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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-28-14 | Stanford v. UCLA -4.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -106 | 96 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #338 Take UCLA Bruins over Stanford Cardinal (Friday 3:30 pm ABC) The Bruins got the victory over their cross town rivals last Saturday and now have their sights set on an appearance in the PAC-12 Championship Game with a victory against Stanford on Saturday. The Cardinal continue to be overvalued all season long and after they lose today they will finish out the season at a disappointing 6-6. The mystic of David Shaw is starting to fade in a big way and you can bet Jim Mora is out for revenge after a tough loss last season in Palo Alto. UCLA is much better on offense and Brett Hundley is playing outstanding football of late. The Bruins still have an outside chance to make the 4 team playoff with victories the next two weeks and they will make a statement in this affair. Stanford is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. UCLA is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record. |
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11-22-14 | Fresno State +8.5 v. Nevada | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 1 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #207 Take Fresno State Bulldogs over Nevada Wolfpack (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN U) Fresno State is coming off a bye and they are playing better of late. Nevada is coming off a tough loss to Air Force and they suffered some injuries in that contest. Nevada is not an explosive offensive team to take advantage of a weak Bulldog defense. I expect this game to be close and go down to the wire. Both teams are still alive in the West Division of the MWC and Fresno needs to win out to go bowling. Expect this game to go down to the wire and we will collect with whoever comes out on top. Fresno State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams with a winning home record. |
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11-22-14 | USC v. UCLA -3.5 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 102 h 32 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #206 Take UCLA Bruins over USC Trojans (Saturday 8 pm ABC) I am not a big Jim Mora fan as a coach but he seems to be the King of LA. His Bruins have beaten the Trojans the last two years (underdog in both of those games). UCLA has been playing better of late and Brett Hundley is still a solid quarterback that can beat you with his arm or his legs. USC will have their moments but they are just not the same type of team that they were in the last decade. USC is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games. UCLA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played during the month of November. |
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11-22-14 | Louisville v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 97 h 4 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #180 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Louisville Cardinals (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Notre Dame is coming off a humiliating loss to Northwestern and many believe that their season is crumbling at the moment. I am not one of those people and feel they will bounce back in a big way today against Louisville. Both teams have issues at quarterback as the Cardinals will be playing their back-up quarterback in this game in Reggie Bonnafon. Despite their performance the last couple of weeks I still believe in this Notre Dame defense and feel they will be able to contain the running game of Louisville. Everett Golson is an effective quarterback when he does not turn over the football and he will be able to move the football on this aggressive Louisville defense. Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Louisville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. |
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11-20-14 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2 | 26-20 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #112 Take West Virginia Mountaineers over Kansas State Wildcats (Thursday 7 pm FS1) I am just not a big believer in Kansas State this season. They are a solid football team that does not beat themselves but I just do not see a ton of playmakers that will allow them to consistently win games on the road. We went against Kansas State in their last game at TCU and won easily. West Virginia has been hit or miss this season but they are a solid team at home and have already beaten Baylor this season. Unranked team that is favored over a ranked team usually brings success and we will again ride that rend. |
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11-15-14 | San Diego State v. Boise State -14 | 29-38 | Loss | -100 | 104 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #360 Take Boise State Broncos over San Diego State Aztecs (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN U) This is another game that Boise State is the much better team playing at home and also has revenge from last year. Despite two early losses, Boise State is in great shape to run the table to finish 10-2 and host the MWC Championship Game next month. The Broncos have won 17 of their last 18 home games and the Aztecs have a very weak quarterback. If Boise State can shut down the running game of SDSU, the Broncos will win this game by twenty plus points. When the Aztecs lose on the road it usually comes by a big margin and this will be the best team they have faced all season long. |
