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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-11-18 | Reds v. Phillies -119 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Phillies on Wednesday with Pivetta over Castillo. Cincinnati lost again last night to drop its record to 2-8 overall and 1-5 on the road. The Reds never seem to get any better no matter how much rebuilding they do and they could be in more trouble tonight with Luis Castillo on the mound. The right-hander has given up 10 runs on 12 hits in 10 innings and the Reds have lost his two starts by a combined score of 27-10. Castillo looked promising last year when he posted a 3.12 ERA and .202 opponent batting average, but he's been horrible so far this season. The opposite is true of Nick Pivetta, who struggled at times in 2017, but this year he's allowed three runs in 9 2/3 innings and comes off five shutout innings versus Miami on Thursday. The Reds will be seeing Pivetta for the first time. Philadelphia is 4-1 at home after Tuesday's 6-1 win and the Phillies have won Pivetta's last five home starts dating to last season. Cincy has lost 52 of its last 75 road games and 18 of its last 22 overall. I'm backing the Phillies on Wednesday. Please note: Wednesday is my final day at this site. I have accepted an offer and unfortunately, in order to take it, I have to leave all other sites. It has been an absolute pleasure working with the SportsCapping crew and to those who have followed me at this site. I truly appreciate it. Thanks and my best to all. Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-09-18 | Reds v. Phillies -126 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing the Phillies on Monday with Lively over Reed. Cincinnati went back to its losing ways with a 5-0 defeat at Pittsburgh on Sunday and left-hander Cody Reed goes tonight and he's 1-8 with a 6.75 ERA in his career. Last year Reed allowed 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings while walking 19 batters and Cincy has lost his last 11 starts. Ben Lively is making his second start for the Phillies after allowing two runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Mets. Lively took the loss although he pitched well and walked only one batter and struck out five and he'll facing the Reds for the first time. Cincinnati is 23-50 its last 73 road games dating to last season and the Phillies have won 10 of their last 11 home games against left-handed starters and 12 of their last 14 versus southpaws overall. I'm backing the Phillies on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-07-18 | A's v. Angels -120 | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Angels on Saturday. The whole Angels team is being inspired by Ohtanimania as they rallied from a 6-0 deficit to beat the Athletics 13-9 on Friday night as Shohei Ohtani became the first rookie in team history to homer in each of his first three home games and the Halos are now 1-109 when trailing the A's by 6 or more runs (1-0 with Ohtani on the roster). Ohtani is batting .438 with three home runs and six RBIs as a designated hitter. Los Angeles improved to 6-2 on the season and the Angels have beaten Oakland nine of the last 11 meetings overall and 14 of the last 17 in Anaheim. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs was 5-6 with a 4.27 ERA in 2017. We had him last week and the A's won the game, but we'll go against him in this one. JC Ramirez had a rough start against Cleveland, but he pitched well against the Athletics last season allowing just a run on six hits in 10 2/3 innings with a .162 opponent batting average. The Angels have won Ramirez's last five starts versus AL West teams. I'm backing the Angels on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-07-18 | Reds v. Pirates -126 | 7-4 | Loss | -126 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Pirates on Saturday with Kuhl over Romano. Cincinnati has more postponements than wins this season and the Reds come off a 14-3 humiliation at Pittsburgh on Friday night to lower their record to 1-5. Pittsburgh has been the early-season surprise in the National League as it leads the Central Division with a 6-1 record and sends Chad Kuhl to the mound tonight. The right-hander got the win in his first start although he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings, but the good news is that he didn't allow a walk and struck out four. Kuhl gave up four runs in 11 2/3 innings against the Reds last year and his ERA after the All-Star break was 3.63 compared to 4.56 the first half of the season. Sal Romano allowed three runs on four hits in six innings and got the loss against the Nationals on Sunday. The Reds have lost 15 of their last 18 dating to last season and they are 22-49 their last 71 road games. Pittsburgh has won six of Kuhl's last seven home starts and apparently the Pirates are a great cold-weather team. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-06-18 | Cubs -133 v. Brewers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -133 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Friday with Hendricks over Woodruff. The Cubs decided to start hitting last night after being shut out two games in a row and they have Kyle Hendricks on the mound tonight and he comes off a fine performance against Miami allowing one run on four hits in six innings. Unfortunately, that was when the Cubs weren't hitting and they lost 2-1. Hendricks had a good second half last season with a 2.19 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break and in 18 innings at Miller Park he gave up six runs in 17 innings. Brandon Woodruff will make his first start of the season for the Brewers and he's already had a rough time out of the pen as he was hit by line drives by consecutive batters and he has allowed two runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings of relief. Chicago has won 26 of its last 32 road games versus right-handed starters and six of its last seven when Hendricks had six days rest. The Brewers are 0-5 in Woodruff's last five home starts. I'm backing the Cubs on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-05-18 | Cubs v. Brewers +116 | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday. Chicago's bats have gone silent as the Cubs have been shut out their last two games and have broken the National League for most strikeouts in the first five games of a season. Ian Happ opened the season with a home run, but is 1-for-15 since and Anthony Rizzo is batting .130 and struck out with the bases loaded in Monday's 1-0 loss to the Reds. Jon Lester gave up four runs (three earned) on seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings at Miami on Thursday. Brent Suter got the win as the Brewers beat San Diego 7-3 as he allowed three runs in five innings and walked only one. Suter made four appearances against the Cubs in 2017 and was 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA. The Cubs have lost 11 of their last 12 road games versus left-handed starters dating to last season and 10 of their last 12 against southpaws overall. Milwaukee has won Suter's last seven starts. I'm backing the Brewers on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-04-18 | Cardinals -120 v. Brewers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
I'm backing the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday with Carlos Martinez. Jhoulys Chacin's only hope of remaining in the major leagues appeared to be the fact that his home games were at Petco Park where he excelled as opposed to getting shelled on the road. However, for some reason, the Brewers signed him to a two-year contract even though they play in a hitter's park. Ironically, his first start this year was as a visitor at Petco and he still couldn't deliver as he was tagged for four runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings. Chacin faced the Cardinals once last season and gave up four earned runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings. Carlos Martinez had a rough start against the Mets, but St. Louis is 42-19 its last 61 games at Milwaukee and 11-5 in Martinez's last 16 starts after a loss in its previous game. We also note that while it looks like Martinez struggled on the surface, the fact is, I watched the game and he was "just missing" his spots. Look for St. Louis to bounce back after it blew last night's game in the bottom of the ninth. I'm backing the Cardinals on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-03-18 | Indians +134 v. Angels | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm backing the underdog Indians on Tuesday night. Cleveland has beaten the Angels 11 times in a row following last night's 6-0 victory and they get Garrett Richards on Tuesday and he allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings at Oakland on Thursday. The oft-injured Richards pitched in only six games last year and allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 18 hits in 27 2/3 innings. Albert Pujols was 0-for-4 on Monday and is batting .174 and Justin Upton is hitting .211 for the Angels. The Indians are 38-18 their last 56 road games and they won five of Josh Tomlin's last six starts last season. The Angels are 0-5 in Richards' last five starts and 1-5 his last six home starts. Also, the Angels are 5-17 their last 22 versus AL Central teams. We'll back the Indians, our Shocker on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-02-18 | Rangers v. A's -136 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Oakland A's on Monday night with Triggs over Colon. Bartolo Colon was one of the top go-against pitchers in the majors last season (we went against him often) and now the soon-to-be 45-year old is at it again, this time with the Rangers, who obviously are in a desperate situation with their starting pitching. Colon was 7-14 with a 6.48 ERA and .318 opponent batting average in 2017 while playing for the Twins and Braves. Andrew Triggs had a good April last year with a 4-1 record and 1.84 ERA, but eventually had to undergo season-ending hip surgery in July. Texas hitters are 3-for-27 against Triggs for a .111 batting average and the Rangers have lost eight of their last 10 games versus right-handed starters and 10 of their last 13 against AL West opponents going back to last year. The Athletics have won 13 of their last 17 versus right-handed starters and they have beaten Texas eight times in a row at home. I'm backing the A's with Triggs over Colon on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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04-01-18 | Yankees -110 v. Blue Jays | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm backing the NY Yankees on Sunday with Gray over Stroman. Marcus Stroman did not make his first appearance in spring training until last Saturday due to shoulder inflammation and today he faces the Yankees, who had a field day with him in 2017. Stroman allowed 14 runs on 27 hits in 23 2/3 innings against New York, which hit .297 against him. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray faced the Blue Jays three times and gave up only three earned runs in 18 innings and they batted only .197 against him. Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak are a combined 12-for-73 (.164) versus Gray in their careers. Yangervis Solarte hit the go-ahead homer in the eighth inning on Saturday in Toronto's 5-3 win, but look for the Yanks to bounce back with their third win in four games. I'm backing the Yankees on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -145 | 5-1 | Loss | -145 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm backing the LA Dodgers in Wednesday's game 7 clash. Yu Darvish had been pitching tremendously before his game 3 debacle on Friday. Before that outing in Houston, Darvish had allowed just 2 runs with 14 Ks and just 1 BB in 11 1/3 postseason innings. Darvish went into the playoffs with a 1.15 WHIP in nine starts since coming over from Texas. He was excellent in two starts against Houston during the regular season. Houston counters with Lance McCullers who has been terrible on the road this season. But this one really comes down to the bullpens, and despite a hiccup in the series, the Dodger pen is the better of the two and I'd rather have Clayton Kershaw in relief at Chavez Ravine than Dallas Keuchel. Starting pitching in this one leans to Los Angeles, while both offenses can strike big at anytime. But the pen is the difference, including the starting arms that'll be available out of the pen. For what it's worth, teams returning home down 3-2 and then forcing a game 7, have won 8 of the last 9 times in the World Series. Houston is just 2-8 in McCullers' last 10 starts, including 1-5 in his last six on the road. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are on a 12-3 run against AL righties. I'm backing the LA Dodgers to win game 7 on Wednesday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers +124 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm backing the LA Dodgers on Friday night with Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers going toe to toe on the mound. McCullers has pitched well thus far in the postseason but faces a different animal when he takes on the Dodger lineup. We expect LA to build on their 6 run night in game 2. McCullers is pitching on five days rest and the Astros are 0-4 the last four times he's done so. They're also 1-8 in the righthander's last nine starts, overall. The Dodgers will counter with Yu Darvish who has allowed just 2 runs with 14 Ks and 1 BB in 11 1/3 innings this postseason. Darvish went into the playoffs with a 1.15 WHIP in nine starts since coming over from Texas. He was excellent in two starts against Houston this season and Darvish owns a 0.86 ERA & 0.62 WHIP in three starts at this venue. The Dodgers are 4-0 off their last four losses and 10-2 against teams with a wining record. Los Angeles finished 13 games over .500 on the road this season and Houston, for all their success, won just 8 of their last 25 home games against teams with a winning road record. I believe Dodger manager Dave Roberts learned from his quick-hook mistake in game 2, and expect him to make the right moves (or non-moves) tonight. I'm backing the LA Dodgers in game 3 on Friday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing the Over between the Astros & Dodgers on Tuesday with Dallas Keuchel taking on Clayton Kershaw. Thanks to public perception, this total is being based on reputation more than reality. Dallas Keuchel is not as strong on the road as he has been at home. The southpaw has a 4.09 ERA in his last 53 on the road, allowing 154 earned runs in 338 2/3 innings. The total is on a 32-16 Over run when he starts road night games, with a combined average of 9.1 runs per contest. In fact, Houston opponents have averaged 4.8 rpg in those outings. Clayton Kershaw hasn't been the same over his last eight starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 11 home runs in 45 IP. That's a 4.00 ERA with a 2.2 HRs per 9 IP ratio, while averaging less than 6 IP per start. Houston enters on a 5-0 Over run on the road against lefties and they're on a 7-1 Over run against NL teams that average at least 4.5 rpg. Finally, the Dodgers are on a 5-1-1 Over run at home. The humidity is expected to be low when this one starts, which means the ball flies farther. We also get a healthy Dodger lineup for this one. I'm playing the Over in game 1 on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -113 | 6-1 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday with Hendricks over Darvish. This marks the third start of this postseason for Kyle Hendricks and the third time we'll have backed him, winning the first two. His first start went as planned and we also cashed his second start, while he didn't exactly shine. Hendricks gave up 2 home runs, but we believe it was an anomaly and he did finish with 7 strikeouts to just 1 walk. Hendricks owns a 2.60 ERA in nine postseason starts in his career. He's been outstanding in 13 post all-star starts in 2017 and finished the regular season with the lowest starting ERA in the NL from July 24 through September. Offensively, facing a right-hander at home (Yu Darvish) will be "just what the doctor ordered" for Cub bats. They're 44-18 in their last 62 against righties, overall, and 16-5 in their last 21 at home against them. We're backing the Cubs, our Tuesday NLCS Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-13-17 | Yankees v. Astros -157 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Friday with Dallas Keuchel over Masahiro Tanaka. Let's call it like it is, the Yankees advanced because Corey Kluber couldn't repeat the type of performances he had during the regular season. We don't expect the same from Houston's Dallas Keuchel. The Astros' southpaw had a terrific season, a very strong September, then slammed the door on Boston on October 6. Keuchel has been the Yankees' worst nightmare. He's been virtually untouchable in his last six starts against them, allowing just 7 earned runs and 36 base runners with 45 strikeouts in 44 2/3 IP. Tanaka was outstanding in his ALDS start against the Tribe, but he didn't pitch well in September and Houston has tagged the righthander. Tanaka has a 10.40 ERA & 1.79 WHIP in his last four starts against the Astros, while allowing a whopping 9 home runs in 17 1/3 IP. Houston enters on a 13-3 run at home and a 16-6 run when Keuchel starts at home against teams with a winning record. Houston has taken five of six from the Yankees with Keuchel on the mound and have beaten Tanaka four straight times. I'm backing the Houston Astros in Friday's game-1 matchup. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-12-17 | Cubs -109 v. Nationals | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Thursday with Hendricks over Gonzalez. We had Kyle Hendricks on Friday and cashed the ticket. As I stated then, Hendricks had the lowest ERA in the NL from July 24 through the end of the regular season. He was fantastic in Friday's postseason start. Washington finished the final 30 days of the regular season ranked near the bottom of MLB in several important offensive categories, including team batting average, OBP, OPS, and runs scored. There have now been 36 innings played in the playoffs between these two teams and the Nats have been held scoreless in 31 of those innings. In fact, Washington scored 5 runs in one inning in the first game they won and benefited from a grand slam in yesterday's game. The Nats have scored a grand total of 3 runs in their other 34 innings. Add in Bryce Harper's current 5 of 33 stretch and I believe the Nats are in for a rough outing against Hendricks. Gio Gonzalez did not pitch well down the stretch in the regular season and he allowed 3 earned runs and 2 home runs in 5 innings in his first postseason start. The Cubs are on a 30-11 run off a loss and they have won 17 of their last 23 games, overall. They've won four of their last five against Gonzalez. I'm backing the Chicago Cubs, our Thursday Slammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-07-17 | Cubs +110 v. Nationals | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs with Lester over Gio Gonzalez. We had the Cubs yesterday and rode Hendricks to a 3-0 win. We wrote about Washington's slumping offense over the final month of the season and it's worth mentioning again because Jon Lester pitched well in four of his last five starts, including his final two. Lester owned the Nats in two starts against them this season, including one at this venue. Washington counters with Gio Gonzalez and once again we have a starting pitcher with strong season-long numbers, who struggled down the stretch. Gonzalez got smacked for 16 earned runs and 32 base runners over his final 21 1/3 IP. That's a hefty 6.76 ERA & 1.50 WHIP. The Cubs are on a 9-2 run on the road against teams with a winning home record and they have won four straight against the Nationals with Gonzalez on the starting bump. I'm backing the Cubs on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-06-17 | Cubs +155 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 155 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm backing the underdog Chicago Cubs in game one against Washington. The Cubs will send playoff battle tested Kyle Hendricks to the mound. Hendricks owns the NL's lowest ERA since July 24 and he was outstanding in his previous seven postseason starts. Hendricks will face a Nationals' offense that fell off over the final month of the season, ranked 26th, 25th, 26th, and 24th, in team batting average, OBP, OPS, and runs scored, respectively. Part of the reason was the time missed by Bryce Harper, but it's taking the Nats' star a little time to get back on track after the injury. Harper had just 3 hits in 18 at-bats in five games since his return. Tough to find fault with Stephen Strasburg, but we feel he won't have the backing on offense that Hendricks will have. The Cubs have been on fire since the break and enter on a 23-5 winning run against right-handed starters. They also won 15 of their last 19 games to close the regular season. We feel the price is too high and we'll grab it. We're backing the underdog Cubs, our Friday Diamond Slammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-05-17 | Yankees v. Indians -128 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Thursday with Bauer over Gray. Trevor Bauer was struggling along in April through July. But since then he's been throwing extremely well, posting a 2.57 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, with 79 strikeouts in 70 innings, spanning 12 appearances, including 11 starts. The Indians have won six of his last eight home starts and Bauer has had no trouble at all in two starts against the Yankees, posting a 1.38 ERA. We also know that the reinforced pen (starters mixed-in) will shorten this game if needed. Don't be shocked to see Danny Salazar and/or Mike Clevinger getting a chunk of relief in this game if needed. Sonny Gray was decent as a member of the NY Yankees, but pitched better with Oakland and he got destroyed at Progressive Field in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 2/3 IP. That came after getting shelled for 7 earned runs and 10 base runners in just 3 1/3 IP in his lone start at this venue in 2016. Two nights ago, we won with the Over between the Twins & Yankees and wrote about New York's offensive numbers over the last month of the regular season. Well, Cleveland is even better in most categories, ranked #1 over the final month in team batting average, OBP, and OPS, while #2 in runs scored. The Indians are on a 42-9 winning run. They're 7-1 when Bauer throws on five days rest. And the Tribe have won five of the last seven meetings. I'm playing the Cleveland Indians in Game-1 on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -162 | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Arizona Diamondbacks with Greinke over Ray on Wednesday. Zack Greinke has been as good as it gets on his home mound with a 13-1 record in 18 starts, posting a 2.87 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and .209 BAA. He's faced the Rockies five times this season and once again, he owns dominant numbers, including a 0.93 WHIP with 37 Ks in 34 1/3 IP. Arizona has won 9 of the last 13 meetings, outscoring the Rockies by an average of 5.35 - 3.63. And while Paul Goldschmidt has been struggling a bit at the plate, J.D. Martinez has been crushing everything near the plate. Martinez has 29 HRs and 65 RBI in 62 games with the D-backs. He hit .404 and had a 1.409 OPS in 24 September games. We also note that as a team, Arizona ranked 5th, 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd, in home batting average, OBP, OPS, and runs scored, respectively. Colorado finished the season ranked 25th in runs scored on the road and we note that Jon Gray has a .281 BAA and 1.35 WHIP in 12 road starts. By the way, the Rockies have won just 5 of his last 16 road starts against teams with a winning record. Arizona heads into Wednesday on an 11-2 run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 20-6 run when Greinke starts at home. I'm backing the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Twins & Yankees in Tuesday's wildcard game. Ervin Santana has had his issues against the Yankees with a 5.66 ERA in 20 starts. More importantly, the veteran hurler has a 6.43 ERA in half-a-dozen starts at Yankee Stadium. He's struggled in postseason play with a 5.56 ERA in eight outings. Santana is catching a couple of Yankees at the wrong time, including Aaron Judge, who hit 15 homers over the final month of the season after a rough month in August. Luis Severino starts for the home team. The young righty has been the ace of the staff, but while his numbers at home are good, they aren't as strong as when he starts on the road. Severino got smacked for 3 earned runs and 6 base runners in just 3 innings in his lone start against the Twins this season. And we note that both teams were strong at the plate over the final month of the season with the Twins ranked 4th, 8th, 5th, and 3rd, in MLB in team batting average, OBP, OPS, and runs scored, respectively. The Yankees were even better, finishing 8th, 2nd, 2nd, and 1st in the same key categories. The Over is 10-2 in Severino's last 12 starts, including 7-1 to the Over in his last eight starts at home. We're playing the Over between the Twins & Yankees on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-19-17 | Indians +102 v. Angels | 6-3 | Win | 102 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday with Mike Clevinger over Tyler Skaggs. Â The Indians made it official on Saturday wrapping up the AL Central title. Â But it's no time to lose focus with Houston right on their tail for best record in the AL. Â The Tribe will send Mike Clevinger to the mound tonight, looking for a chance to gain a measure of revenge for an ugly outing against the Angels in July. Â Since then, the righthander hasn't allowed a multi-homer game in nine starts and he hasn't allowed a single homer in any of his last four starts. Â I expect Clevinger to get plenty of help at the plate with his team ranked #1 in MLB in September in most offensive categories, including runs scored, team batting average, OBP, and OPS. Â They're top-5 in both OBP and OPS against lefthanders this season and have won six straight starts against southpaws. Â They've also won six straight Clevinger starts and they're on a 9-1 run on the road against teams with a winning home record. Â The Angels have won just 3 of their last 16 against the Indians and while Skaggs pitched well last time out, he was tagged for 16 earned runs and 28 base runners in his previous four starts, spanning 18 1/3 innings. Â This marks Skaggs' first start against Cleveland this season, but he was clobbered in two outings against them in 2016. Â I expect more of the same here. Â I'm backing the Indians on Tuesday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-16-17 | Royals +247 v. Indians | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm backing the KC Royals on Saturday afternoon. Â The Tribe finally had their winning streak snapped last night after flirting with a loss on Thursday before winning in extra-innings. Â They'll send Carlos Carrasco to the mound, but we do expect the energy to be a little down for the Indians with the streak now history and the more important postseason on the horizon. Â We also have an opposing starting pitcher in Jason Hammel who has been successful against the Tribe this season. Hammel owns a 0.91 WHIP & .204 BAA in four starts against Cleveland. Â Offensively, KC ranks third in MLB in team batting average in September and 10th in OPS. We'll back the KC Royals to make it two straight over Cleveland. Â The Royals are our Daytime Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-12-17 | Pirates +108 v. Brewers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday with Gerrit Cole over Brent Suter. Â Milwaukee is mixing and matching their rotation right now and Suter will make the trip to the mound tonight. The lefty is not likely to last long even if he pitches well. Â The Pirates will counter with Cole, who has a 3.21 ERA in his career against the Brewers, including four decent starts in 2017. His one issue against the Brewers at Miller, was allowing HRs. Â However, he allowed just 12 base runners in 13 IP, keeping damage at a minimum. Â Cole seemingly has the HR pitch under control right now, allowing just one in his last four starts (27 1/3 IP) and none in his last three starts. Â He'll face a Milwaukee lineup ranked 29th, 25th, and 26th in September team batting average, OBP, and OPS. The Pirates are on an 8-1 run on the road with Cole on the mound and we expect another win here. Â I'm backing the Pirates, our Tuesday Shocker. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-06-17 | Angels v. A's OVER 9.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Over between the Angels & A's with Skaggs & Manaea on the mound. Tyler Skaggs has been roughed-up quite a bit, allowing 13 earned runs and 21 base runners in his last three starts, spanning just 12 1/3 IP. Â He's also allowed five home runs in his last 17 1/3 IP as his post all-star break struggles continue. Â The lefty has given up four earned runs or more in five of his 11 starts this season and the Halos have allowed an average of more than 5 rpg in his last six starts. Â LAA has been outstanding at the plate since acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips. Â And really, it started two games prior to their arrival. Â The Angels have scored 59 runs in their last seven games. Â Pitching has not been too hot for the boys from Anaheim and their last six opponents have scored an average of more than 6 rpg. Â We expect the A's to put runs on the board against Skaggs and for the hot LAA bats to do damage against Sean Manaea. Â We also note that while bullpens are deeper at this point of the season, the Angels' pen worked 14 2/3 innings the last two games, while Oakland's pen has seen 12 2/3 innings of work. Â The Angels enter on a 5-0 Over run, while the A's are 8-2 to the Over in Manaea's last 10 starts. I'm playing the Over on Wednesday, our KO release. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
