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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
499 Ohio State & Alabama We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here. PLAY OVER |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
327 Cincinnati & Georgia Plenty of reasons to back the Bearcats here. This is an undefeated team with a chance to play a top team from the SEC. Cincinnati feels they were slighted by the selection committee and have something to prove. Georgia on the other hand did not have dreams before the season to be playing in this game. Their expectations were much higher. Throw in the fact that many of the top players for the Bulldogs are sitting out in preparation for the draft. And we have a team likely not fully focused on the contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
283 Liberty & Coastal Carolina in Orlando Short and sweet. Our numbers have this as a four point advantage with the favorite. A one point loss cost Liberty its own undefeated season. And because of the national press Coastal has gotten, this line is inflated. Liberty has the ability to run the football extremely well and keep the opposition at bay. This game goes down to the final possession. PLAY LIBERTY |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
232 Oklahoma & Iowa State in Arlington Since Matt Campbell has come to Ames the Cyclones have fared well against the Sooners. Earlier this year Iowa State won 37-30, as a 7.5 point underdog. Last year as a 14.5 point underdog they lost by a single point. In 2018 Iowa State was an 18.5 point underdog and only lost by 10. In 2017 the Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 as a whopping 31 point underdog. In 2016 Iowa State lost by 10 while getting 20.5 points. That’s a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by 85 combined points. When looking at Phil Steele’s average game grades the Sooners should only be a 2.7 point favorite. Under Matt Campbell the Cyclones are 18-8 ATS as an underdog. Give us the better coached team catching points in a series they have dominated ATS. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
130 Boise State at Wyoming The Broncos have dominated this series winning 13 of 14 meetings. But last years game went to overtime, and this line is simply too high. Tough to back a road favorite who is being outgained 4.6 yards per carry to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. Despite the 4-1 record Boise State has given up seven first downs more than they have obtained. This is a big play offense that is taking on a stop unit that allows just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming the past four games have permitted just 92, 158, 255 and 110 yards through the air. This is also just the second home game of the season for the Cowboys. The last five seasons Wyoming is 21-6 straight up at War Memorial Stadium. A win here extends the Cowboys non-losing seasons streak to five years, that’s important in these trying times. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State -14.5 | Top | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 117 h 45 m | Show |
392 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartan running attack has been pathetic all season averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Only once has this team broken the 4 ypc barrier, and that was 4.1 ypc against Northwestern. The passing game was adequate the first two games but since then this team has thrown for 180, 167, 131 and 227 yards. In those last four games the Spartans have totaled 48 total points, just 12 per game. Now it takes on a rejuvenated Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions lost the turnover battle in each of its first five games. Tough to win and cover when you can’t hold on to the football. But the last two games turnovers were even and Penn State won both contests by a combined score of 50-24. On the season the Nittany Lions have a whopping +87 first down advantage when compared to the Spartans. This team made every mistake imaginable early, but the talent is now shining through. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-05-20 | Alabama -28.5 v. LSU | 55-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
441 Alabama at LSU Major revenge game for the Tide as it lost to the eventual national champions 46-41 last year as a 6.5 point favorite. Alabama had won the past seven meetings including a 29 point victory the prior year. From a game score perspective the Tide should be a 27 point favorite, but there has never been any love between these two coaches. Alabama has the offense to score on every possession, and Saban has no qualms about adding on an additional score late. The Tigers simply don’t have the horses to keep this interesting. PLAY ALABAMA |
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12-05-20 | Texas v. Kansas State +7.5 | 69-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
414 Texas at Kansas State The Wildcats have cashed four straight years against the Longhorns, and are 17-4 ATS in the role of a home underdog. The is a club that hasn’t lost in the home dog role under Chris Klieman. With a 4-5 record this is a very important game for this Manhattan program. The loss last week to Iowa State looks like it will cost Tom Herman his job. He came into Austin with much promise, but the team is only 30-18 under his direction. His teams have had a losing spread record each and every year when made a favorite. Texas only has two wins this year larger than the current line, a blowout win over UTEP and an 11 point victory hosting Baylor. This Texas team isn’t good enough to win on the road by margin. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
327 Louisiana Lafayette at Appalachian State This is the game the Ragin’ Cajuns have had circled all year. Billy Napier has yet to beat App State in his three years in Lafayette, and this team was built to change that outcome. With two losses in the Sun Belt Championship by 7 and 11 points. That’s five straight defeats in three years in this matchup, and eight straight losses overall. But our numbers have Lafayette being the slightly better team this year. Both teams have terrific running games, which rank evenly. But we really like how the visitor has played as of late. The last four games Louisiana has produced 511, 506, 440 and 614 yards. Averaging just under 45 points per game. We make this game a toss up, and getting points is a nice bonus. PLAY LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE |
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12-03-20 | Air Force -11 v. Utah State | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
325 Air Force at Utah State Huge edge for the Falcons here if you look at game grades. The lowest score of the season was 83.5 at San Jose State, while Utah State is averaging 70.1 on the season. So if Air Force matches its worst game, this line would make sense. Fortunately we expect a much better outcome for the Falcons here. Obviously Air Force wants to run the football, with a 5.8 ypc on the season. Utah State allows 5.1 ypc on the year. The Aggies have really struggled getting off the field, allowing 64 more first downs than they create. That’s not what you want to see when facing a team that runs the ball down your throat. Look for this game to be competitive early, but for the visitor to wear out the Aggies as the game progresses. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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11-28-20 | Texas Tech +11 v. Oklahoma State | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
221 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State The Red Raiders have cashed four straight in this series by margins of 20, 38.5, 3.5 and 11 points. Although just 1-8 SU on the road under Matt Wells, we like the matchup here for the visitor. Oklahoma State started the season on fire, winning four straight before losing to Texas 41-34. Since that defeat the Cowboys have been outgained by Kansas State by 115 yards, and Oklahoma by 246 yards. In fact, the Sooners actually doubled the Oklahoma State yardage. These two clubs are much closer in talent than this number says, give us the Red Raiders plus the points. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-28-20 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan -19 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
198 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan The Husky defense hasn’t shown any semblance of stopping the opposition thus far. Allowing point totals of 49, 40 and 31 points in three straight losses. Northern is being outgained on the ground by 2.1 yards per attempt, as this team is losing the battle in the trenches badly. Western has scored 58, 41 and 52 points in its three contests. Producing yardage totals of 484, 437 and 628. The Bronco defense is the weakness allowing 4.8 yards per carry, but the Huskies haven’t shown any ability to run the football and shorten the game. Add in the fact that the host is playing with revenge for a 17-14 season ending loss as a 9 point favorite. And we have a fired up squad that can name the score. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-21-20 | Boise State -14 v. Hawaii | 40-32 | Loss | -107 | 104 h 9 m | Show | |
423 Boise State at Hawaii The last three meetings were dominated by the Broncos, winning by margins of 21, 36 and 55 points. Many teams treat the trip to the islands as a vacation, but that won’t happen in the COVID era. Coming off seasons in which the Broncos won 12, 10, 11 and 10 games, the only blemish was a 51-17 beatdown at the hands of BYU. And we know now how good the Cougars are this year. We get a bit of line value here as the special teams, a major strength that has gone mostly unnoticed in betting markets. Hawaii has struggled when stepping up in class, losing to Wyoming by 24 and San Diego State by 24. The Warriors are in a really tough part of the schedule having just faced San Diego State, and having Nevada and San Jose State on deck. Boise State has been at it’s best in the role of road favorite. Posting a 35-17 spread mark over the past decade plus. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-21-20 | Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 66.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
357 Indiana at Ohio State The Hoosiers haven’t ran for more than 3.1 yards per carry in any game this season, averaging just 2.6 ypc on the year. As a three touchdown underdog Tom Allen knows the only way to complete with the Buckeyes is to put the ball in the air. Say what you want about the offenses of Michigan and Michigan State, but those are still good defensive teams. And Indiana produced 342 and 320 yards against them. Defensively Indiana has yet to play an offense with a legit quarterback. This week they may be playing the Heisman Trophy Winner. Ohio State can and will score on everyone. Putting up point totals of 52, 38 and 49 points this season. With Wisconsin on deck we can see the starters leaving the game early. That said the Buckeyes are dominant in recruiting and the young players will likely be favored over the Indiana starters. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico +10 v. Air Force | 0-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
