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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-21 | Golden Knights -130 v. Wild | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
15 Vegas at Minnesota Once again the Knights dominated play and failed to get the win. On the season Vegas is 4-2 when in revenge for losing a game the advanced stats show should have been a win. Interesting side bar for Vegas is that in four years of postseason play they still haven’t clinched a series in front of the home crowd. Minnesota was a house of horrors for this team previously, but that is no longer the case with the road team dominating on the scoreboard. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-26-21 | Penguins -104 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
9 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders This has been an extremely tight series like we expected. It’s been a clear zig zag series like you would expect from these two squads. With Pittsburgh losing at home last time out in a game it should have won, based on the advanced stats. The Penguins are 5-2 on the season in revenge, when losing a game it fared better in the advanced stats. Look for the road team to come out with a little more fight tonight. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-23-21 | Oilers -121 v. Jets | 4-5 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
67 Edmonton at Winnipeg Maybe we are a gluten for punishment, but we believe the Oilers have outplayed the Jets in this series, despite being down 2-0. Maybe getting out of town will be the elixir for this Edmonton offense. This was a group that excelled all season putting goals on the board, and we aren’t giving up on what we consider to be the better team. What we have done all season is not going to change after two bad resulting games. Give us the Oilers to get back into this series. PLAY EDMONTON |
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05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -183 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
56 Montreal at Toronto The underdogs have had a great amount of success in the opening game of these series. The same was true in this one, as Toronto likely took them for granted. Now that the Maple Leafs staff has seen what the Canadiens are trying to do, we look for the better team to make the needed adjustments. PLAY TORONTO |
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05-22-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -108 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
54 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders This series has been about as close as you could have asked for. But during the regular season Pittsburgh was close to unbeatable at home, but not nearly as good on the road. Now trailing the series 2-1 we can expect the host to get the better of the Penguins. This looks to be a six or seven game series, and we expect the hosts to have a sizable edge from here on out. PLAY NY ISLANDERS |
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05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -165 | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
46 Winnipeg at Edmonton We lost on the Oilers in game one, but despite the defeat we liked the way they played. According to the advanced stats Edmonton suffered from bad puck luck. That and only getting one power play chance the entire contest. The Oilers are dominant on the power play, and Winnipeg stayed out of the penalty box in that opening meeting. But you can’t expect that to happen again with the speed of this Edmonton first line. Let’s look for a nice rebound here for the Oilers. PLAY EDMONTON |
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05-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild -102 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
40 Vegas at Minnesota Being a season ticket holder we went to the first two games in Las Vegas. After watching those games in person, and viewing the regular season games on television, it’s clear that these two teams are equal against each other. While the Golden Knights have dominated against the bottom feeders of the division, Minnesota has the speed and talent to match up extremely well in this series. While the Knights grabbed the 3-1 victory on Tuesday, the Wild were the more consistent team throughout the game. Now going up north to Minnesota, we expect a big bounce back from the host. Considering that Vegas has won once in regulation in four years in Minnesota, and the Knights are off a satisfying victory, it’s time for the Wild to shine. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-20-21 | Panthers +129 v. Lightning | 6-5 | Win | 129 | 22 h 35 m | Show | |
33 Florida at Tampa Bay Coming into the series Florida had the home ice advantage, and yet Tampa Bay was made the series favorite. After the first two games the scoreboard would agree with the Lightning as the better team. But the Panthers played much better than the final scores indicated. Now returning home with a 2-0 series lead, the Lightning can’t help but think they are in complete control of this opponent. As for Florida, this is a do or die game from a team that knows it can compete on a daily basis with Tampa Bay. Look for the Panthers to be the more aggressive team, and the price is certainly a value. PLAY FLORIDA |
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05-19-21 | Jets v. Oilers -148 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -148 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
28 Winnipeg at Edmonton In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 15th and Edmonton 18th. In xG/60 the Jets are -0.29 and the Oilers are -0.02. So the Oilers are much better than the actual goals scored would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 9th and Edmonton 1st. In xG/60 we find the Jets +6.34 and the Oilers +7.89. Over 1 1/2 goals per 60 minutes on the power play for the host. Playing Short Handed the Jets rank 10th and the Oilers 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -6.91 and Edmonton -7.00. So virtually equal when looking at expected goals. Edmonton won 7 of 9 in this series, outscoring the Jets 34-23. There are only two quality teams coming out of Canada in these playoffs, Toronto and Edmonton. We will gladly lay the price here to get the Oilers at home. PLAY EDMONTON |
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05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -155 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
18 Minnesota at Vegas In 5x5 G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 27th and Vegas 10th. In xG/60 we find the Wild +0.22 and the Knights 0.41. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 23rd and Vegas 20th. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.42 and the Knights +7.47. A huge advantage for the host that doesn’t show when looking at actual goals. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 14th and Las Vegas ranks 2nd. In xG/60 the Wild are -5.33 and the Golden Knights are -5.13. Minnesota has played very well against Vegas this season, but the Knights are 4-2 playing with revenge off a game they outplayed the opposition and still lost. On a rink that has produced a 21-5-2 regular season record, we look for the host to even up this series. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-18-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
14 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh We played the Islanders in the first game of this series, and came away with a nice overtime victory. But in watching that game it was clear that Pittsburgh was the better team. The Penguins have a 4-2 record in revenge after outplaying the opposition and still losing. Now back home down 0-1 we have to expect a rebound from the Penguins on Tuesday. This team posted a 22-4-2 record on this ice during the regular season. And the Islanders won only 11 of 28 total games on the road. Lay it with the host. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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05-17-21 | Bruins -125 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
1 Boston at Washington Now that the Capitals took the first game, we have a solid opportunity on Boston to even the series. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Bruins are 12th and the Capitals 4th. In xG/60 we find Boston +0.27 and Washington +0.15. So regression is in store for the visitor. On the Power Play Washington ranks 8th and Boston 16th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Bruins +5.31 and the Capitals +6.41. A sizable advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Boston ranks 3rd and Washington 5th. In xG/60 the Bruins are -3.92 and the Capitals -5.27. A terrific advantage for Boston, as Washington is overrated in the rankings. Boston should have won the first game and now Washington is having a weaker goaltending situation. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-16-21 | Islanders +120 v. Penguins | 4-3 | Win | 120 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
63 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh The Islanders backed into the playoffs after struggling at the end of the season. But this is a well coached team that has shown itself to be able to compete with the majority of teams in this league. In 5x5 play G+-/60 NY ranks 8th and Pittsburgh 6th. In xG/60 we find the Islanders +0.36 and Pittsburgh -0.05. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 14th and the Penguins 5th. In xG/60 we see NY +6.33 and Pittsburgh +5.73. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 4th and the Penguins 23rd. In xG/60 NY is -5.50 and Pittsburgh -5.55. So we are getting the better team in expected goals as an underdog. A team that is being an afterthought in the playoff discussion. Yep, that’s something we want to take advantage of. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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05-13-21 | Wild -108 v. Blues | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
37 Minnesota at St Louis The Wild were embarrassed yesterday and we expect a major bounce back. They are 6-3 this year playing in the second game of a back to back situation. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Wild rank 9th and the Blues 19th. In xG/60 we find Minnesota +0.20 and St Louis -0.33. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 23rd and St Louis 4th. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.13 and the Blues +6.02. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Wild Rank 11th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 we find Minnesota -5.23 and St Louis -7.63. The only advantage St Louis has is on the Power Play, but that is overshadowed by the other two situations for Minnesota. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets -165 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
26 Vancouver at Winnipeg Limited writeup today based on time constraints. The Jets outplayed the Canucks yesterday, despite coming up short on the scoreboard. Quick revenge spot here for the better team. It’s a battle between the Jets and the Canadiens on who can avoid Toronto in the first round. Two games left for Winnipeg and one for Montreal, with the Jets holding a one point lead. We preferred Vancouver yesterday if we had to make a choice, Winnipeg comes through tonight. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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05-10-21 | Avalanche -108 v. Golden Knights | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
