Cappers Sports Picks

Alabama +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

First off lets address the "sharp" vs. "public joe," because it does appear that 60% of the tickets are on Bama, and just 40% of the money.  I think many are number grabbers pointing to the fact that, hey Georgia was -6.5 on a neutral in the SEC Championship, and now they are -3 or even -2.5 in places.  The look ahead was actually 3.5 for that game, but Alabama struggled with Auburn and we get 3 points of line movement.  If anything this is great news for the Alabama side, because there is no rat poison for NIck Saban's players to feel overly confident even though they just beat this team by double digits.  It only helps that many of the radio and guys who say they are sharp are also on Georgia here.  Many of those guys that are said to be sharp, are not transparent on their records and don't win long term.  

Some other concerns here are the fact that Menchie is out for Alabama, and while that's a big loss, they replace him with another 5 star WR that has more talent in Ja"Corey Brooks who had 4 catches, 66 yards and a TD vs. Cincinnati.  There are some bumps and bruises on the right side of the offensive line, but those are being hush hush, and I think there won't be an issue.  Bryce Young can't play out of his mind again, but I think you have to factor in Brian Robinson is healthy again, and wasn't for the SEC Championship.  Jameson Williams is a difference maker and the main reason Alabama struggled vs. Auburn.  We saw the difference with him in the game, and I'm sure Georgia makes adjustments to take him out of the game, but that opens things up for Bolden, Billingsley, and Brooks and others in this passing game.

Georgia's offense in recent match ups has come out throwing on Alabama, mainly bc that seems to be the weakness of the defense, and it is again this year.  You can't ignore that Stetson Bennett has played better agaisnt Alabama in his last outing, but still he threw 2 interceptions, and I still question now that Alabama is able to take that game and make adjustments.  Honestly when we take out the two Alabama games he has had 13 opponents he's gone up against and they have had an average 73 ypp defense, and those teams who averaged 73rd rank ypp went against an opponent average of 59.3 ypp offense.  He's really only gone up against a total of 4 top 40 defenses including the two times against Alabama.  He struggled this year against Florida who ranked 39th in ypp, and he had a great game against Michigan, but they had extra month to prepare, and lets be honest Michigan was not the 8th ranked defense, they played an easy schedule of offenses averaging 73.5 in ypp.  Alabama ranks 7th, and their opponent average ypp offense is 51.  In my opinion Alabama's defense is totally getting disrespected with all the talk on Georgia's defense, which has flaws.  Their secondary does not have the speed to keep up with Alabama's receivers, and Alabama with their hurry up can take the defensive line out of the game.  It's really up to Stetson Bennett in this game, and can he make adjustments again to make his game better?  I just don't think the talent is there for him to pull something we haven't seen before, and going up against Nick Saban who will make his own adjustments from the last game.

Adjustments, and psychological advantage on the Alabama side. You really can't argue that.  2017 Georgia played Alabama in the National Championship game and led 13-0 at the half, but then adjustments and Saban went to a backup QB, and they outscored Georgia 26-10 to win in OT.  In fact Alabama has outscored Georgia in the second half 85-24 in the last 4 meetings including the 2017 game.  They trailed in 3 of the 4 in the first half 75-58.  So if we consider this second game of the season like a second half, where both teams have limited time to review and make adjustments, history tells us that Alabama is going to have the advantage, and I think that advantage is on their defense which is held Georgia to 6ppg in the second half of games.  Stetson Bennett could prove me wrong, but until I see it there is only one play here and it's on Alabama as a dog.

Under 53.5 2% play 

Ole Miss -1.5 3.3% play

I love the fact that Matt Corral will play in this game, and I love that Ole Miss will be going for their 11th win for the first time in program history.  Baylor has had a remarkable season, and I have to give Dave Arranda a lot of credit.  I faded this team multiple times under Arranda, and I was flat out wrong.  With all of that being said, I think Ole Miss has an advantage in the dome here, some of their stats, which are already better against tougher competition are off, because Corral was not healthy most of the year and he rarely had all 3 of his receivers healthy, but they will in this game.  Baylor will start Gerry Bohannon who missed time with a hamstring issue, but how healthy is he, and at what point in the game does the hamstring become an issue if at all?

Honestly both teams had similar schedules, but Ole Miss +0.9 ypp differential, vs. an average opponent 0.37 is impressive compared to Baylor +0.7 vs. 0.225.  Both teams went 5-1 against opponents who had a +0.7 or higher yard per play differential, and Ole Miss only loss against Alabama, while Baylor lost to Oklahoma State, and should have lost to Iowa State (go back and look).  In that 5-1 span Ole Miss played the tougher competition those teams averaged 0.98 ypp differential against their opponent 0.15 ypp,  and Ole miss +9.6 points in their wins, while Baylor’s opponetns average 0.92ypp vs. opponent average of +0.04, and won by a margin of 8.8 points per game.  So all around very close, but what gets me to play this game here is Matt Corral is the better QB, some of Ole Miss stats are off because of the major injuries, and I actually like that Ole Miss defense stepped up when they were not 100% on offense. 

Utah +4.5 3.3% play / Utah +165 0.7% bonus

Iowa +3.5 -120 3% play

Arkansas -125 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama / Cinci Under 57.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Nick Saban, a month to prepare for tendencies and strengths, and I think the game plan will be to run the ball, and avoid turnovers.  Alabama came out running no huddle against Georgia, which made a lot of sense, and I think the offense looked great giving us an inflated total here.  Against Cinci, the way to attack them is in the running game. They boast two of the best corners in all of football, the #7 epa pass defense, and 18th sack %, but this defensive front is under sized.  Alabama without Menchie at WR, so I think the plan of attack will be on the ground, which obviously makes the under very attractive.

For Cinci's offense, I'm really not sure how they move the ball with consistency.  All of their big plays come on early downs, and you bet Alabama will be ready for that.  Desmond Ridder is really going to have to play the game of his life to win or put up points, because Alabama #2 in run defense, they're #41 in epa pass defense, and 8th in getting to the QB.  Ridder against good defenses have not been pretty and his offense has benefited largely from the Cinci defense forcing turnovers.  They rank 3rd in forced turnover percentage per drive, but Alabama is 9th on offensive TO% per drive.  I don't anticipate they will have that edge here.

CMU / Wash St over 57 2.2% play 

Wisconsin -6.5 2.2% play 

Arizona State without their top 2 RB, top 2CB, but this handicap seems a bit basic to me.  Arizona State only wins games when they control the trenches and avoid the turnover. +4 to margin in wins -5 in losses more on this later.  In wins they run for 5.76 ypc, and losses 4.15.  They were also not a good running team away form home compared to home where they averaged over a ypc more, and they’ll be going up against one of the best run defenses in the country in Las Vegas, where Wisconsin should have a bit of home field advantage.  Wisconsin fans travel well to every sport.  Defensively Arizona State is very good, but allowed 3.01 ypc in wins, and 4.63 ypc in losses.  They allowed 1.36ypc more on the road this year.  Wisconsin has the advantages in run defense and run offense.  Arizona State just 1-3 vs. teams that are in the top 50 in rushing offense giving up a TD more than their 20.9ppg allowed overall in those games.  Their 4 losses this year were by double digits.  Arizona State also faced just one team in the top 75 in success rate defense, and Wisconsin is #2.  They’ll have to do it without their top 2 RB, their C who was All Pac 12, and their top 2 CBs.  I don’t trust Jayden Daniels to win this game for Arizona State.  When he was held under 50 yards this year they were just 1-4 scoring 17, 21,21, 10 and 42 points in those games.  Wisconsin boasts the #2 epa run defense, #1 in ypc, and held a similar QB in Adrian Martinez to only 23 yards on 9 carries.

I believe the issues that were giving Wisconsin problems early that led to losses were turnovers and that was cleaned up.  They had -11 to margin in their first 5 games, and finished +12 in their final 7 games.  Arizona State actually ranked 104th in to% per drive, and Daniels had just as many issues as Mertz.ew  Graham Mertz is still not the answer, but it seems like Arizona State’s run defense can be had and unless Wisconsin announces a bunch of players out due to covid I like this number, and I’ll back the Badgers in what should be a close game. Wisconsin also has the edge on special teams.

Michigan State -3 2.2% play 

Tennessee -6 2.2% play

Tennessee wants to go fast, and Hooker has been a blast to watch.  Purdue is playing without their top two WR, Bell and Wright, their starting LT Greg Long is doubtful, and best defender George Karlaftis is preparing for the NFL draft.  They also are without their Sr CB Dedrick Mackey who dind’t make the trip for academic issues.  I don’t think these losses in this match up have been properly calculated into the line.  Purdue no longer has the offensive fire power to keep up with Tennessee in my opinion.  Tennessee’s defensive weakness is vs. the run, but Purdue passes the ball 62% of the time, and will be without their top weapon.

Every time a defense faces this offense for the first team it takes time to adjust, and I think Tennessee can go up early in this one.  Purdue has not seen anything like the speed that is going to be run by Tennessee and it’s going to be a huge adjustment.

Other factors here are the fact that Purdue also very prone to the turnovers ranking 112th in turnovers per possession and that was with their top targets and LT in the game.  Tennessee takes care of the ball ranking 34th in to% per drive.  Tennessee also has a huge edge in special teams ranking 7th to 102nd.

Oregon/ Oklahoma Over 60 2.2% play

Tonight’s game between Oregon and Oklahoma is particularly difficult with so much change going on for both teams, but I have a strong feeling for the over.  

I think Oregon’s defense is really going to struggle against Caleb Williams, and Kennedy Brooks in this game.  Oregon ranked 100th in success rate defense this year despite the other numbers that would suggest they were a dominating defense.   Oklahoma vs. a non top 80 success rate defenses have average 41.67ppg.  Oklahoma’s offense is largely intact and first time play caller Cale Gundy has been around for years in the booth, and I feel he will call a good game against this Oregon defense missing their best defensive player.

Both offenses struggled a bit when facing top 50 epa run defenses, Oklahoma scoring 25.16 on average, and Oregon scoring 20.75 on average, but both teams will be missing depth and starters from their defensive front 7.  Oklahoma will be missing 4 of their 7 starters in the front 7, their pass defense ranks 108th in qb rating 123rd in epa pass defense, and they won’t have their defensive coordinator for this game with Odom taking over as a first time play caller.  Oregon’s offense has averaged 39.4 ppg vs. teams not called Utah.  Against poor pass defenses they averaged 38.6ppg.  I think it’s an opportunity for Anthony Brown and the Oregon offense with the extra time with the younger receivers to put up some points on an Oklahoma defense that is sometimes aggressive causing explosive plays.

Another reason I expect points here are both defenses have struggled when facing top 50 epa rushing offenses.  Oklahoma gave up 29ppg, while Oregon gave up 30.16 ppg.  Oregon also playing without some of their top defensive players.  I think we see a fun game here with a lot of points, and the total is a bit lower than it would be, but Oregon really struggled against Utah in 2 of their last 3 games. 

Clemson -1 3.3% play 

Louisville +1 2.2% play 

Auburn -120 4.5% play 

Florida -6.5 1.1% 

Army / Missouri Over 56 3.3% play

Situationally this is not a good time to play a triple option team.  Missouri really didn’t get extra preparation as Drinkewitz admitted they started a game plan this week, because of recruiting, and the players are in finals week, and their DC Steve Wilks hasn’t prepared for triple option as he spent the past decade in the NFL.  Missouri also among the worst run defenses ranking 115th in ypc, 120th in epa run defense.  When they faced top rushing offenses the defense allowed 37.5 ppg.  They did play better down the stretch after their bye, but perhaps that is why this total has come down 3 points.  At the end of the day this defense still gave up 28 points to Vanderbilt.

