Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

Lions/Cardinals 4:25: Offensive firepower with both teams but defensively extremely yielding. Both teams at the bottom of the league in yards and points allowed. Detroit won't have starting safeties Branch and Joseph. "Over' the call. 

Cowboys/Bucs 8:15: Cowboys' offense humming and Prescott should continue to be the regular season passing king against inferior teams. Lamb, Pickens are weapons that the undermanned TB secondary won't be able to contain. And the run game is cooking with Javonte Williams. Cowboys should post the bulk of the score total. But the Cowboys' defense ranks at the bottom of the league in virtually every category. They allow 71% pass completions, not adept at sacking QB (1 sack per game) and last in allowing 3rd down conversions. TB reserve QB Daniels does have good surrounding talent in RB Irving, TE Otton and solid receivers in Egbuka and Godwin. Cowboys on a 10-0 O/U run and on a 17-4 O/U run dating back to last season. "Over" the call. 

Ravens/Cowboys 4:25: Field conditions in Brazil's Maracana Stadium should slow this one down a bit. With extended soccer play on it combined with recent rainstorms, the surface is patchy and loose with visible stitching. Consequently, I projected this 'total' to be around 51. Good value with the "under". 

Vikings/Bucs 4:05: Vikings' defense getting it done. And TB has taken several steps back offensively. The Canales, Coen days did wonders for Mayfield's career, but Grizzard took him back a step and now Zac Robinson is having trouble jump starting the offense. Minnesota 1-12 O/U vs less than .333 opponent the last 4 years. And TB is 0-10 O/U vs the NFC North when O/U is over 42 points. "Under" the call. 

Panthers/Falcons 1:00: In NFL Week 2 Division games, when the home team is a dog of 2 or more points, the home team has gone 4-18 O/U (83%) since 2003 when the O/U line is 43+. We got that scenario here and we'll roll with it. Falcons' Rush clearly no Caleb Williams, and Stefanski is clearly no Ben Johnson. The Panthers' secondary not as bad as they looked last week. "Under" the call. 

Lions/Bills 8:15: 2024 meeting resulted in a 48-42 shootout. Staff and personnel changes since but, the song remains the same. Both offenses equipped with explosive play talent with systems still in check from previous coordinators. Ben Johnson left but leaves behind a legacy of a system that's been duplicated. Bills' Joe Brady, now the head coach, will surely institute the no-huddle after watching New Orleans kick it into gear after falling behind 21-0 only to lose in a controversial decision in OT. This total drove up from 53 but we'll jump on it after watching in Week 1 both offenses percolate but defense leaving much to be desired. "Over" the call. 

Chargers/Texans 8:00: Right now, defenses are significantly ahead of their offenses. Chargers' DC O'Leary, in his first year under Harbaugh, has his men playing at a high level, including the glut of corners on the roster. Texans, on the other hand, remain a physical, stingy unit. Chargers' new offensive coordinator - McDaniel - needs much more time to groom his offense with his complicated motion and new jargon. Projected 36 total. We'll stay "under". 

Knicks/Spurs 8:30: NBA Finals have gone 45-69 O/U since the 2005/06 season. This NBA Finals is 1-3 O/U. We'll stay on that trend with both defenses operating at a high level. Refs are starting to let them bang it out a bit more and we'll look for the free throws to stay in check. "Under" the call. 

MD/Rutgers Noon: Both of these Big 10 bottom feeders are looking to secure a rare pride win. MD is on a 2-0 run after a disastrous season. Rutgers continues to freefall. Both teams are at the bottom of the league in defense and offensively challenged; however, against similar struggling opposition (Penn State, Oregon), they were able to put some points on the board. These teams are a combined 29-19 O/U. We'll look for excessive points today. 

Blazers/Jazz 9:10: Both of these teams are not wired defensively. Jazz are 30th in the league in points allowed and make the most mediocre scoring team put up big numbers. Portland has some consistent double-digit scorers in Audija (when he's on floor), Holiday, 7'1" Clingan. Jazz, on the other hand, are 6th in scoring (118.3 PPG) and should put up plenty of points on their home floor against a Blazers team that allows 118 PPG. This series is 7-1 O/U. And this being the last game for both teams before All-Star break, both defenses have already checked out. "Over" it is. 

Texans/Patriots 3:00: A combination of inclement weather (possible freezing rain), stingy defenses should keep this score lower than the total. NE allows just 17.9 PPG whereas the Texans allow an even stingier 16.7 PPG. Each offense has its weakness. Patriots' offensive line has given up nearly 3 sacks per game. Houston defense, so good, they don't need assistance of secondary blitzes. There defensive front, led by edge rushers Anderson and Hunter, average 2.8 sacks per game (9th) and were especially dominant late in the season, including in WC round terrorizing Rodgers. Patriots' defense sacks the QB in a different way utilizing blitz techniques yet highly effective. And Houston's offense looked inept at times last week and marked with penalties and inconsistency throughout the year. Moreover, leading receiver Nico Collins (concussion) is out. We'll stay "under" here. 

Dolphins/Patriots 4:25: Patriots still looking to lock up conference's top seed. Vrabel should let his starters play. Offense in a nice rhythm with Maye and should play target practice against a Dolphins' defense that allows a whopping 71% completions. On the flip side, Patriots do have a number of starters who are out. Dolphins' offense has some big play potential behind Ewers and also can give up big plays against an opportunistic Patriots' defense. These teams have combined for 7-1 O/U in their last 4 games. Dolphins 13-5 O/U as a dog of more than 5 points. 

Seahawks/49ers 8:00: 49ers' offense unstoppable lately but weather and field conditions could be the best defense against them. A steady rain has and will slow the grass field down tonight. Seattle has a staunch defensive front that can limit run game and keep 49ers from dictating tempo. Seattle offense weakened with left tackle (Cross) out and his backup questionable. SF DC Saleh has done a masterful job with the injury ravaged defense. And Darnold is not at his best in big games with stakes highest (for division title). We'll look for the weather conditions to play a rare role in keeping this one "under". 

