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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers -2 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs 6:30 ET | Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV 10-Unit Bet on the 49ers minus 2 points and if the money line is less than -130 (As in -125) use the money line. 5-Unit Bet Under 47.5 points. I cannot prevent you from placing a parlay on these opportunities but would recommend not to as there are plenty of prop bets that add more than enough risk to our Super Bowl portfolio of bets. If you force me (LOL), I would prefer the teaser (Ouch, I cannot even believe I am writing that) where you tease down the 49ers and the tease up the total.  Live Betting StrategyFor Live betting consider betting 70% preflop on the 49ers as prescribed above and then look to get 15% more at +1.5 and 15% more at +4.5 points during the first half of action. Of course, you can bet say 80% preflop and then add 10% more at each of these levels and is dependent on how much you like the 49ers to win the game. As for the Over bet I like betting 2.5 units preflop. If the game starts out terribly slowly on the scoreboard and the total drops to 39.5 points, I plan to BUY BACK that 2.5 units and play the middle between 39.5 and 47.5 points. The other strategy is to bet 2.5 units UNDER preflop and then look to add 1.5 units at 50.5 points and 1 more unit at 53.5 points. Over the past five seasons, the 49ers and the Chiefs lead the NFL tied with 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed a 6 or more-point lead. The Chiefs had 3 games and the 49ers four games this season in which they and their foes enjoyed 6 or more-point leads. So, expect multiple lead changes and use the live game betting strategy detailed above if you agree with me.  A DisclaimerI am a documented 22-5 ATS in the Super Bowls and that record is not a guarantee that this 10-Unit bet will win this year. My goal is always to see you bet with discipline and the reality that in a one game situation anything can happen. No one has a crystal ball. I do have massive databases and predictive models using machine learning and gaussian probability tools that have done extremely well over the course of a season and a calendar year. My 10-Unit MAX Bets have LOST 32% of the time on a 78-38 record across all sports and more than 4+ years of betting action. Make no mistake, I like the 49ers quite a bit, but it is another individual bet and will not have any impact to my season-to-date profits or my 2024 year-end profits. A Highly Profitable NFL Betting AlgorithmThe following NFL betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 33-16 SU record and 33-14-2 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are: ·     Bet on any team lined between the 3’s. ·     That team is on a three or more-game ASTS losing streak. ·     The opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak. Note, in the playoffs going back to 2003, the Under is 12-3 for 80% winning bets in a matchup where one of the teams is on a 3-game ATS losing streak and the opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak. The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 44-14 Under record good for 76% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are: ·     Bet the under in game where the total us priced between 42.5 and 49 points. ·     One of the teams (49ers) is coming off a home game in which they won the game priced as the favorite but did not cover the spread. ·     That team is facing a foe that is coming off an upset road win. If the game occurs in the playoffs, the Under has gone a near-perfect 6-1 Under for 86% winning bets. The Predictive Model Projections The market at current pricing of 47.5 point total and the 49ers favored by 1.5 points reflects a 24.5-23 49ers win. In the NFL ranks, the 27-point scoring level is a significant pivot for many of the elite teams. For instance, over the past five seasons, the Dolphins own the best record when scoring 27 or more points producing a 24-7 SU and 26-3-2 ATS mark for 90% winning bets. Over the same period, the 49ers have gone 44-3 SU and 35-10-2 ATS and the Chiefs have gone 49-4 SU and 34-18-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points. The Chiefs ATS win percentage is second-lowest to only the Minnesota Vikings, who are 32-10 SU and 26-15-1 ASTS for 63% winning bets. The predictive models are calling for the 49ers to score 27 or more points and will gain more total yards and average at least 6.25 yards per play. In past games spanning the past five seasons, the 49ers are 20-0 SU and 17-2-1 ATS for 90% winning bets. The Chiefs are 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS when they have allowed 27 or more points, gained fewer total yards and allowed 6.25 or more yards per play. Teams that have produced a 14 or lower (better and more efficient) offensive yards per point ratio has gone 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS for 68% winning bets in the Super Bowl. The forecast is for the 49ers to produce a 13 or lower YPPT ratio. In the super bowl teams that have scored 27 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone on to a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ASTS record good for 73% winning bets. My expectations are that the 49ers wrinkle in this game and one that will not be surprising to the Chiefs defense is that they will start the game in a spread formation and not the ‘22’ formation. The ‘22’ is a formation where only one WR is set away from the line of scrimmage and with a pair of TE and RB packed in close to the ball. The reason is simply that Purdy will be able to see where the blitz pressure is coming from far easier than in a packed-in-the phone booth ‘22’ set. Eventually, I believe the Chiefs will have to commit one of their two safeties to support the run defense. When you see this happen during the game you can then expect play action and throw to a WR in man coverage and executing a vertical post or crossing route. The Pizza Money Prop Bets First and foremost, when betting the 49ers be careful not to add too many 49er player props. The mistake most people make is to add player props on the team they bet because they believe those prop bets will win too. One case in point is the 2007 Super Bowl when the Patriots came into the Super Bowl priced as 12.5 point favorites and lost to the Giants 17-14 priced as 12.5-point favorites. If you had bet the Patriot they obviously lost and if you added a plethora of plater props on aardy and company the majority of those would have lost too resulting in a significant financial loss. So, bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours. Prop Bets 1.   McCaffrey Over 100 rushing yards +128 Currently at Bet ESPN, the odds for Christian McCaffery to rush for over 100 yards is +128. Note, that when McCaffrey has gained 110 or more yards nd his team has been favored by less than 10 points has seen that team (Panthers and 49ers) go 9-1 SI and 7-3 ATS for 70%. You can also bet any amount of yards that MaCaffrey will get with 90 yards having equal vig for the Under and Over bets. 2.   Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards. This bet is almost akin to a hedge on our 49ers bet that if this bet wins it also could mean that Purdy is scrambling more than expected and that the Chiefs defense is not allowing an separation from the 49ers WRs. 3.   Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 receiving yards 4.   Travis Kelce Under 6.5 receptions (sorry Taylor LOL) 5.   Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards Rice is the x-factor in this game and I think you will see the 49ers corner Ward mirroring him all over the field. This is a matchup (game within the game) situation that could determine the winner of the Super Bowl. For instance if Rice scores 2 TDs and has over 150 receiving yards the Chiefs more than likely win this game. 6.   Elijah Mitchell Over 1.5 rushing attempts The Chiefs ranked 27th in defensive rush DVOA this season and will be without Charles Omenihu. Mitchell had at least 2 rushing attempts in the 11 games he suited up for and the 49ers will be looking to pound the ball between the tackles and force the Chiefs to bring up a safety. 7.   Kyle Juszcyk +2400 to catch the 49ers first reception This bet is based on the first play the 49ers run from scrimmage is not a which player makes the first catch of the Super Bowl. So, even if the 49ers defer the coin toss and get the second possession of the game, this bet will be active on that first 49ers offensive play. In the last two games, Juszcyk has been targeted on the second play of the 49ers first drive. So, Shanahan has a solid history of mixing up his offensive tendencies in big games. The top-4 49ers are all priced exceptionally low and offer not much value to make that first catch, but Juszcyk is a monster value. $10 here and a winner buys a lot of pizzas. 8.   Highest Scoring Quarter will be the 2nd at +170 Since the 2001 Super Bowl, the highest scoring quarter has been the fourth averaging 15.5 PPG. The second quarter has seen an average of 14.9 PPG. The third has averaged 11 PPG, and the first quarter has averaged 7 PPG. The Chiefs went scoreless in 7 fourth quarters this season, scored 3 or fewer points in the 4th in 13 games, and in four games they did not score in the second half. Just last week in their winner over the Ravens they failed to score in the second half. So, that takes out the 4th quarter as a potential bet. It has been mentioned far too often in the past two weeks or so that Shanahan is pathetic in comeback situations sporting a 1-35 SU record when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth quarter. The truth is all head coaches in the NFL that have been around for any stretch of time have posted horrid records in this trailing situation. Andy Reid struggled to close out games with a lead and earn the win while the head coach of Philadelphia. Since 2019, he has become one of the greatest closers ion the history of the game going 41-1 SU and 35-6-1 ATS for 85% winning tickets when leading by 5 or more points through three quarters of action. Most Games When Trailing By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1.    Bill Belichick 19-102 SU | 11-107-3 ATS (9.3%) 2.    Jeff Fisher 12-108 SU | 16-101-3 ATS (14%) 3.    Tom Coughlin 15-94 SU | 17-87-5 ATS (16%) 4.    Andy Reid 20-80 SU | 18-81-1 ATS (18%) 5.    John Fox 11-83 SU | 15-77-2 ATS (16%) Lowest Win Percentages When Trailing by 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1.    Gruden 0-34 SU | 2-32 ATS (6%) 2.    Spagnuolo 0-29 SU | 4-24-1 ATS (14%) 3.    Mangini 0-29 SU | 5-24 ATS (17%) 4.    Hue Jackson 0-28-1 | 5-24 ATS (17%) 5.    Sparano 0-28 SU | 4-24 ATS (14%) Most Games When Leading By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter 1.    Belichick 234-16 SU | 212-30-8 ATS (88%) 2.    Reid 183-21 SU |162-40-2 ATS (80%) 3.    Coughlin 115-14 SU | 106-21-2 ATS (84%) 4.    Shanahan 112-16 SU 95-31-2 ATS (75%) 5.    John Harbaugh 110-17 SU | 94-31-2 ATS (75%) |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers 8-Unit bet on the 49ers minus the 7 points and is valid up 7.5 points. Consider betting 75% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 25% on two parts consisting of 15% on the 49ers -4.5 points and 10% more at -1.5 points during the first half of action. Home teams in the conference championship that failed to cover the spread in their divisional win and had fewer than 30 minutes of time of possession are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The only loss was when the team was on the road. The Green Bay packers traveled to Seattle to take on the Seahawks as 8.5-point underdogs and enjoyed a 16-point half time lead. How, the Seahawks stormed back with 22 second-half points (15 of them scored in the fourth quarter) and won 28-22. So, home teams in this role are undefeated and in any round of the playoffs have gone 17-12-1 ATS for 59% and Supporting this bet on the 49ers is the following algorithm that has gone 25-13 (66%) SU and 25-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are: ·     Bet on home favorites in the playoffs. ·     Facing an opponent that won 5 or more games, but were outgained in the stats. ·     That opponent is coming off a home win. If in the Conference Championship Game Ø 11-3 SU | 12-2 86% ATS | 8-6 O-U |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs +4.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens 10-Unit bet on the Chiefs plus 3 or more points. Consider betting 60% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% on the Chiefs at +6.5 and then 20% more at +9.5 points during the first half of action. 5-Unit Bet OVER 44.5 points. Consider betting just 40% preflop on the total because the first quarter scoring in these Championship games sees the least amount of points scored. Then if the game does go accoding to plan, you will be able to add 30% more at 41.5 points and 30% more at 39.5 points at some point during the first half of action. The downside is that if the game starts out fast, you are likely to only have 40% bet on the Over preflop, but that also implies that bet will be winning by margin at the half. CBS Sports noted that Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers was 0-31 SU when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter and last week’s comeback against the Packer’s was the first time he and the 49ers overcame that type of deficit to win a game. However, this type of stat is a bit misleading starting with the fact that all NFL coaches and their teams have had few wins when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth. In 49ers history Mike Nolan went 0-27 and Dennis Erickson went 0-27, for instance. Bill Belichick went 19-102, Jeff Fisher went 12-108, Tom Coughlin went 15-94, and Andy Reid went 20-80 to round out the top-4 coaches records with 100 or more trailing by 5+ entering the fourth quarter. Speaking of Reid, he is tops on the coaching list with 20 come from behind fourth quarter wins trailing by 5+ points. In case you were wondering Jay Gruden went 0-34 for his career when trailing by 5+ points entering the fourth quarter. In week 16 on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs were priced as 11.5-point favorites and trailed by 20-7 entering the fourth and lost 20-14 to the AFC West Division rival Raiders. Ten of the 20 wins in this situation for coach Reid have occurred with the Chiefs and prior to that with the Eagles. With the Chiefs he is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games, so keep that in mind too if they are trailing entering the fourth. Since 2019, the Chiefs have played in a league-high 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed 6 or more-point leads at some point during these games. What is remarkable is Reid has won 26 of these 32 games and went 17-9 ATS and 18-8 OVER. So, I do see many lead changes in this AFC Championship game against the Ravens. Supporting this bet on the Chiefs is the following algorithm that has gone 31-39 SU and 49-21-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are: ·     Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. ·     Our dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games. ·     The host forced zero turnovers in their previous game. if the game occurs in the playoffs our dogs have gone 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Although just two games, these dogs have gone 1-1 and 2-0 ATS in the Conference Championship.            Player Prop bets for Both games today: 1)   Bet Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs -110 2)   Bet Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions +115 3)   Bet Kelce OVER 63.5 receiving yards -110 4)   Bet Pacheco OVER 15.5 longest rush -105 5)   Bet Pacheco Over 63.5 rushing yards -115 6)   Bet Goff OVER 2.5 passing TDs +300 7)   Bet George Kittle most receiving yards +550 Analysts will say that Kyle Hamilton will take away Kelce. Maybe. The fact that TEs have done well against this defense bodes well for Kelce. He’s had 71+ yards in each playoff game. The Chiefs will need him if they want to have a chance to score 20+ points. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +6.5 v. Lions | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Detroit 3:00 PM EST | NBC 10-Unit Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +6 points and is valid to 4.5 points although a drop in the line at this point would be rare. Please remember to bet with your heads and ne er over it on every bet I provide, especially these 10-UNIT max bets which have hit 68% on a 76-35 record across all sports and over 4 years of betting action. This also means they LOSE 32% of the time abd to be completely honest, there is no way I nor anyone else knows with any degree of certainty that this play will win this afternoon. So, a reminder that is a marathon and that I have proven for many years that profits are achieved not in one day or one week or even a month, but over 12 months or a full season.  Let’s look at some of the betting systems supporting the pick from the predictive models. Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing a foe coming off a game without recording a forced turnover has gone 41-57 SU (42%) and 65-33 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Making this system even better is that it has had NO seasons in which it lost money and if the game has taken place in any round of the playoffs it has recorded an insanely great 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS record for 88% winning bets.  If you have watched any my show appearances on ESPN Syracuse, SportsMap Radio, and Rotowire, you already know who important the metric called yards per points is to my predictive models. So, in the divisional round, road teams that have posted a defensive yards per point ratio of 20 or more over their last three games have gone 10-13 SU, but a healthy and profitable 15-8 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 20 years. A YPPT defensive ratio of 20 or more simply means that the team’s defense I playing at a high level and forcing their last three opponents to gain 20 yards on average to just 1 single point on the scoreboard. If the dog in this situation is priced at 4 or more points they have gone 10-3 ATS for 77% winning bets in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have gone 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. They have gone 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets with a total of 45 or more points. If our team is facing a foe that is allowing an average of 21 or more points over their last three games has produced an amazing 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets.     |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Detroit 3:00 PM EST | NBC Consider betting 50% preflop on the Over at the current price available and then look for a bit slower start to the game and add 25% more at 46.5 points and 44.5 points to complete the 7-Unit bet during the first half of action. To be clear you are making full game bet on the Over during the first half of action only. If you do not execute either of the 25% betting amounts at the prescribed numbers, then at the half if the price is 50.5 or fewer points add the 50% at that time. In the divisional round of the playoffs teams that have played Under the posted total in four consecutive games has seen the Over go 6-1. In the divisional round of the playoffs teams that have played Under the posted total in three consecutive games and is the dog has seen the Over go 12-4 for 75% winning bets. Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have seen the Over go 24-12 for 67% winning bets averaging an ou margin of 7.3 PPG over the posted total last 20 seasons. If our team has allowed an average of 17 or fewer points over their last three games, the OVER has gone 14-4 for 78% winning bets. Â |
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01-20-24 | Packers +10.5 v. 49ers | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Green Bay vs San Francisco Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA 8:15 PM EST | FOX 8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 9.5 points 1-Unit optional bet on the Packers using the money line Supporting the play on the Packers is a terrific betting system where betting on underdogs in the divisional round that are on a three or more-game win streak has earned a highly profitable 24-15 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Moreover, if our underdog is priced between 4.5 and 10 points they improve to a highly profitable 16-7 ATS for 70% winning tickets. If the total is 50 or more points, these dogs have been near-perfect going 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets. Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that have gone four consecutive games with no more than one committed turnover and facing a foe that is coming off a game where they forced no more than one turnover have gone 23-14-1 ATS for 62% winning bets. In games with a posted total of 47 or more points they have gone 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. Betting the Over with any team coming off an upset win, which is Green Bay, and now facing a foe that lost their previous game by three or fewer points to a divisional rival has earned a solid 27-9 Over record for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is 45 or more points the Over has gone an exceptional 14-4 for 78% winning bets. |
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01-20-24 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens 4:30 PM EST | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ 8-Unit Bet on the Texans +9.5 points and is valid to 8.5 points. The line is not likely to move and if it does I do not see it going more than ½ point in either direction barring some major breaking news of a star player being ruled out. Live Betting StrategyConsider betting 6 units on the Texans preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or when the Ravens retake the lead during the first half of action. Another strategy is to bet 5 units on the spread and 1-unit on the money line preflop and then look to add the remaining 2-units if the Ravens attain a 7 or more-point first lead. The negative part of these strategies is that the Texans score first and never give up that lead. Situational Betting AlgorithmThis one is a jaw dropper for sure. Betting on teams in the divisional round that lose the same-season previous meeting by double digits and is now facing that foe on the rod and with a game total of 48 or fewer points has gone 5-6 SU and 10-1 ATS for 91% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Three of these matchups went into overtime. On January 15, 2005 of the 2004 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers hosted the NY Jets as 8.5 point favorites and needed overtime to secure a 20-17 win. On January 14th, 2007, the Chicago Bears hosted the Seattle Seahawks priced as 8.5-point home favorites and needed overtime to win the game 27-24. The Baltimore Ravens hosted the Denver Broncos on January 12, 2013 priced as 9.5-point favorites and needed overtime to win 38-35. Notice that each of these games had a significant favorite matching the line for today’s game between the Ravens and the Texans. The Texans lost to the Ravens on the road in the opening week of the season by the final score of 25-9 and failed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point road dog. Rookie QB CJ Stroud took that loss and used it to greatly improve over the course of the season and is now playing at an elite level. He finished the regular season ranked 8th with 4,108 passing yards and threw for 25 TDs with just 5 interceptions. He ranked 6th best with a 100.8 QBR and posted three game winning drives. The weather will be in the mid-20’s and winds will be at 15 MPH at the start of the game, but will be decreasing throughout the game. So, I do not see this being a disadvantage for either of these teams. The Stadium is a bowl and the wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone, so there may be an added advantage for field Goal attempts with the wind. The wind can swirl in this stadium, but nothing like how unpredictable the wins are in the NY Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands. Teams that are on a three or more-game win streak coming into the divisional round of the playoffs and are priced as underdogs of 4.5 to 10 points have produced an 8-14-1 SU mark and a 16-7 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles -155 v. Bucs | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -155 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers I am betting 3.5 units using the money line and 3.5 units -2.5 points. That equals 7-units, which accounts for the money line being -150 and the probability of 77% that the Eagles win this game. In the playoffs road teams priced between a 3.5-point dog and favorite that has the better (lower) more efficient offensive yard per point ratio has gone 22-19 SU and 24-15-2 ATS for 62% winning bets. If in the wild card round, these road teams have done extremely well going 20-8 SU and 21-6-1 ATS for 78% winning bets. If that road team has a better yards per point ratio by 1 or more has produced a 9-5 SU record and 11-3 ATS mark for 79% winning bets. The Eagles have the 4th best YPPT ratio at 13.91 while the Bucs rank 18th with a 15.29 YPPT ratio. The Eagles have lost five of their last 6 games and lost all 6 games to the spread. Teams that have lost by 27 or more points to the spread over their previous three games has gone 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets in the Wild Card Round. The Eagles rank worst having lost to the spread by 43.5 points over their previous three games. Road teams that have lost to the spread by more than 10 points over their previous three regular season games and facing a host that has won to the spread by 10 or more points over their previous three regular season games has gone 65% ATS on a 13-7 record in the playoffs. Betting on teams using the money line fresh off a 14 or more-point upset loss priced as the favorite and has won 60 to 75% of their games on the season have gone 90-48-1 SU (65%) since 1989. If the game occurs in the second half of the regular season from week 9 on out including the playoffs has produced a 59-31 SU record and 50-37-3 ATS mark good for 58% winning bets since 1989. If priced as a road favorite from the week 9 on out, these road teams have gone 22-7 SU for 76% and 19-9-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 1989. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Eagles to score 24 or more points and to have fewer dropped passes than the Bucs. Over the past five seasons, the Eagles are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have scored 24 or more points and had fewer dropped passes than the host. In home games played over the past five seasons, the Bucs are just 4-7 SU and 2-89 ATS for 18% when allowing 24 or more points and having more dropped passes than their guests since 2019. |
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01-15-24 | Steelers +10.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Highmark Stadium, Orchard, Park, NY Weather is going to be an issue with sustained winds of 12 to 17 MPH and a below zero wind chill. The wind will be out of the NNW and will make the one side play mostly downwind with a slight left to right breeze and into the wind with a right-left head wind. So, on kickoffs into the wind it will be nearly possible to achieve a touchback and more likely the receiver of the kickoff will catch the ball around the 10-yard line. I also think you will see lie drive squib type of kicks when kicking off into the wind. Any field goal attempt with the wind has the potential be achievable from 60+ yards despite the frigid temperatures. Right-footed kickers can draw the ball spinning it so it curves right-to-left with the wind holding the amount of draw and resulting in a mostly straight kick. On long range kicks, they can slice the football aiming a bit outside of the left goal post and allow the wind to push the ball further and from left-to-right though the goal posts. The kicking game (including punts) will be a major factor in this game. Tyler Bass is the kicker for the Bills and made 24 of 29 attempts (82%) and converted 49 of 50 extra points. For his four-year career with the Bills, he is 32 for 32 from inside 30 yards, 36 of 43 from 30 to 39 yards including three misses this season, 26 for 31 from 40 to 49 yards, and 12 for 19 from 50 and beyond. The veteran Chris Boswell is the Steeler’s kicker and he had an excellent season making 29 of 31 field goal attempts and 27 of 28 extra points. Through 9 seasons with the Steelers he has made 62 of 62 from inside the 30, 64 of 71 from 30 to 39 yards, 73 of 93 from 40 to 49 yards, and 30 of 37 from 50 yards and beyond. Despite kicking on the road, Boswell brings a significant advantage over Bass in this game. In the Wild Card Round, the underdog with the better defensive yards per point allowed ratio has gone 23-26 SU and 31-17-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. If our dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points they have gone 13-17 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets. The team that has averaged fewer dropped passes per game and is priced as a road underdog has gone 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets in the Wild Card Round since 2019. The Steelers ranked third best in the regular season averaging just 0.94 dropped passes per game while the Bills averaged 1.67 dropped pass per game ranking 20th. |
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01-14-24 | Packers +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys 4:30 EST | Fox| AT&T Stadium,. Arlington, TX I do not expect that the lie will move against the Packers and if any movement occurs it will be attributed to the public bettors., who will be on the Cowboys. I expect the Packers to get off to a solid start and score first. If they do score first, it would limit the live bet opportunity. So, I like simply making the 8-Unit bet preflop. Of course, you can bet 7 units preflop and save the last unit for live in game at a price of 11.5 points. Now, if they do not score first all is not lost either as 16 of 45 games played saw comeback wins by teams that did not score first. In the wild card round teams that scored first went on to a 29-16 SU record and 24-20-1 ATS for 55% winning bets. If the team scored first via a TD, they went on to a 25-12 record and 22-14-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets. Road teams that were tied or led at the half have gone on to a 30-11 SU record and 31-7-3 ATS (82%) including a 27-13-1 Under mark for 68%. Road teams that led by 6+ points at the half went on to a 20-6 SU record and 20-4-2 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2002. If the road dog led by 6+ points at the half, they went on to a 15-5 SU mark and 18-2 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2002. Betting on road dogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the wild card round of the playoffs with a posted total that is higher than the dog’s average total during the regular season has gone 18-21 SU, 27-12 ATS for 69% and the Under has done well going 23-15-1 for 61%. If you like the Under, my recommendation is to wait and look to get a number closer to 57.5 points during the first half of action. Here is one of the best betting algorithms I my database consisting of more than 5000 across all sports and has earned a 17-20 SU record, but a 31-6 ATS mark for 84% winning bets since 2018. Bet on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. If the game occurs in the playoff rounds, these dogs have gone 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS with the Under going 5-1. |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Bet the Over in a game priced between 43 and 50 points after game number 8 and the playoffs where one of the teams is averaging 6.75 to 7.5 yards per pass play and is coming off a game in which they gained 8 or more YPPA and facing a defense that is allowing 5.25 to 5.99 YPPA has produced a highly profitable 29-7 Over record good for 81% winning bets over the past 33 seasons. In the playoffs the Over has gone 5-1 for 83% winning bets. If the total is between 44.5 and 48.5 points, the OVER has produced a 22-4 record for 85% winning bets. Texans are 29-15 Over in home games and coming off two straight Under result games. Browns HC Stefanski is 11-3 Over in road games after having won four or five of their last six games. |
