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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-11 | Brown v. Dartmouth UNDER 131 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
The Dartmouth Big Green does not do a whole lot of winning, but what they have done is quietly run a methodical "Princeton" type offense, that limits possessions in every game they play especially at home. This year has been no exception as their 3 home games have all gone under averaging a total of 117.7ppg. Last year in their 7 home games the total points in Ivy League play averaged 117.4ppg. Back in the 2008-09 season the average points scored in their Ivy home games was 119.1ppg. Just 3 of their last 18 have topped the tyotal posted here for this one, and overall the Big Green has played under to a 16-2 mark over their last 18 at home. I like the under in this one.
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02-11-11 | Princeton v. Columbia UNDER 135 | Top | 76-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
The Princeton Tigers are back. They are 17-4 on the season and have opened Ivy play at 5-0. despite the fact they are scoring a few more points than the usual Princeton teams we have come to know, the shots taken in their 5 Ivy games has averaged just 102 a game not including overtime. Columbia has seen an average of just 113 shots taken in their 6 Ivy contests, but 5 have come on the road. These teams will likely finish the night with about 100 shots taken, which means a total in the mid 130s range is going to be a monumental task. Columbia has played under at home to a mark of 19-3 in their last 22 home games, including 7-0 to the under in the 130s. I like the under in this one.
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02-08-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Houston Rockets OVER 217.5 | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
The Houston Rockets are averaging just shy of 105ppg which puts them in 4th place in NBA scoring offense standings. The Minnesota Timberwolves come in with the 9th ranked scoring offernse. The problem for Minnesota is as good an offensive team Denver is who leads the league in scoring, Minnesota is worse hgiving up points, as they allow 108.6ppg. Houston may score a llot but they are equally bad on the defensive end allowing just shy of 105ppg. It doesn't happen often but teams that have played 5 straight unders and are playing to a total of 215 or higher are 8-2 to the over in their next game. This game also fits a situation that has over 300 plays in it that is well over 60% that calls for this one to go over. I'll play this game over the total.
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02-07-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 203.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The Cleveland Cavs have gone 0-24 in their last 24 games. This is a team that has quit on the defensive end as they have alowed 100 points or more in 20 of their last 21, to an average of 110ppg. Their last 19 have seen them top the total in 14 of them. The offense has now scored more than 100 points a game in 3 straight, a season high. The Mavs have now toppd the century mark in 7 straight games, and are 21-10 to the over in their last 31. Cavs ahve gone 20-8 to the over in their last 28 on the road vs a team with a winning record, while the Mavs are 19-7 to the over in their last 26 vs the NBA Central. Over gets the call.
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02-04-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Toronto Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
We have a situation here tonight in Minnesota that features a pair of bad teams that have each played 3 conscutive unders. We also have a raher high total, so the first inclination is to play this one under. The problem with that thinking is that games between teams with losing records and both teams on current under streaks of 3 or more, and the total is set high, at over 210, these teams have never played an under as they are 8-0 to the OVER. The T-Wolves are also 21-9 to the over follwing a double-digit loss. I'll play on the over in this one.
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02-03-11 | Pacific v. Cal Santa Barbara OVER 122 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos went 6 games without any team getting to 70 points, but the last 2 they have coughed up 70 in each of them. The Pacific Tigers through their first 14 games vs div-1 competition managed to score 70 points just 2 times, but in their last 5 have averaged 75.2ppg. It is clear this team has caught fire on the offensive end. The Tigers have now played 4 straight to the over. Santa Barbara has now played 6 of their last 8 to the over following an ATS loss. I like this one to go over the total.
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02-03-11 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Golden State Warriors OVER 201 | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
The Golden St. Warriors aren't the type of team that plays much on the defensive end of the court. They have really done well as a home favorite dictating the tempo of the game which has led them to a 166-121 in all games as a home favorite going over the total. Milwaukee is off a poor offensive performance where they scored under 80. That sets up one of my strongest over systems which is 157-109 all-time, and on a 63-31 run to the over. I'll play this one over the total.
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02-03-11 | Miami Heat v. Orlando Magic UNDER 195.5 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Many thought the Miami Heat would be unstoppable on the offensive end with LeBron,Wade, and Bosh, but what has surprised is the fact the Heat has become a better defensive team than offensive team. They have allowed 100 points just 10 times on the season not counting overtime. The Magic bring in some prolific under numbers as they are 37-18 under after a loss, 33-16-2 under after 2 days rest,37-17-1 under after allowing 100 or more, and 53-23-1 under after an ATS loss. I'll back the under in this one
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02-03-11 | Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 129.5 | Top | 53-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
The Ohio St. Buckeyes had a narrow escape in their last game at Northwestern where they won a thriller 58-57 to go to 22-0 on the season, and remain the nations only unbeaten team. The Buckeyes have gone 20 straight games without allowing an opponent 70 points, and have actually held 7 opponents in the 40s. Michigan has scored 64 or less in 7 of their last 8, will struggled to find 50-55 here. Michigan is now 29-12-1 to the under in their last 42 road games, and 25-11-1 to the under on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Under gets the call.
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02-02-11 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The Portland Trailblazers like to play slow and get their opponent in a halfcourt game. Denver likes to get out and run and leads the league in scoring. Portland has willed their hlfcourt game successfully against high scoring teams, even on the road, as they have now played to a 20-7 mark to the under on the road with a total of 200 or higher. The Nuggets have played 64% of their games this season with a posted total of 205 or less to the under, and going back to the end of last season 71%. I like this one under the total.
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02-02-11 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 200 | Top | 87-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The Atlanta Hawks have played over as a 10.5 home favorite to a 34-16 mark since 1995. This is a team that likes to get out and run the floor when facing a sub-par opponent. That mark includes a most recent run of 12-3 to the over. The Raptors have now allowed 100+ points to 14 of the last 16 teams they have faced on the season, and 8 straight. Theyhave also played 36-15 to the over vs a team with a home winning percentage of over .600. The Hawks now 17-6 to the over in their last 23 vs a team under .500 on the season. This series is 18-7 to the over in the last 25 meetings, and 6-1 to the over in the last 7 at Atlanta. Over is the play.
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01-29-11 | Wisconsin v. Penn State UNDER 121.5 | Top | 52-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
This is another one of those games where both teams play a methodical offense, and great defense on the otherend. Both these teams take less than 55 shots per contest, making it difficult for scores to get out of the 50s, especially matched up against another team that likes to slow things down and play defense. Nittany Lions already 5-3 to the under in conference play, and 3-1 at home. Badgers a mindblowing 43-15-1 to the under following an ATS win, as well as being 20-9-1 to the under in their last 30 posted as a favorite. Penn St. 8-2 under in their last 10 at home, and the under has prevailed in 4 of the last 5 between these clubs. I'll go with the under in this one.
