Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

Kansas City Chiefs.

Being a Las Vegas resident for over 36 years, I know our sports team is quite well. And I am happy for the Las Vegas Raiders, who have started the season off 3-0 both straight up and against the spread. But I think they come down to earth this week as they face a visiting rival in the Kansas City Chiefs. KC is 3-0 SU covering two of their three games and are looking for a little payback. That’s right, the last time these two teams met was January of last season at Allegiant Stadium when the Raiders prevailed 14-12. Prior to that, the Chiefs took eight of the previous nine meetings. Yes, Kirk Cousins has looked pretty good this season. However, he has yet to go up against a solid pass defense. That’s just what he’s lining across from today. Not only does Kansas City own a solid “D” against the pass, they are also top-10 against the rush. Oh yeah by the way, they have forced three turnovers and only allow 16.7 PPG. The funny thing, they are equally well-balanced and rank in the top 10 in just about every major offensive category. They’ve only turned the ball over twice, are averaging over 153.3 yards per game on the ground, and once again, Patrick Mahomes is leading a top-ranked passing attack. On both sides of the line of scrimmage, Las Vegas has not seen an opponent of this caliber as they have faced off against Miami, Los Angeles Chargers, and New Orleans. They say revenge is a best serve cold. The Chiefs will exact some revenge here and get a big win and cover. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

You know, folks, with all respect, to Chargers fans, I think we expected a bit more from L.A. this season. This team has yet to win a game and has yet to cover a game as well. As a matter of fact, they haven’t won or covered a single contest since before Christmas of last season. Yes, the Seattle Seahawks are defending Super Bowl champions. And I will agree, without Kenneth Walker in their backfield, they need to make some adjustments. However, they are still scoring points and own one of the best passing offenses in football. Throw them up against the 20th-rank pass defense of the Chargers, and it will spell doom. Let’s talk Los Angeles for a moment. Their only bright spot, offensively is a mediocre running attack. However, the Seahawks not only top the league against the pass, they ranked sixth against the run, have forced four turnovers, and are only allowing 16.7 PPG. I feel they will pass the ball at will, move the chain with ease, and score quite often here. Take the Seattle Seahawks. Thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals.

Yes, it’s true. Traditionally, these two teams play each other very tough. But these are two very different teams this season. The Bengals are already off to 2-0 start both SU and ATS while the Steelers have split out their games already going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The Cincinnati offense is clicking on all cylinders lighting up teams for over 26.5 PPG and committing very few mistakes. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh offense is struggling ranking 31st in scoring, averaging just 11.5 PPG, coughing the ball up three times, and rank 29th both in passing and rushing yards. I believe this is a matchup their defense will lose in the trenches and be fatigued come the second half. Their once-feared stop unit is giving up a lot of yards on the ground, which does not bode well for this team here. I look for the Bengals to pound the ball up the middle on the ground to open up their passing game for a very impressive Joe Burrow. On the flipside, the aging Aaron Rodgers is looking his age. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Take the Cincinnati Bengals. Thank you.

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Buffalo Bills.

Things aren’t looking too good for the Chargers right now and I think things are going to go from bad to worse for this team. Going back to last season this team has now lost and failed to cover five consecutive games. Let’s face it, my friends, so far this season they haven’t played the cream of the NFL crop going up against the Cardinals and the Raiders and only averaging 14 points per game in both and coincidentally yielding 26 points per game in both. Now they must go into Orchard Park in the brand-new Highmark Stadium to face an explosive Buffalo Bills team that is undefeated thus far both straight up and against the number. They have taken down both the Texans and the Lions with authority sporting an offense topping the NFL averaging 38.5 PPG, ranking in the top five in most every major offensive category, and failing to turn the ball over at all. Granted, their defense has allowed a lot of points. But in their defense (no pun intended, lol), they’ve played some pretty good offenses. Los Angeles must travel all the way east for aa 1 PM EST kickoff. Any way you look at this game, the Bills are the play. Even if the Chargers were playing well, they do not have the talent to keep pace with the 1-2 punch of Josh Allan and James Cook. Take the Buffalo Bills. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Many times, in the NFL we worry about a team being favored on the road. Well, I’m here to tell you the Seattle Seahawks are a covering machine even when they travel going 9-1 ATS their last 10 games played in the regular season on the road. Their offense is clicking on all cylinders and making very few mistakes, while their defense is absolutely ferocious. This does not bode well for a Washington Commanders squad has yet to win a game this season, and comes in here with injury issues. With quarterback, Daniels sidelined, it looks like Mariotta will take the helm. The once elusive play-caller did well for the team last season filling in for their starter. But he’s another year older and is not that dual-threat that he once was. Meanwhile, the Seahawks behind quarterback, Lock are looking really strong. Please remember this team had 17 starters return from last year’s Super Bowl Champion squad. And they picked up just where they left off. As impressive as their “O” has been, it is their defense that I believe will shine here against the lackluster Commanders “O”. Please remember the Seahawks “D” has allowed 17 points total to Drake May and Jacoby Brissett. The Seahawks will win and get a big ATS cover here as well. Take Seattle. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

Yes, I am aware last season it took the Chiefs into overtime at home when they eked out a three-point victory over the Colts. But this season Kansas City opened up the campaign with a decisive 31-10 victory over the Denver Broncos at home. It looks like Patrick Mahomes is back at full strength. And the addition of Kenneth Walker, who exploded for 173 yards a week ago, just makes this offense unstoppable. Speaking of which, and their season opening 41-23 lost at home against the Baltimore Ravens, the Indianapolis Colts have now dropped eight straight games going back to last season. I am aware a season go the Chiefs were overvalued quite a bit by oddsmakers. But the Colts just can’t cover the spread and they are in for a very long day here. Daniel Jones is at the helm, so you can expect mistakes and turnovers. While Jonathan Taylor does allow some concern in their backfield for any defense, KC did hold the Denver ground game to just 61 total yards rushing. I feel the gameplan here is to give Indianapolis a heavy dose of RB Walker here, so the Chiefs can eat away the clock and move the chains, allowing Patrick Mahomes to open up the passing game. I don’t think Indianapolis has what it takes to slow them down. Take the Kansas City Chiefs. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

With their season opening 13-10 victory over the New England Patriots, the Seattle Seahawks have now prevailed in 11 consecutive outings going back to last season. This is the team that does whatever it takes to get a win. They missed an ATS cover in their season opener by just a half-point. Prior to that, they covered five straight and seven of their previous nine games. Speaking of covering, the Arizona Cardinals are one of the worst teams against the spread in the NFL. Yes, they did get a surprise victory as nearly a double-digit underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers last week. But I think they come back down to Earth now. I think they’re in a big letdown situation here. Going back to their not being able to cover the spread, a season ago this team failed to cover their final five outings, and going back a bit further eight of the previous nine overall games. They might’ve held the Chargers in check last week. But I think we can all agree the Chargers didn’t look like the team we expected them to be. I doubt very much this Cardinals defense is going to be able to slow down. let alone stop the well-balanced Seahawks offense. I expect this game to get out of hand. Take Seattle Seahawks. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Losing to the New York Jets in what they felt was going to be an easy win for the Tennessee Titans last week, is going to sting a while. I doubt very much this team is built to come back from such a devastating loss. Now they have to face a very well-balanced Philadelphia Eagles visitor here who looked pretty good in their season opening victory over the Washington Commanders, 24-22. I know the Eagles have never won in Nashville, but their defense will throw a lot of different schemes at QB Cam Ward, who I think we can all agree has fallen way short of expectations. Offensively, the Eagles will give the Titans a big dose of running back Saquon Barkley, which will allow Jalen Hurts to open up the passing game. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

New England Patriots.

The New England Patriots, despite a 13-10 season opening a loss on the road at the Seattle Seahawks are expected to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. This is a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. That loss back on September 9 to the defending Super Bowl champions, will light a fire under this team and prompt them to come out here and make a statement. They had a few extra days to rest, and prepare than their opponent. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened up the campaign taking down the Atlanta Falcons at home, 20-13. But this team leaves a lot to be desired. I know Aaron Rodgers looked decent last week. However, he is still a 42-year-old quarterback, and going up against this fierce and ferocious defense, especially looking for redemption from their season opening defeat, is going to be fatal for the aging play-caller. On the flipside of the ball, Pittsburgh will be without cornerback, Joey Porter Jr, which will allow Drake Maye to air the ball out down field. Throw into the mix running back TreVeyon Henderson, who did not play in their first game, will be back in the mix. Take the New England Patriots. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Playing their first regular season game in their new stadium, I expect the Bills and their faithful fans to come out here in full force. That by itself gives this team a big edge in this matchup. Throw into the mix they’ve taken five consecutive meetings in this rivalry and I feel they’re going to come in here confident. A big mistake made by sports bettors, is judging teams from their previous weeks performance. However, I feel it’s hard to ignore how well balanced the Bills offense was as they downed the Texans on the road 36-31. This is a team that looks good, my friends. Meanwhile, the Lions prevailed at home against the Saints, 31-30. Their defense still allowed New Orleans to put up 30 big points. This is obviously a big test for both teams. However, I think it’s a tougher test for Detroit on the road following a slim victory over a lesser opponent. Buffalo will have their loud and crazy fans playing a big part in this one. Take the Bills. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

NFC EAST MM.

Game 476.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Falling short last season, following a Super Bowl title, cannot sit well with the Philadelphia Eagles at all. I mean last year they did make it to the Wildcard round but lost to San Francisco 49ers. This is a team that came out of the gate a season ago winning their first four games and going 3-1 against the number. There is no love lost between these two Division rivals. But I think we can all agree the Washington Commanders have a lot of concerns. Playing against a team that is 5-1 and their last five season openers is going to prove fatal for the visiting team here. Granted, both teams have some new coaches, some very young coaches. But we still have two very experienced very successful head coaches facing off against one another here. The Commanders have serious concerns as I mentioned a moment ago, with quarterback Daniels coming off an injury-plagued 2025 campaign. They did go out and get Mariota in the backup roll just in case. Now Washington does have some very tough opponents coming up next in Dallas, Seattle, and Indianapolis all over the next month or so. Philadelphia has Tennessee, Chicago, and then Los Angeles Rams. Now it’s not too much easier. But it’s certainly not gonna’ put them in a “look ahead” mode. Following last year’s disappointing ending for the Eagles, I feel like they come out here in front of their home crowd, and make a statement not just to the rest of the Division, but to the rest of the NFC. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

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Detroit Lions.

TD PLAY.

Game 470.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

It’s no secret the Detroit Lions fell way short of expectations last season. They started off the campaign 4-1 both straight up and against the spread before injuries began to take their toll on this team. Finishing that way cannot sit well with the Lions coaching staff, players, franchise, or fans. Now they come in just about at full force, despite still having some concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Please understand even though they finished 9-8 last season, they had the third-best scoring differential in the NFC only trailing the two NFC Championship teams. I understand the New Orleans Saints are going to go with Tyler Shough. But in my opinion, it doesn’t matter who is at helm for this team. I understand there’s nowhere for this offensive unit to go but improve. But how much can they actually improve? Not only are the Lions playing at home in front of their very loyal fan base, but they did add a few key players to both sides of the line of scrimmage. I feel their aggressive offensive style will be too much for the Saints defense here. One more item, my friends, the New Orleans Saints projected starters did not play a single snap in the preseason. They’re gonna’ come in here cold and rusty and must line up across a team with something to prove early on, in front of a very angry and loud stadium. I feel no matter what questions the Lions have on defense, they can and will keep the Saints modest offense in check. Take the Detroit Lions. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Yes, we all know both Seattle and New England were not favored to be in the Super Bowl this season. But yet, they both deserve to be here. The Seahawks are 16-3 overall this season, while the Patriots possess a 17-3 record. Both teams have covered 14 games this season, and both are excellent playing away from home. Seattle enters this matchup winning nine consecutive games and covering six of their last eight, while New England has won six in a row, covering five of those six. Both offenses are explosive, and both defenses are among the best in the NFL. There is no question that there are a few things that certainly stand out to me. For starters, Seattle has a much more experienced and seasoned quarterback, especially in the postseason than does New England. Sam Darnold started in this league in 2018, and has over 90 starts under his belt, while Drake Maye has just 29 starts at the helm. I'm not looking to take away anything from Maye’s talent or ability, but when you get to this platform, experience especially in the postseason plays a big part. Both offenses have solid ground games, and an arsenal of receivers. I do feel, the more complete running back lines up in the Seahawks backfield in Kenneth Walker III. As I mentioned a moment ago, both defenses are among the best in the league. But the Seahawks stop-unit is a lot stronger against the run, which tells me they can force some three-and-outs. One more thing my friends, the Seattle defense has also snagged 18 takeaways to just 10 takeaways for the New England "D". I believe this game will be won with experience, a solid ground game, the defense that is better against the run, and the stop-unit that forces more turnovers. And in my opinion, all those point to the Seattle Seahawks. Thank you.

Los Angeles Rams.

