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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-05-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians -110 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
[b]INDIANS -112 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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08-04-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals -137 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -137 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
Nationals -137 4* MLB POD |
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08-02-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates -127 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Pirates -122 4* MLB POD |
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08-01-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Houston Astros +105 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
Astros +100 4* MLB pod |
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07-30-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs -114 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
[b]CUBS -110 4.5*mlbpod [/b] |
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07-29-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Diego Padres -106 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
[b]Padres -113 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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07-21-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox -178 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
White Sox -178 4* MLB POD |
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07-20-14 | Houston Astros +115 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 11-7 | Win | 115 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
Astros +114 4*MLB POD |
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07-19-14 | Houston Astros -105 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
[b]Astros -105 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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07-18-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -123 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
Tampa Rays -123 4* MLB POD |
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07-12-14 | Oakland A's +104 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Athletics +102 4* MLB POD |
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07-11-14 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners -123 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
[b]Mariners -123 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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07-09-14 | Kansas City Royals +104 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 5-4 | Win | 104 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
[b]Royals +104 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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07-08-14 | Atlanta Braves -144 v. New York Mets | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -144 | 2 h 34 m | Show |
[b]Braves -145 4.5*MLBÂ POD[/b] |
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07-05-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -113 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Indians -113 4* MLB POD |
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07-04-14 | San Francisco Giants -115 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Giants -117 5* MLB POD |
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07-02-14 | Los Angeles Angels -135 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
[b]Angels -140 4.5* MLB POD [/b] |
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07-01-14 | Seattle Mariners -127 v. Houston Astros | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
[b]Mariners -128 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-29-14 | Los Angeles Angels -118 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
[b]Angels -118 4.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-28-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles -139 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -139 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
[b]Orioles -137 5.5* MAX MLB POD[/b] |
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06-27-14 | Oakland A's -162 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
Oakland As -161 4.5* MLB POD |
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06-25-14 | Cleveland Indians -122 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Indians -121 4.5* MLB POD |
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06-24-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Arizona Diamondbacks -124 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Dbacks -123 4.5* MLB POD |
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06-21-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Oakland A's -140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
A's -140 5* MLB POD |
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06-19-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -135 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -135 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
[b]Nationals -140 3* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-17-14 | Texas Rangers -111 v. Oakland A's | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
[b]Rangers -114 3.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-15-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Houston Astros +148 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 39 m | Show |
[b]Astros +148 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-14-14 | Los Angeles Angels -108 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Angels -105 4.5* MLB POD |
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06-13-14 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -132 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -132 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
[b]Giants -130 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-12-14 | New York Yankees v. Seattle Mariners -111 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
Mariners -111 4* MLB POD |
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06-10-14 | Atlanta Braves -130 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Braves -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-06-14 | Washington Nationals v. San Diego Padres -121 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
[b]Padres -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-05-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -108 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Cardinals -113 4* MLB POD |
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06-04-14 | Chicago White Sox +170 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 170 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
[b]White Sox +170 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-02-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres -114 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
[b]Padres -117 4.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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06-01-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Arizona Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -134 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
4* MLB POD Dbacks -140 |
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05-30-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Seattle Mariners -120 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Mariners -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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05-30-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -133 | 6-1 | Loss | -133 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
[b]Blue Jays -134 2.5* MLB PLAY[/b] |
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05-29-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -130 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -130 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
[b]Blue Jays -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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05-25-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -156 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
Angels -156 4.5* MLB POD[/b] |
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05-24-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -114 v. Cincinnati Reds | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Cardinals -112 4.5* MLB POD |
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05-23-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -153 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ANGELS -153 5* MLB POD I rarely play games at this price, but I think the value is right with C.J. Wilson on extra rest going up agaisnt Duffy who has a 1.42 ERA which is bringing this line down a bit. Duffy has faced two of the worst hitting teams vs. LHP and now he faces the Angels who are 8th in OPS and scoring more than a run and a half more runs per 9 innings than the Royals are vs. LHP. Duffy may have the 0.83 WHIP and 1.42 ERA but he's walking nearly 4 guys per 9 and has had struggles throughout his career with his control. His xFIP suggests his ERA should be in the mid 4's and I agree as I believe that his luck of .162 average with balls in play is bound to come back to the mean. |
