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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Michigan -4.5 The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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01-01-24 | Texas -3.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Texas -3.5 This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points. |
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12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5 Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon -9.5 This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game. Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Michigan -3.0 Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Kansas State -9.5 So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Central Florida +2.5 | Top | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: UCF +2.5 Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is. College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Penn State v. Maryland +9 | Top | 51-15 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Maryland +9.0 #9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests. Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET Game# 163-164 Play On: Wyoming +5.0 Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points. |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State v. UNLV -7 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: UNLV -7.0 UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games. Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points. |
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10-07-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +1.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Texas A&M +1.5 Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban. Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. |
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09-23-23 | BYU v. Kansas -9.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 343-344 Play On: Kansas -9.5 BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest. Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday. Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Florida +6.5 Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112. College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0 Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico. Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points. |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State -8 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*) This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses. Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC. Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-03-22 | Toledo v. Ohio +3 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*) These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession. Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts. Give me Oregon State plus the points. |
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11-12-22 | TCU v. Texas -7 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*) I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners. If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well. College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest. Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*) This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time. Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week. |
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10-29-22 | Wake Forest v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*) Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1. Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below. Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota +5 v. Penn State | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*) Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt. Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright. We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-15-22 | Nebraska v. Purdue -14 | Top | 37-43 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*) Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite. Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State v. USC -12.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: USC -12.5 (10*) This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon. Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons. Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game. Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*) Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College. Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task. Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner. |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +6 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*) Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*) Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater. Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave. Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-03-22 | Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Army +2.5 (10*) Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them. Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Alabama 8:27 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Georgia -2.5 (10*) These teams squared off just 5 weeks ago in the SEC Championship game and Alabama won 41-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. The Crimson Tide offense racked up 536 yards versus the vaunted Georgia defense which included a huge day from Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite that convincing win, Alabama is currently a 2.5-point underdog, and the public is betting on Alabama like it’s found money on their doorsteps. Even with that poor performance versus Alabama, Georgia’s defense still ranks #1 nationally in points allowed (9.5 PPG) and #2 in yards allowed (254.4 YPG). This elite stop unit was embarrassed versus Alabama and look for them to come up with a huge effort tonight. The Georgia defense has received a plethora of accolades all season and rightfully so. However, Georgia’s offense has quietly averaged a quite impressive 46.6 points scored, and 486.5 yards gained per game over its last 6 contests. That includes racking up 449 yards in the loss to Alabama. The first time these teams met Georgia entered that contest 12-0 and was 99.9% sure that even with a loss they were going to be in the 4-team College Football Playoffs. Conversely, Alabama didn’t have that same luxury since they already had 1 loss on their regular season resume and it was highly improbable they would be part of the 4-team field as a 2-loss team. As a result, the Crimson Tide played with a far higher degree of urgency and desperation than Georgia displayed. I’m betting on Georgia to turn the table on their SEC rival. Lastly, Georgia has lost their last 7 meetings with Alabama, and yet here they are still a favorite in a National Championship Game. Alabama in this matchup. Bet Georgia minus the small number. |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4 v. Ohio State | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Utah vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET Game# 281-282 Play On: Utah +4.0 (10*) Ohio State had the much higher aspirations this season of winning a national championship compared to Utah. Nevertheless, they failed to even reach the Big 10 Championship Game and were dominated in a 42-27 loss to Michigan during their regular season finale. The Buckeyes will be missing their top 2 wide receivers in this contest who combined to score 25 touchdowns and amass just shy of 2000 receiving yards this season. Utah has won its first ever PAC-12 Championship in football and will be making their Rose Bowl debut. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll have an emotional edge in this game as a result. Not to mention, Utah enters this contest on a 6-game win streak which included a pair of blowout wins over #15 Oregon. All 3 Utah losses this season have come by single-digit margins. Bet Utah plus the points for my “Bowl Game of the Year”. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 101 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*) Michigan has been a nice story this season in a year that head coach Jim Harbaugh entered on the proverbial hot seat. The former Wolverines quarterback has his team peaking at the right time. Here’s where the issue for me comes in with regards to backing Michigan. The Wolverines have run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays this season and they’ll be facing a Georgia defense which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs stop units is also tied for 4th nationally with 42 sacks. Georgia was embarrassed in their 41-24 SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give them a pass since win or lose they 100% knew a college football playoff invitation awaited. Georgia was a 6.0-point favorite in that defeat. The good news, Georgia is 4-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they failed to cover. They won those 4 contests by a substantial average of 39.5 points per game. The Alabama game was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 17 points. The Bulldogs defense has received much acclaim this season and rightfully so. But don’t sleep on the Georgia offense which scored 41 points or more in 4 of their last 5 and collected 449 yards or greater on each occasion. Bet Georgia minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Pittsburgh +3.5 (10*) Both teams will be without their top offensive player. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett is a potential 1st round draft choice who opted out for risk of injury. All Picket did this season was throw for 4319 yards and 42 touchdowns. Michigan State will be without star running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker rushed for 1646 yards and 18 touchdowns this season while averaging a lofty 6.2 yards per carry. It comes down to this for me when handicapping this game. Which difference can make the difference between winning and losing? The answer to this then becomes simple. I unequivocally trust Pitt’s defense more than that of today’s opponent. Pitt is #40 in total defense, #6 in rush defense, and #2 in sacks nationally. Conversely, Michigan State is #117 out of 130 college football FBS teams in total defense and dead last in pass yards allowed. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Iowa State vs. Clemson 5:45 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Iowa State +2.5 (10*) #19 Clemson (9-3) and enters this Cheez-It Bowl on a 5-game win streak. Yet, they’re less than a field goal favorite versus unranked Iowa State (7-5). That’s all I need to know and especially considering that Iowa State opened as a favorite in this matchup. Iowa State will be without star running back Breece Hall who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. However, they still have 4-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy who will be playing his final game in a Cyclones uniform. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Oregon State @ Utah State 7:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -7.0 (10*) Utah State crushed San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game 46-13 in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies enter this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl having won 7 of their last 8 yet find themselves as a touchdown underdog versus a 7-5 Oregon State team. This is one of those situations where I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more than what may appear to be obvious underdog betting value. As opposed to most Power 5 Conference teams playing opponents from the Group of 6 Conferences, Oregon State is delighted to be playing in a bowl game and will be plenty motivated. Especially when considering that Oregon State went a dismal 10-32 during the previous 4 seasons. Bet Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois 6:00 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Coastal Carolina -10.5 (10*) Northern Illinois is the MAC Champion that comes into this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando Florida with a 9-4 record. However, they allowed 40 points or more in each of their 4 losses and were outgained by an average of 26.1 yards per game. Conversely, Coastal Carolina averaged 40.4 points scored per game and outgained their opponents by an average of 166.3 yards per contest. They will be facing a Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 32.7 points per game this season. Since the start of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone a dominating 8-0 SU&ATS when facing an opponent that allows 31.0 or more points per game and they won by a decisive margin of 20.7 points per contest. Lastly, although Coastal Carolina didn’t reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game despite an outstanding 10-2 record, their 2 losses came by just a combined 5 points. They were that close to going undefeated. Bet Coastal Carolina minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
Iowa vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*) Give a lot of credit to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff for getting Iowa to the Big 12 Championship game despite some glaring offensive weaknesses. Case in point, the Hawkeyes averaged just 20.7 points per game in their final 7 Big 10 Conference games. Unquestionably the Hawkeyes defense has been the catalyst to a successful 10-2 regular season campaign. Nonetheless, Michigan’s defense has been superb as well. The Wolverines are #14 nationally in total defense and #8 in scoring while allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Conversely, Iowa is 123rd out of 130 Division 1 teams in total offense at only 299.3 yards per game. The defenses comparisons are a wash since both units are elite. The telling difference in us covering this spread will be Michigan’s offense which is #20 nationally in total yards. The Wolverines offense is especially difficult to defend since their yards gained between run and pass are almost identical. Bet Michigan minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*) The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Purdue v. Ohio State -20.5 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*) Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season. Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year. |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-16-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 32-24 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Texas -3.5 (10*) #25 Texas (4-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma State (5-0). Despite being the lower ranked team and having 2 losses they find themselves as a favorite versus unbeaten Oklahoma State. I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is a fraudulent #12 ranked team. All 5 of their wins have come by 14 points or fewer and their average margin of victory has come by just 6.8 points per contest. That’s especially concerning when looking at their first 2 games which were home wins over Missouri State (FCS team) by 7 and Tulsa (2-4) by 5. The Longhorns only losses this year came versus #17 Arkansas and #4 Oklahoma. The 55-48 loss to Oklahoma last week was a tough pill to swallow considering they squandered a 21-point lead in that contest. On a positive note, the Texas offense has ben red-hot over their last 3 contests while averaging 50.0 points scored and 523.0 yards gained per game. By the way, Texas has gone 22-2 SU and 16-8 ATS over the last 24 season in games immediately following Oklahoma. Since 2019, the Longhorns are 5-0 SU at home following a loss and won by 19.8 points per game. Through their first 6 games Texas has a +5 turnover margin while Oklahoma State is -2. Texas is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 39.0 points per game. Bet Texas minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*) #9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that. Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest. Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford +4.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*) After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them. After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 39-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*) Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina. The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points. |
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09-11-21 | Appalachian State +9 v. Miami-FL | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*) It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games. Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions. Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
UTSA @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: UTSA +5.0 (10*) Just a week removed for knocking off Big 10 rival Nebraska in their opening game as a 6.5-point home underdog, Illinois finds themselves as a single-digit favorite against an opponent from Conference USA. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the chalk in this spot but I’m not being lured in by the bait. The Illini were beneficiaries of Nebraska continually shooting themselves in the foot. Specifically speaking, 9 of their points came via a fumble return for a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the half, and on a safety when a Nebraska punt returner decided to field the ball on his own 1-yard line. Additionally, Illinois has a stern road test the following week at Virginia. UTSA returns 21 starters from a team that finished 7-5 a season ago which included a bowl game loss to nationally ranked UL-Lafayette. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET Game# 499-500 Play On: Ohio State +9.0 (10*) The Buckeyes will continue to play with a chip on their shoulders tonight after being heavily criticized for making the College Football Playoff despite playing only 6 games at the time. Ohio State is one of the few and maybe even the only team in the country that can match Alabama’s offensive explosiveness. The Buckeyes defense has given up its share of yards this season, but they have also forced an eye-popping 18 turnovers in just 7 games. Ohio State has racked 254 yards or more rushing in each of its last 4 games. The Buckeyes have outrushed their opponents this season by a substantial 184 yards per game. This qualifies by a high percentage college football betting angle which is shown below. Any neutral field underdog that has rushed for 225 yards or more in each of their last 3 games, and they’re outrushing their opponents on the season by 100 or more yards per contest, resulted in those underdogs going an extremely profitable 30-7 ATS (81.1%) since 1992. The average point-spread in those 37 games was 7.1, and the underdog also won 18 of those 37 games straight up. This precise betting angle came up in the previous game for Ohio State and they came away with a 49-28 blowout win over Clemson as a 7.5-point underdog. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
North Carolina vs. Texas A&M 8:00 PM ET Game# 497-468 Play On: North Carolina +7.5 (10*) Whenever I get a winning team with an explosive offense as an underdog like North Carolina is in this contest it always prompts me to do further investigation. This situation qualifies in the regard. North Carolina is 8-3 and they averaged 43.0 points scored and 556.5 yards gained per game. They have also scored 41 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games which includes a regular season finale 62-26 win at nationally ranked Miami. I like to use the boxing analogy when it comes to these high scoring underdogs. I compare them to knockout artists in boxing, you are never out of it because you have a punchers chance. Texas A&M is 8-1, winners of 7 straight, and ranked #5 in the country. However, Aggies players and coaches alike were perplexed by being snubbed by the college football playoff committee. One school of thought is they will be out to make a statement in this matchup. In my experience, it’s quite the contrary, and college teams that have been snubbed in either football or basketball more times than not come out flatter than a pancake in their following game. This will be a textbook example of such. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Clemson 8:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Ohio State +7.5 (10*) For starters, Clemson head coach Dabo Sweeney gave the Ohio State locker room plenty of motivational press clippings after voicing his displeasure on Ohio State being included in the 4-team playoff field despite playing only 6 games. The Buckeyes will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from last season college football playoff loss to Clemson 29-23. Ohio State squandered a 16-0 lead in that contest and lost despite having an edge in total yards of 516-417. Ohio State also held almost a 7-minute edge in time of possession advantage and current quarterback Justin Fields outplayed highly prized Clemson signal caller Trevor Lawrence. Ohio State is allowing 97 yards rushing per game this season. Conversely, Clemson is averaging 164 yards rushing per contest. These rushing stats leads us to an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football neutral field non-conference underdog (Ohio State) that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent (Clemson) that averages between 140 to 190 yards rushing per game, resulted in those underdogs going 22-11 (66.7%) straight up since 1992. Since this straight up betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added relevance. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for my “College Football Game of the Year”. |