329 New Mexico at Air Force The new DC for the Lobos this year is Rocky Long. He was the head coach here for eleven years, and was the man in charge of San Diego State the past eight seasons. At SDST the Air Force was held to 24 points or less the past three meetings. So far at New Mexico the Lobos are permitting just 3.1 yards per carry. A far cry from the 4.3 ypc New Mexico permitted last year. The weakness for the Lobos is defending the pass, but Air Force has only completed 17 passes in three games. New Mexico has cashed 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Falcons. We feel this line is just too high to back the favorite. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
312 Toledo at Eastern Michigan The Eagles have played Toledo virtually equal the past three seasons, despite playing two of those games on the road. In 2017 as a 13.5 point underdog Eastern lost by only five points. In 2018 Eastern won outright 28-26 as a 1.5 point underdog. Last year at Toledo the game went to overtime in a 37-34 loss as a 3.5 point underdog. In fact, the Eagles have covered each of the past four years. This despite the Rockets winning nine more games than the Eagles overall during that timeframe. Â Eastern Michigan is a tremendous underdog under Chris Creighton. Posting a 24-4-1 record when catching points the last 4+ seasons. With the Eagles coming in 0-2, we look for this to be a circled game for the host. The Rockets are only 3-9 straight up on the road as of late, including a last second loss at Western Michigan a week ago. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo -31 v. Bowling Green | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
303 Buffalo at Bowing Green The best vs the worst in the Mid-American Conference face off tonight. The last two seasons the Bulls won by margins of 42 and 30 points, and this year the talent level is even greater. Explosiveness and finishing drives is the key to this handicap. Buffalo should be able to name the score with a passing explosiveness rate ranking of 7th in the country, against a Falcons pass defensive rating of 125th. The Bulls are also 1st in the country in power success rate, so the running game should move the chains regularly. The visitor ranks 10th in the nation in finishing drives, while BG ranks 124th defending that category. Bowling Green is 122nd in passing success while the Bulls defend at a 11th ranked clip. Finishing drives is also a struggle for BG ranking 125th while Buffalo is 17th defensively. With no lookahead in sight for the Bulls we expect this to be wire to wire domination. Let’s fade one of the two worst teams in the country as Buffalo wins in impressive fashion. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
179 Nevada & New Mexico in Las Vegas This game has been moved to Las Vegas because of the high cover counts in New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have looked impressive out of the gate with Impressive wins over Wyoming, UNLV and Utah State. They outgained the opposition in those contests by a total of 616 yards. The passing game has produced 420, 350 and 421 yards. Over the past five seasons Nevada has faced New Mexico three times. Covering by margins of 7 1/2, 6 and 13 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack just played in this building two weeks ago, which should be a sizable advantage. Head Coach Jay Norvell is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite. New Mexico has posted a combined record of 8-30 straight up the past three plus seasons. With this game being moved, this will be the third of five straight games away from Albuquerque. The Lobos pass defense has been horrendous thus far, allowing 891 passing yards in two games. The opposition is completing 73.1% of its passes. With Nevada QB Carson Strong coming in with a 9 to 0 TD to INT ratio, as well as an outstanding 171.7 quarterback rating. This looks like a long night for this Lobos stop unit. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-14-20 | Louisville +3 v. Virginia | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
225 Louisville at Virginia This is the rescheduled game from a week ago which was postponed because of covid. Two weeks ago the Cardinals had nine players sit out the Virginia Tech game because of the virus, but the entire team has tested negative heading into this week. The Cardinals fought hard in a 42-35 loss to the Hokies, and are really looking forward to getting back on the field. Louisville has won f of the last 5 meetings in this series, including an outright underdog victory a year ago. Despite the 2-5 record coming into this game, having an extra week to prepare should really help Scott Satterfield in his second season. There is only one team in this matchup with big play ability, and that’s the Cardinals. In seven games the offense has produced 45 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing just 31. Virginia on the other hand in six games have produced just 19 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing a whopping 44. While Louisville enters this contest off a loss, the Cavaliers pulled a major upset of North Carolina last time out. That despite allowing 443 yards through the air to the Tar Heels. In the Virginia victories this season the Cavaliers have a +5 turnover advantage. Without the turnover edge this team has yet to taste victory. With Louisville dominating recent play, off a loss, and having a huge explosive play advantage, we will back the visitor. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 136 h 50 m | Show |
142 TCU at West Virginia The Horned Frogs need to run the football to be effective. They are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The passing game has struggled all year including managing just 73 yards last week hosting Texas Tech. Unfortunately they are going up against a West Virginia defense allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are even better against the pass, holding every team to 230 yards or less. Including 6 of 7 opponents to less than 190 yards. West Virginia is undefeated at home this season. They have covered by margins of 16 1/2, 23 1/2, 6 and 17 1/2 the last four years against TCU. The Mountaineers have the more complete offense and the better defense. This is always a tough place to play, especially for TCU who have been outscored the last two visits here by a combined score of 81-20. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
164 Indiana at Michigan State The Hoosiers are now highly ranked after its blowout victory over Michigan. Now a perfect 3-0 on the young season. But when breaking down the Indiana games we see that they are being outgained per play 5.28 yards to 4.71 yards. The three teams they have beaten are a combined 2-4 straight up when not facing Indiana. When looking at turnover rates we see Indiana at +6 while Michigan State is -7. Regressing works in the favor of the home dog here. Both teams played Rutgers and Michigan. Indiana won both games with a combined yardage advantage of 199. Michigan State split with a yardage advantage of 90. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 games between these two clubs. Indiana also has a major lookahead with a trip to Ohio State on deck. We are not buying into the Hoosier hype. Take the points with the Spartans. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH +8.5 v. Buffalo | 10-42 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
111 Miami Ohio at Buffalo The Redhawks have won eight straight games decided by a touchdown or less. Chuck Martin since coming to Oxford has an outstanding 27-18 spread record as an underdog. Miami has beaten Buffalo 3 of the last 4 meetings including a 34-20 win last year as a two point underdog. Buffalo is expected to be the class of this conference, along with Western Michigan and Toledo. But the Redhawks are being undervalued in our eyes. This team returned 17 players from a MAC Championship squad, and the offense looks much better than a year ago. As we have seen many times this season, having a coaching staff that knows how to win close games is a blessing. Look for the Redhawks to be in this game throughout. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-07-20 | Clemson -5.5 v. Notre Dame | 40-47 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
401 Clemson at Notre Dame When you have elite talent and elite coaching, sometimes it’s hard to get motivated. That has been the case with the Tigers this year. The Tigers had just one game so far that drew any type of interest, and it resulted in a 25 point victory over Miami Florida. After a 73-7 blowout of Georgia Tech the team looked disinterested the past two games. Now with a full game of reps for this highly touted freshman quarterback, we once again see the Tigers with something to play for. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is 3-11 SU lifetime vs Top 10 opposition. Every time this team steps up it gets knocked back down by better coached teams. The speed differential in this game is huge, and the Irish have really struggled against better athletes. With Clemson coming in off two poor performances, we look for Dabo and company to lay the wood here. PLAY CLEMSON |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 45 h 21 m | Show | |
350 Michigan State at Iowa Great time to fade the Spartans after Mel Tucker’s biggest win of his coaching career. For a team like Michigan State, a win over either Michigan or Ohio State is a major accomplishment. Keep in mind the prior five games against those two resulted in losses by 34, 24, 20, 14 and 45 points. The Spartans have a brutal schedule remaining including Northwestern, Ohio State and Penn State. They were 0-3 ATS as a road dog a year ago. Iowa enters this game 0-2 on the season, but they outgained both Purdue and Northwestern. Two teams we have rated much better than this Michigan State squad. The last five plus years Iowa is 27-9 SU in Kinnick Stadium. In what will be a defensive battle we prefer the Hawkeyes with their backs to the wall. PLAY IOWA |
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11-07-20 | Tulane v. East Carolina +4 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
318 Tulane at East Carolina The Pirates have won 8 of the last 9 meetings in Greenville, with the lone loss coming in overtime. After losing a game because of a terrible officials call, we expect the Pirates to play fired up football on Saturday. This is a team that has played with great heart this season after two separate Covid outbreaks. According to the coaching staff the team has had its best practice of the season this week. Despite the 1-2 record the past three games, East Carolina outgained all three opponents. Tulane is coming off a 38-3 blowout of Temple. This is a letdown spot for Tulane after facing the likes of UCF, SMU and Houston the previous three games before the Temple win. The Green Wave is on a current 3-8 SU run on the road. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +7 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 137 h 25 m | Show |