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05-21-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Pittsburgh Pirates -114 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
Pirates -109 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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05-20-14 | Seattle Mariners -107 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
Mariners -108 4* MLBPOD [/b] |
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05-19-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians +105 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
[b]Indians -108 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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05-18-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Houston Astros -112 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
Astros -111 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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05-17-14 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -119 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Rockies -119 4* MLB POD |
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05-15-14 | G2 San Diego Padres -111 v. G2 Cincinnati Reds | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show |
PADRES -111 4.5* MLB POD |
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05-14-14 | Cleveland Indians -101 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
Indians -101 4.5* MLB POD There is tremendous value here on the Indians Wednesday night as they send Corey Kluber to the mound who has pitched better than his numbers.. Hidden beneath the surface of an ERA and W/L record are raw stats that are quite impressive including 9.93 K/9, and 2.09 BB/9 it means he has control over his pitches and can strike you out. His xFIP and tERA also suggest that his ERA should be in the 3's. He does go up against a tough line up, but I think he's backed by the better bullpen as well which posts a 3.04 ERA this year compared to the Blue Jays 4.86. Dustin McGowan has had three rough starts at home and his raw stats do not say anything different with a 5.54 xFIP and a 5.66k/9 to 3.86 BB/9 ratio. He's going up against an Indians team that is very hot right now hitting .312 vs. RHP over their last 5 games and they rank in the top 5 in OPS over the last 7 days and top 10 overall vs. RHP on the season. |
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05-13-14 | San Diego Padres v. Cincinnati Reds -116 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
Reds -120 4* MLB POD |
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05-12-14 | New York Mets v. New York Yankees -148 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -148 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
Yankees -148 4* MLB POD |
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05-11-14 | Washington Nationals +120 v. Oakland A's | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Nationals +120 3* mlb pod |
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05-09-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -120 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Cardinals -120 4.5* MLB POD |
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05-08-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays -121 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Blue Jays -121 4.5* MLB POD Two veteran pitchers take the mound for today's match up in Toronto as R.A. Dickey looks to continue his streak of quality starts as he takes on A.J. Burnett who looks to continue his great year as he posts an ERA nearly under 2. Head to head Dickey has 7 of 10 quality starts against the Phillies over his last 10 while Burnett has given up 5 or more ER in 3 of last 4 starts in Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are a combined 12-28 off him with 5 HR. The Blue Jays offense is also starting to click scoring 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games compared with just 3 for the Phillies. The Phillies bullpen has not been very good and I expect Burnett to struggle on 4 days rest on the road facing the Blue Jays who are ranked 3rd in OPS vs. RHP this season which is the best offense Burnett has faced. Burnett did not go past 6 innings in the majority of his road starts on 4 days rest last year and now he has to face 9 real hitters being in an AL park where he struggled for years with the Yankees. R.A. Dickey is a streaky pitcher and when his control is right he will dominate and almost always give you a chance to win. The biggest issues that Dickey runs into when he struggles is control and the Phillies are 22nd in BB's and they only have 5 BB's in 103 AB against him. Dickey who is walking 5 guys per 9 on the year has reduced those numbers significantly at home with a 2.42 BB/9. A.J. Burnett will have the more challenging task and his raw numbers suggest he's been lucky to be where he is stat wise as his xFIP 3.87, and tERA 4.60 suggest. Blue Jays are a run better vs. RHP ranking 3rd in OPS compared to the Phillies 25th and are the hotter team offensively right now while the bullpen is in Toronto's advantage as they are fresher right now and their ERA is about a run lower in H/A splits. Once again I'll roll with the home team in an interleague battle as Toronto is 10-4 in their last 14 home games in interleague play. |
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05-07-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Boston Red Sox -142 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Red Sox -142 4* MLB POD I have had my struggles this year betting on or against the Red Sox, but I feel like they are about to get hot winning 3 of their last 4 games now and facing an over rated Reds team. I always like betting the home team in interleague play. I think the AL offense has a tremendous advantage and the NL pitching will have an advantage at home. First of all NL teams are not used to putting a quality bat out there for the extra hitter and when the AL team travel their hitter is put in an uncomfortable position of having to hit which can screw with his mentality when he goes onto the mound. Tonight we are betting the AL home team. Boston will send Jake Peavy to the mound on extra rest tonight which has been a very good thing. Dating back to last season Peavy has 9 straight quality starts on 5 or more days rest when he's at home posting a 2.47 ERA combined. He's got great success against the Reds posting a 2.14 ERA over 10 career starts. Reds hitters have a combined 71 AB, .183 avg, and .445 OPS vs. Peavy who always seems to pitch like the old Peavy when his arm is fresh. Mike Leake has been a quality pitcher throughout his career he will not wow you but he's consistent and has been consistently good on the road. However, now he has to face an extra hitter and the Red Sox offense seems to be coming around as Dustin Pedroia gets hot. The Red Sox are 77-31 in their last 108 inter league home games and typically beat up on RHP. Leake on just 4 days rest after pitching his best game in his last start and not getting the win will have a tough time here and he hands it over to a bullpen ranked 24th in ERA another major advantage for the Red Sox. |
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05-05-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Diego Padres +111 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 111 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
[b]Padres +107 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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05-02-14 | New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies -128 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Rockies -128 4* MLB POD I am still not sold on who the Mets send to the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler especially on the road.  Not to mention at Coors Field where the Rockies just continue to tear the cover off the ball with arguably their ace on the mound.  Jorge De La Rosa is the Rockies most consistent Rockies pitcher, but he has been far more dominant than most realize when you take into consideration that the Rockies are an amazing 42-14 in his last 56 home starts as a favorite.  De La Rosa has really been strong his last 3 outings and I think he continues that trend here on Friday night. |
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05-01-14 | Atlanta Braves -123 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Braves -123 4.5* MLB POD The Braves are down 9-0 right now and they lost 9-0 on Tuesday, but I expect them to come back and close out game 3 to avoid a sweep as hot as the Marlins have been at home they are 18-45 in their last 63 game 3's. The Braves also won't have to face another ridiculously hard throwing RHP after facing Nathan Eavoldi and Jose Fernandez back to back Henderson Alvarez who still throws pretty hard is going to be a lot easier. Alvarez just does not have the numbers against the Braves posting a 6.86 ERA in 4 career starts. Freeman, Gattis, Heyward, Johnson and Justin Upton are a combined 18-42 against Alvarez and that gives the Braves a significant advantage when you consider who they have on the mound.