Game 393.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Yes, Los Angeles has to travel for this matchup. And yes again, the weather is possibly going to be frigid, windy, and snowy. But that's where the benefits for the home team ends. I am aware Los Angeles doesn't have a ton of cold weather experience. But last January, they did play the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles on the road very tough. As a matter of fact, it came down to the wire in the Divisional playoff game with the home team prevailing, 28-22. They enter this matchup winning their last two games including a hard-fought road victory over the Carolina Panthers eight days ago, 34-31. As far as the Bears go, they certainly deserve to be here. But let's face it, did they really win last week or did the Packers just fall apart? In my opinion it's the later. Yes, the Chicago defense is tops in the NFL in takeaways. But they rank 23rd in points allowed, 27th against the rush, 22nd against the pass, and 29th in total yards allowed. This does not bode well as they're going up against one of the most complete and well-balanced offensive units in pro football. Los Angeles tops the league in scoring, ranks number one in yards, number one in passing, and number seven in rushing. They also don't turn the ball over a ton. Both teams can run the ball with efficiency which will be a major factor here if the weather is as expected. But something I want you to know my friends, the Rams are much better against the rush than the Bears. This was a weakness for Chicago all season long. Not only that, but Chicago, prior to this weekend, had the worst record against current playoff teams. Guess who had the best? That's right my friends, Los Angeles had the best record prior to this weekend against current playoff teams. As I mentioned a moment ago, the Bears defense on paper isn't as good as many people think. Let's not sell short how good the Rams stop-unit is as just last week they held the Panthers to 0-3 on fourth down. This is a defense that has come up big when needed. Their offense is so good and so well-balanced that they keep opponents defenses on the field and their opponents offenses off of it. There is also no comparison in the playoff experience Matthew Stafford has over Caleb Williams. And my friends, trust me when I tell you postseason experience by a quarterback and team leader is huge. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Game 390.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

There are enough reasons on the surface to play Seattle here. For starters, they had an extra week off to rest, heal, and prepare. Next, they are playing at home at Lumen Field which is arguably one of the loudest and craziest places in all of sports for a visitor to come into and try to compete. Then there's the fact Seattle knows that they took down San Francisco in the most recent matchup just a few weeks ago on the road. But there's one more factor, and the earlier meeting back at the beginning of September in Seattle, on their very own field, the Seahawks lost to the 49ers in a heartbreaker. So revenge also motivates this team as well. They don't lose too many games at home. Granted the road team has done very well as a visitor this season as well. Let's also throw into the mix San Francisco played just six days ago in Philadelphia, to a hard-fought four-point victory. However, they then had to travel across the country up to Seattle for this matchup. As I mentioned earlier, the Seahawks had a week off to rest, heal, and prepare for this matchup. This is a big edge for this team, my friends. Now let's talk specifics. The 49ers lost starting tight end and one of their biggest contributors, George Kittle who tore his achilles in the win over the Eagles last week. I believe their head coach Kyle Shanahan has really done it with smoke and mirrors this season and deserves a lot of praise. But without Kittle, Brock Purdy's go-to guy, this offense becomes more one-dimensional. While I feel Christian McCaffrey is one of the most valuable players to his team in the NFL, let's be honest, this team ranks 24th in the league in rushing. They must go up against the third-best rushing defenses in the NFL. Both teams turn the ball over quite a bit. But I think the big difference here will be on the defense side of the ball where San Francisco has only forced six turnovers, compared to the 18 turnovers forced by the Seattle defense. Let's face it, their defense is far superior topping the league in points allowed, only giving up 17.2 PPG, is better rested, is healthier, and is much more ferocious. Take the Seahawks. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

Game 380.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Buffalo might've taken down Jacksonville at home last season, but they have not won in Jacksonville since 2013. We also must come to the realization the Bills are not the same team on the road as they are at home. There are 5–-3 overall as a guest this season, but when it comes to the playoffs, let's be honest, Josh Allen is 0-4 both SU and ATS on the road in the playoffs. The Jaguars enter this matchup winning and covering eight consecutive outings including all four games played on their own field during that span. Their defense has been stellar, not allowing a single opponent to post better than 24-points since early-November. The Buffalo offense revolves around its ground game. But they're going to be in for some issues in this matchup as they go up against the leagues No.1 run defense. Overall, the Jacksonville stop-unit is one of the best in the NFL, yielding just 19.8 PPG and snagging 22 takeaways. Yes, the Bills are a solid team. However, their track record in the postseason is less than impressive. Offensively, I feel the Jaguars will give a big dose of their ground game, to open up their passing attack. Please understand, on the flipside their defense has been one of the best in the NFL for quite a while now, they're great at forcing turnovers, and must be salivating knowing they get a crack at an offense here that has committed 19 turnovers. I'll take the home team. Take the Jaguars. Thank you.

Carolina Panthers.

Game 376.

1:30 PM PST/4:30 PM EST.

My friends, winning on the road in the NFL postseason is no small task. Winning and covering on the road in the postseason is even a tougher test. You know what the toughest task of all is? Winning and covering on the road is a double-digit favorite in the postseason. While I believe the Rams will win this game, laying double-digits I feel prompt us to take the home underdog here. The Rams are just 5-4 as a visitor this season failing to cover two of their last four played as a guest. I know the Panthers offense sputtered the last several weeks. But this is a that is 5-3 this season straight up at home and took the only meeting against today's opponent back at the end of November also at home, 31-28. The Los Angeles defense seems to be a little fatigued and a little overworked, as they have allowed 34, 38, 27, and 20-points in consecutive contests. On paper, the Rams offense is one of the most explosive in the NFL. But they do make some costly mistakes, and are facing a defense that has played some decent football over the last month of the regular season. I just feel this is way too many points to give a very game Panthers team at home. By the way, they have also covered both games played this season as a double-digit doggie. Take Carolina. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

AFC EAST GOM.

Game 348.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

While the Buffalo Bills can certainly better their postseason situation with a victory here today, the New York Jets are in line for a very nice draft pick. Having said that, reports are Josh Allen might just see a small amount of action to keep his consecutive game start streak alive. But even he does not see any action at all, I still feel the Bills are the play here. The Jets possess one of the worst teams in all of the NFL, going 3-13 straight up this season. This is a team that has just one win since the first week of November losing four in a row and six of their last seven SU, and failing to cover their last four outings. Those six losses in those last seven games came by 13, 13, 24, 28, 21, and 32 points. Their offense is non-existent and their defense has been steamrolled. Meanwhile, the Bills come off their first loss following a four-game win streak. They're playing at home where they are 6-2 this season, and I feel even though the number went up a little bit this week the line is still very short. The Buffalo will be motivated by trying to get out of the number seven seed. The difference between being the number seven seed and a likely trip to New England versus the number five or six seed and a possible trip to either Pittsburgh or Jacksonville is big. They have dominated the Jets taking four in a row and eight of the last 10 SU, covering four in a row and six of those 10 meetings. Trust me when I tell you their head coach and the team wants to go into the postseason with a little confidence as well, and this is just a game to do just. Both teams can run the ball with efficiency, while both defenses are a little lax against the rush. However, no matter who is at the helm for New York (likely Brady Cook, check status), they rank dead-last in passing in the NFL. They go up against the league's top pass defense. Something else I want you to know, the Jets defense ranks 30th in points allowed and has forced zero turnovers this season. They don't post too much of a threat to opposing offenses and their quarterbacks. I feel this game will get out of hand, I feel Buffalo needs a big confidence boost, and I feel that their coach and the team really want to get out of the playoff situation basement. One more item folks:  this will be the Bills final game played ay Highmark Stadium and certainly want to end their tenure there on a high-note. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

GOM.

Game 428.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Philadelphia clinched their division with last week’s, 29-18 victory over Washington. Buffalo, with four consecutive wins and seven victories over their last eight outings, can still catch New England in the AFC East as they have a lot to play for. The Bills are 16-1 straight up at home since the start of last season. It's true, the Eagles have taken three straight against the Bills going back a decade, which includes a late-November 2023 OT victory, 37-34. But I think we can all agree despite Philadelphia possessing a 10-5 record, Jalen Hurts just isn't the same. Because the passing game has diminished quite a bit, opponents are loading up against the run. I will admit the Buffalo defense has been hit or miss, no pun intended. But I believe they step up big in this matchup because they know what is on the line here. I doubt very much Hurts and the 23rd-ranked passing attack in the NFL will do any damage in the air against the second-best pass defense in the league especially because there is supposed to be (check status) inclement weather. While the Eagles do rely heavily upon the rush, and this is a place where the Bills defense has struggled, I just don't see it happening here. On the flipside, Buffalo enters this matchup with the top rushing attack in the NFL and will absolutely steamroll the 21st-ranked run defense of Philadelphia. They will control the clock and the tempo, keeping their opponents’ “D” on the field.  Overall, I believe the Eagles defensive statistics are a little skewed. They are third in scoring “D”, but 24th in yards per pass against and 21st in yards per carry against. I look for Josh Allen to have one of his best performances of the campaign. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

AFC SOUTH BEST BET.

Game 423.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Both AFC South combatants need a victory here. The Colts are fighting to stay alive, and the Jaguars are fighting to clinch the division, and possibly even one of the best records in the conference. Jacksonville enters this match up winning six in a row straight up and against the spread. To say they have dominated this series would be an understatement. They have taken six of the last eight SU, covering six of those eight as well. This includes a December 7 home victory, 36-19. Meanwhile the Colts have been one of the most disappointing teams the second half of this season. After starting the campaign 7-1, they have now dropped five in a row and six of their last seven. They have also failed to cover five of those last seven as well. Their defense is overworked and tired and getting steamrolled. Meanwhile their offense is lackluster at best. Yes, the Phillip Rivers comeback story has been a nice story. But he is still a very old quarterback and has to face one of the most frustrating and fierce defenses in football. The Jaguars allow a mere 20.8 PPG, and have forced 19 turnovers. They top the NFL against the rush. They do leave a bit to the desired against the pass. But I don't think that's gonna’ matter in this matchup. Offensively, they've been very consistent all season long, ranking in the top-10 in scoring, posting an average of 27.3 PPG. It's hard to deny the success of Trevor Lawrence this season and they have a solid ground attack in Travis Etienne jr. With their final regular season game coming next week at home against the Titans, I expect the Jaguars to come out here with something to prove. If they were due for a letdown, it would've happened against a very competent, Broncos team last week. But they came out and got the job done. During their current six-game win streak, they’ve yielded just 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile their offense has taken it to another level. They are truly motivated, and are far superior in this matchup. Take Jacksonville. Thank you.

New England Patriots.

TD PLAY.

Game 115.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

New England will come in here angry looking to redeem themselves coming off their first loss since the third week of September. They had a 10-game win streak end in their last outing as they gave away 24-7 halftime lead to eventually lose to buffalo, 35-31. That was also the most points they've allowed all season long as their defense is one of the most frustrating in the NFL, ranking seventh overall, yielding just 19.7 PPG. I understand Baltimore following a two game straight up slide, got a big 24-0 victory last week on the road at Cincinnati. But this is the same team that also failed to cover four straight prior to last week’s win. They are just 3-5 straight up at home this season and are playing a team that's a perfect 6-0 on the road. Prior to last week's blanking of the Bengals, the Ravens defense got plowed for a combined 59 points in their two previous outings against some less than stellar offenses. Next week they have Green Bay on the road before they finish up their regular season schedule on the road against their arrival Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Patriots have the Jets up next on the road before finishing their schedule at home against the Dolphins. They can certainly win out and finish with the best record in their division, and one of the best overall records in the AFC. I expect their defense to frustrate an erratic Ravens offense. I also expect their very well-balanced offensive unit which averages over 27.3 PPG, to move the chains at will, and light up the scoreboard here. Take New England. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

Game 126.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Let's be honest, while Pittsburgh is always a formidable foe, they lose a little luster when they travel. The Steelers are just 3-3 on the road this season, and they failed to cover three of their last four games played as a guest. Meanwhile, they go into Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions who are 5-2 at home on the campaign. Yes, they have failed to cover four of their last five games, but this team is money coming off a loss. They took a tough 41-34 road defeat last week at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams. They are a remarkable 11-0 SU, and 10-1 ATS at home coming off a loss going back to 2022. Statistically, they rank in the top few in just about every offensive category including scoring in which they top the NFL averaging over 30.6 PPG. They commit very few turnovers which they also lead the league. Their offense is so well-balanced, most defenses have problems anyway. However, the Steelers defense is getting burned both in the air and on the ground. Things do not look good for this team here. They also lost TJ Watt which will be huge for them here. Aaron Rodgers doesn't have young legs anymore, and to be honest despite coming off decent outings the last two weeks, is in for a long day here. I look for the Detroit team led by a very smart head coach, to do what they need to do the not just win, but win big. Take the Lions. Thank you.

Carolina Panthers.

NFC SOUTH BEST BET.

Game 116.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

This is a big game for both Tampa Bay and Carolina. They are both tied at 7-7 sitting atop the NFC South. But for the life of me, I can't figure out why the Buccaneers are this much of a favorite on the road. Let's face it, this is a team that has dropped two in a row and five of their last six straight up, failing to cover all six of those outings. This does include losses and no covers in both road games played during that span. Yes, they've had their way in this rivalry, taking five in a row SU. But I feel the Panthers catch them at the right time. This is a team that's played well at home going 4-2 SU on their own field this season, and have covered six of their last 10 outings which does include three of five played on their own field. The Tampa Bay offense is struggling resulting in a defense that's overworked and tired. Their numbers on offense are lackluster at best ranking in the bottom third in just about every category while they are 30th on defense against the pass, and 24th in points allowed. I feel Carolina can come in here and not just compete but win with the ninth-ranked rushing attack in the league, control the clock and the tempo, and keep their opponents defense on the field and their offense off it. Take the Panthers. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

HI ROLLER PLAY.

Game 119.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Cowboys playoff hopes are dwindling while the Chargers, believe it or not at 10-4, still need to win. Los Angeles enters this matchup winning three in a row and six of their last 7 SU, covering five of those seven games, but is still behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. Following this week's matchup with the Cowboys, they have a home game against the Texans then finish up the regular season against the Broncos. Victories are something this team needs and they need them now. They face a Dallas Cowboys team that has lost and failed to cover their last two outings despite possessing one of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL. No matter what they do on offense, their defense ranks 32nd against the pass, 18th against the rush, 29th in total yard allowed, and 31st in points allowed. They've also forced just six turnovers. To be honest with you, I don't feel Dak Prescott is the guy that can take them to the next level. Just as I felt Tony Romo wasn't the guy either. When must-win situations occur, Prescott falls way short. This is a team that is overvalued each preseason, while always finishing the regular season underachieving. The Chargers offense is solid. But their defense is outstanding. They rank in the top-10 in every single category defensively and have forced 17 turnovers to boot. You can't pass on them, and running against them is almost as difficult. They allow a mere 20.3 PPG and have held some very good offenses in check this season. They are rolling, need to win, and have what it takes to come out victorious in this matchup. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Cowboys.