Eagles/Bills 4:25: Inclement weather expected in Buffalo. Not to worry. These teams rely on ground and pound. And the run stop unit of Buffalo leaves much to be desired. On the other hand, Bills RB Cook is a mudder. The AFC's leading rusher has done a lot of damage in bad weather this season. McDermott is 9-1 O/U off an away game vs an opponent off a SU away win. We'll go "over". 

Old Dominion/USF 5:00: USF sported the #1 total offense in the FBS. Unfortunately, the HC Golesh - fled to Auburn. And the engine that runs it - QB Byrum Brown - opted out. His backup - Gaston Moore- in garbage time - threw for 54 yards. Old Dominion has a Top 20 scoring defense and should be prepared - with a majority of their coaches and key players sticking around. On the other hand, USF defense not the most reliable and penalized frequently; however, Monarchs won't have their starting QB Colton Joseph either. He was explosive with his feet more than through the air. His backup Henicle - didn't see a whole lot of action either and should rely on RB Jones (7.6 YPC). Bulls' run-stop-unit not all that bad - allowing 3.6 YPC. Old Dom went - 0-5 O/U down the stretch. USF 0-2 in last 2 games. We'll stay "Under" here. 

Ravens/Bengals 1:00: Both teams on the verge of dropping out of playoff race. Defenses have been horrible. Bengals won't have Higgins (concussion) but it won't matter. Burrow will light up a secondary with Chase and whomever is available to run a route. Ravens have had trouble rushing the passer (30th in league) and spells danger against one of the top QBs in the league. On the other hand, Cincinnati hasn't stopped anybody this season (last in NFL in most categories). Revenge minded Ravens should be able to get their offense rolling. Bengals are 13-4 O/U in division home games when coming off an away game. "Over" it is. 

Commanders/Giants 1:00: Both defenses rank in the bottom of the league in most categories. Commanders' defense is old, difficulty rushing the passer and a secondary that gets torched routinely. NYG offense, not an offensive juggernaut by any standard, but had an extra prep week, Dart is healthy and a near full arsenal of skill players. Washington won't have Daniels, but Mariota is overdue to get in a good, FULL game. He won't have Ertz (IR), but Samuel, McLaurin and Rodriguez, and even career underachieving vertical threat - Burks, should burn a routinely toasted secondary. Washinton HC Quinn 7-1 O/U vs opponent with revenge. Despite the snowy/rainy weather, we'll look for some explosives and chaotic turnovers to put this one "over". 

Dallas/Detroit 8:15: These teams are a combined 15-9 O/U on the year. This game shouldn't be as one sided as last year; after all, Dallas now has an explosive offense that's rolling on all cylinders. And Detroit's secondary is banged up and vulnerable. On the other hand, Dallas secondary will be tested against a Detroit offense that rolls on this field. Detroit 8-0 O/U after a Thursday game. And they're 12-1 O/U as non-division conference home favorite vs less than .1000 opponent. And Campbell is 20-7 O/U vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. "Over" the call. 

Panthers/49ers 8:15: Panthers are 12-0 O/U as dogs o less than 9 points vs NFC West. Bryce Young coming off a career day passing last week at Atlanta. SF defense is reeling with injuries across the board. They can't rush the passer (32nd in league) and their backend is young and getting exposed. On the other hand, Brock Purdy is back in action with a near full offensive arsenal. Over the call. 

Colts/Steelers 1:00: Steelers' offense putting up points but their defense gives back way too much. Their secondary lost S Elliot last week and they were forced to acquire Dugger from NE. Pass defense has been troublesome for the Steelers and it won't get any easier today. Colts' QB Jones is having a banner year. And MVP favorite - RB Jonathon Taylor has been virtually unstoppable behind great blocking. Both offenses should be able reach the end zone repeatedly today. 

Baltimore/Miami 8:15: Lamar Jackson's return should ignite the offense. Last week, Huntley helped rev it up. RB Henry has helped significantly. The Ravens lead the league in YPC at 5.3. And Miami has not been good at stopping the run. Moreover, their secondary is getting even thinner with C Storm Duck placed on IR. On the other hand, Ravens are getting pieces back to their defense. But we won't dismiss the Miami offense which percolated against a good defense against Atlanta last week. Miami 12-2 O/U as dogs of more than 5 points. Baltimore 8-0 O/U vs less than .333 opponent. And the Ravens are 7-1 O/U on Thursday. "Over" the call. 

Packers/Steelers 8:20: Both defenses have their weaknesses and a pair of pretty good quarterbacks should find ways to exploit them tonight. Pittsburgh's Rodgers has a healthy receiving corps with Metcalf, Austin, TE Smith and RB Warren. GB defense is dead last in the NFL in completion percentage allowed. On the other hand, Jordan Love will finally have his vertical threat - Christian Watson - back in the fray to join a pretty talented receiving corps and versatile RB Jacobs. Last Thursday, Steelers' defense allowed the worst run offense in the league to run roughshod on them. And well traveled Flacco, who was on Cincinnati for a week, lit the secondary up like a torch. Steelers have the 31st pass defense in the league. We'll look for this one to go "over". 

Steelers/Bengals 8:15: Going against the grain here. Both offenses in the bottom of the league in yards production. Steelers are mid-level in point production where Bengals are at the bottom. But Joe Flacco, who has seen a lot of the Steelers' defense in his time - from years on Ravens and, most recently, Browns, has accumulated 25 TD passes to 12 INTs vs Tomlin's team going 11-11 as a starter. I understand that the Bengals don't have a run game (32nd) and an offensive line that still can't protect a QB; however, Flacco's quick release and world class receivers - Chase, Higgins, gives them hope for explosive plays against the blitz happy Steelers. On the other hand, Bengals' defense hasn't stopped anybody and the Steelers' offense showing rhythm in recent weeks. Thought this 'total" would be around 46 so we get a few points of value. We'll go "over" here. 

