Cappers Sports Picks

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Tampa Bucs -2.5 -114 5.5% NFL POD

Just who have the Rams beaten of late that is impressive?  They played very poorly down the stretch and were fortunate and went 3-5 vs. playoff teams this year with 2 wins coming against a Cardinal team that was obviously having issues down the stretch.  They also beat Tampa in LA, but Tampa out gained them, and had a monster game on deck as Brady was set to return to New England.  Stafford played out of his mind on third down in that game, and I don’t know that I see him playing perfectly again.  If he does we tip our hat, and take the loss.

I think Tampa has some value here, because there is still this idea that the offense is going to struggle without Brown, and Godwin, but there are plenty of weapons left in Tampa.  Rumors Lenoard Fournette will return, and it looks like both Wirfs/Jensen will play in this game along the offensive line.  Brady at home won’t be phased by the Rams, while Stafford just won his first playoff game in his career.  Stafford had issues with turnovers all year and they go against a Bucs team that ranked 7th in TO/drive while the Rams were 20th in offensive TO’s/drive.  If there is going to be a turnover that impacts this game it’s going to be on the Rams side.

49ers +3.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD E

Right now you can get +102 for +3 on the 49ers, if you wait long enough I suspect a +3.5 may pop at your book.  That's what I'm doing here, but righ tnow you can buy the half and grab the -115.

First of all the 49ers come from the much tougher division with 3 of the 4 teams in the playoffs, and the worst team being Seattle.  Each NFC West team played the AFC East 1x, all games were on the road, and the NFC West went 3-1 SU & ATS with margin of cover of 10.67 points.

Both teams had some key injuries throughout the year that impacted their teams so I’m not going to harp on the Cowboys injuries or the 49ers as they both had to go through adversity to get here.  Both teams went 4-4 vs. team’s with a +0.1 or more ypp differential, but it’s worth noting that all 4 of the 49ers losses came against top 10 run defenses in that cycle, and the Cowboys rank 20th in epa run defense, 16th in rushing defense dvoa.

49ers and Kyle Shanahan are built off their zone running scheme that operates on misdirection, speed, and RB with great natural ability to hit the correct hole.  This is a bad match up against an aggressive defense with speed like the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys could have some stops for loss, but overall the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball here.  The 49ers vs. bad run defenses (outside of the top 15) went 7-1 averaged 29.6 ppg, with a margin of victory of 12.42 points, and their only loss was by 2 against the top seeded Cowboys.

Much can be said about the 49ers pass defense as well that ranks 23rd in epa, and 16th in dvoa.  Cowboys when facing a bad pass defense went 8-2 this year, they averaged 36.8 ppg, with a margin of victory of 22.8 ppg, but in that sample is the horrible NFC East opponents including covid issues, and an Eagles team that rested all their players the last week of the season when the Cowboys put up 50+ points.  I think the Cowboys will get some points here for sure, but that’s also why I played 49ers over.  It’s also worth noting that 49ers pass defense has had issues, but their strength of opponent passing teams is very tough.  On average they faced 15th ranked passing offense when we blend passing dvoa and epa.  Compare that with the weakness of the Cowboys defense which faced an average run offense ranking 17.54.

Alabama +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

First off lets address the "sharp" vs. "public joe," because it does appear that 60% of the tickets are on Bama, and just 40% of the money.  I think many are number grabbers pointing to the fact that, hey Georgia was -6.5 on a neutral in the SEC Championship, and now they are -3 or even -2.5 in places.  The look ahead was actually 3.5 for that game, but Alabama struggled with Auburn and we get 3 points of line movement.  If anything this is great news for the Alabama side, because there is no rat poison for NIck Saban's players to feel overly confident even though they just beat this team by double digits.  It only helps that many of the radio and guys who say they are sharp are also on Georgia here.  Many of those guys that are said to be sharp, are not transparent on their records and don't win long term.  

Some other concerns here are the fact that Menchie is out for Alabama, and while that's a big loss, they replace him with another 5 star WR that has more talent in Ja"Corey Brooks who had 4 catches, 66 yards and a TD vs. Cincinnati.  There are some bumps and bruises on the right side of the offensive line, but those are being hush hush, and I think there won't be an issue.  Bryce Young can't play out of his mind again, but I think you have to factor in Brian Robinson is healthy again, and wasn't for the SEC Championship.  Jameson Williams is a difference maker and the main reason Alabama struggled vs. Auburn.  We saw the difference with him in the game, and I'm sure Georgia makes adjustments to take him out of the game, but that opens things up for Bolden, Billingsley, and Brooks and others in this passing game.

Georgia's offense in recent match ups has come out throwing on Alabama, mainly bc that seems to be the weakness of the defense, and it is again this year.  You can't ignore that Stetson Bennett has played better agaisnt Alabama in his last outing, but still he threw 2 interceptions, and I still question now that Alabama is able to take that game and make adjustments.  Honestly when we take out the two Alabama games he has had 13 opponents he's gone up against and they have had an average 73 ypp defense, and those teams who averaged 73rd rank ypp went against an opponent average of 59.3 ypp offense.  He's really only gone up against a total of 4 top 40 defenses including the two times against Alabama.  He struggled this year against Florida who ranked 39th in ypp, and he had a great game against Michigan, but they had extra month to prepare, and lets be honest Michigan was not the 8th ranked defense, they played an easy schedule of offenses averaging 73.5 in ypp.  Alabama ranks 7th, and their opponent average ypp offense is 51.  In my opinion Alabama's defense is totally getting disrespected with all the talk on Georgia's defense, which has flaws.  Their secondary does not have the speed to keep up with Alabama's receivers, and Alabama with their hurry up can take the defensive line out of the game.  It's really up to Stetson Bennett in this game, and can he make adjustments again to make his game better?  I just don't think the talent is there for him to pull something we haven't seen before, and going up against Nick Saban who will make his own adjustments from the last game.

Adjustments, and psychological advantage on the Alabama side. You really can't argue that.  2017 Georgia played Alabama in the National Championship game and led 13-0 at the half, but then adjustments and Saban went to a backup QB, and they outscored Georgia 26-10 to win in OT.  In fact Alabama has outscored Georgia in the second half 85-24 in the last 4 meetings including the 2017 game.  They trailed in 3 of the 4 in the first half 75-58.  So if we consider this second game of the season like a second half, where both teams have limited time to review and make adjustments, history tells us that Alabama is going to have the advantage, and I think that advantage is on their defense which is held Georgia to 6ppg in the second half of games.  Stetson Bennett could prove me wrong, but until I see it there is only one play here and it's on Alabama as a dog.

49ers +3.5 5.5% POD

Bengals +4 5.5% NFL POD

Arkansas -125 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama / Cinci Under 57.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Nick Saban, a month to prepare for tendencies and strengths, and I think the game plan will be to run the ball, and avoid turnovers.  Alabama came out running no huddle against Georgia, which made a lot of sense, and I think the offense looked great giving us an inflated total here.  Against Cinci, the way to attack them is in the running game. They boast two of the best corners in all of football, the #7 epa pass defense, and 18th sack %, but this defensive front is under sized.  Alabama without Menchie at WR, so I think the plan of attack will be on the ground, which obviously makes the under very attractive.

For Cinci's offense, I'm really not sure how they move the ball with consistency.  All of their big plays come on early downs, and you bet Alabama will be ready for that.  Desmond Ridder is really going to have to play the game of his life to win or put up points, because Alabama #2 in run defense, they're #41 in epa pass defense, and 8th in getting to the QB.  Ridder against good defenses have not been pretty and his offense has benefited largely from the Cinci defense forcing turnovers.  They rank 3rd in forced turnover percentage per drive, but Alabama is 9th on offensive TO% per drive.  I don't anticipate they will have that edge here.