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11-15-14 | LSU +2 v. Arkansas | 0-17 | Loss | -104 | 102 h 41 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #363 Take LSU Tigers over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 8 pm ESPN 2) The Razorbacks are a much improved team in year two of the Bret Bielema regime but they still have a major hurdle that they have yet to clear. Arkansas has yet to win a SEC game since 2012. It now seems to be a mental block and if the game is close into the fourth quarter this team just finds ways to lose. LSU is coming off a brutal game with Alabama last week and many feel this is a prime spot for a letdown. I am not one of those people and feel they have the defense to shut down the Arkansas run. LSU has won the last three games in this series. Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. |
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11-15-14 | Michigan State v. Maryland +12.5 | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 38 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #400 Take Maryland Terrapins over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 8 pm BTN) The Spartans saw their hopes for a berth in the college football playoff come to an end last week with a home loss to Ohio State. They now must travel to unfamiliar territory to play a decent Maryland team that is already bowl eligible on the season. Truth is that Michigan State is not anywhere near as great on defense as they were last season. Michigan State gave up 568 yards last week to Ohio State. Maryland plays aggressive on both sides of the football but this game is more about fading Michigan State. I truly believe Maryland has a chance to win this game straight-up and getting double digits is just icing on the cake. |
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11-15-14 | Florida State -1 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 102 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #371 Take Florida State Seminoles over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Everyone keeps saying Florida State will run the table but yet the pointspreads in their games say otherwise. Miami was ranked No. 7 in the country when these two teams met last season and got pounded by 27 points in a game that was not close. Florida State has won their last 4 games in Miami and I just do not believe this young Miami quarterback can exploit this FSU defense. Since Miami moved out of the Orange Bowl to play at Sun Life Stadium, there home crowd edge has been nonexistent. Florida State still has the best player on the field in Jameis Winston and he has not lost a game when he is the starting quarterback. Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Expect FSU to have a strong following in South Florida, as the Noles punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game. |
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11-15-14 | UL-Lafayette v. Louisiana Monroe +7 | 34-27 | Push | 0 | 101 h 38 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #392 Take ULM Warhawks over Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 3) This battle of Louisiana features the top team in the Sun Belt in Louisiana. This rivalry has featured numerous upsets by the underdog including last season when the Warhawks went into Lafayette and won by three points (+14 underdog). In fact the last five meetings this game has been decided by 4, 1, 1, 16, and 3. Getting around a touchdown with the home team is too good to pass up in this game. Louisiana is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. |
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11-15-14 | Northwestern v. Notre Dame -17.5 | 43-40 | Loss | -106 | 97 h 9 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #378 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Northwestern Wildcats (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) For the second straight year Northwestern is one of the most disappointing teams in college football. Their offense has been atrocious of late scoring just 18 points per game. If Michigan had Notre Dame’s offense they would have pounded Northwestern last week in Evanston. Now the Wildcats must take a bus to a tough environment against a team that is ready to take out their frustrations on somebody. Northwestern is 1-14 straight-up against Notre Dame. The Wildcats are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games overall. |
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11-15-14 | Nevada v. Air Force -2 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 96 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #344 Take Air Force Falcons over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 2 pm themwc) By now you know that we have a great feel with this Nevada team and have not lost a selection this year in any of their games. Air Force is for real and yet they continue to be undervalued with the odds makers each and every week. People are remembering the Falcons 2-10 performance last season and forgetting the quarterback injuries that plagued the 2013 squad. They do not have any of those issues this year and are facing a team that could not stop their third straight quarterback last season. In 2012 when these teams met Nevada gave up 461 yards rushing. In 2013 when these two teams met Nevada gave up 375 yards rushing to a team playing a third straight quarterback. Nevada does not pass the ball well to take advantage of a suspect Falcon secondary, they are a running team like Air Force. There is a reason the line has swung 4 points toward Air Force in this game. |