Jets/Dolphins 7:15: Both of these defenses rank in the bottom tier of the league. Dolphins' secondary decimated with injuries and they're ranked in the bottom of the league vs the pass; moreover, their run-stop-unit allows a generous 4.5 YPC on 145 YPG. Justin Fields makes his return tonight. I project a heavy dose of QB Power in addition to RBs Hall & Allen gashing areas of Miami's front. On the other hand, Miami showed some rhythm offensively last week and should keep it rolling tonight vs the 28th scoring defense in the league. "Over" it is. 

Seahawks/Cardinals 8:15: Both of these teams have defenses that are stingy giving up points. Seattle sports #2 scoring defense at 15.7 PPG while Arizona at #5 allows just 17 PPG. On a short week, we'll look for the defenses to continue to play well. And even though Gannon has key injuries in secondary, him and his staff have been successful in limiting points. Cardinals 0-10-1 O/U as a dog of less than 9 points vs a team above .500. Seattle's defensive minded HC McDonald has his men playing at a high level. They were successful in limiting offensive production against Arizona last season in a 2-0 sweep. This season, Arizona offense stuck in neutral, and it won't help that James Conner is out for the season. We'll stay "under". 

Texans/Jaguars 1:00: Including last season, Texans are 6-13 O/U. They sport the 32nd offense in the league. Ryans fired OC Slowik after last season and new OC Nick Caley - a Sean McVay disciple, is having trouble getting Stroud and company in rhythm. On the other hand, Jaguars' QB Lawrence has a 39 QBR in the last 8 starts vs the Texans. We'll stay "Under".

Dolphins/Bills 8:15: Both teams are experiencing some defensive issues. Buffalo can't stop the run (6.8 ypc) and their best defensive lineman - Ed Oliver - is out. Miami can't stop the pass, allowing a generous 79% completions! They have 2 starters listed as out. Bills control the #2 scoring offense and should continue to light up the scoreboard. Dolphins have their backs against the wall and should be able to get the ground game going with Achane (4.7 YPC) to open up the passing lanes for Waddle and Hill. This series has gone "over" in 4 straight at Buffalo. Dolphins are 12-2 O/U as a dog of more than 5 points. Buffalo is 8-0 O/U following the Jets. "Over" easy. 

TCU/UNC 8:00: When we think of Belichick, defense comes to mind. He and his son (Steve) will see to it to have an attention to detail plan on slowing down the TCU offense. On the other hand, OC Freddie Kitchens won't exactly have "guns a blazing". His offenses in the NFL were in the bottom tier of the NFL and I don't see a significant change here with many new faces. TCU's defense was 25th in the nation in "yards per play" last season and have a strong secondary. We'll stay "under". 

Steelers/Panthers 7:00:   

Dolphins/Bears 1:00: Early indication on the scrimmage between these teams gives the edge to the Bears' defense, which dominated. And Hill (oblique) will not play while Tua, who struggled (3 INTs) vs the Bears' defense, will see limited, if at all, action. On the other hand, Ben Johnson indicated that he won't play his starters; consequently, 18 Bears' players, including Caleb Williams and other key starters won't see action. Williams is in the early stages of development with the Ben Johnson offense, leaving reserve Tyson Bagent at the controls Sunday. Dolphins' thinning defense far from polished but limited the Bears in big plays during the scrimmage. Despite the lack of defensive starters for Miami, we'll look for them to limit a Bears' offense loaded that's loaded with reserves. "Under" the call. 

Knicks/Pacers 8:00: Pacers should pick up the pace at home and do what they do best: force turnovers into transition buckets. It will be hard for the slower and some hobbling - Karl Anthony-Towns (knee) to slow them down on this floor. Haliburton should turn up his game several notches to spur the offensive output. Knicks should get their share of points; after all, Brunson has been unstoppable, underutilized Anunoby should continue to put up points with Big KAT. Over the call. 

Cincinnati/Iowa State 12:30: Both teams are well disciplined defensively and this should be a physical battle on this neutral floor. Bearcats are 25th nationally in scoring defense yet struggle to put up points vs good defensive teams. Iowa State is a good defensive team that can choke you out on a good day. The Cyclones are well rested, getting the bye and should be up for the task. Cincinnati sports an 11-21 O/U mark on the season. Iowa State is 13-18 O/U on the year. These teams combined for 151 points back on February 15th win for Iowa State. Look for thorough defensive adjustments by coaches to keep this one "Under". 

Chiefs/Eagles 6:30: Since that high scoring 2022 Super Bowl, these defenses have improved dramatically. Eagles hired DC Vic Fangio to fix a 2023 pass defense dead last in the NFL. All Fangio did was turn it into the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, including a top tier pass defense. KC explosive plays will be hard to come by. KC offense in 2022 was #1 in the NFL. It's mid level this season. On the other hand, KC's defense was ranked 16th the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl. KC DC Spagnuolo tweaked it to the #4 scoring defense in the NFL this season. In Spagnuolo we trust. He'll find a way to keep Barkley from breaking those explosive runs in the secondary. Fortunately, KC defensive backs are fundamentally sound in tackling. We'll look for this one to stay "under". 

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Bengals/Steelers 8:00: Most likely a shootout. Bengals have been outscoring three of their last four opponents. Backup quarterbacks they faced in three of the last four. The other - Nix - is a rookie. Steelers' offense no juggernaut but Wilson and a healthy receiving corps (Pickett is back) should see the end zone vs the injury ravaged Bengals' defense that hasn't gotten its footing all year. Last time they played - Dec 1st - Wilson dropped 414 yards on them with 3 TD passes in a 44-38 win. Burrow has been an absolute machine for most of the season and I don't see the Steelers stopping him or his fully loaded receiving corps. "Over" the call. 