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04-29-14 | Oakland A's -108 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
[b]A's -110 4* MLB POD[/b] |
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04-26-14 | Cincinnati Reds +113 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
[b]Reds +112 3* MLB POD[/b] |
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04-25-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates -101 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 0-1 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Pirates +100 2* play[/b] |
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04-25-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins +112 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
Twins +112 4* MLB POD |
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04-24-14 | New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox -115 | 14-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Red Sox -115 4* MLB POD I will take the home team with the better pitching in this one. The Yankees will also be busy answering questions about Pineda's pine tar incident from yesterday's match up, but I expect Boston to be focused to win this game as they are 18-3 in Felix Doubrant's last 21 game 3's. Felix Doubrant does not have great numbers against the Yankees, but they are better than his opponent and he's backed by the 3rd best bullpen in the league while Sabathia is backed by the 22nd. Doubrant had a 3.84 ERA here at home last year and has faced multiple top 10 offenses already this year while Sabathia has not faced a team inside the top 15 all year. Sabathia in his last 12 starts vs. Boston has a 6.48 ERA and he carries a 7.41 ERA in his last 6 at Fenway over the last 3 years. Sabathia is not walking guys but again he's faced some of the worst hitting teams in the young season and has still struggled. His fastball is down nearly 3mph on average and I just think the Red Sox are poised to go on a little winning streak here as they are 17-5 in their last 22 games vs. LH starter while the Yankees are 4-9 in Sabathia's last 13 vs. the Red Sox. |
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04-23-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. New York Mets +131 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 131 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
[b]Mets +130 3* play[/b] |
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04-22-14 | Baltimore Orioles +125 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Orioles +125 4* MLB POD |
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04-21-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's +107 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Oakland A's +107 4.5* MLB POD |
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04-20-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -152 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Red Sox -152 4.5* MLB POD |
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04-19-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Texas Rangers -115 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Rangers -115 4* MLB POD
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04-18-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Cleveland Indians -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
CLEVELAND INDIANS -140 5* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY Today's play of the day is on the Cleveland Indians as I love the spot they are in against the Blue Jays. First let's take a look at Justin Masterson who is backed by a bullpen that is nearly a run better in ERA on the year. Masterson has struggled in back to back starts, but he's coming back home on 5 days rest where he has been absolutely dominant over his last 6 starts dating back to 2012 posting just 3 ER over 40.2 IP for a 0.66 ERA. He's also got solid numbers against the Blue Jays with 5 of his 6 starts being quality posting a 2.79 ERA, but at home he's gone 23 innings in 3 starts posting a 1.57 ERA. Masterson has always been a better starter at home to begin with and he's 12-4 in his last 16 as a favorite. He will face a line up that is coming together nicely, but is still averaging over a run less vs. RHP than the Indians. Drew Hutchinson has a lot of talent, but he struggles with consistency alternating quality and bad starts. He really struggles vs. left handed hitters and it just happens that the Indians are hitting RHP well over 5.5 runs per 9 and will send 8 left handed batters to the plate tonight. Hutchinson in 3 starts this year is nearly walking 5 guys per 9 and overall he has walked 8.59 guys per 9 vs. LHB. Hutchinson has actually faced 5 batters in the line up who post a 1.258 OPS in limited at bats, but I think even with the juice we are getting good value on tonight's match up. |
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04-16-14 | Colorado Rockies +139 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Rockies +137 4* MLB POD |
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04-15-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +107 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 107 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Cardinals +106 4* MLB POD |
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04-13-14 | Boston Red Sox -104 v. New York Yankees | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Red Sox -108 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Red Sox do not want to lose 3 of 4 to the Yankees, and I think they are good enough to bounce back as they are 40-16 in their last 56 following a loss. Felix Doubrant will make the start for the Red Sox and he's had more quality starts against the Yankees than his opponent. In 8 starts he posts a 4.20 ERA against the Yankees and has held them to a .712 OPS in 86 AB. He's also pitched better in April compared with Nova who has struggled so I trust him a bit more to bounce back. I also trust the Red Sox bullpen just a bit more than the Yankees at this point. Ivan Nova has a 5.74 ERA over the last three years in April and right now he carries an ERA over 8 and a 2.25 WHIP into the game. Nava, Ortiz, and Pedroia are a combined 14-38 against Nova who struggles with his location early in the season. The Red Sox have a .849 OPS in 81 AB against him. Nova is also giving up a 23.5% line drive percentage and is walking more than 1 runner per 9 than he is striking out which is not a good mix. I also like that Doubrant and the Red Sox are 9-1 in his last 10 Sunday starts. |
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04-13-14 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners +126 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
2** PLAY
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04-13-14 | Detroit Tigers v. San Diego Padres +140 | 1-5 | Win | 140 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
2* play
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04-13-14 | Colorado Rockies +147 v. San Francisco Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
2* play
