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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-22 | Yair Rodriguez v. Brian Ortega -155 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -155 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
I'm backing ORTEGA against Rodriguez. (8*) Both fighters are hungry for a win. The winner will likely fight for the title. In addition to having a height and reach advantage, Rodriguez has more power. Ortega has the superior submission game though. Remember, he's been training in Gracie jiu-jitsu from a young age. Ultimately, I believe that will prove the difference. An aggressive fighter, Rodriguez is always coming forward. That makes him an exciting fighter to watch but it's also going to play into Ortega's hands. After losing to Holloway in 2018, Ortega took time off and reinvented himself. I believe we're going to see the best version of him. Remember, he gave the champ (Volkanovski) all he could handle - you may have seen Volkanovski just dismantle Holloway. I like Rodriguez but he's in the wrong place, at the wrong time. |
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07-09-22 | Cortney Casey v. Antonina Shevchenko -164 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing SHEVCHENKO in tonight's fight against Cortney Casey. Antonina will never be confused for her sister, Valentina. That said, this is a favorable matchup for her. Casey, who has struggled in the UFC, is likely to try and trade strikes with Shevchenko. That should play into Antonina's hands, as her biggest problems have come on the ground. Shevkenko has an advantage in terms of significant strikes; she connects on 56% of hers, while Casey lands 39% of hers. Not only does she dish out more big hits, she absorbs fewer of them. She receives just over three significant strikes per minute while Casey takes just over four per minute. Those edges will add up to an important victory for Antonina. |
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07-02-22 | Max Holloway v. Alexander Volkanovski -187 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
I'm backing VOLKANOVSKI against Holloway. Here's what I said prior to the last fight: "While the line may appear steep, given what we saw from the first fight, I believe it could easily be even higher. Volkanovski gives up five inches in height but actually has a 2-inch reach advantage. AV, who had a striking advantage in the first fight, really can do it all. Volanovski's leg kicks were a problem for Holloway in the first first and figure to be an issue once again. Keep in mind that Volkanovski is also very comfortable on the ground. Yes, Holloway will make adjustments but so will Volkanovski. I say AV brings too much to the table and that this is a favorable matchup which will continue to go his way." Sure, it ended up being close but Volkanovski still won. Since then, however, Volkanovski has looked dominant while Holloway has taken a lot of punishment. I say Holloway missed his chance. A third time will not be the charm. |
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06-26-22 | Mateusz Gamrot v. Arman Tsarukyan OVER 4.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
I'm taking the OVER in the Tsarukyan/Gamrot fight. These two have a lot of similarities. I see the fight going the distance. This figures to be a tough fight for both. Each have shown that they can finish lesser opponents. However, when stepping up in class, their fights are more likely to be decided by the judges. While Tsrukyan has predicted a KO, even he doesn't see it coming until the fourth round. For his part, Gamrot noted: "We have changed the game plan, we have to be more patient during the fight. It's a different game." I see the clock getting chewed up with a lot of time on the ground and this one ultimately going longer than many will be expecting. |
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06-18-22 | Julian Marquez v. Gregory Rodrigues -172 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing Gregory Rodrigues on Saturday night. While I respect Marquez, I think Rodriques is a little stronger. I like that Rodrigues has been a lot more active than Marquez. Rodrigues can win in a number of ways. He's got a black belt in jiu-jitsu but he's also got power when on his feet. He should be the more technical striker and I believe he'll have the edge on the ground. He's got five KO victories, four by submission and two wins by decision. Expect him to take care of business. |
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06-11-22 | Ramazan Emeev v. Jack Della Maddalena -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
I'm backing Jack Della Maddalena on June 11. Jack Della Maddalena is on a mission. He's won 11 straight and he's determined to make it 12. I don't feel that Ramazan Emeev will be able to stop him. While JDM has a pair of losses, they were his first two fights. Since then, he's just continued to get better. Emeev isn't a big finisher. His last seven fights have all gone to the scorecards. He lost a split decision last time out. Maddalena, on the other hand, scored a first round KO in his last fight. It's no secret that Emeev is going to try and take the fight to the ground. He'll likely be successful at times. However, he hasn't shown that he's that capable of finishing or scoring big points, even when he is on top. JDM has shown that he's got a decent (75%) take-down-defense. Also, his contender series win over Angel Loosa showed he can handle grappling, when needed. (Loosa is capable on both his feet and on the ground.) After that fight, Bisping had this to say of JDM: "If someone is going to come in the UFC and have a great career, you need to see how they're going to handle adversity like that, and he passed the test with flying colors." When the fighters are on their feet, JDM is going to score big. He's a high volume striker. JDM lands 8.4 significant strikers per minute compared to Emeev's 2.5. While I like JDM's chance of a KO, I also feel that he'll be ahead on points, should this one go the distance. |
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05-07-22 | Randy Brown v. Kristina Williams +100 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
I'm backing KHAOS WILLIAMS on Saturday night. Williams is on his way up and Randy Brown is in his way. Williams is fast and powerful. While he's not as tall as Brown, he has essentially the same reach. While Williams could potentially struggle against an elite grappler, Brown doesn't fall into that category. He's likely going to trade strikes, as he always does, which will ultimately spell trouble for him. In what should be an exciting fight, I see Williams scoring the KO. |
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04-16-22 | Andre Fialho v. Miguel Baeza -155 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
I'm backing Miguel Baeza. Baeza is coming in on a mission and I believe that André Fialho, still inexperienced in the UFC, will prove to be the perfect opponent for him. Baeza had this to sayd: "When it comes to everything last year and now this year, I'm just really looking forward to proving that I'm one of the best welterweights in the world. I really think that. I need to come out this Saturday and put a stamp on it and put myself in the right direction again, to fight some of the best guys in the division. So I’m excited to do that ... It's super important, especially after what happened last year; I feel like I dropped two fights I should’ve won and I felt like I was doing well until certain things happened, so I think it’s important that I come back and get back in the green and shake up the welterweight division." Of course, those are only words. However, Baeza really should have the superior skills here. Baeza was originally slated to fight Dhiego Lima. I think he would have beaten him, too. However, Fialho may be an even better matchup for him. Though Fialho has experience, its not in the UFC. He's only had one fight here. He'll be coming forward and be willing to exchange and that should fit right into Baeza's hands; I see Baeza scoring the KO/TKO. In the event Fialho does manage to hang around, I expect Baeza to be comfortably ahead on the judges score cards. |