Lions/49ers 8:15: This series has gone 4-0 O/U including that January 28th 34-31 Detroit debacle in Santa Clara. Projected about 52 for this 'total'. We get a few points of value with the "over".  Detroit offense at near full strength with RB Montgomery out. The strong Lions' offensive line can surely win the battle of the LOS and unleash Gibbs for a bulk of the carries. Goff is loaded with all receivers in check against a vulnerable SF secondary with CB Ward out. Dolphins gutted the 49ers with speedster Achane (120 yards rush, including 50 yard TD). On the other hand, Detroit's defense is decimated with lots of its top players from early in the year on the IR. Shanahan still has Kittle, Samuel and Jennings for Purdy to do damage with. We'll look for explosive plays and points tonight. . 

Dolphins/Browns 4:05: Both teams are experiencing offensive woes. Dolphins won't have Tua (hip) and that's always a problem for the Dolphins. Tyler Huntley (1 TD/I INT) will attempt to rev up the offensive machine. He likely won't have Waddle (knee). Tua was in great rhythm with newfound go-to-guy TE Jonnu Smith - who has as many TD catches (6) as Tyreek Hill (wrist). Defensively, Browns pretty healthy and once again should keep them in the game. On the other hand, Browns' offense not in good hands with Dorian Thompson Robinson (0 TD/5 INT). And he won't have TE Njoku or Tillman. We'll look for good punting and low offensive output today. "Under" the call. 

Jaguars/Raiders 4:25: Both of these defenses leave much to be desired. They each allow 27 PPG. And Raiders' Aiden O'Connell gives us value with the "over". He can effectively throw the ball downfield and utilize TE matchup nightmare - Brock Bowers much better than Ridder was able to. Jaguars struggle to rush the passer (30th in sacks) which should allow more downfield plays. On the other hand, interception prone Mac Jones offers big play potential with Brian Thomas Jr.. Fortunately for Mac Jones, he won't have to worry about edge disrupter - Maxx Crosby (out) leading to a bit more time to make a downfield read. He's also got a run game to lean on with Bigsby and Etienne. "Over" the call. 

Browns/Bengals 1:00: Both defenses should be on their heels today. Bengals' defense is riddled with injuries and should have trouble controlling the L.O.S. against a better Browns' offensive line. Browns' QB Thompson-Robinson has the mobility to buy time and talented receiving corps to go to. On the other hand, Bengals' machinelike QB Burrow should continue to put up big numbers with Chase and company. Bengals are 11-3 O/U at home vs their division off an away game. Regardless of the inclement weather, "Over" it is. 

Clemson/Texas 4:00: Projected a 48 total here so a few points of value exist. Texas, with the #1 defense in yards per play (4) and #2 scoring defense (12.5 PPG), have gone "under" in 8 of the last 9 games. Clemson, which is really struggling to run the football, has gone "under" in 8 of its 12 games. Both defenses solid in not allowing explosive plays (20 yards +). We'll look for this one to stay "under". 

Bengals/Cowboys 8:15: Defensively, both of these teams can't stop anyone. Injuries have virtually ruined the Bengals' defense. And more bad news on the way with their top LB Logan Wilson out. They have reserves loaded at all three levels. Cowboys' offense surely not a juggernaut. No run game but Cooper Rush is efficient in his passing and the Bengals' defense can't sack the QB (31st in league). Any NFL QB can pick and choose in a virtual 7 on 7 drill and Rush should be able to locate Lamb often. Cowboys' defense is getting healthier; however, they're not going to stop the Joe Burrow machine from connecting to healthy Chase, Higgins, TE Gesicki, RB Brown or whoever he chooses. I thought this "total" was going to be set at 52 and we'll roll with the "over"

Bills/Rams 4:25: Projected a 50 point total and lines makers came in accurate. Bills have scored 30 or more points in six straight games. Rams' defense has its moments but remains inconsistent under DC Shula. Bills' offensive line is similar in strength to Philadelphia's. And a few weeks back, the Eagles ran roughshod (314 yards) over the Rams. Bills' offense every bit as potent. Defensively, Bills' defense could yield some points here. Stafford has Nacua and Kupp back in the fray, and he could have his old go-to big target TE Tyler Higbee (off IR) make a cameo. And RB Kyren Williams could have a solid game; after all, Bills' defense allows a generous 4.9 YPC (30th). McVay 13-1 O/U as a dog vs an opponent off a double digit SU win. "Over" the call. 

Georgia/Texas 4:00: These teams have arguably the best defensive minds in college football. Kirby Smart is brilliant in breaking down film and implementing schemes - as he did in the first matchup to frustrate - Ewers and limit the run game. On the other hand, Texas' DC Kwiatkowski has an immense blend of talent that's molded into a well disciplined wrecking machine that's allowed just 11.7 PPG. Texas is 1-7 O/U in SEC games. Georgia doesn't have the offensive firepower from the Bowers/McConkey years. And RB Etienne is doubtful as of now. "Under" the call. 

Packers/Lions 8:15: Projected this total to be at 52 and lines-makers did not disappoint. Injuries have mounted to key defensive personnel on both sides. GB second level depth hurting without a few linebackers out including Cooper (31 solo/2 sacks). The Detroit run game is potent with Gibbs and Montgomery behind the bruising Lions' OL. And QB Goff is machinelike at home. GB C Alexander (knee) is out and he's one of their top defenders. On the other hand, Detroit defense is decimated with injuries with three key linemen (Reader, Paschal and Onwuzurike) out. LaFleur is quite good at exploiting weaknesses. RB Jacobs should have another big game. He rushed for 95 yards in the first meeting November 3rd. And QB Love has been protected well this season (2nd in the NFL). He has speedsters Watson and Reed available along with go-to-guy TE Kraft. Detroit HC Campbell is 17-4 O/U vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. LaFleur is 9-2 O/U as a conference dog of more than 2 points. "Over" the call. 