21 Colorado at Vegas Most of the time when you have a must win contest it’s a team that put themselves in that position by not winning enough games. Colorado is a team that suffered key injuries to put themselves behind the eight ball. They trail the Knights by four points, and it’s extremely important to win the division because nobody wants to play Minnesota in the opening round. In 5x5 action in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 1st and Vegas 3rd. In xG/60 we see the Avalanche at +0.88 and the Knights at +0.39. Basically a half goal per 60 minutes of 5x5 time. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 3rd and the Knights 19th. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche at +8.10 and Vegas at +7.20. Basically a full goal better on the power play for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 9th and Vegas ranks 3rd. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche are -5.11 and the Knights are -5.20. So positive regression is on the side of the Avalanche. Colorado has advantages everywhere and are in a must win situation, yet the current line shows plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY COLORADO |
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05-10-21 | Blues v. Kings +118 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
20 St Louis at Los Angeles The Blues can’t move up in the standings, or move down. They are locked into that fourth position in the division. They gave little effort last time out vs Vegas, and we can see them not being too interested here. Los Angeles on the other hand has fared well against the Blues this season, and are looking to pass the Sharks for sixth place in the west. On the season St Louis is a net -10 goals and the Kings a -16 goals, so these teams are much closer than the records suggest. In xG/60 Los Angeles is the better team, and to get them as a home dog in their final home game is a no brainer. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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05-09-21 | Senators +178 v. Flames | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
9 Ottawa at Calgary Must win game for the Flames as they are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs. Which is why this line is so high. But we’ve always said that teams in must win games must not be very good to put themselves in this type of situation. Over the last ten games Calgary has gone 5-5-0 and Ottawa 8-1-1. The Sens have played three more games but have two more points than Calgary. After spending the entire season in dead last this team can finish the season in fifth place. So even though Ottawa played yesterday, in their minds they are also motivated in this contest. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find Ottawa ranking 26th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 we see the Sens -0.19 and the Flames +0.17. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Calgary 22nd. In xG/60 we find the Senators +5.36 and the Flames +5.36, exactly even. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Senators are ranked 13th and the Flames 21st. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -5.94 and Calgary -5.68. White the Flames need to win this game to keep their season alive, the numbers say these two teams are close to even. A huge advantage in price for the Senators. By the way, Ottawa has taken six of eight games in this series this season. PLAY OTTAWA |
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05-08-21 | Senators +162 v. Jets | 4-2 | Win | 162 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
65 Ottawa at Winnipeg In 5x5 G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 27th and Winnipeg 15th. In xG/60 the Senators are -0.20 and the Jets -0.34. Regression heavily favors Ottawa. On the Power Play Ottawa ranks 28th and Winnipeg 7th. In xG/60 we find the Senators at +5.39 and the Jets +6.38. A nice edge for the host. On the Penalty Kill the Senators rank 13th and the Jets 12th. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -5.97 and Winnipeg -6.95. An equal edge for the visitor. Winnipeg has won six of the nine games this season, but the last six have been split. Ottawa is playing the much better hockey down the stretch with a 7-2-1 mark while the Jets are 3-7-0. This line is simply too high to consider the favorite. PLAY OTTAWA |
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05-08-21 | Red Wings +118 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
57 Detroit at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 Detroit ranks 25th and Columbus 30th. In xG/60 we find the Red Wings -0.4 and the Blue Jackets -0.46. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 30th and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 its the Red Wings at +4.14 and the Blue Jackets at +3.82. So the Red Wings are better than the actual goals suggest. Playing Short Handed Detroit ranks 28th and Columbus 15th. In xG/60 we find the Wings -6.78 and the Jackets -5.11. A substantial advantage for the host. Detroit leads the season series four to three, and this is the final game of the season for both these squads. The Red Wings came into the season with no expectations at all. While the Blue Jackets expected to make the playoffs. We expect the visitor to come out with more energy as this team has played pretty well down the stretch. Columbus not so much. PLAY DETROITÂ |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -163 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
46 St Louis at Vegas In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Knights 3rd. In xG/60 St Louis is -0.32 and Vegas +0.38. A solid .70 goals advantage per 60 minutes for the host. On the Power Play St Louis ranks 3rd and Vegas 15th in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find the Blues +5.97 and the Knights +7.20. So there is major regression on the horizon for both these teams, with Vegas having a sizable expected goal advantage. On the Penalty Kill St Louis ranks 27th and Vegas 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues -7.67 and the Knights -5.14. A major advantage of over 2.5 goals per 60 minutes playing short handed. Vegas is 4-2 in the season series with one of the losses coming in a shootout. The line is cheap here because many expect a letdown after finally winning in Minnesota a couple days ago. Normally that would be a concern, but a similar situation occurred about a week ago. The Knights had just beaten Colorado in an important game to bring their winning streak to ten games. They traveled to Arizona and were dominated by the Coyotes 3-0. The team as a whole talked about taking that game for granted and said they couldn’t afford to do that again. With that situation fresh in their minds we expect 100% effort from the host tonight. Look for the Knights to make a statement against their likely first round playoff opponent. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-07-21 | Red Wings +128 v. Blue Jackets | 5-2 | Win | 128 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
31 Detroit at Columbus In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Red Wings rank 25th and the Blue Jackets 30th. In xG/60 we find Detroit -0.42 and Columbus -0.47. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 30th and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 the Red Wings are +4.13 and the Jackets +3.82. So the advanced numbers favor the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 15th and Detroit 28th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are -5.12 and the Red Wings are -6.81. A sizable advantage for the host. These teams have split the six game season series thus far, but Detroit is playing much better now than earlier in the season. With a win here Detroit can knock the Blue Jackets into last place. Considering the start this team had that would be a major accomplishment. Columbus is just playing out the disappointing season, look for the Red Wings to dominate play tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames -123 | 4-0 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
14 Winnipeg at Calgary In 5x5 G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 17th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 we find the Jets -0.34 and the Flames +0.17. A nice advantage for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 7th and Calgary 18th. In xG/60 it’s the Jets at +6.47 and the Flames +5.44. A substantial edge for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 we find Winnipeg ranking 15th and Calgary 17th. In xG/60 the Jets are -7.11 and the Flames -5.76. A major advantage for the host. Calgary has taken some money overnight, and we firmly agree with that move. This line is cheap for the host. PLAY CALGARY |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +102 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
12 Vegas at Minnesota In 5x5 G+-/60 Vegas ranks 3rd and Minnesota 7th. In xG/60 the Knights are +0.37 and the Wild are 0.16. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 17th and Minnesota 23rd. In xG/60 we find the Knights +7.11 and the Wild +5.67. A sizable advantage for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 3rd and Minnesota 10th. In xG/60 the Knights are -5.32 and the Wild -5.10. Much better than the actual results show. The numbers suggest Vegas to be the better team, and they are. But this has been the toughest matchup for the Golden Knights in their short history. They have yet to beat Minnesota in regulation in this building. Even the head coach came out this week and said it’s in their heads after blowing a two goal lead heading into the third period on Monday. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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05-05-21 | Canadiens v. Senators +133 | 1-5 | Win | 133 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
80 Montreal at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 Montreal ranks 13th and Ottawa 28th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +0.35, and the Senators -0.23. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 13th and Ottawa 28th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +5.54 and the Sens +5.32, much closer than the actual goals show. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 11th and Ottawa 12th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are -5.90 and the Sens -6.02. While the seasonal stats show Montreal to be the better team, the Senators are playing much better as of late. Montreal is 5-5-0 as of late, Ottawa is 7-2-1. Montreal needs the win to try to avoid Toronto in the opening round, but that need is included in this line. The opener was much too high, and we agree with the line move. PLAY OTTAWA |
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05-01-21 | Kings v. Ducks +119 | 2-6 | Win | 119 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
26 Los Angeles at Anaheim The Kings are 4-3 in this series in 2021, and are off a victory in this building last night. But Anaheim was the better team last night, and yet the line has risen overnight. The Kings believe they are still in playoff mode but we’re not buying it. Because of the must win situation we are getting value on the Ducks. This is the final home game of the season for Anaheim who finishes the season with touch games at St Louis and Minnesota. After dropping 3 of 4 against the Kings the past two weeks, we expect a strong effort from the host on Saturday. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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05-01-21 | Stars +100 v. Predators | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
21 Dallas at Nashville The Stars are playing their second of a season ending seven game road trip. Coming off a 3-0 loss at Tampa Bay. They are only 3-4 vs Nashville but all four losses came in overtime or a shootout. Dallas is built for regulation play as they have been bad when being extended. Off a shutout loss and playing with revenge we prefer Dallas in this contest. PLAY DALLAS |
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05-01-21 | Penguins v. Capitals -108 | 3-0 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
6 Pittsburgh at Washington Quick revenge game for the Capitals who dropped a 5-4 overtime decision to the Penguins on Thursday. Pittsburgh has taken five of seven in this series. But we have these two rated virtually identical. With Washington in revenge and at home, the value is on the Capitals. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-30-21 | Golden Knights -186 v. Coyotes | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -186 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
