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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 170 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. It goes without saying that both teams are loaded, on both sides of the ball. As you're likely aware, the first meeting was fairly high-scoring. It finished comfortably above the total, Alabama winning 41-24. While we're working with a considerably higher O/U number for the rematch, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Both teams were dominant defensively last game. Alabama limited Michigan to 11 points. Georgia held Cincinnati to only six. In last year's big bowl win over Ohio State, the Tide got four combined TDs from Devonta Smith and Najee Harris. Of course, they no longer have either of those players, both having moved on to the pros. The Tide also got a big game from Metchie III in last year's final. He had eight receptions and averaged better than 10 yards per catch. The Tide won't have him either though. That's a big deal. Metchie had a TD and averaged better than 16 yards per reception in Alabama's December win over Georgia. However, it was Jameson Williams who really torched the Bulldogs. Now, with Metchie out, we saw Alabama change the way that they used Williams. He started doing a lot of the things Metchie had previously done. Either way, Metchie's absence will help allow Georgia to be much better at guarding Williams. A closer look at the stats from the first game shows that it was only one "wild" second quarter where the majority of the points were scored. They only had three in the first, seven in the third and a relatively modest 17 in the fourth. So, 27 points in those three quarters. They're not going to score 38 points in the second quarter this time. In the first meeting, the Tide threw the ball 44 times, while running only 26 times. The Tide had an opposite approach last week though. They ran the ball 47 times, while throwing 28, in the win over Cincinnati. I expect more frequent running plays to be part of the game plan, once again. While the Bulldogs accumulated more than 500 yards of offense against Michigan, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they had gained more than 450 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one turns into a lower-scoring than expected, defensive battle. |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 84 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss OVER 57 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baylor/Ole Miss OVER the total. Both teams closed out the regular season on 'under' streaks. Those results have kept this O/U line in the 50s, when it otherwise could have easily been in the 60s. Note that Ole Miss games average 64.9 ppg. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both these offenses can put up big numbers. Baylor averages 32.5 ppg. At 35.9 ppg, Ole Miss averages even more. Admittedly, the Baylor defense is solid. However, its not dominant like a Georgia or Alabama defense. The Bears still gave up double-digits in points in each of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Rebel defense is mediocre, at best. The Rebels allowed at least 14 points in all 12 games this season. Even Austin Peay scored 17 against them. Ole Miss coach Kiffin is known for his tendency to play aggressively. He doesn't mind rolling the dice on fourth down. That'll often lead to points, for and against. On the season, they allowed an average of 25 ppg. Six of the past nine Sugar Bowls have seen at least 54 points scored. Last year's game produced 77 points. They likely won't get that many this year but they'll get "enough." Go with the Over. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia v. Michigan UNDER 46 | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Michigan UNDER the total. Naturally, both offenses are very good. The defenses are arguably even better though. Prior to the Alabama game, the Bulldogs were giving up nothing. No other team, except for the Crimson Tide, scored more than 17 against them. For the season, they allowed an average of only 9.5 points. The Michigan defense was also stout. They closed the season by limiting Iowa to three points. On the season, the Wolverines allowed an average of only 16.1 points. The Wolverines are going to run the ball but that's going to be tough against a Georgia defense which will be loading up against the run. The Bulldogs are also going to be running the ball regularly. That's going to help keep the clock moving and ultimately lead to a low-scoring affair. The UNDER is 4-1-1 the last six times that Georgia was off a SU loss and the UNDER is also 6-1 the last seven times that the Bulldogs were favored in a bowl game. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | Top | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less. They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army OVER 53 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Army/Missouri OVER the total. While the Knights stalled in the Navy game, they're now facing a less capable defense. I expect them to bounce back with a much better offensive showing this afternoon. Prior to scoring just 13 at Navy, Army had scored 31, 33 and 63 points, in its previous three games. The only other time this season that the Knights scored 14 or less was in their loss at Wisconsin. They bounced back and scored 56 their next time out. Unfortunately, for Army fans, they gave up 70 in the same game. The Tigers do not have a good defense. That's not just because they play in the SEC either. They gave up at least 23 points in every single game this season, an average of 34.7 ppg. The offense can score though. Despite their schedule including the likes of Georgia, the Tigers average 29.7 ppg. While it should be mentioned that Brady Cook will be Missouri's starting QB, I don't expect it to change what the Tigers do. The last time that the Knights were in the Armed Forces Bowl, they scored 70 points. Look for another relatively high-scoring affair. |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -4.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 109 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army OVER 34.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This is a very low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. It's true. Historically, this has been a low-scoring series. We're working with a lower O/U line than any of the recent meetings though. The last 10 have all ranged between 36 and 55.5. This year, Army is very tough to stop. The Knights average 35.5 ppg. In fact, both offenses come in with momentum. While I'm not saying they will, either is capable of going over the very low number by itself. The Knights have scored 31, 33 and 63 their past three games. Meanwhile, Navy scored 38 and 35 in its last two games. Army games avg 58.3 points on the season. Navy games average 50. The 'under' streak comes to an end this afternoon. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan UNDER 43.5 | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Michigan/Iowa UNDER the total. While both teams have been involved in a few relatively high-scoring games recently, I'm expecting points to be hard to come by in this one. Both defenses are outstanding. They allow 17.3 and 17.2 ppg, respectively. That ranks each in the top 10 in the country. They're both top 15, in terms of yards allowed per game, too. The Hawkeyes, who were held to only seven points twice this season, figure to have some trouble scoring. The Wolverines allowed 27 points last game. However, that was against Ohio State. They held their three previous opponents to an average of just 14 points. On the season, they allowed 18 or fewer points in nine of 12 games. No team has scored more than 27 against Iowa all season long. These teams last met in 2019. The score was 10-3. Their previous meeting before that had a score of 14-13. With a heavy dose of the run, from both teams, helping to chew up the clock, expect another low-scoring affair. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -4 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -120 | 145 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA +3.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 60.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on the OVER in the Egg Bowl. The Rebels have been on an 'under' streak. However, the Bulldogs have been on an 'over' streak. I expect the Bulldogs' streak to be the one which continues. The Bulldogs scored 55 themselves last week. True, that was against a weak opponent. However, the previous week they scored 43, at Auburn. They're averaging more than 40 ppg their last five. While the offense is potent, the Miss. State defense is nothing special. The Bulldogs have allowed 28 or more points six different times, allowing more than 30 each of their past two games against an SEC opponent. The Rebels can score, too. They've scored 27 or more in each of their past three games and 20 or more in every game this season. On the season, they're averaging 36.4 ppg. That's Top 20 in the country. Last year, when these teams met, the O/U line was 70.5. We're working with a considerably lower number here. Expect it to prove to be too low. |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. |