Giants/Cowboys 4:30: Backup QBs, bottom tier run games, shaky offensive lines, and a division game add up to a low scoring affair here. "Under" the call. 

Ravens/Chargers 8:15: Somewhat surprised this 'total' is set so high. Was projecting 46-48 range. The last four games in this series averaged 35.5 with a range of 30 to 40. And the Harbaugh brothers are always about run game and defense. John Harbaugh sports a 5-14 O/U mark as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. "Under" the call. 

Lions/Texans 8:20: Both defenses seem vulnerable here. Houston, which blitzes 33.4% of the time (5th most in NFL), will have to face the wrath of top tier QB Goff, who is at the top of the list in defeating blitzes. And he has the explosive weaponry to connect to. On the other hand, Houston is overdue to get back on track after struggling at New York on Halloween. Stroud could have Rico Collins back today. He's had some time to work with Woods, Metchie and Tank Dell, TE Shultz and versatile RB Mixon. Detroit, although adding Za'Darius Smith to the edge, hasn't had that fierce pass rush they did earlier in the year with Hutchinson (IR). I don't think Stroud will be rattled this week like he was under the pressure of the NY Sack Exchange II last week. Detroit's had some secondary issues for Branch can't cover the whole field. We'll go "over" here. 

Cowboys/Falcons 1:00: Falcons have an embarrassment of riches for Kirk Cousins to go to. Pitts, London, Mooney and throw in RB Robinson will be hard to be contained by a depleted Cowboys' defense that's given up 28.3 PPG. And with a banged up secondary, no Parsons (out) or Lawrence (IR) to generate any kind of consistent rush, Atlanta should continue to get in the end zone. On the other hand, Atlanta's defense ranks dead last in sacking the QB and who better than garbage time player of the decade - Dak Prescott to sit back and find CeeDee Lamb and company. We'll go "over". 

Ravens/Bucs 8:15: Both of these offenses are percolating to a high degree. Baltimore is in the top tier offensively across the board and scores 29.5 PPG. Derrick Henry already has 704 rushing yards and 8 TDs. He's clearly fueling Lamar Jackson's play action game with his multitude of weapons. TB defense leaves much to be desired. They're 28th vs the pass and allow a generous 23.5 PPG. Ravens' defense, however, is not what it was a year ago under former DC McDonald (Seattle HC). Baltimore pass defense ranks 31st allowing 276 YPG! Mayfield is having a great year. Godwin is healthy and leading the team in catches, Evans (hamstring) should be good to go. And the run game with Bucky Irving (5.4 YPC) is a great complement to the Bucs' pass game. This "total" set a few points lower than I projected. We'll go "over". 

Georgia State/Marshall 7:00: Both of these defenses are yielding in areas where they should be exploited. GSU will have its hands full with Marshall's RB A.J. Turner (9.6 YPC / 540 rush yards). And GST QB Veilleux can sling it. He'll throw interceptions but has some weapons with big play capability. "Over" the call. 

Lions/Cowboys 4:25: Both defenses are giving up explosive plays and poor on back end coverage. Dallas is in the bottom tier defensively in pass yards per play. That doesn't bode well vs an explosive well rounded Detroit offense. And with Parsons (ankle) and LB Kendricks (calf) out, the Cowboys' defense should continue to struggle to put pressure on the QB. Dallas' offense, sports the worst run offense in the NFL and will surely air it out repeatedly against a shaky Detroit secondary. We'll look for a higher scoring game. 

Commanders/Ravens 1:00: Both offenses are cooking. Each are in the top tier in terms of yardage and points scored. On the other hand, each defense has its weakness that can be exploited today. Washington defense in the bottom tier of the NFL in yards per rush allowed. Ravens control one of the top ground games in the NFL behind Jackson and Derrick Henry. Ravens' defense, however, has been terrible in the back end. Joe Burrow lit it up last week. Ravens' pass defense ranks in the bottom tier in pass yards allowed and explosive plays allowed. QB Daniels has been dynamic in finding his targets and scrambling effectively. We'll go "over". 

49ers/Seahawks 8:15: Both defenses underachieving. Seattle's defense, under former Ravens' DC McDonald, locked down its first three opponents, albeit NE and Denver - not exactly juggernauts, and Miami was without Tua for the first time of the season. Since then, Detroit went perfect on them with Goff (18 for 18) and Giants' rookie RB Tracy ran roughshod on them. Not all dire as the media points out. Sure, Woolen and Nwosu - two key cogs, are out but remember, Seahawks have been stockpiling quality defensive depth for a few years now. They have the athletes and the defensive discipline under McDonald and DC Durde to make the adjustments. SF offense misses McCaffrey. Last year, SF converted red zone TD opportunities 68% of the time; this season, just 41% (29th in NFL). Other than against Detroit, the Seahawks have been solid in limiting explosive plays. Without SF's McCaffrey, we'll look for FG's (Moody out) in red zone. As for SF defense, DC Sorensen under fire for lack of in game adjustments. Arizona tweaked their zone read in the second half to ignite RB Conner, and RB Murray piled up yards in the second half. Seattle, throws a league high 67.4% of the time, actually wants to run the football with Walker and Charbonnet; after all, they're averaging 5 YPC. SF defense, which is the least penalized defense in the NFL, should be well prepared to secure gaps. Most of their quality defensive personnel healthy, and Bosa will surely be unleashed on long yardage against Geno Smith - who's been sacked 3.6 x per game. Total, a few points too high. We'll stay "under". 