73 Vegas at Arizona Somewhat surprised by the value on the Knights here, based on the team with the league wide highest winning streak this season. Sure Vegas is off that key game with Colorado, but what have they shown to not be a substantial favorite here? Vegas is 16-7-0 on the road this season, while Arizona is only 11-10-3 at home. The Knights are on a 7-1 run away from home, and are 5-1 vs the Coyotes on the year. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 2nd and the Coyotes rank 21st. In xG/60 We find Vegas at +0.42 and Arizona -0.25. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Knights rank 18th and the Coyotes 23rd. In xG/60 Vegas is +7.13 and Arizona +4.79. A huge advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 2nd and Arizona 18th. In xG/60 we find the Knights -5.33 and the Coyotes -7.71. Another major advantage for the visitor. We played Dallas at Detroit in this price range earlier, and the Stars completely dominated the game. They had to go to overtime to win, but the stats showed it was a complete mismatch. This looks like the strongest road favorite value on the season, despite having to lay close to -200. This line should be much higher. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-29-21 | Flames v. Oilers -122 | 3-1 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
62 Calgary at Edmonton Used the Oilers last night and we were rewarded with basically a wire to wire winner. Edmonton has won 5 of the 8 meetings this season. The Oilers are also a strong 5-2 playing in the second game of a back to back situation. Edmonton has a whopping 2.4 xG/60 advantage on the Power Play. But Calgary is better on the Penalty Kill by 1.7 xG/60. We firmly believe other than Toronto, that Edmonton is the only quality team is this division. We will put our money on that opinion tonight. PLAY EDMONTON |
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04-29-21 | Flyers -127 v. Devils | 3-5 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
51 Philadelphia at New Jersey Not often we are looking to back the Flyers as a road favorite, but we just can’t ignore the numbers. Philadelphia is a very respectable 12-10-3 on the road, New Jersey is a poor 5-17-3 at home. Philadelphia has won 3 of 4 meetings this year, with the lone loss coming two days ago. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Flyers rank 22nd and the Devils 17th. In xG/60 Philadelphia is -0.02 and New Jersey is exactly even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 24th and New Jersey 29th. In xG/60 we find the Flyers at +5.91 and the Devils +4.66. A sizable advantage to the visitor. Playing Short Handed these are the two worst teams in the league in G+-/60. Philadelphia ranks 30th and New Jersey 31st. In xG/60 we find the Flyers -6.32 and the Devils -7.53. A much larger advantage for Philadelphia as opposed to the actual goals. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-28-21 | Oilers -107 v. Jets | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
41 Edmonton at Winnipeg In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 15th and the Jets 17th. In xG/60 we see Edmonton is -0.01 and Winnipeg -0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find both teams faring well as the Oilers rank 2nd and the Jets 5th. In xG/60 Edmonton is +7.79 and Winnipeg +6.55. A nice edge for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 25th and the Jets 10th. In xG/60 Edmonton is -7.42 and Winnipeg -7.19. Much closer than the actual goals suggest. The Oilers have been solid on the road all season winning 14 of 23 games, Winnipeg has struggled a bit at home winning 11 of 24. The Edmonton speed has led them to winning six of the eight meetings this season. Look for that strength to be the difference here. PLAY EDMONTON |
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04-28-21 | Blues v. Wild -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
38 St Louis at Minnesota Many will look at this as a must win for the Blues, who are fighting off Arizona to make the playoffs. But Minnesota only sits a point behind Colorado and five behind Vegas for the divisional title. St Louis is off back to back upsets of the Avalanche, and face Minnesota five times down the stretch. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 19th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -0.31 and Minnesota +0.12. On the Power Play St Louis ranks 6th and Minnesota 20th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Blues +5.87 and the Wild 5.84. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Blues rank 28th and the Wild 6th. In xG/60 we find St Louis -7.98 and Minnesota -4.91. A major advantage for the host. St Louis has been a solid 12-8-2 on the road this year, but the Wild has been an outstanding 17-4-0 in this building. Let’s lay it with the far better team. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-27-21 | Panthers -108 v. Predators | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
29 Florida at Nashville Because of time constraints today we will need to keep this analysis short and sweet. Florida has a .4 xG/60 advantage skating 5x5. The Panthers have a huge 1.4 goals advantage on the power play. The penalty kill is very close with Nashville actually having a slight edge. Florida has won 4 of the 7 meetings, but was pounded yesterday 4-1. Look for the better team to bounce back tonight with a solid victory. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-26-21 | Hurricanes -119 v. Stars | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
3 Carolina at Dallas The Stars are coming off six games against the weak competition of Detroit and Columbus. Against the top three teams in the division Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay, the Stars are 4-14 on the season. Carolina just split on the road at Tampa Bay and Florida, and end the month vs the Stars and Red Wings. This is the fourth game of a six game road trip, but every game is important right now for Carolina. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 8th and the Stars 13th. In xG/60 we see Carolina +0.43 and Dallas +0.28. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Carolina ranks 1st and Dallas 9th. In xG/60 we see the Hurricanes +6.00 and the Stars +6.62. So Dallas is due for some positive regression. Playing Short Handed is where the visitor has a sizable advantage. In 5x5 G+-/60 Carolina ranks 2nd and Dallas 20th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are -3.85 and the Stars -6.05. With the Stars struggles against the elite, look for Carolina to bounce back from blowing a late lead in Florida. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche -155 v. Blues | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
69 Colorado at St Louis Important game for the Avalanche who are now trailing the red hot Golden Knights. Neither team wants to have to face Minnesota in the first round, so clinching first place is extremely big in this division. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 1st and St Louis 19th. In xG/60 we find the Avalanche +0.90 and the Blues -0.30. A full 1.2 goals better in 60 minutes of 5x5 play. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Colorado ranks 4th and St Louis 8th. In xG/60 the Avalanche are +7.96 and the Blues +5.86. Over two full goals per 60 minutes of power play time. Playing Short Handed the Avalanche rank 8th and the Blues 28th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Colorado is -5.06 and St Louis -6.53. Basically a 1 1/2 goal per 60 minutes advantage for the visitor. Colorado is 5-2 in this series and are off a loss. Look for the much better team to get the victory on Monday. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-24-21 | Stars -190 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
47 Dallas at Detroit Not many times will we recommend a team as an away favorite in this price range. But a look at the stats shows this line should be much higher. In 5x5 G+-/60 Dallas ranks 13th and Detroit 24th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.23 and the Red Wings -0.26. So about 1/2 goal advantage for the visitor in a full 60 minutes of 5x5 play. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Dallas ranks 7th and Detroit 30th. In xG/60 the Stars are +6.47 and the Red Wings +4.31. Over two goals per 60 minutes advantage on the Power Play. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Stars rank 20th and the Red Wings 29th. In xG/60 Dallas is -6.14 and Detroit is -6.55. Major advantages across the board for the Stars, along with revenge for an embarrassing 7-3 loss on Thursday. Dallas has won 5 of the 7 games played between these two this season. The Stars worst goal prevention on the season was allowing five goals twice. Now off a seven goal effort look for Dallas to clamp down majorly on Saturday. PLAY DALLAS |
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04-23-21 | Predators -123 v. Blackhawks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
35 Nashville at Chicago We were extremely lucky to cash with the Blackhawks on Wednesday, as the Preds completely outplayed them. While we are not giving the money back, we had a wrong side winner in that contest. In 5x5 G+-/60 Nashville ranks 18th and Chicago 8th. In xG/60 the Preds are -0.01 and the Blackhawks come in at -0.40. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Nashville ranking 20th and Chicago 13th. In xG/60 the Predators are +4.92 and the Blackhawks are +5.06. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 28th and Chicago 26th. In xG/60 we see the Preds -5.95 and the Blackhawks -5.71. The Predators have won 5 of 6 meetings this year and should have won Wednesday. They bounce back here in a big way. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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04-22-21 | Senators +125 v. Canucks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
27 Ottawa at Vancouver Going unnoticed by the casual fan, the Senators are playing well right now. Coming off a 4-2 road win at Calgary along with a 4-0 victory at Montreal. Previously they spit a two game home series with Winnipeg, outscoring them 6-5. And they also took Toronto to the wire in a 6-5 loss on the road. In 5x5 G+-/60 Vancouver ranks 19th and Ottawa 31st. But in xG/60 in 5x5 action the Canucks are -0.46 and the Senators -0.33. So positive regression is in store for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Ottawa ranks 28th and Vancouver 25th. In xG/60 we see the Senators +5.25 and the Canucks +5.61. Playing Short Handed the Senators are 18th, and the Canucks 21st in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Ottawa -6.38 and Vancouver -7.36. A major advantage for the visitor. Vancouver is 5-0 on the season vs Ottawa, but these teams aren’t the same as they were in January. The last two meetings in March were both decided after regulation. Look for Ottawa to get the nice underdog victory tonight. PLAY OTTAWA |
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04-22-21 | Maple Leafs -128 v. Jets | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
81 Toronto at Winnipeg Getting nice value on the far better team here. If this game had been played two weeks ago the Maple Leafs would have likely been a -160 favorite. But because of this poor run we are finding the superior team at a great price. In 5x5 G+-/60 Toronto ranks 5th and Winnipeg 14th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +0.51, and the Jets -0.29. A sizable advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 8th and Winnipeg 4th. When looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 the Leafs are +7.90 and the Jets +6.51. So major positive regression is in store for Toronto. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Leafs rank 23rd and the Jets 12th. In xG/60 we find Toronto -4.83 and Winnipeg -6.49. A huge advantage for Toronto over the actual goals scored. We have the much better team with a major chip on their shoulders. Look for a terrific effort out of the visitor. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-21-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks +104 | 4-5 | Win | 104 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