Vikings +3.5 4.5% / Vikings +155 1% 

UTSA +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this game means more to UTSA, they will have the crowd edge in Frisco, TX and I’m a bit surprised they are dogs here, but the Mountain West just gets more respect than C-USA, but they are just 11-10 vs. C-USA in bowl games.  We already saw UTEP go toe to toe with Fresno State, and that was much more of a mismatch than this game.  In reality on paper UTSA is the better team, far more balanced overall where San Diego State is a very good team, but they have a very bad offense.  They’ll rely on running the ball, but they still rank just 83rd in EPA run, and they are going up against a very good run defense that play physical football, and ranks 29th in epa run defense. 

San Diego State played 3 top run defenses this year and scored 19, 20, and 20 points.  UTSA is without their star RB who opts out to prepare for the NFL draft, but if there is a position I’d want to lose, it would be RB.  They still have their leader Frank Harris at QB, and San Diego State’s defense has not faced a mobile QB this season.  IF you remember they played Utah gave up 31 points at home, won the game, but that was the first game for Cam Rising at QB, and he had 50 rushing yards against this San Diego State defense.  Facing a top defense is nothing new for UTSA and I think they’ll enjoy the challenge.  They faced 4 top 40 ypp defenses and averaged 35.5 points per game in those games eclipsing 27 or more points in each.

I have tremendous respect for Jeff Traylor he’s a winner, and they beat a Western Kentucky team in their Championship game that dominated in bowl season.  They have hit many goals this year, beating a Big 10 opponent, getting 12 wins, and a C-USA Championship, but going for a 13th win is something very special especially since it would be their first bowl win ever.  Jeff Traylor is one hell of a coach we backed them against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship, and it paid off and I’ll do it again here.  Traylor missed last year’s bowl game because of COVID protocols, and his team still nearly upset Louisiana Lafayette as a +14 dog.  They got behind 24-7, and crawled back to tie the game in the 4th.  This is a team that does not give up plays hard football, and I think they get the upset here.   Brady Hoke has had a great season, but I feel like the luck runs out here.  He’s just 2-3 in bowl games and when this defense played a top 50 ypp offense they went 1-1, but gave up 30 points in both games.  The only reason I’m not taking the money line here is these are two defensive teams, San Diego State plays a lot of close games, and the 3 points mean a lot more than getting +122.

Steelers -121 5.5% MAX

Bengals +115 5.5% MAX POD

NAVY +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I expect a tight game on a neutral field here.  The numbers favor Army, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule with Notre Dame and Cinci on their schedule and their opponent YPP differential are far different.  Navy has faced an average opponent YPP diff of +0.65 cmopared to Army -0.2.  The YPP differential, and opponent YPP differential leads me to believe that Army is the side, but you have to understand these two teams know each other, and anything over a TD I think is gold in this game.  This most resembles the 2018 game where Army was 7 point favorite, and pushed with a 17-10 win, but that was because they were +4 TO margin.

Army +11 TO margin in their wins and -4 in their losses.  Navy has a total of 8 to's on the season and rank 5th in posessions ending in a TO, Army ranks 10th.  I actually think Navy has the better run defense they rank 52nd in epa run defense comapred to Army who is 87th.  It doesn't look or seem like Navy is any better than last year, and last year was a complete disaster for Navy, but Army is slightly worse, and Navy has gotten a lot better.  Their average offensive and defensive standard line yards, power success, and stuff rate is 48th, Army's is 23.16.  Last year, when they were also +7.5 a true road game mind you.  They averaged 75th, while Army averaged 31st.  In 2018 when Navy was 7 point dog on a neutral they averaged 80th, while Army averaged 20th. 

I think this match-up is going to be a lot closer, and  Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than Army fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, lost by only 3 to East Carolina and at won at Tulsa who statistically are better than Army.  Navy'd DC, Brian Newberry has only given up 2 TD's in 2 games vs. Army so expect Navy to have an opportunity to win the game.

Chargers +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Under 53 5.5% MAX POD

Rams -1 5.5% MAX POD

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

UAB +4.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / UAB +170 1% bonus

Marshall was my POD last Saturday over FAU, and it was an easy cover, but Marshall continued to give up rushing yards 47-243 yards, but luckily FAU, and their poor coaching staff bailed us out.  That will not happen here as Bill Clark far better coach than Willie Taggart.  UAB held Marshall to 268 yards in their own building last year and there really is not much difference between last year’s UAB vs. Marshall.  Marshall was +1.4 vs. -0.6 ypp while UAB WAS +1.3 VS. -0.25.  This year, UAB +1 VS. -0.35, AND Marshall +1.6 vs. -0.53.  UAB also needs this game more as both sit at 4-1, UAB is trailing UTSA, and if they don’t win this game next week’s game won’t matter at all, while Marshall can afford to lose, and then beat Western Kentucky the last week of the season and win their division to get to the C-USA Championship.

UAB also has the goods in a team that I want to back on the road.  They have very good rushing offense ranked 10th in epa, they’re going against a Marshall defense that ranks 95th in ypc, and 93rd in epa run defense.  They have a very good defense ranking 24th in ypp, and can force Marshall into third and longs to let their elite pass rush get after Marshall.  They also rank 12th in defensive TO% per possession, while Marshall ranks 122nd on offense.  I don’t think Marshall can play a clean game here, while UAB can. The biggest difference between this year and last year’s match up is Marshall seems to have forgotten how to stop the run. Last year’ steam ranked 6th in ypc defense, and gave up 216 yards to UAB, but this year’s defense ranks 95th.  It’s not even because they have faced a tougher group of offenses.  UAB’S ranked 64th in epa run offense last year, and this year they rank 10th.  They ran for 127 yards at Georgia, which is the second most rushing yards Georgia has given up all year.  I think the wrong team is favored here UAB wins outright!

49ers MAX 5.5% NFL POD 

Marshall -1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Florida Atlantic is over rated, and they have an over rated head coach in Willie Taggart.  Marshall’s DC Lance Guidry was also the safeties coach at FAU last seasons and is very familiar with the Owls’ defensive personnel.  FAU offensive numbers are bull shit.  They average 30.3 ppg on the season, and 44.75ppg have come in their 4 games against shitty defenses.  An fcs foe, and 3 defenses that rank 119th, 118th, and 127th in yards per play. Marshall ranks 24th in that category.  Against top ypp defenses FAU is 1-3, and scoring only 15.75ppg.  Last week they scored 28 vs. UTEP, which looks great, but it’s misleading thus giving us value in this spot with Marshall.  FAU pulled off the upset, but they were outgained 436 to 279 in the game.  Marshall has a huge advantage on the defensive line ranking 6th in pressure rank while FAU Ranks 113th in protecting their QB.  Against the top 2 pressure rate defenses, Air Force & UAB, FAU scored a total of 21 points, and N’kosi Perry had 1 passing TD and 4 INT’s.

Marshall has had turnover issues, and that’s really the story here, and while FAU has been able to force turnovers, I don’t see Marshall having issues, because they are going up against arguably the worst run defense they have faced all year.  FAU ranks 107th in epa run defense, 102nd in defensive ypc.  Very similar to FIU team that they beat 38-0 last week.  FIU also had a good running team, and Marshall who had been struggling to stop the run seemed to fix the issues in their bye really holding FIU in check to 108 yards on 31 carries and 0 points.  Marshall’s offense had 10 rushing TD’s in their last two games while scoring 49 and 38 points.  FAU is not going to be able to stop the run, and Grant Wells is fully capable of passing the ball, while FAU ranks 111th at getting pressure.  Marshall has dominated their trips into the state of Florida over the past decade and it is very important that they continue that as they recruit a ton of players from the state.