377 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings including two straight in Texas, both in the underdog role. Coming into this contest 0-2 on the road this season, makes sure Neal Brown and the coaching staff will have this team ready. QB Jarret Doege has an impressive 11 to 3 TD to INT ratio, and the running game has been solid. Defensively West Virginia is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, and have 9 interceptions to 7 touchdowns allowed. Texas beat Oklahoma State a week ago, but only had a 3% chance of victory at the end of the game. In other words they were very lucky. Getting outgained 530 to 287 in yardage. The Longhorns took advantage of a +4 turnover edge. Texas has only produced one passing game of over 290 yards on the season, that was the opener against UTEP. Without having success through the air we see no way this host gets past this number. Keep in mind Texas is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite under Tom Herman. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming -3 v. Colorado State | 24-34 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
305 Wyoming at Colorado State The Rams have dropped four straight to rival Wyoming, scoring just 58 points in the process. After four and three win seasons Colorado State hired former Boston College head coach Steve Addazio. We’ve never been a fan of the conservative Addazio, with his BC team averaging less than 30 points per game all but one of his seven seasons in Chestnut Hill. The Rams have played just one game, a 38-17 loss to a questionable Fresno State squad. This team has gone just 5-10 straight up at Canvas Stadium as of late. Wyoming has two games under its belt, winning big against Hawaii and taking Nevada to the wire. Craig Bohl is our favorite coach in this conference, and he has a 33-21 spread record his last for plus years in Laramie. Other than Boise State and Nevada, the Cowboys are the best of the bunch in the Mountain West. After dropping six straight games on the road, you can bet Bohl has his team ready. PLAY WYOMING |
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11-04-20 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -22 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
292 Bowling Green at Toledo How bad has it been for the Falcons to keep a talented quarterback? James Morgan transferred to FIU, Jarret Doege is now the starter at West Virginia, and last years QB Grant Loy is sitting the bench for Auburn. Junior Matt McDonald will be the signal caller this year after throwing eight passes the last two seasons at Boston College. The two deep chart features nine true freshmen and seven redshirt freshmen. Bowling Green had three victories a year ago. Beating FCS entrant Morgan State, Winless Akron, and a 20-7 upset win over these Rockets. Last year was the first time in over a decade the Rockets didn’t have a winning record. Toledo started the year losing to a solid Kentucky team, then reeled off four straight victories before the BG upset loss. That game completely turned around the Toledo season, so we know Jason Candle has circled this game for the hosts. The Rockets return 14 starters and have a much more veteran team than the Falcons. This should get ugly. PLAY TOLEDO |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
125 Charlotte at Duke Big game for Will Healy and the 49ers who get the rare opportunity of taking on in-state rival Duke. QB Chris Reynolds had an excellent QB rating a year ago at 153.6, and he’s picked right back up this year. Duke has shot themselves in the foot all season when it comes to turnovers. Losing 10 of 13 fumbles and throwing 12 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. The team passer rating is only 106.68 on the year. Chase Brice, the Clemson transfer has been a major disappointment. Charlotte takes care of the football with only three turnovers on the season. Can’t see the Blue Devils getting right against this well coached veteran Charlotte team. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-31-20 | Rice +1.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
155 Rice at Southern Miss Rice showed a great deal of heart in losing to Middle Tennessee State in overtime a week ago. It was the first game action of the season for the Owls, who started slowly as expected. But after adjusting to the game speed it was clear Rice was the better team. Now after the quadruple doink field goal miss, we expect the Owls to bounce back big time on Saturday. Southern Miss is down to its third head coach this season. As Scotty Walden took a step down in our opinion to take the Austin Peay job. If your interim coach would bale in the middle of a season, what does that tell you about this job. Enough said, go Owls! PLAY RICE |
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10-30-20 | East Carolina +17 v. Tulsa | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
107 East Carolina at Tulsa The Pirates were missing key players last time out against Navy, but should be close to full strength on Friday. QB Holton Ahlers returns, as well as key players Tank Robinson and Darius Pinnix. Tulsa has been a major surprise this season under Philip Montgomery with a 2-1 record including an upset at Central Florida. But keep in mind this team won two games in 2017, three in 2018 and only four last year. Just a year ago the Golden Hurricane permitted 31 points per game, and this year brought back only four defensive starters. In a small sample Tulsa has looked great, but how much of this improvement can we count on. East Carolina has an extra week to prepare, is off a loss, and are looking to avenge a 25 point loss to Tulsa in the season finale last year. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati +2.5 v. SMU | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
347 Cincinnati at SMU Big three weeks for the Bearcats who play the Mustangs, Memphis and Houston. Luke Fickell has done a terrific job here off back to back 11 win seasons. This defense allowed 20.6 points per game a year ago and brought back nine starters. After three games Cincinnati has intercepted 7 passes while allowing exactly zero passing touchdowns. SMU and former Texas standout Shane Buechele lead a strong passing game for the Mustangs. But this team hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Bearcats. Cincinnati is currently ranked in the Top 10. In Sonny Dykes career his teams are 0-7 SU vs Top 10 and 4-17 SU vs Top 25 opposition. We will back the Bearcats here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-24-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Rice -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
394 Middle Tennessee at Rice Strange scheduling situation here as the Blue Raiders will be playing its 7th game of the season, while the Owls play their first. Middle Tennessee has been a major disappointment this year and the coaching staff is talking about how beat up this team is. The second half last week showed this team to be fading fast as the end couldn’t come fast enough. Rice is expected to be much improved this third year under Mike Bloomgren. The Owls finished last year with three straight wins against this Blue Raiders team, North Texas and UTEP. Rice was catching 14 against Middle Tennessee a year ago, winning 31-28. Let’s back the fresh team here to continue its uptick. PLAY RICE |
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10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show |
339 Rutgers at Michigan State What does it say about this Michigan State program that it replaced a legend in Mark Dantonio, with Mel Tucker who went 5-7 in his only head coaching job a year ago at Colorado. The same 5-7 record the Buffaloes had in each of the two prior seasons. The Spartans averaged only 22 points per game in 2019, and still haven’t announced who the starting quarterback is. Defensively Michigan State only brings back three starters, so questions abound all over this roster. Greg Schiano is back in his familiar territory of New Brunswick. He started here in 2001 and left after the 2011 season. He has a winning record with the Knights, 68-67 in his previous tenure. That’s enough to celebrate his return to New Jersey. The Scarlet Knights added some big transfers including QN Noah Vedral from Nebraska. Overall 16 starters return to what looks to be a far more physical squad. Rutgers is also looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout in its final home game of 2019. Money has come in on Rutgers since the opener, and that’s smart money. Nobody but pros would step in to back a 3-21 football team the past two seasons. We agree with the move as Schiano has proven himself to be a quality college football head coach, something this state hasn’t seen since he left close to a decade ago. PLAY RUTGERS |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +2.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
310 UL Lafayette at UAB The Blazers are a perfect 21-0 SU at Legion Field since a return to college football in 2017. That includes four outright victories in the underdog role. The only loss on the season for UAB was a 17 point loss at Miami Florida. The Ragin’ Cajuns were 11-3 last year and were highly ranked earlier in the season. But this team has continued to disappoint its backers. While 3-1 SU on the year ULL hasn’t covered a contest since the opening game upset at Iowa State. Just can’t trust this team to lay points into a major home field advantage for the Blazers. PLAY UAB |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State +13.5 v. Appalachian State | 17-45 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
305 Arkansas State at Appalachian State The Red Wolves have been able to move the ball on everyone. The two quarterback attack has produced 191 points in five games. That includes covers against Memphis and Kansas State, the later being an outright victory. The team has a terrific 23 to 4 TD to INT ratio. App State hasn’t played a game since September 26th against Campbell. The Mountaineers have yet to provide its backers with a spread cover. Zac Thomas the senior QB has a 2 to 2 TD to INT ratio in three games. This line is simply too high with two quality signal callers for the Red Wolves. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +13.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
162 Marshall at Louisiana Tech We’ve been a big believer in the Thundering Herd this year, as Doc Holliday continues to be one of the best coaches in the college ranks. That said, this team is really being priced high here against a quality Bulldogs squad. Over the last decade the Herd is only 11-19-2 ATS as a road favorite, and haven’t posted a winning mark in that regard since 2015. Tech is coming in off a ten win season in 2019, and Skip Holtz has a history of rewarding backers in the underdog role. The Bulldogs struggled against UTEP last week, but this Miners team is much better than any other squad Dana Dimel has coached in El Paso. Since 2014 Louisiana Tech is 28-8 straight up at home. Throw in the fact that this team was embarrassed by Marshall last year 31-10, and we have a terrific revenge situation. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-17-20 | Kansas v. West Virginia -22 | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
128 Kansas at West Virginia Both teams off a bye heading into this one. Les Miles will miss the game after coming down with Covid. Not sure it matters much as he has done nothing but collect a paycheck since coming to Lawrence. The Jayhawks will be using a backup quarterback here, although the drop off is negligible. West Virginia is looking to bounce back from a rare losing season in 2019. 2013 was the last losing season in Morgantown, and the club won three games more the following season. The Mountaineers have a habit of blowing out lesser teams. Winning by margins of 37, 44, 16, 29, 35, 22, 43, and 36 points the past three seasons when laying double digits. Lay it with the host. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-17-20 | Liberty -2.5 v. Syracuse | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