2 Nashville at Chicago In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 15th and Chicago 21st. In xG/60 we find the Predators -0.05 and the Blackhawks -0.37. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 20th and Chicago 13th. In xG/60 we find the Preds +5.00 and the Blackhawks +5.15. Playing Short Handed the Predators rank 28th and Chicago 27th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Nashville -6.08 and Chicago -5.81. So the stats show these two to be completely equal on the season. Nashville is 11-12-1 on the road, Chicago is 11-8-2 at home. The Preds are playing in its fourth different city in the past five games. Coming off a 5-2 home win over Chicago on Monday. Nashville has beaten Chicago all six meetings this season. So now we get the Blackhawks at home as an underdog. The numbers show these two to be even, and yet Nashville has come out on top every meeting. We don’t buy the dominance, give us the Blackhawks as a small home dog. PLAY CHICAGO |
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04-19-21 | Wild v. Coyotes +131 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
44 Minnesota at Arizona After three straight wins at home Minnesota now travels for four straight on the road. They have won 5 of 6 on the season in this series. The Coyotes played eight straight away from home, before returning ti Phoenix with a 3-2 win over the red hot Blues on Saturday. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 we find the Wild ranking 11th and the Coyotes 21st. In xG/60 it’s Minnesota at +0.16 and Arizona -0.24. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 25th and Arizona 22nd. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.77 and the Coyotes +4.55. So positive regression is in store for the Wild. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 5th and the Coyotes 18th. In xG/60 it’s the Wild -4.59 and the Coyotes -7.99. A major advantage for the visitor. While the numbers show Minnesota to be the better team, the spot favors the host. The Wild is great at home but just mediocre on the road at 10-9-3. At 11-8-3 for the Coyotes at home, we find value in a must win game for Arizona. The Coyotes are barely handing on to the final playoff spot in this division, with a one point lead over St Louis. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-19-21 | Blackhawks +125 v. Predators | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
41 Chicago at Nashville The Blackhawks are looking for their first win of the season against the Preds. Three of the games were lost by a single goal. In 5x5 G+-/60 Chicago ranks 8th and the Predators 18th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -0.37, while Nashville is -0.05. So much closer than the actual goals scored would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Blackhawks are ranked 12th and the Preds 18th. In xG/60 Chicago is +5.21 and Nashville +5.17. Neither teams is good on the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 with Chicago ranking 28th and Nashville 27th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -6.02, and the Preds -6.17. We have these two rated virtually even, so there is really no reason why Nashville has won the first five meetings. Look for Chicago to get in the win column here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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04-17-21 | Panthers +135 v. Lightning | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
9 Florida at Tampa Bay In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Lightning 7th. In xG/60 we find Florida +0.32 and Tampa +0.23. So nice regression is in store for the Panthers. On the Power Play Florida ranks 11th and Tampa Bay 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +6.98 and the Lightning +6.13. So major positive regression is in store for Florida. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida comes in ranked 16th and Tampa Bay 9th. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.12 and the Lightning -4.85. A substantial advantage for the host. With these two battling for the second time in three days, we will look for Florida to even the series. The Panthers deserved better than an overtime loss on Wednesday. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings +144 | 1-4 | Win | 144 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
60 Chicago at Detroit The Blackhawks have won five of the six meetings with the Red Wings this year. They just swept a two game series on the road at Columbus. This is a team coming in fat and happy. Detroit is playing much better than the earlier meetings with Chicago. So far this month the Red Wings have beaten Tampa Bay on the road 5-1, and swept Carolina away from home 5-4 and 3-1. This is a team with tremendous betting value right now. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 23rd and Detroit 28th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -0.35 and the Red Wings -0.29. Better than the actual goals differential. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 12th and Detroit 30th. In xG/60 we see the Blackhawks +5.06 and the Red Wings +4.36. An advantage for the visitor, but much closer than the rankings suggest. Neither team is very good playing Short Handed. Chicago ranks 28th and Detroit 29th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -6.07 and the Wings -6.49. While Chicago is the better team, this spot favors Detroit. The advanced stats show these two to be much closer in talent than this line suggests. Look for Chicago to overlook the Red Wings tonight. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-15-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -182 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
48 Nashville at Carolina The Predators have dropped all four meetings with the Hurricanes, but they have been playing much better as of late. Coming in off a dominating 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay. Carolina is playing its seventh of eight straight games at home, off an embarrassing loss to Detroit. In 5x5 action in G+-/60 the Preds rank 15th and the Hurricanes 10th. In xG/60 Nashville is +0.04 and Carolina +0.38. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Predators rank 18th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 we see Nashville at +5.21 and Carolina +6.35. A substantial advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 27th and Carolina 3rd. In xG/60 the Preds are -6.07 and the Hurricanes -4.06. Another huge advantage for the host. While Nashville has played much better defensively as of late, this game means just as much to the host. The Canes are in a three way battle for the division title, and know it can beat this team after doing so in every meeting this year. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-15-21 | Flyers +144 v. Penguins | 2-1 | Win | 144 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
51 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh The Flyers have taken three of five meetings with the Penguins. Pittsburgh returns home from a profitable road trip. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Flyers rank 29th and the Penguins 9th. In looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we find Philadelphia -0.05 and the Penguins -0.07. So there is positive regression coming for Philly, with negative regression for Pittsburgh. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 22nd and Pittsburgh 7th. In xG/60 we see the Flyers at +5.67 and Pittsburgh +5.91. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 30th and Pittsburgh 22nd. In xG/60 its the Flyers at -6.61 and the Penguins -5.47. A solid advantage for the host. The Flyers have played better on the road this year and have confidence against its in state rival. The Penguins had a few days off after its road trip, which may not be a good thing as it played well away from home. Let’s take a shot with the Flyers here at a generous price. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-14-21 | Ducks v. Sharks -173 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -173 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
44 Anaheim at San Jose Both these teams are poor skating 5x5 in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 25th. In xG/60 we see the Ducks at -0.42 and the Sharks +0.04. So we can expect major positive regression for San Jose. Once again both teams have looked bad on the Power Play in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks dead last at 31st and San Jose is 26th. When looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we find Anaheim +6.69 and the Sharks +6.28. So Anaheim has a bit of positive regression on its way. On the Penalty Kill Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Ducks are -6.55 and the Sharks -5.74. A nice advantage for the host. Anaheim has two wins in six games this month, both against these Sharks in this building. This is the third game in four days for Anaheim. This is the final game of a 1-3 home stand for the Sharks who then travel to Minnesota and Vegas. This is the game San Jose has to have and we believe they get it. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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04-13-21 | Panthers -109 v. Stars | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
29 Florida at Dallas Quick turnaround game after the Stars beat the Panthers 4-1 on Saturday. Dallas lost at Nashville in a shootout between these two Florida contests. In 5x5 G+-/60 Florida ranks 13th and Dallas 10th. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +0.33 and the Stars +0.16. So slight regression in the favor of the visitor. On the Power Play the Panthers rank 11th and the Stars 8th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see Florida +6.76 and Dallas +6.58. Another situation that suggests Florida positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Florida ranks 15th and Dallas 22nd. In xG/60 we see the Panthers -6.17 and the Stars -6.18. Dallas is playing its third game in five days, so the rest and the revenge factor is in play for the visitor. With a solid 12-8-1 record on the road we will back the Panthers here. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-12-21 | Maple Leafs -129 v. Canadiens | 2-4 | Loss | -129 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
3 Toronto at Montreal Two of the best 5x5 G+-/60 teams square off on Monday. Toronto ranks 3rd and Montreal 4th. In xG/60 we find the Leafs +0.53 and the Habs +0.52. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 25th and Montreal 13th. But when looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 the numbers tell a whole different story. As Toronto is +8.02 and Montreal +6.13. As Toronto is due for a major uptick in power play goals. Playing Short Handed the Leafs rank 19th and the Canadiens 14th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find Toronto - 4.63 and Montreal -6.05. Once again Toronto is due for positive regression. With Montreal only good on 5x5 and the Maple Leafs excellent on the special teams, we will side with the visitor. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-12-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets +107 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
8 Chicago at Columbus The Blue Jackets are off back to back home losses to the Lightning and these Blackhawks. After this game Columbus goes on a six game road trip to Dallas, Florida and Tampa Bay. So this is a must win game for the Blue Jackets. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 24th and Columbus 27th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -0.36 and the Blue Jackets -0.44. On the Power Play Chicago ranks 12th and Columbus 28th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks +5.09 and the Blue Jackets +3.50. A substantial advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Blackhawks rank 28th and the Jackets 18th. In xG/60 we see Chicago -6.07 and Columbus -4.95. A nice advantage for the host. While the raw numbers may show Chicago to be slightly better, the Blue Jackets need, along with home ice put us squarely on the host. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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04-11-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Flyers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
