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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-18-21||Auburn v. Penn State -5||Top||20-28||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
Auburn vs Penn State
7:30 PM EST, September 18, 2021
5% Top-Rated Best Bet on Penn State minus the points
ESPN College Game Day is on the Happy Valley Campus and Auburn will be playing in by far the largest stadium (111K) in program history. Making it an even greater home field advantage is the fact that this is a Penn State White Out game, which everyone of the 111K fans will be wearing white. There be an almost invisible sliver in the third deck of Auburn fans. My WagerTalk colleague Ralph Michaels makes PSU the greatest home field advantage giving them 6.5 points in Prime Time Night Games.
SEC teams installed as 7 or fewer-point points are a money-losing 9-18 ATS for 33% wins facing a Big Ten foe. The Lions are roaring and is a team that is only going to get better as the season goes on. James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he was hired by PSU and knows the SEC conference first-hand. While at Vanderbilt, he went 8-3-1 ATS in home games including a defeat of Auburn. The best fact of all is that Franklin despite all of the negative media attention on him and hi program last season is on a 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS run coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. He is also 40-16 ATS off a win and 14-3 ATS off a game scoring 37 or more points.
From the predictive side of things, my machine learning models show a very high probability that PSU will score 31 or more points and will gain 450 or more offensive yards. PSU in home games, scoring 28 or more yards and gaining 450 or more total yards is 25-4 ATS for 86.2% ATS wins.
|09-16-21||Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -19||Top||14-49||Win||100||4 h 28 m||Show|
Ohio University vs Louisiana Lafayette
Thursday, 9/16/2021 9:45 PM
4% Best Bet on LL Rajin Cajuns minus the points
Betting on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that is a team allowing 28 to 34 PPG and hosting a guest that is averaging 16 to 21 PPG has earned a 30-8 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.
|09-05-21||Notre Dame v. Florida State +7||Top||41-38||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
Notre Dame vs Florida State
7:30 PM EST, Sunday, September 5, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet Florida State plus the points
FSU head coach Mike Norvell has 10 returning starters on offense including the QB red shirt sophomore transfer Jordan Travis. He will have plenty of targets this season including graduate transfer Andrew Parchman, who spent the last two years in Kansas. He made 20 starts for Kansas tallying 1,028 receiving yards on 89 catches and 9 TDs. Look for him to make key catches in this game, especially on 2nd and 3rd downs to keep the chains moving.
Ironically, Guard Dillon Gibbons transferred from Notre Dame and you can bet this 6-5 321 lb lineman will want to to show what his former team could have had. Overall, the FSU L is much better than last year’s edition because they have played together in at least one seasons and have solid chemistry across the line too.
Betting on under dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first four weeks of the season that return at least 8 starters including the QB and had struggles on defense allowing 425 or more YPG in the previous season has earned a highly profitable 59-24-1 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 21-7-1 for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 using the money line, whose defense struggled last season allowing 5.8 or more yards-per-play and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning this season has earned an amazing 28-20 SU record, averaging a +210 money line bet and making the $100 bettor a $3,950 profit over the last 10 seasons. Over the last three seasons this angle has produced a 9-8 record, BUT has made $1500 for the $100 bettor.
Bet FSU plus the points as a 4-Unit Best Bet
|09-02-21||Boise State +5.5 v. Central Florida||Top||31-36||Win||100||38 h 7 m||Show|
Boise State vs UCF
Week 1 7:00 PM EST, Thursday, September 2 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on Boise State plus the points
On the gridiron, I like to bet these underdogs as a combination bet that consists of 80 to 90% of your normal bet size placed on the line and the remaining 10-20% bet using the money line. So, for this game and if you are $100 bettor for a 4-Unit bet, place $85.00 on the line and $15.00 using the money line. Remember though, this is a recommended strategy, and you always have the option to simply bet the game getting the points.
This is going to be a great game to watch that will have several scoring runs by both teams, who have first-year head coaches. UCF has former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn, who inherits a terrific offense that averaged 568 yards and 42 PPG. New head BSU head coach is Andy Avalos, who was the defensive coordinator for Oregon and has nine defensive returning starters on one of the best defenses in the Mountain West Conference.
Hank Bachmeier was named the starting QB last week and is a 3-year junior signal caller that is vastly underrated. He has been injured in past seasons preventing him from taking his game to those next levels. He has played in only 13-games over the past two seasons. In his first start of his college career he threw for 407 yards in a win against Florida State on August 31, 2019. He has had 6-games completing over 65% of his passes and three of those were over 70%. His favorite target, senior Khalil Shakir, has caught 131 balls for 1,761 yards, and 13 TDs. Bachmeier will have far more weapons this season in WR-X Stefan Cobbs, WR-H CT Thomas, and junior transfer Davis Koetter.
UCF is just 4-13 ATS in games played over the last three seasons with a total of 65 or more points. From the predictive models there is a very high probability that BSU will score 28 or more points. In past games in which they have scored 28 or more points, they are 10-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 70% ATS over the last 30 seasons spanning 210 games.
Bet Boise State as a 4-Unit Best Bet
|01-11-21||Ohio State +9 v. Alabama||Top||24-52||Loss||-107||8 h 53 m||Show|
Ohio State vs Alabama
8:00 PM EST, January 11, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes +8 points.
The current lines for this game price the Ohio State Buckeyes as 8-point underdogs with a total of 75.5 points. The action has seen greater number of tickets and money being bet on Alabama moving the line from its’ opening of 7-points. The UNDER has been the preferred bet and has lowered the total from its’ opening of 76.5 points
The line and total indicate and implied 41.75 - 33.75 Alabama win. The 28-point scoring level is an extremely important benchmark that defines many NCAAF teams ATS success or failure. Overall, teams playing on a neutral field and score 28 or more points have earned a 457-162 SU record for 74% wins and 421-187-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past ten seasons.
Ohio State has earned a 10-1 SU record and 7-4 ATS mark when scoring 28 or more points in a neutral field setting. Regardless of location, Ohio State has earned an incredible 99-2 SU mark and 59-40-2 ATS for 69% winning bets spanning the past ten seasons.
This Championship game implies that both teams will score 28 or more points and my machine learning tools support this in a big way. Ohio State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when playing in a neutral field setting and in game where both they and their opponent score 28 or more points. Alabama has been horrible money-losing bets when in games where they and their opponent both score 28 or more points with an 5-3 SU record and an imperfect 0-8 ATS record that has failed to cover the spread by an average of 10-points.
Betting on neutral field underdogs that are averaging a minimum of 4.75 YPC on the season and coming off three consecutive games rushing the ball for at least 225 yards in each game has earned a highly profitable 38-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets in games played over the past 15 seasons. Obviously, this to supports Ohio State.
Nick Saban is a great coach, but there are a few situations in which he has not done well. Since becoming the head coach of Alabama he is 11-22 ATS for 33% winning bets when facing a team that is averaging 235 or more RYPG, and 1-6 ATS for 14% when the game is played on a neutral field.
How to Bet This Game.
My recommendation for this 5% Best Bet is to take Ohio State using the spread for an 80% amount of your 5% Amount. Then place 20% pre-flop (before the game) using the juicy money line. I am going to add 10% amounts in-game if Ohio State is lined at +11.5, and +14.5 points. If the +14.5 its live bet is confirmed then, I will immediately add 10% amount on the money line.
Given the very high TOTAL, this game will have both teams ripping off 10 to 21 unanswered points. So, let the game volatility work with you and take advantage of these contrarian opportunities. Good Luck and Thank you for all the loyal support.
|01-02-21||North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7||Top||27-41||Win||100||36 h 38 m||Show|
North Carolina vs Texas A&M
5% Best Bet on Texas A&M -7
Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
This is a game that I believe Texas A&M will win by at least 11 points. Do NOT make anything of the fact that Texas A&M thinks they should have been the 4th seed in the CFO and that they are going to go out in this game to prove a point. Jimbo Fisher has coached mamny games and has been part of Florida State’s National Championship.
So, I did extemsive research factoring all of the opt-out players and UNC has lost the most starting talent by a landslide and that adds even more confidence to the Machine Learning model predictions.
Betting on any team in a game involving two excellent rushing teams gaining at least 4.75 YPRA and with one of the teams coming off a game allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game has earned a 35-9 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.
The machine learning tools I use and have developed predict a near-90% probability that A&M will score 35 or more points. A&M is 121-64-6 ATS when scoring 35 or more points in games played since 2000 and under head coach Jimbo Fisher, they are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS.
|12-31-20||Mississippi State +1 v. Tulsa||Top||28-26||Win||100||4 h 47 m||Show|
Armed Forces Bowl
4% Best Bet on Mississippi State +2.5 points.
Mike Leach took over the head coaching responsibilities this season at Miss State and won his first game against the defending national champion LSU Tigers. We learned quickly that LSU was nowhere close to being the same team last season and Miss State sputtered and lost 7 of their next 8 games, before ending the season on a high note with a win over Missouri. All season, Miss State struggled to run the ball enough for opposing defenses to respect. However, they gained a season-high 154 rushing yards in the win over Missouri.
Since 2000, he has been a head coach in every season except 2010 and 2011. This marks the 17th Bowl game in 18 years as a head coach at Texas Tech, Washington State, and now Miss State.
Betting on teams with a line within three points on either side of pick-em with a team that is coming off a game where they outgained that opponent b 125 or more total yards and are now facing a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned an impressive 114-61-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last ten seasons.
|12-30-20||Florida +7 v. Oklahoma||Top||20-55||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
Florida vs Oklahoma
AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX
8:00 PM EST, December 30, 2020
4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Florida Gators +7 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.
I would highly recommend placing 70% of your normal 4% bet size on Florida prior to the start of the game. This game promises to have team scoring streaks that we can then exploit to our advantage. Starting with Florida as a 4.5-point underdog right now, add 15% of your 4% bet size in-game with a line of +8 or higher, and then the last 15% amount on Florida at +11.5 points.
Florida is without their top-4 WR, who have opted out, but why then is the line not heading towards making Oklahoma a -11 or more-point favorite? It is simply because Florida has a stable of elite WR and no other team in the country recruits WR better than Florida has over the years.
Using the money, betting on neutral field teams that have beaten the spread by 21 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 26-21 straight-up record, but has made over $4,100 for the $100 bettor spanning the last 10 seasons of games.
Also, playing on playoff and bowl game underdogs that are getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them, but more than 60% of the money have earned an outstanding 107-40 record for 73% ATS winning bets since 2011.
|12-25-20||Marshall +6.5 v. Buffalo||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||4 h 46 m||Show|
Marshall vs Buffalo
Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
5% Best Bet on Marshall +5.5 points.
1% Parlay Sprinkle Marshall using the Money Line and the UNDER.
I’ll get right to the powerful and highly profitable betting system that supports the Marshall Thundering Herd. In a Bowl Game, bet against a favorite that lost their conference championship game by eight or more points. This situation has seen the false favorite post a miserable 13-18 SU record and a 9-22 ATS record for 29%, and the UNDER earning a solid 21-10 record good for 68% winning bets in bowl games played since 2005.
Drilling down through this dataset by querying only Bowl Games played in December produces a highly profitable 5-12 SU record, 1-16 ATS record for 6%, and the UNDER winning the cash on a 13-4 record for 77% winning bets since 2005.
The market has priced in the loss of Marshall’s star running back Brenden Know, who left the team. Marshall has many running backs that will be eager to step up to take advantage of the extra game time and include junior Sheldon Evans and sophomore Knowledge McDaniels. Freshman QB Wells is a running threat in his own right and completed 61% of his passes for 1,977 yards, 18 touchdowns, , 9 interceptions, and a 144 QBR.
This money line bettig system has earned a 23-19 record for 55% winning bets, making the $100 bettor, a sizable profit of $4,350 in games bet over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line and are coming off three games in which they were beaten by 21 or more points versus the spread. The average money line bet has been +273.
|12-19-20||Alabama v. Florida +17.5||Top||52-46||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
Alabama vs Florida
8:00 PM EST, December 19, 2020
5% Best Bet Florida +17 and yes, sprinkle some on the money line at a +650 price.
I will be playing this game as an 85% amount of a 5% bet using the spread and then 15% on the money line.
This betting system has earned a 23-18 SU record for 56% winning bets over the last ten seasons making a $100 bettor a profit of $5,705. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games.
From the machine learning tools, Florida is projected to gain 9 or more yards-per-pass-play and Alabama is 11-22 SU when they have allowed an opponent 9 or more YPPP. Under head coac Nick Saban, the Tide is 5-11 ATS and just 9-7 SU when allowing 8.5 or more YPPL.
Florida is 16-2 against the money line when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons; 26-4 against the money line when they gain 450 to 500 total yards in games played since 2000.
|12-19-20||Illinois v. Penn State -15||Top||21-56||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
Illinois vs Penn State
This betting system has earned a highly profitable 48-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a conference foe and coming off two consecutive wins and ATS covers as double-digit favorites.
From the machine learning model and tools, PSU is expected to score at least 28 points and they are 33-11-4 ATS under James Franklin when scoring 28 or more points. Illinois is just 15-53-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2011. PSU is also projected to gain over 500 yards. They are 16-3 ATS for 84% winning bets under James Fraklin.
|12-19-20||Air Force v. Army +2.5||Top||7-10||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
Air Force vs Army
4% Best Bet on Army and sprinkle soe on the money line. I like making these live dogs combination wagers using the line and the money line. I am wagerig 70% of my 4% bet amount plus the points and then 30% using the money line.
Here is one of the best money line bettig systems you will ever see and has earned a 24-5 SU record over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a non-conference foe, who is coming off two straight wins over conference foes.
Air Force is just 34-42 against the money line (-50.9 Units) when facing good rushing teams averaging a minimum of 4.75 rushing yards-per-carry.
I also like Army using the first-half money lie as they are projected to have the lead at the half. Army is 20-3 SU when gaining 250 or rushing yards in home games and have lead at the half.
|12-19-20||Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6||Top||27-21||Push||0||3 h 36 m||Show|
Oklahoma vs Iowa State
4% Best Bet on Iowa State +
I also like making this a combination wager consisting of 70% amount of a 4% amount using the line and a 30% of a 4% amount bet using the money line.
Iowa State is active in a very strong betting system that has earned a 46-17 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that s a good rushing team gaining 190 to 230 rushing yards after playing seven or more games, and after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game and now facing a team that is averaging 140 to 180 rushing yards-per-game.
The machine learning model and tools project that ISU will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and average a minimum of at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games where they met these standards, they have earned a 25-9-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 2011. Plus, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when installed as a dog.
|12-18-20||UAB +4.5 v. Marshall||Top||22-13||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
UAB vs Marshall
4% Best bet on the UAB Blazers
UAB has posted terrific re zone numbers scoring 23 TDs and 7 FGs on 32 red zone attempts. Only two times did they not score points in the red zone. They have played two games over the last six weeks, but they are led by Senior QB Tyler Johnston III, So, his experience is major advantage for the entire team.
