Cappers Sports Picks

North Carolina +8.5  w/ Tennessee -1 3.3% Teaser

North Carolina - Stanford’s offense has looked great over the last 5 games and why shouldn’t they?  They faced defenses ranked 90th, 105th, 124th, 126th, and 128th in run defense.  They faced teams ranked 87th, 71st, 113th, 120th, and 127th in yards per play allowed.  North Carolina’s defense comes in ranking 67th vs. the run and 46th in yards per play defense, but they have a better offense than all of those recent opponents that Stanford faced led by their star QB Mitch Tribusky who could be the #1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. 

Stanford has an excellent defense, but against good passing teams they give up yards and points.  Washington and Washington State have top 30 passing units and both put up 40+ points and were 5 for 6 in the red zone for TD’s.  That’s key here for North Carolina as I think they put up enough points to win this game.  Stanford really struggles against average defenses and now they won’t have their best player in Christian McCafrey who opts out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft which in my opinion is a lame move.

Conference update – PAC 12 – 0-3 ATS, ACC – 5-0 ATS.

Tennessee – Offensively 16 points per game on the road this year.  They are without their star WR and QB in this game in Westerkamp and Tommie Armstrong still nursing the hamstring.  If they do play Armstrong which they have said they won’t he won’t nearly be the threat he typically was.  Tennessee on the other hand has been really good in bowl games of late.  They really got banged up this year and Joshua Dobbs really is the better QB in this game.  He also has Alvin Kamara one of the under rated players in the SEC. This game is also in Nashville so we will see plenty of orange jerseys in the crowd. 

North Carolina +8.5  w/ Tennessee -1 3.3% Teaser

North Carolina - Stanford’s offense has looked great over the last 5 games and why shouldn’t they?  They faced defenses ranked 90th, 105th, 124th, 126th, and 128th in run defense.  They faced teams ranked 87th, 71st, 113th, 120th, and 127th in yards per play allowed.  North Carolina’s defense comes in ranking 67th vs. the run and 46th in yards per play defense, but they have a better offense than all of those recent opponents that Stanford faced led by their star QB Mitch Tribusky who could be the #1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. 

Stanford has an excellent defense, but against good passing teams they give up yards and points.  Washington and Washington State have top 30 passing units and both put up 40+ points and were 5 for 6 in the red zone for TD’s.  That’s key here for North Carolina as I think they put up enough points to win this game.  Stanford really struggles against average defenses and now they won’t have their best player in Christian McCafrey who opts out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft which in my opinion is a lame move.

Conference update – PAC 12 – 0-3 ATS, ACC – 5-0 ATS.

Tennessee – Offensively 16 points per game on the road this year.  They are without their star WR and QB in this game in Westerkamp and Tommie Armstrong still nursing the hamstring.  If they do play Armstrong which they have said they won’t he won’t nearly be the threat he typically was.  Tennessee on the other hand has been really good in bowl games of late.  They really got banged up this year and Joshua Dobbs really is the better QB in this game.  He also has Alvin Kamara one of the under rated players in the SEC. This game is also in Nashville so we will see plenty of orange jerseys in the crowd. 

Georgia pk 3.3%

TCU’s offense has struggled all year long and faced an average opponent ranked 83rd in yards per play defense.  Here they face their first top 50 defense here and this is an offense led by Kenny Hill who struggled vs. SEC defenses before leaving Texas A&M and taking a year out.  This is a guy who was pulled from games this year who is coached by “co-offensive coordinators.”  I’ve never liked a team that decides to have two guys doing one job even if you split up the responsibilities who is the leader come game day? 

Georgia’s defense ranks 14th holding opponents 83.3 yards per game under their season average.  TCU’s offense is extremely predictable this year.  They run the air raid, but their leading receiver is a running back in Kyle Hicks.  I believe Georgia will be able to come up with a scheme to stop that.

TCU went winless vs. top 4 teams in the Big 12 and at least Georgia had some bright spots throughout the year.  They have the better QB in this match up and their pair of running backs are healthy which a big key here is because I think they will be able to run the ball against TCU’s defense.  TCU’s defense gave up 21 rushing TD’s this year and 4.11 ypc which is high compared to recent TCU defenses.

Typically I would back Gary Patterson in a scenario like this.  TCU is great off extra rest or a bye and 8-2 in their last 10 bowls, but this season has been something different for this team.  The defense played well at times, but was inconsistent.  Looking at the quotes and I just don’t see this team being too excited.  Meanwhile Georgia is getting both RB’s back for 2017 and would love to beat TCU to head into 2017 with a ton of excitement. The talent level is just higher with Georgia.  The SEC was 3-0 last year in bowl games vs. the Big 12 winning by 22, 28, and 29.  The talent difference between these conferences has only gotten worse. 

Colorado -3 2.2% play

I will take the Buffaloes here despite them beign without their star defensive coordinator in Jim Leavitt who is moving onto Oregon.  I still think they are the better team and faced the tougher schedule this year.  The PAC 12 went 3-0 vs. the Big 12 this year with an average margin of victory of 11 points.

Let’s talk defense.  Colorado ranks 11th overall in yards per play allowed having faced a tough group of offenses ranking 48.5 in ypp.  Oklahoma State faced a similar strength of schedule 46.36 and ranked 90th.  I will take the better defense in this match up especially since the strength of this Colorado defense is the pass rush and pass defense.  Oklahoma State’s offensive strength is the pass game, but they have faced an average pass defense ranking 80th an average overall defense ranked 74th.  Colorado ranks 4th vs. the pass and is the best defense Mason Rudolph and company will face.

Colorado’s offense ranks 78th, but they have faced two top 5 units and an average 57th ranked YPP defense.  I think they will be able to move the ball against Oklahoma State.  The key is the running game with their QB Liufau.  In their 3 losses he had a total of 19 yards rushing, and Oklahoma State has had a ton of issues defending mobile QB’s.  Baylor’s Seth Russel ran for 65, Iowa State’s Joel Lanning 67, Kansas State’s Jesse Ertz 153, and TCU’s Kenny Hill 79 yards.  I’ll back the senior QB who didn’t think he was healthy enough to play this year in his final game as I expect Colorado to win this one by a TD or more.

Arkansas +7 4.4% play

I have mentioned several times I like backing ACC teams the best this bowl season and so far they have delivered going 3-0 SU and ATS.  This is one game I will look to fade, because we have a under rated Arkansas team as a TD underdog.  Virginia Tech though they’d get a better bowl having won their ACC division and losing by just 7 to Clemson in their bowl game, but they don’t.

Arkansas defense has been dreadful this year, but I really factor in the fact that they have played offences ranked an average 45 in yards per play.  Here they play #58, and they are well rested.  This team had a brutal stretch and injuries and players were banged up, but here they should be 100% and get their leading tackler back in Greenlaw who went out in the Alabama game.  Virginia Tech’s offense will pose a threat here with Jerrod Evans at QB having a great season, but when you really look at it the faced an average defense ranked 70th in YPP defense.

Arkansas offense should have success and in order to do so they must protect their QB Austin Allen and run the football.  Allen has dynamic receivers when given time this offense can score, but the problem is he faced some of the best defenses in the nation including 3 top 10 units.  He faced teams with a pass rush ranked 4th, 10th, 15th, 16th, 24th, and 32nd, but here he faced 59th.  Virginia Tech not as strong this year in pass rush and they lose a guy on the DE in Vinny Mihota that they have to replace.  They lack a natural pass rusher.  I give an edge to Arkansas offensive line not having to face a Myles Garret, Jonathan Allen or Arden Key is a big deal.

Virginia Tech’s defense was solid this year, but they lacked the pass rush and they are vulnerable against the run.  They had a 4 game span where they allowed 5 ypc in each game.  I think Virginia Tech will do a good job early of stopping the run, but I can see Virginia Tech coming out trying to loosen this defense up with their passing game which I think will be effective.   Overall I give Arkansas a shot to win this game so grabbing this as a TD is good value! 

South Carolina +10 5.5% POD

I like the Gamecocks and not just because they are out of the SEC.  They have won their last 4 bowls, and are 4-0 vs. the American Athletic Conference the last 4 years and I think they come into this game in the right situation.  Let’s touch on the conferences first though because it is important to note that the SEC has depth and we are getting double digit spread here with a South Carolina team that has a lot of young talent and showed progressions at the end of the season.  The AAC is 1-4 in bowl games so far and 7-16 over the first 4 years now.  Meanwhile the SEC went 9-2 last year and is 1-1 this year so far.

South Carolina’s offense can stay on the field for them in this game.  This running game go tgoing late in the season when Jake Bentley took over at QB.  The offense went up by 64 yards per game, 10.5 points per game, and less turnovers.  The running game led by two freshman in Dowdle and Turner are both freshman.  They have one of the best WR in the SEC when healthy in Deebo Samuel and he will be for this game.  This team averages 4.65 ypc in wins and 2.53 in losses.  When they can stay on the field their defense also plays better and that’s what I predict for them in this game.  South Florida is among the worst run defenses in the nation and 120th in overall defense.  Bentley throwing the ball, and Dowdle running the ball will be a winning combination here.

South Florida comes into this game with a potent offense that could score enough to cover this high spread, but I believe South Carolina will shorten this game.  South Florida also already announced the new coach after Willie Taggart left.  We have seen bad results with that scenario this bowl season with Temple and Houston winning as favorites.  South Florida’s offensive coordinator will coach this game, but Charlie Strong is waiting to take this program over and I don’t know how much motivation he will have here.  We saw similar results last year with the SEC Auburn team defeating Memphis out the of the American in this very bowl game last year 31-10 after Justin Fuente jumped ship from Memphis.  I don’t know if I feel confident that South Carolina will win this one, but I do like them to cover the spread.

Miami -2.5 5.5% POD

I’m backing the ACC team in Miami.  There is a clue in this line with West Virginia having 10-2 record out of the Big 12 with their only loses being against two top 10 teams, but yet they are under dogs.  Dana Holgorson already expressed his disappointment with being in this bowl game despite a 10-2 record and I’m also not really respecting the Big 12.

Miami was banged up all year long in key games on the offensive line and QB Brad Kaaya had some injury issues that he fought through so I think you see the best version of Miami in this game.  West Virginia lost to those two top 10 teams by 17 and 28 points and I’m not even so sure that Oklahoma State would beat a healthy Miami team.

Miami has faced a tougher schedule.  Their 19th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective played an average 51 YPP ranking and they finished 27th holding opponents 56.6 yards under their season average.  Meanwhile West Virginia’s defense also faced an average opponent ranking 51st in YPP and they finished 53rd in yards per play allowed.  On paper the offense for West Virginia is slightly better, but they faced a far weaker schedule and Miami’s offensive line was really banged up at times this year.

Keys to the game are going to start in the trenches and Miami just has massive advantages here.  They have 99 tackles for loss compared to just 52 for West Virginia’s defensive line.  I really think this is the best defense West Virginia has faced all year as they are 11th in front 7 havoc rate and I think Skyler Howard is going to be pressured into making mistakes.  On the flip side Miami has turned the ball over just 10 times all eyar behind an experienced QB in Kaaya who should have a balanced attack ahead of him.  Miami’s rushing offense has 5.97 ypc in wins and 2.04 in losses with 22 TD’s in the wins and 2 TD’s in the losses. 

West Virginia’s run defense is not exactly great.  We mentioned they were 52nd in tackles for loss.  Their front 7 havoc rate is 128th, but a lot of people are calling this a dominant defense which I don’t agree with.  Kansas who is ranked 113th in rushing ran for 150, and Iowa State ranked 69th ran for nearly 200 at a 5.59 ypc clip.  All 4 of their final opponents ran for over 4 yards per carry and that bodes well for Miami.  Miami’s run defense in case you were curious has been extremely dominant.  They have allowed only 8 rushing TD’s all year.  That’s going to be a huge issue because I certainly don’t trust Skyler Howard to win this game on his own.

Pittsburgh -4.5 3.3% play

I like Pitt here to win by double digits in this game.  This is another example of me liking the ACC over the Big Ten.  ACC is 4-1 this year against the Big Ten including Pitt’s win over Penn State.  Pitt has had a fabulous season when you consider they beat the ACC Champion and the Big Ten Champion.  That’s simply amazing and they played some close games against Oklahoma State, North Carolina all good teams.  When Northwestern stepped it up in competition they went 1-4.  Their only win against an Iowa team that has no offense and their 4 losses were by an average of 11 points per game.

Pittsburgh has an elite offense that can beat you with the pass and the running game behind leader John Conner.  Their QB Nathan Peterman is extremely explosive with 9 yards per attempt while throwing for 26 TD’s and only 6 interceptions.  Northwestern’s defense which ranks higher than Pitt has some vulnerabilities that fit well here.  They tend to wear down late in a game against physical teams (see Minnesota and Wisconsin), and they give up big plays.  Pitt is 22nd in the nation in explosiveness.

Northwestern’s QB Clayton Thorsown will have some success, but I think they will struggle in the red zone without much out of their running game.  Pitt is extremely stout up front and they have a considerable advantage in this game in the trenches.  Pitt’s sack leader Ejuan Price should play a big factor in this game and is the reason why they are +30 in sacks compared to -9 for Northwestern.  They are also +21 in tackles for loss compared to Northwestern so a huge advantage in the trenches.  Northwestern has not faced a team that can beat you with the pass and run and I would argue this is the best offense they have faced all year and I feel confidence they will lose this game big. 

Minnesota +10 5.5% POD

These are two contrasting styles in two contrasting conferences, but I like the Big Ten a little bit better.  They went 5-3 against the PAC 12 last year and 3-1 this year so far.  Minnesota is getting extra points here because of the suspensions and the fact that they are in the secondary, but I believe that has just given us value in the line.  This secondary still has 2 future NFL players in Damarius Travis and Jalen Myrick and I have to believe that MInnesota has some depth and the young players will be more excited to play and showcase their talent.

Minnesota will have to stop or slow down the air raid offense and I think they have the ingredients to do so.  Minnesota is 30th in sack %, and 14th in front 7 havoc rate.  They had +32 tackles for loss on the season compared with their offense and they are +19 in sacks while Washington State is -9 in sacks.  Washington State only faced 3 teams in the top 50 in sack % and they went 1-2 against those teams.  I believe Minnesota should be able to shorten this game as well with their offense. 

Washington State did a good job against the run all year and they will have another chance against Minnesota who is going to run the ball 60% of the time, but if they aren't careful I think they could get burned here for being over aggressive early in this game by stacking the box.  Mitch Leidner did not have a good season at QB for Minnesota, but he's a senior who has played in 3 bowl games and has played well in each of those games with 4 passing TD's to 1 interception.  I think Leidner will give his team a shot to win.  The running game should be able to control the offense with their size.  It's not every day that Washington State sees an offense like this and I think both defenses will struggle at times.  In the end I'll back Minnesota I think their head coach has done a fantastic job and the distractions of the suspensions have given us some extra line value here. 

Wake Forest +350 2.5% Play

I mentioned several times I was heavily leaning towards the ACC in bowl games.  I think the conference is really under rated this year.  Wake Forest has several things I like going into this bowl game, but the two key things to mention for both of these teams going into this game following the regular season.  Temple, loses their head coach Matt Rhule who left for Baylor. Their interim coach Ed Foley is not going to be the head coach so he’s not really preparing or coaching for anything here as Geoff Collins, the Florida defensive coordinator will take over.  On the other hand Wake Forest, we found out had their game plans leaked to opposing teams by their radio analyst.  This is their first game post – Wakeleaks.  Specifically in the Louisville game, a game they actually led 12-10 on the road going into the 4th quarter.

Wake Forest offense has struggled there is no doubt about it, but they faced 8 top 50 units this year and will face another one in Temple.  Thus the total for this game is very low at 40 points giving us more value for betting on the double digit dog who I feel can pull the upset.  Temple is the AAC Championship and I would think is not quite excited about a bowl game against one of the worst ACC teams in Wake Forest.  The AAC is 1-4 in bowl games so far and did not do well last year either going 2-6.

Wake Forest has the defense to shut down Temple.  In their wins they allowed 3 yards per carry and in their losses 4.84.  That’s the key to stopping Temple who has 5 ypc in wins and 2.44 in their 3 losses.  Wake Forest has held every team under 4 yards per carry this season with the exception of Clemson, Louisville who have the most dynamic QB’s in the country along with a random road game at NC State. Wake Forest ranks 18th in front 7 havoc rate and they are +8 in turnover margin on the year which is better than Temple.  Overall I believe they should be in this game with a shot to win at the end. 

Army -10 3.3% play

Army was 17.5 point favorite when these two met during the regular season and lost 35-18.  That gives us some value on the side of Army as a 10.5 point favorite.  North Texas has lost all of their games by 14 or more points this season and are lucky to be in a bowl game with a 5-7 record. 

So what went wrong in that game against North Texas for Army?  It was their sloppiest game in recent years.  They had 7 turnovers which included 4 interceptions.  That’s tough to do for a team that doesn’t throw the ball.  Army also committed 9 penalties in this game and I don’t see that happening again.  This Army team has a little time to prepare and will have revenge on their mind.  As long as they get up early in this game I see no reason why they shouldn’t run away with the game.

North Texas is terrible vs. the run allowing well over 5 yards per carry.  They allowed 9.60 yards per carry in their last game alone.  Army ran for 302 yards in the last meeting, but the turnovers killed drives.  Army’s defense is much better and I see them dominating this game even if it’s in Texas I think they will actually have a slight advantage in the stands.  Texas a big military state and they typically have a ton of Army fans at games when Army comes to town.

Army beat Texas El Paso on the road this year 66-14.  This is their final game of an emotional season where they beat Navy, and have been playing for a fallen teammate, Brandon Jackson.  Army is going to win this by 14+.

Vanderbilt +6 2.2% play

I think there is too much value here on Vanderbilt out of the SEC.  Despite the ACC dominating the SEC This year and I have praised the ACC this is one match up I don't think they should be almost a TD favorite in.  NC State got waxed last year against the SEC in the Belk Bowl and they are 3-6 vs. the SEC the last 3 years in post season play.

Vanderbilt really came on strong down the stretch, but overall they had been in a lot of games and they have several big wins on the season against bowl teams.  South Carolina, Western Kentucky, Georgia, and a hot Tennessee team.  Time off usually hurts a team, but I think they have found some confidence in the QB that they can ride.  Overall NC State seems to be stronger in the trenches, but Vanderbilt makes up for that having in my opinion the best linebacker in college football Zach Cunningham.

That has led to the #1 overall red zone defense.  NC State is just too inconsistent they don't run the ball as well as Vanderbilt does even though it will be an intriguing match up of running backs.  I'm predicting it's Kyle Shurmur who helps get a victory for his team.  Over the last 5 games this team was averaging +11 points per game and +187 yards per game compared to their first 7 games. 

Boston College +2.5 5.5% POD

First of all I look at the ACC, and I feel they are an under rated conference from top to bottom.  ACC is the most experienced conference of the power 5 going into the year, and I really think there are some solid teams throughout.  The Big Ten lost a lot of talent last year and were among the inexperienced teams and have a lot of bottom feeders.  ACC went 3-1 vs. the Big Ten.  Meanwhile comparing what the ACC did against the MAC, Sun Belt, Conference USA, and AAC they did better in 3 of the 4 conferences from a record and point differential perspective.

To me these are two similar offenses that have struggled this year.  Maryland was without their QB at times and that’s why they struggled a ton, but even with Perry Hillis this team when they step up in competition do not play well.  In fact they beat 1 bowl team all year long.  That was Central Florida out of the AAC.  Really they were lucky to win that game because they were +4 in turnover margin.  That was 40% of the turnovers Maryland forced all year.  Central Florida got waxed in their bowl as favorites against a Sun Belt team.  That win looks even worse.  Maryland will face a top 50 defense in Boston College here today and they are 1-6 this year against such foes.

Boston College plays in a tougher conference and when they weren’t playing the top teams in their conference they were in every game.  I really think they have an edge in the trenches and this is exactly the type of matchup they win.  Maryland on the other hand we saw them lost big at home against Minnesota 31-10.  Granted Minnesota’s offense is probably a little more capable, but they are very similar to Boston College in a lot of ways.  BC was +7 in tackles for loss with 92, and +16 in sacks with 39 led by Harold Landry.  Maryland was -16 and -8.  They allowed 94 tackles for loss and 41 sacks.  Boston College is one of the best run defenses in the nation ranking 11th in yards per carry allowed.  That does not bode well for Maryland who can’t protect their QB.  I just don’t see how Maryland can score enough points in this game.  Boston College is 9th in the nation holding opponents 95.6 yards under their season average.  Maryland comes in 105th which should help Boston’s offense.

BC should be able to have balance here with a running game and Patrick Towles connecting on short plays which gives me confidence backing them.  Towles and this passing offence in wins has 9TD to 2 INT’s with a QB rating 58 points higher than their losses.  Since Maryland only forced 6 turnovers outside the UCF game while BC has forced 23.  I give a strong edge towards BC winning the turnover battle as well.  BC also has the better special teams.  So let’s highlight.  BC should have the edge in the trenches, the turnover battle, and they play in a tougher conference and had a tougher schedule. 