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11-20-21 | UAB +6 v. UTSA | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. |
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas A&M and Ole Miss OVER the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams had O/U lines of 62 or greater. A look at this season's Ole Miss games shows that the lowest O/U line was 66.5. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number Saturday and I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While the Aggies got into a low scoring game vs. Auburn last week, they'd scored 44, 35 and 41 points in their previous three. These teams combined for 745 yards of offense last season after compiling 944 the previous year. The previous year they had 782 yards and the year before that they combined for 832. Expect both teams to have success moving the football, the final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting. |
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11-13-21 | Stanford +13 v. Oregon State | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -119 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -130 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Huskies dominated the Cardinals from 2012 - 2018. They won (and covered) seven straight meetings. However, things chanced in 2019. The Cardinals have now beaten the Huskies each of the past two seasons. I expect them to make it three in a row this evening. Ball State has the better defense in this game. The Cardinals allow 27.6 ppg. The Huskies allow 33.8. While the defensive passing stats are similar, Ball State is better at stopping the run. The Cardinals allow teams to gain 154 rushing yards per game. NIU allows more than 200. The Huskies are off a tough loss. The Cardinals, who have had an extra day of rest, are off a victory. They've won four of their last five and are 3-0 on the road, during that stretch. Expect them to keep on rolling for another day. |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. |
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11-06-21 | Penn State v. Maryland +10.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on VTech/BC OVER the total. These teams combined for 54 points last year. The O/U line was 62. In 2018 and 2019, the games between these teams also both produced greater than 50 points. They had combined scores of 52 at VT and 63, here at Boston College. Those O/U lines were 56.5 and 57. Tonight, we're working with a considerably lower O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Admittedly, the Boston College offense has struggled. That's a big reason why we've got the low O/U number. There's more talent here than those recent numbers suggest. They struggled against NC State in their last game here but in their previous home game, the Eagles dropped 41 points on Missouri. That was one of three games this season where BC has scored more than 40. An ESPN home game provides the opportunity for the offense to show the world that it can still move the ball. I expect the players to seize that opportunity. Remember, VT has allowed 28 or more points in three of its past four, including 41 to Syracuse. Stopping the Hokies may be a different matter though. The Eagles have allowed 28 or more points four different times this season. Look for both teams to have some success on offense and for the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that The Hokies were road favorites. |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 67 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -121 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/WMU UNDER the total. We were reminded last night that these MAC games can get high-scoring. We're working with a very high O/U line for this one though. In fact, I looked at the O/U lines from that past 10 meetings between these teams and this one is considerably higher than any of them. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Broncos managed just 15 points against Toledo last time out, a 34-15 loss. That same Toledo team, which limited WMU, just gave up 52 points (to EMU) last night. The Broncos have now scored 28 or less in seven of their eight games, 24 or less in six of those. The Chippewas are off a very high-scoring game last time out. However, their previous three games had all finished below the total and their previous four games all finished with 58 or fewer combined points. Note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that they threw for 280 or more yards in their previous game. While last year's game at Central Michigan was high-scoring, the last one here at Western Michigan was not. Including that 45-point game, four of the past five meetings finished with fewer than 64 combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-30-21 | Virginia v. BYU -132 | Top | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing BYU on the moneyline. Of course, I expect the Cougars to cover here. However, when able to get the moneyline at such a resonable price, removing the risk of failing to cover in a one or two point win, this is the way to go. Virginia comes in on a roll, the reason we're able to get BYU at such a reasonable price. This is no easy place to play though and the Cougars are battle-tested. They beat a good Arizona State team here by double-digits. I really like what I saw from them in last week's win at Washington State, too. They played stingy defense and ran for a season high 238 yards. While the Cavs have been great on offense recently, the BYU defense is well-designed to slow them down. Of course, there's the Bronco Mendenhall factor. He obviously wants to beat his former team. The Cougars want to beat him just as badly though. The Cavs haven't won five in a row in more than a decade. Cougars rise to the occasion and get the "W."Â |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on FSU/Clemson OVER the total. The Tigers have been involved in some low-scoring games of late. That's helped in keeping this O/U line relatively low. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles scored 59 points (themselves) last week. They've scored 33 or more in each of their past three games. Yet, it's Clemson which is favored by more than a TD. If the Noles are scoring, that means that the Tigers are going to need to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete and win. Considering that the Noles have allowed 20 or more in six of seven games and 30 or more in four of those, I feel that the Tigers absolutely will be able to "put up a big number." The Tigers scored 45 and 59 points (themselves) the last two meetings in the series. With the Noles off a 59-point effort, note that the OVER is 4-0 the past four times that FSU had scored 40 or more points in its previous game. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa -10.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. |