For Army, they just lost to Navy 10 days ago when this game starts, and it’s not a ton of time to prepare for an SEC opponent who is not announcing a starting QB, which really makes game planning much more difficult for Army.  Missouri will still have the best offensive player on the field in RB Tyler Badie.  Drinkewitz is also an offensive mind so if he’s going to spend his time on anything it’s going to be making sure the offense clicks and he better considering this is a stand alone game on Wednesday night.   Army ranks 89th in ypp defense, and Missouri against top 65 ypp defenses have only average 18.8ppg, but in their 5 games against non-top 65 defenses they have eclipsed 30 points in every game, and an average of 36.8.  Army is actually the worst ypp defense that Missouri has faced all year except Vanderbilt, who they scored 37 points on. 

Army tends to slow games down as do most service academies, but service academies are on a 19-11 over run.  Missouri 126th in 10+ yard plays allowed, Army is top 10, both teams also very good in red zone TD% on offense and very poor on defense.  Missouri’s defensive line on standard downs ranks 116th, 92nd in power success and 75th in stuff rate looks awfully similar to Wake Forest’s 105th, 69th, and 71st rankings, and Army scored 56 points in that game.  This should be a fun game with lots of points, and I like that the total has come down quite a bit since open.  Game will be played in Fort Worth, TX at TCU’s stadium where the weather should be pretty good.

UTSA +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this game means more to UTSA, they will have the crowd edge in Frisco, TX and I’m a bit surprised they are dogs here, but the Mountain West just gets more respect than C-USA, but they are just 11-10 vs. C-USA in bowl games.  We already saw UTEP go toe to toe with Fresno State, and that was much more of a mismatch than this game.  In reality on paper UTSA is the better team, far more balanced overall where San Diego State is a very good team, but they have a very bad offense.  They’ll rely on running the ball, but they still rank just 83rd in EPA run, and they are going up against a very good run defense that play physical football, and ranks 29th in epa run defense. 

San Diego State played 3 top run defenses this year and scored 19, 20, and 20 points.  UTSA is without their star RB who opts out to prepare for the NFL draft, but if there is a position I’d want to lose, it would be RB.  They still have their leader Frank Harris at QB, and San Diego State’s defense has not faced a mobile QB this season.  IF you remember they played Utah gave up 31 points at home, won the game, but that was the first game for Cam Rising at QB, and he had 50 rushing yards against this San Diego State defense.  Facing a top defense is nothing new for UTSA and I think they’ll enjoy the challenge.  They faced 4 top 40 ypp defenses and averaged 35.5 points per game in those games eclipsing 27 or more points in each.

I have tremendous respect for Jeff Traylor he’s a winner, and they beat a Western Kentucky team in their Championship game that dominated in bowl season.  They have hit many goals this year, beating a Big 10 opponent, getting 12 wins, and a C-USA Championship, but going for a 13th win is something very special especially since it would be their first bowl win ever.  Jeff Traylor is one hell of a coach we backed them against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship, and it paid off and I’ll do it again here.  Traylor missed last year’s bowl game because of COVID protocols, and his team still nearly upset Louisiana Lafayette as a +14 dog.  They got behind 24-7, and crawled back to tie the game in the 4th.  This is a team that does not give up plays hard football, and I think they get the upset here.   Brady Hoke has had a great season, but I feel like the luck runs out here.  He’s just 2-3 in bowl games and when this defense played a top 50 ypp offense they went 1-1, but gave up 30 points in both games.  The only reason I’m not taking the money line here is these are two defensive teams, San Diego State plays a lot of close games, and the 3 points mean a lot more than getting +122.

Kent State +3.5 2.2% play / Kent State +150 1% play

This is a very interesting game, and I think we are getting some extra value here, because the MAC is 0-3 in bowl games, and the Mountain West is 2-0, and then you ad din the fact that Wyoming went 2-0 vs. the MAC, and beat Northern Illinois on the road 50-43, while Kent State lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship.  A closer look reveals that Wyoming forced 3 turnovers against Northern Illinois and gave up well over 6 ypc.  Kent State, which is known for their up tempo offense was facing Northern Illinois for the second time this season, which makes it much easier to play against if you’ve seen it before, and Kent State actually did a better job running and stopping the run against Northern Illinois, which is actually shocking for a Wyoming team known for their defense.

Wyoming’s defense ranked 32nd in ypp, but they faced an average opponent ypp offense ranking 84th.  There are holes in this defense that haven’t been there in the past.  They actually ranked 70th in epa run defense, 85th in ypc defense, and that’s the key for Kent State’s fast paced offense as they run the ball 58% of the time, but they are also an offense that can beat you with the pass with Dustin Crum under center.  This is the best offense that Wyoming has faced all year.  All the other offenses they faced were not in the top 50 in rushing and passing, and Wyoming went 1-3 this season against top 50 success rate offenses, and Kent State ranks 3rd in success rate offense.  Their lone win was vs. Northern Illinois, but again they forced 3 INT’s, and I don’t see that as something Crum will commit here.

Kent State beat a Mountain West opponent 2 years ago that was no better than this Wyoming team as they won 51-41 against Utah State.  I really like what Sean Lewis is building here, and I think the world of Wyoming’s HC, but Wyoming has some real head scratchers this season.  Not only did they play a far weaker non-conference schedule with Uconn, and 2 MAC teams while Kent State played 3 power 5 opponents including Iowa and Texas A&M on the road, but Wyoming had some real clunkers getting blown out at home against Hawaii, barely getting by Uconn by 2 points, losing to horrible teams like New Mexico and San Jose State, yet people are running to the window to bet Wyoming here, and I just don’t see how you can play Wyoming given those facts.  I get it Kent State’s defense is awful, but Wyoming really doesn’t have a top defense to slow them down, and it’s the first time all year they are going to play a team that plays this fast.

My biggest reason for taking Kent State however is their ability to win the TO battle.  They rank top 25 in fewest possessions ending in a TO on offense, Wyoming is outside the top 100, and their defense ranks top 25 in forcing TO’s per possessions, while Wyoming ranks outside the top 100.  Wyoming +7 TO margin in their wins, -10 in losses, while Kent State is +14 in wins, and -1 in losses.  Kent State should win the TO battle and win this game outright.

Oregon State -7 3.3% play

Utah State overachieved this year and won the Mountain West, but it came against a very short handed San Diego State team, and I feel like we may be getting a short line, because of that.  Oregon State could win their first Bowl Game in more than a decade, and they’ll get a chance to do it on a very big stage.  Jonathan Smith could have gotten the HC job at Washington where he was the OC for the Huskies when they go to the College Football Playoff, but he decided to stay at his alma matter, and this is a massive game on ABC Saturday night in LA.  I think Smith is a better coach than Blake Anderson, who is 1-4 in bowl games.  Oregon State’s biggest weakness was going on the road in PAC 12 play where they went 0-5, but this is a neutral site game here.

Oregon State beat some good teams this year by more than 7 points including Arizona State and Utah.  When they rushed for more than 230 yards they went 6-1, and 5 of those 6 wins came by more than a TD.  Utah State vs. a top 30 rushing offense was shredded going 1-2, giving up 44, 34, and 45 points, 10 rushing TD’s and 1,020 rushing yards in the 3 games.  Their lone win over Air Force was a bit misleading.  Air Force was just 2-4 in the red zone coming away with 17 points, while Utah State was 3-3.  Air Force was also -1 TO margin and stopped on 4th down and still only lost by 4.  It was the difference between Air Force playing for the Conference Championship. Oregon State is one of the best red zone offenses, and expect them to put up plenty of points in this one.

BYU -6.5 1.1% Free Play

I feel like this is a cheap line on BYU here, a team with 2 losses on the season.  It sounds square, but with 10,000+ tickets 67% of the money is on UAB.  This team has one loss against Boise State, a game they were -4 TO margin in, they were + TO margin in 10 of their 12 games.  The other game was on the road for the Big 12 Champion Baylor, a team that had many on their staff that was previously on BYU staff and very familiar with BYU, and HC Sitake.  The line dipping below 7 is largely part of some missing starters, but the losses in my opinion are not significant. BYU has to feel disrespected to play in this bowl game, but I don’t see them not being interested.  They were 6-0 vs. P5 opponents.  BYU has faced two top 30 YPP defenses like UAB, and they went 2-0 with wins of 9 and 10 points against Utah and Arizona State. 

UAB, and Bill Clark have done a phenomenal job since bringing this program back in 2017.  The one thing they have failed to do is win their step-up games.  Their last 5 seasons they have played 5 Power 5 opponents, and have lost by 51, 17, 23, 21, and 29.  Their best offensive player Dewayne McBride is not 100%, and questionable.  I have heard the players and fans are a bit angry the game is 6 hours away in Shreeport, Louisiana.  They wanted the game in Mobile, which was a lot closer for their fans.  Whether that has any impact is unknown, but important to point out the level of excitement as some fans are staying behind to watch the basketball game against West Virginia at home.

I have to address the weather, because it’s going to be a factor here with rain expected, but I think that favors a mature BYU team more than it does UAB.

utep +12.5 2.2% play / Utep +375 0.5% 

Western Kentucky +135 3% Money Line Play

First of all the spread rarely matters in bowl games, and with such a high total I really don’t think getting a +3 is of any value so we are going with the money line here.  These two had common opponents in Marshall, while Western Kentucky went on the road as a 1 point favorite, and were +1.26 YPP, and App State hosted as a 7 point home favorite and was -0.42 YPP.  Those lines indicate these two teams are even yet on a neutral field App State is a 3 point favorite. Add in the fact that App State is also without their top WR Corey Sutton, and I think we have some value in the number with the Hilltoppers.

Western Kentucky’s offense is one of the best in the country, and they have a ton to play for.  Their two OC’s are headed out, but HC Tyson Helton said OC Zach Kittley will remain to coach in this game, which tells me everything I need to know, this game matters.  QB Bailey Zappe is going after Joe Burrow’s record, and I would imagine that Western Kentucky wants to win this after the devastating tornadoes that hit their county this past week.  The Basketball team dedicated their most recent win to the victims and you have to think it means something here.

App State to me is not the same App State team as years past and they did not face as tough of a schedule as Western Kentucky who faced two P5 opponents compared to 1 for App State.  Against similar type of teams, App State went 1-3, and their only win was against Marshall by 1 points, a team that Western Kentucky destroyed 53-21.  That 1-3 record came against Lafayette +1 ypp diff vs. opp -0.39, Miami +0.2 vs. 0.35, and Marshall +1.2 vs. -0.26.  Western Kentucky easily better than all 3 of those teams +1.5 ypp vs. -0.39. 

Western Kentucky faced UTSA in their Championship game and got down early, but App State has been a slow starter all year long.  When it was said and done I was happy my play on UTSA held on +3.5, as Western Kentucky nearly over came -3 TO margin and they were +1.1 YPP in the game.  UTSA actually has nearly identical numbers to App State, run first team solid defense, special teams, but they don’t turn the ball over yet they were a 3.5 point dog at home in a Conference Championship game.  I think App State is getting far too much credit for their 6-0 mark in Bowl Games.  There is a major mismatch here, and that’s Western Kentucky’s ability to force turnovers they rank 8th in opponent possessions ending in a TO, and have 19 INT.  I didn’t trust Chase Brice with his #1 WR, I certainly don’t trust him without, and App State ranks 85th in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO.  Lafayette ranked 24th in forcing turnovers and they forced 5 in their two matchups.  Win the TO margin and you win most games. 