Saints/Chiefs 8:15: Both of these defenses have been playing some good football. Saints have a ball hawking secondary and solid vs the run. They've yielded yardage but very strong in the red zone and allowed just 17.8 PPG. KC's defense is one of the reasons why they're undefeated. Spagnuolo, arguably the best DC in the NFL, has his unit playing great, especially when it needs to. The Chiefs' defense has held opponents to 18 PPG. Tonight, they face the #1 scoring offense in the NFL; however, most of those points came in the first two games. With Taysom Hill (ribs) out and two of their starting offensive linemen out, you can bet Spagnuolo will align on field menace Chris Jones over the weakest lineman, or most likely rotating in the 1 and 3 Technique tonight. Most likely he should wreak havoc and be a big part of halting the run game and getting Derek Carr comfortable in the pocket. KC's offense, on the other hand, limited too without Rice. There is Worthy, Kelce and RB Hunt was a solid pick up too. But Andy Reid most likely will keep it conservative vs the ball hawking secondary of New Orleans. Limited explosive plays should field an "under" here. 

Jets/Vikings 9:30: This one is in London on the sport turf field of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Rain in the forecast and no field protection from the elements. Total driven down to a reachable level. Vikings' defense has been strong under DC Flores. He likes to blitz 41% of the time (2nd only to Denver) and in the process yields more passing yards than any other team. Teams haven't been able to cash in on explosive plays. Look for seasoned veteran Aaron Rodgers to dissect man coverage with Wilson, Lazard and Mike Williams - all with top end speed. And TE Conklin has been a reliable move-the-chain target, and Breece Hall a solid check down. On the other hand, brilliant offensive mind of Kevin O'Connell has his guy in QB Darnold who is distributing the ball well to his talented receiving corps, including uncoverable Justin Jefferson. Jets 12-1 O/U as a road dog of less than 7 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. "Over" the call. 

Commanders/Cardinals 4:05: These two teams not the usual slothing offenses of yesteryear. Former Arizona HC Kingsbury doing a great job mentoring #! pick Jayden Daniels. He finally got a guy who can utilize the weaponry - McLaurin, Noah Brown, McCaffrey, and resurrecting career of former Pro Bowl TE Zach Ertz. Daniels completing an astonishing 80% of his passes without an interception. Arizona defense - middle of the road at best. And the big news is they got a run game in Brian Robinson Jr. Another testament to a solid offensive line. On the other hand, Arizona OC Petzing doing a decent job fueling the #4 scoring offense. Murray has found his range with #1 pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. And, like Washington, Arizona sound in running the rock - Conner. Both defenses struggling in sacking the QB and stopping the run. These teams are a combined 4-2 O/U on the season and we'll stay on the "over" here. 

Chargers/Steelers 1:00: Harbaugh and Tomlin very similar in their coaching style. They want to pound the football, play great defense, and limit or eliminate mistakes (turnovers). Herbert (ankle) should go but should be limited to play-action with the strong run game (Dobbins). Stick a capable backup. Steelers' Fields will do what he did first two games - quick passes, check downs, run without forcing anything. Old school three yards and a cloud of dust low scoring game expected. 

Patriots/Commanders 8:00: Both defenses will most likely be respectable under defensive minded coaches Mayo and Quinn. However, as the game progresses, young defensive players filter the field. Secondary issues always play a part in breakdowns in the final week. We'll look for that to materialize on both teams. "Over" the call. 

SF/LV 10:00: SF switched game plans late by electing to play starters; consequently, the line flipped substantially from Raiders at -2' to +9. How long Shanahan plays his starters is not known; however, with this being final game of the pre-season and the season starting in less than two weeks, good chance, we'll see them for only an extended quarter at best; some skill personnel less than that. And SF skill personnel not that deep to begin with as the Aiyuk deal is still in negotiation. Raiders' defense is the strength of the team and depth is decent. Their offense is the problem. Points have been limited in pre-season with Minshew (starter) and O'Connell battling it out at the helm. Bradley and interception king Peterman should struggle mightily against a well-structured defense of SF. We'll stay "under".

Bears/Chiefs 8:20: Overreaction by sportsbooks dropping this total down to 32. Remember, KC backups Oladokun and Book are well schooled and completed roughly 76% of their passes, albeit Book checked down quite a bit for just 5 YPC. Chiefs' HC Reid always a stickler for developing second and third tier players. They should be able to get in the end zone late vs a Bears' defense that is top heavy with starters but light on the back end. On the other hand, Bears' Eberflus continues to be impressive in pre-season at 7-2 SU. Bears have now outscored teams 71-26 this pre-season. Realize that Caleb Williams won't play but Baget and Rypien connecting on healthy 73.7% and 71.4% completions, respectively. We're going "over". 

Chargers/Seahawks 7:05: Again, we're playing the percentages on the "under" here. In Week 1, offenses are struggling and that's holding true this week. And both head coaches are sticklers for strong defensive play. Total adjusted down but we're not flinching. "Under' the call. 

Commanders/Jets Noon: Two teams set defensively. Commanders should be much improved on that side of the ball under the new regime. Meanwhile, Jets still need to develop a rhythmic offense. And one or two drives with Rodgers won't be enough to send this one over the low set 'total'. "Under" the call. 

Magic/Cavs 1:00: Defensive intensity picking up in playoffs. In addition, two defensive minded coaches who know each other well. Both teams are solid defensively. However, I'm not buying into the low total. Despite the defensive discipline, these teams managed to go "over" in 4 of the last 6 clashes, including 2-0 O/U in the last 2 in Cleveland. Based on the numbers, I was projecting a total of around 215 and this one comes in under 208. Both offenses are efficient and execute well. Orlando's Suggs, Banchero and Wagner can put up numbers. Cleveland's backcourt duo of Garland and Mitchell are very good at penetrating, scoring and kicking out to open perimeter shooters. "Over" the call. 

Warriors/Kings 10:00: Both teams are well disciplined defensively. Both of these teams picked up defensive intensity down the stretch of the regular season. Both of these teams allowed approximately 115 PPG during the season. Over the last 10 games, Warriors allowed an average of 108 PPG while Kings yielded 104 PPG. This playoff series last year went "under" in 4 of 6. And both games in Sacramento combined to average 220. With a play on or go home mentality, "Under" is the smart call here. 