UAB is 35-11 ATS after a two-gae road trip. UAB head coach is 32-18-1 ATS when playing a game on a turf field. Marshall HC Holliday is just 9-18 ATS as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and 1-8 ATS coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points in the first half.
Home teams, who suffered their first loss of the season after game number 6 has been played and are facing a team that lost to them in their previous matchup has earned a money-burning 26-47 ATS record good for 35% winning bets since 2008.
Betting on road underdogs after the first four weeks of the season, who are facing a host that was beaten by 28 or more points versus the spread over the last ten seasons has earned a 60-26-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. So, UAB is the road underdog and Marshall lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite to Rice in their last game.
Bet UAB as a 4% Best bet +4.5 points and sprinkle some on the money line.
|12-05-20||Miami-FL -14 v. Duke||Top||48-0||Win||100||12 h 9 m||Show|
Miami (Fla) vs Duke
3% ACC Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes
The summary projections from my machine learning toolshed indicate a high probability that the Hurricanes will win this game by 24 or more points.
The following college football betting system has earned a remarkable 76-35-2 ATS record for 69% winning plays since 2006 and requires us to bet on road teams play their second, third, or fourth consecutive road game and are favored by 14 or more points and facing an opponent hat has won 35% or less of their games on the season.
It all adds up to the Miami Hurricanes cruising to an easy win.
|12-05-20||Florida v. Tennessee +18||Top||31-19||Win||100||6 h 46 m||Show|
Tennessee vs Florida
From my days on Wall Street as an institutional trader, this is an example of arbitrage, which is the simultaneous buying and selling of homogenous securities. In the SEC is buying low with Tennessee and selling high with Florida and getting a spread that is just too many points.
Teams in the SEC, like Tennessee, who have lost five straight and failed to cover the spread in all five games are 5-0 ATS in SEC competition in games played over the last five seasons.
Now, here is a money line betting system that has feasted on getting on cheaply priced underdogs and has earned a 45-65 record for just 43% wins, BUT has averaged a +300 underdog bet and making the $100 bettor a profit of $7,450 in bets made over the last five seasons. The requirements are simple and are to bet against road favorites using the money line after game number 5 of the regular season and having won five consecutive games.
So, I know and understand, that this is a bold statement, but play this bet as a 5% using the line and then sprinkle just a little on the money line – just in case of the shocker of all shockers. I have had at least one underdog of 17 or more points win the game in each of the last 10 seasons. I obviously never know when they will occur, but playing a little on the money line with these double-digit cast to the curb dogs has provided a lot more cash.
|12-05-20||Texas A&M v. Auburn +5.5||Top||31-20||Loss||-105||4 h 18 m||Show|
Texas A&M vs. Auburn
4% Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers +6.5 points. I also like playing this bet by placing an 85% amount of a 4% bet using the line and then15% of a 4% amount using the money line. This strategy when used on underdogs that I believe have a solid opportunity to win the game adds a significant amount of additional profits over the course of the season.
Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher was a great defensive coordinator for Florida State. He has his A&M team allowing just 3.0 yards-per-rush, ranking second in the SEC behind Georgia, who is allowing a scant 2.4 YPR on the season. In home games, Auburn is a stellar 27-12-1 ATS when facing strong rush defesnes allowing 120 or fewer yards-per-game in games played since 2006.
Auburn is 16-4-1 ATS after having covered the spread in three of their last four games since 2006; under head coach Gus Malzahn, they are 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets (7-2 ATS when the game is at home).
The bad news of losing 42-13 to No. 1 Alabama last week is good news this week as it puts them into a rock-solid betting system that has earned a highly profitable 33-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to be on underdogs from the eighth game on, between 3.5 and 9.5 points, and coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points in the first half, and is averaging between 21 and 28 PPG and facing an elite offense scoring between 28 and 34 PPG on the season.
From the machine learning toolshed Auburn is projected to score at least 28 points and when they have accomplished this in past games, they are 15-2 ATS over the last three seasons and 118-47 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plus, a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog and scoring 28 or more points under head coach Malzahn.
|12-05-20||Penn State -11.5 v. Rutgers||Top||23-7||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
Penn State vs Rutgers
Noon ET, December 5, 2020
4% Best Bet on Penn State -11,-11.5 points. Given that my machine learning model project that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points, simply bet the game with the line that is available for you.
Here is a consistent money-making betting system that has earned a highly profitable 186-111-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2011. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG on the season and facing an opponent that has played two consecutive games in which they and their opponents scored 60 or more points. A subset including double digit road favorites and conference matchups produces a 71-39-1 ATS record good fo 65% winning bets since 2012.
PSU Head Coach James Franklin is a 12-3 ATS off a road win; 27-8-1 SATS off a win against a conference foe; 11-3 off a road win to a conference foe. PSU is an outstanding 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets installed as a double-digit road favorite and facing a host, who has a defense allowing 30 or more PPG on the season.
|11-28-20||Ball State +10 v. Toledo||Top||27-24||Win||100||4 h 53 m||Show|
Ball State Vs. Toledo
12:00 PM EST, November 28, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Ball State Cardinals plus the points. Consider an additional wager of no more than a 1% amount using the money line
Let’s start with a betting system that has earned a solid 35-9-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent that is allowing right or fewer points in the first half and are coming off two consecutive games in which they scored 20 or more points in the first half.
Toledo has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but Ball State has won the money sporting a 7-4 ATS record. Ball State Senior QB Drew Pitt led his team to 38-0 first half lead over Toledo last season enroute to a 52-14 beat-down. He completed 11 fo 16 passes for 65% and 206 passing yards for an amazing 213 quarter rate. His leadership is invaluable and he knows Toledo and their defensive schemes well. So, this is just too many points to give Ball State in this matchup.
Toledo head coach Candle is just 2-10 ATS when coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored in each one.
Toledo QB Eli Peters remains listed as questionable with a knee injury and even if he does start, he will not be even 80% effective.
Take the Ball State Cardinals plus the points as a 4% Best Bet Titan and sprinkle no more than 1% on the Money Line
|11-28-20||Kent State v. Buffalo -7||Top||41-70||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
Kent State vs. Buffalo
4% Best Bet on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points.
There are numerous coaching trends that support Buffalo in this matchup. Head Coach Leipold is 12-2-1 ATS in home games coming off one or more ‘OVER’ results; 18-3-1 ATS in home games facing MAC foes; 7-0 ATS when coming off a game in which the Bulls out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 125 rushing yards; 10-1 ATS in home games facing an opponent that completes a minimum of 58% of their passes.
From the machine learning model, Buffalo is projected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of of 6 yards-per-rush. Buffalo is 16-5 ATS over the last three seasons and 70-19-1 ATS the last ten seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS and 11-0 SU when they have scored 28 or more points and gained 6 or more YPR since 2011.
Take the Buffalo Bulls to the bank as a 4% Best Bet minus the points.
|11-27-20||Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6||Top||31-17||Loss||-110||5 h 58 m||Show|
Notre Dame vs North Carolina
The No.2 Notre Dame Irish will take to the road to face a white hot and No. 25 UNC Tarheels team in a monster showdown. UNC QB Sam Howell is coming off a school-record 550 passing yards in a come from behind 59-53 win over Wake Forest and is atop the ACC standings averaging 338 yards-per-game of total offense including 23 touchdowns.
Notre Dame will try to rotate defensive linemen and corners into the game, but UNC will play fast, especially when they have the matchup them want to exploit on the perimeter and the back-end of the Irish defense. The Irish start a true freshman at corner in Clarence Lewis and you can bet the Tarheels will look to exploit favorable matchups against him and not allow the Irish to have time to substitute for fatigued players.
The ground game of the Tarheels is a two-headed monster in Javonte Williams (109) and Michael Carter (101) both averaging more than 100 rushing yards-per-game. The Irish defense ranks best in the ACC allowing 85.1 RYPG, but that number is going to go up after this game. The solid ground attack is going to put immense pressure on the Irish secondary. The safeties in particular have to lineup closer to the line of scrimmage than normally required to support the run defense. When the safeties are playing run, then the vertical crossing routes are going to be in man converage for Howell to exploit time and time again.
Home underdogs coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 42 points in each game are a rock solid 71-34 ATS for 68% winning bets since 1980 and 16-8 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2017. If both teams are ranked and the home dog is ranked lower in the standings than the opponent (ND =2 and UNC=25), the home dog is a stellar 7-4 SU for 64% winning bets and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2006.
The machine learning model projects that UNC will average a minimum of 10 yards-per-pass play and rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards. In past games in which UNC met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 20-1 SU record and 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points in games played since 2000.
|11-21-20||Oklahoma State +7.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||13-41||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
5% Big-12 Game of the Month on the Oklahoma State Cowboys
I like Oklahoma State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.
The machine learning model projects that Oklahoma State will rush the ball a minimum of 40 times and gain at least 165 rushing yards. In past games in which Oklahoma State met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a 59-11 SU record and a highly-profitable 52-13-4 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2006 and 15-6-2 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.
This money line betting system has earned a solid money-making 32-12 SU record good for 72% winning bets spanning the last ten seasons and underscores my expectations that Oklahoma State can win the game. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line that is coming off a game gaining a minimum of 5.5 yards-per-rush attempt, is averaging at least 4 YPRA, and is now facing a team with an average run defense allowing between 3.7 and 4.2 YPRA on the season.
|11-21-20||UCLA +17 v. Oregon||Top||35-38||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
NCAAF Week 12
4% Best Bet UCLA Bruins plus the points over Oregon
My Machine Learning Models
Kelly is 14-2 ATS in road games and coming off a game in which his team had no more than single turnover.
Bet on conference road underdogs that are not ranked and facing a conference foe that is ranked and within the first five games of the season and are coming off a game in which they allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards. This set of parameters has earned a 21-11 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 2005.
|11-21-20||Appalachian State +5 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||23-34||Loss||-110||2 h 29 m||Show|
Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina
4% Best Bet on Appalachian State
The following betting system has eanred a highly-profitable 26-7-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet on a team that is facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games and in a matchup where both the team and the opponent have a win percentage of at least 80% on the season. In Week 7 of last year Appalachian State was in the same role and defeated Louisiana Lafayette 17-7 as a 1.5-point road underdog.
My machine learning models predict that App State will have at least a five minute edge in time of possession and will run a minimum of 65 plays in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned an outstanding 25-7-1 ATS record for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.2 points.
|11-14-20||Illinois +6.5 v. Rutgers||Top||23-20||Win||100||5 h 13 m||Show|
Illinois vs Rutgers
The money flows support this play on Illinois. Illinois bettig volume accounts for 68% of the moiney bet on just 28% of the tickets. This reflects a much greater betting amount per-bet placed on Illinois and reflects that the sophisticated professional likes backing Illinois.
This betting system supports Illinois and has eanred a solid 38-10-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requires are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are gettig outscored by 17 or more points-per-game and have allowed 31 or more points in three consecutive games.
|11-14-20||Army +3 v. Tulane||Top||12-38||Loss||-110||4 h 11 m||Show|
NCAAF Week 11
4% Best Bet on the Army Black Knights
Army is a young team, but playing at a high level and received the 27th most votes in this week’s AP poll. The have not played in three weeks and I do not believe there will be any letdown whatsoever. The team knows that with a win here in New Orleans they will crack the Top-25 poll this coming week.
The following system has eanred an outstanding 75-26-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road teams that are averaging a minimum of 235 rushing yards-per-game, are coming off a game gaining at least 280 rushing yards, and now facing an opponment that has allowed 125 to 150 RYPG on the season.
The machine learning model projects that Army will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and this is great news for backers of Army. In games in which Army rushed for 250 or more yards on 60 or more rushig attempts, and scored 27 or more points has earned a 27-11 SU record and a 25-13 ATS mark good for 66% winning bets since 2010.
|11-13-20||Iowa -3 v. Minnesota||Top||35-7||Win||100||4 h 57 m||Show|
NCAAF Week 11
4% Best Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes
First, 48% of the tickets and 77% of the monmey has been on the Hawkeyes in betting action this week and that is supportive of our bet. I like the line at 3 and do not expect it to move to 3.5, but you could see the vig start increasing on the Iowa lines.
My machine learning models project that Iowa will score 28 or more points in this matchup. In past games in which they scored 28 or more has earned them a solid 31-2 SU record and 24-8-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. And when on the road and scoring 28 or more points, Iowa is a perfect 10- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points in games played since 2015.
|11-11-20||Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8||Top||31-38||Loss||-114||8 h 22 m||Show|
Eastern Michigan vs Ball State
4% Best Bet on Ball State
EMU is coming off a 27-23 loss and ATS win to Kent State. They gained just 61 yards on 31 attempts for a 1.9 yards-per-rush ratio. Their defense allowed 431 yards to Kent State with 212 on the ground and 219 through the air. So, they were outgained by 151 rushing yards and reflects the fact that Kent State dominated both sides of the line-of-scrimmage. These results sets of EMU in a very poor situation for this matchup against Ball State.
The following betting system underscores teams failure to run the ball and control at least one side of the LOS. The system has earned a 151-89-2 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to be on favorites between 8 and 17.5 points that are facing an opponent that was out-rushed by a minimum of 125 rushing yards in their previous game.
The machine learning models predict that Ball State will score a minimum of 28 points. In past games dating back to 2010, Ball State is a solid 37-20-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. EMU is 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2010.
Take Ball State as a 4% Best Bet
|11-07-20||Clemson -5 v. Notre Dame||Top||40-47||Loss||-102||7 h 53 m||Show|
No.1 Clemson vs No. 4 Notre Dame
The marquee game of the day pits these two ACC powerhouses against eachother in Southbend, Indiana. This game marks the 39th time that Notre Dame has been installed as a home dog and have earned a 17-22 SU record and 23-16 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 1980. Heach Coach Kelly is 4-2 as a home dog at Notre Dame as the spreadsheet below reveals.
Since 1996, there have been eight games pitting top-5 ranked teams after six or more games have been played. The home dog in these power matchups has gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS for 38% winning bets.
Clemson head coach Swinney is Swinney is 32-13 ATS after two consecutive games where they committed no more than one turnover.
From the machine learning models Clemson is 13-3 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and their rank is higher in the polls than the opponent’s rank. Notre dame is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS for 22% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points to a team ranked higher than them.
|11-07-20||Vanderbilt +19 v. Mississippi State||Top||17-24||Win||100||3 h 0 m||Show|
Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
4% Best On the Vanderbilt Commodores
Let us start with a tried and true betting system that supports the Commodores and has earned a 62-27 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road underdogs that have allowed 30 or mor epoints in three consecutive games and is facing an opponent coming off a loss of 17 or more points.