129 Liberty at Syracuse Revenge game for the Flames who were shutout 24-0 by the Orange in the season opener a year ago. Hugh Freeze has done a wonderful job in Lynchburg in his short stay. Winning eight games a season ago and being one of the big surprises early on in 2020. Last week we backed the Orange and lost and failed to cover, despite a +4 turnover advantage. Syracuse is down to a backup quarterback and have been competitive because of smoke and mirrors. A huge +10 turnover advantage on the season has kept them from being embarrassed. That ends here as we back the clear team on the rise, with the far better coach. PLAY LIBERTY |
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10-10-20 | Charlotte -3 v. North Texas | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
355 Charlotte at North Texas Two teams that have the ability to put up points, but only one has any semblance of a defense. The Green Wave play as if it’s basketball on grass, scoring at a moments notice. But the defense gives it up just as fast as the offense. Charlotte on the other hand can move the ball at will in this contest, but has a defense that can slow down this fast paced North Texas team. Defense will determine the winner here, and that’s all 49ers. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-10-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +24 | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 13 m | Show | |
328 Alabama at Mississippi Two teams that are loaded offensively and have great coaching. But these defenses have been a disappointment thus far. We would like to play this game over the total, but the hurricane put a stop to that as weather is a concern. That said, we feel the Rebels can stay within this number, despite what went down when both coaches were in Tuscaloosa. With Georgia on deck for the Tide, we can see Saban giving playing time to some bench players in this one. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-10-20 | Temple -3.5 v. Navy | 29-31 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
347 Temple at Navy First game of the season for the Owls. But they have been practicing for the option during the preseason. With film on the Midshipmen you would have to think Temple has the advantage here. Navy could be the biggest disappointment in college football. This club has played just one good half of football all season. Can’t see that changing much against what we consider to be a pretty solid Temple squad. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6 v. Boston College | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
311 Pittsburgh at Boston College Big bounce back game here for the Panthers after blowing a late lead to NC State a week ago. Pitt had four shots at the end zone from the one yard line and failed to score in that contest. Nothing stronger than that to motivate an offense that has been stagnate. BC is having major problems running the football which is a Pitt defensive strength. With a one-dimensional offense, we can count on the Pitt stop unit to have a big day. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-10-20 | Duke v. Syracuse +2.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
310 Duke at Syracuse Clemson transfer QB Chase Brice has had a real problem with turnovers this year, and this Syracuse stop unit has been very good at forcing turnovers. Tommy DeVito struggled with interceptions in the past, but he has been able to limit those mistakes for the most part this year. Duke ranks last in the conference against the run, and Orange freshman RB Sean Tucker looked good last time out. Wrong team favored here, give us the Orangemen. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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10-03-20 | Virginia Tech -12 v. Duke | 38-31 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 49 m | Show | |
113 Virginia Tech at Duke The more games the Blue Devils play, the more reasons to bet against them become obvious. This is a turnover machine right now, and the coaching staff doesn’t have a quality backup to bench the starter. Duke doesn’t have anyone to stretch the field, relying on the tight end and running backs. Virginia Tech has a duel threat quarterback, which should really find success against this Duke defense. The Hokies struggled with Covid a couple weeks ago, and many of those players are expected to return for this game. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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10-03-20 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -17.5 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 45 h 30 m | Show | |
144 Texas A&M at Alabama Kellen Mond played one of his better games last year and the Aggies still lost by 19. The offensive line has experience but didn’t look very good last time out against Vandy, a team on the opposite spectrum from the Tide. Alabama has advantage in the trenches, which means the host can dictate the pace of play. The defense played a mobile quarterback last week, so should have an edge against Mond. There is no love lost between these coaches, and after the Tide allowed a late td a week ago, we feel Saban keeps up the pressure. PLAY ALABAMA |
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10-03-20 | North Carolina -13.5 v. Boston College | 26-22 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 20 m | Show | |
111 North Carolina at Boston College Boston College was very lucky to escape with a victory last week against Texas State. The running game has really struggled, which is very much needed to keep the defense off the field. Against a fast paced Tar Heels team, you need to give your defense a rest. We backed North Carolina in the season opener, and the team has been on the sidelines since. With the additional practice time we are looking for a fired up offense to take advantage of this BC stop unit. When the Eagles fall behind this team doesn’t have the offensive playmakers to forge a comeback. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-03-20 | Missouri +13 v. Tennessee | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 51 m | Show | |
115 Missouri at Tennessee The Volunteers were highly hyped in the offseason after winning its final six games. The streak continued last week with an unimpressive victory over what could be a bad South Carolina team. This game opened up at 11 and is starting to show 13 in some places. We disagree with the line move, as Missouri looked decently well against powerhouse Alabama last week. The Missouri signal callers were 26 of 39 for 253 yards against one of the best defenses in all of football. Missouri has enough talent to keep this game easily within the current number. PLAY MISSOURI |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
448 UTEP at Louisiana Monroe These are the two lowest ranked teams in our power ratings. In the last three seasons the Miners have won two combined games. After surviving two FCS squads to start the year, this is a confident bunch heading into this contest. UTEP only averaged 20 mpg a year ago, and only five starters returned to that side of the ball. Even in victories this season the scoring unit has struggled. The Warhawks are looking for its first victory of the season. That means we expect a very conservative game plan. With teams of this magnitude wins are a rarity, so they don’t want to be criticized by turning the ball over. ULM is breaking in a new QB this season and the offense hasn’t come around as of late. We expect a closely fought game with scoring at a minimum. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
446 Army at Cincinnati The Black Knights averaged 57 running plays a game last year. This team only threw the ball 59 times all season a year ago. Army specializes in long clock absorbing drives which is what you are looking for when playing a game under the total. Cincinnati permitted just 21 points per game in 2019 and bring back nine defensive starters. Luke Fickell is a very conservative coach who looks to win by running the football and playing strong defense. We expect the clock in this contest to fly by, as both teams keep the ball on the ground. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Georgia Southern +11.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
421 Georgia Southern at Louisiana Lafayette A perfect 2-0 on the season in games involving the Ragin’ Cajuns. Georgia Southern was hit hard by Covid the first game of the season. Now with time the team looks to bring back the majority of players that missed the opener. This is a team that can easily wear down the opposition because of a powerful running attack. Last year the Eagles averaged 51 carries per contest. ULL fought hard last week after falling behind early, grabbing victory from the hands of defeat. That’s a lot of spent energy after knocking off a ranked Big 12 opponent on the road for the first time in school history. Look for the Eagles to dictate the pace and stay well under this number. PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
07 Wake Forest at North Carolina State Wake fared about as well as expected by facing Clemson out of the gate. This is a team really dropping down in opposition, with a game already under its belt. The Demon Deacons are running one of the fastest offenses in college football. We expect this team to have a great deal of success against a team not used to that type of pace. NC State has been dealing with Covid 19, so its been tough getting players on the field together. In what we expect to be a high scoring game we will back the visitor. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +15.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
104 Louisiana Lafayette at Georgia State We backed the Ragin’ Cajuns last week with success, but we are looking to fade them on Saturday. ULL is off its first ever Top 25 road win in the programs history. Now 1-26 away vs elite opponents. Not only is Lafayette off a road first, but the team itself is now being ranked. Despite putting up 35 points last week the offense only gained 272 yards. Early in the season it’s tough to get a grasp on teams because of small sample sizes. ULL is a good team but this line is inflated because of one game. Give us the home dog here to keep this much closer than anticipated. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 81 h 48 m | Show | |
403 Coastal Carolina at Kansas The visitor should be well prepared in this contest as they have had 15 more spring practices than the Jayhawks. They also return more starters than the host. The coaching staff returns in full along with its starting quarterback. Kansas has a new OC and must replace its quarterback. Simply can’t trust this terrible football program to lay points to a team it lost to just last season. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. Iowa State | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