MTSU -7 3.3% PLAY 

Middle Tennessee playing out of Conference USA which has dominated bowl games this season and seasons past.  Conference USA is 4-1 this bowl season with their only loss being an ATS cover as UTSA lost by just 3 at New Mexico.  I like MTSU and I'm not really worried about the travel spot and the warm weather.  I like what I am hearing from players and coaches referring to this game as a business trip.  They also went to the Bahamas Bowl game last year and lost so I am sure they learned something from that experience.  In the end I don't know that it matters, because Middle Tennessee has by far the best player on the field in Mississippi transfer I'Tavius Mathers who is an absolute beast and gives this offense a balanced dynamic.  Mathers 1504 yards rushing 16 TD's at a 6.84 ypc clip and he's also got nearly 600 yards receiving.

This MTSU team will get their QB back in Brent Stockstill who missed the last 3.5 games after he got hurt against UTSA and this team actually comes into this game with a little bit of value because they are so much better with him.  This team lost by 1 to Western Kentucky.  They beat Missouri, they beat Louisiana Tech, and they should have beaten Vanderbilt before a lengthy rain delay really hurt them.

Hawaii is not all bad to be perfectly honest this team will benefit from having the time off, but playing on Christmas Eve at home is not always the easiest.  I expect Hawaii to have some success but for Middle Tennessee to make adjustments and force this team into third and longs where they are not successful.  Expect big plays from Middle Tennessee's offense and a lot of points. Hawaii has played 6 top 50 offenses (MTSU IS 10TH) in yards per play and have allowed an average of 49.33 points per game.  That actually sets up a final score of 49-23 according to the total, but I expect more of a 45-31 final.  I see no reason to back Hawaii here and the play of Mathers and return of Stockstill accompanied by this team's experience playing the in a tropical location a year ago gives me a ton of confidence backing them. 

Troy/Ohio Under 50 2.2% play 

Dollar General Bowl will be played in Mobile Alabama.  Small edge to Troy, but that’s incorporated in the spread for this game.  I actually feel confident in the under in this game.  Both teams are led by their defense and are top 30 in yards per play allowed.  Ohio has faced slightly stronger offenses than Troy on the year, but overall I would say both defenses are excellent and they are both going up against offenses that don’t have big play capability.  Troy 75th in big play offense while Ohio is 103rd.  Both defenses will create third and longs and are very strong in the red zone.

Troy’s run defense allowing just 3.44 ypc, while Ohio run defense allowing 2.96 ypc.  Troy has a net of 28 tackles for loss and +20 sacks while Ohio has +19 tackles for loss and +26 sacks.  Both defenses holding opponents under their season average in yards, Ohio ranking 42nd, and Troy 47th.  Ohio did not play a lot of strong defenses this year and hwen they did they averaged 15.5 points.  Meanwhile Troy who faced 4 top 30 defenses averaged 21.5.  I give the coaching edge to Frank Solich who has been around a long time and usually plays his best games as a dog.  Ohio’s defense held Tennessee and Western Michigan to some of their season lows in points.  They are a bend but not break defense allowing just 45% touch down rate.

The under is 35-16-2 in Ohio’s last 53 games overall and the under is 6-2-1 in Troy’s last 9 games overall.  Now these two conferences traditionally play high scoring games, but I think we are getting some value on the total because of it.  Troy also played at Ladd-Peebles Stadium already this season against South Alabama a defense ranked 71st in yards per play allowed.  They ended up scoring 28 points, but had only 13 points entering the 4th quarter. Ohio seems to have a weakness against the pass, but they also seem to step up against the high quality opponents like Western Mich, Tennessess, Miami Ohio, and Toledo keeping all 4 of those teams below their season average for points (average of 10points below) and they played well enough defensively against the pass to be in each of those games. I’ll predict a final score of 24-17.

LA Tech -6.5 2.2% / Over 67.5 4.4% POD

Navy, has one of their worst defenses in a long time.  They rank 109th in yards per play allowed.  Meanwhile LA Tech comes in at 56th and has strengths on the run defense.  Navy of course breaking in a new QB and while I think he’s not as bad as this line movement we have seen I do think LA Tech’s offense is going to have too much punch in this game because they can do it in the air and on the ground.

Navy’s QB Zach Abey will be just fine and he actually settled into the Army game where he led them back in the second half despite all the mistakes they made.  I actually think Abey is a better runner than Will Worth and it shows in the short term, but overall Navy is going to have a hard time keeping pace in this one with one of the best offenses in the nation.  Ryan Higgins has 37 passing TD’s to just 8 interceptions and this offense is very explosive and Navy is 105th in the nation in explosive plays allowed.  Another thing to like about the total is neither team is good in the red zone allowing over 70% TD rates.  Navy has big #’s with 91.3% TD rate allowed over their last 4 games.  Now they face one of the best offenses in the nation with limited preparation time having to play in the AAC Championship, then the Arm/Navy game.  

LA Tech -6.5 2.2% / Over 67.5 4.4% POD

Navy, has one of their worst defenses in a long time.  They rank 109th in yards per play allowed.  Meanwhile LA Tech comes in at 56th and has strengths on the run defense.  Navy of course breaking in a new QB and while I think he’s not as bad as this line movement we have seen I do think LA Tech’s offense is going to have too much punch in this game because they can do it in the air and on the ground.

Navy’s QB Zach Abey will be just fine and he actually settled into the Army game where he led them back in the second half despite all the mistakes they made.  I actually think Abey is a better runner than Will Worth and it shows in the short term, but overall Navy is going to have a hard time keeping pace in this one with one of the best offenses in the nation.  Ryan Higgins has 37 passing TD’s to just 8 interceptions and this offense is very explosive and Navy is 105th in the nation in explosive plays allowed.  Another thing to like about the total is neither team is good in the red zone allowing over 70% TD rates.  Navy has big #’s with 91.3% TD rate allowed over their last 4 games.  Now they face one of the best offenses in the nation with limited preparation time having to play in the AAC Championship, then the Arm/Navy game.  

Wyoming +10 3.3% play

I like the dog here as Wyoming had a fantastic season and it could go down as their best ever with a win over BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl.  This is an old rivalry from the time these teams shared the WAC and Mountain West together.

Wyoming has a very good QB in Josh Allen and a tremendous RB in Brian Hill who will be playing on Sunday’s.  Allen can make mistakes which is a concern in this game, but he can also make plays with his feet and strong arm that should keep his team in the game.

BYU meanwhile is without their senior leader Tasom Hill who ended the year with another injury.  Tanner Mangum is a better passer than Hill so that could open things up a bit, but I see them starting conservative.  He started last year’s bowl game off with two pick sixes.  BYU has lost their last 3 bowl games and have been off for quite a while.  Meanwhile Wyoming played in meaningful football against San Diego State just two weeks ago.

BYU is a huge favorite mostly because of their schedule with opponents in the Big 10, Pac 12, Big 12, but when you really look at it BYU got lucky this year.  Only 5 bowl opponents and they went 2-3 against those.  Both wins were at home by 2 and 7 points and one was against a 5-7 Mississippi State team that is in a bowl game.  All the other opponents were a disappointment.  Wyoming faced 9 bowl opponents and really were in every game.  I think their run defense struggled down the stretch which is to be expected, but I think they have regrouped with a little extra time off and they will have their hands full against Jamal Williams.

At the end of the day I think Wyoming can actually win the turnover battle.  Both teams have turned the ball over this year, but we have seen it in the past with Mangum and Wyoming has forced 25 turnovers on the year.  This is a lot of points for a bowl game and Wyoming has to be excited to be here after winning two games last year.  They beat Boise State, BYU lost to Boise if that makes you feel confident about Wyoming’s chances in this game tonight. 

Western Kentucky -6.5 3.3% play 

I like the Hilltoppers in what should be a very high scoring and exciting game here tonight.  This one is taking place in Florida and should be high scoring.  WK's head coach Jeff Brohm moved onto Purdue, but I don't see it impacting this team like Houston's move with Tom Herman.  A defensive coordinator takes over in the interim and I expect Western Kentucky to try to control this game on the ground with their senior stud Anthony Wales.  Western Kentucky also has the better QB in Mike White who was lucky enough to be throwing to two future NFL receivers in Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris. 

The fact is these teams are very similar in a lot of ways.  Both have top 10 special teams, both have top 30 offenses, and two top 25 QB's.  Western Kentucky however seems to be able to control the trenches better as they are +28 tackles for loss on the season compared to Memphis who is -20. They are +13 sacks on the season compared to Memphis who is -13.  That's a huge advantage and Western Kentucky holding opponents to nearly 3 yards per carry can force Memphis into some long third down plays.  Memphis is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry and have to go up against a better running team.

Memphis can claim the better passing defense, but there were 4 games this season where they faced a high rated passing attack and they gave up 44, 49, 48, and 59 points. Memphis has a shot if they are +2 or +3 TO's in this one, but Mike White has just 6 interceptions all year.  As I mentioned he's throwing to two future NFL receivers, and a senior RB in Wales who wants to go out and get this team to 11 wins.  I predict they will. 

Central Michigan +14 2.2% play

The American Athletic has not been very good in bowl games going 6-14 which includes 0-2 this year with Houston and Central Florida not even coming close.  I’d like to follow that trend with Tulsa being a huge favorite.  Once I saw them tick up to 14 points I grabbed Central Michigan.

The Chippewas aren’t getting a lot of credit here despite having a win over a top 15 program this year.  Albeit being a bit controversial they still went to Oklahoma State and won as huge under dogs and held that team to 50 rushing yards which will be a key for them against Tulsa’s offense.  The other thing about Central Michigan is they have been devastated by injuries all year long and this is probably the healthiest they have been in quite some time which should help. I like the fact that Central Michigan is led by a senior QB in Cooper Rush who has played well in bowl games before and is the active leader in passing yards in the nation.  I expect him to have a great game against a defense that gives up a lot of yards.

Tulsa really has not beaten anyone and their defense is a reliability. Central Michigan also has only given up 14 rushing TDs and can be tough to score on in the red zone.  I do expect this game to be close.  Tulsa is getting a lot of love for their offense, but I would lean towards Central Michigan’s defense and they have a QB that can score quickly and score late for a potential upset or back door cover.  Central Michigan is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference match ups and I expect them to be competitive here in Miami. 

Lafayette/Southern Miss Over 58.5 points 2.2% play

I like the over here you have a Lafayette team playing in their home state in the New Orleans Bowl.  They have struggled this year and their offense has struggled, but going up against a bad defense in Southern Miss I think they should be able to run the ball a bit and when they are able to do that they typically put up 27 or 30 points.  Meanwhile Southern Miss offensively can’t be stopped and Lafayette really has not played a ton of good offenses this year.  Southern Miss had a few games without Nick Mullens their senior QB so I expect them to put up 35 points or more in this game.  Perfect weather being that this game is in a dome and I love that you have 2 senior QB’s going at it.  Anthony Jennings on Lafayette side is a Louisiana kid played at LSU for a couple years. 

Houston -4 2.2% play

I like Houston in this matchup despite losing their head coach.  Houston has named Todd Orlando their new coach and he was previously the defensive coordinator.  That’s good news considering Houston was a defensive team led by their 5 star defensive lineman Ed Oliver.  This game should be the most interesting on Saturday, and I really like Houston to win this by double digits.

First of all San Diego State was held under 200 yards rushing this year 4 times and went 1-3.  Donnel Pumphrey has a ton of pressure to break Ron Dayne’s rushing record and I don’t see him doing it against Houston’s run defense.  Houston has allowed just one opponent over 200 yards rushing all year and that was Navy who runs the triple option.  Houston does not have to worry about a passing game as San Diego State is entirely one dimensional.  Looking back further since Donnel Pumphrey arrived back in 2013, San Diego State has gone 7-17 when rushing for fewer than 200 yards. 

Houston has also had a much tougher schedule with Louisville and Oklahoma in non-conference play two teams they beat easily.  I see them being up for this game with their new coach already focused and without the interim tag.  San Diego State is a nice team, but the Mountain West was down this year and this team just doesn’t do well out of conference play going 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 tries.  Meanwhile Houston has gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21.  If Houston does not cover it’s because they turn the ball over, but I expect Greg Ward Jr. in his final game to put up some big numbers.  After all San Diego State has allowed a ton of points of late, 40.33 over their last 3 per game.

UTSA +7.5 4.4% POD

This is essentially a home game for New Mexico, but I like the match up and think Texas San Antonio out of Conference USA is a solid bet when you look at the situation and they are going to be very excited to be playing in their first bowl game.  New Mexico is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Conference USA and even though the Mountain West has a 33-25 record vs. Conference USA that gap has really closed with a 12-12 record since 2010.  Take out Boise State’s games and they are 12-9 vs. the Mountain West.

Texas San Antonio clearly had the stronger schedule this year as they faced Texas A&M and Arizona State out of conference while New Mexico faced Rutgers.  It doesn’t stop there though as UTSA faced 7 teams with top 50 yards per play offenses or defenses compared to 4 top 50 YPP opponents for New Mexico.  New Mexico’s defense is huge concern ranked 108th in yards per play defense and they have faced opponents with weak offenses all year.  An average 71 ypp opponent.  Over their last 4 games their rushing defense has really struggled allowing over 6 yards per carry and 13 rushing yards.  I think they will give up some points in this one.  Considering UTSA average 4.67 ypc in their wins vs. 2.91 in their losses that will be the key in this game.

New Mexico’s pass defense however also not the strongest and UTSA’s passing attack is capable with 24 TD’s and only 7 interceptions.  The match up I like the best is the fact that UTSA defensive strength is against the run.  Their 68th ranking from a YPP perspective does not blow you away, but they have faced many top offenses this year, 5 in the top 50 and 3 in the top 25 + Texas A&M.  They’ll face New Mexico and that option attack, but this run stop unit has some extra time to prepare and it’s easy to predict what New Mexico will do.

I like the advantage UTSA has in red zone defense which will be a key in a close game.  I feel like the Road Runners will have a shot to pull the upset on the road and getting 7.5 points I’m confident.  Conference USA has been really strong in bowl the last 5 years really going 18-8.  Meanwhile the Mountain West has struggled a bit going 13-18.

Army +225 5.5% NCAAF POD

It's finally time for Army to win this game.  This is there best shot for a few different reasons.  The last two years they have come close and have had chance to win, but this year I think they finally get it done.

Navy was busy playing in a conference championship last week.  Something they have never had to do the week before the Army Navy game.  They lost the game to Temple as I played Temple on the money line.  Not only did they lose, but the loss was very costly.  They lose their QB Will Worth who is out for the season.  Worth took over for Tago Smith and was a senior.  Now Navy turns to a sophomore in Zach Abey.  That can't be good for a team that is used to having experience. 

Meanwhile Army has been licking their chops for this game.  This is Army's best team in probably 20 years.  This is a team that beat Temple 28-13 in the beginning of the year. Since 2011 Army has been -9 in turnover margin in the Navy/Army game and it has cost them winning the game at least two times as singificant under dogs.  I think they can win the turnover battle in this one with an experienced QB on Navy side and under a week to prepare it's just too much to ask for.  Navy also not forcing nearly as many turnovers as they have in years past as they have only had 13 this year (27 last year).  Their run defense giving up 4.77 yards per carry on the season compared to 3.88 for Army.  Army held them under 200 yards last year and I think they will be even better this year.

Penn State +3.5 -115 5% NCAAF POD – buy ½ if need be.

There are several questions in this game for Penn State, but it all comes down to their ability to stop Wisconsin’s running game in my opinion.  That’s something they have done extremely well since they got healthy at linebacker.  Wisconsin really does not pose a threat in the passing game with their 2 QB system so it’s all on their running game and defense and I like the match up for Penn State here.  Since Jason Cabinda, Penn State’s linebacker came back this has been a shutdown defense.  In their last 5 games they have held opponents under 2.70 yards per carry 3 of which they held under 2 yards per carry.  We all know when Wisconsin can’t run the ball they struggle to win games.

Penn State simply cannot turn the ball over in this game and they are +9 in turnover margin in their last 8 games.  That’s the biggest story of this game.  If they do not turn the ball over they win this game.  I really like what McSorley has done at QB for Penn State.  He has the ability and skilled receivers to test Wisconsin’s defense deep which in reality opens up the running game a little bit even against Wisconsin.  Mcsorley also can use his feet to pick up third downs which is an area of weakness for Wisconsin at least in their game against Ohio State and in the red zone against Nebraska. 

Penn State has to get off the field on third down to keep their defense fresh in this game.  I see a field goal game either way and I love the edge Penn State has in special teams compared to Wisconsin who have struggled at times and rank 69th in special teams.  This is also the best offense that Wisconsin has faced all year as Penn State actually ranks 22nd in yards per play compared to 40th for Ohio State.  I just love the momentum this team has right now and the defense has enough veteran leadership to keep the game close and I like the edge Penn State has at QB with McSorley. 

Virginia Tech +10.5 3.3% play

Clemson has had many close games this year.  All of them have something in common.  They struggled to run the ball with less than 4 yards per carry in all 5 close games decided by a TD or less.  Pittsburgh, Florida State, NC State, Troy, and Auburn.  Virginia Tech has a solid defense overall they are very balanced and have the opportunity to stop an average rushing offense.

That’s not the only reason I’m leaning towards the Hokies today.  Clemson has given up a ton of points to teams who can pass the ball.  Virginia Tech ranks 13th in QB rating and 36th in passing yards behind the excellent play of an experience QB in Jerrod Evans.  Three other games vs. a team that can pass the ball like Virginia Tech and this Clemson defense gave up 43, 34, and 36 points.  So I think this should be a relatively high scoring game that will be in doubt in the third quarter.  I think Virginia Tech could pull a shocker as Clemson has a ton of pressure in this game.  If you remember last year they struggled with North Carolina.  I think Virginia Tech is a big wild card in this game because they do everything well including special teams.  As long as they are not turning the ball over they could win this game.  In their loss against Tennessee earlier in the year they were -4 TO margin and I thought they should have won that game.  They were -3 against Georgia Tech and -1 vs. Syracuse.  That’s the one thing Clemson has also struggled with is the turnovers as they have had 23 turnovers on the year 1 more than Virginia Tech whose struggles have mostly been on fumbles and bad luck recovering them.

San Diego State / Wyoming Under 59.5 3.3% play

I like San Diego State and Wyoming to go under the total here.  First of all it’s 6.5 points nearly a TD higher than their first meeting and we have much worse weather this time around with temperatures in the teens and 15-30 mph winds.  I don’t see any of these two teams doing anything crazy and expect San Diego State to really try to shorten this game as they had just 54 plays last time around 3 weeks ago.

So the last time these two met it was a 34-33 victory for Wyoming.  I think QB Josh Allen was a huge part of that for Wyoming.  I expect San Diego State to make adjustments to contain Allen who broke off for 56 yards rushing and 288 yards passing on just 15 completions.  He was elusive and that’s something San Diego State can game plan for.  San Diego State’s offense won’t see any major changes in this one as I mentioned and their head coach even hinted at it as well stating, “If you have a lot of wind, it really increases the difficulty of the game, and makes it more likely of mistakes.”  This is a team that does not turn the ball over and won’t put their team in that position.

Lastly, these two teams have enjoyed very high scores the last few weeks which gives us value on the under in a conference championship game.  Tremendous value on the under here in this game as I expect San Diego State to win and cover with the under. 

Temple +130 3.5% play 

Navy is getting an overwhelming majority of the action right now based on what they have done their last two games putting up 66 points and 75 points.  They played two of the nation's worst defenses in SMU & East Carolina with nothing to play for now they step up to play the #7 defense from a yards per play perspective and they are #5 holding opponents on the season over 130 yards below their season average.  It's also worth noting that this is the 3rd time Temple is seeing the option attack.  Everyone will point to how they struggled against Army to open the season, but that was a long time ago and this defense was breaking in a lot of new guys. 

To stop Navy's offense you must create negative plays and who is better than Temple at doing so.  They rank #4 in front 7 havoc rate and have 95 tackles for loss led by Haason Reddick with 21.5 at DL.  This defense gave up 0 rushing TD's over their last 4 games and held Tulane to 118.  They have also held all 5 opponents they have faced on the road under their season PPG average.  I don't expect Temple to completely slow down a hot Navy squad, but  They are very good in the red zone and on third down on defense overall and even better on the road.  Everyone is talking about Navy's offense, but Navy's defense ranked 114th in yards per play allowed are going to have their hands full. 

Temple's offense has plenty of weapons and PJ Walker is an experienced QB who gets big plays as he's averaging 8.4 yards per attempt which is actually good for 15th in the county while Navy has allowed 23 TD's to 6 interceptions and 8.7 yards per pass attempts which ranks 120th in the county.  Not much Navy can do here considering Temple likes to run the ball first and use play action.  Navy struggles in run defense allowing 5 yards per carry in conference play.  Temple 4.98 ypc in their wins and 2.44 in their losses have two guys in the backfield in Thomas and Armstead to lead the way for a balanced attack.  At the end of the day both offenses should put up similar #'s and it's Temple's defense that is considerably better that I'm betting on here. 

