Cappers Sports Picks

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense is legitimately elite. Cincinnati has 4 or 5 NFL plays on their defense. The secondary is arguably the best in the country. John Metchie being out hurts Alabama's passing attack a lot. Bryce Young is great and he'll have some success here regardless, but they will have to rely very heavily on Jameson Williams. Expect Cincinnati's secondary to have more success slowing down Alabama than did Georgia.

The Cincinnati Bearcats have been run heavy of late. They'd like to do the same in this game, but I think it will be tough. Alabama can be beaten through the air sometimes, but their run defense is tremendous. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 2.51 ypc and PFF ranks them as the #1 run defense in the country. 

Is Desmond Ridder good enough to air it out and consistently burn Alabama? I don't think it is terribly likely. The guys who have burned this Alabama defense in the past (Watson and Joe Burrow for example) are several levels better than Ridder.

Cincinnati has to want a low scoring battle here and they should play at a slow tempo. Alabama has played very slowly with a lead all year and they are a big favorite.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers will be without star quarterback Kenny Pickett here. Pickett opted out of this game and will get ready for the NFL Draft. The Panthers will also be without offensive coordinator Mark Whipple who resigned to go to Nebraska to be the OC. Whipple did a great job with this offense and I consider this a big loss. Pickett is clearly a massive loss and the drop in production to Nick Patti is massive at the quarterback spot.
Kenneth Walker III will sit out this game for Michigan State. The Spartans don't really have another game breaking player on their offense, and this is a huge hit. Thorne has been decent in the passing game, but Pitt has an elite defensive line who will pressure him early and often here. Michigan State would prefer to run, but Pitt has a top 10 run defense in the country and Michigan State is without their star running back.
Both of these offenses had actually been much weaker in their last couple games anyways, and now they are without their stars.
Take the under. 

*Note- this has moved down a bit since I selected it. I would still play this for a 4 star rating down to 55.5 and a 3 star rating down to 54. Thank you and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 130th in the country in tempo. No one in the country plays as slow as Minnesota. Minnesota is going to run the football and try to very slowly move the ball down the field. 

The Golden Gophers run on 69.5% of their offensive plays. This is a conservative offense. Minnesota is up against a West Virginia defense that is much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Mountaineers are a solid 48th in rushing play success rate allowed.

The Minnesota defense is 4th in the nation in total yards per game allowed. Minnesota ranks 18th in success rate allowed defensively. The Golden Gophers are solid on all levels on defense. They don't give up big plays either. They have only allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more all year (3rd best in the country). 

West Virginia star running back Leddie Brown will not play in this game. This puts more pressure on a relatively weak offensive line and a quarterback in Jarrett Doege who has been subpar. 

A lot of running the football and very few big plays here. West Virginia is 93rd in pace as well, so a slow tempo from both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are very reliant on the passing attack. Eastern Michigan is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry (108th out of 130 teams in the country). The Eagles rely on Ben Bryant to complete a bunch of quick passes and do damage through the air. Liberty's strength on defense is their pass defense and their pass rush. Eastern Michigan has given up 38 sacks (Liberty has 33 sacks too). Liberty ranks 17th in passing play success rate allowed.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they do rank 9th in explosive plays allowed. They don't give up many big plays. That will help against Liberty's explosive offense. Liberty has allowed 50 sacks this year, and the Eagles should get to Willis some of the time. Eastern Michigan has done a good job slowing teams down once they get into the red zone as well.

There is rain in the forecast for this one and that could keep things a little more conservative. I think Liberty will do a good job slowing down Eastern Michigan's passing attack especially with help from the weather.

The pace of the game should be fairly slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers offense has been fantastic all year. They rank 19th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt has been led by star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett ranks 2nd in PFF passing grade in the country this year. He should be able to rip apart this Wake Forest defense. Wake Forest is 105th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. 

How has the Wake Forest defense fared against the top offenses they have played this year? They allowed 34 points against Louisville. They allowed 55 points against N Carolina. They allowed 48 points against a bad Clemson offense. They gave up 56 points to Army. They allowed 42 against NC State. Pitt ranks as the second best offense they have faced this year. 

Wake Forest ranks 4th in tempo in the country. Sam Hartman has had a special year as well. The Demon Deacons should be able to score quite a few on a Pitt defense that isn't nearly as good as they have been in past seasons. Pitt is 78th in opponent QBR and 58th in passing play success rate allowed. Wake Forest has a whopping 39 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Two explosive offenses in what should be an exciting back and forth game. Overtime is a possibility in a game that should be tight as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two got to 54 points, but that was largely because of App State turnovers leading to short fields and quick scores. These are two good under teams on the season. The under is 7-5 in App State's games. The under is 9-3 in Louisiana's games.

Levi Lewis has struggled at QB for Louisiana this year. The App State defense has really been strong at the end of the season. I expect Louisiana to have a conservative game plan and run the football quite a bit here. App State allowed 7.8 points per game in their last four games overall.

Both teams have slowed their tempo down in recent games. I don't see a lot of possessions in this contest. 

The two teams run the ball on 60% and 61% of their offensive plays. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a terrible offense this year. Northwestern ranks 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Wildcats have been able to break a long play here and there, but that should be very difficult to do against an Illinois defense that has been great at preventing big plays. Illinois is 3rd in the nation in defensive explosiveness allowed. They have a great safety in Kerby Joseph, and Walters has been a great defensive coordinator for the Fighting Illini.

Illinois is very run heavy on offense. Northwestern will give up yards here, but they have been preventing big plays as well. The Wildcats rank 14th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Illinois has slowed their tempo down as the year has gone on. A crazy 7 of the last 8 games for Illinois have stayed at or below 38 points. Last week, their game went over the total, but Iowa only put up 3.6 ypp and neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. 

Northwestern has scored 14 points or less in all but two of their Big Ten games. In both of the other two they only scored 21 points. 

Illinois should control the tempo and run the ball a lot here to keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars have a spot in the AAC Title game against Cincinnati. That game is next week and that is the big one for Houston. I wouldn't expect Houston to try to run up the score here, because it really doesn't matter to them. They just want to get a win and get out of here. 

UConn is admittedly very bad on defense. They are even worse on offense though. The Houston defense ranks 6th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Cougars have been dominant on the defensive side of the football.

The weather here should play a role as well. Winds of about 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are expected during this contest. That should make both teams more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing for a spot in the ACC Title game. Wake Forest will have a pretty tough challenge against a Boston College team that has played much better with a healthy Phil Jurkovec.

Wake Forest is a very fast paced team. They rank 4th in the nation in tempo. Wake Forest does rely on the passing game heavily. Sam Hartman has been very good this year. He is going up against a Boston College secondary that has been excellent this year though. Boston College ranks 14th in coverage grade at PFF. They have shut down some solid passing attacks this year.

Boston College lacks a dynamic running game. That is important because Wake Forest has been terrible against the run this season. The Eagles should be able to move the ball here, but they aren't likely to get huge chunk plays as some other teams have been able to.

The weather here is important as well. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during this game. That is the kind of weather that makes a huge difference. There are strong angles for the under in this situation.

I don't generally want to bet unders with Wake Forest. In this case with them playing for so much and in extreme wind, I'll do so.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams rank 120th (Air Force) and 122nd (UNLV) in pace of play. The tempo will be very slow here.

Air Force runs the ball on 87.4% of their offensive plays. They will be very run heavy again here. UNLV is a bad team, but they have done one thing well this year. UNLV has a good defensive line. They have the 24th ranked run defense in the country according to PFF. UNLV has a top 15 stuff rate in the country. They won't shut down the Air Force triple option, but I think they can do a better job here than most would believe.

The UNLV offense is really bad. The Rebels would prefer to run the ball or throw short passes. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, but I don't think UNLV can take advantage of that weakness. Air Force has a great pass rush, and UNLV has allowed 36 sacks already this year. Air Force will be in the backfield here.

Air Force has seen 7 of their last 8 games finish regulation with a combined total of 48 points or lower. In fact, 5 of those 8 games finished with a total of 41 points or less. 

Air Force should have the lead burning up the clock late in this game to salt it away and that is a big positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Baylor ranks 108th in the country in tempo. The Bears have played very slowly all year and I would expect the same here. Kansas State ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats want to control the ball and use up the time.

Baylor just played a very low scoring game against Oklahoma which tells you quite a bit about the Bears. Dave Aranda is improving this Baylor defense throughout the course of the season. 

Kansas State's has drastically improved in recent weeks. The Wildcats have given up just 13.0 points per game in their last three contests (TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia). 

Baylor runs the ball on 61% of their offensive plays. Kansas State runs the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. There should be a lot of running clock through this game. 

These are the 2nd and 4th ranked defense in the Big 12. They rank 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Neither passing attack is known for big plays. They do a lot of short passes to keep the defense honest. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini want to run the football early and often. Bret Bielema's team has been running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive plays of late. Iowa allows only 3.00 yards per carry which is 7th best in the country. Illinois has virtually no passing game.

