. But Minnesota has gone OVER the total 15 of 18 off a loss, including 7 straight off a double-digit loss. Finally, the Over falls into two of my favorite Totals systems with records of 114-79 and 53-28. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons UNDER 49 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Chicago Bears/Atlanta Falcons game. Nine of the last 11 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER the total, and we'll look for this game to follow suit. It's true that the Bears come into this game off 4 straight Overs. But NFL teams off 4+ Overs tend to go UNDER the total in their next game, and especially when the line was > 46 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + Detroit Lions to go UNDER the total. Detroit's first four games this season were extremely high scoring, as they averaged 70.25 ppg. But its last four games have seen a precipitous drop-off in points, as they've averaged a mere 35.25 ppg -- which is 50.1% of the number of points scored in the first four games. Last week, Detroit played its lowest-scoring game yet, as it defeated Aaron Rodgers & the Packers, 15-9. I look for this game to be relatively-low scoring as well. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons to go UNDER the total. A couple of weeks ago these two teams met, and Atlanta survived to win, 37-34, in overtime. We'll take the UNDER in this contest, as competitively-priced NFC South division games, with point spreads < 3 points, have gone under 68% if the O/U line ranged from 42 to 53 points. Additionally, Carolina has gone UNDER 32-8 at home vs. division foes when not getting 3+ points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 50.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 105 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Arizona/Seattle game. The Seahawks blew out the New York Giants last week, and will travel to Phoenix to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona has given up 34 points each of its last two games and, not surprisingly, both went over the total. Seattle has gone OVER 81-46-1 after winning at home in its previous game and we'll look for another high-scoring game here. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Detroit/Miami game. After starting the season with four extremely high scoring games, the Lions have played back to back low scoring games. But those two games were on the road against Dallas and New England -- teams that play good defense. Today, Detroit is back at home, and it's gone OVER in 20 of 28 home games following a SU loss in a game which went under the total. Even better: Detroit is scoring 38.67 ppg at home, by itself. And its home games have averaged 76.33 ppg! Combine that with the fact that Miami's road games have averaged 59.67 ppg, and we have all the ammunition we need to take the OVER in this game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Seattle game. The Cardinals have reeled off four straight Unders after last week's 20-17 loss to the Eagles went under the total by 10.5 points. And Arizona is also 15-4-1 UNDER on the road the past 3 seasons, including 8-0 Under when priced from -7 to +2.5 points. It's true that Seattle surrendered 39 points to the Saints last week, and 45 to Detroit two games back. But the Seahawks have gone under 7 of 8 after allowing 28+ points in their two previous games. And competitively-priced NFC West division games, with point spreads of 3 points or less, have gone Under 45-18-3. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers game. After playing two of the NFL's best defenses the past two week (49ers, Cowboys), the Rams will be ecstatic to go up against a Panthers defense which has allowed 37 and 26 points its two previous games. Los Angeles has gone Over the total 60.3% off three straight unders. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 40-22 Over as road underdogs, including 11-0 Over when the OU Line was between 40 and 42.5 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints OVER 43 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/New Orleans game. Last week, the Saints scored 39 points in a 39-32 victory over Seattle. And their game went over the total by 26 points. We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday, as the Saints are 13-5 Over the total if they went Over their previous game. And they're 58-42 Over as home underdogs. Take the Over. |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Indianapolis/Jacksonville game. The first meeting this season was a low-scoring game, as the Jaguars won 24-0. And that was the 4th straight meeting between these two division rivals that went under the total. Also, each of these teams went under the total last week. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here. But I'll take the Over, as NFL division games have gone Over the total 55% of the time if both teams went Under their previous game; the season's previous meeting went Under, as well as the teams' last 3 meetings overall. Take the Over. |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers OVER 38.5 | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 58 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the San Francisco/Carolina game. Both of these teams have been playing low-scoring games this season. San Francisco's 4 games have gone under the total by 11.87 ppg, while Carolina's 4 games have gone under by 1.62 ppg. This game is a technical play for me, as it falls into Totals systems that have records of 101-51, 78-53, 71-43, 64-34 and 40-12. Additionally, the Panthers are 8-2 OVER the total following 3+ Unders, while the Niners are 6-2 OVER after 3 straight games under. Take the 49ers/Panthers Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders OVER 42.