I'm backing the L.A. Dodgers on Monday with Rich Hill over Robbie Ray. Â We played on Arizona and against Rich Hill last week at Chase Field and cashed the ticket. Â But Arizona's home/road dichotomy against left-handed starters couldn't be much wider. Â The Diamondbacks average over 6 1/2 rpg in home games against southpaws and own a sizzling record in 2017. Â But on the road they average less than 3 rpg against lefties and have a record well below .500. Â Rich Hill posted a 2.25 ERA & 0.88 WHIP in his nine starts prior to last week's loss in the desert. Â The lefty owns a 1.17 WHIP & .189 BAA in 10 home starts this season. Â The Dodgers are back home off a tough road trip and they've pounded southpaws in this situation, going 17-6 in home games against lefties, averaging 5.2 rpg. Â The Dodgers are on a 26-6 run against lefthanders, overall, and they're on a 42-10 run at home, while the D-backs are on a 3-10 slide in Ray's last 13 road starts against winning teams. Finally, L.A. is 27-7 in their last 34 home games against Arizona. Â We're backing the Dodgers, our Mismatch on Monday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-03-17 | Red Sox -118 v. Yankees | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on Sunday night in the matchup between Chris Sale & Luis Severino. Â As much as we like Severino and the way he's mastered a three-pitch repertoire, he still has been much better on the road than at home. Â Once again, we expect him to struggle in the Bronx. Â At the same time, Chris Sale bounced-back last time out. The Sox split Sale's back-to-back starts against the Yankees on August 13 and 19, including holding the Yanks to one earned run in seven innings of work in a 3-2 Boston win. Â Sale's been spectacular on the road this season and he owns a 2.12 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .204 BAA in four starts against New York this season. Â The Yankees are averaging just 3.7 rpg in home night games against southpaws this season. Â Boston enters on a 9-3 run off a loss, an 11-3 run when Sale throws on four days rest, and a 5-1 run in his last six road starts. Â I'm backing the Red Sox, our Knockout on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-03-17 | Royals v. Twins -149 | 5-4 | Loss | -149 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm laying the price with the Minnesota Twins on Sunday with Ervin Santana over Ian Kennedy. Â The Royals' righty has been an absolute disaster over his last six starts, saddled with a 9.58 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, and 3.08 HR's per 9 IP ratio. He's allowed 9 HR's in his last 26 1/3 IP. Â Making matters worse for KC, Kennedy has been almost as bad in his last four starts at Target Field, where he's allowed 14 earned runs, 31 base runners, and 5 homers in 15 2/3 IP. The Royals are 3-9 in his last 12 starts against teams with a winning record and they're 1-6 on the road against winning teams, overall. Ervin Santana, on the other hand, has posted a 2.95 ERA & 1.11 WHIP in his last six starts. Â His team will look to extend their run at home to 9-1 and to 6-1 with his last seven starts. Â I'm backing the Twins, our Afternoon Annihilator on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-02-17 | New York Mets - Game #2 v. Houston Astros - Game #2 -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm laying the runs line with Houston in Saturday's game-2 matchup between Brad Peacock and Seth Lugo. Â Five of the last six times the Mets have lost with Lugo on the mound, you would have cashed playing the runs line with their opponent. Â Lugo has been smacked for a 6.85 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and a 1.83 HR's per 9 IP ratio in his last four starts. It's hard to imagine he'll get the kind of run support to hang around in this one with the Mets off a weak offensive month, finished August ranked 28th, 29th, and 28th, in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. Â Lugo is expected to be on a pitch count for the second straight start (likely 80 pitches give or take), which means there's a chance Houston gets to the Mets' shaky pen even earlier than they normally would. Â Brad Peacock has gone in the opposite direction in his last four starts, posting a 2.83 ERA & 1.30 WHIP. Â He's also 7-1 in his last 13 starts with a 3.10 ERA. Â His team is a perfect 10-0 against the runs line in their last 10 wins with the righthander on the mound. Â I'm betting on more of the same. Â I'm laying the runs line with the Astros in game-2 of Saturday's double-header. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-30-17 | Giants v. Padres -131 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
I'm backing the SDG Padres on Wednesday with Travis Wood over Ty Blach in a battle of southpaws. Â Neither team lights up the scoreboard against left-handed pitchers, but we believe the Padres are getting "just what the doctor ordered" when facing Blach tonight. Â Ty Blach has been a disaster of late, saddled with an ERA of 8.83, a 1.84 WHIP, and a 2.21 HR's per 9 IP ratio. His road numbers are bad for the season, including a .312 BAA. Â SDG counters with Travis Wood, who owns a big-time PETCO / everywhere else, dichotomy. Â Wood has been spectacular pitching at this venue, posting a 2.02 ERA & 0.82 WHIP in his last six appearances, going back to last season. Â He'll face a lineup that can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag when it comes to stepping in the box against southpaws. Â SFO has won just 22 of 68 road games on the season and just one of Blach's last six road starts. SDG enters on a 6-1 run at home against teams playing less than .400 baseball on the road. Â We'll back the Padres, our Mid-Week Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-29-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -141 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday as they look to bounce back from last night's 4-3 loss. The Rockies had 13 hits last night, but left 11 men on base and went 1 for 7 with RISP. Â I expect a big night tonight from the offense, facing struggling Michael Fulmer. Â The Detroit righty has been tagged with a 5.97 ERA & 1.41 WHIP in his last six starts, spanning 34 2/3 IP. Colorado, meanwhile, averages 6 rpg in home night games against right-handers. Detroit averages less than 4 rpg in road night games against righties and one thing about German Marquez, he sets his team up for wins at home. Â In fact, Colorado will aim for their ninth straight home win when Marquez toes the rubber, winning their last eight by an average margin of more than 3 1/2 rpg. The Tigers are 2-9 in their last 11 on the road and 1-6 in Fulmer's last seven road starts. Â I'm backing the Rockies, our Mismatch release on Tuesday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-27-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
I'm backing the Boston Red Sox as they look to stave off a sweep at the hands of the Orioles. Baltimore got to lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez yesterday, but face a righty today in Doug Fister and the O's are just 3-10 in road day games against righties this season. There have been times when Fister has struggled and times when he looked very good with Boston, like last time out, for example, and his numbers have been decent in his four starts since taking David Price's spot. Baltimore sends Wade Miley to the mound and while he hasn't allowed a ton of earned runs of late, his propensity to walk a lot of batters likely catches up to him here. Miley has walked 13 batters in his last 18 2/3 IP and he's average more than 5 walks per 9 IP on the season. Â He's also struggled on the road all season and we believe he'll provide Boston with "just what the doctor ordered." Boston is on a 16-7 run at home against lefthanders and they're on a 39-17 run in their last 56 against teams with a losing record. I'm backing the Red Sox to end the losing streak on Sunday. Boston is my Knockout release. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-26-17 | Rangers -107 v. A's | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Saturday afternoon with Cole Hamels over Sean Manaea. Hamels is red-hot and that's nothing new. Â The southpaw is 31-7 as a member of the Texas Rangers. Hamels owns a 1.86 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in August, winning all four starts. Â We don't see any letting-up against a team he's dominated, producing a 2.94 ERA in five starts against Oakland. Â Sean Manaea has not enjoyed the month of August, saddled with an 11.37 ERA & 2.52 WHIP. Â He's allowed a whopping 16 earned runs, 32 base runners, and 5 home runs, while lasting a total of just 12 2/3 innings in four starts. Â Elvis Andrus has crushed Manaea in their head-to-head meetings and Texas is averaging 6 rpg in road day against against lefthanders and over 5 rpg against southpaws, overall. The Rangers are on a 28-5 run when Hamels starts against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the A's are on a 0-6 slide off their last six wins and and 1-5 in Manaea's last six starts. I'm backing the Rangers, our Daytime Dominator on Saturday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-23-17 | Yankees -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
I'm backing the NY Yankees on the runs line with Luis Severino over Jordan Zimmermann. Â Severino has been spectacular on the road in 2017. Â The young righty has posted a 2.40 ERA & 1.08 WHIP in 13 road starts this season, to go along with a 0.59 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Â Severino has allowed just 68 hits in 82 2/3 road IP, while striking out 98 batters. Â Each of New York's last seven wins with Severino on the mound covered the runs line, where their average margin of victory is more than 3 rpg. Â The Yanks are averaging over 5 rpg in road night games against righthanders and should have little trouble with Jordan Zimmermann. Â The right-hander has had it rough this season, especially in his last two outings, allowing 14 earned runs, 18 hits, and 2 home runs in just 8 2/3 IP. Â His season-long overall ERA is closing in on 6.00, which is currently his home ERA, along with a .302 BAA. Â We note that the Tigers have allowed an average of 5.9 rpg in Zimmermann's last eight home starts. Â They're 3-13 in their last 16 games and all 13 losses came by two runs or more, a perfect 0-13 against the runs line. Â I expect more of the same and I'm backing the Yankees on the runs line on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-22-17 | Brewers -110 v. Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
I'm backing the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday with Jimmy Nelson over Jeff Samardzija. Â The Brewers went into last night on a 6-1 run, scoring an average of 6.4 rpg in their previous eight games. Â But after running into red-hot Chris Stratton and a solid outing from the Giants' pen, I expect Milwaukee to get right back on track against Jeff Samardzija. Â The righthander has been a workhorse, averaging over 110 pitches per outing in his last five starts, but it looks like it's catching up to him, allowing 7 earned runs and 19 base runners in his last 12 1/3 IP. Â Samardzija pitched well in a start at Miller Park in early June, but got shelled for an 8.38 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, and a .349 BAA, in his previous four starts against the Brewers. Â Jimmy Nelson owns a 3.38 ERA & 1.03 WHIP in his last five road starts and Milwaukee has won eight of his last 11 starts against teams with a losing record. Â SFO, meanwhile, has won just seven of Samardzija's last 23 starts against teams with a winning record. Â I'm betting the Brewers get right back on track at the plate against a somewhat worn down pitcher who's been losing some effectiveness in his last couple starts. Â The Brewers are my KO on Tuesday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-20-17 | Mariners v. Rays -137 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday afternoon with Snell over Gallardo. Â The Rays showed signs of breaking out of their funk by scoring 6 runs last night. Unfortunately, they allowed 7. Â But Tampa should have little trouble picking up where they left off at the plate against a struggling Yovani Gallardo. The veteran righty has been tagged for 14 earned runs, 24 base runners, and 5 home runs in his last three outings, spanning just 13 1/3 IP. Â He faced the Rays four times last season and allowed 27 hits and a 6.27 ERA in 18 1/3 IP. And while the Mariners have won just three of Gallardo's last 10 when pitching on five days rest, the Rays have won four straight when Snell starts at home against teams with a winning record. We're backing the Tampa Bay Rays, our Daytime Dominator on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-19-17 | Dodgers -143 v. Tigers | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the L.A. Dodgers on Saturday afternoon with Hyun-Jin Ryu over Michael Fulmer. Â The Dodgers are on an historic run, winning 51 of their last 60 games and besides the fact we're backing the best team in baseball over the struggling Tigers, we also have starting pitchers headed in the opposite direction. Â Ryu has allowed just 11 earned runs and 49 base runners in his last seven starts, spanning 39 2/3 IP, for a 2.49 ERA & 1.23 WHIP. Â He doesn't always eat-up a lot of innings, but it's not needed with the Dodger relievers backing him up. Â Los Angeles will head into this one on 4-0 & 7-1 runs with Ryu on the mound. Â Detroit's Michael Fulmer has been struggling, allowing 19 earned runs and 36 base runners in his last 21 2/3 IP, and the Tigers lost all four starts. With the Dodgers averaging nearly 6 rpg in day games against righties, Fulmer is likely going to need a lot of support, but his team is averaging less than 4 rpg in home day games against southpaws. Â The Dodgers are on a 30-8 run when Ryu pitches on the road against teams with a losing record. Â Meanwhile, the Tigers have dropped four straight against lefties and five in a row, overall. Â We're backing the Dodgers, our Daytime Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-18-17 | Mariners v. Rays -130 | 7-1 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays with Pruitt over Ramirez. Austin Pruitt has three quality outings under his belt in his last three starts, posting a 1.97 ERA & 1.04 WHIP. Â The pitcher Pruitt replaced in the rotation will stand on the mound for the Mariners tonight. Erasmo Ramirez pitched well in his first home outing against the Angels, but the righthander got lit-up in two road outings with Seattle, allowing seven earned runs, 13 hits, and a whopping 5 home runs in just 8 1/3 IP. Â I believe Ramirez will provide "just what the doctor ordered" for Tampa Bay's bats. I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays, my Beatdown release on Friday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros -146 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Wednesday with Charlie Morton over Taijuan Walker. Â Houston finally broke out of a slump at the plate tallying eight extra base hits in a 9-4 win on Tuesday. Â I like backing good teams when they first snap out of a slump and we have a Houston team that leads MLB in several offensive categories, including HRs. That's a problem for Taijuan Walker, who has been giving up the long ball a little too often. Â Walker has allowed eight homers in his last six starts, spanning 33 2/3 IP, for a 2.14 HRs per 9 IP ratio. Â The righthander has been clobbered in his last six starts in Houston, saddled with a 6.