Boston College +135 5.5% MAX POD

I'm taking BC on the money line here.  There are stron grumors that Phil Jurkovec will be back at QB tonight for the Red Bandana Game.  Red Bandana game is something that BC players have in their brain all season.  They ahve Red Bandana practice drills, and we know we will get a max effort out of Boston College.  Boston College has the better run defense, and rushing offense in my opinion and if Jurkovec is back it will be another boost for a struggling offense.  They also lost to Virginia Tech on the road 40-14 last year, but it was a 17-14 game in the 3Q.  Boston College had 5 turnovers in the game.  They have only turned the ball over 3 times at home this season.  

Boston College has struggle dlosign 4 in a row, and the last two have been really bad, but those games were on the road, and against Louisville and Syracuse who have an elite part of their offense.  Both rank top 25 in rushing offense, and have a good running defense to go along with it making it a challenging task.  Virginia Tech on the other hand ranks 90th in epa run offense, and 122nd in epa run defense, they also rank 92nd in epa passing offense.  I'm not a big fan of Braxton Burmeister at QB.  He's a heck of an athlete and a threat in the running game, but until recently has not been a good QB on the road.

Saints +4.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Fresno State +100 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Fresno is by far the more balanced team especially on offense, while San Diego State is 105th in ypp, and that has come against an opponent ypp differential of -0.7.  Fresno State is 42nd in ypp offense, and 35th in ypp defense, and it has come against an opponent with an average ypp differential of 0.08.  Fresno beat UCLA on the road and shut down their rushing offense, that is far superior to San Diego State’s.  That was not a fluke as they also shut down Oregon’s rushing offense, and lost by only 7 points on the road.  I think we are getting some line value, because Fresno lost to Hawaii on the road, but they had 6 turnovers in that game.  With 16 turnovers on the season is concerning, but 12 of the 16 have come against Oregon, UCLA, and Hawaii who all rank in the top 25 on defensive TO % per possession.  As good as San Diego State is they rank 120th in defensive to % per possession.  Fresno who ranks 20th on defense in the category will actually have the advantage here as San Diego State ranks 109th in % of their possessions ending in TO’s.

Fresno is the best defense San Diego State has faced thus far ranking 18th in success rate defense, 40th in epa run defense, and 17th in epa pass defense.  On the flip side Fresno is the best offense that San Diego State has faced.  San Diego State has not faced a single team that can pass as their average opponent epa pass offense ranks 99.1.  I believe this is the game that San Diego State’s offense finally catches up with them.  It’s also not easy defensively the week after playing a triple option offense.  Fresno wins on the road.

Colts +4 5.5% NFL POD

Kansas State -105 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

This is a max effort game for Kansas State who is the more desparate team having lost 8 straight Big 12 games, and Chris Kleinman’s seat has gotten hot.  However, they just lost to the 3 best teams in the conference in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  They have actually owned Texas Tech winning 9 of the last 10 match ups, and I expect Texas Tech who is just one win shy of a bowl game already to be a little more content.

This is also the type of game Texas Tech loses.  They lose against opponents that can run the ball and take them out of their flow on offense.  The run defense has allowed 2.61 ypc in wins, and 7.37 in losses to TCU and Texas.  Kansas State is every bit in that mix of quality rushing offenses led by Deuce Vaughn who had 113 yards on only 16 carries in this match up last year.  Kansas State ranks 40th in ypc, and 63rd in epa rush offense, but they have done it against a tough schedule.  An average opponent ypc defense ranking 47th.  Their last 3 losses have come against Oklahoma State, 18th in ypc defense, Oklahoma 6th in epa run defense, and Iowa State 20th in epa run defense.  Texas Tech ranks 101st in ypc defense, and 109th in epa run defense and it doesn’t hurt that some of Kansas State’s rankings came when they were without Skylar Thompson for two games.  Even Kansas was able to run the ball against Tech 145 yards on 33 carries.

Texas Tech has a veteran QB in Columbi, but there is a reason he lost the starting job to transfer Tyler Shough.  Columbi needs the big play to put up points, and Kansas State’s defense, which has not been good against the pass at least ranks 37th in 20+ yard passing plays allowed.  I think Columbi gets a bit impatient and forces some passes here.  Kansas State also has beaten two top 50 passing offenses and held them to season low in points in Stanford and Nevada and they have only allowed 7 passing TD’s in 6 games.  Tech has shown some balance in the running game and that’s probably why they are favorites here, but it’s flawed.  4 out of the top 5 are outside the top 80 in epa run defense.  Kansas State ranks 52nd in epa run defense, and 28th in ypc.  Houston was the only other top 50 run defense, but their average opponent epa run offense faced was 102.2, so they’re flawed.  This is the best defense that Tech has played all year.

There is another advantage here for Kansas State and that is special teams where they rank 12th in the country compared to Texas Tech’s 100th ranking.

UCF +115 5.5% NCAAF POD

Let’s talk about the short rest for UCF? I’m not concerned, because they get so much energy from their home crowd, known as the “Bounce House.”  Memphis does have an extra couple days to prepare for this game, but I think traveling down to UCF where it’s 80 degrees and over 60% humidity is going to be a challenge.  Memphis has really struggled on the road in front of crowds of 19,500, 28,500, and 17,500 this season, and they’ll see 42,000 in a loud stadium on Friday night at the Bounce House.  Memphis QB Seth Henigan is also a true freshman, and while he’s been lights out this is just a different kind of challenge in my opinion.  Henigan also hurt his arm in the last game and he’s listed as probable, but you have to at least think it impacts him some.  Memphis also ranks 90th in percentage of offensive possessions ending in  TO, while UCF’s defense ranks 33rd in forcing those turnovers, which is a HUGE edge in this game.  UCF also much better at stopping the run at home allowing 2.34 ypc compared to the 5.65 on the road, and Memphis is averaging 2.5 ypc less in their losses. 

UCF’s offense without Gabriel really needs to establish the run.  They rank 22nd in ypc, and 4th in epa run offense and they get to go up against a Memphis defense that ranks 92nd in epa run defense, and 94th in epa pass defense.  I just don’t understand how Memphis is favored here.  Isiah Bowser came back last game for UCF and will go here tonight.  Memphis has not faced a top 50 rushing offense.  Their average opponent rushing ypc rank is 92.16.  The best rushing offense they faced was Texas San Antonio and they gave up 205 yards and 3 TD’s.  They also gave up 235 yards to Tulsa on the road who ranks 111th in EPA run offense.  I think UCF can establish the run in this game.  It’s worth noting that Gus Malzahn is 30-3 since 2016 when his team runs for 200+ yards.  Mikey Keane is starting to improve and while he has 4 INT’s on the year he just had to face Cinci’s defense, and here he gets to go back home facing a Memphis defense ranking 98th in QB rating, 94th in epa pass defense, and 129th in TO percentage forced per possession, and he’ll have Bowser and the rushing attack backing him up.  Central Florida wins outright!

Raiders +4 4.4% NFL POD 

Stanford -1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Washington State is very happy with themselves after winning back to back games as a dog, but Oregon State was fat and happy after beating USC and Washington, and traveled all the way up to Washington State to lose 31-24, and that was a different type of match up for Washington State.  Stanford here is off a loss, and has an extra day to prepare and they really need this game for bowl eligibility.  They have a QB in Tanner McKee who is going to give Washington State’s defense some issues.  Washington ST ranks 113th in sack %, and that will allow McKee time to find the receivers.