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10-23-21 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M OVER 45 | Top | 14-44 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Carolina/Texas A&M OVER the total. This is a low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. After a slow start, the Aggies have hit their stride on offense. They have the potential to go over this total by themselves. (They scored 48 themselves at South Carolina LY.) In their last two games, they scored 41 (against Alabama!) and 35 at Missouri. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have given up 40 and 45 in their last two road games. While the Aggies will put up a big number, the Gamecocks should also contribute. They've hit double-digits in every game, including 13 at Georgia and they're averaging 21.9 ppg on the season. Last season's game had an O/U line of 58. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number here which is providing excellent value. With the OVER a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Gamecocks were road underdogs, all six of those games producing a minimum of 53 points, look for this one to prove higher scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -124 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. (ML) While I respect the Bruins, I believe that the Huskies are better than many realize and I really like how this game sets up for them. While the season hasn't started the way that the Huskies had hoped, this is an experienced and talented Washington team. Last week's bye has given them a chance to regroup. The season isn't lost yet. Remember, the Huskies have won their last two at home. They beat Cal here last game and they hammered Arkansas State (52-3) in their previous game here. While the Huskies have had extra rest and preparation, the Bruins are playing their second straight road game. Washington, 4-1 the past five times it was off a conf. loss, has won the past two meetings with UCLA. I expect another victory this evening. |
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10-16-21 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 64 | Top | 31-64 | Win | 100 | 117 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Kent State / Western Michigan to finish OVER the total. The Kent State offense put up 48 points last game but the defense gave up 38. The Golden Flashes also allowed 37 points the last time that they were on the road. Now, they face a Western Michigan team which also has plenty of offensive firepower. The Broncos gave up 45 points last time out and more than 300 passing yards. The last meeting between these teams produced 68 points. That game finished 'over' the total and so did their previous meeting. I like what I saw (633 total yards, more than 400 through the air!) from the Kent State offense last week but the defense gave up 549 yards. The Broncos are a tougher opponent and they're going to be in an angry mood. I expect both teams to put up a big number as this one turns into a track meet. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson -14 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points |
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10-09-21 | Alabama v. Texas A&M UNDER 51 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in the country. The Tide have been putting up big offensive numbers, week after week. This is still a relatively young offense though and now they're on the road against arguably the most talented defense which they've faced. Of course, the Tide are still going to score. However, I don't expect them to score as easily, or as many points, as they've been doing. The Alabama defense is considerably more experienced than its offense and has already held three teams to 14 or fewer points. In other words, the Aggies, who have already scored 10 points twice themselves, figure to have a difficult time scoring. Winning this game won't be easy for the Aggies, obviously. That said, they've got a talented defensive front and and offensive line that appears to be coming around. They're going to be doing everything they can to chew up the clock and keep the Tide offense off the field. In the end, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the Aggies' last six games. |
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10-09-21 | Buffalo v. Kent State -5 | Top | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win. |
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10-08-21 | Charlotte v. Florida International +4 | Top | 45-33 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. |
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10-02-21 | Fresno State v. Hawaii +10.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland OVER 45.5 | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 104 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa/Maryland OVER the total. While both teams have played well defensively, this is a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both offenses have plenty of weapons; each offense brought back a lot from last year. The Hawkeyes have scored 34, 27, 30 and 24 points. That's been enough as their opponents haven't been able to keep up. Keep in mind that they were favored by more than three TD's in each of their last two games though. Now, they face the most capable team they've faced since upsetting instate rival Iowa State. I believe that the Terps will put up a big enough number that the Hawkeyes are going to need to score more than they've had to. Keep in mind that Maryland has scored 30, 62 and 67 in its three home games. When Iowa visited here in 2014, the O/U line was 45.5. The teams combined for 69 points. Look for history to repeat itself, as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -3 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. |
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09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 44.5 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 101 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/ASU OVER the total. This is a very low total. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that last year's game had an O/U line of 49 and finished with 65 combined points. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings between these teams produced a minimum of 47 combined points. None of those games had an O/U line this low. That leads one to question WHY this O/U line is so low. That's, in large part, due to Colorado's offensive futility. While its true that the Buffaloes have indeed struggled to score, that's not going to continue. It helps that the Colorado offense won't have to contend with ASU's defensive end Travis Moore, who got hurt in the BYU game. That's the second defensive lineman that the Sun Devils have lost. ASU's offense has no problems though. Already averaging 31.7 ppg, the Sun Devils now get back running back Chip Trayanum (as well as return specialist D.J. Taylor.) Four of the last five meetings here have finished above the number. Additionally, the OVER is 5-1 the last six times that the Buffaloes were listed as underdogs. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night. |
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09-25-21 | California v. Washington -7 | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest +4 v. Virginia | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/Appalachian State UNDER the total. These teams combined for only 24 points when they faced each other last season, a 17-7 win for Marshall. The Thundering Herd check into this year's rematch off a high-scoring game against East Carolina. However, that's not typical for them. In their first two games, the Herd allowed just seven and 10 points. App. State is also a stingy team. Despite playing at Miami (and also having faced East Carolina) the Mountaineers have allowed just 19, 25 and 10 points. Off a 44-10 blowout victory, note that the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Mountaineers were off a win of 20 or more points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. |
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09-16-21 | Ohio +21 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -117 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. |