The biggest concern I have with Western Kentucky is the weather, which as of right now in Boca Raton shows 10mph winds with 20mph gusts, and some rain, but it’s 25-30% chance, and the wind is not significant.

Toledo -10 3.3% play 

NAVY +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I expect a tight game on a neutral field here.  The numbers favor Army, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule with Notre Dame and Cinci on their schedule and their opponent YPP differential are far different.  Navy has faced an average opponent YPP diff of +0.65 cmopared to Army -0.2.  The YPP differential, and opponent YPP differential leads me to believe that Army is the side, but you have to understand these two teams know each other, and anything over a TD I think is gold in this game.  This most resembles the 2018 game where Army was 7 point favorite, and pushed with a 17-10 win, but that was because they were +4 TO margin.

Army +11 TO margin in their wins and -4 in their losses.  Navy has a total of 8 to's on the season and rank 5th in posessions ending in a TO, Army ranks 10th.  I actually think Navy has the better run defense they rank 52nd in epa run defense comapred to Army who is 87th.  It doesn't look or seem like Navy is any better than last year, and last year was a complete disaster for Navy, but Army is slightly worse, and Navy has gotten a lot better.  Their average offensive and defensive standard line yards, power success, and stuff rate is 48th, Army's is 23.16.  Last year, when they were also +7.5 a true road game mind you.  They averaged 75th, while Army averaged 31st.  In 2018 when Navy was 7 point dog on a neutral they averaged 80th, while Army averaged 20th. 

I think this match-up is going to be a lot closer, and  Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than Army fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, lost by only 3 to East Carolina and at won at Tulsa who statistically are better than Army.  Navy'd DC, Brian Newberry has only given up 2 TD's in 2 games vs. Army so expect Navy to have an opportunity to win the game.

Iowa +11 3.3% play 

Pitt -3 2.2% play 

Under 53 5.5% MAX POD

Alabama U49.5 2.2% play 

App St -130 2.5%

SD St -6 1.1% 

Oregon +3 3.3% play 

UTSA +3.5 3.3% PLAY 

Cal +7 3% play 

Oklahoma +4.5 3.3% play 

Kentucky+3 1% free Play 

Syracuse +13 2.2% play 

South Carolina +12.5 3.3% play 

Wisconsin -7 2.2% play 

Tulsa +6.5 5.5% MAX POD / Tulsa +205 1% bonus

I love this game not only is the situation in our favor, but so are the numbers and the match ups.  Situationally, SMU comes off a loss to Cinci and they no longer have a shot at the conference championship, and their head coach is likely headed to TCU.  Phillip Montgomery on the other side is playing for bowl eligibility he just got a 2 year extension, which shows the confidence of the Tulsa program in Montgomery despite a 5-6 record.  That’s great news, because motivation for a bowl game with extra practices is clearly there to help build this program.  A closer look reveals Tulsa was right in their games against three Top 10 teams on the road. 

At Ohio State – they lost 41-20, but this was a 27-20 game with 3 minutes to play in the 4th quarter before Ohio State tacked on two late TD’s including an INT returned for a TD.

At Oklahoma State – they led 14-7 heading into the 4th quarter and lose 23-28.

At Cincinnati – they trailed 28-20 with the ball on the goal line two separate occasions where Cincinnati held them.  Tulsa actually held a 297 to 116 yard edge in the running game, and that brings me to the match up.

SMU has a very good run defense due to the size of their defensive line.  However, when going up against Cincinnati they no longer had that advantage as Cincinnati’s offensive line is massive averaging 313lbs, and the result was SMU giving up 250 rushing yards.  Tulsa also has a massive offensive line averaging 320lbs.  They have a top 50 rushing attack, and should be able to run the ball here, but more importantly I think they’ll be able to pass the ball.  SMU ranks 112th in QB rating defense, and 121st in epa pass defense.  When Tulsa has faced a bad pass defenses that rank outside the top 50 they actually average 38.4 points per game which is 2 TD more, and they are 5-1 with their lone loss being 17-20 against Navy.  Navy is typically the outlier in these situations, because of the unique offense they run, and their ability to limit the number of possessions.  The biggest issue for Tulsa’s offense this year has been the TO’s they rank 126th in percentage of their posessions ending in a TO, but when facing a non-top 80 TO defense (SMU is 112th).  They have only 3 TO’s in 4 games.

SMU’s offense is top 30 unit, but they rely more on their passing game, and Tulsa’s defensive strength is vs. the pass.  They rank 39th in epa pass defense.  SMU’s passing offense has only faced 3 top 50 pass defenses all season.  They got beat badly against Cincinnati, lost to Houston, and beat UCF.  At the end of the day this line should be more like 2.5 to 3.5.  Tulsa +0.5 ypp, and SMU +0.5 YPP differential and Tulsa clearly has done it against tougher competition with Oklahoma State, and Ohio State in their non-conference schedule compared to TCU for SMU.  The last 5 meetings have been decided by less than a TD with Tulsa winning 5.

Alabama 2% 

Troy +6.5 3.3%play / Troy +210 1% play

Troy fired their head coach, and it’s a step up game for the players to get to a bowl game and a 6th win.  The DC Brandon Hall takes over, and that’s the strength of this Troy team.  They rank 22nd in ypp, and they are 14th against the run.  Georgia State runs the ball 63% of the time they rank 31st running the ball, but they faced top 50 rushing offenses three times this season and put up 10, 16, and 17 points.  If Troy can stop the run on first down, and bring up obvious passing situations it will be a long day for Georgia State as Troy ranks 2nd in sack %, they are 38th opposing offense TO%.

Troy’s Gunnar Watson threw for over 400 yards in the 34-36 loss in this game last year, and Georgia State’s pass defense is worse.  They rank 99th in epa pass defense, so I believe Troy can have enough success in that category.  Watson missed time this year, but they are 3-3 since he came back, and the 3 losses were against the top 3 teams in the Sun Belt, Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, and App State.   Georgia is wildly inconsistent and playing their 6th game in 6 weeks.  They have been under dogs in all 8 meetings against Troy, but here they are a favorite of nearly a TD.

Miami Ohio pk 3.3% play 

Ohio State -7 2.2% play

I’m a bit surprised this number is not over 10.  The numbers say to play Michigan, but every time they step up in competition like this they get beat badly.  I don’t think the outstanding ends from Michigan will be able to get pressure on CJ Stroud who has been getting the ball out of his hands to the best trio of WR’s in the country, and every time this Michigan secondary goes up against more athletic receivers, they are not able to hold up.  Michigan’s numbers under Harbough have largely been a bit misleading as he likes to run it up against the weaker teams on the schedule.  Still it appears Ohio State has a massive advantage with a +3.1 ypp differential compared to Michigan’s +1.7 differential.  Ohio State has been dominant vs. the run, and unless Michigan comes out throwing on first down to surprise, he Buckeyes I think it could be a long day for the Wolverines at home.  I believe the under is the way to go here with a total of 64.5 is a lot of points when you consider Harbough got back to the old power running days.  They rank 104th in seconds per play, and I don’t think they have any wishes to get into a track meet.  Their best bet to win this game is to create a slug fest. We have two teams that rank top 25 in 20+ plays allowed and at the end of the day these are still two very good defenses. 

Washington +1 1.1% Free play 

North Carolina +200 2% play 

Iowa +1 3.3% play 

Ole Miss +115 3% play 

Oregon +3.5 -115 4% play 

Everytime this jumpt to 3.5 it gets back down to +3, and is currently at +3 +100 or -105 so you shoudl be able to get this number. 

Everyone knows I'm holidng an Oregon +2500 National Title ticket with some other long shots, but I do truly believe this team steps up when it matters and plays to the level of their competition.  Utah is getting tremendous respect in this line, and I understand they have great home field advantage, BUT.. This is not the same Utah team as year's past.  Their defense is young, and has given up 200+ yards rushing three times this season and against Arizona State they trailed 21-7 at half.  Arizona State was having over 50% success running the ball in the first half, and I'm not sure what happened, but if anything that raises flags for Utah's defense for me.  Utah has some key injuries here with their All Conference CB out, their achnor on DL Moala out for season, and his replacement Faybian Marks got injured against Arizona.  Oregon had success in the 2019 Pac 12 Chanmpionship running the ball against a much more talented defense rushign for 241 yards and really controlling the game.  Yes, Justin Herbert was the QB, and everyone is obsesses with him, but he really did not have a great game, nor did Cristobal ever let him loose.  Oregon won that game for their play in the trenches, and the #'s say to me that they are better than that year while Utah is worse.  Utah is starting 5 freshman players on their defense!!!

Utah's offense has been very impressive since Rising took over and I'm not going to discount that.  Oregon has been bend but don't break defense, and really haven't had a game that has been dominant, but that could change here today.  I think Utah has some injury issues on the OL, and look to be without their starting C paul Maile.  Whittingham is pretty quiet on injuries, but they also have their hammer Tavion Thomas who is banged up as well.  Thomas will play, but he had some fumble issues earlier in the season that I wonder if they creep back up.  Whenever you are playing less than 100% that seems to be where your mind is on something other than protecting the ball.  Oregon's defense ranks 12th in defensive posessions ending in a TO. 

2019, Oregon also had a chance to get into College Football Playoff traveling to Tempe to face Arizona State, much like this trip, and they lost 28-31.  Why is this different?  Oregon does not have the pressure of letting a generational QB throw the ball they can be themselves, which is running the ball.  Herbert, the wonder kid threw 2 INT in that game that cost them the game.  I think this game is going to be close.  I think the line is off as Oregon has very similar #'s, but they are the better running team and the better run defense, they ahve a significantly better special teams, and their defense is more experienced and forces more TOs.  The only reason we are seeing 3, 3.5 is Anthony Brown.  I believe Brown is going to play with a chip on his shoulder, he's going to be a runner, and he'll make/take the easy throws to a taltened WR group.  

Virginia Tech +7.5 3.3% play

We have an interesting dichotomy on our hands in this match up.  On one hand we have Virginia Tech who fired their HC Justine Fuente this week, and the other we have Manny Diaz likely out after this season or next week as Miami fired their AD.  We have seen it time and time again with teams stepping up in their first game after a HC was not there.  We saw it last week with Washington, the week before with Baylor, Washington St and USC earlier this season.  On top of that Miami off a gut punching loss to their in state rival Florida State.  They gave up a 4th and 14, they had 14 penalties they are just a bad team, and it is on the HC Manny Diaz

The match up is also very favorable as Miami is a pass 1st team, and the strength of Virginia Tech’s defense is the pass defense where they rank top 30 in the nation.  Virginia Tech’s offensive strength/identity is in the running game, and Miami’s defensive weakness is against the run.  Miami ranks 83rd in EPA run defense, 96th in 20+ yard runs allowed.  Virginia Tech has large advantage in special teams ranking 15th to Miami’s 86th, and they have edge in third down efficiency as well as TO %’s.  Virginia Tech should win the TO battle when we look at the fact that Miami ranks 111th in offensive TO %, and 119th in forcing TO’s, while Virginia Tech ranks 15th in offensive possessions ending in TO’s.  To make matters worse Miami also has a huge penalty issues while Virginia Tech is relatively clean on penalties.  Miami’s pass defense is also not great, and because of injuries they have 3 freshman starting along with a sophomore so Virginia Tech may be able to have some balance here.