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04-12-14 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -135 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
[b]SF Giants -135 5.5* MLB POD[/b]
I believe we are getting tremendous value here in the pitching match up, the bullpen advantage, and the offense. The Rockies value is sky high right now they lead the majors with a .990 OPS, but just like last year that number will shrink on the road especially against good pitching. To put it in perspective the Rockies had a .808 OPS at home last year ranked #3, but on the road they had a .672 OPS ranked 25th. The Rockies also are 14-38 in their last 52 as a road dog and 16-35 in their last 51 when visiting the Giants. They'll face Matt Cain on Saturday... Matt Cain had an off year last year and we get value because of that along with his rough start to this year. However, all indications look good from his raw stats that he's due for a bounce back year as his velocity looks sharp and his line drive % is down from 22.4 % last year. His issue on the road was the long ball and now he gets to come home to the Giants friendly pitcher park that ranked 28th in HR/9. Matt Cain's overall stats vs. the Rockies are again nothing special when you look at his overall career, but at home he has been solid posting a 2.36 ERA in 34.1 IP with a 1.11 WHIP over the last three years. IN 174 AB they have a combined .689 OPS. Even though the Rockies are off to a fast start hitting their pitcher won't be supported by a bullpen like the Giants who post a 2.25 ERA on the season and a 0.64 ERA at home. The Rockies bullpen is far more rocky posting a 6.19 ERA on the road and a 4.93 overall. The Giants get to face another lefty in consecutive days in Brett Anderson. The Giants are tearing up LHP ranking 3rd right now in OPS and #1 in BB's. That's big because Brett Anderson as talented as he once was has major control issues and has not looked good this year with a loss in velocity as well. I believe the Giants will work themselves into better pitcher counts and they should get to Brett Anderson and continue their success vs. LHP this year. |
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04-11-14 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -141 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -141 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
Cardinals -138 4* MLB POD
This Cardinal team is a tough team to beat at home especially when you are bringing a RH starter to the table which the Cubs are tonight with Jeff Samardzija who over the last 3 years carries a 5.91 ERA at Busch Stadium. The Cardinal hitters have hit him hard in 103 AB they have a .330 average. The Cubs will also face a RH starter which they are 12-40 in their last 50 games parlay that with the Cardinals who are an impressive 45-14 at home over their last 52 games vs. a RH starter and you have a 76% angel here. Jeff Samardzija is also 8-20 in his last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. I like his upside but just not vs. one of the best teams in the NL. Also Joe Kelly takes the mound for the Cardinals and he has a 3.12 ERA at Busch Stadium in his career and posts a 2.61 career ERA over 30+ innings vs. the Cubs. Cubs hitters have a .586 OPS in 74 AB and the Cardinals bullpen has picked it up posting a 1.98 ERA over their last 5 compared with the Cubs at 5.28. |
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04-11-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins +109 | 1-10 | Win | 109 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Twins +109 2* bonus[/b]
This is almost 100% a fade on Bruce Chen and the Royals bullpen that has a 5.79 ERA on the year and a 7.62 over their last 3 games. Facing the Twins should help, but not tonight as Bruce Chen has a 5.60 ERA in his last 5 starts at Target Field and collectively the Twins have hit him well posting a .881 OPS in 128 AB. He's got a 4.67 ERA over his last 38 road starts and has been known more for his quality pitching at home not on the road. Twins will have a lot of RHB in their line up that should get quality ABs vs. Chen who is 1-10 in his last 11 Friday starts. The Twins also have revenge on their mind after losing 15 of their 19 meetings with the Royals a year ago. |
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04-10-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Philadelphia Phillies -118 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
[b]Phillies -117 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Brewers stock is high they continue to win games, 5 in a row to be exact, while the Phillies have lost 3 in a row. Add that in with Cliff Lee struggling in his season opener and we have a recipe for value. Cliff Lee is still a quality starter and getting him at home at this cheap of a price especially when the Brewers have not faired well against LHP this year scoring over 2 runs fewer than they do against RHP. Cliff Lee did have a rough start out in Texas against an AL team, but pitching back in the NL even against the hot hitting Brewers is much easier. This is an extremely cheap price for a pitcher that has a 2.84 ERA over the last three years which includes a 2.65 ERA at night. Estrada will make the start vs. the Brewers, but I'm not impressed in his 2 starts vs. the Phillies he has a 2.44 WHIP with a 9.00 ERA and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and it's expecting to be a windy day in Philadelphia today which will be an advantage the Phillies have over the Brewers. Plus the Phillies are 47-22 in their last 69 games following back to back games of allowing 9+ runs. |
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04-09-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs +109 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 109 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Cubs +109 4* MLB POD
I'm going to go ahead and go with an under dog for the 4th time this season for my POD's we are 2-1 on the year on POD dogs. I really believe the Cubs have the better starter on the hill in Jason Hammel who is notorious for fast starts with a 3.06 ERA in his last 16 April starts over the last 3 years he also has an ERA of 3.62 in his career against the Pirates and did well his last time out against the Pirates and has held their hitters to a .177 average and a .517 OPS lifetime over 79 total AB's. I truly believe the Cubs are going to be one of the more improved teams this year and getting them as a home dog at this point with an advantage on the mound is a good thing. They are 2-5 but easily could be 5-2 with 3 of their losses coming by less than 2 runs. Wandy Rodriguez has not won since last May and he will struggle on the road as he always does (4.05 ERA last 3 years). He has a 4.70 ERA in 13 lifetime starts at Wrigley and I think he will struggle here tonight. |
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04-08-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Colorado Rockies -126 | 15-3 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rockies -128 2.5* play[/b]