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03-19-22 | Makwan Amirkhani v. Mike Grundy -179 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -179 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I'm backing MIKE GRUNDY on Saturday. To say that Grundy is highly motivated would be an understatement. Not just because he's off b2b losess. Not just because he's in his own country. His father, recently diagnosed with a terminal illness, will be sitting "cage-side." Grundy has said that he's devoting this fight to his dad. Grundy commented: "This fight is to put on a performance for my dad. Sadly, my dad has been diagnosed with a terminal illness, and he's gonna be there cageside watching me on the night, and that is what it means to me. There is absolutely no chance that this guy is gonna put me away on Saturday night. You can put me in with the heavyweights on the main event, and they won't put me away either because I'm there to put on a performance in front of my dad, and that is what it means to me, and that's the main thing. I'm gonna dedicate this fight and this win to my dad." While Grundy is off b2b losses, those were better fighters than the one he'll face here. Amirkhani has dropped three in a row himself. Both fighters can grapple but Grundy has the striking edge. I like his chances of scoring the KO. However, if it does go to a decision, he should be comfortably ahead. In the unlikely event of it being really close, the home crowd and background story will make it hard for the judges to go against Grundy. Expect him to earn the victory for his dad. |
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03-12-22 | Troy Jones v. Javid Basharat -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing JAVID BASHARAT on Saturday night. Jones is off a loss and is now 13-7. On the other hand, The "Snow Leopard" is undefeated. On a mission to become the first Afghan champion, he's ready to show the world that he means business. Not only does Basharat have an undefeated record but he's finished all 11 of his fights. He won by submission last time out but is also more than capable of scoring the KO. He commented: "My favorite way of finishing somebody? That's a good question. I don't know, I just like to finish. A rear-naked choke feels good because it's like a very dominant win, you know, but at the same time a knockout feels great too." Basharat went on to say: "You can expect another finish as usual from me. There's not much else to say. Whatever he gives me I'm going to take and I'm going to be looking for a finish the whole time." I expect the Snow Leopard to back up his words and to pick the lesser skilled Jones apart. He'll likely be more expensive the next time he fights. Look for an impressive UFC debut. |
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03-05-22 | Sergey Spivak -180 v. Greg Hardy | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
I'm backing SPIVAK on Saturday night. Hardy is in over his head. Again. He's lost b2b fights and this is not a good matchup for him. These two were supposed to fight at UFC 270. At the time, Hardy was orginally scheduled to face Olenyk. However, Olenyk backed out and it was then supposed to be Spivak vs. Hardy. That probably wouldn't have gone well for Hardy but at least Spivak would have been fighting with less prep time. Hardy remains an elite athlete and he's got bigtime power. He's not a good wrestler though and he's far from elite when exchanging strikes. Consider one of their common opponents in Tuivasa. Hardy hurt Tuivasa a bit early on but then got KO'd. Spivak, on the other hand, took Tuivasa down six times before choking him out with an arm triangle. I see Spivak getting Hardy off his feet and winning by either ground and pound or submission. |
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02-19-22 | Nikolas Motta -165 v. Jim Miller | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing MOTTA on Nikolas Saturday night. Miller has had a fine career. He's getting long in the tooth though and he's standing in the way of Motta's dreams of bigger fights. Certainly, Miller has the edge in experience. He's also the better grappler. Neither of these things should be taken lightly. That said, Motta has plenty of experience outside of the UFC. Importantly, he's also taken on a quality grappler Joe Solecki. Not only did he avoid getting submitted but he knocked Solecki out. Here's what Solecki said afterwards about Motta: "...I had two good fights then I ran into Nikolas Motta and fought the two best rounds of my career and got slept, and embarrassingly so ..." Recall that Solecki defeated Miller, less than a year ago, handing him his 16th loss. This fight was pushed back; it was originally supposed to happen five months ago. That should only benefit Motta. Motta, who started training for this fight in Brazil, noted: "Last year I trained two or three months to fight Jim Miller and studied his game. And Nova Uniao was the best place to train to fight someone like Jim Miller, a jiu-jitsu guy. … Doing my camp with Rafael dos Anjos was great for my evolution. It couldn't be better. It felt great to be in Brazil and train in the place where I grew up, Nova Uniao ..." I say that Motta has learned enough to limit Miller's takedowns and ultimately I look for him to knock the veteran out. |
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02-12-22 | Tai Tuivasa v. Derrick Lewis UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tuivasa/Lewis to finish UNDER the total. These guys will both be "swinging for the fences" in this one. As Tuivasa noted: "It's either going to be my head or his head. We entertain the fans, so we're coming here to take heads off. That's it." For his part, Lewis noted: "I'm coming to knock his ass out." Given that he holds the UFC record for KO's, Lewis knows a thing or two about finishing fights. Twenty-one of his 26 wins have been by way of KO while 13 of Tuivasa's 14 wins have come that way. Don't blink. This one lives up the hype with a first round KO. |
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01-23-22 | Cyril Gane -147 v. Francis Ngannou | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
I'm backing CIRYL GANE in tonight's Main Event. This should be a good one. Two top heavyweights fighting for the belt. They've even got a personal history. Ngannou is the champ and has the more recognizable name. Yet, its Gane who is the favorite. That says a lot about how good he is. Ngannou has awesome power. He's got a lot going on though, contract disputes, talks of fighting Tyson Fury etc. Whether or not all that proves to be a distraction, Ngannou will be facing a fighter that can do it all. Gane is faster and has a better defense than the opponents that Ngannou has been beating up on. Gane has also never tasted defeat, something Ngannou can't claim. I say that Gane's speed and technique prove to be too much and that he remains undefeated and becomes heavyweight champion. |
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12-05-21 | Jose Aldo v. Rob Font -145 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing ROB FONT on Saturday night. Analysis to follow |
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11-13-21 | Kristina Williams v. Miguel Baeza -145 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing BAEZA on Saturday. This should be a good fight. While neither has ever been finished, both fighters have the ability to deliver a knockout. However, Baeza has the advantage of also being the superior grappler. So, he's got more ways to win. That said, I see Baeza winning this one by KO. His leg kicks will be effective. Williams is exciting, athletic and powerful but he tends to take a lot of shot. After Baeza slows him down by working the leg and body, he delivers the finish. |
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11-06-21 | Frankie Edgar v. Marlon Vera -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing MARLON VERA on Saturday night. Edgar, now 40 years old, has been around forever and his skills have declined. Vera, still a few weeks short of his 29th birthday, is on a mission. Edgar is in his way. Vera had this to say: "I don't think the UFC is looking for almost a win, – they're looking for shocking performances, and that's what I know I can do. I've fought the who's who of the division. I've had setbacks. I've lost fights before. But I'm barely losing them. I really don't even lose them. Adjustments have been made to get past those fights. … It's just a matter of time until I get that belt." I say age catches up with Edgar and that the well-rounded Vera backs up his words with an impressive KO. |