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01-28-11 | Cornell v. Dartmouth UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
I have had a lot of success in the Ivy League over the years, and one reason is that while most don't pay a lot of attention to this league, and others know it as a league to play on Princeton and Penn, and mst recently Cornell, and every other team is washed below the radar. That may be true, but the value lies within some of those other teams, most noteably Dartmouth. The Big Green is usually found buried at the bottom of the Ivy standings, and what may be a surprise, is over the years this team slows games down more than Princeton, especially at home, and especially when Ivy League play begins. This is a team at home that more often than not produces less than 100 shots a game, and while that is very similar to Princeton, their totals are found in the 120s instead of the 100s. Their track record this year is already showing the bias at 5-1 to the under, and the Ivy hme track record is now 17-5 to the under. I will go with this one under the total as my January GAME OF THE MONTH!
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01-27-11 | Miami Heat v. New York Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Miami Heat have a trio of stars and when they are all on the court, it isn't the offense that these guys are playing, it is their commitment to defense. The heat in their last 33 games have seen just 4 of them reach 210 points, and James was out for one of them. The Knicks after allowing 100 or more in their previous game have played under to a 8-1-1 mark in their last 10. The Knicks in 2 games this season vs the Heat have average 94.5ppg, and I don't expect to see them making it much beyond that for this one. I'll go with the under in this one.
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01-26-11 | Creighton v. Northern Iowa UNDER 121 | Top | 66-71 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
The Northern Iowa Panthers lost some key weapons from a year ago, but have still put together a 15-6 season, and are always tough at home where they are 10-1. The Panthers have won 5 straight games overall. It is their methodical offensive style, along with a suffocating defense that gets it done. The Panthers in their 11 home games have allowed just 53.8ppg, and just 1 of the 11 games has seen the opponent top 58. Creighton steps up the "D" vs good teams where they have logged a 21-6-1 mark to the under in their last 28 vs a team with a winning percentage of over .600. Panthers meanwhile are now 29-12 to the under after a win. Throw in a situational angle that is 26-4 to the under and I like this one under the total.
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01-23-11 | NY Jets v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 42 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Steelers had an anomolus defensive game vs the Ravens last week. They held Baltimore to 126 total yards, but allowed 24 points. That is a ridiculous 5.25 yards per point, which simply isn't a realistic expectation. The Steelers themselves were limited to 263 yards but scored 31. That means a pair of teams with a combined offensive output of less than 400 yards scored 55 points. Throw that one out, as it does not offer any predictive value on points scored, other than the fact that the Steeler defense is rugged and tough. The Jets bring a bit of their own savvy on defense, they just held the 2 top QB's in the NFL to a combined 38 points on the road. If you doubt that consider the fact that the last 3 opponents that have come to Pittsburgh when Troy Palamalu has been in the lineup have rushed 48 times for 130 yards, and passed 105 times with 6 INT's and 347 total yards at 3.3 yards per attempt. The Jets offense hasn't seen a lot of very good defenses but 9 points and no TD's vs Baltimore, and 0 points vs Green Bay open some eyes, and a Pittsburgh defense without Palamalu saw the offene sputter to 13. That is 3 games 3 top defenses and 22 points for the Jets. I look for this one to come in under the total.
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01-22-11 | Tennessee v. Connecticut UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
The Uconn Huskies have surprised a lot of people with their 15-2 record. This team is comprised of 8 freshmen, and many are key contributors. They also possess a major weapon in Kemba Walker, the most improved player in the country, and certainly putting together an All-American season. It is the defense and rebounding that make this team special. Huskies 12th in the nation in rebound margin at +7.6 despite playng 5 of the top 16 rebounding teams in the country. The Huskies block a lot of shots, and allow just 38% shooting also 8th i the county. The Vols are no slouches off the glass either ranked 21st in the country and allow just 41% from the floor. Their last 5 games vs BCS Conference teams has seen an average of just 129 points scored per game (excluding overtime), while the Huskies all season are averaging just 135 vs BCS Conference teams. Huskies 8-3 under last 11 at home, and Vols now 24-11-1 to the under on the road vs a home team with a winning percentage of over .600. I'll play under in this one.
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01-21-11 | Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics OVER 194.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The Boston Celtics have opened up their lead as the top team in the NBA East at 32-9. Boston has been a bit more offensive of late, a game the Jazz will oblige, and I expect this one to top the 200 point mark. Last 3 for the C's vs the West have produced an average of 210.7 total points on average. The Jazz playing as a road dog have now produced a 43-21 mark to the over, while the Celtics at 35-16-1 to the over as a home favorite of 5-10.5. This series has been dominated by high scoring games, with a 14-5-1 mark to the over in the last 20, which includes 4-1-1 at the Garden, to the over. Boston 6-1 last 7 to the over. This also fits a huge system of mine that plays over on certain teams after a very low scoring game, which has gone 84-37 to the over the last 14 years and is 7-3 to the over this year. Over gets the call.
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01-19-11 | Indiana Pacers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
The Golden St. Warriors certainly don't pay attention to defense. They love to run up and down the court especially at home, where they simply just try to outscore their opponent. The Warrior in their last 47 games facing a total at home of less than 216, have remarkably gone 36-10-1 to the over. The Pacers have picked their spots to run, and when facing a team with a losing record they are 11-2 to the over in their last 13. Warriors have also played 7 straight to the over at home, with 6 of the last 8 meetings between these clubs going over. I'll play on this one to go over the total.
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01-19-11 | Phoenix Suns v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
The Cleveland Cavs have allowed 100+ points in 10 straight games, while they have failed to top the 100 mark in any of the 10 games themselves. Needless to say they haven't won any. While the Cavs defense has allowed the last 19 teams to reach 100 points or more on the road, they are a much better defensive team at home, where they allow less than 100 points a game on the season. That sets up a total of 215 that is going to be hard to top, especially when you consider that just 1 Cavs home game out of 17 has topped that mark the entire season. I'll go with the under here.
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01-18-11 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 185 | Top | 83-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The Chicago Bulls have dominated lesser opponents at home all season where they are 11-1 against teams with a losing record. They have put handcuffs on these teams, with a stiffling defense. The last 8 games the Bulls have played at home vs a team with a losing record shows them allowing just 83.7ppg. The Charlotte Bobcats play defense, and no team has hit the century mark without the benefit of overtime in their last 10 games. Combined these teams are 47-33 to the under, with the Bobcats playing underto a 15-4-2 mark in their last 21 vs a team with a winning home record. Bulls are now 18-7 to the under after their last 25 wins. I'll play the under in this one.
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01-16-11 | Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 211.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
The San Antonio Spurs have changed the tempo and are playing more of a fullcourt game this year compared to past seasons. That doesn't say this team still doesn't play a top level defense. The Spurs have held Denver to under 100 points in 16 of their last 25 meetings, while San Antonio has managed 100+ in just 7 of the last 25. Just 3 of the last 25 meetings have seen the total points scored reach 210, and just 2 over 210. The last 21 meetings in San Antonio have produced a 16-4-1 mark to the under, and the under is 24-8 in the last 32 overall between these clubs. Denver as a dog from 5-10.5 has played under to a 47-23 mark in their last 70. I'm playing under in this one.
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01-14-11 | Fairfield v. Loyola (Md.) OVER 126 | Top | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
The Fairfield Stags are off and running and are a big surprise at 12-3 and have run off 11 straight wins. They won by 27 in their last outing vs St. Peter's. Loyola,MD comes in with a disappointing 6-9 mark, and is off a big 18 point loss at Iona. That sets us up here for a majr total system. Teams that win a conference games by 20 or more points, facing a team that lost a conference game by 10 or more points have played over to a 134-80 mark good for 62.6% winners. I'll play this one to go over the total.