For Stanford is simple they are 3-0 when they run for more than 100 yards, and 0-3 when they run for 70 or less.  The teams they are 0-3 against and ran for less than 70 yards were UCLA, Kansas State, and Arizona State who rank 19th, 10th, and 7th vs. the run.  Washington State ranks 103rd in rushing ypc defense, and 112th in epa run defense.  Stanford’s run defense, which has struggled has seen them facing 5 top 50 rushing teams.  They lost 3 of those games, and 3 of them have come against athletic QB’s who are a threat to run the ball, and ran for 5 rushing TD’s.  Washington State ranks 96th in ypc and 97th epa run offense, and their QB is not a threat to run.

Stanford also has a special teams advantage here ranking 66th to Washington State’s 114th ranking, and Washington State has been very turnover prone with 12 lost turnovers.   Stanford also has faced the tougher schedule having faced Kansas State in non-conference play compared to Washington ST who faced Utah St.  Stanford also faced arguably the top 3 teams in the PAC 12 – UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona State, while Washington St faced Cal, Oregon St, and Utah, and they have the common opponent of USC, who Stanford beat, and Washington State got crushed by.  Again Washington St has proven they can hang in games when their opponent’s strength is running the ball, but if their opponent has a capable QB they have not.  Stanford’s Tanner McKee has been excellent and really a difference maker for Stanford, and I expect he will have a good game with some balance from the running game.  Stanford did beat Oregon, and I think many are already writing that off.

49ERS +6 BUY 1/2 5.5% NFL POD

South Carolina +10.5 MAX NCAAF POD

Get on the Tennessee hype train after they beat Missouri 62-24 last week, right?  80%+ of the tickets and the money is on Tennessee, but I think this line is inflated here.  South Carolina has been good to me this year, and I played them twice as a favorite going 2-0 ATS, and Shane Beamer has his team playing extremely hard right now and 8 out of the last 10 meetings between these two have been decided by single digits and there is no doubt that South Carolina has faced a far tougher schedule, which is giving us a bit more value on the spread.

Despite Tennessee wanting to run the ball more, they will face a very good South  Carolina defense ranking 18th in QB rating, and 4th in epa pass defense.  Their run defense on paper doesn’t look great, but their epa run defense ranks 43rd, which compare that with Missouri ranking 124th.  South Carolina does not give up big plays as they rank 3rd in the nation in 20+ yard plays so it’s going to take Tennessee a lot of plays to score TD’s, and I trust South Carolina to make some stops here.

South Carolina’s offense has been a struggle, and mainly because they haven’t gotten the running game going.  It’s understandable when you face three top 10 run defenses. Here they face Tennessee which ranks 33rd, but a closer look and you see that Tennessee really has not faced a good running offense outside of Florida who ran all over Tennessee.  Bowling Green ranks 130th, Missouri, and Pitt prefer to pass and are not running teams.  Missouri and Pitt also don’t slow the game down like South Carolina wants to do here, which is also going to make it very difficult for Tennessee to cover double digits in this game.  South Carolina is 125th in pace on offense.  South Carolina has also struggled in the red zone, but here they face a Tennessee defense that has allowed 71% red zone trips to end in a TD.  Last week was nice for Tennessee, but I think this team is really reading the press clippings.  Missouri’s head coach fired their DL line coach this week and called out his team for lack of effort.  The Tennessee offense going crazy had more to do with Missouri’s missed assignments, and just giving up, while I feel that won’t happen with South Carolina.  South Carolina had a hard-fought win last week and should have a chip on their shoulder and play with max effort.  I expect this to be a 4-quarter battle.

I also don’t think we should sleep on Luke Doty at QB, who is still not 100%, but starting to click with WR Josh Vann who leads the SEC in yards per catch at 21.

Shane Beamer and his staff are very familiar with the travel to Knoxville, Tennessee as he was a GA here, and while it’s not a huge note, it does make a difference.

Steelers +6 5.5% MAX POD

Kentucky +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

This will be a sell out crowd Saturday night at Kroger Field against a top 10 Florida team.  Mark Stoops has gone head to head with Mullen 7 times and is 4-2-1 ATS with an average margin of cover of 10.37pts.  This Kentucky brand has really been built up the last few years, and I think this may be their most balanced team yet.

From a statistical perspective Kentucky is really good at defending the run, which is what Florida is really going to be focused on here.  Florida ranks #1 in the nation in running the ball, and they do it with a physical ground attack led by QB Emory Jones, but I still think it’s very one dimensional, and the average opponent run defense they have faced ranks 91st in ypc defense.  If Kentucky’s excellent group of LB’s can contain Emory or set up some third downs I think they can force some turnovers as this is Emory’s first real road game.  They played at South Florida, but that was in their home state and there were more Florida fans there.

Kentucky offensively ranks 13th in ypc, and 26th in QB rating so they are a balanced offense.  Will Levis has had issues turning the ball over the last two games, but overall he’s added another dimension to the Kentucky offense, and he has the best WR in this game in Won’Dale Robinson.  Florida ranks 42nd in ypp defense, but on average they have faced 62nd ranked ypp offense.  This is a much bigger game for Kentucky than it is for Florida who has dominated the series, and has not lost here since 1986.  However, Kentucky won at Florida just 2 years ago, and Florida’s last 3 visits to Kentucky have been wins of 8, 1, and 5 points. 

Washington +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

New Mexico -1 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think the wrong team is favored here and New Mexico may go off as a favorite.  They are 0-3 ATS, and that automatically gives us value, but they are a team that just got shutout by Texas A&M and now face a UTEP team off a bye.  Both teams played New Mexico State, and while on paper it looks like UTEP is the better team, New Mexico played a more complete game. 

New Mexico will have the best player on the field in Terry Wilson at QB, the transfer from Kentucky, and he should be much more comfortable than he was a week ago at A&M.  Wilson has been solid this year 5td / 1 int, and goes up against a pass defense that has just 8 INT’s in the last 3 seasons.  In fact UTEP has been negative TO margin 6 straight seasons and are already -5 this year, while New Mexico is +4. 

UTEP also has a run heavy rushing offense, while New Mexico is only allowing 85 yards rushing per game, and really played well against A&M’s offense holding them in the red zone to FG’s in 2 of their 4 trips.  I think Terry Wilson gets comfortable and dominates this game.

Vikings +3.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Oklahoma St +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

We have a 0-2 ATS team facing a phony 2-0 ATS Boise State team.  I have not been impressed with Boise State thus far who really should not have covered either game.  Against UCF they were outgained by 290 yards and lost by 5 points and covered the spread thanks to a 14 point swing as they had a 100 yard pick six.  Against UTEP they enjoyed a +5 TO margin, and scored 31 points in a 3 minute span of the game.

Oklahoma State is getting no love here, and it’s exactly the situation I want to back Mike Gundy in.  Over the last 10 years he is 10-6 ATS as a road dog and 27-11 ATS in non-conference games.  This is also a better matchup for the weather as it looks like 15mph winds with 40mph gusts, and Oklahoma State has the better rushing attack and run defense, and feature a mobile QB in Spencer Sanders.  I think Boise State’s defense which ranked 25th last year in YPP, and 10th in sack % could cause some issues as they like to run confusing style defense with a lot of movement and could force a turnover here to allow them to pull the upset, but I expect a tight game and the +4 is well worth it.