I think we are getting some value as that road trip to Boston College is factored into the spread here, but Virginia Tech lost their starting QB Braxton Burmeister on the first or second series and there was a large drop off.  Also worth noting is Virginia Tech is still alive in the Coastal, and they led 24-13 late in the 3Q in last year’s matchup before losing 25-24.

Kansas State pk 2.2% play 

UCLA -3 3.3% PLAY

USC in their 4 wins havea llowed 3.11 ypc, and in their 5 losses 5.5 ypc, but bad news as UCLA comes in with the 25th ranked ypc attack, and 13th epa run offense.  USC overall ranks 98th in stopping the run, and it's not like they can stop the pass either ranking 119th in epa pass defense.  UCLA actually has balance on offense ranking 39th in epa pass offense.

Advantages for USC in this game is the fact taht they are a throw first team, and UCLA has really struggled vs. the pass ranking 94th in epa pass defense, but the reality is USC is not much better than UCLA at passing the ball, and their pass defense is worse.  USC will also be without their best WR London, and QB Slovis, as they look to start a true freshman.

USC also has all the interim coaches, which after a bye is not ideal in my opinion.  Maybe they are trying out for new jobs, but I still think the players probably aren't going to be showing max effort here where UCLA felt robbed in last year's game losing with seconds to go.  UCLA's 4 losses this year have been against the top 3 teams in the PAC 12, and top team in the Mountain West.  All 4 teams have top 40 defenses in Fresno, Utah, Arizona St, and Oregon.  USC ranks 103rd in YPP, and that has come against a realtively weak schedule of offenses ranked 70th in ypp offense.  The last two years USC has been top 70 vs. an average 58th ranked ypp off.  

Navy +4 5.5% NCAAF POD

25 seniors will be honored here on Senior Day, the last home game, and Navy 17-1 SU run on SR. Day, with the lone loss coming last year in front of zero fans.  East Carolina is in a huge sandwich spot, not only do they have to travel the second week in a row they do it after a huge upset over Memphis, which they became bowl eligible with, and they have Cincinnati at home next week.  East Carolina was also out played last week as they were -1.5 ypp in the game, but were lucky to recover both fumbles in the game and held on in OT as Memphis went for 2.

On top of the situation I also like the match up.  Navy sports a top 50 run defense ranking 38th in epa run defense.  East Carolina vs. top 50 defenses are 0-3 and have averaged 10.5 ppg less than their season average.  East Carolina’s defensive weakness is also bad against the run ranking 89th, where their pass defense is their strength ranking 21st in epa pass defense, which likely won’t play a factor here with Navy running the ball 84% of plays.  Navy was bad last year, and they were able to win at East Carolina and ran for nearly 300 yards in the game.  East Carolina also heavily relies on forcing turnovers to get wins.  13 forced turnovers in their 6 wins, and Navy ranks 5th in % of possessions ending in a TO.  +4 is a lot of points in a game with limited possessions especially when you look at East Carolina who struggles in the red zone 51% TD%, 42% on the road that 4 points becomes a lot more valuable.  Navy for as bad as their defense seems they have faced a very tough schedule on average ranking of 42nd in YPP.  They rank 11th in the country with just 33 20+ plays allowed.

Lastly, Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than East Carolina fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, and at Tulsa who statistically are better teams than East Carolina.  East Carolina is -0.2 YPP vs. avg opp -0.05, while UCF +0.3 vs. -0.02, Tulsa +0.1 vs. +0.04.  I think Navy gets this game for their seniors.

Navy +4 5.5% NCAAF POD

25 seniors will be honored here on Senior Day, the last home game, and Navy 17-1 SU run on SR. Day, with the lone loss coming last year in front of zero fans.  East Carolina is in a huge sandwich spot, not only do they have to travel the second week in a row they do it after a huge upset over Memphis, which they became bowl eligible with, and they have Cincinnati at home next week.  East Carolina was also out played last week as they were -1.5 ypp in the game, but were lucky to recover both fumbles in the game and held on in OT as Memphis went for 2.

On top of the situation I also like the match up.  Navy sports a top 50 run defense ranking 38th in epa run defense.  East Carolina vs. top 50 defenses are 0-3 and have averaged 10.5 ppg less than their season average.  East Carolina’s defensive weakness is also bad against the run ranking 89th, where their pass defense is their strength ranking 21st in epa pass defense, which likely won’t play a factor here with Navy running the ball 84% of plays.  Navy was bad last year, and they were able to win at East Carolina and ran for nearly 300 yards in the game.  East Carolina also heavily relies on forcing turnovers to get wins.  13 forced turnovers in their 6 wins, and Navy ranks 5th in % of possessions ending in a TO.  +4 is a lot of points in a game with limited possessions especially when you look at East Carolina who struggles in the red zone 51% TD%, 42% on the road that 4 points becomes a lot more valuable.  Navy for as bad as their defense seems they have faced a very tough schedule on average ranking of 42nd in YPP.  They rank 11th in the country with just 33 20+ plays allowed.

Lastly, Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than East Carolina fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, and at Tulsa who statistically are better teams than East Carolina.  East Carolina is -0.2 YPP vs. avg opp -0.05, while UCF +0.3 vs. -0.02, Tulsa +0.1 vs. +0.04.  I think Navy gets this game for their seniors.

Iowa State +3.5 2.2% play / Iowa St +155 1% ML Bonus

Iowa State actually has better numbers against a tougher schedule than Oklahoma does, yet this line is stating that Oklahoma is a -1.5 favorite on a neutral.  I get it Iowa State has 4 losses, and some of them have been very freaky losses, games they would not have lost in the past but have this year, because they were no longer playing in the under dog role and in a way had a target on their back, but they are back to the role we love them in, and that is an under dog.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings, and Oklahoma just came off a loss to Baylor, which essentially was a dream crushing loss as they are likely now out of the CFB Playoff picture.  This just is not the same Oklahoma offense as years past.

First of all they rank 5th in YPP so you may argue that, but the fact of the matter is they faced an average opponent ypp defense ranked 87th.  Last year they faced an average opponent defense ranked 60th, and they were not starting a true freshman QB, and the previous two years had experienced QB’s.  The last 3 match ups between these two teams have been very close.  Oklahoma won by 6 last year at Iowa State, lost by 7 at home, and won by 1 in 2018.  When we look back at those 3 Oklahoma teams they on average had +2.13 YPP edge against an average opponents YPP differential of -0.17.  This year they are only +0.7 YPP differential, against a average opponent that is -0.11.  Iowa State in those 3 years average +1.2 YPP differential vs. opponent +0.08, and they were able to hang in games against Oklahoma.  Despite being 6-4 this Iowa State team is better than the past 3 versions as they are +1.7 ypp differential vs an average opponent YPP diff of 0.  They actually are better in every category except special teams than Baylor.

Iowa State’s defense may not be as good particularly in the secondary, but Oklahoma is not the type of team right now that can beat you with their passing offense.  They really lack any kind of explosive WR weapon, their WR drop far too many passes, and Iowa State is stout against the run ranking better than Baylor.  This game is on the road, but this veteran group of Iowa State players have won here before, and have plenty of confidence.  This is essentially their Super Bowl now that they can no longer get into the Big 12 Championship.

Florida State +111 2% Play

This should be a flat spot for FSU after upsetting Miami, and with Florida on deck, but FSU has to be playing with a ton of confidence and at 4-6 really want to get to a bowl game.  This is a winnable game as FSU has the better #’s against tougher competition +0.4 YPP vs. +0.05 compared to BC who is -0.4 vs. -0.33.  I think we are maybe giving Phil Jurkovec too much credit.  He has only 33 throws in two games and BC got a bit lucky as Virginia Tech lost their QB early in the game, and Georgia Tech also played without their starter.  Boston College has not been good in run defense ranking 105th in ypc defense, and the two running QB’s they faced they gave up tons of yards.  Jordan Travis should be able to move the ball on this defense.  From what I saw of Phil Jurkovec he did not have much zip on his throws so I wonder if he’s 100%.  FSU actually better statistically than Virginia Tech and with a healthy starting QB could take advantage.  On the flip side Boston College looks really banged up with several guys missing from the secondary, and 3 starters that are questionable this week.

Wake Forest +4.5 1.1% Free

Air Force / Nevada Over 52.5 3.3% play

I love this over play with this match up, which I would call a perfect storm.  The only thing that comes close in terms of Air Force playing a pass first team that plays fast, that is also not good at defending the run was Utha State.  Utah State is actually better at defending the run, but that was a 45-49 game, and Utah State at least likes to run the ball a bit.  Jay NOrvell admitted that they can't run the ball so why bother.  Carson Strong going to the NFL next year is one of the best QB's the nation, and it's not often that Air Force faces a pass first team nevermind a team that passes 68% of the time.

When we look at service academies in general they play opponents that are run first teams, and genearlly speaking are good vs. the run.  Here we have a team that passes first, plays fast, and is terrilbe vs. the run.  Service academies are typically better at defending the run than the pass.  They are disciplined in their gaps, and they see run first offense all the time in practice.  Whenever we see these match ups where we have a pass first team, and a team that's bad at defending the run it typically leads to high scoring games.  Air Force in 2019 faced Hawaii and Colorado State who fell in that bucket, and they won both games 56-26 and 38-21.  IN 2018 they played Nevada and won 28-25, but the diffence there was Nevad actually only passed 55% the time, and they ranked 30th in ypc run defense.  I see Air Force being more successfull here tonight as Nevada also ranking 97th in success rate defense.

When we look at othe rservice acdemises this year.  Navy gave up 31 and 35 points to SMU and Memphis who pass the ball just over 55% of the time.  Army played Western Kentucky, a similar match up where we have pass first offense going up against triple option, and the result was a 38-35 final, another high score.  Last year Army played La Monroe, who passed 63% of time and they won 37-7.  La Monroe was outside the top 100 in passing offense so not surprised by 7 points.  In 2019, Army played Hawaii and San Jose State, 31-52, and 29-34 more high scores.  IN 2018 they faced those teams again 52-3, and 28-21.  I would argue that this match up is the most lopsided of the bunch, and the only thing I could see is that Air Force is just really good tonight at stopping Carson Strong and the passing attack, but they play so fast 28th in seconds per play, that it will open the door to Air Force scoring quickly, and getting a large lead, which could mean some garbage TD's late by Nevada.  Either way I see points being scored here. 

Memphis +9.5 3.3% play / Memphis +290 0.3% bonus

Houston has literally nothing left to play for here.  They have Uconn on deck, and are already in the AAC Championshpi game.  Houston is a surprising 9-1, we faded them all the way back in week 1 against TExas Tech and it was their lone loss.  Since then they have won games, but a closer look reveals this team could easily have 3.  Against East Carolina they managed only 256 yards in OT loss and were -1.07 ypp.  Memphis just lost last week to East Carolina at home and were +1.5 ypp in thier OT loss.  They could have won the game, and went for 2 in OT, due to kicker issues, and that's why I am playing the ML.  I doubt Memphis is going to attempt many Field Goals, and the variance would be that they win this game by converted 4th downs and red zone opportunities into 7 points.  Memphis needs this game far more at 5-5 to get to 6 wins and go bowling.