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12-19-20 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +7.5 | Top | 46-33 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
Arizona State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET Game# 225-226 Play On: Oregon State +7.5 (10*) Arizona State is coming off a 70-7 shellacking over their winless in-state rival Arizona last Saturday. The Sun Devils have played just 3 games this season and last week marked its first win. Now they travel to Oregon State against a 2-4 Beavers team that in recent years has been a PAC-12 doormat. However, this is a better than advertised Beavers team whose 4 losses came by just a combined average of 6.3 points per contest. Arizona State has allowed an average of just 20 points per game this season despite surrendering 423 yards per game. The Sun Devils defense has bailed themselves out by forcing a whopping 11 turnovers in their 3 games played. However, they will be facing an opponent on Saturday which has only committed 6 turnovers in 6 games. Oregon State also averages a healthy 31.0 points and 450.3 yards per game in their 4 contests played at home. Bet on Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-12-20 | Wisconsin -2 v. Iowa | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -109 | 43 h 1 m | Show |
Wisconsin @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET Game# 385-386 Play On: Wisconsin -2.0 (10*) This opening line and the following substantial line movement really caught my eye. Wisconsin opened as a 3.0-point road underdog and at the time of this writing they have moved all the way to a 2.0-point road favorite. Of curse I checked Iowa’s injury list and COVID-19 situation to see if something within those categories prompted this large of a move but there was nothing of the sort. Iowa enters this contest on a 5- game win streak. However, their wins have come over 5 Big 10 Conference opponents that enter this week with a cumulative 10-20 record and all currently have losing records. Wisconsin has lost 2 straight and scored only a combined 13 points in those defeats. However, they were plagued by 7 turnovers committed during those 2 games. Another words, they stopped themselves more so than opposing defenses did. On a positive note, the 2-2 Badgers have been outstanding on defense while allowing a mere 12.3 points and 229.3yards per game. Iowa is solid offensively, but they are far from a juggernaut. Bet on Wisconsin for a 10* Top Play. |
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12-05-20 | BYU -10 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina @ BYU 5:30 PM ET This is a situation that I have to trust my eyes and professional intuition. I firmly believe that BYU could have at the very least competed for a title in any Power 5 Conference if afforded the oppotunity. Regarding strength of schedules neither of these teams rates highly. However, my personal eye test indicates that BYU is the more physical team on both sides of the ball and especially so on the interior line. BYU quarterback Zach Wilson is an NFL quarterback waiting to happen. Coastal Carolina relies heavily on their run game to move the ball with 65% of their offensive plays this season being rushing attempts. Conversely, BYU allows a mere 88 yards per game on the ground and just 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. This line speaks volumes to me with the #9 Cougars as a double-digit road favorite against the #14 and undefeated Coastal Carolina. Bet on BYU minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-28-20 | LSU v. Texas A&M -14.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
LSU @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET Game# 235-236 Play On: Texas A&M -14.5 (10*) Thee first college football playoff rankings came out this week and 5-1 Texas A&M is #5. The Aggies can justify their ranking with a decisive win over defending national champion LSU on Saturday night. LSU is a mediocre 3-3 and is a shell of the team they were a season ago. The Tigers are coming off a gratifying 27-24 win at Arkansas. However, they are 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win and allowed a combined 93 points in those losses to Missouri and Auburn. As a matter of fact, LSU has allowed 44 points or more and 506 yards or greater in all 3 of their losses this season. They will be facing a Texas A&M offense which has averaged 39.8 points scored and 460.0 yards gained during their current 4-gamee win streak. The Aggies only loss this season came at the hands of #1 Alabama. Texas A&M will also be out to revenge a humiliating 50-7 loss at LSU last season. The Aggies will enter this game with plenty of rest as they take the field for a first time in 3 weeks. Bet on Texas A&M minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State -3.5 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
Liberty @ NC State 7:30 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: NC State -3.5 (10*) If NC State even contemplated taking Liberty lightly all they need to do is use Virginia Tech as a lesson not to do so. Liberty went into Blacksburg earlier this season and defeated Virginia Tech 38-35 as a 17.0-point underdog. This certainly will be a bigger game for upstart Liberty while seeking their 2nd win over a Power 5 Conference school this season. However, NC State has unequivocally played the tougher schedule and combined with my previous point made should have no excuse on Saturday to come up with nothing less than a huge effort. Liberty is coming off a 58-14 blowout win over West Carolina and that improved their season record to 8-0. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a 38-22 win over Florida State which now makes them 5-3 this season. The combination of this data sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 2.0 or more that has at least 1 loss on the season, and they scored 22 points or greater during its previous game, versus an undefeated opponent that is playing after Game 8 of their season who allowed 27 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 ATS since 1990. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests was 20.3 points per game. Bet on NC State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-14-20 | Arkansas v. Florida -17 | Top | 35-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
Arkansas @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Florida -17.0 (10*) At first glance when looking at this line on Monday, my initial feeling was Florida would be in for an emotional letdown after defeating Georgia for a first time in 4 tries during its previous game. However, that win catapulted them to #6 in the country, and if they aspire to be in the SEC title game or the College Football 4-team Playoff, they have no room for error. Additionally, they are going to need some style points along the way. Arkansas has been a nice story this season under first year head coach Sam Pittman. After being an SEC laughingstock for the past few seasons, the Razorbacks are a respectable 3-3 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in those contests. It is highly improbable that Florida will overlook this game in lieu of what they have at stake and how competitive of an opponent they will be facing. Furthermore, the Razorbacks will be without head coach Sam Pittman who tested positive for COVID-19 this week. Former Missouri head coach and now Arkansas defensive coordinator will take on the temporary head coaching duties. From an emotional standpoint, that will affect the Razorbacks in some way, shape, or form. I look for Florida to make a further emphatic statement in “The Swamp” on Saturday night. Bet on Florida minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-07-20 | Baylor v. Iowa State -13.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Baylor @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET Game# 345-346 Play On: Iowa State -13.5 (10*) It is clear at this point that Baylor is nowhere near the caliber of team that they were a season ago under current Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Ruhle. Iowa State is better than their present 4-2 record indicates. Iowa State is averaging 433.3 yards of total offense per game. The Cyclones are coming off a 52-22 blowout win at Kansas in a game they outgained the Jayhawks by 302 total yards. Baylor is allowing 371.8 yards per game. The combination of this data sets up a terrific college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of between 10.5 to 21.0 points that is coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 125 yards or more, and that home favorite is facing an opponent which is allowing between 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home favorites going 25-2 ATS since 2011. The average line in those 27 contests was 15.2 and those favorites outscored the underdogs by a substantial 24.9 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State +12.5 | Top | 38-25 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: Penn State +12.5 (10*) Despite losing being upset 36-35 at Indiana last week as a 7.0-point favorite, Penn State outgained the Hoosiers 488-211. Ohio State is coming off a season opening home blowout win over Nebraska. However, the Cornhuskers were able to move the ball evidenced by its 370 yards of total offense in that contest. Any college football conference home underdog of 14.0 or less that is coming off an away favorite of 7.0 or greater straight up loss in which they allowed 22 points or greater, and they are facing an opponent coming off a home win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2009. The home underdogs also won 6 of those 11 games straight up. Bet on Penn State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-24-20 | NC State v. North Carolina -14.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