Arizona +3 5.5% NFL POD

Arkansas +7 4.4%

TEXAS IS BACK!  We have heard this before, and this team is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win, while Arkansas 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.  Arkansas will be hosting arguably their biggest home game in quite in a while as they host their old SWC rival.  This is a huge game for Arkansas, and as good as Texas looked in week 1, Hudson Card has to prove it on the road against a senior laden defense that was a top 50 pass defense last year and brings back 10 starters.

Texas is getting the majority of the money and tickets, and I think it’s because people think Arkansas win was misleading against Rice as they trailed 17-7 in the third quarter before rattling off 31 unanswered points.  A lot of their struggles were self inflicted as their first 18 drives averaged the 17 yard line.  They also had a punt blocked, bad snap on third down, and penalty issues that led to the poor field position.  They lost one of their defensive leaders due to targeting in Grant Morgan, but he’ll be back to start this game.  KJ Jefferson also seemed to have first game jitters that after he connected with Tyson Morris went away.  It seemed mental to me as Arkansas cruised after that.  PFF ranked KJ’s performance as the #1 QB rushing performance of week 1.  Texas stopped a relatively mobile Levi Lewis in game 1, but that’s not a huge part of Lewis game in 2018 he averaged just 1.6 yards per carry, 2019 2.83, 2020 he averaged 6.09ypc, but 50% of his yards came in 2 games so just because Texas stopped Lewis does not mean they’ll stop Jefferson who is a lot bigger than Lewis, and has a future 1st or 2nd round pick at WR in Treylon Burks.

Texas offense is not going to look as great here on the road.  Arkansas home/away splits are outstanding where they play significantly better at home as they allowed 6 passing TD and 9INT at home compared to 12/4 ratio on the road, and they allowed 1.55ypc less at home than on the road and held a Georgia running game to 2.88 to open last season.  They were without their 320lb starting DT Ridgeway last week, and get him back here, which should help free up the LB.  Speaking of health, Texas loses their starting RG who is questionable for this game.

Lastly, I really like the coaching staff at Arkansas, while Sark is great and has proven he can rebuild it’s just their second game.  OC Kendall Briles in his second year, and DC Barry Odom has led some very good SEC Defenses in the past.  This line also opened up at 4.5 and moved to 7, with resistance at some of the sharper books likes like Bookmaker.

Clemson -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

Georgia is getting a lot of hype for all the players they brought in, but there are some question marks I would still need answered to give them this type of respect.  The big one is about their QB and play calling from Todd Monken.  Is Kirby Smart really going to let him play call and let this offense go?  I think we will see more aggressive play, but is JT Daniels good enough and does he have the help around him for this game?  JT Daniels hype has always been a big thing he was the #3 QB coming out of high school behind Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Field.  He put together a great final 4 games for Georgia with 10 TD and 2 INT.  Great, but who did he actually do it against?  In his two road games he played South Carolina and Missouri with roughly 10,000 fans, and both defenses were not good at all against the pass.  In fact the 4 teams he faced ranked 95th, 106th, 58th, and 25th.  The top two pass defenses were not as good as the numbers suggest considering they faced an average opponent QB rating of 86th and 75th.   In the bowl game against Cincinnati we saw JT Daniels struggle under pressure.

Georgia has an inexperienced offensive line that ranked 73rd in passing down sack rate allowed and will go up against a Clemson DL that is #1 in havoc generated form the front 7.  Brent Venables is still here as the DC and not going anywhere so there is a lot of stability.  JT Daniels has really struggled in his career under pressure.  According to PFF, in 91 passes under pressure he has had 15 turnover worthy plays and just 26 completions.  Clemson’s defense returns 10 starters and ranked 8th in ypp allowed last year.  This is easily the best defense JT Daniels has ever faced in his life.

Clemson breaks in a young QB in DJ Uiagalelai, but he got two starts last year.  In those two starts he faced two solid pass defenses in Boston College at home, and Notre Dame on the road.  Clemson did not lose the game against Notre Dame because of DJ.  In those two games he had 69% completion percentage, 4 TD to 0INT, and 9.18 yards per play.  Clemson OL is a bit under sized, but I think they’ll use tempo here to their advantage against a Georgia defense that wants to stay fresh.  Georgia’s secondary was 51st in QB rating allowed last year and that came against an average 79th ranking QB rating opponent.  Alabama and Florida were the only top 2 passing offenses and they lost both giving up 41 and 44 points.  Georgia lost their top 4 CB’s in terms of snap count, which could be a good thing, but they brough in a pre-season All-American  Tykee Smith from West Virginia, but he’s out for this game, and they get Clemson CB Derion Kendrick to transfer in, but Kendrick in the big games in 2019 vs. LSU, and 2020 vs Ohio State was targeted by Fields and Burrow and he gave up 13 receptions 274 yards, and 5TD’s!!

I feel Clemson is still ahead of Georgia, and the price of -3 is nice.  Clemson almost has to feel like the underdog here.  This game is a neutral field

Saints -3 4.4% 

Bills -2.5 5.5% NFL POD 

ohio st +8.5 5.5%

COLTS +7 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5% 

rams +121 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Ohio State +7.5 5.5% POD

Georgia -7 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Oklahoma -135 5.5% POD

Rams +1.5 5.5% NFL POD

EAGLES +7 5.5% nfl pod 

Ball State +13. 5 4.5% 

Dolphins +7.5 5.5% NFL POD

Browns +5 5.5% POD

Tamps +3.5 5% 

RAMS -130 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Georgia -3 5.5% po d

Vikings +7 5.5% 

Wyoming -1 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Texans 5.5% POD

Miss State +5.5 5.5% POD

Colts +1 4.4% POD

Colts -145 5.5% NFL POD

Bills -117 5.5% POD

Colts -3 5.5% NFL PO D

Falcons +1.5 4.4% NFL POD

Under 47 5.5% 

Clemson +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Boston College +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

Just 25% of the money coming in on BC, because they are without their head coach, and AJ Dillon also not playing.  Dillon's backup David BAiley, is a brusing RB at 240lbs, that the team is excited for.  Bailey actually had more yards per carry than Dillon and still rushed for 816 yards.  He will be key in this game where the weather is going to play a factor.  Expect some wind and rain here, and with both teams running the ball over 60%, handicapping the running game is very critical.  Jeff Hafley, the new BC coach will also be in attendance, which is always a good thing for the players who play in a game like this.  They typically want to impress their new HC.

Boston College has been able to run the ball against everyone but Clemson and Notre Dame, who have superior talent to Cinci.  They faced six top 50 rush defenses and they averaged 226 yards per carry.  While Cincinnati ranks 27th in ypc, they rank 47th in rushing success defense, and a lot of their success was at home where they allowed 2.66 ypc, 4.52 ypc on the road.  They faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses like Boston College and allowed 195.8 yards per game and 4.74 ypc which is about 90th in the country.  They went 2-3 in those games, and in their two wins they actually were fortunate as they forced 9 TO's.  BC doesn't turn the ball over with just 11 on the year. I think this will be a close game, because BC will have success running the ball.  Cinci is also a very good rushing offense with a mobile QB, and BC's defensive weakness is in the secondary, which also makes this a good matchup for BC.  They rank 33rd in rushing success, defense.  They don't rank well from  YPC perspective, but that's because they are prone to giving up explosive runs, which Cinci really is not built on. 

This will be a close game, I don't see BC losing by more than a TD unless they turn it over and with 11 on the year, while Cinci has turned it over 20 times I don't expect they will lose the TO margin.  They also are top 10 in fewest penalty yards per game while Cinci ranks 129th.  I wouldn't be shocked to see BC pull the upset in front of their new HC. 