Colorado +8 4.4% NCAAF POD

Statistically these two teams are pretty even, but Colorado has no doubt had a more challenging schedule in conference and out of conference.  Let’s start in conference play where their two most challenging games were @Stanford and @USC.  Washington got both of those games at home and also went 1-1.  In non-conference play Colorado played Colorado State #69 on neutral field, @Michigan #5 while Washington played Idaho #104, and Rutgers #112 at home.  That will certainly change the statistics a little bit and Colorado is right there in total yards, total passing and rushing yards and yards allowed.  There really is not much separating these two teams.  So let’s look at the match up.

Colorado is a blitz happy team ranking 19th in sack %.  Washington’s QB Jake Browning really is the story, but he had one atrocious game against USC, who has 50% of their sacks in the last 4 games as their defensive line really came alive down the stretch due to their line getting more action.  The only other team that Washington played with a solid front seven was Utah and Utah definitely gave them fits in their 31-24 victory.  Colorado is a better version of Utah and their secondary has two NFL Draft picks in Tedric Thompson and Chidobe Awuzie which should really frustrate Jake Browning who I think will make a mistake.  After all he is only a sophomore, and this is the #1 DB havoc rate in the country that he has to face.  Defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt has been the main reason Colorado has been resurgent and has forced a turnover in 25 straight games.

Colorado’s offense is also very under the radar in this match up and I think they will take it personally.  Having a senior QB in Sefo Liufau who can also run the ball is a huge advantage here.  This team had Michigan on the ropse before Liufau had to leave that game.  There is evidence that Washington will struggle against a team with a running QB.  They gave up 24 points to Utah with Troy Williams rushing for 30 yards on only 9 carries and Arizona scored 28 points with Brandon Dawkins rushing for 2 TD’s and 176 yards.  I think that’s going to be the story in this game is how Liufau plays and how Colorado’s defense can impact Browning.  I like both match ups for Colorado and obviously the last time Washington was in the top 4 they could not handle the pressure.

Much more pressure on Washington here and they need a win and I don’t know that they get it here. 

Ohio +18 2.2% play 

This is a ton of points when you consider that Ohio may just be the best defense that Western Michigan has faced all year.  Ohio’s defense is legit especially up front where they rank 6th in the country in havoc rate with 40 sacks and 90 total tackles for loss.  Western Michigan is facing a defense that can stop the run ranking #2 in yards per carry allowed and a defense that has held their last 9 opponents under their season points per game average.

Ohio will not be a sexy pick on Friday night, because of their last two games losing to Central Michigan and beating Akron 9-3, but they should get their senior QB back, and I like their ability to run the ball in this game and slow this game down.  In fact both teams like to run over 55% of the time and Ohio just matches up a little better in the trenches.  Don’t forget Ohio went on the road held Toledo to a season low in points and rushing yards in a victory as a 15 point favorite.  While Western Michigan dominated Toledo on the scoreboard last week it was much closer and Toledo ran all over Western Michigan for more than 7 yards per carry. 

Lastly, you have to factor in the intangible of pressure.  There is a ton of pressure on Western Michigan to win this game and get into the Cotton Bowl.  Also is PJ Fleck staying or is he going to jump to the Oregon job or another job?  Those are also big question marks that can be distractions.  At the end of the day we have seen how teams have done as big favorites in pressure spots and it has not been a winning formula ATS.

California +146 2.5% play –

This matchup is pretty even and when you look at it I have to question why UCLA is favored.  I typically lean towards the defense, but California is at home here and UCLA is off their big rivalry game against USC.  Both teams like to pass the ball a ton and it’s not a surprise that California does it much better and UCLA defends the pass much better, but UCLA is 0-3 vs. the 3 top 50 passing teams they faced.  California is not terrible running the ball like UCLA so that should benefit California here quite a bit who have had a brutal schedule against top running teams.  Now they face UCLA who is 127th in rushing the ball and their QB Fafaul has 11 TD’s to 10 interceptions in conference play.  Cal won’t have to score much in this game to get the win.

I think there is tremendous value on Cal here when you take a look at who they just got done playing.  Over their last 4 games they played 4 of the top 5 teams in the PAC 12 in USC, Washington, Washington State, and Stanford.  They beat Utah earlier in the year at home and also beat Oregon and Texas.  UCLA does not have any big wins like that on their schedule.

Finally, the biggest difference in this game is UCLA turns the ball over.  23 times all year with 13 in 5 road games.  California on the other hand have just 4 turnovers all season at home.  In a game that could be close I expect the turnover to give Cal a big win! 

Ohio State +1 with Michigan State +17.5 3.3% teaser

Ohio State +1 / Teaser

There are not many games where you could say Jim Harbough is not the best coach.  Urban Meyer arguably the best coach in the nation and I like the fact that he’s at home here and there is good weather on the way with no wind which has me leaning towards the over.  Meyer seems to get a little more aggressive with JT Barret when the weather is good and he naturally always has a good passing team.  I think Ohio State comes out aggressive in this game and they have the better players and are at home.  Meyer always a good big game head coach in college and it’s been well documented.  Meanwhile Harbough has come up short many times throughout his coaching career.  That’s not to say it can change, but I don’t see it changing in this situation. 

Overall these teams are very even on both sides of the ball in running, and passing and playing defense against both, but there are 3 things I like in Ohio State’s favor here and they are 3 big differences.  Coaching, QB, and home field advantage.  Those three will be the key and the difference in Ohio State winning this game big and possibly by double digits. 

Michigan State +17.5

All of the pressure is on Penn State here, and this is Michigan State’s bowl game.  They have been playing much better of late and have stepped up in the big games.  The defense is still not what it once was, but they are healthier than the past and they are led by Riley Bullough who should have his team pumpe dup to play Penn State.  Penn State has more injuries on the offensive line, and a banged up Saquon Barkley.  This is an inflated line in my opinion and Michigan State is 15-2 ATS as a dog over their last 17, which includes a 3-0 ATS mark this year.  I’m taking some extra points in this one althought I just think Penn State comes out super tight after they realize Ohio State wins and they have a shot to get to the Big Ten title game. 

Kentucky +26 4.4% NCAAF POD

This Kentucky offense is playing extremely well right now and that’s because their head coach is finally playing to the team’s strengths which are running the ball.  Last year they only ran the ball 50% of the time, and this year they are at 63% which has resulted in a lethal duo combination at RB and two 1,000 yard rushers.  I think they will have success here against Louisville who is in a major flat spot after their college football playoff dreams have been crushed.

Louisville also has played 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense, Florida State.  So their run defense in my opinion is very misleading.  Kentucky has never been this big of an underdog in this rivalry game and I think the game will be much closer.  Kentucky also remembers being up 24-7 at the half last year and blowing that game so do not be surprised if we see them with a shot to win this game late. 

Ohio State +1 with Michigan State +17.5 3.3% teaser

Ohio State +1 / Teaser

There are not many games where you could say Jim Harbough is not the best coach.  Urban Meyer arguably the best coach in the nation and I like the fact that he’s at home here and there is good weather on the way with no wind which has me leaning towards the over.  Meyer seems to get a little more aggressive with JT Barret when the weather is good and he naturally always has a good passing team.  I think Ohio State comes out aggressive in this game and they have the better players and are at home.  Meyer always a good big game head coach in college and it’s been well documented.  Meanwhile Harbough has come up short many times throughout his coaching career.  That’s not to say it can change, but I don’t see it changing in this situation. 

Overall these teams are very even on both sides of the ball in running, and passing and playing defense against both, but there are 3 things I like in Ohio State’s favor here and they are 3 big differences.  Coaching, QB, and home field advantage.  Those three will be the key and the difference in Ohio State winning this game big and possibly by double digits. 

Michigan State +17.5

All of the pressure is on Penn State here, and this is Michigan State’s bowl game.  They have been playing much better of late and have stepped up in the big games.  The defense is still not what it once was, but they are healthier than the past and they are led by Riley Bullough who should have his team pumpe dup to play Penn State.  Penn State has more injuries on the offensive line, and a banged up Saquon Barkley.  This is an inflated line in my opinion and Michigan State is 15-2 ATS as a dog over their last 17, which includes a 3-0 ATS mark this year.  I’m taking some extra points in this one althought I just think Penn State comes out super tight after they realize Ohio State wins and they have a shot to get to the Big Ten title game. 

Toledo +8.5 3.3% play / Toledo +290 1% play

I think there is a ton of value here with Toledo when you look at their offense and you look at what Western Michigan has faced this year.  Toledo has a balanced offense with a ton of weapons.  Western Michigan also has a ton of pressure on them and finally an opponent that is good enough to upset them here.  If Toledo was at home and not on a short week I would be calling for the upset, but instead I’m just going to call for the win. Toledo’s QB, Logan Woodside has been arguably the best QB in the nation with 40 TD passes to just 7 interceptions 70% completion rate, 9.9 yards per attempt.  Western Michigan obviously an impressive offense, but Toledo’s defense is a little better in my opinion and they have faced a tougher schedule.  Western Michigan has also really relied on winning the turnover margin at +15 this year they have not lost it in a single game.  Toledo has just 11 turnovers overall which should keep them in this game.

Iowa -1.5 2.2% play

I like Iowa in this spot at home where they have played very well of late.  Nebraska has all the pressure in the world with a shot to get to the Big Ten title game, but I don't see it happening.  Tommy Armstrong is not 100%, but he will make the start and a hamstring injury really hinders a dynamic running QB in a lot of ways.  Even if he is 100% at the start the risk for re-injury is very high.  If he does not injure it again I expect him to struggle either way as his home away splits are completely different.  He's got a QB ratings of more than 50 points higher at home, and he's 16% more accurate at home.  On the road he's got 2 TD's to 5 interceptions and that's where I think Iowa wins this game.

Last year they were happy to force Nebraska into obvious passing downs and drop guys in coverage which led to 4 interceptions.  Now Nebraska has cleaned up the turnover issues from a year ago, but they still average 2 per game on the road and Iowa has lost just 3 turnovers in 6 games at home.  I'm confident to say that they should win the TO battle and that flips things to the running game for both teams, because none of this matters if a team is not able to run and stop the run. 

Actually looking at everything Iowa should have the better chance to establish the running game.  For one they are at home, and they have two running backs in Akrum Wadley and Leshun Daniels who are getting better as the year progresses behind a very good offensive line.  Overall the statistical numbers for both teams running the ball and stopping the run are similar, but here is what the difference will be.  Nebraska has allowed 4.83 yards per carry on the road.  Their running game relies heavily on Tommy Armstrong running the ball.  He has approximately 25% of the runs this year and 8 TD's more than #1 RB Terrel Newby.  Second, their next RB back up is Devine Ozigbo and he's questionable for this game.  I look for the Hawkeyes to squeak out of this game with a TD victory. 

Texas -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

We know we are going to get Texas players best efforts and when that happens they usually exceed Vegas expectations.  Charlie Strong likely let go after this game, but the players are not too happy.  This is as big of a win one for the gipper situation that I remember seeing in a while.  Here are some player quotes:

“Letting this man go is equivalent to losing a Father.  He has done wonders for all the players on the team and we want him to continue that.”

“The main reason we came to UT was because of Coach Strong’s plan for us to succeed and become a better man, now y’all take him away.”

TCU, has had highs and lows this season, but have dramatically underperformed this year.  Gary Patterson, just suffered his biggest loss at home in 13 years, he also went 0-2 ATS off byes this year he had been 13-0 ATS over his previous 13 so a lot going wrong for this team.  Look I simply can’t trust Kenny Hill at QB for TCU, and their passing defense is a major issue which is something QB Shane Buechele and Texas are capable of taking advantage of in this offense.  Texas has a very balanced offense and they should put up a ton of points in this one at least 40 in my opinion.

Air Force +8.5 2.2%play

Boise State is not nearly as dominating as their record looks at 10-1.  Really they have been lucky catching Oregon State and Washington State at the right time and even BYU whom they beat by 1 point were very lucky as BYU played without their best player in running back Jamaal Williams.  This Boise team has lost 7 games on the road since 2013 and I just don’t buy into Bryan Harsin as a good coach.  Air Force has beaten him the last two seasons, and now Boise State goes on the road to face this triple option again without two of their starting linebackers and they have already struggled to stop the run 4.46 ypc on the season and 5.33 ypc in conference play.  That’s just unheard of.  On the flip side Air Force still very under rated at stopping the run and that’s what Boise State relies on most with McNichols.  Air Force may give up a ton of rushing yards in this game, but to lose by double digits the way they play and convert on third downs, 60% at home on the season.  I just think Air Force is well coached, and Boise State’s coaching staff is over rated.  Brett Rypien for instance seems to have digressed he had 109 yards passing 10-20 completion against UNLV last week who have given up 22 passing TD’s to just 5 interceptions on the season.  Air Force should win the turnover margin here which will be enough to put them in position to win this game outright. 

Arkansas -1.5 with LSU -1 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

Arkansas -1.5

I like the Razorbacks to win this one and do so easily.  Missouri is very bad against the run giving up 300 yards rushing 4 times already this season and 5.85 yards per carry in conference play.  Now they face an Arkansas offense that honestly is one of the best in the conference.  Arkansas can beat you in the passing game, and now their running game is coming alive behind the legs of Rawleigh Williams III.  Brett Bielama calls Williams his best RB recruit ever and the sophomore is starting to live up to the hype.  One thing to look at is the fact that Arkansas 4 losses came when they rushed for 120, 73, 25, and 81 yards.  Those were all against top 50 rushing defense sand Missouri really has not stopped the run all year as we previously mentioned.

Arkansas defense is a concern, but I think they get a couple of breaks here.  For one they struggled against the run again last week, but Miss State’s dual threat QB Nick Fitzgerald had more than half the rushing yards with 131.  Drew Lock here is not that type of QB, and he is without his top RB in Crocket who has rushed for 1,000 yards and 10 TD’s.  Crocket is suspended for this game.  Missouri also not going to a bowl game here and although we have heard some trash talk overall I think Arkansas has this game covered.  Their coaching staff also has a massive advantage with Dan Enos as the OC, and Brett Bielma while Barry Odom seems over his head as a head coach.  Odom the previous defensive coordinator has seen his defense go from one of the best defenses to one of the worst in the country.  On top of it all Arkansas one of the toughest schedules in the country.  If they were playing in the other SEC Division, the one Missouri plays in they’d be heading to the SEC Championship.

LSU -1 

Texas A&M’s defense has seriously struggled since Trevor Knight was lost as their backup QB Hubenak has been just pretty awful and has not faced a team worth noting on defense. He’s not a guy that can break down a defense with his legs like Knight could which added another dynamic to this offense.

Texas A&M’s defense has been very good, but their strength is really vs. the pass with their pass rush.  They struggle against power rushing teams giving up 278 to Alabama, and 365 to Miss State, and Tennessee and Auburn also gained 200+ yards.  I think LSU can live on the ground in this game and just play solid defense to get the win. Texas A&M has allowed 29, 35, 33, and 38 points in their last 4 SEC games and if LSU exceeds that and I think they will they should cruise to a double digit victory here on Thanksgiving night! 

Arkansas -1.5 with LSU -1 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

Arkansas -1.5

I like the Razorbacks to win this one and do so easily.  Missouri is very bad against the run giving up 300 yards rushing 4 times already this season and 5.85 yards per carry in conference play.  Now they face an Arkansas offense that honestly is one of the best in the conference.  Arkansas can beat you in the passing game, and now their running game is coming alive behind the legs of Rawleigh Williams III.  Brett Bielama calls Williams his best RB recruit ever and the sophomore is starting to live up to the hype.  One thing to look at is the fact that Arkansas 4 losses came when they rushed for 120, 73, 25, and 81 yards.  Those were all against top 50 rushing defense sand Missouri really has not stopped the run all year as we previously mentioned.

Arkansas defense is a concern, but I think they get a couple of breaks here.  For one they struggled against the run again last week, but Miss State’s dual threat QB Nick Fitzgerald had more than half the rushing yards with 131.  Drew Lock here is not that type of QB, and he is without his top RB in Crocket who has rushed for 1,000 yards and 10 TD’s.  Crocket is suspended for this game.  Missouri also not going to a bowl game here and although we have heard some trash talk overall I think Arkansas has this game covered.  Their coaching staff also has a massive advantage with Dan Enos as the OC, and Brett Bielma while Barry Odom seems over his head as a head coach.  Odom the previous defensive coordinator has seen his defense go from one of the best defenses to one of the worst in the country.  On top of it all Arkansas one of the toughest schedules in the country.  If they were playing in the other SEC Division, the one Missouri plays in they’d be heading to the SEC Championship.

LSU -1 

Texas A&M’s defense has seriously struggled since Trevor Knight was lost as their backup QB Hubenak has been just pretty awful and has not faced a team worth noting on defense. He’s not a guy that can break down a defense with his legs like Knight could which added another dynamic to this offense.

Texas A&M’s defense has been very good, but their strength is really vs. the pass with their pass rush.  They struggle against power rushing teams giving up 278 to Alabama, and 365 to Miss State, and Tennessee and Auburn also gained 200+ yards.  I think LSU can live on the ground in this game and just play solid defense to get the win. Texas A&M has allowed 29, 35, 33, and 38 points in their last 4 SEC games and if LSU exceeds that and I think they will they should cruise to a double digit victory here on Thanksgiving night! 

UCLA +18.5 / FLORIDA +20.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

UCLA +18.5

USC in a major let down spot with Notre Dame on deck.  USC really has not been able to blow out teams with good defenses.  UCLA ranked 11th in yards per play allowed and are even better vs. the pass.  UCLA is just hanging on to their bowl hopes and they know they have to play a near perfect game to get the upset.  Let’s check out USC’s blow out wins they were against defenses ranked 117, 123, 95, 121.  Darnold may struggle here against UCLA on the road following that big upset of Washington who seemed extremely tight in that game.

UCLA’s biggest loss was by 10 points, and I like the way senior QB Mike Fafaul has played of late.  He’s turnover prone but an experienced senior and knows what it will take to beat USC.  I don’t think they will pull the upset, but UCLA definitely should stay around in this game.

Florida +20.5

An extremely low total in this game, and we are getting a ton of points with a motivated Florida team wanting to get to the SEC Champion ship game.  Florida wins and they are in.  I think they know how unfair this game is having to go to LSU after this game was rescheduled due to the hurricane and I think you get an inspired effort which is what you need against LSU’s running game.  I think the injuries Florida has had have been exaggerated in this line and as soon as I saw it go to 14.5 I was a buyer especially with a total of 37.5.

Many may worry about the QB, but actually I prefer Austin Appleby at QB by far.  Appleby has faced 3 very good defenses in Tennessee, South Carolina and Vanderbilt and has put up much better numbers than Del Rio.  He’s completing 65.6% of his passes in those games and has 5 TD’s to 2 interceptions.  LSU rebounded with Ed Oregeron taking over, but I just see far too much motivation on Florida’s side of the ball for them to just let this game slip and get blown out here.  They have plenty of 4 star guys to replace the injuries and I think their more balanced on offense and better in the red zone. 

Vanderbilt +320 2% play

I think Vandy has a good shot at pulling the upset this week especially since Ole Miss is off an upset on the road to Texas A&M, a team that is extremely banged up on defense and lost their QB.  Ole Miss also lost their QB Chad Kelly, and Shea Patterson is supposed to be the next big thing, but I think the hype for a freshmen is just too high and that’s why we get a ton of value here.  Anytime you play back to back road games in the SEC it’s not going to be an easy task.  Ole Miss also has the Egg Bowl up next as their look ahead.  Meanwhile Vanderbilt players are finally back at home trying to save Derek Mason’s job.

Vanderbilt’s defense is still very under rated and they may have the best defensive player in the country in Zach Cunningham who will be a sure 1st round pick if he decides to go to the NFL.  I actually like Vanderbilt’s defense in the red zone to be the main reason they win this game.  Ole Miss 1-5 in the red zone last week with just 1 TD, and Vanderbilt is holding opponents to 50% on the season which is impressive because they have a 40% rate in conference play which has included a ton of road games.  Vanderbilt’s offense actually should get going a little in this game.  Ole Miss allowing 5.70 yards per carry in conference play and are really weak at linebacker and have injuries in the secondary that have hurt this team.  Vandy has capable runner even without Ralph Webb being 100%, and their QB Kyle Shurmur has a capable arm has played better over his last 3 games and I think he has his best game yet in this one.

Hawaii -3 5.5% NCAAF POD

Hawaii has been pretty good in conference play on the road beating San Jose State and Air force before losing badly to San Diego State, but who doesn’t?  Hawaii, facing a bad defense in Fresno State who ranks 97th in yards per play allowed.  Hawaii vs. bad teams like that have been able to put up 31+ points on a regular basis and that gives them a tremendous edge in this game considering how bad Fresno State’s offense has been which is non-existent.  They topped 30 points 1 time all year against an FBS opponent and lost the game.

This is a rivalry game, but Hawaii I feel is better than their record when you consider their losses are against Cal, Arizona, San Diego State, Boise State, and a 3 point loss against UNLV.  Add in all of the travel disadvantages this team has and I think they are having a pretty good year.  I think they can still get into a bowl game at 6-7 and I’m sure they have that on their mind.  