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, a .312 BAA and a ridiculously high 3.30 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Â Charlie Morton should receive a lot of help at the plate in this one and we expect it to be more than enough to put Houston in the win column again. Â Arizona has dropped six straight Walker starts and they have won just two of their last nine on the IL road. Â Meanwhile, Houston is on a 37-15 IL run, including an 8-3 mark in the last 11 meetings with Arizona. Â I'm backing the Astros, our Wipeout on Wednesday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-15-17 | Tigers -111 v. Rangers | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing the Detroit Tigers with Justin Verlander over A.J. Griffin. Â The Ranger righty has spent time on the D-L this season, but he's also been pretty bad in his last five starts, including his most recent. Â Griffin owns a dubious 9.57 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a 4.78 HR's per 9 IP ratio (that's not a typo) in those outings. Â And after a decent start on August 3, he fell right back into his struggling ways last time out. Â I believe Detroit will provide Justin Verlander with all the offense he needs in this one and if he continues to pitch like he almost always does post all-star break, he won't need much help. Â Verlander has a sub 2.80 ERA in his last 48 starts after the break. Â He owns a 1.91 ERA & 1.02 WHIP in his last seven starts, overall and he's had no trouble at all in his last five starts against Texas. Â Griffin has offered little more than BP against the Tigers with a 10.88 ERA and .371 BAA in five starts against them. Â I expect another Verlander win. I'm backing the Tigers, my Pitching Mismatch. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-13-17 | Reds v. Brewers -139 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm backing the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday with Matt Garza over Sal Romano. The Brewers look to have finally busted out of their offensive slump, scoring 16 runs in their last two games. Â I expect Milwaukee to get to Sal Romano for the second time in as many chances this season. Â The Brewers tagged Romano for 3 earned runs, 7 base runners, and 2 home runs in just 3 IP earlier this season. The rookie righty has allowed 16 earned runs and 42 base runners in his last 25 2/3 IP. Â Milwaukee counters with veteran hurler Matt Garza who will look to bounce back from a rough outing in Minnesota. Â Prior to that, Garza posted a 1.78 ERA & 1.06 WHIP in five starts. He's allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 4 starts at home and the Brewers allowed a grand total of just 8 runs in those outings. Â The Brewers are on a 12-5 run at home against teams with a losing record and 4-1 in their last five at home against Cincy. Meanwhile, the Reds are 2-9 in their last 11 against teams with a winning record. I'm backing the Brewers, our KO release on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-12-17 | Mets v. Phillies -131 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday with Aaron Nola over Steven Matz. Â These two pitchers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with Matz having his worst season and Nola slamming the door start after start. The Phillies' righty has held each of his last nine opponents to 2 earned runs or less, posting a 1.76 ERA & 1.04 WHIP. He has 70 strikeouts and has allowed just 4 home runs during the run. Â The Phils have won each of his last three home starts and five of his last six when throwing on five days rest. Â Meanwhile, Matz has been a disaster after posting a 2.12 ERA through his first four starts. He's been tagged for an 11.01 ERA in his last six outings. Â We note the Phils are decent at home against southpaws and we expect a decent outing at the plate against the struggling lefty. Â The Mets are on a 0-4 slide when Matz starts on the road and they have won just one of his last seven, overall. Â I'm backing the Phillies on Saturday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-10-17 | Angels v. Mariners -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm laying the runs line with the Mariners with James Paxton and Tyler Skaggs doing battle. Â Seattle has been a runs line winner in all 13 games they have won with Paxton on the hill. Â The lefty has allowed just 8 earned runs and 36 base runners in his last seven starts, spanning 45 1/3 IP, for a 1.59 ERA & 0.79 WHIP. Â Paxton has owned the Angels in his career and this season has been no different. Â Not a single current player on the Angels' roster has hit better than .250 against Paxton and the southpaw has held Mike Trout to a .136 batting average in 22 at-bats with no homers and not a single RBI. Â Tyler Skaggs hasn't seen a lot of action this year or last, taking the starting rubber just 16 times. Â The Angels have lost 10 of those outings, including seven by two runs or more. Seattle has tagged Skaggs for a 5.72 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and a .319 BAA in five starts against the Mariners and Seattle is averaging 5.3 rpg in 20 evening tilts against lefthanders in 2017. Â I'm laying the runs line with the Mariners on Friday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-09-17 | Twins v. Brewers -149 | 4-0 | Loss | -149 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Milwaukee Brewers with Brandon Woodruff over Bartolo Colon. Â The aging veteran comes in off a complete game, allowing 4 ER in 9 IP against the Rangers. Â But that's certainly an anomaly this season for Bartolo Colon. Â We have gone against him on several occasions and produced profits. Â Colon has been a disaster on the road this season with a 7.33 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .344 BAA, and a 1.97 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Â His numbers are even worse in night action. Â Colon was bombed in his one start at Miller Park this season and I expect more of the same tonight. Â Brandon Woodruff pitched well in his debut, tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts in a Milwaukee win over Tampa Bay. Â He was Milwaukee's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2016 and led all Minor League pitchers with 173 strikeouts last year. Â The Brewers are on an 11-3 run at home against teams with a losing record and he has Ryan Braun on his side. Â Braun is 8 of 13 in his last three starts and he's batting .412 with 2 HR's and 5 RBI in his 12 at-bats against Colon. Â We also have to note Minnesota's dreadful results on the IL road, winning just four of their last 30. Â We'll back the Brewers on Wednesday, our Heavy Hitter. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-09-17 | Pirates v. Tigers -123 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday with Justin Verlander over Ivan Nova. Â These two have been heading in opposite directions since the All-Star break with Nova struggling and Verlander pitching extremely well. Â Nova returns to a stadium that has not treated him well, saddled with an ERA north of 8.00 in three starts at Comerica. Â Verlander came into this season having fared much better post all-star break over the last three seasons combined and he's at it again in 2017. The righthander has allowed 10 earned runs and 44 base runners in his last six starts, spanning 39 innings. Â Verlander also has 33 strikeouts in his last 27 innings of work. Â And while he normally strikes out batter with his 4-seamer, he did it with a lot of off-speed stuff mixed-in in his last start finishing with 10 K's in 7 innings. Verlander is 28-5 in 40 IL starts, posting a 3.03 ERA. The Tigers are on a 41-10 run in IL home games against teams with a losing record, while the Pirates have dropped five straight IL road games and five of Nova's last six road games, overall. Â I'm backing the Tigers on Wednesday, our Situational Smash. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-07-17 | Padres +118 v. Reds | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm backing the SDG Padres on Monday with Jhoulys Chacin over Tim Adleman. Â The Padres have played .552 baseball since June 21, spanning 38 games. Spread that win percentage over the course of the season thus far and they'd be good enough to be in first place in both the NL and AL Central divisions and ranked second in the NL and AL East divisions. They have played a better brand of baseball than most people thought they were capable of this season, including winning eight of Jhoulys Chacin's last 10 starts and six in a row. Â Chacin's home/road dichotomy looks huge at first glance, but the righthander has been on fire in his last 10 starts, both at home and on the road. Â He's posted a 2.30 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 0.86 HR's per 9 IP ratio in those 10 outings, including allowing just 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in three road starts (18 1/3 IP). Â Chacin went a full seven innings in a 4-2 win over the Reds on June 14. Cincinnati has won just six of 23 games since the season resumed post all-star break, allowing an average of 6.13 rpg. Tim Adleman is likely to throw more fuel on the fire, allowing a whopping 30 earned runs, 58 base runners, and 11 home runs in his last 35 2/3 IP. Â His team has won just one of his last six starts and the Friars are on a 6-2 run in Cincy. Â I'm backing the Padres, our DogPound release on Monday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-06-17 | Rangers v. Twins -140 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Minnesota Twins on Sunday with Jose Berrios over Nick Martinez. Â We cashed when we went against Berrios last time out, but it certainly wasn't his fault the Twins lost. Â In fact, he pitched better than we thought he would and we were a bit fortunate to have beaten the righthander. Â Berrios is 5-1 in six home starts this season with a 2.61 ERA & 0.92 WHIP. Â The 23-year old has allowed just one home run in 41 1/3 IP at home this season, while holding the opposition to a .200 batting average. He'll face a Rangers' lineup with a poor .229 team batting average in day games. Nick Martinez is set to start for Texas and he's allowed 26 earned runs and 2.2 HR per 9 IP in his last 41 IP. Â He's been horrible on the road in seven appearances this season and has a .339 BAA with RISP, including a .364 BAA with 2 outs and RISP. Â Finally, in three starts against Minnesota, Martinez has been tagged for a 6.06 ERA. Â We're backing the Minnesota Twins, our Sunday Knockout. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on the runs line when Charlie Morton and Marco Estrada take the mound for their respective teams. Â Estrada is coming off a couple of improved starts, but this will be a huge step-up in level of competition from the White Sox & A's. And before his last outing, Estrada had been tagged for an 8.87 ERA & 2.06 WHIP in 10 starts. Â The righthander allowed an average of 6.5 walks and 1.97 home runs per 9 IP in those outings. Â Estrada has been bad on the road this season and horrible in night games. Â It's tough to imagine he'll receive a lot of support from an offense that finished July ranked in the bottom-third in batting average, OBP, and OPS. Â Houston was terrific again over the last month at the plate and the bats got hot again last night after a little lull. Â Houston is 30 games above .500 against righties, averaging nearly 6 rpg. Â Charlie Morton owns a home WHIP of 1.19 and a home BAA of .215 on the season and has punched out 63 batters in 59 2/3 IP. Â He was even better in five July starts, allowing just 29 base runners with a .165 BAA in 30 2/3 IP. Â If you believe the Astros are going to win a Charlie Morton start, you might as well play the runs line. Â They've won 10 of his starts this season, covering the RL in each and every one, winning by an average margin of 5.4 rpg. Â We'll back the Astros, our Runs Line Wipeout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-04-17 | Mariners -150 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