It's not like Memphis hasn't been in every single game this year.  The only game they were blown out was UCF, and that's because they were missing QB Seth Henigan.  This team beat a strong MIss STate team at home, they only lost by 3 to UTSA, and have been in every other game.  Their core #'s of +0.9 YPP vs. an average opponents -0.366 differential are better than Houston's +0.9 vs. -0.82.  Houston's offense may struggle here against a strong Memphis run defense.  Houston ranks 54th in ypp, but vs. an average opponent ypp defense ranking 96.77.  Their defense although has been dominant on the stat sheet has shown vulnerabilities at times.  The only two offenses they faced on the season in the top 70 were Texas Tech, and SMU who they allowed 38 and 37 points.  Both of those teams are pass first teams like Memphis, and Houston was recently seen giving up 42 points to South Florida.  

TCU +12 2.2% PLAY

I gave out TCU spread and ML last week as they upset Baylor, and I think TCU stays in this game again.  We have a nice little story brewing here with Jerry Kill taking over as HC for Gary Patterson, and you bet the team is going to play for Kill.  Kill actually coached at the High School when Gundy played, and Gundy said Kill taught him Biology. 

Bottom line is TCU still has a top tier offense as we saw last week.  They are balance they can run, pass, and are efficient at doing so maybe more efficient than any opponent that Oklahoma St has faced.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been top tier, but against Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State who all have similar offenses to TCU, they gave up some points.  Now they went 3-1 in those games, but should have lost to Texas.  Oklahoma State’s offense is not great they rank 85th in ypp, and they rely heavily on the run 61% runs, while TCU has been awful against the run, they’re facing a team that ranks 80th in epa rush offense.  There is really nothing that should scare you about Oklahoma State’s offense, and both teams run, and don’t run their offense at an incredibly fast pace, which means winning by 2 TD’s is going to be tough in my opinion.

Arkansas -2.5 3.3% play

LSU just played the game of their lives in their Super Bowl against Alabama last week.  LSU coaching staff is gone after the season, the team has depth issues, Orgeron is making weird comments, and now making a QB controversy that makes no sense.  Max Johnson is hardly the problem here with 22 passing TD’s 6 INT, but Orgeron said he’s going let Garret Nussmeier playing time, because Garret wants to play. I think something has to do with Garret’s Daddy, Dallas Cowboys QB coach calling to say he wants his son playing.  What the hell is going on?

This is a trophy game for the Golden Boot, and Arkansas wants it back.  Arkansas has a balanced offense they can run, they can throw, and their defense is better than LSU’s.  LSU ranks 89th in epa run and 92nd epa pass.  LSU struggled against a similar Ole Miss Defense that likes to drop guys back in coverage, and I have a feeling Garret Nussmeier will have a costly turnover in this game.  This was a 3 point game last year, but Arkansas is vastly improved while LSU is far worse than a year ago.

Washington +6 2.2%

All year we have seen players and teams step up when there is turmoil on the coaching staff.  Jimmy Lake suspended for striking a player, and Washington also fired their OC.  We saw Washington St step up without their coaches, we saw TCU do it last week, and we saw USC do it as well.  I think this is an excellent spot for Washington who has really nothing to lose in this game.  Washington has bene in every game this year as 4 of their 5 losses have been by single digits.  They are home here they play excellent red zone defense, and have a huge advantage in TO Margin, and it’s going to be a weather game.

Expect 48 degrees and rain here, and Arizona State coming in where they just have not played well on the road.  They are 1-2 this year, but 7-10 under Herman Edwards, and if you take out last year when they were 2-1m(no fans) they are actually 5-9!  To me this is still a very soft team, and that does not bode well when you go on the road in bad weather conditions playing an angry team.  When I say Arizona State is soft they had a Sr. CB come out to the media asking the media to be nice after what the media wrote in their loss to Washington State.  Like are you freaking kidding me? 

Washington has edges on special teams and TO percentage per possession, and Arizona State’s home/away splits are not good.  I think we are getting extra points with Washington given the situation, and I think Washington comes out with an outright upset.

Ole Miss +3 -120  3.5%

Ole miss comes into the game with 2 losses just the same as A&M, but they are home dogs in a night game against #11 team.  I like Ole Miss here in this spot.  This is just A&M’s second true road game, the first one was against a hopeless Missouri team.  They played two neutral sight games against Colorado, and the offense really struggled, and Arkansas losing 20-10.  A&M has injury issues in their secondary that will probably finally hurt them here.  They have freshman and sophomore’s playing and it’s in reality their first road game.  They also have two freshman starting on the OL, which is not a great recipe when you face an aggressive defense like Ole Miss that ranks 5th in sack %, and rank 20th in defensive TO %.  Texas A&M’s offense ranks 75th in offensive drives ending in a TO.  Ole Miss also very good on third down defense and should be able to get the Aggies off the field.  Aggies scored points of late, but 6 of their last 15 TD’s have come on defense, or special teams or short fields.  Ole Miss 8th in TO %.  I just don’t see the Aggies getting anything easy here in a night game with a Heisman Trophy candidate in Matt Corral.  This could be his last chance to have the Heisman moment.

To beat A&M’s defense you must have a balanced offense.  Ole Miss clearly has that with Matt Corral at the helm.  He is a mobile QB, but he can throw too and the offense has a legit rushing offense that ranks 8th in epa.  Arkansas, a similar team overall to Ole Miss had a balanced rushing and passing attack and they really controlled that game on a neutral site against the Aggies beating them 20-10.

South Carolina -1 3.3% play

These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and although Missouri finally covered a spread last week it was against Georgia who honestly could not have been taking Missouri seriously and really played conservatively once they got a decent lead, and still Missouri only put up 6 points.  South Carolina meanwhile looks to extend their momentum after beating Florida in dominating fashion.  South Carolina is building something here, and I love the HC Beamer, and they want to get to a Bowl game.  I can’t say that Missouri cares, I have seen multiple times this season where they had no effort.  So the situation for me is with South Carolina.  South Carolina has also played the tougher schedule, and have the better numbers with -0.3 ypp against an opponents with +0.73 ypp margin.  Missouri comes in at -0.9 vs. opponent +0.26 ypp.

South Carolina’s offense stepped up last week with their third string QB Jason Brown, really looked like the best passer for South Carolina, but it was the running game that got going.  South Carolina gets to go up against a bad defense yet again this week as Missouri ranks 129th in epa run defense, and 98th in epa pass defense.  South Carolina +4ppg averaging 27 vs. opponents with bad defenses.  If Brown struggles for any reason, Beamer, said he’s got Zoland who is healthy enough to play.

Missouri is really banged up, and could be without their starting QB Connor Bazulak, but either way I look for them to struggle vs.  South Carolina team that shows effort the entire game.  South Carolina ranks in top 50 in epa pass defense and epa run defense.  Missouri’s offense has carried the team, but they have not faced many teams that are good at stopping the run and pass.  Just two times it has happened and Missouri scored 6 and 14 points.  The next best defense they faced was Boston College and they lost on the road in OT. 

Ohio St -20.5 2.2% play 

Georgia -20 1% 

UAB +4.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / UAB +170 1% bonus

Marshall was my POD last Saturday over FAU, and it was an easy cover, but Marshall continued to give up rushing yards 47-243 yards, but luckily FAU, and their poor coaching staff bailed us out.  That will not happen here as Bill Clark far better coach than Willie Taggart.  UAB held Marshall to 268 yards in their own building last year and there really is not much difference between last year’s UAB vs. Marshall.  Marshall was +1.4 vs. -0.6 ypp while UAB WAS +1.3 VS. -0.25.  This year, UAB +1 VS. -0.35, AND Marshall +1.6 vs. -0.53.  UAB also needs this game more as both sit at 4-1, UAB is trailing UTSA, and if they don’t win this game next week’s game won’t matter at all, while Marshall can afford to lose, and then beat Western Kentucky the last week of the season and win their division to get to the C-USA Championship.

UAB also has the goods in a team that I want to back on the road.  They have very good rushing offense ranked 10th in epa, they’re going against a Marshall defense that ranks 95th in ypc, and 93rd in epa run defense.  They have a very good defense ranking 24th in ypp, and can force Marshall into third and longs to let their elite pass rush get after Marshall.  They also rank 12th in defensive TO% per possession, while Marshall ranks 122nd on offense.  I don’t think Marshall can play a clean game here, while UAB can. The biggest difference between this year and last year’s match up is Marshall seems to have forgotten how to stop the run. Last year’ steam ranked 6th in ypc defense, and gave up 216 yards to UAB, but this year’s defense ranks 95th.  It’s not even because they have faced a tougher group of offenses.  UAB’S ranked 64th in epa run offense last year, and this year they rank 10th.  They ran for 127 yards at Georgia, which is the second most rushing yards Georgia has given up all year.  I think the wrong team is favored here UAB wins outright!

Florida St +3 buy 1/2 3% play 

Iowa -175 2.5% play 

This is a buy low spot for Iowa, and that’s the time I want to buy them.  This is a home game and an elimination game for the Big Ten West.  Iowa lost to Purdue and Wisconsin, but they historically have issues with those two teams for various reasons.  Iowa has owned Minnesota especially under PJ Fleck.  They are 4-0 against Fleck and the only time Minnesota was within the number was in 2019 when Minnesota had a very good passing game and ranked #10.  Iowa was really in control of that game up 20-3.  There is also no love lost between these two coaches.  PJ Fleck down 35-0 last year with his starters in the game against the second team of Iowa scored a late TD against Iowa’s backup defense.  Ferentz used three timeouts late simply to send some sort of message.

Iowa’s offense has struggled, and with a less than 100% Petras last week, Ferentz inserted Alex Padilla at QB, and he’ll get the start this week. I don’t think it’s a bad thing for an offense that has struggled so anyone telling you they are backing Minnesota, because Petras is OUT is clueless.  Padilla came in last week against Northwestern and it gave the offense a spark as he led back to back TD Scoring drives.  I think the rest of the team steps up here with their starting QB out again to help Padilla.

Minnesota’s offense has not been great.  They rely on the rushing attack, and are completely one dimensional.  They will have a really tough time going up against Iowa’s run defense that plays the gaps better than any team.  They rank #3 in epa run defense, and they back it up with the #13 epa pass defense.  This is the best defense Minnesota has faced all year, and we have seen them struggle plenty against Illinois who ranked 69th in epa pass defense, and 86th in epa run defense.  They struggled against Bowling Green scoring only 10 points, while Bowling Green 11th in epa pass defense they are 116th in epa run defense.  Iowa has the secondary to leave on an Island and play the rush.  Minnesota could also be without their best WR Bell who is ? and was injured in last game.  This all sets up nicely for Iowa to do what they do best.

UCF +7 2-3%

This spread is not adjusting for the last two weeks where UCF dominated Memphis, and Memphis just beat SMU, who has now lost back to back games.  Their head coach is interviewing for P5 HC jobs and is probably out after this year, and they are now two games out of the AAC Championship, and have Cincinnati on deck.  I like where UCF is trending they come into this game with identical YPP numbers to Memphis, against a tougher schedule +0.7ypp, vs. -0.225, compare to Memphis +0.7 vs. -0.43.  SMU is +0.8 vs. -0.75.  I backed UCF over Memphis 2 weeks ago, and I backed Memphis over SMU last week so I have to back UCF over SMU here  with it being +7.

The match up is a bit different than the game last week as SMU goes up against a top tier passing defense instead of a good run defense, but overall, UCF is a far better defense than Memphis.  They are far better vs. the pass, which is what SMU likes to do the most.  UCF also 22nd in % of possessions ending in TO’s on defense, while SMU has been turning the ball over ranking 85th in TO%.  SMU really struggled last week without their SR Center Allan Ali, who is out again this week, and they’ll likely be without their most dynamic RB Bentley who came back soon last week.  UCF’s got some dudes on that defensive line and rank 34th in sack %.  SMU played their first two defenses in the top 50 the last two weeks and lost both games. I could see the same happening this week.

