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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 153.5 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
658 USC & Gonzaga Can’t wait for this one as we expect it to be a defensive dog fight. USC ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7th in defensive effective field goal percentage. This team leads the nation in defending two point baskets at 41.5%. USC is also 231st in pace, so they should be able to slow down the Zags fast break. Both teams are in the top 40 in defensive free throw rate, as neither puts the opponent on the line. Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and run, ranking 1st in two point field goal percentage. They have yet to face any opponent this season that is anywhere near as strong as the Trojans around the basket. This is just a bad matchup for Gonzaga, but their elite talent will likely have them advance. But we look for a much slower pace than we have seen the Zags play thus far. PLAY UNDER |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
752 Wisconsin at Michigan State The Badgers have been a fan favorite this year, coming in with a 7-1 record. The only loss coming at Marquette, the lone road game on the schedule. Wisconsin put up great scoring numbers in non-conference play, but had just 65 on the road at Marquette, and 67 of the 120 scored vs Nebraska in the first conference game of the season. Michigan State sits at 6-1, but 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to an improved Northwestern on the road Sunday. With road games on deck against Minnesota and Nebraska, this is a very important game for the Spartans. Teams in conference play know all about what you are trying to run offensively, which is why unders are preferred early in conference play. With the importance of this game, along with the pace rating of 324 for the Badgers, we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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12-18-20 | Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | 49-103 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
838 Tennessee Tech at Tennessee The Golden Eagles rank 315th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Every offensive statistic, including free throw shooting, say this team simply can’t score. Now it’s going up against arguably the best defense in the country. Tennessee is 22nd in the nation defending the three, and 27th defending the two pointer. That includes games against Colorado, Cincinnati and Appalachian State. This is a complete mismatch, as we doubt the Golden Eagles can reach 40 points. Instead of laying the huge number, we look for this to be a low scoring affair. BTW, Tennessee’s adjusted tempo is 329th. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-20 | Montana v. Washington UNDER 132.5 | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
702 Montana at Washington Two pretty good teams desperate for a victory here. Montana, expected to be among the top of the Big Sky, sits 1-4 on the season. In games involving top 100 squads the Grizzlies had a 89.3 ppp against USC and a 69.0 ppp against Georgia. This club is really struggling to score against sound defensive squads. Washington ranks 83rd in our power ratings, but has won just once in five games to start the season. The Huskies too have struggled when stepping up in class with ppp numbers of 77.7 vs Baylor, 89.0 against Utah and 98.9 vs Oregon. Expect the pace to be slow with the importance of a victory for both these teams. PLAY UNDER |
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12-03-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma OVER 157 | Top | 66-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
765 UTSA at Oklahoma The Roadrunners have an excellent backcourt which is willing to run with the Sooners. Adjusted tempo ranking 24th, Assist Rate of 15th and a good free-throw shooting squad ranking 8th in the country. Steve Henson is a Lon Kruger former assistant. Oklahoma is tipping off its season here before stepping up in class against TCU and Xavier. With three sophomores and two freshmen on the team we can see the coaching staff letting the squad play a bit more street ball here. Roll out the ball and see what you have if you will. Should be a fun atmosphere in this one. PLAY OVER |
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03-19-19 | Loyola-Chicago v. Creighton OVER 136 | 61-70 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
689 Loyola Chicago at Creighton The Blue Jays were disappointed in not making the big dance, so the team won’t likely play much defense here. We expect an up and down game from two teams who can get the shots they want from these defenses. Creighton takes 46.9% of its shots from 3, making a solid 38.5% of those attempts. Loyola allows a long distance shooting percentage of 36.6%. Loyola prefers to shoot inside the arc with 41% success from midrange and 63.6% at the rim. Creighton allows 41.2% from midrange and 63.2% at the rim. It doesn’t hurt that this will be the last game of the season for one of these teams, so late game fouling to extend the season in probable. PLAY OVER |
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03-07-19 | Valparaiso v. Indiana State UNDER 126.5 | 77-55 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
632 Valparaiso & Indiana State Tournament game in St Louis Valpo does a good job of limiting opponent threes by allowing just 35% opponent shots from the perimeter. Neither team takes many long distance shots at percentages of 28.1% for Indiana State and 33.9% for Valparaiso. Indiana State takes way to many midrange shots at 34.9%, while Valpo forces opponents to take 28.8% of attempts from that range. PLAY UNDER |
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03-05-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
642 Mississippi State at Tennessee Bulldogs looking to bounce back from a loss at Auburn last time out. After holding the previous five opponents to 67 points or less, Auburn put up 80. Very much like Tennessee the Bulldogs love shooting from midrange. Putting up 30.4% of its shots from that area, while the Volunteers attempt 36.5% of its shots from that distance. Neither team shoots a lot at the rim with both teams in the 31-32% range, which is below average. Tennessee coming off the revenge win over Kentucky. Both teams match up pretty well here which points us towards a low scoring game. PLAY UNDER |