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10-09-21 | Deontay Wilder v. Tyson Fury OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
43I'm playing on the OVER in the Fury/Wilder fight. As you're likely aware, this is the third fight between these guys. The first went the distance. The second was a Fury TKO in the seventh round. You may recall that Wilder's corner threw in the towel in that one. Reportedly, immediately after the fight, with all his team around him, Wilder demanded to know who threw in the towel. Then, he fired him (Mark Breland) on the spot. That being the case, I don't see Wilder, or his team, quitting in this one. His new trainer (Malik Scott) had this to say: "I would never stop a fight with Deontay Wilder ever. I know what he's trying to do to people and I know the responsibility that he gave me and the talks that we've had over year. This wasn't nothing new about him not wanting a trainer that would throw a towel in." Obviously, both fighters have the ability to score an early KO. However, they've also both proven very tough to knockout. Both fighters are heavier than ever; they won't be going down easily. Don't be surprised when this one goes the distance. |
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10-09-21 | Marina Rodriguez v. Mackenzie Dern -185 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -185 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
I'm backing Mackenzie Dern on Saturday. Both these women have impressive records and both come in on a roll. Rodriguez is an excellent striker but Dern, who had three "performance of the night" victories in her past four wins, isn't about to trade punches with her. She had this to say: "I have a better chance of knocking her out than she has of submitting me,” Dern said of the matchup. “In striking, the fact one hand lands can end the fight. On the other hand, on the ground, it's a little bit harder to end up in a guillotine because I have time to defend myself and things like that. But my idea in this fight is not to trade with her. She has so many years of experience in muay thai and striking. I think the best way to beat a striker is by taking her to the ground. I really don't want to get elbowed in the head. Of course, I can go 10 rounds on the feet with her if I have to, I'm not afraid of doing that, I'm trained for it. I'm ready. I won't be scared on the feet with her but I think my hand can create openings to take her to the ground." Expect Dern to do exactl that (take Rodriguez to the ground) en route to her fifth straight victory. |
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10-02-21 | Niko Price -182 v. Alex Oliveira | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
I'm backing PRICE on Saturday night. These two both need a win and they know each other well. (Between them, they've got 17 kids.) They'll both be fighthing hard and it should be a good battle. Both are pretty well-rounded fighters. Each is capable on the ground and on their feet. That said, I expect Price to have the edge. He's got more power and KO ability and if it goes the distance, he's going to have an edge in volume of strikes. I don't expect that to happen though. Rather, I see Price wearing him down and scoring the knockout. Price agrees. He had this to say: "Get it done. Finish. No more judges. No more worrying about what the refs do and what they don't see. I'm coming in there to get my dub, simple as that. It won't be going 15 minutes." Look for him to get it done. |
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10-02-21 | Niko Price v. Alex Oliveira UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
I'm taking the UNDER in the Price/Oliveira fight. These two both need a win and they know each other well. (Between them, they've got 17 kids.) They'll both be fighthing hard and it should be a good battle. Price had this to say: "Get it done. Finish. No more judges. No more worrying about what the refs do and what they don't see. I'm coming in there to get my dub, simple as that. It won't be going 15 minutes." Oliveira, who hasn't made it out of the first round in losing his past two fights, had this to say: "My camp was very medieval ... I know we can't disappoint. I'm going there to give them what they want ... I'm hungry, man. I'm here for a fight." Price's fights rarely go long. This one likely won't either. |
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08-07-21 | Ode Osbourne v. Manel Kape -192 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm backing KAPE on Saturday night. While Osbourne has a significant reach advantage, Kape is favored for good reason here. He came into the UFC with very high expectations. That was due to having a successful time in the Rizin Fighting Federation, in Japan and due to the fact that he's got all the tools needed for success. Things haven't gone as planned here though, a couple of decision losses. It should be noted that most had Kape winning two of three rounds in the second of those fights. So, he easily could be 1-1. Either way, he's coming in desperate and Osbourne should be the perfect opponent for him. Osbourne does some of the same things that Kape does but just not as well. The fact that Kape missed weight by a few pounds will hurt him in the wallet but should help him in the ring. This is a 125-pound weight class and he weighed in at 129. Kape has the ability to win by KO/TKO or by submission. I say that he doesn't leave anything to the judges this time. |
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07-31-21 | Uriah Hall v. Sean Strickland -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
I'm backing STRICKLAND in the main event. Hall has fared well as an underdog recently but I believe that this is a very favorable matchup for Strickland. Hall is 36 years old and has nine losses. While he's got some impressive KO's over his career, ,many of his 17 wins are suspect. Strickland, 30, is going to come right after him. He won't give Hall any room to work. Welterweight didn't go that well for him but Strickland is undefeated in the middleweight division. He's 5-1 as a favorite in the UFC. While I feel Strickland can knock out, or outpoint Hall, he also has the option to take him to the ground. In addition to having an edge in takedowns and takedown defense, Strickland also lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute, as compared to 3.34 per minute for Hall. No upset for Hall this time. |
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07-24-21 | TJ Dillashaw v. Cory Sandhagen -185 | 1-0 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm backing COREY SANDHAGEN in Saturday's main event. This should be an exciting fight. Dillishaw is a former champ, one who is coming off a 2-year suspension. Sandhagen is an up-and-coming fighter, off b2b impressive KO's. These two know each other as they used to spar regularly in Colorado. While Dillishaw was the star back then, he even acknowledges that Sandhagen often got the better of him. Note that Sandhagen, 29, is the much taller fighter with a considerable reach advantage. Needless to say, Dillishaw has something to prove. If he wins, many will forgive and forget his previous scandal. However, if he loses, many will credit his previous success to cheating. While Dillishaw has done a lot of talking, this will not be an easy return. In his 2-year layoff, Sandhagen has fought five times. Dillishaw, now 35, would have indeed benefitted from his previous drug use. Otherwise, why risk it? I say age, inactivty and a tough hungry younger opponent, determined to get his title shot, will prove to be too much for Dillishaw. |
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07-24-21 | Randy Costa v. Adrian Yanez -220 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm backing ADRIAN YANEZ on Saturday. Like the main event, this one should be exciting. When Costa wins, he does so by KO. He's going to come out firing right from the opening bell. Yanez is favored for good reason though. He knows what Costa is all about and he's going to be ready. An excellent counter-striker, the composed Yanez will weather the early storm and take advantage of his opportunities. Yanez, in fact, is excited by the fact that Costa will be aggressive. He noted: "He's going to go out there and try and be in your face the whole entire time. I want that type of a style fight. I know I can thrive in that situation. My last two fights in the UFC, I'm not going to say they were easy, but I wasn't really posed too many big problems.....I feel very confident, because I know he’s going to bring that dog out of me, and I know I can really dig deep." It's going to be wild but ultimately I believe Yanez is the slicker and more complete fighter and I see him scoring the KO. |