Iowa has played two quarterbacks, but neither one of them are very good. The Illinois defense has improved a lot through the season. This group has a better defensive coaching staff this season.

This is an extremely low total, but it is very low for good reasons. Illinois has played in 7 straight games that have finished under this low total! Iowa has seen 5 of their 10 games this year stay under this very low total.

Both teams play slowly and are conservative on offense. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in preventing big plays. A lot of running clock and the defenses having the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles have Phil Jurkovec back and it makes a world of a difference for this offense. Boston College looked like an offensive machine last week in their win over Georgia Tech. They put up 41 points on 8.9 yards per play. Jurkovec had an average depth of target of more than 18 yards per pass, so they were really being aggressive and taking shots down the field. Zay Flowers is a mismatch for most teams, and I don't think Florida State has an answer for him.

Jordan Travis has been playing well for the Florida State offense. Travis is a good runner, but he has really matured as a passer as well. Travis led Florida State to 424 yards and 31 points last week in a win over Miami. He has been making good decisions with the ball.

Boston College's offensive numbers for the year are misleading since Jurkovec was out for much of the season. This is a completely different offense with him on the field. 

This should be a back and forth game and overtime is even a possibility with a spread of less than a field goal here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night in the MAC. Both of these teams have at least a shot at the MAC West still (Central Michigan has the better chance). 

Ball State has a pretty good defense at least by MAC standards. Central Michigan is a good run defense and a poor pass defense. 

Ball State doesn't allow big plays which is crucial for an under. Ball State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Central Michigan has relied heavily on big plays this year, and Ball State should be able to slow those down better than most MAC teams.

Both teams probably will need to rely on the run more than normal in this game. The weather forecast for Muncie on Wednesday night calls for winds of 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph and rain throughout this game.

Both defenses are clearly better against the run than the pass, so their weaknesses might not be exposed as much as normal here thanks to the bad weather.

Take the under. 

*This line is moving down as the weather forecast is being seen by more of the market. I would bet this game down to 58. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Sun Belt action here. This is far from a "good" matchup, but I see value on this one. 

Arkansas State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo. UL Monroe ranks 29th in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 130th in yards per play allowed (out of 130 teams). UL Monroe ranks 113th out of 130 in yards per play allowed. 

Arkansas State throws the ball on 60% of their offensive plays. UL Monroe ranks 117th in opponent QBR. The Red Wolves should bust some big plays here.

Arkansas State's defense is the worst in the country, and it isn't close. Arkansas State has allowed a ridiculous 13 plays of 60 yards or more this season! Only one other team in the country has allowed more than 7. In fact, 15 teams have allowed zero. Arkansas State is ultra vulnerable against a fast paced offense that has home run possibilities.

Both offenses rank in the top half of the country in explosiveness. Good weather is in the forecast for this one. A fast pace with two weak defenses and very little to play for is usually a good thing for a high scoring contest.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers host the South Alabama Jaguars here. 

South Alabama is expected to be without Jake Bentley at quarterback. Former starter Desmond Trotter will step in and be under center here. The Jaguars haven't been able to run the ball on hardly anyone this year, and I wouldn't expect them to be able to run on Appalachian State here. South Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC. Their offensive line allows the opponent in the backfield too often.

The Appalachian State offense likes to run the football. The Mountaineers run the ball on nearly 58% of their offensive plays. South Alabama is 19th in the nation in YPC allowed. Chase Brice has been pretty good for Appalachian State this year, but I think this is a game where Appalachian State will be happy to salt this game away with the run game.

The weather here is part of the reason I like the under. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 28 mph are in the forecast. That is certainly enough to change the way the game is played. A more conservative game script likely means more running clock and less chances for big plays.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars defense ranks 5th in the country in success rate allowed. They are 13th in YPP allowed and that is despite a high scoring contest against an elite SMU offense this past weekend. 

Houston won't be up against anything like that here. USF is 99th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Bulls try to run the ball as much as possible, but Houston's strength is their run defense. The Cougars are 4th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at just 2.82. 

Houston's offense isn't special. Clayton Tune is more of a game manager and this Houston team ranks 105th in the nation in pace of play. The Cougars should be happy to get a lead and run the block and play conservatively. 

Houston only gave up 355 yards against SMU. The Cougars defense has been dominant much of the year. They should be great again here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Saturday evening. The weather forecast in Seattle is pretty extreme over the next few days. What's in the forecast? A bunch of rain day after day. It's pretty wet in general in Seattle, but this is extreme weather. For a couple days there will be fairly significant winds as well. One of those days is Saturday. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast for this one.

I would expect a more conservative game plan from both teams in this one. What will it mean? Likely a bunch of running the football. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country at preventing explosive plays. 

Washington isn't a very good run defense, but they will likely put more people in the box in these conditions. Oregon isn't quite as explosive on the ground without Verdell either.

Washington's ground game isn't good. The Huskies rank 100th in ypc on the season. They are up against an Oregon defense that ranks 29th in ypc allowed this year. 

None of Washington's Pac 12 games have gone over this total in regulation this year. Now we add in some bad weather. 

Take the under here. 

*Update- This line is moving down as more people are seeing the weather forecast here. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 49 and a 3 star rating down to 47. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Play Under* One of Clemson's ACC games has gone over 45 points in regulation. Which one was it? It was last week's contest against Florida State which should have finished with 43 points but for the laterals backward 40 yards and a touchdown at the final whistle for a terrible beat on the under.

Louisville plays slowly, but relies on a pretty efficient running game to be successful on the offensive end. While Clemson's offense is a mess, the Tigers still have an elite defense. How good are they? Clemson ranks 7th in YPP allowed this year. They are 9th in the country in success rate allowed. I don't think Louisville will have an easy time navigating things against this Clemson front seven.

The Clemson offense has no real identity. The Tigers rank 111th in the nation in yards per play. Louisville's defense has improved in recent weeks and I think the Cardinals can hold Clemson in check as other teams have this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd and Florida Atlantic Owls both play pretty fast so taking an under here doesn't feel great initially, but once you look at the matchup more closely I think there is value.

Marshall is all about throwing it around. Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 6th best in the country in opponent QBR. The Owls have an elite secondary. Grant Wells has struggled against the top secondaries he has faced so far this year. Marshall's rushing attack isn't very good. 

Florida Atlantic's N'Kosi Perry has been terrible when under pressure this year, and Marshall ranks in the top six in the country in pass rush grade. The Thundering Herd should get a lot of heat on Perry here. 

I see both offenses having some big negative plays and getting behind the sticks. Even if they move the ball down the field, there could be some field goals instead of touchdowns.

The defenses have the upper hand. Winds of about 20 mph during this game are definitely a positive for the under as well. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Their opponent in that game was the Oklahoma Sooners. 

Kansas State ranks 4th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. They are 30th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They have been pretty good at preventing explosive plays especially in the running game.

Kansas' offense isn't good at anything, but they are especially bad if you force them to throw the ball. I expect Kansas State to do precisely that in this contest.

Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in pace of play. Kansas ranks 121st in the nation in pace of play. It is very rare you'll see a posted total set this high in a game with two teams who play this slowly.

Kansas has only allowed 15 plays of 30 yards or more. The Jayhawks will give up yards and points, but it is likely to usually be longer drives from Kansas State that take quite a bit of time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have played six straight games that have finished with a total of 38 points or fewer. Illinois has been an under machine. The Fighting Illini defense has improved throughout the season. They have a very good set of safeties to lead the defense. The Illinois offense is still a mess. Peters isn't healthy enough and the offensive line has been disappointing.

Minnesota is on their third string running back. They have still been good running the football, and I do think they'll get their rushing yards here. It's key to point out the pace that Minnesota plays at. Minnesota ranks 129th in the tempo in the country. Only one team is using more time between plays than them and that is Army. 

The Golden Gophers are 14.5 point favorites here. They should have the lead late and that would mean they are using the clock and trying to end the contest. That's a good game script for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs clearly have a good defense. San Diego State has proven they are good against the run. Their pass defense looks very good by the numbers, but they haven't been tested by anyone. Let's look at the offenses they have faced thus far: New Mexico State (Terrible team in general), Arizona (awful passing attack), Utah (before the switch to Cam Rising), Towson (FCS team), New Mexico (Bottom 15 passing attack in country), San Jose State (with a backup quarterback), and Air Force (they just run it all the time). 

San Diego State has a pretty good pass defense, but I'm not convinced they are as good as the numbers would make you think right now. Fresno State ranks 9th in the nation in passing play success rate. Jake Haener has been tremendous and Jalen Cropper is an elite wide receiver.