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03-02-19 | South Carolina v. Missouri UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
660 South Carolina at Missouri The first meeting had 160 points which gives us an advantageous line here for the rematch. Neither team is prolific from deep and South Carolina only attempts 34.5% of its shots from that range. Both teams defend the mid-range shot well, and the Gamecocks attempt 36.6% of its shots from that low efficiency area. Both teams rarely shoot at the rim, yet they are very good at stopping opponents from doing so. Therefore without easy baskets we can see this contest being very low scoring. PLAY UNDER |
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02-21-19 | Pepperdine v. Gonzaga UNDER 156 | 64-92 | Push | 0 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
628 Pepperdine at Gonzaga Last road game of the season for the Waves who have been terrible away from home this year. Pepperdine is 2-10 SU on the season, and a huge underdog in this contest. With back to back winnable games at home to finish the season, we can’t see the Waves running with Gonzaga here. This team has gone under the total in 14 of its last 20 games. Gonzaga on the other hand has an improving BYU on deck in two days. The Zags have gone under the total in 14 of 19 games as of late. Only one conference game has finished with more than 156 points. Pepperdine takes 41.8% of its shots from beyond the arc, but Gonzaga only permits 34.9% of opponents shots from there, along with an excellent 29.6% success rate. Gonzaga can name the score here, but what is the incentive against a foe who just wants to get out of here without embarrassment. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
820 North Carolina at Duke While the general public will look for this to be a high scoring contest. When you break these teams down we find plenty of value on the under. The Tar Heels are an excellent 3 point shooting team, cashing in on 38.6% of attempts from long range. But that’s the strength of this Duke defense as the Blue Devils hold the opposition to just 29.7% from deep. North Carolina in our opinion takes way too many midrange shots, and Duke permits 28.2% of shots to be taken from that range. Duke only allows 29.2% shooting from that area of the court. On the other hand Duke takes 43.7% of its shots at the rim, while North Carolina only allows 30.4% of shots to be taken from close range. So the preferred shooting areas of both teams should be defended well in this matchup. PLAY UNDER |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 148 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
626 Maryland at Iowa Having a hard time seeing these two getting to the posted total in this one. Terps have reached this number just once on the conference road all season. Maryland ranks 277th in the country in pace, and 19th in effective field goal defense. This team is outstanding defensively at the rim, allowing just 57% field goals. As well as behind the arc forcing opponents to shoot 31.6%. Iowa is also very good defensively from distance permitting just 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. While the Hawkeyes are 70th in pace, the team is 216th in field goal attempts per 100 trips up court. We look for this game to total 143 points or less. PLAY UNDERÂ |
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01-27-19 | Washington State v. Oregon OVER 144 | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
839 Washington State at Oregon We expect this one to be a shootout. The Cougars have permitted 90, 88, 92 and 85 points on the road the past four games, all in conference. Oregon is coming off its second lowest offensive output of the season. The Cougars shoot 43.9% on its shots from behind the arc, while Oregon allows teams to take 47% of its shots from 3 point land. That means long shot attempts a plenty for Washington State. Neither team forces opponents to shoot between the rim and the arc, which traditionally is the least effective offensive shots. Therefore both teams will be able to attack the basket and dish to waiting 3 point shooters. PLAY OVER |
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01-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Old Dominion UNDER 124 | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
662 Southern Miss at Old Dominion Very low total here for a reason. Old Dominion limits opponents to just 44.9% effective shooting. Overall 6 of the last 8 home games have stayed under the total. Southern Miss is a high scoring team on the home, but when traveling the Golden Eagles can’t keep up the same pace. This team has posted a 1-4-1 under mark as of late away from home. The lines maker can only post total so low, and we feel these teams will struggle to reach 120. Plenty of value on the under. PLAY UNDER |
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01-18-19 | Ohio v. Toledo UNDER 143.5 | 52-75 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
860 Ohio U at Toledo These teams had much better offensive efficiency numbers a year ago and the pace ratings were higher. In the last time these clubs met a season ago 156 points were scored. But this is a different year especially for the Bobcats who simply struggle putting the ball in the hoop. Because of that Ohio has slowed the pace down while waiting til 19 seconds of the possession has gone off before averaging a shot attempt. That slow pace should keep them competitive here. Toledo played very fast in non-conference action, but has slowed the pace considerably in MAC play. We look for this game to stay under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska UNDER 147 | Top | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
634 Michigan State at Nebraska Spartans a bit short handed tonight in what is considered a playoff type of game for the Huskers. Michigan State has been a big offensive scoring team by getting out on the break, but that success was in non-conference play. Now in Big Ten action these teams know what to expect from the Spartans. Therefore we expect a more physical lower scoring game. Nebraska can’t beat this team by trying to outscore them, the Huskers need to slow the pace and be physical in a show me type of game. PLAY UNDER |
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11-27-18 | Nevada v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 150 | 79-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