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07-17-21 | Sergey Morozov v. Khalid Taha -130 | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm backing KHALID TAHA on Saturday. These guys both have something to prove. Both are going to be hungry and both are going to come out swinging. While Taha may take some shots along the way, I expect his extra UFC experience to prove the difference. Though he got submitted last time out, Morozov will still likely try and take the fight to the ground. That's easier said than done though. Taha, who has previously trained with Khabig Nurmagomedov, has the striking edge. Taha's last loss came against a very tough Raoni Barcelos, who was a late change of opponent for Taha. He showed a lot of heart in that one and I expect him to have learned from the experience. The line has come down from its opener and I like "The Warrior's" chances of scoring the KO. |
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07-10-21 | Greg Hardy v. Tai Tuivasa -128 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I'm backing TUIVASA on Saturday night. Both these guys have serious power and this one's unlikely to end in a decision. While Hardy is obviously a great athlete, I believe Tuivasa is the more polished fighter. I expect him to knock Hardy out. Tuivasa started out hot in the UFC but then lost three in a row. That would have been it for some fighters. However, he dug deep and got better from it. He's won his last two in impressive fashion. While Hardy has the reach and height advantage, Tuivasa has a considerable edge in experience. Hardy got KO'd last time he stepped in the ring. I believe that showed that he's not yet ready for the better fighters in the division. I look for the resurgant Tuivasa to prove too much for him. |
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07-10-21 | Niko Price v. Michel Pereira -171 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm backing MICHEL PEREIRA on Saturday. Price takes chances and that makes him an exciting fighter. He's got some big knockouts on his résumé. Pereira is favored for good reason though. He's always had serious talent and his last two fights have shown that he's now putting it all together. As I said, Price takes chance. That leads to him taking a lot of hard shots. He's also not very good on the ground, an area where Pereira will have the edge. While he could win by KO, submission or decision, one way or another, I see Pereira taking this fight. |
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06-12-21 | Brandon Moreno v. Deiveson Figueiredo -188 | 1-0 | Loss | -188 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm backing DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO on Saturday night. These guys fought to a draw in their first fight. While he's still a considerable favorite, this time, we're able to get Figueiredo at a far better price. Here's what I said prior to the first fight: "A few weeks ago, in my preview of UFC 255, I stated the following: "The Royval/Moreno winner could find himself fighting Figueiredo next." Dana White didn't waste any time in making my prediction come true. As expected, both Moreno and Figueiredo won their November 21st fights. On December 12th, a mere few weeks later, the two will meet at UFC 256. It should be a good one. I believe that Moreno is better than Perez, the fighter that Figueiredo submitted in the first round last month. However, Figueiredo is a slightly bigger favorite for this fight than he was against Perez. (Most shops are at -300 or higher.) That's because the public has caught on that the flyweight champ, "God of War," is deadly both on the ground and on his feet. As I mentioned before his last fight: "I won with Figueiredo (19-1) in his last fight, as he took care of Joseph Benavidez in the first round. That victory came via submission, the seventh of his career. However, the flyweight champ is more known for his hands. He's got serious power for this weight class." Moreno is no slouch though. Royval was a pretty good fighter in his own right and Moreno stopped him in the first round. That brings him to an impressive 6-0-1 in the UFC. Moreno had this to say about the champ: "I'm more technical, I have more tools and I’m a lot quicker than him. The only thing you can say about Deiveson is that he’s a one-shot fighter, so I have to make that my advantage. I know that he can surprise. I know that he has a lot of tools, good elbows, good kicks. but I have a lot more speed than him and that’s going to be my advantage against him."I'm not about to lay -300 or more with Figueiredo. Not against a really good fighter. Not when both are taking the fight on short notice. I'm not about to go against the champ either. He's that good ... " This time, however, we're able to get an angry Figueiredo, now with plenty of time to prepare, at a far better price. Figueiredo had this to say: "First of all, he speaks a lot, and I’m the guy to shut his mouth on Saturday. I'm going to knock out that guy in the first round. Pay attention, I'm going to knock that guy out in the first round." While it remains to be seen if Figueiredo will back up his words of a first round KO, one way or another, I expect him to get the victory. |
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05-15-21 | Andrea Lee v. Antonina Shevchenko -115 | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm backing Shevchenko on Saturday night. This line has come down considerably from its opener. Shevchenko was originally nearly a -200 favorite. I feel that the current much lower price is providing us with excellent value. While Antonina isn't the dominant fighter that her sister (Valentina) is, she's definitely no slouch either. Certainly she's capable of trading strikes with Lee, who has now lost three straight fights. While Lee is the better wrestler, I don't think she's going to things as easy as she expects. Both fighters have Muay Thai backgrounds and Lee will make the mistake of standing up for too long. Shevchenko is coming off arguably the best fight of her career and is full of confidence. I like her chances of scoring another knockout. |
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05-08-21 | Neil Magny v. Geoffrey Neal -190 | 1-0 | Loss | -190 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm backing GEOFF NEAL on Saturday night. Both fighters are off a loss; both need a win here to get them back into contention. I believe that Neal will be the one to get it. Neal "Handz of Steel" is the superior striker. While he might be vulnerable against a world class grappler, Magny doesn't fall into that category. Though he's a solid grappler, he was dominated on the ground in his last fight. Neal has a very capable take-down defense and I feel that Magny will have trouble recording take-downs. That will spell trouble as Neal has far more power when the two are standing. Magny has tasted defeat nine times; this will make 10. |
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05-01-21 | Travis Browne v. Kai Kamaka -141 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -141 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
I'm backing KAI KAMAKA on Saturday night. Both these fighters lost their last fight. In Kamaka's case, he took the fight that he lost on 1-week's notice. Prior to that, he'd won seven straight. Brown, on the other hand, has lost two in a row. While Kamaka has three defeats, Brown has now lost eight times. He has yet to show he can win in the UFC. Kamaka had this to say about Brown: "He might be trying to fight the guy that took a fight on seven days notice off of moving to Vegas seven days prior, and if he does, he’s got it all wrong. He just has to be prepared for me to be in his face with a little bit different tactics. I’m excited, I’ve seen the type of fights that he likes to put on and I like to do just the same, I think I do it better though." While he does give up some height and reach, I feel pretty much the same; that Kamaka does everything a little better. Kamaka is working with some of the best and expect that to serve him well here. He commented: "I'm training along side Francis Ngannou, Dan Ige, Aljamain Sterling. It’s just crazy to see. I was in a small group session with DC (Daniel Cormier) coming into the room to help, give Francis some pointers. Francis and Aljamain, and I was one of the other couple guys that was allowed in the room. I don't think that it was by coincidence. They see my mental capacity and the love that I have for MMA and where I want to be and that’s the kind of stuff I want to do. I want to be surrounded by greatness. I want to become greatness as well." Both fighters need this one and both are going to be hungry. That should make for a good fight. In the end, I expect Kamaka to emerge victorious. |