Indiana/MD 2:00: Both of these teams struggle offensively - 12th and 13th in Big Ten offensive production. MD clunks from beyond the arc at 28.2%. Indiana has trouble scoring on the road. Terps do bring defensive intensity and that should be a constant here. Terps are 0-8 O/U at home vs teams with losing records on the road. And 5 of the last 6 in this series has gone "under". We'll stay "under" here. 

Oklahoma/Iowa State 8:00: This is the second game in this season series. Oklahoma took the first one 71-63 in Norman. Iowa State tough to beat at home where they're undefeated this season. Otzelberger's defense allows a stingy 63 PPG. The Cyclones pack the paint often in a man to zone switch at any given instant. Teams that can kick out and hit threes have moderate success. Oklahoma is not a great 3-point shooting team at a 34% clip. On the other hand, Porter Moser is another defensive minded coach who will have his boys schooled to bring optimum intensity. And they guard the perimeter well at 29% - 10th nationally. The last 3 played at Iowa State in this series combined for 122, 129 and 111, respectively. We'll look for both teams to ratchet up the defensive intensity again to stay "under"

Warriors/Jazz 9:10: Both of these teams are coming off losses last night. Utah defense was torched from the perimeter as the LeBron-less Lakers sank 14 of 31 from the perimeter at a 45.2% clip. Now they face the NBA's all-time perimeter scorer who has sunk at least 6 trey bombs in 8 of his last 11 games. And usually before All-Star break teams will dismiss defensive prep - lots of them already checked out for break. Going unrested, I see that magnified tonight. We'll grab the "over"

Lions/Cowboys 8:15: Cowboys have been offensively prolific at home this season posting 30 or more points in all 7 of their games in Arlington. Detroit's defense has been vulnerable on the road. Throw out the dominant 6 points they allowed at Tampa Bay October 15th, and they've allowed 28 PPG. The Lions' defense also is in the bottom tier in allowing explosive plays. Prescott sports a 20:2 TD:INT ratio at home on 74% completions. Cee Dee Lamb has been virtually unstoppable while Cooks adds to the fire. And TE Ferguson is that go-to 3rd down guy. On the other hand, the Lions sport the NFL's 3rd ranked offense and close with 27.5 PPG. Cowboys show vulnerability to the run lately and Parsons has been neutralized over his last 3 games. Cowboys are 7-0 O/U as a non-division home favorite of less than 6 points when the O/U is set below 56 points. We'll go "over" here. 

Ole Miss/Penn State Noon: Both of these teams surprisingly near full strength with limited opt outs. Penn State has a handful of 2024 future NFL draft picks questionable at this time. They'll either see limited time or not play. Nevertheless, the Lions' sport a deep defensive unit that is #1 in yards allowed (223 per game), #1 in sacks (4.1 per game), #3 in scoring (11.4 PPG). When Ole Miss played physical defenses as such, they were stalled out. Alabama limited them to 10 points and Georgia held them to 17. On the other hand, Penn State offense no juggernaut. Penn State OC Yurcich fired after Michigan game. Fortunately, Penn State relied on a strong run game and dominant defense in final two games. QB Drew Allar didn't play well against his two biggest foes - OSU and Michigan. And the receivers could not get separation. Ole Miss' defense respectable vs the run (3.9 YPC), have a ball hawking secondary, and allowed a respectable 22.3 PPG in the strong SEC. This early game we'll look to stay "under". 

Texas State/Rice 5:30: Should be an entertaining game. Two offenses that should flourish here. Texas State has a well-balanced offense under offensive minded HC Kinne. Kinne has Auburn transfer T.J. Finley directing a potent offense scoring 36 PPG. The 10th rank offense in the nation should be able to work a mediocre rice defense that doesn't rush the passer very well; consequently, back end is stressed throughout games. What Texas State doesn't have is a defense. They're in the bottom tier of the NCAA. They give up many an explosive play. Rice doesn't have much of a run game but that could change today vs the yielding Bobcats' run-stop-unit. QB Padgett showed he can run Bloomgren's offense after J.T. Daniels was forced to retire after multiple concussions. We'll go "over" here. 

Saints/Rams 8:15: Both of these teams' coaching staffs have emphasized closing in the red zone; particularly, New Orleans. Saints have scored TDs in 9 of its last 10 trips to the red zone. Rams' defense has been yielding this year and vulnerable in spots. And Derek Carr has main weapon Olave back for this one. On the other hand, Rams' well-balanced offense should give Saints' defense trouble. Saints have been able to stall out one dimensional offensive teams like NY and Carolina the last few weeks; however, Rams have too much weaponry to limit, especially with top corner Lattimore (IR) still out. Rams are 11-2 O/U in 2nd of back-to-back home games vs teams above .333. Over the call.

Patriots/Steelers 8:15: Plummeting 'total' pretty much dictates the number of points expected here. Both offenses are abysmal. Defenses, however, are solid. Both veteran coaches know the value of maintaining drives, utilizing run game and burning clock without turnovers. We'll look for the punters to work overtime tonight. "Under" the call.  

Bears/Vikings 8:15: I projected about 43 to 43' on this 'total' so we get some value. Limiting turnovers and ball control emphasized on both teams. Vikings playing with Dobbs who is 2-1 O/U. Vikings 3-8 O/U for the season. Defense of Vikings has improved dramatically under DC Flores this season. Fields and explosive WR Moore with versatile RB Herbert will be focal points. On the other hand, liked how the Bears' defense improved since that October 5th game at Washington. They've gone 2-4 O/U since. We'll look for a physical battle with limited explosive plays. "Under" the call.