524 Nevada at Loyola Chicago Sweet 16 rematch as the Wolfpack to look avenge its season at the hands of the host. But the teams are a bit different this year as the Ramblers don’t have the offense of a year ago. Therefore we look for the host to milk the clock more than the last meeting. This total is six points higher than that contest, yet the offenses aren’t quite as good. Let’s look for a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 132.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
876 Syracuse & Duke This is a very bad matchup for the Orangemen. Here we have two zone defenses with Duke switching to the zone half way through the season. In order to beat the zone you need to penetrate and dish. That would mean the ability to hit 3 point shots. Unfortunately for Syracuse the team has the worst 3 point shooting out of the Sweet 16 entrants at 31.7%. Duke only allows 31.9% from behind the arc. The Orange are also the slowest paced team, so it will take as much time as possible to take a shot. Syracuse does a nice job from distance defensively allowing just 32.1% shooting. The total in this game is on the low side, but it’s not low enough. These teams met in late February and Duke won 60-44. We expect another similar score here. PLAY UNDER |
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03-09-18 | Clemson v. Virginia UNDER 117 | 58-64 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
866 Clemson at Virginia Coming off a 90-82 win over Boston College the Tigers would likely have to play eight quarters against this Virginia defense to reach that number. In the prior meeting the Cavaliers defense completely shut down this team in winning 61-36. In the last month Clemson has been held to 57 against Duke, 58 against Virginia Tech and 52 against Syracuse. The Cavaliers are allowing an opponent effective field goal percent of just 43.5% on the season. Even in victory this team doesn’t put up a lot of points. Only reaching 69 points or better twice in 17 games. We look for another offensive grinder here with this game barely reaching triple digits. PLAY UNDER |
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03-06-17 | College of Charleston v. North Carolina Wilmington UNDER 146 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
534 College of Charleston & NC Wilmington These two will battle it out for the lone invite to the Big Dance. The total in this game seems rather high considering none of the past nine games surpassed this current total. With the importance of this game we would expect the defenses to give a better effort. Also this is the third game in three days for both teams, so the jump shots could very well come up short. PLAY UNDER |
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03-04-17 | Jacksonville State v. Tennessee-Martin UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
702 Jacksonville State & Tennessee-Martin Gamecocks coming into the Championship off a shocking win over conference powerhouse Belmont. Martin knocked off Murray State for the second time in a week to get to this point. This game pits the #2 and #4 seeds in the tournament. While this conference is known for its offense we are going to look for a slower paced game here on Saturday. Pressure of the win and go dancing of this game gives the defenses the edge. PLAY UNDER |
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03-23-16 | Georgia Tech v. San Diego State UNDER 135 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
778 Georgia Tech at San Diego State The Yellow Jackets haven’t played outside the Eastern Time Zone since November. This is a very tough trip for Georgia Tech and the Aztecs have sold out in anticipation of this matchup. The total on this game looks a bit low considering what happened in the last games from these two combatants. But keep in mind Georgia Tech played a South Carolina team that suspended six players, so very little defense was played. San Diego State just faced a fast paced high scoring Washington team. The Aztecs are a really tough matchup defensively if you haven’t faced them, and you can bet coach Fisher will have a solid game plan against Georges-Hunt and Smith. We look for a low scoring defensive battle here.PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-16 | Air Force v. UNLV OVER 138.5 | 64-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
669 Air Force at UNLV |
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03-21-14 | Mercer v. Duke OVER 140 | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
823 Mercer & Duke
Mercer has the ability to score against anyone with 4 of top 5 scorers shooting over 39% from behind the arc. Regardless of the score the Bears will continue to shoot. They permitted just 67.5 ppg this year but against tournament caliber squads they allowed 82 ppg and none of those teams had the offense of Duke. Duke does defend the three very well but this contest isn |
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03-20-14 | Arizona State v. Texas UNDER 143 | 85-87 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
730 Arizona State/Texas Under
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02-23-13 | Georgetown v. Syracuse UNDER 124 | 57-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
550 Georgetown at Syracuse
Huge game in Big East action for these two teams who rely on defense as a staple of their game. We like to play these type of contests under the total as every possession is so meaningful for both teams and very often squads play very tight in this situation. It also helps us that the last time each of these two squads took the floor they put up peak offensive performances, Georgetown scoring 90 against DePaul and the Orange producing 84 vs Providence. When looking at how these teams do against good basketball teams in the second half of the season we see Georgetown going under 20 of 31 games the last three seasons and Syracuse doing so in 23 of 40 games during the same time span. We look for more of the same here. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-13 | Colorado St v. UNLV UNDER 141.5 | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
788 Colorado State at UNLV
