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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-21-24 | Oakland v. Kentucky UNDER 162.5 | Top | 80-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats and Oakland Golden Grizzlies to go Under the total. The Grizzlies defeated Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 83-76, in the Horizon League title game to reach the NCAA Tournament. But off that high-scoring win, we'll look for a lower-scoring game this evening. Indeed, Oakland is 39-16 Under away from home following a game where it scored > 75 points, if the o/u line was 146+ points. Additionally, the Wildcats also come into this game off a high-scoring affair, as they lost, 97-87, to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. And NCAA post-season games have gone under 61.9% if the line was 150+ points, and each team scored > 80 in its previous game. Take Kentucky/Oakland Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-21-24 | Morehead State v. Illinois UNDER 148 | Top | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Illinois/Morehead State game. The Illini have played their last 7 non-conference tournament games UNDER the total, while the Eagles have gone 6-3 UNDER their last nine post-season games. We'll look for a low-scoring game here, as the UNDER falls into a 19-2 Totals system of mine. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-20-24 | UNLV v. Princeton UNDER 139.5 | Top | 84-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Princeton/UNLV game. The Tigers come into this game off back to back high-scoring affairs. They defeated Penn, 105-83, at the end of the regular season, and then fell to Brown, 90-81, in the Ivy League Tournament. We'll look for a lower scoring game tonight, as teams have gone under 58.9% in non-conference post-season tourneys following back to back games where they scored 75+ points, that also went over the total. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-07-24 | North Alabama v. Austin Peay UNDER 148.5 | Top | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Austin Peay/North Alabama game. The Governors won their Tourney opener with a 101-98 victory against North Florida. Off that high-scoring win, we'll take the Under tonight. Indeed, teams off high-scoring wins in games that went Over the total, and totaled 195 (or more) points, have gone UNDER in their next game 67% of the time. Take Austin Peay and North Alabama UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-06-24 | Rutgers v. Maryland OVER 128 | Top | 56-53 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the game between Maryland + Rutgers. Each of the 5 meetings between these Big 10 Conference rivals has gone under the total over the previous 3 seasons. But the O/U lines for those games were all higher than the number for today's game. Both the Scarlet Knights and Terrapins come into this game off a string of Unders. Rutgers has gone under in 3 straight, while Maryland has gone under in 4 straight. But the Scarlet Knights have gone OVER 9-3-1 after going under in 3 straight, while Maryland has gone OVER 8-3 after going under in 4 straight. I like this game to sail OVER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-03-24 | Denver v. Oral Roberts UNDER 161.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Denver Pioneers and Oral Roberts Golden Eagles Under the total. Denver has gone Over in 11 of its last 12, including an 89-86 loss at ORU on New Year's Eve. I'll look for this game to be MUCH LOWER scoring, and take it Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-03-24 | Columbia v. Dartmouth OVER 137.5 | Top | 72-56 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Dartmouth Big Green and Columbia Lions Over the total. Dartmouth has played 14 of its last 15 games under the total, including a 56-53 loss to Cornell last night (which went under the total of 151.5 by 42.5 points). That's led to this line being too low, and I believe the value is on the side of the OVER tonight. Take the Over. |
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02-03-24 | Western Illinois v. SE Missouri State OVER 131.5 | Top | 76-55 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 4:45 pm, our selection is on the SE Missouri St. RedHawks and W. Illinois Leathernecks Over the total. The RedHawks have played their last 7 games under the total, including a 68-61 defeat at Western Illinois earlier this season. These facts have led to what my numbers indicate is a depressed over/under line, and I think it's too low. We'll take the Over. |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 67 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 5 between Denver and Miami. This series has generally been a low-scoring series. Game 1 went UNDER the total by 21.5 points; Game 3 went UNDER the total by 9.5 points; and Game 4 went UNDER the total by 8.5 points. The only game which went OVER the total was Game 2, and that barely went Over by just 2.5 points. I'll look for yet another low-scoring game on this Monday, as the Heat's offense has been struggling mightily since its opening three wins in the Boston series (in which it averaged 120.6 ppg). Over its last eight games, the Heat have averaged just 99.3 ppg, and seven of those eight games have sailed UNDER the total. Denver's also played seven of its last 10 UNDER. Take the Under in Game 5. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | Top | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 44 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 7 between Boston and Miami. We played on the Under in each of Games 5 and Game 6, and got the $$$ in both. And we'll come right back with the Under in this Game 7, on Memorial Day. As I mentioned in those previous write-ups, the Celtics have gone under 17-5 in elimination games, including the last 10 straight. And #2-seeded teams are 21-3 under in their last 24 elimination games, including 12 straight. Miami, meanwhile, will be playing its first elimination game in the Playoffs this season. And it's 16-9 under in elimination games. We'll ride with the under once again. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 44 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 6 between Boston and Miami. We played on the UNDER in Games 4 + 5, and will come right back with the UNDER here, in Game 6. After dropping the first three games (all of which went OVER the total), Boston has now staved off elimination twice -- keyed by its 3-point defense -- and each of those two games went under the total. So, after getting torched by the Heat in Game 3 (128 points, including 19-of-35 from 3-point territory), Boston has now held Miami's offense to under 100 in each of the past two games (99, 97), as Miami's converted just 17 of 55 from long distance the past two games. The Celtics are now 23-10 UNDER their last 33 elimination games, including 9-0 UNDER their last 9. We'll look for that streak to hit 10 straight on Saturday. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on Game 5 between Boston and Miami to go UNDER the total. We played on the Under in Game 4, and narrowly won when the teams combined for 215 points, which was 1.5 points less than the total. We'll come right back with the UNDER in this game, as it falls into a 113-54 totals system of mine. Even better: #2-seeded teams have gone UNDER 19 of their last 22 elimination games, including 10-0 UNDER their last 10. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total. The Celtics gave up 128 to Miami in Game 3, and were blown out by 26 points. Off that defensive debacle, I expect a lower scoring game tonight. The UNDER has gone 55-34 in the last 89 post-season games when it involved a team which gave up 115+ points in its previous game. And Boston is 13-6 UNDER off an upset playoff defeat. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Boston and Miami. The 2nd game of this Eastern Conference Finals barely went over the total of 215 (by one point), as Miami won, 111-105, as a 10-point road underdog. We'll look for Sunday's game to go under the total, as Boston has gone UNDER 67% since 1991 as a road favorite off back to back losses, when the line was greater than 195 points. Moreover, it is 10-2 UNDER off an upset home playoff defeat. And it's 21-8 UNDER in the Playoffs when the O/U line is 183+ points, if Boston is off back to back defeats. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 203 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 64 h 43 m | Show |