Fresno State's run defense has been beaten by some teams this year. San Diego State has been running it better in recent weeks. The Aztecs are accustomed to coasting late in the game and using up the clock. I think Fresno State will score enough that San Diego State will have to keep going until the final whistle here.

A total of 44.5 is extremely low when one of the teams is as good offensively as Fresno State. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a pretty solid unit. Southern Miss ranks 39th in defensive success rate allowed. They have given up quite a few big plays this year, but Alabama skewed those stats some and they obviously don't play any other team that has talent like that. The Golden Eagles are especially strong against the run.

Southern Miss is atrocious on offense. The Golden Eagles are 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per play. They are averaging only 4.08 ypp even in CUSA play against really weak defenses. They are putting up a miserable 1.56 ypc in CUSA action. The Golden Eagles have scored 32 points in their last 3 games combined. 

Middle Tennessee State is 98th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Blue Raiders have some success throwing the football, but their rushing attack has been very weak. 

MTSU is good in the secondary, but they are weak against the run. Southern Miss hasn't been able to run it against anyone so far this year.

Showers are in the forecast for this game (not heavy), but they could change the game some. The winds are expected to be 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph during this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Indiana has scored a grand total of 28 points in their four Big Ten contests. It looks like they might be without their top two quarterbacks (Penix and Tuttle) in this one. Against Ohio State, they had to play McCulley and Gremel quite a bit and the offense went nowhere fast. McCulley was 1/6 for 30 yards passing. Gremel was 3/4 for 9 yards passing.

Maryland has been far less dynamic in the passing game without Demas on the field. The Terrapins have shown they are willing to slow the game down and run it more when they have a lead. They are favored in this contest.

Indiana's running game has been non-existent for the last two years. The Hoosiers offensive front is terrible. Maryland has taken on some good offenses in recent weeks and their defensive stats are a bit skewed. In their current state, Indiana is a terrible offensive team. The Hoosiers are still coached by a good defensive mind and I think their defense can improve the rest of the way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have picked up their pace. In their last couple games they have been playing about two seconds per play faster than they did earlier in the season. Texas ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play on the season. Thompson has done a good job at quarterback. Bijan Robinson is the star of the team, and he has been doing some major damage. 

Baylor's Gerry Bohanon has been tremendous at quarterback for the Bears. The Bears offensive line also ranks in the top 5 in the nation at PFF in both pass blocking and run blocking grade. Baylor's offense ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per play. 

Texas' defense ranks 109th in YPP allowed. Baylor ranks 35th in the nation in yards per play. Both teams have given up a lot of big plays this year. Baylor has already allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Texas has already allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. These offenses should be able to bust big plays here.

Baylor's contests against West Virginia and BYU topped this total. Oklahoma State slowed down both of these offenses, but that is the best defense in the Big 12 and neither of these defenses are on that level.

I made this total several points higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have become a tremendous under team. Illinois is coming off a 9 OT game that finished 20-18. Illinois has played 5 straight games that have finished with 38 points or less. Joseph has been tremendous at safety for Illinois this year, he's rated as the single best safety in the country by PFF so far this year. The Illinois offense is running the football early and often. Look for them to play it very safe here as Peters is back under center and he isn't completely healthy. 

Rutgers is coming off a game where they put up only 7 points against a bad Northwestern defense. The Scarlet Knights are 119th in the nation in yards per play. Illinois is 118th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams aren't explosive at all on offense. This projects as a grind it out type game where both teams struggle to get big chunk plays. Rutgers has just 7 plays of 30 yards or more all year.

Look for field goals instead of touchdowns and a lot of punting the football in this Big Ten battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes meet in Corvallis on Saturday night. The weather here calls for quite a bit of rain during the day and again later at night in Corvallis. There should be some showers and a bit of a breeze during this game.

Oregon State prefers to run the football. The Beavers have a pretty good game manager in Chance Nolan at QB, but the Beavers are all about the run. In fact, in Pac 12 play 71% of their plays have been runs. Utah's defense ranks 1st in Pac 12 play at stopping the run. 

Utah and Oregon State both rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of not giving up big plays. That's important especially when the weather could play a factor in the game and the total isn't all that low. 

Utah's Cam Rising has improved the Utes offense, but Utah has been getting off to slow starts each week. Corvallis is no easy place to play and the Utes are in a bit of a tough spot here. 

Oregon State ranks 100th out of 130 teams in terms of pace of play. Utah has played quite a bit slower in their last couple games as well. The tempo here shouldn't be very fast.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys are unbeaten, but they are a flawed team. The Cowboys offense isn't good at all. Spencer Sanders is a poor passer. Sanders ranks 83rd at PFF in quarterback grade this year. He isn't connecting on any deep plays this year in the passing game. The Oklahoma State offense will have to be able to run here. Can they? Iowa State is 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed this season. The Cyclones should make it hard on the Cowboys to get going here.

Iowa State prefers to play at a slow pace. The Cyclones rank 110th in the nation out of 130 teams in terms of tempo. Iowa State's running game hasn't been as good as expected this year. Oklahoma State has what I believe is the best defense in the Big 12 (2nd is probably Iowa State). The Cowboys are tremendous against the run. Oklahoma State should slow down Breece Hall here. 

Iowa State is favored here and if they are playing from the lead that likely would lead to more conservative play and a slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a 24-7 win at Iowa. Purdue has made a habit out of having very low scoring games this year. In fact their last four games have finished with a total of: 40 points, 22 points, 33 points, and 31 points. 

Wisconsin has already played three games this year that finished with a total of 34 points or less. The Badgers defense is elite. They rank 1st in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed on defense. The Badgers have given up some points in games where their defense was excellent (Notre Dame for example) because of turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Boilermakers aren't going to be able to run the ball. Purdue is averaging 2.75 ypc on the year. Wisconsin has good corners and I expect Jim Leonard to have a good plan for defending David Bell.

The Purdue defense is underrated. They rank 7th in the nation in success rate allowed. Wisconsin's offense isn't good at all. Graham Mertz has been bad, and the running game isn't up to par either. The Badgers are 101st in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

Look for a hard fought battle here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes struggled offensively in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but that was largely because they faced great defenses. Kent State had to go up against Texas A&M and Iowa and even a pretty good Maryland defense. Kent State is now in the MAC where their uptempo offense should be able to pile up points against most of the defenses.

Kent State has scored 27, 48, and 31 points in their last three games. The only defense that ranks slightly worse than Ohio that Kent State has played so far this year (of FBS opponents) is Buffalo. That is the game Kent scored 48 points.

Ohio has a good running attack. They really aren't good at anything else. Ohio ran for nearly 400 yards on Akron. They ran for 271 yards against Buffalo last week. Kent State has an awful run defense. They are allowing 5.42 yards per carry. The Bobcats should get a big day from their running backs and quarterback Armani Rogers on the ground here. 

Kent State plays at an ultra fast tempo. The Golden Flashes rank 2nd in the country in tempo. They have played much faster in MAC action than in non-conference action. They are averaging less than 19 seconds between plays. 

When these two teams last met in 2019 the final was 45-38. Expect another high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense is improved this year, but I don't think it is as good as it looks on paper. Air Force has played a schedule of very weak offenses, especially in the passing game. Air Force has gone against Lafayette (FCS), Navy, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Only one of those teams has an above average passing attack (Utah State). Utah State won at Air Force 49-45.

Boise State doesn't play at the extremely fast pace that Utah State does, but they are 37th out of 130 in pace of play, so the Broncos do play pretty fast. Boise State is much better in the passing game than the running game. Boise State is 39th in the country in passing play success rate. 

In the last 4 meetings between these two teams Boise State has scored 44. 48, 30, and 49 points by themselves. I don't think they'll put up a huge number here, but I do think they can move the ball through the air and score here.

On the other side, Air Force is excellent in the running game. They are averaging 5.13 yards per carry on the season. Boise State is just 91st in the country in yards per carry allowed (4.43). So far this year, Boise State has allowed only 10 touchdowns on 23 trips into the red zone. That will regress to the mean. Boise State's defense can't keep bending without breaking all the time. Air Force has been very efficient in the red zone thanks to their triple option attack.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks play at a very slow pace. South Carolina ranks 109th in pace of play. The Gamecocks are a run first team as well. They have run the ball on more than 55% of their offensive plays this season. 

Vanderbilt is a weak team overall. The Commodores are even worse offensively than on defense. Vanderbilt ranks 127th in success rate on offense. They usually rely on the pass, but South Carolina's strongest unit is their secondary. It would be a surprise to see Vanderbilt have much success at all on offense in this game.

South Carolina is likely to be happy to salt the game away by running the football and using up a lot of clock. 

There is a bit of wind and a slight chance of showers here that would just be a bonus as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks second best in the country in nearly every major category. Only the Georgia Bulldogs defense has been better. Iowa has only allowed 4.02 yards per play on the year despite playing a top 10 strength of schedule so far. The Hawkeyes have been stingy against the run all year and Purdue is averaging 1.92 yards per carry in the Big Ten so far this year. Purdue has to do it through the air and this Hawkeyes defense is elite. I don't think Purdue will get many scoring chances.