This is more of a fade on the white Sox with a cheap price to pay as the White Sox are 16-46 in their last 62 road games and 3-18 in their last 21 road games vs. a LH starter. The Rockies offense has gotten off to a great start at home and has a .362 average here they are also hitting lefties well. Quintana will start for the White Sox and he's better suited for home starts. Even against the National League where you get to face the pitcher Quintana never got passed the 6th inning a year ago and that means Chicago will have to rely on their bullpen again tonight after going to it in the 5th inning last night. The bullpen is not very good to start compared with the Rockies who have a 0.75 ERA at home out oft heir bullpen. Franklin Morales should also give the White Sox troubles as they struggle vs. LHP. |
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04-08-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -137 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Cardinals -138 4.5* MLB POD
The Cardinals have really dominated the Reds at home and have already taken 3 of 4 from them on the season overall, but are 38-17 in their last 55 home games vs. the Reds. Homer Bailey vs. Lance Lynn is already a repeat match up that the Cardinals won on the road and Bailey isn't likely to get his revenge when you look at the fact that he is 1-7 in his last 8 games at Busch. Over the last 3 years he posts a 5.47 ERA here and the Cardinals line up collectively have a .324 average and a .933 OPS in 179 AB. The Cardinals should get there runs here and when you factor in the Reds struggles offensively - .215 average 2.04 runs per 9 vs. RHP well I think this price is a fair price. Lance Lynn will take the mound he did not look great against the Reds in his first start 5 IP 3 ER, but in his 2 home starts last year he pitched great allowing 2 ER over 13 innings with 15k's to just 3 BB's. Lynn over the last 3 years has a 2.97 ERA at home over nearly 200 IP so it's safe to say he prefers to pitch here combined with a 22-13 record at night with a 3.47 ERA overall. Lynn also has 2.25 ERA in his April starts and I think being back at home will server him well in this match up. Neither team is tearing the cover off the ball, but we have the advantage with the home team as the Cardinals are 39-14 in their last 53, but even more impressive is that they are 44-13 (77% angle) in their last 57 home games vs. a RH starter. If you recall in some of my earlier write ups this season the Cardinals struggled vs. LHP last year and they are again early this season, but against RHP they just flat out dominated and despite losing some offense key pieces I think they added an upgrade in Peralta and Ellis is also a nice piece when they have to face LHP. |
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04-06-14 | San Francisco Giants +138 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Giants +139 2* play
I look for the Giants to pull off the sweep right now the only thing that separates these two teams is the offense and the Giants are more clutch right now. The Giants are scoring nearly double the runs compared with the Dodgers and Matt Cain has had great success in this ball park posting a 1.64 ERA in his last 6 starts here going back the last three seasons. Zack Greinke was unable to go deep into his first start and he really did not look sharp so I'm thinking we have plenty of value here to go with the Giants on Sunday night. |
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04-05-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
[b]Pirates -142 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Cardinals were 26th in OPS last year vs. LHP and they also got rid of David Freese I do expect them to be a bit better this year in that department with the addition of a few guys, but so far that has not been evident with their .125 average and .399 OPS in 32 AB this year.. It's a small sample, but overall the Cardinals have not hit .191 average and 2.50 runs per 9 compared with the Pirates .238 and 4.14 runs per 9. Not a major advantage but Francisco Liriano will take the mound today for the Pirates and he has a 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts last year and over 3 regular season starts against the Cardinals he went 24 IP and had a 0.75 ERA. He carried that over into the post season with a quality start going 6 innings giving up 2 ER vs. the Cardinals. He will be the better pitcher on the mound on Saturday. Joe Kelly likely won't hold onto his role as the #5 starter throughout the year, but he can be very good out of the bullpen. He did carry a 2.69 ERA last year, but a lot of it was lucky when you consider his raw stats 5.73 K/9 vs. 3.19 BB/9 and a 82.4 % left on base percentage. The Pirates hitters had a good success off him with a .299 average and .822 OPS, but struggled with runners on. If that happens again today at least we know as of now the Pirates have the better bullpen posting a 1.42 ERA over 19 IP this season after being #3 last year with a 2.89 ERA. The Cardinals on the other hand rank 30th currently with a 9.58 ERA and were not in the top 10 last year. Pittsburgh is 42-19 in their last 61 as a home favorite and the Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 12 visits. |
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04-04-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Houston Astros +138 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Astros +138 4* MLB POD
The Angels are off to their typical slow start despite having a talented team. They went 9-16 last April and are off to a nice 0-3 start, but we are still catching value fading them and this scenario warrants it yet again as the Angels throw an arm up there in Garret Richards who has plenty of mustard on his fastball, but has the inability to control games and is 2-8 in his last 10 road starts while he has a 4.70 ERA overall on the road. This is not a spot to back the Angels as favorites as Richards gave up 9 ER in just over 12 innings pitched in his two starts vs. the Astros. Both of those were at home where Richards is a better pitcher. The Astros will send 6 lefties out there to face Richards which shapes up well because Richards really really struggles vs. LHB. For the Astros they will throw out Lucas Harrell hoping his control issues are better and he returns to his 2012 form rather than 2013. Even though he struggled in 2013 he had some quality starts at home and has a 3.82 ERA over the last 3 years at home. He struggled in 2013, but despite all of that he posted a 1.53 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Angels. He did not always go deep into games, but he can hand it off to a bullpen that's pitching well after facing the Yankees.. Much better than the Angels who are last in the league with a 10.80 ERA out of their bullpen. |
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04-04-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks +125 v. Colorado Rockies | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks +125 1* Free Play