Wisconsin -140 5.5% MAX POD

Kansas State +110 5.5% NCAAF POD

Giants +3.5 5.5% POD

Iowa State +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Miami -6 4.4% POD

BYU -125 4.5% NCAAF POD

Jets +3.5 5.5% NFL POD 

Cardinals +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Saints -2 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

Steelers +3

Wisconsin -150 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather is lesst han ideal with rain/snow with 30mph gusts of winds, expect a conservative approach from both coaches although Minnesota does like to come out agressive in these games, and then try to hold on.  I think Wisconsin's defense is the best defense Minnesota has seen all year, and the weather really just doesn't favor them in this spot.  Minnesota will have to stop Jonathan Taylor, and on paper it looks like they can do it, but they literally have faced one team in the top 50 in rushing offense all season, and they gave up 35 points to Fresno State.  They then gave up 32 at home to Georgia Southern team that ranks 51st.  Nebraska was able to run on Minnesota and didn't have Adrien Martinez, and Penn State was able to rush for 178 on just 29 carries.  Wisconsin comes into this game with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 200+ yards in each of his last 3 games, and should have another big game here.

Minnesota did beat Wisconsin last year, but that was a down Wisconsin team, and I think Wisconsin will only use that to their advantage.  Minnesota also needed a +4 TO margin game in order to get that win.  I think Wisconsin takes care of the ball here on the road, and Wisconsin should be able to dominate in the trenches and on third down, which should help them wear out this Minnesota defense.  Wisconsin is +25% on third downs compared to Minnesota who is just +11% against worse opponents.  If you don't have a running QB which Minnesota does not you can't run on Wisconsin.  It also doesn't help that Minnesota is 123rd in power success rate on defense and 103rd in stuff rate going up against a big defensive line in Wisconsin.  Minnesota has been a nice story, but I think the weather situation in this game is just too much to overcome.

Ole Miss +120 5.5% NCAAF POD

I always enjoy the college game more on Thanksgiving night, and we have gotten this match-up the last few years.  This is a huge game for the state of Mississippi, and I think we have a coaching advantage when you look at Ole Miss and what they have on their staff and the fact that they are sticking around after this season, and they also have 12 days to prepare compared with Miss State who has just 5.  What they have been able to do down the stretch of the season is improve their team.  On the other side we see Joe Morehead possibly out of a job if he doesn't win this game to get to a bowl, and that creates a lot more pressure for Miss State in my opinion.  Matt Luke already knows he's going to be back, but I think that gives him momentum in this game for recruiting, and the players are highly motivated to knock their rival out of a bowl game after losing this game last year where Ole Miss had a chance to go bowling with a win, and lost.  This is just a different Ole Miss team that has found their identity with John Rhys Plumlee.

Ole Miss running game is legit behind John Rhys Plumlee they are top 10 in rushing, and Miss State's defense has allowed 33.5 points per game against a top 50 rushing offense. Bob Shoops defense loves to blitz and it has left them exposed in the running game especially against mobile QBs.  Bo Nix got 56 yards on just 7 carries, Kellen Mond got 76 yards on 9 carries, and they have given up 6 rushing TD's to opping QB's.  That's a huge problem with Plumlee at Qb, and now you could say that Ole Miss offense is one dimensional, but Ole Miss at least does not turn the ball over, and they make up for that by having a top 50 run defense to go up against Miss State's rushign attack, while Miss State ranks 95th vs. the run.  Miss State also allowed 35.5 points on average to non top 75 passing teams which Ole Miss is.

Miss State's offense obviously runs the ball here 60% of the time, but they are going up against a top 50 run defense.  Ole Miss defense has given up 32ppg to top 50 rushing offenses, which is very similar to what Miss State gives up, but LSU and Alabama are dramatically throwing those numbers off.  Ole Miss actually gave both opponents a game, and forced both opponents to play their starters the entire game.  With all of that said Ole Miss still has better rushing offense and defensive nubmers overall and against common opponents, and in conference play they are +1.63 yards per carry compared to Miss State who is +0.12ypc.  Miss State really got a lot of those numbers by bullying teams like Arkansas, and Kentucky earlier in the season.  Miss State's passing attack is nothing to get exciteda bout and their receiving corp do not do the QB's any favors with tons of drops on the season. Ole Miss vs. teams not in the top 75 in QB rating have allowed just 18 points per game on average in those games.  They also have to defend these QB's from running, and it's improtant to know that Ole Miss has given up just 1 rushing TD all year and that was to a healthy Tua.

I do like to look at common opponents this far into the season, and Ole Miss and Miss State are just a notch below A&M and Auburn in their respected division in the SEC.  That's who they would have to jump over, and when we look at these two teams they both played them, and Ole Miss lost by 7 and 6 points, while Miss State lost by 23 and 19.  That again goes into coaching and why I think Ole Miss has the better staff.

We need to talk red zone in a game like this, and Miss State's offense although slightly better in TD% in conference play 65% to 62.5% for Ole Miss that's largely in part to having two power running QB's,  they give up 67% TD percentage while Ole Miss comes in at 44%.  Ole Miss again surprisingly has the better defense especially against the run, which is a huge key in this game.  Miss State vs. top 50 run defense average just 22.2 points per game.  They topped 30 points 2x, one game against Southern Miss, and the other against Texas A&M in garbage time as they trailed 35-10 before losing 49-30.  

Lastly and most importantly is turnover margin.  Again Ole Miss comes out in a better situation.  Ole Miss just 12 TO's lost on the season, 4 in 4 road games and 8 in 7 conference games where they were +1 TO Margin.  Miss State has lost 20 on the season, which includes 15 in 7 conference games, where they are -7 TO margin.  There were 7 games where they had 2 or more TO's in a game.

Eagles -115 5.5% NFL POD

Colts -135 5.5% NFL POD

Baylor +10.5 4.4% ncaaf pod

Oklahoma has a fantastic offense once again and you have to give Lincoln Riley a lot of credit.  Actually everyone already does that for us. He did have to replace another QB, but this time 4 of 5 offensive linemen, and that really hasn’t shown up yet this year, because Oklahoma has not faced a top defense.  They faced one team in the top 50 in rushing defense, which was West Virginia who ranks 47th, and they rank 116th vs. the pass. They faced one team in the top 50 in passing defense, Kansas State, and they lost. I know they put up 40+ points, but Kansas State ranks 111th vs. the run.  Baylor’s defense ranks 17th vs. the run, and 11th vs. the pass, and they rank 19th at sack %, and they do that without a lot of blitzing.  

Oklahoma’s offense is really all about defending two guys.  Jalen Hurts, make him a passer. He nearly threw 3 interceptions in the first quarter against Iowa State who runs a ton of cover 3.  Well, Baylor will run the same thing, but they can get pressure on Hurts with their DL led by James Lynch. I give all the credit in the world to Jalen Hurts who stuck around at Alabama and transferred at the end of the season, but he just doesn’t make good decisions.  We have seen this story before it is what got him benched at Alabama, and it appears not much has changed, and I think it’s because he has not played in a lot of challenging games over his career. CeeDee Lamb is the other guy on this Oklahoma offense you have to worry about, and I believe Baylor has a CB that can slow him down in Jameson Houston who has held two elite WR in check already this season.  Jalen Reagor and Tylan Wallace combined for just 7 catches and 77 yards. Lamb is a different animal, but Baylor is a really good tackling team and they rank 4th in the country in explosive pass defense, which should help them tremendously in bottling up this Oklahoma offense. I think it’s okay to let them get their yards, and then create mistakes when Oklahoma is in the red zone it’s something Baylor has done really well.  We saw Jalen do this in the Texas game, and Texas by no means has a great defense this year. Oklahoma’s offense is -21% TD percentage in the red zone on the road, and their defense is -15% on the road vs. their home splits.

