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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
49ers vs. Chiefs 6:30 PM ET Pick: Chiefs +2.0Â Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Kansas City is 10-1 SU&ATS in away games or at a neutral site when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. During that exact time span, Kansas City was also a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in away or neutral site games. Andy Reid teams in both Philadelphia and Kansas City have been phenomenal when coming off a bye week. Give me Kansas City plus points. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Lions @ 49ers 6:30 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: 49ers -7.0 The difference in this game will be the 49ers passing game against a Detroit defense which has allowed 319 yards or more through the air in each of their previous 5 games. Additionally, the 49ers defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 305.4 yards per game this season which ranks among the league’s best in both categories. Lastly, the 49ers are the more experienced team in big game situations such as these and Detroit takes to the road for a first time this postseason. Give me the 49ers plus points. Props ·      Brock Purdy over 276.5 passing yards. ·      49ers over 30.5 points scored. ·      Chrisian McCaffery under 84.5 (-115) rushing yards. ·      Chrisian McCaffery over 36.5 (-115) receiving yards. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Bills 6:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Bills -2.5 (10*) Despite all the success that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career postseason career, this will be his first start on the road in the AFC Wildcard Round, AFC Divisional Round, and AFC Championship Game. Technically Mahomes does have 1 postseason road start and came versus Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl which the Chiefs lost. Buffalo is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their postseason home games. Additionally, this will be just the 3rd time in that stretch they’ll be a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The previous 2 time they beat Baltimore 17-3 in 2021 and New England 47-17 in 2022. The Bills enter this contest on a 6-game win streak while 4 of those 6 opponents finished with regular season action with a winning record. The Bills suffered 6 losses this season, and they all came by 6 points or fewer. So, a strong case can be made for them being an even better team than their current 12-6 record indicates. It’s been well documented how Buffalo will be shorthanded due to several injuries to starters and most notable on the defensive side of the board. However, they do have quality depth on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo began their current win streak with a 20-17 win at Kansas City. The Bills are coming off a 31-17 home win over Pittsburgh last week, and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite. The current total on today’s game is 45.5. This sets up a 100% betting angle that has remained unscathed since 2009. NFL postseason home favorites of 7.0 or less with a total that’s 51.0 or less and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or less, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average line in those 6 contests was 4.9 and those home favorites won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +6 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 59 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Lions 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Buccaneers +6.0 The Lions escaped with a 24-23 home win over the Rams in the Wildcard Round last Saturday night but failed to cover as a 3.0-point favorite. You may be surprised to know, that marked their first win of the season at home versus an opponent that finished regular season action with a winning record. They were 0-2 SU&ATS in their previous 2 games in that role while losing to Seattle and Green Bay. Now they’re better than a touchdown favorite versus a Tampa Bay team which has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included an impressive 34-20 win at Green Bay. As a matter of fact, Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games. The Buccaneer quarterback and former first overall draft pick Baker Mayfield is arguably enjoying the best season of his career. As a matter of fact, Mayfield has thrown for 283 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 games. Mayfield will be facing a Detroit defense which has allowed 323 yards or more passing in each of their previous 4 games. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed just 18.6 points per game this season. Additionally, Tampa has allowed only 11.0 points and 272.5 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Packers @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: 49ers -9.5 The public is certainly in love with Green Bay after watching them blow out Dallas as a 7.5-point road underdog in last week’s Wildcard Round. The question then becomes, if they beat the NFC #2 seed easily as a 7.5-point dog, then why are they 9.5-point dogs on Saturday night. The oddsmakers aren’t deterred by what they saw last week, and neither am I. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Bills 4:30 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Bills -10.0 Since the 2011 NFL postseason, playoff home favorites of between -10.0 and -1.5 are 9-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.1 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL regular season, the Steelers are 0-4 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 7.5 or greater and they were outscored by 26.0 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS as a conference favorite of between 8.0 to 13.5 and won by an average of 17.8 points per game. McDermott’s Bills are also 3-1 SU&ATS versus Mike Tomlin’s Steelers since 2019 and outscored them by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | 48-32 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
Packers @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Cowboys -7.0 Dallas is 8-0 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 23.5 points scored per game. The Packers enter the postseason on a 3-game win streak but none of those opponents they faced finished with a winning record. Their offense has steadily improved throughout the season to the point they were impressive down the final stretch of regular season action. Much of that success centered around quarterback Jordan Love who has quietly put together a stellar season which saw home throw for 32 touchdown passes against just 11 picks. However, this will be his first career postseason start and, on the road, no less against a Dallas defense that finished regular season action #5 in yards and points allowed per game. Furthermore, Dallas’ offense finished 1st in scoring at 29.9 points scored per game and #5 in total yards at 371.6 yards per game. Throughout the previous 3 seasons, Dallas has gone an outstanding 12-5 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and outscored their opponents by a substantial margin of 15.4 points per game. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Chiefs -4.5 Miami enters the postseason mentally deflated. They lost their last 2 games of regular season action which included last Sunday night’s home loss to Buffalo that dropped them from a #2 to #6 seed. Putting things into perspective, they blew a 3.0 game lead over Buffalo in the last 5 games of the season and choked away a chance to end Buffalo’s 3-year reign as AFC East Division champions. It’s also well documented the recent struggle that Miami has endured when playing teams with a winning record since early last season. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing a Kansas City team which is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 postseason home games and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less. NFL postseason home favorites of 5.0 or less with a win percentage of .625 or better versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans +2.5 | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Browns @ Texans 4:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Texans +2.5 The Browns are getting a lot of love as a Super Bowl sleeper pick out of the AFC. However, getting by Houston on the road will be no easy task despite them currently being a small favorite in the contest. Here’s the thing, Houston has committed just 14 turnovers this season. Conversely, Cleveland has managed to go 11-6 this season despite an alarmingly high 37 turnovers committed. That 37-14 disparity is the largest ever for an NFL postseason game. Let alone, the team that’s -23 is a road favorite. Additionally, Houston is 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home when C.J. Stroud is their starting quarterback. Stroud is a stone-cold lock for NFL Rookie of the Year while throwing 23 touchdowns versus just 5 interceptions in his 15 starts. Compare that to his counterpart Joe Flacco who has thrown 8 picks in just 5 starts. Cleveland’s overall defensive numbers are extremely good. But they’re magnificent at home and average at best on the road where they’re allowing 29.6 points per game. Since 1980, NFL Playoff home underdogs have gone 31-16 ATS including 10-0 ATS and 8-2 SU when they were a dog of 2.0 or less. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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01-07-24 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
Bills @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Bills -2.5 Buffalo has had Miami’s number in recent season while winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Their lone loss in that sequence was 21-19 on the road in September of 2022. The Bills deserved a better fate in that defeat when considering they outgained Miami 497-212. Additionally, Josh Allen’s career passing and rushing statistics are far and away the best against Miami than any other NFL team. Buffalo has been as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time, while Miami has sustained many key injuries heading into this matchup. Give me Buffalo minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Rams v. 49ers -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rams @ 46ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: 49ers -4.0 The 49ers have clinched the NFC #1 seed and will rest starters Brock Purdy (QB) and Christian McCaffery (RB) just to name a couple. However, I like the 49ers chances much more with Sam Darnold at quarter than the Rams expected starter Carson Wentz. The Rams have clinched a wildcard berth and will be either a #6 or #7 seed. Hence Sean McVay has chosen to rest starters Mathew Stafford (QB), Aaron Donald (DT), Cooper Kupp (WR), and Kyren Williams (RB). I also like the quality depth on the 4ers roster much more than that of the Rams. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles -4 v. Giants | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Giants 4:25 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Eagles -4.0 The Eagles have pretty much squandered what looked to be a commanding lead in the NFC East with their late season swoon that seen them go 1-4 over their last 5 games. The epitome of that collapse occurred last week when they blew and 15-point halftime lead in a 35-31 home loss versus the Arizona Cardinals (4-12) that allowed the Dallas Cowboys to surpass them in the standings. The bottom line is this, Philadelphia needs something to feel good about heading into the postseason especially where it’s likely they’ll require 3 road wins to get back to the Super Bowl for a 2nd straight season. The Giants (5-11) playoff hopes have long been gone and they enter their regular season finale on a 3-game losing streak. The Giants have lost 5 straight games to the Eagles and by a substantial average of 19.0 points per contest. The Eagle defense has been anything but playoff caliber over their previous 6 games while allowing 31.5 points and 398.8 points per contest. Nonetheless, they don’t figure to get exposed by a Giants offense which has averaged 12.3 points scored and 277.9 yards gained per contest over 7 home games. Give me the Eagles minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Bears v. Packers -2.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