Iowa's offense hasn't been very good this year. Spencer Petras is inconsistent and the Hawkeyes have relied on short fields for many of their scores. Iowa ranks 121st in yards per play in the country. Purdue ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive success rate. This Boilermakers defense has been very good so far this season.

The weather at kickoff time here will be windy with gusts of 20 mph. The winds will slow down through the game, but it should make it harder for the passing games to work.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls host the Ohio Bobcats in a MAC contest on Saturday afternoon. 

The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Buffalo is for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. There are showers expected during this game, especially early in the game. That kind of weather really can change the game. Windy unders have been very good long term especially when there is precipitation involved as well.

Both of these teams like to run the football a lot, and in these conditions I would expect the defenses to try to load up the box to stop the run. Neither offense gets big plays all that often, so even if they move the ball down the field it should take quite a bit of time. 

If the two offenses are as one dimensional as I expect with the conditions like this, it makes the under a much more attractive wager.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* There will be a bunch of running the football in this game. Nebraska is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Michigan is running the ball on 71% of their plays this year. A moving clock is certainly a good thing for the under.

Michigan's running attack has been good, but they haven't played many good run defenses. I think Nebraska is underrated in the front seven on defense. The Cornhuskers have been much better than expected this year on defense. Michigan scored just 20 points against Rutgers and they averaged less than 3 yards per carry against Wisconsin a week ago. 

Nebraska's running attack has been good as well, but Michigan is likely to be in the backfield a lot here. The Cornhuskers offensive line has been overwhelmed by the best defensive lines they have faced this season. Nebraska consistently struggles in the red zone because of questionable play calling and poor decisions from Adrian Martinez.

Both teams are good teams, and I expect a hard fought contest here. Look for plenty of field goals instead of touchdowns to help as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The final score when these two played last year was Buffalo 70 and Kent State 41. Do I expect something like that again? No. I do think this one has a good chance to go over the total though.

Kent State's offensive numbers are skewed down because of the defenses they have played. None of their FBS opponents this year rank lower than 42nd in the country in yards per play allowed. Buffalo ranks 87th so this is a big step down in class. Dustin Crum and the Kent State offense should get going here. Kent State ranks 9th in the country in tempo, and they will playing uptempo the whole way here.

Buffalo's pace of play this year has really surprised me. They rank a very fast 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bulls have been more aggressive with their play calling of late. Kent State's defense is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry, and the Golden Flashes rank 130th out of 130 teams in the country in opponent passing play success rate. This Kent State defense is terrible.

This number is lower than it should be because of the opponents this offenses have played. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars offense isn't working well. Jayden De Laura looks like he has regressed and the team around him hasn't helped. The offensive line is a problem and the play calling has been questionable. Washington State ranks 104th in offensive explosiveness on the season thus far.

Oregon State's offense is good, but they move the ball slowly up the field. Nolan has been great as a game manager for the Beavers. This offensive scheme is very good, but they move slowly and don't try for big plays often. Oregon State ranks 99th in offensive explosiveness. The Washington State defense is coming off back to back strong showings in the last two weeks.

Washington State ranks 90th out of 130 in the country in pace of play. Oregon State ranks 104th in pace of play. 

The weather here looks a bit shaky as well. The wind is forecast to be sustained at about 13 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers don't know who will start at quarterback this week. Whether it is Graham Mertz or Chase Wolf though, the passing game is terrible. Wisconsin is completely reliant on the run. Strangely, this Wisconsin offensive line hasn't been good this year. The Badgers are averaging just 3.77 yards per carry which is 88th best in the country. Wisconsin always plays slowly and they are doing that again this year. 

It would be easy to think Wisconsin's defense isn't very good when you see the scores they allowed they last two weeks. That isn't true at all. The Badgers rank 1st in the country in yards per carry allowed. Overall, Wisconsin ranks 3rd in success rate allowed. This is an excellent defense. 

Illinois is reliant on running the football too. They don't have enough playmakers to throw it around and their offense is all about the run with Bielema as their coach. Illinois ranks 109th in the nation in yards per play. The Fighting Illini offense is a clear weakness. 

Illinois has 20-17, 13-9, and 24-14 games in their last three contests. The Charlotte game (24-14) says a lot since Charlotte is a very weak defense. 

I don't think either of these two will push the pace, and I expect a lot of running and solid defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Georgia has allowed one offensive touchdown in five games. That is just insane. This Georgia defense is so much better than any other defense in the country right now it is just crazy. They rank 1st in yards per play allowed. They rank 1st in success rate on defense. They rank first at preventing explosive plays. 

Auburn had a nice win at LSU last week, but LSU's defense is a weakness. Bo Nix and his magic he pulled off in Baton Rouge isn't likely to work against this staunch Georgia defense. 

The Georgia offense still has some question marks. Both quarterbacks are banged up. Bennett is likely to be the starter here, and the game plan is generally more conservative with him under center. Georgia ranks only 112th in offensive explosiveness. They also rank 117th out of 130 in pace of play.

Auburn is allowing just 2.56 yards per carry on the year, and Georgia runs the ball on 62% of their offensive plays.

This one should be a hard fought contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP offense is quite a bit better than they were a few years ago. UTEP is averaging 6.11 yards per play (48th best in the nation). The Miners rank 17th best in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett are very good playmakers on the outside. Cowing is averaging a stunning 23.4 yards per reception this year.

Old Dominion ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Monarchs aren't a good team. The one thing they have been able to do pretty well this year is run the football. Old Dominion ranks 28th in the nation in rushing success rate. UTEP is a mediocre run defense and the Monarchs should be able to move the ball some on the ground here.

It's rare to find a total below the key number of 49 where you have one team playing quickly and the other team being explosive on offense. I don't think this number should be this low. Sure this is a sloppy game between two teams who have been bad in recent years. Still, there are plenty of reasons to think there should be some points here. The weather looks good for this contest as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are running an air raid with Bailey Zappe and his offensive coordinator from last year at Houston Baptist. How's it looking so far? The early results have been great. The Hilltoppers are third in the nation in yards per play at 8.27. They are 4th in the nation in passing plays success rate at 55.65%. The tempo has been very fast. Western Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in tempo.

Michigan State's offense is light years better than they were last year. Walker is tremendous at running back. The Spartans are averaging 5.90 yards per carry on the year. That should be a big problem for a Western Kentucky team that is allowing 4.81 yards per carry (106th out of 130 in the country). In fact, Western Kentucky rates 125th out of 130 in the nation in defensive rushing plays success rate. The Spartans passing attack has been solid with Payton Thorne as well. They have picked up the pace significantly this season. The Spartans are 32nd out of 130 teams in the country in tempo.

Western Kentucky has thrown the ball on 65.2% of their offensive plays so far this year. They'll air it out and play fast here. Michigan State will gash Western Kentucky on the ground and mix in some successful passing plays as well.

The pace here should be very quick all the way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a way of making games ugly and low scoring. Northwestern's defense isn't quite as strong as it has been in most recent seasons, but I do think they will improve in Big Ten play as they usually do under defensive minded Pat Fitzgerald.

The Northwestern offense lost their starting running back, and against a good defensive front like Nebraska that should be a problem. Ryan Hilinski played well against Ohio last week, but Ohio is terrible defensively. This is a big step up in class against a Nebraska defense that allowed only 12 first downs last week against a solid Michigan State team.

Nebraska is fairly conservative on offense. They will run the football most of the time. I expect them to play from the lead and they have shown to get much more run heavy when playing from the lead.

The last couple years these two teams have played games that ended 13-10 and 21-13. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames haven't been quite as good offensively this year. The offensive line has been weak in pass blocking. Liberty has already allowed 14 sacks already this year. 

The Flames have also slowed their pace down drastically. A couple years ago this team was playing very quickly, but they sit 121st in the nation in tempo so far this year. They are running the football on 64% of their offensive snaps.

UAB ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers are running the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps. The Blazers are going up against a Liberty defensive front that is 20th in the nation in yards per carry allowed so far this year. The Liberty secondary is a bit weak, but their front seven defensively is very solid.

With two teams playing very slowly and running the ball a lot, we should see a lot of running clock in this game. 

Look for a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have reinvented their offense with a new offensive coordinator. They now play extremely fast. Tulane ranks 8th in the country in tempo so far this year. The Green Wave will push the pace here and try to get as many possessions as possible. 

East Carolina ranks 119th in yards per play allowed this year. PFF grades them as the 25th worst defense in the country. Tulane should get a lot of big gainers in this one. 

Tulane's defense is struggling a bit because of their faster paced offense. The Green Wave rank 95th in yards per play allowed and PFF grades them as the 20th worst defense in the country. 