I'm backing the Seattle Mariners on Friday with James Paxton over Jason Hammel. Â The hottest pitcher in baseball is on the mound tonight for Seattle and we expect another red-hot performance. The Mariners have won each of Paxton's last six starts where he's posted a 1.37 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, & .182 BAA, while allowing no home runs and striking out 46 batters in 39 1/3 IP. Â In fact, he has 34 K's and just 1 walk in his last four starts. Â Paxton faces a KC team with a 3-8 record in home night games against southpaws, averaging just 3.1 rpg. Â Seattle averages just under 5 rpg against rigties and Jason Hammel has been saddled with a 4.68 ERA in 13 home starts this season. Â KC is just 4-9 in those outings. Â And while Paxton has been on fire, Hammel has a 4.75 ERA in his last six at home. Â Add in Seattle's 8-2 run on the road and we have plenty of reasons to lay the road price. I'm backing the Seattle Mariners, our Knockout on Friday. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-03-17 | Mets v. Rockies -150 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Colorado Rockies on Thursday as they look to take the rubber game of the series with the Mets. Â The Rockies have clobbered righties at home whether they play under the sun or under the lights. Â In this case, they'll look to knock around Rafael Montero in day action with the Mets' righty coming off a rough outing last time out. Â Most importantly, we don't believe the Mets will be able to keep up in this one. New York is 7-17 in day action against righthanders on the season, averaging about 3.5 rpg. Â German Marquez went 4-0 in five July starts, posting a 3.51 ERA & 1.05 WHIP, with a .228 BAA. Â And the Rockies are on a 6-0 run when Marquez toes the Coors Field rubber where he's allowed just 11 earned runs and 43 base runners in 40 1/3 IP. Â The righthander has 39 strikeouts and just 8 walks during the six-game run. Â We also note the Rockies have averaged about 7 rpg in those six starts and average nearly 6 rpg at home against righties on the season, overall. Â Finally, the Mets enter on a 1-8 slide on the road against teams playing better than .600 baseball. Â I'm backing the Rockies, our Daytime Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-02-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 3-0 | Loss | -136 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday with Jake Arrieta over Zack Godley. Â The Arizona righty has pitched well this season, but runs into a buzzsaw tonight. Â The Cubs are 14-3 since the All-Star break ended and finished July ranked 4th best in MLB in OPS, 8th in team batting average, and 3rd in home runs hit. Â Arizona has slipped a bit, currently three games below .500 post-all star break. Â They're on a 4-10 slide away from home and have slipped four-games under .500 on the road this season. Â The D-backs bats have gone into a bit of a slumber, scoring just 17 runs in their last five road games. Â We note Arizona is 24th in OPS and 27th in team batting average on the road this season, and it's not going to be easy righting the ship against Arrieta, who has regained his form. Â The Cubs' righthander has held opponents to six hits or less in 13 straight starts. Arrieta is on extra rest and the Cubs are a perfect 8-0 when he throws with six days off between games, which is the situation he's in tonight. Â Chicago's on a 6-1 run at home against Arizona and have allowed just 25 runs in their last 10 games, overall. Â We'll back the Cubs, our Midweek Mismatch on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-01-17 | Twins v. Padres +101 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 101 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
I'm backing the SDG Padres on Tuesday with Jhoulys Chacin over Jose Berriors. Chacin continues to pitch well at home and in fact, he's pitching well everywhere of late. Â Jose Berrios looks like he's wearing down a bit after a strong start to the season. Â Chacin owns a 2.59 ERA & 1.10 WHIP in his last nine starts. Â The righthander has been virtually unhittable at PETCO, where he owns a 2.05 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .189 BAA, and 0.77 HR's per 9 IP ratio in 11 home starts this season. Â It's no wonder the Friars have won five straight with Chacin on the mound. Â Berrios seems to be hitting the wall a bit, saddled with a 5.79 ERA & 1.76 WHIP in his last five outings and the Twins have lost each of his last four road starts. Â Minnesota has won just one of their last seven on the road, overall, and have lost four straight on the IL road. Â SDG actually owns a winning record this season in home night games and I expect another in the win column tonight. Â Also, we should note the Padres held onto all-star reliever Brad Hand (asking a big price) and he'll be available tonight. Â I'm backing the Padres, our Knockout release on Tuesday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-31-17 | Indians -129 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -129 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Monday with Mike Clevinger over Doug Fister. Â Clevinger should be champing at the bit to get back on the mound off a rare weak performance. Â He's certainly been reliable, posting a 1.36 ERA & 1.03 WHIP in his previous six outings, finishing with more strikeouts (35) than base runners allowed (34) in 33 IP. His numbers are outstanding in seven road starts this season, including a 1.09 WHIP and .157 BAA. Â And while Clevinger is backed by an offense that ranks 4th in team batting average and 5th in OPS in July, Boston has struggled at the plate, ranked 19th and 29th in the same two categories, respectively. Â The Cleveland bats ought to provide more than enough support against Doug Fister. The righthander gets the nod out of the pen in place of the injured David Price. Fister has been smashed for a 7.46 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and .309 BAA in seven outings, including four starts with the Sox. Â And while his team is on a 2-6 slide, the Indians enter on a 9-1 run, overall, and they're on a 7-0 run against righties. Â I'm backing the Indians, our Monday Mismatch! Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-30-17 | Cubs -119 v. Brewers | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Sunday with John Lackey over Zach Davies. Â The Milwaukee hurler has been a disaster at home this season, including his lone home start against the Cubs. Â He'll face a Cubs' team that has turned up the heat, especially on the road where they're on a 10-1 winning run. Â John Lackey goes for the Cubs today. Â The veteran was roughed up by the Nationals on June 28, but he's pitched well in his other five starts since June 18, posting a 2.16 ERA & 0.90 WHIP. Lackey has had little trouble with the Brewers over the last few years and we expect another strong outing today. Â The Cubs enter on an 8-0 run on the road against righthanders and rank 6th in MLB in OPS in July. Â Finally, the struggling Brewers are on a 2-9 slide against righthanders. Â I'm backing the Cubs on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-30-17 | Royals v. Red Sox -154 | 5-3 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on Sunday with Drew Pomeranz over Jason Hammel. Both bullpens got busy last night with the starters lasting just 4 innings for the Royals & Red Sox. Â Boston got the win and snapped KC's nine game winning streak. Â The starters will be called upon to last in this one and we believe Pomeranz owns the advantage. Â Boston is on an 8-2 in the lefthander's last 10 home starts. Â He's posted a 2.47 ERA & 1.27 WHIP in his last eight starts, overall. Â And Pomeranz will face a KC offense averaging just 1.7 rpg in road day games against southpaws this season. KC counters with Jason Hammel and the team has won just 6 of his last 20 starts and they're 1-6 when he throws on five days rest. Â Boston's offense has been more productive than KC in this situation, not plating runs-a-plenty, but about 4.6 rpg against righties and that should be good enough today. Finally, after last night, KC is now just 6-19 on the road against teams playing better than .600 baseball at home. Â I'm backing the Boston Red Sox, our Afternoon Annihilator on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-29-17 | Mets -133 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
I'm backing the NY Mets on Saturday with Jacob deGrom over Yovani Gallardo. deGrom is putting up Dwight Gooden-like numbers right now and we expect continued success here. Â The righthander is 8-0 in his last eight starts and he's now allowed 1 run or less in 43 of his first 96 starts, tying Gooden. Â deGrom has a .186 BAA with his fastball and he's facing a Seattle offense ranked 28th in OPS and 29th in team batting average in July. Â I expect deGrom to get the necessary help from his mates. Â The Mets are averaging 5.4 rpg over their last 15 games and they have won 7 of their last 10 games, overall. Â Yovani Gallardo makes his second start after returning from the bullpen. Â The righthander pitched well in relief, but not so much as a starter. Â Gallardo had a 5.08 ERA in five April starts, 6.49 in five May starts, and a 6.75 ERA in his five starts in June before moving to the pen. The Mariners are just 1-7 in Gallardo's last eight starts on five days rest. Â Meanwhile, the Mets are on a 13-3 run with deGrom on the mound and as a team, New York is 9-3 in their last 12 against AL teams. Â I'm backing the NY Mets our IL Daytime Dominator on Saturday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-28-17 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
I'm laying the runs line with the Houston Astros with Dallas Keuchel over Jordan Zimmermann. Â The Astros' ace is back on the hill for the first time since early June. Â Keuchel was sizzling hot before the injury, posting likely Cy Young winning numbers. Â While he may be on a pitch count tonight, I expect strong results after making two solid rehab starts in the minors, allowing just one run and five hits in eight innings. Â Houston has won all six of Keuchel's road starts this season and the lefty posted a 2.20 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and .199 BAA. Â Houston is 8-2 against the runs line in their 10 wins with Keuchel on the mound this season and they're on an 11-1 runs line run over their last 12 wins. Â If you believe Houston is going to win a game, you might as well lessen the juice and lay the run-and-a-half. Â Jordan Zimmermann has been smacked around in his four July starts, saddled with an ERA north of 7.00, a 1.84 WHIP, and a .354 BAA. The Tigers have allowed a total of 31 runs, or nearly 8 rpg in those outings. Â With the way Houston's offense plates runners, I believe Zimmermann is in for more of the same tonight. Â I'm laying the runs line with the Astros on Friday night. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-26-17 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on the runs line with Chris Sale over Andrew Moore. Â Boston has been struggling a bit but the combination of Sale on the mound and facing Moore at the plate should be a case of "just what the doctor ordered." Boston's last 12 wins with Sale on the bump have all covered the runs line. Â In fact, Boston won those 12 games by an average margin of more than 5 rpg. Â Sale has produced great numbers in his last four starts against the Mariners, including two strong outings at SAFECO. Â He's backed by a pen with the third stingiest ERA in MLB, and at the plate by an offense averaging 6.1 rpg in daytime action against righthanders. Â Andrew Moore has allowed a whopping 9 home runs in 30 IP, for a 2.7 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Â He only has 13 K's during the stretch and the Mariners have allowed about 5 rpg when he starts. Making matters worse for Seattle, they average just 3.2 rpg in home day games against southpaws and they're 2-10 against the runs line in their last 12 home losses. Â I'm backing the Red Sox, our Runs Line Wipeout on Wednesday afternoon. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-25-17 | Rockies v. Cardinals -135 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
I'm backing the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday with Lance Lynn over Jon Gray. The Rockies are at their offensive worst in road night games, scoring just 4 rpg on the season. Â In fact, they have won just three of their last 16 road games, overall and just 6 of Gray's last 23 road starts. Â Jon Gray has been a disaster on the road, posting a 9.00 ERA in four starts, lasting a grand total of just 15 innings, while being saddled with a 2.06 WHIP and .348 BAA. Â Gray tends to strikeout batters or get hammered by them, doing both generally every time he takes the mound. Â Lance Lynn is back on track for the Redbirds after a couple tough outings last month. Lynn has begun to rely a little more on his off-speed pitches and he's found success, posting a 1.76 ERA & 0.91 WHIP in his last five starts. Â Lynn should receive the required help at the plate where the Cards enter on a 10-3 run against starting pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30. Â St. Louis is on a 19-7 run at home against the Rockies and we'll back them here. Â I'm playing the Cardinals, our Pitching Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-24-17 | Astros -155 v. Phillies | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Monday with Brad Peacock over Vince Velasquez. The Houston righty has crushed it in 2017, including on the road where he owns a 2.62 ERA with 43 K's in 34 1/3 IP, while allowing just 1 HR. Â We expect Peacock to continue his excellent season against a Philly lineup averaging just 3.7 rpg in home night games against righthanders. Â The Phillies have won five of seven, but the competition takes a serious uptick tonight. Â Houston is averaging over 6.5 rpg on the road against righties and they're on a 15-3 run against them, overall. Â They'll look to get after former Astro Vince Velasquez, who makes his second start since May 30. Â Velasquez has allowed too many home runs, giving up at least one long ball in 10 of his 11 starts this season, while allowing 2.30 HR's per 9 IP at home. Â Velasquez has a home ERA north of 6.00, and simply throws too many pitches over the plate. Â Houston should feast on his stuff. Â The Phils are 2-8 in the righthanders last 10 home starts and they're on a 1-5 slide when he throws on five days rest. Meanwhile, the Astros are on a 7-0 run against NL opponents and they're on a 5-0 run when Peacock takes the road mound. Â I'm laying the price with Houston, our Heavy Hitter. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-23-17 | Nationals -114 v. Diamondbacks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Washington Nationals on Sunday with Stephen Strasburg over Robbie Ray. Â As well as Ray has pitched in the big scheme of things, the bottom line is that he has not been reliable at Chase Stadium, both this season and in previous seasons. Â Ray, who owns an overall 2.97 ERA, has a hefty 4.64 ERA at home, along with a 1.45 WHIP. Â Ray's biggest problem is his control, or lack thereof, walking 31 batters in just 52 1/3 innings at home. Â The Nats aren't a team you want to give free passes to and I believe they'll make him "pay for his sins" in this one. Â Struggling at home has been par for the course for Ray who was saddled with a 5.16 ERA in his previous 16 starts at Chase before 2017. Stephen Strasburg struggled in his first start after the break, but bounced back last time out with a sizzling-hot start at Cincinnati. Â And like Ray, Strasburg does his best work on the road, where he owns a 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a .198 BAA. Â The Nats enter on a 6-0 run when Strasburg throws on five days rest and they're on a 20-6 run when he starts on the road. Â Finally, the Nats are on a 16-7 run against Arizona, including having won four of the last five meetings in the desert. Â We're backing the Nationals, our Daytime Dominator on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-22-17 | Red Sox -124 v. Angels | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -124 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on Saturday with David Price over JC Ramirez. Â Price has found his rhythm after missing time at the start of the season. Â The lefthander has allowed just 2 earned runs and 22 base runners in his last three starts, spanning 20 innings, and he has a 29 to 4, K to BB ratio in his last four starts. Â Price has owned the Angels in his last five starts against them. Â LAA is averaging just 3.43 rpg at home against southpaws, so we don't expect a bust-out performance here. Â Boston will face a righthander who has been struggling at home. Ramirez has allowed 14 earned runs and 26 base runners in his last three trips to the home bump, lasting just 14 2/3 IP. He's likely going to need help at the plate tonight from his teammates, but before hanging 7 runs on the Nats a couple nights ago, the Halos had totaled just 18 runs in their previous eight games. LAA ranks 25th or worse in several key offensive categories and I don't like their chances against Price or the Sox' 3rd lowest bullpen ERA. Â Boston hasn't enjoyed facing LAA over the last few years, but we believe they'll take this one on Saturday night. Â I'm backing the Red Sox, our Weekend Wipeout. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-21-17 | Astros -137 v. Orioles | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Friday with Mike Fiers over Ubaldo Jimenez. Â The Baltimore righty has been a disaster across the board, saddled with a 7.01 ERA on the season, including a ridiculously, Bartolo Colon-like 8.13 ERA at Camden Yards. Â Three Astros, including Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, and Evan Gattis are a combined 22 of 58 against Jimenez, a sizzling .379 batting average. Â And while Jimenez has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 13 2/3 IP, his counterpart, Mike Fiers has allowed the same amount of earned runs, but in 54 IP. Â The Astros were off yesterday, but lost to Seattle on Wednesday. Houston is on a 23-6 run off a loss. They're on a 9-3 run when Fiers starts on the road and Houston is on a 13-3 run in their last 16 against the O's. Finally, Baltimore has won just 2 of their last 10 against teams playing better than .600 baseball. Â I'm backing the Astros, our Knockout GOW. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-19-17 | Diamondbacks -158 v. Reds | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -158 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
I'm backing the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday with Zack Greinke over Tim Adleman. Arizona busted loose last night, scoring 11 runs in a 9-run win over the Reds, which included 9 extra base hits. Â The outburst signals a buy for me, especially after making the trade for J.D. Martinez who is expected to join the team tonight. Â The D-backs added to Cincy's woes last night. Â The Reds are 0-5 since the break and all five losses came by more than one run. In fact, they were outscored 46-14 during the skid. Â Tim Adleman gets the start for Cincy tonight and he's been smashed for 13 earned runs, 25 base runners, and a ridiculous 7 home runs in his last 14 1/3 IP. Â All six of the Reds' last half-dozen losses with Adleman on the hill came by more than one run. Â Zack Greinke is on fire, allowing just 97 base runners, while striking out 116 batters in his last 101 IP. Â His ERA is under 2.00 in his last five starts against the Reds, which included two strong starts at Great American Ballpark. Â Greinke is 8-2 in 13 career starts against Cincy, posting a stingy 2.21 ERA. Â One final note: Arizona is averaging over 5 rpg in road night games against righthanders. We'll back the Diamondbacks, our Mismatch on Wednesday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-18-17 | Yankees -124 v. Twins | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
I'm backing the NY Yankees with Cessa over Colon on Tuesday. Â We weren't too sure we'd get another chance to go against Bartolo Colon after he was DFA'd by the Braves, but the Twins have picked him up and here's at least one more opportunity. Â Colon looks to have hit the wall with an ERA over 8.00 both at home (ATL) and away. Â And the aging vet has an ERA north of 9.00 in night starts this season. Â Colon wasn't fooling anyone at Triple-A Rochester on Thursday, getting smacked for 4 runs and 4 hits in less than 4 full innings of work. Â Hard to imagine he'll find the sweet elixir against a Yankee lineup averaging 5.5 rpg in road night games against righties. Â And the Twins bullpen ERA is one of the worst in the league. Colon was cut by the Braves after allowing 92 hits and a total of 112 base runners in just 63 innings of work. Besides his 1.78 WHIP and 8.14 ERA, the righty has a .338 BAA in 2017. Â Luis Cessa is looking for a win and I suspect he'll receive plenty of support at the plate tonight. Â The Twins have won just 17 of their last 57 against teams with a winning record, which happens to be their same record in their last 57 at home against the Yankees. Â But this is all about Colon and we'll go against him here. Â I'm backing the NY Yankees, our MISMATCH on Tuesday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-17-17 | Blue Jays +118 v. Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 118 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday with Marcus Stroman over Eduardo Rodriguez. Stroman makes his first post-all star start in 2017 and he's been a better pitcher after the break. Over the last three seasons, the right-hander's post-all star ERA is 1 1/2 runs lower than it has been before the break, and his WHIP is a stingy 1.15. Â Stroman closed the first half well, allowing just 3 earned runs, 22 base runners, and no home runs in his final three starts, spanning 19 2/3 innings. We also liked the fact Stroman had a 33-18 groundball to flyball ratio. Â His Jays have won six of their last eight at Fenway and they're on a 4-1 run when they face tonight's pitcher, Eduardo Rodgriguez. The Red Sox lefty had mixed results in his rehab stint and he's been bombed by the Jays, saddled with a 6.53 ERA & 6 home runs allowed in 27 1/3 IP. Â Most of the serious damage happened at Fenway. Finally, Boston Manager John Farrell said there will likely be roster moves made on Monday after a 16 inning game on Saturday and a doubleheader on Sunday put stress on the bullpen. Â The Jays enter on a 6-1 run on the road against teams with a winning record and they've won nine of Stroman's last 12 starts. I'm backing the Blue Jays our Monday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-16-17 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on the runs line on Sunday when Mike Fiers battles Kyle Gibson. The Astros are a perfect 5-0 when laying the 1.5 runs the last five times they have won with Fiers on the mound. Â Fiers has posted a strong, 2.65 ERA & 1.23 WHIP in his last 10 starts, going back nearly two full months. Â The RH shut down the Twins in a 7-2 win in late May. Â We also like the fact he has the offense behind him with Houston averaging nearly 6 rpg against righties. Â They'll face Kyle Gibson today and the Minnesota righty has allowed 9 homers in his last six starts, spanning just 33 IP, amounting to a hefty 2.45 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Â We also note the Twins have dropped eight of Gibson's starts this season and all eight were by two runs or more. Â The Twins evened-out the weekend series yesterday, but we'll back the Astros to get the win and cover the runs line on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-15-17 | Cubs -135 v. Orioles | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing the Chicago Cubs on Saturday with Jake Arrieta over Wade Miley. Energy was high from the northsiders last night after making the trade for White Sox hurler, Quintana. The bats came alive at the plate and we expect more of the same tonight. Chicago will face Wade Miley who has just one quality start since June 1. Miley posted a 7.48 ERA in June and an even worse, 9.82 ERA so far in July. Miley has been tagged for 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in his last three home starts, spanning just 13 1/3 IP. Â Jake Arrieta makes his return to Camden and will face a potential of seven players who have a combined .167 batting average against him. Â Arrieta is on 6 days rest and the Cubs are 7-0 in this situation. Â Meanwhile, Chicago is averaging over 6 rpg in 20 games against southpaws and they're on a 6-0 run in their last 6 against lefties. Â I'm backing the Cubs, our Heavy Hitter. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-14-17 | Nationals -130 v. Reds | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Washington Nationals on Friday with Gonzalez over Adleman. Â Not that it's likely needed to buck the Reds, but it certainly doesn't hurt us that they have not been able to see their way at the plate against southpaws this season. Â Cincy heads into Friday having won just 6 of 20 against left-handed starters. Â Gio Gonzalez should have been an all-star, but I'm sure he'd be perfectly happy starting the second half of the season with the same kind of result he had in the first half. Â Gonzalez has been on fire all season, while his counterpart has not. Â Adleman owns an ERA north of 5.00 in his last six starts with the Reds losing five times. Â Washington is 31-14 in night games against righties, averaging 5.56 rpg. Â I'm backing the Nationals, our Heavy Hitter on Friday. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-09-17 | White Sox +115 v. Rockies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I'm backing the Chicago White Sox with Carlos Rodon over Kyle Freeland. Â We have a battle of southpaws and one, Freeland, has hit the wall, at least temporarily. Â The Rockies southpaw has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts. Â He's been tagged for a 7.28 ERA & 1.79 WHIP in his last three starts, also giving up four home runs. Â We also note he's got a 29:15 flyball to groundball ratio in his last two starts, certainly not conducive to a strong start at Coors on Sunday. Â The White Sox should add to the misery, averaging over 5 rpg against left-handers on the season. Â They're tops in MLB in team batting average against lefties and rank third in OPS. Â Carlos Rodon was nasty-good against Oakland in his second start of the season a few days ago, totaling 26 swinging strikes. With hitting and pitching both expected to be on the side of the Sox, we'll side with them, also. Â I'm backing the White Sox our IL DogPound GOW. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-07-17 | Tigers v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
I'm backing the Indians on the runs line on Friday with Carrasco over Zimmerman. Â When the Indians win with Carlos Carrasco on the mound, they generally do so by margin. Â Cleveland is on a 6-0 runs line run when the right-hander toes the rubber, winning by an average margin of 4 rpg. The Indians are on an 8-1 run when Carrasco starts against Detroit, including covering the runs line five of the last seven wins. Â Tigers' righty Jordan Zimmermann has had a rough time in two of three months this season and after a decent run in June, he's been tagged for 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in his last three starts, spanning 16 1/3 IP. Â Zimmermann has a hefty 2.21 HR's per 9 IP ratio in those outings. He's only faced the Tribe a three times over the last few years, but was no match for Cleveland bats. Â Detroit is just 9-20 on the road against right-handed starters, while Cleveland has punished right-handers for 5 rpg. Â I'm backing the Indians on the runs line on Friday. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-06-17 | Braves v. Nationals -158 | 5-2 | Loss | -158 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm laying a rare price with the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez over the Braves and Mike Foltynewicz. The Braves hurler flirted with a no-hitter in his last start, throwing 119 pitches in the process. Â The righthander has walked 11 batters in his last 22 innings of work and I expect the Nats to take advantage tonight. Â Washington crushed Foltynewicz just a few weeks ago, tagging him for 8 earned runs, 11 hits, and 3 home runs in just 3 1/3 IP. I expect a big outing from Gio Gonzalez, who really belongs on the all-star roster, but instead is on the snubbed list. Â The lefty has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his 17 starts this season and he has fanned 25 batters in his last three starts. Â He's sporting a 2.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a .215 BAA on the season and his numbers are even better at home. The Nats should give Gio plenty to work with, averaging 6.03 rpg at home against right-handed starters. Washington enters on a 24-4 run when facing Atlanta at home and they're 4-0 at home when Gonzalez is on the mound against the Braves. Â The Nats are also 5-1 in their last six against pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30. Â Finally, Foltynewicz has a 6.14 ERA & 1.68 WHIP in four starts against the Nats. Â I'm laying the price with the Nationals, our Thursday Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm laying the runs line with the Dodgers with Alex Wood over Zack Godley. Â The Dodgers have reeled off a 9-0 record in Wood's last nine starts, covering the runs line eight times, and winning by an average margin of 5 rpg. And while Arizona is having a fantastic season, they have not been too hot against southpaws, ranked 25th in the league in team batting average against lefties and 27th in OPS. Â They're just 1-5 in their last six road games against southpaws. Â And finally, despite last night's one-run win, the Dodgers are on an 8-1 runs line run at Chavez Ravine. Â I'm backing the Dodgers on the runs line on Wednesday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-04-17 | Reds v. Rockies -150 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