Bears @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Packers -2.5 The Bears have played terrific down the final stretch of regular season action with all being considered. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 and is 6-1-1 ATS during their previous 8 contests. The Packers have been no slouches as well while winning 5 of their last 7 and averaged 31.2 points scored per game. The Packers are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 versus Chicago including a 38-20 blowout win at Soldier Field in their regular season opener. Urgency and desperation will be on the side of the Packers since with a win earns them an NFL Wildcard spot. Give me the Packers minus points. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-25 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Bengals @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Bengals +6.5 The Chiefs are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite of 8.5 or less. Furthermore, Kansas City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home, and 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season versus opponents that currently own a winning record. The Chiefs are also a concerning -10 turnover margin throughout their previous 8 games. Since taking over at starting quarterback for an injured Joe Burrow, Jale Browning has made 5 starts and averaged 303.0 yards passing per game, threw for 7 touchdowns, and ran for 2 scores. That’s a respectable job done from a backup quarterback. The Bengals are coming off last week’s extremely disappointing 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh which halted their 3-game win streak. Cincinnati is 8-7 and still contending for a Wildcard berth. Here’s the odd thing about the Bengals record this season, they’re a dismal 0-5 versus division opponents, and an impressive 8-2 in their other 10 games. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cincinnati is a very profitable 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5-points, and they won 7 of those 10 contests SU. Give me the Bengals plus points. |
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12-31-23 | Steelers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Seahawks 4::05 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Seahawks -3.5 Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-11 home win over Cincinnatti that kept their AFC Wildvcard hopes alive. I’m extremely confident that we’ll see a gross overreaction from the sports betting public as a result. The fact of the matter is I’ve been calling the Steelers a fraud for the last 2 months and 1 dominating performance with a 3rd string quarterback playing over his head isn’t about to change my mind. Although they haven’t attained the results they would have hoped for, Seattle has played very well down the stretch while going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. During that span, they faced San Francisco (11-4) twice, Dallas (10-5), Philadelphia (11-4), and the LA Rams (8-7). Furthermore, Seattle is 4-0 SU in non-division home games this season. Give me the Seahawks minus points. Play on any NFL favorite versus an opponent coming off a SU underdog win by 14 points or more who has a win percentage of between .450 to .550, resulted in those NFL favorites going 52-23 ATS (69.3%) since 1983. |
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12-31-23 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 19-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Ravens -3.0 The Dolphins have played an extremely soft schedule this season that has seen them face 11 teams that currently have a losing record in their first 15 games. Miami finally defeated a team with a winning record for the first time in 29 contests last Sunday in a 2-point home win over Dallas. The previous time they accomplished that feat was in September of 2022 and a 21-19 home win over Buffalo. It’s been quite a while since Miami defeated a team with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Miami has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 not played at home versus teams with a winning record and allowed 33.3 points per game. The Baltimore defense has played extremely well this season and they’ll be challenged on Sunday by a Miami team which averages 30.9 points scored per game. However, the Ravens are 6-0 SU&ATS this season when they faced a team that was averaging 24.0 or more points scored per contest and with an average victory margin of 21.8 points scored per game. Baltimore also will enter this extremely important AFC matchup on a 5-game win streak in which they outscored those opponents by an average of 12.0 points scored per game. The Ravens have also scored 31 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games played. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -4 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Colts -4.0 The Raiders are coming off a emotional 20-14 win at Kansas City as a double-digit underdog. Nevertheless, let’s keep things in perspective because both Raiders touchdowns were scored by their defense, and they faced a Kansas City offense which had been struggling offensively of late and turning the ball over way too much.  Truth be told, the Raiders offense produced just an atrocious 205 yards of total offense in that win at Kansas City. They’ve been anemic offensively on the road this season while averaging a scant 14.7 points scored and 236.9 yards gained per game while also being outscored by an average of 9.3 points per contest. The Colts started the season by losing 4 of their first 5 games at home. But they won their last 2 in Indianapolis with victories over Pittsburgh 30-14 and Tampa Bay 27-20 both of which currently have 8-7 records with each still alive for a playoff berth. Unlike the Raiders offensive struggles on the road, the Colts are averaging 27.0 points scored and 375.9 yards gained per game at home. The Colts are engulfed in a 3-way tie for first place in the AFC South standings with Houston and Jacksonville. Urgency, desperation, and playing at home will be instrumental to the Colts getting the win and cover. Give me the Colts minus points. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -6 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Ravens @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: 49ers -6.0 The 49ers are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 13.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by 22.0 points per game and with an average line of -6.3. As a matter of fact, San Francisco will enter tonight’s matchup on a 6-game win streak. Since the 2021-2022 season began, San Francisco is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home after winning 4 or more games in a row and with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have put together an excellent winning track record against NFC teams. Buth this 49ers squad is a whole different animal. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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12-24-23 | Cowboys +1.5 v. Dolphins | 20-22 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 7 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Dolphins 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Cowboys +1.5 Miami is 0-3 SU&ATS this season versus teams that currently have a winning record and they were outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, the Dolphins are 0-7 SU in their last 7 versus an opponent with a winning record. They haven’t accomplished the feat since beating Buffalo 21-19 during Week 3 of last season. Putting that into perspective, Miami has played 29 consecutive games without beating a team with a winning record. Dallas is coming off a humbling 31-10 loss at Buffalo in a game they were physically manhandled. I look forward to them coming back this week with a superlative effort. Dallas has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 23.3 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Dallas has gone 8-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. During that same time span, they’re also 6-0 SU&ATS on the road following a SU loss and won by 15.8 points per game. Give me the Cowboys. |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears -4 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Bears 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Bears -4.0 The Bears are coming off a tough 20-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday. However, Chicago is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. The Chicago defense has forced an impressive 14 turnovers during their previous 4 games. Chicago is 3-3 at home but probably deserves better when considering that they were a +72.7 yards per game in those contests. On the other hand, they’ll be facing an Arizona team that 1-6 SU on the road with a -9.7 point per game differential and were outgained by 83.6 yards per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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12-23-23 | Bills -12.5 v. Chargers | 24-22 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 24 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chargers 8:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Bills -12.5 The Chargers are a team in disarray and are playing with an interim head coach after the firing of Brandon Staley this past week. The Chargers were embarrassed before a Monday night national televion audience during a 63-21 loss at Las Vegas in a game they trailed 49-0 at halftime. Los Angeles has now lost their last 2, 5 of the last 6, and are now 5-9 (.357) on the season. Furthermore, the Chargers are 0-5 ATS this season as an underdog while being outscored by 14.4 points per game. During their current 1-5 funk in their last 6 they own an atrocious turnover margin of -11. Their only win in that span came at New England (3-11). Any NFL favorite of 10.5 or greater that has a winning record, versus an opponent that possesses a win percentage of .250 to .400 and has lost 2 or more games in a row, resulted in those favorites going 28-3 ATS (90.3%) since 2014. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Seahawks 8:15 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Seahawks +3.5 Philadelphia star quarterback Jalen Hurs is listed as questionable as he’s been battling an illness the last few days. The Eagles are 1-2 in their last 3. They’re lucky not to be 0-3 in those previous 3 if not for a 61-yard field goal by Jake Elliott on the last play of regulation time which sent the game to overtime and enabled them to escape with 37-34 win over Buffalo. The Eagles defense is a major concern of late. During those previously mentioned 3 contests they allowed 33 points or more on each occasion and an alarmingly high 451.7 yards per game. The Seahawks have lost 4 straight and are now 6-7 but still very march alive for a possible NFC Wild Card spot. It must be noted, those previous 4 losses were to San Francisco (11-3) twice, Dallas (10-4), and a Rams (7-7) team that’s won 4 of their last 5. Additionally, Seattle was an underdog in all 4 of those losses and covered on 3 of those occasions. Any NFL team like Seattle that’s facing an opponent like Philadelphia that’s allowing 24 or more points per game and gave up 30 points or greater in each of their previous 4 games, resulted in those teams like Seattle going 39-9 SU (81.3%) since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Since this money line betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added significance. Give me the Seahawks plus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Bears @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Browns -2.5 The Bears are getting a lot of love from bettors this week after going 3-1 in their last 4 and covering on each occasion. However, let’s not get carried away. Cleveland is 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Baltimore in a game that starting quarterback Deshaun Watson was a late scratch and was replaced by rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who was brutal. With Watson gone for the year due to injury, the Browns signed veteran Joe Flacco off the couch and in 3 has played more than respectable. Additionally, the Browns defense has been sensational in their 7 contests at home while allowing a mere 12.6 points and 192.4 yards per game. Give me the Browns minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bucs +3.5 v. Packers | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 It will be unseasonably warm in Green Bay with little chance of rain and winds below 10 MPH. That’s good news and a pleasant surprise for a warm weather team like Tampa Bay playing at Green Bay in December. The key to the Bucs covering and giving them a strong possibility of winning this game outright will be their ability to run the ball effectively. Hence, opening up plenty of favorable play action pass opportunities for Baker Mayfield and company. Green Bay’s run defense has been brutal despite them making a midseason postseason push. During their previous 5 contests, the Green Bay defense has allowed 170.4 yards per game on the ground and an alarmingly high 6.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Bucs running game was anemic for most of this season. However, during their last 3 outings they’ve rushed for 133.7 yards per game and averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay enters this week in a 3-way tie atop the NFC South Division. The Bucs have been very profitable on the road this season while going 6-1 ATS. Green Bay had their bubble burst and 3-game win streak halted in last Monday’s 24-22 road loss to the New York Giants. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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12-17-23 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Texans @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Texans +3.5 Yes, C.J. Stroud will not play for Houston this week after suffering a concussion during last Sunday’s 30-6 road loss to the Jets. However, his backup Davis Mills was the Texans starter the previous 2 seasons and is more than capable of giving them an reasonable opportunity to win and especially so against a below average team like Tennessee. You may be surprised to know that Houston has gone an extremely profitable 6-1 SU&ATS in division road game since the start of the 2021-2022 season. That includes a 37-17 blowout win over Jacksonville in their only division road game this season. Keep in mind, that means Davis Mills was 5-1 SU&ATS as a starter in division road games the past 2 seasons. Since Week 3, Houston is 4-0 SU following a loss. Tennessee is coming off last Monday’s huge 28-27 upset win over Miami in a game they were a 13.0-point underdog. Nonetheless, the Titans haven’t won 2 in a row all season and are 0-4 SU&ATS following a win. Lastly, the visiting teams are 5-0 SU in the last 5 games between these division rivals. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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12-16-23 | Steelers +2 v. Colts | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Colts 4:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Steelers +2.0 The Pittsburgh quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired with backup Mitchell Trubisky under center. However, the Steelers running game will be the difference in this matchup. During their previous 7 contests the Colts have allowed an alarmingly high 147.0 yards rushing per game in addition to 4.6 yards per attempt. Conversely, throughout their previous 6 contests the Steelers have rushed for 151.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt. The Steelers ability to run the ball effectively will set up some favorable play action passing opportunities for Trubisky and take a huge load off his shoulders. Furthermore, the Steelers are 2-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-division away underdog. Additionally, the Colts are 5-2 this season in neutral site and away games but a poor 2-4 at home. Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU&ATS on the road when the point-spread is between +3.0 and -3.0. On the other hand, during that identical time span, the Colts are 4-8 SU&ATS at home when the point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Once again since the 2021-2022 season consummated, Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 3.0 or less. Give me the Steelers plus points. |
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12-16-23 | Vikings v. Bengals -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 46 h 39 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bengals -3.0 Both teams have lost their starting quarterbacks for the season due to injury. However, I give a huge edge to Cincinnati when it comes to the backup quarterback situation. Jake Browning will be making his 4th start since taking over for Joe Burrow. During his first 3 starts he’s been nothing short of superb with all be considered while completing 79.3% for 856 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores. The Bengals are coming off a pair of wins over the Colts 34-14 and 34-31 at Jacksonville as a 10.0-point underdog. Conversely, the Vikings escaped with a 3-0 win at Las Vegas last Sunday. It was the 2nd straight listless offensive performance for Minnesota who 2 weeks ago lost 12-10 at home to Chicago. Cincinnati is 4-1 in non-division home game this season. Cincinnati has also been very good at protecting the football this season while committing just 11 turnovers through 13 games. That hasn’t been the case for Minnesota who has committed 24 turnovers this season. Finally, under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU&ATS in regular season games 13 through 17. Give me the Bengals minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Cowboys -3.5 Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Bills +1 v. Chiefs | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Bills +1.0 This point-spread jumped off the screen when I first looked with the Chiefs only opening as a 3.0-point home favorite. My eyes opened even wider this morning when I saw this line drop to 1.0 or a pick depending on the sportsbook. After all, Buffalo is 6-6 and the defending world champion Chiefs are 8-4. Especially since Kansas City has been so good at home and extremely tough to beat following a loss under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 20-4 SU in their last 24 at home. However, 2 of those 4 losses came versus Buffalo. Additionally, the Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 and 15-1 SU during their previous 16 immediately following a loss. The flip side to that equation is that Buffalo is 5-1 SU under head coach Sean McDermott following a scheduled bye week. The Bills are also much better than their 6-6 record with all those 6 defeats coming by a combined 26 points and each loss came by 6 points or fewer. Not to mention, 2 of those setbacks came in overtime. Buffalo will be in desperation and urgency mode knowing they have virtually no more room for error when it comes to making the playoffs. Give me the Bills in this one. |
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12-10-23 | Vikings -2.5 v. Raiders | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Vikings -2.5 After going through a stretch in which they went 5-0 SU&ATS, the Viking have lost their last 2 contests and by just a combined 3 points. They shot themselves in the foot in both losses by committing 7 turnover which were mostly the fault of starting quarterback Joshua Dobs. After much speculation earlier this week, Dobbs will remain the starter and will gladly welcome back star wide receiver Justin Jefferson back from an injury that forced him to miss 7 games. The Raiders (4-8) are a mess, and their offense has been anemic while scoring 17 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games. The Vikings are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS on the road this season when facing teams like the Raiders who currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. Their lone SU loss in that sequence was 21-20 at Denver in which they led for much of the game. The Vikings defense is a very underrated unit which has allowed only 20.2 points and 320.3 yards per game. Give me the Vikings minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Lions -3 v. Bears | 13-28 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
Lions @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Lions -3.0 The Bears have received a lot of love this week with regards to public betting. I am not one of those individuals. Yes, the Lions needed a late 26-14 deficit in their first meeting against Chicago by scoring 17 unanswered points in the last 3:05 to win 31-26. Let’s keep things in proper perspective, the Lions turned the ball over 4 times in that contest and had a -3 turnover margin and were still able to win. The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite this season and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. Conversely, the Bears are a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last 7 and 1-10 SU&ATS during their previous 11 as a division home underdog. The Lions are coming off last Sunday’s 33-28 win at New Orleans in which they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Bears are coming off a 12-10 win at Minnesota in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. NFL division road favorites that are coming off a non-division road ATS favorite cover, versus an opponent that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a game in which they allowed 20 points or fewer, resulted in those road favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1984. Those road favorites won those 11 contests by a decisive margin of 17.5 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -5.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Steelers -5.5 The Steelers are coming off a 24-10 loss to Arizona in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, Pittsburgh has yet to lose 2 straight games this season. As a matter of fact, the Steelers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss. New England is coming off a 6-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have now gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 games. Since winning their road season opener versus the Jets, New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in true away games and lost by an average of 14.0 points per contest. Pittsburgh is at a +10-turnover margin for the season while New England is -9 in that category. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. During that identical time span, New England is 4-10 ATS as an underdog and 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS following 2 straight games in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Any NFL favorite of 8.0 or less with a winning record, versus an opponent like New England that’s coming off 3 losses in a row in which they scored 7 points or fewer on each occasion, resulted in those favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 13.9 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Buccaneers -3.5 Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Lions v. Saints +4 | 33-28 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Saints +4.0 The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea. Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Chargers +3.0 The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win. The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss. Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play. |