Mississippi State has had three consecutive games which they lost the turnover battle. Teams that have an average turnover margin of less than -1 and have had three straight games with a -1 or lower turnover margin are just 64-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
The machine learning models project that M-State will rush for 50 to 115 yards and when they have in past games have been a money-burning 5-15 ATS record for 25% winning bets since 2010. Vanderbilt is 9-2 ATS in road tilts when they have allowed 115 or fewer rushing yards.
|11-07-20||Houston +13.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||10-38||Loss||-110||4 h 9 m||Show|
Houston Cougars vs Cincinnati Bearcats
This 4% bets bet is on the Houston Cougars and consider an alternative betting strategy placing 3% using the line and a 1% amount on the money line. My machine learning models do show a reasonable chance that we could see a headline-making upset.
This is a matchup in which Cincinnati is in a ‘reversion’ mode meaning their recent performance measures are not sustainable and prone to an average or below-average performance. For instance, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS following three consecutive games allowing an opponent 125 or fewer yards since 1990.
My machine learning models project that the Cougars will gain at least 135 rushing yards and will have no more than two turnovers and will have fewer turnovers than Cincinnati. In past games in which the Cougars met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to earn a stout 36-4 SU record and 30-9-1 ATS for 77% winning bets that covered by an average of 11.5 points in games played since 2010.
|11-07-20||Michigan -3.5 v. Indiana||Top||21-38||Loss||-105||4 h 33 m||Show|
No 21 Michigan vs. No 11 Indiana
Indiana is off to a fast and unexpected 2-0 start to the 2020 season. Michigan was shocked by Michigan State, who lost to Rutgers, and annot lose another game before their showdown against Ohio State. Let’s get right to the data points.
Road favorites of not more than seven points that rank lower in the AP poll than their host ranks are 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990 and 7-1 ATS since 2015. Michigan is the team targeted by this database query today.
Indiana is just 3-18 ATS coming off a game in which they covered the spread as a double-digit favorite since 1990.
From my machine learning summaries, Michigan is expected to gain 200 or more rushing yards and outgain Indiana by a minimum of 100 total offensive yards. In past games, in which Michigan met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 49-0 SU and 34-15 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1990 and 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS since 2015. Take the Michigan Wolverines as a Best Bet Titan.
|10-31-20||Ohio State v. Penn State +11||Top||38-25||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
135 Ohio State Buckeyes vs 136 Penn State Nittany Lions
4% 7-Star Big Ten Upset Alert on the Lions + 12
Big Thanks go out to Johnny Detroit of WagerTalk and Sportsmemo for giving me the opportunity to join the best assembly of sports handicappers on the planet. Some of these veterans I have known since my internet start back in 1997, so it is an honor for me to be part of this winning team.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off on eof the most bizarre games in recent seasons. They outgained the Indiana Hoosiers, but still lost in overtime on a controversial 2-point conversion that was awarded to the Hoosiers and ended the game 36-35. The Lions were quite rusty and made far too many mental mistakes so it the last play of the game was not the reason they lost the game. Murphy’s Law was certainly on the Lions side of theledge while the Luck of the Irish was on the Hoosiers.
The betting lineopened with the Buckeyes installed as 10.5-point road favorites. The line has since moved to -12.5-points as offered at Caesars, currently, and more than 90% of the bets have been on Ohio State. I expect this vastly lop-sided betting flow will find an equilibrium in the 13 to 13.5-point range as game time approaches. One way to bet this game is place 50% of a 4%-bet amount now and then steadily add 0.25% amount with each ½-point rise in the line. Scaling in your bet in a game where the consensus betting flows overwhelmingly favor the opponent is always a wise choice.
Justin Field and the Buckeyes team performed as expected after a slow start. The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a game plan not to get beat over the top last week. They had their corners, especially on the far side of the field, seven or more yards off the line-of-scrimmage (LOS). So, they simply dared Fields to throw the field side out route, which few College level QBs can make since it is a 30 to 35 yard horizontal high-risk pass. The pass must be thrown hard and accurate.
I past seasons the Michigan Wolverine’s press defense has been obliterated every year by the Buckeye offense. Truly, the only style of defense that is ewffective against he Buckeyes spread offense that features many variations of crossing routes, is the zone-blitz scheme. Guess, who has been usig that scheme the past few seasons? If Parsons, who is arguably the best defensive player in the nation, was in the lineup, this line would be 10-points. Still, the Lions are quite deep at the linebacker position and stronmgly believe they will be highly effective against the Buckeyes offense.
This betting system has earned an outstanding 29-11-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and has four requirements.
1. Bet on home underdogs.
2. The game is a matchup of conference foes.
3. The home dog is coming off a loss of installed as a road favorite of 6 or more points.
4. The opponent is coming off a home win of 17 or more points.
I run machine learning models that provide a glimpse at what the final box score may look like if the predictions go our way. When we lose a bet these predictions serve to show we lost the bet too.
The models project that the Lions will gain at least 200 rushing yards, score 28 or more points, and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Buckeyes. In past games in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has produced an outstanding 32-0 SU record and a 27-4 ATS mark for 87% winning bets. Take Penn State and enjoy takig the generous amount of points.
|10-31-20||Notre Dame -20.5 v. Georgia Tech||Top||31-13||Loss||-108||7 h 30 m||Show|
(123) Notre Dame vs (124) Georgia Tech
4% 7-Star Best Bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 points and is valid up to -22.5 points
My machine learning models suggest that this is a major mismatch on both sides of the ball. The models project that the Irish will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and score a minimum of 28 points. The following table shows the SU and ATS results for each of these parameters and then combined for when the Irish have met or exceeded these performance measures.
Irish records since 2010
Rushing >=250 yds
67-12 SU + 53-25 ATS 68%
23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%
22-1 SU + 18-5 ATS for 78%
Yellow Jackets since 2010
Allowing Scoring >=28
Allowing Rushing >=250 yds
11-48 SU + 13-44-2 ATS 23%
23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%
2-8 SU + 0-10 ATS for 0%
For the season, the Irish are average a solid 12.3 yards-per-point. The lower the value the better and more efficient the offense is when looking at offensive yards-per-point. The models project that the Irish will post an offensive yards-per-point metric between 10 and 12 in this game. Note, that the Irish are 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have posted a yards-per-point reading between 10 and 12. Take the Irish.
|10-31-20||Memphis +7 v. Cincinnati||Top||10-49||Loss||-109||3 h 52 m||Show|
(137) Memphis Tigers vs. (138) Cincinnati Bearcats
Quarterback Brady White and the Memphis Tigers will travel to Nippert Stadium to take on the No 7 Cincinnati Bearcats in a showdown of American Conference teams. White has been solid completing 107 of his 165 pass attempts for 1,375 yards including 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers have faced far better competition than the Bearcats, who have faced Austin Peay, Army, and American conference foes South Florida and SMU. The Bearcats man-handled No 22 SMU in a 42-13 road win and covered the number as 1.5-point dogs. With a Tiger win over the Bearcats, they are in position to run the table to end the season 8-1 and would have the tie-breaker over the Bearcats.
This betting system supports the Tigers and has earned a 57-36-2 ATS record good for 61.3% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on non-ranked road underdogs of 3.5 or more points for their first five games of the season anmd are facing a ranked conference foe.
Here is a second betting system that support the Tigers and underscores their underrated ground attack. The system has earned a 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requirements are to be on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in game of strong rushing teams averaging 200 to 235 rushing yards-per-game and with the ranked opponent coming off a game in which they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Now you can see the upset alert.
|10-24-20||Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10||Top||45-3||Loss||-109||7 h 23 m||Show|
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh
7-Star Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Pitt Panthers
This Irish team has many uncertainties and is highly suspect based onmy research. Irish love to run the ball, but will be going against on eof the best defensive fronts in the nation. Pitt matches extremely well against the Irish and this is a game that Pitt can win outright.
The line has been static all week, but the total has crashed down from an opening of 48.5 points to the current level of 43.5 points. This is a rare occurrence and brings even greater value to Pitt plus the 9.5 points. The implied final score is an Irish 27-17. The opening line had an implied final of an Irish 29-20 win. So, this shows that Pitt can score fewer points with a total this much lower than the opening and cover the spread.
Pitt has an underrated defensive unit and note that Irish are a money-burning 14-17 SU and 11-20 ATS for 36% when facing a team that allows an average of 285 offensive yards.
From the machine learning models, Pitt is predicted to average a minimum of 7.5 yards-per-pass attempt and will hold the Irish to less than 200 passing yards. When Pitt has met or exceeded these performance measures they are 25-10 SU and 21-11-1 ATS 67% winning bets and 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2010.
|10-24-20||Iowa State +3 v. Oklahoma State||Top||21-24||Push||0||8 h 43 m||Show|
Iowa State vs Oklahoma State
3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020
7-Star Titan on the Iowa State Cyclones
This betting system supports the Cyclones and works against the Cowboys earning a solid 34-8 ATS record for 81% winning bets since 2015. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:
1. Bet on underdogs between 3 and 9 points.
2. That are facing a host that is allowing 8 or fewer first-half points-per-game
3. The host has scored 20 or more points in the first half in each of their last two games.
The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Cyclones are an outstanding 12-1 ATS mark, good for 92% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 24 or more points, having the same or fewer turnovers, and installed as a road dog against a conference foe.
|10-24-20||Penn State -6 v. Indiana||Top||35-36||Loss||-109||8 h 34 m||Show|
No 8 Penn State vs Indiana Hoosiers
3:30 PM EST, October 24th, 2020
The Lions have won 22 of the previous 23 meetings with the Hoosiers by an average score of 35-21 since 1993. However, the Lions betting record is 12-10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets.
The Hoosiers only win this series was a 44-24 win and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since that win, the Hoosiers have lost the last six games and have posted a 2-3-1 ATS mark.
The last two games have been highly competitive between these programs. In 2018, the Lions clawed their way to a 33-28 win but failed to cover the number as 14-point favorites in Bloomington. In 2019, the Lions hosted the Hoosiers in Happy Valley and had another challenging contest escaping with a 34-27 win but failed to cover the spread as 14-point favorites. So, the short betting line for this matchup is not a surprise given the recent history between these programs.Is Penn State a Contender for the College Playoffs?
The Lions are a definite contender for the College Football Playoff (CFP) this season. Like the previous five seasons in the B-10’s East Division, the first step along the CFP path for the Lions will lead through the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines.
Currently, in the East Division, the Buckeyes are the favorites with futures odds of -200. The Lions find themselves in second place in the futures standings and are getting +350 at many sportsbooks. The Wolverines are in third and are getting +450 in the futures market. So, those futures lines reflect how much better the Buckeyes are than the Lions and Wolverines. Despite this fact, betting the Lions to win the East Division is a strong wager to make.Penn State Returns 15 Starters
The Buckeyes project to be an excellent team, but upsets frequently occur in college football. The Lions returns 15 starters from a team that went 11-2 straight-up (SU), 7-6 ATS, and finished at No 9 in the final AP Top 25 poll. Eight of those starters are on offense, including quarterback Sean Clifford, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and four-of-five offensive linemen. The team elected eight captains in Clifford, Freiermuth, center Michal Menet, defensive end Shaka Toney, safety Lamont Wade, linebacker Jesse Luketa, safety Jonathan Sutherland, and punter/kicker Jordan Stout. The Lions possess excellent team leadership, experience, and talent that makes them a contender to win the Big Ten Conference this season.
The machine learning models have many projections using several performance measures that overwhelmingly favor the Lions to win this matchup by double-digits.
The Lions have one of the most balanced and explosive offensives in the nation. They are expected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of 6.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. In previous home games installed as favorites and meeting these measures has earned the Lions a perfect 11-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS mark for 82% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.
Take the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points as a Best Bet.
|10-23-20||Tulsa -10.5 v. South Florida||Top||42-13||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
Tulsa vs South Florida
7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2020
7-Star Titan on the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
This betting system supports Tulsa and has earned a solid 82-41 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:
1. Bet on road favorites between 10 and 20 points
2. Facing a host with a struggling defense allowing 31 or more PPG
3. and after two games in which 60 or more points were scored by both teams in each game.
The following are from the machine learning metrics. Tulsa is an outstanding 42-4 SU record and 33-12-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points installed as a road favorite and 5-0 ATS since 2016.
|10-22-20||Arkansas State +14 v. Appalachian State||Top||17-45||Loss||-107||6 h 11 m||Show|
Arkansas State vs Appalachian State
App State last played in a 52-21 win over Campbell on September 26 and have to belevie there will be rust on both the offensive and defensive units. Arkansas State are playing their fourth game in 19 days and their offense ranks among the best in the nation in flash stats, but have played a weaker schedule than the SEC teams, for instance. App State has played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State and the line is off by a TD based on the maching learning metrics.
This betting system has earned an outstanding 31-10 ATS record for 78% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. The requirements for the system are:
1. Bet on road underdogs.
2. covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.
3. winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
The machine learning models predict that Arkansas State will score at least 28 points. When scoring 28 points they have earned an outstanding 70-13 SU record for 84% wins and 59-22-2 ATS for 73% winning bets. When scoring 28 or more points as a 10-point underdog has earned a 2-3 SU record, BUT a perfect 5-0 ATS mark that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.
7-Star Best Bet and add no more than a 2* amount on the money line.
|10-17-20||Georgia +5 v. Alabama||Top||24-41||Loss||-109||12 h 11 m||Show|
Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide
8:00 PM EST, October 17, 2020
10-Star Titan on the Georgia Bulldogs
Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 34-13 ATS record good for 72% winning bets and 27 of the 34 ATS wins covered the spread by at least 7.5 points. The requirements are to underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a double-digit win over a conference rival and is facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 34 points or more.
The machine learning models project that the Bulldogs will score a minimum of 27 points and gain a minimum of 175 rushing yards. In past games in which the Bulldogs met or exceeded these performance measures in road games has produced a 23-3 SU recpord for 89% wins and 19-7 ATS record for 73% winning bets since 2010; 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
Nick Saban is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in home games installed as 7-point or smaller favorite as the coach of the Tide.
|10-17-20||Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2||Top||21-33||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
Mississippi vs Arkansas
7-Star Best Bet on the Arkansas Razorbacks
Razorbacks are 25-12 ATS in home games facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards-per-game.
This system has gone 35-10 ATS 78% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet pn any team that is facing an opponent that is getting outscored by 7 or more PPG and has scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games.