NC State @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: North Carolina -14.5 (10*) The first thing that jumped out at me was the double-digit point-spread. Especially when consider North Carolina heads into this week ranked 14th and NC State comes in at #23. It seems the sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. I know that a high percentage of bettors will take the bait considering North Carolina was upset at Florida State last week as a 14.0-point favorite, and NC State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since losing to Virginia Tech 45-24. Speaking of Virginia Tech, North Carolina beat them 56-45 just 2 weeks ago while racking up an enormous 558 yards of total offense. NC State turned the ball over 3 times in their previous game. Since 2018, the Wolfpack have gone 0-7 SU&ATS following a game in which they committed 3 or more turnovers and lost by an average of 23.1 points per contest. Bet on North Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 4:00 PM ET Game# 143-144 Bet On: Mississippi State +5.5 (10*) This is a dangerous spot for Texas A&M after they pulled of a home upset over then #3 Florida last week. As a matter of fact, the Aggies last 2 games have come against #2 Alabama and the previously mentioned contest versus Florida. Now they face a Mississippi State team which is coming off a pair of disappointing losses to Arkansas and Kentucky after beginning their season with an upset win at LSU. As the old cliché goes, “beware of the wounded animal”. I just can not envision Texas A&M coming close to the same intensity level they had in their last games which came against Top 10 ranked teams. Despite suffering 2 straight losses, the Bulldogs outgained both those opponents by 125 and 136 yards. The problem was, they committed an alarmingly high 10 turnovers in those defeats and now have 14 in their first 3 games. I just do not see the volume of mistakes continuing to occur on Saturday. Furthermore, despite the offense putting their defense in tough sports because of turnovers, the Bulldogs are allowing only 285.7 yards per game to their opponents. They have been especially strong against the run while allowing only 39 yards rushing per game. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
Miami @ Clemson 7:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Clemson -14.0 (10*) Both teams come in with unblemished 3-0 records. Nonetheless, Miami is 3-0 ATS during those contests while Clemson failed to cover as a double-digit favorite on each occasion. However, it must be noted, the defending ACC Champion Tigers were a favorite of 28.0 or greater in all those contests. Truth be told, they sleepwalked through each of those victories and obviously looked uninspired while playing vastly inferior opposition. That will not be the case with #7 Miami and their star transfer quarterback D’Eriq King coming to Death Valley. Bet on Clemson minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +7.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Oklahoma @ Iowa State 7:30 PM ET Game# 123-12 Play On: Iowa State +7.5 (10*) I know many college football bettors will not be courageous enough to fade Oklahoma following a loss. However, I am not only willing to do so but it is going to be my largest wager on Saturday. Oklahoma had a commanding 35-17 lead in the 4th quarter against Kansas State last Saturday. Nevertheless, the Wildcats scored 24 unanswered and came away with a huge 38-35 upset win as a 27.5-point road underdog. Now Oklahoma has not lost 2 consecutive regular season games since 1999. As a result, public betting has favorited Oklahoma big time thus far. Yet, this line went from Oklahoma opening as a 9.5-point favorite down its current state of -7.5. This is a chance for redemption on many fronts for Iowa State. First, they will be out to atone for a poor showing in their home opener when they were knocked off by UL-Lafayette 31-14 in a game they closed as a 13.0-point favorite. Secondly, they will be out to revenge a narrow 42-41 loss at Oklahoma last year in a game they were a 14.5-point underdog, and failed on a 2-point conversion late in that contest which would have earned them an upset over the eventual Big 12 champion. Despite Oklahoma winning 5 straight Big 12 titles and making it to the College Football Playoffs the last 3 years, Iowa State has played the Sooners extremely tough. As a matter of fact, since Matt Campbell took over the head coach duties at Iowa State in 2016, The Cyclone have gone just 1-3 against Oklahoma but all 3 losses came by 10 points or less. Bet on Iowa State plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati -12.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Army @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET Game# 435-436 Play On: Cincinnati -12.5 (10*) Army has looked terrific in 2 blowout wins over Middle Tennessee State and UL-Monroe. Their vaunted triple option rushing attack has looked in midseason form while racking up 390 yards per game on the ground and averaging 36 minutes in time of possession per game. Nonetheless, they will be stepping up in class considerably in their first road game of the season against a Cincinnati team that has gone a superb 22-5 during the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats return 8 starters on defense and 15 of its top 17 tacklers from a year ago. The Cincinnati defensive line may be the best in the AAC this season. I look for the Bearcats to open an early lead and give Army a taste of its own medicine by controlling the tempo of this game. Bet on Cincinnati minus the points for a 10* Top Play |
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09-12-20 | Arkansas State v. Kansas State -12.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Arkansas State @ Kansas State 12;00 PM ET Game# 427-428 Play On: Kansas State -12.5 (10*) Arkansas State hung tough last week at Memphis last week in a 37-24 loss in which they covered as a 17.0-point underdog. However, they allowed the quick strike Memphis offense to have 34 minutes in time of possession. They also allowed Memphis to rack up 502 yards of total offense in that contest. That is not good news since Kansas State was one of the best teams nationally in time of possession last season. Furthermore, since 2015, Arkansas State is 0-6 SU&ATS after their season opener as a non-conference away underdog. The average line in those 6 contests was 17.5 and they lost by an average of 34.8 points per game. Since 2017, Kansas Sate is 3-0 SU&ATS as a non-conference home favorite when facing an opponent from a Group of 5 Conference. The average line in those 3 contests was 25.7 and the Wildcats won by 41.3 points per game. Kansas State will be a tad bit inexperienced on offense, but they do have a good one in senior dual threat quarterback Skyler Thomson who passed for 2315 yards while also running 405 yards and 11 touchdowns. Play on Kansas State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy +1 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
BYU @ Navy 8:00 ET Game# 243-244 Play On: Navy +1.0 (10*) BYU recently had 10 of their originally scheduled 12 games cancelled to reasons pertaining to COVID-19. Their schedule has been reduced from 12 to 8 games. As a result, the coaching staff and players were just notified a few weeks ago that they would be traveling cross country to play Navy in Annapolis, Maryland. Instead of having an entire offseason to prepare for the highly efficient Navy triple option rushing attack, they had all of 3 weeks to do so. That certainly is not an easy task since it will be extremely difficult to simulate the efficiency and speed that the Navy offense operates at. Besides the short preparation time for BYU, they will also be facing a Navy team that went 11-2 last season with their only 2 defeats coming against #17 Memphis and #12 Notre Dame which both took place on the road. The Midshipmen also defeated #22 Air Force (11-2) and SMU (10-3). Navy finished at #20 in the final 2019-2020 AP Poll. Navy has gone 29-4 in their last 33 at home. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are 12-0 in their last 12 at home against non-conference opponents. Bet on Navy for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor +5 v. Georgia | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
Baylor vs. Georgia 8:45 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Baylor +5.0 (10*) When it comes to college football bowl season handicapping, sometimes it’s a matter of what team you can bank on being more motivated. Georgia need a win in the SEC Championship Game against LSU to make the college football playoffs. However, they were throttled by LSU and thus had to settle for a Sugar Bowl invite against upstart Baylor. Baylor has enjoyed a magnificent 11-2 season to this point. The Bears only 2 losses came at the hands of #4 Oklahoma (12-2). They suffered a heartbreaking 30-23 overtime loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game which cost them a trip to the college football playoffs. They also blew a 28-3 lead at home to Oklahoma in a 34-31 loss. The bottom line is this. Nobody in college football was surprised by Georgia’s success this season. However, nobody expected Baylor to be this good let alone being one play away from reaching the college football playoffs. Baylor will be the more juiced up team in this one. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Clemson vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET Game# 243-244 Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*) Ohio State has played the much tougher schedule of these pair of 13-0 teams and that will pay dividends in the outcome of this game. The Buckeyes have beaten #8 Wisconsin twice, #10 Penn State, #14 Michigan, and #21 Cincinnati. Clemson has recorded just 1 win over a team that’s currently ranked in the Top 25 and that was over #24 Virginia in the ACC Championship game. Bet on Ohio State plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-27-19 | USC +2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