East Carolina ranks 46th in the nation in tempo so they play fast as well. The Pirates have enough playmakers to get up and down the field against Tulane here.

The tempo here should be very fast and we have two bottom 25 defenses in the country.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tanner Morgan looks lost at QB. I don’t think PJ Fleck trusts him now and it is hard to blame him. Turnover worthy play on 6 percent of plays so far this year. In Minnesota’s last 3 games, Morgan has 17, 17, and 13 passes attempted. He likely won't throw it many times here. That kind of pace with a ton of running plays is going to bleed a lot of clock. They rank 129th out of 130 teams in tempo in the country, so Minnesota is playing so slowly.

Purdue’s offense ranks 87th in yards per play this year. David Bell is a superstar WR for Purdue and he is questionable for this game. Purdue averages just 2.91 ypc and they are shorthanded when it comes to weapons on offense. The Purdue defense has been impressive this year. The Boilermakers are 30th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed on defense. Minnesota isn't likely to be efficient against this group.

The Minnesota defense gave up only 1.4 yards per play against Colorado and only 3.1 yards per play against Bowling Green last week.

There are winds of 12-15 mph and a slight chance of showers in the forecast.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a mess defensively so far this year, but they are much improved on offense. Austin Kendall is a transfer from Oklahoma and West Virginia and he has fit into the Skip Holtz offense perfectly this year. LA Tech has now played 3 games and the lowest scoring contest was 35-34. 

LA Tech has picked up their pace this year. They rank 33rd in tempo this season. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, so they are getting a bunch of big gainers. They are up against a defense that has allowed the 7th worst opponent QBR this year so far. The Bulldogs aren't likely to have any trouble moving the ball through the air with Kendall under center here.

North Texas always plays very fast. They rank 9th in the nation in tempo so far this season. The Mean Green haven't been able to put up too many points, but they did play a couple pretty good defenses in SMU and UAB. North Texas also has 8 trips into the red zone this year and they only have 2 TD's in those 8 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress over time.

A game with a lot of tempo and two defenses rated in the bottom 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. I think there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. 

Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front.

Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run.

A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well.

Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal.

UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary.

This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. 

Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already.

The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year.

This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the nation in tempo. Marshall is using only 20.33 seconds between plays. The Thundering Herd are also averaging 7.58 yards per play so far this year. Marshall's offense is throwing the ball on 55% of their plays and they are taking plenty of shots downfield. Grant Wells has looked very good so far this season.

Appalachian State ranks 82nd (just a bit slow) in tempo. The Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 6.60 yards per play on offense. Chase Brice has been a better fit in the offense than most expected (including myself). 

The Marshall defense looks good on paper, but they just gave up 42 points to E Carolina, who was the first decent offense they faced. Marshall has allowed only 7 red zone scores on 12 trips for opponents. Five forced turnovers in the red zone isn't sustainable out of 12 attempts. Marshall's defense is due for negative regression to the mean.

With the pace this is played at being a Marshall game and a total only in the mid 50's, I have to side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is way down this year. Spencer Sanders no longer has Wallace or Stoner to throw to on the outside. The Cowboys still have some good running backs, but the offensive line play has been very questionable. In fact they rank 108th in run blocking grade according to PFF. 

Boise State's running game has been terrible this year as well. The Broncos are averaging 2.24 ypc on the season. How bad is the Boise State offensive front? They rank 122nd in PFF in run blocking grade. That is behind teams like USF and UConn. 

The weather could be a factor here as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected for this game. There is also a chance for some rain. That could make the two teams more conservative on offense, and that helps the under.

Oklahoma State has somehow been amazing in the red zone (7 trips and 7 scores- including 6 TD's). That should regress to the mean. This isn't a good offense right now. Boise State has allowed 50% on third down conversions for their opponents, but I think that improves over the course of the year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense looks amazing right now. Why? They have gone up against the Lafayette Leopards and a terrible Navy offense. Navy runs the same style offense Air Force does, and they frankly aren't any good at it right now either. 

Air Force's defense may be pretty good this year, but they definitely aren't this good. I'll look to try to take advantage of the fact that their defensive numbers are skewed going into this game.

Utah State is a much improved offense with Blake Anderson as head coach and Logan Bonner at quarterback. The Aggies are playing at the 10th fastest pace in the country. They are really getting off a lot of snaps quickly. Utah State should test Air Force with their solid running game and their ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game.

On the other side, Air Force is an excellent running team. Utah State has allowed 4.28 ypc so far on the year and that was against Washington State and North Dakota. The Aggies clearly have some issues on the defensive end, and I would expect Air Force to be able to take advantage of those weaknesses.

This is an awfully low total for a game involving a team that plays as fast as Utah State. These aren't great defenses either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bo Nix has drastic home and road splits in his career. According to Sports Reference, Nix has thrown 15 TD's and 1 INT at home in his career. On the road he has 9 TD's and 10 INT's. He only has a 54% completion percentage on the road. Nix is playing at Happy Valley in front of a Whiteout crowd that will be amped up for this game. A very tough spot for an opposing quarterback.

Auburn is very likely to try to run the ball early and often with Tank Bigsby and company. They will likely get some yards, but I don't see them gashing Penn State for a bunch of big gainers here. The Nittany Lions have been tremendous on defense so far this year. They allowed only 3.8 yards per play in Madison in a win over Wisconsin.

Sean Clifford is inconsistent at quarterback for Penn State as well. Clifford is going up against an excellent secondary in Auburn. The Tigers likely have a top 5 secondary in the country. Penn State ranks 89th in the country in explosiveness on offense, so they aren't likely to be hitting many big plays here either. 

Two good defenses who do a good job denying big plays and questionable quarterbacks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. That is despite the fact that they have played in two epic blowouts against Navy and North Carolina A&T. This team just keeps their foot on the gas and scores as much as they can. 

East Carolina has played Appalachian State and South Carolina so far this year. Those two teams rank 96th and 102nd in the country in tempo. They now go up against a team with a better offense and a team that is willing to play much faster. The Pirates are likely to give up quite a few points here. 

East Carolina's offense should improve over the course of the season, and both Appalachian State and South Carolina do have solid defenses. Marshall's defense is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in recent years.

The pace of this game makes me think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen once again have one of the worst defenses in the country. UMass allowed 51 points against Pitt and 45 against Boston College. Boston College scored 45 points in that game despite their star QB (Jurkovec) going down early with an injury. 

Eastern Michigan is a good passing team. I would expect them to be able to throw the ball with ease against UMass. UMass has allowed 14 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. 

The UMass offense is improving. They put up 28 points against a pretty decent Boston College defense last week. I think they can score here against a middle of the road or worse MAC defense in Eastern Michigan. 

A total set this low with two weak defenses is a good look to the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The biggest negative of taking the under in a game between Florida State and Wake Forest is you know there will be a fast tempo from both teams. Still, a total in the 60's between two inefficient offenses makes me like the under here.

Wake Forest is averaging only 5.88 yards per play on the year (66th in the nation). They have played Old Dominion and Norfolk State. These are two awful defenses. The Demon Deacons are unlikely to be able to run on a Florida State defense that is giving up only 2.34 yards per carry on the season. They'll need to air it out. Sam Hartman is a pretty good quarterback, but Wake Forest is a short passing attack and they are unlikely to hit many big plays down the field.

Florida State's offense ranks 86th in yards per play so far this year. This is still a bad offensive line that holds this team back. The Seminoles are unlikely to fix their problems on the offensive line anytime soon. Wake Forest can bring some pressure and I think they'll have success doing so in this game.

This projects as a sloppy game between two improving defenses and two offenses who lack identity.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is very strong led by linebacker Nate Landman. Colorado gave Texas A&M's offense a really hard time last week in Boulder. This unit is especially strong in the front seven. That's what you want when you are about to go up against the Minnesota Golden Gophers offense. 

Minnesota relies heavily on the running game. They are without star running back Ibrahim now, but I still expect them to be a solid running team through the season. They lack star wide receivers now that Bateman is gone. Morgan is a solid quarterback, but they want to rely on the running game most.

The Colorado offense is still trying to find itself. The Buffaloes lack a downfield passing game and that makes things easier on the opposition. 

Both Minnesota and Colorado are running the ball on almost 70% of their offensive plays so far this season. A bunch of running the football means a lot of running clock. Minnesota ranks 123rd out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Colorado is also pretty slow at 88th. I think we see a lot of slow drives with the clock ticking away here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers host the Virginia Tech Hokies in what should be a good contest in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia Tech's performance on defense this year has really impressed me. In two games they have allowed only one play of 30 yards or more. That includes their season opener against a great North Carolina offense. The Virginia Tech front seven ranks 4th in the country in defensive havoc rate, so they are getting in the backfield early and often. West Virginia's offensive line is their biggest weakness on offense, and the Hokies should cause trouble in the backfield here.