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01-07-24 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Buffalo vs Miami Hard Rock Stadium 8:20 ET | NBA The following betting algorithm supports a betting opportunity using the money line and has produced a 32-13 record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 years. The requirements are: ·      Bet on road teams facing a winning record host. ·      The road team defeated the host in their previous game. ·      The game occurs in the second half of the regular season. ·      The road teams scored 35 or more points in their previous matchup against the host. ·      The total is 48 or more points. The Bills are 24-20 SU and 26-17-1 ATS for 61% winning bets when they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games spanning games played since 2010. If they are facing a divisional foe in this situation, they have gone 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2010. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games facing a divisional foe and matching or exceeding these performance expectations, they have gone on to an impressive 21-2 SU record and 19-4 ATS mark good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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01-07-24 | Cowboys v. Commanders +13 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders 4:25 ET | FedEx Field, Landover, MD Betting on divisional home dogs revenging a same-season blowout loss of 27 or more points in the final four weeks of the regular season have gone 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. So, don’t think that Dallas is just going to waltz into FedEx Field and get a double-digit lead early and coast to a win. Of course, that is a possibility, but the numbers beg to differ despite the Commanders being a horrible team. The line for this game opened before the season started with Dallas a 3-point favorite at the Circa. Line movements of 7 or more points from the opening become fade or contrarian betting opportunities that have hit 65% ATS over the past five years.  So, these opportunities always look like bad decisions and they do lose 35% of the time, but over the course of the second half of the regular season, they have provided added profits. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles -4.5 v. Giants | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants Consider betting on the Eagles using the first half line to minimize the potential that the Eagles will pull starters at some point if Dallas does get out to double-digit lead. However, we are on Washington for a reason. Even if Dallas gets a 3 or more-score lead, they may even pull starters in the fourth quarter and giving Washington a shot at the backdoor cover. Just saying. Betting on favorites that are scoring between 23.5 and 27.5 PPG and facing a foe that is allowing 23.5 to 27 PPG and with our team coming off back-to-back games in which 50+ points were scored in each game has produced a 75-22 SU record and 62-32-3 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2010. If the game occurs in the final four weeks of the season, our team has gone 18-5 SU and 15-7-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010. If a divisional matchup our team has gone 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS for 73% winners. |
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01-06-24 | Steelers -3 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens 8-Unit best bet on the Steelers minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to 4.5 points. Be careful presuming this bet is a winner before it starts simply because the Ravens may not be starting anyone from the first units. So, with that statement, consider betting 70% of your betting amount preflop on the Steelers and then look to add the remaining 30% if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or retake the lead at some point during the first half of action. Betting on favorites that are facing a divisional foe that they defeated earlier in the season, is coming off two consecutive OVER results and with a total that is lower than each of the past two game’s totals have gone 46-33 for 58% winning bets since 1989. If the favorite is priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points, they improve to 40-10 SU and 34-16 ATS for 68% winning bets and 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS and 9-4 Under since 2015. |
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12-31-23 | Cardinals v. Eagles -13 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
Arizona vs Philadelphia My recommendation is to bet 80% of your normal 8-unit bet amount preflop and the look to add the remaining 20% betting amount with the Eagles priced as 9.5-point favorites  or at whatever price is available if the Cardinals score the first touchdown of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Granted, this scenario is not likely to happen, but it never hurts to have the plan in place if it does. I do see AJ Brown having a monster game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to cover anyone no matter if it is zone or man coverage situations. The Eagles will be in much better shape and nearly at full strength when the playoffs begin as they continue to get more starters returning from the IR. So, with pizza money, I am recommending a bet on AJ Brown over 83.5 receiving yards. Eagles are 28-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. They are also 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS following three straight ATS losses over the past five seasons. From the predictive model, the Eagles are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. |
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12-31-23 | Dolphins +3 v. Ravens | Top | 19-56 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Miami vs Baltimore M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore Consider betting 80% of your bet amount on the Dolphins preflop and then look to at 20% more at a price making the Dolphins a 7.5-point underdog or if the Ravens score the first touchdown of the game. Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Our dog has allowed |
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12-31-23 | Raiders +4.5 v. Colts | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Raiders vs Colts 1 ET I would bet 7-units preflop on this one and look to add that final unit using the money line if the Colts score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games and facing a host coming off a game in which they did not force a turnover has gone 31-36 SU and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season and is a non-divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 17-15 SU and 25-7 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-31-23 | 49ers v. Commanders +14 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
49ers vs Washington  1:00 ET | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville
Betting on teams that have failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen their last three games play OVER by 30 or more points have gone 40-45 SU, but 60-24-1 SATS for 71% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. In the last four weeks of the regular season double-digit home underdogs are 15-62 SU, but a highly profitable 48-27-2 ATS for 64% winning bets and if the total in these games is 45 or more points, our home dogs with fleas has gone 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. |
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12-28-23 | Jets +7.5 v. Browns | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Thursday NFL on Prime 8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points. Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002. So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points.  I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets. Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets. |
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12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 36.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Thursday NFL on Prime 8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points. Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002. So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points.  I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets. Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers Consider betting 7 units preflop and then look to add 1.5 units each at 45.5 and 42.5 points during the first half of action. Let’s look at this incredibly profitable betting algorithm that supports the OVER Bet. Betting the Over in games where one of the teams is playing with extra rest and is priced as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points from Week 9 on out and is a matchup of teams with the same record and is above 0.500 has earned a 16-3 record for 84% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Very rare, but still an extremely strong betting algorithm. Here is a variation of that system has provided more betting opportunities and has gone 44-20-2 Over for 69% winning bets. The requirements are to bet the Over with a team with a winning record that is facing a foe with the same record and the total is 42.5 or more points and with the game occurring after Week 9. From the predictive models we are expecting the 49ers and the Ravens to each score 21 or more points. In past home games with a total of 46 or more points since 1993, the 49ers have seen the Over go 18-3 for 86% winning bets when both teams have scored 21 or more points. In past road games since 1993, the Ravens have seen the Over go a perfect 14-0. Combined that is a 32-3 (91%) Over metric.  |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals +4 v. Bears | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears Did you know that dogs of 3.5 to 4.5 points in the final three weeks of the regular season are 40-41 SU and 58-23 ATS for 71.6% winning bets since 1990.  Here is a first half line with a road team facing a host that is coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards and is a solid ground attack team averaging 130 or more RYPG has earned a 35-11-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. So, if you like the Cardinals as I obviously do, consider betting them with a pizza money bet if the Bears score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.  |
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12-24-23 | Cowboys v. Dolphins -2 | Top | 20-22 | Push | 0 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins 4:25 ET, Week 16 Christmas Eve 10-Unit bet on the Dolphins minus the 2 points. Consider betting 80% of your bets size preflop and then look for Dallas to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action and then add the remaining 20% on the Dolphins. Betting home teams coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe and the current game is a non-conference matchup has earned a 52-15 SU record and 47-18-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. If the game occurs from game number 10 on, these home teams have gone 20-5 SU and 18-6-1 ATS for 75% winning bets. From the predictive models we are expecting the Dolphins to score 28 or more points and gain at least 8 yards per pass. In games over the past five seasons the Dolphins are 59-4 SU and 55-6-2 ASTS for 90% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. If the Dolphins have been at home they have gone 31-0 SU and 26-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets. The Cowboys have yet to defeat a winning record team on the road and have defeated just one team (Eagles) all season. They played horribly poor last week in Buffalo and were dominated on both sides of the ball. Moreover, they are averaging 40 PPG in home games and just 21 PPG on the road and is by far the widest differential of any team in the NFL this season. The Cowboys scoring differential between home and away is the most since the 2014 Green Bay Packers posted a 17.1 PPG differential, the Ravens in 2004 and the 49ers in 1991 posted 16.4 PPG differentials. In 2014 the Packers won the NFC North Division and went on to defeat the  Cowboys 26-21 in the Divisional Round and then lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17 in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl on the last play of the game to the New England Patriots. The 1991 49ers and the 2004 Ravens failed to make the playoffs. [DB] Elijah Campbell (Knee) - Questionable [12/21/2023] => Campbell was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [DE] Emmanuel Ogbah (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Ogbah was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [OL] Austin Jackson (Oblique) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Jackson was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [CB] Cam Smith (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Smith was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [CB] Xavien Howard (Hip) - Questionable [12/13/2023] => Howard was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. [WR] Tyreek Hill (Ankle) - Questionable [12/11/2023] => Hill was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys. From all my resources Hill is a game-time decision but has a 90% probability of playing in this critical game. Even if he does not start, the 10-Unit Bet is valid. |
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12-24-23 | Jaguars +105 v. Bucs | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-Unit Bet on the Jaguars using the money line if the spread is -2 or fewer points. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s  that have failed to cover the spread in three or more games and facing a foe that is on a two or more-game ATS win streak has earned a highly profitable 28-13-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets and also has gone 29-14 SU for 67.4% winning bets. If our team is on the road these records improve to 14-4 SU and 13-3-2 ATS for 81% winning bets. |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers +2.5 | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 38 m | Show | |