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09-11-21 | Stanford v. USC OVER 53 | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on stanford/usc OVER the total. I played against the Cardinal last week. So, I was happy to see them score only seven points. That was a very early starting time though and I believe that worked against Stanford. Tonight, the Cardinal are back in the Pacific Time Zone and I'm expecting a much better offensive effort. Note that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that the Cardinal had scored less than 20 points in their previous game. After scoring just 17 in its first game of 2019, the Cardinal played USC in their next game. That game had an O/U line of 44 and finished with 65. Next, after scoring six against Oregon, the Cardinal combined with OSU for 59. After a 16-point effort against UCLA, the Cardinal combined with Arizona for 72. A 13-point showing at Colorado was proceeded by a 71-point game at WSU. Finally, after a 20-pt offensive line vs Cal, the Cardinal combined with ND for 69. You get the idea. I'll also mention that the OVER is 8-1 the past nine times that USC had allowed less than 20, in its previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on WVU/Maryland UNDER the total. This O/U number has climbed from its opener. I believe that's helping to provide us with plenty of line value. The Mountaineers should put up quite a few points this year, as they've got plenty of weapons on offense. Their defense is also excellent though and will be tough to score against. Last year, WVU held opposing teams to 291.4 ypg, #4 in the country. With nine returning defensive starters, the Terps will also be stingy this season. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that the Terps were underdogs, 6-1 their last seven games overall. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in WVU's last six, as the road team. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +6 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year. Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 | Top | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on East Carolina / Appalachian State UNDER the total. While both offenses have some threats, these are two experienced defenses. ECU QB Ahlers is an exciting player but I expect him to have some trouble against a stingy Mountaineer defense. Inside linebackers Jackson and Cobb each had more than 90 tackles last season. Each added some sacks while Jackson also had a couple of picks. On offense, the Mountaineers will feature a heavy dose of the run, which will help to chew the clock up. Remember, Peoples just ran for over 300 yards in App. State's bowl win back in December. While the Pirates defense has admittedly struggled in recent seasons, Coach Houston has a defensive background and this is now his third year. That said, ECU should be better defensively this season. Note that the UNDER is 4-1 the past five Pirate September games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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08-28-21 | Southern Utah v. San Jose State OVER 56 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Southern Utah and SJ State OVER the total. The Spartans were a profitable 'under' team last winter. Seven of their last eight games, including each of their last five, finished below the total. This is a new season though and a relatively low number. Importantly, a closer look shows that things weren't as bleak offensively as all those 'unders' makes it sound. Yes, the Spartans struggled to score in their New Year's Eve Bowl game against Ball State. They scored 30 or more in each of their final four regular season games though and 28 or more in each of their last six. This year, the offense brings back nine starters and will be playing behind a veteran offensive line. A game against Southern Utah provides an opportunity to immediately get healthy offensively and get rid of the bad taste from the Ball State loss. While SJ State will put up a big number, the Thunderbirds aren't without offensive talent. They'll contribute. QB Miller started all six games last season and threw for 1700+ yards and 15 TDs. They've got an NFL prospect (Braxton Jones) on the offensive line. Running back Duckett is solid and Oregon transfer JR Watts brings speed at the WR position and an opportunity to beat the Spartans deep. Look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -105 | 745 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 230 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Alabama OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in Alabama's win over Notre Dame. That one stayed comfortably below the total which has helped to keep this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When I played on the 'under' in Alabama's last game, it was largely because I respected the Notre Dame defense. While I wasn't sure that they would score that many points, I felt strongly that the Irish would do everything that they could to slow the game down and to try and keep the Alabama offense off the field. The Buckeyes, however, are an entirely different team. After putting up 49 points against Clemson, they believe that they've got the type of offense that can trade points with the SEC champs. Rather than try and slow the game down, they're going to try and outscore the Tide. If you watched their game against Clemson, you saw that they were very aggressive; there was no taking their foot off the gas. They kept throwing and attacking and looking to put up more points. Of course, they're going to need to score A LOT if they want to compete with an Alabama offense which arguably ranks among the best of all-time. Prior to the Irish game, Alabama had scored more than 40 in 10 straight games, including more than 50 in each of its previous three. Expect an extremely high-scoring affair. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 271 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State +10 v. San Jose State | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 68.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Florida/Oklahoma UNDER the total. As you may have heard, the Gators' offense has taken a pretty major hit. They'll still have their star QB but he'll be without his top FOUR receiving options. Those four guys (receives Grimes, Toney, Copeland and tight-end Pitts) combined for 2778 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. Obviously, that's significant. Meanwhile, the Sooners defense is better than the recent editions that have been beaten up by SEC teams. OU has allowed a mere 57 points its last four games. That's actually their best defensive stretch, in terms of points allowed, in the past six years. While the Sooners led the Big 12 with 36 sacks, the Gators led the SEC with 33. Oklahoma defensive end Ronnie Perkins said this of the Sooner defense: 'After suffering those two losses early in the season, the defense definitely turned it up. I definitely feel that switch. We've got great players all over the field. A lot of guys who have kind of been in it, took a lot of reps in this defense over the last two years. So we're a confident group. We play hard, play fast.'' Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 21-39 | Loss | -110 | 169 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY in the Lending Tree Bowl. The Panthers got the better of the Hilltoppers when these teams met in a bowl game in 2017. Three years later, I expect the Hilltoppers to settle the score. While the Panthers have the edge on offense, the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense. I like the momentum that WKU brings into this game; the Hilltoppers have won three straight, winning by a bigger margin each time out. They've only got one loss by more than four points in the past two months and that came at BYU, which was undefeated at the time. The Panthers have been involved in five games decided by seven or fewer points. Likewise, the Hilltoppers have seen five of their games decided by seven or less. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Hilltoppers are happy to be here and they're coming in hungry. While I like the outright win, in what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hawaii/Houston OVER the total. The last time these teams met was in the Hawaii Bowl in 2003. They brawled at the end of a wild 54-48 (3-OT) win by the Warriors. That was a long time ago. However, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair, this Christmas Eve. While it hasn't played in awhile, Houston has scored 83 points its last two games. I expect the explosive Cougars to have plenty of success against a suspect Hawaii defense which allows 420 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars, have given up 133 points over their past four, an average of more than 33 points allowed per game. Hawaii scored 38 points its last game after allowing 35 in its previous game. The Warriors, too, should have success on offense, facing a Houston defense which allows an average of 32.6 ppg. All things considered, I feel this number, which has come down a bit from its opener, is a little low. While they won't match the 2003 bowl, I look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis OVER 49.5 | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/FAU OVER the total. These teams have very different stats. FAU games have been low-scoring, the reason we're working with quite a low O/U number. Yet, Memphis games have averaged more than 61 points. While the Owls did have some low-scoring games, they come into this one off a high-scoring 45-31 loss. They've scored 24 or more in three of their last four and I expect them to have success against a supsect Memphis defense. The Tigers played 10 games this season. Nine of those produced a minimum of 56 points. FAU saw last year's bowl game finish with a score of 52-28, a game which finished above the number by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-19-20 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati -14 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bearcats have had a great season and I expect them to keep on rolling Saturday. With the exception of a 3-point win against UCF, Cincy beat every other opponent by a minimum of 14 points. It should be noted that that the game against UCF was on the road. This game, however, will be played at Nippert Stadium. The last three teams (ECU, Houston and Memphis) that have visited here have lost by scores of 55-17, 38-10 and 49-10. Going back further finds the Bearcats at 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS their last 18 at home. While Tulsa allows 19.9 ppg, Cincy allows just 15 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats' advantage is even bigger. Tulsa averages 27.7 ppg. Cincinnati averages 40.9. While I expect Tulsa to have trouble scoring, no team has kept Cincy to less than 36 points for more than two months. Bearcats roll. |
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12-12-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 15-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on V-TECH. Virginia is rolling. Virginia Tech is reeling. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion. A closer look at the Hokies' 4-game skid shows that the first was an unlikely 3-point loss against Liberty. That was followed by a 1-point loss against Miami. Each of those games absolutely could have gone either way. Getting stuck on the wrong side of both was tough to take though and the Hokies delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. Not a great effort but understandable, all the same. That was followed by a loss against Clemson. So, there's no shame in that. In other words, I'm not ready to write the Hokies off due their current slide. Coach Fuente summed it up by saying: " ... we've lost two heartbreakers then didn't play very well on the road and came home against the No. 3 team in the country and right in the middle of the game had some of the weirdest events I've ever seen occur. There's a little bit of context .... The bottom line is that I love what we are teaching, what they are retaining and where we are going." Beating their bitter instate rival won't get them a winning record but it will sure go a long way in getting rid of the bad taste in their mouths. With a bowl game lookling unlikely, this game is even more important. The Cavs haven't played a road game since way back on 10/24, when they lost by five, at Miami. In fact, a closer look shows that Virginia is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a combined score of 100-60. Speaking of road woes, the Cavs haven't won here since 1998. I expect a highly motivated V-Tech team to deliver its very best effort, continuing its homefield dominance in this series while covering the small number along the way.  |
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12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State OVER the total. Last year's game between these teams produced a whopping 79 points, a 41-38 Nevada win. I'm expecting another shootout for tonight's game, which will be played in Las Vegas. Note that the last three meetings between these teams, played in the state of Nevada, have all finished with greater than 70 combined points. Nevada is led by the top QB in the conference. Carson Strong has thrown for more than 2300 yards and 21 TDs. No other QB in the conference is close, in terms of TDs. That said, Spartan QB Nick Starkel has also quietly been getting it done. He doesn't make mistakes and has the best passer rating in the conference. Nevada, which put up 37 points last game, is going to throw the ball a lot, the best passing attack that the Spartans have faced. That will lead to big plays when the passes connect and time stoppages when they don't. The Spartans put up 35 points last time out though, the third time in the last four games that they're scored at least 34. Don't be surprised when both teams top 30, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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12-05-20 | San Jose State v. Hawaii OVER 58.5 | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hawaii/SJ State OVER the total. This game was originally supposed to be played at San Jose. However, with the covid restrictions in Santa Clara county, it was moved to Hawaii. It'll be the earliest start time for a game in Hawaii in nearly 20 years. The change of venue suits me just fine. In fact, I like it. The Spartans were going to score, regardless of where the game was played. They've scored 34, 28 and 38 points the past three games. The 28 came against a stingy SD State defense. The Spartans will put up a big number against a Hawaii defense which has allowed more than 30 points in four of its past five games. Now, with the game being played at Hawaii, the Warriors will also score. In three games here, they've averaged 32 ppg. These teams have played three straight 'overs' against each other and the past two years, the games have finished with 82 and 85 points. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on APP STATE. This is a big game between two good teams. While the Cajuns have the higher ranking, I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. After losing to Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers didn't hang their heads. They went out and hammered Troy. Now, they get a chance to redeem themselves by beating a ranked team. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Mountaineers have dominated this series in recent seasons. I believe that the Mountaineers have the better defense and that will ultimately lead to them contininuing their series dominance. Coastal Carolina was the only team to score more than 21 points against them. Each of the past five, besides Coastal Carolina, has scored 17 or less. While the Cajuns may get more than that, they won't get enough. Lay the small number. |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +12.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. I won with the Aggies in their last game, a 41-27 win over New Mexico. That was a huge win for them, as it was their first of the season. Now, with that monkey off their back, I expect the Aggies to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. With last week's win, Utah State is now 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS its past 15 home games. During that span, Air Force is just 5-8 SU on the road. In this season's lone road game, the Falcons managed only six points, a 17-6 loss at SJ State. While the Falcons did beat up on New Mexico last time out, that was awhile ago now; they haven't been playing much, due to covid cancellations. I expect that to work against them here, as the suddenly confident Aggies are coming "ready to play." Grab the points. |
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11-28-20 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss OVER 68.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miss. State / Ole Miss OVER the total. In a battle of Mike Leach against Lane Kiffen, each known for their offensive mindsets, we can expect plenty of points in this one. Ole Miss games are averaging more than 80 points this season. The Rebels score 41 ppg and the allow 40.9. The Bulldogs haven't played in nearly as many high-scoring games. However, they're coming off a relatively high-scoring affair against Georgia. QB Will Rogers was 41 of 52 for more than 300 yards. On the other side, however, the Bulldogs gave up more than 400 yards (and 4 TDs) through the air. The Rebels have scored more than 50 in b2b weeks, throwing for nearly 1000 yards. They may well exceed the 50 mark again with the Bulldogs chipping in plenty of their own. |