67 Buffalo at Philadelphia PUCK LINE PLAY ON BUFFALO +1 1/2 In 5x5 G+-/60 the Sabres rank 31st and the Flyers rank 29th. In xG/60 Buffalo is -0.46 and Philadelphia -0.07. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Sabres rank 13th and the Flyers are 22nd. In xG/60 Buffalo is +5.19 and Philadelphia is +5.51. Positive regression should be coming forth Flyers. On the Penalty Kill the Sabres rank 17th and the Flyers 29th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Buffalo is -6.79 and Philadelphia -6.59. So there is to be some slight regression for the host. The Flyers have the slightly better numbers and deserve to be favored, but not by anywhere near this number. Let’s take the puck line as we expect this to be a one goal game either way. PLAY BUFFALO +1 1/2 |
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04-10-21 | Oilers v. Flames +100 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
84 Edmonton at Calgary The Oilers enter this contest off back to back wins and playing its last game of a four game road trip. Calgary is off back to back home losses and haven’t played since Monday because of the Vancouver cancellation. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Oilers rank 15th and the Flames rank 22nd. In xG/60 we find Edmonton -0.03 and Calgary +0.03. Virtually even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Edmonton ranks 2nd and Calgary 19th. In xG/60 the Oilers are an outstanding +8.05 and the Flames are +5.33. A huge edge for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Edmonton ranks 22nd and the Flames come in 18th. In xG/60 the Oilers are -7.45 and Calgary is -5.97. A substantial advantage for the host. With extra time to prepare the host has the advantage because of the in season coaching change. This team has time to practice and prepare for the end of season run. It starts here for the Flames. PLAY CALGARY |
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04-10-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -120 | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
52 Winnipeg at Montreal Quick revenge spot for the Habs who we backed in a 4-2 loss on Thursday. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Jets rank 13th and the Canadiens rank 2nd. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg -0.31 and Montreal +0.56. A sizable advantage for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 6th and Montreal ranks 18th. Looking at the advanced stats we find the Jets +6.18 and the Canadiens +6.10. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. And also suggesting positive regression for the Habs. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Jets rank 14th and the Habs 12th. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg at -6.66 and Montreal at -5.97. Montreal outplayed Winnipeg the other day and puck luck cost them a victory. They get it back with a cheap line on Saturday. PLAY MONTREAL |
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04-10-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -103 | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
54 Chicago at Columbus Neither team has had a good season skating 5x5. In G+-/60 Chicago ranks 24th and Columbus 27th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -0.35 and the Blue Jackets -0.46. On the Power Play the Blackhawks rank 12th and the Jackets 28th. In xG/60 we find Chicago +4.98 and Columbus +3.53. A nice advantage for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Chicago comes in 28th and Columbus 17th. In xG/60 we see the Blackhawks at -6.13 and Columbus -4.78. A sizable advantage for the host. Columbus is off a 6-4 loss to Tampa Bay that was out of hand early. The spot favors the host and the stats show this as a very even game. Our numbers show the Blue Jackets to be a -130 favorite here, which gives us plenty of leeway. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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04-09-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights -230 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
42 Arizona at Vegas Coyotes playing in their sixth game of a nine game road trip. The Knights have dropped four of five games but are now playing ten straight against teams likely not making the playoffs. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 19th, while the Golden Knights come in ranking 7th. In xG/60 we see Arizona -0.26 and Vegas +0.24. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find the Coyotes ranking 22nd, and the Knight ranking 21st. In xG/60 Arizona is +4.53 and Vegas is +7.11. Playing Short Handed Arizona ranks 10th and the Knights 5th. In xG/60 The Coyotes are -8.12 and the Golden Knights are -5.90. While we are aware that the Coyotes are playing much better as of late, the truth is this is a terrible matchup for Arizona. Not only do the Golden Knights dominate the year long stats, but this is a team ready to pound someone. Lay it with the host. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-08-21 | Lightning -205 v. Blue Jackets | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
13 Tampa Bay at Columbus The Lightning have lost 5 of 7 games as of late, with back to back losses to Detroit and Columbus. This team needs to right the ship as its about to head to Nashville and face the suddenly competitive Predators. Columbus broke a three game losing streak Tuesday with the 4-2 victory over the Lightning. In that game the Blue Jackets jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead, so Tampa had to play catchup the entire game. In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa Bay ranks 4th and the Blue Jackets 28th. In xG/60 we find the Lightning +0.30 and Columbus -0.44. A sizable advantage for the slumping Lightning. On the Power Play Tampa Bay ranks 3rd and the Blue Jackets 26th. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.06 and Columbus +3.39. You can’t find many wider advantages in this category. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Lightning rank 10th and the Blue Jackets 15th. In xG/60 we find Tampa Bay -4.68 and Columbus -4.84. Despite the high line in this game it is deserved. We get a much superior team with a major chip on its shoulder, vs a team that just embarrassed them two days ago. Lay it with the Lightning. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-08-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -120 | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
16 Winnipeg at Montreal Because the Jets had their two game series with Vancouver postponed because of Covid issues, this team has only played twice this month. The Habs on the other hand are playing its fifth game of the month, and second of a back to back after playing in Toronto last night. In 5x5 action in G+-/60 the Jets rank 13th and the Canadiens 2nd. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -0.34 and the Habs are +0.63, basically a full goal per 60 minutes of 5x5 action. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Jets rank 6th and the Canadiens 15th. In xG/60 Winnipeg is +6.21 and Montreal +6.01. So much closer than the actual goals scored would suggest. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Jets rank 16th and the Habs 12th. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg -6.44 and Montreal -6.07. PLAY MONTREAL |
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04-08-21 | Penguins +111 v. Rangers | 5-2 | Win | 111 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
17 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers The Penguins are playing in their fourth of a six game road trip. They are 2-2 on the season avenging a loss in a two game road series. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Penguins rank 12th and the Rangers 11th. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -0.09 and the Rangers are +0.12. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Pittsburgh ranks 16th and New York 18th. In xG/60 we find the Penguins +5.29 and the Rangers +7.32. A solid advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Penguins rank 23rd and the Rangers 2nd. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -5.44 and New York is -5.45. Virtually equal and a huge difference with the actual goals scored. This is where expected goals provide us with value, as the general fan will only look at the rankings, as opposed to the raw advanced numbers. With Pittsburgh in for major positive regression on the penalty kill, and the Rangers playing well over their heads in the same category, we find value on the avenging road team. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-07-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -112 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10 Arizona at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 20th and the Kings 22nd. In xG/60 we see Arizona at -0.28 and LA at -0.42. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Coyotes are ranked 23rd and the Kings 11th. In xG/60 we find Arizona +4.48 and Los Angeles +6.55. A significant advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 12th and LA 7th. In xG/60 we see the Coyotes at -8.12 and the Kings -6.68. Another nice advantage for the host. After falling behind 3-0 on Monday, the Coyotes never stood a chance. We look for the host to get its revenge Wednesday. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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04-07-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -145 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
4 Montreal at Toronto Two of the best 5x5 G+-/60 squads do battle on Wednesday. Montreal ranks 2nd and Toronto 5th. In xG/60 we find the Habs +0.63 and the Leafs +0.49. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 14th and Toronto 4th. In xG/60 its the Canadiens +6.01 and the Leafs +8.14. A solid advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 14th and Toronto 22nd. In xG/60 we find the Habs -6.07 and the Maple Leafs -4.79. So the regression is in the favor of the host. Cheap line considering how much better the Maple Leafs are in special teams. Lay it with the host. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-06-21 | Sabres +138 v. Devils | 5-3 | Win | 138 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
51 Buffalo at New Jersey In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Buffalo ranks 31st and New Jersey 18th. In xG/60 we see the Sabres at -0.41 and the Devils -0.08. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Sabres rank 16th and the Devils 30th. In xG/60 we see Buffalo +5.39 and the Devils +4.20. A nice advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Buffalo ranks 14th and New Jersey 28th. In xG/60 the Sabres are -6.75 and the Devils -7.46. So while New Jersey has the advantage even strength, the Sabres are better on both special teams. Nice underdog value of the visitor. PLAY BUFFALO |
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04-06-21 | Penguins v. Rangers -113 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
54 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers The Penguins are playing its third straight game of a six game road trip. The Rangers have had two days off after being upset at Buffalo. Both teams rank in the lower half of the league in 5x5 G+-/60. Pittsburgh is 23rd and the Rangers 20th. In xG/60 we find the Penguins -0.09 and the Rangers +0.14. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Pittsburgh ranks 13th and the Rangers 20th. In xG/60 the Penguins are +5.21 and New York +7.19. A sizable advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 New York ranks 4th and Pittsburgh 18th. In xG/60 the Rangers are -5.40 and the Penguins -5.26. The Rangers are the better overall team in our regard, and the scheduling spot is in their favor. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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04-05-21 | Golden Knights -123 v. Blues | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