The Rockies had the 28th ranked bullpen a year ago and they are off to a similar start with an ERA over 8 despite some of the additions. They'll start Juan Nicasio tonight, but don't expect him to go deep into the game. Nicasio has easily averaged over 3BB/9 the last two seasons and he's got an ERA at 5.02 at home over the last 3 years combined. Against the Diamondbacks he posts an 8.05 ERA over 5 starts. Randall Delgado is not great, but his name gives us value here and Colorado has just 37 AB against with a .216 average and a .608 OPS. I will take the value with the Dbacks on Friday night who have beaten the Rockies 4 out of the last 5 times. |
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04-03-14 | Minnesota Twins +138 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 10-9 | Win | 138 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Twins +138 4* MLB POD
I'll go with the Twins to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon. Phil Hughes will take the mound for the first time for the Twins and I think he will have a solid season now that he's not in a pitcher happy park. Hughes has pitched well at US Cellular Field 1.38 ERA and he's allowed a .130 average and a .326 OPS to the White Sox hitters in 69 at bats. Jose Quintana had a solid year last year with an ERA below 4 and that's why we get such a high line here. Quintana had a 3.62 ERA in his career at US Cellular field, but in 4 starts here vs. the Twins he's got an ERA close to 9 as he's allowed 17 ER in 18.2 IP. The Twins collectively have a 1.027 OPS against Quintana who performs better during night games where he has an ERA nearly a run better than day games. I expect the Twins to be in this game with the lead. |
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04-02-14 | New York Yankees -155 v. Houston Astros | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Yankees -155 4* MLB POD
The Yankees are my top play today, I did not expect them to win yesterday with CC on the mound who is clearly not the Yankees ace any longer. Kuroda meanwhile has a 2.99 ERA in April over the last 3 years combined and over that period of time he's got a 0 ERA vs. the Astros in 3 starts. The Yankees will face an inexperienced Cosart with their line up that is built on a veteran group with plenty of offense. I'm expecting a big win from the Yankees who are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. the Astros. |
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04-01-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Texas Rangers -136 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Rangers -136 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Texas lost 14-10 on opening day, but I see them rebounding here. The Phillies put 6 lefties in the line up yesterday including a switch hitter and now they have to face a lefty. I expect some tweaks to the line up because of that, but this is a team that was 22nd in OPS vs. LHP last year and 26th in average. Their line up is basically the same and I don't see anything changing as they will struggle against LH starters. Martin Perez held his own last year with a 3.36 ERA at home which is hard to do in Texas. AJ Burnett is coming off a great year last year, but opening up on the road and in the AL are not his specialties. Burnett has been a solid pitcher when he's in his own ball park in the NL, but here he has to go on the road where he carries a 4.74 ERA over the last 3 years and face a Rangers team that has had some success against him. Over his last 6 starts in Texas dating back to 2008 he has allowed 18 ER in 34 innings. Both Prince Fielder and Beltre have good numbers against him and I don't think he'll get the run support that Cliff Lee got here on Monday. |
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03-31-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles +108 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 108 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
Baltimore Orioles +108 4* MLB POD
We are getting a ton of value here on the Orioles hosting the Red Sox. On paper it appears the Red Sox hold a big advantage on the mound, but Chris Tillman has a 2.21 ERA over his last 10 starts vs. the Red Sox and has even held David Ortiz to 1-16 in his career. Combined the Red Sox carry a .181 average and a .509 OPS in 138 AB vs. Tillman. The Orioles have one of the leagues deepest bullpens so I expect whenever Tillman gets into trouble with the lead that the bullpen can come in and dominate. Lester on the other hand has not pitched well vs. the Orioles he has a 4.02 ERA in his last 9 starts over the last 3 years, but in 3 starts at Camden Yards last year he had a 4.76 ERA. The Orioles won't make things easier for Lester adding Nelson Cruz to the mix who is 10-22 against Lester parlayed with Adam Jones and matt Weiters success and I think the Orioles should be able to get to Lester early. All 3 are relatively fast starters with .800+ OPS in their last 3 Aprils combined. |
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10-30-13 | St. Louis Cardinals +110 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Cardinals +112 4* MLB POD It's Wacha Wacha time in game 6. This kid has been amazing this post season and I think he'll shine again at Fenway where he just made one mistake in his first start, but still got the win. Wacha was better against the Dodgers the second time around so saying that the Red Sox will figure this kid out probably is not accurate. He's pitched like a veteran with 27 innings and 11 hits this post season. He's got a better raw stat line than John Lackey who starts for Boston. Lackey has been solid this post season, but his tERA of 4.17 on the season does not impress me and he only had 7 quality starts out of 13 total starts on extra rest. He gave up 3 ER to the Cardinals in his first start and he had to pitch an inning of relief on Sunday which would have been his throwing day in between starts. However, the stress and the way you throw out of the bullpen in the World Series is different and I think that will have some sort of impact, because pitchers are creatures of habit and what Lackey had to do on Sunday was out of the ordinary. Plus I think this Cardinal team is a resiliant bunch and they won't be spooked by Boston in game 6. They are 48-21 in their last 69 following a loss and 11-4 following an off day. They also are 75-36 in their last 111 vs. RH starter.
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10-26-13 | Boston Red Sox -102 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Red Sox +102 4* MLB POD