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04-24-21 | Rose Namajunas v. Weili Zhang -196 | 1-0 | Loss | -196 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm backing ZHANG WEILI on Saturday night. If you watched Weile's last fight, an all-out war with Joanna Jędrzejczyk, you'll know why everyone is excited. It was absolutely one of the best fights of 2020. In fact, many consider it the greatest women's fight of all-time. Weile proved she had the heart of a champion. She took a lot of punishment but kept coming forward with everything she had. Eventually, she nearly rearranged Jędrzejczyk's face. It should be noted that Weile had a heck of a time even getting to that fight, bascially a 1-month journey, and that her training schedule was off. That's not the case this time. Namajanus is absolutely no slouch. She's a former champ and is hungry to get the belt back. I think she made a mistake when she started making comments about China though and questioning whether Weile was being told what to say. Rose was quoted as saying: "Better Dead Than Red" and other comments. Weile is a hero in China and is absolutely determined not to let those comments go unpunished. Zhang lost her first professional fight, a decision in the China MMA League in 2013. Since then, she's won 21 straight. She's absolutely focused for this fight and I expect her to emerge victorious. |
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04-17-21 | Luis Pena -144 v. Alex Munoz | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
I'm backing LUIS PENA on Saturday night. When Luis "Violent Bob Ross" Pena burst on the scene, he did so with a lot of hype. He had the big hair, the nickname and he got off to a hot start. He may not have been quite ready for it though and needed some time to grow. He's had that time now though and is no longer over-hyped and over-valued. In fact, many seem quite down on him. Thats created excellent value for what should be a favorable matchup for him. No question that Munoz is an excellent wrestler. However, Pena is the far more well-rounded fighter and he's got a big edge in striking ability. Pena had this to say: "I'm feeling amazing actually. I can't lie, I've had some ups and downs in this camp because I have a tendency to almost overwork myself. But after taking a little bit of time to rest and recover during camp. I came back and my coaches were just blown away by how much that really helped me grow..." Expect him to have his arm raised. |
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04-10-21 | Mike Perry v. Daniel Rodriguez -135 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
I'm backing DANIEL RODRIGUEZ on Saturday afternoon. This line came down from its opener. I believe that's providing excellent value with Rodriguez. Perry has a few quality wins and he's definitely fought some tough opponents. That said, I don't see him winning a decision here and his last knockout was back in 2017. He's just 3-6 his past nine. Rodriguez, who has never been KO'd, is also off a loss. However, while Perry is 14-7, Rodriguez is 13-2. Prior to that setback, he'd won nine straight. Rodriguez is taller with a few inches in reach. While he does tend to get hit a lot, which should make for an exciting fight here, Rodriguez lands a lot of strikes. Expect him to have the advantage and emerge with the victory. |
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03-27-21 | Gillian Robertson v. Miranda Maverick -160 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing MIRANDA MAVERICK. These two were supposed to fight last month but Robertson got sick. I was all set to back Miranda in that one and I like her every bit as much now that they'll finally fight. Here's what I said last month: "I like Miranda Maverick in the first prelim of tonight's card. Robertson has the following plan: "I'm trying to get in and out of there as quick as possible. So, straight for the throat and get the submission win." However, as Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth." While Robertson is possibly the superior grappler, Maverick is no slouch in that department. She's a brown belt in Brazlian jiu-jitsu and a strong grappler. She's also got solid take-down defense which will aid in helping her keep this fight from going to the ground. With both fighters standing, I expect Maverick to have a clear advantage. Look for her to land the higher volume of strikes and for that to ulimately prove the difference." |
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03-21-21 | Derek Brunson v. Kevin Holland -169 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -169 | 179 h 17 m | Show |
I'm backing Kevin Holland on Saturday, March 20th. Brunson is capable of beating up lesser foes. However, when he steps up against quality opponents, he tends to stumbe. I believe that he's going to be outclassed in this one. Holand was 5-0 in 2020, three of those wins earning him performance of the night bonuses. At 28, he's a lot younger (Brunson is 37) and he's extremely hungry to pass this next test. Holland has a height and reach advantage. He lands more significant strikes per minute and he does so with a higher level of accuracy. Holland knows Brunson will want to get this fight to the ground and he's been working hard on his takedown defense. He's got a major edge when the two fighters are standing and the fact that its a 5-round fight, as opposed to a 3-round one, works in his favor. Holland wins. |
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03-06-21 | Thiago Santos v. Aleksandar Rakic -152 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 150 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing RAKIC on Saturday night. Having "earned" a split decision loss against Jones, Santos is obviously no slouch. Still, he's off b2b losses and now has eight of them. Both fighters are well-rounded, both can grapple and both are strong on their feet. Lets not forget that Santos, now 37 years old, has dealt with serious knee injuries though. Rakic is younger and his big leg kicks are going to be tough on Santos. Not only does Rakic land more strikes per minute, he's taller with a reach advantage. While it should be exciting while it lasts, I see the younger Rakic winning this one by KO. |
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02-27-21 | Maxim Grishin v. Dustin Jacoby -165 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUSTIN JACOBY. I believe that there's a class difference between these fighters. I believe that Grishin's style will prove ideal for him and I'm expecting Jacoby to deliver the KO. Jacoby was hoping for a bigger name than Grishin and probably deserved one. He'll get one after taking care of business here though. Grishin knows how to wrestle but is considered primarily as a striker. Jacoby, who used to be a professional kickboxer, is just better at it. Jacoby had this to say: "This is what I do for a living. If I go in there get another knockout which I plan to do, maybe we turn it right around in April or May. I'm trying to stay active and be in the top-10 by the end of the year." Expect Jacoby to have his hand raised. |
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02-20-21 | Aiemann Zahabi v. Daniel Rodriguez -188 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -188 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm backing DRAKO RODRIGUEZ on Saturday night. Zahabi has lost two in a row and the UFC didn't do him any favors with this matchup. Rodriguez is hungry and looking to make a splash in his debut. Off three straight wins, he brings in momentum and confidence. Zahabi, at least, will get paid. Rodriguez missed weight and will forfeit 30% of his purse to Zahabi, as a result. However, while that may help Zahabi's wallet, it's going to benefit Rodriguez tonight. Expect him to be both bigger and better, handing Zahabi his third straight setback. |