415 Louisiana Lafayette at Iowa State When a Sun Belt team plays a Big 5 program and the money has come in on the underdog you need to give it some respect. And for good reason as Lafayette had an 11 win season a year ago and is projected to be even better this year. Senior returning quarterback with a 26-4 TD to INT ratio has us interested. We also have a head coach in Billy Napier who was a hot commodity in the offseason and decided to stay put in search for the Sun Belt Championship. Iowa State is a good football program but we much prefer them as an underdog than laying double digits. This is a team under Matt Campbell that prefers to be very conservative and slow the pace down. Under Campbell this team is 6-9 ATS as a home favorite, 17-8 ATS as an underdog. PLAY LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -22.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
396 Syracuse at North Carolina Don’t think much of this Syracuse team who has won five or less games 5 of the last 6 years. After a breakout 2018 in which the Orangemen won ten games, the team dropped to a 5-7 record last year. The players sat out practices because of the COVID, and really look like a team just going through the motions right now. This was an experienced team a year ago, no so in 2020. They hired a new defensive coordinator who is installing a 3-3-5 defense. Tough to make those type of changes and have to face an NFL caliber quarterback right out of the gate. North Carolina is a team on the rise under second year coach Mack Brown. I had originally hated the signing as I felt the game had passed him by. I’m big enough to admit my mistakes, and that was a big one. As the Tar Heels went from winning two games in 2018 to seven last year. QB Sam Howell was dominant last year and really put his name out there for those looking from the next level. North Carolina finished the year scoring 41 and 56 points, we expect a huge offensive season from this team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah -7 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
262 Texas at Utah We have made steady money all season long betting against these Longhorns. This was the most overrated team in the country heading into the season. On the other hand Utah was a team we focused on backing before the season even started. Now we get the best matchup we could ask for in the bowl season. Texas has played the tougher schedule at #4 as opposed to #49. But that’s the only advantage for the Longhorns. When looking at yards per play differentials on the season Texas is 0.0. Allowing the exact same amount as they produce. That’s 75th in the country. Utah on the other hand is plus 2.5, which equates to #6 in the country. Coming into the season who do you think would be happy to play in this bowl? Obviously not the Longhorns who had higher aspirations. Sure Utah had the chance to play in the final four if it beat Oregon, but coming into the season this bowl would have been a nice reward for the Utes. Throw in the fact that the Utah head coach is terrific in bowl games and we find ourselves once again fading this Texas team. PLAY UTAH |
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12-27-19 | USC +2.5 v. Iowa | 24-49 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
233 USC & Iowa in San Diego The Trojans head back to the bowls after missing out last year. USC had gone bowling six straight years prior to that 5-7 season. USC played the tougher schedule 19th to 37th. USC produced a higher yards per play 0.9 to 0.8. The location also favors the Trojans. From a recruiting standpoint Southern Cal is one of the top programs in the nation, while Iowa recruits like a middle of the pack Big 10 program. Kedon Slovis has a 28 to 9 TD to INT ratio and a passer rating of 167.6 on the season. Nate Stanley has a 14 to 7 TD to INT ratio with a passer rating of 129.4. The Trojans have a receiving corp that is heads and shoulders better than anything the Hawkeyes have seen this season. Wrong team favored. PLAY USC |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 34-30 | Loss | -107 | 415 h 9 m | Show | |
225 Pittsburgh & Eastern Michigan in Detroit Quick Lane Bowl Pitt is going bowling for the 11th time in the last 12 years. After losing the last two games of the season to Virginia Tech and Boston College, we expect the Panthers to be motivated here. Pitt is terrific against the run allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the season. That will severely limit this Eastern Michigan offense by making them one dimensional. Eastern Michigan has gone to two bowl games in the last 20 years. Losing to Georgia Southern and Old Dominion in the past three seasons. Those games were played at destination areas where the players could enjoy the weather and the sites. This game is being played in their home state, not much of a reward for the players. The MAC was by far the worst conference in head to head matchups against non-conference foes this season. And the MAC has long been a money burner in bowl season. We expect the much better team to take this game seriously and pound the inferior foe. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
110 Baylor & Oklahoma Despite the close 34-31 final score Oklahoma outgained Baylor by 218 yards in the previous meeting. Baylor dominated the first half while the Sooners crushed in the second half. The 525 total yards were a season high against this Baylor stop unit. Oklahoma has permitted just 335, 204 and 307 yards the past three weeks, as the defense is getting better as the season goes along. One thing to point out is Baylor has a +17 combined turnover margin edge in this matchup. The Bears have been living off turnovers all season, while Oklahoma is struggling taking care of the football. Unless Baylor wins this turnover battle by more than one, we see it very unlikely Baylor can keep this one close enough to stay under this number. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
367 Ohio State at Michigan Surprised by the money coming in on the host. Just a week ago the look ahead number in this contest was 13 1/2. Ohio State beat Penn State by 11 points and 190 yards despite a -2 turnover disadvantage. Now the line is about five points shorter. Neither team will have much success running the football, as both allow less than 3 yards per carry. Which brings us to the passing game where the Buckeyes have a huge edge. Fields has a 33 to 1 td to int ratio and a 190.3 passer rating. Patterson is 21 to 5 with a 149.6 passer rating. From an average game score rating Ohio State is 123.8 and Michigan is 106.4. Only once all season have the Wolverines reached the average Buckeye game score, and that was in the 45-14 victory over Notre Dame. In order to be competitive here the Wolverines would likely have to play its best game of the season, against a program that has dominated them. We don’t see that happening as we expect Ohio State to win going away. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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11-29-19 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
321 Texas Tech at Texas Final game of the season for the Red Raiders who won’t be going bowling. Despite losing five of its six games down the stretch, Texas Tech has scored the same amount of points as it allowed. The losses came by margins of 3, 2, 3, 10 and 3 points. The Red Raiders on the season are 0-4 in one score games. This is a one-sided rivalry and Texas Tech will treat this like its bowl game. The Longhorns have already qualified for a bowl with six wins. But this has to be looked at as a disappointing season in Austin. A win over Texas Tech won’t change that. Hard to see this team getting up for this contest after being non-competitive last week against Baylor. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | Top | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
122 Michigan at Indiana The Wolverines have finally put it all together and are playing like many thought this team would before the season. Winning 6 of 7 including a blow out victory over Notre Dame. But this is a terrible sandwich spot after knocking off Michigan State and having Ohio State on deck. Michigan has owned Indiana in football for decades, as this sets up as a huge letdown situation. Indiana hasn’t beaten Michigan, but the last four years have been very competitive. The Hoosiers have cashed each of those games by a combined 38 1/2 points. This is the best Indiana football team in a really long time. It’s the first team that is going to finish with a winning record since 2007. The Hoosiers are undefeated at home with the only losses on the road at Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY INDIANA |
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11-23-19 | Ball State -3 v. Kent State | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 43 m | Show | |
117 Ball State at Kent State The Cardinals need to win out to reach a 6-6 record. This team hasn’t had a non-losing season since 2013. It hosts Miami Ohio next week to end the season, so it is a realistic goal for these seniors. Despite dropping three straight games our numbers show Ball State to be the clear favorite here. Kent is off an upset victory over Buffalo in a game it didn’t deserve. The Golden Flashes lost the yardage battle by 95 and came up short in first downs by 4. Buffalo ran for 1.8 ypc better than Kent State. Kent has lost the yardage battle in four straight games, Ball State on the other hand has out yarded its opponent in 3 of its past 5 games. The hungry team gets the spread cover here, and that’s the Cardinals. PLAY BALL STATE |
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11-16-19 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +6 | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 1 m | Show | |
322 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech Two teams playing much better ball as of late. The Hokies have won 4 of 5 with the only loss coming at Notre Dame. But over the past six contests the team has lost the combined yardage battle by 253, and the first down battle by 21. Turnovers have been a major key to winning with a +2 margin. Tech has also just one road victory on the season, and in that win the Hokies were outgained by 226 yards. Georgia Tech has played a 30 spot tougher schedule. While the team is just 2-7 on the season, it’s been very competitive in the first year of a new coach and system. With the Yellow Jackets playing its last three games at home, we look for Georgia Tech to make solid strides to end the season. An outright victory here is not out of the question. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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11-16-19 | Texas v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -112 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
378 Texas at Iowa State Triple revenge game for the Cyclones who took Oklahoma to the wire last week in a confidence building loss. With only Kansas on deck we look for this Iowa State team to win going away. This club has produced game scores of 100 or higher in 7 of its last 8 games. Much more impressive than its 5-4 record on the season. After three of four weeks on the road it will be nice to get back home here. As opposed to Iowa State, Texas has produced a game score of 100+ just once the past six games. That was last week hosting Kansas State. With a 6-3 record many would assume this line to be too high, but we firmly disagree. Texas has not been impressive this season as we expected, but have been very fortunate to fall on the right side of coin flip games. The Longhorns are 3-0 in games decided by six points or less. Iowa State on the other hand is 1-3 in games of six points or less. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-16-19 | Indiana v. Penn State -14.5 | 27-34 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 33 m | Show | |