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11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
Bills @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Bills +3.0 When you look at the raw data on this game, you have to question how Philadelphia is only a small favorite. After all, the Eagles are the defending NFC champion and are currently 9-1. On the other hand, Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season thus far on the way to a 6-5 record. However, the Bills 5 losses came by just a combined 23 points. Buffalo is coming off a 32-6 blowout home win over the Jets.  The Eagles are 4-0 at home but with only a +7.0 point per game differential. As a matter of fact, 3 of those 4 wins came by 6 points or fewer. The Eagle defense has been a bit of concern over their last 3 contests while allowing 23.7 points and 404.6 yards per game. Over the past 3 seasons, the Bills are 5-0 SU on the road in Games 10 through 13 and with an average victory margin of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL non-division away team playing in Games 10 through 13 who are coming off a division win by 10 points or more, and they’ve won 14 or more of their last 32 away games, resulted in those away teams going a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin in those 9 wins came by an average of 16.6 points per game. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets +10 | 34-13 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Jets 3:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Jets +10.0 The Jets are coming off a 32-6 blowout loss at Buffalo and didn’t come close to covering as a 10.0-point away underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). They’ll be playing the AFC East Division leading Miami Dolphins who are 7-3. NFL division home underdogs of between 1.5 to 13.0 with a win percentage of .636 or worse that are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they scored 6 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those division home underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1999. Those division home underdogs also went 10-8 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus points. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 3 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Lions -7.5 The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games versus Green Bay. Under current head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a SU win with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Green Bay is coming off last week’s home upset 23-20 win over the Chargers. The Packers are 0-3 SU following a win this season and failed to cover on 2 of those occasions. Any NFL division home favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 that playing in Game 3 through 12, and they scored 34 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS since 2002. Their average margin of victory during those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Chiefs 8:15 ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chiefs -2.5 No head coach in NFL history has his teams more prepared when coming off a regular season bye week than Andy Reid. He was the head coach for the Eagles for 14 years and followed that up with his current tenure in Kansas City which began in 2013. During that time, Reid’s teams have gone 23-3 SU in regular season games when coming off a bye week. Those SU results take on added significance in tonight’s game considering the Chiefs are laying such a small number. This year’s version of the the Chiefs isn’t nearly as explosive offensively as what we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. However, this may be the best defense they’ve had since Reid arrived in town. Kansas City has allowed 21 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games this season while holding opponents to less than 300 yards or total offense 5 times. Since the 2020-2021 season began, Kansas City is 4-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or less. Additionally, the Chiefs are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less when the total was between 42.5 and 49.0. They won those 7 contests by a decisive margin of 18.1 points per game. Since losing their home opener to Detroit 21-20, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 SU&ATS at Arrowhead Stadium with an average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Vikings +3.0 The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans -5.5 | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Texans -5.5 Arizona got a much-needed spark last Sunday with the season debut of star quarterback Kyler Murray and pulled out a 25-23 home win over Tampa Bay. However, this still isn’t a very good Cardinals team even with Murrays’ return. The Cardinals are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season while losing by an average of 15.4 points per game. After losing their first 2 games of the season Houston proceeded to win 5 of their next 7. The only losses in that sequence both took place on the road and came by exactly 2-points on each occasion. With a little bit of luck we could be talking about team on a 7-game win streak. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is the prohibitive favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year. The former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 15 touchdowns and has only been intercepted twice. He’s been especially exceptional over the last 2 games while throwing for 826 yards, 6 touchdowns, and was picked off just 1 time. Both those efforts were catalysts in Houston’s 39-37 win over Tampa Bay and 30-27 victory at Cincinnati. Furthermore, the Texans rushed for a season high 188 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals. Any NFL non-division favorite of 3.5 or greater like Houston that’s playing after Game 8, and they’re coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they scored 30 points or more, versus an opponent like Arizona who’s coming off a SU underdog win resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1995, and with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give ne the Texans minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Giants v. Commanders -8.5 | 31-19 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Commanders -8.5 Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Giants, they were crushed at Dallas last Sunday 49-17 and even failed to cover as a mammoth 17.0-points underdog. That came on the heels of a 30-6 blowout loss at Las Vegas the week before. The Giants defense allowed Dallas to rack up a massive 650 yards of total offense which included 472 yards through the air. Now they’ll be facing a young quarterback in Washington’s Sam Howell who’s truly come into his own during recent performances. Throughout his previous 3 games, Howell has gone 97-141 (68.8%) passing for 934 yards and 8 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions. The Commanders will be out to atone for an embarrassing 14-7 road loss to the Giants earlier this season. The Commanders defense will be facing a Giants offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 8 games. Now they’re down to 3rd string undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. DeVito was an average at best quarterback in college at Syracuse and Illinois where he underperformed as a 4-Star recruit coming out of high school. DeVito was 14-27 passing for 86 yards in his NFL starting debut at Dallas last week. When you have a 4-6 team like Washington that’s better than a touchdown favorite, it speaks to the ineptitude of the opponent they’re about to go up against. Give me the Commanders minus points. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Ravens -3.5 The Ravens are coming off a home favorite 33-31 SU loss to Cleveland last Sunday. That dropped their season record to a still very good 7-3 (.700). The Ravens will be able to move the ball with a high degree of efficiency against a vulnerable Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati is coming off a 30-27 home upset loss to Houston in a game they allowed the Texans to rack up 544 yards of total offense. That marked the 4th time in 9 games this season that the Bengals defense surrendered 400 yards or more. As a matter of fact, the Bengals defense ranks 30th total yards allowed and also 30th at stopping the run. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing offense while averaging 154.9 yards per game. Conversely, the Baltimore defense is #2 in yards allowed per game and they’re #1 at sacking the quarterback. Any regular season NFL favorite like Baltimore with a win percentage between .600 to .750 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss, and they’re playing after Game 8, versus an opponent like Cincinnati that’s coming off a loss and has a win percentage of .181 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 2016. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial margin of 21.9 points per game. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bills 8:15 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Bills -7.0 The Broncos are coming off last week’s 24-9 upset win as a 7.0-point home underdog over Kansas City. That victory improved their season record to 3-5 (.375). Since 2014, Denver is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in Monday night away games. The Broncos are also an abysmal 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 on the road when their point-spread was between -2.0 to +9.5 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game. Buffalo is coming off a Sunday night 24-18 loss at Cincinnati in a game they also failed to cover as a 1.5-point underdog. Despite the Bills offense falling under heavy criticism, they’re still #7 in total yards, #7 in scoring, and #2 in 3rd down conversion rate. They’ll be facing a Broncos defense that’s dead last in the NFL when it comes to points and yards allowed per game. The Denver stop unit has especially struggled in non-division contests while allowing 36.2 points and 464.6 yards per game. The Bills struggles have come on the road where they’re 1-4. However, Buffalo is 4-0 at home with an average victory margin of 16.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by 79.0 yards per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or greater like Buffalo that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus a non-division opponent like Denver with a win percentage of .333 or better who’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The average victory margin came by a decisive 19.0 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders +6 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Commanders +6.0 Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week. |
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11-12-23 | Texans +7 v. Bengals | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Texas @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: Texans +7.0 The Bengals are surging while having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. However, this has a good possibility of being a flat spot for them on Sunday. They will be without starting wide receiver Tee Higgins and their #1 pass catcher Jamaar Chase is listed as questionable. Additionally, Cincinnati is coming off a 24-18 home win over Buffalo in front of a national television audience and up next is a showdown with AFC North Division leader this coming Thursday. Sandwiched in between is this low profile game against a 4-4 Houston team.  Furthermore, despite their 5-3 record, Cincinnati has been outgained by an average of 71.7 yards per game. Houston’s rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a massive performance in last Sunday’s 39-37 home win over Tampa Bay. Stroud has thrown 14 touchdown passes this season while being intercepted only once and has averaged 283.8 yards passing yards per game. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