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01-13-11 | Miami Heat v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 205 | Top | 102-130 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
The Denver Nuggets become an NBA powerhouse when they play at home. They are 116-27 in their last 143 games at home, which includes 16-4 this year. One thing they haven't been doing this year is racing up and down the court as in the past, and against good defensive teams their games aren't very high scoring. The Nuggets have played 11 games against the top 9 defensive teams in the NBA in terms of points allowed, and not any of the 11 have topped this total set in this one. Miami has played great defense all season and ranks 2nd in the league. Just 6 teams have reached the century mar against Miami this season without the benefit of overtime. I'll play this one under the total.
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01-12-11 | Orlando Magic v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 190.5 | Top | 89-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
The Orlando Magic have now won 9 straight games and really have things going. The New Orleans Hornets will surely be focused for this one, and for them that should mean an intense effort on the defensive end. The past shows that the Hornets when facing a team at home with a winning percentage of .600 or better are 64-35 to the under in 99 previous games. The Magic playing on the road as a favorite vs a team that wins more than 47% of their games has been 33-22 to the under. Totals posted in the 190s with a team that has covered 2 straight games as a favorite, facing another winning team have gone to the under to the tune of an 86-46 mark the last 5 years. Magic is also 10-1 to the under after winning each of their last 3 games by 10 points or more. Orlando is also 35-16-1 to the under in their last 52 after scoring 100 points in their previous game, and New Orleans is 10-1 to the under when their opponent scored 100 or more in their previous game. Finally the Hornets are 26-12 to the under thyis season, and the under is 10-3 the last 13 times these teams have met, as well as 6-1 to the under in the last 7 played at New Orleans. Under gets the call.
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01-09-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
is going to have a rather large impact on this game from a scoring standpoint. The winds will be out of the northwest. Northwest wind here means it will be blowing diagonally across the field, negating an advantage going in either direction, but will have a serious influence on both the kicking and passing games. Packers have played 7 of 8 on the road to the under and Philly 5-1-1 to the under in their last 7 as a playoff favorite. Teams that commited 4 or more turnovers in their last game playing at home in this one with a total of 42-49.5 are 180-115 to the under. Under gets the call.
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01-09-11 | Sacramento Kings v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 207.5 | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
The Sacramento Kings have sure had an identity problem which has left this team without much direction. The Kings opened the season thinking along the lines of Phoenix and Golden St. They were going to try to run themselves into games, and the total points in those first 5 were 216.2ppg and all 5 went over the total. The Kings saw the 100 point mark in 17 of their firt 24 games, but then a change. They have now become a halfcourt team that has seen them touch 100 in just 4 of the last 12, and their last 9 road games they have averaged 88.2ppg. When a team is averaging in the 80s and the total is set well over 200 there is certainly a lot of value on the under. Toronto has seen their games at home vs losing teams average just 202ppg so value on the otherside as well. Kings under 8-1 in last 9 roadies, and Raptors 7-3 under as a favorite. Under gets the call.
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01-08-11 | Kentucky v. Pittsburgh UNDER 52.5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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01-07-11 | Texas A&M v. LSU UNDER 49 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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01-05-11 | Washington Wizards v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 190.5 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Washington Wizards offense has been a mess, and it has led to an 0-16 road mark, and in their last 10 games overall home or away, they have played 10 straight unders. Investigating NBA history shows a team has reached 10 straight unders just 18 times, with the 11th game producing an 11-6-1 mark to the over, and game 12 saw the streak end at 11 if it also went under. When the total has been set at 180 or more the total has gone over in every instance. I will make a play on the OVER here, and double up in the next Washington game on the over if it should lose here.
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01-04-11 | Arkansas v. Ohio State UNDER 57 | Top | 26-31 | Push | 0 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Ohio St. is simply year after year the most consistent defensive team in NCAAF. That isn't just consistent, it is consistently great. The Buckeyes in their last 65 games have held teams to 7 points or less in 28 of them, that is 43% of the time teams are getting 1 score or less off their great defense. When you push that number up to 17 or less they have held 48 of their 65 opponents to 17 points or less, or 74% of the time. Last year in their Bowl game they held an Oregon team that generated 425 yards of offense per game to 17 points, and just 260 total yards, 2 years ago they held Texas which was generating close to 500 yards a game to 24.The only defense Arkansas faced this year on the same level was Alabama where they scored 20 points. They also scored 31 vs LSU, but consder this. Ryan Mallet thre 11 INT's this season, and 5 of them were against the top 2 defenses he saw this year Alabama and LSU. This is also an Arkansas team that improved defensively, and I see this one falling short of the total, as Arkansas is 7-0 to the under in their last 7 Bowl games
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01-01-11 | Connecticut v. Oklahoma UNDER 55 | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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01-01-11 | Michigan State v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under
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01-01-11 | Penn State v. Florida UNDER 48 | Top | 24-37 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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12-31-10 | Florida State v. South Carolina UNDER 55 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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12-31-10 | Central Florida v. Georgia UNDER 53.5 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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12-31-10 | South Florida v. Clemson UNDER 41 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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12-30-10 | Washington v. Nebraska UNDER 53 | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under
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12-30-10 | North Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 50.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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12-30-10 | Kansas State v. Syracuse UNDER 48 | Top | 34-36 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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12-30-10 | Army v. SMU UNDER 52 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
The Bowl season affords the luxary of looking at many many years of games, and finding some really strong situations. The oddsmakers often struggle to put together lines in these games, because there are a lot of unusual occurances from suspensions, coaching changes, motivation, etc. That changes the landscape for the Bowl games. One such deficiency exists on totals in certain games, and it affords the opportunity to cash in. This pick is based on one of those marketng inefficiency points and I will play on the under.
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12-29-10 | East Carolina v. Maryland UNDER 68.5 | Top | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 360 h 33 m | Show |
The East Carolina Pirates will face the Maryland Terrapins in the Military Bowl. The Pirates have been quite offensive as their quick striking attack has produced 33 points or more in 8 straight games, and has averaged just about 40ppg in the process. The problem is when you take a look at the level of competition they have played in the 8 games it has been very much below average, except for NC State, where they scored just 27 in regulation. Their 3 trips facing BCS Conference defenses, it has painted a different picture. The Pirates in those 3 games (discounting ovrtime) shows them producing a total of 71 points or 23.7ppg, a far cry from 40. Maryland playing an ACC shedule has not allowed more than 31 points all season. ECU has allowed 42 or more points in each of their last 2 games coming into this one, and Maryland went for over 37 points. This scenerio has shown to go 51-21 to the under the last 72 times it has occured, for 71% winners. I'll play his one under the total.