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh 8-Unit Bet on the Steelers plus the points currently priced as 2.5-point home underdogs and is valid if they remain the underdog. This will end up being a contrarian bet as the Steelers have lost four of their last five games and three straight. They have scored just 67 points over their past five games ranking fifth least in the NFL. The Bengals rank 8th most scoring 125 points over their last five games but are prone to regression in this divisional matchup. Tomlin has made some questionable head scratching calls, but no one can take away his ability to prepare his team on the defensive end in a must win game. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have lost three consecutive games to the spread and facing a foe that has covered their last two games ATS has produced a 33-16 SU record for 67.3% winners and 32-14-3 ATS for 70% winning bets, including a 31-18 UNDER mark for 63% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If the foe has covered the spread in three consecutive games, then our home team has gone 17-10 SU for 63% and 18-9 ATS for 67% winning bets including a 16-10-1 Under mark for 62% winning best over the past 10 seasons. If a divisional matchup our home team has gone 16-6 SU and 15-4-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is a money line system that has produced an 86-37 record for 68% since 1990. The requirements are to be on home team that is facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous same season meeting and with that foe coming off a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game occurring in the last three weeks of the regular season. If our home team has a 0.500 or better record, they soar to greater heights posting a 68-25 record for 73% winning bets since 1990 and 10-4 over the past three seasons (71.4%). Also, if our home team has struggled offensively scoring 70 or fewer points over their past five games, has a 0.500 record or better and facing a divisional foe from Week 14 on out, have gone 17-13 SU, 19-7-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 1990. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks UNDER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Seattle 8-Unit best bet Under the total currently priced at 45 points. I recommend getting 50% to 75% of your bet amount done before 6:00 ET given the uncertainty surrounding whether Hurts can start or not. If he cannot, then the betting line will push closer towards a pickem and the total will move lower. If hurts does play, the total may move marginally higher ahead of the kickoff. So, look for both teams to get out to faster than expected starts and consider adding the remaining betting amount on the Under at 49.5 or more points during the first half of action. Betting on the Under in a game with a total between 42.5 and 49 points in the month of December (final five weeks of the season) with one of the teams (Eagles) having lost to the spread by 21 or more points over their last three games has produced a 82-41 record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is coming off two straight losses, the Under has gone 60-25 for 71% winning bets and if our team has a winning record, the Under is 9-2 over the past 10 seasons. Â |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills -1.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Dallas vs Buffalo 8-Unit Bet on the Bills minus the 2-points. Currently, 58% of the tickets but just 35% of the handle is on the Cowboys. The recency bias is a big factor in this game as the Cowboys are two solid back-to-back wins while the Bills held off a furious rally and strange officiating to get the ‘must win’ they needed. It remains a desperate now or never game for the Bills given that two 7-6 teams won Saturday in the Bengals and the Colts. They come in to the week ranked 11tnh in the playoff standings and after yesterday’s results are in the 9th position. With a win, they may remain in the 9th position, but with a loss, they would drop two positions to 11th. There is a myriad of playoff scenarios today, but if there are a few upsets, and the Bills win, they could be one of six AFC teams with 8-6 records with just three weeks remaining. The Cowboys are a different team on the road going 3-3 SU and ATS, but are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in home games. The Cowboys are the most prolific offense averaging 40 PPG at home, but are 9th in the NFL scoring an average of 23 PPG on the road. The Cowboys’ scoring differential between home and away games is 16.2 PPG and is the widest in the NFL by 5 PPG to the second-widest differential of the Titans. Moreover, the Cowboys average 3 dropped passes per game on the road, which is the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys defense in road games ranks fifth worst seeing only 1.17 opponents drops. From Week 14 on out teams that have a winning record but three or more less wins than their foe have gone 34-17 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If it is a non-conference matchup, their record soars to 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2004. The predictive model projects that the Bills will score 26 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Cowboys. In past home games since 2019 in which the Bills have scored 26 or more points and have had the same or fewer turnovers has led to an excellent 25-1 SU and 18-8 ATS record for 69% winning bets. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
Commanders vs Rams Betting on road underdogs that are facing a losing record team that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games has earned a 50-57 SU record and 66037-4 ATS for 64% winning bets dating back to 1990 and is 14-6 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons. As for the Under bet the Commanders are the worst defensive team in the league, but they do matchup well against this Rams offense. They rank 32nd in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, and points allowed per play. The Rams offense rank 30th with a 59% completion percentage and matchup against the Commanders, who rank 13th allowing 64% completions. Betting the Under with a favorite of 6.5 to 9.5 points from Week 5 on out and is facing an opponent that has seen the total play over by 30 or more points spanning their last five games has earned a highly profitable 23-87 record good for 74% winning bets since 2017. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns mins the 3-points and is good to 4.5 points.  Betting on all teams priced between the 3’s and now facing a foe that has allowed 14 or fewer points in each of their past two games has earned a solid 63-29-5 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the foe (Bears) had five or fewer dropped passes in their previous game, our team has then gone on to a 36-13-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the pat 10 seasons.    |
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12-16-23 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 41 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Steelers vs Colts Betting on the OVER in a matchup of teams with identical record and are at .500 or better, the total is 42.5 or more points and one of the teams has had more than 7 days of rest since their last game has earned a 44-20-2 Over record good for 69% winning bets. If the game takes place from Week 12 on out, the Over has produced a 32-13-1 record for 71% winning bets. |
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12-14-23 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 34.5 | Top | 21-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Consider betting 8-Units preflop and the look to add the remaining 2-units at 31.5 points during the first half of action. Betting the Over with a team that has lost three of their last four games (Raiders) and is a matchup of teams that have won 25 to 40% of their games on the season has produced a highly profitable 86-47-2 for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the team is at home and priced between the 3’s the Over has gone 28-12 for 70% winning bets. Every season over the past 10 seasons has made profits making this an extraordinary betting algorithm you want to keep and track forever. |
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +7 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs NY Giants 10-Unit Bet on the Giants plus the 6-points. Consider betting this game by placing a 7.5-unit amount preflop at +6 and then look in game and bet the remaining 2.5 units if the Packers score a TD first or score a TD to go up 10-0 or if they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action only. Betting on teams that are facing a foe that has won their last three games priced as a dog has produced a highly profitable 26-20 SU (57%) and 28-18 ATS for 61% winning bets since 1990. If our team is playing at home they improve modestly to 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS for 63% including a 17-6-1 Under mark for 74% winning bets. If our team is the dog or priced at pick-em they have gone to produce a highly profitable 13-11 SU mark and 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets. If the game takes place from Week 9 on out, they soar to an incredible 8-7 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets. Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are slow starting ones being outscored by 5 or more PPG in the first half of action and after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 24-33 SU and 40-15-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Betting on road teams priced between 3- and 7-point underdogs that have two or fewer losses that defeated a divisional foe, who has three or more losses in the previous meeting have gone 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets. Eagles are 7-0 ATS when on the road and following a game in which they allowed 30 or more points; 31-14-1 ATS following two straight games in which 50 or more points were scored. Cowboys are 16-38-2 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.  Eagles have played a much more difficult schedule to date than the Cowboys, who have yet defeat a team with a winning record. From my predictive models, we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have an edge in time of possession. In past games when meeting these projections and also facing a divisional foe has seen them go 54-2 SU and 48-6-2 and since 2017 they have gone 12-0 SU as a dog. |
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12-10-23 | Bills +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Bills vs. Chiefs Buffalo is off the BYE and the Chiefs have not been playing well of late. Over a three stretch that began 5 games ago, they did not score a single point in the second half. Buffalo is healthier than they have been since the start of the season and are in desperation mode at 6-6 and truly playing with their season on the line. The following betting algorithm has done quite well. ·     Bet on road teams facing a conference foe. ·     The road team has failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last four games. ·     The game occurs in December. ·      51-47 SU (52%)| 67-30-1 ATS (69%) last 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between pick and 7.5 points has seen our road team go 31-12 ATS (72%) and supports a bet on the Bills Bills are 11-2-1 ATS in roads games following a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points; 22-7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in road games they have gone 49-5 SU and ATS and 15-4 SUATS for 79% over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-10-23 | Lions v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Lions vs. Bears 8-Unit Bet on the Bears plus the 3.5 points and is a valid bet if they remain the underdog. Betting against favorites of not more than 4.5 points that are playing in week 14 and later and are coming off a road win and have a winning record on the season have gone 14-21 SU and 11-22-2 for 33% winning bets since 1989. If that false favorite defeated a divisional foe in a previous meeting, they underperform even more going 5-10 SU and 3-11-1 ATS for a miserable 21% winning bets. This all supports a best bet opportunity on the Chicago Bears. |
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12-10-23 | Colts +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Colts vs. Bengals Betting on teams coming off an ATS win in which they won the game outright by a single score , completed 30 or more passes in that win and now find themselves priced as a home favorite have gone 24-30 SU and 20-34 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.  If the total is 44 or more points in these games, our road warrior has gone 22-14 SU and 26-10 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. |
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12-10-23 | Rams +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Rams vs. Ravens Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games have gone 16-19 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2018. If the total in these games is 40 or more points, these road dogs have gone 13-18 SU and 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots +6 v. Steelers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers I was holding my nose tightly given the stickiness of this road dog, who has won just two games this season. However, as we saw on Monday, which was not the first time, teams that look to have minimal chance of being competitive let alone have a chance to win the game outright, somehow find a way to shock NFL fans. I do believe this is one of those games. Betting on road underdogs that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their previous three games have gone 21-33 SU and 37-16-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2019. If our road underdog is priced between 3 and 9 points they have done even better posting a 20-5 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets and if the game occurs from Week 13 on out, these dogs with a serious case of fleas and badly needed bath are a perfect 10-0 ATS and 5-5 SU since 2019. Â Betting on terrible teams that are priced between 3.5 and 10-point dogs and averaging 14 or fewer PPG on the season and scored fewer than 10 points in each of their last two games have gone 36-18 for 67% winning bets since 1990. If the game is occurring from Week 9 on out, these dogs have gone 12-15 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets. |
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12-04-23 | Bengals v. Jaguars -10 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
Betting on home favorites from -5 to -12 points in a game with a total of 40 or fewer points that have covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and has won 60 to 75% of their games and facing a losing record team has earned a solid 31-6 SU (84%) and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Betting on home teams that are facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 6 or more YPPL and was outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 29-13-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Bengals defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.41 yards per play. I have been hearing and more importantly seeing that the offensive play calls are now being called by Doug Pederson and since this ‘rumor’ began to circle around the Jaguars offense has been quite good. In the past two weeks, the Jaguars have scored 58 points, they have won and covered 7 of their last 8 games with the only loss and failed cover to the 49ers, who are destroying everyone on their schedule since the BYE week three weeks ago. The Bengals have lost and failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Their ground game has all but disappeared and gained just 25 yards on 11 rushes in their 16-10 loss to divisional foe Pittsburgh. The Bengals D has allowed 153, 157, and 188 rushing yards in each of their last three games. Pederson is 7-0 ATS after covering the spread in three of his last four games as the HC of the Jaguars; 10-1 ATS in home games when facing a foe that averages less than 1 turnover per game for his career. From the predictive models we are looking for the Jaguars to have 100 or more total yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In previous home games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to a 173-5 SU record and 146-28-4 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets since 2019. |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers +6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Kansas City vs Green Bay Packers Betting on dogs that are coming off two consecutive wins priced as the underdog in each one and has won between 40 and 49% of their 8 or more games played on the season has earned a solid 28-10-2. ATS for 74% winners over the past 30 seasons and is 6-0 ATS and 4-2 SU since 2019. Chiefs are 1-7 ATS when coming off an ATS win and facing a foe also coming of an ATS win. Chiefs are 0-6 ATS coming off a win in which that opponent had a double-digit lead. Chiefs are 1-10 ATS coming off a double-digit win. From the predictive model, the Packers are 29-2 SU and 27-4 ATS (87%) when scoring 21 or more points and forcing 2 or more opponent turnovers in home games since 2014. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 46.5 | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles Lincoln Financial Field This is game 4 of the 6-game gauntlet of having to facing winning record teams, who are also playoff and divisional contenders. The game will be the third one in the past 13 days and coming off the OT and come from behind win over the Bills last Sunday adds the fatigue factor the Eagles team is dealing with. However, the entire betting world is on the 49ers and I did put out a betting angle and breakdown supporting the 49ers earlier the week on many shows including ESPN Syracuse. My appetite to bet the 49ers has been reduced to a tepid one to say the least as I find it extremely difficult to fade this Eagles team is 28-2 with Hurts under center. They may be getting smoked in games in the box score, but the style points just do not matter to a team that is 10-1 and has will to win second to none. Yet, the total in this game is the opportunity presented by the models. Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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12-03-23 | Lions -4 v. Saints | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints Betting on teams that have won 60% or more of their games after having played at least 8 games and is coming off a home loss have gone 63-28 SU and 61-28-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Lions defense has been getting better each week with the exception of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. However, winning teams at this point of the season refocus after a humiliating home loss and get back on track. The Lions defense ranks 11th in the NFL having allowed 1038 yards after the catch or 94 yards per game this season. On offense the Lions have been outstanding in the passing game ranking 6th with 1,411 yards gained after the catch. I do not see the Saints being able to contain the Lions ariel attack and see the Lions winning this one fairly easily. |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans This is the highest total each of these teams have played in and stands to reason given the various matchups favoring a much higher scoring affair than is expected. Betting on the Over in a game with a total priced at 47 or more points with one of the teams (Texans) coming off a three or fewer point loss to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in December has earned a solid 24-11-1 for 69% winning bets since 1996. Betting the Over in a game with a total priced between 45 and 49.5 points that is coming off a loss of fewer than 7 points to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in the second half of the season has earned a 31-13-1 record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Â |
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12-03-23 | Dolphins v. Commanders OVER 49 | Top | 45-15 | Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders The weather in the DC region is not going to be a factor in this game and current forecasts are for no rain to start to the game. Temps are milder than normal for this time of year. The Commanders rank last or near last in 10 of my defense power ratings. They rank last in scoring defense, points per play allowed, TDs allowed per game, third-worst in passing yards allowed per game. Miami ranks second in scoring offense, first in offensive yards per game, first in points-per-play, first in yards gained per play, first in red zone scoring percentage, first in TDs scored per game. Get the point? Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. Plus, if we increase the PPG to 30 PPG, this system has gone 11-4 OVER for 73% winning bets for the base part of this system. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 80 h 42 m | Show |
Seahawks vs Cowboys Betting on road teams in a non-divisional clash that are coming off a divisional game and after this game they will take on a divisional foe (Sandwich) on the road has gone 16-9 ATS for 64% winning bets and the OVER is 16-8-1 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl Champions in their wins, but then have struggled against losing record teams such as the Arizona Cardinals, for instance. This is a ‘sandwich’ game for both teams and serious regression spot for the Cowboys. Betting on teams that have failed to covered the spread by 33 or more points spanning their last five games and taking on a foe that has seen the OVER go 33 or more points spanning their last five games has produced a 34-33 SU record and 47-19-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-27-23 | Bears +3 v. Vikings | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Betting on road teams priced between a 3.5-point underdog and favorite that is coming off a road loss but covered the spread and with the game taking place in November has earned an outstanding 21-11 SU (66%) and 24-8 ATS record for 75% winning bets since 1989. I only like betting the money line in-game if the Vikings score a TD first or go up 10-0 in the first half of action. So, making the 8-Unit bet preflop and then add pizza money sized wager if the Vikings do get off to a solid start. The Vikings are just 17-23 SU and 11-28-1 ASTS fort 28% winning bets when coming off back-to-back games allowing less than 75 rushing yards in each game. The Vikings allowed 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts top the Broncos last week and 65 rushing yards on 15 attempts to the Saints the week prior to that one. They have also covered the spread in their last six games. Home favorites that are on a five or more-game ats win streak and facing a divisional foe that has won less than 40% of their games have gone just 4-10 ATS for 29% winning bets. Let’s bet on the Chicago Bears and get the 3 points. |
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11-26-23 | Bills v. Eagles UNDER 48.5 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 52 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles Betting the Under in a game played from Week 9 on out and where the home favorite has won at least 80% of their games on the season and is coming off a road upset win has seen the Under go 24-12 for 67% winning bets since 1989. |
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11-26-23 | Rams +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 98 h 34 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Betting on a team that has failed to cover the spread in each of their last games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in two consecutive games and in a game priced between the 3’s has gone 31-14-3 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If the game is a divisional showdown, our team, the Rams, have gone 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets. |
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11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos UNDER 35.5 | Top | 12-29 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 19 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos Last week the Browns won a critical game 13-10 at home over their divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers. They were 1.5-point favorites and were covering the spread for 70% of the game, but needed a late scoring drive by rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson to set up the last second field goal to break a 10-10 tie. They also failed to convert on 13 of 17 third down situations and the two teams combined converted just 7 of 31 third situations. That is not efficient ball control offense no matter you would twist it around and it does carry over in the next game. Road teams that failed to convert on 13 of or more third down attempts, but still managed to win that game at home have seen the Under go 21-8 for 72.4% winning tickets since 2001. If the total is less than 50 points in these games the Under has gone 19-8 for 70% winning bets. If the matchup is a non-divisional game, the Under then soars to 15-4 for 79% winning bets. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 41 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 30 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Bet on the Under with a total of 44 or fewer points from week 9 on out and the home team is coming off an embarrassing loss of 21 or more points has produced a 38-22-1 Under record for 63% winning bets since 2013. If that previous blowout loss was on the road to a divisional foe, the Under has gone 14-8-1 for 64% winning bets since 2009. If the matchup see the home team with a losing record while the guest has a winning record improves the Under record to 11-4 for 73% winning bets since 2013. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Betting on favorites of 3 or more points and facing a divisional foe, are coming off a win, the last two games went OVER the total, and the last three games have seen the total lower than the previous game has gone 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. This total is priced at 47 points, last week the total was 48 points and week prior to that one the total was 48.5 points. We were on the Chicago Bears as a 7.5-point dog and they were leading by 6 points entering the fourth quarter against the Lions, who came from behind and won the game. Teams that have exceeded their team scoring total line by more than 10 points over their last two games and are favored by four or more points against a divisional foe and are coming off a come from behind win in which they were trailing by 6 or more points at the start of the fourth quarter have gone 17-9-1 ATS for 65.4% winning bets. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
Eagles vs Chiefs The Chiefs have had 23 games – most in the NFL - among 49 played since 2021 that they and their opponent both had 7 or more-point leads in the same game. So, this lends itself to multiple lead changes for this game against the Eagles. They are both the best team currently in the NFL and do think there will be lead changes during the first half of action. So, let the scoring volatility work for you and consider betting 70% on the Eagles preflop and then if KC scores the first TD of the game and it occurs during the first half of action then add the 30% remaining balance on the Eagles. Betting on road underdogs that have gained 7 or more yards per pass in each of their last two games and facing a host that allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass in their previous game has earned highly profitable 53-25-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between 2 and 7.5 points, they have gone on to a 38-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. Player Props Over Swift rushing and passing yards 77.5 at FanDuel. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings v. Broncos -2.5 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Vikings vs Broncos Betting on losing record teams from Week 9 on out that are facing a foe that has won 50 to 60% of their games and coming off an upset home win have produced a remarkable 18-13 SU record and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our team is playing at home, their record has been 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets. If the game has a total of 45 or fewer points, our team regardless of home or away situation have gone 14-11 SU and 21-3-1 ATS for 88% winning bets. Betting on home teams using the money line that are on a 3 or more-game Under streak, is scoring between 17.5 and 23 points per game and facing a foe that is allowing 17.5 to 23 PPG from Week 9 on has earned a highly profitable 32-13 SU and 31-13-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers v. Packers UNDER 44 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
Chargers vs Packers Green Bay head coach LeFleur is 23-12 Under when coming off a road game and 26-15-1 Under when facing a below average pass defense that is allowing 64% or more completions on the season. Teams coming off a game in which they made two or more fourth down conversions and were 100% on all fourth down situations have seen the Under go 42-18-2 for 70% winning bets since 2001. This system has been at .500 or better since 2012 posting an impressive 28-10-1 Under for 74% winning bets. Since Justin Herbert’s first start for the Chargers, the franchise has suffered their 13th loss by three or fewer points. The Bengals lead the NFL since 2020 with 14 losses by a field goal or less. The Chargers defense will play better against the Packers offense that ranks 21st in the league scoring an average of 19.9 PPG. The Chargers rank third allowing just 34% 3rd down conversions. From the predictive model, we learn that the Chargers are 11-5 Under for 69% winners in games in which they allowed 35% or lower third down conversions over the past three season. Vikings vs Broncos Betting on losing record teams from Week 9 on out that are facing a foe that has won 50 to 60% of their games and coming off an upset home win have produced a remarkable 18-13 SU record and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our team is playing at home, their record has been 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets. If the game has a total of 45 or fewer points, our team regardless of home or away situation have gone 14-11 SU and 21-3-1 ATS for 88% winning bets. Cardinals vs Texans The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are: ·     Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points ·     Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season. ·     Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season. ·     That foe is coming off an upset win. ·     That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season. If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. Bears vs Lions Consider betting 75% on the Bears preflop and then look for the Lions to score the first TD of the game and then bet the Live line with the remaining 25% amount. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that has gained at least 400 total yards in each of their last two games and are outgaining their foes by at least 50 yards per game on the season has earned an outstanding 88-44 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs in the second half of the season, from Week 9 on, our team’s record is 42-26-2 ATS for 62% winning bets and if favored between 3.5 and 6.5 points have earned a solid 24-11-1 ASTS mark for 69% winning bets. Chicago has the second-best rush defense in the NFL allowing 76 RYPG and have held their last seven foes to less than 100 RY. Five of the last six opponents have been held to less than 50 RY and only the Saints gained more (87) over this span. The Lions will struggle to run the ball period. What is more impressive is that the Bears average 9.4 blitzes per game, which is below the league average of 10.25 blitzes per game. So, the Bears safeties can focus on bracketing receivers and especially tight ends. The Lions have a very good TE in Sam LaPorta, who is second on the team with 47 receptions on 64 targets and gaining 474 yards. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (65 catches) and LaPorta account for 46% of the team’s total completions and also account for 151 of the team’s 307 targets of 49%. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed fewer than 1200 rushing yards in each of their previous three games has earned a 27-6 ATS record for 82% winning bets since 2018. If our team averages fewer than 10 blitzes per game, these road warriors soar to a remarkable 17-2 ATS  record for 90% winning bets. |
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11-19-23 | Bears +8.5 v. Lions | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