The machine learning models project that the Razorbacks will score at least 28 points and gain average of 6.9 YUPPL. In past home games in which the Razorbacks met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them an outstanding 17-8 ASTS record for 68% winning bets and a 7-1 ATS 89% record when facing an SEC foe.
|10-17-20||Louisville +17 v. Notre Dame||Top||7-12||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
Louisville vs Notre Dame
Scott Satterfield’s offense may not be very efficient, but it sure is explosive. The Cardinals are a top-12 team in passing and rushing explosiveness but rank in the bottom half of college football in Passing and Rushing Success Rate.
The inconsistencies on offense can really be boiled down to their offensive line play, as they’ve allowed 14 sacks and 40 tackles for loss in their first four games.
The Cards have done most of their damage through the air with quarterback Micale Cunningham, who is a legit dual-threat QB, but he’s regressed from last year. Last season, Cunningham averaged 11.2 yards per attempt, but this year, he’s dropped all the way down to 8.0. He’s also only completing 58.9% of his passes, so this is a game in which I see him, having a monster game.
Notre Dame is 1-12 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 or more points.
Here is a betting system that has earned a 38-11 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet on any team with 16 or more returning starters and has lost their last two games.
|10-17-20||Auburn -2.5 v. South Carolina||Top||22-30||Loss||-115||1 h 47 m||Show|
Auburn vs South Carolina
In the Tiger’s last trip to Columbia in 2011, the No 10 Gamecocks were upset by an unranked Tigers squad 16-13. The Tigers are 3-0 straight-up (SU) and 2-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in Columbia, 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS at home, and 3-1-1 SU and ATS in neutral site games facing the Gamecocks.
This college football betting system supports the Tigers and has earned an outstanding 77-34-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. More recently, the system has achieved a 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the previous three seasons.
There are three requirements for this system. The first is to bet on any team averaging 280 to 330 offensive YPG on the season. The second and third is the opponent gaining 390 to 440 YPG on the season and coming off a game gaining 7.25 or more yards-per-play. That is all there is to track this highly profitable betting system.
The Tigers are -3 points via Bet MGM. The machine learning models project that the Tigers will rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards and score 28 points. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded this pair of performance measures has led them to a 74-5 SU mark for 94% wins and 53-23-3 ATS record and 70% winning bets that covered the number by an average of 7 points.
Taking the previous pair of performance measures and adding games in which the Tigers were a road favorite improves the results to a perfect 12-0 SU winning these games by an average of 21 points and 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets that covered the number by an average of 11.4 points.
|10-10-20||Pittsburgh -6 v. Boston College||Top||30-31||Loss||-113||7 h 55 m||Show|
Boston College vs Pittsburgh
10-Star Titan on the Pitt Panthers
Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 100-50 ATS record gopod for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet on road teams, which is obviously Pittsburgh, in a game in which both teams have won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and is now facing a host that is coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a conference rival. BC lost 26-22 to UNC as 14.5-point dogs last week.
Pitt defense will be on display in this matchup and the machine learning models project that BC will gain less than 5 yards per play and not exceed 100 rushing yards. In past games in which Pitt met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 33-7 SU mark and 28-10 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2006; 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
|10-10-20||Texas Tech v. Iowa State -11.5||Top||15-31||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
Texas Tech vs Iowa State
7-Star Titan Best Bet on the Cyclones
Coming off its first win over Oklahoma in Ames, Iowa, since 1960, No. 24 Iowa State is looking to keep its focus against a visiting Texas Tech team that is trying to find a way to win. In the last two weeks, Texas Tech (1-2, 0-2 Big 12) dropped an overtime decision to then-No. 8 Texas and then squandered a fourth-quarter lead at Kansas State.
The machine learning models project that ISU will average a minimum of 9 yards-per-pass-attempt and will score at least 31 points. In past games in which the Cyclones met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 15-3 SU record and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets since 2006.
|10-10-20||Florida -5 v. Texas A&M||Top||38-41||Loss||-109||5 h 52 m||Show|
Florida vs Texas A&M
This betting system has earned a 138-83 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons and serves the active bettor well. It has produced a profit of $4,300 for the $100 bettor for a 19% return on investment (ROI). This betting system has four parameters that work together to produce consistent returns over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet against teams in the regular or postseason that were a bowl or playoff team from last year and are coming off a loss of 14 to 31 points as a ranked team.
The Aggies are coming off a loss as a ranked team to No 2 Alabama by the final score of 52-24 losing by 28 points and failing to cover the spread as 18-point road underdogs. The loss did not cause the Aggies much damage in the rankings this week as they find themselves positioned at No 14.
Tweaking this system produces a 17-7 SU record and 15-9 ATS mark good for 62% winning bets with a ranked team coming off a 14 to 31 point loss to a team ranked better than them, and is now facing another team ranked better than them in the current AP poll.
This awesome money line betting system has earned an outstanding 56-34 ATS record for 62% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,900. The requirements of this money line system are to bet on a home team using the money line off a blowout loss by 21 or more points to a conference rival that has five or more defensive returning starters than the current opponent.
This money line system has earned an 85-21 record for 80% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to bet on a road team using the money line that is an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards-per-play, after two consecutive games in which they gained 6.3 or more yards-per-play in each of them and is now facing an opponent with a struggling defense that is allowing at least 6.25 yards-per-play.
The machine learning models project that the Gators will score 28 or more points and average at least nine yards-per-pass attempt. In past games in which the Gators met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to earn a 40-1 SU record for 98% wins and a 32-5-2 ATS mark good for 87% winning bets that have covered by an average of 10.4 points.
When the Aggies have played games in which they allowed 28 or more points and more than 9 yards per pass attempt they have gone onto a miserable 5-27 SU record for 16% wins and 7-23-2 ATS record for 23% winning bets.
|10-10-20||Virginia Tech +3 v. North Carolina||Top||45-56||Loss||-103||3 h 26 m||Show|
Virginia Tech vs UNC
7-Star Play on the V-Tech Hokies
Let us start with a betting system that has earned a solid 76-35 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that has a strong ground attack averaging a minimum of 4.8 yards-per-rush and are coming off a game in which they out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 150 yards and are now facing an average rusinmg team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards-per-rush. Simply said, Tech has the better ground attach and will use that strength to control the clock and dominate time-of-possession.
The machine learning models project that the Hokies will gain at least 5 yards-per-rush and will have fewer turnovers than UNC. In past games in which the Hokies met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned a 21-1 SU record and 19-3 ATS for 86.4% winning bets.
|10-09-20||Louisville v. Georgia Tech +5.5||Top||27-46||Win||100||6 h 58 m||Show|
Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech
7-Star Upset Alert on Georgia Tech
My Machine learning models project that G-Tech will average 5.5 or more rushing yards-per-attempt and score 28 or more points. In past games in which Tech met or exceeded this par of performance measures they have gone to a 37-7 SU record and 32-9-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 2011; in home conference games installed as a dog they have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2011. Take Tech.
|10-03-20||Virginia v. Clemson -28.5||Top||23-41||Loss||-104||11 h 46 m||Show|
Virginia Cavaliers vs No 1 Clemson Tigers
The top-ranked Clemson Tigers, who are 2-0 overall and 1-0 in the ACC host the Virginia Cavaliers, who own a 1-0 overall and ACC Conference record. The two teams had not faced eachother for six consecutive seasons until last seasons’ ACC Championship game and now 10 months later face eachother again. The Tigers simply dominated the Cavaliers on both sides of the ball in their 62-17 ACC Championship win and covered the spread as 29.5-point favorites quite easily.
Virginia trailed only by 7 points at the end of a 14-7 first quarter, but from there on the game was controlled by the Tigers. Clemson returning QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 302 yards completing 16 of 22 passes including 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions. All combined, he earned a ridiculously high QB rating of 248. Overall, the Tigers outgained the Cavaliers by 232 offensive yards and forced three turnovers and did not turn the ball over.
I have found over my 26 years of sports data research, predictions, and picks that meaningful data points can be obtained from look at the previous game’s boxes score. Hence, the wording of What’s Next for a team coming off specific performance measures.
The Cavaliers are coming off a strong start to their 2020 season with a 30-20 win over Duke University and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home favorites. They gained 185 rushing yards on 46 attempts for a 4.02 yards-per-rush ratio. QB Brennan Armstrong had an inconsistent game throwing for 269 yards but completing 53% of his 45 pass attempts for 24 completed passes. He averaged just 4.9 yards-per-pass-attempt including 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
So, what’s next for the Cavaliers coming off this game based on their performances. The Cavaliers as road double-digit underdogs are 6-33 straight-up (SU) for 15% wins. 19-18-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 51.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ is 20-19 for 51% in games played following a game in which they averaged 4.2 or fewer rushing yards-per-attempt since 2006. Not much revealed one way or the other from just that alone. If we filter the data to include games over the last five seasons the Cavaliers are 0-12 SU, 7-5 ATS for 58% winning bets, and the ‘UNDER’ has earned a 7-5 winning record.
Combine Cavalier Rushing Yards and Turnover Margin
When combining rushing yards per attempt and turnover margin the brilliant College Football database reveals that the Cavaliers are 4-7 SU for 36% wins, 4-7 ATS, and 8-3 ‘OVER’ for 73% winning bets. So, now I have a possible lean to bet the ‘OVER’. But we have only just begun to drill the data.
The Tigers are 15-4 ATS when competing against a conference foe in games played spanning the last three seasons. They had half-time leads of 14 or more points in their last two games. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after leading their previous two games by 14 or more points at the half in games played over the last three seasons.
The Tigers offense is looking quite good noting that they scored 20 or more points in the first half of each of the first two games this season. So, the Tigers are a 13-3 ATS following two straight games scoring 20 or more points in the first half in games played over the last three seasons.
So, here we get into a formidable team situation supporting a bet on the Tigers. Teams that ranked in the Top-5 and did not cover the spread in their last two games and are now favored by 20 or more points and facing an opponent off a SU win are an impressive 21-1 SU for 96% wins, 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ 10-9-1 for 53% in games played since 2006.
What Does the Machine Learning Project for This Game?
The machine learning models predict a near certainty that the Tigers will score 28 or more points in this game. Teams ranked 5 or higher in the polls and score 28 points are 743-74 SU for 91% wins, 490-295-16 ATS for 62.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ has earned a solid 404-267-20 record in game splayed since 2006. More specifically, when the Tigers are 47-1 SU for 98% wins, 32-14-1 ATS for a money-making 70% winning bets, and an even 23-23-1 record on the total in games played since 2016.
Take the Clemson Tigers and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet
|10-03-20||Auburn +7.5 v. Georgia||Top||6-27||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
No 7 Auburn Tigers vs No 4 Georgia Bulldogs
This is a matchup of nationally ranked SEC Conference Titans squaring off in Athens, GA Saturday Night with a lot on the line. Speaking of the line, the Georgia Bulldogs are a 6.5-point home favorite, but the early betting flows sees the professionals backing the Auburn Tigers. The number of betting tickets is even at 50-50, but 75% of the money is on the Tigers and the line will move to a price of 6 points.
The Tigers are 21-17 straight-up for 55% wins, but a money-burning 14-23 ATS for 38% winning bets when coming off a game allowing 14 or fewer points. The news from the database queries improves to 12-8 SU for 60% winning bets and 13-7 ATS for 65% winning bets coming off a game where the offense averaged at least 5.5 yards-per-play, had 1 or zero turnovers and play on the road against a conference foe in games played since 2010.
This money line betting system has earned an 54-57 record for just 49% winners but has averaged a +220-dog wager in making the $100 bettor a profit of $4,930 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between +150 and +300 in a game where both teams have returned five or fewer offensive starters. Since 1990, this simple betting system has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,430. This system supports the Auburn Tigers.
The models project that the Tigers will force the Bulldogs into at least two turnovers, will have one or zero turnovers and will rush for 150 or more yards. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 29-1 SU record and a 21-8-1 ATS record producing 72.4% winning bets that have covered by an average of 9.3 points.
The Tigers are 3-0 SU and ATS when on the road installed as a dog and meeting or exceeded the previously mentioned performance measures. Further, the best of the best is the fact that when the Tigers meet the projections mentioned above while playing a conference foe they are a perfect 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 16 points.Take the Auburn Tigers plus the points and look for the outright win. Consider splitting your bet size into two parts consisting of 70% using the spread and 30% using the money line.
|10-03-20||Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama||Top||24-52||Loss||-110||6 h 15 m||Show|
No 13 Texas A&M Aggies vs No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
There are few matchups that are more enjoyable to watch then when two ranked teams out of the SEC Conference lock horns. This is one of them when No 13 Texas A&M Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa to face the No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, who are favored by 17 points. Both teams are 1-0 overall and 1-0 in the SEC. The Tide got off to fast 28-3 start hosting the Missouri Tigers and coasted to the 38-19 win but failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites. The Aggies got off to unorthodox 7-5 half-time before getting control of the game in the second stanza against a determined Vanderbilt Commodores team to win 17-12 but failed to cover the spread as 25.5-point favorites.
Here is a College Football betting system that has earned a 75%-win percentage on a 39-13 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons. The betting system requires us to bet on road teams that scored and allowed 17 or fewer points in their last game and are now facing a host, who led by 17 or more points at the half in their last game. Over the last three seasons this system has been a near-imperfect 10-1 ATS for 92% winning bets.Who Do the Machine Learning Models Project
For a matchup of SEC teams, a posted total of 52-points is low scoring and does reflect the strength of both defenses in this matchup. So, the betting lines indicate a final score of 34-17 based on the Tide favored by 17 points and the posted total of 52-points. The projections call for the Aggies to hold the Tide to 28 or fewer points and not have more turnovers than the Tide.
In past games in which the Aggies met or exceeded these performance measures in SEC matchups they have earned an outstanding 24-3 SU record and a 22-3 ATS mark for 88% winning bets since 2006. When they achieved these performance measures in road SEC games, they are 12- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 12 points.
The Tide is 4-3 SU and an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home conference games when they have not scored more than 28 points and lost the turnover battle.Take the Texas A&M Aggies as an Upset Alert Best Bet Titan
|10-03-20||North Carolina -14 v. Boston College||Top||26-22||Loss||-110||6 h 18 m||Show|
No 12 North Carolina Tarheels take to the road and to visit Chestnut Hill to take on the ACC rival Boston College Eagles. The Tarheels were ranked 18th in the 2020 preseason poll and are now ranked 12th after their dominating 31-6 win over conference rival Syracuse Orange. They were installed as 24-point home favorites and covered that spread by a single point. This is the highest ranking the Tarheels have enjoyed since being ranked 8th in Week 13 of the 2015 season.