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12-28-10 | Minnesota Vikings v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
The Minnesota Vikings have had a brutal year, but when you get down to the last 2 weeks of the season there are a lot of systems that are stronger than any part of the season. The Eagles have really become a top team with Michael Vick at QB, and just adds one more weapon to a team full of playmakers. That combination boosts this line well into double digits. NFL history shows us that when a line is posted among 2 key numbers 13, and 14, totals in games with a pointspread of 13, 13.5, or 14 have gone 97-69 to the over the last 20 years. The Vikings have also gone 12-4 to the over in their last 16 posted as a road dog, and 40-19-1 to the under playing on the road vs a team with a winning record. Eagles are 10-4-1 to the over in their last 15 as a home favorite. I'll go with the over.
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12-28-10 | New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 203.5 | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Heat is on. The Miami Heat took some time to get their trio of stars shinning all at the same time, but they have figured it out. It isn't so much that they have 3 prolific scorers, it is the fact that the 3 scorers, are playing some intense defense. The defense has been suffocating opponents and the last 15 to face this team have not managed to top the 98 point mark and in the 15 games opponents have scored just 86.7ppg. That includes Phoenix held to 83 and Golden St. held to 84. That puts a lot of pressure on a total topping the 200 point marker. You have to all the way back to November 17th to find a Heat's home game topping the 20 point mark, and that was long before the trio of stars figured out who they were together. I like the under in this one.
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12-26-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 211 | Top | 103-108 | Push | 0 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
The LA Clippers have been playing a slow halfcourt game all season, and the Phoenix Suns are a racehorse team that gets up and down very quickly. The Suns shoot 36% of the time within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and surprisingly the Clippers shot 36% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. The problem is these are 2 jump shooting teams, that get little done in side, as both shoot jump shots 72% of the time. Both these teams however only allow the opponent to shoot the ball in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock 36% of the time. The Clippers have been very defensive vs good scoring teams, those that average 99+ on the season as they are 105-73 to the under when facing them. They are also 36-21 to the under at home the last 2 years, and 22-11 to the under at home off a home game.Suns off of an 83 point game, where they lost by 10+, and following a 10+ point loss they are 5-1 to the under. I'll back the under here.
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12-25-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 213.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in long of the total and will play the over here.
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12-25-10 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 192.5 | Top | 96-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in short of the total and will play the under here.
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12-25-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 191.5 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in short of the total and will play the under here.
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12-25-10 | Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks UNDER 205 | Top | 95-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
The NBA is trying their best to turn Christmas Day into the same venue that Thanksgiving Day is assocoiated with the NFL. What they have done is turned a game or two into a 5 game card that runs the entire day, into the wee hours of the night on the East Coast. The games have taken on better matchups and now fits into a big system that fits this game. I will go with this game to come in short of the total and will play the under here.
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12-24-10 | Tulsa v. Hawaii UNDER 73 | Top | 62-35 | Loss | -110 | 318 h 28 m | Show |
Hawaii has a well earned reputation as being an offensive powerhouse, and that hasn't changed this season. What has changed is the fact that they have perhaps their best defensive unit in years, and arguably ever. They should be able to hold down a pretty good Tulsa offense, that is likely to turn more to a ball control offense, and not engage in a shootout vs Hawaii on their homefield. That makes this very high total in jeaopardy of not getting reached. These enormous totals often miss their mark, as since 2006 their have been 6 totals that were set higher than 72, and 5 of them ailed to get their. This also fits a great longterm Bowl system that has connected on 75% of totals since 1992. I will play on the under in this one.
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12-23-10 | Miami Heat v. Phoenix Suns OVER 209 | Top | 95-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
The Miami Heat have not allowed 100 points in a game in their last 13 games. The Suns hae allowed 100+ in 16 o their last 17 games, and have not been held to less than 94 at home all season. The Suns have been heavy on the overs when the total is set below 209.5 in their home games, as they have played to a 17-4 over mark in their last 21. These teams put up 219 in Miami already this season, and I expect to see a simlar number in this one. I'll play the over in this one.
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12-23-10 | Georgetown v. Memphis UNDER 146.5 | Top | 86-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Georgetown Hoyas have embraced Coach Thompson's halfcourt offense, and they have talented guards to execute the gameplan. The Hoyas also play sticky defense. Memphis isn't the ruaway breakaway team they have been in the past, and will settle into a halfcourt game rather nicely. This one is set way to high as neither of these teams are going to be playing fast, and the defenses on both ends play at a very high level. memphis is now 22-9 to the under at home when facing an opponent with a winning road recod. I'll play the under here.
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12-22-10 | Utah v. Boise State UNDER 61 | Top | 3-26 | Win | 100 | 271 h 47 m | Show |
The Boise St. Broncos in one game went from hopes of playing in the National Championship Game, or at least a BCS Bowl, to playing Utah in the MAACO Bowl on December 22nd. Talk about a disappointment Bowl, this is certainly that for the Broncos. Utah may be in the same boat.The Utes were 8-0 sailing along with a chance to position themselves in the BCS lineup, when they were humiliated 47-7 at home by TCU. They have since fallen apart. Their first 8 games saw them score 27 points or more in all of them, but since just 213ppg. Boise St, has a big defense, and I'm just not sure we are going to see the "A" game out of the offense here. Broncos hanging unders vs the Mountain West in 6 of their last 7. I like the under in this one.
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12-19-10 | Houston Rockets v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 203.5 | Top | 102-93 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
I'm a little surprised to see the total in this one set over the 200 mark. Houston is a team that likes to get up and down the court but to make a comparison, when they went to Milwaukee another team that works from the halfcourt, the game managed just 188 total points. They went to Charlotte and the same kind of offensive team in the Bobcats that likes the halfcourt game, and just 188 total points scored. Now they go to Sacramento, the team that slows the game down more than anyone, and we are looking at over 200 for a total. The Kings have played just 5 of their last 19 games to 200 points or more. Houston 8-2 to the under off 1 day rest, and 9-4 under after scoring 100+ in their last game. Sacramento 14-5 to the under in their last 19. I like the under here.
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12-18-10 | Ohio v. Troy State OVER 57 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
The Sun Belt has long been a conference that produces points in abundance, and that doesn't change when they get to a Bowl game, as 7 of the last 9 featuring a Sun Belt team have gone over the total. troy has gone for 30+ in 9 of their 12 games on the season, including 38 vs Oklahoma St. and 24 vs South Carolina, so they are going to score here. Ohio, U. has put up 30+ in 7 of their last 8 games, so a shootout here is certainly a possibility, and one of these teams is likely to get well into the 30s, if not both. Ohio,U now 7-1 to the over in their last 8 posted as a dog, while Troy is 17-5 to the over in their last 22 vs a winning team. I will go with the over in this one.
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12-18-10 | Northern Illinois v. Fresno State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 173 h 31 m | Show |
Northern Illinois put up 3 of the most explosive offensive performances in 3 straight games as we have seen all season, as they scored 195 points over a 3 game stretch, preceeding their MAC Championship game loss to Miami, Ohio. The numbers look good but the reality is they have done it vs very soft teams. Eastern Michigan they scored 71, Buffalo 45, Akron 50, Ball St. 59. Those 4 teams had a combined record of 9-39 on the season, only Toledo had a winning record where they put up a big number, but Toledo at 8-4 was actually outscored by opponents on the season. Fresno St. allowed a lot of points to teams like Nevada,Boise St., Mississippi, and Hawaii, but this offense is not on that level. I think the high scoring game here is never going to materialize. I will go with the under in this one.