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02-13-21 | Polyana Viana v. Martin Murray -137 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -137 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
I'm backing MALLORY MARTIN on Saturday night. Martin could easily be a bigger favorite. She's a passionate fighter on a mission to climb up the rankings. I don't believe she'll let Viana stand in her way. Both fighters are brown belts in Brazlian jiu-jitus. Both are decent strikers. While Viana has an edge in reach department, I believe Martin is the much better fighter. Martin has been sparring with Rose Namajunas, one of the best in the world, which can only help. Martin had this to say: "Team Elevation. I've been training with Shana Dobson and Montana de la Rosa. J.J. Aldrich has been with us, and also Rose Namajunas. So, I've been getting lots of rounds with Rose, and it's been super helpful. I get those high-level rounds, which are very important, and I'm sparring with a former champ and probably future champ. It's really cool." Though Viana is off an impressive win by arm bar last time out, she'd lost four in a row before that. While it should be a good fight, I expect Martin's training with Namajunas and co. to pay off, as she takes care of business and continues her climb up the UFC ladder. |
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02-06-21 | Alistair Overeem v. Alexander Volkov -190 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing ALEXANDER VOLKOV on Saturday night. If it seems like Overeem has been around forever, its because he has. His first pro fight came at 19, in 1999. While he's had some big fights, he's now 40 and at the end of this career. I won't be surprised if Volkov finally retires him. Volkov has been favored five times previously and he's got the money in four of those. He lands a lot of strikes, a high volume fighter. He's got the better chin and superior cardio. He doesn't get hurt easily. While Overeem has been on a good run, it comes to an end here. |
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01-23-21 | Andrew Sanchez v. Makhmud Muradov -143 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
I'm backing MURADOV on Saturday night. There's a class difference between these two and I believe that the line could easily be higher. Yes, Muradov takes the fight on short notice. That works the same for Sanchez though, as he was originally scheduled to fight Muniz. Muradov hasn't fought in awhile but that isn't his fault. He's eager to get back and remind everyone just how good he is. Muradov, a protege Floyd Mayweather, has both a height and reach advantage. He's also got a 4.97 to 4.57 edge, in terms of significant strikes landed per minute. If he doesn't score the KO/TKO, he should be comfortably ahead on points. |
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12-12-20 | Cub Swanson v. Daniel Pineda -159 | 1-0 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm backing DANIEL PINEDA in tonight's fiight against Cub Swanson. This should be an exciting fight as neither of these veterans are looking to go to the scorecards. While Swanson is a fan favorite, I expect Pineda to be the one who ultimately gets the stoppage. Pineda had been out of action for awhile but he returned in a big way last time and he comes in full of confidence and with a chip on his shoulder. Swanson, now 37, also won his last UFC fight but before that he'd dropped four straight. Since his win, he's had to deal with a major knee injury. With Pineda exploiting that weakness with plenty of kicks and takedowns, this may be the last we see of Swanson. |
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11-28-20 | Parker Porter v. Josh Parisian UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -134 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
I'm taking the UNDER 1.5 rounds in the Parisian/Porter fight. With both fighers throwing haymakers right out of the gate, this one isn't likely to last long. Parisian finally gets his shot at the Octagon and he's coming in to make an impression. Porter has very little, in terms of defensive skills. So, that should give Parisian plenty of opportunity to win with an early KO. However, Porter does possess both power and submission skills of his own. Parisian's last two wins both came in the first round while Porter is off a first round loss. This one ends in the first round, too. |
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11-21-20 | Mauricio Rua v. Paul Craig -170 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 82 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing PAUL CRAIG on Saturday. Without a doubt, Rua is a legend. From Chuck Liddell to Jon Jones, this guy's fought everyone. He's even fought tonight's opponent, Paul Craig. That one ended in a draw. Since, then Rua took some more punishment in a split decision victory, while also getting older. (He'll turn 39 on Nov. 25th.) He's further from his prime than he was the first time these guys fought. After Craig beats him in this one, we're likely to hear talk of retirement. Craig, on the other hand, still has dreams of a title and is still getting better. He stepped in and took the first fight on short notice, in Rua's own backyard (Brazil) and still nearly won. After the first fight, which he took on two week's notice, Craig commented: "We were very unfortunate when we started this camp, we literally signed the contract at the start of the week and by Friday we had a serious cut above our eye. Five stitches later, we couldn't do any sparring, couldn't do any wrestling. Everything we did during that fight camp was around skill-based exercises." Things are different this time. No longer in Brazli, Craig has had plenty of time to prepare. Craig has submitted his opponent in 12 of 13 victories but I feel he's also capable of knocking "Shogun" out. Rua's legacy will remain secure but the younger Craig settles the score in this one. |
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11-14-20 | Rafael dos Anjos -165 v. Paul Felder | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
I'm backing RAFAEL DOS ANJOS on Saturday night. I don't generally go to my highest rating for favorites of this size. However, I love how this one sets up for dos Anjos and feel that the price could easily be much higher. For starters, dos Anjos is dropping down from Welterweight, where he'd been fighting some of the better fighters in that weight class. Now, at lightweight, he'll face an opponent much smaller than the one's he's been facing. To his credit, Felder is an exciting fighter. He's had some good wins. However, he's taking this fight on really short (five days) notice. His last fight (February) was a loss and he talked about retiring. I didn't feel the following comments, made by Felder, inspired much confidence: "With everything going on in the world, the sad things going on in people's lives -- losing their jobs and suffering. We just lost Alex Trebek to pancreatic cancer. I was like, 'Man, you're still 35. You're young, you're in shape. Save the day. Let's go get paid, let's have fun. You're fighting a legend.' What do I have to lose?" To me, he's already got his excuse and he'll be happy to take his beating and get his paycheque. As Felder mentioned, he's fighting a "legend." Doing so on short notice is going to prove awfully tough. After he wins this one, dos Anjos believes he can get a fight against McGregor. While it remains to be seen if a McGregor fight (they were previously supposed to fight) will come to fruition, I fully expect dos Anjos, who was previously (2015, 2016) the champ at this weight class, to take care of business against Felder. |
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11-08-20 | Glover Teixeira v. Thiago Santos -200 | 1-0 | Loss | -200 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm backing THIAGO SANTOS on Saturday night. At 36, Santos is no spring chicken. However, in comparison to the 41-year old Teixeira, he's relatively young. Santos hasn't been around for awhile. In fact, he hasn't fought since the summer of 2019, as he sustained a knee injury. That was no ordinary fight. Santos took Jon Jones, long considered the "baddest man on the planet," to a split decision. Teixeira also fought Jones (back in 2014) but he got dominated. While Teixeira has been winning of late, I believe that he's been a bit fortunate to do so and that he's severely outclassed here. He's vulnerable to taking shots while on his feet. I say Santos knocks him out. |