Cardinals vs Texans The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are: ·     Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points ·     Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season. ·     Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season. ·     That foe is coming off an upset win. ·     That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season. If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
Cardinals vs Texans The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are: ·     Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points ·     Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season. ·     Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season. ·     That foe is coming off an upset win. ·     That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season. If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs Baltimore First, this is not a bet on the OVER because the Under in proime time games has hit at historical extreme win percentages. Since Week 2 action when the Over went 13-3 for 81% winning bets, the Under had not gone less than 50% in any week until last week when the Over went 8-5 for 62% winning tickets. However, in prime time games, the Under continued its meteoric win percentage going 3-0 Under marking the third consecutive week that all three prime games played Under their respective totals. For the season, the Under is 25-7 for 78% winning bets in prime time spots, which is the highest win percentage since the 2012 season when the Under went 28-14 for 67% in these prime time games. Betting OVER the total in a game where one of the teams is coming off a three or fewer point loss to a divisional rival and with the game taking place in the second half of the season has earned an outstanding 31-8-1 record for 80% winning tickets over the past five seasons. If the current game is against divisional foes, then the Over record has been 13-3 for 81% winning bets over the past five seasons. Even if the loss was by 7 or fewer points and this is another divisional matchup, the Over has gone 23-9 for 72% winning bets. Live in-Game betting Strategy: I suggest considering to make a preflop bet of 75% of your normal bet size and then look to add 25% more at 42.5 points during the first half of action. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are struggling on defense allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 75-36-3 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our road dog is in a matchup against a conference foe, their record soars to 57-21-1 ATS for 73% winners and if we drill further and include only games with a total of less than 50 points these dogs are a remarkable 43-13-1 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015. Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe that has not forced a turnover in two consecutive games has earned a robust 21-21 SU record and 33-9 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from Week 8 on out these dogs have garnered a wealth-building 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winning bets. Â |
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11-12-23 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 38.5 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Dallas Cowboys I also like betting the Over Giant and Cowboys team totals for no more than 2-units each. If elect to do those two bets, then reduce the 10-UNIT Game total to a 7-Unit bet.  Another option is to bet 70% of your bet size preflop on the Over, and then look for a slower than expected start and add the remaining 30% betting amount at 33.5 points. Let’s get right to it. Betting on the Over in a game with a total of 39.5 or fewer points in the second meeting of a same-season divisional matchup, the line is double-digits has earned a 14-8-1 record for 64% winning bets. The Cowboys rank third in the NFL scoring an average of 27.5 PPG for the season and 37 PPG in home games. The Giants rank dead last averaging just 11.22 PPG but have averaged 14.8 PPG in their road games. Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys have averaged 32.8 PPG at home ranking best in the NFL by more than 3-points. Betting Over with a game total between 35.5 and 42 points, with a home team that is averaging an excellent 6.7 to 7.25 yards per pass, gained at least 7 yards per pass attempt in their previous game and facing a struggling passing team averaging 5.3 or fewer yards per pass attempt has seen the Over go 26-12 for 68% winning bets since 1994 and is 6-0 Over the past 10 seasons. Betting the Over with a game total between 35.5 and 42 points with one of the teams getting outscored by four or more PPG and is coming off five consecutive Under results has earned a 31-18-2 record for 63.3% winning bets since 1994 and 18-7-1 Over if that team is on a 6-game Under streak. If on a 7-game Under streak, which the Giants are currently on the Over is 5-1. McCarthy is on an 8-1 Over streak in home games when facing a divisional foe. From the predictive playbook, the Cowboys are 9-2 Over for 82% when averaging at least 7 YPPA over their past five seasons. 85% probability that the Cowboys average at least 7 YPPA. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders +6 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks Betting on road teams in a conference matchup that are facing home favorites of not more than 6-points that are coming off a humiliating loss by 28 or more points and with a total of 46 or fewer points has earned a highly profitable 38-19-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The best of all is the fact that these wounded teams have gone 0-12 ATS and 2-10 SU over the past 10 seasons. A rare situation, but one that has significant analytical meaning (p-Value and others) |
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11-12-23 | Falcons v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons Betting on the Under from Week 9 on out with s home team that is coming off a terrible loss by 21 or more points and a total of 44 or fewer points has earned a solid 38-19-1 record for 67% winning tickets. If that horrid loss was on the road, the Under record improves to 32-14-1 for 70% winning bets. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting the Under in a game priced between the 3’s, with one of the teams having lost to the spread in three straight games and facing a foe that has won their last two games ATS has gone 30-17 for 64% winning tickets since 2015. If one of the teams has lost 3 straight ATS and the foe has won three straight the Under has gone 14-8 for 64% winners. Home teams that are coming off the BYE and facing a foe that is also coming off their BYE has seen the Under go 70-57 for 55%. If the total is between 42 and 49 points, the Under has gone 25-17 for 60% winners. The clincher is the fact that in a game that features two winning record teams both coming off the BYE week, the Under is a stellar 22-9 for 71% winning bets. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears Betting on any team that is facing a foe that has won 25% or fewer of their games, is coming off two consecutive road losses, and with the game taking place from Week 5 on out to the end of the season has earned a highly profitable 51-33-6 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2010. If our team is the underdog in this matchup, their record soars to 12-12 SU and 16-6-2 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. If the total has been less than 40 points, our team has gone an impressive 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets since 2010. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 82-37-4 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our game has a total of 42.5 or fewer points, our road dogs have gone a near-perfect 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2015 and is 8-0 ATS since 2016.
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Chargers vs Jets 5-Unit Best Bet on the Under | No Parlay – not worth the added risk. It is a fact that the 10-UNIT MAX Bets have done very well in all sports for more than four years of betting opportunities hitting 68.8% winning tickets. Do not make the mistake that these plays anything more than that you can also look at them as the fact they lost 31% of the time. No one including me, knows if this play is going to win or lose, but over the course of a season or calendar year it is likely that we will generate profits by betting each one as they arise in a disciplined manner. With that said, I am offering a special subscription for just $300 to get the remaining 8-weeks of the calendar year all access to every NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL 10-Unit best bet, which is more than 50% of what you would pay.  I like betting Under in game during the first half of action at 42.5 or more points. So, consider betting 3.5 units preflop and then took to add 1.5 units at 42.5 points. Also, consider betting 7-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 3-units at pick-em during the first half of action. Last Sunday, the Jets and Giants played one of the ineptest games since at least 2000. The Giants managed to pass for negative yardage, which marks only the 7th time that any NFL team passed for negative yardage in a game since 1998. The last time any NFL passed for -9 or fewer yards was the Browns, who lost 48-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars December 3, 2000. So, home teams coming off a game in which they had 10 or more points, their previous opponent had 10 or more punts and with the current game total between 31 and 41 points has seen the Under go 13-4-1 for 77% winning bets. There have been 85 games among the 8,754 games played or 1.0% where the teams combined for more punts than points scored since 1989. Teams that won a game in which there were more punts than points scored by both teams and now playing at home have gone 24-10-2 Under the total for 71% winning bets since 1989. Justin Herbert looked at his best since suffering the grotesque injury to his fingers on his non-throwing hand. Granted the Bears were without their two starting safeties, but still Herbert was very accurate with all his passes. Jets defense has been great this season, but they have not been able to get off the field allowing 40% third down conversions. The Chargers are excellent in third down situations converting 41% of them on the season. The jets also are getting a sack on 6.94% of the plays ranking just 20th in the league. The Chargers OL is expected to protect Herbert well knowing the rank 7th in the league allowing a sack on just 5.6% of their passes. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers do get pressure on the QB more time than not and rank 12th with 7.90 sack percentage. The Jets OL has not been good in large part to injuries and allow a sack on close to 10% of their plays ranking 27th in the league. Chargers are 7-0 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive Under results in games played over the past three seasons. From the predictive model, there is a high probability that the Chargers will hold the Jets to fewer than 21 points and force at least two turnovers. The Chargers are 21-5 SU and 19-6-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when they allowed 21 or fewer points and 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have allowed 21 or fewer points and forced two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 1-20 SU and 2-18-1 ATS for just 10% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points and committing two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 7-41 SU and 10-37-1 ATS for 21% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points in games played over the past 5 seasons. |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys +3 v. Eagles | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Betting on winning record road teams from Week 8 on out that are facing a host that coming off a divisional road win and has won 75% or more of their games on the season has earned an outstanding 30-12 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets since 2010. Betting on road teams using the money line that is coming off a home win by 21 or more points from Week 6 on out has earned a highly profitable 40-22 ATS record over the past five seasons. If our team is priced as a dog, they have gone on to a highly profitable 15-12 SU and 19-8 ATS record good for 70.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The clincher is if our road warrior is facing a divisional foe, they have gone on to a 7-3 SU record and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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11-05-23 | Rams v. Packers -3 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is averaging 5.5 or more yards per play and was outgained by 100 or more yards in their previous game has gone to earn a 93-21 SU record and a 69-42-3 ATS mark good for 62% winners since 2010. If our home team is on a three or more-game losing streak, the record improves to 25-11 SU and 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2010. The clincher is the fact that these home teams that have the foe on the second or more road game and that opponent having lost their last game, which was also on the road are a perfect 7-0 ATS. |
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11-05-23 | Bears +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints 1:00 PM EST, This is a highly contrarian bet that may make no sense at all, but let’s get into the numbers why the Bears are a terrific betting opportunity. Betting on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points and that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 14-17 SU record and a jaw-dropping 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018. If a road dog of 7 or more points their record has been 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2018. Before the NFL season began, the Circa puts out lines and totals for every game of the NFL season. This game opened with the Bears a 2.5-point dog and now has shot up 7 points to a current 9.5-point price. When the line change has moved 7 or more points from the opening, and the game is taking place from Week 8 on out, the ATS record of betting on these unwanted teams is a solid 65% ATS. Betting on dogs that are facing a team that has gained 375 or more total yards in each of their last three games and are outgaining their foes by a 50 or more YPG on the season has gone 27-9-2 ATS for 75% over the past five seasons. |
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11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 37 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA 8-Unit Best Bet on the OVER, currently at 37 points. I like betting this one with 5-Units on the OVER preflop, then 1.5-units each at 33.5 and 31.5 points if the pace of the game is quite slow over the first half of action. The worst thing that happens is that we do get those price levels, but that also implies that the OVER preflop bet is more than likely winning and looking good. Betting on any team with a total between 35.5 and 42 points, with one of the teams (Steelers) coming off four or more consecutive Under results, and is getting outscored by 4.5 or more points per game on the season has earned a solid 63-34 record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. If that team is playing at home, the Over has gone a highly profitable 38-13 for 74.5% winning bets. Here is a subset of that system that has gone 13-1 Over for 93% winning bets. Bet the over in a game where the home team is on a five or more game Under streak, has been outscored by 4 or more PPG and with a game total between 35.5 and 40 points. |