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11-27-20 | Oregon -13 v. Oregon State | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. They no longer officially call this game the "Civil War." That title was dropped several months ago. There's still no love lost between the two teams though and there's still a big class difference between them. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball. I like that the Ducks were tested by UCLA last week and how they responded and came through with a victory. Off that "close call," I believe they'll follow it up with a blowout win. The Ducks, who already covered at Washington State, are 6-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites. Their last visit here, almost exactly two years ago, saw Oregon, which was laying 18 points, win by 40, a 55-15 destruction. Including that result, the Beavers are just 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 home games, 0-3 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said this of last week's win: "We were a little bit out of sync, and like we told those guys, ‘Look, when you win, you don’t apologize for winning, you don’t get down for winning, you just recognize where you got to get better.' And we weren’t at our very best, and we know that we have to improve certain things." Expect the Ducks to "get better" and for them to deliver their biggest blowout of the season, thus far. |
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11-21-20 | USC v. Utah OVER 57.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC/Utah OVER the total. The Trojans can and will score. Utah should be able to do so, too. Kyle Whittingham had this to say of his team: "... We have some good things going for us on offense with very few new players and it being a veteran group. We expect to be productive on offense. The key is also how quickly this defense can come around ..." Indeed, the Utes lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball. Nine starters are gone from last year's defense. The Trojans will take advantage by putting up a big number. The OVER is 4-0-1 the last five in the series. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +6 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 93 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF. The Bearcats are having a great season and won't be easy to beat. However, I believe that the Knights are peaking at the right time and feel that they have the offense to do so. Indeed, UCF leads the nation with 619 yards and 44 points per game. The UCF offensive line has been playing great and will be the first team this season capable of handling the physicality of Cincy's defensive front. UCF took a bit to get going, understandable with all the pandemic stuff going on. The Knights are firing on all cylinders now though. UCF tackle Ed Collins noted: "The bye week after the Tulsa loss, we came together as a unit pretty good ..." Last year's game at Cincy was decided by just three points. The Knights won the previous three meetings, all by double-digits. Grab the points. |
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11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 61 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Purdue/Minnesota OVER the total. These teams have both faced some stingy opponents thus far, particularly last time out. Purdue comes off a game against Northwestern while Minnesota had to contend with Iowa. Both those teams are allowing less than 15 ppg, their defenses currently ranking among the nation's leaders. Neither of these teams are quite as stingy though, so both offenses will have a chance to "get healthy." Purdue did put up a respectable 31 points (at Illinois) in its lone road game. The Gophers, meanwhile, scored 85 points in their two games before Iowa, 44 against Maryland and 41 against Illinois. On the other side of the ball, it should be mentioned that the Gophers lost a ton on defense from last year and that's led to them allowing 35.8 ppg, worst in the Big Ten. Minnesota racked up nearly 500 yards of offense in winning last year's game by a 38-31 score. That one finished well above the total and I look for tonight's game to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green UNDER 59 | Top | 42-17 | Push | 0 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/BG UNDER the total. Six of the past eight meetings between these teams have fallen below the number. While last year's game was not one of them, we're working with a higher O/U number this season. (Last year's game had a final score of 49-7 and the O/U line was 53.5.) In a game where I expect the home team to struggle scoring, I feel that the bigger number is providing us with very fair value. I won with the Bulls last week but I also won a free play on their game to go 'under' the total. In both cases, I mentioned how the Buffalo defense was really stingy last season and that the Bulls had brought back a lot of players on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulls would go on to hold Miami Ohio to just 10 points and only 258 total yards. That was against the defending MAC champs. Now, they face a much worse Bowling Green team, one which scored just three points in its opening game against Toledo. Indeed, the Falcons are likely going to have trouble scoring in this one. Last week, the Bulls "aired it out," their QB enjoying a record day. Even so, the game stayed below the total. Facing an inferior opponent, I expect the Bulls to place a bigger emphasis on the ground game in this one. The Bulls are likely to put up quite a few points but not enough to get over this number; I've already noted I don't expect them to get much help from the Falcons. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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11-14-20 | UNLV v. San Jose State OVER 58.5 | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SJ State OVER the total. I won with the 'under' in the Rebels' first game. I also won with the 'under' in the Spartans' last game. However, in both those cases, the opponent was San Diego State. In both cases, the reason I was playing the 'under' was because I respected the SDSU defense and expected the Aztecs to slow the game down. I also mentioned that UNLV was learning a new offense. Things are different now though. The Spartans offense is quietly pretty potent. San Jose State scored 28 against SD State and they scored 38 points in their game before that. The Spartans should put up a big number against a porous UNLV defense which has allowed 34, 37 and 40 points. On the other side of the ball, the Rebels have been learning the offense and scoring more and more points each time out. They started by scoring only six in the game against the Aztecs. That was followed by 19 vs. Navy and 27 last time out. Last year's meeting had a score of 38-35. The year before had a score of 50-37. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU. This is already Hawaii's third road game in the past four weeks. They got crushed (at Wyoming) last time away from the island and this figures to be an even tougher venue. I expect the travel to catch up with them. Off last week's loss, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Last week's loss notwithstanding, the Aztecs have a very stingy defense. Expect Hawaii, which managed only seven points last time on the road, to have trouble finding the end zone. The Aztecs have additional motivation in this one as Hawaii has actually beaten them in b2b seasons, including a 31-30 upset, as double-digit underdogs, last time here. Its payback time today, the Aztecs keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Coach P.J. Fleck has turned the Gophers around, since his arrival in 2017. However, he has yet to beat Iowa. Even last year's team, which went 11-2, lost to the Hawkeyes. Needless to say, Fleck and the Gophers are extremely motivated to finally get a win in this series. They've got the offense to do it and they're playing at home. Last year's game was at Iowa and was decided by just four points. Yes, the Hawkeyes looked really good in beating up on Michigan State. However, they also lost by four points (at Purdue) in their lone road