Oklahoma’s defense is not any better than a year ago it seems to me.  The one worry I have in this game is Baylor’s offensive line that has not been good.  They really have to tire out a defensive line before Brewer has any serious time to throw the ball.  I think they can have success doing that here, but expect to see a conservative approach from Baylor’s offense early.  They do feature the talent to challenge this defense ranking top 20 in rushing play explosiveness. We saw what Iowa State did in the running game to open the second half and BAylor’s QB is absolutely another threat in the running game that Oklahoma has to worry about.  Baylor also has Mimms at WR who has had monster games against Oklahoma over his career, 22 receptions for 330 yards. Mimms won them the game at TCU last week.  

Baylor is a team that fights until the end and that’s the type of team I want my money on.  Matt Rhule has this team fighting, and last week it showed where they could have lost the game against TCU so many times.  They are back home and a better team here. They got up 21-0 on Iowa State earlier this year, and nobody but Oklahoma has done that to Iowa State.  Baylor believes, because they did it before. In 2017 they lost 48-41 in Rhule’s first year. They got down 21-0, and 28-7 and came back and took the lead then Oklahoma got up 17, and Baylor came back to make a game of it again.  This team fights, they tackle well and have a lot of the ingredients to pull an upset. I think this will be a tight game throughout, and if Baylor can just get it to the 4th quarter they’ll have a shot for the upset.

Titans +6 5.5% NFL POD

Ravens +3 +100 5.5% NFL POD

Washington +3.5 @-115 5.5% NCAAF POD

Before we even break this game down it is important to know that Washington has consistently out recruited Utah.  Washington has more talent ranking 15th, 21, and 20th in recruiting the last 3 years, while Utah ranked 37th, 50th, and 51st.  Utah plays above their talent rating because of a good home field advantage, and top 10 coaching. Those advantages don’t exist in this game. 

Washington was one of only a few teams in the country that had to open the season with 8 straight games, and now they are off a bye where Chris Peterson is 18-0 in his career during the regular season, 11-7 ATS.  They had a 2 TD lead entering the 4th quarter against Oregon at home. Oregon very similar team to Utah as far as their statistical profile. Both teams rank in the TOP 25 in YPP offense, and defense, with similar strength of schedules.  Washington should have won and covered that game, but I think the 8 straight games wore them out by the 4th quarter. All in all they still held Oregon to 39% rushing success rate, which is above average, and Oregon a better running team than Utah ranking 33rd in YPC against a tougher opponent run defense than Utah, but they are very similar.  I think the extra rest will help Washington here late in the game. It also helps that Utah’s QB Tyler Huntley is not 100%. It’s the reason they took him out of the game in the second half and changed the offensive strategy last week. Washington’s defense also struggled late against the rushing offense of Oregon, but Oregon has an elite offensive line, they rank top in havoc rate allowed, and rank top 50 in power success rate, which showed late in the game.  Utah ranks 100th in power success rate.

Utah’s defense can not be ignored, but they have yet to face a team in the top 50 in both rushing ypc, and QB rating.  They haven’t faced an offensive line this good either. Washington ranks 17th in havoc rate allowed and 34th ins ack % allowed.  Utah’s strength is in their defensive line. They love to create havoc, but they have not been sacking the QB ranking 77th that’s worse than Oregon’s rankings.  Give Jacob Eason time, and he’s going to find his receivers. I also think he’s going to get his Sr. WR Aaron Fuller back here, although he’s listed as questionable still he has practiced this week.  Washington also has the balance with their running game, which features Salvon Ahmed, averaging over 6 yards per carry. The last two times Utah visited Washington they were not able to stop the run allowing 177 yards and 199 yards, and that’s without the threat of the pass that Jacob Eason brings.

Special Teams is another category that can not be ignored.  Typically Utah is among the best in the nation, but that’s just not the case this year. They rank 96th in special teams this year, while Washington ranks 2nd.  A lot of hidden yardage here, and the kicking game for Washington has been perfect while Utah kickers are just 7-11 and the punting has averaged less than 40 yards per punt.  Washington also has the edge i n TO margin ranking 19th, compared to Utah’s 25th ranking, but last year in their two matchups they turned the ball over 6 times. Washington has had the advantage in TO margin in the majority of their meetings, and I feel like they will have it again in this one. 

Chiefs +5.5 5.5% POD

Michigan State +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD +190 1% Bonus

This is a dreadful spot for Penn State off two physical games against Iowa and Michigan where their defense saw 153 plays, now they go on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks to face a Michigan State team that has their number and is off a bye.  They bye could have come at a better time for Michigan State in my opinion after they were in the season’s worst scheduling spot. Name a team that had a tougher back to back road stretch than Michigan State having to face Ohio State, and Wisconsin on the road.  They lost both SU & ATS, and there is no harm in that.  

Penn State should have lost at IOwa they were outgained on the day, Michigan should have taken them to over time, and Michigan out gained them 417 to 283.  Yet Penn State won both. I think their luck runs out here, and if you compare Michigan State with Iowa. On paper you’d think they are the same team, but Michigan State actually has the better defense against the tougher schedule.  Michigan State ranks 18th in YPP allowed, and Iowa ranks 19th, but Iowa has not faced offenses with an average opponent YPP ranking 75th, compared to Michigan State’s 57.42. The run defenses which are the key to stopping Penn State right now with an inexperienced QB in Clifford still making his way.  Iowa ranked 22nd, and they gave up 170 to Penn State at home, and many on third and short as Penn State went 10-19 on third down. Iowa ranked 127th in power success rate defense. Michigan State is flat out better at stopping the run ranking 25th, but have faced two of the best running teams in Wisconsin and Ohio State already.  Michigan State ranks 22nd in power success rate defensive line, and they are only allowing 38% conversions on third down which is great when you consider their opponents average 44.23%. Michigan State actually matches up better than Iowa, because they should stop Penn State on third down and if they are in passing situations Michigan State has a pass rush, ranking 24th in sack % compared to Iowa who only ranked 94th.  Penn State does have issues protecting the QB ranking 78th in sack % allowed, and that’s why they have chosen to lean on the running game. If it’s third and short or third and long Michigan State’s defense has the edge.  

How about Michigan State’s offense, well they have faced some of the top defenses in the nation an average 37th ranked ypp defense, and have gone 0-3 against top 40 units.  However, Penn State’s defense can be beat. We saw Michigan move the ball on them, and we saw Iowa move the ball on them, both have veteran QB’s just like Michigan State in Brian Lewerke.  Lewerke has had great success against Penn State the last two years he threw for 659 yards 4 TD’s and 2 INT’s. He’s having a better year this year and it’s not amazing, but he’s taking care of the ball 11 TD’s to just 3 INT’s, which was another reason Iowa lost that game. 

Michigan State has the nation’s best punter in Jake Hartbarger who is averaging over 46 yards per punt.  This will be a huge advantage making a Penn State offense that is nothing special march extra yardage to score points.  I think Michigan State will have a good game plan coming off the bye, and their offense will look a bit better than it did in their last two games.  

Colts -1 5.5% NFL POD

Cardinals +3 -120 5.5% 

Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Stock for Penn State probably could not be higher right now after the last two weeks, and Iowa after their performance against Michigan could not be lower, but I watched that game, and they just had a bad game.  Stanley threw 3 interceptions, and the offensive line played poorly, but they still had chances to win at the end of the game. Iowa was the better team than Michigan. Stanley is a veteran QB, that has only thrown 2 or more INT’s twice in a game and I don’t see him making those mistakes back at home where he has a 34 TD to 8 INT’s over his career.  Penn State has shown some red flags this season which are buried. Against Buffalo, a physical team in the trenches, much like Iowa they were -106 yards rushing and were trailing at the half at home and being outgained. Against Pitt at home they were -150 yards passing. I could totally see Nathan Stanley having a great game here on Saturday night. 