UCF also wants to run the ball, it shortens the game, they don’t play nearly as fast as Memphis and I don’t think that’s being taken into consideration here.  I think that gives us more value in the #.  SMU’s defense has been great against the run, which is the strength of UCF’s offense, but a closer look reveals they have played only two top 50 rushing offenses, and UCF is the best ranking 28th when we average ypc, and epa rush offense.  The average rank of the other rushing offenses faced is 90.6.  TCU ran for 170 yards 5.67ypc, SMU won that game, but TCU’s defense is awful.  North Texas outside top 50 in EPA, but inside top 50 in rushing ypc, ran for 125.  UCF brings the best defense that SMU has faced all year, as well as the best rushing offense.  That is value at +7.

East Carolina +5 2.2% play 

Pitt -6.5 2.2% play 

South Carolina +18.5 3.3% play

This is far too many points in my opinion as Florida really does not have a ton of motivation the week after Georgia and being a 4 loss team.  They also are on the road facing a South Carolina team off the bye, and a South Carolina team that does play good defense, and has faced the tougher schedule.  There has not been a meeting between these two decided by more than 14 points since 2012.  Both teams play slow, which should keep the clock ticking, and Dan Mullen has shown he is fine playing conservatively on the road. 

South Carolina will get Zeb Noland starting here at QB he’s been their best option, but I think they may actually be able to get the running game going.  They average over a yard more per carry at home, and Florida has had major issues in run defense at times this year ranking 64th in ypc they have allowed 2.02 ypc more on the road than at home.  So that’s likely the route South Carolina takes in this game in my opinion while they have struggled running the ball they have faced an average run defense ranking 45th in ypc.

South Carolina’s defense has been a top 50 unit ranking 46th vs. the run, and even better at home and 25th in epa pass defense.  They have allowed 1 passing TD and 6 INT’s at home this year, so I don’t expect Dan Mullen to pass very often here on the road especially since his QB’s have had TO issues with 9 INT in 4 road games they are -5 TO Margin on the road, while South Carolina is +3.  Expect a conservative game for Florida here that gets them the win, but South Carolina at 4-4 is fighting for bowl eligibility off a bye and have played very hard for Beamer. This is also a night game at home for South Carolina and we can expect 75,000+.

Boise +5 2.2% play 

Marshall -1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Florida Atlantic is over rated, and they have an over rated head coach in Willie Taggart.  Marshall’s DC Lance Guidry was also the safeties coach at FAU last seasons and is very familiar with the Owls’ defensive personnel.  FAU offensive numbers are bull shit.  They average 30.3 ppg on the season, and 44.75ppg have come in their 4 games against shitty defenses.  An fcs foe, and 3 defenses that rank 119th, 118th, and 127th in yards per play. Marshall ranks 24th in that category.  Against top ypp defenses FAU is 1-3, and scoring only 15.75ppg.  Last week they scored 28 vs. UTEP, which looks great, but it’s misleading thus giving us value in this spot with Marshall.  FAU pulled off the upset, but they were outgained 436 to 279 in the game.  Marshall has a huge advantage on the defensive line ranking 6th in pressure rank while FAU Ranks 113th in protecting their QB.  Against the top 2 pressure rate defenses, Air Force & UAB, FAU scored a total of 21 points, and N’kosi Perry had 1 passing TD and 4 INT’s.

Marshall has had turnover issues, and that’s really the story here, and while FAU has been able to force turnovers, I don’t see Marshall having issues, because they are going up against arguably the worst run defense they have faced all year.  FAU ranks 107th in epa run defense, 102nd in defensive ypc.  Very similar to FIU team that they beat 38-0 last week.  FIU also had a good running team, and Marshall who had been struggling to stop the run seemed to fix the issues in their bye really holding FIU in check to 108 yards on 31 carries and 0 points.  Marshall’s offense had 10 rushing TD’s in their last two games while scoring 49 and 38 points.  FAU is not going to be able to stop the run, and Grant Wells is fully capable of passing the ball, while FAU ranks 111th at getting pressure.  Marshall has dominated their trips into the state of Florida over the past decade and it is very important that they continue that as they recruit a ton of players from the state.

Arkansas -4 2.2% play

Arkansas comes into this game well rested, and well prepared, and the style of defense they play should give Miss State’s pass offense issues.  They had 3 int’s in last year’s game and this defense is much improved, they are 34th in epa pass defense, 20th in QB rating defense, 35th ins uccess rate defense, and they are only allowing 31.25% conversions on third downs, and 42% of red zone trips at home to end in a TD. 

On the flip side Miss State’s defense has been stout, but they are now on the road facing a fresh team that can run the ball and pass, and have a dual threat QB who can score in the red zone.  Arkansas is the far more balanced team, and they are hungry for an SEC win.  They also get the extra time to come up with a plan and study the route tree of Mike Leach’s offense, which is always an advantage for an opposing defense.  It’s very similar to facing the triple option, you aren’t used to seeing it but when you do have extra time it’s a benefit, and I don’t think it’s being calculated into the number.  Barry Odom’s defense also plays 3 DL and drops guys in coverage so if they can force some TO’s again they win this game by 7.  Part of the reason Miss State beat Kentucky was they forced 4 turnovers, but Arkansas ranks 10th in offensive possession TO%.

Purdue +3 3.3% play

Michigan State off a huge come from behind win against their rival Michigan and they are 8-0 maybe looking ahead on their schedule past Purdue?  I love the match up here and we saw struggles from Michigan State on the road against Rutgers it was a 14-13 game late in the 2nd quarter before Michigan State’s WR Nailor hit them with a 65 yard reception.  In fact Rutgers gave up 63, 65, and 63 yard TD’s to Nailor and a 94 yard run.  Purdue is 9th in 10+ yard plays allowed, and rank 11th in epa pass defense, and Nailor is ? for this game.  They went on the road to face Indiana, and were outgained, but came away with the 20-15 win, because Indiana could not score in the red zone.  Purdue could have much of the same issues that Indiana had, but I think Purdue’s offense which is pass heavy matches up well against the weakness of Michigan State, which is their pass defense.  Michigan State ranks 113th in 10+ yard passing plays allowed while Purdue ranks 12th in 10+ yard passing plays.  I think David Bell has a big game, and Purdue just got back Sr. veteran Anthrop to add some depth.  Purdue 19-7 ATS last 26 as a dog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog, the dog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and Purdue already proven they can win these big games against ranked opponents as they knocked off Iowa on the road with ease.  We were on that game and we are on Purdue here.  

TCU +7 -120 2% play  / TCU +210 1% PLAY

TCU fired Gary Patterson, but offered him to finish the season and he declined.  However, he has been around practice helping with the defense, and Jerry Kill takes over as HC who has been here before.  I see him trying to get a win for his dear friend GP.  Plenty of talent still on TCU, and they’re a TD home dog in a rivalry game where the dog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two.

TCU still has a top 25 offense, and while Baylor’s defense has been great they really have only played Iowa State who had a top 30 pass and run offense.  Iowa State put up 29 points and nearly doubled Baylor in yards, but still lost at Baylor.  Actually, the only top offenses that Baylor has faced they have done so at home winning 38-24 over BYU, 31-29 over Iowa State, 31-24 over Texas, trailed 21-10 in the third quarter.  I see no reason why TCU can’t rally to beat an undefeated Baylor who could be looking ahead to Oklahoma next week at home.  TCU really has nothing to lose, and this is a Baylor defense that allowed Texas State who ranks 118th in ypp to score 20 points.  Baylor has not really played anyone on the road and their only loss came on the road at Oklahoma St. 

Okl St / West Virginia Under 49 2.2% play

This has been a defensive game the last two years, and I think it remains that way this year.  West Virginia’s defensive strength is their run defense, and Oklahoma State wants to run the ball 62% of the time.  Oklahoma State’s offense has really struggled on the road scoring just 21 at Boise, 21 at Iowa State, and the 32 at Texas was a bit misleading. 

West Virginia has put up points in back to back weeks, but Oklahoma State’s defense poses a different threat.  Against Iowa State they also played nearly a perfect game going 9-15 on third down, and 4-5 in the red zone.  I don’t think that will continue, and Oklahoma State has held this offense in check the last two years.  Oklahoma State ranks 33rd in success rate defense, 14th in epa run defense, and 19th in epa pass defense.  West Virginia is 110th in seconds per play, and I think we are getting an inflated line based on recent results form both teams including Oklahoma State’s 55 points a week ago against a bad Kansas team. West Virginia is also elite in red zone defense allowing just 35% TD’s, while Oklahoma State checks in at 50%, and both teams are outside the top 50 in explosive offense while the defenses both rank in the top 30 in explosive plays allowed.

Auburn +4.5 2.2% play

Exactly who has Texas AM beat other than the big win against Alabama in which they were out gained by over 140 yards?  Kent State (-1.1 YPP), Colorado (-2.3 YPP), New Mexico (-1.4 YPP), Missouri (-0.6 YPP), and South Carolina (-0.6 YPP), Alabama (+1.7 ypp)  and they lost to Arkansas and Miss State (+0.1).  The Alabama win was certainly impressive, but they were out gained in that game.  Their average opponent YPP differential is -0.4.  Auburn meanwhile is +0.9, against a challenign schedule of opponents +0.28.

Auburn has very quietly been playing great football and nobody is talking about it.  They lost 34-10 to Georgia, but if Bo Nix receivers don’t drop those balls it could have been a completely different game.  Maybe nobody is talking about it, because there is no Gus Malzahn coaching controversy?  Bo Nix has played extremely well on the road this year and he’s not getting any credit.  Possibly the best thing Bryan Harsin has done as a HC was bench Nix against Georgia State.  The drops his receivers had earlier in the year seem to have faded, Bo Nix footwork has dramatically improved and he gets another opportunity to prove people wrong. 

From a statistical perspective Auburn is the better offense and has faced the tougher schedule.  Nothing wrong with losing at Penn State in a white out, but being in that game late, and losing to Georgia at home.  I think the Aggies are getting far too much credit for that win over Alabama.  This Texas A&M is nothing special, and while Zach Calzada has played better of late, he’s still nothing special completing just 55.3% of his passes, 6.6 yards per pass attempt 12 TD / 7 INT ratio.  Aggies rank 77th in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO, while Auburn ranks 17th.  I think these teams are pretty even, and the game will go down to the wire.  A&M’s defense has been mostly a wall, but where they have shown vulnerabilities is in their run defense specifically against mobile QB’s, which Bo Nix is.  Colorado’s Lewis had 76 rushing yards, KJ Jefferson had 50 in their 20-10 win,  Kent State’s Crum had 60.  Nix the last two years has run the ball 23 times for 87 yards against A&M.  Nothing special, but the difference is he has developed as a passer, and that adds another dynamic to this game.  Bo Nix is clearly the better QB here.

I don’t really see this glaring edge that A&M has in the game other than they have a bye, and they beat Alabama.  You could say Auburn dominated Arkansas while Arkansas dominated Texas A&M.  Auburn won’t be phased by the environment at night at A&M.  They have gone into Death Valley and came back and won, played extremely well at Penn State in a white out, and won in front of 73K fans at Arkansas 38-23.