The Virginia Tech offense hasn't impressed me very much this season. They are averaging only 5.26 yards per play (88th in the nation) despite playing a weak MTSU defense and a mediocre North Carolina defense. Braxton Burmeister hasn't proven himself as a passer. This is still a very good West Virginia defense. 

Virginia Tech runs the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. Even their successful drives will take a long time. West Virginia's offensive line issues should make it hard for them to sustain too many drives.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats have a new offensive coordinator in Liem Coen. They also have a new quarterback in Will Levis. Levis looks like a significant upgrade from any QB the Wildcats played last year. Coen's system is more pass happy, and that will keep the opposition honest. In the past couple years, Kentucky could only run the ball. 

Missouri's defense is a relative weakness. The Tigers will likely struggle with the now two dimensional Kentucky offense. 

Connor Bazelak has proven to be a really nice QB for the Missouri offensive scheme. Drinkwitz is a good coach and I see Missouri continuing to improve especially on the offensive end. The Tigers have some nice weapons at the wideout spots. Kentucky has had a strong defense in recent years, but they have lost some key talent and they are no better than a mediocre SEC defense now.

The faster pace Kentucky is playing at is not factored into the totals yet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Liberty and Troy should be a fun contest on Saturday. Liberty is a great "smaller name" team with Hugh Freeze doing a great job leading this team. It helps to have Malik Willis at quarterback. Liberty has won 9 straight games ATS. 

I'm not as interested in the wager ATS here, but I do like the value on the total. These are two teams who like to run the football a lot. Liberty is great at running the ball, but the strength of the Troy defense is their defensive line. 

Liberty's weakness defensively is their secondary, but I'm not convinced Troy has the offensive scheme and players in place to take advantage of that. Both Taylor Powell and Gunnar Watson are conservative and don't take many deep shots. We see a lot of screen passes and quick slants. 

The Liberty defensive front has gotten much better in recent years against the run. I expect Troy to run the football a lot here and if they do move it down the field it will take quite a bit of time.

With a total set this high, you have to see a lot of explosive plays to reach the total. I think both teams will play slow enough and keep things in front of them that there is value to the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes go to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones this week. Iowa has dominated this series in recent history despite Iowa State having the better record and higher ranked team in many of those games. This has become quite the rivalry contest.

Iowa State has a top 3 group of linebackers in the country. The DLine is also stacked from a run stuffing standpoint. That is good against an Iowa team that is very conservative and dependent on the running game. Iowa's Petras hasn't proven himself as a quarterback yet.

The Iowa State offense is good, but they have struggled badly against this Iowa defense in the past. In two of the last four meetings, Iowa State has scored 3 points. In 3 of the last 4 they have scored 17 points or less. Iowa still has a top 10 or 12 secondary in the country. The Hawkeyes are always good against the run. 

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team in the country. There should be a lot of running clock.

The current forecast for Ames calls for 15-20 mph winds throughout this game. I like the under even without this, but it is a nice bonus if it comes to fruition.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons looked somewhat better on defense against Tennessee, but this Falcons team is still absolutely hapless on offense. Also, Bowling Green slowed their tempo down drastically in game one. Despite being far behind the Volunteers in the second half, Bowling Green averaged using 31.64 seconds between plays (very slow). 

South Alabama made a good hire in Kane Wommack. Wommack was wonderful as a defensive coordinator at Indiana, and he talked highly about the potential for this South Alabama defense. They looked great in week one against Southern Miss. Southern Miss averaged just 3.49 yards per play. Frank Gore Jr. and company couldn't get going against South Alabama.

South Alabama averaged 30.59 seconds between plays in week one, and I would expect this team to continue to play slower than an average team. They will look to run the ball often as well and that keeps the clock moving.

This one is totaled 4 points above my projected total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes lost their quarterback from last year, and the QB spot is a big question mark now. I expect Colorado to run the ball early and often this year and try to play at an extremely slow pace. They did have a big lead against N Colorado, but 77% of their offensive snaps in that game were running plays. 

Colorado's defense is led by star Nate Landman. I expect this Buffaloes defense to be improved compared to a year ago.

Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country this year. Mike Elko is an excellent defensive coordinator, and this is the most talented defense he has had at Texas A&M. They gave up only 10 points against a really good Kent State offense last week. Texas A&M is led by O'Neal at strong safety. The defensive line is full of highly recruited talent. The Aggies are going to be very hard to move the ball on this year.

Texas A&M still has question marks at quarterback, and I expect a fairly conservative game plan from the Aggies. They are talented on offense, but don't yet have a clear vision of what they will be. 

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are likely to finish the country in the top 3 in the nation in tempo. Josh Heupel's teams always play at warp speed. UCF was first in the nation in pace of play last year. Tennessee averaged only 17.81 seconds between plays last week despite blowing out Bowling Green. The Volunteeers will play with extreme tempo.

Pittsburgh has picked up their pace last year and this year. Kenny Pickett is now a veteran QB who knows this system very well. The Tennessee defense is much weaker than they have been in recent seasons. They are especially weak in the secondary. Pitt should be able to take advantage.

The Pitt defense is still a good one, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they were a couple years ago. They lost several good defensive linemen, and their top safety (Hamlin) from last year. They will give up more big plays this year.

The tempo will be extremely quick, and this is still a total set fairly low. I think it is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys averaged only 1.93 yards per carry against Missouri State in week one. PFF graded their run blocking lower than they did for any Oklahoma State game last year. It was against Missouri State! Oklahoma State lacks weapons in the passing game that they had last year. Both Stoner and Wallace are gone and their deep threats are severely lacking. 

Spencer Sanders missed last week's game because of COVID protocols and he is questionable here. Sanders still has never shown he can be great in this offense and now he is without his star receivers. The offensive line in front of him is a big question mark.

Tulsa's offense is a huge question mark. Davis Brin steps in at QB, but Tulsa lost 19-17 against UC Davis in week one. Brin has 2 INT's and no touchdown passes. Smith was very good at QB for Tulsa last year and they will miss him. 

While Tulsa's defense is down without Collins, they still have a very good defensive front and I think they'll cause problems for the Oklahoma State offensive line.

The weather here calls for very hot temperatures and 20 mph winds gusting to 30 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a new look this year. Western Kentucky is airing it out early and often. They brought in Bailey Zappe at quarterback from Houston Baptist. They also brought in Zach Kittley as their offensive coordinator. He was the OC at Houston Baptist a year ago. If that wasn't enough, they brought in Houston Baptist's top two receivers from a year ago.

Western Kentucky's offense needed a complete overhaul after an ugly year last year, and that is exactly what they got. Now, the Hilltoppers are an air raid offense built around uptempo principles. 

Army is a slow paced team that relies on running the football about 85 or 90% of the time. Western Kentucky allowed 5.91 yards per carry last week against Tennessee Martin. It's highly unlikely that they'll be able to stop this Army ground attack. The Hilltoppers defense lost a ton from their front seven a year ago. 

What about Army on defense? They are accustomed to playing against triple option and run heavy teams. They have no one in practice who can simulate what Bailey Zappe and this impressive passing attack of Western Kentucky can do.

This total has been bet down a few points to a level where I have to play the over. I think both teams have an offensive edge here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen started terribly on defense last year. They weren't even hitting in practice and it showed in their 55-3 loss to BYU in their season opener. By the end of the season, Navy had clearly improved a lot on defense. They allowed 10 against Memphis, 19 against Tulsa, and 15 against Army in their last three games a year ago. Diego Fagot is a top notch linebacker, and he will lead an improved Navy defense this year.

Marshall's defense ranked 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed last year. The Thundering Herd will once again be stellar against the run. Marshall's Jamere Edwards is a superior run stuffer. Penn State transfer Shane Simmons will help on the defensive line as well.

The Thundering Herd ranked 83rd in tempo out of 128 teams last year. Navy ranked 117th. The Midshipmen will rank in the bottom five in the country in tempo in neutral situations this year. They only push the pace if they get way down. The oddsmakers expect this game to be close and I think that is a fair assumption. 

Neither team is particularly explosive on offense, and there will be a lot of running clock.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights ranked 15th in the nation in tempo last year. Sean Gleeson put his stamp on the offense and they clearly improved. Do I think they will become a great offense this year? No. I do think they will be even better though. 

Temple's defense rated 127th out of 128 teams in the country last year in tackling grade according to PFF. The Owls missed tackles like it was their job. They ranked 124th in opponent QBR. They picked up only 13 sacks in 7 games. 

Temple's offense should be improved with Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis at the helm. He was a very highly touted QB, but was inconsistent at Georgia. A big step down in class here. Rutgers was 80th in yards per play on defense last year. Temple's offense should be better this year.

This is a fairly low total for a game with one team playing very fast. We also have two weak defenses. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are unbeaten and they should be plenty motivated to try to keep that perfect record. Liberty has only one loss on the year. Both of these teams are really well coached, and both teams know what their strengths are on offense.