game. Additionally, Northwestern beat them by a point. Minnesota, young but talented, is getting better each time out. The Gophers are off a big win of their own and have scored more than 40 in b2b games. I expect Fleck to have them ready to play and look for them to give their guests all that they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover. |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boise/CSU UNDER the total. The Broncos have been going 'over' the total so far this season but I expect that to change tonight. Off their worst home loss in 24 years, the Broncos are going to be looking to improve defensively. The last time (9/15/18 vs. OSU) that they lost a regular season game by double-digits, they responded by holding Wyoming to 14 points, a 34-14 victory. The Cowboys had 0 points at halftime and seven going into the fourth. I say that the Broncos come out and dominate defensively right from the opening whistle, once again. Dating back to last season, the Rams have seen six of their past eight road games stay below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -117 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Cardinals lost a tough one, at Miami Ohio, in their opener. While they would have liked to have it, they can afford that loss. They can't afford to lose this one though. That Cardinals improved last year and narrowly missed a bowl game. They lost each of their final three games by four or less to finish at 5-7. Thats a bad taste that they're still trying to get rid of. This is the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Eagles earned a somewhat fortunate cover (SU loss) in their opener. However, they're one of the weaker teams in the conference and now they're playing their second straight on the road. Ball State believes it can take the next step this season. If thats to be the case, the Cardinals need to take care of business on Wednesday. The Cardinals can and wil score a lot of points. Ultimately, I don't expect the Eagles to be able to keep up. |
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11-07-20 | Washington State v. Oregon State UNDER 64 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on WSU/OSU UNDER the total. These teams have had some recent shootouts and they played a crazy 54-53 game against each other last year. However, that may not even get half that many here. This year, both these teams brought back a lot more production on the defensive side of the ball than on the offensive one. The Cougars have a brand new offense, as they're making the move from the "Air Raid" to the "Run-And-Shoot." While that may prove better in the long run, a brand new offense with a lot of new players can't be expected to click in its very first game. Expect more running plays to help chew up the clock. As for the Beavers, they lost QB Jake Luton to the NFL. That's never easy to replace an NFL quality quarterback. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
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11-07-20 | Tennessee -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -113 | 51 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Razorbacks have arguably overachieved. However, they're still one of the weaker teams in the conference. I feel that the Vols have an edge in talent. I also really like the fact that they had last week off. They'd had a tough stretch of games, so the bye absolutely came at the right time. Its given them a chance to regroup and to focus on taking care of business in this winnable game. While the Vols are slight favorites, as of this writing, its a small enough line that a SU win should also equal an ATS win. Thats noteworthy as Tennessee is 52-11 SU as a road favorite over the years. This season, the only time that they were favored on the road, the Vols took care of business by winning (and covering) at South Carolina. While Pittman is in his first season with Arkansas, this is year 3 of the "Pruitt era" in Tennessee. If the Vols want to get to .500, this is a game they absolutely need to win. The Vols are 4-1 SU the last five under Pruitt, after losing their previous two games. (The loss came at Alabama.) Desperate for a victory, expect them to bounce back. |
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10-31-20 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU/Utah State UNDER the total. At first glance, this O/U number may look a little low. However, with both teams expected to chew up the clock with frequent running plays, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair and feel that the number could easily be even lower. I won with the 'under' in last week's SDSU game. The Aztecs were stingy defensively, as I expected. They held the Rebels to just six points and 186 yards. UNLV had just 25 yards (and 0 points) at halftime! Part of that dominant performance stemmed from the fact that UNLV was very young and outmatched. However, it was also due to the fact that the Aztecs defense is really good. I expect the Aggies, who managed only 13 points and 203 yards in their opener, to also have trouble scoring against them. On offense, the Aztecs typically don't do anything too fancy. They ran the ball 46 times last week. In last week's analysis I noted the following: "...The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: 'I'm just going to be a distributor this year' ..." To their credit, the Aggies also kept running the ball last week. They had 43 rushing attempts. Look for yards and points to be tough to come by, the final combined score proving lower than many will be expecting. |
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10-31-20 | Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..." While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. |
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10-24-20 | UNLV v. San Diego State UNDER 51 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SDSU UNDER the total. This number came up a bit from where it was earlier in the week; I believe we're getting excellent value. UNLV is learning a new offense and is likely going to have trouble scoring. The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: "I'm just going to be a distributor this year ..." The UNDER is 7-2 the last nine meetings between these teams, a perfect 4-0 the past four seasons. Last year's game had an O/U line of 44.5 but finished with a score of 20-17. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-24-20 | Maryland v. Northwestern -10.5 | Top | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. |
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10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. All the talk is and will be about Saban. I'm more interested in the game being played on the field. We've come to know Alabama as an elite defensive team, over the years. The Tide are more known for their offense these days though, as they've got some elite players on that side of the ball. Georgia, on the other hand, has one of the best defenses in the entire country. Alabama still has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Tide defense is going to be very motivated, too. Both to show that Georgia isn't the only elite defense in this game and to show that they're much better than we saw last week. The Alabama offense hasn't faced a defense like this one though. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said this of his defense: "The atmosphere that's been credited on defense here is we're not letting them score." Last week, they limited Tennessee to less than one yard (-1) on the ground and 0 points, in the second half. The Bulldogs will be doing everything they can to chew up the clock when they're on offense. The last time that these teams met in October, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 48. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. There are some early similarities between the Demon Deacons and the Cavs. Both have 1-2 SU records. Both are 2-1 ATS.  