45 Vegas at St Louis Must win game for the Golden Knights who just dropped three straight at home to the Kings and the Wild. After this two game series with St Louis the schedule gets easier with contests against Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose. The bottom four teams in the division. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Knights rank 8th and the Blues 22nd. In xG/60 Vegas is +0.12 and St Louis -0.18. On the Power Play Vegas ranks 21st and St Louis 11th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Knights +6.23 and the Blues +6.04. So these two are much closer than the actual goals scored would tell. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Vegas ranks 7th and St Louis 25th. In xG/60 the Golden Knights are -5.88 and the Blues -7.89. A huge advantage for the visitor. PLAY VEGAS |
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04-04-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks +117 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
38 Arizona at Anaheim Quick revenge spot for the host who dropped a 4-2 decision to Arizona on Friday. This is the third game of a season high nine game road trip for the Coyotes. In 5x5 play G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 21st and the Ducks 28th. In xG/60 we find Arizona -0.32 and the Ducks -0.36. Basically even which should give the host positive regression. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 25th and Anaheim 31st. In xG/60 it’s +3.98 for the Coyotes and +5.36 for the Ducks. A sizable advantage for the host as they have had poor puck luck on the Power Play. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 10th and the Ducks 26th. In xG/60 Arizona comes in at -8.02 and Anaheim -6.21. Once again a sizable edge for the host, and a major positive regression candidate. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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04-04-21 | Stars v. Hurricanes -163 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
32 Dallas at Carolina This is the fourth game of a six game road trip for the Stars. Carolina is in the midst of its longest home stand of the season. The Hurricanes have lost in regulation just twice all season, one coming yesterday to these Stars. In 5x5 action G+-/60 numbers Dallas ranks 13th and Carolina 9th. In xG/60 we find the Stars +0.24 and the Hurricanes +0.39. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Stars rank 9th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 we see Dallas at +6.43 and Carolina +6.42. Virtually even, and positive regression for Dallas. On the Penalty Kill Dallas ranks 24th and Carolina 6th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Stars are -6.37 and the Hurricanes -4.13, a huge advantage for the host. We played Dallas yesterday and were rewarded with a victory. Today we look for the Hurricanes to even up the weekend series. PLAY CAROLINA |
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04-04-21 | Capitals v. Devils +154 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
28 Washington at New Jersey In 5x5 G+-/60 the Capitals rank 5th and the Devils 18th. In xG/60 Washington is +0.06 and New Jersey -0.10. So the advanced stats show these two much closer at full strength than the ranking would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Washington ranks 12th and New Jersey 29th. In xG/60 we find the Capitals +6.60 and the Devils +4.10. A very significant advantage for the visitor. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 Washington ranks 11th and New Jersey 27th. In xG/60 the Capitals are -5.27 and the Devils -7.28. Another sizable advantage for the visitor. Washington is in the middle of a five game road trip, playing its third game in four days. They have swept the season series against the Devils and this is the last time New Jersey plays them this season. The Capitals also have a major lookahead to a meeting with the Islanders on Tuesday. Those two played Thursday and the Capitals were embarrassed giving up eight goals. Washington just beat New Jersey 2-1 on the second game of a back to back. If you want to talk fat and happy teams this is it. We expect Washington to take the Devils for granted and look past them here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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04-03-21 | Sharks +109 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 109 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
23 San Jose at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Los Angeles 21st. In xG/60 we find the Sharks -0.01 and the Kings -0.41. So luck has been on the side of Los Angeles when skating at full strength. On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 23rd and LA 10th. In xG/60 we see the Sharks +6.65 and the Kings +6.44. So San Jose has played much better than the actual goals scored, LA is in for some negative regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 16th and Los Angeles 6th. But when looking at the advanced metric of xG/60 we find the Sharks -5.53 and the Kings -6.26. So there is likely heavy regression for both these teams. The actual goal scoring numbers have these two rated very equally, but the advanced stats show the wrong team is favored. The Sharks dominated play yesterday against the top goalie of the Kings, we look for more domination tonight. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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04-03-21 | Stars +138 v. Hurricanes | 3-2 | Win | 138 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
15 Dallas at Carolina In 5x5 G+-/60 the Stars rank 10th and the Hurricanes 5th. In xG/60 we find Dallas at +0.30 and Carolina +0.36. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Dallas ranks 13th and Carolina 1st. In xG/60 the Stars are +6.36 and the Hurricanes +6.46. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. Playing short Handed the Stars rank 26th and the Hurricanes 4th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Dallas is -6.09 and Carolina -4.02. The only real differential between these two teams. Is that along with home ice advantage enough to have the Hurricanes this high a favorite? We don’t think so, give us the Stars. PLAY DALLAS |
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04-03-21 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
8 Columbus at Florida In 5x5 G+-/60 Columbus ranks 25th and Florida 12th. When looking at the advanced stats we see the Jackets -0.41 in xG/60 and the Panthers +0.33. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 26th and Florida 8th. In xG/60 the Jackets are +3.50 and the Panthers +7.02. A huge advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 20th and Florida 14th. In xG/60 we see the Jackets -5.01 and the Panthers -5.88. So there is some regression ahead for both these squads. From a scheduling standpoint Florida is in the middle of a four game home stand. Columbus on the other hand is in the middle of six straight on the road, coming off back to back victories over Tampa Bay. We see a fat and happy Blue Jackets team heading into a buzzsaw here. PLAY FLORIDA |
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04-02-21 | Maple Leafs -135 v. Jets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
61 Toronto at Winnipeg The Maple Leafs are the clearly better team and the scheduling situation shows a level playing field. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Leafs rank 7th and the Jets 14th. In xG/60 its Toronto +0.50 and Winnipeg -0.36. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 4th and Winnipeg 5th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.14 and the Jets +6.09. The advanced stat shows Toronto to be far superior than the actual results. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we find Toronto ranking 21st and Winnipeg 16th. In xG/60 the Maple Leafs are -4.75 and the Jets -6.43. So we can look forward to positive regression for Toronto, and negative regression for the host. This should be a dominant game for the Maple Leafs. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-01-21 | Hurricanes -153 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
53 Carolina at Chicago In 5x5 G+-/60 Carolina ranks 9th and Chicago 24th. Looking at the advanced stats of G/60 we see the Hurricanes +0.29 and the Blackhawks at 0.39. That’s a sizable margin for the visitor. Both teams excel on the Power Play in G+-/60 with the Hurricanes ranking 1st and the Hawks 6th. In xG/60 Carolina is +6.48 and Chicago +5.17. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 5th and the Blackhawks 25th. In xG/60 we find Carolina -3.94 and Chicago -5.85. While the number is high for the road favorite, the revenge motive and the advanced stats put us clearly on the Hurricanes. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-31-21 | Maple Leafs -137 v. Jets | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
29 Toronto at Winnipeg In 5x5 G+-/60 the Leafs rank 8th and the Jets 12th. In xG/60 Toronto has a +0.47 to -0.32 advantage. So it’s clear that Winnipeg has had better puck luck that the team really deserves. On the Power Play Toronto ranks 3rd and Winnipeg 5th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we find the Leafs +8.42 and the Jets +6.24. Once again a much wider margin than the actual results would suggest. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 23rd and Winnipeg 18th. In xG/60 the Leafs are -4.83 and the Jets -6.63. Once again Toronto is better than the results show, while Winnipeg has been very fortunate. The schedule also is in the favor of the visitor as Winnipeg returns home off a successful ending to a seven game road trip through Edmonton, Vancouver and Calgary. Toronto is coming off an overtime home loss to Edmonton. The Maple Leafs are clearly superior in every facet of the game, and they catch a tired Jets team running on fumes. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-29-21 | Islanders -108 v. Penguins | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
1 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh Two ways to look at this game. The first is comparing the two teams. That would put us clearly on the Islanders who are much better on 5x5 and the Power Play. The other way to handicap this game is the schedule. The Islanders are playing its fourth straight road game in three different cities. Pittsburgh on the other hand is playing its fifth straight home game. On Saturday Pittsburgh won 6-3, that tied a season worst goals against for New York. With the Penguins coming in off three victories, outscoring the opposition 15 to 5, we will look for talent to win over the spot. PLAY NY ISLANDERS |
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03-28-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks -113 | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
68 Nashville at Chicago Quick rematch for these two. In 5x5 G+-/60 we see Nashville ranked 18th and Chicago 23rd. In xG/60 the Predators are +0.02 and the Blackhawks -0.33. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Nashville ranks 15th and Chicago 7th. In xG/60 we see the Preds at +5.33 and the Hawks +5.44. On the Penalty Kill these are two of the worst teams in the league. Nashville ranking 29th and Chicago 26th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Predators are -6.49 and the Hawks -5.89. Nashville won yesterday but the advanced numbers stated Chicago was the better team. We look for the host to get the best of the Preds tonight. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-28-21 | Devils v. Bruins -180 | 1-0 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