USC vs. Iowa 8:00 PM ET Game# 233-234 Play On: USC +2.5 Iowa has relied heavily on their defense this season to do its heavy lifting. The Hawkeyes are allowing a mere 13.2 points per game this season. Yet, they somehow managed to lose 3 games this season. Iowa’s offensive production has left much to be desired. The Hawkeyes have averaged only 304.2 total yards of total offense per game. Iowa went 6-3 in Big 10 Conference play but only 1 of those wins came against a team that finished with a winning record. After suffering through an underachieving 5-4 start, USC finished their regular season slate by winning their last 3. Despite how goo the Iowa defense is, USC will present a stiff challenge with their multifaceted passing game. During their current 3-game win streak, USC has averaged an incredible 466 yards passing per contest. Bet on USC plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-21-19 | Washington -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
Washington vs. Boise State 7:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Washington -3.0 (10*) For starters, former Boise State and current Washington head coach Chris Peterson will be roaming the sidelines for a final time on Saturday. Peterson surprisingly resigned from his position in November due to personal issues. It’s har to imagine the Huskies not coming up with a huge effort in Peterson’s swan song. Secondly, #19 Boise State enters this Las Vegas Bowl with a terrific 12-1 record. Nonetheless, the oddsmakers have made unranked and 7-5 Washington as the favorite. Like I’ve alluded to on many occasions, I trust the oddsmakers a heck of a lot more than college football poll voters. By the way, Boise State suffered their only defeat at BYU 28-25. Conversely, Washington won easily at BYU earlier this season by a decisive score of 45-19. Bet on Washington minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-30-19 | UNLV v. Nevada -7 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
UNLV @ Nevada 3:00 PM ET Game# 389-390 Play On: Nevada -7.0 (10*) UNLV is coming off a 38-35 win over San Jose State and did so as a 7.0-point home underdog. That win improved the Rebels season record to 3-8 (.272). Conversely, Nevada is coming off a 35-28 upset win at Fresno State in a game they were a 13.0-point underdog. The Wolfpack have now gone 3-0 SAU&ATS in their last 3 and 7-4 overall. Nevada will also be out to revenge last year’s 34-29 loss at UNLV. Any college football home favorite of 7.0 to 24.0 that’s coming off a conference road SU&ATS win in which they covered by 6.5-points or more, versus an opponent (UNLV) who’s coming off a conference underdog of 6.0 or greater straight up win, and they own a win percentage of .250 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 28-1 ATS (96.5%) since 2006. Bet on Nevada minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-23-19 | Boston College v. Notre Dame -20.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
Boston College @ Notre Dame 2:30 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Notre Dame -20.5 (10*) Notre Dame is coming off blowout wins over Navy 52-20 and Duke 38-7 during its last 2 games. Those wins improved #16 Notre Dame to 8-2 this season. Boston College is coming off a 38-31 home loss to Florida State. That defeat dropped the Eagles season record to 5-5 (.500). Any college football favorite of 15.0 to 28.0 (Notre Dame) that’s coming off back to back wins by 28 points or greater on each occasion, versus an opponent (Boston College) with a win percentage of .125 or better and is coming off a straight up loss, resulted in those sizable home favorites going an outstanding 42-6 ATS (87.2%) since 1986. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-16-19 | Stanford v. Washington State -10 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
Stanford @ Washington State 4:30 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Washington State -10.0 (10*) Washington State enters this week on a 2-game losing streak. Those losses dropped their season record to 4-5 (.444). This sets up a straightforward and extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football favorite of 10.0 to 20.5 that owns a win percentage of .400 to .490, and they’re coming off losses during each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 35-5 ATS (87.5%) since 2009. Bet on Washington State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-02-19 | Georgia -5.5 v. Florida | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Florida 3:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Georgia -5.5 (10*) Florida’s defense looked terrific through their first 6 games. Nevertheless, that hasn’t been the case over their previous 2 outing in which they allowed 34.5 points and 449.0 yards per game. During those 2 contests they permitted South Carolina to rush for 217 yards and LSU amassed 218 on the ground. The Gamecocks and Tigers also combined to average a huge 6.5 yards per rushing attempt. That’s troublesome when considering Georgia has averaged 237 yards per game rushing and a massive 6.1 yards per running attempt. This is a perfect opportunity for Georgia to forge themselves right back into to the 4-team college football playoffs discussion. Despite being the favorite in this contest, they’re facing a higher ranked opponent (Florida). Nothing would elevate their status more than a convincing win which I truly believe they’re primed to do. The Georgia defense has been dominant thus far in 2019, allowing a mere 10.6 points and 266.7 yards per game. They suffered a shocking 20-17 home loss to South Carolina in a game they closed as a 20.5-point favorite. That’s been their only blemish of the season. The Bulldogs outgained South Carolina in that defeat by a decisive 468-297 yards. Unfortunately, they committed 4 turnovers in that setback while failing to create any of its own. Georgia dominated Florida in the last 2 head to head meeting by outscoring them 78-24 and outgaining the Gators 822-383. Bet on Georgia minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-19-19 | Arizona State v. Utah -13 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
Arizona State @ Utah 6:00 PM ET Game# 359-360 Play On: Utah -13.0 (10*) This double-digit point-spread caught my eye immediately. Especially when considered each team owns identical 5-1 (.833) records, and both are nationally ranked with Utah coming in as #13 and ASU #17. It’s like the sportsbooks are begging you to take the sizable underdog in this contest. Upon further examination, I’m not falling for the trap. Utah has been terrific defensively this season. They’re allowing a mere 13.2 points and 271.5 yards per game. The Sun Devils defense has also been impressive at time during this 2019 campaign. However, they’ve allowed 30 or more points in half their games and permitted their opponents to amass 404 yards or more of total offense in 4 of its last 5 games. Furthermore, Utah hasn’t allowed any of their 6 opponents to eclipse 400 yards, and the Utes have racked up 457 yards or more of offense in each of their previous 4 games. Utah is coming off a 52-7 win at Oregon State and easily covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Arizona State defeated Washington State 38-34 in their previous game and covered as a 1.0-point home underdog. This created a terrific college football betting angle displayed below. Any conference home favorite of 8.0 to 31.0 with a win percentage of .900 or less (Utah), coming of conference favorite ATS win in which they covered by 2.0 or more and scored 35 points or greater, versus an opponent (Arizona State) with a win percentage of .636 or better who’s coming off a conference straight up underdog win, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1985. The average margin of victory in those contests was 31.5 points per game. Bet on Utah minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-12-19 | Washington v. Arizona +6.5 | Top | 51-27 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
Washington @ Arizona 11:00 PM ET Game# 151-152 Play On: Arizona +6.5 (5*) Washington is coming off a listless effort last Saturday night during a 23-13 loss at Stanford as a substantial 12.5-point favorite. It marked the 2nd time this season that the Huskies were upset as a double-digit favorite with the other coming against California. After losing 45-38 in their season opener at Hawaii, Arizona has reeled off 4 straight wins, and includes last week’s 35-30 win at Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog. The Wildcats are an explosive offense team that averages 37.2 points and 539.2 yards per game. Additionally, since 10/7/2017, Arizona is 6-1 SU&ATS as a home underdog of 1.5 to 10.0. Bet on Arizona plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-05-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Northwestern @ Nebraska 4:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Nebraska -7.0 (10*) Northwestern is coming off a 24-15 loss to Wisconsin which dropped their season record to 1-3. The Wildcats only win came over UNLV who annually one of the poorest football programs in the country. Northwestern’s offense is averaging just 15.5 points and 292.7 yards per game. Furthermore, they’ve committed an alarmingly high 11 turnovers in their first 4 games of the season. Nebraska was outclassed last week against Ohio State in a 48-7 home loss while also failing to cover as a 17.0-point home underdog. Despite that low scoring output in addition to being held to a mere 231 total yards, Nebraska is still averaging 31.8 points and 438.2 yards per game. The Cornhuskers will also be playing with double revenge stemming from 2 straight losses to Northwestern by narrow margins of 34-31 and 31-28. Any conference favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming off a conference home underdog of 11.0 or greater ATS loss in which they scored 16 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Northwestern) coming off a loss by 34 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1980. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 24.8 points per game. Bet on Nebraska minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-28-19 | Minnesota -1.5 v. Purdue | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 137-138.0 Play On: Minnesota -1.5 (10*) Purdue is coming off a 34-13 home loss to TCU in which they failed to cover as a 3.0-point underdog. They also blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead at Nevada in their season opening 34-31 loss. The Boilermakers are a disappointing 1-2 thus far with their only win coming at home over Vanderbilt. The Boilermakers starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar remains questionable while attempting to recover from a concussion. Minnesota enters their Big 10 Conference opener with a 3-0 record and those wins came by 7 points or less. The Gophers are unlikely to blink in a close game. They defeated Fresno State 38-35 in their only 2019 road game to this point. Dating back to last season, Minnesota has won 5 straight games under 2nd year Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck. Any conference away team that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent coming home a home underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 21.0-points or fewer, and they have a win percentage of .400 or worse, resulted in those away teams going 50-1 straight up since 1982. Bet on Minnesota for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-14-19 | NC State -6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 27-44 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 47 m | Show |