Following a four-game loss and no cover streak, the Minnesota Vikings came up big last week and blanked the Washington Commander at home, 31-0. Well, this is a team that has lost and failed to cover the last several games played as a visitor. I do feel that when they travel. they lose a little luster and they are due for a letdown. Meanwhile, following a three-game win and cover streak against some good opponents, Dallas got outgunned 10 days ago on the road at the hands of the Detroit Lions, 44-30. I feel they bounce back here in a big way, coming in better rested and better prepared. No matter what you say about the Cowboys, their offense can score points. They rank third in the NFL averaging over 29.3 points per game, with the league’s top passing unit. I just don't see the lackluster Vikings offense which averages under 20 points per game, (19.6 PPG) keeping pace on the scoreboard. Something else do you need to know, the Minnesota offense ranks dead last in mistakes committing 26 turnovers. I think that is just as astounding. I feel the Cowboys defense which has gotten beat quite a bit this season will come up big in this matchup and create some turnovers. Meanwhile, I just don't see the Minnesota defense even slowing down the juggernaut which is the Cowboys offense, as they rank 22nd against the rush, and 30th in takeaways with just five. Dallas gets a big win and cover at home. Take the Cowboys. Thank you.

Chargers.

I do put some stock in revenge matchups. However, I just don't see that happening here. Los Angeles took down Kansas City in Week 1 of this regular season, 27-21. What I do put more stock in is riding a hot team and fading a cold one. Currently, the Chargers are playing great football, winning five of their last six straight up and covering four of those six while Kansas City is on a 1-4 SU run, failing to cover five consecutive outings. Checking the injury reports, Kansas City is missing quite a few key players. And I do feel last week's win by Los Angeles over Philadelphia, in which they allowed seven sacks, will be remedied here this week. I expect their offensive line to come up big and their defense to further frustrate a struggling Kansas City offense. The LAC stop-unit is equally good against the pass as they are against the run, and have forced 15 turnovers already. I think this will be a competitive matchup, certainly a lot closer than the pointspread. Take the Chargers. Thank you.

Bears

The Chicago Bears certainly redeem themselves following losses. From September until October, they won four straight and fell badly on the road at the Baltimore Ravens. However, they bounced right back to win five straight games before last week’s 28-21 loss to their division rival, the Green Bay Packers. This is a team that certainly knows how to bounce back, especially at home where they are 4-1 this season. Following last week's loss, I expect them to bounce back in a big way here with a hungry defense going up against a rookie quarterback. Yes, Shadeur Sanders has put up some impressive numbers but it is still a rookie and is prone to making mistakes. Please understand Cleveland is just 1-5 on the road this season and doesn't need any help making mistakes as they have committed 17 turnovers on offense. This does not bode well when you're going up against a defense that leads the league forcing 18 turnovers. Take Chicago. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

You know folks, a lot of people are gonna’ put some stock in the fact Philadelphia lost back-to-back games and must win here tonight. But they have an offense that is struggling badly, and a defense that has allowed 48 points over the last two outings. Saquon Barkley is not contributing at all, which seriously hurts the offensive unit. As a matter of fact, over the last two weeks he's accounted for a combined 78 total rushing yards. Because the offense is so lackluster, their defense is a bit overworked and tired. That's not the case with the home team here. As a matter of fact, the November 30th, 31-14 home victory for Los Angeles over Las Vegas, is the only game they've played up until this point over the last 22 days. This team has had time to rest, heal, and prepare for this matchup. They need victories right now as the team is 8-4, and plays a tough schedule for the remainder of the regular season. This team is striding at the right time. They have won four of their last five straight up, including wins and covers in three straight home games. Their defense is playing very well. As a matter of fact, in those four victories in the last five games, they have yielded an average of 13.5 PPG, while getting to opposing quarterbacks. Offensively, Justin Herbert bounced back from a broken left hand very smoothly. This team is also one of the best in the league at hogging the football, ranking second in time of possession. Running back, Omarion Hampton is expected (check status) to play tonight. This will certainly bolster an offense that is starting to really stride. On the defensive side of the ball, you can expect the Chargers third-ranked pass defense, to frustrate Jalen Hurts and the lackluster passing offense of the Eagles. Los Angeles playing at home, and having Philadelphia travel across the country will be a factor as well. Take the Chargers. Thank you.

Houston Texans.

LATE BAILOUT.

Game 143.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

I am sure there are those out there that feel the Kansas City Chiefs are in a "due for" situation. I mean, they're just 6-6 with only a handful of games remaining in the regular season, dropping three of their last four straight up, and all four against the spread. Yes, there are 5-1 at Arrowhead Stadium this season, and have dominated the Houston Texans winning five in a row. But Houston enters this matchup red hot, winning four in a row and seven of their last nine straight up, covering six of those nine. CJ Stroud looked sharp in his return last week, throwing for 276 yards, and having a luxury of a ground game that ran for over 100 yards in their road victory at the Indianapolis Coast, 20-16. Throw into the mix the Kansas City Chiefs team is seriously banged up, and maybe without several key contributors (check status), and I feel the Chiefs are once again in trouble. Maybe they are due for a win but that doesn't mean they are going to get that win. I'm sure we can all agree Kansas City isn’t the team that we are used to seeing them be. Even last week, they had a chance to win in Dallas but fell short. Where they were once almost unstoppable in one-score contests, this year they're just 1-6 in that situation. By the way if you're keeping stats, that's the worst since 2009 for them. I feel Patrick Mahomes is going to have further issues against the NFL's top defense. Take the Houston Texans. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

NFC NORTH GOM.

Game 134.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

My friends, I understand why (as of posting this play), most of the general public is coming in in Chicago here. The team has won five in a row and nine of their last 10. Why shouldn't the general public be all over them? I'll tell you why, my friends, because Green Bay is a much better team. There are a few key factors that prompt me to take the home team here. First of all, they are playing at home in a very hostile environment for any visitor, especially the hated Bears. Secondly, they're looking for a little revenge as after nine consecutive victories in this division rivalry, Green Bay dropped last January’s matchup at home on the very same field to Chicago, 24-22. Lastly, this is one of the better defenses the Bears have had to face in quite a while. Oh, wait my friends, there is more. Chicago has also had problems against NFC North opponents going 1-2 against the division this season while Green Bay is a perfect 3-0 in the division in 2025. I see quarterback Jordan Love riding momentum from a Thanksgiving Day victory over the Detroit Lions on the road, in which he threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns. The Chicago defense is overworked and at a big disadvantage here. The well-balanced offense of Green Bay will light up the scoreboard in this matchup while their defense takes care of the rest. Take the Packers. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

AFC SOUTH BEST BET.

Game 132.

10:00 AM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Two of the better teams in the AFC, happened to both reside in the same division, at the AFC South. On Sunday, the Colts travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, who happen to be tied at 8-4. There is a big difference here, one team is struggling while the other is striding. Indianapolis has dropped two in a row and three of their last four straight up, failing to cover three of those four as well. Jacksonville is red hot, winning and covering three in a row. The Jaguars have covered three of the last four most recent meetings with the Colts, as the last two matchups have each been decided by three-points. I don't know if you're aware, but the Colts never win in Jacksonville going 0-10 SU the last 10 games played down there. I look for one of the most frustrating defenses in the NFL, to contain an Indy offense that has accounted for a combined 36 points the last two weeks. I just don't see them keeping pace on the scoreboard in this matchup either, as the Jaguars "O" has averaged 29.0 PPG during their current win streak. Take the Jaguars. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

AFC GOW.

Game 142.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Short and sweet, guys. Cincinnati, following a four=game slide, took down Baltimore in their last outing on the road, 32-14, back on November 27. They come back down to earth here. They travel to Orchard Park to face a Buffalo Bills opponent that is still one of the best teams in the NFL, and desperately needs to put some wins in the plus column. It's true, Buffalo has struggled a bit this season. But their offense is absolutely crushing it, leading the team to four victories in their last six outings. They might be missing a key contributor on offense (check status), but this team is a smart team, a deep team, is at home, and does what it takes to win this time of year. How about a little payback as well, my friends? The Bengals have taken six of the last eight meetings in this AFC rivalry going back 14 years. This includes the two most recent, January 2023 and November 2023. That January matchup saw Cincinnati devour Buffalo, 27-10, on their own field, and end their season.  The way the Bills “O” is surging, and the fact they lineup across from the 32nd-ranked, that's right the worst defense in the NFL allowing 31.2 PPG, I feel this game will get out of hand. The top-ranked running game in football will move the chains on the ground, and allow Josh Allen to open up the passing game. Take the Buffalo Bills. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

TOUCHDOWN PLAY.

Game 129.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Seahawks can very well be the first team in the NFC to earn 10 victories. They currently sit at 9-3 in the NFC West, tied with the Los Angeles Rams. And, I will tell you this team can certainly finish the regular season with one of the best overall records in the conference. After this week they have a home game against the Colts, followed by another home game against their division rival the Rams, then two road games to finish out the regular season at the Panthers and the 49ers. Everything starts with a victory here this week. They face a Falcons opponent that has dropped six of their last seven straight up, just 2-3 at home this season, and has only covered five games in 2025. Let me remind you Seattle is one of the best road teams in the NFL going 5-1 as a visitor in 2025, covering five of those six games played as a guest as well. Last season’s matchup saw them prevail on the road on this very same field, 34-14. Atlanta is a train wreck. Their offense is horrible and their defense is overworked. On both sides of the line of scrimmage they are outclassed. Let's face it, Seattle ranks fourth in scoring averaging 29.2 PPG, and third in points allowed, allowing just 18.1 PPG. This game gets ugly. Take the Seahawks. Thank you.

Broncos.

If you would have been asked in the preseason which team would have a 9-2 record and which team would have a 3-8 record thus far, you would've said Washington would have the better mark, while Denver would be struggling. But that's not the case here. The Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL winning eight in a row and going 5-3 against the spread during that time. With a combination of a surging offense and a defense that is downright ferocious, I can see them dominating one of the biggest disappointments this season, the Commanders. Washington is now on a six-game losing streak both SU/ATS, and just can't do anything right. Momentum plays a big part in the NFL, right now Denver has momentum.

Bills.

Dropping their last outing nine days ago on the road at the Texans, the Bills must come back here and put a big victory up against a Steelers team that has dropped four of their last six overall. It's true, Buffalo has won and covered each of the last two meetings against Pittsburgh, and as I mentioned earlier are in a must-win situation here. I feel Josh Allen will absolutely pick apart the 31st ranked past defense of Pittsburgh, while the Buffalo defense comes up back here following several lackluster performances.

Texans.

Yes, the Colts are 6-0 at home this season and 2-0 against division opponents. However, I believe they're coming in here a bit overvalued by oddsmakers as they have failed to cover two of their last three outings. They have lost the last three meetings against the Texans, all close games but still lost all three. Houston enters this matchup red hot winning three in a row and six of their last eight straight up. Very quietly, their defense ranks in the top five in every single category. Their stop unit will frustrate the top scoring offense in the league. On the flipside, the Colts are getting absolutely decimated in the air with their secondary which ranks 28th in the NFL. I think this game comes down to the wire and possibly even the visitor winning out right. But I will take the points with Houston.

Dolphins.

We've waited for the Dolphins to start getting hot, and they are. They've won and covered their last two outings both at home, against the Bills and Commanders. They now host one of the poorest teams in the NFL, the Saints. New Orleans is just 2-9 straight up, covering only three of their 11 games this season, and sporting a 1-4 road record. With the way the Miami “O” has found their rhythm is starting to surge, and a defense that had has held two solid offensive units at bay, I just don't see the visitor here keeping pace. I mean they average just 15 points per game, and they're gonna’ have trouble against the stout Miami “D”. Yes, the Dolphins have their own issues on offense, but they will come in here with confidence having taken down two formidable opponents in the last two outings.

Jaguars.

The Jaguars are putting themselves in a position for a nice post season slot. They have won two in a row and three of their last four straight up, which does include road victories in two of three during that span. Compare that to the Titans 0-6 home record, and it makes you think. Tennessee is just atrocious. Maybe they have covered three in a row, but let's face it, they were ‘dogs of 10, 5.5, and 13 points. The Titans offense is nonexistent, ranking 30th in scoring averaging just 15.2 points per game, and have committed 14 turnovers. The rank 30th in passing in 32nd in rushing which really does concern me even more. They do not have any ground attack whatsoever to keep a defense honest. It really wouldn't matter here as the Jaguars stop unit tops the league against the rush. I just don't see how the home team can compete here on the scoreboard at all.

Chicago Bears.

Chicago comes into this matchup one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning four in a row and eight of their last nine straight up, covering seven of those nine outings. Meanwhile, Philadelphia was running hot winning and covering four straight before last week's debacle. The Eagle’s had a 21-0 lead over the Cowboys, only to fall apart, and drop the game 24-21. I do feel they'll come out with something to prove in this matchup, and they have dominated this rivalry taking six in a row straight up going back more than a dozen years, but this is way too many points to give a surging Bears team that is finding no one improved ways to win.

Baltimore Ravens

Game 310.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

Without question, the Cincinnati Bengals might be one of the most disappointing teams this season. Granted their quarterback has been sidelined, and one of their best receivers did serve a suspension. But regardless even when this team was at full strength, they weren’t all that great. There are just 3-8 straight up covering just four of their 11 outings this season, lo losing four in a row and eight of their last nine games. They have been disastrous as a road team, going 1-4 straight up failing to cover four of those five games played as a guest as well. Quarterback Joe Burrow is expected to be at the helm and receiver Ja'Marr Chase will be returning from suspension. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens are rolling, winning five in a row straight up covering three of those five games, as their offense is surging, and their defense has been downright nasty. They have the confidence of knowing they have taken the last four meetings against the visitor, covering three of those four against the spread. Running back, Derrick Henry has a chance to surpass some big names on the all-time rushing list, as he leads the sixth-ranked running attack in the NFL. I feel the Cincinnati defenses in real trouble here, ranking 31st against the run. They also have no rushing game whatsoever offensively to keep a defense honest. Having said that, just looking at their defensive statistics, the ranked 32nd in yards allowed, 32nd against the pass, 31st against the rush, and 32nd in points allowed. Lay the wood and take your bookmaker's money.