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11-15-14 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -6 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 94 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #334 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) The winner of this game has the inside track to the west championship and a berth in the Big 10 Title Game against Ohio State. We will side with the team that has the much better defense in Wisconsin. The Badgers were a mess on offense earlier this season despite having two of the better running backs in the conference. Things are progressing in the passing game with Joel Stave and if this team can pass a little that just opens up things even more for Melvin Gordon. As for Nebraska, much like Wisconsin they have a big time running back in Ameer Abdullah but he is a little banged up at the moment with a knee injury and will not be 100% for this game. Nebraska also have a major hurdle to overcome when playing Wisconsin as two of the last three meetings have been blowouts for Wisconsin, losing by 39 and 31 points. Coach Bo Pelini was all but fired at the end of November last year and he is just not a big time coach. Wisconsin wins this games and takes control of the Big 10 West. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 home games. |
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11-08-14 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -3 | 49-37 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #188 Take Michigan State Spartans over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Would go higher on this selection if not for the great respect I have for Ohio State Coach Urban Meyer. That being said, Michigan State is better on both sides of the football and we will lay the small change tonight with the better team. Michigan State has a lot of play for because I believe they will make the 4 team playoff if they win out. Michigan State has not beat Ohio State in East Lansing since 1999 and you can be sure Coach Mark Dantonio has reminded his team about this numerous times this week. Ohio State has yet to record a quality win this season and this is the game not having Braxton Miller will catch up with them. Sure the Buckeyes have blown out the rejects of the conference but that does not mean they have beat the best team in a night game on the road. Michigan State is 10-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. |
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11-08-14 | Kansas State v. TCU -6 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 102 h 37 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #196 Take TCU Horned Frogs over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 7:30 pm FOX) I must admit that I do not envision TCU having this type of turnaround, especially on offense. That being said, this team has a great chance to win out and make the College Football Playoffs. The turnaround has come on offense where Trevone Boykin has already thrown 22 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. He also has the ability to beat you with his legs and that will give fits to the K-State defense. TCU is 7-1 ATS this season and 4-0 as a home favorite covering the spread by an average of 16 points each game. |
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11-08-14 | SMU v. Tulsa -12 | 28-38 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 4 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #156 Take Tulsa Golden Hurricanes over SMU Mustangs (Saturday 12 pm CBSSN) How can a 1-7 team be favored by double digits? Answer is that they are playing a team that is 0-7 and SMU might be the worst team in FBS this season. The Mustangs are a total mess losing their quarterback and coach early in the season. The Golden Hurricanes have lost 7 straight games but they have been much more competitive in their games than have the Mustangs. Tulsa has outgained their opponents by 20 yards per games, whereas SMU is being outgained by 251 yards. SMU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. Tulsa has a quarterback and that will be enough to beat MSU by twenty points. |
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11-08-14 | Iowa -1.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -106 | 94 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #123 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Minnesota Golden Gophers (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Big 10 Game of the Year. Minnesota is doing the same thing again! They beat up on a weak schedule to start the 2013 season and history is again repeating itself. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing loss to Illinois two weeks ago and that is not when you want to have a bye week which occurred last week. Iowa on the other hand is also 3-1 in the Big 10 and they are coming off their best performance of the season dominating Northwestern from start to finish. Minnesota was playing much better than Iowa when these two teams met in the Twin Cities last year (Minn was 6-1) and Iowa dominated that game from start to finish winning 23-7. Iowa has outscored Minnesota 41-0 in the first half in their last two meetings. Iowa has also been outstanding on the road covering the pointspread in 8 of their last 9 road games. This is just a case of two teams heading in opposite directions. Minnesota will be lucky to win one of their last four games (they will be an underdog in all four games). Iowa always losses a game they should not lose early in the season but by the end of November this team has things figured out and you can expect another monster effort today in Minneapolis, a short drive for many Hawkeye fans. Iowa has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. |