Hawaii will be able to run the ball in this one especially since they had 7+ yards per carry at Boise State.  Dru Brown, a mobile QB also should give Fresno issues.  Fresno State’s defense has allowed 200+ rushing yards in every game this season and 23 rushing TD’s.  Their pass defense has not been any better allowing 20 TD’s to just 3 interceptions.  Hawaii’s main issues when they lose is the fact that they turn the ball over.  They are -12 alone in their last 3 games, but Fresno has forced just 6 turnovers all year long.  Fresno has not shown me any signs of improvement and this is by far the worst offense that Hawaii’s defense has faced.  Hawaii’s defense has had quite the stretch facing 9 of their 11 opponents who are in the top 60 in yards per play offense, 6 in the top 40.   The other 2 they held to 17 points each which is an encouraging sign for this game.  To put that into perspective Fresno has faced 1 POWER 5 opponent, Hawaii has faced 3 + Boise State, and they have faced just 3 teams in the top 40 in yards per play offense.

SMU +400 1.5% PLAY

South Florida has Central Florida up next, and SMU is no slouch especially with their offense while South Florida’s defense is not exactly able to stop many average offenses let alone an SMU offense that put up 40, 38, 35, 7, and 55 in their last 5 games.  Mixed in there are some pretty good defenses in Houston, Tulsa and Tulane all ranking better in yards per play defense than South Florida at #90.  The Memphis game SMU turned the ball over and were -3 TO margin, but today if they can have turnovers on their side they will have a chance to win the game and the value is just too high with this one not to take a shot with tremendous value.  I also like the fact that SMU is desperate to get to a bowl game they are definitely an improved team and even their defense has stepped up at times this year.  They beat Houston at home earlier in the year and if they beat South Florida that is a hell of a season.  South Florida won this game last year, but SMU turned it over 4 times in the 38-14 loss but actually outgained South Florida 365 to 353.  

Northwestern -1.5 3.3% play

I really like Northwestern in this spot.  A big concern was the weather, but as of right now it looks to be just cold with wind dying down in the afternoon when this game kicks off.  Northwestern needs 1 win to get to a bowl game and I think they’ll get it here against an over rated Minnesota team that has largely benefited from a weak schedule.  Minnesota’s 7 wins have come against 6 FBS teams who are likely not going to a bowl with a combined record of 19-40.  They also faced Indiana State who is 4-7 out of the FCS rankings.  They have played the 4 worst teams in the Big Ten in Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, and Purdue and they have avoided Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile Northwestern has played Ohio State and Wisconsin and Western Michigan in non-conference play.

All in all you still have to play the game, but Northwestern has gotten bigger in recent years in their front 7 on defense which allows them to match up well with Minnesota who actually is banged up on the offensive line coming into this game.  Northwestern has really been able to stop one dimensional offenses without a running QB or passing QB.  They held Wisconsin to 3.33 ypc, Indiana 3.11, Michigan State 2.22, and Iowa 1.93.  They are also the healthier team which really helps and their offense is much more balanced with Justin Jackson out of the backfield and the passing arm of Clayton Thorson who has 10 TD’s to 4 interceptions on the road.

Northwestern has arguably the best receiver in Austin Carr in the Big Ten and they have played well on the road against good teams.  Minnesota although they are 7-3 like I mentioned have played a very weak schedule that’s misleading.  Northwestern’s defense has held this Minnesota rushing attack in check the last two years holding them to 74 and 121 rushing yards and I think they can do it again.  Minnesota also 0-3 when they don’t have a + turnover margin and Northwestern very good at taking care of the ball with only 11 turnovers lost all season long!

UCLA +18.5 / FLORIDA +20.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

UCLA +18.5

USC in a major let down spot with Notre Dame on deck.  USC really has not been able to blow out teams with good defenses.  UCLA ranked 11th in yards per play allowed and are even better vs. the pass.  UCLA is just hanging on to their bowl hopes and they know they have to play a near perfect game to get the upset.  Let’s check out USC’s blow out wins they were against defenses ranked 117, 123, 95, 121.  Darnold may struggle here against UCLA on the road following that big upset of Washington who seemed extremely tight in that game.

UCLA’s biggest loss was by 10 points, and I like the way senior QB Mike Fafaul has played of late.  He’s turnover prone but an experienced senior and knows what it will take to beat USC.  I don’t think they will pull the upset, but UCLA definitely should stay around in this game.

Florida +20.5

An extremely low total in this game, and we are getting a ton of points with a motivated Florida team wanting to get to the SEC Champion ship game.  Florida wins and they are in.  I think they know how unfair this game is having to go to LSU after this game was rescheduled due to the hurricane and I think you get an inspired effort which is what you need against LSU’s running game.  I think the injuries Florida has had have been exaggerated in this line and as soon as I saw it go to 14.5 I was a buyer especially with a total of 37.5.

Many may worry about the QB, but actually I prefer Austin Appleby at QB by far.  Appleby has faced 3 very good defenses in Tennessee, South Carolina and Vanderbilt and has put up much better numbers than Del Rio.  He’s completing 65.6% of his passes in those games and has 5 TD’s to 2 interceptions.  LSU rebounded with Ed Oregeron taking over, but I just see far too much motivation on Florida’s side of the ball for them to just let this game slip and get blown out here.  They have plenty of 4 star guys to replace the injuries and I think their more balanced on offense and better in the red zone. 

Louisiana Lafayette +23 3.3% play

This is a massive let down sport for Georgia who is pretty content wrapping up SEC play last week with a big upset over a top 10 Auburn club.  Now they have their in-state rival Georgia Tech on deck and have to face the Rajin Cajuns, a hungry team.  There are a couple of other things I like in this one when you consider this game has a very low total of 44, and Lafayette very good against the run allowing just 3 yards per carry on the season and they have turned the ball over just 10 times all year.  Georgia’s offense really not capable of putting up a ton of points without their defense scoring. 

Georgia’s offense is really reliant on the running game and that plays into the hands of the strength of this Lafayette team.  Lafayette also good in red zone defense while Georgia has struggled in red zone defense and offense.  To win by more than 3 TD’s without caring a ton about the game will be a challenge in my opinion.  Georgia’s biggest win all year was South Carolina by 14 points and they only won by 14 because they returned an onside kick for a TD to end the game.  I remember that well as I had South Carolina +7.5.  What a way to lose!  Anyway I really like this spot to fade Georgia who is not having much of a season. 

Kansas State -1.5 2.2% play

Kansas State off a bye and Bill Snyder is 10-0 ATS under that situation.  This Kansas State team fighting for bowl eligibility and their 4 losses are not bad at all against Stanford, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.  Baylor in a free fall right now just lost their QB, and I just think this spells more trouble for Baylor who has given up 941 yards rushing in their last 3 games along 12 rushing TD’s.  Kansas State 5.80 yards per carry in their wins with 17 TD’s and 4.12 in their losses.  I believe they should be able to run all over Baylor here for an easy victory as they force Baylor’s freshmen QB Zach Smith into multiple mistakes in this game.  

ARKANSAS STATE +8.5 3.3% PLAY

Arkansas State got off to a slow start under their new head coach Blake Anderson , but their schedule was not exactly easy opening up against Toledo and then road games against Auburn and Utah State.  The shocker was their loss against Central Arkansas, but that team has gone 6-0 since and has just 1 loss on the season at 9-1 so obviously a good team.  Arkansas State started conference play after that game and have cruised to a 5-0 record.  They were picked to win the Sun Belt or challenge Appalachian State, and they still control their own destiny.  Call me crazy, but I think they may be able to beat Troy outright here and I think Troy is definitely getting some extra love here finding themselves in the top 25, the first Sun Belt team ever.

Troy was lucky that App State got off to such a slow start and they were able to hold the ball last and get the win to end the game a week ago.  Other than that this team really has not blown out any good teams.  They have 4 wins by more than 10.5 points this year and those teams are a combined 10-29 -  2-7, 6-4 (Idaho), and 2-8 Umass and 0-10 Austin Peay.  Arkansas State is a completely different team I conference play.  They are averaging 1.97 ypc more in conference play,  and holding opponents to -1.23 less than their non-conference schedule.  Their pass defense also has gotten dramatically better in conference playing holding opponents to a 51.8% completion %, and 3 TD’s to just 6 interceptions while their 3rd down and red zone defenses are excellent.  Third down defense holding opponents 26.92% in conference play, and their red zone defense has allowed only 28.57% TD percentage in conference play.  They had major turnover issues earlier in the season with 12 in a 3 game stretch, but have cleaned those up with just 3 total turnovers over their last 4 games where they are +5 in TO margin.

Last week I was on App State in a teaser and I mentioned all of the bad rushing offenses this Troy team has faced.  App State got the running game going at 4.39 yards per carry with 2 TD’s.  I’m betting on Arkansas State to have a similar result, and their defense is just as good.  Expect another close game here, and if anything Troy coming off a tough game where they beat the Sun Belt favorites.  This could be a bit of a let down spot and Arkansas State, a more experienced program in terms of fighting for a conference title. 

Northern Illinois pk 3.3% play 

Let's kick off the week here in MACTION.  I will fade the line movement here today which is based on the fact that everyone is saying Northern Illinois is done at 3-7 and can't get to a bowl game etc, but this year they actually can at 5-7 with not a ton of teams contending for winning record seasons.  I'm sure they know this, and they have been playing much better lately.  For Eastern Michigan they have 6 wins likely heading to a bowl and very content and I think this is a step up in competition for them, because Northern Illinois is definitely improving at the right time which is what you want to see and in reality both these teams are 3-3 in conference play.

Eastern Michigan is definitely improved in all areas this year which was expected in a three year coach, but a closer look and really they are beting up on bad teams from the MAC East.  They barely got by the worst team in the MAC West in Ball State, but otherwise they are 1-2 vs. the MAC West.  On paper it looks like they have a massive edge in the passing game, but Northern Illinois has played much better lately.  They have 6 sacks against two top 30 pass protection teams in their last two games and have forced 7 interceptions over their last 3.  That's important, because Eastern Michigan while they have forced 21 they have given up 19.  I think Northern Illinois can generate a pass rush here and force some turnovers.

Another thing I looked at was Eastern MIchigan's improved run defense allowing just 152.1 yards per game which is 48th in the country, but they are actually so bad against the pass 119th that nobody has bothered to run much on them. Just 3 teams all year with more than 40 carries against them where they went 1-2 in those games with their only win being against Bowling Green by only 3 points and BG was just awful at the time.  Northern Illinois is 20th in the country running the ball from a YPC perspective and have 40+ carries in 7 of their 10 games.  Northern Illinois will run their QB a lot which is tough to stop for EAstern Michigan who has allowed over 4 yards per carry in six straight games and likely will do the same here.  If they don't win the turnover margin they will likely lose this game and that's what I am banking on based on recent results as Northern Illinois has protected the ball with just 3 turnovers the last 3 games while Eastern Michigan has 6 turnovers in their last 3 games.  I think Northern Illinois is a proud team and they will want to win this game. 

APP STATE +7.5 / NEBRASKA -0.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

We are in a major funk with these plays the last two weeks the difference between 0-2 and 2-0 have been a total of 4.5 points.

NEBRASKA – Nebraska is 18-0 in their last 18 home games at night as this game will be.  Tommy Armstrong practiced this week and should be a full go for the game.  Mike Riley said if he’s out there the offense will not hold back.  It also helps that they are getting RG Jeral Foster back who will bolster the offensive line which has had injuries.  We get tremendous value in the line based on Nebraska’s 62-3 loss against Ohio State.  Minnesota has been rolling, but their schedule has been really easy as they have avoided Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Their last 3 games have been against the worst in the Big Ten and for that reason I think they are getting far too much credit.

The strength of schedule is a big deal because Nebraska has faced 8 teams in the top 50 in YPP offense + defense while Minnesota has faced just two combined.  Nebraska still can win the West as can Minnesota, but really the difference here will be the fact that Minnesota is playing a team with a mobile QB, who has a good arm when his mechanics are right and he’s played so much better at home over his career.  This year he has a 149 QB Rating at home compared to 88 on the road.  To go along with a rushing offense that needs to pick it up and I believe they will do just that here today.  On the other side Minnesota is a one dimensional attack and Nebraska should have everything they need to stop it here tonight. They held Minnesota to 65 rushing yards on the road last year, and although their run defense on paper does not look good it’s because they have faced two top 20 rushing offenses that have inflated their numbers.  That just brings me back to the fact that Minnesota has not played anyone.

APP STATE - This is going to be a battle, and a battle I think App State overall wins.  For one they have had the tougher schedule with a total of 6 teams in the top 50 in yards per play offense + yards per play defense.  Troy comes in with just 4.  Overall these teams are very similar.  They can play defense, and they can move the ball.  I think App State is a little bit better on defense, and their offense really has not been able to play at full strength with the health of Marcus Cox not there each week, but with him, Jalin Moore, and Taylor Lamb I am confident this team will move the ball against Troy’s run defense ranked among the best in the country.  A closer look reveals the fact that Troy has not face a team in the top 65 in rushing offense from a YPC perspective and App State is #34.  In fact they have faced an average opponent offense ranked 108th.  That can really help out a secondary when you don’t have to really concentrate on stopping the run.  With all that said this secondary has still struggled at times giving up a lot of yards, but they make up for it by forcing turnovers.  I don’t think they can afford to play that well today with the relentless rushing attack that will be on the other side.

This game is going to come down to a field goal in my opinion and I feel like I have the better defense in a playoff like atmosphere I’ll take App State who has been in tougher games this season. 

Arkansas +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

The Tigers have not played particularly well in the previous six contests following a defeat against Alabama. LSU has won four of the six games, but struggled in knocking off Troy (2008), Louisiana Tech (2009) and Mississippi State (2012).

The Tigers did comfortably beat Texas A&M 34-10 in 2013. However, LSU had the benefit of an open date after losing to the Tide that year. Arkansas whipped LSU the past two seasons by scores of 17-0 and 31-14 – the latter loss coming in Tiger Stadium.

I don’t really understand this spread other than the fact that LSU has a top 10 rushing offense and Arkansas has one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation and in the SEC.  However, Arkansas really was banged up before their bye.  Against Florida last week, a run first team they managed to hold them to 14 rushing yards.  The defense is healthy and was only on the field for 20 minutes last week and 51 total plays compared to the LSU’s defense which was on the field for 34 minutes and 70 plays.  They also played in a very physical game, and I expect a major hang over for this team and their head coach Ed Orgeron, who is likely out after the season.  LSU, not much to play for here with 3 losses other than maybe revenge against Arkansas, but I still think Arkansas has too good of an offense to lose by more than a TD.

A couple of other things here.  LSU struggled the last two years to run the ball against Arkansas with 59 rushing yards, and 36 rushing yards.  Arkansas got healthy last week, and againt his week they get another opportunity to play in their base defense, the 4-3 and allow their linebackers to make the plays.  They don’t have a big threat in LSU’s passing game, much like last week and that should give them good results to keep this game close.  On flip side LSU’s defense will have their hands full.  Arkansas has a balanced attack, and the running game has gotten much better since they moved some things on the offensive line.  This is a team with serious weapons in the receiving corps and Austin Allen is doing a good job of getting the ball to all of them who are mostly upper classmen playing in their last game at home!  This offense put up 30 points against Alabama’s defense despite 5 turnovers.  Arkansas has cleaned up the turnovers and have actually forced 12 turnovers in 6 home games meanwhile LSU’s defense as good as it is has forced only 12 turnovers all year.

At the end of the day these teams are pretty even, and we are still catching value off Arkansas getting dominated by Auburn just a few weeks ago, but this is a different Arkansas team that is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 November games which includes 8-2 ATS under their head coach Bielema. 

South Florida -3 3.3% play

Some misleading things going on here in my opinion.  Let’s start with each teams last game.  Memphis dominated SMU 51-7, less than 500 total yards, and benefited from a kick off return for a TD and +3 TO ratio.  There were 4 fumbles in the game and Memphis recovered every single one including their own.  SMU, 124th in the nation in special teams and now Memphis has to face a South Florida team coming into this game with revenge for their only home loss a season ago to Memphis 24-17.  South Florida sports a top 25 special teams unit, and has just 1 turnover all season on the road.  This is also the best offense that Memphis has faced, one could argue.  South Florida is top 10 in yards per play.  Memphis has faced 4 teams in the top 51 and have allowed an average 44 points per game in those contests on their way to a 1-3 record.  I’m hiding the fact that South Florida comes into the game having faced 4 top 50 offenses too and allowed 40.75 ppg, but their non-conference schedule was much tougher, and the bye to rest up is certainly an advantage when you consider Memphis is playing in their 9th straight week.

South Florida also has a trio of runners in Flowers at QB, Marlon Mack and Dernest Johnson all capable of dominating this game.  Flowers also very efficient through the air and is certainly a dual threat QB, something that Memphis has not faced this season.  South Florida has lost two games and in those games they gave up 10 rushing TD’s and 6.99 yards per carry.  I really don’t see that being a factor with a rested team.  Memphis of course also more of a passing team as they rank 104th in adjusted run defense while South Florida struggles with the runt hey are better at defending the pass ranking 53rd in adjusted pass defense.  I really like the match up when you consider Memphis ranks 96th vs. the run and South Florida is 7th running the ball.  South Florida’s pass defense has been really good allowing just 10 TD’s on the year to 8 interceptions.  Riley Ferguson has been very good, but he has turned the ball over at times.  Memphis just 2-3 when they don’t win the TO margin battle and as I mentioned South Florida has 1 turnover on the road this year.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, Memphis is 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games after scoring 40+ in their previous game is getting too much credit here.  I’ll take South Florida as the road favorite. 

APP STATE +7.5 / NEBRASKA -0.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

We are in a major funk with these plays the last two weeks the difference between 0-2 and 2-0 have been a total of 4.5 points.

NEBRASKA – Nebraska is 18-0 in their last 18 home games at night as this game will be.  Tommy Armstrong practiced this week and should be a full go for the game.  Mike Riley said if he’s out there the offense will not hold back.  It also helps that they are getting RG Jeral Foster back who will bolster the offensive line which has had injuries.  We get tremendous value in the line based on Nebraska’s 62-3 loss against Ohio State.  Minnesota has been rolling, but their schedule has been really easy as they have avoided Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Their last 3 games have been against the worst in the Big Ten and for that reason I think they are getting far too much credit.

The strength of schedule is a big deal because Nebraska has faced 8 teams in the top 50 in YPP offense + defense while Minnesota has faced just two combined.  Nebraska still can win the West as can Minnesota, but really the difference here will be the fact that Minnesota is playing a team with a mobile QB, who has a good arm when his mechanics are right and he’s played so much better at home over his career.  This year he has a 149 QB Rating at home compared to 88 on the road.  To go along with a rushing offense that needs to pick it up and I believe they will do just that here today.  On the other side Minnesota is a one dimensional attack and Nebraska should have everything they need to stop it here tonight. They held Minnesota to 65 rushing yards on the road last year, and although their run defense on paper does not look good it’s because they have faced two top 20 rushing offenses that have inflated their numbers.  That just brings me back to the fact that Minnesota has not played anyone.

APP STATE - This is going to be a battle, and a battle I think App State overall wins.  For one they have had the tougher schedule with a total of 6 teams in the top 50 in yards per play offense + yards per play defense.  Troy comes in with just 4.  Overall these teams are very similar.  They can play defense, and they can move the ball.  I think App State is a little bit better on defense, and their offense really has not been able to play at full strength with the health of Marcus Cox not there each week, but with him, Jalin Moore, and Taylor Lamb I am confident this team will move the ball against Troy’s run defense ranked among the best in the country.  A closer look reveals the fact that Troy has not face a team in the top 65 in rushing offense from a YPC perspective and App State is #34.  In fact they have faced an average opponent offense ranked 108th.  That can really help out a secondary when you don’t have to really concentrate on stopping the run.  With all that said this secondary has still struggled at times giving up a lot of yards, but they make up for it by forcing turnovers.  I don’t think they can afford to play that well today with the relentless rushing attack that will be on the other side.

This game is going to come down to a field goal in my opinion and I feel like I have the better defense in a playoff like atmosphere I’ll take App State who has been in tougher games this season. 

TULANE +25 2.2% Play

It’s hard not to play Tulane here after having them last week and Houston clearly looking ahead to their showdown with Louisville in 5 days.  Tulane actually had a 348-297 yard edge in their 37-6 loss to Central Florida, but had 5 turnovers with 3 of them being returned for touch downs.  They honestly could have or should have won the game.  The shitty thing was they only had 3 turnovers on the road all season going into that game so they had been taking care of the ball.   This is a value play as much as it is a look ahead spot for Houston who has no business laying this many points after the way they have played the last 4 weeks. 

Boston College +21 3.3% play 

BC is hunting for wins to get into a bowl game and Florida State has about had it.  Last week I took NC State money line over Florida State and they were lucky to come back and win that game. Florida State's defense has been on the field 80+ plays the last two games, and have been on the field 34 and 33 minutes.  Boston College a team that likes to hold onto the time of possession should control this game in that sense and I don't see Florida State running the score up like Louisville, Clemson and Va Tech did to Boston College. 