62 New Jersey at Boston In 5x5 G+-/60 the Devils rank 22nd and Boston 16th. In xG/60 it’s New Jersey -0.11 and the Bruins exactly even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find New Jersey ranked 26th and Boston 21st. In xG/60 it’s the Devils +4.18 and the Bruins +5.81. A major advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Jersey ranks 28th and Boston 1st. In xG/60 we see the Devils -7.29 and the Bruins -3.98. Another huge advantage for Boston. While these two are virtually equal when playing 5x5, the Bruins dominate on special teams. The only way the Devils can win this is playing a clean game, something we simply can’t expect. Lay it. PLAY BOSTON |
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03-27-21 | Panthers v. Stars -109 | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
48 Florida at Dallas These two rank 13th and 14th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action. In xG/60 we find Florida +0.39 and Dallas +0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Florida ranks 9th and Dallas 13th. In xG/60 the Panthers are +7.04 and the Stars +6.28. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Stars 22nd. In xG/60 Florida is -5.81 and Dallas -6.37. Florida is playing its fourth and fifth games on this road trip. They have yet to win being outscored by an 11 to 5 margin. Dallas is in the midst of a five game home stand. The season to date numbers show that Florida is the better team, but the Panthers have been struggling. Give us the Stars at home in a nice priced affair. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-27-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes +103 | 3-4 | Win | 103 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
42 Tampa Bay at Carolina In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Tampa ranks 1st and Carolina 9th. In xG/60 the Lightning are +0.30 and the Hurricanes +0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 these are the two highest ranked teams in the league. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.39 and the Hurricanes +6.16. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Tampa ranks 10th and Carolina 5th. In xG/60 the Lightning are -4.64 and the Hurricanes -4.05. Tampa just split on the road at Dallas after an important home victory over Florida on Sunday. Carolina returns home after two wins in Columbus. Our numbers have these two teams rated almost equally, and yet the Hurricanes are a home underdog. Carolina has been beaten in regulation in this building just once all season. In an epic battle give us the home underdog Hurricanes. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-26-21 | Sharks +108 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
29 San Jose at Arizona The Sharks have played very well since opening the season with 12 straight road games. They end the month with 6 of 8 games played at home. The only road games are the two here in Arizona. Arizona is off a shocking upset shootout winner hosting Colorado. In 5x5 play in G+-/60 the Sharks rank 20th and the Coyotes 25th. In xG/60 we find San Jose at -0.07 and Arizona -0.31. On the Power Play in G+-/60 San Jose ranks 22nd and Arizona 25th. In xG/60 the Sharks are +6.38, and the Coyotes +4.00. A major advantage for San Jose. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Sharks are 19th, and Coyotes rank 10th. In xG/60 we find San Jose -5.77, and the Coyotes -8.22. So obviously these two have had far different luck when looking at the advanced stats. Because of that poor puck luck for the Sharks, we find plenty of value on San Jose in this one. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-25-21 | Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
15 Florida at Chicago These two met on Tuesday with the Blackhawks winning 3-2. But that was an obvious let down spot for the Panthers who had beaten Chicago the previous Monday, and were coming off the big showdown loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Panthers rank 10th and the Hawks 23rd. In xG/60 we find Florida at +0.38 and Chicago -0.31. A strong advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play both teams have fared well with Florida ranking 5th and Chicago 7th in G+-/60. In xG/60 we see the Panthers +7.15 and the Blackhawks +5.49. A much bigger discrepancy than the actual goals. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 13th and the Blackhawks 27th. In xG/60 we find Florida -5.78, and Chicago -5.91. Closer than the actual Penalty Killing numbers. Chicago has been a surprise thus far, but Florida is the better team off back to back losses. Give us the Panthers to take this one. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-24-21 | Kings -105 v. Sharks | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
77 Los Angeles at San Jose In 5x5 G+-/60 LA ranks 20th and San Jose 21st. In xG/60 the Kings are -0.44, and the Sharks -0.06. Although the Kings have played much better as of late than early in the season. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Los Angeles ranked 6th and San Jose 22nd. In xG/60 the Kings are +6.61 and the Sharks 6.24. Playing Short Handed in G+-/60 LA ranks 7th and San Jose 18th. In xG/60 the Kings are -6.01 and the Sharks -5.63. So the Sharks are due for some positive regression. The Kings have played three of four at home heading into this quick revenge game at San Jose. They then get the next four days off before heading to Vegas. San Jose has a two game trip to Arizona, before coming home to face the Wild Twice. We were rewarded with a 2-1 Sharks victory the last time these two played. But we thought the Kings were the better team. Coming off that loss and with four days off, it’s imperative LA gets this victory. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-24-21 | Jets v. Canucks +127 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
80 Winnipeg at Vancouver In 5x5 G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 15th and Vancouver 24th. In xG/60 we see the Jets -0.31 and the Canucks -0.46. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Winnipeg ranks 8th and Vancouver 23rd. In xG/60 it’s +5.66 for the Jets, and +5.57 for the Canucks. So these two are much closer than the actual results suggest. On the Penalty Kill we rank in G+-/60 Winnipeg 16th and Vancouver 14th. In xG/60 we find the Jets -6.47 and the Canucks -6.91. So the Jets are due some positive regression. Winnipeg is playing in its fourth game of seven straight on the road. Coming off a 4-0 shutout of these Canucks on Monday. Vancouver doesn’t play again until next Wednesday hosting Calgary. With Winnipeg on a long road trip, with three games against Calgary on deck. This is a great spot to fade the tired visitor. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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03-24-21 | Flames -167 v. Senators | 1-3 | Loss | -167 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
69 Calgary at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Calgary ranking 17th and Ottawa 30th. In xG/60 the Flames are +0.08, and the Sens -0.29. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Calgary ranks 17th and Ottawa 28th. In xG/60 the Flames are +4.99 and the Senators +5.33. So positive regression is coming for the Sens. On the Penalty Kill Calgary ranks 15th and Ottawa 23rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Flames are -5.75, and the Senators -6.06. Calgary coming into this series had played Montreal twice, Edmonton twice and Toronto twice. On deck they have three games hosting Winnipeg. This is a great spot to avenge the 2-1 Tuesday loss. Ottawa is in the midst of five of six home games, including facing Toronto here tomorrow. The Sens had a huge scheduling advantage on Tuesday after having the four previous days off. That’s not the case here playing three games in four days. PLAY CALGARY |
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03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars +156 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
66 Tampa Bay at Dallas In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa Bay ranks 1st and Dallas 13th. In xG/60 it’s the Lightning +0.32 and the Stars +0.31. Virtually even. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Lightning rank 3rd and the Stars 14th. In xG/60 Tampa is +6.40, and Dallas +6.08. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Tampa Bay ranks 8th and Dallas 21st. In xG/60 we find the Lightning -4.40 and the Stars -6.39. A hugh advantage for the visitor. Tampa Bay has already beaten Dallas twice this month on the road, and all three meetings this season. They are coming in off an impressive 5-3 win over Florida. The only other good team they face this month is at Carolina after this two game slate. The Lightning are a really good team but have been feasting on weak opposition. With this series sandwiched between Florida and Carolina, we can see Tampa Bay overlooking the Stars here. Off three straight home losses we expect a supreme effort from the host. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators -150 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
64 Detroit at Nashville In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Detroit ranks 25th and Nashville 27th. In xG/60 the Red Wings are -0.41 and the Preds -0.07. A sizable edge for the host, along with positive regression. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we find Detroit 30th and Nashville 19th. The Red Wings in xG/60 are +4.79 and the Predators +5.41. On the Penalty Kill these are the two worst teams in the league in G+-/60. The Wings rank 31st and the Preds 30th. In xG/60 we see Detroit -7.01 and Nashville -6.85. Detroit is really playing good hockey this month, but upon closer look all the success has been at home. The Red Wings have only played two road games all month, losing both by a combined score of 9-3. Detroit is only 3-11 on the road all season. Nashville returns home after eight straight games on the road. While that doesn’t provide us with a positive scheduling spot, keep in mind it will be a major step down in opposition. The Preds went to Carolina for two, Tampa Bay for two, Florida for two and Dallas for a single game. Must have spot for the host here. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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03-23-21 | Devils +142 v. Flyers | 4-3 | Win | 142 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
57 New Jersey at Philadelphia In 5x5 play in G+-/60 Jersey ranks 20th and Philadelphia 28th. In xG/60 the Devils are -0.15 and the Flyers -0.10. Virtually equal. On the Power Play we find in G+-/60 the Devils rank 28th and the Flyers 20th. In xG/60 New Jersey is +3.67 and Philadelphia +5.37. A huge advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 these are two of the weakest teams in the league. The Devils rank 29th and the Flyers 27th. In xG/60 New Jersey is -7.06 and the Flyers -6.96. The Devils had a five game home stand and then played at Pittsburgh on Sunday. They upset the Penguins 2-1 in an afternoon overtime contest. After this game they travel to Washington and Boston, so this is a must win game for the visitor. Philadelphia is 1-4 at home this month, including a 2-1 overtime loss to the Islanders yesterday. They are 2-7 at home since the beginning of February. No way we want any part of this disappointing team in the favorites role. Give us the Devils at a nice plus price. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-22-21 | Kings v. Sharks -123 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
56 Los Angeles at San Jose In 5x5 G+-/60 LA ranks 19th and the Sharks 24th. In xG/60 we find the Kings -0.45 and San Jose -0.08. A clear advantage for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Los Angeles ranks 5th and San Jose 20th. In xG/60 we see the Kings +6.77 and the Sharks +6.46. Much closer than the actual goals suggest. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Kings rank 7th and the Sharks rank 19th. In xG/60 LA is -6.19 and San Jose -5.74. Once again the Sharks are the team that suggests positive regression. The Kings just played a near perfect game in knocking off the Golden Knights yesterday. Now after being home since the 15th, they have to take to the road. San Jose has been home since the 18th, and are coming off back to back home losses to St Louis. With the extra day to prepare we like the Sharks tonight. PLAY SAN JOSEÂ |