Patriots/Giants 1:00: Patriots had an extra week to prepare and surely Belichick has devised a scheme to fluster rookie QB Devito after his stellar performance vs Washington. Belichick has made many rookie QBs miserable in his career. On the other hand, Belichick doesn't know who he's starting today. And that's no threat to the Giants' defensive coordinator Martindale. Add Jones, Zappe and Grier's QBR together and it barely equals Belichick's shoe size. With the turnover potential great here, conservative run oriented football with limited explosive play would be the consensus. Patriots 2-14 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than a point. "Under" the call. 

Dolphins/Jets 3:00: Jets will rely on run game with Breece Hall (4.7 YPC) to ignite their pedestrian offense. Surely Saleh won't put the game in the hands of perennial backup QB Tim Boyle (3 TDs/9 INTs in career). Miami defense now showing late season signs of improvement now that Ramsey is in the fold and players in tune with DC Fangio system. On the other hand, Jets' defense keeps them in games. They'll have their hands full with the #1 offense in the NFL; however, Miami offensive line banged up across the board and the Jets can rush the passer. They also have the quality secondary personnel to limit explosive plays. Miami 1-3 O/U on road. Jets on an 0-5 O/U run. This series in New York is 1-4 O/U. "Under" 

Colorado/Washington State 10:30: Both of these teams are similar in structure: Explosive, pass happy offense, no run game, and poor defense. Colorado's QB Sanders has lit up secondaries ranked in the bottom tier of FBS teams. Washington State has one of those secondaries (112th). What's more, they're not pressuring or sacking the QB, not opportunistic (bottom tier in interceptions and fumble recoveries) and in the bottom tier in defensive penalties. On the other hand, Colorado defense, which allows 31 PPG, has a secondary ranked 118th in the nation and have trouble sacking the QB (bottom tier). Cameron Ward is equally impressive lighting up defenses with his arm to his speedy receiving corps. This 'total' inexplicably dropped a few points (64) since its opening. Take the "over".  

Akron/Eastern Michigan 7:00: Both of these offenses are brutal to watch. Ever since Akron lost their QB Irons - early in the season, they've been relying solely on RB Lingard. He can only do so much. QB Undercuffler Jr. has shown promise but limited help on the offensive line and from receivers Gathings and George. Akron does play a decent defense - allowing 28 PPG - good considering the limitations on offense (132nd in points produced).  EM offense every bit as bad with Austin Smith. EM at the bottom of the FBS in offensive yards produced (132nd). And the Eagles' defense, which allows 25 PPG, keeps them in games against teams they can be competitive with. We'll look for a slugfest here in a low scoring game. 

Broncos/Bills 8:15: Denver's defense improved dramatically since that 70-point debacle September 24th. Broncos have hit 3 straight "under". Buffalo's Allen has had trouble with turnovers; as a matter of fact, 14 interceptions last 13 games dating back to last season. Bills have gone "under" in 4 of the last 5 scoring 25 points or less. Finishing in the red zone has been a problem over that stretch. On the other hand, Bills defense has been hit with injuries across the board. Their defense is yielding but tight in red zone when it counts yielding just 17.8 PPG. Denver should be able to drive yet stall out inside 20 yard line. Broncos non-explosive play team with no vertical threats to speak of. Prime Time TV games at 7-25 O/U and NFL MNF 1-10 O/U. Stay "under".

Browns/Ravens 1:00: Two defenses that are tops in the NFL. Ravens' defense allows just 13.8 PPG while the Browns allow 17.4 PPG. Baltimore offense percolating under OC Monken; however, Ravens have just beaten teams senseless down field with limited explosive plays (20+ yards). Cleveland very tough to pound the course of the field on. In contrast, Browns a non-explosive offense themselves regardless of who is at the helm. Tough sledding against this Ravens' defense. Take the "Under" in limited scoring here.  

Bears/Chargers 8:20: Both defenses leave much to be desired - ranking in the bottom of the league in most categories. Bears' QB Bagent stepped in last week like he's been doing this for years. Great poise, pocket awareness, and a go-to target D.J. Moore who's been virtually uncoverable. Meanwhile, Herbert should shred a the fourth worst secondary in the NFL. Bears give up nearly 27 PPG. Chicago is 6-1 O/U this season. We'll look for a higher scoring game here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 4:25: When these teams go at it, they tend to put up points, especially in KC; as a matter of fact, the last 4 games in this series at KC averaged 54 with a range of 51 to 59.  Both gunslingers - Mahomes and Herbert are equipped with most of their key weapons. Weather should be nice at game time (72 degrees and sunny). Chargers got swept in this series last year. When they're in a revenge mode off a SU loss, they're 8-1 O/U. Over the call. 

FIU/SHS 7:00: Both of these teams have offenses stuck in the mud. Sam Houston has one of the worst offenses in college football with virtually no run game (2.4 YPC). Offensive line problems allow defenses to pin their ears back and tee off on them. FIU is not a defensive stalwart by no means. They hemorrhage yardage by the boatload but do tighten a bit in the red zone, which is a weakness of the Bearkats' offense. On the flip side, SHS has a defense that keeps them in games and FIU does not have explosive play arsenal. We'll stay "under" here.  

Saints/Patriots 1:00 Both offenses struggling mightily. Saints have now scored 21 or fewer points in 10 straight games. Patriots, despite the injuries, will surely be schematically sound under Belichick after disastrous game last week. And New Orleans has been solid most of the year defensively. We'll stay "under" here. Patriots 2-14 O/U as a non-conference favorite. Under the call. 

Jets/Cowboys 4:25: With the exception of SF, these two teams arguably had the best defensive performances last week. Cowboys' pass rush was unstoppable and that doesn't bode well against Zach Wilson and his shaky offensive line. On the other hand, Jets' defense is in great hands under Ulbrich. They're deep in all areas. Cowboys have gone conservative under McCarthy as the new signal caller. Can't see McCarthy giving green light to Prescott to air it out repeatedly against this loaded secondary of the Jets. We'll look for a defensive battle here in a lower scoring game. "Under" the call.