NC State @ West Virginia 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: NC State -6.5 (10*) This 2019 Mountaineers team is terrible in comparison to the successful precedent that was set before them at West Virginia. They barely got by James Madison 20-13 in their season opener thanks to a +3 margin in turnovers, and then was blown out 38-7 last week at Missouri. That was a Missouri team that had been upset at Wyoming the week before as a 15.5-point chalk. NC State has been extremely impressive during its 2-0 start to 2019. They outscored their first 2 opponents East Carolina and West Carolina by a decisive margin of 74-6 while committing no turnovers in doing so. Any college football away favorite of 3.5 or greater that’s coming off 2 straight win in which they allowed 14 points or fewer, versus an opponent that gave up 37 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away favorites going 50-14 ATS (78.1%) since 2008. Bet on NC State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-01-19 | Washington +7.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Washington vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Washington +7.5 (10*) Washington was one of my 4 predictions to make the college football playoffs before the season began. Obviously, they fell short in that regard. However, this is an experienced Huskies team with an imposing defense which allowed just 15.5 points and 301.8 yards per game on their way to a 10-3 season and PAC-12 title. Conversely, Ohio State’s defense is a major concern and that was especially evident late in the year. The Buckeyes allowed 38.0 points and 451.3 yards per game during its last 3 contests against Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. The also gave up 49 points and 539 yards to Purdue during their lone loss of the season. Bet on Washington plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech 12:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Cincinnati -5.5 (10*) Cincinnati has averaged 238 yards rushing per game on their way to an impressive 10-2 regular season campaign. That’s not good news for a Virginia Tech defense that’s surrendering an alarming 206 yards rushing per game this season. ASA a matter of fact, since 2016, Virginia Tech is a dismal 0-7 ATS when facing an opponent that’s averaging 230 or more rushing yards per game and they were outscored by 12.6 points per contest. Cincinnati finished their regular season slate with a 56-6 blowout win over East Carolina. The Bearcats average an enormous 8.2 yards per offensive play during that victory. Cincinnati is averaging 458.2 yards of total offense per game. They’ll be facing a Virginia Tech defense which has allowed 436.7 yards per game during regular season action. The combination of all the previously mentioned statistical data sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is illustrated below. Any favorite of 3.5 to 10.0-points (Cincinnati) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they’re coming off a game in which they averaged 6.75 yards or more per offensive play, versus an opponent (Virginia Tech) which is allowing 390 to 440 yards per game, resulted in those favorites going 33-8 ATS (80.5%) since 2009. The average point-spread was -7.9 and those favorites outscored the underdogs by an average of 15.0 points per game. Bet on Cincinnati minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida +3 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
Marshall vs South Florida 8:00 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: South Florida +3.0 (10*) South Florida won their first 7 games and then when on to lose its last 5 regular season contests. Before jumping to conclusions, keep this in mind, any team entering a bowl game that lost 5 or more games in a row has gone a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS since 1980. By the way, all 4 of those contests occurred since 2011. The average margin of victory was 13.5 points per game. In the Bulls defense, the 5 losses were to Houston (8-4), Tulane (7-6), Cincinnati (10-2), Temple (8-4), and Central Florida (12-0). Those 5 teams are currently a combined 45-16 (.737) this season. This 2018 Gasparilla Bowl will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa which is South Florida’s home field. Moreover, teams playing in a bowl game on their home field have gone 21-12 straight up and 20-13 ATS since 1998. If those teams were an underdog and faced an opponent with a win percentage of .636 or better, they improved to 6-1 ATS and 5-2 straight up. Marshall enters this bowl game having finished 8-4 (.666) during regular season play. Bet on South Florida plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-01-18 | Northwestern +15 v. Ohio State | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
Northwestern vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Northwestern +15.0 (10*) Northwestern has thrived in the underdog role under current head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Since the latter part of the 2014 season, Northwestern has gone an outstanding 20-7 ATS (74%) as an underdog and that includes 18-3 ATS (85.7%) when facing an opponent that’s not undefeated. Northwestern lost their Big 10 opener to Michigan and then preceded to win its last 7 conference games. Ohio State is coming off a huge upset win against Michigan in their regular season finale. By doing so the Buckeyes have keep their college football playoff hopes alive. It would be difficult for me to imaging they will be able to match the intensity level they displayed a week ago. Ohio State may come out on top but this game will be much closer than people will anticipate. Bet on Northwestern plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-24-18 | Michigan v. Ohio State +5 | Top | 39-62 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Michigan @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Ohio State 5.0 (10*) Since 2011, Michigan is a dismal 2-12 straight up in away games against teams with a win percentage of better than .666. Conversely, since 2012, Ohio State has gone a terrific 28-1 during conference home games. Furthermore, Ohio State has won 13 of their last 14 against Michigan and is a perfect 6-0 against the Wolverines with Urban Meyer as their head coach. There’s just way too much home underdog value on the Buckeyes in this contest to pass up on. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa -9.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
Nebraska @ Iowa 12:00 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Iowa -9.5 (10*) Nebraska is coming off last Saturday’s 9-6 home win over Michigan State. That victory improved the Cornhuskers record to 4-7 and all 4 wins occurred on their home field. Iowa is coming off a 63-0 blowout win at Illinois in a game in which they covered as a 16.0-point road favorite. The combination of these teams results in their last games sets up an extremely successful college football point-spread betting angle which is illustrated below. Any conference home favorite of 34.0-points or less (Iowa) that’s coming off a conference ATS win as an away favorite of 7.0-points or more in which they held their opponent scoreless, and they’re facing a team (Nebraska) that wasn’t shutout in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 32-2 ATS (94.1%) since 1992. Bet on Iowa minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-17-18 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida -7 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Central Florida 8:00 PM ET Game# 353-354 Play On: Central Florida -7.0 (10*) Central Florida is coming off last Saturday’s 35-24 win over Navy. That victory improved their season record to a perfect 9-0. Cincinnati is coming off last week’s 35-23 win over South Florida. The Bearcats head into this huge American Athletic Conference showdown with an impressive 9-1 record. Any home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0-points (UCF) with an undefeated record that’s playing after Game 9 of the season, and they’re coming off a win by 38 points or less while scoring 21 points or more, versus an opponent with at least 1 loss on the season, and they’re coming off a win in which they scored 31 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 ATS since 1988. The average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive margin of 19.5 points per game. Bet on Central Florida minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