Memphis +4.5

SMU off a dream crushing loss against Houston as they gave up a 100 yard kickoff return for a TD.  Still we have over 70% of the action on SMU here against a 4 loss Memphis team that’s off a bye +1 extra day.  QB Seth Henigan is still ? here with a hand injury, but I think he will go, but if he doesn’t, Memphis will definitely have a better game plan for the dual threat Parish in this game, and he’ll get to go up against a pass defense that ranks 117th in epa compared to UCF who ranked 28th.

SMU was undefeated, and now they need help to get into the AAC Championship game.  I think they are a bit over rated when you consider their opponent average ypp differential is -1.01, and they are only +0.8 ypp.  Compare that with Memphis who is +1 ypp vs. -0.5.  Memphis YPP differential is better than Houston’s.  SMU also needs to be able to run the ball on the road in order to win.  They average just 2 ypc against Houston, and last year in their losses they averaged 2.79 ypc compared to over 5 in their wins, and in 2019 they average over a yard less in their losses than their wins.  Memphis defensive strength is their run defense, and they haeld both Navy and Texas San Antonio’s running games in check at the Liberty Bowl.  Navy ran 65 times for just 198 yards, while UTSA ran 62 for 205.  SMU obviously passes the ball more, but I like Memphis with the extra week to prepare to come in with a good game plan, and I think their offense will be able to score some points against a defense that ranks 90th in YPP, and that is coming against an average offensive opponent ranking 87th.  Memphis ranks 30th.  I think UCF is better than SMU, and I think Memphis is better than Houston.  Tons of value here at +4.

Nebraska +14.5 1.1% play

Buy low situation on Nebraska.  If you take away the name, and look at the stats Nebraska should not be a 14.5 point dog at home.  They are +1.7 ypp against an opponent ypp diff of +0.125.  Oregon is +1.3 against +0.11.  Ohio State ranks 10th in rushing ypc defense, but they have faced an average rush ypc ranked 82.  The two teams that were good at running the ball scored 31 and 35 points against them in Oregon and Minnesota.  Adrian Martinez has to play his best game and avoid the turnovers for Nebraska to win this game, and possibly save Scott Frost’s job.

Ohio State has shown some weaknesses over the season.  They have struggled against mobile QB’s, Anthony Brown had 10 carries for 65 yards.  Martinez is better at running the ball, and Nebraska has never had issues running the ball on Ohio State the last two years.  Ohio State also has had trouble guarding TE’s and the middle of the field.  Nebraska’s Austin Allen should have a big game here.  Nebraska ranks 26th in epa run defense.  Ohio State really struggled on OL vs. Penn State running the ball in the red zone as they went 1-6.  Nebraska has been very good in red zone defense especially at home where they have held opponents to just 38%.  There are a lot of great things at play here to think that Nebraska will stay in this game.  They have lost 6 games, but all six have been by single digits with 4 of those 6 on the road.  They’re at home here, and will have a chance to pull of a major upset.  We should get max effort from Nebraska.

Army +3 -115 2.5% play  

Low total here and the total has gone under 39-9-1 the last 49 meetings.   This game will be on a neutral field in Arlington Texas.  I think that will help Army as they won’t have to travel to play at elevation, which they typically had problems with in the past when traveling on the road to face Air Force.  I think Jeff Monken has sort of figured out Air Force, and Army has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings, and the last 4 have been decided by 3, 4, 3 pts.  Looking at the past 3 match ups between these two I don’t really see any glaring difference that would allow Air Force to win this one going away.  Army has faced a far tougher schedule, and while they are off 3 straight losses, that’s giving us extra value here.  The last three games were against Ball State,  last year’s MAC Champion, Wisconsin, and Wake Forest, the #9 team in the country.  They also played all 3 teams tight, and had to do it without their leading rusher, and QB Christian Anderson.  It’s no surprise that 5 turnovers happened over those 3 games.  Anderson has been practicing and will play against Air Force.  Last year Anderson rushed 18 times for 85 yards vs. Air Force, and in 2019 he missed the game and Army lost. 

Haazig Daniels is not 100% and is questionable, but will likely go at QB for Air Force, and last year he threw 3 interceptions against Army.  Army’s defense looks worse than last year overall, but I think some of that relates to the strength of competition.  They have faced two top 10 ypp offenses already.  This will be an entertaining game, and if Air Force wins they’ll get the Commander-N-Chief Trophy, but I trust Jeff Monken.  Air Force had and extra week to prepare last year and lost 7-10, in 2017 Monken had an extra week to prepare and they beat Air force 21-0.  Both teams come into the game with extra time and I think Monken is the better coach.  Army has outgained Air force by over 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 match ups and are +5 TO margin.

Boston College +135 5.5% MAX POD

I'm taking BC on the money line here.  There are stron grumors that Phil Jurkovec will be back at QB tonight for the Red Bandana Game.  Red Bandana game is something that BC players have in their brain all season.  They ahve Red Bandana practice drills, and we know we will get a max effort out of Boston College.  Boston College has the better run defense, and rushing offense in my opinion and if Jurkovec is back it will be another boost for a struggling offense.  They also lost to Virginia Tech on the road 40-14 last year, but it was a 17-14 game in the 3Q.  Boston College had 5 turnovers in the game.  They have only turned the ball over 3 times at home this season.  

Boston College has struggle dlosign 4 in a row, and the last two have been really bad, but those games were on the road, and against Louisville and Syracuse who have an elite part of their offense.  Both rank top 25 in rushing offense, and have a good running defense to go along with it making it a challenging task.  Virginia Tech on the other hand ranks 90th in epa run offense, and 122nd in epa run defense, they also rank 92nd in epa passing offense.  I'm not a big fan of Braxton Burmeister at QB.  He's a heck of an athlete and a threat in the running game, but until recently has not been a good QB on the road.

Ohio +7 2.2% play 

Fresno State +100 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Fresno is by far the more balanced team especially on offense, while San Diego State is 105th in ypp, and that has come against an opponent ypp differential of -0.7.  Fresno State is 42nd in ypp offense, and 35th in ypp defense, and it has come against an opponent with an average ypp differential of 0.08.  Fresno beat UCLA on the road and shut down their rushing offense, that is far superior to San Diego State’s.  That was not a fluke as they also shut down Oregon’s rushing offense, and lost by only 7 points on the road.  I think we are getting some line value, because Fresno lost to Hawaii on the road, but they had 6 turnovers in that game.  With 16 turnovers on the season is concerning, but 12 of the 16 have come against Oregon, UCLA, and Hawaii who all rank in the top 25 on defensive TO % per possession.  As good as San Diego State is they rank 120th in defensive to % per possession.  Fresno who ranks 20th on defense in the category will actually have the advantage here as San Diego State ranks 109th in % of their possessions ending in TO’s.

Fresno is the best defense San Diego State has faced thus far ranking 18th in success rate defense, 40th in epa run defense, and 17th in epa pass defense.  On the flip side Fresno is the best offense that San Diego State has faced.  San Diego State has not faced a single team that can pass as their average opponent epa pass offense ranks 99.1.  I believe this is the game that San Diego State’s offense finally catches up with them.  It’s also not easy defensively the week after playing a triple option offense.  Fresno wins on the road.

Virginia +2.5 3.3% play

Bronco Mendenhall return to Prov where spent more than a decade coaching BYU.  Mendenhall only left, because he wanted the University to join the Big 12 and not remain Independent.  Now BYU is going to the Big 12.  Whether he holds any animosity, I don’t know, but I know that BYU was near and dear to his heart and had family who played for the BYU.  This game clearly will mean a bit extra to him.

BYU is ranked, but I don’t think they are quite as good.  They’re getting a ton of credit for their 4-0 record vs. the PAC12, but this is a different type of match up against Virginia who has arguably the best QB in the nation in Brennan Armstron, and they are playing FAST, ranking 27th at 23.4 seconds per play.  BYU’s pass defense has shown vulnerabilities, and they really have not played anybody that passes the ball 65% of the time so I expect this will be a bit of a culture shock.  Washington State passes 58% of the time but BYU got them the week after their HC was fire and they only won by 2.  Washington State also plays slow, offering BYU plenty of time to regroup defensively.  Baylor who put 38 points up on BYU, also plays very slow, Utah, Arizona State also very slow.  This will be a big challenge for BYU’s defense, as Virginia is 15th in success rate, 18th in epa run offense, 13th in epa passing offense.  Virginia is also #1 in the nation in 10+ and 20+ yard plays while BYU is 105th in allowing 10+ yard plays.

Virginia’s defense has been bad, because of their offense, but they have been great in red zone defense allowing just 44% TD’s.  If they can avoid the big plays here, and I think they can do a better job than they have, because Bronco is very familiar with this coaching staff that was here under him, and he recruited Jaren Hall.  Virginia is flying under the radar and so is their QB Brennan Armstrong.  They have a bye after this game, and a lot to prove in my opinion and I expect them to win this game outright.

North Carolina +3.5 3.3% play

This is the first game North Carolina is not a favorite this year and while it has been a very disappointing year they get a chance here off the bye to have some positive momentum by going into Notre Dame and winning.  This is not the same Notre Dame team as last year as they rank 96th in ypp, and North Carolina’s defense is actually improved compared to last year’s unit.  They rank 60th in ypp against an average opponent ypp offense 57.  Compare that to last year’s North Carolina defense ranking 70th, vs an avy ypp off 72. 

North Carolina’s offense has taken a step back, but they are playing with no pressure here.  They’re not expected to win, and I think they can have some success.  This is by far the best offense Notre Dame has faced to date, and we have seem some vulnerabilities this season with this defense.  They were actually outgained last week vs. USC,  they gave up 291 passing yards to Purdue, 297 to Cinci, and 299 to USC.  Now they have to play without Kyle Hamilton, a consensus top 10 pick in the NFL draft next year.  Notre Dame held USC to 16 points, but North Carolina runs a different offense with 13% more runs in their RPO heavy attack.  North Carolina also off the bye, and should be putting all their effort into this game.  They had an extra week to prepare in last year 17-31 loss, but so did Notre Dame, and Notre Dame was undefeated.  Here Notre Dame is off their rivalry game with USC, and they just aren’t the same team.  I think this will be a tight game and North Carolina will have a chance to win the game outright.  At worse they have a chance for the backdoor cover late.

Auburn -3 3.3% play 

This is a brutal stretch for Ole Miss, and they have to go on the road to face a very under rated Auburn team that is coming off a bye.  Ole Miss is banged up without both their starting Guards, and 3 of their top 5 receivers are either out or questionable for this game.  Matt Corral is having a fantastic season, but his QB is 56 points lower in road games, and Ole Miss for all the hype they get have played just 3 top 50 defenses since last year and have gone 1-2 in those games.

Auburn ranks 26th in run defense, and should be able to hold Ole Miss in check at least in the red zone especially with Ole Miss missing their starting guards, and Auburn’s defense has the speed on the outside.  ON the flip side Ole Miss has made strides on defense, but they still rank 117th in success rate and 110th in epa run defense.  Tank Bigsby off the bye should be a lot fresher and I really have enjoyed Bo Nix this season.  Nix has over come being benched in the Georgia State game and has really put together arguably his best performances of his career.  The road game against Arkansas was the best he’s ever played and he again will face a bad defense, and he gest to do so at home.  Auburn flying under the radar right now, they seemed to have fixed some of the issues with drops by their receivers and they should win this game by 7 or more!