When looking at this match up you will break down stats and pitching match ups until you are blue in the face. Both of these teams are very comparable and it's a good reason why they are playing in the world series to begin with. Both teams were tops in their league vs. RHP which they'll face today. Both bullpens have the same ERA when you look at their home away splits, both pitchers have similar RAW stats as far as true ERA or xFIP. So on the surface it's very hard to make a decision on this game which is why you are seeing it as basically an even money line spread. Despite that, the public is absolutely pounding the Cardinals to death for 68% of the bets and rightfully so Joe Kelly has an ERA under 3 and Jake Peavy just gave up 7 ER in his last start and an ERA over 5 on the road. I'm taking the Red Sox because of value here. I think the value is on the Red Sox and it's evident that Vegas is totally fine taking more money on the Cardinals without moving the line and that's because Joe Kelly is over rated. Kelly has come down to life with a 4.41 ERA in three post season starts with a 1.47 WHIP indicating it could have been much worse. When you look over his starts you can see why he's had success. He's faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 10 in offense vs. RHP and he has not faced a top 5 team, but he will tonight. Kelly has been extremely lucky with an 83% strand rate and his 5.73 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 do not shout sub 3 ERA material. Peavy has better numbers 7.53 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. Peavy is way over due for a good start in the playoffs and he may not have it here, but I'm still going to back the Red Sox and this offense. Peavy does have 3 starts at this addition of Busch Stadium and a 2.25 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP. He's also had 10 of 14 quality starts this year on 5+ days rest so he should have plenty of confidence going into this start. Boston is also 38-17 in their last 55 inter league road starts vs. RH starter. 82-32 in their last 114 vs. RH starter in inter league play. It also helps that Dana Demuth who has a smaller strike zone on average is behind the plate because that fits the personality of the Red Sox and it won't help Joe Kelly who has control issues to begin with. There is no surprise that the Red Sox are 17-4 in Demuth's last 21 behind home plate. Lastly, both bullpens have been superb, but the Red Sox bullpen has been better and the Cardinals may have to go deep into their bullpen as I don't think Kelly is going to go deep into this game. |
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10-23-13 | St. Louis Cardinals +120 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Cardinals +112 5* MLB POD We all saw how the Red Sox offense struggled after some time off when they were waiting for the Tigers as Anibal Sanchez was masterful, but struggled with control leaving in the 6th inning with a no hitter but 6 walks. Tigers still won that game and now Adam Wainwright comes in with a better curve and far better control. Red Sox have no faced Wainwright and he's certainly the better pitcher on the mound. The hitters that have faced Wainwright have not hit him in 65 AB they have a .169 average and a .598 OPS. Wainwright is on extra rest compared with Lester and posts a 1.61 ERA this season when he's on 5 or more days of rest with all 12 going at least 7 innings with an average of 8 innings pitched. Jon Lester has had a good post season and he's certainly capable of throwing another great game here tonight. However, he's on shorter rest although still 5+ days. He also had 12 starts this year on 5 or more days rest and the results are not nearly as good. half of those starts did not go 7 innings and he posted a 3.24 ERA with an average 6.1 innings pitched. I favor the Cardinals arms and bullpen over the Red Sox who seem to be relying on Koji Uehara too much because the rest of the bullpen is a bit sketchy. This is the World Series and in this type of game it comes down to who can make the place in the clutch. I think the Cardinals getting Allen Craig back as a DH is going to help tremendously. We so Johny Peralta do it all post season after sitting out and I think Craig can do it too. Craig was one of the best hitters with 2 outs and with RISP. Speaking of which Cardinals own a significant advantage in OPS, average and on base percentage in the playoffs and regular season with runners on and runners in scoring position with 2 outs. To put it in perspective the Cardinals had a .821 OPS and a .305 average with RISP and 2 outs during the season compared with the Red Sox .747, and .249. I see a lot more weak links and strike out batter in the Sox line up and I think the Cardinals have a bigger edge.
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10-18-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -125 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
[b]Dodgers -125 5.5* MLB POD[/b]
Clayton Kershaw has to come up with a big game and beat the hot Michael Wacha who I feel is finally going to come back to earth a bit on Friday night. The Dodgers hitters looked really comfortable at the plate in their last start and are 52-20 in their last 72 vs. RH Starter. Meanwhile the Cardinals have struggled all year vs. LHP and I don't see how it's going to all of a sudden change. In their last 10 they are hitting .156 vs. LHP with just 1.69 runs per 9. At home the Cardinals are scoring 2.02 less runs per 9 vs. LHP compared with RHP and Kershaw is bound to go the complete game here on Friday night. Kershaw is on 5 days rest where he posts a 2.06 ERA this season, but even more importantly he's off back to back games of less than 100 pitches with 72 and 91 pitch totals. He's got plenty in his tank right now and posts a 1.43 ERA in a start following a start with less than 100 pitches. That has happened 10 times this year with quality starts in every start with only 1 allowing 3 ER which came of 7.1 innings. Kershaw has had his issues at times with the Cardinals, but that's why we are getting decent value at -125. |
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10-16-13 | Boston Red Sox +111 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
[b]Red Sox +114 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Red Sox should have this series in the bag as it seems like the Tigers are dead now after they nearly had the series in control and they choked again last night the Red Sox should cruise through today's game and look to wrap the series up. The Tigers bats and untimely hitting have been the difference as this team is struggling .212 and 2.39 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games. They'll face Jake Peavy who has pitched better than his stats indicate so we are getting tremendous value here on Wednesday night. Peavy had 1 start this year vs. the Tigers allowed 4 ER on only 4 hits in 7 innings. 3 of the 4 hits were home runs. That won't happen in Detroit not in the playoffs. Plus he owns the Tigers hottest hitter in Johny Peralta who is just 7-34 against Peavy. Most of this line up is struggling with Cabrera 7-31 in October, Fielder 8-29 with 0 HR, Hunter 6-33, Jackson 3-33, Avilla 5-25, Infante 5-28. Victor Martinez has hit well, but his questionable for this game. Doug Fister will have his hands full in this one as he allowed 11 hits 6 ER in a home start to the Red Sox earlier this year. He's not a power pitcher who strikes out many batters so the Red Sox are going to be putting a ton of balls in play and that will only benefit them as they continue to dominate RHP. |
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10-15-13 | St. Louis Cardinals +126 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 4-2 | Win | 126 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
[b]Cardinals +126 MLB POD[/b] No matter who pitches.