Kansas City Chiefs.

Game 307/308.

1:30 PM PST/4:30 PM EST.

Well sports fans, I'm gonna’ keep this analysis just like me, very short and extremely sweet (lol). We all know the Chiefs are not the Chiefs team we have come accustomed to watching. They are sporting a 6-5 straight up record, which includes a 1-4 mark on the road this season. But this matchup is a big game for Kansas City. Following back-to-back losses, last week at home, they took down a formable foe in the Indianapolis Colts, 23-20. Meanwhile, for the first time this season, the Dallas Cowboys have won back-to-back games. We all saw them come back from a 21-0 deficit to take down their division rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles at home, 24-21. But this team comes back down to Earth this week and is in a huge letdown situation. Yes, it's no secret Dallas possesses a top-five scoring offense behind the number one passing attack in the NFL. But they've turned the ball over 14 times, and their defense, let me put it this way, their less than stellar defense, to an insult to injury, is overworked, fatigued and will be outclassed in this matchup. Their so-called stop unit ranks 30th against the pass, 22nd against the rush, and 31st in points allowed, getting steamrolled for over 28.5 PPG, and to go one further, have forced just five turnovers this season. Patrick Mahomes knows how to win. The team knows this is a must-win situation. I see the Kansas City second-ranked passing attack picking apart the Dallas secondary here, while they're outstanding defense does the rest.

Green Bay Packers.

Game 305.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the Detroit Lions are playing at home on Thanksgiving. Guys, last year was their first victory on Thanksgiving Day following seven consecutive losing Turkey Days as they eked out a three-point win over the Chicago Bears. They got lit up last week, despite winning straight but, against the lowly New York Giants yielding over 517 yards of offense. Yes, they did come out victorious, but let's not forget they are seriously overvalued. They have failed to cover two in a row and four of their last six games, which does include their last two games played on their own field. Green Bay enters this matchup winning two in a row, and will be brimming with confidence knowing they took a September 7 meeting against Detroit at home, 27-13. That was their second consecutive cover in this rivalry and their third over the last four matchups. I think the Lions are a solid team with a bright future ahead of them. Having said that, yes, they do score a few more points than the visitor does, but they have also turned the ball over a few more times as well. Defensively, I feel a team that gave up so many yards last week to the lowly Giants, and the defense that's gotten plowed quite a few times this season is going to be in over their heads here. Yes, Green Bay ranks in the middle of the road, both in the air on the ground offensively, but they are humming right now. They also enter this contest possessing top five defense in just about every major category, which does include points allowed, yielding just 18.4 PPG. Let's not forget Detroit is just 5-16 straight up and 7-13-1 against the spread in their last 21 games played on Thanksgiving Day. They are also just 1-2 against the NFC North this season and face the only team in the division that is undefeated in division play. By the way, the Packers are also 5-2-1 against NFC opponents this season. This game will be a competitive one, but I'm taking the points.

Packers.

Revenge is a dish best served cold, my friends. And today, this is an ideal situation for the Packers to exact some revenge on the Vikings, who won and covered both meetings a season ago. Minnesota is struggling, dropping two in a row and four of their last five, both straight up and against the spread. Their offense has accounted for an average of just 17.0 PPG during those four defeats. Meanwhile, because of their lack of offensive production, their defense is overworked, tired, and getting steamrolled. Meanwhile, Green Bay, following two very tough three-point losses both at home at the hands of Carolina and Philadelphia, came out a week ago on the road and bested the New York Giants by a touchdown. They are getting back on track, my friends as they know they want this division. They do have the Lions on the road up next, but I don't think this team is going to be a look ahead mode. I mean if that was the case, the Vikings go on the road next week and play the Seahawks. Minnesota does not have either an explosive passing attack or a powerful rushing game to keep defenses honest. As a matter of fact, because of their lack luster offense, they have turned the ball over a whopping 18 times already. That would be enough for me in this matchup, but their defense is overworked and tired, and have forced just three takeaways. I look for the well-balanced Packers offense to move the chains with ease, while they're seventh-ranked defense does the rest.

Patriots.

I know this line is teetering around a very hot number. However, it's not going to matter. The Bengals are absolutely atrocious, going 1-7 straight up, and just 2-6 against the spread since mid-September. They have lost and failed to cover three of their four games played during that span at home. Their offense is lackluster, and their defense ranks 32nd in the league getting plowed for over 33.4 points per game. Meanwhile, in comes the New England Patriots, the hottest team in the NFL, winners of eight in a row straight up, covering six of those eight, which includes covers in all four road games played during that span. As a matter of fact, this team is 5-0 on the road this season overall covering all five games played as a guest. Their offense is rolling, while their defense is top five in the league, yielding just 18.7 PPG. Doesn't matter what the line is, the Patriot still win and cover.

Houston Texans.

Game 112.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

A regular mistake made by sportsbettors, is judging a current teams matchup by the way a team played their last game. Yes, Josh Allen threw for three touchdowns and ran for three touchdowns in the Bills last outing at home against the Buccaneers. And yes, once again, Buffalo has won and covered three of their last four contests. But let's not forget the Houston Texans defense tops the league, yielding just 16.3 PPG, equally good against the pass as they are against the rush, and has forced 10 turnovers already. I know their quarterback, Davis Mills doesn't have the experience. But he is 2-0 as a starter this season. I'm not looking to take away anything from the Buffalo offensive, which does rank in the top 10 in just about every major category. But the mistake-prone Josh Allen, despite putting great numbers up, leads an offense that has committed 12 turnovers already. They rank 31st defensively against the rush which means even though the Texans running game is less than stellar, they will still be able to control the clock and move the chains on the ground. Davis Mills knows his game plan, run the ball, pass off the run, and don't take any chances, and let his defense do the rest. This is way too many points for a Buffalo team to lay on the road, especially coming off a game like they came off in their last outing. Take the Houston Texans. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 473.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West for nearly a decade. That's right, they have won nine consecutive division titles. But this season they sit just 5-4 overall, while the Denver Broncos, at 8-2 own a significant lead in the division. Overall, the Broncos are also a perfect 5-0 at home this season. But this is a big situation for the Chiefs. And we all know outside of last year’s Super Bowl this team comes up huge in big-game situations. Put a pin in that, we're going to come back around to it. The Denver Broncos are red-hot, winning seven consecutive games in which they covered four of the seven. Five of those seven games were won by four points or less. And to be quite honest with you, their quarterback is putting up less than stellar numbers. They're doing it with a very strong defense. They're not passing the ball with great efficiency, and they're turning the ball over, a lot. They had a few extra days to rest and prepare for this matchup. Coming off a full bye week, the Chief suffered their first defeat in a while, a heartbreaking road loss at the hands of their AFC rival, the Buffalo Bills. As a matter of fact, prior to that loss, they had been on a 5-1 SU/ATS hot streak. I feel getting the extra time off to rest, heal, and prepare, coming off the bad loss against their hated rival, and knowing they need this game in the division, gives the visitor a big edge. But the edges don't stop there, my friends. If you recall, the last time these two teams met was back in the first week of January last season. Kansas City had pulled all their starters from the road game, and watched as Denver took advantage of it, and thrashed them 38-0. I'm sure that did not sit well with the team. KC, we'll be without starting running back, Isaiah Pacheco. But not to worry, they have a couple of able backups. They are also led by the most successful quarterback in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes, who heads up the fifth-ranked passing attack in the league. They make very few mistakes, and are equally balanced. Their defense, believe it or not, is just as good, yielding to 17.7 PPG. Let me ask you a question, folks. If you have a choice between Patrick Mahomes or Bo Nix in a big game, must-win situation, who would you choose? Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

MNF WINNER.

Game 275.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

I think we can all agree, Philadelphia has had their way with Green Bay, winning and covering the last three meetings, with the most recent back on January 12 of last season, 22-10. We all know what happened to the Eagles following that game (lol). Philadelphia enters this matchup coming off a bye week, giving several of their key contributors some time to rest, and heal, and overall, the team a few extra days to prepare for this big matchup. Both Philadelphia and Green Bay are sitting atop their divisions, and in all honestly, this is a big game for each one of them as they may be facing each other down the road in the post-season. Philadelphia come sin to this matchup winning and covering their last two games, possessing a 3-1 straight up record on the road, and covering three of their four games played as a visitor, as well. Meanwhile, Green Bay following a three-game straight up win streak, in which they only covered one of those games, come off an embarrassing loss. As a matter of fact, I believe it is the largest favorite pointspread loser going back quite a while. They entered the match up on November 2 at home with the Carolina Panthers nearly a two-touchdown favorite (closed -13.5), and lost outright, 16-13. Normally, I would look to jump on a team like the Packers following and embarrassing loss, especially at home. But I think this matchup does not suit them.  The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a non-divisional road underdog. Granted, this is a very small pointspread, but they are still coming in here as an underdog. Speaking of pointspreads, Philadelphia is one of the best ATS teams in the NFL, covering 17 of their last 24 overall games. There is some question about the health of running back, Saquon Barkley. But all reports are he's back at full strength. Statistically, Green Bay possesses better numbers on defense. They both score about the same offensively. But I think we can agree mistakes are big in the NFL, and the Eagles rarely cough the ball up, while the Packers has made some big miscues on offense. Defensively, the Eagles are not as stout, but have grabbed five takeaways already, while the home team has only accounted for three takeaways. Having said that, Philadelphia bolstered their defense at the trade deadline adding some muscle in their linebacking core, and a couple of solid cornerbacks as well. The passing attack of the Packers is one of the best in the NFL, but took a big hit last week as they lost tight end Tucker Kraft. He is their leading receiver, folks. They don't have the strongest rushing game to compensate. The Philly offense is starting to explode, and by the way, this is the first time this season they have been made in underdog, and last season they were perfect 4-0 in that situation. Take the Eagles. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

NFC Best Bet.

Game 269.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

They say revenge is a dish best serve cold. Well, my friends, last year's dream season for Detroit ended abruptly at home at Ford Field, losing to Washington, 45-31. The Lions couldn't do anything right in that game, and their dream season was over. I also feel following last week’s lackluster performance in which they lost also at home, to the Vikings 27-24, will prompt them to bounce back here in a big way. As a matter of fact, they dropped two of their last three games, cand I'm sure head coach, Dan Campbell read them the riot act after the most recent. Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders are sliding badly, losing and failing to cover their last four outings, which does include both games played at home during that span. Their offense has stalled, and their defense is overworked, tired, and getting lit up. This is a lot of points, I admit. But getting Detroit off of an ugly loss in which they couldn't run the ball, I expect them to come out here with something to prove, and prove it especially against a Washington stop-unit, that can't stop anyone. Take the Lions. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

NFC West Game of the Week.

Game 268.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

The Seahawks are currently tied with the Rams at 6-2 in the NFC West. Just behind them is the 49ers at 6-3, and bringing up the rear is the Cardinals at 3-5. Division wins are big right now, my friends. The Cardinals have had trouble with just about everybody this season, but specifically within the NFC West where they are winless at 0-2. Having said that, they do come off a little bit shorter of a week, and I feel are in a letdown situation following the November 3 road victory over the Cowboys, 27-17. It was their third straight cover but their first straight up victory since mid-September. It is true, the Seahawks have had their way with them, taking eight consecutive meetings and covering seven of the eight. This includes a September 25 matchup on the road, 23-20, as a small 1.5-point favorite. Obviously, the line is a little bit bigger here because they're playing in one of the most difficult places for a visitor to play, Lumen Field. This is interesting because Seattle, as you know has won six of their last seven games both SU/ATS. During their last three outings, all wins and covers, their defense has yielded an average as of 15.0 PPG. Overall, they rank fifth in the NFL in points allowed, second in rushing yards allowed, and fourth in takeaways. Arizona is having problems putting points on the board to begin with, and I think it's going to go from bad to worse for them here. On the offensive side of the ball, look for Seattle and their surging offense, which ranked fifth in scoring to absolutely pick apart their opponents 23rd-ranked pass defense. Sam Donald is one of the best gunslingers in the NFL. He heads up the fourth-ranked passing attack, and like I said, this will be probably his best performance statistically so far this season. Take the Seahawks. Thank you.

Carolina Panthers.

Sharp Money Play.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Very quietly, the Carolina Panthers are stacking up victories. They have won four of their last five, both SU and ATS. I doubt very much they're going be in a let-down situation here following the last week's road victory over Green Bay. That was a big win for this team following their preceding game in which they got smoked at home by Buffalo, 49. There are 3-1 at home this season both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just horrible, losing and failing to cover four straight, and overall, on the season are 1-8 SU, only covering two of their nine outings. They are winless on the road, only covering one of their four away games. The Panthers defense is starting to step up, big time, and will throw everything at whichever quarterback is under center for the Saints. All four of New Orleans road games this season have been losses by 12 or more points my friends. This one shouldn't be any different. Take the Carolina Panthers. Thank you.

Chicago Bears.

High Roller release.

Game 266.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

My friends, maybe the Bears win ugly, but they are still winning. No, they don't do it pretty at all, they don't do it graceful at all, but they are finding new and improved ways to come out victorious. Over the last month and a half, they have won and covered five of their six outings. They have also won and covered both games played on their own field during that span. Meanwhile, the Giants which are just 2-7 overall, and are winless at 0-5 as a visitor this season, riding an overall three-game SU slide, in which they failed to cover the last two outings. They are just 2-3 ATS as a guest in 2025. I will admit, their last three opponents were all solid squads in the Broncos, Eagles, and 49ers. But this team just can't do anything right, and their defense is getting lit up like a Christmas tree. Don't ask me how, but the Chicago offense ranks sixth in the league in scoring, accounting for over 26.9 points per game, and have only turned the ball over six times. They rank in the top-10 both in passing and in rushing. That would be enough for me my friends. I am aware their defense is one of the most porous in the NFL, but they've also forced 13 turnovers, which tops the league. I feel you're going to see the Chicago team run the ball, run the ball, run the ball and tire out the New York already overworked 31st ranked run defense. They will control the clock and the tempo, move the chains, and win and cover this game. Take the Bears. Thank you.