326 Indiana at Penn State The line on this game looks completely reasonable if you just look at the year to date stats. But a closer look at the opposition shows the Nittany Lions to have played a whopping 73 spot tougher schedule. The Hoosiers played one good team on the season, a 51-10 loss to Ohio State. Penn State has faced the likes of Pittsburgh, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. While this is a sandwich game for the host, off Minnesota and with Ohio State on deck. Indiana just became the final team from a power five conference to make the Top 25. And if you’ve followed teams getting into the Top 25 this year, you know they have faltered badly the following week. Penn State is the better coached and more talented squad, off a loss and playing at home. This line is cheap. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-12-19 | Western Michigan v. Ohio -1.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
304 Western Michigan at Ohio U The Broncos have really struggled on the road this year. Dropping all four road games by a combined score of 168-101. All four of those road teams have been disappointments this year. Michigan State, Syracuse, Toledo and Eastern Michigan have all underperformed. Ohio University outgained Miami Ohio last Wednesday, but lost because of a -3 turnover differential. The Ohio running game has bested 5 yards per carry in each of its last four games, as the offense has really played well as of late. In what we expect to be a high scoring contest, we will side with the host with lowly Bowling Green and Akron remaining on the schedule. A win here and the Bobcats likely finish the season with a winning record for the fifth straight season. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-09-19 | San Jose State +8 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
199 San Jose State at Hawaii The Spartan passing game has produced 400 or more yards in 3 of its last 5 games. Only the defense of San Diego State held the Spartans to less than 310 yards during this streak. Hawaii hasn’t faced many good passing attacks this season. And the Warriors have had a very hard time with turnovers, with a -12 margin on the year. San Diego State is at +12 on the season, and once again likely to win the turnover battle here. Give us a team likely to win turnovers, that is a live dog in the passing game, and we are catching more than a touchdown. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-09-19 | Georgia Southern v. Troy +3 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
178 Georgia Southern at Troy The Eagles are coming in off a nationally televised upset victory at Appalachian State. A game in which it lost the yardage battle by 72 and had eight less first downs. Georgia Southern is fat and happy after winning its last four contests. This is the second straight road game for the Eagles. This is the only home game for the Trojans in a five game span. Unlike the Eagles, Troy has dropped 4 of its last 5 games, and is in danger of missing a bowl game for the first time in four seasons. The Troy seniors want to be this first team to make it bowling in all four years of its class. Because of the early line movement we are getting Troy as a home dog in what we projected to be a one point Trojan favorite. Too much value to not back the host here in what could be a season defining game. PLAY TROY |
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11-09-19 | Louisville +7 v. Miami-FL | 27-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
125 Louisville at Miami Love the job Scott Satterfield has done this year with the Cardinals. Louisville has won 5 of its last 7 games with the only losses coming against the two most talented teams in the league, Florida State and Clemson. The Cardinals average 4.9 yards per carry, so it has the ability to ice a game with a second half lead. The passing attack has been very efficient regardless of who may be behind center on a weekly basis. Miami has been a disappointment this year with a 5-4 record, and are off its biggest win of the season. A 27-10 rout of in state rival Florida State. Now fat and happy the Hurricanes are expected to win by margin. Keep in mind Miami has only exceeded 35 points once all season, with a high of 63 points against Bethune-Cookman. This offense isn’t built to lay this type of number. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
106 Miami at Ohio U The Redhawks broke a five game losing streak in this series with a two point home victory last year. Miami’s long suffering run game finally broke out last week against Kent State, but this squad still averages just 3.2 yards per carry on the season. The passing game is poor reaching 190 or more yards just twice all year. Ohio U suffered losses to Pitt, Marshall and Louisiana earlier in the season. But in retrospect those clubs have had really impressive years. Sitting at 4-4 is a disappointment for Bobcat fans, but the schedule turned out tougher than anticipated. Ohio has a diverse offense that averages 5.0 ypc and has the ability to throw the ball well. It’s only bad loss on the year was a 39-36 home defeat at the hands of Northern Illinois. We look for the Bobcats to dominate offensively as it gains revenge for a rare loss in this series. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-02-19 | Pittsburgh -7 v. Georgia Tech | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 76 h 46 m | Show | |
317 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Game score numbers show Pitt averaging 94.2 while Georgia Tech is at 77.8. Pitt has played a 12 spot tougher schedule than the Yellow Jackets. So by our numbers this line is extremely short. Yes, Georgia Tech has played better the past two games and are off an upset of Miami. And are off its second bye of the season, but it didn’t serve them well the first time in a 24-2 loss at Temple. Both teams played the Hurricanes in its last game. Pitt outgained them by 114 in a loss, while GT was outgained by 12 in a win. Yellow Jacket money is buying them this week at a peak price. That doesn’t work in the stock market and it doesn’t work in the betting markets. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-02-19 | UNLV +9 v. Colorado State | 17-37 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 44 m | Show | |
357 UNLV at Colorado State The Rebels have been a much better team since Kenyon Oblad took over behind center. His QB rating is 118.6 as opposed to Armani Rogers and his 94.4 rating. Under Rogers the team was a run only offense with just two touchdown passes, now the team is multi dimensional. The last three games the Rebels have combined to outgain the opposition by 38 yards, and had nine more first downs. Despite playing two of those three games on the road. The previous four games UNLV was outgained by 643 total yards and losing first downs by 13. Colorado State is off back to back wins for the first time this season, both on the road. The only home victory for the Rams was a win over FCS entrant Western Illinois. Despite victories the last two games Colorado State permitted 6.3 and 5.2 yards per carry to Fresno State and New Mexico. We look for a tightly contested higher scoring contest. PLAY UNLV |
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11-02-19 | Buffalo v. Eastern Michigan -1 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 20 m | Show |
336 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan The Bulls have struggled on the road this year with the only victory coming at Akron 21-0, what could be the worst team in the FBS. The last two games Buffalo has a +7 turnover margin but only outgained the opposition by a combined 89 yards. So while the final scores looked impressive, a great deal of luck was included. Buffalo is now 6-18-1 as a conference road underdog the last decade plus. Eastern Michigan has only played at home three times this season. This is the only home game for the Eagles in a four week span. Keep in mind the last time on this field the Eagles beat Western Michigan, the clear best team in the conference 34-27, outgaining the Broncos by 188 total yards. Chris Creighton is 22-15-2 ATS off a loss in his six years in Ypsilanti. We look for a solid victory for the host on Saturday. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut +27.5 | 56-10 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 20 m | Show | |
308 Navy at Connecticut This is just the third road game for Navy this season. It lost to Memphis by 12 and beat Tulsa by 28 despite only having a +100 yardage advantage. This is by far the least important game for the Midshipmen remaining on the schedule. After this contest they finish the season at Notre Dame, hosting undefeated SMU, at Houston in revenge and vs military rival Army. The last two games the opposition has had success running the football on Navy, and UConn has discovered a running game lately. Connecticut has looked like a much better team as of late outgaining both Houston and UMass the past two weeks. While many will dismiss the victory over the Minutemen, this team needed a confidence building victory. And the 24-17 loss to Houston looks much better after the Cougars took SMU to the wire last week. The Huskies have yet to lose a home game this season by the margin the line makers have posted here. We feel that streak continues as we buy low on the Huskies in an obvious look ahead situation for Navy. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
208 Notre Dame at Michigan Notre Dame at Michigan From a game score perspective the Irish are 4 points better than Michigan, but that includes the first three games of the season for the Wolverines. Since that time Michigan is 3 points better than the Irish as this team has stayed under the national radar. After starting the year poorly it looks as if most bettors have ignored the Michigan improvement. Brian Kelly is 8-4 ATS off a bye, so the Irish should be fully prepared here. But based on the Irish success we feel Notre Dame is getting too much credit in the betting markets. This is the only home game in a month span for the Wolverines, and its a rare night game. That in itself should ensure a crazy packed atmosphere for the host. Keep in mind Michigan is 28-4 SU under Harbaugh at home. With the line movement towards the visitor, we have great value on the Wolverines. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU +105 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 105 | 97 h 29 m | Show |
188 Texas at TCU The last five years TCU has outscored Texas by a combined margin of 169-64. The only victory for the Longhorns came last year in a 31-16 home victory. This is just the third true road game for Texas who survived at home last week over Kansas 50-48. This was a team we circled as overvalued coming into the season, and the results are starting to show. The only team the Longhorns have outgained by 70 or more yards this season was Rice. The last four games Texas has allowed 48, 34, 31 and 30 points, with just one of those games being played at a rival site. On the season Texas runs for 4.5 ypc and is allowing 4.6 ypc. TCU on the other hand controls the line of scrimmage with 5.3 yards per carry while allowing just 3.1 ypc. The Horned Frogs have outgained everyone on the schedule with the exception of a road game at Iowa State. The Kansas team that Texas just struggled with, TCU had a 466 yard advantage on. We look to back one of the best coaches in College Football here playing in revenge. PLAY TCU |