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12-18-10 | UTEP v. BYU UNDER 50 | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 169 h 12 m | Show |
BYU came on strong to finish the season, but this is a different BYU team than we have seen in the past, that doesn't have the explosive offense. BYU is -0.7 yards a play from what the opponents defenses allow that they have played on their schedule. That said, their defense is what has carried them this season. The BYU deense is 0.6 yards a play better than the offenses they have faced on the season. UTEP is simply not a good offensive team either as they are-0.4 yards on offense from the line of scrimmage vs the average of their opponents. That sets up a very good under opportunity in this one, as neither team has the ability to be considered even close to average here, which in NCAAF games is 52 points a game. This one is set as "average" and I see it falling short. This also fits a longterm under angle that has connected on 75% since 1992. I will play this one under the total.
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12-18-10 | South Carolina v. Ohio State OVER 135.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
The Ohio St. Buckeyes are loaded and ready for a run deep into March. The Buckeyes are battinga thousnd at 9-0 through their first 9 and have put up 80+ in each of their last 2 games. Gamecosks have topped the 80 point mark in 3 themselves already on the season. Ohio St. has seen 8 of their last 11 vs the Pac-10 top the total. South Carolina has played to a 42-25 mark to the over when facing teams that shoot better than 45%, as well as playing 39-23 over as a road dog. This one is heading over the total.
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12-16-10 | San Francisco 49ers v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 45 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The San Diego Chargers are back in late season modem, where they have posted a 30-4 straight up mark over the last 5 years in games played from Halloween on. Tonight they face a 49er team that has not been able to move the ball on the road vs anyone but Carolina and Arizona, perhaps the NFC's worst 2 teams. They have produced a total of 46 points in their other 4 road games on the season, good for 11.5ppg. Tonight they face the best defense they have seen all season, and will likely have trouble moving the ball, and getting points. They should play here with fire, as they are still a contender in the NFC West which is brutal. I expect them to keep San Diego from piling up points, and with their offense producing very little, I like this one to go under the total.
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12-15-10 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 192 | Top | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The LA Clippers have really been struggling, and in particular on the offensive end. The Clippers are averaging 88.6ppg in their last 5 and the trend over the last 3 is even worse at 84.7ppg. Looks like a great place for an under right? WRONG! This is a huge spot for the over, as teams in the NBA that are playing on the road as a dog, after scoring less than 87 points in 3 straight games are 98-60 to the over! That is 62% winners over a period of 158 games played. I'll go with the over in this one.
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12-13-10 | NY Giants v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 21-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This game has been moved to Detroit as the Metrodome roof deflated and the game had to be moved to Detroit on Monday. The Vikings have gotten themselves into some high scoring games when the face a good passing attack like the Giants. Minnesota is 21-6 to the over when facing a team that averages 7+ yards per pass attempt since 1992. They are also 26-12 to the over when facing a team with a completion percentage of 64% or higher. When they have not been at home they are 41-22 to the over vs a team with a winning record in their last 63. Giants have been 7-0 to the over following a huge win by 21+ points, and their last 27 games overall have gone 18-9 to the over. I'll play this one over the total
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12-12-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 193 | Top | 78-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
The San Antonio Spurs have turned inside out this season. This was a team that played a halfcourt game, predecated on defense. Tim Duncan is no longer on the court for 36-40 minutes a night and the Spurs have shifted gears, as they have topped the 100 point mark in 15 of their last 19 games. That includes 10 of their last 11 at home where they have averaged a Golden St. like 109.2ppg in the 11 games. The Blazers after 7 straight with less than 100 have become more offensive topping the century mark in 3 of their last 4. I like the Over in this one.
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12-12-10 | Appalachian State v. Georgetown OVER 150.5 | Top | 60-89 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Appalachian St. has one of the top scorers in the country in Donald Sims at 27ppg. They also have another big scoring option in Omar Carter. It should ensure the Mountaineers get enough points here to push this one into at least the 150s. Hoyas producing about 80 a game, should have no problems finding the bottom of the net vs a team that offers little resistance inside, and plays soft. Hoyas at 9-2 to the over after a loss in their last 11, put on a show here. I'll go with the over in this one.
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12-07-10 | Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 205 | Top | 100-105 | Push | 0 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
The Golden St warriors are comprised of a few different parts this season, and aren't galloping up and down the court as in year's past. They have already played 8 games not reaching the century mark as well as playing 5 in the 80s or less. To contrast the style the Warriors played 3 games in the 80s or less the entire season a year ago. Dallas is a halfcourt team, and defends very well. The Mavs have not allowed more than 103 at home in any game this season, and that was the only game they allowed more than 95. The Mavs have not scored more than 106 at home in any game either. They have not seen a home game top 201 total points the entire season at home, and 3 totals they have faced this year over 200 have all gone under. Golden St. now 12-2 off 1 day rest to the under, and 14-4-1 to the under in their last 19 on the road. Dallas 12-1 to the under in their last 13 as a home favorite of 5-10.5, and 16-4-1 to th under in their last 21 at home. Last 5 in this series played in Dallas have seen 4 of the 5 under the total. I'll go with the under here.
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12-06-10 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 45 | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The New England Patriots and the New York Jets will play a game with a lot of consequences good and bad, as determined by the outcome of this game. The winner will control their own destiny in terms of securing homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Patriots, the last 3 times they had homefield advantage as the AFC East winner won the Superbowl, going a perfect 6-0 at home. There are other forces at work here. The weather is going to be a factor, as it usualy is in December in Foxboro. The game will be played with temperatures in the 20s, but that isn't the biggest factor. The wind is going to be a player here, with sustained winds of 15-20 MPH, with higher gusts blowing across the field from left to right, is going to hamper the kicking game, and long passing game. New England is a tough place to play for any team come December. The last 5 years the Pats, regardless of the level of their defense use the elements, homefield advantage, and Bill Belichick to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Since the 2005-06 season New England has played 10 games at home in December, and the oppoenets have scored a grand total of 85 points, or 8.5ppg. That has led to a 9-1 mark to the under. It gets worse as the weather gets worse, as with gametime temperatures at 40 or less, the opponents have played here 6 times, and scored 43 points, or 7.1ppg. The Jets have been victimized twice here, scoring 13 total points. The Jets are writing their own December legacy, predicated on defense. The Jets are now 13-3 to the under in their last 16 December games. This one stays under the total.
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12-06-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 188 | Top | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
The Orlando Magic has a lot of sickness going around the team, and 4 key players are down, or if they play they will certainly be limited. Hawks have really struggled against the better teams with 89 vs Orlando,86 vs Utah, 93 vs Dallas, 76 vs Boston, and 77 vs Miami. Orlando will not be in a hurry here with limited personnel available, and will try and shorten the game. This one has the look of an ugly low scoring halfcourt game, and I'll play on the under in this one.