New England Patriots.

No Limit play.

Game 263.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Tampa Bay has the luxury of playing at home and did have a week off to rest and prepare for this matchup. The Buccaneers are playing some solid football, sitting atop the NFC South at 6-2 overall. Meanwhile, one of the hottest teams in the NFL happens to be the New England Patriots which have rattled off six consecutive straight up victories, and are only a handful of points away from covering all six going 5-1 against the spread. They are the top team in the AFC East at 7-2 overall, and are a perfect 4-0 both SU/ATS on the road this season, and I believe if they were in a letdown situation would've happened a month ago following their win on the road at the Bills. Granted some of their recent opponents aren't the cream of the crop in the NFL, but they still lit up the scoreboard on offense, while holding opponents on defense. Speaking of which, their defense ranks sixth in the league, yielding just 18.8 PPG. While neither team is known for running the ball, I can tell you this, the Patriot defense will completely shut down any attempts the Buccaneers offense makes on the ground. They top the league with the number one ranked run defense. What you're going to see in this matchup, as an aerial assault from both offensive units. But being that the New England defense is a bit stouter, and really playing with a great rhythm, I feel giving this team points as a mistake. Take the Patriots. Thank you.

Baltimore Ravens.

Touchdown play.

Game 261.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Do you believe in coincidences? Well, I'll tell you this, it's very coincidental the Ravens started winning when they started getting healthy. They have won and covered their last two outings, one at home against Chicago, 30-16, and then on the road against Miami, 28-6. They have had a few extra days to rest, heal, and prepare for this matchup. Yes, JJ McCarthy guided the Minnesota Vikings to a road victory over the powerful, Detroit Lions a week ago, 27-24. I think Detroit was due for a letdown, my friends, and Minnesota caught them at the right time. Now I think the Vikings are due for a letdown. This is a team that's just 1-2, both SU/ATS at home this season, and while McCarthy has a bright future, I think he's in trouble in this matchup. The last few weeks, the Ravens defense has really stepped up, yielding just 22 total points. Granted the Bears and the Dolphins don't possess explosive offensive squads, but they still contained both. Baltimore also possesses one are the most frustrating, and most consistent rushing attacks in pro football. This is a place where Minnesota certainly has problems. On the flipside, JJ McCarthy might've come up with a big game last week, but he does not have the luxury of a solid ground attack to keep the Baltimore Ravens defense honest. Under a touchdown here is a gift. Take the Ravens. Thank you.

Denver Broncos.

Game 110.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

Prior to the season starting, if you would've told me I'll be laying double-digits with the Denver Broncos, I would've told you, you are crazy. However, halfway through the regular season, with the Broncos hosting the Raiders, it's not so crazy anymore. Denver enters tonight's matchup one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning six consecutive outings, and going 4-2 ATS during that span. There are a perfect 4-0 straight up at home this season, and after tonight, will stay that way. Granted, laying double-digits (or near double-digits), in the NFL is something I'm never at ease in doing. But I know the Las Vegas team, and my friends, this is a horrible football team. They are just 2-6 straight up this season, and have only covered two games as well. They did come out victorious in their first road game of the regular season, back in the first week of September, but have lost and failed to cover the three away game since, dropping their last three games played as a visitor by 11, 34, and 31 points. If you recall, a season ago the Broncos took both meetings against the Raiders, straight up and against the spread, winning the first at home by 16 points, and the second on the road by 10 points. Yes, they do have a home meeting against the Kansas City Chiefs in their next outing, but that is 10 days away, and I doubt very much they are going to be in a “look-ahead” situation here. Las Vegas ranks 29th in scoring, averaging a dismal 16.5 PPG, have coughed the ball up 13 times, and statistically rank at or near the bottom in every major offensive category. Defensively, their numbers aren't too much better either, folks. I look for the very powerful running game of the Broncos to keep their opponents defense honest, and allow their passing game to open up. On the other side of the line scrimmage, look for Denver and their fourth-ranked defense, to absolutely shut down the lackluster offense of Las Vegas. This is a lot of points. But a win is a win as a win! Take the Broncos. Thank you.

Play: Patriots

Very quietly, the New England Patriots have taken control of the AFC East, and overall, possess one of the conference's best records. At 6-2, the Patriots are becoming a force to be reckoned with. They are one of the hottest teams in the NFL as well, winning and covering five straight games, which does include both games played at home during that span. Meanwhile, a lot was expected of the Atlanta Falcons this season, and they are falling way short of expectations. They're just 3-4 overall, and come off back-to-back losses and no covers. Overall, their defense isn't too bad. But their offense is so horrible, they are getting off the field so quick, that their defense is overworked and fatigued. They account for a dismal, 17.1 points per game. You know what’s funny? Statistically speaking, they can pass the ball, and they can run the ball. But they just can't find a way to get it in the end zone. Meanwhile, Drake Maye very quietly leads the ninth-rank passing attack in the NFL. He does have a solid rushing attack, and let's not forget about the leagues fourth-ranked defense. They are allowing a mere 18.3 PPG. Ride a hot team, and fade a cold one. Take the Patriots. Thank you.

Baltimore Ravens.

Game 309

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

My belief is no one player in the NFL should ever make or break a team's success. The Baltimore Ravens were supposed to compete for the AFC Championship this season. And, I will admit, prior to Lamar Jackson going down during the September 28 loss and no cover on the road at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, they did struggle in that game, and the previous game, a loss and no cover at home against the Detroit Lions. The following two games, both played at home, saw their offense combine for a total of 13 points scored. Yes, also at home this past Sunday night, they took down the Chicago Bears with authority. But I think we could all agree, taking down the Bears isn’t the toughest achievement in the NFL. Jackson is most likely returning this week, and things will change. The Miami Dolphins are a trainwreck. This is a team that was supposed to compete for the AFC East, and nearly halfway through the regular season, they are just 2-6 straight up. They too, come off their first victory in a while, taking down the Atlanta Falcons on the road, 34-10. But once again the Falcons are one of the most erratic teams in football. Prior to that they lost three straight, going 1-2 against the spread. Baltimore needs to get back on track, and what better defense to face than the Miami’s so-called stop-unit. The Dolphins rank near the bottom of the barrel in just every defensive category. They are getting plowed for over 26.9-points per game, and rank 31st, snagging just one takeaway. Against the rush, is where they're really getting beaten. They rank 28th in NFL in that category. Well, even if Jackson wasn't playing, (once again, check status) the Ravens still possess the eighth-ranked rushing attack in the league behind Derrick Henry. Their defense has gotten steamrolled, but that is only because their offense has been so weak, their defense is overworked. Tua Tagovailoa leads a lackluster unit, accounting for 21.8-points per game, and committing a whopping 12 turnovers. In the air they are horrible, and on the ground almost as bad, averaging under 100 yards per game to the rush. They don't have a solid ground attack to keep defenses honest, and eat up the clock. Baltimore has something to prove here, and with the expected return (once again check status) of Jackson, I feel they will prove it. I wish this line was a little bit lower, but a win is a win is a win. Take the Ravens. Thank you.

Washington Commanders.

Game 283.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

I'm not going to try to make you believe the Commanders are on the same level as the Chiefs. Trust me, they are not. However, sports betting isn't about who is better, it's about who covers. I feel the line tonight is a little high. Yes, this is the third straight game played at home for Kansas City, who come off back-to-back wins and covers over Detroit and Las Vegas. And yes, it seems like over the last month or so they've turned the corner following a sluggish start to the regular season. But this really is a lot of points, my friends. This is a team that is just 15-18 ATS at home with Patrick Mahomes under center since 2022. Also, over the last five years, there are 14-24-1ATS as a favorite of 7.5 points or higher. But the ATS trends just don't stop there. They are just 1-6 ATS on Monday Night games since 2021. If you compare that to the Commanders Monday Night Football hot run of 4-1 ATS the last five appearances, it may make you raise an eyebrow. One more ATS trend folks, Kansas City is 1-6 ATS their last seven games played as a double-digit favorite. Yes, Marcus Mariota will be at the helm for Washington. And yes, this team has lost and failed to cover two in a row, and three of the last four, which includes two of three road games played during that span. But I just don't see KC covering this huge point spread. There is one more item that I feel really makes my argument stronger; up next for the Chiefs is a November 2nd road game against the Bills. I'm not saying they are going to be in a “look ahead” situation. I am saying they may leave a little gas in the tank on reserve for their next game. I just don't see them covering this big point spread. Take Washington. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

NFC SOUTH GOM.

Game 275.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

With all respect to New Orleans Saints fans, this is one of the worst teams in football. Not much was expected of this team this season, and yet they are still under achieving. They rank 29th in scoring in 27th on defense. Sitting at 1-6 already, and only covering two of their seven outings, this team cannot wait for the end of the regular season LOL. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are perched atop the competitive NFC South at 5-2. This is a team that's won three of their four road games this season, and look to get back on track following an embarrassing loss just six days ago on the road at the Lions. Prior to that they took down two solid opponents in the Seahawks and the 49ers.This is a team that has a lot of talent, they can pass the ball, make very few mistakes, and possess a solid defense. Coming off that loss last week, they know they need to get back on track with a big victory here, and what better team to face than the lowly Saints. Take the Buccaneers. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

NFC EAST GOM.

Game 272.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Money is starting to come in on the New York Giants, and I understand why. They have split out their last four games, covering three of those four, and have a new attitude it seems. And yes, they did take down this very same Philadelphia Eagles opponent just 17 days ago at home, 34-17. But I'm here to tell you that revenge is a dish best served cold. The defending Super Bowl Champions are 5-2 this season, and began the campaign winning for their first four outings. They lost back-to-back games against the Denver Broncos and as I mentioned a moment ago, the New York Giants before last week’s road win and cover over the Vikings. This is a division game in which the Eagles definitely need. Currently the only team in the NFC East that possesses a winning record against the division opponents is the 2nd place, Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles know they must win this game this week, and even more furthermore, want this victory to exact revenge from the embarrassing loss a few weeks back. I think the Giants are a good story this season, generating some excitement in the New York area. But this is a team that posts just 21.9 PG, while allowing 25.3 PPG. The offense has committed nine turnovers, while their defense does not strike fear in any opponent. On the other hand, the Eagles numbers are slightly better. They're rushing game, there once explosive rushing game has sputtered. But this is a team with a lot of talent, a lot of pride, and a smart coaching staff. They will get their revenge, and get a well needed division victory. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Chicago Bears.

VIM.

Game 265.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

I always say one player should never make or break a teams success. But I think we can all agree without Lamar Jackson the Baltimore Ravens are a very different team. Yes, they have lost and failed to cover their last four outings, and yes, they have coughed the ball up nine times over those last four contests. Outside of running back, Derrick Henry the offense is just sputtering. They are currently 28th in passing, and overall, have committed 10 turnovers. Because of their lack of offense, their defense is overworked, fatigued, and being outplayed, ranking 32nd in points allowed, getting steamrolled for over 32.3 PPG, and have snagged just one take away. Well, my friends, in comes the surging, Chicago Bears, who have won and covered the last four outings, which does include wins and covers in their two games played on the road during that span. They have a solid ground attack which will keep their opponents already tired stop unit on the field, allowing their quarterback to open up the passing game. One more thing you need to realize my friends, very quietly, the Bears now own the number one team in the NFL on the defensive side ball with 11 takeaways. The combination of Baltimore coughing the ball up and Chicago's very frustrating defense will spell DOOM for the home team here. Take Chicago. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

High Roller.

Game 263

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The NFC West is going to be a dogfight. Currently, three teams are tied atop of the division at 5-2, the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams. Believe it or not, all three of those teams are also possessing winning road records. Having said that, San Francisco comes into this matchup a small underdog against the 2-4 Houston Texans. This line perplexes me. Going back a dozen years, the 49ers have won and covered the last three meetings in this rivalry. The most recent being three years ago. But they enter today's contest having one extra day off to rest and prepare for this matchup. While the Texans possess the NFL's best scoring defense, yielding just 14.7 PPG, they really haven't faced too many solid offenses. Their biggest win was a 44-10 shellacking on the road over the Ravens, without a ton of their starters. That's a whole other story we all know Baltimore is struggling badly. Last week their weaknesses rose to the surface on the road in the 27-19 defeat at the hands of Seattle. Meanwhile, San Francisco has victories over such notables also over Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams, and most recently, the ever-improving Atlanta Falcons. I feel this is the game the 49ers will win with authority. We all know they've been hit by the injury bug. However, they have a smarter coach, and their opponent has also been hit recently with some significant injuries. I feel the 49ers win this game. So, I will take San Francisco plus the points. Thank you.

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New England Patriots.

BEST BET.

Game 274.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Cleveland Browns have dropped five of their seven outings this season, including all three games played on the road in which they have failed to cover all three of those games as well. Yes, they got a victory a week ago at home against the Miami Dolphins. But I think we can all agree, the Dolphins, who sit at just 1-6 this season, are not a very good team. I feel the Browns come back down to Earth this week as they go into Foxborough to face the surging Patriots, who are riding a four-game win and cover streak. Just going by the numbers, New England accounts for 9.8 points per game more on offense, while yielding 2.7 points per game less on defense. Offensively, the Browns pose very little threat. They rank at or near the bottom in every major offensive category. Yes, they do possess a decent defense. But I just don't see them slowing down a New England opponent playing at home, riding a hot streak, and accounting for 32.7 PPG during that span. Take the Patriots. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

Game 478.

7:00 PM PST/10:00 PM EST.