In each of those games BC struggled to stop the running game of their opponent.  I don't see that happening here, all 3 of those team shave running QB's with option attacks and that's not Florida State.  Francois is a mobile, but he has just 87 rushing yards due to the struggles of his offensive line who have allowed 28 sacks and 60 tackles for loss.  Boston College very good up front and is allowing less than 3 yards per carry on the season. BC has held Florida State to 110 and 98 yards rushing the last two years.  This game has a very low total of 47 give me Boston College +21! 

LSU +7.5 2.2% PLAY

There is a reason Alabama is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road this year and laying huge numbers.  When you look at all three games they faced the following run defenses, 117, 128, and 94.  To beat this Alabama team you have to start by stopping the run and neither of those SEC teams could do it, but in comes LSU as one of the top run defenses in the country, and they are also a top pass defense something Alabama really not used to seeing.  Points will be at a premium.  Another thing in common with all 3 road games is the fact that Alabama faced rushing offenses of 71, 115, and 81 so that just tells me that they have not faced a team that can match up with them in the trenches.  LSU is #1 in rushing offense from a YPC perspective, and they’re at home at night in death valley.  I think LSU puts Alabama in a spot they haven’t been all year and with a freshman QB in Jalen Hurts I’m just not so sure they lose this game.  I really do not trust Jalen Hurts with the ball so if LSU can stop the run like they have been doing all season long this is a game played in the teens.

People forget that this Alabama team actually lost quite a bit form last year’s team which included 24 letterman compared to LSU’s 13.  LSU returned 17 starters to Alabama’s 11.  I know that’s history at this point in the season, but LSU’s recruiting and talent is as close to Alabama as any other team.  The key I think in this game is whether or not LSU trusts their defense to win the game.  I think they do, and I think we see a lot of running with some play action and timely throws.  This is Ed Orgeron’s biggest game he has nothing to lose and I think the pressure is really on Alabama who is the #1 seed in the college football playoff. LSU’s losses don’t look as bad now do they?  Wisconsin is the real deal and LSU had to go on the road to play that game, and Auburn is now getting serious national attention and Les Miles really blew that game on the road and they actually won it in regulation, but time expired.

Iowa +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / Iowa +255 1% bonus

Penn State can win out and get into the college football playoff!  That’s not happening and now that they are ranked #12 they have a target on their back and this line is extremely inflated for unjust reasons.  First of all it started with a 3 point win over Minnesota a weaker version of Iowa in reality.  In that game Penn State was +2 total yards, -12 in first downs, -13.5 minutes in time of possession, but they got a key turnover that gave them the win.  Against Maryland they were simply dominant +254 yards, but they still allowed 4.5 yards per carry and were fortunate when Perry Hills, Maryland’s senior QB left very early in that game.  Against Ohio State it was the miracle 60 yard blocked field goal returned for a TD as Ohio State was trying to go up by 7.  Ohio State dominated time of possession 37 minutes to 22 in that game and were coming off a very tough physical game at Wisconsin.  You still have to give them credit for that win, and then they go on the road and beat Purdue 62-24 and now the entire country is giving them credit, but it was a 17-17 game at the half.  Purdue, a very one dimensional offense turned the ball over 4 times and the game was much closer than what the final said.  Purdue also held a significant edge in time of possession 35 to 25 and held Penn State to 2-9 on third down, but they could not stop Saquan Barkley.

I believe Iowa can stop Barkley and I believe this spread is very much inflated.  Iowa coming in off a bye after losing to Wisconsin.  Iowa still has a ton to play for including a shot at the Big Ten Championship game if they win out.  Iowa’s head coach Kirk Ferentz is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS the last 6 times he is off a bye in the regular season.  The key is run the ball and stop the run, and I believe they can do both here.  First of all Penn State has allowed 6 of 8 opponents to run for 150 or more yards.  Iowa is 26-2 since the 2013 season when they are able to run for over 150+ yards which includes a 5-0 record this season.  While I think their run defense may have some issues with Barkley the extra time to prepare with definitely help, and it’s not like Penn State is blowing opponents out unless they are significantly winning the TO margin, and Iowa has turned the ball over just 5 times all year.  Penn State also has been a big play team this year, and Iowa’s defense is very consistent and good defending big plays. 

Penn State has actually been terrible on third down they were 2-9 against Purdue.  Purdue was allowing opponents at home to convert on 53% of their third downs.  Penn State just 25% on the year, 24% in conference play on third downs and that has transitioned over to their red zone performance of 54% TD’s.  Their defense has also struggled allowing 44% conversions on third down and 63.33% TD’s in red zone play.  Iowa on the other hand has been better on offense and defense across the board in red zone and third down efficiency which is a big key in a close game like this and that’s why I think Iowa is able to pull the upset.  All the pressure on Penn State now that they are ranked #12 with a path to the college football playoff, but I think Iowa has a big head coaching edge in this one. I think you see a huge game from Akrum Wadley

Georgia +4 / Northwestern +12 4.4% Teaser of the week

Georgia +4

I’m going with the more desperate team in this match up that has had the tougher schedule.  Kentucky playing well, because they are finally running the ball more than throwing at 63% on the year.  However, they have faced a top 70 rushing defense 3 times this year and are 1-2 with their only victory by 2 points to Miss State at home.  The other two games against Florida & Alabama they managed just 13 points combined.  Georgia has that kind of defense when you look at what they can do against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, allowing just 2.8 YPC in conference play.  Kentucky is at home, but Georgia is at its best when it can run the ball.  Kentucky’s defense is certainly improved, but against the run they are allowing 4.73 ypc in conference play.  Georgia has a big arm QB and as long as he does not make big mistakes Georgia wins this game, because they will be able to run the ball.

Northwestern +12

The Wildcats may just have the best QB in the conference, and Wisconsin having serious issues scoring the ball on anyone have now resorted to a two QB system.  Northwestern put up 20 points at Ohio State last week they put up 24 against a good Indiana defense, 54 on Michigan State, 38 on Iowa.  I just don’t see them getting blown out against Wisconsin with a total of 41 in the game.  Clayton Thorson has been great completing 57.1% of his passes for 15 TD’s and 6 INT’s and he can also run it a little bit, but will rely on Justin Jackson who only rushed it 17 times last week.

Wisconsin’s defense is also banged up with 5 linebackers either questionable or out for the season.  It looks like T.J. Watt will give it a go, but there is just a lot on their injury list and Northwestern is completely healthy.  I expect a competitive game that’s anyone’s game in the 4th quarter. 

NC STATE +189 3% play 

I really like NC State in this spot and think they pull the upset.  First of all Florida State off their loss to Clemson that was really their Super Bowl now at 5-3 it’s hard to see where their effort is going to be the rest of the way.  We have certainly seen that before with Florida State and going on the road to face NC State is no easy task.  NC State is very strong in the front seven and have stopped everyone against the run.  I think they can do the same in this game and I think we are getting several points of value since NC State is off 3 straight losses, but 2 where on the road against Clemson and Louisville.  Then they had to face Boston College at home, another physical defense and I was not surprised to see them lose last week, but not they are home again and they finally face a defense that’s not in the top 30 in run defense.  Although Florida State has played better of late they still have an 87th ranked QB rating defense which is huge in this spot when you consider FSU is also without another guy in the secondary in Trey Marshall who is suspended for the first half for a targeting call.  That should open things up for NC State and the passing offense.  Ryan Finley, the QB transfer form Boise has 10 TD’s to 2 INT”s at home and if NC State can get a lead I think they win this game.

Florida State’s offensive line also has struggled big time and although it’s gotten better in their run blocking they now lose another guy who has started the last 7 games in Landon Dickerson.  They go on the road with not much motivation to play hard against an NC State team that ranks top 25 in defense against the run and pass and are extremely tough in their front seven.  If they get behind in this game Florida State is 114th in pass protection and NC State is 25th getting to the QB 10.74 % of the time at home.  I also like the fact that NC State is 21st in defense holding opponents 71.3 yards under their season average.  They have given Florida State scares in the past when Florida State had all the motivation to come back, but this time off the Clemson loss they are 5-3 nothing to play for if they go down in this game NC State with the outright upset.  They are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

The home-field advantage in Carter-Finley is underrated, and if the Wolfpack fans smell a potential upset in the the works, it will become increasingly difficult for FSU to come from behind. This home-field advantage, especially at night, is major reason why Jimbo Fisher is just 1-2 overall in games at Raleigh.

Tulane +17 3.3% play

This is a game that was postponed from October during the hurricane.  Tulane really needs this game badly if they want to get into a bowl game, but nonetheless this is a dramatic improvement for this team under HC Willie Fritz.  I believe we are getting some line value too when you consider the spread was 13.5 back in October.  Tulane really has not been blown out this season losing by 4, 7, 10, 4, and 23 points to Tulsa on the road.  Tulsa of course plays much faster #1 in the country at 92 plays per game at home and they are 60th in yards per play offense.  Central Florida ranks 105th YPP and is averaging 17 less plays per game.  Central Florida has not played well offensively in conference play averaging 2.98 ypc, 29% on third down and their QB has 5 TD’s to 5INT’s.  Tulane is 14th in sack % and could bring the heat if UCF decides to start throwing the ball around.  UCF has given up 24 sacks, so I’m sure they don’t want to do that at home.  Tulane’s defense also ranks 27th holding opponents 57.4 yards under their season offensive average.

Both teams prefer to run the ball which is the reason why we see this total at 50.  Tulane will run the ball 69% of the time on the road keeping the clock ticking another reason why they have been in the majority of their games.  Central Florida comes in running the ball 57% of the time.  The only time Central Florida blew out an opponent was East Carolina who they were +3 in turnover margin on.  Tulane is +10 on the season and has turned the ball over just 3 times on the road.  Central Florida plays well defensively, but their strength is more against the pass and they have shown vulnerabilities vs. the run which we know Fritz loves to do with that option attack. I just see no reason why Central Florida should be a 17 point favorite.  If anything they are going to be a little upset this after losing to Houston by only 7 points despite forcing 4 turnovers.

Missouri +220 2% PLAY

I think we have a good shot at Missouri pulling an upset this week.  I certainly do not trust Will Muschamp in back to back games after he just pulled an upset over Tennessee, a team that has simply fallen apart.  Missouri has had some injuries on defense, but they have had the last few weeks to get the backups in and used to play.  Missouri should be able to score some points here and South Carolina is 0-2 this year vs. top 50 yards per play offenses.

South Carolina’s offense is ranked 112th, and Missouri’s defense has struggled, but they have faced a lot of good offenses including 5 in the top 50.  Their 3 top opponents West Virginia, LSU, and Florida all on the road.  So there home away splits are a bit inflated and I think Missouri may have their best game here to try to hold onto the possibility of a bowl game.  Meanwhile Will Muschamp and company are looking ahead to their next opponent the Florida Gators.  Muschamp’s previous employer. 

Arkansas +4 4.4% play

The strength of schedule comparison is ridiculously uneven.  Arkansas' four previous SEC opponents, Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn all rank in the top five in total offense and in the top four in scoring offense. Three of those four are in the Top-10 of the College Football Playoff Ranking. Florida hasn't played anybody ranked in the current Top-25. Arkansas has played four teams ranked in the Top-25 when they met them. Florida has played one in Tennessee, which is currently on a three-game losing streak and is no longer ranked, and Florida lost that one 38-28.

Arkansas also coming off the bye this week which was very much needed for the health of the offensive line, the QB, and their TE Sprinkle.  In my opinion Florida has not faced an offense as good as Arkansas especially not on the road.  Arkansas QB is going to the NFL and Austin Allen has 4 legitimate weapons in Sprinkle, Cornelius, Hatcher, and Morgan.  Florida’s defense on the road against Tennessee they gave up 38 points, 319 passing yards and 4 TD’s and that was with Tennessee coming out flat.  Florida has faced an average offensive team from a YPP perspective of 91, and they have not faced a single QB in the top 50 in QB rating for a team, Arkansas #32.  On the flip side Arkansas defense has faced an average offensive ranking of #48 in YPP.  So this is actually a downgrade in competition for them.

I mentioned the bye, but I also think we get value as Florida covered at Georgia in misleading fashion, and Arkansas, was gassed on the road against Auburn lost 56-3.  This is a team that gave Alabama a run for their money at home.  Florida just is not getting my respect here I expect Arkansas to win this game outright as Florida has not shown they can run the ball on the road with just 2.6ypc and rank #63 overall in YPC offense.  Arkansas has clearly struggled stopping the run, but they have faced 4 teams in the top 20 with running QB’s.  I believe Arkansas defense is better than their rankings and they will play well here on Satuday.

Kansas State -3 +105 3% play

I like the Wildcats here getting +105, if you wait you can probably get -2.5 on Friday or Saturday.  I think this is a flat spot for Oklahoma State following their victory over a top 10 West Virginia team last week.  Now they go on the road to face a Bill Snyder squad who I have favored by 6 in this game.  That does not take into consideration that Kansas State has faced a more challenging schedule this season.  Mike Gundy has been excellent since 2005 in August – October with a 71-23 record, but once November hits he’s just 22-20.  The home team has also won the last 5 meetings.

The match up I really like in this spot is the fact that Kansas State should be able to run the ball.  Oklahoma State is ranked 95th and have allowed opponents +30.5 yards per game over their season average offensively.  Kansas State is ranked 28th in that regard holding opponents well under their season averages.  Oklahoma State has been victim of QB’s picking up yards with their feet.  Baylor’s Seth Russel had 65 yards on 10 carries, Iowa State’s Joel Lanning had 67 yards (highest total this year) and he’s not nearly the running QB Kansas State’s Jesse Ertz is and even Kansas Montell Cozart had 6 carries for 30 yards his highest all year.  That’s a huge key, because Kansas State has put up points against bad defenses, and they average 5.82 ypc at home, 5.80 ypc in wins 3.04 in losses.  Oklahoma State is allowing 5.16 ypc in conference play so I expect Kansas State to have success running the ball here and controlling the game. 

Oklahoma State is very one dimensional, and they don’t protect their QB ranked 86th overall in QB protection.  In their road games this year they have allowed 11% sack percentage.  Kansas State has had success getting to the QB at home and have been able to force turnovers.  Kansas State has turned the ball over just 7 times this year.  Oklahoma State when they are not more than +1 in TO margin are just 2-2 on the year.

Syracuse +28 2.2% PLAY

I see a few 28’s popping back up and I recommend if you see the 28 to take it.

The Orange are off a bye which is extremely valuable to a growing program.  The offense is capable of keeping up with Clemson. Clemson of course off the emotional victory over Florida State on the road last week.  We mentioned it in our podcast we mentioned it in other premium selections.  Teams ranked in the college football playoff tend to struggle to cover the spread.  Clemson has only blown out one team all year in Boston College.  Syracuse of course can score some points and Clemson really has no motivation to impress anyone.  They win out no matter how many points they win by and they are in the college football playoff, but this is far too many points for this team.  I would not be shocked if Clemson struggles in the early going and has to come from behind to win.  If this were in NY I would probably sprinkle a little on the money line. 

Georgia +4 / Northwestern +12 4.4% Teaser of the week

Georgia +4

I’m going with the more desperate team in this match up that has had the tougher schedule.  Kentucky playing well, because they are finally running the ball more than throwing at 63% on the year.  However, they have faced a top 70 rushing defense 3 times this year and are 1-2 with their only victory by 2 points to Miss State at home.  The other two games against Florida & Alabama they managed just 13 points combined.  Georgia has that kind of defense when you look at what they can do against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, allowing just 2.8 YPC in conference play.  Kentucky is at home, but Georgia is at its best when it can run the ball.  Kentucky’s defense is certainly improved, but against the run they are allowing 4.73 ypc in conference play.  Georgia has a big arm QB and as long as he does not make big mistakes Georgia wins this game, because they will be able to run the ball.

Northwestern +12

The Wildcats may just have the best QB in the conference, and Wisconsin having serious issues scoring the ball on anyone have now resorted to a two QB system.  Northwestern put up 20 points at Ohio State last week they put up 24 against a good Indiana defense, 54 on Michigan State, 38 on Iowa.  I just don’t see them getting blown out against Wisconsin with a total of 41 in the game.  Clayton Thorson has been great completing 57.1% of his passes for 15 TD’s and 6 INT’s and he can also run it a little bit, but will rely on Justin Jackson who only rushed it 17 times last week.

Wisconsin’s defense is also banged up with 5 linebackers either questionable or out for the season.  It looks like T.J. Watt will give it a go, but there is just a lot on their injury list and Northwestern is completely healthy.  I expect a competitive game that’s anyone’s game in the 4th quarter. 

UCLA/Colorado Under 58 2.2% play

I actually like the Bruins in this spot tonight, but can’t really pull the trigger.  I actually like the under more as UCLA has a very under rated defense and my numbers have this about 51.  I think we are getting some extra points given the fact that UCLA put up 42 on Utah.  This will be a very different game on the road in Colorado, and even though I like how Mike Fafaul has looked it’s hard to back a guy who just threw 4 interceptions and 464 yards.  Instead I’ll take the under here.  I do believe Colorado has the pass defense to shut UCLA’s offense down.  Both teams are struggling in the red zone and both defenses have played well.

In fact UCLA has allowed just 2.96 yards per carry on the road this year.  They are also ranked 29th allowing 56.6 yards below their opponent’s average.  Meanwhile Colorado comes into this game ranked 16th in that category.  Definitely a lot more defense in this game.  Both teams come in with extra rest and to me that typically benefits the defenses at this point in the season.   If you want you could parlay UCLA with the under for some good value.  Typically if you like an underdog the under will cash. 

Iowa State +21 -115 2% play

I like Iowa State here.  I have felt all season Oklahoma has been an over rated team, and now they are put into a situation they are not used to.  That's traveling on short rest to play a Thursday night game.  Stoops actually might be out coached in this game against Iowa State, a rivalry he has owned for a long time.  I think it's also important to note that Oklahoma has a much bigger game on deck against Baylor that they are looking ahead to that.  Iowa State has played some conference opponents tough at home.  They gave a game to Kansas State, and Baylor, and they lost only 7 points on the road against Oklahoma State.  I think Matt Campbell is ahead of schedule with this team and despite their 1-7 record they have been a competitive team. 

Hawaii / New Mexico Over 63.5 2.2% play

This total has come down nearly 4 points and that’s enough for me to take the over as I have this one predicted at 70 total points.  New Mexico features the #4 run offense in terms of yards per carry.  Hawaii has really struggled stopping the run.  Hawaii has given up 51, 63, 47, and 41 points to teams in the top 32 in rushing yards per carry.  Air Force is not in the top 50 this year, but they too had nearly 400 yards rushing on Hawaii, but somehow managed just 27 points.  New Mexico should have their way with Hawaii in an back and forth game. 

It’s also important to note that Hawaii is a much improved team and they are starting to get balanced behind their QB Dru Brown who had 3 passing TD’s a week ago.  Hawaii’s offense at this point is capable of beating a team in the air or on the ground which makes for an exciting offensive display here tonight against New Mexico who is given up 30+ points to teams ranked 67th, 128th, 77th, and 125th in yards per play allowed.  Hawaii is in the top 25 as is New Mexico’s offense in yards per play.  These are offensive teams that can score on average to even above average defenses.  Both recently faced Air force who ranks 36th in yards per play allowed and they put up 45 and 34 points each.  Expect that kind of score as Hawaii is scoring 85% TD’s in the red zone, New Mexico is allowing 81% in conference play.

Ole Miss +10.5 Teaser w/ Nebraska +15 4.4% Play

Nebraska

First things first we have a very low total with a lot of points to work with.  Wisconsin also has played Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa the last 4 weeks which has really had an impact with some wear and tear as 16 guys on the injured list for Wisconsin this week.  Nebraska on the other hand is really getting healthy with three offensive lineman including Nick Gates, and David Knevel returning along with their best offensive weapon Jordan Westerkamp.  This is a perfect opportunity for Nebraska to pull the upset and continue their undefeated season.  Either way I don’t think Wisconsin’s offense is good enough to be almost a double digit favorite.  Wisconsin is #91 in rushing yards per carry, and their QB has shown some poise, but Hornibrook 5 TD’s to 6 interceptions is not going to scare anyone and Nebraska’s pass defense is very good.  Only two teams this season have eclipsed 20 points on the Huskers defense and both were better offensively and sported an up tempo attack.  Indiana 57th in YPP, and Oregon 17th.  Wisconsin ranks 82nd.

Nebraska getting healthy on offense for this game is a big deal.  I think they have some tricks up their sleeves and won’t be afraid to take some shots.  Mike Riley has known to be very aggressive.  Wisconsin’s defense has struggled against one thing this year and that’s a rushing QB.  JT Barret had 92 yards and 2 TD’s ultimately being the difference in that game.  Tommy Armstrong has a better arm than Barret although he will make the occasional mistake he has taken care of the ball this year.  Armstrong had 50 yards rushing on 8 carries against Wisconsin last year in the 2 point loss.  Nebraska also has the edge on special teams ranking 13th overall to Wisconsin ranking 72nd.