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12-04-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 189 | Top | 91-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
These teams are both situated in the top half of the league in fewest points allowed per game, neither allowing 100. They are also both situated in the bottom 10 in points scored per game, so a low scoring game is quite likely here. These teams are also both travelling off of playing last night. The Sixers have a long history of playing low as a short home favorite of less than 5, where they have produced a 107-76 mark to the under, and when they are playing with 0 days rest that goes to 21-11 to the under. Charlotte at 57.4% under in their history as a 4.5 dog or less on the road, and 11-4-1 to the inder in their last 16 as a road dog. Series shows a history of 70% unders as well. I'll play this one under the total.
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12-02-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors OVER 227.5 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is another one I was waiting for the downward trend and caught it on the way down. The last 10 games between these teams has averaged over 240 points per game. The last 17 meetings has seen both teams over the 100 point mark when these teams hit the hardwood. Last year in the 4 games, the winning team scored a minimum of 123 points in every game. The Suns have dropped 5 of their last 7 games playing 0 defense, allowing 119.4ppg, with 3 of their last 5 opponents scoring their highest point total of the season. The warriors have drooped 4 straight games allowing 112.4ppg during the slide. Golden St. in their last 18 home games vs bad defensive teams allowing 103ppg or more, has seen the over go 15-3, and 55-34 to the over in their last 89 home games. Suns now 14-6 to the over on the road playing to a total of over 227.5 since 1996. Golden St is 18-5 at home to a total of 227.5 or higher. OVER is the call.
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12-02-10 | Houston Texans v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Historically speaking and relevant to the overall strength of this Philadelphia Eagle team, this becomes a must play for me. The Eagles should have their way with Houston and with Asante Samuel back they should be able take away the lone deep threat of the Texans. What may be even of greater significance is the fact that teams playing as a road dog on a short week (Thursday), with a posted total of 38 or higher have gone under to a 28-14 mark. I'll play the under here.
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11-28-10 | San Diego Chargers v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 51.5 | Top | 36-14 | Win | 100 | 122 h 3 m | Show |
The San Diego Chargers look to be making their move as they always seem to do this time of year. They are back to 5-5 and very much alive and well in the AFC West. The Colts have sustained a lot of injuries on the season, and it is showing up in Peyton Manning's numbers. He has thrown for the fewest yards per pass attempt than any prior season, and he is on schedule to top the 700 pass mark for the season, and he never reached 600 before. The Colts have no running game, and the offense is struggling more than usual. The Colts have reached 31 points just 2 time in their last 18 games, while doing so 33 times in their last 80. The Chargers are one of the best teams vs the pass, and without a running game to worry about can hold the Colts down here. While this matchup always looks like a high scoring affair the last 5 have seen the under prevail 4 times. I'll go with the under in this one.
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11-28-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets UNDER 210.5 | Top | 98-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played 13 of their 16 games on the season to the over, but this will be the first time posted on the road at 210 or higher. This is also a perfect place for an under as they beat Houston by 17 in their last meeting taking place this season. Home teams off a road loss, that are seeking revenge vs an opponent for a 19+ point loss, have really swarmed defensively, having gone 90-44 ATS 67.2% the last 134 occurances. The fact is 57% of these games have covered by 7 points or more. Go with the under in this one.
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11-28-10 | Green Bay Packers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
The Green Bay Packers have allowed just 10 points in their last 3 games, as the defense gets healthier, and they have now also allowed the fewest points in the NFL on the season. That makes for an interesting total set in this one. Teams this decade, since the 2000-01 season, that allow less than 15ppg are under cash cows in this high total scenerio. There have been 16 teams allowing less than 15 points per game in this period, and the highest total any of them have played to in 240 games is 47.5 matched by the total set in this one. The 47.5 total was reached twice, and the outcome was 2-0 to the under. It gets better. These teams playing to a total of 40 or more are 48-19-1 ATS to the UNDER! That is 71.6% of the time they fall short of the total. Under gets the call here.
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11-26-10 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 208.5 | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
We have watched this Golden St. team flounder at the bottom of the NBA for a few years now, with one certainty. They will lose a lot of games, play no defense, and score a lot of points. Something has changed here, as the culture around this team has become more like other NBA teams, and the commitment to defense is higher than ever, and the offense is no longer in a 48 minute track meet, but picking their spots. This year the Warriors have scored less than 90 points 5 times already. Going back they scored less than 90 points 5 times in their previous 102 games! Quite a transition. This team scored 110+ in 34 of 82 games a year ago, or 41.4% of the time, this year just 4 in 15 or 26.7% of the time. It is no wonder they are 11-4 to the under through 15 games. The Grizzlies are allowing less than 100 points a game (not including overtime), and have reached topped the 100 point mark just 1 time in their last 7 (OT not included). I like this one to go under the total.
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11-26-10 | Colorado v. Nebraska UNDER 49.5 | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
I was waiting to see the status of Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez in this one, and he has been declared out, and this total hasn't budged. It opened at 50 and sits at 50. The oddsmakers are basically saying that the score in this game is going to be the same regardless of Martinez at QB? I disagree. Since he has injured hus ankle and toe, the Cornhusker offense has been average, and often times when the offense takes a hit, the deense really brings it, and in Nebraska's case they are already one of the best in the country. I could see Colorado scoring 10 or less here, and that means the Nebraska offense has to top the 40 mark without Martinez. The last 3 weeks with him banged up they have scored a total of 50 (OT not included), and allowed noone in the endzone in the last 2. I'm going under in this one.
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11-26-10 | Auburn v. Alabama UNDER 58 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
The Auburn Tigers are in control of their own destiny in route to a chance to play for the National Championship. They have to win vs Alabama then win their SEC Championship game vs South Carolina. I'm not sold on this Auburn team, and I think Cam Newton is a great player, but not an unstoppable player. The Tigers have played all of 3 games on the road this season, and that will hurt them in this spot. They will play in front of 100,000+ screaming Alabama fans, and the noise will be deafening. Let's examine Cam Newton and the high octane Auburn offense vs the best defenses he has faced. He has played Kentucky #42 Miss St. #54, Clemson #24, and LSU #5. His TD pass total was 4 in those games, and his INT count was also 4. Miss St, held him to 136 passing and 70 rushing on 18 carries, that looks stoppable to me. Clemson took them to OT as Newton was held to 68 yards on 17 carries, and threw 2 INT's, and that was at home. LSU on the road held him to 86 yards passing, and 0 TD's. Now he goes to Alabama where everyone thinks 30-40 points is a given. If they do it, they will be the first team in my records dating back to 1999, when Alabama has had a top 10 defense. The Tide has been ranked in the top 10 in defense in 8 years since 1999. Since 2004 they have been ranked in the top 10 6 of 7 years. The most points scored in an Alabama home game vs an SEC opponent by both teams combined in those 6 years covering 23 home games is 44! (They had a game at 49 but 9 points were scored in OT). This total is set at 58. No Alabama game in their last 31 home games has topped 52 when they have had a top 10 defense. There have been some good offenses come here, and left humbled, ask Ryan Mallet and Arkansas who averaged 37.3ppg and left Tuscaloosa with 7. The Auburn team that featured Jason Campbell, Cadillac Williams, and Ronnie Brown, left Tuscaloosa with 250 yards and 21 points. Bottomline is this one is set way too high, and under is the play.