Penn State really hasn’t proven anything?  Yeah they rank #3 in total defense and that’s what is carrying them right now as they lack a dominant RB, and they have an inexperienced QB.  However, Penn STate has faced an average ypp offense ranking 93.5, and opponent average ypc offense ranking 82.75, and an opponent average QB rating ranking 93.25.  Iowa is easily the most balanced attack that Penn State’s defense has seen. Penn State has faced Iowa State, and Michigan on the road so far. I just don’t know if I can trust Penn State with an inexperienced QB on the road against an Iowa defense that doesn’t give up explosive plays.  They rank 2nd in the nation in 20+ yard plays allowed, and that’s what Penn State relies on in their offense right now. I just expect this to be a fight through 4 quarters with Iowa leading most of the way. Since 2000, Iowa is 14-6-2 ATS as a home dog, and they are 25-15-2 ATS following a SU loss in the last 10 years.  Iowa actually outgained Penn State on the road last year in their 6 point loss. 

Steelers +3.5 5.5% POD

Pitt +5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Duke off a huge win over Virginia Tech as a dog on national TV last Friday, and Pitt just got by Delaware 17-14, but that was expected after beating UCF the week before, benching their starting QB, and half of their starters to get healthy for this game.  Pitt has faced a tougher schedule by far with 3 quality opponents compared to Duke’s 1 quality opponent. I think these offenses are about even, but Pitt is stronger defensively ranking 32nd in YPP allowed against an average offense ranking 45th, compared to Duke’s 57th ranking, and 69th opponent average offense.  Duke’s defense weakness is Pitt’s offensive strength, and Duke’s offensive strength is Pitt’s defensive strength.

Pitt has owned the series and Narduzzi has owned Cutcliffe.  Pitt is a different style team this year, and it actually lines up better in the matchups for them.  Duke’s weakness and inexperience is in the secondary. They really have not been tested, but Pitt features a new offense led by OC Mark Whipple, and the top passing duo in FBS with Maruice French and Taysir Mack.  I honestly think Pitt can be more balanced here than Duke can. Quentin Harris has been great, but he can’t stretch the field, and against top defenses like Pitt who can stop the run, and stop the pass Duke tends to struggle to put up points.  Harris is Duke’s offense he leads the team in rushing yards, and attempts, and they go up against the 25th ranked rushing defense, and a defense that is second in the country with 24 sacks, and has a 23.5% havoc rate. Duke also starts two red shirt freshman at the tackle position, and they’ve played well so far protecting the QB, but on average they have faced #81.6 sack % defense, and Pitt ranks 4th. 

LIONS +7.5 5.5% NFL POD

Saints +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Buffalo +14.5 4.4% POD

There is really good value here on Buffalo who lost last week as a road favorite (buy low), and fading Temple who won at home as a home dog (sell high).  At this point we don't know much about Temple, and that game against Maryland (over rated) could have went either way, but they stopped Maryland twice at the goal line, and their QB Anthony Russo threw another pick, but should have thrown two.  This is a sandwhich game for Temple too as they have Georgia Tech on deck.  Georgia Tech's Head Coach was the Temple coach last year.  So while Temple players remember losing to Buffalo last year some might have their eye on Georgia Tech the following week. 

Rod Carey is a fabulous coach, and comes over from Northern Illinois, who beat Buffalo and HC Lance Leipold in the MAC Championship game a year ago by 1 point, and in 2018 they beat Buffalo 14-13.  Buffalo blew a 29-10 lead in the MAC Championship.  

Buffalo is strong in the trenches, and Carey has stated it's the best OL and DL they have faced.  There are questions at QB for Buffalo who is starting a freshman, but I think he plays better here at home, and I think the running game continues to have success.  The OL returns 4 of 5 guys, and this is a group that ran the ball for 183 yards at Penn State, and led at the half before Penn State dominated the second half when they started throwing the ball.  I don't know if Carey trusts Russo to take advantage of Buffalo's weakness in the secondary.  Russo is very turnover prone, and I think he might throw 2 interceptions here today setting up Buffalo to have a shot at the upset. 

Lions +2 5.5% POD

Iowa State +108 5% NCAAF POD

I was hoping to see the line that was 2.5 get to 3, but it’s now going back to where the line opened when Iowa State was a 1 point favorite.  I think there is value with Iowa State coming off a near loss to FCS Northern Iowa in week 1 in triple OT, and then getting a bye. For one most people will look to fade a team almost losing to an FCS foe, but Northern Iowa is a very good FCS team.  Iowa has had problems with them in the past, and Iowa lost to North Dakota State back in 2016, another FCS opponent so it’s not that unusual. Also, Iowa State really out played Northern IOwa as they outgained them by 200 yards. Meanwhile Iowa beat Miami Ohio, and Rutgers.  So I don’t really understand what has changed so much that Iowa State would not still be favored. 

College GameDay will be here for the first time ever and that’s a big deal for Iowa fans.  We saw it last year when GameDay made their first trip to Washington State when they hosted Oregon, and Washington State dominated especially early.  That’s not a huge reason why I’m backing Iowa State. I really like head coach Matt Campbell, and he’s 9-2 ATS as a dog here, they blew the 2017 game at home 41-44, and lost at Iowa 13-3.  6 of the last 8 meetings have been close, but Iowa State has had a tough time getting over the hump.

Iowa State’s defense is a major reason why I like them here.  They have the best linebackers in the Big 12, and an All Big 12 nose tackle which anchors the 3-3-5 defense in Ray Lima.  Lima will be going up against a red shirt freshman at Center who was recruited to play DL and is making just his third start.  It’s a lot to ask because normally you don’t have a defender lined up right in front of you when you face a 4-3. Iowa State also likes to show confusion at the line and brings different linebackers on blitzes, and I think that will have a big impact on an inexperienced Center. 

Panthers +2 4.4% NFL POD 

Texas State +7 4.4% NCAAF POD

Wyoming is just 2-4 ATS under Boh as a road favorite, and they have to do it this week after a home upset of Missouri where their fans rushed the field.  First of all that was a completely misleading final. So many things happened in that game including turnovers from Missouri that led to 10 points, but also took away 14 points form Missouri which was a 24 point swing.

Texas State stays in their home state, and have 2 extra days to prepare and rest which is a big deal in my opinion.  I really like the head coach hiring of Jake Savital, and I think their offense will look a lot better this week against Wyomin’s secondary, a unit that lost two 4 year starters who were the glue of that defense.  It certainly showed as Kelly Bryant passed for 423 yards, and Bryant is not really known for his arm. In all they lost 100 starters in the secondary, and it will be a tough match-up for Wyoming as Texas State under OC Bob Stitt, and HC Spavital have made it pretty clear they will throw the ball.

Texas State did not play well at Texas A&M, but I’m going to give them a pass considering they played a borderline top 10 team, on the road at night @ Kyle Field in front of 98,000 fans.  What I like most about Texas State is they return 10 starters from a unit that ranked 43rd in yards per play allowed facing an average opponent offense ranking 66th in ypp on offense. They have the best LB’s in the Sun Belt, and they go up against a one dimensional Wyoming unit.  I don’t think SEan Chambers can pass the ball he was 6-16, and I think it will lead to some mistakes by Wyoming.