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11-01-14 | San Diego State +3.5 v. Nevada | 14-30 | Loss | -106 | 104 h 46 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #408 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over San Diego State Aztecs (Saturday 10:30 pm CBSSN) San Diego State is 3-1 in the MW but those three victories have come against the three worst teams in the league (UNLV, New Mexico, & Hawaii). Their loss came against Fresno State, another sketchy team. Nevada is playing much better football of late having won two straight games including two outstanding performances in the second half. San Diego State was much stronger in 2013 and Nevada still took them to overtime in San Diego. The Pack have a major edge at the quarterback position and that will allow them to win this game by double digits. Nevada has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. |
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11-01-14 | BYU v. Middle Tennessee State +3.5 | 27-7 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #356 Take Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS Sports Network) The spread has really come down and the odds makers are finally catching up to the talent of BYU. But that being said there is no way they deserve to be favored on the road against a decent Blue Raider team. BYU has lost 6 straight games against the spread including our top play last week (Revenge Game of the Year). MTSU also have revenge on their minds and is coming off a bye week. MTSU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. |
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11-01-14 | Maryland v. Penn State -3.5 | 20-19 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #326 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Maryland Terrapins (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Penn State took Ohio State to the wire last week and felt they got the short end of the officiating stick. Expect them to bounce back in a big way against a Maryland team that got run over by Wisconsin last week. Penn State should be able to pick apart this Maryland team in the passing game and this is a must win game for them if they want to go bowling. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Penn State pulls away in the second half to win by double digits. |
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11-01-14 | Utah State -2.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 112 h 17 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #409 Take Utah State Aggies over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 11 pm the MWC) Yes I know Utah State has lost three quarterbacks to injury this season and they are likely down to people in the parking lot, but they still have enough to beat Hawaii. Nevada did not play very well last week especially in the first half and still pounded Hawaii (a late TD by the Warriors made the score closer). Utah State has by far and away the best defense in the Mountain West and I was encouraged by the Kent Myers who came in and moved the football once Craig Harrison went down. Hawaii is in total shambles with zero home crowd edge (the stands last week were almost empty) and a coach that is just past his prime. Hawaii hung with a couple of PAC-12 teams early in the season but that seems like a decade ago and this team is just not the same without Joey Iosefa. The Aggies have one of the best defense in the country, especially against the run and will win this game by double digits. It does not matter who starts at quarterback for the Aggies, the talent at the other spots is too much for the Warriors to stay close. Lay the small change in this game. |
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10-26-14 | Nevada -3 v. Hawaii | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 106 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #199 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 11:59 pm PPV) By know you know we have a great feel for this Nevada team having used them for and against numerous times this season without losing a game. Nevada is just a better team than Hawaii especially without Joey Iosefa. Nevada has won three straight games in this series by an average of 27 points per game. Hawaii will have some moments in this game but in the end it will be too much Cody Fajardo and company. |
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10-25-14 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Penn State | 31-24 | Loss | -108 | 102 h 35 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #195 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Penn State has a good quarterback but their supporting cast is certainly not up to par with Christian Hackenberg. Ohio State has covered the spread in 8 of the last 12 games with Penn State including going 5-2 ATS in Happy Valley. The Buckeyes have played well since losing to Virginia Tech with 4 blowout victories. The same cannot be said for Penn State, as they are coming off two straight losses against bad/so-so teams. Ohio State is 35-15 (1 push) in their last 51 road games. Penn State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Big Ten games. |
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10-25-14 | Ole Miss -3.5 v. LSU | 7-10 | Loss | -102 | 101 h 2 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #171 Take Mississippi Rebels over LSU Tigers (Saturday 7:15 pm ESPN) LSU is playing better of late but they are still not up to par with Ole Miss. The Rebels are a dynamic team on both sides of the football and should be able to outscore LSU easily in this game. Tradition can only take LSU so far as they fact remains that Ole Miss is just a much better team in 2014 with a much better quarterback. Granted Bo Wallace could play down to the Tigers level but I would not bank on that happening. Mississippi will lose a game at some point this season but it will not be in Baton Rouge against this weak Tiger team. |