How quickly things can change in a series as the Dodgers are now favorites to win this game and then will become favorites to win the series with Kershaw and Greinke on the bump next. As I mentioned in my POD last night where I was on the Dodgers. The Cardinals struggle big time vs. LHP and that's not just a recent trend it's been happening all year, but now they face another RHP and their offense should score enough to win here. The Dodgers are making a mistake or at least taking a high risk I have to fade by starting Ricky Nolasco who has not pitched since September 25th. Nolasco was supposed to start against the Braves and Mattingly did not like what he saw in the bullpen session and started Kershaw on 3 days rest. Pitchers, especially starting pitchers are creatures of habit and Nolasco has been healthy over his career and rarely made starts where he was on more than 5 days rest. In fact I had to go back to see and since 2008 he's made 6 starts with significant rest and the results are not good posting a non quality start in all 6 and a collective 10.87 ERA. Add in that hte Cardinals have 171 AB, .333 average and a .830 OPS against him with sick numbers from Beltran, Freese, Jay, and Holliday and I love the Cardinals tonight even if Mattingly pulls Nolasco early. Lance Lynn is coming in under the radar because of his struggled on the road. It's not like the Dodgers are tearing the cover off the ball and Lynn has two starts against the Dodgers on the road in the last 13 months and he dominated in only 12 IP he had 16K's to 3BB's allowing only 7 hits and 1 ER. Collectively the Dodgers have 50 AB and a .436 OPS while Lynn has lower HR/9 percentages and a lower line drive % compared with Nolasco. Cardinals are a gritty bunch who are 54-24 in their last 78 following a loss. They know what is ahead of them if they don't get this win and I think it really got to them the way this Dodgers team was celebrating on the bases. I really expect this team to come out with a great game plan and if Lynn struggles they have enough depth in their bullpen to get some outs and then get to Nolasco. Their bullpen has a 1.88 ERA in their last 3 appearances each combined while the Dodgers are at 2.77. This bullpen has feasted on the road all year and will be the reason they get to the World Series. |
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10-14-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers +110 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 110 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Dodgers +108 4.5* MLB POD
Okay, people are acting like the Dodgers were blown out in both games, but easily could have taken both or at least a split. I don't think this team is in a panic right now even though they have to face Adam Wainwright who we will get to in a second. First Ryu needs a bit of an introduction. He was bad in his start vs. the Braves, and was pulled early. Ryu is plenty fresh and faces a Caridnals team that struggles big time vs. LHP. Not only are they 3-7 in their last 10vs. LHP on the road, but in their last 10 games they are hitting .189 vs. LHP. They were 26th in the regular season in OPS vs. LHP and Ryu pitched a gem on the road against them 7 IP 0 ER. This game is at home where he posts a 2.61 ERA. Cards are 6-15 in their last 21 road games vs. a winning record. In my last write up of game 5 with Wainwright on the mound I talked about his pure dominance on 5 days rest. He came out pitched a complete game allowing 1 ER in the win. Now he has to go on 4 days rest after that emotional start where he just gave everything he had. Not only does he have to go on 4 days rest, but he's traveling cross country to the west coast to do so. A look back at his 4 starts on 4 days rest following 9 innings pitched this season and he posts a 7.43 ERA. I had to look back to his 2010 year where he was great to see the last time he went on the west coast on 4 days rest after a complete game and he faced the Dodgers allowed 4 ER in 6 innings. Dodgers will make the necessary adjustments they are hitting .282 and have a .817 OPS this post season vs. RHP meanwhile the Cardinals are hitting .149 and have a .436 OPS this post season vs. LHP. I think Dodgers get back into the series here tonight! |
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10-13-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
Red Sox -126 4.5* MLB POD Bucholz in his home starts vs. the Tigers has been dominating with a 1.20 ERA while allowing just 16 hits in 30 inning. It's not like the Tigers have been ripping the ball they scored just 1 run and the Red Sox will do everything they can to avoid going down 2-0. I don't think there is any way they lose this game. Even yesterday they grinded out at bats for 6 walks against Scherzer they just could not come up with the big hit, but with a game under their belt I think they do. Max Scherzer has been dominating this year, but in 8 career starts vs. the Red Sox he's got a 7.01 ERA. Tigers are also just 16-36 in their last 52 games at Boston.
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10-12-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -139 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -139 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
Red Sox -137 5.5* MLB POD I can't even believe the Tigers are here again but they are and they send Anibal Sanchez to the mound who led the American League in ERA. Sanchez had a 2.44 ERA on the road, but over his last three starts he posted a 5.65 ERA. I think Sanchez is a bit over rated when you look at his road starts he's nearly walking 3 guys per 9 and he did not face a single team in the top 5 in hitting vs RHP all year and now he has to face the Red Sox who were #1 with a .818 OPS by a wide margin. He only faced 2 teams on the road ranked inside the top 10 so you could say he had the easy schedule. He will have his hands full with the Red Sox line up that just continues to make pitchers work for everything and we know about the Tigers struggles out of the bullpen. The Red Sox send a Jon Lester to the mound who posted a 2.57 ERA in 13 starts since the All Star break. Lester has been dominant down the stretch and continued that into the post season with a great start vs. the Rays 7.2 innings and 2 ER. He has a 2.54 career ERA in 9 games in post season play with 7 starts. He's on extra rest here facing a Tigers team that's not itself offensively and was not very good vs LHP on the road only scoring 3.65 runs per 9. Lester had 3.03 ERA at home and allowed 1 ER over 7 innings in his home start vs. the Tigers. Lester comes into this game on extra rest and he's got 8 of 9 quality starts in that situation at home posting a 2.63 ERA overall. It all starts at the top of the line up and Ellsbury right now is 9-18 in the playoffs while Austin Jackson is 2-20 with 13K's.
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10-10-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's +104 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Athletics +102 4.5* MLB POD
Game #5 and Verlander on the mound for the Tigers who have to feel good about their chances, but they are nearly under dogs? Verlander's pedigree has the public running to bet him tonight, but I'm not going to fall into that trap. Despite pitching a brilliant game already in this series I'm still not buying into Verlander who is having an off year with over 3 walks per 9 and a tERA nearing 4. Verlander as brilliant as he was only went 7 innings in the 1-0 loss in this series, and only went 5 and 6 innings in his other two starts against the A's which is a major problem because if this turns into a game of the bullpens the A's have a major advantage. Sonny Gray will make the start for the A's and all Gray did was go 8 innings allowing only 5 base runners and 0 ER in his first post season start. Gray has excellent stuff and I expect similar things from him tonight at home where he posts a 1.66 ERA this year in 48 innings. He's got better K, and control numbers than Verlander this year and a lower tERA with just 19.5 line drive %. Tigers also have struggled due to Cabrera not being 100% and have a .217 average over their last 10 games vs. RHP scoring just 2.10 runs per 9. While the A's are hitting .268 and scoring 5.79. |
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