It's funny how our point of view can change week by week in the NFL. Yes, I did have the Texans not long ago and won with them. And yes, they have won and covered their last two outings after starting the campaign off at 0-3, both straight up and against the spread. There is one more yes, my friends… yes, they have gotten healthier over recent weeks as well. But I think we can all agree that facing one of the worst teams in the league in the Tennessee Titans, and thumping a Baltimore Ravens opponent 15 days ago on the road without many of their starters, does not instill a lot of confidence. nor puts too much stock in the Houston Texans. They are a good team and they are certainly on the rise. But playing on the road where they are just 1-2 both SU and ATS this season, and going into one of the loudest, nastiest, craziest stadiums in all of sports is not going to fare well for this team. The Seahawks have not taken the field since October 12, but enter this matchup well rested too. This is a team that is 4-2 both SU and ATS this season. They are playing some very good football. They opened the campaign off losing at home in a tough defeat at the hands of the 49ers, 17-13. But have since rattled off four wins and covers over five outings. These two teams haven't met in about four years. So, don't look at any trends although Seattle has taken the last three straight up covering two of the three. But I don't think that has any bearing on this matchup. What does have a bearing is the Texans traveling over a couple of time zones and playing late at night here. Granted, Mike McDonald has done better on the road than he does at home. But I do feel this is the game he turns the corner. Sam Darnold is playing some the best football of his career with 11 Ds, just three INT’s, a 70.8% completion rate, and over 1,541 yards passing. They have a solid rushing attack. And one of the most explosive receiving corps in the NFL. Cooper Kupp finally got his first touchdown, and you will see him and Donald hook up quite often here tonight. This is a team that possesses the fifth best passing attack in the league. Granted, the defense for the Houston Texans has been giving them their victories. They rank number one in points allowed, but isn’t creating turnovers (5). Their offense is really mediocre at best. They rank in the bottom third in most offensive categories. And they do face a very stingy defense themselves here tonight. Seattle is allowing only19.5 points per game, and has grabbed seven takeaways already. I doubt very much Houston, which has does not own a solid running game to keep defenses honest, will be able to move the chains on the ground against the third best run defense in the NFL. Too many angles just point towards the home team here. Take Seattle. Thank you.

Atlanta Falcons.

Game 473.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

Believe it or not, I feel this is one of the most exciting matchups on the board this Sunday in the NFL. Atlanta comes into this matchup winning and covering two in a row and three of their last four games. Meanwhile, somehow despite losing two of their last two both straight up and against the San Francisco still has a record of 4-2. Yes, they've lost two of their last three straight up, and three of their last four against the spread, and going back, I can't remember the last home game they actually covered. They have so many injuries it is ridiculous. The Falcons are riding high with two high-profile victories, both at home over the Commanders and the Bills. I don’t see a “letdown” situation here for them. If that was the case, they would have folded last week. But this team is starting to click. One more item my friends, last week the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tallied six sacks against the San Francisco 49ers. Trust me when I tell you the Falcons defense will watch those game films and take a page out of that scheme. I think the wrong team is favored here. Take Atlanta. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

Game 471.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

There was a lot expected of the Green Bay Packers this season. With six games played in the regular season, they are living up to expectations. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals are riding a four-game straight up losing streak and I've only covered two of their last five contests. It's true, the Packers have failed to cover their last three outings. But there's a few things that really make me feel strongly that they are going to crush the Arizona Cardinals tonight. First of all, Arizona has a laundry list of injuries. Even if some of their key names do start, they're not going to be 100%. In all sincerity, the Cardinals offense leaves a lot to be desired. They have problems rushing the ball, and their passing game is almost nonexistent. Their defense is mediocre, and they certainly don't strike fear in any opponent’s offenses. Speaking of which, in come the Packers, who rank in the top 10 in just about every major offensive category. But even more importantly, they rarely turn the ball over. That would be enough, but their defense has played extremely well this season, ranking number one against the rush, number 11 against the pass, number five in total yards allowed, and number 10 in points allowed. Take Green Bay. Thank you.

New England Patriots.

Game 457.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Winners of a three in a row, the New England Patriots have now taken control of the AFC East. Things are starting to come together for the team. You really can't say too many good things about their opponent. Tennessee is just 1-5, and just can't seem to cross the goal line. They rank 31st in the league in scoring, averaging a dismal 13.8 PPG. They've committed 10 turnovers. To be quite honest, they either rank 31st or 32nd in just about every major offensive category. Quarterback, Drake Maye leads one of the top passing offenses in the NFL and is starting to really come into his own. Defensively, this team has tightened up quite a bit this season and are playing great football. They are one of the best in the league against the rush, and are only allowing 20.0 PPG. The Patriots keep winning. Take New England. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Game 275.

4:15 PM PST/7:15 PST.

I can see why some of the people in the sportsbetting world are coming in on the home team here. I mean after all Atlanta took down Washington a few weeks ago on this very same field. And they have had an extra week to rest and prepare for this matchup. The Falcons also possess a very strong rushing attack. Oh, and one more thing, they top the NFL on defense in passing yards allowed. But I'm here to tell you all of those reasons put together could not compel me to side with the home team here. The Buffalo Bills were a perfect 4-0 on the campaign before last week’s heartbreaking home loss at the hands of their division rival, the New England Patriots. Yes, Buffalo tends to get overvalued as they have failed to cover their last three games. But I'm here to tell you this line is very short here. Getting the Bills off their first defeat of the season, and embarrassing home defeat at that, will spell doom for the Falcons. As I mentioned earlier Atlanta owns a strong rushing attack. And, the Bills are weak against the rush. But their defense has really stepped up at times this season. And offensively, I doubt very much Atlanta is going to slow down, let alone contain the well-balanced offense of Buffalo. This is a unit that is accounting for over 30.6 points per game, that's 11.6 more points per game than their opponent averages. I doubt very much the Falcons can keep pace on the scoreboard. Buffalo has both a very damaging passing game and a pounding rushing attack that will take its toll and wear down their opponent’s defense allowing them to open up that passing game. I just see the Bills getting back on track following their first loss of the campaign. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

Game 260.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Jacksonville is playing some great football. They enter this contest with consecutive wins and covers over the Texans, 49ers, and Chiefs. Seattle has had an extra day to prepare for this game following an ugly home loss at the hands of Tampa Bay. The Seahawks offense despite the ability to score points, has made eight turnovers already and must go up against the number one defense in football with 10 takeaways. By the way, the Jaguars are 7-1-1 against the spread the last nine home games. Take Jacksonville. Thank you.

Jacksonville Jaguars.

Game 486

5:15 PM PST 8:15 PM EST.

At first glance, you might think you're reading a typo. But you are not. A month into the regular season and the Kansas City is sitting at just 2-2, while Jacksonville is 3-1. Yes, the Chiefs opened their season with a couple of ugly losses on the road at the Chargers, and then at home against the Eagles. They did turn things around a bit taking down the Giants on the road, and then last week the Ravens at home. But I think we could all agree, the New York Giants are not a Super Bowl contender, and the Baltimore Ravens, are hit with more significant injuries than just about any other team in the league. I'm not looking to take away anything from this team. They are a very good team, and as long as you have Andy Reid on the sidelines, and Patrick Mahomes on the field, you will compete. Looking at the home team tonight, they opened up their season with the home victory over the Carolina Panthers, then lost a tough one on the road at the Cincinnati Bengals. The last two outings, they took down two solid opponents with a home victory against the Houston Texas, and then a road victory against the San Francisco 49ers. Head-to-head, it is true, Kansas City has had their way with Jacksonville, winning eight consecutive meetings going back to 2010. But these are two different teams this season, for sure. But there are a few key factors that prompt me to side with Jacksonville here. The Chiefs defense has played well, yielding just 19.0 points per game. They have three takeaways already. However, they are one of the most porous teams in the NFL against the rush. In comes Travis Etienne Jr., and the fourth-ranked running attack in football. On the flipside, I think we can all agree the Chiefs “O” is less than spectacular this season. I mean they are in the middle of the pack, averaging over 24.3 points per games. But they can't rush the ball with any real efficiency, and their passing game is mediocre best. In my opinion, the reason why Jacksonville is winning is because of their defense. Yes, they rank 23rd against the pass, but they're one of the best in the NFL against the run, only allowing 82.8 yards per game on the ground, ranking them second. They're allowing just 18.0 points per game, and are the best team in football, snagging nine takeaways already. Their defense has been amazing. Playing at home gives them a big edge here as well, as they are 2-0 straight up and against the spread at EverBank Stadium this season. With a strong rushing attack, and the way their offensive scheme is going, a.k.a., Trevor Lawrence not airing the ball out as often as he was in recent seasons, tells me Jacksonville will be very competitive in this matchup. Throw into the mix the line of +3.5, and the Jaguars are our play. Thank you.

Bills

LB PLAY.

Game 484.

5:20 PM PST/78:20 PM EST.

With a month of the NFL regular season in the rear view, the Buffalo Bills are the only undefeated team remaining in the AFC. While New England doesn't pose too much of a thread on paper, they are certainly looking better with a solid defense, along with Drake Maye at the helm this team is looking better. And yes, they've been a thorn in the Bill's side over the years, covering the last four meetings in this rivalry. By the way, they've also won two of those four outright. But I'm taking a different approach to this matchup. After this week, Buffalo goes on the road to Atlanta, then has an off week before they take it to the road to Carolina. Their following weeks are against Kansas City at home, Miami on the road, Tampa Bay at home, Houston on the road, and Pittsburgh on the road. I doubt very much this is a letdown situation for the Bills or they even take their foot off the gas. They have to stay sharp here, and not go into the next few easy games taking their foot off the gas. They are outscoring their opponents by 10.8 points per game, possessing one of the best offenses in the NFL, and have a defense that is stepping up when needed. As good as Drake Maye is leading the seventh ranked passing unit in football, he has to lineup across from the NFL’s top passing defense. There is no way the Bills take their foot off the gas here, and by the way, they can also exact a little revenge from last January's road loss. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Colts.

NL PLAY.

Game 468.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

With all respect to my hometown Raiders, they are a really bad football team. Listen folks, you could have a new coach, you could have a new quarterback, you could bring in a new running back, but if the system is flawed, don’t expect any improvements. The Colts are a very good team. They won and covered the first three games of the season prior to last week's heartbreaking tough late loss at the hands of the Rams. I think they bounce back here with something to prove. Raiders only account for a dismal 19.3 points per game, and have committed eight turnovers already on offense. Their defense is horrible, it's overworked… fatigued…. and beatable…very beatable. How are they going to deal with the well-balanced 1-2 punch of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor? It is just not possible. They cannot keep pace on the scoreboard with Jones, Taylor, and the 4th ranked scoring offense in the NFL, accounting for over 30-8 PPG. This line should be closer to double-digits. Lay it, take the Colts, and take your bookmakers money folks. Thank you.

New York Jets.

MNF WINNER.

Game 277.

4:15 PM PST/7:15 PM EST.

It may not reflect in their record, but the Jets have started to put a decent product on the field. Speaking of Fields, as of this column, it looks like Justin Fields (check status) is going to play. One thing we know about the Dolphins defense, is they have problems against dual-threat quarterbacks. Both Daniel Jones and Josh Allen gave Miami's defense some problems. Monday Night hasn't been too kind to them either, as they are just 2-7, both SU and ATS in the last nine games played hosting Monday Night Football. The Miami defense spends more time on the field than just any other defense in the league, resulting the unit ranking dead last in points allowed (32.3 PPG). I don't think anything's going change in this match up just because they're facing New York at home. Take New York. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

LATE BAILOUT.

Game 275.

5:20 PM PST/820 PM EST.

Green Bay has dominated Dallas, winning and covering five consecutive meetings in this NFC rivalry. They also come off their first defeat of the season, a heartbreaking road loss at the hands of Cleveland, 13-10. They will come in here angry, and motivated. Did I forget to mention they are also 5-0 at AT&T Stadium? Hmm. The Cowboys have talent. It’s just that much of their talent are sidelined with injuries, and they don't have the depth to replenish those missing players. Speaking of missing players, Micah Parsons makes his return to Dallas. To say he is missed on the defensive side of the ball, would be an understatement. This team now ranks 32nd against the pass, and is getting plowed for over 30.7-points per game, and has only one takeaway. On the flipside, they do have some weapons on offense, and they can score points. But they've also stepped on their own toes quite a few times, committing six turnovers. Green Bay doesn't make too many mistakes, and owns a defense giving up just 14.7 PPG. Jordan Love shines, while Micah Parsons makes Dallas really regret his departure. Take the Packers. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

HI ROLLER PLAY.

Game 263.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Following their season-opening loss on the road at the hands of the Packers, the Lions have now rattled off two consecutive wins and covers, showing that they are a very good team. Normally, I would look to fade a team following a high-profile road victory like Detroit had against Baltimore last week. But this team is just too good. Ironically, Cleveland finally got their first win of the season, and it was against the team that beat Detroit in Week 1, taking down Green Bay, 13-10. The problem here is, the Browns offense is averaging just 15.3 PPG. I just don't see them keeping pace on the scoreboard with an explosive “O” like the Lions possess, which has accounted for 90-points just in the last two weeks. I know the Browns “D” is impressive. Trust me when I tell you, come the second half they will be overworked and tired. On the flipside, Detroit racked up seven sacks against Baltimore’s elusive Lamar Jackson last week, and this week lineup across from the 40-year-old, Joe Flacco. One last item, Cleveland has failed to cover their last six-games played as a visitor. Take Detroit. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Touchdown play.

Game 256.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Laying double-digits is always a scary thing to do in the NFL. However, the Bills are off to a great start at 3-0 SU, and 2-1 ATS. This is a team that is no stranger to laying big numbers, and when your opponent hasn't won a game since early December (0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS) laying better than two touchdowns isn't so scary anymore. Granted, Buffalo is just 1-10 ATS as a double-digit favorite their last 11 in that situation. But with New England, Atlanta, and Carolina, which are a combined 3-6, up next for Buffalo, I doubt this team takes their foot off the gas. Take the Bills. Thank you.

Washington Commanders.

OM Play.