On Sunday, at 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers Game 7. These two Atlantic Division rivals played an exceptionally low scoring Game 6, won by Boston, 95-86. We played on the under in that game, and easily won, as it went UNDER the total of 210.5 by 29.5 points. Understandably, the number for this Game 7 has been set lower by the oddsmakers, but it's still too high. Philadelphia has gone 31-17 UNDER away from home vs. division rivals, while Boston has gone 19-10 Under at home vs. division rivals when the O/U line was less than 213. We'll once again take the UNDER in this rivalry playoff game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 40 h 23 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Phoenix game. The Suns were blown out, 118-102, on Tuesday. And that Game 5 went Under the total by 7.5 points. We'll look for another low-scoring game in Phoenix, on Thursday, as Playoff games with O/U lines > 226 have gone UNDER 57.2%. Moreover, the Suns have gone 12-7-1 UNDER following a 15-point (or worse) blowout defeat. And they've also gone 12-6 UNDER in the Playoffs following a straight-up loss. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Philadelphia game. The Celtics were a big favorite in this series vs. Philly. But unless they win the next two games, they'll be sent packing by James Harden & Co. Boston surrendered 116 & 115 in the last two games. I look for the Celts to play a much better defensive game tonight, and for this to go under the total. Indeed, Boston has gone under 7-1 following a loss in the Playoffs, if it was facing elimination. And it's 6-1 UNDER off back to back Playoff losses. Take the Under. |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 226.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 5 between Golden State and Los Angeles. The Warriors mustered just 101 points in defeat on Monday night. That was the 2nd straight Under in this series, and we'll look for another relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, as Golden State has now gone under 33-9 in the Playoffs following a loss in which it scored less than 110 points. And the Under also falls into 141-85 and 201-114 Totals systems of mine. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228 | Top | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. The Warriors blew out LA in Game 2, 127-100, and leveled the series at 1 game apiece. After giving up 127 points, we'll look for a much better defensive effort by the Lakers today, and for this game to go UNDER the total. Indeed, teams off playoff losses in which they gave up 120+ points have gone 21-8 UNDER in their next game when the O/U line was 218+ points. And the Lakers are 22-8 UNDER off a double-digit road playoff loss when the O/U line was 193+ points (and 7-0 UNDER when the O/U line was 208+ points). Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers to go UNDER the total. Boston has played its last five games over the total. But we'll look for a lower-scoring game on Wednesday, as Boston has gone UNDER 19-10 in the Playoffs off a home loss. Meanwhile, Philly is 93-53 UNDER the total when playing a foe off 5+ overs. And the Sixers have also gone UNDER in 15 of their last 21 playoff games, including 6-0 UNDER when the O/U line has been 216+ points. Take the UNDER. As always, good luck, Al McMordie. |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5 | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Sacramento and Golden State. Game 6 went comfortably under the total, as only 217 points were scored in Sacramento's 118-99 triumph. We'll look for another low-scoring game at Golden 1 Center, as the Warriors have gone UNDER in 9 of their last 12 games when facing elimination, including 5-0 UNDER when not favored by more than 2 points. And Golden State has also gone UNDER 31-9-1 in their last 41 Playoff games after a loss in which they failed to score 110 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers game. Three of the last four games in this series have gone UNDER the total. And the only game which did not -- Game 4 -- only went Over because of an Overtime session (the game was tied at 104 at the end of regulation). Thus, the last four games produced 196, 212, 208, and 215 in regulation (an average of 207.75). We'll look for yet another relatively low-scoring game tonight. This Grizzlies/Lakers series has now seen 18 of the last 23 go Under the total, including 12-1 Under when the O/U line was less than 224. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 38 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat Under the total. The Bucks have their proverbial backs against the wall in this Game 5, as they will be eliminated with a loss. We'll look for this game to go Under the total, as Milwaukee has gone UNDER in 11 straight home games when facing elimination in the Playoffs. Additionally, NBA Playoff series have gone Under 60% since 1990 if the road team won the Series' previous two games, and scored more than 116 in each of those two wins. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 202.5 | Top | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 59 h 22 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Under in the New York Knicks/Cleveland Cavaliers game. As my mother used to say, 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it.' And that maxim could apply to the Over/Unders in this series. We played on the Unders in Games 3 + 4, and easily won as those two games went under the total by 33 and 8 points, respectively. And Games 1 + 2 also went under the total -- each by 17.5 points. We'll ride the under once again, as the Cavaliers have now gone under in 6 straight games, and are 47-38-1 Under for the season. And they've gone under 24-12 their last 36 meetings vs. New York, and in their last eight playoff games, overall. Additionally, the Knicks have gone Under 26-9 when leading in a playoff series. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 6 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies to go UNDER the total. Game 3 totaled just 212 points, and went under the total of 221.5. And that's continued a playoff trend, as LeBron James & the Lakers have gone under 20-12 in the Playoffs since he donned the purple-and-gold. Likewise, Memphis is 9-5 under its last 14 playoff games. Additionally, these two teams tend to play relatively low-scoring games, as 17 of the last 21 meetings have gone UNDER the total (including 12-1 Under when the O/U line was less than 225 points). We'll look for yet another low-scoring game between these two teams. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 218 | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total. The Milwaukee Bucks are the #1 overall seed in the Playoffs, but find themselves down 2-games-to-1 entering this critical Game 4. Needless to say, a victory is of paramount importance to Milwaukee, as it surely doesn't want to fall behind by two games. After giving up 121 points in Game 3, I expect a MUCH BETTER defensive effort by the Bucks here, in Game 4. Indeed, road favorites off upset playoff losses have gone under 61% since 1990. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Golden State/Sacramento game. After Game 1 went Over the total by 11.5 points, Games 2 + 3 have reversed course, and have gone significantly UNDER. Game 2 totaled 220 points, and fell under by 18.5, while Game 3 was even LOWER scoring, as only 211 points were scored, sending it Under by a staggering 30 points. The oddsmakers have made an adjustment for this Game 4, but not by nearly enough points. We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Sunday, as Playoff games have gone under 68.8% since 1992 when the O/U line was greater than 229 points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 206.5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to go UNDER the total. We played on the Under in Game 3, and it easily sailed under the total, in a 99-79 New York win. And that game was the lowest-scoring Playoff game so far this post-season. It went under the total of 211 by 33 points, and that followed the first two games of this series that each went under by 17.5 points. The oddsmakers have adjusted the number downward for this Game 4, but it's by not enough points, as the value still resides squarely on the Under. The Cavaliers have now gone under in 5 straight games, and are 46-38-1 Under for the season. And they've gone under 23-12 their last 35 meetings vs. New York, and in their last seven playoff games, overall. Even better, Cleveland has gone 30-11 Under the total following a game which totaled less than 192 points, while the Knicks have gone Under 25-9 when leading in a playoff series. This will be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 220.5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat to go UNDER the total. The first two games of this series were very high-scoring. Game 1, won by Miami, totaled 247 points, while Game 2 was taken easily by Milwaukee, 138-122. Still, the Bucks have tended to play Unders in the Playoffs, as they had gone 11-2 Under their 13 previous Playoff games entering this post-season. Likewise, Miami had gone Under 14-6 in its 20 previous Playoff games prior to this series. I look for Saturday's game to be relatively low-scoring, as the Under falls into 106-62-9 and 94-55 Totals systems of mine. Additionally, the Heat are 6-1 Under their last 7 as a home dog, while Milwaukee is 9-1-1 Under as a road favorite when the O/U line was 227 or less. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 211.5 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 65 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cleveland Cavaliers/New York Knicks game. Games 1 + 2 have been extremely low-scoring. Game 1 went to the Knicks by the score of 101-97, while Game 2 was won by Cleveland, 107-90. The Over/Under lines were 215.5 and 214.5, so each game went under the total by a whopping 17.5 points. The Cavaliers have now gone under in 4 straight games, and are 45-38-1 Under for the season. And they've gone under 22-12 their last 34 meetings vs. New York, and in their last six playoff games, overall. We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Friday. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 37 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut/Miami game Under the total. After shooting just 30.4% in its opening round win (63-56) vs. Drake, Miami has shot the lights out in its last three games. Miami scored 85 in its 2nd round win vs. Indiana, 89 in its Sweet 16 round victory over Houston, and 88 in its Elite Eight triumph over Texas. The Hurricanes were a combined 94-of-179 (52.5%) from the floor in those three games. Those numbers were well above Miami's season averages of 79.6 ppg and 48.5% FG shooting. Indeed, in ACC Conference play this season, the Hurricanes shot 50% (or better) in less than half of their games. And I expect their red-hot shooting to come down in this semi-final match-up vs. UConn, as the Huskies have allowed just 34.9 percent shooting (81-for-232) in their four NCAA Tournament wins. Connecticut is 42-24 Under away from home vs. teams that convert 48% (or better) of their field goals. And it's also gone Under 59.3% vs. foes that scored 85+ in their previous game, and 62% vs. foes that average more than 79 points per game. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State UNDER 133 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Creighton/San Diego State game. Dating back to head coach Brian Dutcher's first season, San Diego State has gone 17-4 under its last 21 post-season games. Likewise, Greg McDermott's Bluejays have gone 20-9 under their last 29 post-season games. We'll look for this Elite 8 game to go UNDER the total, as the Aztecs have now played 13 of their last 14 games under the total, including 11-0 under since February 15. Additionally, the quarterfinal rounds of the NCAA/NIT Tournaments have gone under 33-19 their last 52. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 126.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the UCLA/Northwestern game. The Bruins put up 86 points in their first game in this tournament, while Northwestern tallied 75. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, here (or at least one which topped this relatively-low total). But I think we're in for a much lower-scoring game than each of these teams played on Friday. Looking back at Northwestern's season, we see that it played 9 of 10 games under the total to end its regular season, before going over the total in its two post-season games (vs. Penn St and Boise St). But the Wildcats have gone UNDER the total 61.1% off back-to-back overs. And the Under also falls into two totals systems of mine that are 60.5% and 62.7% since 2016. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-17-23 | Grand Canyon v. Gonzaga UNDER 156 | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Grand Canyon/Gonzaga game. After playing eight straight "OVERS" to end its regular season, the Bulldogs went UNDER the total in their two West Coast Conference tournament games. And they've also gone UNDER in 10 of 13 NCAA Tournament games when the OU line was greater than 148. We'll look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight, as the UNDER falls into 32-11 and 66-44 Totals systems of mine. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-16-23 | Furman v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
At 12:40 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Virginia/Furman game. Something's gotta give this afternoon, as the Paladins prefer an up-tempo game, and average 82 ppg, while Virginia likes things slower-paced, and gives up just 60.2 ppg. I expect the Cavaliers to exert their will, as they've gone UNDER the total 35-18 when facing a team which scores 80.75 ppg. And they've also gone UNDER 42-24 when their opponent's games averaged 148+ points. Meanwhile, the Paladins have gone 12-2 UNDER when playing a team which gives up less than 67 ppg. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-15-23 | Santa Clara v. Sam Houston State UNDER 143.5 | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Sam Houston St/Santa Clara game. The Bearkats come into tonight's game off a 78-75 loss to Grand Canyon, which went over the total by 26.5 points. But prior to that high-scoring game, the Bearkats went UNDER in seven straight. Tonight, they've been installed as a home underdog for the first time all season. But they were home dogs 6 times in the previous two seasons, and went under in each of those 6 games. Take the UNDER. |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons UNDER 230 | Top | 114-128 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Golden State/Detroit game. After scoring 123+ points in four of their first five games, the Warriors' offense took a holiday yesterday, as they lost 120-113 (in overtime), and the game went under the total of 233.5. I'll look for another relatively-low scoring game today, as the Over/Under line is a tad inflated. The Under also falls into 166-112 and 60-35 Totals systems of mine. Take the Under. |