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03-22-21 | Hurricanes -154 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
41 Carolina at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 the Hurricanes rank 10th and the Blue Jackets 21st. In xG/60 we find Carolina +0.31 and Columbus -0.42. A sizable edge for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Carolina ranks 1st and Columbus 26th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.45 and the Jackets +3.73, a huge advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Canes are ranked 4th and the Jackets 21st. In xG/60 Carolina is -4.36 and Columbus -5.27. It’s clear Carolina is the better team here, but also the more motivated after losing three straight including two hosting these Jackets. With Tampa Bay on Saturday, it’s imperative Carolina gets those two games back in Columbus. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-20-21 | Jets +124 v. Oilers | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
27 Winnipeg at Edmonton In 5x5 action G+-/60 the Jets rank 17th and the Oilers are 13th. In xG/60 we find Winnipeg -0.32 and Edmonton +0.08. Both teams have done well on the Power Play with Winnipeg ranking 8th and Edmonton 4th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Jets are +5.67 and the Oilers +8.08. A strong advantage for the host. Playing Short Handed Winnipeg ranks 16th and Edmonton 20th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Jets are -6.62 and the Oilers -7.91. A strong advantage to the visitor. 6-2 current run for the Oilers, as both teams are playing its third game in four days. While the numbers say Edmonton should take this one, the line is just too high to ignore the quality visitor. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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03-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -184 | 3-2 | Loss | -184 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
18 Columbus at Carolina In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blue Jackets rank 21st and the Hurricanes 11th. In xG/60 we see Columbus -0.38 and Carolina +0.28. A sizable edge for the host. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Columbus ranks 26th and the Hurricanes 1st. In xG/60 Columbus is +3.73 and Carolina +6.56. A huge advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we see Columbus with a 22nd rank and Carolina 5th. In xG/60 it’s -5.36 for the Jackets and -4.37 for the Hurricanes. Columbus has dropped seven straight games in the second of a two game series. With Carolina off back to back losses, look for a supreme effort on Saturday. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-20-21 | Blackhawks +210 v. Lightning | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
9 Chicago at Tampa Bay In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blackhawks rank 23rd and the Lightning 3rd. In xG/60 we see Chicago at -0.30 and Tampa Bay +0.28. On the Power Play Chicago ranks 7th and the Lightning 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 Chicago is +5.30 and Tampa Bay is +6.51. No more pronounced that just looking at the rating. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Chicago ranks 28th and Tampa Bay is 6th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -5.93 and the Lightning -4.14. Another nice edge for the host. Chicago has dropped three straight on this road trip against two of the best in the central. After playing Dallas twice, Chicago five times, Detroit twice and Nashville twice, the Bolts host Florida tomorrow. We can see Tampa Bay taking this game for granted, it’s a terrible spot for the host. Worth a shot on the Blackhawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-20-21 | Penguins -148 v. Devils | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
3 Pittsburgh at New Jersey In 5x5 in G+-/60 the Penguins rank 12th and the Devils 20th. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -0.13 and New Jersey -0.17. Looking at the Power Play success we see the Penguins ranking 22nd and the Devils 27th. In xG/60 we see Pittsburgh +5.10 and New Jersey +3.73. A sizable advantage for the visitor. Neither team has done well on the Penalty Kill in G+-/60. Pittsburgh is -5.52 in xG/60 and Jersey is -7.29. A sizable advantage for the visitor. Pittsburgh is in the midst of five games against Jersey and Buffalo. After losing on Thursday 3-2, we expect the Penguins to come out fired up on Saturday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings +149 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
76 Vegas at Los Angeles In 5x5 G+-/60 Vegas ranks 6th and LA 19th. In xG/60 the Knights are +0.11 and the Kings -0.41. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Knights rank 21st and the Kings 6th. In xG/60 Vegas is +6.80 and Los Angeles is +6.78. So the Knights are due for some positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 both teams have fared well with the Knights ranking 7th and the Kings 10th. In xG/60 we find Vegas at -5.96 and Los Angeles -6.10. Vegas has won four straight games since losing back to back contests to the Wild. After this two game series they face St Louis and Colorado twice, three games more important than beating the Kings. After coming back on Wednesday to beat the Sharks in a physical battle, you can see the visitor overlooking Los Angeles here. This line is simply too high not to take a chance on the Kings. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-18-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks +126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 126 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
66 Arizona at Anaheim In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Arizona ranking 27th and Anaheim at 29th. In xG/60 the Coyotes are -0.28 and the Ducks -0.39. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Arizona ranks 24th and Anaheim 31st. In xG/60 the Coyotes are +4.09 and the Ducks +5.50. So Anaheim is due for some positive regression. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Coyotes rank 9th and the Ducks 25th. In xG/60 we find Arizona -8.32 and Anaheim -6.15. Once again the host is in for a large regression. It’s rare to find a significant road favorite with these terrible advanced stats. Time to step out with a Best Bet on the host. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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03-17-21 | Canucks v. Senators +130 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
36 Vancouver at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 the ranking show Vancouver 24th and Ottawa 30th. In xG/60 we see the Canucks at -0.46 and the Senators -0.31. So Ottawa is better than the year to date numbers show. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Canucks rank 23rd and the Senators rank 27th. In xG/60 Vancouver is +5.72 and Ottawa is +5.47. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 we see Vancouver ranking 15th and Ottawa 25th. In xG/60 the Canucks are -7.06 and the Senators are -6.01. A nice advantage for the host. Ottawa is a very inconsistent team. Getting blown out or winning in close fashion. Their numbers are worse because of this. But we are only looking for the winner here, they don’t have to win by a margin. Because of that there is plenty of value on the home underdog. PLAY OTTAWA |
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03-16-21 | Islanders -102 v. Capitals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
25 NY Islanders at Washington Looking to back the red hot Islanders in this one. Washington played last night at Buffalo, so its the second of a back to back situation. But more importantly Washington is winning lately but against some of the lesser teams in the division, Buffalo, New Jersey and Philadelphia. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Islanders rank 3rd and the Capitals 7th. In xG/60 we find NY at +0.51 and Washington at +0.10. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Islanders rank 17th and the Capitals 11th. Looking at xG/60 NY is +6.87 and Washington +6.35. So positive regression is on the side of the visitor. Looking at the Penalty Kill we see the Islanders 7th and the Capitals 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 NY is -5.48 and Washington -5.22. Slightly better for the host. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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03-15-21 | Canadiens v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
13 Montreal at Winnipeg In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Montreal ranking 1st and Winnipeg 15th. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +0.56 and the Jets -0.34. So a substantial advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play the Canadiens rank 12th and the Jets 10th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Montreal is +5.88, and Winnipeg +5.66. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 10th and Winnipeg 16th. In xG/60 we find the Canadiens -6.07, and the Jets -6.23. The line on this game is about where we made it, but the total has our interest. This Montreal team is the best in the league scoring 5x5. Both teams have done well offensively, with neither very proficient on the penalty kill. Let’s look for a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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03-15-21 | Flyers v. Rangers +100 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
8 Philadelphia at NY Rangers In 5x5 in G+-/60 Philadelphia ranks 20th and the Rangers 16th. In xG/60 we find the Flyers at -0.06 and the Rangers at +0.16. On the Power Play Philadelphia ranks 16th in G+-/60, and NY 26th. In xG/60 the Flyers are +5.55 and the Rangers +6.29. So there is some positive regression coming for the host. On the Penalty Kill the Flyers rank 28th and the Rangers 4th in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we see Philadelphia -7.06 and NY -5.38. All positive numbers for the host, and yet this game is lines as a coin flip. We are stepping out with a strong play on the Rangers here. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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03-14-21 | Maple Leafs -241 v. Senators | 3-4 | Loss | -241 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
63 Toronto at Ottawa In 5x5 G+-/60 Toronto ranks 7th and Ottawa 31st. In xG/60 the Leafs are +0.37 and the Sens -0.33. Basically a .7 goal advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play we find Toronto ranking 2nd and Ottawa 27th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.91, and the Senators +5.36. A huge advantage for Toronto. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Toronto ranks 24th and the Sens 27th. In xG/60 Toronto is -4.66 and Ottawa -6.09. A much larger advantage than the actual rankings show. So we expect positive regression for the Maple Leafs. All things considered Toronto is far superior is basically every situation. Hard to say a road favorite is underrated in this price range, but in this instance it is. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-14-21 | Islanders v. Devils +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
60 NY Islanders at New Jersey In 5x5 G+-/60 NY ranks 3rd and NJ 21st. In xG/60 we find the Islanders +0.49 and the Devils -0.12. Looking at the Power Play in G+-/60 we see the Islanders at 15th and the Devils ranking 29th. In xG/60 NY is +6.50 and NJ +3.71. A strong advantage for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill the Islanders rank 3rd and the Devils 29th in G+-/60. Looking at the advanced stats NY is -5.43 and Jersey is -7.20. The Islanders have been hot, but they have been feasting on the bottom teams in the division. After this game the schedule gets must tougher for the visitor. While its clear New Jersey doesn’t have the talent of the Islanders, this team has been losing a lot of one goal games to elite teams. The spot favors the host and we think this game goes down to the wire. Let’s take the Devils +1 1/2 here to cash this ticket. PLAY NEW JERSEY +1 1/2 |
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