Game 259.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Washington opened up this week as a slight favorite. With the news of injuries to both QB, Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin sitting this one out, Atlanta is now a favorite of 2.5-points. Following a road beat down at the hands of the Panthers last week, do you think the Falcons can return home and show some pride? It is true, their defense owns some respectable numbers. But their offense is absolutely atrocious. What’s weird is, they rank 19th in passing, sixth in rushing, but 31st in scoring. They just can't seem to punch the ball in the end zone. Marcus Mariota is proof that a solid backup is significant in this league. The seasoned QB has the luxury of possessing the NFL’s second-best ground attack, that will keep Atlanta's defense honest, and on the field. Take the Commanders. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

GOM.

Game 265.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The big news this week for the 0-3 New York Giants, they move on from Russell Wilson to Jaxson Dart. Without putting pressure on the rookie quarterback, the offense has nowhere to go but up. They rank ninth in passing, 22nd in rushing, 12th in total yards, 27th and points scored, and have already turned the ball over three times. The Giants have no running game to keep defenses honest, or even control the clock, resulting in an overworked, and beaten defense. The New York stop-unit (if you can call that), ranks among the worst in the league just about every major category. Now they have to go up against Justin Herbert and one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Los Angeles did lose RB, Najee Harris. But backup, Omarion Hampton has what it takes to fill in quite nicely. That would be enough. But the Chargers defense is one of the best in football in every aspect. They are equally strong against the pass, and the rush, and only allow 16.7 PPG. Granted, Jim Harbaugh's team is dealing with some injuries themselves. But they have enough depth and talent to win big here. I am not worried about a West Coast team flying east and playing an early game either. I feel they are throwing the young, Dart to the wolves here. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Indianapolis Colts.

GOM.

Game 451.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Football fans, the Indianapolis Colts are for real. They are only one of four undefeated teams in the AFC, and have already separated themselves from the rest of their division. Sitting at 2-0, the Colts are the only team in the South that possess a winning record. The Jaguars are 1-1, while the Texans and Titans are both winless at 0-2. This is a perfect opportunity for them to further distance themselves from the rest of the division. They enter this matchup with decisive victories over the Dolphins, and the Broncos. They have not just won, but covered both games already thus far this season as well. They will be entering this division matchup with confidence, knowing they have taken the last four meetings with the Titans, both straight up, and against the spread. The last two seasons they swept both series, my friends. Speaking of the Titans, going back to last season they've now lost eight consecutive games, only covering one of those eight contests. They possess an offense that is non-existent, accounting for an average of a mere 15.5 points per game thus far. Their defense has been getting blown out. But this is nothing new for Tennessee. Going back to last season, they have possessed one of the worst defenses in the league. Many out there are may question a dome team (retractable roof) going outside for the first time. But you don't have to be. Indianapolis will continue to pound the ball on the ground, and then pass off the run. This does not bode well for a Tennessee defense that ranks 30th in yards per rush allowed on the ground. On the flipside, the Titans offense has sputtered badly, as I mentioned earlier. Cam Ward has not been sufficient at all, barely completing 50% of his passes. They really have no passing game, and can hardly move the ball on the ground, to make matters worse. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense is keeping opponents to under 100 yards per game rushing, and just under 170 yards per game in the air. They've also snagged three takeaways already, while not turning the ball over at all. That is huge in a matchup like this. Especially because their opponent has already turned the ball over three times. Look for Jonathan Taylor to absolutely run amok on the ground, and allow Daniel Jones to open up the passing game. This game gets ugly. Take the Indianapolis Colts. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

Game 279.

7:00 PM PST/10:00 PM EST.

The Los Angeles Chargers won and covered both meetings with the Las Vegas Raiders a season ago, by 12 and 14-points. They opened up this season on September 5 in San Paulo Brazil, taking down the Kansas City Chiefs, 27-21. Obviously, they have a little extra time to rest, heal, and prepare for this Vegas showdown. The Raiders opened up their campaign on the road with a victory over the Patriots, 20-13.  This isn't a far ride for the Chargers, who have gone 26-16 against the spread away from home with Justin Herbert at the helm. It's true, Las Vegas has some offensive weapons. But still, this is an offense that sputtered quite a bit of season ago. I doubt very much they can keep pace on the scoreboard with the arsenal Los Angeles possesses. In last year’s regular season, the Chargers were 6-1, both straight up and against the spread as a road favorite. They travel well, my friends. Justin Herbert is a gunslinger, and the defense seems to be looking good. Vegas is in over their heads in this one. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

ODDSMAKERS MISTAKE

Game 277.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

Yes, for a while Houston had their way with Tampa Bay. But that was then, this is now. The Texans started off this season the way they ended last season, with a lackluster offense. They lost in their season opener on the road to the Rams, 14-9. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers took down the Falcons as a visitor, 23-20. I feel Houston will have problems moving the chains in this matchup. Say what you want about Baker Mayfield, but he is coming into his own, and now has some talent around him. Let's not forget, under Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers are one of the best road underdogs in the NFL, going 11-5 against the spread in that situation. Oh, by the way, if we're looking at ATS trends, the Texans are 7-12 against the number as a favorite with CJ Stroud at quarterback the last three seasons. I think the wrong team is favored here. So, I will take the points with Tampa Bay. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

Touchdown play.

Game 258.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Whenever NFC East teams face one another, it usually makes for an interesting contest. The Dallas Cowboys played very well in their season-opener last week on the road at the Philadelphia Eagles. To be honest with you, they stepped on their own foot a few times which led to that loss. Had they not made the mistakes that they made, they would've probably won that game. But the Cowboys are the Cowboys (lol). Having said that, they still held their own against the well-balanced defending Super Bowl champions. They face a New York Giants opponent that fell short in their first game of the campaign on the road at the Washington Commanders. But when your quarterback, you're aging quarterback I should add, is your leading rusher, how much offense can you possibly produce? Maybe people bet the Giants last week because they won and covered all three of their preseason games. But that was preseason, and this is the regular season. Once again, they have an offense that just can't score points. Outside of a late season victory last year against an Indianapolis Colts team which happened to pull all their starters, this team had not topped 20 points going back until the first week of last October. The Dallas defense leaves a lot to be desired. Especially without Micah Parsons wreaking havoc. But the New York offense just isn't built to exploit their opponents defense here. How about a little history folks? Dallas has taken eight consecutive meetings in this rivalry, going 7-1 against the number during that span. Playing at home in front of their loyal fans following a season opening loss will further motivate the Cowboys to put a hurting on the Giants here. By the way, one more ATS trend for you stat freaks out there, Dallas is 30-12 against the spread facing NFC opponents with Dak Prescott under center. This line should be higher. Take the Cowboys and take your bookmaker's money.

Los Angeles Rams.

MVP Play.

Game 259.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

I think the line of this matchup is a little bit off, my friends. I think it should be closer to a touchdown or more. The Rams are for real. Their defense is looking like it might be one of the most ferocious in the NFL. Last season, they were feared. This season, they look to be even better. This does not bode well for the Tennessee Titans, which gave up six sacks last week on the road at the Denver Broncos. By the way, that loss was their seventh consecutive defeat, going back to last season. Yes, it was their first cover since November. But they did eke out an ATS win by 1.0-point. The offense is stagnant at best, and their defense looks like it's already outmatched, and overworked. I know Cam Ward has a bright future. But it's going to take him time to adjust to the NFL, and get in sync with his offense. In the meantime, he's in for a very long day here. There is no way this lackluster offensive unit can keep pace on the scoreboard with Matthew Stafford and the high-flying passing attack of the Rams. Under a touchdown as a gift. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals.

Game 463.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Cincinnati Bengals have dominated the Cleveland Browns over recent matchups, winning and covering the last three meetings, including the one road game. Despite winning their final five games of the regular season, covering four of those five, the Bengals missed the playoffs last year. This is a team that possesses one of the most talented offenses in all of pro football. Their one downfall a season ago, was definitely their defense. But that just might not matter here. The Browns come off another deplorable season, only tallying three total victories, and losing their final six outings. With a combination of a lack of offense, and a very tired defense, this team didn't do too well last season. This season they are touted to win just 5.5-games, and finish dead last in the AFC North. 40-year-old, Joe Flacco (check status) is supposed to be at the helm here. While they have a couple of new exciting additions to the team, I just don't see the aged veteran moving the chains in this matchup. I doubt very much the Cleveland offense can keep pace on the scoreboard with their opponent here. With Jacksonville up next at home before road trips to Minnesota and Denver, I feel Cincinnati will crush here. Take the Bengals. Thank you.

Washington Commanders.

Game 462.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

A season ago the Washington Commanders were a well-kept secret, rolling to 12 regular season victories and two more wins in the postseason, and covering 11 regular season contests, and two of three in the playoffs. This season they're not gonna’ surprise anyone, precited to win 9.5-games and compete for the division. They have a potent, well-balanced offense, and a defense that stepped up when they needed to a season ago. That's why I cannot understand for the life of me why this line is under a touchdown. The New York Giants are absolutely horrible. Last season they managed to eke out just three straight up victories, and four ATS covers. It seems like every loss was lopsided, folks. Maybe the line is what it is because the Giants won and covered all three of their preseason games. Let's face it, preseason is not regular season. For New York, 36-year-old Russell Wilson will be at the helm this season. He doesn't have the legs he once had, my friends. Granted, he faces a Washington defense that was pretty lax against the run. But they are extremely good against the pass. On the flip side, I just don't see how the Giants will be able to slow down, let alone contain QB, Jayden Daniels, a potent backfield consisting of the likes of Ekeler and Croskey-Merritt, and let's not forget, the addition of Deebo Samuel. This is a chance for Dan Quinn and his team to jump out to a nice lead in the competitive NFC East. I still think under a touchdown is a gift. All the way with the Commanders here.

Los Angeles Chargers.

FNL.

Game 454.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

There is no question the Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the Los Angeles Chargers, taking the last seven meetings, going back to December 2021. But winning and covering are two entirely different things. The last three matchups in this division rivalry have been decided by a total of 10-points. Under Andy Reid, Kansas City certainly has had success, and they usually start off the regular season winning (10-2 L12 season openers under Reid). Los Angeles, under Jim Harbaugh covers. Last year's regular season saw the Chargers cover 12 games. This game is being played in San Paulo, Brazil. This changes things a bit. Now, I am a big fan of Patrick Mahomes. But I think we can all agree the offense isn’t what they once were. Throw into the mix this season he has a new receiving core. Hopkins, Hardman, and Watson are all gone, and Rice will be in sidelined this game, serving a suspension. Let's not forget that the Chiefs also lost a couple of constants on their offensive line. There is a lot of talk the Chargers are a little banged up. They have some questionables on their line (check status), and running back Najee Harris did not play this preseason, although the ball carrier is expected (check status) to start here on Friday. As far as the Los Angeles “O” goes, Justin Herbert suffered his worst outing as far back as I can remember the last time he took the field, as the team lost in a January 11 Wildcard game on the road at Houston. He will come out here with something to prove, and be the gunslinging quarterback we all know. I feel this game is gonna’ be decided in the final few minutes. I do feel it's going to be a tight game. I will take the Los Angeles Chargers. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Thursday Night Winner.

Game 452.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

This isn't just a big game for the Eagles as far as the division goes. Yes, they can jump ahead of a division rival here with a big victory. This is also the first game of the season for the defending Super Bowl Champions to make a statement to the rest of the NFC that they are once again a true force in the conference. This is one of the most complete teams in all the football, my friends. For the Cowboys, as usual, there is excitement coming out of their fan base. But this happens every year. A season ago they finished with just seven wins. They lost and failed to cover both matchups with Philadelphia, being outscored by a combined, 75-13. As a matter of fact, the Eagles have won and covered three of the last four meetings with the Cowboys, which does include both games played at Lincoln Financial Field. I expect Philly to do what they do, run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, and then pass off the run. With the news of Micah Parsons departure from Dallas, the line moved a bit here. Trust me when I tell you, the Cowboys defense is in real trouble tonight. You may remember a season ago Dak Prescott missed both matchups played in this rivalry, and Philadelphia did lose a couple of key starters on the defensive side of the ball in the off-season. But they have the offense, particularly the running game, to grind down their opponent’s defense here tonight, kill the clock, and control the tempo. It's a big number. But I still like the Eagles. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Game 102.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

Let's start with the NFC Title game. Early money is coming in on the Washington Commanders, and with good reason. These two teams know each other all too well, sharing the division, the NFC East. The Commanders are riding a seven-game straight up winning streak, in which they have gone 5-2 against the number, while the Eagles have won 14 of their last 15, covering 10 of their last 14 games. These teams have met twice this season, with each home team winning and covering those contests. Yes, Washington is 7-3 away from home this season. But Philly is an astounding, 10-1 at Lincoln Financial Field (talk about a home field advantage. Lol). Obviously, Philadelphia has more players with postseason experience. Let’s put a pin in that, folks. I think we can all agree quarterback, Jayden Daniels has had a storybook season. But the playoffs are a whole different monster. Yes, they beat the top NFC seed, in the Detroit Lions last week. Guys, I feel the Lions came in underprepared, and overconfident. I do feel Washington comes in here in a letdown situation. In their two playoff games thus far, Philadelphia’s, Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts have combined for over 430 yards rushing. Overall, on the season, this team possesses the second-ranked rushing attack in the NFL. This is where the game is going to get out of hand. The Commanders defense, overall although very good, still ranks 30th in the league against the rush. The Philadelphia coaching staff is smart and will have their squad prepared even further for this weeks matchup. On the flipside, the Eagle’s stop-unit has allowed a mere, 17.8 points per game this season. Sports fans, in today's day and age, that is just amazing. They top the league against the pass, and rank 10th against the run. For all the reasons I just laid out, I like Philadelphia here to win and cover, and go on to the Super Bowl. Thank you.

Eagles.

Game 392.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

Sunday's NFC divisional matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles.