The Tarheels are installed as 14.5-point road favorite with a posted total of 54 points. The betting public accounts for more than 70% of the bets placed on the Tarheels, but account for 48% of the total money bet on the game of the 20 sportsbooks that I track. Of the parlay bets made on this game 72% are betting the Tarheels and the ‘OVER’. So, this is a sign of irrational betting with so many obsessed with the Tarheels and provides a contrarian type of bet on Boston College.
The Tarheels have not played a game in three weeks after a non-conference game against Charlotte University was cancelled due to COVID-19 related illnesses to Charlotte’s offensive unit. The layoff will not have negative impact to their performance in this game. They have the best depth on the roster in many seasons and have a sophomore QB in Sam Howell that plays at a level far beyond his years. For the 2019 season he completed 259 of his 422 pass attempts for 61.4%, gaining 3,641 yards including 38 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions.
The total was lined at 65 points in the Syracuse game, which implied a higher scoring game than what was the result. The Tarheels sputtered during the first half and held a 7-3 lead. It was not until the fourth quarter that they got things ignited and scored 21 unanswered points. Howell was the main reason for the offensive explosion and for the game completed 25 of 34 passes for 75% completions, 295 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Syracuse does have an elite-level defensive unit, so it is not concerning that Howell and the offense had some rust to get rid of.
The Tarheels ground attack was dominating in the fourth quarter and helped open the play action passing scheme. RB Javonte Williams had 57 rushing yards on 14 attempts including 3 touchdowns. RB Michael Carter had just 7 touches but gained 78 rushing yards for an 11.1 yards-per-rush average. WR Dyami Brown had a huge day catching 6 balls for 94 yards and a 15.7 yards-per-catch average.
The Tarheels and head coach Mack Brown have a luxury consisting of 10 of 11 returning starters on offense including their QB Howell and return 7 from last year’s defense. In this matchup the defense will get the accolades being matched against an Eagle offense that returns 6 offensive starters and 9 on defense. The Tarheel defense is vastly better than the Eagle defense and despite having 9 returning defensive starters I do not see the Eagles containing the Tarheel offense for all four quarters.
The Tarheels gained 160 rushing yards on 35 carries against one of the better defensive fronts seven in the ACC and will gain even more than that against the Eagle defense.
The 28-point scoring level is a pivotal one with many teams having much better results straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) when they score 28 or more points versus game sin which they do not. The machine learning models project that the Tarheels will score 28 or more points. In past games in which the Tarheels scored 28 or more points has earned a 175-36 SU record for 83% wins, 142-55 ATS record good for 72% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ winning the money 77% on a 64-19-4 record since 1980.
My highly intelligent database reveals that the Tarheels are 17-1 SU and winning these games by an average of 25 points, and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 7.9 points in road games and favored by double-digits.
Take the North Carolina Tarheels and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet
|09-26-20||Florida State +11 v. Miami-FL||Top||10-52||Loss||-110||9 h 2 m||Show|
Florida State vs 12 Miami (FLA)
This betting system has earned a losing 45-153 record for 23% SU wins and 117-75-6 ATS mark good for 61% winners over the past 15 seasons. The requirements for an active opportunity are to bet on unranked road teams facing a conference foe and installed as a 3.5 or greater underdog and facing a ranked team between game numbers 2 and 5 of the regular seasons.
Now, let us drill down through this data to determine a sub-set that has posted better results. Applying the data to only show games played in the ACC Conference produces a 5-18 SU record for 22% wins and a 15-8 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2005.
One more drill down produces a subset that has earned a 7-12 SU record for 37% wins and a jaw-dropping 16-3 ATS mark good for 84% when the team (Seminoles) is coming off a road game installed as a favorite.
The Hurricanes are coming off a terrific 47-34 win over the Louisville Cardinals in which the Hurricanes graduate transfer QB D’Eriq King completed 18 of 30 pass attempts for 325 yards and three touchdowns. The Hurricanes are a solid 5-1 ATS coming off a game throwing for 300 or more passing yards and rushing for at least 150 yards.
However, the news is not all good given that the Hurricane defense was dominated in allowing 209 rushing yards and 309 passing yards. Hurricanes are a terrible 1-7 ATS for 11% winning bets following a game in which their defense allowed a minimum of 180 rushing yards and 250 passing yards.
The machine learning models project that the Seminoles will gain 8.5 or more yards-per-play and will score 28 or more points. In past games in which the Seminoles met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn an outstanding 12-0 SU record and a 9-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 11 points.Bet the Florida State Seminoles and split the wager into two parts with 70% of your normal bet size on the line and 30% bet using the money line. I realize this is a very bold call to make, but I do belevie the Seminoles will win the game!
|09-26-20||Army v. Cincinnati -12||Top||10-24||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
22 Army vs 14 Cincinnati
September 26, 2020, 3:30 PM EST
Army is off to a fast start winning and covering both games they have played. They defeated Middle Tenn State 42-0 as a 3.5-point home favorite and defeated LA-Monroe 37-7 as 24-point home favorites. The bad news for the Cadets is that they are 5-15 ATS after two consecutive games scoring at least 31 points in each and 11-27 ATS following two straight games in which they outrushed their opponents by 150 or more rushing yards in each game.
The machine learning models project that Cincinnati will score at least 28 points and allow less than 350 offensive yards. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 47-0 SU record and 34-10-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets since 2006 and 7-1 ATS over the last three seasons.
|09-26-20||Texas -17.5 v. Texas Tech||Top||63-56||Loss||-105||5 h 15 m||Show|
8 Texas vs Texas Tech
The machine learning models project that the Longhorns will gain at least 6.9 yards-per-play, score 28 or more points, and have fewer turnovers than Texas Tech. In past games in which the Longhorns have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets that have covered by an average of 13 points.
|09-26-20||Kentucky v. Auburn -6.5||Top||13-29||Win||100||4 h 17 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
23 Kentucky vs 8 Auburn
12:00 PM EST, September 26, 2020
The Tigers (9-4, 5-3 SEC in 2019) also reached the 50-point mark four times during Nix's initial campaign. That ties for second in program history behind the six 50-point outings Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton put on the board during the school's 2010 national championship season.
The machine learning tools project that the Tigers will gain at least 150 rushing yards and score at least 27 points and average at least 9 yards-per-pass play. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 49-3 SU record and a 36-15-1 ATS mark for 71% winning bets since 2006 and 13-3 ATS over the last three seasons.Take the Auburn Tigers as a 7-Star Best Bet.
|09-24-20||UAB v. South Alabama +7||Top||42-10||Loss||-110||4 h 13 m||Show|
UAB vs South Alabama
On Thursday Night at Hancock Whitney Stadium the C-USA UAB Blazers will be the guests of the Sun Belt South Alabama Jaguars with both teams coming off losses. The Blazers were man-handled at Miami 31-14 and failed to cover the generous 15.5 point spread back on September 10. The Jaguars are coming off a tough 27-24 home loss to Tulane, but easily covered the spread as 11.5-point underdogs. The Blazers are 1-1 versus the total line while the Jaguars have seen both of their games go ‘UNDER’ the total line.Both Teams have Many Returning Starters
The Blazers head coach Bill Clark is excited about the season given that he has 18 of the 22 starters from last season returning to play this one. The Blazers return nine starters on offense including their quarterback and red shirt junior Tyler Johnston III, who has been their starter for the past three seasons. In 2019, he threw for 2,250 yards on 59% completions including 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Cutting down the number of interceptions and improving the touchdown-to-interception ratio were addressed during the off season. He was off to a vastly improved start to the season before injuring his shoulder and is out indefinitely.
The biggest asset on the team is the return of all five starting offensive linemen from last season. The OL unit is by far the most complex and most difficult for any group of five teammates to work together to make the most out of every possession. UAB has four red shirt Seniors and a red shirt Junior on the offensive line and their chemistry is extremely positive having the experience of playing together for many games. Having an experienced QB and OL has proven to reduce mistakes and execute game plans at a much higher level. So, backup sophomore QB Bryson Lucero will have added confidence because of the experienced OL.A Betting System That Hits 80% ATS Winners
Here is an impeccable betting system that has earned a 22-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and 15-2 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets. The instructions required are to play on any team off an extremely tough loss of three or fewer points during the first four weeks of the regular season. An amazing 58% of these games covered the spready a minimum of 7 points.What Does the Machine Learning Models Tell Us?
I have previously discussed the importance of 28 points and the implications for NCAA football teams when they score or more or allow more than 28 points in a game. There are the high-powered offenses every year, like the LSU Tigers, in 2019 that will have a higher pivot point for points scored and allowed. Overall, I have found the 28-point pivot to be identified by the machine learning models more often.
So, the projections call for the Jaguars to score 28 or more points, gain a minimum of 175 rushing yards, will have more rushing yards than the Blazers, and average at least 1.0 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Jaguars scored 28 or more points they have earned a solid 26-13 SU record and 23-15-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2012. The Blazers are a miserable 17-116 SU for 13% wins and 40-81-2 ATS for 33% winning bets since 2012. Worse yet is that the Blazers are 1-8 SU and ATS for 11.1% winners when installed as a road favorite and allowing the host to score 28 or more points.
The Jaguars are a robust money making 15-4 SU for 79% wins and 11-6-2 ATS for 65% winning bets when outgaining their opponent by at least 1.25 yards-per-play since 2012 and 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS spanning games played over the last three seasons.Bet the South Alabama Jaguars plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert Pick and expect the Upset!
|09-19-20||Wake Forest +1 v. NC State||Top||42-45||Loss||-105||13 h 41 m||Show|
Wake returns just three starters on offense but return eight starters on defense. Despite the lack of expereince on offense, they held up well against Clemson, who has a one of the best defensive units in the nation. They do return eight starters on defense that will match up quite well against a solid Wolfpack offensive unit.
Wake played many high-scoring games in 2019 and as a result the defense was spending too much time on the field and gave up too many fourth quarter scores. The offense is geared towards moving the chains and keeping the opposing offense off the field, which is the winning recipe facing the Wolfpack.A Time-Tested Betting System
Here is a proven betting system that has earned a solid 57-22 ATS record since 1990 and instructs us to play on road teams in the first four weeks of the season that have a new starting QB and was a bowl team that lost the last two games of the season.What Does the Machine Learning Tools Suggest is a Solid Bet?
The projections call for Wake to score at least 28 points and throw for an average of at least 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt. In past games in which Wake has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 20-0 SU record and an amazing 18-1 ATS mark for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 9.5 points.
Take the Wake Forest Demon Deacons as a Best Bet Upset Alert this Saturday.
|09-19-20||Miami-FL +1.5 v. Louisville||Top||47-34||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
Miami (FLA) vs Louisville
7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Miami Hurricanes
Last season, the Hurricanes destroyed the Cardinal 55-27 with Quarterback Jarren Williams throwing for a school-record six touchdowns. After that game, it appeared that the Hurricanes were on the national stage, but Williams never even came close to matching that performance over the remainder of the season. He transferred to Garden City Community College in Kansas to hopefully finish out his NCAA career.
The Hurricanes lost a lot of talent from last season’s team due to the NFL draft and players opting out of the season account of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for those choosing to play has brough them great opportunities and the Hurricanes starting QB D’Eriq King, who is a graduate transfer from the University of Houston, is making the most of it. He has an active NCAA-record scoring streak of having at least one touchdown pass and one rushing touchdown in 16 consecutive games. So, the Hurricanes offense under new OC Rhett Lashlee, will look to play fast and optimize the duel threat athleticism of King.Cardinal Defense is Much Better
The Louisville defense allowed three scoring touchdowns last week in their 35-21 win over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last week. However, two of these scores involved drives of 1 and 4 yards, after failed special team plays. One of the turnovers was a dropped ball by the punter and then a blocked punt. So, taking those miscues into account, the Louisville defense may have allowed 10 or fewer points.
The defense also got a turnover on downs at the goal line and had 11 tackles-for-loss and reflects consistent gap discipline and penetration they attained. This unit will have to play even better against the Hurricane offense that suddenly has many weapons and King, who is even being mentioned in Heisman conversations.Important Matchup Situations
The following team situational results are based on their games last week. The Hurricanes are 6-1 straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) after a game in which they rushed for 300 or more yards since the 2011 season. Moreover, the Hurricanes are a stout 18-4 SU and 14-8 ATS for 64% winning bets when out rushing their previous opponent by 125 or more yards since 2011.
The Cardinal is just 18-28 ATS for 39% winning bets following a game where their defense forced no more than one turnover in games played since 2011. Moreover, they are 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when the next game has been at home and a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS when ranked in the Top-25 poll.A Money Line Betting System Support the Hurricanes
This money line betting system has earned an outstanding 41-31 record for 56% winning wagers and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,910 over the last 10 seasons. The betting system instructs us to bet on road team using the money line that are facing an opponent coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by at least 175 yards and has at least eight returning starters on offense during the first four weeks of the regular season.What Does the Machine Learning Tools Expect?
The current lines showing Louisville favored by 2.5 points and total of 65 points implies a 34-31 Louisville win. However, the machine learning projections sees the final score favoring the Hurricanes if they can contain the Cardinal to fewer than 28 points. When the Hurricanes have been installed as a road dog and have held the host to fewer than 28 points has produced a 16-12 SU record and a jaw-dropping 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winning bets since 1990.
The Cardinal is just 10-4 SU and 1-13 ATS when they have been a home favorite and scored fewer than 28 points in games played since 2011. The ‘UNDER’ is a perfect 14-0 in these games.The Miami Hurricanes +2.5 points and the ‘UNDER’ 65-points are a pair of Best Bets and consider making this a parlay opportunity, but risk no more than a 3-Star Amount
|09-19-20||Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +7.5||Top||49-21||Loss||-101||5 h 56 m||Show|
14 University of Central Florida vs Georgia Tech
The No 14 UCF Knights will take to the field for the first time in the 2020 season. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went into Tallahassee as a 13-point underdog and upset the Florida State Seminoles 16-13. Their confidence will be high knowing they have another opportunity to upset a ranked opponent in the Knights. The Jackets find themselves installed as 7.5-point home underdogs with a over/under line of 63-points. These lines imply a final score of 35-28 with the Knights winning.Returning Starters Are a Huge Asset for the Jackets
The Jackets return nine offensive and 10 defensive starters. The biggest story coming out of last week’s win is all about the superior play of freshman quarterback Curtis Sims, who became the first-ever freshman QB to win a season opener and is the first fresh to start at Georgia Tech since Reggie Ball did in the 2003 season. He performed more like an experienced senior throwing for 277 passing yards on 24 completions, which is the highest since 2003. So, with all five offensive linemen back Sims will get solid protection and run blocking from this experienced unit and that is a major advantage for the Jackets in this matchup.