The Rams will run when playing teams with lesser talent but they slow the pace when taking on the upper half of the Mountain West Conference. Just take a look at recent play against New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State. Total points scored of 127, 127 and 126. Colorado State is a team that rebounds the ball terrifically and makes you shoot the ball from distance in order to beat them. They are huge inside so the opposition doesn't get many easy baskets. All three of their main competitors in this conference lack shooting touch which is why the Rams are a major match-up problem. The Rebels just played its most intense game of the season against San Diego State and still didn't cover the spread in a 2 point home victory. Coach Fisher decided to run with the Rebels which falls right into the hands of the opposition. Colorado State won't make that same mistake. UNLV has really struggled as of late getting fast break points and it doesn't rebound well enough to get out on the break. We expect the Rams to dominate the glass and force the Rebels to shoot its way to victory. PLAY UNDER |
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02-16-13 | San Diego St v. UNLV UNDER 136 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
646 San Diego State at UNLV
The first meeting this season saw 90 points being scored in the first half as our over play easily cashed in an 82-75 UNLV road victory. In watching that game it was clear that the Aztecs did not have the athletes to run with the Rebels. At halftime coach Fisher slowed down the pace and San Diego State got back into the game. Because of that we will switch course and look for San Diego State to slow the pace from the start as this game stays under the posted total. UNLV hasn't had a good offensive game since that matchup as the entire conference knows they can't let the Rebels run. Since that time UNLV's fast break points have been nonexistent as the opposition forces the Rebels to shoot from the outside. UNLV simply does not have the personnel to hit from deep and their best perimeter shooter was injured last time out at Air Force. San Diego State is known for getting up and down the court but Steve Fisher is too good a coach to fall into that situation again against these Rebels. Look for the Aztecs to play similarly to how they came out in the second half of the previous game. PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-13 | UNLV v. San Diego St OVER 134 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
801 UNLV at San Diego State
These two teams have really had some battles over the years with many games being decided in the closing minutes. But the makeup of the two teams is a bit different this year with offensive edges that can be exploited. UNLV for the first time in years has talented big men. They have the ability to take advantage of a smaller and less potent rebounding team in San Diego State. Also the Rebels have really struggled against the zone but that's not the style of play coach Fisher and his Aztecs prefer. San Diego State likes the playground style of basketball which fits right in with the way the Rebels want to play. Get out and run instead of half court sets. San Diego State has a major advantage in its backcourt as the Aztecs are extremely talented in that regard and its small forward could be the best player on the court. It will be tough for the Rebels questionable guards to keep up with San Diego State. While past games have tended to be low scoring these teams are far different from the past. Look for a fast paced game with both teams getting to the free throw line. This line is based on history and we take advantage. PLAY OVER |
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03-31-12 | Louisville v. Kentucky UNDER 137 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 55 h 15 m | Show |
Louisville & Kentucky
The Wildcats have been running the opposition out of the building in this tournament and it makes a great deal of sense. If you have the more talented team your advantage grows with every extra possession. But Louisville and the coaching staff are way too smart to fall into that trap. They know the way to beat Kentucky is to limit opportunities and Louisville's ugly offensive play only helps the cause. This game is being played in The Superdome which provides unique sight lines, therefore producing lower scoring games. With the recent Kentucky contests sailing over the posted total the linemakers have been forced to post a higher line as they expect over action. With the general public not knowing the true value of the total they will in turn bet the over which gives us extra value on playing this one under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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03-24-12 | Florida v. Louisville OVER 131.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Florida & Louisville
Short and sweet analysis on this one. We had the under in the last Louisville game as the contest was a brick fest and the game easily went under the number. The public saw the Spartans completely collapse offensively against this solid Louisville defense. That was a Michigan State team that many felt was heading back to the Final Four. Now the line is very reasonable to take a look at the over in this game because of the over-adjustment and the go against the public line of thinking. Florida has a much better shooting team from long range than anyone the Cardinals have played thus far in the tournament. The Gators are also a team that wants to get out and run, which should provide easier baskets. We take advantage of recent results and look for this game to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-22-12 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 125.5 | 57-44 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Louisville & Michigan State
Really wanted to play the Spartans here but never saw the line we were looking for. Thought about the money line but again with the side going up 1/2 point we were never able to get a qualifying money line play. So instead we will attack this game where we do believe we have value and that is with the total. Louisville is one of the worst shooting teams in college basketball but they play tremendous defense. The Cardinals rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency while the Spartans rank 3rd. But it's the Louisville offense that we take advantage of here as they don't have the depth to make this a faster paced game. In our opinion it's a terrible offensive match-up for the Cardinals and Michigan State will have their own problems scoring against this Louisville press. The line has been bet up a point so the way we will play this one in under the total. PLAY UNDER |
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