49ers @ Jaguars 1:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: 49ers -3.0 Talk about a fishy line. Jacksonville is a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. Conversely, San Francisco is 0-3 SU&ATS during their previous 3. Yet, it’s the 49ers who come up favorite in this spot. They’re pleading with you to take the home underdog here. My answer is thank you for the offer but I’m not taking the bait. Here’s the other thing, although Jacksonville is 6-2, both losses took place at home versus Houston and Kansas City. Their lone home win came over the Colts 37-20 in a game they were outgained in total yards by a wide margin of 354-233. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Saints v. Vikings +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 249-250 Play On: Vikings +3.0 After starting the season 0-3, the Vikings have rebounded well and are now 5-4. That includes going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Throughout their previous 6 contests, the Minnesota defense has been superb while allowing only 18.0 points and 300.8 yards per game. New Orleans is a respectable 3-2 on the road thus far. However, all 3 of those wins have came over teams that currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. As a matter of fact, this will be their first road game of the season versus a team that currently has a winning record. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears -3 | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Bears 8:15 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Bears -3.0 The Bears will stick to their offensive strength and that’s running the ball. Although the Bears are a poor 1-3 at home this season, they’ve averaged 157 yards rushing per contest and 4.7 yards per attempt. Conversely, Carolina is 0-4 SU&ATS on the road while losing by an average of 15.8 points per game and they surrendered 149 yards rushing per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3 v. Jets | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Jets 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chargers -3.0 This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me and when that occurs, I predominately go against what appears to be the obvious choice. The Chargers are 3-4 and the Jets 4-3. New York has won 3 consecutive games. However, it’s the Chargers who are better than a field goal road favorite versus an opponent with a better record. The Chargers are coming off a 30-13 home win over Chicago in which they covered as a 9.5-point favorite. Any NFL away favorite of 3.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 25.0 or less and scored 21 points or more, versus an opponent with a .400 or better win percentage, resulted in those away favorites like the Chargers going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 1984. Give me the Chargers minus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET Game# 8:20 PM ET Play On: Buffalo +2.5 A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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11-05-23 | Rams +3 v. Packers | 3-20 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rams @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Rams +3.0 I don’t care if it’s Mathew Stafford or Brett Rypien at quarterback for the Rams. I’m fading the Packers either way. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is looking more and more like a genuine first round bust. The Packers are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 contests. Furthermore, their previous 3 losses came versus Las Vegas, Denver, and Minnesota, none of which currently possess a winning record. The Rams are coming off back-to-back losses versus Pittsburgh and Dallas who have a combined 10-5 record. Any NFL road underdog of 3.5 or less like the Rams that’s coming off a SU loss who has a win percentage of .300 or better, versus an opponent like Green Bay who’s playing after Game 7 and has lost 4 or more games in a row with the last defeat coming by 10 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Those underdogs won all 15 of those contests SU and by an average of 8.5 points per game. Give me the Rams plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bucs +3 v. Texans | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Houston 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Tampa Bay +3.0 Despite their uninspiring 3-4 record which includes a current 3-game losing streak, Tampa Bay is still very much a contender in a wide open NFC South race. The Bucs have been much better on the road than at home this season while going 2-1 SU&3-0 ATS during those contests. Houston is coming off a 15-13 road loss to then winless Carolina which dropped their season record to 3-4. Any NFL away underdog of 4.0 or less like Tampa Bay that has a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent like Houston that’s coming off a SU loss and they possess a win percentage of .400-.490, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 2012. The away underdogs also won 14 of those 16 contests straight up. Give me Tampa Bay plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders +3 v. Patriots | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Patriots 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +3.0 New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in non-division contests this season while losing by an average of 19.5 points per game. The Patriots are also a poor 1-3 SU&ATS at home and the only time they were a favorite in those 4 contests they failed miserable during a 34-0 blowout loss to New Orleans. New England has been anemic offensively in their dismal 2-6 start to the season while averaging a mere 14.8 points scored per game and 284.8 yards gained per contest. Washington is coming off a disheartening 38-31 home loss to the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and pushed as a 7.0-point underdog. They outgained the Eagles in that contest by a wide margin of 472-374 and also squandered an early 14-3 lead. However, Washington is a more than respectable 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road thus far. The Commanders are also a profitable 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog. Give me the Commanders plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | 16-20 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Titans @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Titans +3.0 Tennessee is coming off a much needed 28-23 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. 2023 first round draft choice quarterback Will Levis was brilliant in his starting debut while throwing for 4 touchdowns against 0 interceptions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-10 loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Steelers have a deceiving 4-3 record. I say that because they’ve been outscored by 4.9 yards and outgained by 110.9 yards per game. Not exactly the type of numbers that’s conducive to a winning record. Their defense has been very good, but the offense has been a polar opposite and that’s atrocious. The Steelers have scored just 9 offensive touchdowns throughout their 7 games this season. Any NFL non-division away underdog of 3.0 or less like Tennessee that’s coming off a home underdog SU win in which they covered by 6.5-points or greater, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2019. Give me the Titans plus points. |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers -5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: 49ers -5.0 Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else. San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts +2.5 | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
Saints @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Colts +2.5 The Colts have shot themselves in the foot with turnovers in recent games. Otherwise, their offense has been very good over the last 3 contests, and they outgained opponents by 114.0 points per game during that stretch. New Orleans is 2-2 SU on the road, but their 2 wins came over Carolina and New England that have a combined 2-11 record thus far. Give me the Colts plus points. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Eagles | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina. Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers v. Chiefs -5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Chiefs -5.0 The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 home loss to Dallas which dropped their season record to an underachieving 2-3 (.400). The Chargers have lost 3 consecutive games to Kansas City, but all 3 defeats came by 6 points or fewer. However, this is a much better Chiefs defense than the ones they faced in the previous 3 meetings. I’ve heard a lot of chatter this week about Kansas City being an overvalued home favorite in recent years. However, my trusted 4d Handicapping Software Program tells me differently. The Chiefs are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 and 12-7 ATS during their previous 19 as a home favorite. That includes 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS when facing opponents like the Chargers that are coming off a SU loss, and with a decisive average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. The Chiefs have won 5 in a row since an opening night 21-20 home loss to Detroit (5-1). During that stretch, this current win streak, Kansas City’s defense has allowed an average of 13.4 points and 267.2 yards per contest. The Chiefs will also being playing with an additional 3 days rest after defeating Denver 19-8 in a Thursday night game. Any NFL division favorite of -4.5 to -12.5 like Kansas City who’s coming off a division win, versus an opponent like the Chargers who are coming off a SU loss and have a win percentage of between .187 and .428, resulted in those division favorites going 8-0 ATS since 2019. Those teams won those 8 contests by a substantial margin of 16.6 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus the points. |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +3.5 | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Browns @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Colts +3.5 The Browns are coming off a huge upset win as a home underdog of +9.5 over the previously unbeaten 49ers. They did so while starting their 3rd quarterback (P.J. Wlaker) in 5 games. Although the Cleveland defense has been spectacular, the same can’t be said for their offense. Despite their 3-2 (.600) record, Cleveland is averaging only 19.0 points scored and 319.8 yards gained per game. The Browns have yet to win 2 in a row and are 0-2 SU&ATS following a victory. The Colts are coming off a 37-20 loss at Jacksonville. That margin of victory was deceiving when considering they held a 354-233 totals yards advantage in that contest. They were plagued by a season high 4 offensive turnovers. Despite the defeat, the Colts are still a respectable 3-3 and that includes 2-0 SU&ATS following a loss. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .333 or better like the Colts that’s playing after Game 5, and they’re coming off a road loss, versus an opponent like the Browns that are coming off an upset SU win as a home underdog of +7.0 or greater, resulted in those home teams going 25-0 SU since 1995. Considering the SU betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on even added significance. Give me the Colts plus the points. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars +2 v. Saints | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Saints 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Jaguars +2.0 Much of the storyline for NFL bettors leading up to this game hinges on the availability of Jacksonville starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence who is listed as questionable with a knee injury. However, you cans do a lot worse than C.J. Beathard as your backup quarterback. Beathard proved in his time in San Francisco that he can temporarily step in and give his team a chance to win. During his last season with the 49ers in 2020, he appeared in 6 games and tossed 6 touchdown passes versus 0 interceptions. The Jaguars enter this contest riding a 3-game win streak. Jacksonville is 3-0 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and road games with a 10.3 point per game differential. Jacksonville is also a noteworthy +7 this season in the turnover differential category. They’ll be facing a Saints team that began the season 2-0 and has lost 3 of 4 since. The Saints rely heavily on their stellar defense because their offense has left much to be desired. Since 2021, the Saints are an uninspiring 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS at home. Any NFL away team like Jacksonville with a point-spread of +2.5 to -3.0 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent like New Orleans who played their previous 2 games on the road, and that opponent is playing in Games 5 through 9, resulted in the away teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those contests came by a substantial margin of 14.3 points per game. Give me the Jaguars plus points. |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia. Â The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover. NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983. Â If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Chiefs -10.0 The weather won’t be ideal in Kansas City on Thursday night with the forecast calling for a 62% chance of rain and winds of 22 to 25 MPH. The Chiefs unequivocally have the better defense and quarterback in this matchup. I look for that to be a huge factor in us attaining the cover when considering the expected weather conditions. Teams tend to lean more heavily on their running games in situations such as these. Denver has been atrocious versus the run over their last 4 contests while allowing 251.7 yards per game and an alarmingly high 7.1 yards per attempt. Conversely, the Chiefs are allowing only 16.0 points and 301.4 yards per game throughout a 4-1 start to the season which includes a current 4-game unbeaten streak. During this current win streak, the Chiefs defense is allowing only 14.7 points and 284.8 yards per game. Additionally, since 2021 Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home when on a 4-game or more win streak and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Cowboys +4.0 Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion. Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Rams 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Rams +4.0 The Eagles enter Week 5 with a perfect 4-0 record. However, they really own just 1 impressive win which came at Tampa Bay. Their other 3 wins came over Minnesota (1-3), New England (1-3), and Washington (2-3) by a combined 14 points. Conversely, the Rams are 2-2 and their lone defeats came by a combined 10 points. Los Angeles is also 3-0 ATS since the start of last season as a home underdog of 2.5 to 6.5-points and won 2 of those 3 contests SU. Any home underdog of 2.0 or greater with a win percentage of .461 or better that’s coming off an an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 13.0 or less, versus an opponent like the Eagles with a win percentage of .733 or better, resulted in those home underdogs like the Rams going 15-0-1 ATS since 1986. Those home underdogs also won 1 of those 16 games straight up. The average line for those home underdogs was +3.9 and they outscored the favorites by an average of 4.9 points per game. Give me the Rams plus the points. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Cardinals 4:05 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Cardinals +3.5 The Bengals are the biggest early season disappointment thus far. They’re 1-3 and the lone win was a narrow 19-16 decision at home versus the Rams. Cincinnati has been completely listless in their 2 road games thus far while losing 24-3 versus Cleveland and 27-3 at Tennessee last Sunday. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati is averaging just 12.3 points scored and 236.0 yards of total offense per game thus far. Arizona is 1-3 thus far but covered 3 of those 4 contests. During their previous 3 games Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals offense has shown encouraging signs while averaging 24.0 points and 380.3 total yards per contest. They also didn’t commit any turnovers in those 3 contests. |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -13.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: 49ers -13.5 These are water I very rarely swim in which is laying a double-digit number when it comes to NFL betting. However, there’s an exception to every rule and this one qualifies under that heading. The oddsmakers seem undeterred that the Cardinals (1-2) are coming off an impressive 28-16 win over Dallas in a game they closed as an 11.5-point home underdog and considering their 2 losses came by just a combined 7 points. However, they’ll be facing a beat on Sunday in San Francisco who’s 3-0 and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 90-42. Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 or greater Like San Francisco that’s facing an opponent coming off a home underdog of 4.0 or more SU win, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 15-0 SU&ATS since 2002. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by an average of 24.6 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs +5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Buccaneers +5.0 Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents. Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways.  Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards. Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | 6-20 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Lions 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Falcons +3.5 Any NFL non-division away underdog of between +2.0 to +5.0 like Atlanta that’s playing in Games 2 through 8 and is facing an opponent like Detroit that’s coming off a SU loss, resulted in those teams like Atlanta going 21-0 ATS since 2019. Those underdogs also went 20-0-1 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Falcons plus points. |
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09-24-23 | Titans v. Browns -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Titans @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Browns -3.0 (-120) The Browns are coming off an away favorite SU loss at Pittsburgh last Monday night. The Titans are coming off last Sunday’s 27-24 overtime win over the Chargers in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. Any NFL non-division home favorite of between 2.5 to 12.5 points that’s coming off a division away favorite SU loss, and they’re facing an opponent that’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests came by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. Give me the Browns minus points. |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
Giants @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Giants +10.0 The Giants are coming off a thrilling 31-28 win at Arizona this past Sunday in which they overcame a lete 3rd quarter 28-7 deficit. Unfortunately, their star running back Saquon Barkley was hurt on their winning drive and is listed as doubtful. It must be noted, the Giants elected to stay on the west coast which is a great idea considering the short turnaround of playing their 2nd game in 5 days. Despite the injury of Barkley, and all the other factors stacking up against the Giants, we haven’t seen hardly if any line movement since the Sunday night opening odds were released. Since Brian Daboll took over as head coach of the Giants, his team has gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS as an underdog when coming off a SU win. The 49ers will be playing in their home opener after starting the season with 2 road wins. However, since 2005, NFL teams playing their home opener in Game 3 of the season, and they’re a favorite of 4.5 or greater, resulted in those home favorite going 5-15 ATS. Since 2019, away teams playing in either Game 2 or Game 3 who are coming off a road contest in which they scored 16 points or more, and they won 4 or more games the year before, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS since 2019. Those away teams also went 18-3-1 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins -2 v. Patriots | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Dolphins -2.0 Tua and the Dolphins offense was magnificent in last Sunday’s 36-34 road win over the Chargers in a game they racked up 533 yards of total offense. New England is coming off a 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia in a game they failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. That makes New England 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per contest. Miami is 4-1 SU and 5-0 in their last 5 versus Miami. Their only SU loss occurred in last season regular season finale 23-21 at New England. That was a game that Miami’s 3rd string quarterback started due to Tua and Teddy Bridgewater being injured. Since 2018, NFL away teams playing in a Game 2 like Miami who’s coming off an away win in their season opener, resulted in those teams going 7-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 12.4 points per game. Give me the Dolphins minus points. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -8 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Cowboys -8.0 Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points. |
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09-17-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Falcons | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