Boise State -2.5 2% play 

Colorado State has not beaten anyone, and they’re 0-10 vs. Boise State, with an average spread of 17.6 points, but why is the spread only 2.5 points?  Boise has lost 4 games this season, but Colorado State lost to Vanderbilt at home for cyring out loud.  Boise State has by far played a tougher schedule with BYU, Oklahoma St, and UCF (healthy) in their non-conference schedule.  All 4 of Boise State’s losses came against good offenses, and Colorado State just does not constitute as a good offense.  They rank 87th in ypp, 83rd in ypc, 95th in success rate, there Is not a single category that they rank top 50 in.  They want to run the ball but they rank 110th in epa run. 

Colorado State’s defense especially the defensive line has been great with 30 sacks they rank 3rd in ypp defense, and 2nd in sack %, but who have they played?  The average epa pass offense ranks 93rd.  Boise State has a QB, they protect him pretty well and they rank 50th in epa pass offense and that has come against a very challenging group of defenses on the year.  Boise State off a bye here, and 3-0 ATS on the road.  I think they’ll be able to stop the run, and move the chains on offense with their passing game.  Colorado State has held opponents to 26% on third down, but the average opponent third down offense converting only 33%.  Boise comes into the game converting 45.71% of their third downs.  HC Steve Addazio is just not a great coach and he threw his players under the bus after the loss at Utah State last week.  Ironically Utah State was the best passing offense they faced all year and they rank 81st in QB Rating.

Florida +14.5 2%

If you don’t look at the records, and blank out the teams the stats are pretty close between these two. Georgia ranks 9th in ypp offense, Florida ranks 3rd.  Georgia ranks #1 in ypp defense, and Florida ranks 23rd.  Florida’s defensive number surprised me a bit when looking at this match up and they have clearly faced a tougher schedule of offenses.  I just can’t forget about how Georgia looked against Clemson to open the season winning 10-3, on a pick six. 

Florida under Dan Mullen has seemed to play up/down depending on the competition.  Dan Mullen off a bye should be able to put together a game plan to put some points on the board, and Kirby Smart has been known to be extremely conservative in big games, and I don’t know if that changes here.  Georgia has not been explosive in their running game with only 2 rushes over 30 yards, and Florida has only allowed 1 rush over 30 yard all season.  Georgia is 83rd in epa run offense, and that’s the route they will use to attack Florida.  They’ll be able to move the ball, but they rank 121st at 29 sec/play, it will be hard to cover a 14 point spread with Florida also running the ball and keeping this clock moving.

Both teams have QB controversies, but Florida’s group is much more dynamic, but also more turnover worthy.  I think we will see more of Anthony Richardson, while Georgia will probably get JT Daniels back in the mix, but Daniels has struggled against top defenses, and Florida ranks 21st in epa pass defense, and 19th in sack %.

Iowa State -7 2.2% play 

I backed West Virginia +4.5 last week and they won outright on the road against TCU, a very bad defense.  West Virginia will return home to play Iowa State, a defense built to stop the style of offense West Virginia runs.  West Virginia under Neal Brown needs to run the ball.  This year 4.71ypc in wins, 2.60 in losses, and last year 4.64 ypc in wins, but 2.10 in losses.  The last two years they have run for a total of 95 yards in 2 games vs. Iowa State and have lost 20-80.  Just like Matt Campbell has struggled against Iowa State, he has owned West Virginia and Neal Brown.  West Virginia under Neal Brown has faced 9 top 50 ypp defenses, and they have gone 1-8 in those games averaging just 13.8 points per game, and have lost on average by 21.8 ppg.

Where is West Virginia’s edge in this game? I just don’t see it, and Iowa State is playing with a ton of momentum right now.  They are an experienced team on a quest to get back to the Big 12 Championship.  West Virginia’s weakness vs. the pass ranking 98th in epa is alarming, and Iowa State is balanced offensively.  The last balanced offense West Virginia faced was Baylor who beat them 45-20.  Iowa State outgained Baylor on the road by 200+ yards.  Iowa State wins in a blow out.

Michigan / Michigan State U51 - 3.3% play 

Texas +3 -120 3% PLAY

Baylor had all the momentum with back to back impressive wins over West Virginia and BYU, and that is not when you want to go on a bye.  Texas off back to back losses and in a tough three game stretch having faced TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St, and that’s the exact time you want to go on a bye.

On paper Baylor look sto have the better run offense and defense, but Baylor’s rushing attack has feasted on poor run defense.  75% of their yards and TD’s have come against an average epa run defense ranked 110th + FCS foe, who they had 400 yards rushing.  Texas clearly not a defensive juggernaut ranking 112thn in epa run defense, but they have faced an average epa run offense ranking 41st.  They’ve proven that they can keep good rushing attacks in check as they held TCU and Texas Tech under 200 yards rushing.

Baylor has faced only two offenses who can run the ball in Iowa State and Oklahoma State.  They lost by 10 to Oklahoma St, and against Iowa State they were outgained by 200+ yards and were extremely lucky to get the win.  Texas also has the added dynamic of a running QB, and we saw Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders run for 76 yards against Baylor.

TO’s and special teams are pretty even between these two, and while I do give Baylor some home field advantage it’s not quite as tough when they host a team from Texas.  Why?  Texas fans travel, and you don’t have the added advantage of the weather

Iowa +3.5 1.1% play 

I feel like we are getting an extra point of value here.  Iowa lost to Purdue, and Wisconsin beat Purdue so it seems so easy to just take Wisconsin here.  I’m not going to over react to recency bias as Wisconsin has always dominated Purdue, and Purdue under Jeff Brohm has dominated Iowa.  I’m sure if Purdue played Wisconsin first then Iowa things would have been a little different.

The total is as low as you will see at 36, and that just makes the 3.5 much more valuable.  Points will be at a premium with these two stout defenses I will look at some of the intangibles or hidden factors in this game to be that more valuable as well.  Iowa has two major advantages in this game in addition to coming off a bye.  They rank 2nd in forcing turnovers at 20% of opponent possessions ending in TO’s.  Wisconsin’s offense ranks 126th in percentage of their possessions ending in a TO at 18.8%.  Special Teams is another huge facto here for as Iowa ranks 2nd in overall special teams while Wisconsin ranks 90th, and have had issues with muffed punts, and have given up a kickoff return TD. 

I also think Iowa has the edge at QB with Petras who has not been amazing, but Graham Mertz has been completely awful this year and Wisconsin ranks 129th in epa pass offense.  I like Iowa’s offense to come up with some creative ways to score some points in this game especially with extra time to prepare.  Iowa is 15-9 ATS since 2006 with extra time to prepare averaging 28.4ppg, and have had only 5 games where they scored 14 points or less.

Rutgers –120 3% play 

This is about as poor of a situation as a team could be in with Illinois off a 9 OT game, and a huge upset over Penn State as a 24.5 point dog facing a team coming off a bye.  I also like Rutgers in the match up as Rutgers ranks 25th in epa run defense, and that has come against an average opponent epa run offense ranking 47.8.  All Illinois can do is run the ball, and while they rank 42nd in epa run, against a tough schedule they are just 1-3 when facing a top 50 run defense.  Rutgers held two run first opponents who have better rushing attacks in Syracuse and Michigan to season lows in rushing yards and points, and both of those games were on the road. 

Syracuse only managed 7 points -23pts off their season average, and they rushed for only 67 yards and 2.23 ypc, which is -175 yards and -3.43 ypc from their season average.  Michigan managed only 20 points -17.7 off their season average, and 112 rushing yards which was -141 yards off their season average.  Both of those offenses have better passing offenses, and better run defenses than Illinois.  If that holds true in this game Illinois will score in the single digits.  Now I know I’m cherry picking two teams, but Syracuse and Michigan are the closest to Illinois.  Rutgers did struggle stopping the run in their two games before the bye, but it was clear they were just worn out from the 3 game streak of having to play 3 TOP 10 teams in Michigan, Ohio St, and Michigan St.

Rutgers offense should be able to move the ball a bit here in my opinion.  While they have struggled at time it is closely related to the strength of schedule.  Illinois has been solid on defense, but they have had issues containing mobile QB’s.  Charlotte’s QB who is not very mobile rushed for 35 yards, Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong had 31 yards on only 5 carries.  Adrian Martinez had 111 yards, and UTSA’s Frank Harris had 33 on 8 carries.  Rutgers, QB Vedral should be able to score some points here and I feel Illinois is going to really struggle offensively.

Indiana +175 2% play

Indiana is down to their 3rd string QB here and the line jumped 3 points, which I don’t think is warranted.  Donaven McCulley will take over at QB, and he’s the #2 prospect out of the state of Indiana last year, a 4* QB with dual threat capability and is going to give this offense an added dimension offensively.  Maryland in my opinion really does not deserve to be nearly a TD favorite against anyone.  They don’t have a home field advantage really, and Indiana has faced a far tougher schedule.

Indiana’s average opponent defense faced ranks 22.5 from a YPP perspective, and their opponent YPP differential is +1.68.  Maryland’s defense is 83rd in ypp, 104th in success rate.  They have played teams that are elite offensively and defensively.  Only 3 other teams have faced an average opponent ypp differential of +1, and the nation average is +0.01yard.  Maryland comes into this game +0 ypp differential, but it’s honestly worst since they lost 2 of their top WR, and their schedule got tougher.  Some of Maryland’s #’s are from earlier in the season when they were at full strength.  Indiana dealing with injuries too, but I feel they have a coaching advantage here, and they have proven that by winning the last two match ups the past two years.  The past two years they have been able to run the ball extremely well +2 ypc compared to their season average, and I expect they will get the running game going here again today.  Maryland really does not have a significant advantage in this game and I’m going with the better coached team with the better overall defense.

South Florida +10 3.3% play 

NC State -3 3.3% play

I wanted to get out in front of this as it's going to go to -3.5 I believe.  I faded Miami their last two games and I'm fading them again here.  I just don't think Manny Diaz is a good coach, and now at 2-4.  They're missing their QB King for the rest of the season, and their top two RB's and now go against arguably the best defense they have faced all year, and a team that is playing for an ACC Championship.  NC State has all the motivation and momentum and a huge coaching advantage here.

NC State also has a little revenge here after losing at home 44-41, but Cam'ron Harris gone, and D'eriq King is gone.  King went nuts last year with 105 yards rushing and 31-41 430 passing yards 5 TD and 0INT.  While Tyler Van Dyke has been decent so far he has gone against Virginia's defense ranked 105th in YPP, and North Carolina ranked 103rd in EPA pass defense.  NC State is a balanced defense this year ranking 21st in yp, 50th in epa pass defense, and 24th in epa run defense.  NC State is also top 50 in TO % per posession on both sides of the ball, while Miami ranks 118th and 111th.   

GA Tech / Virginia Over 63 2.2% play

Both of these teams like to play fast at 23 seconds per snap.  Virginia’s offense is all about the pass behind Brennan Armstrong and it’s a good match up as Georgia Techs’ defensive strength is against the run.  They rank 6th in epa run defense, but 111th in epa pass defense.  Their defensive strength is not going to help them in this game at all.  For Georgia Tech we saw them score 31 and 45 points against bad defenses, and Virginia clearly constitutes as a bad defense considering they have given up 28+ points in 4 games this season.  Virginia also ranks 91st in epa pass, and 81st in epa run defense.  Georgia Tech has a mobile QB and have shown ability to move the ball at times.  Scoring 45 vs. North Carolina, 21 vs. a good Pitt defense, and 31 vs. Duke.  Georgia Tech also off a bye, and last year they won 46-27 off a bye, and Bronco Mendenhall could be a little bit focused on next week’s game against BYU on the road as he returns back to the team he coached for over a decade prior to coming to Virginia.