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10-26-19 | Nevada +13.5 v. Wyoming | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 19 m | Show | |
143 Nevada at Wyoming The Wolfpack have played the 61st ranked schedule in the country, while Wyoming has played the 114th. Nevada enters this game with a 4-3 record with losses to Oregon, Hawaii and Utah State. All three of those teams have something the Cowboys lack, a quarterback that could play at the next level. When facing a squad without that type of quarterback Nevada has outgained everyone but BIG10 entrant Purdue, a game the Wolf Pack beat 34-31. Wyoming has been outgained in all but one contest this season, a home game against UNLV. The Cowboys have been very fortunate in turnovers with a +7 margin. This team has no passing game to stretch the field, throwing for 124 yards or less in all but one game this season. In what looks to be a low scoring tight contest we will take the inflated number with Nevada. PLAY NEVADA |
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10-26-19 | Iowa v. Northwestern +10 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 26 m | Show | |
132 Iowa at Northwestern The Hawkeyes have lost to Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Failing to cover the number by a combined 42 1/2 points. The Iowa offense has only scored 41 combined points the past three weeks against Purdue, Penn State and Michigan. Iowa has a bye on deck then travels to Wisconsin, in its biggest remaining game of the season. In BIG10 play Iowa has only outgained one team all season by more than 62 yards. This isn’t a team that should be laying this type of number. Northwestern has played the toughest schedule in the nation per the Jeff Sagarin Ratings. The Wildcats have just one win on the season and are coming in off a 52-3 blowout loss to the best team in the nation, Ohio State. Northwestern has an extra day to prepare, and is a fresher team having had a bye before last week. This defense is legit despite the evidence of last week. It held Stanford to 17 on the road, UNLV to 14, Wisconsin to 24 on the road, and Nebraska to 13 in Lincoln. Iowa just doesn’t have the skill position players to break this game open. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 54 m | Show |
390 Baylor at Oklahoma State We really liked the Baylor Bears coming into the season and they sure haven’t disappointed with a perfect 6-0 record. But the Bears are now playing for the fifth straight week, with four of those contests being decided by one score. The Bears have been on the right side of the coin flip games, which can’t go on forever. The last three weeks Baylor has beaten Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech by a combined 106 yards. It was a +4 turnover margin that turned those games toward the Bears. From a game score level the Cowboys are 1.2 points better than the Bears. We also show that Oklahoma State has played the much tougher schedule, a full six points per game tougher. The host is also coming off a bye which gives them a full week head start on preparations. This line has risen by a point at this writing, and it’s still showing plenty of value. As much as we like Baylor, the Bears will suffer its first loss of the season Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-19-19 | Duke v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 125 h 51 m | Show |
318 Duke at Virginia We went against the Wahoos last week with success as Virginia came up short against Miami Florida on Friday. But now we look to back Virginia with an extra day of prep. The Cavaliers have beaten Duke each of the last four seasons by margins of 14, 7, 14 and 8 points. And Virginia’s best defensive player was declared out for the season on a special teams play last week. That should be a rallying point for the host, as teams really come together the following game after losing a leader. These two teams have played exactly equal schedules based on our numbers. Yet Duke is only outgaining the opposition by 0.14 yards per play, while Virginia is up 0.72 yards per play. The current numbers assumes these two clubs are equal, but our numbers show Virginia to be the correct side. On a two game losing streak we expect Virginia to turn its season around here, as it continues to dominate the Blue Devils. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan v. Bowling Green +12 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 36 m | Show |
336 Central Michigan at Bowling Green Going off of game scores we can see the reason why the Chippewas as a double digit favorite here. Central is averaging a game score of 82.6 while the Falcons are at 67.0. But a closer look at the schedules played shows that Bowling Green has faced six point tougher FBS opponents. Despite a 52-0 loss at Notre Dame there were some signs of improvement. Last week the team had its best week of practice on the season, and it manifested itself on the field with an impressive 20-7 win over Toledo. We watched that game and the dominance was real, as we recommended a second half play on Bowling Green for our Twitter followers. It cashed easily, and we feel we have a nice edge on the market again here. A major key in sports betting success is staying ahead of the betting public when it comes to changes on the field. Bowling Green has been bad for so long nobody wants to back them. That is why we can find added value in catching the improvement at the early stages. This will be the eighth straight week Central Michigan has had a game, with Buffalo and Northern Illinois on deck. Bowling Green is much fresher after having a bye before the Notre Dame contest. The biggest jump for a team is after a bye week with a first year coach. This team has looked totally different since putting in more plays in that bye week. The team is extremely excited after that Toledo victory last week, and we expect the new and improved Falcons to surprise once again this week. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-18-19 | Marshall +5.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
309 Marshall at Florida Atlantic The sharp books are starting to show money on the road underdog and we agree. Florida Atlantic has lived off turnovers the last four games with a +8 margin. It so happened the Owls won each of those contests. But looking a bit deeper we see that Middle Tennessee last week had 95 more yards and five more first downs than the Owls. It took a +3 turnover edge to win that contest. When looking at Marshall the Thundering Herd have only turned the ball over eight times all season. Marshall runs the ball well at 5.5 yards per carry. The Owls have only slowed down Wagner and Charlotte on the ground this year. Facing closely equal schedules Marshall is +0.52 in yards per play, while Florida International is -0.77. With over a full yard advantage per play, and the ability to move the ball on the ground, we can’t pass up this road underdog. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
206 Wyoming at San Diego State The Cowboys have been very fortunate this year starting with its opening game victory hosting Missouri. Keep in mind Wyoming was +3 in turnovers and lost the yardage battle by 148 against the Tigers. In five games this season Wyoming has yet to lose the turnover battle and sits at a +8 on the season in that regard. The Cowboys have a season long first down deficit of 39 on the year. Which is amazing for a team with a 4-1 record. What all these numbers tell us is that this team could be the most lucky squad in the nation. San Diego State also sits at 4-1 on the year and by our numbers have played a one point easier schedule than Wyoming. The Aztecs have been just as fortunate with turnovers as the Cowboys, with a +9 advantage on the season. But unlike its opponent San Diego State has a +25 first down advantage, and have out gained all but one opponent. Losing the yardage by 3 to Utah State. Btw, Wyoming has lost the yardage battle in 4 of its 5 games. Our game grades show San Diego State to be over a touchdown better in this contest, and that number is on a neutral field. Wyoming’s strength is running the football at 5.64 yards per carry, but the Aztecs are a stout defense allowing only 1.79 ypc on the season. That will put the emphasis on Sean Chambers to throw the football, which isn’t a good thing if you are from Laramie. He is completing a terrible 38.6% of his throws and his QB rating is a minuscule 99.87. San Diego State has picked off twice as many balls as it has allowed touchdowns, 6 to 3. We expect a double digit win for the host here. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
204 Penn State at Iowa Penn State has played 4 of 5 games at home and It’s toughest opponent thus far has been Pitt. A game in which the Nittany Lions really struggled. We love the defense Penn State has shown, but feel the offense took advantage of bad defenses. This will be by far the toughest defense the Nittany Lions have faced this year. This is a rare night game at Kinnick Stadium. And off a game it should have won we like the situation for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has allowed 44 combined points in five FBS games, that less than 9 points per contest. Yet they are a home underdog in what is expected to be a low scoring game. They have a +54 first down advantage on the season, which is amazing. Sure Iowa doesn’t have offensive explosiveness, but the ability to move the chains keeps opposing offenses off the field. We think Penn State is a bit overrated right now, and the betting markets are down on Iowa after the Michigan loss. PLAY IOWA |
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10-12-19 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -14 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
144 Old Dominion at Marshall The Monarchs cost us the last two weeks and we have learned our lesson. The competitive games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina, don’t look nearly as good in retrospect. Old Dominion continues to struggle to run the football, and the pass defense is permitting a 140 passer rating. The +3 turnover margin is masking the problems of a 1 to 6 offensive TD to INT ratio. This team has lost to Marshall by 20 points or more in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The Thundering Herd is coming off an embarrassing 24-13 loss to Middle Tennessee State. Marshall outgained the Blue Hens by 177 yards but lost the turnover battle by 4. Losses to Boise State and Cincinnati can be forgiven, but the way this team looked last week is problematic. The Marshall defensive weakness is against the pass, but the Monarchs don’t have a quality passing attack. Marshall won a combined 17 games the past two seasons and returned 14 starters from a year ago. We expect this to be a breakout game for the host. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -2 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show | |