Packers @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Packers +2.5 Green Bay is coming off a convincing 38-20 win in their season opener at Chicago. Atlanta won their season opener with a 24-10 home win over Carolina which was more the result of facing a rookie quarterback and lousy opponent more than anything else. As a matter of fact, Atlanta was only able to muster 221 yards of total offense and was beneficiaries of a turnover margin of +3. Additionally, their defense allowed 154 yards rushing to the Panthers. Look for Green Bay running backs Aaron Jones and Corey Dillon to have big days and that will pave the way for us to cash a winning ticket. Since 2019, NFL non-division away teams like the Packers who are +3.0 to -3.0 coming off an away game, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 4 of regular season action, resulted in those teams going 13-1-3 (93%) ATS and 15-2 SU. Give me the Packers. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Eagles 8:15 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: Vikings +6.5 The Eagles walked away with a 25-20 win at New England last Sunday in a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. They also covered that contest as a 4.0-point favorite to boot. New England outgained Philadelphia in total yards by a decisive margin of 382-251. The Eagles nearly squandered an early 16-0 lead and ultimately the difference came down to a pick-6 thrown by Mac Jones in the 1st quarter. Conversely, the Vikings lost their season opener at home to Tampa Bay 20-17 in a contest by all rights they should’ve have won if not for a turnover margin of -3. Minnesota outgained Tampa Bay in total yards by a wide margin of 369-242. The Vikings will be playing with revenge stemming from a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia in ironically enough Week 2 of last season. Look for the Vikings to be not so unlucky this week and Philadelphia not as fortunate as each team was in Week 1. Any NFL away underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 like Minnesota is that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss by 5 points or fewer, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 1.0-point or more, resulted in those away underdogs going a perfect 11-0 ATS and a compelling 10-1 SU since 1990. Give me the Vikings plus the points. |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | 40-0 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 0 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Giants 8:20 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Giants +3.5 Giants head coach Brian Daboll did a terrific job last season in his first year on the job. The Giants wre 9-7-1 in regular season action and made the playoffs as a NFC Wildcard team. They then went on the road and beat a 13-4 Minnesota team 31-24 before being eliminated by defending NFC champion Philadelphia the following week. Yes, the Giants lost both regular season matchups versus Dallas last season. However, both were one score games. By the way, during Daboll’s first year as head coach in New York the Giants were a terrific 7-1 ATS as an underdog of 5.5 or less and they won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Since 2011, any NFL Game 1 division home underdog of between 2.5 and 5.5 like the Giants are, resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS and 9-1-1 SU. Give me the Giants plus points. |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins v. Chargers -3 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Chargers -3.0 I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater. Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play. |
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09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Browns +2.5 Cleveland has gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 meeting versus Cincinnati and that includes winning 5 straight at home in this divisional series. Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Cleveland, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Browns plus points. |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +3 | 30-7 | Loss | -125 | 45 h 40 m | Show | |
49ers @ Steelers 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Steelers +3.0 Under head coach Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season openers. That includes 0-2 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.0 or less. As a matter of fact, San Francisco dropped their season opener last season while suffering a 19-10 loss at Chicago in a game they close as a 6.5-point favorite, and versus a Bears team that finished the 2022-2023 season 3-14. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 season openers under current head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is also 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home when there was a total of 37.0 or greater and their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5. Since 2009, Game 1 NFL division home underdogs of 5.5 or less like Pittsburgh, and they won 3 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those season opener division home underdogs going 16-2 ATS, and they won 15 of those 18 contests straight up. Give me the Steelers plus points. |
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09-10-23 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Falcons -3.5 Both teams went 7-10 SU last season and split their season series with the home team winning on both occasions. The Falcons finished the season 6-2 SU in their last 8 at home. Carolina is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at Atlanta as an underdog of 3.0 or greater while losing by an average of 11.2 points per game. Any NFL division home favorite of 4.0 or less that’s playing in their opening game that won 7 games or more during the previous season, and there’s a total of 42.5 or less, versus an opponent like Atlanta that won 6 or more games the year before, resulted in those divisional home favorites going 17-1 ATS (94.4%). Those favorites also went 18-0 SU during those contests and won by an average of 11.0 points per game. Give me the Falcons minus points. |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*) The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit. Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game. NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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01-21-23 | Giants +8 v. Eagles | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
New York @ Philadelphia 8:15 PM ET Game#303-304 Play On: Giants +8.0 (5*) The Giants are an extremely profitable 8-1 ATS in neutral site and away games this season. They also won 5 of those 9 contests straight up. That includes 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU as underdogs of 9.5 or less, and if their opponent had a win percentage of .583 or better, New York improved to 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU. The Giants have committed just 1 turnover over their previous 3 games. Philadelphia has forced 1 turnover or less in each of its last 6 games. NFL underdogs of between 3.5 to 10 like the Giants who committed 1 turnover of fewer in each of their last 3 games, versus an opponent like the Eagles who has forced 1 turnover or fewer in each of their last 2, resulted in those underdogs going 37-8 ATS (82.2%) during the last 5 seasons. That includes an ever better 18-3 ATS over the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs +2.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 46 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Tampa Bay 8:15 PM ET Game# 151-152 Play On: Tampa Bay +2.5 (10*) The Cowboys have gone 0-3 SU&ATS this season as an away favorite of 7.5 or less and when facing an opponent who has a losing record. Dallas allowed an alarmingly high 32.3 points per game in those losses. Dallas had a stellar regular season record of 12-5 (.705).  However, NFL Postseason away favorites of 2.5 or less who have a win percentage of worse than .722 are 0-10 ATS and 2-8 SU since 1980. Dallas has an average line difference of +3.94 points per game. Conversely, Tampa Bay is at -6.08 points per game. The Bucks enter the postseason with an uninspiring 8-9 (.471) record. Dallas has gone just 15-17 in their last 32 away games. This sets up a powerful never lost NFL Playoffs betting angle which is displayed below that goes against conventional NFL point-spread handicapping wisdom. NFL Playoffs home teams like Tampa Bay who have a win percentage of .625 or worse and their average line difference per game is -0.1 or worse, versus an opponent like Dallas who’s won 16 or fewer of its last 32 away games and their average line difference per game is +0.5 or better, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The home teams won those 14 postseason contests by an average of 16.0 points per game. Give me Tampa Bay plus the points. |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -13.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
Buffalo @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Buffalo -13.5 (5*) Buffalo enters this Wildcard Round on a 7-game win streak. As a matter of fact, the Bills have a season record of 13-3, and those trio of defeats came only by a combined 8 points. With a little bit of luck, we could be talking about an NFL team having an undefeated regular season for a first time since New England did it in 2007. In any event, 1 of those 3 losses came at Miami in a game the Bills outgained the Dolphins by a massive 285 yards. Buffalo won the rematch at home 32-29 and racked up another 446 yards of total offense. This time around, Miami will be missing Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and most likely will start 3rd stringer Skylar Thompson. Buffalo possesses a strong home field having gone 24-8 in their last 32 played in Orchard Park and that includes 3-0 during postseason action. The last 2 of which were victories by scores of 17-3 over Baltimore and 47-17 against New England. Miami limps into the post season with an uninspiring 9-8 record and that includes going 1-5 in their last 6. This will be Miami’s first playoff game since 1/8/2017 when they lost at Pittsburgh 30-12. Conversely, since that last Miami postseason appearances, Buffalo has played in 12 playoff games and all under current head coach Sean McDermott. Don’t undervalue postseason experience when handicapping at this time of year, and a huge advantage Buffalo. Since 1995, NFL Playoffs 1st Round home favorites of 10.5 or more like Buffalo who have won 24 or more of its last 32 at home, versus an opponent like Miami with a win percentage of .647 or worse, resulted in those double-digit home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1995. The average victory margin for those 13 contests came by an average of 19.0 points per game. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
LA Chargers at Jacksonville 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Jacksonville +2.5 (5*) The Chargers closed the regular season with a 31-28 loss at Denver. They allowed an anemic Denver offense to rack up 471 yards of total offense. The Chargers faced Jacksonville at home earlier this season (9/25) and got hammered 38-14 as a 6.5-point favorite. Jacksonville was revived from the dead after a 4-8 start to the season and finished regular season action on a 5-game win streak. The last of those wins coming in a 20-16 home win over Tennessee and enabled them to win the AFC South Division with a pedestrian 9-8 record. However, momentum is a scary thing for opponents going up against it on the road in the postseason. What’s been extremely encouraging has been the Jaguars defense over its last 3 games. During that stretch they allowed a mere 7.3 points and 272.0 yards per game. Putting that into proper perspective, the Jags held their opponents to 13.3 points and 81.3 yards below their season average which is a sign of a unit jelling at the right time. By, the way, Jacksonville won their last 4 at home with 3 of those coming as underdogs. One more note, the jaguars Doug Pederson has gone 14-4 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as a home underdog, and his teams outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. NFL teams like Jacksonville that are facing an opponent like the Chargers who are playing with same season revenge stemming from a defeat in which they scored 14 points or fewer, and those oppponents are coming off a road loss, resulted in teams like the Jaguars going 40-13 (75.5%) SU over the previous 5 seasons. Give me Jacksonville plus the small number. |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*) Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871)  and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival. Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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01-08-23 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
NY Jets @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Miami -3.0 (5*) Any NFL favorite of 3.0 or more like Miami that has a win percentage of less than .750, versus an opponent like the Jets who is coming off SU favorite losses in each of their previous 2 games, and they possess a win percentage of ..400 to .490, resulted in those teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The average margin of victory in those 14 wins came by 16.0 points per game. Give me Miami minus the points. |