Ole Miss -

A couple of things in this game.  First of all Auburn is going on the road for the second time all year long.  Auburn has faced a top 35 offense from a YPP perspective just 3 times this season and they are 1-2 in those games with their win coming against LSU by only 5 points at home.  Ole Miss has had a brutal schedule and people forget nobody played Alabama tighter than Ole Miss.  They still have arguably the nation’s best QB in Chad Kelly.  Auburn’s defense has been stout, but they haven’t faced a QB like Kelly who threw for 400 yards on them a year ago.  I’m just not ready to call Auburn a Top 10 team and Ole Miss is probably the best 4 loss team in the country.  They have had a brutal schedule and it does not get any easier, but this is a game they could win and we are getting some extra points because of recent public perception.

For one Ole Miss just lost at Arkansas and Auburn just crush Arkansas 56-3, but that was truly a bad spot for Arkansas in my opinion.  Ole Miss also off back to back losses, and I think they really need this game to feel good about themselves.  Ole Miss pass defense is excellent at home allowing 0 passing TD’s on the year.  Sean White in 4 road games has 1 passing TD and 3 interceptions.  He’s played well, but Ole Miss pass defense is very good and should be able to keep the scoring down in this game.  Auburn is a run first team and Ole Miss struggles vs. the run, but I think they should be able to contain it better than the experts think especially since Auburn only averaged 4 yards per carry at Miss State.  I think the Ole Miss, a night game as an underdog against a ranked team is a very dangerous thing especially when you consider this team nearly upset Alabama here.

Ole Miss +10.5 Teaser w/ Nebraska +15 4.4% Play

Nebraska

First things first we have a very low total with a lot of points to work with.  Wisconsin also has played Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa the last 4 weeks which has really had an impact with some wear and tear as 16 guys on the injured list for Wisconsin this week.  Nebraska on the other hand is really getting healthy with three offensive lineman including Nick Gates, and David Knevel returning along with their best offensive weapon Jordan Westerkamp.  This is a perfect opportunity for Nebraska to pull the upset and continue their undefeated season.  Either way I don’t think Wisconsin’s offense is good enough to be almost a double digit favorite.  Wisconsin is #91 in rushing yards per carry, and their QB has shown some poise, but Hornibrook 5 TD’s to 6 interceptions is not going to scare anyone and Nebraska’s pass defense is very good.  Only two teams this season have eclipsed 20 points on the Huskers defense and both were better offensively and sported an up tempo attack.  Indiana 57th in YPP, and Oregon 17th.  Wisconsin ranks 82nd.

Nebraska getting healthy on offense for this game is a big deal.  I think they have some tricks up their sleeves and won’t be afraid to take some shots.  Mike Riley has known to be very aggressive.  Wisconsin’s defense has struggled against one thing this year and that’s a rushing QB.  JT Barret had 92 yards and 2 TD’s ultimately being the difference in that game.  Tommy Armstrong has a better arm than Barret although he will make the occasional mistake he has taken care of the ball this year.  Armstrong had 50 yards rushing on 8 carries against Wisconsin last year in the 2 point loss.  Nebraska also has the edge on special teams ranking 13th overall to Wisconsin ranking 72nd.

Ole Miss -

A couple of things in this game.  First of all Auburn is going on the road for the second time all year long.  Auburn has faced a top 35 offense from a YPP perspective just 3 times this season and they are 1-2 in those games with their win coming against LSU by only 5 points at home.  Ole Miss has had a brutal schedule and people forget nobody played Alabama tighter than Ole Miss.  They still have arguably the nation’s best QB in Chad Kelly.  Auburn’s defense has been stout, but they haven’t faced a QB like Kelly who threw for 400 yards on them a year ago.  I’m just not ready to call Auburn a Top 10 team and Ole Miss is probably the best 4 loss team in the country.  They have had a brutal schedule and it does not get any easier, but this is a game they could win and we are getting some extra points because of recent public perception.

For one Ole Miss just lost at Arkansas and Auburn just crush Arkansas 56-3, but that was truly a bad spot for Arkansas in my opinion.  Ole Miss also off back to back losses, and I think they really need this game to feel good about themselves.  Ole Miss pass defense is excellent at home allowing 0 passing TD’s on the year.  Sean White in 4 road games has 1 passing TD and 3 interceptions.  He’s played well, but Ole Miss pass defense is very good and should be able to keep the scoring down in this game.  Auburn is a run first team and Ole Miss struggles vs. the run, but I think they should be able to contain it better than the experts think especially since Auburn only averaged 4 yards per carry at Miss State.  I think the Ole Miss, a night game as an underdog against a ranked team is a very dangerous thing especially when you consider this team nearly upset Alabama here.

Texas +155 2.5% PLAY

Texas 3-0 home straight up and is +13 better at home.  I actually have Baylor 3 points better on a neutral field, but that’s not taking into consideration strength of schedule as Baylor is ranked 79th and Texas is ranked 25th.  Baylor is ranked #8 in the country and that’s not at all even close to being accurate.  This team lost a ton on defense and their offense really hasn’t looked that great.  Seth Russell for instance completing just 57% of his passes and has had a lower QB rating than what opponents have given up on the season in every game but 1.  He completed 43% of his passes against Kansas.  Texas not known for their defense this year, but they are much better at home and have improved since Charlie Strong took over the play calling duties.

Texas actually much better on offense than what Baylor saw previously and really that’s the difference in this game for me.  Baylor is vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball they lost a ton of talent form last year.  They have already given up 175+ yards rushing in 4 games to mediocre talent.  We have already seen signs of this defense being bad where they gave up 42 points to Iowa State, and in conference play they are allowing 49% third down conversions and 67% TD’s in the red zone.  Texas can move the ball in this one on the ground and in the air.  Everything I have been reading has supported the Texas players wanting to win and play hard for Strong.  They did the same thing last year and they seem to play their best against big time opponents.  I can see Texas winning this one by double digits.  Baylor has played 1 game in 3 weeks and should be rusty here.  Texas could really score a ton early in this game and let their pass defense take over which is ranked #4 in sack percentage.

Miami -1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I am going to take the Hurricanes as my top play this week as I really think they are getting a lot of value despite losing 3 games in a row.  They faced three teams ranked in the top 25 and should have beaten Florida State a hard game to come off of with a loss for this program, but things are trending in the right direction as Mark Richt has this team playing defense and they are clearly much improved.  They have had a much more challenging schedule than Notre Dame has and the ACC is arguably the best conference in the nation.  Notre Dame has yet to play a defense that ranks in the top 50 in rushing and passing defense, and every time they have faced a top 50 run or pass defense they have lost.  Miami ranks 32nd vs. the run and 13th vs. the pass and will give Notre Dame Issues on Saturday.

On the flip side Miami has faced three teams who had a top 50 run defense and pass defense.  5 of their 6 opponents have been ranked in the top 50 in pass defense, and Brad Kaaya, the senior QB is still putting up good numbers.  Now he gets to face Notre Dame how ranks 108th in adjusted pass defense, a team that simply can’t get to the QB they have 6 sacks on the season and are -13 in sacks compare that with Miami who is +7 and has 22 sacks on the season.  Miami also +38 in tackles for loss compared to Notre Dame who is -7 in tackles for loss.  I was shocked to see Stanford come in and win their game 2 weeks ago without Christina McCaffrey and no QB, but Stanford did it they averaged 4.40 yards per carry on this defense and got out with a win.  The next week they went home and put up 5 points against Colorado.

Offensively, Miami in adjusted offensive rankings are 58th running, and 29th passing.  Notre Dame has faced 5 teams in the top 70 in adjusted passing offense.  Taking out the NC State game because they played in a hurricane this defense has allowed 39 points per game, and none of those teams were ranked as highly as Miami, and only Texas had somewhat of a balanced attack and they put up 50 points and clearly don’t have the defense that Miami has.  On the flip side, Miami’s defense has faced a lot of top offenses, 3 of which have top 50 run and pass offenses.  Notre Dame surprisingly doesn’t have either as they rank 73rd in rushing and 78th in passing.  The only thing Notre Dame has going for them is the fact that they are coming off a bye, but Miami off extra rest here too, and Miami has played well on the road.

Cincinnati +7.5 3.3% PLAY

Both of these teams come off impressive wins, but there is certainly more value in the number with the Bearcats, a team that typically can beat anyone in this conference on a given night.  They are 2-5 ATS on the season compared to Temple who is 7-1 ATS now, and come off a cover by 21.5 points against South Florida.  I’ll take the Bearcats as they looked their best in their last game.  This also should be a team that is fired up after losing this game last year despite being +261 yards of offense as they turned the ball over 5 times.

Make no mistake about it Temple does not have the same defense and they have faced mostly an easy schedule in terms of offenses faced.  Temple is going to slow this game down and they are going to do it by running the ball 60% of the time at home, for an average of 65 total plays.  Cincinnati is very quietly a pretty solid defense ranking 49th vs. the run, and 39th in points per play allowed.  Based on that they should give up 22 points to Temple which I can easily see them covering.  The Cincinatti defense is arguably the best run defense Temple has faced all year and they need to run the ball to win.  They average 5.21 ypc in wins, and 2.44 in losses. 

Now I think the bigger key here and why I like the Bearcats so much is the fact that they only have given up 8 total rushing TD’s.  They have held opponents to 38% TD rate in the red zone which is very good.  PJ Walker, the Temple QB really not capable of beating this team with his arm.  Actually when looking at it 5 of those rushing TD’s allowed came in one game against South Florida (#4 rushing team in the nation).  Temple is not in the top 50.  Cinci’s offense put them in terrible position time after time.  Temple has only faced 2 teams in the top 50 in rushing defense and struggled to score in both.  Their opponents love to give up rushing TD’s compared with Cinci as only one team has allowed less than 10 rushing TD’s.   

When Cinci has the ball it should do good things.  Gunner Kiel is a 5 star QB who still has all the motivation in the world to play well.  He is a guy that can still get drafted believe it or not, but it was just yesterday that he was the third string QB for whatever reason.  It seems like Kiel has been around for forever, but he’s a solid option here coming off the East Carolina game where he threw for 348 yards 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s.  He’s given this Bearcats offense some light and that in combination with the Bearcats stifling run defense I believe we are in good shape for a cover if not the outright upset.

Michigan State +24.5 3.3% Play – Michigan State +1475 0.25%

On paper this looks like a mismatch, but this is the biggest game of the year for the Spartans who don’t have much to achieve but beating and spoiling the Wolverines season.  I believe we will see their best effort here at home and I would not be shocked to see an upset.  This is Michigan’s second road game of the year and the first one came against Rutgers which arguably is the worst team in football.   Michigan State was a 7 point favorite on the road last year held Michigan to 168 total yards and 10 first downs and now they are a 24.5 point underdog at home.  That’s a line movement of epic proportions of 37.5 points and I just can’t imagine there being that big of a difference.  I think all of the pressure is on Michigan who wants revenge for what happened last year, but now they are on the road getting all this hype and Michigan State players definitely want this game and I actually liked what I saw from their offensive line a week ago.

The Spartans got back to basics and ran the ball for 270 yards against Maryland.  They still have an offensive line with plenty of experience and some good options at RB.  I expect some trick plays in this game and Michigan to possibly be in a little bit of trouble.  Mark Dantonio said, “Can we win? Yeah, we can win. I firmly believe that. I know none of you do, but that's why I'm coaching.”

Connecticut +7 2.2% play

East Carolina is not top 50 in any offensive or defensive category and they rank 126th in special teams S&P.  This might be the worst defense Uconn has faced as Uconn has faced 4 teams in the top 50 in run defense.  Their road games have been extremely challenging as well facing the 3 best out of the AAC in Navy, Houston, and South Florida all on the road.  I think that prepares you for a game like this and I think Uconn can actually win this game outright.  I have these two teams even at 28-28 and even if you are giving 3 points to East Carolina we are well within in the 7 points.

IT’s not every day that Uconn gets to face a team that cannot stop the run or the pass as East Carolina ranks #109 vs. the run and #101 vs. the pass.  Uconn should be able to score points in this one and they should have a better time in the red zone considering they are a balanced offense and they have struggled, but against defenses that are either really good at stopping the run or the pass.  Est Carolina has allowed 5 of their 6 opponents to rush for more yards per carry than their season average and in some cases much more.  For instance they faced a #82 rushing attack and allowed +2.94 ypc than the opponent’s average.  They faced #114, and allowed +1.38 ypc, and against a #99 allowed +1.04YPC.  It’s a key stat because when Uconn can establish the run they should win and they have a capable QB unlike prior years in Bryant Shirreffs and receiver Noel Thomas to pick up yards.

On the flip side East Carolina will pass the ball a lot, but Uconn is at least good at slowing one part of their game plan down.  Uconn has struggled vs. the pass at times, but they have also faced some pretty good passing teams and many of those on the road.  East Carolina is not even in the top 50 in passing the ball and have had many turnovers as they are -12 on the season.  Uconn can stop the run without stacking the box which will allow them to sit back and force Phillip Nelson into mistakes.  East Carolina also just 41% TD rate in the red zone and Uconn plays the red zone really well allowing just 53%.  Uconn has a lot of advantages in this game and I would not be surprised to see them pull the upset. 

DUKE/Georgia Tech Under 51 3.3% TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Duke has had extra time to prepare for the triple option, and their offense has not played very well outside of the Notre Dame game so I think Georgia Tech keeps them under wraps as well.  Both teams are off a bye here and I think both teams defenses will be tough to score on.  Duke already handles the triple option extremely well.  It also helps that Georgia Tech is coming off back to back games scoring in the 30’s, and they are well over due to struggle a bit and play some defense.  Duke meanwhile just got done holding Louisville to a season low 24 points which was extremely impressive.  Both defenses are above average in the red zone on defense.  The Under is 10-4-1 in Duke’s last 15 games following a bye week, and they are 15-7 to the Under in their last 22 conference games and the Under is 4-0 the last 4 meetings here at Georgia Tech

Georgia Southern +6 3.3% PLAY

These two teams are very similar and I actually have this game as a 24-24 final according to my math and my algorithims tell me to take the home team here and that’s what I’ll do as Georgia Southern a very good home team. 

This is known as the “Deeper Than Hate” rivalry game, and these two used to meet when they were in the FCS and now in Sun Belt play.  Both like to run the ball far more than they pass at 62% for App State and 72% for Georgia Southern who runs the option.  Both teams are very good at stopping the run, but both offenses had success running the ball last year.  The difference in the 31-13 final was the fact that Georgia Southern only ran it 38 times at a 4.9 ypc clip, but passed 13 times and threw 2 interceptions.  Meanwhile Taylor Lamb completed 70% of his passes and threw 2 TD’s.

That will all change this year in my opinion as Lamb is simply not the same guy considering he has a completely rebuilt receiving corp.  He has just 7 TD’s to 5 interceptions and we are 7 games in.  He had 31 a year ago and 16 through 7 games a year ago.  I think Georgia Southern can get off the field in this game and they will do a better job of staying on the field as they have a 51% third down conversion percentage this year they are actually better on offense and defense on third down than Appalachian State.

There really are not a lot of differences between these two teams.  Georgia Southern is 1-6 ATS on the year so automatic line value.  They are 12-1 in their last 13 home games, and App State has to travel on the road on a short week to face an option team.  I’ll take the value as this one is up to 6 points. 

Arizona State +7.5 3.3% play

Arizona State is a very good home team and has covered their last 7 home games.  They are particularly large under dogs in this spot against Washington State, a team getting a ton of credit now, but I am really not sold on them yet and they have a completely new task going on the road this week.  Arizona State will run an up tempo offensive style with a QB that can run.  Washington State has yet to face an offense that is in the top 50 in tempo, and I believe that will give them fits.

On the flip side it’s a nice match up for the Cougars as Arizona State struggles vs. the pass, but they have 7 interceptions in their home games this season and have held opponents to a 57% red zone TD%.  Luke Falk’s last game here he threw 4 interceptions and I think Arizona State’s havoc in the front 7 can change this game in their favor.

It also helps that Arizona State’s Manny Wilkins is healthy and is facing a pass defense that is 111th in pass rush.  The last time he faced a team that could not get to the QB he put up 351 yards passing and 2 passing TD’s and his team scored 68 points.  This team has beaten Texas Tech, California and UCLA at home.  Washington State’s defense is much improved, but they have to prove they can stop a team that can run and pass the ball in an up tempo game.  They are also allowing 73.3% red zone TD’s. Arizona State is very good in the red zone and have the #5 ranked special teams.  Washington State’s kicker has been awful and I won’t be surprised if Arizona State is able to turn this team over in the red zone a couple of times. 

Colorado +8 Teaser w/ LSU -0.5 4.4% play

LSU

Should be able to run the ball in this game.  Ole Miss has really struggled to stop the run and LSU will be very fresh in their running game this week as they ran the ball only 24 times in their easy win against Southern Miss.  Ole Miss probably the best 3 loss team in the nation, but having allowed 56.34 yards per carry in conference play does not look good for them on the road in a night game against LSU.

LSU’s defensive strength is also their pass defense.  Chad Kelly has been able to perform well against top defenses, but I think this may be asking too much in a road game at night in Death Valley.  LSU could be peaking ahead to Alabama, but they have a bye in between to make sure they are not.  I expect another complete game just like we have seen in back to back weeks under Ed Orgeron who was the head coach at Ole Miss once upon a time ago.  LSU held Kelly in check last year on the road, but they lost 17-38 and certainly want revenge.  LSU turned the ball over 3 times in that game and I don’t expect that to happen.  Ole Miss lost a ton of play makers from a year ago and certainly are not the same team.  LSU’s pass defense has allowed 3 passing TD’s and 4 INT’s.  This is also a tough spot for Ole miss playing in back to back road games for the first time since 2013.

Colorado..

Stanford won last week against Notre Dame and were lucky to do so.  This Stanford team just is not very good.  We have seen what teams have done the week after getting a “big win” against Notre Dame.  Stanford’s defense is not as good and their offense is not as good with or without Christian McCaffrey who will likely play in this game.  McCaffrey is not getting as many touches and should be fresh for this game, but Buffalo’s defense is much improved since the last time these two met.

I really like what Jim Leavitt has done he has this defense playing extremely well.  In 2014 before Leavitt came over to be the defensive coordinator Colorado gave up 39 points per game, in conference play they allowed 31 TD’s and 1 INT that year.  In his first year they made a dramatic improvement allowing 27.5 points per game.  Their pass defense also improved to 19 TD’s allowed and 7 INT in conference play.  This year they are allowing 20 points per game, and their pass defense through 4 conference games is allowing 53.3% completions 6 TD’s and 5 INT’s.  Their run defense also allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The only opponents that have put up points on this defense are Michigan and Oregon who are in the top 25 for offenses and have a balanced approach.  Stanford is very much one dimensional, easy to prepare for and ranked 94th in the S&P offensive ratings. Stanford is -4 in TO margin this year and Colorado has forced a TO in 20 straight games.

On the flip side you have Stanford whose defense has started to show signs of struggling.  They struggle against top offenses that can beat you with the running and passing game and that’s what Colorado has proven that they can do.  Stanford gave up 42 points to Washington State who does not grade as high as Colorado, but does have a good offense running and passing.  Washington also scored 44 on this defense and have a good running and passing game.  Colorado ranks 27th and 1st in the S&P rankings for running and throwing.  They hung with Michigan on the road before they lost their QB Sefo Liufau, but he’s back and the senior is ready to give Stanford a tough game on the road.

East Carolina +8 2.2% play

Both teams want to throw the ball here and I feel like East Carolina has the edge with Phil Nelson and the nation’s leading receiver Zay Jones.  East Carolina has gone up against 5 top 50 pass defenses already and I think they are better than their 2-4 record suggests.  Think about who they have played so far in South Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, and South Florida.  They have done it with injury issues in the secondary, but they come into this game completely healthy which is critical against a Cinci team that typically is very strong on offense.

This year however Cinci has struggled big time they are 11th in scoring and 8th in yardage in the AAC.  Now they turn to once highly coveted QB Gunner Kiel.  I am not sure what happened to Kiel he has not been the same since he was knocked out of the game last year.  He was listed 3rd on the depth chart all year and now all of a sudden he’s getting the nod.  I just don’t think anything good will come of it and Cinci is going to have to score some points.  East Carolina has a dynamic offense that will put up points on Cincinnati’s secondary. 

East Carolina also got their heart and soul of their defense back in Demetri McGill which should be a huge addition.  East Carolina is desperate for a win and rank 1st in AAC in yardage but 9th in scoring.  They have been extremely unlucky at times with the 112th fumble recovery rate, and their red zone issues have lost them games, but now that the schedule is easing up a bit I can see the Pirates rattling off a few wins.  

Oregon State +36.5 -1.06 2.2 % play 

Oregon State has a ton of injuries including both of their QB’s, but that’s not really the strength of this team which is their RB.  Of course they are missing their top RB as well, but I they do have alternates that have run well this season.  Oregon State does a few things well that Washington have either not seen or strugged with this year.

First Oregon State runs the ball well at over 5 yards per carry they rank 22nd in the country.  This will be just the third time Washington faces an offense ranked top 70 in rushing offense.  This should slow the game down quite a bit in my opinion.  The two times Washington faced such offenses they gave up 21 and 28 points.  Arizona who does not have a particularly capable QB ran the ball for over 300 yards on Washington.