Both of these teams run the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. They also play at a very slow pace. Liberty is 97th in the nation in pace of play. Coastal Carolina is 119th in the nation in pace of play. We should see a lot of running the football and moving clock in this one. 

This is a high total for two teams who are conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I also expect both teams to be plenty motivated and that should help. I never want to take an under in bowl season in a game where I question the motivation of the teams. 

Whichever team gets the lead here will try to run the ball consistently and slow the game down in a big way in the second half.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank fourth in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo wants to run the football early and often. The Bulls are first in the nation in yards per carry, but they played some extremely weak run defenses in the MAC. Buffalo will still get their yards here, but they should be tougher to come by.

Marshall's offense has been exposed in a big way in their last couple games. The Thundering Herd scored 13 points in their last two games combined. Both Rice and UAB made this Marshall offense look very bad. Grant Wells put up some big numbers against really bad defenses early in the season. 

Both of these teams play slowly and they run the ball at a very high rate. There should be a lot of moving clock and slow long drives. Both defenses do a good job not giving up explosive plays.

Look for a lower scoring game here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Arizona State put up 70 points which makes this look like a questionable selection, but Arizona just handed the Sun Devils that game last week. I don't think Arizona State's offense is bad, but they certainly aren't as good as they looked last week. 

Oregon State likes to run the football a lot, and I think they will try to establish the run in this game. 

Arizona State is a slower paced team and they are fairly conservative on offense as well. The Sun Devils defense has shown to be a high quality unit so far this year.

The weather here makes me play the under. There is a 90% chance of rain with winds of 15-17 mph expected throughout this game. It is expected to be quite a bit of rain. The combination of rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Two explosive offenses face off on Friday night in southern California. Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and this Oregon defense has been a big disappointment this year. Oregon has allowed 5.73 YPP on the season, and this may be the most talented offense they have faced yet.

Oregon's offense has been better than expected this year. The Ducks rank 9th in YPP in the nation on offense. They have 30 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games. They have a ton of speed in the backfield.

Conditions look perfect for this game, and I see both offenses with clear advantages. This should be a close game that turns into a shootout. 

Take the over. 

*This line varies significantly from book to book- I would rate this a 4 star play up to 64 and 3 star at anything higher than that.* 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs offense is awful. San Diego State picked up a brutal 2.6 yards per play on offense against Colorado two weeks ago. They then followed it up by picking up only 3.4 yards per play against Colorado State. 

San Diego State has absolutely no passing game, so if they are going to move the ball it will have to be on the ground. That makes this a hard matchup for them since the strength of the BYU defense is their run defense. BYU is 16th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. 

BYU's offense is a very good unit, but San Diego State ranks first in the nation in yards per play allowed this season. The Aztecs front seven is excellent and they should be able to get some pressure on Wilson here. The Cougars will score their points here, but they are moving slowly and it should take some time. 

I see both defenses forcing some field goals here, and with two teams who play slowly and do run the football quite a bit, I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Buffalo likes to run the ball early and often. The Bulls play at a very slow pace. Akron has slowed their pace to a crawl this year as well. This is a very high total for a game being played at this kind of a pace with both teams running the football.

The weather here looks very questionable. I don't see Akron contributing many points at all here. This is an awfully high total for one team to get nearly all the points in a game that projects as a slow paced game with a lot of running. 

The weather here doesn't look very good either. I see value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are a strong defensive team. West Virginia is very good on the defensive end as well.

West Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a weak schedule, but this is a very good defense who should be able to at least slow down Brock Purdy and the Cyclones offense. 

West Virginia's offense hasn't been very good overall, and they have been very weak away from home. Iowa State's front seven should be able to shut down the running game and put pressure on the quarterback here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons meet the Akron Zips in what should be a really bad game. These two teams are the worst two teams in the MAC, and they are two of the bottom five teams in the country overall.

The last two seasons when these two teams met the final score was 35-6 and 21-6. The two teams combined for a pathetic 376 yards of total offense last year. 

Akron is playing at a much slower pace this year. They have decided that they have to do their best to play keep away and hide their really bad defense. The Zips offense hasn't been able to get many big plays at all this year.

Bowling Green's quarterback play has been awful. The Falcons have the run the football, and that means a running clock a bunch of the time.

I don't want to watch this game and neither should you, but I do think the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have played one game that finished higher than this total, and that was against Arkansas State. Arkansas State is the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have a great offense and a terrible defense. 

Troy has been really bad offensively the last few weeks. Their offensive line is a big problem. The Trojans have scored 13, 17, and 10 points in their last three games. 

This total has been bet up to a point where the under has value. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats prefer to play at an extremely slow pace. Kansas State also runs the ball on 59% of their snaps on offense. 

Texas is much improved on defense this year. They rank 29th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Longhorns are likely to load up the box and dare Kansas State to beat them through the air here. 

Kansas State's defense has been much better at home so far this year. They should be able to slow down a Texas offense that is very inconsistent. 

I had this one a few points lower than the total here. I think this is a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd host the Rice Owls in a Conference USA matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Last year when these two teams met, the final score was Marshall 20 and Rice 7. Marshall does have a better offense this year, but they are a run heavy team that plays slowly. The Thundering Herd rank 100th in the nation in tempo. Rice is even slower at 113th. 

Both of these teams run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays, which should mean a lot of running clock in this game. 

Rice just played a 27-17 game against North Texas, who has some of the highest scoring games in the country on average. They also played a 30-6 game against Southern Miss.

Marshall won 17-7 over App State and 20-9 over FLA Atlantic. 

There is a chance of rain during this game (it will mainly rain before the game and will create a wet field), and there is a little bit of wind. This could make the teams even more conservative.

Look for a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank second in the nation in tempo. They also have a terrible defense. North Texas just allowed Sincere McCormick from UTSA to set a new school record for rushing yards last week. They gave up 49 points to a middle of the UTSA offense.

North Texas has been very good at getting explosive plays on offense. The Mean Green already have 29 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They face a LA Tech defense that is no better than league average.

I feel like LA Tech's scores have been depressed a bit by the teams they have played so far this year. North Texas is the best over team in Conference USA.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack have only 9 touchdowns in 22 trips into the red zone. Nevada's offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone. Carson Strong is a really good fit in the air raid offense. They also have an elite receiver in Romeo Doubs. 

Nevada put up 26 points against a very good San Diego State defense last weekend. The Wolf Pack gained 374 yards in that game. In a normal game that isn't all that impressive, but San Diego State ranks 2nd in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Hawaii ranks 22nd in the nation in pace of play. This team is throwing it less this year, but they are still playing very fast. 

Nevada's defensive numbers look very good, but who have they played that is any good at offense? They haven't played a team in the top 60 in the nation in yards per play on offense. Nevada should be susceptible to the big play again this year. 

Both of these teams should get several chances in the red zone and both are due for positive regression when they get there. 

The pace of the game here means this total is set a few points lower than it should be.

Take the over. Top Rated play. 

*Note- this has moved a little bit during the week. I would rate this a 5 star play up to 61. At 61.5 or higher this would be a 4 star rated play. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies allowed only 46 yards against Arizona in the Wildcats first 33 plays from scrimmage last week. Once Washington took a huge lead, Arizona then put up more than 300 yards in the fourth quarter when the game had been decided.

Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded coach, and he wasn't happy that the Huskies gave up a lot in the fourth quarter against Arizona. I think that helps us here this week. Washington shut down Arizona when it mattered last week, and now they have heard from their coach all week about how much they can improve. 

Utah's defense lost a lot from last year. Where the Utes will be able to be beaten this year is through the air. Washington is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year, and the Huskies have an inexperienced quarterback. Utah is still very strong in the trenches, and they should be able to slow the Washington ground game.

Utah doesn't have a strong rushing attack, but they might be able to beat some teams through the air. Washington has my highest rated secondary in the Pac 12. The Huskies are going to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks.

I see two teams who play at a very slow pace and prefer to be conservative on offense. I also see two high quality defenses.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* UTSA is playing significantly faster this season. The Roadrunners have had some lower scoring games, but that is largely because of who they have played. UTSA played a Florida Atlantic team that has had a bunch of low scoring games. They also played Army and UAB who are slow paced low scoring teams. They aren't playing a low scoring slow paced team in this one. Instead, they are playing North Texas, who plays as fast as anyone in the country.

North Texas is snapping the ball every 19.5 seconds. The Mean Green are also 11th in the nation in yards per play. UTSA has already allowed 21 plays of 30 yards or more so far this season. North Texas should get a lot of big gainers here.

UTSA ranks 46th in YPC this year, and North Texas' run defense is terrible. The Roadrunners will see their scoring opportunities throughout as well.

North Texas has had only one game fall below 70 points all season. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAC. Ball State is using only 22.9 seconds between plays. The Cardinals have good balance on offense too. They are tremendous in the running game with Caleb Huntley, but Drew Plitt and the passing game can get explosive plays as well. 