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10-29-23 | Bears +9.5 v. Chargers | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs LA Chargers 8:20 PM 10-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the nine points and consider adding a sprinkle on the money line during the first half if the spread gets to 11 or more points. Â Betting road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that held each of their last three foes to less than 100 rushing yards have gone 26-5 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2018. If they are dogs priced between 6.5 and 10 points has produced an even better 11-2 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets since 2018. Betting against home favorites between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off a road loss and in a matchup of teams that have lost 60% or more of their games on the season has earned a solid 46-25 ATS mark for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If both teams have lost between 60 and 75% of their game son the season, these dogs soar to a highly profitable 23-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and up to and including 10 points that are allowing a pass completion percentage of 60% and higher and coming off a solid defensive game in which they allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass have earned an outstanding 49-27-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If not a conference matchup, these dogs have gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets. Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss to a divisional foe; 13-28 ATS in home games following a terrible game in which their defense allowed 300 or more passing yards. From the predictive models we are looking for the Bears to win the turnover battle and gain at least 135 rushing yards in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections has led them to an outstanding 14-4 SU and 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets. |
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10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Seahawks vs Browns 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Seahawks minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite  Betting on a home favorite in a non-conference matchup that is coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 39-15-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 2009. |
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10-29-23 | Texans -3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers 1:00 PM, Week 8 So, the Texans find themselves at 3-3 for the season and for the first time in many seasons have realistic expectations to make the postseason. However, the Jaguars lead the AFC South Division at 5-2 and the Texans must keep pace and stay ahead of both Colts abnd Titans, who are both at 3-4 in the division race. The Texans QB, CJ Stroud, I shaving a solid season completing 127 of 213 passes for 1660 yards, nine TDs and just one interception. Overall, he has attained a 57.1 QBR for the season. In road games he has done much better completing 62% of his 109 passes for 771 yards, three TDs and one interception. The Texans are coming off the BYE and have had two weeks to focus and prepare for this pivotal game. Moreover, road favorites coming off a BYE week and playing a winless team are 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU. So, I like betting 80% of the 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to get the remaining 20% amount bet if the Panthers score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. If neither occurs, but the halftime line for 20% as long as it is not above a 6.5-point favorite. Â The Colts have seen 26 lead changes in their games this season, which is tops in the NFL. The Panthers have experienced 14 lead changes, so the probability that the Texans may trail at some point during the first half is quite high. Â Â |
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10-29-23 | Jets -3 v. Giants | Top | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
New York Jets vs NY Giants 1:00 PM MetLife Stadium 8-Unit Best Bet on the Over the total currently priced at 35 points. Betting on the Over in a game lined between 35 and 42 points with one of the team sin the matchup (Giants) getting outscored by 4 or more PPG and coming off four or more Under results has gone 87-42-2 Over for 62% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Â |
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10-29-23 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total of 40.5 points Betting the Over in a game with a total between 37.5 and 42 points in which one of the teams is getting outscored by 4 or more points per game and is on a 4 or more Under streak has gone 38-21 for 64.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If that team (Pittsburgh) is playing at home, then the Over has gone 25-10 for 71.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. |
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10-29-23 | Eagles v. Commanders UNDER 43 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Washington 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total of 43.5 points Philadelphia goes for it on fourth down and short yardage a lot and last week they Team that are coming off a game in which they covered 3 or more fourth down attempts and now on the road have seen the Under go 42-17-2 for 71% winning bets since 2001.  |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Green Bay 1:00 PM 8-Unit best bet on the Packers plus the 1.5 points or if it is less than that consider the money line.  Betting on teams that have covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in their last two games and with the team (Green Bay) being priced between the 3’s has gone 30-12-3 for 71.4% winning bets since 2015. If in a divisional matchup, our teams have gone 14-3-3 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-26-23 | Bucs +10 v. Bills | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo 8-Unit best Bet on the Bucs plus the 9.5 points Betting on road underdogs facing a non-conference foe coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a solid 87-66-7 ATS record goods for 57% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and an 18-10-1 ATS mark for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. If a matchup of winning record teams, the road team has gone 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. A sprinkle on the money line is worth it as I do see the Bucs being vastly undervalued in this matchup. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Monday Night Football 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 43.5 points I prefer betting this game with a 5.5-unit amount preflop and then look for a faster than expected start to the game and add 1.5 units at 47.5 points and then the final unit at 49.5 points during the first half of action. San Francisco went on the road with a perfect record to take on the Cleveland Browns and they lost as a favorite. We were on the Browns as many of you know and sprinkled the money line as well. Many times, the first loss of a season by a stellar elite team regroups with a focus on the defensive end, which is the area of the game that gave the dog the chance at the outright upset win. 49ers have the best defense3 in the NFL, and at least in the NFC. The Jets defense held the Eagles offense to just 14 points in their upset win and are the only other team possibly better than the 49ers defensive unit. The 49ers defense ranks second allowing in the NFL allowing 14.5 PPG, third allowing 278 yards per game, second with a 0.235 points allowed per play ratio. 3rd allowing 4.5 YPPL. And second allowing 5.1 yards per pass despite ranking 31st with the second highest opponent pass play percentage. Offensive schemes going up against the 49ers defense focus on the pass game to have any chance at getting the upset win. Teams are averaging the second-lowest average of rushes (20.2 per game) in the league. The Vikings throw the ball the highest amount in the NFL at 69% of all plays run. The 49ers great defense is not because of an overly aggressive scheme. In fact, they rank 19th in the league blitzing on 14% of their defensive plays. The top blitz team in the league is the Vikings with 132 blitzes or 33% of their total defensive plays. The 49ers lead the league with a total of 27 quarterback hits and second to the Eagles (75) with 69 quarterback pressures. Remember the 49ers have played on fewer game than the Eagles. So, the 49ers front four can generate enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks without having to blitz and play a wide array of coverage schemes to create chaos and opponent turnovers. Betting the Under in the MNF game with one of the teams coming off an upset loss has earned an outstanding 20-2-1 UNDER for 91% winning bets over the past five seasons. If they are a road favorite in the current MNF game, the Under has gone 10-2 for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +6 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Chargers vs Chiefs 4:25 EST Globe Life Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 8-Unit best bet on the Chiefs Betting on road teams that are facing a team that is outgaining their foes by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt and coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt have gone 72-40-2 ATS for 64% winners last five seasons. If in a divisional matchup, 22-7-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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10-22-23 | Steelers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs LA Rams 4:05 PM EST, FOX SoFi Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Rams minus the 3-points Bet on any team that is facing a winning record foe that is coming off an upset home win to a divisional rival 82-48 SU (63%) | 84-39-7 ATS (68%) since 1989 If the foe pressed the QB on |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Arizona vs Seattle 4:05 PM EST FOX 8-UNIT best bet on the Cardinals plus the 8 points and sprinkle on the money line Betting against home favorites coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a highly profitable 66-33-3 for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team, the Cardinals, are coming off a SU and ATS loss, they soar to a 27-11-2 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. This is obviously a highly contrarian bet. Aside from the sentiment Python apps I run on Twitter to access the betting community’s appetite for specific teams, note that 60% of the remain 1785 Circa Eliminator entries are on Seattle. If our team is also averaging a mediocre 15 or higher yards per point ratio on offense, betting on them has produced a 50-22-3 ATS record for 70% winners over the past five seasons. |
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10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants OVER 37 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Washington Commanders vs NY Giants 1:00 PM EST Betting on the OVER with a total between 35.5 and 40 points with the home team being outscored by 5 or more points and is on a four or more game UNDER streak has seen the Over go 34-12 for 75% winning bets since 1989. If the total is between 35.5 and 40 points, the Over has gone 24-2 for 92% winning bets. |
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10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs NE Patriots Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA 1:00 EST 8-Unit Best Bet OVER New England opened at 7.5 points rose to as high as 9 points before trading back down to 7.5 points and with 7 likely to be the number ahead of kickoff. The total has slid from an opening of 46 for this game before the season starts down to 40 and with some 39.5 numbers showing up. The Under has amassed a 53-37-1 Under record for 59% winners this season and 11-2-1 Under last week. So, for the first time in years, the public is betting this trend as if it will continue on for the remainder of the season. As a result, we are getting a cheap price for this game, especially given that the Bills are in position for a bounce back offensively against the Patriots. The implied game result based on the current market pricing is a 24-16 Bills win. The Patriots team total warrants a sprinkle or not more than 2 units betting Over 16.5 points and getting +105 juice at DraftKings. I don’t like the Over Buffalo team total as the Patriots might score 20 or more points, so as shocking as it might be, I think this game could end up quite close. There is simply a higher probability that the Patriots exceed their team total than it is for the Bills to exceed theirs. Betting on the Over with a total between 35.5 and 42 points that is coming off four consecutive Unders and is a team getting outscored by four or more PPG on the season has earned a 62-36 record for 63% winners since 1989 and 11-5 OVER for 69% since 2019. Now, if the team referenced is playing at home, which the Patriots are has produced a 37-13 Over record good for 74% winning bets. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 40 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs. New Orleans The market is overwhelmingly betting the Under all week and pushing it lower. 77% of the tickets bet this week are on the Under. Saints are 22-7-1 Over in home games and taking on a foe that is averaging 45 or fewer penalty yards per game. JAX is 51-32 Over after having won four or five of their last six games; 31-15 ATS off a home win to a divisional rival. JAX head coach Pederson is 17-6 Over when priced as a 7 or fewer road underdog. Since 1991, there have been just four teams to start out their seasons with 6 consecutive Under results. They all went 4-0 SUATS and 4-0 OVER. Teams that played six consecutive games Under the posted total and playing in weeks 7 through 10 have seen the Over go 24-10 for 71% winners. If the total is less than 43 points, the Over has gone 21-8 for 72.4% winning bets. Also, the Jaguars have really gotten it together over the past several weeks and without anyone noticing. They have produced a 11.8 yards per point ratio on offense for their last three games, which is third best in the league and a 21.9 YPPT ratio defensively over their last three games, which ranks 2nd in the league. Last, the Over price reflects the uncertainty or likelihood that Trevor Lawrence will not play tonight for the Jaguars. However, I am hearing that there is a much higher probability he will be under center tonight. Â Thursday Night Football 8-UNIT Best Bet Total |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +1.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