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10-26-22 | Hornets v. Knicks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 131-134 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New York/Charlotte game. The Hornets come into tonight's game having played 3 'overs' in a row. We'll look for a lower-scoring game on Wednesday, as the Under falls into a 57% and 58% Totals systems of mine. Also, Charlotte is 4-0 Under its last 4, and 20-9-2 Under its last 31 after playing 3 straight Overs. Take the Under. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Win | 100 | 56 h 26 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 6 between Golden State and Boston. The last 2 games resulted in 204 and 198 points, with each going 'under' the total by 9.5 and 13.0 points, respectively. We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on this Thursday, as it falls into NBA totals systems of mine with records of 163-106, 74-43 and 169-95. Additionally, Boston has gone 'under' in its last 4 elimination games (and 17 of its last 26 elimination games). And the Warriors have gone 'under' in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 64 h 34 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 2 between Golden State and Boston. The Celtics erupted for 40 points in the 4th quarter to rout the Warriors, 120-108, and take a 1-0 lead in the Finals. Golden State will need to lock down on defense in this game, if it doesn't want to find itself in a 2-0 hole going back to Boston. And the Warriors typically do just that. In its 25 upset playoff defeats, it has held its opponent to a lower score 18 times. And, not surprisingly, 18 of those 25 games have also gone 'under' the total. Similarly, in the last 32 years of the Playoffs, teams off upset playoff defeats that gave up 120+ points in that upset loss, have then gone 'under' in the next game 58% of the time. Take Game 2 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 201.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on Game 6 between Boston and Miami to go Under the total. These two teams have gone under the total by 30.5 points, and by 21.5 points in their last two games. We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Friday, as teams that have gone under by 30+ points in their previous playoff game have continued to go under 60% of the time since 1990. Take the under. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat Under the total. The Celtics were upset by Miami, 109-103, on Saturday, and now trail in the series, 2-games-to-1. Off that upset loss, and with their back against the wall, I expect a much better defensive effort by Boston on Monday night. Indeed, NBA teams that trailed in a Playoff series, that were off an upset loss in a game which went Over the total, have generally rebounded to play MUCH BETTER defense in their next game. Since 1990, such teams have held their opponent to a lower point total in 86.9% of the games, and the UNDER has cashed 62.3%. Take the UNDER in Game 4. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Miami and Boston. This series is knotted at 1 game apiece after the two teams traded victories in Miami. We'll look for a low-scoring affair in Game 3, as NBA Conference Finals have gone UNDER the total 15 of 16 times since 1990 when a series has been tied at 1-game apiece, and the O/U line was greater than 184 points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 205.5 | Top | 123-90 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix/Dallas game UNDER the total. We played on the under in Game 6, and were rewarded with a 113-86 result, which went under the total by 11.5 points. The last four games of this series have all gone UNDER the total, and have done so by an average of 15 ppg. We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Sunday night, as the Mavericks are 52-21 UNDER when priced from -1 to +8 points, while Phoenix is 11-0-1 UNDER off a road loss this season (and 15-1-1 UNDER, dating back to last season). Take Game 7 UNDER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Milwaukee game. The Celtics and Bucks have gone under in four of the first six games in this series, including Game 6, which went under by 9.5 points. I look for another low-scoring game on Sunday, as Milwaukee has now gone under in eight of 10 Playoff games this season, while Boston has gone under in six of its last nine. Even better, Boston's 30-11 under when priced as a favorite of -3 to -7.5 points. Finally, in elimination games involving Milwaukee, the under has cashed 16 of 22, while it's cashed 23 of 36 in elimination games involving Boston. Take the under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game. Three of the first five games of this series have gone under the total (as well as nine of the last 13 meetings between these clubs), and we'll look for another low-scoring game here. Indeed, the last game went under by 25.5 points! And the last 3 games have gone under by an average of 16.16 ppg. Dallas has been installed as a home underdog in this game. And the Mavericks are now 40-13 UNDER when priced as an underdog of less than 6 points, including 8-1 UNDER its last nine at home. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat game. Three of the first five games have gone under the total in this series (as well as 7 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs), and I look for yet another relatively-low scoring game tonight. Indeed, the Heat have now gone under in 8 of their last 10 games, overall, while Philly has gone under in 7 of its last 10. Even better: the Sixers come into this game off a blowout 35-point loss. But the 76ers are 32-12 UNDER off a loss by 30+ points, while Miami is 20-4 UNDER when installed as an underdog vs. foes off a 25+ point defeat. Take Game 6 under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 212 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks 'under' the total. We played on the 'under' 213 in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 103-101 Milwaukee victory in a game which sailed under the total by 9 points. And that was the 3rd straight under played by these teams to open this 7-game series. Game 4 is tonight and, as my mother used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." I will adhere to that advice, and once again look for a low-scoring game. Indeed, not only has all three games of this series gone under (by 9, 21 and 28 points), but all eight of Milwaukee's playoff games have gone under! The Bucks have now gone 'under' 24-9-2 their last 35 home playoff games, while Boston has gone under 24-11 its last 35 road playoff games. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 213 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Milwaukee game. The first two games of this series have sailed under the total. And neither were close. Game 1 was won by Milwaukee, 101-89, and went under the total by 28 points. Likewise, Game 2 -- a 109-86 Celtics win -- went under by 21 points. We'll look for yet another low-scoring game this afternoon, as NBA Playoff games have gone under 62.3% since 1990 if the two previous games in the series combined to go under the total by 44+ points. Even better: Milwaukee has gone under in five straight home playoff games, and is 23-9-2 under its last 34 home playoff games. Meanwhile, Boston has gone under 23-11 its last 34 road playoff games. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Phoenix game. The Suns erupted for 129 points in their Game 2 win, and also tallied 121 in Game 1. But off these two high-scoring games, we'll take Game 3 to go UNDER the total. Indeed, since 1990, NBA teams that scored more than 120 points in a playoff win, and also scored more than 120 points two games back, have gone UNDER 68.6% since 1990. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Memphis/Minnesota game. These two teams went down to the wire in Game 5, with Memphis winning by just points, 111-109. And the game went under the total by 11 points. We'll look for another low-scoring game on Friday, as Memphis has been installed as a narrow 1-point road favorite. And NBA Playoff games, competitively-priced with a point spread less than 2 points, have gone 'under' 99-79 since 1990. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 210.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 62 h 32 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 6 between Utah and Dallas. These two teams mustered just 179 points in Game 5, which went 'under' by 33.5 points. And Game 4 wasn't much better, as they scored just 199 points combined, which was 15 points less than the posted total. Game 6 is set-up to be another low-scoring game, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 57% since 1990 off back to back low-scoring games that each went 'under' by 15+ points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 214.