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10-24-14 | BYU v. Boise State -7 | Top | 30-55 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #114 Take Boise State Broncos over BYU Cougars (Friday 9 pm ESPN) Boise State did not look that impressive last week against Fresno State but they still won the game! That is more than BYU can say as they lost to Nevada as a double digit favorite at home. The fact remains that BYU is continuing to get too much respect from the odds makers. This is a completely different team without Taysom Hill and his back-up is just not up to par with numerous turnovers. BYU does not have the same rushing attack and thus have to rely more on the passing game. This is the best team BYU will have faced in 2014 and they are also playing a team with revenge from last season. The Broncos have won two straight games after their Air Force debacle including beating Nevada on the road and QB Grant Hedrick is playing much better of late with just one interception in his last two games. Boise State got run over last year in Provo and you can bet that does not sit well with the 2014 team. BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Boise State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. We will keep fading the Cougars with these short numbers. |
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10-18-14 | Nevada +10 v. BYU | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 103 h 2 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #355 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over BYU Cougars (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) BYU is just not the same team without Taysom Hill and we will fade them with these big lines each and every game. Nevada may be down big at some point in this game but they have a knack for coming back late and making games interesting. Playing in Provo is always a tough task, but Nevada is used to the elevation and I just do not see them getting blown out by a back-up quarterback. Nevada is solid (not great) on both sides of the football and this game will do down to the wire. Nevada is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record. BYU is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 home games. |
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10-18-14 | Notre Dame +12 v. Florida State | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #403 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Florida State Seminoles (Saturday 8 pm ABC) If Florida State cannot blow out Syracuse without their starting quarterback I do not expect them to be able to manhandle the Irish. The Seminoles have not played well this year and the issues with their quarterback keep piling up each and every week. Notre Dame just keeps winning and this season reminds me of their national championship game appearance two seasons ago. In that year, nobody gave them much of a chance to go into Oklahoma and win but the Irish did so. Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Florida State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. |
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10-18-14 | Utah State v. Colorado State -5 | 13-16 | Loss | -112 | 100 h 50 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #386 Take Colorado State Rams over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 7 pm CBS Sports Network) I truly believe that the Rams have the best coach in the MWC and the best team in the MWC. Therefore we will lay this low number at home against a team without their all everything quarterback in Chuckie Keaton. The Rams are 8-2 as a home favorite and they have the weapons to attack this Utah State defense on the ground or through the air. Utah State is not as strong on defense as they were last year and they do not have an explosive offense. Colorado State has won 9 of their last 11 home games. CSU is also 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 games overall. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and I see a double digit victory for the visitor. |
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10-17-14 | Fresno State v. Boise State -17 | 27-37 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
7-Unit Play. Take #310 Boise State over Fresno State (8 p.m., Friday, Oct. 17) This is my College Football Game of the Month. I love the Broncos in this one. This spread is high for a reason! Fresno State lost on the road at UNLV last week. Now they have to go on to the blue turf. I do not think that they will rebound from that bad road loss to a bad UNLV program. Boise State had a bye week last week. They had two weeks to get ready for this one and they will be prepared. That is a big benefit for the new Broncos coaching staff. Boise State has dominated this series lately. The Broncos have covered eight straight games in this series and they are 12-1 ATS the last 13 times that they have played. But Boise State lost on the road last year. They lost on a late touchdown with just two minutes left. That means the Broncos have revenge this year and that is not a position they are in very often. Boise State already has a league loss at Air Force. They can't afford to lose another Mountain West game. They are going to win and win big in this one. The public will get suckered in to taking the points because they think these are two good teams. But Boise State is going to play its best game of the year and win with a blowout here. |