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11-25-10 | New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 50.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 47 m | Show |
Totals of 47.5 or higher in week 12 have played to the under 63.7% of the time. Dallas has found some offense the last 2 weeks, although a lot of it has been tainted. They had just 324 total yards vs the Giants but 33 points, and just 265 yards against the Lions and 35 points. That is 68 points on less than 60 yards, so I don't expect that to continue. The Saints have been over 30 in their last 2 games as well, so this one has an over look to it. Teams on the road after scoring 30+ in 2 straight weeks with a total posted of 50 or more have a long history of playing under the total, and that is my call here the under gets the money
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11-25-10 | New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions UNDER 51.5 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
The Patriots are 8-2 and have played a very tough schedule. Their last 6 weeks show games vs Baltimore,San Diego,Minnesota,Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis, and they won all 5 of them. The only loss sandwiched in between was to Cleveland, where they were a complete no show. Now after the Steelers and Colts, and on the road for a short week, they play the lowly Lions. Teams that score 30 points in 2 straight games and then take to the road with a total of 50 or higher, have played to the under 76% of the time since 2000. Totals of 47.5 or higher in week 12 have played to the under 63.7% of the time as well. I'll play this one under the total.
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11-24-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 213.5 | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Don't look now but the San Antonio Spurs long known for being a halfcourt team, have shifted gears. While center Tim Duncan ages, and his minutes decline, the SPurs used to tailor the offense around him, necessitating a halfcourt game, but personnel upgrades, and Duncan no longer the focal point, they are off and running and rank #2 in the NBA in points per game. The T-Wolves will welcome the open court game, as they have allowed 110+ in 5 straight, while averaging 107 themselves. This one tops the total, over gets the call.
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11-23-10 | Temple v. Miami OVER 44 | Top | 3-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The Temple Owls will be without a key defender in this game, as their top big play defender in Elijah Joesph is likely out, he leads the Owls in tackles for a loss. Miami Ohio has been without their top defender Ryan kennedy for most of the season, and the defense has suffered in his absence. The Owls are also a bit misleading offensively, as Chster Stewart was replaced at QB by Mike Gerardi. That change has proven worthy as Stewart was generating 6,2 yards pr pass attempt, while Gerardi has generated 9.2. Key defenders missing, and an improved Owl passing attack to complement a strong running game spells over the total.
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11-21-10 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 48.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
The NFL is a league of history, that if you look in the right places you can find some offerings by the books that definately give you a winning posiion. Week 11 has such an opportunity and I am ready to exploit a 69.2% winning situation that occurs this week. This is a longtime premise that dates back to the 1980s and is still a powerful tool today. I will be backing this game according to those results and play on the under
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11-21-10 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 50 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 27 m | Show |
The NFL is a league of history, that if you look in the right places you can find some offerings by the books that definately give you a winning posiion. Week 11 has such an opportunity and I am ready to exploit a 69.2% winning situation that occurs this week. This is a longtime premise that dates back to the 1980s and is still a powerful tool today. I will be backing this game according to those results and play on the under.
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11-20-10 | Ole Miss v. LSU UNDER 51 | Top | 36-43 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
The LSU offense is average at best, but they bring a very powerful defense to the field every night. The Tigers have played 3 home games the last 2 years and against some pretty good offenses. LSU has allowed a grand total of 144 points in the 13 games, or 11.1 a contest. That would mean they have to hit 40 to push this one over the total. Their home games have averaged less than 39 total points a game over the last 2 years, and in their last 14 home games 12 have gone under the total. This one goes under the total.
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11-19-10 | Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 66.5 | Top | 0-51 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
I picked Boise St. to win it all this season, and they still might get their chance. This team for my money is the best team in NCAAF this year, and I hope they get a chance to prove it. The offense is very good, but as good as the offense is, the defense is even better. They have given up 61 points in their 7 games vs teams not from a BCS conference the entire year. When you consider the fact that 28 of the 61 have come in the 4th quarter, when they have long since put th game away, they have really given up just 33 points in the 7 games. When you get a total posted in the high 60s with a team that is likely to limit the opponent to 10 points or less, that means Boise is going to have to score close to or more than 60 o push this one over. I'll play the under in this one.
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11-18-10 | Air Force v. UNLV Rebels OVER 56.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The UNLV Runnin Rebels have not defended very good teams well this season. They have allowed 48 to TCU, 49 to West Virginia, 44 to Nevada, 38 to Utah, and 41 to Wisconsin, not to mention 59 to BYU. Air Force has letdown against bad teams, allowing 23 to New Mexico, 22 to Army, and 27 to Colorado St. This total is set way to low under the given circumstances. Air Force is 21-8 to the over in November games and the last 4 in this series has produced 4 straight to the over. I'll go with the over in this one.
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11-18-10 | Chicago Bears v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 40 | Top | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The Miami Dolphins took a hit last week when they lost both QB's to injuries, and will go with Tyler Thigpen in this one vs the Bears. The Dopphins may have to simplify the offense, and Thigpen is a good scrambler so the Dolphins could be trying to keep things on the ground in this one. The Bears have a short week, and teams playing on Thursday as a road dog of 3 points or less have played under 62% of the time. I like this one to fall short of the total, under is the call.
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11-18-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Orlando Magic UNDER 204.5 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The Orlando Magic have a way of slowing teams down, and they have been playing focused basketball early in the season, paying attention on the defensive end of the court. Orlando has allowed just 2 of 10 opponents to reach the 100 mark this season. They are allowing less than 91 points a game. The Suns in their last 5 on 0 days rest have only managed to top the total 1 time, while Orlando is 20-6-1 to the under as a favorite from 5-10.5 points, and 38-18-1 to the under in their last 57 vs the West. I'll play this one under the total.
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11-18-10 | UCLA Bruins v. Washington Huskies UNDER 53.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a pair of average teams that defend the other teams strength, and I look for a low scoring game in this one. UCLA really struggles throwing the ball, and average less than 125 yards in the air a game, so the clock will be moving a lot here. UCLA has lacked offense several years and looking at all their games with a posted total of 49 or higher, they are 21-6 to the under since 06-07, and have averaged falling short of the total by 7.7 points per game. Washington has also been an under team vs a team with a losing record at 5-0 to the under. This series has also produced 4 of the last 5 to the under. Under gets the call in this one.
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11-17-10 | Bowling Green State v. Toledo UNDER 54 | Top | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The Toledo Rockets were hammered in their last game bu Northern Illinois. They will be facing a punchless Bowling Green Falcon team that has a very enemic offense, and at the same time Toledo will be missing their starting QB. That would likely mean the Rockets run the ball a lot to keep their QB from getting into bad situations, and the Falcon defense allows more than 200 rushing yards per game. It is likely Bowling Green tries to run a lot as they relize if they can control the ball, and shorten the game that is their best chance to hang in this one. I like the under here Totals set from 49.5-56 with a turnover prone team that averages over 2.5 turnovers a game (Bowling Green), facing a team that forces 2.5 turnovers a game (Toledo) have played under to a 71-31 mark 70% of the time the last 2 decades in college football. I'll go with the under here
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11-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Miami Heat UNDER 208 | Top | 96-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The Miami Heat and their cast of stars are starting to score. Their first 4 games played to the under, while they have since played 6 straight over the total. The Phoenix Suns are a run and gun team, so a total of 208, as it now stands should be a breeze to top right? History shows otherwise as 51 times in the NBA teams have had a 6 game over the total streak with a total set at 207 or higher and they are 20-31 to the over. The public is all over this one to go over at 70%, but history says otherwise, and I'll play this one under the total.