I'm backing the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday with Freeland over Bailey. After a dreadful road trip the Rockies returned home with a win over the Reds last night and we believe they have the "right" opponent to make it two in a row. Â Homer Bailey has been an unmitigated disaster since making his return, allowing 14 earned runs, 17 base runners, and 3 home runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Â Cincy has been outscored 29-6 in losing his two starts. Colorado is averaging over 5 1/2 rpg at home against right-handers, while the Reds have won just 4 of 18 against southpaws. Â Lefty Kyle Freeland has struggled on the road, but he's pitched well in Denver and we expect more of the same tonight. The Reds have won just 5 of their last 27 road games, while Colorado has won 8 of their last 10 home games and own a 33-14 run against Cincy. Â I'm laying the price with the Rockies, our Wipeout release. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-03-17 | Blue Jays +115 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday with Stroman over Tanaka. Toronto hasn't exactly been lighting things up, but we expect a win in the Bronx tonight. Â We might get a little extra motivation with Marcus Stroman after the perception that he's a 2017 all-star snub. Â Stroman has pitched well in five of his last six outings, including his most recent start, slamming the door on the Baltimore Orioles. Â The whiff rate on his slider has improved greatly over last season and his fastball had fantastic sinking movement against the O's. Â Stroman will face a banged-up and struggling Yankee squad that's won just 5 of their last 19 games and the Blue Jays righty owns a 2.91 ERA in 10 starts against them. Masahiro Tanaka has been in better form in his last two outings, but truly struggled for most of his previous nine starts. Â The Jays are on a 4-0 run on the road against teams with a winning record and they have won 8 of Stroman's last 10 starts. Â They're also on a 7-2 run when he faces New York. Â I'm backing the Toronto Blue Jays, our DogPound on Monday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-02-17 | Nationals -126 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing the Washington Nationals on Sunday night with Scherzer over Martinez. Â A battle of two of the top hurlers in the league, however, everything Martinez does, Scherzer does better and we have the much better offense on our side. Â Washington has dropped three straight, but they still rank in the top-5 in most important offensive categories, while the Redbirds are bottom-third in the league in several. Â Martinez has struggled against teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more rpg over the last two seasons. Â His Cards are 3-11 in those outings with the 14 opponents averaging 5 rpg. Â The Nats enter on a 9-2 run when Scherzer pitches on the road against teams with a losing record and we'll back them here. Â I'm backing the Washington Nationals, our Diamond Dominator on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-01-17 | Red Sox -157 v. Blue Jays | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm laying a rare price with the Red Sox with Sale over Liriano on Saturday afternoon. Â Once in a while we'll lay a price in this range, but only if we feel the line is a solid 25 to 30 cents too short. That's the case here. Â We expect Sale to continue his domination of the Blue Jays. Â The southpaw is 6-0 in his last six starts against Toronto, posting a 1.72 ERA & 0.81 WHIP, while striking out 44 batters and walking just 11 in 47 IP. Â Toronto is 5-13 against lefthanders this season, averaging 3.6 rpg, including just 2.3 rpg in home day games against lefties. In fact, the Jays reside near the bottom of the league in several offensive categories. Â Boston bats are averaging 5 rpg against lefthanders and will face an inconsistent southpaw when Francisco Liriano takes the mound. Boston is not only on a 6-0 run when Sale faces Toronto, but they're 6-1 in his last seven starts, overall. We'll start the day with a Weekend Wipeout release on the Boston Red Sox. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-30-17 | Rays -127 v. Orioles | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays with Faria over Tillman. Â Baltimore won two of three at Toronto while scoring a total of only five runs in the three games and they'll likely need a lot more than that with Chris Tillman on the mound. Â Tillman is 1-5 with an 8.39 ERA and has lost his last five decisions plus he has allowed 31 earned runs his last 23 2/3 innings. Â Tillman has an 11.14 ERA in June and he gave up five runs (four earned) on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings in one appearance against Tampa Bay this season. Â Jacob Faria is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and has recorded four quality starts in all of his outings while giving up only six runs. Â Faria gave up three runs against the Orioles on Saturday, but was not the losing pitcher. Â Tampa Bay has been one of the surprise teams in 2017 and only three games out of first in the AL East. Â We'll back the Rays, our Wipeout release on Friday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-29-17 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Angels | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm laying the runs line with the Dodgers when Clayton Kershaw battles JC Ramirez. The Dodgers have won 10 straight Kershaw starts, covering the runs line seven times. Â In fact, they're 10-4 against the runs line in their 14 wins when Kershaw toes the rubber this season. Â The Angels haven't impressed at home against southpaws this season and current Angel players have just 13 hits in their last 97 at-bats against Kershaw for a .134 batting average with 1 home run and 5 RBI. JC Ramirez has been roughed-up in three of his last five home starts. Â He has a 6.75 ERA in those five outings, allowing 7 home runs in 28 IP for a hefty 2.25 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Â We also note that opponents covered the runs line all five times the Angels lost with Ramirez as a starter, losing by 4 runs on two occasions and by 6 runs three times. Â I'm backing the Dodgers, my Runs Line Wipeout on Thursday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-29-17 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -116 | 10-4 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Arizona Diamondbacks with Patrick Corbin over Lance Lynn. Â The Cardinal righty has certainly taken his share of lumps lately. Â Lynn has failed to make it through six innings in his last half-dozen starts and he's allowed nearly 2 HR's per 9 IP this season (worst of his career), including allowing 6 HR's in his last 10 1/3 IP. That's scary news facing the team with MLB's 6th most home field HR's. Arizona will counter with Patrick Corbin who has pitched better at Chase Field than he does away from home. Â He'll face a Cardinal lineup with the league's 26th best OPS against southpaws. Â Meanwhile, the D-backs rank 4th in both OBP & OPS against righties and they're 2nd and 3rd in MLB respectively, with runners on base in the same two categories. The Cardinals are bottom-third in most key offensive categories with runners on base, one of the main reasons they have struggled to a 36-41 record. Â The Cards have lost five straight Lance Lynn road starts, while Arizona is on a 38-13 run at home and have won 7 of Corbin's last 8 home starts. Â I'm backing the Diamondbacks, our Afternoon Annihilator. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-28-17 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
I'm backing the Diamondbacks with Godley over Wainwright. Â Arizona continued its home dominance with a 6-5, 10-inning, come from behind win over the Cardinals to improve to 30-10 at Chase Field. Â The Diamondbacks have won six of their last seven overall and St. Louis has lost 12 of its last 15 road contests. Â Zack Godley has not given up more than three runs in any of his nine starts this season and Arizona has won seven of them. Â Opponents are batting just .134 versus Godley at home and .202 overall. Â St. Louis is 8-18 its last 26 games against right-handed starters. Adam Wainwright has had alternating performances recently allowing nine runs in each of two starts and two runs each in the others. Wainwright has a 9.48 ERA on the road with a .356 opponent batting average and he has a 8.10 ERA overall in June. We'll back the Diamondbacks, our Heavy Hitter. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres -105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
I'm backing the Padres on Tuesday with Chacin over Newcomb. Â San Diego is looking to avenge a four-game sweep by Atlanta in April and the Padres are playing better of last winning three of their last four games and improving to a .500 record at home. Â Jhoulys Chacin loves Petco Park where he is 4-1 with a sparkling 1.72 ERA this season and the Padres have won three of his past five starts overall. Â Chacin hasn't allowed more than three earned runs his last five starts. Â Atlanta is 5-16 its last 21 meetings at San Diego and has Sean Newcomb on the mound tonight. The left-hander has allowed four earned runs in his three starts, but this will be his first start on the road. I'm backing the Padres, our Bailout release. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-22-17 | Cardinals -143 v. Phillies | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
I'm backing the Cardinals with Martinez over Nola on Thursday afternoon. Philadelphia keeps on losing and this time it was 7-6 in 10 innings on Wednesday night for its 13th loss in 14 games. Â Now the Phillies have to face Carlos Martinez, who has won his last two starts while allowing only one run on eight hits in 15 innings, including a shutout against Philly on June 10. Martinez has a 2.86 ERA, which is better than his 6-5 record indicates and 2.09 over his last nine starts. The right-hander has struck out 45 batters his last five outings and the Cardinals have won seven of his last 10 starts. Aaron Nola has lost five of his last six starts, including a loss at St. Louis on June 11. Â Nola has a 6.50 ERA at home. I'm backing the Cardinals, our Mismatch release. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -138 | 16-5 | Loss | -138 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Rockies with Hoffman over Walker on Wednesday. Â Colorado just keeps on rolling with a 4-3 win last night for its sixth in a row and the Rockies improve to 22-13 at home. Arizona dropped to .500 on the road and will face Jeff Hoffman in tonight's matchup. Â Hoffman is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA and has not allowed more than a run in any of his last four starts and Colorado has won his last five starts. Taijuan Walker is making his second start since coming off the the disabled list due to a blister. Â Walker faced the Rockies once this year and gave up three runs (one earned) on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings. Â The Rockies have won 10 of their last 13 against right-handed starters and 21 of their last 28 against NL West teams. Look for Colorado to get its seventh straight win. Â I'm backing the Rockies, our Heavy Hitter. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-21-17 | Indians -158 v. Orioles | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians with Carrasco over Gausman. Â Cleveland blew a lead on Tuesday night, but now they get to face Kevin Gausman, who is 3-6 with a 6.60 ERA and the Orioles have lost his last two starts by a combined 25-5 score. Â Baltimore extended its American League record to 17 games in a row allowing at least five runs. Gausman has been a big contributor as he's allowed 18 earned runs on 33 hits in 21 innings his last four outings. Cleveland has won seven of Carlos Carrasco's last eight starts, including an 8-1 win at Minnesota on Friday when he gave up a run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings. Â Baltimore hitters are batting a combined .200 versus Carrasco and he is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA on the road this season and the Indians have won 21 of Carrasco's last 29 road starts dating to last season. Â The Orioles have lost 10 of their last 13 even after last night's win. Â I'm backing the Indians, my Midweek Mismatch. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-20-17 | Giants v. Braves -107 | 6-3 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm backing the ATL Braves on Tuesday with Teheran over Moore. Â San Francisco is in free fall while Atlanta has won three straight after Monday's 9-0 whitewash of the Giants, who have lost seven in a row and nine of 10. Â The Giants have the second worst record in the Majors and are 12-28 on the road. Â The Giants have lost Matt Moore's last five starts, including 10-9 at Colorado on Thursday when he gave up eight runs on 11 hits in just three innings. Moore is 2-7 with a 6.00 ERA on the season, including 0-4 and 9.24 on the road and the Giants have lost eight of his last nine road starts. Â Julio Teheran's biggest problem earlier in the season was his inability to pitch well at new SunTrust Park, allowing a high flyball/groundball ratio. Â But he's beginning to even things out, keeping the ball low in the strike-zone, and in his last two home starts, he has allowed only one earned run. Â San Francisco has lost seven straight versus right-handed starters and Atlanta has won Teheran's last four starts. Â I'm backing the Atlanta Braves, our Tuesday Knockout. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-19-17 | Indians -151 v. Orioles | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Indians with Kluber over Bundy on Monday. Â Cleveland is fresh off a four-game sweep of Minnesota which improved its road record to 21-14 and put the Indians in first place by 2 1/2 games in the AL Central. Â Cleveland has won five of Corey Kluber's last seven starts and he pitched well against the Dodgers on Wednesday allowing two runs on four hits with 10 strikeouts in seven innings before the bullpen blew the game. Â Kluber faced the Orioles once in 2016 and gave up three runs in seven innings and Cleveland has won 21 of Kluber's last 27 starts overall and seven of his last 10 road starts dating to last season. Â Baltimore managed to win the last two games of the St. Louis series, but the Orioles still have lost eight of their last 11 games. Â Opposing hitters have started to figure out Dylan Bundy, who got off to a great start this season, but the Orioles have lost five of his last seven starts. I'm backing the Indians on Monday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-18-17 | Yankees +101 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