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10-11-14 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -2 | 35-20 | Loss | -106 | 102 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #188 Take Texas A & M Aggies over Mississippi Rebels (Saturday 9 pm ESPN) The Rebels are coming off their most important victory in years and all this week everybody is telling them how good they are. This sets up a trap game if I have ever seen one and expect the Aggies to take out their frustration in a big way Saturday night in College Station. Texas A & M has not played a home game in close to a month and you can bet their fan base will be ready for this game. A & M has won two straight games versus the Rebels with both wins coming in Oxford. Granted the Aggies defense is suspect but I expect them to put forth a big showing in front of their home fans. The SEC West is strong from top to bottom and I just do not believe Ole Miss will be able to maintain focus in this game especially in the first half coming off such an emotional win. A & M is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. |
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10-11-14 | Alabama -10 v. Arkansas | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 10 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #159 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 6 pm ESPN) The Razorbacks are a much improved team but I do not feel they are ready to battle to cream of the crop in the SEC. The last two match-ups have been won by the Tide by identical scores of 52-0. This is actually a great match-up for Alabama as they do not have to worry about the spread in this game as the Razorbacks line up in a traditional formation and run the ball man on man. Alabama has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 match-ups. Nick Saban takes out his frustration in a big way on Saturday and we collect in the process as well. |
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10-11-14 | Oregon -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 97 h 34 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #165 Take Oregon Ducks over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) This game has lost a little of its luster with both teams suffering setbacks last week and thus the loser of this game has no chance to make it into the 4 team playoff. That being said I expect Oregon to bounce back in a big way and get back into the win column. Oregon has shown signs of being dominant this season evident by their big win over Michigan State but the same cannot be said about UCLA. The Bruins has struggle in all of their games at some point including Arizona State. This UCLA team just does not have it this year and I have never thought Jim Mora Jr was a big time coach. QB Marcus Mariota is still a big time player and has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. Oregon has won 10 of the last 12 meetings with UCLA. Oregon is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games. UCLA is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games played in October. Â |
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10-11-14 | Duke v. Georgia Tech -4 | 31-25 | Loss | -106 | 94 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #128 Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Duke Blue Devils (Saturday 12:30 pm ACC Network) Georgia Tech just owns Duke! The Yellow Jackets have won 10 straight games against the Blue Devils by an average margin of 21 points (7-3 ATS). Duke won the division last year and still lost to Georgia Tech by 18 points giving up 449 yards on the ground. |
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10-04-14 | Boise State -3 v. Nevada | 51-46 | Win | 100 | 102 h 0 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #416 Take Boise State Broncos over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 10:30 pm CBSSN) By now you realize we have a great feel for this Nevada team cashing with them last week for our College Football Game of the Year. Boise State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Air Force but if you turn over the football 7 times you will not beat anybody. That being said, I expect Boise State to bounce back in this game and I feel it is the right decision to start Grant Hedrick in this game. If Boise State can avoid turnovers they will win this game, something they have done against Nevada in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Nevada is 3-1 on the season but it is a little bit of fools gold since their offense has been terrible being outgained by 124 yards per game against their 3 FCS Opponents (Arizona, Washington State, and San Jose State). Their offense did nothing against San Jose State except for a few key runs and that will not get it done against a team as strong as Boise State. Nevada has a strong defense that played outstanding against Washington State, but Arizona had their way against them and so did San Jose State. The Spartans just got burned with costly turnovers. Sooner or later the stats will tell the story and this is a game that Boise State needs badly as does new coach Bryan Harsin. Boise State is 20-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 29 games following a loss. Nevada is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games played during October. |
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10-04-14 | Hawaii v. Rice -6.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #362 Take Rice Owls over Hawaii Rainbows (Saturday 7 pm American Sports Network) Hawaii is still without their best player and they have lost 14 straight games on the mainland. Rice has won 4 of the 6 meetings with Hawaii and is a perfect 6-0 ATS in those games. Rice has played a difficult schedule this year with games against Texas A & M and Notre Dame but they played well last week against Southern Miss scoring 41 points and winning by 18 points. Hawaii hung tough with some PAC-12 teams but they are a completely different team on the road. Hawaii is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games played during the month of October. Rice is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played during October. October is good to the Owls. |