The defense is an even bigger story for the Jackets having held the Seminoles to just 307 total yards and 3.8 yards-per-play. The unit also forced three turnovers with their aggressive hard-hitting play. Linebacker Quez Jackson had an interception and led the team with nine tackles including 7 solo tackles. One fumble was forced and recovered by LB David Curry, who also had seven total tackles including four solo ones. The second fumble was recovered by defensive lineman Djimon Brooks, who also had three total tackles. There were three additional fumbles forced, but the Seminoles managed to recover them. In case you wanted to know, the most fumbles the Seminoles have had in a game is 7 and fumbles lost is 4 in all games played since 1990.
The Jacket defense played with a disciplined focus and were never caught out of position throughout the entire game. Head Coach Geoff Collins knows this is a solid recipe to contain the UCF juggernaut offense.A 76% ATS Betting System Supports the Jackets
This betting system has earned an amazing 59-25 against-the-spread (ATS) record for 76% winning tickets over the last 30 seasons. The system instructs us to be on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing an opponent in the first four weeks of the season that won their last three games of the previous season.
The key to this game and for the Jackets to cover the spread is to keep UCF from scoring more than 28 points and not get into a shooting match with them. In past games, in which the Jacks and their opponent both score 27 or more points they have gone a dismal 1-9 ATS for 10% winning bets. The 28-point level is a pivot point for the majority of NCAAF teams and not just for this matchup.
So, the projections call for the Jackets to score 27 or more points and have at least 5 more first downs than the Knights. In games played in which the Jackets scored 27 or more points and had more than 5 first downs than their opponent has seen them go on to record a 49-4 SU record and 40-11 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10.3 points.
Take the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert.
|09-19-20||Boston College +5.5 v. Duke||Top||26-6||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
Duke vs Boston College
September 19, 2020, 12:00 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports BC and has earned an 86-34 ATS record good for 71% winning bets spanning the last five seasons. The system instructs us to bet against any team after being outgained by 125 total yards in their previous game and with an inexperienced QB in the first four weeks of the regular season. If the play against team (Duke) is a home favorite the system improves to 36-11 for 77% ATS winning bets.
The machine learning models project that BC will rush for at least 250 rushing yards and average at least 5.0 yards-per-rush. In past games in which BC met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 21-3 SU record and a 20-4 ATS record that covers the spread by an average of 10.3 points. If BC was installed as an underdog they have posted a 7-2 SU record and 9-0 ATS mark covering by an average of 16.3 points.
|09-12-20||Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville||Top||21-35||Loss||-115||12 h 7 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Western Kentucky vs Louisville
8:00 PM EST, September 12, 2020
The Cardinals offense also has returning quarterback Micale Cunningham, who is a red-shirt junior and a duel run-pass threat. He has gained 979 rusing yards with 11 touchdowns and passed for 2,538 yards on 62% completions with 23 touchdowns, and 6 picks over his last two seasons. Despite these impressive stats, I see the offense struggling against a very fast and disciplined Hilltopper defensive unit. In order to contain a duel threat QB it is imperative for the defense to maintain their individual gap areas and not over react to Cunningham’s ball fakes – and the unit will do a great job.
From the machine learning tools and models the Hilltoppers are projected to gain an average of at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt and contain Louisville to fewer than 28 points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 33-11-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 10 points. In 2018, they had Louisville on the ropes leading 14-6 starting the fourth quarter, before Louisville scored 14 points in the fourth to win 20-17. WKU was a 21 point underdog and they did exceed the performance measures mentioned above.
|09-05-20||Arkansas State v. Memphis -18.5||Top||24-37||Loss||-110||10 h 44 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Arkansas State vs Memphis Tigers
8:00 PM EST, September 5, 2020
I wrote about the immense value of returning starters on offense, especially when four or five of the previous season’s starting offensive line returns for this season. Memphis has this in place to start their season and it will pay them handsome dividends over the first four weeks of the season.
From the machine learning tools, Memphis is projected to average at least 9.0 yards-per-pass-play and out-gain Arkansas State by at least 200 yards. In past games in which Memphis met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to earn a 13-1 ATS record for 93% winning bets that has also covered the spread by an average of 20.5 points.
|09-05-20||SMU v. Texas State +24||Top||31-24||Win||100||6 h 45 m||Show|
SMU Mustangs vs Texas State
September 5, 2020, 4:30 PM EST
From the machine learning tools and projections Texas State is projected to pass for 75 fewer yards than SMU will pass for and that SMU will NOT exceed 31 or more points. In past Texas State games where this pair of measures were met or exceeded they are 19-10 ATS for 66% winning bets; 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when installed as a double digit dog.
If you do like teasers, consider a 6-point teaser adding 6-points to the current total and adding 6-points to the current line. This makes the total about 72.5/73 points playing ‘UNDER’ and the T-State a 29/30-poit underdog.
SMU has not done well in games expected to be high scoring and are 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last three seasons.
|09-03-20||South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss||Top||32-21||Win||100||5 h 16 m||Show|
The South Alabama Jaguars, who are members in the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference will travel to take on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, who are members of the West Division of the 14-team Conference-USA. The Eagles find themselves installed as double-digit home favorites against the Jaguars, who won just two games last season.The Value of Returning Starters for the Eagles
During the first four weeks of the NCAA Football season knowing the teams that have the majority of starters returning from last season is a major advantage when facing a team that is re-building form the previous year. There are exceptions like the Top-5 programs in the country, who simply see their players move on to the NFL and then plug-and-play with new 5-Star recruits. The Eagles return 14 total starters with eight on offense including quarterback Jack Abraham and six on defense. Abraham had a solid 2019 season completing 68% of his pass attempts for 3,496 yards including 19 touchdowns. He did throw 15 interceptions, but that number of mistakes will drop given he has another full season of expereince under his belt.
Even more important than having the starting quarterback returning is the number of starters returning from the offensive line. The Eagles have four of the five offensive linemen back this season. The offensive line is the unit that requires the greatest amount of coordinated technique and chemistry. Having 4 or 5 starters returning on the offensive line provides the foundation for the entire offense to be even more efficient than they were at the end of the previous season. The Value of Returning Starters for the Jaguars
The 2019 season saw the Jaguars go a horrid 2-10, but they did earn respectable 7-5 against-the-spread (ATS) record. Head Coach Steve Campbell is just 5-19 straight up and 13-11 ATS in his first two seasons but has a 13 returning starters with seven on offense including quarterback Desmond Trotter and six on defense. The defense is returning the top-5 tacklers and gives reason for the defensive unit to be significantly better in 2020.
The Jaguars ranked fifth in the Sun Belt Conference allowing an averaging of 409 offensive yards-per-game, sixth allowing 192 rushing yards-per-game, and fourth allowing 217 passing yards-per-game. Having the best defensive players returning that accounted for 65% of last season’s production is key as are the seven starters returning on offense that accounted for 73% of last season’s total production.The Betting Public and Irrational Exuberance
I key handicapping method is to track the percentage of wagers being made and the total amounts of money those betting tickets add up to. In this game 78% of all bets being made are on the Eagles resulting in 22% of bets in support of the Jaguars. The line for this game opened with the Eagles favored by 14 points and despite having a 3:1 margin in bets made on them, the line has dropped to 13.5 points. The half-point decline in the line is a mall amount, but it is far more meaningful when the overwhelming number of bets are on the dog. This implies that the large bettors, so-called Wise Guys, are on the Jaguars and their combined money of their bets is offsetting the small public bets.What Does the Machine Learning Tools Have to Say?
As the season rolls on you will notices that there is a pivot point in scoring that when exceeded favors that team and works against their opponent. Such is the case in this matchup as the Eagles are 171-28-1 straight-up (SU) for 86% wins and 131-41-3 ATS for 76.2% winning bets when they score 28 or more points in games played since 1980; 49-16 SU for 75% wins and 45-19-1 ATS for 70.3% winning bets since 2010; 16-2 SU for 89% wins and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last three seasons.
The Jaguars are a money-burning 8-54 SU for 13% wins and 21-39-2 ATS for 35% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points since 2011; 3-23 SU for 12% wins and 10-15 ATS for 40% winning bets over the last three seasons.
There is more though, then just using 28 points as a pivot to determine a betting opportunity. The machine learning summary shows that the Jaguars are just 1-7 SU for 13% wins, but 7-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring at least 24 points and are installed as a double-digit road underdog. The Eagles are 9-9 SU for 50% wins and 4-14 ATS for just 22% winning bets installed as a double-digit home favorite and allowing that opponent to score at least 24 points.
|01-02-20||Boston College +8 v. Cincinnati||Top||6-38||Loss||-110||3 h 59 m||Show|
Boston College vs Cincinnati
3:00 PM EST, Thursday, January 2, 2020
7-Star Wager on the Boston College Eagles
This betting system has earned a 20-11 STS record good for 64.5% winning bets in the 2019 season.
BC is 42-25 ATS when facing an opponent with a 75% or higher win percentage since 2000 including 16-2 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 12 points-per-game when scoring 28 or more points.
|01-01-20||Baylor v. Georgia -4||Top||14-26||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
Baylor vs Georgia
The bet is Georgia as a 7-Star Titan bet and the ‘UNDER’ for a 7-Star Bet. The optional plays for consideration are to bet a no more than a 3-Star amount using the reverse parlay strategy that pays 4:1. If you want the detailed info on how a reverse parlay works please contact me on Twitter at @johnRyanSports1. The other alternative is to bet a 7-Star amount on the 7-point teaser lines that would make Georgia a 3-point underdog and raise the total to 48 points – but both sides must win for the teaser bet to win.
The Georgia Bulldogs are a solid 33-17 against-the-spread (ATS) in road games when facing good rushing teams that are averaging at least 4.75 rushing yards-per-attempt; 11-2 ATS in road games after a game where they forced one or zero turnovers in games played spanning the last three seasons.
Georgia head coach Rhule is 10-1 ‘UNDER’ when facing stromg ball control teams that are averaging at least 32 minutes-per-game in all games he has coached.
|01-01-20||Minnesota v. Auburn -6.5||Top||31-24||Loss||-115||5 h 50 m||Show|
No. 12 Auburn vs No. 19 Minneosta
1:00 PM EST, Wednesday, January 1, 2020
7-Star Wager on the Auburn Tigers
Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix made incredible progress and learned the playbook quickly in his first season. His season stats are not that impressive, but he steadily improved each week. He did not throw an interception over his last four games and only one in the last six games since throwing three interceptions against Florida. The Tigers are a young team and will only be better next season. Sophomore wide receiver Seth Williams is the top target for Nix with 55 catches for 801 yards and eight touchdowns while sophomore JaTarvious Whitlow (739 yards, nine touchdowns) and freshman D.J. Williams (387, two) , who also leads the ground attack.
From the predictive side of things, the Tigers have a high probability of scoring 28 or more points in this matchup. The Tigers are 48-22-3 Against the spread (ATS) when they have scored 28 or more points since 2010; 10-2 ATS last two season; 8-3 ATS in Bowl Games.
The Gophers are just 21-35-2 ATS when allowing an opponent to score 28 or more points since 2010; 3-6-1 ATS the last two seasons; 2-5 ATS in Bowl Games.
Plus, teams playing in bowl games that are favored by seven or more points and are ranked 10 or worse and facing an opponent that is ranked lower (greater than 10) are 6-2 ATS for 75% winning bets.
|12-31-19||Kansas State +3 v. Navy||Top||17-20||Push||0||4 h 4 m||Show|
Kansas State Wildcats vs No. 23 Navy Midshipmen
3:45 PM EST, Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Memorial Stadium, Memphis TN
10-Star Wager on the Kansas State Wildcats
The line for this game opened with the Kansas State Wildcats as a 2-point favorite on December 8. The ‘Pros and Joes’ immediately jumped on Navy and their bets pushed the line to ‘pick’ within the first 24 hours. Within the next day the line was moved another 2-points to its’ current price tag of Navy favored by 2.5 points on the NCAA Football odds board.
Every Bowl season there are few lines that are just not good ones that are put out by the lines makers and this was on eof them this year. The failure was incorrectly anticipating the public consensus for both teams. The betting public does not place bets on the armed forces teams when facing a Major
The books will lose money on this game. The smart money that got Navy as a 2-point dog are now buying back their bets getting the Wildcats as 2.5-point underdogs and giving them a juicy 4.5-point window to win both of their bets. The second problem for the books is that the betting consensus has now shifted in favor of the Wildcats with 53% of the bets on them and 47% on the Midshipmen. So, the books are holding most betting tickets being Navy between a 2-point dog and ‘pick’ and the Wildcats between ‘pick and 2.5 points underdogs.Are There Any Game Breakers?
The Wildcats have the edge over Navy with true freshman Joshua Youngblood, who earned Big-12 Special Teams Player of the Year and has had three returns for touchdowns in his last four games. There is a great chance he will do it again in this game so if you can fid a prop bet that he returns a kick for a touchdown bet on it.
The Wildcats defense is another game breaker as the rank best in the country in third down situations allowing opponent to convert just 25% of the third downs. The unit will look to keep Navy in third and long situations to put even more pressure on Perry to keep the chains moving.A Few Extra Points
· The Wildcats head coach Klieman is 6-0 against-the-spread (ATS) after playing a home game.
· The Midshipmen’s head coach Niumatalolo is 4-13 ATS after outgaining the previous opponent by 225 or more yards.
This money line system has earned a remarkable 77% winning record of 37-11 and has made the $1,000 bettor a huge $31,250 profit over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet against all teams after Week 7 with a money line of +135 to -155 (NAVY in this matchup) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 230 or more rushing-yards-per-game and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 rushing yards-per-game, and after outrushing opponent by at least 125 or more yards I their previous game.
|12-30-19||Illinois +7 v. California||Top||20-35||Loss||-113||4 h 13 m||Show|
Illinois vs California
This situational betting system has earned a solid 35-30 using the Money Line good for 50% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a robust profit of $4,120 over the last 10 seasons. The system requires us to bet on neutral field underdogs that are facing an opponent that has won two out of their last three games in a non-conference matchup. The betting system improves to 18-12 and making $3,380 for the $100 bettor when both teams are from the Power-5 Conferences.
From the predictive side of things, California is a momey-losing 9-24 straight-up (SU) and losing $3,000 per $100 bet when they have been held to between 300 and 350 total yards; 1-6 SU when they gained between 150 and 200 net passing yards in game splayed over the last two seasons.
|12-28-19||Iowa State +4 v. Notre Dame||Top||9-33||Loss||-115||2 h 38 m||Show|
Iowa State vs Notre Dame
The Cyclones are 9-1 against-the-spread (ATS) when the have played an elite level team sporting a win percentage at 75% or higher on the season in games played over the last three seasons; 12-3 ATS when facing a teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points-per-game on the season over the last three seasons.