The next things is Washington has not faced a top 60 passing defense all year.  Oregon State very good against the pass, but not so good against the run.  I see Washington running the ball and getting out of this game looking ahead to their game on the road against Utah in what will be a very challenging game for this team.  36.5 points is a ton of points to work with when you consider Rutgers got 25 here to begin the season and Idaho got 36.5.  Oregon State is much improved and I think they will show it in this game.  This is also an extremely low total so taking the points in this game is even more tempting.

Navy +130 to win outright! 3 out of 5 on my confidence rating.

Navy falls into a very good situation we have been tracking since the 2015 season in the AAC. Teams with a winning record are 15-6 ATS following an ATS win by double digits returning home in their next game.

I expect a high scoring game here as both defenses are not the best at stopping what each other do.  Navy here is off an unexpected bye after their game with East Carolina was postponed.  I just think that gives them an extra edge and rest and I won’t be so concerned with the possibility of a hang over after they upset Houston the week before.  So let’s look at this match up where it counts.

Navy, of course runs the triple option that is very hard to stop.  Memphis who had a better run defense last year was unable to stop it allowing 374 yards rushing in their loss a season ago.  Memphis of course also lost their star QB and star head coach Justin Fuente.  Navy lost their pieces too, but if there is one team that’s great at rebounding and playing consistent winning football that is Navy.  So the question is can Memphis stop this rushing attack?

Before I answer that question it’s worth noting that Memphis in wins last year allowed just 983 yards rushing and 2.87 yards per carry over 9 games with 10 TD’s.  In their 4 losses they allowed 921 yards, 14 TD’s, and 4.65 yards per carry.  2016 has been no different as in their 5 wins they allowed 577 yards and 3.58 yards per carry, but in their loss they allowed 5.98 yards per carry and as many rushing TD’s 4.

The answer to the question can Memphis stop the rushing attack?  I don’t believe so.  They bring in a new defensive coordinator in Chris Ball, who was a co-defensive coordinator the last 3 years at Arizona State.  They were never that great at stopping the run nor were they seeing rushing offenses like this.  Also Memphis ranked 39th in rushing yards allowed so on paper it looks like this is a good match up for them, but they have faced just 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense.  The other 5 were 127, 77, 82, and 88 and ironically when they faced 127th ranked rushing offense they allowed 1.5 yards per carry more than their season average.  They also faced a FCS team to throw into their misleading rushing defense.  To stop a Navy attack you must create havoc, tackles for loss to set up third and long.  That’s not been something Memphis has done this year.  In fact they are 110th in front 7 havoc, and they are -11 sacks, -17 tackles for loss as a team.  Their defensive strength is forcing turnovers particularly interceptions they have 18 this year, but Navy does not turn the ball over with 6 lost all year.  We took about that turnover luck from a fumble recovery standpoint and Memphis ranking 32nd in luck, Navy actually believe it or not ranks 116th recovering just 33% of fumbles in their games.  As we know that typically goes back to the mean of 50%.

You also have to look at the fact of if Navy can run?  Navy has faced 4 top 50 rushing defenses and Uconn, who is very under rated vs. the run.  The results are great as they have averaged 1.26 ypc more than opposing rush defenses are allowing.  I take the Air Force game out because the service academies always do well stopping the run.  Army had a terrible run defense last year and held Navy in check. 

Let’s take a look at other deciding factors in this one.  Navy penalized 4.1 times less per game than Memphis.  They are roughly 10% better on third down offense.  Memphis has been very good on third down defense and both teams are very similar in the red zone on offense and defense although Navy has gotten there more, and Memphis has allowed opponents to get there more.

The bottom line is Navy was able to rattle Greg Ward.  Maybe they gave up 40 points, but they forced 2 turnovers which is huge.  I think Riley Ferguson is really going to have to play a perfect game in this one.  Navy’s defense has holes in the secondary, but Memphis is not protecting their QB. Ranking 98th in the country in protection they have turned the ball over 11 times in 6 games.  I expect that to be the deciding factor.  Give me Navy with the outright upset.

TCU +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD – buy the hook if you want, but I think TCU wins outright +210 for another 1%

I’m all over TCU and I am even comfortable with them at +6 as I think they may even get the outright upset.  Gary Paterson is 12-1 straight up, and 13-0 ATS after a bye week.  The key difference for them after a bye week is defense.  They allowed just 10 points and a 41% completion rate to West Virginia last year following their bye week in the 40-10 victory.  This TCU team is flying under the radar right now in my opinion.  West Virginia is getting far too much credit for their win against Texas Tech.  Patrick Maholmes is definitely injured and that’s a big reason why they held them to 17 points.  The week before they were lucky to beat Kansas State at home.  Now in comes another great coach and I think TCU could pull the upset.

TCU getting a ton of value here because the last memory everyone has of them is they nearly lost to Kansas.  They struggled last year against Kansas (winning 23-17) and the following week they went on the road to face Oklahoma and lost by 1 point without their star QB and WR.  The game against Kansas really does not concern me here.  TCU is the first team that West Virginia has faced with an offense that can beat you running the ball and passing the ball. Kenny Hill gets plenty of shit, but he’s got 2,142 yards passing in 6 games already and he’s also a threat to run.  West Virginia’s defense has shown vulnerabilities vs. the run this year as well as the pass.  People forget this team replaced 9 defensive starters when the season began.  They haven’t faced any dominating offenses in my opinion and their own offense is nothing to get excited about.

West Virginia’s key last year in their wins vs. losses was Skyler Howard.  In wins they had a 153 QB rating and in losses a 102 QB rating.  Howard has not impressed me he has 3 TD and 3 INT’s vs. FBS opponents this year.  He looked great against Youngstown State.  TCU can bring a pass rush like nobody else he’s seen this year.  TCU ranks 22nd in sack %, and they haven’t faced a top 60 unit.  This defense held him to 41% completion rating and 160 yards passing with a 78 QB rating (a season low).  Howard has faced some of the worst pass defenses in the nation.  TCU is better than their ranking shows, they have a good pass rush, and they have had to face some pretty elite passing offenses in Arkansas and Oklahoma whom in my opinion are both top 25 teams.  At the end of the day without factoring in strength of schedule I have this game as a 29-28 in favor for West Virginia.  I think TCU has an excellent shot at pulling the upset even though they are on the road.  They have an edge in coaching and have owned this match up and off a bye you can’t go wrong backing Gary Paterson. West Virginia often gets inflated lines after they look good and they are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a game of 450 + total yards in their previous game.

Colorado +8 Teaser w/ LSU -0.5 4.4% play

LSU

Should be able to run the ball in this game.  Ole Miss has really struggled to stop the run and LSU will be very fresh in their running game this week as they ran the ball only 24 times in their easy win against Southern Miss.  Ole Miss probably the best 3 loss team in the nation, but having allowed 56.34 yards per carry in conference play does not look good for them on the road in a night game against LSU.

LSU’s defensive strength is also their pass defense.  Chad Kelly has been able to perform well against top defenses, but I think this may be asking too much in a road game at night in Death Valley.  LSU could be peaking ahead to Alabama, but they have a bye in between to make sure they are not.  I expect another complete game just like we have seen in back to back weeks under Ed Orgeron who was the head coach at Ole Miss once upon a time ago.  LSU held Kelly in check last year on the road, but they lost 17-38 and certainly want revenge.  LSU turned the ball over 3 times in that game and I don’t expect that to happen.  Ole Miss lost a ton of play makers from a year ago and certainly are not the same team.  LSU’s pass defense has allowed 3 passing TD’s and 4 INT’s.  This is also a tough spot for Ole miss playing in back to back road games for the first time since 2013.

Colorado..

Stanford won last week against Notre Dame and were lucky to do so.  This Stanford team just is not very good.  We have seen what teams have done the week after getting a “big win” against Notre Dame.  Stanford’s defense is not as good and their offense is not as good with or without Christian McCaffrey who will likely play in this game.  McCaffrey is not getting as many touches and should be fresh for this game, but Buffalo’s defense is much improved since the last time these two met.

I really like what Jim Leavitt has done he has this defense playing extremely well.  In 2014 before Leavitt came over to be the defensive coordinator Colorado gave up 39 points per game, in conference play they allowed 31 TD’s and 1 INT that year.  In his first year they made a dramatic improvement allowing 27.5 points per game.  Their pass defense also improved to 19 TD’s allowed and 7 INT in conference play.  This year they are allowing 20 points per game, and their pass defense through 4 conference games is allowing 53.3% completions 6 TD’s and 5 INT’s.  Their run defense also allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The only opponents that have put up points on this defense are Michigan and Oregon who are in the top 25 for offenses and have a balanced approach.  Stanford is very much one dimensional, easy to prepare for and ranked 94th in the S&P offensive ratings. Stanford is -4 in TO margin this year and Colorado has forced a TO in 20 straight games.

On the flip side you have Stanford whose defense has started to show signs of struggling.  They struggle against top offenses that can beat you with the running and passing game and that’s what Colorado has proven that they can do.  Stanford gave up 42 points to Washington State who does not grade as high as Colorado, but does have a good offense running and passing.  Washington also scored 44 on this defense and have a good running and passing game.  Colorado ranks 27th and 1st in the S&P rankings for running and throwing.  They hung with Michigan on the road before they lost their QB Sefo Liufau, but he’s back and the senior is ready to give Stanford a tough game on the road.

Hawaii +17 3.3% PLAY

To me this is far too many points to be giving to Air Force.  I have thi game as a 36-27 game on neutral field and Hawaii has played extremely well since switching the offense over to Dru Brown in the last 2.5 games.  He has completed 63.9% of his passes for 6 TD and 1 INT.  The running game with Brown has also gotten better averaging 239 yards per game over their last 3 games.  Overall Hawaii is much improved this season.  They were 6.5 point under dogs at home last year and lost 58-7 to Air Force.  I think Air Force is a bit down this year and I think Hawaii is a bit better.  I have this game being off by 6 points and that’s enough for me to be a buyer on the Warriors.

It’s also worth noting that Air Force who is 80th in plays per game, Hawaii 109th in plays per game should keep the total down giving us even better value on the large dog.  Air Force has been really good on defense, but Hawaii is top 50 in points per play.  Air Force has given up 80 points combined in their last two games.  Hawaii can pick up yards in the passing game and the running game.  Air force will get their yardage there is no doubt about it, but I like a couple of x factors in this game.

Air Force has not been as good in the red zone.  Just 62.5% red zone TD%, and 75% allowed on defense compare that with Hawaii who comes in at 78%, and 57% on defense.  Both teams have had similar strength of schedules although I would argue Hawaii’s has been much more challenging with Arizona, California, and Michigan along with tough traveling spots.  Air Force played Navy and that’s about it.  Oh, Air Force who is -1 TO margin has been extremely lucky too recovering 73% of fumbles in games played.  That can’t possibly continue. 

Oregon +102 2.5% PLAY

Listen both of these teams are bad on defense and I think Oregon’s head coach is fired at the end of the year.  However when you really look at who they have played Oregon has faced the far tougher schedule.  They have played arguably the top 3 teams in the PAC 12 + one of the top teams in the Big Ten.  California has played Hawaii, they gave up a ton of points and yards to Oregon State.  I think Oregon will be able to run the ball like crazy here tonight and they have the best player on the field in Royce Freeman.  Oregon must continue to hand the ball off in my opinion they are not running it enough we will see if that changes.

Oregon’s top 4 opponents are all in the top 50 in offense and defense.  Meaning they are all balanced teams.  That’s what Oregon has had to contest with.  Cal has faced just 1 team in the top 50 in defense and they have not faced the level of competition of offenses that Oregon has.  Some of the stats are misleading for that reason.

The bottom line is Cal is 124th s. the run, and Oregon is 8th running the ball and that’s what you need in order to win on the road.  Oregon is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off a bye, and 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 in October.  They lost huge last time out against Washington, but Stanford got crushed by Washington too.  Oregon makes a switch at QB, but that does not concern me against Cal.  Cal has some key injuries on both side of the ball including their between the tackles RB Vic Enwere being out which could hurt them in the red zone.  Cal already struggling to scored TD’s down there with a 56% TD rate compare that with Oregon’s 80.77% rate and there is your ball game.

Davis Webb, their QB and Chad Hansen their top WR also got hurt in their last game they will play tonight, but I’d rather back a team in a close game that is healthier than this.  They are also hurt up the middle on defense and lack depth at LB.  They are missing two DT’s and two Safeties.  We will see I may have to eat my own words, but I think there is a lot of line value with Oregon here against Cal, a team that was not supposed to be good this year.  Public perception is that they are good because they are putting up a ton of points, but they just lost to Oregon State. 

BYU +7 3.3% PLAY

I like the Cougars here tonight in what should be a very competitive game.  I think the home field advantage for Boise is not as strong as it used to be and they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.  BYU 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. the Mountain West.  BYU has had a very challenging schedule and are looking forward to their bye, but they do have an extra day of rest and prep. Compared to Boise State who played Saturday.

Actually that’s really big because Boise State relies heavily on running back Jeremy McNichols and he just carried the ball 40 times on Saturday.  The last time he carried the ball 30+ times he struggled against New Mexico’s run defense.  I do see Boise chucking the ball around a lot tonight, but BYU’s pass defense has been very good this year with an interception in every game.  Brett Rypien has played well, but the two times he faced good defenses in the top 30 he threw 2 TD’s to 3 INT’s.  Last year against BYU he had 1 TD and 3 INT’s.  The strength of schedule is a key factor here when you look at the fact that Boise has not faced a tough schedule by any means 72nd ranking compared to 24th.

BYU’s key here is to run the ball with Jamal Williams come up with 3rd and short and they will wear down opposing defenses.  Their offensive line has gained an average 20lbs in average weight since last year and it’s definitely showing in their running style.  In 4th quarters and beyond they are +45 points while Boise has really struggled late in games.  So the question is can BYU run the ball?  I think they can when looking at Boise’s 45th ranking in run defense they just got done allowing 566 yards rushing in their last 2 games.  Jamal Williams and the occasional run by Taysom Hill will be hard for them to stop.  This is a completely different team than last year that Boise State is facing.  Thus harder to prepare for.  BYU is bigger and stronger on both sides of the line and I think the biggest difference is the strength of this running game.

The concern for me here is BYU’s secondary, but Boise also has holes in their secondary and I think it helps that Boise State won’t have as much balance with McNichols not able to run the ball 30+ times in this game.  BYU is also very good at stopping the run since they got their star LB back and they have been able to force turnovers in the passing game.  BYU also has an edge on special teams ranking 27th compared to Boise who ranks 90th.  That could be worth a few points in tonight’s game.  BYU in their 3 losses to UCLA, Utah, and West Virginia have lost by a combined score of 7 points.  That tells me this coaching staff is very good they are able to look at an opposing team’s strengths and weaknesses and come up with a very good game plan.  They have faced a lot of good teams this year who vary in play style.  I don’t think Boise State scares them and I think they could come out of this with an upset win.

6 Point Teaser - Western Kentucky +8.5 / Temple +10 3.3% play

Western Kentucky +8.5

This team still has a lot to prove, but overall I see them pretty even with Middle Tennessee.  Both of these teams are very very similar as the both love to pass the ball, and both defenses struggle to stop the pass.  Mike White is a bit more accurate and has better receiving weapons than Stockstill from Middle Tennessee.  However, the pass defense from Middle Tennessee is a bit better, but certainly not by much.  As far as balance goes I have Middle Tennessee worse in run defense and rushing offense while Western Kentucky has proven they can do both and they have certainly done all of this with a tougher schedule having to play Alabama.  In their two common opponent games the results were very very similar from a yards per play perspective.  Overall when I look at everything my math has this game 32-33 in favor of Middle Tennessee.  Both teams with extra time to prepare here and I’ll go with the better QB with the better weapons.  Mike White has two senior WR’s in Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris who will play at the next level.  Brent Stockstill is passing the ball to freshman and sophomore wide receivers along with his RB. 

Temple +10

At 10 points I believe we are getting very good line value here.  Temple is as healthy as they have been all year and have had some extra time to prepare for this one.  They do have a challenge stopping Central Florida’s rushing attack, but this is a team that likes to create havoc in the front 7 and I think they can get off the field on third down.  Temple also extremely misleading final in their last game against Memphis where they outgained them by 204 yards with 531 total yards of offense.  Central Florida’s pass defense definitely has holes as we saw against East Carolina and Michigan.

Central Florida is much improved this year, but this line opened as a pk and has moved to 4.  I will take the extra value moving this to 10 points giving us nearly 10 points of value based on where the oddsmakers opened the line.  Both teams very good in red zone defense.  Temple is breaking in a new kicker which would normally make me worried, but Matt Rhule said he has an NFL leg.  Temple will slow this game down and grind it out while Central Florida will try to play quick, but I believe Temple has the ability to disrupt that rhythm and will do so here today.

Arkansas +7.5 3.3% play 

I have backed Arkansas against Alabama and Texas A&M, two similar teams in caliber to Ole Miss.  We lost both of those games easily, but watching both of them you felt like Arkansas was a very good team.  Their 8 turnovers in key situations were the reasons they lost by double digits.  The pass rush from Alabama and Texas A&M is elite and that's what created issues for Austin Allen.  Allen won't have that problem here today against Ole Miss ranked 85th in pass rush.  Actually 21 points came off turnovers for Arkansas in the Alabama game and against the Aggies they had several opportunities in the red zone where they came away with nothing.  Actually 7 trips into the red zone and they came away with 24 points.

Ole Miss obviously wants this game for what happened to them losing in OT last year, but that's easier said than done.  First of all this is their first road game and the things that have hurt Arkansas in the first two games are not strengths of Ole Miss who ranks 85th in pass rush.  They have 9 sacks on the year, their red zone defense is not elite allowing 63.64% TD's.  Alabama was allowing 30%, Aggies at 42.31%.  They also have to get off the field on third down.  Ole Miss just 42% conversions on third down.  They have struggled against teams that can run the ball which really isn't what Ole Miss wants to do.  I think Arkansas can win the turnover battle here as well as Ole Miss has forced just 8 turnovers and are -4 on the road which was a neutral site game against Florida State.  This is a true road game and Arkansas wants this game in the worst way.

Nebraska -3 5.5% play

Thanks for the line movement here.  Mike Riley following a bye week during the regular season going back to 2003 with Oregon State is 16-8 ATS and has had many major upsets as a big dog.  He’s not an underdog in this game, but I really don’t see or understand the spread in this game.  Indiana played well at Ohio State, but that win over Michigan State at home looks a lot worse after Michigan State got trucked by BYU last week in embarrassing fashion.  I have this game at 31-22 in favor of Nebraska and that does not factor in the match up advantages and extra preparation they have going into this game.

Both teams wants to establish the run and on the surface it looks like Indiana is better at stopping the run where Nebraska has had troubles, but in reality that’s not true.  Nebraska’s game against Oregon has really inflated some of their defensive rankings.  Nebraska has held everyone else in check who doesn’t have a running QB.  As Oregon’s QB Dakota Prukop had 20 rushes for 97 yards in that game.  Indiana’s Richard Lagow has -31 yards on the season.  Nebraska’s pass defense is also very solid so far this year 3TD’s and 9 interceptions.

For Nebraska I think they can run the ball in this game.  Armstrong is having a very good year passing the ball and not turning it over like he has in the past and he’s got 14 total touch downs with 2 interceptions.  5 of those TD’s have come on the ground has he has 293 yards rushing.  That can be a real problem for Indiana’s defense which struggled against JT Barret a week ago who had 137 yards rushing against them.  Armstrong in reality is very similar to Barret in a lot of ways, but probably has a bigger arm.  Nebraska probably a little more aggressive in down the field passes which should open things up for the Huskers in this one.

Nebraska advantage in the turnover margin which is something I definitely look at despite the bad luck we have had.  Indiana has been lucky recovering fumbles at 61.5%, but that certainly is due to change.  Their QB Lagow has already thrown 7 interceptions and I can’t see how Nebraska won’t have 1 or 2 in this game.  They are a ball hawking defense that has had time to study tendencies of this QB and offense.  Nebraska also has advantages in 3rd down offense and defense, and red zone offense and defense, penalties, net tackles for loss at +7 compared to -7, and sacks +8 to -1.  Indiana also has not been great with their place kicker.  All in all Nebraska a ton to play for here.  Indiana getting too much credit for how they beat Michigan State and played within the number against Ohio State.  Nebraska has outscored opponents 78-6 in the 4th quarter.  I expect them to get off to a fast start in this game off the bye as Indiana has played 3 physical teams in a row.

North Carolina +7.5 1.1% Free Play (6-1 ATS on Free Plays This year)

This seems like a value spot for the Tarheels who looked bad last week.  The weather had a lot to do with it also I have felt since the Tennessee game that Virginia Tech was under rated.  We had the Hokies as our biggest play last weekend and it easily cashed.  It was just a bad match up.  What I like this week is Mitch Tribusky should bounce back against Miami's secondary which has yet to be tested.

Miami's secondary has faced passing offenses ranked 122, 72, 74, 46th which just simply does not impress me.  Francois was able to carve up this secondary in the second half and I think Tribusky and his receiving weapons will have a great game here.