MNF: Dallas vs LA Chargers SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers +1.5 points Consider betting 6-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if Dallas scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead or retakes the lead by 4 or more points during the first half of action. Betting on teams using the money line following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers and now taking on a foe that committed four or more turnovers in their previous game has earned a 36-12 record for 75% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons. If the game has a total of 50 or more points, they have gone on to a near-perfect 6-1 SUATS mark for 86% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Chargers are a rock-solid 62-8 SU (89%) and 58-12 ATS (83%) winning bets in home games in which they scored 23 or more points and forced two or more turnovers. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 41 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders 4:05 PM EST, Week 6 10-Unit best bet OVER the posted total The Patriots are certainly struggling right now, especially on offense where they have scored a total of three points over their last two games and got shutout in their last game. The Patriots have seen their last four games play under the total and by a combined 19 points and in large part because of their anemic pathetic offensive performances. On defense they have allowed the opponents team total to go Over by a combined 22 points over their last four games and by 29 points over their last two games. The Patriots offense has played Under their team total by an incredibly poor 44 points. Teams that have played under their team total by 40 or more points and are on the road have gone 22-27 SU and 33-16 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Teams that have scored 3 or fewer points in their last two games have seen the Over go 10-3 for 77% winners and teams that have scored 6 or fewer points over their last two games have gone 29-12 Over for 71% winning bets. Betting the Over with road teams in a game with a posted total of 37.5 to 42.5 points that are averaging an anemic 14 or fewer points per game and coming off two consecutive double-digit losses has seen the Over go 35-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1990 and 6-1 Over spanning the past five seasons. |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL 1:00 EST, Week 6 8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points, currently priced at +14.5 points. Well, periodically, the numbers do point solidly to a dog, or perhaps better stated using the noun mutt, or a dog with a serious case of fleas, and this is certainly one of those opportunities. Carolina is winless at 0-5 and the Dolphins are 4-1 overall and 2-0 at home and considered by many to be the team to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC. Betting on Dogs, with or without fleas, that are facing a non-divisional foe that has gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games and is also averaging at least 6 yards per play for the season have gone an amazing 11-15 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.  Several months ago, when the Circa and a few others released their full season betting lines, the Dolphins were priced as a 7-point home favorite. The market has moved the price to a whopping 14.5 points an increase of 7.5 points. I have studied and participated in the Circa and WestGate and numerous other contests and when the line moves 6 or more points from those opening preseason lines presents a sold contrarian betting opportunity. The market and betting communities over react and price the surging juggernauts higher than warranted and discount the talents of struggling winless teams too much– not always of course. Winless teams on the road in weeks 4 through 7 of the regular season are 32-13-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the are priced as double-digit dogs has produced an 8-3 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.   |
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans +2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the 2.5 points  Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that are coming off a loss of three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points in their previous game have gone 30-10 SU and 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Home dogs in this role are 12-14 SU and 17-9 ASTS for 65% winners, and 17-8-1 Over the total for 68% winners. If priced as a four or fewer point dog, they soar to 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. Saints are 1-8 ATS when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards and 1-10 ATS after allowing three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game spanning the past three seasons. Regression.   |
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +10 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
49ers vs Cleveland Browns  1:00 PM EST, Week 6  8-Unit Best bet on the Browns plus the 10 or more points Watson is not starting, but the market has all of this priced into the current level of 10 points. The 49ers coming off a 32-point victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys and now will be facing a vastly underrated defensive unit that I believe can keep this game quite close no matter who is under center for the Browns offense. Bet on home underdogs that are facing a foe that has defeated their opponents by an average of 10 or more PPG and with that foe coming off a double-digit win have gone 40-45 SU, 60-24-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foes win was by 21 or more points, these dogs have gone 22-28 SU and 34-15-1 ATS for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foe is also averaging fewer than 1 turnovers per game have seen these dogs go 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 46.5 | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Denver vs KC Â 8:15 EST
 8-UNIT bet OVER the total, currently at 47 points Broncos are 19-5 Over when facing a team that averages 19 or fewer yards on kickoff returns; 45-20 Over following three or more consecutive Over results; Payton is 40-20-2 Over in road games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points for his career. From the predictive model, we learn that the OVER has gone 11-4-1 for 73% winners when the Chiefs have gained 400 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 16-4 Over for 80% winners when gaining at least 6 yards per play in games played over the past three seasons. NFL 8-UNIT BEST BET TOTAL |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Las Vegas  8:15 PM EST  8-UNIT BEST BET on Green Bay Packers +2.5 or more points. Coming off a dismal NFL Sunday, but it is a reminder that no one is going to produce profits every week of any NFL season. Even in weeks that we have gone 4-1 or 5-0 ATS the results remind us that this is a grind, and that the success of any season is not dependent on one single week. I know all of you are quite used to my nagging (for very good reasons) and that discipline is the key. So, do not attempt to use this game to win back the losses over the weekend and at the same time, do not ever bet the profits made over the weekend on a MNF game. Betting on underdogs that are facing a team that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and has a defense that averages one or fewer turnovers per game on the season has earned an outstanding 33-32-1 SU record and a highly profitable 46-16-4 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is playing in a non-conference game, they soar to a 12-6-1 record and 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is the clincher, if our dog is playing on the road has produced a 9-3-1 SU record and a near-perfect 11-1-1 ATS mark good for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that the Packers are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS when gaining 100 or more rushing yards and forcing two or more opponent turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers  4:25 EST  8-Unit best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points Let’s get right to the point of this play and reveal a betting algorithm that earned a highly profitable 29-8-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and has covered the spread by an average of The requirements are to bet on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their four previous games and facing a foe that has forced no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games. If our team is on the road the results improve to a remarkable 18-13 SU and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is gaining 1.75 or more yards per pass than their opponents and coming off two consecutive games in which they gained 6.75 or more yards per pass has earned a 29-26 SU record and 35-17-3 ATS mar good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Cowboys are 93-13 SU and 85-19-2 ASTS when gaining at least 125 rushing yards and forcing 2 or more turnovers and 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winners over the past five seasons. |
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10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos  4:05 PM EST  8-Unit Best Bet on the NY Jets plus the points Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s and with the host coming off two straight road tilts and with the game occurring between weeks 5 and 8 have gone 38-17 SU and 36-16-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, has covered the spread in just one of the previous three games, in a matchup of losing record teams, and with the host coming of two straight road games have gone 23-13 SU and 22-12-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Broncos are just 13-25-1 SU and 5-33-1 ATS when allowing 24 or more points and allowing 5.5 or more YPPL. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Eagles vs Rams  4:05 PM EST, 10/8
The Eagles offense has not been in sync for an entire game, yet they have scored points in every quarter of their 4-0 start, except the second quarter in Week 1 against the Patriots. Teams that have scored in 15 or 16 of the quarters played spanning their last four games, priced as a road favorite, and facing a non-divisional foe have gone 16-16 SU, 9-22-1 ATS for 29%, and a solid 20-12 Over record for 63% winning bets. |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -2 | Top | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons  1:00 PM EST  8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons -2.5 points The following betting algorithm has earned a 36-15 SU record (71%) and a 36-12-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has not covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in three consecutive games and priced between the 3’s.  Drilling further down into the database, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, these teams went 17-5 SU (77%), 16-4-2 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team scored first in the contest, they went on to a 10-0 SU and ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 9 PPG. |
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10-08-23 | Giants +13 v. Dolphins | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Miami Dolphins  1:00 PM EST  8-Unit Best Bet on the Giants plus the points I know I will hear many moans on this one as we are backing a team that finds ways to play poorly in critical situations and find ways to lose games. Remember, I am betting on situations and not the mascot, and not if the team looked great or horrid in their previous game. That also applies to the great recent play by the Dolphins, who are on the precipice of regression too. The following betting system underscores the regression, and that the Dolphins recent offensive prowess is unsustainable. The algorithm has gone 19-12 SU, but 5-24-2 ATS for 17%, and the Under has gone 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. The requirements are to bet on underdogs in a non-divisional frey that are facing a team that has averaged 450 or more yards of total offense over their last three games and has averaged 6 or more YPPL on the season. If the matchup is a non-conference one, these dogs have chewed mercilessly on these false favorites to the tune of 9-4 SU record and a near-perfect 10-1-2 ATS mark since 2017. The clincher, if we even needed one, is the fact that if our dog is priced at 4 or more points, they have gone on to a 5-3 SU record and a perfect 7-0-1 ATS record.  |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders 8:15 PM EST, 10/5 Prime Telecast Certainly not a ‘sexy matchup’, but the analytics clearly point to a contrarian bet on the Bears plus the 5.5 points. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing an average of 28 or more points per game on the season have gone 47-89 SU (65.6%), 88-46-3 ATS (65.7%) over the past 10 seasons of action. If our road warrior underdog is facing a host coming off a home loss, they soar to 6-10 SU, and 12-4 ATS for 75% winners over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams after allowing 6.75 or more YPPA in four consecutive games and now facing a foe that is coming off a game in which they allowed 8 or more YPPA has yielded a 35-31-1 SU record and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets since 1989. If in a non-divisional matchup, these dogs soar to 22-22-1 SU and 32-13 ATS for 71.1% winning bets over the past 34 seasons and has had just 3 seasons losing money. Here is a second betting algorithm that ash done quite well earning a 26-19 SU record and 29-14-2 ATS mark good for 67.4% winning bets over the past 34 seasons. The requirements are to bet on dogs of six or fewer points that are coming off a loss in which the game played Over the total and with that dog having more penalties then incomplete passes. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks vs NY Giants MetLife Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Giants getting the 2-points The Giants remained on the west coast after their historic come from behind win over the Arizona Cardinals to prepare for one of the best teams in the NFL, the 49ers, and on a short week. They lost that game, but were quite competitive during the first half, and are not fully rested for this game tonight at home. Betting on teams that has not covered the spread in their last three games and taking on a foe that has covered their last three games and with the price between a 3-point favorite and underdog has produced a 30-13 SU record and a 30-10-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 8 years (since start of the 2015 season). Betting on Underdogs that are struggling to gain yards in the passing game averaging 5.5 or fewer YPPA, is coming of a game where their defense allowed 8 or more YPPA, and now facing a foe that struggles to stop the pass allowing an average of 7.25 or more YPPA has produced a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets. If our team is a home dog, they have soared to a money-making 18-7 ASTS for 72% winning bets. The Giants QB, Daniel Jones is an inconsistent one and many others would say he is downright terrible, but this is a matchup ladies and gentlemen that he has the potential to shine brightly. This is a must-win game for the Giants to say within distance of the undefeated Eagles and one-loss Cowboys in the NFC East division. They lost their first two prime time games by a combined score of 70-12 and failed to cover the spread by a combined 44 points. So, they are rested, fully prepared, and I do expect them to put out their best effort of the season. The predictive model tells us that the Giants when playing at home and scoring 23 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers then the foe has produced a 77-11 SU record (88%) and a 68-19-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets. |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Dolphins vs Bills 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under 53.5 points The total for this game is priced at 53.5 points. So, scoring volatility is expected to be high. My suggested strategy is to bet 5.5 units preflop and then if the game starts out fast on the scoreboard add 1.5 units at 56.5 points and then 1 unit at 58.5 points. Betting on teams with a total of 45 or more points and facing a foe that scored double digits in each quarter of their previous game has produced a 8-7 SU record, 10-5 ATS and 11-4 UNDER. The Dolphins scored 14 points in each of the first and third quarters and 21 points in the second and fourth quarters in last week’s historic 70-point offensive explosion. Betting on a road team facing a divisional foe and having seen the total play over by at least 24 points over their last three games has produced a 43-17-1 Under record for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our road team saw their last three games play Over by 27 or more points has produced a 39-14-1 Under record for 74% winners spanning the last 25 seasons. Last, if that last three game total played over by 38 or more points, the Under has gone a highly profitable 23-5-1 for 83% winners spanning the past 25 seasons. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Steelers vs Texans 8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the points Betting on underdogs of not more than 7.5 points that are facing a foe that won their last two games in the previous season, but missed the playoffs, and with the current game taking place in the first four weeks of the current season has produced a 13-5 ATS mark for 72% winning bets since 2018. |
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