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Tennessee/Washington game. The Commanders had trouble scoring in their last two games but they faced two tough defenses in Philadelphia and Dallas. The Eagles are giving up just 17.5 ppg, while Dallas is surrendering just 15.5 ppg. But the Titans are giving up 25.25 ppg, so I expect Carson Wentz & Co. to do much better on offense. The Titans are 4-0 Over their last 4 (and 9-2 Over their last 11) as road favorites. Take the Titans/Commanders game Over the total. |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars OVER the total. The Jaguars are giving up just 12.66 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 15.33 ppg, while Philly is surrendering just 16.66 ppg, and outscoring its foes by 12 ppg. I think this will be a high scoring affair. At Game 4 forward, when you get a team (like Jacksonville) holding its opponents to 13 or less points per game, its games have gone Over the total 60.1% since 1980 if the Line was greater than 41 points. And in matchups between two teams with scoring margins > 7 ppg, those games have gone Over the total 57% since 1980 when the line was greater than 43 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -104 | 315 h 23 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams OVER the total. The Rams held Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in check in the NFC Conference Championship game, which finished 20-17, and went under the total of 45.5 points by 8.5 points. But the Rams have tended to go OVER the total when facing the better NFL teams, as they're 10-4 OVER when playing an opponent which averages more than 26.75 ppg, and 7-1 OVER when playing an opponent with a .650 (or better) win percentage. Additionally, the Rams are now 5-0 OVER following an under in their previous game. Even better: NFL teams have gone OVER 67-42 in the Playoffs following a game it went under by more than 8 points, if such Playoff game had a line greater than 42 points. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers over the total. These two teams met earlier this month, and the Niners upset the Rams here, in Los Angeles, to punch their ticket to the Playoffs. That regular season game went OVER the total. And we'll look for a similar result on Sunday, as the NFC Championship games have been extremely high scoring, for the most part, with the OVER cashing 21-7-2 since 1992, including 10-0 OVER if the line ranged from 45 to 54 points. Even better, in the Playoffs, when the home favorite was playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, those games have gone OVER 24-11. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total. These two teams met just four weeks ago, and they played a high-scoring game, won by the Bengals, 34-31. That game sailed over the total of 51 by 14 points. We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday at Arrowhead, as playoff rematches of games that went over, also tend to go over the total, and especially if the O/U line is 50+ points, as those games have gone over 65% since 1990. Kansas City has now played its last 7 games OVER the total, and is also 6-0 OVER with Patrick Mahomes at QB and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Arizona Cardinals game. These two teams played high scoring games in the regular season, with each team scoring 30+ points in a road victory. But this is the playoffs, not the regular season, and I expect a much better game today on the defensive side of the football. And the Rams, especially, have tightened things up defensively following their mid-season three game losing streak. Los Angeles gave up 28, 31 and 36 points in those defeats, and were being roundly criticized. But since hitting that rock-bottom level, the Rams have gone 5-1, with their only loss coming in overtime. And they have given up just 18.16 ppg in this stretch. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 UNDER on turf, and 11-3 UNDER off a SU loss. Take the under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-22 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers UNDER the total. The Broncos come into this game off back to back unders, and they've also gone under in 12 of 15 games this season, including 6 of 7 road games. Even better: dating back 44 years, the Chargers have gone 'under' 81-34-1 at home vs. division rivals, including 18-5 'under' the past eight seasons, and 26-9 'under' when priced from 44 to 47.5 points. This will be another low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team to go UNDER the total. These two teams played a mere two weeks ago. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke missed that game, with Garrett Gilbert starting in his stead, and the over/under line was set at 39.5 points. Heinicke is back for this game, so the over/under line has been adjusted higher. But it's been adjusted a bit too much, very likely due to the two teams' most recent scores. Philadelphia has played its last three games over the total, and has scored 33, 27 and 34 in its last three games. Meanwhile, Washington gave up 27, 27 and 56 in its last three games. But teams have gone 'under' the total in 11 of 15 games following a game in which they allowed 54+ points. And the Eagles have played their last five UNDER following 3 overs (and 26 of their last 36 UNDER following 3 overs), including 14 of 17 UNDER it it was a division game. Take Washington and Philly to go UNDER the total. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks OVER 42 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/Chicago game. In its last game, the Seahawks managed to score just 10 points, in their 20-10 loss at Los Angeles.  But the Seahawks have gone OVER the total in 30 of 47 home games after scoring 10 or less points the previous week in a game which went under the total. Additionally, this game falls into two totals systems of mine that are 96-52 and 38-16. This will be a relatively-high scoring game. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-21 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43 | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills OVER the total. The Patriots have gone 'over' the total in each of their last four home games, while Buffalo is 10-4-2 OVER the total its last 16 road games. We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Sunday afternoon, as the OVER falls into a 71-43 Totals system of mine. Additionally, Buffalo was upset by New England in the season's first meeting, and scored just 10 points in that game. And you would have to go back 55 games to find the last time Buffalo scored so few points in a home upset loss. But NFL teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they scored 10 (or less) points tend to bounce back on offense in the season's next meeting, as 59% exceeded their offensive ppg average, and the OVER has cashed 66.1%. Take the Bills and Patriots to go 'over' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings game. Both teams come into this game off high-scoring affairs. The Vikings tallied 36 last week in an 8-point win over Pittsburgh, while Chicago posted 30 in a 15-point loss at Green Bay. And the aggregate points of each team's last two games, combined, have been 120 (Minnesota) and 130 (Chicago) points. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game tonight. But NFL games have gone under the total 75% over the last 42 years if both teams' previous two games combined for 120+ points, with each game going 'over' the total, and each of the teams scored 28+ points in its previous game. That bodes well for the 'under' tonight. As does the fact that the Bears have gone 'under' the total in 23 of 33 division games when installed as a home underdog, including 12-0 UNDER when the line ranged from 42 to 48 points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans to go OVER the total. The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer this week, and have named offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell as interim head coach. Jacksonville's offense has been moribund of late, as it's scored just 64 points over its last seven games, including a shutout loss last week at Tennessee. Not surprisingly, Jacksonville's last eight games have all gone 'under' the total. But there is good reason to expect a different result this afternoon. First and foremost, the over/under line is the lowest this season for a Jaguars game by 5 points (more than the 2nd lowest O/U line). Indeed, four of Jacksonville's last eight games would have gone 'over' the total had the line been this low. Additionally, NFL teams that scored less than 14 points in their previous game, and have gone 'under' the total six (or more) games in a row have gone OVER 65.1% since 1980 in games with lines less than 43 points. I look for a relatively high scoring game this afternoon. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 54.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers Under the total. These two AFC West division rivals both scored a lot of points in victory last week. Kansas City tallied 48 at home vs. Las Vegas, while Los Angeles scored 37 at the New York Giants. But we will look for a much lower scoring game at SoFi Stadium tonight. Key Stat: the Chargers have gone UNDER the total 81-33-1 at home vs. division rivals over the last 34 seasons, including 11-2 UNDER if the line was 49+ points; 30-8 UNDER if both went Over the total in their previous game; and 34-14 UNDER as an underdog. This will be another low-scoring division game for Los Angeles. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 52 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals UNDER the total. After giving up 28, 31 and 36 its three previous games, the Rams' defense surrendered just seven last week to the Jaguars. And L.A.'s game went 'under' the total. I look for another supreme effort by the Rams' stop unit on Monday, as it will be looking to redeem itself after giving up 37 points to the Cardinals when the two teams met in October. The last three times the Rams gave up more than 28 points to a division foe in the season's first meeting, it rebounded to hold that foe to 10, 12, and 12 points in the rematch. Seventeen of the last 27 meetings between these two NFC West division teams have gone 'under' the total, and we'll look for a relatively low scoring game on Monday. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-21 | Falcons v. Jaguars OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Atlanta/Jacksonville game. The Jaguars have played their last five games Under the total, while the Falcons were shutout in their last game, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game this afternoon. But teams off 5 straight unders have gone 'over' the total in their next game more often than not. Additionally, when teams have gone 'under' in 4+ straight games, and their foe scored 7 or less in its previous game, those games have gone OVER the total 62.3% since 1980. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game. The Bills were shocked last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were a 14.5-point underdog, yet won, 9-6. The Bills tend to bounce back from losses, and their games also tend to be relatively low-scoring. Indeed, Buffalo has played its last eight games 'under' the total following a straight-up loss, and 18 of its last 24, including 9-0 UNDER if the line was 42+ points. Take the Jets/Bills UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 48 | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
t 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs OVER the total. The Packers have played their last five games 'under' the total, while the Chiefs have played their last 3 'under.' Now, with 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers sidelined, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game with Jordan Love at quarterback for Green Bay. But consider that games involving one team off 5+ unders vs. another team off 3+ unders have gone OVER the total 55% of the time, including 63% when the O/U line has been greater than 40 points. And the Chiefs also fall into a 126-76 Totals system of mine which indicates that they will go OVER the total. This will be a high-scoring game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts UNDER the total. The Jets have played their last four games OVER, including a 34-31 upset of the Bengals last week. Meanwhile, the Colts have played four of their last 5 OVER, including a 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee last week. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game tonight. But I don't see it that way, as my numbers project a relatively low-scoring game. Indeed, games involving a team off 4+ overs, with over/under lines of 45+ points, have gone 'under' 57% majority of the time when their opponent was also off 2+ overs. Likewise, in matchups between two teams that were each involved in high-scoring (59+ points) games their last time out, the 'under' has cashed 67.8% over the past 36+ seasons when the over/under line ranged from 45 to 52 points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-21 | Rams v. Texans OVER 46 | Top | 38-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans to go OVER the total. The Rams are averaging 29.57 ppg, and have scored 28, 38, and 26 over their last three games. They will surely put up points against a Texans club which has surrendered 31, 31 and 25 over its last three outings. And while it's true that Houston's offense has its own issues, it did put up 22 vs. a very good Patriots defense here in its most recent home game. And it's averaging 22.66 ppg at home this season (compared to just 7.25 ppg on the road). I expect Houston to put up a much better fight this afternoon in front of its home faithful than it did on the road the past two weeks. And the OVER also falls into a 62-31 Totals system of mine. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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