With that said this game should feature limited possessions when you factor in Miami is dead last with 59 plays per game and North Carolina is 115th.  I do think Miami is a better team overall, but there simply won't be enough plays to showcase this.  Miami also will keep it on the ground in my opinion keeping this game down in scoring.  I have the game at 23-28 in favor of Miami, but I factor in the extra points we get for the final last week for North Carolina.  Miami off their loss to Florida State has typically struggled.  

They lost in devastating fashion on a missed extra point.  Despite leading 13-0 int hat game they were actually out gained 408 to 276 yards.  Florida State's defense which was unable to make second half adjustments against a ton of teams was able to do so in the second half a week ago against Miami.  There is just too much value here with the points and the dog is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. 

6 Point Teaser - Western Kentucky +8.5 / Temple +10 3.3% play

Western Kentucky +8.5

This team still has a lot to prove, but overall I see them pretty even with Middle Tennessee.  Both of these teams are very very similar as the both love to pass the ball, and both defenses struggle to stop the pass.  Mike White is a bit more accurate and has better receiving weapons than Stockstill from Middle Tennessee.  However, the pass defense from Middle Tennessee is a bit better, but certainly not by much.  As far as balance goes I have Middle Tennessee worse in run defense and rushing offense while Western Kentucky has proven they can do both and they have certainly done all of this with a tougher schedule having to play Alabama.  In their two common opponent games the results were very very similar from a yards per play perspective.  Overall when I look at everything my math has this game 32-33 in favor of Middle Tennessee.  Both teams with extra time to prepare here and I’ll go with the better QB with the better weapons.  Mike White has two senior WR’s in Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris who will play at the next level.  Brent Stockstill is passing the ball to freshman and sophomore wide receivers along with his RB. 

Temple +10

At 10 points I believe we are getting very good line value here.  Temple is as healthy as they have been all year and have had some extra time to prepare for this one.  They do have a challenge stopping Central Florida’s rushing attack, but this is a team that likes to create havoc in the front 7 and I think they can get off the field on third down.  Temple also extremely misleading final in their last game against Memphis where they outgained them by 204 yards with 531 total yards of offense.  Central Florida’s pass defense definitely has holes as we saw against East Carolina and Michigan.

Central Florida is much improved this year, but this line opened as a pk and has moved to 4.  I will take the extra value moving this to 10 points giving us nearly 10 points of value based on where the oddsmakers opened the line.  Both teams very good in red zone defense.  Temple is breaking in a new kicker which would normally make me worried, but Matt Rhule said he has an NFL leg.  Temple will slow this game down and grind it out while Central Florida will try to play quick, but I believe Temple has the ability to disrupt that rhythm and will do so here today.

Kansas State +10.5 2.2%

I like Kansas State here as I think they are the better overall team and laying double digits to an Oklahoma team that continues to get credit for whatever reason.  They have their work cut out against Kansas State’s defense as this is the third time they are facing a top 25 defense.  The other two times they scored 23 and 24 points and lost both games.  I actually have this game more like Oklahoma -4.5 here.

Bill Snyder an excellent coach and when his team is a double digit road dog they are 8-0 ATS in their last 8.  A lot of people are going to remember the 55-0 loss last year, but these are two different teams in my opinion at this point.  Kansas State is a much better team as we have already seen this year.  They have a QB that can run it and that takes a lot of pressure off this offense.  That’s something they did not have a year ago and now Jesse Ertz is playing very well rushing over 5 yards per carry.  It’s also worth noting that Oklahoma is -6 turnover margin while Kansas State really protects the ball and is +6 on the season.

Mississippi State +7.5 3.3% PLAY

I faded BYU last week, and I backed Mississippi State last week and lost both games, but I feel good about the value we are getting in this match up.  First of all BYU ran all over Michigan State at least that is what the headlines say and now everyone knows about Jamal Williams, but this is still a one dimensional offense that should not be laying over a TD at home.  Michigan State has been decimated by injuries and I was naive to think Mark Dantonio would have answers a week ago for all of that.  Miss State on the other hand ran into an Auburn team obviously that has the talent to contend for a national title, and it seems like it may be coming together for them especially with their defensive talent.  BYU has had all kinds of issues on defense and what really makes me like this match up is they will give up some points here.

BYU has not faced a running QB all year.  They missed out on Arizona's Dawkins.  Fitzgerald also an under rated passer to this point in my opinion and I think he will connect on some passes to Fred Ross that help put them in position to steal one here.  They certainly need it if they want to go to a bowl game.  There is also a huge difference in Michigan State trying to run the ball and Miss State who ranks 23rd in yards per carry while the Spartans rank 83rd.  BYU has faced some bad running offenses along the way and have given up over 4 yards per carry to 4 of 6 of them.  The last time they came off a road game they lost to UCLA despite holding them to 50 yards rushing.  Their offense was not the same rushing for just 23 yards in that game.

Speaking of rushing the ball that's the key to BYU's one dimensional offense behind RB Jamal Williams who is a star.  Taysom Hill is no longer the same guy and Ty Detmer does not want him running if they can help it, but this team is very different form a few years ago.  They no longer run tempo and they are establishing an identity of a run first offense.  Their 4 home games this season have been decided by 10 points in total.  They play a lot of close games.  It just so happens they ran away with the game against Michigan State last week.  I don't see that happening here against Miss state, who you could argue has the best run defense they have faced all year.  Miss State ranks 32nd in yards per carry allowed.  They have had weak moments, but when they faced good running teams like LSU they held them on the road 1.66 yards below their season average.  Auburn sort of grinded it away on them but they still held Auburn .73 yards under their season average.  BYU has faced many bad run defenses this year and were lucky enough to face Michigan State without a lot of their defense.  I just think we are getting too much value in this game with teams looking like they are going in opposite directions.  

I think Miss State steps up and has themselves in position to win this game late with the ball in Nick Fitzgeralds hands.  It also gives me confidence that they have turned the ball over just 6 times this year.  They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC foe. 

South Carolina +7 5.5 %NCAAF POD

This game takes place on Sunday and will be a top play for me.  I really like South Carolina after being on Georgia a week ago at home against Tennessee as our top play.  Georgia struggled big time on the road this year beating Missouri luckily, and getting blown out at Ole Miss.  Now their routines are a bit messed up because of the schedule change and they are coming off a devastating season changing loss to Tennessee where their were plenty of mental break downs.  Bettors look at that score and see Georgia being competitive against a top 10 team, but Tennessee was decimated by injuries on their defense and benched their best RB in that game. 

I’m also not impressed with how Kirby Smart handled that game in the 4th quarter.  Not that Will Muschamp is a great coach or anything, but at least I know he’s going to have his team defensively prepared.  I’ll back a solid defense any day of the week at home against an offense that does not blow you away and you are giving me 7 points. 

I also really do not understand the notion that Georgia will dominate in the trenches as I have read by some Georgia bloggers or Georgia fans.  They can’t protect their QB ranking 105th in protection rate, and they are 114th at getting to the QB.  The offensive line has really struggled this season.  I get Nick Chubb is coming back, but he’s not 100%, and the run defenses this team has faced have been awful.  They’ve faced an FCS opponent, 107th, 93rd, 104th, and then Tennessee who ranks 43rd in run defense, but was missing 2 LB’s and their best player in the secondary.  On the flip side South Carolina has struggled at times on defense, but have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses for an average rank of 54.4.  I thought they did a pretty good job against A&M who ranks 2nd in YPC holding them under their season average and they have a running QB who had 84 yards rushing.  The Gamecocks certainly do not need to worry about Jacob Eason taking off and running here.

On the flip side Georgia has not stopped the run they rank 73rd so where is the advantage?  Especially when you consider they have faced an average rushing offense ranked 64.75 + an FCS foe.  That’s much higher than the strength of schedule South Carolina faced of 54.4.  South Carolina will mix in two QB’s in this one and I think they can run the ball better than they have going up against this defense.  So far they have faced 2 top 50 running defenses and that has been the reason they have struggled to run the ball at times.  Being at home against a run defense that has holes should allow South Carolina to run.  After all they have faced 5 FBS opponents with an average run defense of 63.2 compared to Georgia’s 86.75.

Flip over to the passing game and there is no doubt Georgia has the edge in terms of talent.  Jacob Eason could be a star in this league, but they certainly do not trust him and he is prone to make mistakes.  South Carolina has a better pass defense than Georgia to this point.  Allowing 4 passing TD’s and 5 Interceptions and just 5.9 yards per attempt.  South Carolina should take some deep shots if they are smart as Georgia has had all kinds of mental break downs in their secondary.  The Gamecocks get back 2 WR that were out last week in Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards to play critical roles.  South Carolina should also have the time to throw and when they have SR. QB Perry Orth in there I give them a small edge. 

X-factor if you want to call it that.  South Carolina is very tough to score on in the red zone.  Allowing 38% TD rate when teams get there compared to Georgia’s 70%.  I think Georgia will have a hard time scoring points to be honest and they don’t trust their kicker who is 4-9 this year.  It was the reason we almost lost ATS last week. 

Arkansas +14 2.2% Play

We are 5-1 ATS on free selections this year.

I like the Razorbacks as they were my POD a couple weeks ago against Texas A&M and really looked good early in that game.  Now going back home to face Alabama they have an exciting shot to shock the college football world.  I would not be shocked if they pull it off to be honest, because this team has played very well against Alabama the last two years under Bielema.  The one thing keeping this from a premium selection is the run defense of Arkansas this year has had some issues, but the offense is going to be what keeps them in this game anyway.

Austin Allen has been great this year 12 TD’s and 2 INT’s they have size and athleticism at WR and TE.  They get Keon Hatcher back who left the A&M game which was a huge key in my opinion.  Arkansas will try to run the ball and slow this game down big time which honestly gives tremendous value to a 14 point home dog with limited possessions and Arkansas is a team that’s not really built to come back with their pass protection, but I think they will be a bit better at home if they get down big in this game I would be surprised.  Defensively the last two years they have held Alabama to 66 yards and 134 yards rushing.  Alabama has shown issues running the ball at time this year against Western Kentucky and Kentucky with less than 200 yards.  If Arkansas can hold them under 150 yards rushing like they have the last two years.  They will win this game outright!

Alabama has never laid double digits on the road against a ranked opponent under Nick Saban.  The average spread is around 4.5 points typically with an average win of 8 points so I really like the value we get here.  Also Arkansas off a game where their offense looked in synch scoring 42+ points albeit against Alcorn State.  Arkansas 40-20 ATS in their last 60 following a 42+ point effort on offense in their previous game.  Take the Razorbacks here!

Kansas State -1.5 Teaser with Stanford -1  2.2% Teaser

I like Kansas State this week for a few different reasons.  For one they blew a 16-3 lead at West Virginia a week ago.  Bill Snyder, a legendary head coach is 15-2-1 ATS off a loss and going back home will be just what he needs.  They also lost last year against Texas Tech and the previous 4 match ups they went 4-0 ATS against Texas Tech covering the spread by 19 points per game.  Kansas State is strong again on defense this year and have certainly been tested with two challenging road games against Stanford and West Virginia where the defense played very well.  Now back at home Kansas State can play the game they want, but will have their hands full against a Texas Tech team that loves to put points up.

Texas Tech however without their star  QB likely who has a bad shoulder not good for a team that passes 63% of the time.  Nick Shimonek comes in and has been great, but that was against Kansas and Stephen F Austin.  Kansas State is allowing less than 30% conversions on third downs and has only allowed 2 passing TD’s all year.  Kansas State also the type of team that needs to be able to run the ball and control the game to win.  That’s exactly what they’ll be able to do here.  Texas Tech gave up 562 yards rushing and 10 rushing TD’s to average opponents in Arizona State (80th in rushing ypc), and LA Tech, a team that prefers to pass the ball.  This is a different Kansas State team than last year for Snyder and they are 100% healthy coming into this game.  Last year Snyder did not have as many juco guys and a very young team this year he gets a couple key guys and I think the offense is much improved in the backfield. The transfer Byron Pringle also adding a deep threat to the passing game.

Stanford -1 – We are getting 5.5 points already in the line move and now I’ll grab another 6 points with outstanding value.  Washington State has obviously looked great this year and gave Stanford some issues last year nearly pulling the upset, but that was at home.  Stanford has an extra day to prepare for this one which should be huge.  They come off the huge loss against Washington and are 13-1 since 2010 when coming off a loss 8-1 ATS off a straight up loss the last 4 seasons alone.

Stanford was dominated at the line of scrimmage last week and managed 0.97 yards per carry despite 30 carries they had 29 yards.  We all know the key here for Stanford they need to run the ball. At Washington State a year ago they had no trouble with 226 yards on 40 carries for a 5.65 ypc.  Washington State allowed Oregon to run for 5.78 ypc, and I think Washington State will have to score TD’s in the red zone to win this game.  I don’t think they can do it.  Stanford held them to 33% last year, and this year they held both USC and Kansas State, and UCLA to 33%. 

Under 52 Vanderbilt/Kentucky 3.3% play

We have a ton of line value in this one I think on the under with two underperforming offenses who like to run the ball and rank among the slowest paced offenses in the country.  These teams play even more vanilla in conference play especially this year, but Kentucky 121st in pace compared to Vanderbilt who is 100th in pace.  Both like to run the ball 56% of the time so we are looking at limited possessions for two very bad offenses that haven’t scored more than 17 points in 5 conference games combined.  Actually Vanderbilt is under the total 51-23-1 in their last 75 conference games, but this is a high total because of the high scoring games these two teams have played in non-conference action.  Vanderbilt 61 vs. Western Kentucky, 71 vs. MTSU and Kentucky 104 vs. New Mexico State, and 69 vs. Southern Miss.  Three of those 4 teams are in the top 40 in pace, and the team that’s not is Western Kentucky who loves to throw the ball a ton.  Actually 3 of those 4 teams were in the top 25 in passing play %.  That’s not the fact here with Kentucky 61.83% run, Vanderbilt 56%, and they are two of the slowest teams in pace as we mentioned.  Also conference game here both coaches need a win to get off the hot seat so I don’t see them doing anything crazy in this game.

Texas A&M -1 / Michigan State pk 4.4% Teaser

You may want to test your sportsbook here.  Mine gave me better odds on parlaying the money line for these two games.

Let’s start with Texas A&M as many of you know I have not been high on Tennessee.  Overall I have great respect for what Josh Dobbs is doing here, but this team and the coaching staff is overrated and is extremely lucky to be 5-0 at this point.  It’s not even just the come backs or the hail mary’s, but the fact that they have recovered 76% of the fumbles in their games.  There have been a lot of them too.  We saw that stat regress to the mean last Saturday in our POD cover on Georgia +3.5!  Josh Dobbs said after the game that he felt everything in that game.  I’m sensing a huge hangover spot for the Volunteers with Alabama on deck.

I’m not just relying on luck here.  I think A&M has a very strong home field advantage.  The SEC East is not nearly as strong as the West right now.  A&M seemed to have been resting guys last week holding 3 offensive starters out for their game at South Carolina.  That game very misleading when you take out 3 offensive starters.  Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones and OT Jermane Eluemunor all should play this week.  I’d be shocked if they didn’t.  The same should be true for Myles Garret on the defensive side of the ball.  Tennessee has their own issues missing their best defensive player in Cameron Sutton out until November.  Reeves-Maybin and Kirkland also questionable here.  It’s really showed because anytime a team passes on this defense they are successful.  From Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia at times.  They have also shown weaknesses vs. the run in their first road game against Georgia.  They will definitely have issues against A&M as they are facing the most balanced offense all year. 

A&M will throw and pass and they do both very well.  Behind Trevor Knight the offense has been very good.  Tennessee has faced the following offenses from a YPP perspective – 82nd, 38th, 94th, 64th, and 90th.  A&M is 24th and should get up early in this game.  If that happens the pass rush of A&M will take this game over especially at home.  Tennessee already 84th at protecting Dobbs who has done a great job this year, but I expect the miracles to end this week.

Michigan State – Okay the Spartans had their own issues last week as they ruined our run on teasers.  We are now 24-6 on teasers since the 2014 season.  I’m very confident that they rebound here against BYU.  Mark Dantonio is 14-3 since 2010 following a SU loss.  I think this game is a bit of a mismatch for BYU personally.  I like the fact they put up 55 points on Toledo as Jamal Williams looked amazing in that game.  Michigan State has some holes to plug on the defensive line and Malike McDowell will miss the first half, but they know how to stop the run.  They are 17th vs. the run this season.  BYU has faced running defenses ranked 76th, 74th, 86th, 71st, and 101st.  This is a step up in class on the road against a Michigan State team that has to be a bit angry here.  The good news is they can stack the box and play man to man on the outside, because Tasom Hill can’t pass. He’s completing 59.6% of his passes, but for just 6.5 yards per attempt.  He had a nice deep pass last week to start the game, but other than that he’s mostly inaccurate down the field.  That should give Dantonio plenty of confidence to stack the box and get three and outs.

On the flip side I actually like Michigan State’s offense here.  BYU made Logan Woodside look like the next Tom Brady a week ago.  They rank 100th in yards per play allowed and 104th in opposing QB rating.  Tyler O’Connor getting a lot of crap this week and the media is asking his head coach if they are going to replace him.  Dantonio says no, and I agree as I have seen the good O’connor.  The good news is he knows this offense, he’s a senior.  He’s playing behind a veteran offensive line, and he’s got two capable running backs.  The receivers are only getting better in RJ Shelton and Donnie Corley.  Corley is looking like a legit future star in this league.  O’Connor also went up against some very tough pass defenses.  Wisconsin ranks 19th in opposing QB rating, and Indiana also checks in at 31st.  BYU has actually been worse than Notre Dame which is hard to believe. 

Texas A&M -1 / Michigan State pk 4.4% Teaser

You may want to test your sportsbook here.  Mine gave me better odds on parlaying the money line for these two games.

Let’s start with Texas A&M as many of you know I have not been high on Tennessee.  Overall I have great respect for what Josh Dobbs is doing here, but this team and the coaching staff is overrated and is extremely lucky to be 5-0 at this point.  It’s not even just the come backs or the hail mary’s, but the fact that they have recovered 76% of the fumbles in their games.  There have been a lot of them too.  We saw that stat regress to the mean last Saturday in our POD cover on Georgia +3.5!  Josh Dobbs said after the game that he felt everything in that game.  I’m sensing a huge hangover spot for the Volunteers with Alabama on deck.

I’m not just relying on luck here.  I think A&M has a very strong home field advantage.  The SEC East is not nearly as strong as the West right now.  A&M seemed to have been resting guys last week holding 3 offensive starters out for their game at South Carolina.  That game very misleading when you take out 3 offensive starters.  Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones and OT Jermane Eluemunor all should play this week.  I’d be shocked if they didn’t.  The same should be true for Myles Garret on the defensive side of the ball.  Tennessee has their own issues missing their best defensive player in Cameron Sutton out until November.  Reeves-Maybin and Kirkland also questionable here.  It’s really showed because anytime a team passes on this defense they are successful.  From Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia at times.  They have also shown weaknesses vs. the run in their first road game against Georgia.  They will definitely have issues against A&M as they are facing the most balanced offense all year. 

A&M will throw and pass and they do both very well.  Behind Trevor Knight the offense has been very good.  Tennessee has faced the following offenses from a YPP perspective – 82nd, 38th, 94th, 64th, and 90th.  A&M is 24th and should get up early in this game.  If that happens the pass rush of A&M will take this game over especially at home.  Tennessee already 84th at protecting Dobbs who has done a great job this year, but I expect the miracles to end this week.

Michigan State – Okay the Spartans had their own issues last week as they ruined our run on teasers.  We are now 24-6 on teasers since the 2014 season.  I’m very confident that they rebound here against BYU.  Mark Dantonio is 14-3 since 2010 following a SU loss.  I think this game is a bit of a mismatch for BYU personally.  I like the fact they put up 55 points on Toledo as Jamal Williams looked amazing in that game.  Michigan State has some holes to plug on the defensive line and Malike McDowell will miss the first half, but they know how to stop the run.  They are 17th vs. the run this season.  BYU has faced running defenses ranked 76th, 74th, 86th, 71st, and 101st.  This is a step up in class on the road against a Michigan State team that has to be a bit angry here.  The good news is they can stack the box and play man to man on the outside, because Tasom Hill can’t pass. He’s completing 59.6% of his passes, but for just 6.5 yards per attempt.  He had a nice deep pass last week to start the game, but other than that he’s mostly inaccurate down the field.  That should give Dantonio plenty of confidence to stack the box and get three and outs.

On the flip side I actually like Michigan State’s offense here.  BYU made Logan Woodside look like the next Tom Brady a week ago.  They rank 100th in yards per play allowed and 104th in opposing QB rating.  Tyler O’Connor getting a lot of crap this week and the media is asking his head coach if they are going to replace him.  Dantonio says no, and I agree as I have seen the good O’connor.  The good news is he knows this offense, he’s a senior.  He’s playing behind a veteran offensive line, and he’s got two capable running backs.  The receivers are only getting better in RJ Shelton and Donnie Corley.  Corley is looking like a legit future star in this league.  O’Connor also went up against some very tough pass defenses.  Wisconsin ranks 19th in opposing QB rating, and Indiana also checks in at 31st.  BYU has actually been worse than Notre Dame which is hard to believe.