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11-07-20 | Cláudia Gadelha v. Yan Xiaonan -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 205 h 0 m | Show |
I'm backing YAN XIAONAN. This is an interesting fight. While Gadelha is a quality grappler, Xiaonan is the far much stronger striker. I believe that her superior footwork and striking will prove to be the difference. Both fighters won by decision last time out. However, Gadelha's fight was close (13 of 17 media outlets thought she lost) while Xiaonan dominated hers. These two were supposed to fight in September but the fight was postponed due to Gadelha pulling out with an injury. Xiaonan was "pissed off" as she got word the day after arriving from China. The UFC offered her a chance to fight someone different on Fight Island or wait and fight Gadelha. She chose to stick with this fight as she knows Gadelha has a high ranking and because she believes that she can beat her. She's determined to get the belt and/or a showdown vs. fellow Chinese fighter, Zhang Weili, which she says "would be the biggest moment in Chinese sports." Gadelha is tough but a determined Xiaonan wins this win by decision or KO. |
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10-24-20 | Joel Alvarez v. Alexander Yakovlev UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on the UNDER 2.5 rounds in the Alvarez/Yakovlev fight. For lightweights, these guys are both very tall. I don't see them going the distance. Alvarez is 17-2 as a professional. Fifteeen of those 17 wins came by submission and two were by KO/TKO. None were by decision. So, if Alvarez wins, history says, it won't be by decision. The same is true of Yakovlev's recent history. While he's had some recent losses, when he wins, it's also by submission or KO/TKO. He's won just two of his past five but those two wins came in the first and second rounds, a second round submission and a first round KO/TKO. Don't blink. This one should also finish quickly. |
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10-24-20 | Joel Alvarez -160 v. Alexander Yakovlev | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show |
I'm backing ALVAREZ on Saturday afternoon. For lightweights, these guys are both very tall. I don't see them going the distance. Alvarez is 17-2 as a professional. Fifteeen of those 17 wins came by submission and two were by KO/TKO. None were by decision. So, if Alvarez wins, history says, it won't be by decision. I believe that's exactly what we'll see. While Alvarez is up-and-coming, Yakovelev is going the other way. He's won just two of his past five. Alvarez wins, likely by submission. |
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10-17-20 | Claudio Silva v. James Krause -157 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 75 h 51 m | Show |
I'm backing JAMES KRAUSE on Saturday night. Its true that Silva has an impressive record and also that Krause took this fight on relatively short notice. However, Krause is favored for good reason, in my opinion. As for taking the fight on short notice, as a coach, Krause is always training. He was actually planning to fight Silva several weeks earlier, too. But, he received a text from UFC saying that it was off and Silva would fight someone else, Muslim Salikhov. Then, for "undisclosed reasons" on Oct. 4th, it was back on. So, he'd had some time, previously, to think about Silva. Either way, Krause is coming in determined. Losing his last fight left a bad taste in his mouth and this is a fighter that will suit him well. I believe these guys will prove to be about equal on the ground, where they're both very capable, but that Krause will have a signifiant edge in the striking department. When on his feet, Silva comes forward and attempts to throw with a lot of power. He's aggresive. That'll make for a good fight but it'll also play in Krause's hands. I say Silva, now 38 years old, suffers the second loss of his career, his first in the UFC. |
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10-10-20 | KB Bhullar v. Tom Breese -240 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm backing TOM BREESE on Saturday. Brees has battled injuries throughout his career. However, the highly talented fighter is healthy for this one and I expect him to enjoy a significant advantage. While Brees is experienced, Bhullar makes his UFC debut. Though these guys were originally supposed to fight last week, Bhullar still took this one on short notice. While he's excited to be here, the UFC didn't do him any favors. He's going to find the going tough against Brees, who is strong both on his feet and on the ground. Expect a one-sided victory. |
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10-10-20 | Ali Alqaisi v. Tony Kelley -214 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm backing TONEY KELLEY on Saturday. Both fighters come in hungry; a win would be huge for either. Both fighters lost their UFC debut but that was the fourth defeat already for Alqaisi. Indeed, Kelley is favored for good reason. He's smooth on his feet and has a strong defense. He also landed far more significant strikes (7.6 per min) than AlQaisi. I don't see AlQaisi knocking out or submitting Kelley. I do, however, feel Kelley has a chance at the KO. Should he not get it, he should be comfortably ahead on the scorecards. |
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10-10-20 | Stephanie Egger v. Tracy Cortez -175 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm backing TRACY CORTEZ on Saturday. I believe that Cortez could easily be a bigger favorite. Egger is a replacement, which means that Cortez didn't get that much time to study her. However, the fact that Egger is a grappler won't bother Cortez at all, as she's excellent on the ground herself. Taking on the fight on short notice (two weeks) figures to hurt Egger. She had this to say about getting the call: "I enjoyed my after-fight time. I ate a lot. Then, I got the call from my manager.... the first step I took was on the scale to check my weight..." To her credit, Egger took the fight and made weight. However, don't expect her to be as prepared, or as ready to go, as Cortez. |
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10-04-20 | Irene Aldana +100 v. Holly Holm | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
I'm backing IRENE ALDANA on Saturday. This is a very big fight for both these ladies. Not only is it the "Main Event" but the winner puts herself in good position to take on the champion Amanda Nunes. White has stated that Aldana would, indeed, get a shot at Nunes, if she can take care of business against Holm. Obviously, Holm is the bigger name. She's a warrior, too. No doubt about it. That said, she'll be 39 in a couple of weeks and has taken a lot over the years. At 32 and 5-1 in her last six, Aldana is still up-and-coming and in her prime, arguably fighting better than she ever has. In case you missed it, Aldana shocked many when she knocked out Vieria, in less than a round. Vieira had previously been dominant and was the one who was expected to get Nunes. Go watch that fight again (you can find it online for free and it only takes a few mins) and watch Aldana. Vieira was a serious fighter - I don't think Holm would have beaten her - but Aldana moved beautifully and then deliverd an awesome KO punch. I say, its her time. I think Holm's style will suit her well and I expect another KO. |
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10-03-20 | Nassourdine Imavov v. Jordan Williams UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 107 h 30 m | Show |
I'm taking the UNDER 2.5 rounds in the Imavov/Williams fight. Both fighters will be making their UFC debut and each will be looking to make a splash with an impressive victory. Neither wants to see it go the distance. Williams has had 13 professional fights. Only two have gone the distance. Imavov has 10 fights under his belt and seven of those ended in the first round. Last time out, "The Russian Sniper" finished Jonathan Meunier in the first round. Don't blink. This one won't last long. |
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09-27-20 | Paulo Costa v. Israel Adesanya -160 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 199 h 49 m | Show |