Miami Fla. @ Georgia Tech 7:00 PM ET Game# 139-140 Play On: Georgia Tech -3.0 (10*) Miami has gone 0-3 SU&ATS during their last 3 games and were a favorite in each of those contests. Their offense has been anemic throughout this current losing streak and scored 14 points or fewer on each occasion. Furthermore, the Hurricanes last win came on 10/6 in a 28-27 home win over a not very good Florida State team, and they had to overcome a 27-7 second half deficit in that contest. Miami comes into this game with a disappointing 5-4 (.555) record after being ranked in the Top 20 throughout the first half of this season. Georgia Tech is coming off SU&ATS wins in their previous 2 games. Even more impressive is both those wins came on the road at Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Additionally, they’ve gone 4-1 SU&ATS during their last 5 games and forced 13 turnovers throughout that time. The Yellowjackets enter this week with a 5-4 (.555) record. Any conference home favorite of 4.5-points or less with a win percentage of .750 or worse, coming off conference away SU&ATS wins in their previous 2 games and last they covered their previous contest by 2.0-points or more, and they’re playing after Game 7 of their season, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 20-1 ATS (95.2%) since 1981. Bet on Georgia Tech minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-03-18 | Michigan State v. Maryland +3 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Michigan State @ Maryland 12:00 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Maryland +3.0 (10*) Michigan State is coming off a tough 3-game stretch in which they went 2-1 against Penn State, Michigan, and Purdue. Furthermore, following Saturday’s game at Maryland they’ll be hosting Ohio State and will be presented with an opportunity to squelch the Buckeyes national championship aspirations. With that in mind, this shapes up for a potential flat sport for a Spartans team which has already endured 3 losses this season. Maryland has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season. Granted the competition in those wins was less than stellar. However, they defeated Minnesota, Rutgers, and Illinois by an average of 28.7 points per game. The Terrapins also upset #15 Texas earlier this season and did so as a 12.0-point underdog. Maryland enters this week with a solid 5-3 record. The Terrapins racked up 712 yards of total offense in last Saturday 63-33 home win over Illinois. Maryland is averaging 377.6 yards of total offense per game and they’ll be facing a Michigan State defense which is yielding 353.2 yards per contest throughout its first 8 games. Which leads us to a powerful college football betting angle illustrated below which heavily favors the home underdog in this matchup. Any college football home underdog playing after Game 6 of their season that averages 330 to 390 yards of total offense per game, and they amassed 475 yards or more of total offense in their previous game, versus an opponent (Michigan State) that surrenders 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home underdogs going 39-4 (90.7%) straight up since 1992. Bet on Maryland plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-27-18 | Navy v. Notre Dame -23.5 | Top | 22-44 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
Navy vs. Notre Dame 8:00 PM ET Game# 207-208 Play On: Notre Dame -23.5 (10*) The only team that will prevent Notre Dame from winning this game by 4 touchdowns or more is Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a bye week and look for them to put forth an inspired effort after barely surviving against Pittsburgh in their previous game. As a matter of fact, that narrow 20-14 win as a 20.0-point home favorite may have been the worst thing for Navy. I look for Notre Dame to be a focused and hungry team in this nationally televised primetime matchup. This has been a down year for Navy this far and look for a continuation of just that on Saturday night. The Midshipmen won’t be able to match the physicality of Notre Dame’s offensive and defensive line. They’ll be worn out by the time 2nd half action rolls around. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Oregon @ Washington State 7:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: Washington State -2.5 (10*) Washington State is coming off SU&ATS wins in each of their previous 2 games. They barely coved in their previous game as an 18.5-point favorite during a 56-37 victory at Oregon State. That win improved the Cougars season record to 5-1 (.833). Oregon is coming off last Saturday’s thrilling 30-27 overtime win over then #7 Washington and they did so as a 3.5-point home underdog. The Ducks also enter this contest with a 5-1 (.833) record. I entered previously mentioned data into my college football handicapping software and it spit out a never lost ATS betting angle which is detailed below. Any college football home favorite of 5.5-points or fewer that owns a win percentage of .833 or less after Game 5 of their season, and is coming off SU&ATS win in each of their previous 2 contests, and they covered their previous game by 32.0 or less while scoring 24 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a straight win and who possesses a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 19-0 ATS since 1980. The average victory margin in those 19 contests was 20.1 points per game. Bet on Washington State as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-13-18 | Georgia -7.5 v. LSU | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
Georgia @ LSU 3:30 PM ET Game# 197-198 Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*) Georgia is undefeated at 6-0 thus far and have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 257-78. The Bulldogs have allowed 17 points or fewer in 5 of those 6 contests while they scored 38 points or more on all 6 occasions. Georgia doesn’t beat themselves and that’s evidenced by them committing just a combined 3 turnovers in 6 games. Since 10/18/2014, Georgia has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as a conference away favorite of 3.0 to 16.5-points when facing an opponent coming off a straight up loss. That’s applicable to Saturday’s game at LSU and the Bulldogs won those 6 contests by an average of 21.2 points per game. LSU has gone 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a conference underdog of 9.5-points or less after scoring 17 points or fewer in its previous contest. The Tigers lost those 4 contests by an average of 15.5 points per game. Georgia is coming off home wins over Tennessee 38-12 and Vanderbilt 41-13 in their last 2 games they’ve played. Conversely, LSU is coming off a 27-19 SUATS loss at Florida and did so as a 1.0-point favorite. The combination of those 3 results leads us to a a unbeaten college football betting angle which is shown below. Any away favorite (Georgia) playing after Game 3 of the season who’s coming off home wins by 14 points or more in each of their previous 2 games played, and they allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (LSU) coming off a conference SU&ATS loss in which it failed to cover by 8.0 points or more while they also scored 23 points or less, resulted in those away favorites going 15-0 ATS since 2010. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests was a sizable 29.9 points per game. Bet on Georgia minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-06-18 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State -9 | Top | 48-42 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 21 m | Show |
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Oklahoma State -9.0 (10*) Iowa State is coming off a 17-14 loss at TCU last Saturday in a game they were held to 198 yards of total offense. Since 1996, Oklahoma State is 32-11 ATS (74.4%). Since 1996 as a home favorite when facing an opponent coming off a loss in their previous game. If that opponent covered that previous game as an underdog the Cowboys improve to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) in that identical situation. Oklahoma State is an explosive offensive team that’s averaging 44.4 points and 545.4 yards per contest. Conversely, Iowa State averages a paltry 17.5 points scored and 299.5 of total offense per game. Oklahoma State is coming off a 48-28 win at Kansas and they covered as a 17.0-point favorite while doing so. The win improved the Cowboys season record to 4-1 (.800). The loss to TCU last week dropped Iowa State to 1-3 (.50) this year. These records and last week’s Oklahoma State SU&ATS winning result creates an extremely profitable college football betting angle that sides with the favorite in this matchup. Any home favorite of 9.0-points or more that’s coming off a favorite of 15.5-points or greater ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .600 to .800, versus an opponent (Iowa State) with a win percentage of .250 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 43-9 (82.7%) ATS since 1992. Bet on Oklahoma State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame -5.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show |
Stanford @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 207-208 Play On: Notre Dame -5.5 (10*) Stanford was extremely fortunate to come away with a 38-31 overtime win at Oregon last week. Granted, kudos to them for overcoming a 4th quarter 24-7 deficit. However, that comeback was more of a byproduct of a bevvy of Oregon turnovers and a botched coaching decision by in the last minute that resulted in a fumble, when essentially all they needed to do was take a knee. That brain cramp by Oregon’s coaching staff allowed Stanford to mount a drive which led to a last second field goal that sent the contest into overtime. The win improved #7 Stanford to 4-0. Notre Dame head coach made a bold move last week by replacing former starting quarterback Brandon Winbush with Ian Book. The move paid off handsomely as Book passed for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns in addition to running for an additional 3 touchdowns during a 56-27 rout at Wake Forest. The Irish easily covered that contest as a 6.0-point favorite. That victory improved #8 Notre Dame to 4-0. Any home favorite of 8.0-points (Notre Dame) or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 32.0-points or less and scored 52 points or more, versus an opponent with at least 1 win, resulted in those home favorites going 30-6 ATS (83.3%) since 1997. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-22-18 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt +2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 26 m | Show |