I'm backing the NY Yankees on Sunday with Cessa over Cotton. Â A tough road trip is coming to a close for the Yankees and they're looking to avoid a 4-game sweep in Oakland. Â They have dropped five in a row, overall, but by only a grand total of eight runs. Â Luis Cessa gets the starting nod with the injury to C.C. Sabathia. Â Cessa has been nothing to write home about as a reliever, but he forged a decent 4.01 ERA in nine starts for the Yankees in 2016. Â He'll face an Oakland lineup averaging just 4.2 rpg against right-handers. Â Meanwhile, I expect a bust-out by the Yanks, who may be getting "just what the doctor ordered" in A's starting pitcher Jharel Cotton. Â The right-hander has allowed 10 home runs in six starts, including two in each of his last two starts. Oakland has dropped each of his last five starts. Meanwhile, the Yankees are on a 21-10 run against pitchers with a WHIP higher than 1.30. Â I'm backing the NY Yankees on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-17-17 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Phillies | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday with Godley over Eickhoff. Arizona has won five in a row and eight of its last nine overall and six of its last nine road games, which is a big improvement from earlier in the season away from home. Meanwhile, the Phillies have lost nine of their last 10 and have averaged only 2.5 runs during that time. Â Zack Godley has a 2.44 ERA and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his seven starts this season and the Diamondbacks have won five of them. Jerad Eickhoff is 0-7 with a 5.09 ERA and Philadelphia is 1-8 his last nine starts. Â Eickhoff has a 5.46 ERA at home where opponents are batting .300 against him. Â Arizona batters are 11-for-33 with a 1.209 OPS versus Eickhoff. Â The Phillies are 15-41 their last 56 games against right-handed starters and the Diamondbacks have won the last five meetings at Philadelphia, including a four-game sweep last year. With the line dropping from the opening number, I'm backing the Diamondbacks, our Daytime Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-16-17 | Red Sox v. Astros -108 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Friday with Fiers over Pomeranz. Boston snapped a three-game winning streak with a 1-0 loss at Philadelphia to drop the Red Sox to 16-18 on the road. Â Mike Fiers has allowed just four earned runs his last three starts in 18 1/3 innings and the Astros won all three. Â Fiers has a 3.00 ERA at home compared to 5.40 on the road and Houston has won 15 of his last 21 home starts dating to last season. Â The right-hander might have pitched his best game of the season on Saturday when he gave up a run on two hits in 7 1/3 innings against the Angels. Drew Pomeranz comes off a tough outing against Detroit when he got lit up for six runs (five earned) on eight hits in only 4 1/3 innings. Â The Astros have won six of their last eight against left-handed starters. Also, the Astros are second overall in the majors in runs scored and OPS. I'm backing the Astros, our Heavy Hitter. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-15-17 | Yankees -116 v. A's | 7-8 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm backing the NY Yankees on Thursday with Montgomery over Gray. Â New York has won six of the last seven meetings with Oakland, which has a tough turnaround after playing in Miami on Wednesday, which finished a 1-5 road trip. Â The Athletics lost the two games against the Marlins by a combined score of 19-7. Â Jordan Montgomery has won his last two starts while giving up only two runs on eight hits with 13 strikeouts in 13 innings. Â The Athletics have lost Sonny Gray's last three starts in which he's allowed 15 runs (12 earned) on 22 hits in 17 2/3 innings. Â The Yankees lost its last two games at the Angels, but still have won six of their last eight games. Finally, the Athletics have lost 19 of Gray's last 26 starts. Â We'll back the Yankees, our Bailout Blowout. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-14-17 | Red Sox -126 v. Phillies | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Red Sox on Wednesday with Johnson over Hellickson. Philadelphia lost its sixth straight and second extra-inning game in a row to the Red Sox on Tuesday and now sends the struggling Jeremy Hellickson to the mound. Â Hellickson has given up 19 runs (17 earned) on 28 hits his last 22 1/3 innings and the Phillies have lost three of his last four starts. Hellickson is 3-0 with a 3.08 ERA in day games this year but 2-4 and 6.09 at night. Â Brian Johnson is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA and Boston has won all three of his starts, including a complete-game shutout against Seattle on May 27. The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight against right handed starters and 37 of their last 53 interleague games. Â The Phillies have lost seven interleague games in a row. We'll back the Red Sox our Wednesday Wipeout. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-13-17 | Royals +109 v. Giants | 8-1 | Win | 109 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm backing the KC Royals on Tuesday with Vargas over Blach. Â KC has won three straight Jason Vargas starts and they're 8-4 when the left-hander toes the rubber this season. Â Vargas will face a SFO lineup scoring just 3 rpg in home night games against southpaws. Â I expect Vargas to continue his success, allowing just 2 ER or less in six of his last eight starts. Â Other than Sunday, the Giants have struggled at the plate and they enter this series on a 6-13 slide, including a 1-5 mark in their last six home games. Â KC has been playing a better brand of baseball since May 23 and recently split a four game series with power Houston before winning their most recent series over the Padres. Â Eric Hosmer is on fire in his last three games and Mike Moustakis hit his 17th HR of the season in their last game. Â The Royals have averaged over 6.7 rpg in their last half-dozen games and I expect the offense to back Vargas tonight. Â KC is on an 8-1 run when Vargas faces a team with a losing record and they're on a 6-1 run when he pitches on five days rest. Â Add in their current 3-0 run with Vargas and we have 17-2 situations backing the KC lefty. Â I'm playing the Royals on Tuesday, our Bailout Blowout. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-12-17 | Mariners v. Twins -118 | 14-3 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Minnesota Twins on Monday with Mejia over Gallardo. Â We played this matchup one week ago in Seattle and the Twins did what most teams have done, beat up on Yovani Gallardo. Â We lost when Mike Zunino hit two home runs, including a 2-run, 2-out homer in the bottom of the 9th to steal a walk-off win for the Mariners. Â The toughest part about that one was that Zunino doubled his HR total for the season having hit just two the previous two months. Â But we expect Adalberto Mejia to out-duel Gallardo again and this time we expect Minnesota to land in the win column. Â Gallardo has been a disaster. Â He pitched poorly in last week's meeting and he's allowed 22 earned runs and 41 bases runners (28 hits; 13 walks) in his last four starts, spanning just 17 innings (2.41 WHIP). Â Seattle averages just 3.5 rpg against southpaws, while the Twins average 5.4 rpg at home against right-handers. Â The Mariners enter having won just 7 of their last 23 against left-handers and having lost five straight road games against teams with a losing home record. Â The Twins are on an 11-6 run against teams with a losing record. I'm backing the Twins, our Monday Mismatch. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-11-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -155 | 4-0 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm backing Seattle on Sunday with Paxton over Happ. Â We had the Mariners last night and lost 4-2, despite the fact they out-hit the Blue Jays, 8-4. Three of Toronto's four hits were home runs. I'm going to trust they won't find that kind of success with James Paxton on the mound. Â The Seattle southpaw has allowed just one home run in 48 innings pitched this season. His numbers are strong overall, but especially at SAFECO. Â J.A. Happ goes for the visiting Jays. Â Happ has had problems with his control since returning from an elbow injury, allowing six walks in 9 1/3 IP. He's now lasted just 18 1/3 innings in his last four starts, combined. Â The Jays have won just three of their last 13 against southpaws and they're on a 1-5 slide with Happ on the mound. Seattle enters on a 10-3 run despite last night's loss. Â I'm backing the Mariners, our Heavy Hitter on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-10-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners +108 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing the Mariners on Saturday with Miranda over Stroman. Â Seattle has won 10 of its last 12 after Friday's 4-2 win over the Blue Jays, who dropped to 12-18 on the road while the Mariners improved to 20-11 at Safeco Field. Â Angel Miranda has not given up more than two runs his last five outings and only 17 hits in 31 innings. Â Miranda has an extra days rest after a complete game 7-1 victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday when he struck out nine and walked only one. Â The left-hander is 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA at home and has faced Toronto once this year and allowed a run on three hits in five innings. Seattle hitters have a collective .349 batting average against Marcus Stroman and the Mariners have won eight of the last 11 meetings at home. Â Also, Seattle has won seven of Miranda's last nine home starts dating to last season. Toronto's averaging just 3.7 rpg against southpaws, while the Mariners are averaging about 6 rpg at home against right-handers. I'm backing the Mariners, our Value Beatdown GOW. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-09-17 | Orioles v. Yankees -133 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
I'm backing the Yankees with Montgomery over Bundy on Friday. Â Baltimore is 1-10 its last 11 road games and 10-17 away from home on the season after its 6-1 loss at Washington on Thursday. The Orioles have lost four of Dylan Bundy's last five starts although they haven't given him much run support. Â Bundy has served up seven home run balls his last his last six outings compared to zero his first four starts of the year. Â The right-hander struggled through five innings against the Red Sox on Saturday while throwing 100 pitches. Â Jordan Montgomery pitched six shutout innings at Toronto on Saturday in a 7-0 Yankees victory. Â Montgomery has allowed two earned runs his last 17 innings with 16 strikeouts and one homer. Â New York is 19-9 at home, including 4-1 its last five at Yankee Stadium where it just won a three-game series against Boston. I'm backing the NY Yankees, our Friday Heavy Hitter. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-07-17 | Twins +115 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
I'm backing the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night with Mejia over Gallardo. Â The Mariners have lost all five of Yovani Gallardo's starts this season when pitching on five days rest. They lost those games by nearly 3 rpg and the veteran hurler has a 5.82 ERA & 1.75 WHIP in those outings. Gallardo has been especially bad in his last three starts, averaging over 20 pitches per inning in all three. Â He'll face a Twins' lineup that's 13-3 in their last 16 road games against righties, including 8-1 in road night games where they have averaged over 6 rpg. Adalberto Mejia is turning things around after a tough start to his season. Â Mejia, a left-hander, has allowed just 6 earned runs in his last three starts, posting a 3.00 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Â He's posted his best numbers on the road in 2017 and faces a Seattle lineup averaging just 3.29 rpg at home against southpaws. Â Going back to last season, the Mariners have dropped six straight Gallardo starts with five days between games and they're just 1-5 in their last six home games against the Twins even with last night's win factored in. Â I'm backing the Minnesota Twins, our Knockout on Wednesday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-06-17 | Phillies v. Braves -108 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
I'm backing the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, our Pitching Mismatch. Â The Phillies took advantage of Bartolo Colon's career decline on Monday night, but tonight they get Jaime Garcia, who has allowed just one earned run his last three starts in 21 2/3 innings, including no earned runs on five hits in seven innings on Wednesday. Â Garcia has a 1.88 ERA and .218 opponent batting average in two starts at home this season and in one appearance against Philadelphia, he have gave up two runs on five hits in six innings. Garcia owns a strong groundball to flyball ratio, a definite must in the Braves' new "digs." Â Aaron Nola's ERA is up to 5.06 and the Phillies have lost four of his last five starts. Nola didn't make it past the third inning against the Marlins on Wednesday and he's given up nine runs in nine innings his last two outings. Â The Phillies are 2-12 their last 14 road games against teams with losing records. Â I'm backing the Atlanta Braves, our Pitching Mismatch. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-05-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers -124 | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm backing the L.A. Dodgers on Monday night with Ryu over Gonzalez. Â The Dodgers are back home where they are 21-8 this season and 38-15 dating to last season. Â Also, the Dodgers have won seven of their last eight versus southpaw starters. Â They come off a 3-0 loss at Milwaukee, but Los Angeles has won four of its last five after a loss. Hyun-Jin Ryu had one terrible outing at Coors Field, but otherwise hasn't allowed more than two runs his last six outings. Â Ryu gave up a run on three hits in six innings in a game the Dodgers eventually lost 2-1 at St. Louis on Wednesday after pitching four shutout innings versus the Cardinals in his previous outing. Â Gio Gonzalez had a 1.62 ERA in April, but then 4.37 in May. Â His road ERA is 4.65 this year compared to 1.69 at home and he'll be facing the Dodgers for the first time since last year's NLDS when he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and allowed three runs for the Nationals, who have lost four of Gonzalez's last five starts. I'm backing the Dodgers, our Monday Dominator. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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