Notre Dame has been a money-burning 8-20 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games in games played since 1992.
Cyclones head coach Campbell is a solid 15-3 ATS facing teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points-per-game.
|12-28-19||Memphis v. Penn State -7||Top||39-53||Win||100||1 h 9 m||Show|
No. 10 Penn State vs No. 17 Memphis
Memphis had its’ best season in program history winning 12 games, but their success attracted the eyes of the Florida State program and lured head coach Mike Lovell away from Memphis. PSU had another solid season losing only two games and both on the road against then-undefeated teams.
PSU has felt spited as the Rose Bowl selected Wisconsin over PSU despite having three losses and two of them to Ohio State. So, the Nittany Lions will be playing with a purpose to finish the season in the Top-10 rankings and send a message to the Rose Bowl committee.
Here is a great betting system that has earned a solid 40-12 ‘Over’ record for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons. The instructions are to play ‘OVER’ after Week 7 of the regular season including bowl games and playoffs in a game between two teams that are not in the same conference and that are outgaining their opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards-per-play on the season.
Memphis quarterback White struggled in the AAC title game completing a season-low 45 percent of his passes. He has thrown five of his nine interceptions over the past four games and will be facing the toughest defense by far in the PSU Nittany Lions unit. Senior wide receiver Antonio Gibson, who caught the decisive TD pass in the last win, has been utilized more as a runner as the season progressed and rushed 11 times for 130 yards. Junior Damonte Coxie is White's favorite target with 68 catches for 1,144 yards, but will face the toughest corners by far and will have trouble getting separation from them.
The Lions defense is anchored by Parsons had a team-high 95 tackles and junior defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, who declared for the NFL draft, but will suit up for the Cotton Bowl and had 8.5 sacks this season.
Lions are a perfect 7-0 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last two seasons.
From the predictive toolbox the Lions are expected to score at least 28 points and gain more than six yards-per-play. The Lions are 46-10-3 ATS in games in which they scored 28 or mor epoints and gained at least six yards-per-play over the last 10 seasons.
|12-27-19||Washington State +3 v. Air Force||Top||21-31||Loss||-125||6 h 60 m||Show|
Washington State vs Air Force
The Falcons ended the regular season with their third-highest win total in program history and a program that was largely ignored by the media this season.
The Cougar’s Gorden may have extra motivation after being selected to the ALL-PAC-12 second-team despite being the 16th NCAA quarterback to throw for over 5,000 passing yards, the sith-highest in NCAA history with 5,228 passing yards, and the first since some guy named Patrick Mahomes did it in 2016 at Texas Tech.
Both teams cannot replicate the other’s offensive scheme, but I think the Cougars Air-Raid attack scheme is far more difficult for any team to face than a team that runs the triple-option. So, I think the Cougars have a huge edge in that department and they have the superior athleticism with their playmakers over the Falcons defensive unit.
The ‘UNDER’ opened at 67 and the “Pros and Joes” have been steadily pushing the total up to higher levels with 70 points now appearing at several sportsbooks. However, I lean as a contrarian and would make a bet on the ‘UNDER’ at a price tag of 71-points. And if it hits that level I would recommend a bet of no higher than 3-star using the money line on Washington State and the ‘UNDER’ 71-points or higher.
The Falcons are 9-25 against-the-spread facing terrible defensive teams allowing 450 or more yards-per-game in the current season. Cougars are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 in games played over the last three seasons; 11-2 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games over the last three seasons; 32-12 ATS 32-12 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game.
From the predictive side, the machine learning summaries calls for the Cougars to score 31 or more points. IN past games when they did score 31 or mor epoints they went 123-44-1 ATS for 74% winning bets and 38-19 ATS under head coach Mike Leach.
|12-26-19||Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||34-30||Loss||-110||56 h 25 m||Show|
Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan
The Panther’s scoring defense ranked 31stallowing an average of 21.8 points per game and is led by All-ACC first team performers defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman (10.5 sacks, most by a Pitt DT since Aaron Donald had 11 in 2013) and safety Paris Ford (team-high 86 tackles, three interceptions, 14 passes defensed and three forced fumbles).
Simply, Pittsburgh is the better team on both sides of the ball and the machine learning projections are looking for Pitt to win this game by at least 17 points.
Pittsburgh will score at least 28 points in this game and are 123-62-4 ATS when they have done so; 9-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. EMU is 63-135-4 ATS when they have allowed 28 or more points; 3-10-1 ATS since the start of the 2017 season.
|12-24-19||BYU -1.5 v. Hawaii||Top||34-38||Loss||-110||12 h 48 m||Show|
BYU Cougars vs Hawaii Warriors
It has been more than 20 years since these two teams were bitter rivals in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) and this game marks the first time they have ever met in the postseason. The Rainbows had a great season where they reached the Mountain West Championship Game, but lost 31-10 to Boise State. BYU gave Boise State their only loss of this season.
The Cougars, who used three different starting quarterbacks this season due to injury, averaged 40 points-per-game during a five-game winning streak. However, that streak was snapped when they were limited to a season-low total in a 13-3 loss at San Diego State on Nov. 30. Zach Wilson, who committed three turnovers to offset a season-high 316 yards passing in the season finale, has three receivers with at least 40 receptions, with tight end Matt Bushman averaging 14.6 yards and scoring four times on 41 catches.
Linebacker Kavika Fonua has recorded a team-high 78 tackles for an opportunistic defense that tied for ninth in the nation with 15 interceptions and forced 22 turnovers to rank 18th overfall.
Looking at the numbers from our trusted database we notice that despite winning seven of their 12 games they covered the spread in just four of them. Teams playing in the post season that covered four or fewer games on the season and come into the game having not covered the spread in at least four of their previous games and coming off a straight-up (SU) loss have earned a solid 16-8 ATS for 67% winning bets.
Rainbows are a terrible 2-10 ATS when facing good passing teams that have completed 58% or more of their pass attempts in games played over the last three seasons; 0-6 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 250 or more passing-yards-per-game in games played over the last three seasons; 1-8 ATS facing offenses that have averaged at least 6.0 yards-per-play in game splayed over the last two seasons.
Take the BYU Cougars.
|12-21-19||Washington -3 v. Boise State||Top||38-7||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
Boise State vs Washington
So, with Peterson leaving Washington and playing against the Broncos, which is the team he had previously coached qnd facing their head coach Bryan Harsin, whow worked for him for 10 seasons has its own storylines.
Junior quarterback Jacob Eason could opt for the NFL draft after the game and has passed for 2,922 yards, 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions during his first season as a college starter since 2016 at Georgia. Senior offensive tackle Trey Adams and junior tight end Hunter Bryant are skipping the game to protect against injury Junior running back Salvon Ahmed has 1,000 yards on the ground and has produced four 100-yard outings. Junior free safety Elijah Molden has a team-best 70 tackles and his three interceptions are tied with freshman cornerback Cameron Williams for the team lead while sophomore outside linebacker Joe Tryon has racked up a team-high eight sacks.
Peterson is 14-5 ATS in road games when facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards-per-game. as the coach of Washington; 20-8 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better in all games he has coached in his career.
My Machine learning tools see a very high probability that Washington will score more than 28 points in this matchup. When they do they have gone 39--3 straight-up and 28-13-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|12-20-19||Buffalo v. Charlotte +6.5||Top||31-9||Loss||-105||6 h 54 m||Show|
The Bahamas Bowl
This is the first Bowl Game of the season and one that I expect to be entertaining and played well by these teams. This Bowl game started in 2014 and was called the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl, in which Western Kentucky defeated Central Michigan 49-48. The 49 points scored by Western Kentucky remains the Bowl record
The Charlotte 49ers play in the East Division of C-USA and earned a 7-5 record by winning their last five games of the regular season. The 49ers went an even 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and the ‘OVER’ won the money in eight of their 12 games. Their first-year head coach Will Healy absorbed the growing pains at the start of the season has them playing at their best right now and is a reason I like them as a Best Bet.
The 49ers had two huge wins during their five-game win streak. In Week 10 they shocked Middle Tennessee State 34-20 and were lined as 2.5-point home underdogs. In Week 13 they played their best game of the season in a 24-13 win over Marshall and were lined as 6.5-point home underdogs. As a home underdog they went a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS so they relish the role they find themselves in for this Bowl game.
In a twist of fate, I suppose we have two teams that at the Pro levels have the same team name with only the Buffalo Bulls missing the ‘I’ in Bills. The Bulls play as a member of the East Division in the MAC Conference and earned a 7-5 record this season. They rewarded their bettors with a 7-5 ATS record and the ‘OVER’ bet also went 8-4 on the season.
The Bulls had two huge wins this season in which they covered the spread by 28 points. In Week 4 they pounded Temple 38-22 and were 12-point home underdogs. In Week 10 they dominated Eastern Michigan 43-14 and were lined as a 1-point road favorite.Here is a Terrific Betting System to Track for Seasons to Come
This NCAA football betting system has earned a 38-10 ATS record good for 79.2% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on underdogs of 3 to 10 points after having won four or more of their last six games SU and have a win percentage between 51% and 60% on the season.
This system will track teams that are on winning runs later in the season. A team cannot lose four of their first six games and have a win percentage between 51 and 60% on the season. The system aligns with the positive momentum I like to see a team have that I bet on in the early bowl games.A Few Extra Points
· Bulls head coach Leipold is 0-6 ATS in road games after outrushing the previous opponent by 125 or more yards.
· 49ers are a solid 10-2 ATS after playing three consecutive conference games spanning the last three seasons of play.
|12-07-19||Virginia v. Clemson -28.5||Top||17-62||Win||100||3 h 56 m||Show|
7:30 PM EST, December 8, 2019
7-Star Titan on the Clemson Tigers
THIS SITUATIONAL QUERY HAS EARNED A SOLID 35-12-3 ATS MARK GOOD FOR 75% WINNING PICKS SINCE 2000. THE REQUIREMENTS ARE TO PLAY ON FAVORITES OF 21.5 TO 31 POINTS THAT ARE AVERAGING 200 OR MORE RUSHING YARDS-PER-GAME ON THE SEASON AND HAVE ALLOWED 125 OR FEWER RUSHING YARDS IN THREE CONSECUTIVE GAMES.
THE FOLLOWING PRECEDENTS MATCH THE PROJECTIONS FROM THE MACHINE LEARNING RESULTS.
•The Tigers are a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
•The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
•The Tigers are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
|12-07-19||Georgia +7.5 v. LSU||Top||10-37||Loss||-110||5 h 33 m||Show|
10-Star On Georgia
NCAAM: Georgia vs LSU
4:00 PM EST, December 7, 2019
Some quick Hitters:
From the predictive side we learn that Georgia is 20-6 ATS over the last three seasons and 126-56 ATS over the last 25 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. LSU is just 18-60 ATS when allowing 28 or more points over the last 25 seasons.
Georgia is 47-25 ATS when gaining at least 135 RY and scoring 35 or more points and 145-7 ATS over the last three seasons.
The betting system has earned 77% winning bets on a 36-11 ATS record and instructs us to play on Neutral field underdogs outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards-per-game on the season.
|12-07-19||Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5||Top||23-30||Loss||-110||1 h 3 m||Show|
12:00 PM EST, December 7, 2019
7-Star Titan on the Oklahoma Sooners
This situational query has earned a solid 45-15 ATS mark good for 75% winning picks since 2000. The requirements are to play on any team that is playing a game in December after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in total over their last five games. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last three seasons.
The following precedents match the projections from the machine learning results.
· The Sooners are 80-41 ATS when gaining at least nine yards-per-pass attempt.
o 58-24 ATS when they have gained a minimum of 10 yards-per-pas attempt.
o Bears are a 12-39 ATS when allo1ing 10 or more passing yards-per-attempt.
· The Sooners are 149-87 ATS when scoring 28 or more points.
o Bears are just 61-123 ATS when allowing 28 or more points.
|12-06-19||Oregon v. Utah -6.5||Top||37-15||Loss||-114||8 h 45 m||Show|
Oregon vs Utah
LEVI'S STADIUM - SANTA CLARA, CA8:00 PM EST, December 6, 2019
10-Star Titan on the Utah UItes
Let us get right to the meat and potatoes portion of this game.
· Utes are 7-0 ATS when facing below average passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse this season.
· Utes are 30-15 ATS in road games facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better on the season.
· Utes are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games this season.
· Whittingham is 22-3 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in three straight games as the coach of UTAH.
|11-30-19||Alabama v. Auburn +4||Top||45-48||Win||100||5 h 24 m||Show|
Alabama vs Auburn
This situational query has earned an outstanding 35-8-5 ATS record for 80 % winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Play on home teams from week 7 on that are averaging 190 to 230rushing yards per game and coming off a game where they allowed fewer than 100 RY and are facing an average rushing opponent that gains an average of 140 to 190 per game on the season.
A few more Extra Points:
These precedents all match the Machine learning projections.
|11-30-19||Wisconsin -1 v. Minnesota||Top||38-17||Win||100||27 h 40 m||Show|
Wisconsin vs Minnesota
7-Star bet on the Wisconsin Badgers
This is the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, but there is heck of a lot more on the line than just the award. The winner will move on to play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and a pair of touchdowns to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a touchdown in the win over the Boilermakers to gain 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his illustrious career. Further, he has gained 200 or more yards in three consecutive games.
Safety Collin Wilder will miss the first half against Minnesota after he was ejected for targeting against the Boilermakers. So, I am not concerned one bit about this fact and the Wisconsin defense will play well despite his absence.
These precedents match the projections form the summary Machine learning tools.
Badgers are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.
Badgers under head coach Chryst is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of Wisconsin.
The machine learning tools show overwhelming results that the Badgers will score at least 28 points. They are 6-1 ATS this season, 18-7 ATS the last three seasons, and 127-51 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points.
|11-30-19||Ohio State -8 v. Michigan||Top||56-27||Win||100||2 h 0 m||Show|
Ohio State vs Michigan
This situational query has earned an outstanding 35-8-5 ATS record for 80 % winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Play on home teams from week 7 on that are averaging 190 to 230rushing yards per game and coming off a game where they allowed fewer than 100 RY and are facing an average rushing opponent that gains an average of 140 to 190 per game on the season.
The talent gap between Ohio State and Michigan is reflected in the Buckeyes winning 16 of the last 18 against the Wolverines. Ohio State enters this year's game with a 17-game overall winning streak and a seven-game win streak against Michigan. By all indications, Jim Harbaugh will have a tough time beating Ohio State for the first time in his five seasons as Wolverines coach. Ohio State has crushed its opponents this year and handled its biggest challenge to date last week in a 28-17 victory over No. 12 Penn State.