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 4:00 PM ET Game# 387-388 Play On: Vanderbilt +2.5 (10*) South Carolina unexpectedly had last week off after Hurricane Florence swept through the Carolinas and resulted in their home game versus Marshall being cancelled. The last time the Gamecocks took the field 2 weeks ago they were hammered 41-17 at home against Georgia and fell far short of covering as an 8.5-point underdog. There’s no embarrassment in losing to Georgia but the manner of which it occurred was alarming for South Carolina fans. Vanderbilt began the 2018 season with home wins over Middle Tennessee State 35-7 and Nevada 41-10. Last Saturday they put up a valiant effort before better than 80,000 fans at Notre Dame before losing 22-17. Nevertheless, the Commodores covered with ease as a 14.0-point underdog. They’re now a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season. Vanderbilt’s defense has been outstanding thus far while surrendering a mere 13 points and 308 yards per game. The Commodores will be out to end a 9-game losing streak against South Carolina. However, their previous 3 losses to the Gamecocks all came by 9 points or fewer. This is potentially the best team Derek Mason has possessed since taking on the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. Bet on Vanderbilt for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +13 | Top | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State @ TCU Game# 203-204 Play On: TCU +13.0 (10*) You can’t be much more dominating than #4 Ohio State showed during fits first 2 games of the season. The Buckeyes recorded home blowout wins over Oregon State 77-31 and Rutgers 52-3. Since 2005, TCU has gone an outstanding 28-2 straight up in non-conference home games. The Horned Frogs opened their 2018 slate with a 55-7 home rout of Southern University. Then just 5 days later they hammered SMU 42-12 while covering as a substantial 23.5-point road favorite. Any college football home team (TCU) that’s coming off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ohio State) who scored 42 points or more during each of its last 2 games, resulted in those home teams going 40-9 (.816) straight up since 1980. As a matter of fact, since 2010, the home teams in that precise situation are an even better 22-1 (.957) straight up. The straight up records pertaining to this college football betting angle take on added significance when accounting for the home team (TCU) being a double-digit underdog. Bet on TCU plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-08-18 | Mississippi State v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Kansas State 12:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Kansas State +9.0 (5*) Kansas State narrowly escaped last Saturday with a 27-24 home win against South Dakota, and they’re now 15-7 over their previous 22 games played. The Wildcats are now an impressive 26-2 straight up during their previous 28 non-conference home games. I look for Kansas State to bounce back from last week’s lackluster performance when they host #18 Mississippi State on Saturday. Speaking of Mississippi State, they christened their 2018 season with a resounding 63-6 rout of Stephen F. Austin. Any home underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points (Kansas State) that’s coming off a home win by 3 points or less in which they allowed 17 points or more, and they’re playing in game 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 1993. The underdogs also went 15-5 straight up in those contests. Bet on Kansas State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-01-18 | Washington +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 23 m | Show |
Washington vs. Auburn 3:30 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Washington +2.5 (10*) This is one of those rare betting situations where I dispose of my technical handicapping hat and rely solely on my professional intuition. I predicted in mid-July for Washington to be one of my 2 sleeper teams to win the national championship at odds of +1600. If that indeed is going to transpire, or even have a chance of doing so, losing their season opener isn’t the path for my prediction to be realized. Additionally, a win against a quality opponent like Auburn during a game played in the hear of SEC country (Atlanta) would be a gigantic resume builder. If the football adage of defense wins championships hold true, then Washington has a solid foundation to do so. The Huskies return 9 starters from a defense that allowed 16 points or less in 9 of 13 games a season ago. Nevertheless, their key to a potential national championship run will mainly rest on the shoulders of 4th year starting quarterbackJake Browning. When Washington won the PAC-12 championship and reached the College Football Playoffs 2 seasons ago, Browning was nothing short of spectacular. During that 2016 campaign, Browning threw for 3430 yards while tossing 43 touchdown passes and was intercepted only 9 times in 391 attempts. Besides his career high 68.5% completion rate in 2017, Browning’s overall numbers dipped substantially last year. I expect the seasoned signal caller to bounce back with an outstanding 2018 season. Bet on Washington for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Alabama vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET Game# 155-156 Play On: Georgia +5.0 (10*) In my mind, this is an even matchup across the board with a lone exception, Georgia’s passing game is more consistent than Alabama’s aerial attack. This is also a Georgia team that averages 267 yards rushing per game, and has run for 238 yards or more in each of their previous 4 games. As a matter of fact, they torched Oklahoma for 317 yards son the ground in their thrilling double overtime win in the New Year’s Day national semifinal. Any neutral field underdog (Georgia) that averages 225 yards or more rushing per game, and has rushed for 225 yards or more in each of their previous 4 games, resulted in those underdogs going 23-3 ATS (88.5%) since 1992. Bet on Georgia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -3 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
Alabama vs. Clemson 8:45 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Alabama -3.0 (10*) This line tells me everything. We have the #4 seed Alabama as a favorite against top seeded Clemson in a playoff semifinal game. The Crimson Tide will also be out to revenge last year’s national title game last second loss to Clemson. Alabama is just as good as they were a season ago. Despite what the so-called experts on television are professing, I don’t believe that to be the case for Clemson. Bet on Alabama minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
Iowa State vs. Memphis 12:30 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Memphis -4.0 (10*) Memphis will be playing on its own home field and that’s significant. Since 2014, Memphis is 21-4 at home and that includes 10-0 when facing non-conference opponents. The Tigers are also 7-0 at home this season which included wins over bowl teams in Navy, SMU, and UCLA. Memphis has an outstanding season record of 11-2 with their only 2 defeats coming against undefeated and 10th ranked Central Florida. Any team playing at home in a bowl game with a win percentage of .666 or better, and they’re a favorite of 6.5-points or less, resulted in those teams going 5-0 ATS since 1980. There was a decisive average margin of victory of 18.4 points per game. Bet on Memphis minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State -7.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
USC vs. Ohio State 8:30 PM ET Game# 255-256 Play On: Ohio State -8.0 (10*) Both these teams are offensively explosive. It comes down to who will be better defensively, and my money unequivocally goes to Ohio State in that regard. USC has surrendered 26.0 points and 404.8 yards per game this season. Conversely, the Buckeyes defense is allowing just 19.9 points and 292.3 yards per game. Another key factor will be Ohio State’s potent rushing attack versus the porous run defense of USC. The Buckeyes are averaging 250 yards rushing per game and average a lofty 5.9 yards per carry. USC is allowing 158 yards rushing per contest. This isn’t a good matchup for USC, and I see a similar result to when they faced Notre Dame earlier this season. The Trojans were blown out in that contest 49-14, and they allowed Notre Dame to rush for 377 yards and average 8.0 yards per carry. Bet on USC as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech +3 v. South Florida | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -115 | 91 h 20 m | Show |
Texas Tech vs. South Florida 12:00 PM ET Game# 221-222 Play On: Texas Tech +3.0 (10*) South Florida enters this Birmingham Bowl with a terrific 9-2 (.818). Nonetheless, upon careful examination the Bulls played an extremely soft schedule. Their 8 victories over FBS opponents this season came against teams that currently have a combined 27-69 (.281) record. The Bulls other win came against a FCS team in Stony Brook, and that contest was tied in the 4th quarter before South Florida scored 2 unanswered touchdowns. Meanwhile, yes Texas Tech is only 6-6 (.500) this season, 10-12 over their last 22 games, but they’re better than those records indicate. The Red Raiders faced 3 FBS non-conference opponents in Arizona State, Houston, and Oklahoma State who all posted winning regular season records. Texas Tech managed to win 2 of those 3 contests. They also finished regular season with a 27-22 upset win at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog, and that qualified them for a bowl game. Subsequently, that win may have very well saved the job of head coach Cliff Kingsbury. The Red Raiders have much to be thankful for this bowl season, and will be plenty motivated against nationally ranked opponent. Any college football bowl underdog of 7.5-points or less that’s won 13 or less of their previous 22 games, possessing a win percentage of .500 or less, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .666 or better, resulted in those bowl underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2013. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 contests outright, and their only straight up loss came by a narrow 2-point margin. Bet on Texas Tech plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-02-17 | TCU +7.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
TCU vs. Oklahoma 12:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: TCU +7.5 (10*) TCU has won each of their previous 2 games, and the most recent of which was a 45-22 victory over Baylor. Oklahoma is coming off a 59-31 win over West Virginia which improved their season record to 11-1 (.917). The Sooners are 21-1 during its last 22 games. Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0-points (TCU), coming off 2 straight wins, and they scored 42 points or more during their previous game, versus an opponent (Oklahoma) that’s coming off a win by 17 points or more, owns a win percentage of .857 or better, and has won 11 or more of its last 22 games, resulted in those underdogs going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 2013. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 21 games straight up. Bet on TCU plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager |
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