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01-08-23 | Panthers v. Saints -3.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
Carolina @ New Orleans 1:00 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*) I can’t help but think that Carolina will be mentally spent after what transpired last week. They were presented with an excellent opportunity to steal an NFL South Division Title when it seemed unfathomable to think after firing their head coach and trading away its best player earlier this season. We’re talking about a Panthers team that started the season 1-5 and was still a terrible 2-7 through 9 games. However, in a must win game last week at Tampa Bay and their division title hopes handing in the balance, Carolina sustained a heartbreaking 30-24 loss and we eliminated from contention. That’s a tough emotional obstacle to overcome when playing in a regular season finale just 7 days later, and do so on the road to boot. Despite now being 6-10, Carolina has gone a miserable 1-6 on the road. Additionally, since 2020 Carolina is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS when coming off a loss by 6 points or fewer, and that worsens to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS if those were away games. New Orleans is finishing the year strong despite being eliminated from realistic playoff aspiration a long while ago. The Saint enter Week 18 riding a 3-game win streak in which they allowed a mere 12.7 points and 294.0 yards per contest. Ride the season ending momentum with the Saints. Give me New Orleans minus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Rams +6.5 v. Chargers | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Rams @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 129-130 Play On: Rams +6.5 (5*) Don’t expect the 5-10 Rams to lay down in this game just because their playoff hopes were put to rest for few weeks now. All you need to do in look at their 51-14 home win over Denver last week. Granted, the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. However, we are a sizable underdog in a game in which both teams share the same stadium. Nonetheless, the Rams are the designated road team on Sunday. NFL regular away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 with a win percentage of .625 or worse like the Rams who are playing after Game 14, and they’re coming off a home win, resulted in those away underdogs of 4.0 to 8.5 going 18-0 ATS since 2014. Those underdogs also went a very respectable 9-9 SU in those contests. Give me the Rams plus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*) The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games. Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit. NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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01-01-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Patriots | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Patriots 4:25 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Dolphins +3.0 (5*) I firmly believe there’s been too much emphasis on Tua being out for this huge AFC East battle with playoff implications. The Dolphins backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has started and played in some big games when a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Miami is coming off a 26-20 loss to Green Bay in a game they were a 3.5-point home favorite. Conversely, New England was handed a 22-18 loss by Cincinnati and failed to cover as a 3.0-point home underdog. That dropped the Patriots season record to 7-8. NFL division road underdogs like Miami that are coming off a home favorite SU loss, versus an opponent like New England that has a losing record and is coming off a home underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road underdogs going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdogs not only covered in all those contests, but they won each one outright and by an average of 7.2 points per game. Give me the Dolphins plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Commanders +7 v. 49ers | 20-37 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Commanders @ 49ers 4:05 ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Commanders +7.0 (5*) Washington still controls their own postseason destiny despite last week’s disappointing 20-12 loss to the New York Giants. They currently have a ½ game lead over Detroit and Seattle for the final NFC wildcard berth. The Commanders have gone an excellent 4-0-1 SU in their last 5 away games. The 49ers have things locked up in the NFC West and it’s now a matter of whether they can catch Minnesota for the #2 seed in the NFC. The 49ers defense has received a ton of accolades and rightfully so. Nonetheless, Washington has allowed 21 points or fewer in each of their last 10 games while also holding opponents to less than 300 yards in 5 of those contests. Washington will give an excellent San Francisco team all they can handle and then some. Give me the Commanders plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Giants @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Giants +4.0 (5*) The Giants are coming off last Sunday’s huge 20-10 road win over Washington in a game that had major postseason implications. That victory improved their season record to 8-5-1 (.607). The Giants have gone a very profitable 5-1 ATS on the road this season and won 4 of those SU. Meanwhile, Minnesota overcame a 33-0 halftime deficit in last Saturday’s 39-36 overtime win versus Indianapolis. Despite their impressive 11-3 record, Minnesota is averaging outscoring their opponents by 0.2 points per game. They’ve seen 5 of their 11 wins come by 4 points or fewer. The Vikings defense has really struggled during the 2nd half of the season. Specifically speaking, throughout their previous 6 contests, Minnesota has allowed 31.3 points and 440.7 yards per game. NFL teams like the Giants that are coming off a division win in which they allowed 7 or more points, and they have a win percentage of less than .750, versus a team like Minnesota who’s coming of a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in teams like the Giants going 17-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2017. Furthermore, they went 14-4 SU in those exact situations as well. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Baltimore -6.0 (5*) The strength of Atlanta’s offense is their running game and especially so during the 2nd half of this season. However, they’ll be facing a Baltimore defense which has held 10 of 14 opponents this season to 88 yards or less rushing and is #3 in the NFL against the run. On the other hand, Baltimore possesses the #2 rushing offense in the NFL at 164.7 yards per game. The Ravens will be facing an Atlanta defense which has allowed an average of 171.2 yards per game on the ground over their previous 5 contests. Give me Baltimore minus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Eagles -8.5 v. Bears | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ Chicago 1:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Philadelphia -8.5 (5*) Philadelphia’s offense has been red-hot throughout their previous 3 contests while averaging 41.0 points and 463.3 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off last week’s convincing 48-22 road win over the Giants. They’ll be facing a Chicago team that’s gone 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 and allowed 33.5 points per game during that stretch. NFL favorites of 6.5 or greater playing after Game 8 like Philadelphia who possess a winning record, and they’re coming off a road win by 21 points or more, versus a team like Chicago with a losing record, resulted in those favorites of 6.5 or greater going 22-3 (88%) ATS since 2013. Give me Philadelphia minus the points. |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers -3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*) Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins. The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings. Give me Carolina minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 12 m | Show | |
Baltimore @ Cleveland 4:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Cleveland -2.5 (5*) Here we are entering Week 15 of the NFL season, and we have a 5-8 team (Cleveland) as a favorite over a 9-4 (Baltimore) opponent. Yes, Baltimore is without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, but this line still speaks volumes to me. NFL betting history over the last 27 season has shown that losing teams that are favorite over winning teams this late in the year have been a strong play on. NFL favorites like Cleveland playing after Game 12 with a losing record, versus teams like Baltimore who own a win percentage of .692 or better, resulted in those favorites going 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS since 1996. If those losing teams were favorites of 3.5 or less, they improved to 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS throughout that identical time span with a substantial average victory margin of 17.6 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points. |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 42 h 41 m | Show | |
Indianapolis @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Indianapolis +4.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me when considering the disparity between these team’s records. Minnesota is 10-3 while the Colts come in at 4-8-1 and that includes losing 6 of its last 7 games. Additionally, Minnesota is 6-1 at home this season and Indianapolis is 2-4-1 on the road including a 54-19 loss at Dallas in their previous game. Yet, the Vikings are just a 4.0-point home favorite. However, despite their 10-3 record the Vikings have average 24.0 points scored and 24.1 points allowed per game. Yes, the Colts allowed 54 points to Dallas in their previous outing, but more had to do with them committing 5 turnovers than shoddy defensive play. As a matter fact, the Cowboys outgained the Colts by only 73 yards in that 35-point win. Minnesota is coming off a loss of their own by a score of 34-23 at Detroit. NFL non-division away underdogs like Indianapolis who are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing a team like Minnesota who is coming off a SU loss, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-0 ATS since 1983. What’s even more astonishing is those away underdogs also went an incredible 19-3 SU in those contests. The average line in those 22 games was 6.3. Give me Indianapolis plus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Seattle -3.5 (5*) Carolina is coming off a 23-10 home win over a hapless Denver team which is now on current 0-4 and 1-8 losing runs. They were also the lowest scoring offensive team in the NFL. That won’t be the case this week as Seattle posses the #5 scoring offense in the NFL and they’ve averaged a lofty 28.6 points scored per game over their last 6 contests. Moreover, Carolina hasn’t won 2 consecutive games all season long. Additionally, the Seahawks are coming off last week’s 27-23 road win over the Rams which improved their season record to 7-5. They’re tied with the Giants for the final NFC Wildcard spot and hold the tiebreaker over New York because they already beat them earlier this season. With the Giants facing Philadelphia (11-1) this week and considering this is a very winnable game for the Seahawks, it bodes well for Seattle playing with a high degree of urgency and desperation. Give me Seattle minus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*) Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games. NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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