These teams already have a couple of common opponents. Both have played Clemson. Both have played NC State. Each team went 0-2 in those games. Virginia's win was arugably more impressive though. The Cavs hammered Duke. Wake Forest's victory, though lopsided, was against lowly Campbell. (The Deacons were -34.5 point favorites.) So, the Deacons have yet to defeat a "real" team. While the Cavs may be without QB Brennan Armstrong, backup Lindell Stone completed 30 passes and threw three TDs last week. Coach Bronco Mendenhall noted: "Lindell did not have many practice reps at all with our offense. He was really working with our defense and helping us in that regard, and just that he came in and was effective and moved the football team, I was encouraged by that." Regardless of who is behind center, he'll be working behind an experienced offensive line and I expect the Cavs to get off to a faster start, something Mendenhall has been emphasizing. Mendehall also has an experienced and capable defense. Look for his team to emerge victorious, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston UNDER 62.5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Houston UNDER the total. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe this number will prove to be too high. While the BYU Cougars have been putting up a lot of points, they've also been very stingy defensively. In fact, they're only allowing an average of 11 points per game. None of their opponents have scored more than 20. The Cougars have only played one game. Though they did give up a lot of points, they actually only allowed 211 total yards. Indeed, Tulane scored two early defensive TD's which changed the outcome of the game and made Houston's points allowed look worse. The last meeting between these schools had an O/U line of 62.5 but finished with 57. I believe both defenses are better than they're being given credit for and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 123 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers have won by "only" 24, 49 and 18 points. Thats led to a poor start at the betting window and some to question how good this year's team is. I expect a visit from Miami to "get them going." The Canes are their toughest test yet, which is why the Tigers aren't favored by quite as much as they were in previous games. Note that they're 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 point range. During that span, they've gone 6-1 ATS in October, 14-4 ATS against winning teams and 15-5 ATS in conference play overall. The Canes are off a bye but that hasn't too helpful in recent seasons. They're 0-5 SU/ATS the past five times that they were in that situation. During that span, Miami was 4-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. While the Canes have indeed looked good, Clemson is the first winning team which Miami has faced this season. While Miami does have some great athletes, Clemson is still better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Tigers to silence their critics while providing Miami with a rude reality check. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both teams will be anxious to get back on track here. The Cardinals are more talented on both sides of the ball; I expect them to be the team which does so. In addition to giving up fewer points per game, the Cardinals average 29.7 ppg on offense, while GT averages just 19.3. After back-to-back games in the underdog role, Louisville finds itself favored again. The only previous time that the Cardinals were favored, they took care of business agianst Western Kentucky, a 35-21 win on 9/12. Meanwhile, this isn't a good look for the Yellow-Jackets. They're 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, most recently losing by 28 (49-21 on 9/19) in that role earlier this season. Before slowing down at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had racked up more than 500 yards against Miami. I expect them to have a big day against this defense and don't feel that the Jackets will be able to keep up. |
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10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 71 | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tulsa/UCF UNDER the total. The Knights come in determined to get some payback from last season's 34-31 loss. While they'll probably get their revenge, I feel that it'll come in the form of an improved defensive effort. Last season, the Golden Hurricane dropped 34 points on them. I don't expect the Knights to allow that to happen again. Consider that Tulsa has only been able to play one game and that it managed only seven points, while allowing just 16, in that one. As for the Knights, yes, they do indeed have a potent offense. They've scored 49 and 51 in their two games. I believe that Tulsa's defense is somewhat better than the two they have faced though. The Hurricane moved to a 3-3-5 scheme a couple of years ago and are much better defensively since doing so. Last season, they allowed less than 400 yards per game for the first time since 2012. This year's defense didn't return a ton of 'starters' but did return a lot of players with experience. As defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie pointed out: "I don’t know that we're quite as green as what on paper it would look like. We've got a lot of guys who got not just a little bit of playing time, but a great deal of experience on the football field." Look for the Tulsa defense to slow down the Knights just enough to keep the combined final score beneath the generously high number. |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU -23.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. This figures to be a one-sided blowout. The Cougars have crushed both opponents which they have faced. They beat Navy 55-3 and they beat Troy 48-7. They should be able to do the same to an LA Tech team which is essentially in rebuilding mode on defense. Yes, the Bulldogs are 2-0. However, they've given up 30 or more points in both games. Last game, Houston Baptist scored 38 against them. Indeed, BYU will have no trouble scoring. This hasn't been a kind role for the Bulldogs over the years; they're 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU) the past 20 times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31.5 point range. I say the Cougars, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against CUSA opponents, put up a big number with the overmatched Bulldogs being unable to keep up. |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe -9 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win. |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. |
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09-24-20 | UAB -6 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 81 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers lost QB Tyler Johnston to injury. That's not ideal. However, its been factored into the line and we're getting UAB at a bit better price as a result. Importantly, backup Bryson Lucero has played in both games and with the Blazers off last weekend, he's had plenty of time to prepare for the starting role. I believe that the Blazers, who started the season a 10-point win before losing at Miami, have a talent advantage in this one. Keep in mind that this is an extremely experienced UAB team, one which feels capable of winning the rest of its games. Indeed, UAB returned 18 starters. The Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in recent seasons when laying points and they're 4-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Look for the Blazers, who rarely lose in their home state, to improve on those stats, delivering a statement win over their "instate rival."Â |
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09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss -5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. The Bulldogs are off a good season and they've got a 'big name' coach. This is a unique 'pandemic situation' though. LA Tech didnt play its first game due to Covid issues. It wasnt just a few players either. Nearly the entire roster has been out; more than 50 players were unavailable for the Baylor game. They've been dealing with extensive testing and stress and have been unable to properly practice or prepare. Hurricane season doesn't help matters. Remember, the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year's defense, too. Meanwhile, Southern Miss already has a game under its belt and now they've had a chance to work out some of their issues. The fact that the Golden Eagles lost that one should add to their determination here. The South Alabama loss notwithstanding, the Golden Eagles are typically pretty tough at home. Expect them to show no sympathy for their guests in this one. |
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