From the machine learning projections:
|11-30-19||Holy Cross v. Monmouth -6||Top||27-44||Win||100||1 h 29 m||Show|
Holy Cross vs Monmouth
This situational betting system has earned a solid 44-22 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. Play against road underdogs of 5 to 11.5 points that are coming off a double digit conference win and facing an opponent that has won their last three consecutive conference games. The machine learning summary projections match the following precedents.
The Bonus plays are to bet ON WOFFORD and to Bet on Albany
|11-29-19||Washington State v. Washington -6.5||Top||13-31||Win||100||3 h 58 m||Show|
Washington State vs Washington
This is the battle for the Apple Cup. Both teams had higher aspirations than this winning this state-rivalry game as both teams have underachieved preseason expectations of a PAC-12 crown. Yet, this will make the recruiting and state bragging rights even more powerful for the winner of this game.
This situational betting system has earned a solid 49-16 record betting the UNDER since 2015. The requirements are to bet UNDER with a home team and a total of at least 5.5 goals that are revenging a loss to the opponent and has a winning record on the season and with the game taking place in the first half of the season.
WSU is just 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.
|11-23-19||Oregon v. Arizona State +13.5||Top||28-31||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
Arizona State vs Oregon
This situational betting system has earned a 26-10 record using the money line for 72% SU winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play against a road team using the money line in a matchup of two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards-per-pass and are coming off a game where they allowed 4.5 or fewer passing yards-per-attempt.
If the team is coming off a game where they allowed the opponent 5.3 or fewer yards-per-pass play provides more betting opportunities and a solid 77-43 record for 66% winning bets and has made $5,3560 per $100 bet over the last five seasons.
|11-23-19||Texas A&M v. Georgia -12.5||Top||13-19||Loss||-110||8 h 7 m||Show|
NCAA: Georgia vs Texas A&M
3:30 PM EST, November 23, 2019
This situational query has earned a solid 54-18 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and is an outstanding 13-1 ATS this season. The requirements are to play on a home team after Week 7 that is a very good rushing team averaging 190 to 240 RYPG and is coming off a game where their defense allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards and is now facing an opponent that averages 140 to 190 RYPG on the season.
Georgia has already won the SEC East, but the Bulldogs must nevertheless avoid a stumble here before they play for the conference title against LSU. The Aggies, who still must take on LSU next week to close out their regular season schedule.
The Bulldogs dominated last week for three quarters but needed a final stop late in the game before winning at Auburn. QB Jake Fromm was able to make enough plays against the Tigers’ stingy defense. He figures to have an easier time this week, though top WR Lawrence Cager aggravated a shoulder injury and might be limited in today’s game. Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond and RB Isaiah Spiller might have their hands full against the Georgia defense, which finally allowed its first rushing TD of the season late last week but still knows how to control gaps.
Georgia will dominate on both sides of this game and the machine learning projections call for a bug win here. Georgia is projected to score at least 28 points and are 125-56 ATS when doing so and 19-6 ATS over the last three seasons. They are 30-9 ATS when they have scored 35 to 42 points. A&M is 5-28 ATS when allowing 35 to 42 points in a game.
|11-23-19||Penn State +19.5 v. Ohio State||Top||17-28||Win||100||4 h 57 m||Show|
7-Star Penn State over Ohio State
The largest margin of victory ahs been 49 points with each team doing it once. The Lions won by 49 points on October 26, 2013 and the Buckeyes won by 49 points on October 29, 1994. In these games each team scored the most points in this matchup with 63 points.
The longest win streak by the Buckeyes has been four games and three games for the Lions.What Is at Stake?
The winner of this game will advance to the College Football Playoffs. I know I am one of the few and to be honest I feel lonely out here making such a bold statement that the Lions will win this game. To me, it is not that bold a statement.
I had thought that a line of 11 to 12 points is what the opening line would be. I was shocked to see it at 18 points and immediately realized that this was only reflecting public sentiment. The Buckeyes are 10-0 and have earned an 8-2 record against the spread (ATS). They failed to cover against the two weakest opponents they faced in Florida Atlantic in Week 1 and Big Ten foe Rutgers in Week 13. So, it is the normal betting behavior to jump on the team that is winning games and covering spreads.How Can Penn State Win?
The Lions offense is quite good and is led by sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford, who leads the Big Ten gaining 2.824 total yards. He is second in passing yards with 2,450 yards and trails Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan by only 18 passing yards for the top spot.The Lions Defense Will Win This Game
The Lions run defense is the best in the Big Ten and on eof the best – if not the best – in the nation allowing only 2.2 yards-per-attempt. By stopping the Buckeyes on first down and forcing them into second-and-long situations will allow the Lions pass rush to get put immense pressure on the offensive line. Shaka Toney has 6.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles-for-loss and Yeter Gross-Matos has 6.0 sacks and is the team-leader with 10 tackles-for-loss.What Does the Database Have to Share?
The Lions are 6-0 ATS when facing the absolute best rushing teams in the nation that Have averaged 230 or more yards-per-game in games played over the last three seasons.
The Lions are 7-0 ATS off a push or ATS loss when the team won the game as a favorite in game splayed over the last three seasons.
Head Coach Franklin is 13-2 ATS off a push or ATS loss when the team won as a favorite including all games he has coached (Vanderbilt and Penn State).
Play an additional 2-Star amount on the money line! Just in case.
|11-23-19||Illinois v. Iowa -14.5||Top||10-19||Loss||-110||21 h 48 m||Show|
Illinois vs Iowa (Big Ten Football)
This situational betting system has earned a solid 32-12 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in a game between to average teams posting yards-per-play differentials between -0.6 and 0.6 YPP and are coming a game in which they were outgained by 125 or more yards.
The machine learning summary projections call for Iowa to score at least 30 points and gain a minimum of 450 total yards. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections they have earned a remarkable 23-5 ATS for 82% winning bets and hav e covered the spread by an average of 12 points.
When Illinois has been the team that allowed these measures they have ended up a money-burning 10-29-1 ATS for just 25% winning bets.
|11-19-19||Ohio -20 v. Bowling Green||Top||66-24||Win||100||27 h 45 m||Show|
Ohio University vs Bowling Green
This situational betting system has earned a 30-5 ATS record good for 86% winning NFL bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight-up losses and has a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season.
Here is a second betting system that has earned a 41-19 ATS record good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play against home underdogs of 14.5 or more points after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games in a game occurring in Weeks 10 to 13.
Ohio University is expected to easily score 28 or more points. They are 93-36 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and 43-19-2 ATS as a home favorite.
|11-16-19||UCLA v. Utah -21||Top||3-49||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
UCLA vs Utah
From the machine learning projections, Utah will score at least 42 points. UCLA is 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-24 ATS over the last 25 seasons when they have allowed 42 or more points. Utes are 64-8 ATS over the last 25 seasons and 4-0 ATS the last three seasons when scoring 42 or more points.
This situational query has earned an outstanding 52-17-2 for 75% winning picks. The requirements are to play on a team that is a solid rushing team gaining between 190 and 230 RYPG and are coming off a game where they allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards, and are now facing an opponent that is averaging between 140 to 190 RYPG on the season.
|11-16-19||Navy +7.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||20-52||Loss||-110||4 h 8 m||Show|
7-Star on Navy as they take on host Notre Dame
The Midshipmen have won five consecutive games and covered the spread in four out of the five. Their last loss was at Memphis losing 35-22 and failed to cover the spread as 11-point road underdogs.
Notre Dame is 7-2 with the two losses against ranked teams in Georgia and Michigan, but their wins have been against mostly weak football programs. So, I do not believe the Irish are as good as their 7-2 record indicates. They have a higher strength-of-schedule than Navy, but that is mostly because they played and lost to Georgia and Michigan.
Navy runs the ball and then they run it more. The Irish allowed Michigan to gash them for 303 rushing yards on 57 attempts in 45-14 loss back on October 26. The Midshipmen are the best running team in the nation averaging 358.3 rushing yards-per-game on the season. So, I believe that Navy will run wild on a suspect Notre Dame run defense.What Does the Database Have to Share?
This situational query or betting system as some call them has earned a 40-13 against the spread (ATS) record good for 75% winning NCAAF picks over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in Weeks 10 through 13 that have covered three out of their last four games.
2-11 ATS in home games when facing offenses designed for the run (triple option) and average 125 or fewer passing yards-per-game.
|11-16-19||Alabama v. Mississippi State +19.5||Top||38-7||Loss||-105||4 h 56 m||Show|
7-Star Mississippi State
NCAAF: Alabama vs Miss State
12:00 PM EST, November 16, 2019
This is an upset alert special situation in this matchup. Alabama knows they are going to need a lot of help to get to their sixth CFP. That help could come later today when Auburn takes on Georgia in a huge SEC game with major CFP implications. I believe this is a game where Alabama will be pushed to the limits just to get out of Starkville with a win.
This situational query has earned a solid 81-37 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 23-10-3 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) after Week 7 that is a good rushing team averaging between 190 and 230 rushing yards-per-game and after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game and are facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 rushing yards-per-game.
This betting system is 6-0 ATS this season and 16-4 ATS the past three seasons.
|11-09-19||LSU +6.5 v. Alabama||Top||46-41||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
7-Star on No. 1 LSU as they take on No. 2 Alabama
November 9, 2019
Whether you look at the CFP rankings that have LSU No. 2 and ‘Bama No. 3 or the AP poll that has LSU first and ‘Bama second, this is a Game of the Century and ranks right up there with the excitement of a Game-7.
My research shows that LSU has the potential to shred the Bama defense and score 35 or more points. LSU is43-18 ATS in games in which they passed for 10 or more yards-per-attempt; 31-11 ATS when they have gained 500 or more total yards; and 64-28 ATS when they have gained a minimum of 6.0 yards-per-play.
Whether Tua plays or not it will not matter as LSU head Coach Orgeron is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing an elite passing team that is averaging 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt.
Bama is just 14-45 ATS and 1-5 ATS the last three seasons when allowing 28 or more points; 9-26 ATS when both teams score 28 or more points, and 2-8 ATS when they have allowed 500 or more offensive yards.
|11-09-19||Florida State +3 v. Boston College||Top||38-31||Win||100||16 h 35 m||Show|
Florida State vs Boston College
12:00 PM EST, November 9, 2019
10-Star on FSU
This is the first of many plays that will be released very early Saturday morning so be sure to come back and get on board a 15-4 ATS winning run.
Boston College was on eof my three upset alerts that went 2-0-1 SATS last week. They throttled Syracuse, who I, like many others, thought the ‘Cuse was going to be a solid team and one that would contend for a New Years Day Bowl Game.
BC gained a school record 691 total yards of offense and gashed the ‘Cuse for 496 rushing yards. I have always looked for teams that are performing at unsustainable levels that are playing against a teamj desperate for a win. The ‘Noles are certainly desperate. So desperate that they departed ways with their head coach Willie Taggert, who also took $18 million with him in his departure. Man would I like that gig! Even Steve Jobs didn’t get that kind of dismissal from Apple Computer and he was the founder.
This situational query has earned an outstanding 73-30-2 for 70% winning picks. The requirements are to play against home teams where the line is between a 3-point dog and a 3-point favorite, that has a struggling defense allowing 17 or more points in the first-half and after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.
|11-09-19||Penn State -6.5 v. Minnesota||Top||26-31||Loss||-109||5 h 49 m||Show|
No.5 Penn State over No. 13 Minnesota
10-Star bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions
A High-Noon showdown between two of the three undefeated Big Ten Conference schools.
Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan has been improving each week as the quarterback of the Gophers, but has not seen a pass rush like what PSU will bring to the table. The key though is not sacks or QB pressures by themselves, but containing RB Rodney Smith who has 5 consecutive 100+ rushing games. The Gophers are 15-1 SU when he rushes for 100+ yards in his career, which started in 2014.
PSU is second in scoring defense and first in the nation allowing just 2.2 rushing yards-per-game. No matter how you cut it, the Gophers offense will surprise the heck out of me, if they are able to sustain a long time-consuming scoring drive against the Lions defensive unit. The absence of a running game will turn the pass rush loose for the Lions making it immensely difficult to move the chains.
PSU head coach Franklin is 16-4 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals; 12-2 ATS off a road win; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.
This situational query has earned a 72-34 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play against any team after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record.
|11-08-19||Central Florida v. Tulsa +17.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
7-Star on Tulsa as they take on UCF in AAC action
November 8, 2019
Last night we went 2-0 with Temple defeating USF 17-7 as a ‘pick-em’ or perhaps you got +1. The second win was the Oakland Raiders, who are now 5-4 on the season and steadily becoming a team to be reckoned with as the season moves in to the second-half.
This is an upset alert type of play. On appear it is a long shot to be sure that Tulsa could pull off the upset, but there is value in assuming that risk for this bet. Tulsa is +630 on the money line and many of the 35 sportsbooks I monitor.
So, consider betting a 5.5-star amount getting the 17 points and then bet 1.5-Stars on the money line – just in case they do pull off the shocking upset. I never know when these upsets will occur, but I do know I have at least one of them in each years over the past 10 seasons.
Tulsa may be just 2-7, but they have played a extremely difficult schedule. Tulsa has posted a 36 SOS for the season while UCF has a much weaker 25 SOS. Penn State, Alabama, LSU, and Ohio State all have had SOS ratings between 35 and 38 by way of comparison. So, Tulsa is battle-tested and I expect them to bring their best to this game tonight
This situational betting query has earned a 34-20-1 record for 63% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet against road favorites of 15 to 23 points that have out gained their opponents by at least 125 yards-per-game on the season and have averaged at least 525 total yards over their last two games.
|11-02-19||New Mexico +4 v. Nevada||Top||10-21||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
New Mexico over Nevada
10-Star bet on the New Mexico Lobos.
Lobos is a resilient 10-2 ATS in road games following a gem in which they trailed by 24 or more points at the half. Head Coach Davie is 13-2 ATS in road games when facing a struggling defensive unit that has allowed 31 or more PPG.
Here is a betting system that has earned a solid 42-12 record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have a struggling defensive unit that is allowing an average of 6.1 yards-per-play and are coming off a solid offensive game in which they gained 475 or more total offensive yards.
Nevada may be 3-5 but is a highly questionable one when you see that they lost 77-6 to Oregon, 54-3 to Hawaii, 36-10 at Utah State, and 31-3 at Wyoming. Their four wins have been earned against Weber State 19-13, at UTEP 37-21, San Jose State 41-38. Based on the research I strongly believe that the Lobos offense will have no difficulty scoring 28 or more points in this contest and walk off the field a winner.
Lobos is a solid 19-6 ATS and 15-10 SU when on the road as an underdog of not more than 9.5 points and has scored 28 or more points.
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