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11-16-10 | Ohio v. Temple OVER 43.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
The Temple Owls program was in shambles not to long ago, but they have turned the corner, and come into this one with an 8-2 record on the season. The Owls defense has allowed just 10 points total in their last 3 games, certainly look to be a defensive power. I'm not so sure about that. The Owls have played all the bottom feeders in the MAC. They are 5-1 but the 5 wins have been vs teams that are a combined 11-40 on the season, and the only good MAC team they faced, Northern Illinois beat them by 14. Most of the #18 ranked defense has been earned by games vs horrible offenses, and a lot of them. Out of 120 teams Temple played Kent (105), Akron (120), Buffalo (112), and Bowling Green (114), and Div-1AA Villonova. Their other 5 games has shown them allowing an average of 390 yards a game, which would turn a #18 ranking into a number 77 ranking. The 5 games vs better offenses aren't that good either. Connecticut (87), Penn St. (74), Army (77), C Mich (57), and N. Illinois, the game they lost (24). Ohio,U is at #83, but over the last 6 weeks they have averaged 37.2ppg. This game is going over the total.
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11-14-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 216.5 | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
Lakers really playing uptempo basketall this season to get the season started. Last season through 9 games the Lakers were playing to games that averaged a total score of 190. This year they are averaging a total of 214. That is 24 points above where they were playing a year ago. Phoenix will accomodate frenetic pace as their games averaging 215. Put the 2 together and a result similar to the 230 put up in their firt matchup. This one goes over the total.
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11-13-10 | UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 53 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
These are two of the worst offenses in NCAAF this year, with both combining to average just 40 points a game. UL Lafayette has offensive line issues, and have suffered 31 sacks already on the season, and what makes it worse is they are running the ball for just 2.6 yards a carry putting them in harms way facing a lot of 3rd and long situations. Florida Atlantic is even worse, and average just 17.5ppg. Both these teams have average defenses so I certainly think they will rather easily handle their opponents offensive inefficiencies. This is a conference game where each team returned 5 or less offensive starters. These games have gone 72-42 to the under the last 5 years. This one stays under the total.
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11-12-10 | Boise State Broncos v. Idaho OVER 63.5 | Top | 52-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Boise St. Broncos know they not only have to win, they have to win big to have a chance of passing TCU, and hope one of the 2 BCS Conference unbeaten teams, Auburn, and Oregon stumble, to get the the BCS Championship game. The Broncos are the best team for the line of scrimmage and I expect them to put up 50+ here. idaho has gone over 30+ already 6 times on the season, and I don't expect them to get there in this one, but I do expect them to get 14-17 enough to push this one over the total. Over is the play in this one.
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11-12-10 | Ball State Cardinals v. Buffalo UNDER 47 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
These are 2 struggling programs, each having trouble offensively, while the Bulls defense may be the best unit on the field between the 2 offenses and defenses. I like this one to really be a low scoring affair, and am surprised this total is beyond the 40. This one should be played to 40 tops leaving a lot on the table here for a rock solid under play. I like this one to play low, and will go with the under in this Friday nighter. get all 4 plays for Friday with a 1 day pass.
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11-11-10 | Baltimore Ravens v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
The Baltimore Ravens have played to the fewest totals of 40 or more than any other football team in the NFL in the last 13 years. They have played 200 games during the stretch with just 44 totals posted at 40 or higher in their games, or 22% of all their games. To see them with a total of 44 as it sits right now is highly unusual. They have seen a total of 44 r higher just 11 times. The Ravens in totals posted at 40+ over the last 13 years are 26-16-2 to the under or 62% of the time, and those numbers are consistent when the total reaches 42 or higher, as they are 17-10-1 or 63% of the time. When they have played on the road at 40+ they are 14-5 or 74% under. They are 4-2 to the under with a total of 40+ on the road vs an NFC team. Overall the Ravens are 9-1-1 to the under in their last 11 road games to any total. Baltimore since 1992 has faced 12 teams that are horrible against the pass allowing 235 yards or more and have gone 11-1 to the under, which is 7-0 under if it occured in the 2nd half of the season. Atlanta is 6-0 to the under the last 3 years off a win vs a division team. I'll go with the under in this one.
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11-11-10 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 185 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
I was waiting for this one to hit the 185 mark, and now that it has it has become an official play. The Celtics took the first game 88-80 and I expect this one to once again play at a playoff half-court pace. The C's do a great job controlling tempo, and I like what I have seen from them so far. heat has looked disjointed at times, and don't seem to have the running mentality, but would rather use their stars to break teams down off the dribble. I like the under here.
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11-10-10 | Miami RedHawks v. Bowling Green St Falcons UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
After most watched last night's explosion of points in the MAc game between Toledo and Northern Illinois, it will have under bettors thinking twice, but this is a different game, with a different outcome. Bowling Green has one of the worst offenses in the country, but they will be facing a Miami,Ohio team that is almost as bad defensively. Maimi, Ohio loves to put the ball in the air, the problem is that is the strength of this Bowling Green team, as they are poor vs the run. redbirds have not played a conference game all year that has reached 50 points, with just one on their entire season topping the 50 mark, and it took Missouri's offense to achieve that. I like this one to stay under the total.
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11-08-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 41 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Steelers come into their Monday Night Football game at Cincinnati off a road loss. This has been historically where the Steeler defense bows its back and steps up big. Since 1990 they have come into a game on the road off a road loss 22 times, and have turned in a 17-5 mark to the under good for a 77.2% winning rate. The numbers get even better when the posted total in these games are over 40 points, as they are a picture perfect 8-0 to the under. The Bengals going back to the last half of last season have faced 8 defenses ranked #13 or higher, and have never scored over 20 points and average just 13.5ppg. The 8 games have seen 6 go under the total, but when the total posted was 35 or higher, the under is 6-0. That makes 14-0 to the under in this situation combined for both teams. Under gets the call.
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11-08-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 187 | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
The San Antonio Spurs are all about defense, and the Charlotte Bobcats are learning fast. Charlotte made the playoffs last year, not because of their great offense, but because they had the NBA's best defense. This year they are back near the top in the early going already and I look for this one to be a halfcourt methodical game, with few opportunities for scoring. San Antonio 20-7 to the under in their last 27 vs a team with a losing home record. Charlotte at 25-11-1 to the under vs a team with a winning road percentage of over .600. I'll play under here.
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11-07-10 | Boston Celtics v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 198 | Top | 92-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
The Boston Celtics have done well on the road because they don't mind defending, and when they face good teams they seem to rise to the defensive occasion. Oklahoma City developed rapidly last year, and and have played 5 straight to the over to open the season, but I look for that to end tonight vs the Celtics. Boston has played 5 straight to the under vs the West, and 7-3 to the under as a dog of 4.5 or less. Oklahoma City at 21-10 to the under as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. I'll play the under here.
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