110 Virginia at Miami Fl We were high on the Cavaliers coming into the season, but just haven’t seen enough out of this club to trust them on the road here. Our numbers show these two teams have played exactly the same schedules strength wise. Virginia has played 3 of 5 at home with an average game score of 93.2. Miami played a neutral site game along with three at home and one away. The Hurricanes have an average game score of 97.3. When we break down the numbers we find the Cavaliers with a 0.99 yards per play advantage, while Miami is plus 1.79. The host is going with N’Kosi Perry at quarterback this week. He led the Hurricanes back last week after falling behind Virginia Tech early. In that game Miami outgained the Hokies by 226 yards and ten first downs. It was a -5 turnover margin that cost them the game. That’s the first time all season the Hurricanes lost the turnover battle. Miami has outgained every opponent this season including Florida in the season opener. Miami is a much better team than the 2-3 record. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
106 Louisiana Monroe at Texas State The Warhawks enter this contest after falling at home to Memphis, while Texas State had a bye after two straight victories. Against FBS competition the visitor has played a 2 point tougher schedule. ULM has played twice on the road, a 45-44 loss at Florida State and a 72-20 defeat at Iowa State. What looked like an impressive result against the Seminoles, looks a bit different now. Florida State has been a major disappointment, and the +2 turnover margin and negative 82 yard deficit is more telling. ULM is 6-17 straight up on the road under Matt Viator. Jake Spavital is in his first season in San Marcos. After losing to Texas A&M, Wyoming and SMU, he talked about the team starting a new season. Those clubs are currently a combined 13-3. Since that point the Bobcats pounded a pretty good FCS squad in Nicholls State, and beat a 3-2 Georgia State team that upset Tennessee. With the extra week to prepare and our numbers showing the host as a slight favorite, we will gladly take the points with an underrated Bobcats squad. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
391 Michigan State at Ohio State In the last six years Michigan State has been an underdog to the Buckeyes five times. The Spartans won 2 of those 5 games in straight up fashion, as 5 and 14 point dogs. In another game it lost 17-16 while catching 21 1/2 points. Under Mark Dantonio the Spartans are 15-9 ATS as a road underdog. The last time his team was here it was pummeled 48-3, so you know this game has been circled. The Michigan State defense has held the opposition to 1.86 yards per carry. Which is extremely important as Ohio State is averaging 6.10 yards per rush. If the Spartans can slow down this Buckeye running game, Ohio State won’t be nearly as successful through the air. While the Michigan State offense hasn’t looked good overall this season, the team has only turned the ball over four times. The passing game has a 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio, which is also a key in this contest. The Buckeyes have looked terrific this year, but have feasted on poor defenses. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Ohio State is at its peak right now, and we step in with a ton of value on this defensive dog. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +3 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 50 m | Show |
384 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Don’t understand why the Hilltoppers are favored here. All of our numbers show the wrong team is the chalk. When looking at FBS opponents only the Monarchs have played a slightly tougher schedule. Despite that fact Old Dominion has been outgained by 23 yards per game, while Western is being outplayed by 25 yards per contest. On the season vs FBS competition Western Kentucky is even in turnovers, but have lost the first down battle by a combined 10. Old Dominion is +1 in turnovers and is +4 in first downs. The Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite under Tyson Helton. We are currently on a 15-1 College Football run with our only loss coming on these Monarchs last week against East Carolina. We return to the scene of the crime, as an overreaction has been made in the Western Kentucky victory over UAB. A team that lost the yardage battle by 76 but took advantage of a +3 turnover margin. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-05-19 | Ohio v. Buffalo +3.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
372 Ohio U at Buffalo This line is built on preseason expectations much more than on the field results. While the Bobcats do have an extra week to prepare, we are not sure the extra time will change the team woes. These two teams have rotated victories since 2010. Last year Ohio pounded the Bulls 52-17. So based on history it’s the Buffalo year for a victory. Ohio has played a two point tougher FBS schedule thus far, but the numbers clearly point to the wrong team being favored here. Our numbers show Buffalo to have a three point higher game score on the season. A key to this game will be the Buffalo running game, combined with the lack of passing success for the Bobcats. Buffalo is out gaining it’s opponents on the ground 4.7 ypc to 2.8 ypc. While Ohio u is allowing 5.5 yards per carry themselves. The Bulls have struggled against the pass allowing a 156 passer rating and 12 touchdowns. But we have series concerns that Ohio can take advantage. The Bobcats only have a 130 passer rating with a 6 to 4 TD to INT ratio. According to recent history Buffalo gets the victory here, and the season stats back it up. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
356 Iowa at Michigan Turnovers and regression are the key handicap in this contest of Big 10 contenders. We’ve witnessed for ourselves the problems the Wolverines have had holding on to the football. So far the count is three interceptions and 12 fumbles. The later being the major outlier. Overall Michigan sits at -4 turnovers this season. Iowa on the other hand has played near perfect ball, losing one turnover all season. The Hawkeyes overall +5 turnover margin is one of the leaders in the country. That nine turnover differential is one reason money is coming in against the host. Before the season started the Games of the Year plays offered by the various sports books had Michigan listed as a 10 1/2 point favorite. This major move is based more on turnover differential than talent advantages. This is a cheap number for the host. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-05-19 | Utah State +28 v. LSU | 6-42 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
393 Utah State at LSU Huge opportunity for the Aggies to make a name for themselves on the national stage. Utah State has been at its best since 2009 as a road underdog with a 25-15 ATS mark, 9-2 ATS as a double digit road dog. LSU has played a two point tougher FBS schedule, yet the game score numbers show this Mountain West underdog to be somewhat competitive here. The Aggies only allow 2.7 ypc which should slow down this LSU running game. The Tigers passing game is elite, but Utah State has a solid QB in Jordan Love who can put points on the board to keep this relatively close. Can Utah State win? Probably not, but it does have the athletes to battle with one of the best teams in college football. LSU is off a bye, but do you really think the focus was on this small team from out west? No, it’s on Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn, the next three weeks. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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09-28-19 | Colorado State +24.5 v. Utah State | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
193 Colorado State at Utah State The last three seasons the Rams have outscored the Aggies by a 15 point combined margin. This despite being a combined 26 point underdog. In FBS contests this year Colorado State is averaging 57 more offensive yards than Utah State. Defensively Utah State is 35 yards better. So the numbers are very close between the two. So it must be strength of schedule that is the big difference. Not so, as the Rams played Colorado on a neutral, at Arkansas and hosted Toledo. The Aggies played at Wake Forest and San Diego State. Our power ratings show that Utah State played a 2 point tougher FBS schedule. Not nearly enough evidence to have the Aggies in this price range. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 1 m | Show |
166 Kansas State at Oklahoma State The Wildcats are coming in off a bye after upsetting Mississippi State on the road. But while K State got the victory, it was out-gained by 83 yards. The Wildcats live and die off the running game, but this will be the best rush defense they have faced. As for stopping the run this team has permitted 4.74 yards per carry, against a weak overall slate. Oklahoma State has run the ball effectively this season. In three FBS games the Cowboys have produced 5.94 ypc. All three of those games were on the road. Oklahoma State is much better tested and has double revenge for losses by 19 and 5 points the past two seasons. This team is 9-2 ATS off a straight up loss the last three seasons. We look for a Cowboy rebound on Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -3 | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
180 East Carolina at Old Dominion In FBS games Old Dominion has looked much better than the Pirates. When comparing yards per game ODU is much better than East Carolina. The Pirates were out gained by 236 yards at NC State, and 246 yards at Navy. The Monarchs played at Virginia Tech losing the yardage by 79, and won the yardage last week at Virginia by 26. We were on Old Dom last week and view them as a bet on team. They are holding the opposition to 2.74 yards per carry. Which is key as East Carolina has a weak passing game. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame -12 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
174 Virginia at Notre Dame The Cavaliers have played three FBS games with a +3 combined turnover advantage. In those games they out yarded the opposition by just 107 total yards, despite playing 2 of 3 at home. Virginia averaged 3.9 ypc against Pittsburgh, 3.8 npc against Florida State and only 2.4 ypc last week vs Old Dominion. Needless to say if this team can’t run this week, they can’t compete. Defensively Virginia has yet to force a fumble, while ND has forced ten. The Irish in three games have a turnover margin of -4. We were really impressed by this team last week giving Georgia all they could handle. In fact, they were only out gained by 18 despite giving the Bulldogs four extra possessions via turnover. With only Bowling Green on deck we look for the Irish to bounce back in a big way. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
202 USC at Washington In our opinion the Trojans are coming off a nationally televised victory that they didn’t deserve. Utah had 11 more first downs and out gained the Trojans by 76 yards. USC is 1-6 as a road underdog under Clay Helton. They are 8-9 straight up on the road in his tenure. Despite playing 3 of 4 games at home USC is being beaten in ypc by 1.39. Washington has out gained every opponent it faced, and owns a +1.12 ypc on the season. The Huskies defense has intercepted more balls (4), than TD’s allowed (3). USC is down to its fourth string QB coming out of the spring. We doubt this offense has much success against this quality Huskies defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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