A mistake most sportsbettor’s make is judging a team from their previous performance. Yes, Los Angeles took down one of the regular-season’s best teams in the Minnesota Vikings, with authority just a few days ago, 27-9. But let's face it, the Vikings might be one of the biggest posers this season. Case in point, how they played the previous week against the Detroit Lions when they needed the victory badly. Let's go back to the Rams. They have won six of their last seven, both straight up and against the spread. But (and yes there's always a but), but their three previous games were played in basically covered stadiums, not having to worry about weather. Not the case here as they have to travel cross country to Lincoln Financial Field where the weather is going to be cold, cold, cold. Not only that, but the Eagles are one of the best home teams in the NFL, going 9-1 when playing host this season. Let's go back to the Rams, folks. Yes, they have won and covered their four previous games played as a visitor. But those games were on the road at the lowly Jets, the hurting 49ers, the overrated Saints, and the dismal Patriots. Jalen Hurts his back, and the way he looked last week in his return, shows us this offense has returned to full strength. The Eagles are a monster team, folks. And yes, they have something to prove. They post over 27.2-points per game, and allow just 17.8-points per game. While the Rams are pretty darn good. They just don't compare statistically here. There's no way their 22nd ranked run defense can even slow down, let alone contain the machine that is Saquon Barkley. That would be tough enough. But when you throw in the mix the legs of Hurts, they are in downright dire straits here. Offensively, Los Angeles really does rely upon their passing attack. Well, well, well…they must line up across from the NFL's No. 1 ranked pass defense. Let's flip it and talk offense for Philly, my friends. We already talked about how dominating the rushing attack is. But I want touch on AJ Brown. He cannot be happy having just one reception last week in the teams victory over the Packers. I look for him to be a major factor in the air here to make the Eagles offense equally dominant up top as well as on the ground. This will be a double-digit win for Philadelphia at home. Take the Eagles and soar. Thank you.

Texans.

Game 387.

1:30 PM PST/4:30 PM EST.

Saturday's AFC Divisional matchup between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.

Let me start this analysis by saying anybody that questions the fact the Kansas City Chiefs are a current dynasty, is crazy. This team is the new, New England Patriots. Enough said. Having said that, what I really find intriguing about this matchup is the fact these two teams played roughly a month ago on the same field, at Arrowhead Stadium, and the line there was Kansas City -3 1/2. Same situation, a month later, same location, and the Chiefs are laying north of a touchdown at currently about -8.5. Ask yourself why? I think this is a trap set by the oddsmakers. Yes, they have had their way with the Houston Texans, taking four in a row, and covering three of those four. And again yes, this team when it comes to the postseason is money, money, money. Of course, Patrick Mahomes has a lot more postseason experience than CJ Stroud. And I watched last week's match up with the Chargers. Stroud looked less than stellar, and got a lot of help from his defense. But even if that's the case here because the Kansas City defense is one of the best in NFL. As good as Mahomes and their offense is, it is their defense that has kept them in games, and winning games. Yes, Mahomes gets the headlines because he does anything and everything to make his offense successful. But this is a unit that still averages just 22.6 points per game. Let's not sell short the Houston Texans stop-unit. They allow a mere, 21.9 points per game, rank sixth in the NFL against the pass, and 11th against the rush. Without a solid rushing attack by the Chiefs to keep the Texans defense honest, and on the field, and eat up the clock, I feel this game is going to be a lot closer than the pointspread. I really do. Let's not forget, Houston has covered five of their last seven games played on the road. This isn't about who wins my friends. This is about who covers. And I feel this is a lot of points. One last item, K.C. is 0-5 ATS this season laying seven or more points. Take the doggie here to take a bite out of your book. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

NFC GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 431.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

The road to the top-seed in the NFC has two possibilities for Detroit. If Minnesota defeats Green Bay on Sunday, the Lions will have to beat the Vikings in their regular-season finale to take the NFC North, and earn the No. 1 spot in the NFC playoffs. If the Packers win, Detroit can lock up the division, and the best record in the conference with a victory here this week. It's true, the Lions defense has surrendered quite a few points over their last several outings. But this team is in a must-win situation, and is a perfect, 7-0 SU as a visitor on the season, covering six of those seven road games. It's hard to believe San Francisco is eliminated from any postseason opportunities, as the 49ers are 6-9 this season. Losing several key players has been fatal to the team. Dropping five of their last six SU, and only covering two of their last nine, the writing is certainly on the wall for San Fran. Despite some solid statistics, the 49ers offense has only accounted for 22.1-points per game this season, and have coughed up the ball a whopping 22 times. I do expect quarterback, Brock Purdy to have some success in the air here. But his ground game will be absolutely shut down against the NFL's third-ranked rush defense. No matter how you cut it, the Lions offense ranks at or near the top in just about every category. I know their defense has given up some points in recent games. But their offense will keep the 49ers defense on the field, and more importantly San Francisco's offense off it. Take Detroit. Thank you.

Miami Dolphins.

ODDSMAKERS MISTAKE PLAY.

Game 429.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

I feel the number in this game is definitely off by a few points. Maybe it's because the Dolphins are traveling into Cleveland to face the Browns, as the weather is supposed to be cold. We all know the statistics when Miami goes into cold weather. But this team is trying to make the postseason, hanging on by a thread. A victory here, and then next week against the Jets definitely helps their chances, although still very slim. Cleveland, at 3-12 SU, and 4-11 ATS, can't wait for this season to end. They've dropped and failed to cover four straight, and six of their last seven. Reports are the Browns will be going with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm, who was just one start this season under his belt. The quarterback owns a QBR of 30.1, tossing zero TD’s, and five INT’s. The offense is absolutely atrocious, averaging a laughable, 16.3-points per game, and turning the ball over 30 times. This one will get out of hand. Take Miami. Thank you.

Los Angeles Chargers.

AFC GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 407.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Chargers are playing for a higher seed here, while the Patriots are done for the season. Los Angeles enters this matchup having a few extra days to rest, coming off their December 19 road victory at Denver. That ATS cover was there seventh over their last nine outings. Meanwhile, New England is currently just 3-12 on the campaign, dropping five straight coming into this contest, losing by an average of 28.2-points per game during that span. The L.A. defense tops the league, yielding just 18.3-points per game, and snagging 14 takeaways. Things don't look too good for Drake Maye and the New England offense, which ranks 30th in the NFL, posting a dismal, 17.3-points for game, and committing 21 turnovers. Coach Harbaugh will have his team motivated, and certainly has an edge over his counterpart. Take the Chargers. Thank you.

Seattle Seahawks.

TOUCHDOWN PLAY.

Game 405.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

This is certainly the time of year when you have to do your due diligence in the NFL. What I mean by that is you’ve got to look at certain teams that need to win, the teams that can better their situation for the postseason, and the teams that are eliminated from any chance at the playoffs. It's funny how the Seahawks went from the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture to the No. 9 seed. They are in a must win situation here tonight, and even if they beat the Bears, and the Rams in Week 18, there is still a chance they will be on the wrong side of the cutline for the postseason. All that aside, they must win here tonight, as they face a Bears team that has been eliminated from any playoff opportunity. Chicago is riding a nine-game straight up losing streak, and have only covered two games since mid-October. This team has fallen way short of expectations. Their offense ranks 27th in NFL, accounting for just 18.9 points per game, and there once-feared defense is overworked and tired. Just over the last month, in their last five outings, they've gotten plowed for over 31.0-points per game. I feel Geno Smith, who by the way will reach 4,000 yards passing, probably in the first quarter of this game will shred the league’s 21st ranked pass defense. While the Seattle ground game isn't too threatening, just about everyone they have faced, has ran the ball with success against the 26th ranked run defense of Chicago. This comes down to which teams need it and which teams don't. And right now, the Seahawks need it. Let's face it, facing the likes of the Packers and the Vikings, which were their last two opponents, they now significantly step down in class and face Bears adversary here that has nothing to play, and shouldn’t be jeopardizing any of their stars. By the way, the Seahawks have also won and covered their last four games as a visitor. Take Seattle here folks. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

OM PLAY.

Game 107.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Yes, Detroit had a tough time with Chicago back on Thanksgiving Day. And yes, they have been hit with the injury bug. However, the lions, at 12-2 have remaining games after this week on the road at the 49ers, then at home against the Vikings. They want nothing more than to finish the top seed in the NFC, and all the advantages that go along with it. Chicago is done for the season, and let's face it, their offense is absolutely horrible. They have to go up against the seventh-ranked defense in the NFL, and try to compete on the scoreboard with the top scoring offense in the league as well. There's no way they can do that. Take the Lions. Thank you.

Minnesota Vikings.

MNF GOY.

Game 482.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

Chicago started the season off 4-2. But are currently riding the third-worst losing streak in the NFL, thanks to our own Las Vegas Raiders, and the New York Giants. Now they have to take it on the road and go into US Bank Stadium to face the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings. A Vikings team that is red hot, riding a six-game win streak. By the way folks, Chicago is winless as a visitor this year at 0-6 on the road, while Minnesota is 6-1 on their own field. Having said that, there's a couple of teams in the NFC that are already set. But a couple more wins can certainly help, and the Vikings are one of those teams. To close out their season, they're at home this week against the Bears, then take it on the road to Seattle, come back to Minneapolis to play Green Bay, and then finish their regular season off, and this might be a big game that decides division, on the road against the Lions. So, a “gimme” win here is big for this team right now, especially against a division rival.  The once-feared Chicago “D” is no more. Their offense is so bad, their defense is overworked and tired. During their current losing streak, they have allowed an average of 25.2 points per game. Minnesota and their well-balanced offense are posting over 26.1 points per game. They have a phenomenal passing attack, and a pretty solid running game. But it is their defense that has been a big reason why they're so successful this season. They rank second against the rush, first in takeaways, and sixth in points allowed. Take the Vikings. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Game 137.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

The Buffalo Bills wrapped up the AFC East already, and at 10-2, are just one-game behind the conference’s top team, the Kansas City Chiefs. This is not unfamiliar territory for Buffalo. However, as we all know over recent seasons, they have fallen short when it comes down to crunch time. They definitely want a different outcome this season. Many people out there might think that they're going to take their foot off the gas a little bit. But I am here to tell you they would be wrong. Buffalo is one of the hottest teams in football, winning seven in a row, and covering six of those seven. In consecutive games their offense scored 23, 34, 31, 30, 30, 30, and 35 points. Now they go into a domed stadium with perfect conditions. That to me spells doom for the host Los Angeles Rams. Speaking of the Rams, they have dropped their last two games played at home at the hands of the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles. Their defense has looked very vulnerable. They also have the San Francisco 49ers on deck, and can definitely be in a lookahead situation. I mentioned earlier the Los Angeles defense is beatable. They rank 21st in the league in points allowed, 15th against the pass, 28th against the rush, and 25th in total yards allowed. This does not bode well as they're going up against one of the most explosive, and well-balanced offenses in football. Not only that, but the Bills offense makes very few mistakes. On the flipside of the ball, the Buffalo stop unit is only allowing 18.7 points per game, and have snagged 13 takeaways already. Let's face it, we all know the Rams offense solely relies upon their passing game. Well, they're going up against the eighth ranked pass defense in the league. I mentioned earlier, many out there might think Buffalo might take their foot of the gas. But they cannot afford to do so. They want the top seed in the AFC, and they want what comes with it, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Under a touchdown as a gift. Take Buffalo. Thank you.

Steelers.

OM Play.

Game 130.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

I'm not in love with laying a big number with the Steelers. However, after this week Pittsburgh has to travel to Philly, then Baltimore, then return back home to face Kansas City and Cincinnati. They have a tough schedule to close out the regular season. The Steelers currently sit in first place in the AFC North at 9-3. They need victories. And what better team to face than the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has dropped eight of their last 10 straight up, seven of those 10 against the spread. They are a horrible road, team only covering one of their last five games played as a visitor this season. Now we throw in the "X" factor. The Browns took the Steelers down just a few weeks ago at home in poor weather conditions. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are great in revenge situations. By the way, the Steelers have won six of their last seven game straight up, with their average margin of victory in those wins coming by 8.0 ppg. Take Pittsburgh. Thank you.

Steelers.

AFC NORTH GOW.

Game 465.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

One thing Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers know how to do, is win during crunch time. Coming down the homestretch in the regular season, and playing good football it's something the Steelers team is accustomed to. Following their five-game straight up and against the spread hot streak. They can further distance themselves in their division, and in the AFC overall with a big victory here today. Cincinnati, let's be honest their season is over. There are 4-7 and have only won one game at home this season. The stout Pittsburgh defense, which ranks third in the NFL, allowing just 16.9 points per game, will wreak havoc on the Cincinnati offense. Yes, Joe Burrow leads the top passing unit in the league. However, without a stable ground attack to keep defenses honest, he is a sitting duck here today. Also, you can expect the Steelers offense to give the Bengals defense a heavy dose of the ground and pound. They will control the clock, the tempo, and the game. Take Pittsburgh. Thank you.

Seahawks.

OM PLAY.

Game 473.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Is there a bigger train wreck in the NFL this season than the New York Jets? I don't think so! Their head coach is gone, general manager is gone, play caller demoted, and their interim head coach is in way over his head. And let's face it, Aaron Rogers time in New York is coming to an end. Believe it or not, his winning percentage is lower than both Zach Wilson's and Sam Darnold’s. The Jets is done. They are just 1-7, both straight up and against the spread their last eight outings. The face a Seattle Seahawks opponent that is running hot, winning and covering their last two games, and looking to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC West. A big victory here today will do just that. The only issue the Seahawks have is Geno Smith turning the ball over. And I doubt very much you're going to see any forced mistakes made by the lackluster, Jets defense. I mean they rank 31st in the league with just two takeaways. The general public is on the wrong side, and the oddsmakers are going along with it. It is a mistake that we will take advantage of. Take Seattle. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers.

Late Game Bailout.

Game 310.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

Yes, the Miami Dolphins have won three in a row, and covered their last four. But (and there's always a big but), but when playing in temperatures below 40°, Tua Tagovailoa’s numbers are absolutely deplorable. He struggles badly, and so does the team. The weather forecast is cold, cold, cold, in Lambeau Field for this matchup. Please understand the Packers are playing really good football. There are 8-2 straight up their last 10, and are starting to really hit their stride. The Dolphins not only struggle in cold weather, but they're actually horrible when they travel too. Something Green Bay doesn’t do at home. Take the Packers. Thank you.