Last year when these two teams met Ball State won 52-14. Ball State ran for nearly 400 yards in that game! The Cardinals are likely to find a lot of success offensively again.

Toledo was without their starting quarterback in last year's contest, and they could never get anything going on offense. The Rockets are unlikely to have the same problem this year. Toledo already has 15 plays of 20 yards or more in three games this season. Ball State's defense has really looked bad so far this season, and they have played some of the weakest offenses in the MAC. Toledo is one of the best offenses in the MAC.

This line has moved down to the point where there is good value on the over here. The MAC is an over conference on the whole, and these are two very good offenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* How did this game go last year? SMU defeated East Carolina 59-51. Both teams had more than 630 yards in the game. It was a shootout all the way.

Why would this game be all that different? SMU is still very good in the passing game this year. The Mustangs already have 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year, which is the third most of anyone in the country. 

Both SMU and East Carolina rank in the bottom 20 teams in the country at preventing explosive plays. There should be a lot of big gainers from each side here. 

SMU provides the tempo, and I like the East Carolina offense better when they are playing from behind because Holton Ahlers seems to be able to get into a rhythm throwing it around later in the game in those situations.

The weather looks good here and I expect a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons defense is absolutely awful. The offense isn't much better. Bowling Green does like to play very fast though, and that tends to lead to value on the over in their games. The Falcons rank 34th in the nation in pace of play. 

Ohio's offense was kept off the field quite a bit by Akron in their last game. The Bobcats are averaging a solid 6.04 YPP so far this year, but it has been only 24 and 27 points for them in their first two contests. Ohio isn't quite as good offensively as they were last year, but they did put up a whopping 66 points on Bowling Green last season.

Bowling Green's running game is slightly better this year, and I think they can get some yardage on the ground here. If Bowling Green can get to 20 points here we should be able to get the over. 

I think this total is set too low because Ohio had such a low scoring game against Akron. Bowling Green is going to give up a bunch of points this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense is much more explosive this year despite losing a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. Why? A new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead is a really good offensive mind who puts his players in positions to make big plays.

Oregon already has a whopping 21 plays of 20 yards or more in only three games. The Ducks have several good running backs who put a lot of pressure on any defense, and the Oregon State run defense is a big problem because of their weak defensive interior on the line. 

Oregon has been a big disappointment defensively. The Ducks are giving up 6.32 yards per play so far this year. Their tackling needs some serious work, and the biggest problem spot is their run defense. That isn't good when going against Jefferson and the Oregon State running attack.

Oregon State is 29th in pace of play and the Beavers should be able to hit some big gainers against this Oregon defense.

Oregon will put up a bunch of points in this contest and Oregon State should put up enough as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights rank first in the nation in pace of play. They are using only 19 seconds between plays on average. The USF Bulls rank 30th and they are only using 23.32 seconds between plays in conference action. This game should have a bunch of plays in it. That's always a good start for a high over.

UCF is first in the nation with 71 plays of 20 yards or more. The Knights have only played eight games, so they are really putting up the big gainers at a very high rate. USF is giving up 6.17 yards per play in AAC action so far. UCF should put up a very big number here. It would be surprise if they don't at least get into the upper 40's. 

USF has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and there are two great offensive minds on this staff in Jeff Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. The UCF defense has been a big weakness this year, and I do think USF will get their yards and scoring opportunities here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns are much better defensively this season. Texas ranks 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. The defensive coaching staff is much better this year, and they have done a good job being aggressive on this side of the football. 

Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. They should be able to make Texas one dimensional on offense. Iowa State already has 22 sacks this year, and the Texas offensive line is a weakness.

Iowa State is playing at an extremely slow pace to have a game totaled this high. The game could certainly get to the total if there are a bunch of big plays or turnovers for scores, but in a normal game state I don't see this one getting this high.

The last 5 meetings between these two have finished at this many combined points: 24, 33, 24, 34, and 44 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have averaged 3.6 yards per play in all of their last four games. That is just woeful offense. Importantly, they played Vanderbilt last game and could only muster 14 first downs and 206 yards. 

Georgia's defense was embarrassed by Florida, and they should be ready to go for this one. Georgia is still a very good defense, and it would be a surprise if Mississippi State can do much of anything on offense here.

Georgia is in flux at quarterback. JT Daniels might get the start here. This offense is likely to be pretty conservative this week. Additionally, Mississippi State's defense has actually been very solid this year. They are 35th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Expect a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State is an under team. They are well-coached, and Klieman knows the best way for his team to stay in games and win is slow the game down and win with defense and great special teams play. 

Kansas State wants to run the ball a lot, but Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. The Wildcats aren't likely to have much success on the ground.

Iowa State has slowed their tempo down a lot this year. The Cyclones rank 106th in the nation in tempo. I don't think they'll be too aggressive on offense either.

Look for both defenses to have the upper hand here. The early forecast calls for a chance of rain and some wind here too. That would just be a bonus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal picked up 2.8 yards per play on UCLA in their season opener. When I first saw that number I had to do a double take. UCLA's defense is very weak, and Cal could do nothing against them. 

Oregon State's defense fought hard against Washington on Saturday night. The Beavers aren't a great defense by any means, but with a total set this high against Cal, I think they can slow them down plenty to keep this under.

The Oregon State offense is pretty good on the ground, but the passing attack is a real problem right now. Their quarterback has shown no signs of being comfortable in this offense. Cal's defensive front is a strong one.

I like the line value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't even close. North Texas is going to snap the ball as quickly as they possibly can. The Mean Green have yet to play a game this year that didn't have a final total of at least 70 points.

Rice is definitely a slower paced team, and the Owls will look to run the ball quite a bit here. Still, the Owls should break some big plays against a woeful North Texas defense. Additionally, North Texas will break some explosive plays against a questionable Rice run defense here as well.

This total has been bet down to the point I have to back the over. A total in the low 60's with one team (North Texas) snapping the ball every 19 seconds is an automatic look to the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas is playing at a really fast pace of late. Arkansas is using only 22.62 seconds between snaps. The Razorbacks have been inconsistent on offense, but LSU has been awful defensively all season.

LSU is giving up a whopping 7.21 yards per play so far this year. The Tigers have allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games! Arkansas will get a lot of plays here, and they should break some big gainers.

LSU's offense is still very good. LSU is 38th in the nation in yards per play on offense, and they have been up against a few good defenses already this year. 

I see this as a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Illinois Fighting Illini gave up more than 600 yards and 42 points against Nebraska last year. That was a 42-38 game. Two years ago when these teams played it was Nebraska 54-35 over Illinois.

Why is this total set so low? Nebraska has played three good defenses this year. They faced Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Nebraska struggled offensively in these games, but I expect the Cornhuskers to put up a big number here against a terrible Illinois defense.

Also, Illinois is expected to get back starting quarterback Brandon Peters. Isiah Williams is also expected to see some time as a great running threat at quarterback.

I think the fact that both of these teams have played some lower scoring games early this year has led to this total being lower than it should be. Early in the week the weather looked bad for this game, but now there is just a 25% chance of a light shower and very little wind.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota defense is so bad right now, I believe everyone they play will be able to put up quite a few points.

Minnesota has allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just four games. The Golden Gophers linebackers are weak, and they are being exposed by opponents on a weekly basis.

Minnesota still has a good quarterback and good wide receivers, and I think they can move the ball here on a subpar Purdue secondary.

Both coaches here are good offensive minds, and the weather looks good for this matchup. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Oregon State wants to play slowly and run the football a lot. The Beavers were forced out of that style in the second half against Washington State, but they will try to control the ball and move slowly.

Washington is a team I like to be an under team with Jimmy Lake as their head coach. He wants to run the football and win with defense. Look for this team to be very physical and look to move the ball gradually down the field on long drives. 

The clock should be running a lot in this one. Washington has an elite secondary and Oregon State is unlikely to get much through the air.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't see Washington State having the same kind of offensive success against Oregon that they had against Oregon State.

Oregon's defense is the best in the Pac 12 on paper. The Ducks secondary is arguably the best in the country. As good as De Laura looked in week one against the Beavers, he shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Ducks.

I also want to note that Washington State played at a very slow pace in their week one win. This isn't going to be the aerial attack fast paced offense it was under Mike Leach. They will run the ball a lot more, and I expect them to play at a slower than average tempo.

The early weather report calls for strong winds in this game, and that is another positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack aerial attack really impresses me. Carson Strong is a really good fit for the air raid, and he has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Romeo Doubs. 

New Mexico was just torched through the air by a Hawaii team that isn't great in the passing game. New Mexico has already allowed eight plays of 40 yards or more in two games! This Lobos defense is really bad.

New Mexico plays very fast, and there should be quite a few possessions in this game. 

Take the over here.