I'm backing ISRAEL ADESANYA on Sept. 19. This is a bigtime fight. Both these impressive fighters are undefeated. Both are talking a lot of trash. They genuinely don't like each other. Without a doubt, Costa is very powerful. That said, I feel that Adesanya's precision and counter-striking ability will prove to be the difference. Costa is going to try and come forward and bring the fight to the champ. I feel that will play into Adesanya's hands. Because Adesanya was a bit lackluster in his win over Romero, many were quick to forget just how dominant he'd been before that fight. That sentiment, in turn, has led to a very reasonable line. Expect Adesanya to silence the critics, reminding everyone just how special a fighter he really is. |
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09-12-20 | Michelle Waterson v. Angela Hill -120 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing ANGELA HILL on Saturday night. This fight was originally supposed to be the co-main event. However, as its now the main event, due to Teixeira/Santos being postponed, its a 5-round fight. I feel that favors Hill. Waterson has struggled against fighters who land a lot of strikes, like Hill. The longer this fight goes, the bigger the edge in volume Hill figures to have. While its a big fight for both, look for Hill, the first Black American woman to headline a UFC, to emerge victorious. |
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09-05-20 | Augusto Sakai v. Alistair Overeem -143 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 124 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing ALISTAIR OVEREEM on Saturday night. Sakai comes in with arguably the more impressive record. He's 15-1-1. Overeem, on the other hand, is 46-18. I don't think Sakai is quite as good as his record indicates though and I believe that he'll struggle against the powerful and experienced Overeem. I successfully backed Sakai when he beat Arlovski last year. Many will see this one the same way; like Arlovski, Overeem is getting up in years. However, I see Overeem and Arlovski completely differently. Arlovski was clearly past his prime and I don't believe thats the case with Overeem. Yes, he's 40. The same age Arlovski was. However, he's won three of his past four and easily could have won all four. He's coming off a TKO of Walt Harris and is full of confidence. Also, Sakai was pretty fortunate to even get that decision against Arlovski. Sakai's style is perfect for Overeem, too, as he doesn't have the handspeed advantage that some younger fighters might. Overeem really is a complete fighter. In addition to being an excellent striker, he's got solid takedown ability and can pound away on the ground. Expect Overeem to teach the younger fighter a lesson. |
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08-29-20 | Maki Pitolo v. Impa Kasanganay -130 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
I'm backing IMPA KASANGANAY on Saturday night. If you haven't heard of Kasanganay, you will soon. He's undefeated (7-0) and I expect that to still be the case when he wakes up Sunday morning. Pitolo, unlike Kasanganay, has already tasted defeated six times. At 13-6 overall, he's 1-2 in the UFC. Yes, that's some extra experience - but that's experience with losing. In addition to being an excellent athlete, Kasanganay is the superior grappler. Pitolo moved up in weight class (and lost) last time and is a naturally small middleweight who would probably be better served going back down to welterweight. I say Kasanganay keeps on rolling. |
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08-15-20 | John Dodson v. Merab Dvalishvili -240 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm backing DVASLISHVILI on Saturday night. While an 11-4 record may not seem like much, Dvaslishvili is at the top of his game. He's won four straight by (unanimous) decision, averaging 12.5 takedowns in his last two fights. Overall, he averages nearly nine takedowns for his UFC career. Thats a lot of activity and I dont believe Dodson will be able to keep up. Dodson, who has lost 11 times, will need a KO to win this fight and I don't see that happening. |
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08-15-20 | Ashley Yoder v. Livinha Souza -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing LIVINHA SOUZA on Saturday night. I believe that this will prove to be a mismatch and that Souza could easily be a considerably larger favorite. Both fighters are off a loss. For Souza, it was just her second ever. At 13-2, she's hungry to return to her winning ways. For Yoder, it was her fourth loss in six fights. She's just 7-5. While Yoder is a brown belt in Brazlian Jiu-Jitsu, Souza is a black belt. Expect that difference in class to be evident, "The Brazlian Gangster" ultimately taking care of business with a submission win. |
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08-08-20 | Aleksei Oliynyk v. Derrick Lewis -188 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing DERRICK LEWIS on Saturday night. I really like this matchup of striker vs. grappler. Lewis will try to knock out Oleinik while Oleinik will try and submit Lewis. Considering that Cormier is the only person to ever submit him and Lewis has been a pro for a decade, the latter is going to be difficult. Lewis has scored knockouts in 18 of his 23 wins. I feel that Oleinik will be victim #19. True, at 35 years old, Lewis is no spring chicken. However, Oleinik is much older, at 43. I expect Lewis to come out with a ton of energy, his take-down defense helping to keep the fighters standing up long enough for him to record the KO. |
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08-01-20 | Bobby Green v. Lando Vannata -150 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -150 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
I'm backing Lando Vannata on Saturday night. These guys don't like each other. They previously fought to a draw and both are talking a lot of smack. Both think they won the previous fight and both want to make things right. The reality is that Vannata would have won that fight if a point wasn't taken away by an illegal knee. Importantly, I believe that Vannata has evolved more as a fighter since the previous meeting than Green has. Sure, Green is off an impressive win, which is stuck in bettors' minds, however, remember, he's dropped six of his previous seven decisions and that he hasn't had back-to-back wins since 2013-14. I say that a patient Vannata takes care of business, leaving no doubt this time. |
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07-25-20 | Mike Grundy v. Movsar Evloev -185 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing EVLOEV against Grundy. Both fighters have excellent records. However, while Grundy has previously tasted defeat, Evloev (12-0) remains undefeated. He's gone the distance in each of his first two UFC fights, winning unanimous decision in each. During that 30-minute span, he's recorded an impressive nine takendowns while only being taken down once. However, this is a guy who also delivers 4.3 strikes per minute. Indeed, the 26-year old Russian is very well-rounded. Before coming to the UFC, seven of Evloev's 10 wins were by stoppage. Grundy, 33, hasn't fought since March of 2019. (Both Evloev's UFC wins came after that.) Expect the younger man to remain undefeated in this one. |
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07-18-20 | Joseph Benavidez v. Deiveson Figueiredo -200 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 63 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm backing FIGUEIREDO on Saturday night. There's a lot of talk about this rematch. Benavidez is on record saying that its personal and that he wants to hurt Figueiredo after learning that the Brazilian had reportedly bragged about head-butting him in the first fight. Also, with Figueiredo missing weight in the first fight, people are saying he cheated. So, Figueiredo also has much to prove. Keep in mind that Figueiredo dominated the first fight and that he's 18-1 compared to 28-6 for Benavidez. Figueiredo is younger and he's got a reach advantage. While Benavidez obviously wants revenge, wanting and getting are two entirely different matters. I believe Figueiredo will silence the critics with another dominant win. |
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