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 0 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns 'Under' the total. We played on the #1-seeded Suns in Game 5 of this series, as our NBA Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 112-97 win. That game went 'under' the total of 216. We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as #8 seeds (like New Orleans) have gone 'under' the total in Home elimination games 62% of the time since 1990, including 78.9% when the O/U line was between 198 and 219 points, and 82.3% in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 or less. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209.5 | Top | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Toronto game. Game 5 went 'under' the total by 20.5 points, and that was the 4th straight game in this series which has gone 'under.' We'll look for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as the Sixers have gone 'under' in 9 of 12 games after failing to cover the spread by 18+ points in their previous game, and 27-18 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in their previous game. Likewise, Toronto is 24-10 'under' after going 'under' by 17+ points in its previous game. Take the 'under.' |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 37 h 29 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game. The Warriors have exploded to score 123, 126, 118 and 121 points in this series. And, dating back to the regular season, the Warriors' last five games have gone 'Over' the total. But off this string of high-scoring games, we'll take the 'UNDER' on Wednesday night. Indeed, NBA teams have gone 'under' the total 65.1% since 1990 if they scored 118+ points in the three previous meetings that season, and the most recent meeting didn't go 'under.'  Even better: Golden State has gone 'under' 60% at home off 5+ overs. Take the UNDER in Game 5. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors UNDER the total. The Warriors come into this game off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went OVER the total. But since 1994, Golden State has gone 'under' 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS wins that all went 'over.' As does the fact that the Warriors are 25-13 UNDER their last 38 as a road favorite. I look for a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 118-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies UNDER the total. The last two games have gone WAY UNDER the total. Game 2 totaled 220 points, and sailed under by 20.5. Likewise, Game 3 totaled 199 points, and was 38.5 points away from the posted total of 237.5. The Game 4 line has been adjusted downward, of course, but not by nearly enough. We'll look for another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday night, as the Grizzlies have now gone 'under' 31-14-2 when the line has been 231+ points, including 8-1 'under' their last nine on the road. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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04-22-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans UNDER the total. The Suns were stunned in Game 2, as New Orleans leveled the series at 1 game apiece with a road win. Even worse: Phoenix lost its best player, Devin Booker, for the remainder of the series. We'll look for a low-scoring game in New Orleans tonight, as the Suns are 20-5 UNDER off a straight-up loss, including 9-0 UNDER their last nine on the road. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 223 | Top | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Milwaukee/Chicago game. The first two games of this series have gone UNDER the total, and they continued a series trend, as 12 of the last 16 meetings between these Central division rivals have gone UNDER the total. And this series trend dovetails with how each team has done in division games, overall. Chicago has now gone UNDER in 21 of 26 division games (including 11-0 UNDER when priced from 215 to 224), while Milwaukee has gone UNDER in 11 of 17 division games. And the Bucks are 22-14 UNDER off an upset loss. Take the UNDER. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Golden State game. The Warriors blew out Denver in the first two games -- both played in San Francisco -- by scores of 123-107 and 126-106. The Warriors have been installed as a road favorite tonight, and have gone UNDER the total in 25 of 37 games as a road favorite. Additionally, NBA teams off back to back games in which they scored 123+ points have gone UNDER 67.7% in the Playoffs since 1990. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA UNDER 142 | Top | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the UCLA/North Carolina game. This is a very much a contrarian play, as both of these teams have been playing high scoring games, of late. UCLA went over the total in its previous game vs. St. Mary's, and has played six of its last eight over the total. Meanwhile, North Carolina has gone over in 13 of 18. And these recent results have triggered a very good 62% Totals system of mine which plays certain tournament games UNDER, based on certain data from the teams' previous games. In this NCAA Tourney, the Tar Heels have topped 90 points in their first two tournament games -- each of which went over the total. But off those two very high scoring games, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game against the defensive-minded Bruins. UCLA is surrendering just 64.2 ppg this season and ranks 14th in the country (of 358 teams) in adjusted defensive efficiency. In the Bruins' last 12 games as a favorite, UCLA has allowed just 59.5 ppg, and has not allowed any opponent to reach 70 points. This game will be very low scoring. Take the UNDER. |
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03-03-22 | Pacific v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 140 | Top | 66-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Pacific/Loyola Marymount game. The previous meeting of these teams went 'over' the total by 31 points, which has led the oddsmakers to inflate the number of this Total. We'll take advantage and look for a relatively-low scoring game tonight, as post-season games have gone 'under' 55% when the previous meeting went 'over' by 25+ points. Even better: the UNDER falls into a 76% Totals system of mine. Take the UNDER. |
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01-05-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 82-99 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks OVER the total. This is the season's first meeting for these teams. But they met three times last season, and all 3 games not only went OVER the total. And they were all extremely high-scoring, as they generated 236, 266 and 263 points. Even better: the last seven meetings here, in Dallas, have gone OVER the total, and those games produced an average of 243.1 points. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-22 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 210.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder 'OVER' the total. The Mavericks and Thunder met here on December 12, and the Mavs won a very low-scoring game, 103-84. It went 'under' the total of 206.5 by 19.5 points. But Dallas was without its best player, Luka Doncic, in that game, so Jalen Brunson picked up the slack and scored 18 points. The good news for Dallas is that Doncic has been cleared to finally return tonight, after missing the team's last 10 games. And we will look for a high scoring game on this Sunday, as NBA games tend to go over the total when the previous meeting went under by more than 19 points. Additionally, the OVER falls into a 179-128 Totals system of mine. Take Dallas/OKC Over the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to go 'under' the total. We played Game 3 under, and the total opened at 222.5. It remained between 222.5 and 220.5 throughout the 3 days of betting action until 90 minutes before game time when many books dropped the line to 220. Game 3's final score was 120-100, so it was an 'under' or a 'push' for 99+ percent of bettors. The key to Game 3 going under was the Phoenix Suns' offensive output (or lack thereof), as they scored 18 less points than they did in either Game 1 or Game 2, when they scored 118 in each of their home games. That actually bodes very well for another low-scoring game tonight. In 31 years of the NBA Finals, teams that come off a loss -- which also didn't go Over the total -- where they scored 15 (or less) points than they did two games back, greatly tend to play another low-scoring game, as their next game also didn't go Over the total 83% of the time. Even better: Game 4s of the NBA Finals have historically been very low-scoring games, and especially in competitive series (that is, series that are not being led 3-games-to-none), as those have gone 'under' 18 of 24. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the 'under' in Game 4. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns 'under' the total. The Suns and Bucks have played all four meetings this year 'over' the total, and they've gone 'over' in all six meetings played this year, and last. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday night, especially after the Suns scored 118 in each of the first two games of this Finals. But consider that NBA games involving teams (like Phoenix) off back to back playoff games, where they scored more than 116 in each game, have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992. Take Game 3 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers 'under' the total. We played on the 76ers and the 'under' in Game 6, and got the $$$ with each. For Game 7, we'll come right back with the 'under,' as each of the last three games in this series has been low-scoring. Game 4 went 'under' by 23.5 points; Game 5 by 9 points; and Game 6 by 20.5 points! One of the reasons, of course, is that after playing the same team for several games, the defenses understand fully the other team's offensive sets, and don't allow the shooters to get the best looks. So, it's no surprise that, for example, the 76ers have shot 43.4% over the last three games (compared to 55.2% over the first three games). Likewise, Atlanta's shooting percentage has dropped from 48.2% to 41.0%. This season, Philly ranked #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has also allowed just 108.2 ppg. For the year, Atlanta's gone 'under' 65.5% of the time vs. the better defensive teams that allow less than 109.3 ppg. This will be another low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets to go 'under' the total. These two teams met on Thursday night for Game 6 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points, and the total was 220. The Brooklyn Nets entered that game with a 3-2 series lead, so it was an elimination game for the Bucks. But Milwaukee sprinted out to an 18-5 lead in the first quarter, and finished the quarter with a 26-19 lead. Brooklyn could never mount a comeback, and when the final gun sounded, the Bucks earned a 104-89 victory. The Bucks covered the 4.5-point number, and it went under the total by 27 points. The over/under line for this Game 7 is lower than it was for Game 6, but it's not low enough. And we'll look for another 'under' tonight. Indeed, seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the number this season. Even better: Brooklyn has gone 17-7 'under' vs. winning teams, and 12-4 'under' in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 3 or less. Likewise, Milwaukee has gone 'under' 36-22-1 vs. winning teams, and 27-18 in games priced from +3 to -3. Take the Bucks and Nets to go 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks to go 'under' the total. The 76ers now face elimination after back to back upset losses to the Hawks. But teams tend to go 'under' after back to back upset playoff defeats, as they've gone 'under' in 52 of 82 games. And the Sixers have gone 'under' in 27 of 41 road games when installed as a favorite. Take the 'under.' |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total. All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235). And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points. So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough. We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points. Even better: in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Clippers/Dallas Mavericks game. The last three games in this series have gone 'under' the total, and have done so by wide margins (32.5, 12.5 and 16 points). We played on the 'under' in Game 6, and that's the way we will look again in this Game 7. Indeed, eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER. And the Mavericks are now 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games when they've been installed as the underdog. Finally, NBA games have gone UNDER 72.5% if the season's previous three meetings went under, in the aggregate, by 59+ points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Dallas/Los Angeles game. The Clippers were upset by the Mavericks, 105-100, as a 7.5-point home favorite on Wednesday, which sets up this 'do-or-die' game for Tyronn Lue's men tonight. Los Angeles has now gone 'under' in 10 of its last 13 games off a straight-up loss, while Dallas is 17-11 'under' vs. opponents off a loss. Even better: these two teams come into tonight's game off two very low-scoring contests (105-100, 106-81) that went under the total by 32.5 and 12.5 points, respectively. And that sets up tonight's play, as competitively-priced playoff games, with point spreads of 3 (or less) points, have gone 'under' 60.9% since 1991, if the two teams also went under in their two previous games. We'll look for another low-scoring game tonight in Game 6. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Phoenix/Los Angeles game. These two teams have played four of their five games in this 1st round series UNDER the total. And the last three have gone 'under' by wide margins (9.5, 17.5 and 7.0 points). That bodes well for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 67% since 1991 after the three previous games went 'under' by at least 5.0 ppg. Take Game 6 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies game to go under the total. The Grizzlies have lost their last three games to face elimination tonight. We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game, as 1st Round elimination games have gone 'under' the total 57% since 1991 if the team facing elimination was not getting more than 10 points. And Utah has gone 'under' 62-44 at home in the playoffs. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Memphis/Utah game. The Grizzlies find themselves in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they're down 2-games-to-1 after dropping Games 2 + 3 by scores of 141-129 and 121-111. Clearly, the Grizzlies will need to shore up things on the defensive end if they hope to get back into this series with an upset win tonight. I look for a much better defensive effort by the home team, and a lower-scoring game tonight, on Monday. Indeed, NBA playoff games have gone under the total 71% of the time since 1990 if a team was off back to back losses, in which it gave up more than 120 points. And the Grizzlies have also gone 'under' 33-13-1 their last 47 after giving up 120+ points in their previous game. Take the 'under' tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the game between Memphis and Utah. The Jazz exploded for 141 points on Wednesday, as they won SU/ATS as a 10-point home favorite, 141-129. But off that high-scoring game, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Saturday. Indeed, NBA teams off 138+ point games have gone 'under' 90-67 since 1991 when the O/U line was 224+ points. Moreover, the Grizzlies have gone 'under' in 34 of their last 48 home games, and 32-14-2 'under' off a loss by more than 8 points. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 33-16-1 'under' in their road playoff games off a SU win. Take the Grizzlies/Jazz Game 3 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Portland/Denver game. The Nuggets have won the past two games by scores of 128-109 and 120-115. But off those two high-scoring wins, we'll look for a lower-scoring affair this afternoon, as teams have gone 'under' the total 65.0% since 1991 if they scored more than 116 in back to back playoff games. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers game. These two teams come into tonight's game off back to back high-scoring affairs. Portland won Game 1, 123-109, while Denver took Game 2, 128-109. We'll look for a lower-scoring game tonight, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time since 1991 after back to back games that totaled 230+ points. Additionally, the 'under' falls into several of my favorite Totals systems that are 92-58, 177-131, and 136-101 since 1991. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-27-21 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 227.5 | Top | 129-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Minnesota game. The Rockets have gone 'under' 28-13 in 2021, including 9-1 'under' in games with O/U lines greater than 227. And they're also 13-0 'under' their last 13 when priced from +3 to +6 points. Meanwhile, Minnesota's gone 'under' 13-4 when priced as a home favorite, including 7-0 'under' when laying more than 4 points. Take the 'under.' |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas UNDER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Arkansas and Oral Roberts. The Razorbacks have played their last four games 'under' the total, and I look for another relatively-low scoring game on this Saturday. Indeed, teams that have gone under in a tournament's first two games have continued to go under 64.7% in their 3rd game of that post-season tournament. And the 'under' also falls into 86-61 and 36-20 post-season Totals systems of mine. Finally, Arkansas is 25-14 'under' in non-conference games. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208 | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Clippers game. This will be the Nuggets' fourth straight "Game 7" dating back to last year's playoffs. In 2019, the Nuggets played Game 7s vs. the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers. This season, Denver downed Utah in a Game 7 earlier this month, and now it will play another decisive game tonight. Each of Denver's other Game 7s easily went 'under' the total -- and by very large margins. Its game vs. San Antonio sailed under by 31.5 points; the Portland game went under by 15; and the Game 7 win over Utah went under by 59.5 points. These two teams have gone under 4-0-2 in the last six meetings, and 21-9-3 under in the last 33 meetings. Finally, the 'under' falls into 87-47 and 63-33 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto Raptors/Boston Celtics Game 6. The first five games of this series have each gone 'under' the total, which has driven down the number from 217.5 in Game 1 to 210 for this Game 6. Some may take the 'over' today because of the relative "value,", but consider that each of the five games have also gone 'under' 210, as well. Indeed, the average score of the five games in this series has been just 201.4 points. The Celtics have now played seven straight 'unders' and 10 of their past 11, while the Raptors have gone 'under' in seven of eight. And, dating back to the 2018 post-season, the Celtics have gone 'under' in 21 of 28 Playoff games, including 15-1 'under' when priced from 205 to 219. This will be another low-scoring game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 219 | Top | 87-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets 'under' the total. The first two games of this series were extremely high scoring. Game 1 saw the Nuggets win, in overtime, 135-125, while Game 2 went to the Jazz, 124-105. I actually look for a much lower-scoring game this afternoon, as NBA playoff games have sailed 'under' the total 60% of the time since 1992 following two games in the series that each produced 225+ points. Even better: this series has gone 'under' the total in 21 of the last 29 meetings. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-19 | Spurs v. Hawks OVER 219 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs to go 'over' the total. Trae Young (26.8 ppg) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all I needed to pull the trigger on this game to go 'over' the total. San Antonio is running a lot more this season, now that Dejounte Murray is healthy again (after missing last season). Murray was one of the lone bright spots for the Spurs in their loss to the Lakers on Sunday, as he totaled 18 points, 11 rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes. And one can see what his presence in the line-up this year has done for the team's offensive strategy, as a whole. This season, the Spurs rank #1 in fastbreak points per game (19.8), compared to ranking #30 last season (10.3 ppg). And their pace of play has jumped from #22 to #11. It's true that Murray is on a minutes restriction (24) and won't play on back-to-back nights for the first part of this season. But that's not a problem in this game, since the Spurs are rested, and don't play again until Thursday. So, he'll be on the floor. I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 212 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz 'over' the total. These two teams met just four days ago, and the Jazz held the Clippers to just 96 points, in a 110-96 win. That was the only time this season that Los Angeles failed to score more than 100 points. Of course, it also must be noted that Kawhi Leonard (and his 29.2 points per game) were in street clothes for that game. In the five games that Leonard has been on the court, the Clippers have averaged 117.8 points per game. The over/under for the first meeting was 216.5 points, and this number opened much lower, despite the fact that Leonard will play. I believe it's an over-reaction to the result of the first meeting, as well as to the fact that both teams have gone 'under' the total by more than 10 points in each of their three previous games. That's certainly not a common situation. But it happened last season when Detroit and Philadelphia met on December 7. The 76ers had gone 'under' the total by 14, 13.5 and 13 points in their three previous games, while the Pistons had gone 'under' by 19, 24.5 and 15.5 points in their three previous games. But the two teams combined for 228 points, and sailed 'over' the total. The Clippers have gone 'over' the total in 13 of their last 15 games when favored, and playing with revenge. And the 15 games also averaged 232.4 ppg. This game will be very high-scoring. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 216.5 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'OVER' in the Atlanta/Miami game. These two teams played a few nights back, and the Heat won that game, 112-97. The over/under line in that game was 224.5, so tonight's number is significantly less than what was offered for that game. Admittedly, Atlanta guard Trae Young will be out tonight, but this over/under line is somewhat of an over-reaction. The Hawks have gone 'over' the total in 39 of 59 home games off a loss, including 12-4 'over' vs. division rivals. Also, the 'over' falls into a system of mine which has cashed 60.4% since 1990. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Golden State game 'under' the total. These two teams went under the total in Game 5. But the only reason it was close to the number was due to the opening quarter. The two teams combined for 62 points in the 1Q, and 73 points in the first 14 minutes, 14 seconds. But, of course, Kevin Durant was on the floor for much of that time period. Thus, following the Durant injury, the two teams combined for 138 points over the final 33 minutes, 46 seconds, which extrapolates to 196.16 if that rate of scoring would apply for the full 48 minutes. And that lines up almost perfectly with Game 4, which had a final score of 105-92. The 'under' also falls into 139-92 and 85-45 Totals systems of mine. This will be a very low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213.5 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 41 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Game 6 between Toronto and Milwaukee. The two teams combined for just 204 points in Game 5, which was the lowest aggregate total yet for the two teams in this Playoff series. And Game 5 was a full 18 points less than Game 4. As such, Game 5 went 'under' the total by 11.5 points! I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday night, as #1-seeded teams, off an upset home loss, and now facing elimination on the road, have gone 'under' the total 78% since 1990. Even better: NBA Finals and Conference Finals games have gone 'under' the total 61.7% of the time if the two teams combined to go 'under' the total in their previous game by at least 8 points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Golden State Game. These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 5, and it easily went 'under' the 221 Total. I look for another very low-scoring game tonight, as this series has gone 'under' the total much more often than not. Indeed, in the last 50 meetings, the 'under' has cashed 66% (33-17 'under'), including 16-6 'under' in the Playoffs. Additionally, the Rockets have now gone 'under' in 23 of their last 32 Playoff games when they were not leading in the series, including 6-0 'under' when they were favored by more than 5 points. And since Steve Kerr became head coach, the Warriors have gone 'under' the total in 18 of 23 games where they were priced as an underdog of +2.5 to +8 points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 217 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Philadelphia game. The Raptors have gone 'under' the total in six of seven Playoff games this season. And they haven't been close. Indeed, in the Orlando series, the first four games went 'under' by 7, 19.5, 20, and 14 points, while the 5th game did go 'over' the total, but by just 5 points. And this series is following down a similar path, as Games 1 + 2 have gone 'under' the total by 20 and 36.5 points. In the Magic series, the oddsmakers were slow to adjust, as the first three games had totals of 212, 212.5 and 211. Here, in this series, the oddsmakers have adjusted a bit more, as the first three games have had lines of 223, 219.5 and (currently) 216.5 for tonight's game. But, based on my numbers, the line should be significantly lower, still. Philly has gone 'under' in 27 of its last 40 home Playoff games, while Toronto has gone 'under' in 14 of its last 20 road Playoff games. Finally, the total falls into 91-55, 89-54, 99-67, 22-12, 137-91 and 33-13 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game. The #1-seeded Warriors surrendered 129 points to the Clippers in Game 5, and that won't sit well with coach Steve Kerr. Indeed, it was the 4th-worst defensive effort by his team in 88 Playoff since he's become head coach. But after giving up 115+ points in a playoff game under Kerr, the Warriors have generally rebounded with a much better defensive effort, as they've gone 'under' the total 64% of the time. And that dovetails with the Warriors' results, generally, off a loss since Kerr became coach, as they're 63-44 'under' the total after losing their previous game. Moreover, dating back to 1993, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 79% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset home loss in the Playoffs. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 208.5 | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets to go 'under' the total. San Antonio is in a 'must-win' situation tonight, as it is down 3-games-to-2. And one of the things I love to do is play on the 'under' in "elimination" games, if the team in the 'must-win' position is favored, and off a double-digit loss. Since 1991, such teams have gone 'under' the total 59.3% of the time. The 'under' also falls into 73-51 and 84-43 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207 | Top | 107-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Orlando game. We played on the 'under' in Game 2, and it easily sailed under the closing 211 number, as Toronto won, 98-93. The number is a bit lower today, but the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the rightful number. Indeed, the three games in this Playoff series have gone 'under' all three times, by 7.5, 19.5 and 20 points. And if we go back to the regular season, six of the seven meetings this season have gone 'under' (as have 14 of the last 19 meetings). The Magic are 39-19 'under' off a straight-up loss, including 14-0 'under' their last 14 when priced from +4 to +9.5 points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 210 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total. The first two games of this series went 'under' the total. And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014). The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991. Take the 'under.' |
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04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles/Golden State game. The #1-seeded Warriors blew a 31-point lead in Game 2, and they fell to the Clippers, 135-131. That was the 2nd-most points the Warriors have given up all season, and the reason was their defense in the 2nd half. Golden State actually led 73-50 at halftime. But it shockingly gave up 85 points in the 2nd half. Coach Steve Kerr will no doubt emphasize defense for this road game at Staples Center. And it should comfortably sail under the total, which is a very high number. Indeed, dating back to 1991, #1-seeded teams have gone 'under' the total 83% of the time as road favorites (or PK) off an upset loss at home in the Playoffs. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 66 h 34 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under. Analysis to follow. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 209 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under. (Analysis to follow.) |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 214 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 40 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in Game 6 between Golden State and Houston. We have won each of the first five games of this series, including a play on the Under in Game 5. That game went Under by a whopping 28 points, as Houston won, 98-94, to take a 3-2 series lead. The bad news for the Rockets is that PG Chris Paul (24.39 PER this season) suffered an injury, so he won't play tonight. This season, Paul missed 24 games. And while the Rockets were 15-9 straight-up in those games, they were 9-15 ATS, including 0-4 SU/ATS as an underdog. Even worse, the Rockets averaged just 107.7 ppg without Paul in the line-up (compared to 112.7 ppg with him on the court). Certainly, his 18.6 points, 7.9 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game were missed. Not surprisingly, the Rockets have gone 15-9 Under the total without Paul in the line-up this season, including 9-2 Under on the Road, and 8-0 Under when not favored by more than 5 points! I look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 201.5 | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Cleveland/Boston game, as it falls into an 82-42 Totals system of mine. These two teams have played four of their first five games in this year's Playoffs Under the total. And that has continued a long-term trend in this series, as 18 of the last 27 games have gone Under. Additionally, Boston's 17-6 Under on the road in the Playoffs. And teams, like Cleveland, that scored less than 85 points in their previous game, and now trail in a Playoff series, and face elimination, have gone Under the total 58.41% the past 25 years. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State/Houston game to go 'under' the total. This series has seen three of its first four games go 'under' the total. And Game 4 went under by a whopping 40 points. I look for this trend to continue on Thursday, as the 'under' falls into an 195-139 totals system of mine. Additionally, Playoff games have gone 'under' the total 68.1% of the time the past 25 years if the previous playoff game went 'under' by more than 36 points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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