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10-04-14 | Oklahoma -4 v. TCU | 33-37 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 1 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #375 Take Oklahoma Sooners over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) Oklahoma is just a much more complete team than is TCU. The Forgs have had very little success since joining the Big XII and they have played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far in 2014. I never have and never will trust Trevone Boykin to make big plays for the offense and fully expect his true colors to shine in this game. Oklahoma has won 4 of the last 5 match-ups with TCU. The Sooners eventually wore down West Virginia two weeks ago in Morgantown and that is how I see this game going as well. TCU will have some moments but this is not the game that Oklahoma loses and drops out of the Final Four picture. Oklahoma has covered 7 of their last 8 games overall. TCU is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. TCU is not ready for this major step up in class. |
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10-04-14 | Stanford v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #368 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Actually surprised that Stanford opened as a favorite in this game. Notre Dame is undefeated and played a decent schedule thus far and they have not had a competitive game thus far in 2014. Stanford already lost at home to a so-so USC team and they are vastly overrated this year and in this game. I also believe that Notre Dame has a major edge in coaching with Brian Kelly compared to David Shaw, as the latter tightens up in close games with a very conservative gameplan. Notre Dame has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 non conference games. The defense of the Irish has made great strides under new DC Brian VanGorder and expect that to continue this week. |
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09-27-14 | Nevada -4.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 21-10 | Win | 100 | 105 h 9 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #205 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over San Jose State Spartans (Saturday 10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) College Football Game of the Year. Nevada is just a better team in 2014. They have a much better quarterback and they have vastly improved their defense this season. They are also playing a team that they have had great success against dating back to the WAC. Nevada has won five straight games in this series and 10 of the last 11 match-ups (8-3 ATS). Nevada was left for dead late last season and was a 7-point underdog against San Jose State and still beat them by 22 points! To make matters worse for San Jose State, they have had a quarterback change as Joe Gray will likely get the start today over Blake Jurich. The Spartans are just lost on offense without their quarterback and top wide receiver from last year. Nevada could easily be 3-0 on the season despite playing two PAC-12 teams. They dominated Washington State much better than Oregon did last week and if not for some questionable calls in Tucson they hung with Arizona as well. Nevada is also coming off a bye and that has allowed a couple of offensive linemen to get healthy and should allow their dominating running attack to find holes early and often in this game. QB Cody Fajardo has torn apart this team and tonight will be no different. |
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09-27-14 | Colorado v. California -13 | 56-59 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 46 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #156 Take Cal Golden Bears over Colorado Buffaloes (Saturday 4 pm PAC-12 Network) The Bears lost a heartbreaking game last week against Arizona and one may wonder if they can get up for this game? But I am not one of those people, as Coach Dykes has this team playing outstanding football and they will become bowl eligible this season. They also have revenge on their minds as Colorado beat them last season. Colorado is just not any good evident by the fact they struggled to put away a terrible Hawaii team last week in Boulder. Colorado is 16-37 ATS in their last 53 road games. |
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09-27-14 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M -8 | 28-35 | Loss | -106 | 98 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #168 Take Texas A & M Aggies over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The Razorbacks appear to be heading in the right direction under the much maligned Coach Bret Bielema but they are not ready to face the top teams in the SEC. This game is in Arlington not College Station but I expect the Aggies faithful to be in full force. This game reminds me of the Auburn – Arkansas game. The Hogs will hang around for a little bit but sooner or later A & M will go on a scoring barrage and I just do not believe Arkansas will be able to keep up with them. Arkansas is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 SEC games. A & M is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of September. |
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09-27-14 | MINNESOTA v. Michigan -11.5 | 30-14 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #116 Take Michigan Wolverines over Minnesota Golden Gophers (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Michigan really?? Yes we went against them as our top play last week and won easily despite the long weather, but Michigan was playing a much better team in Utah that had playmakers on both sides of the football. Minnesota has taken a major step back after finding some success last year and they are worse on offense than Michigan is. The Wolverines have had great success against Minnesota in their history winning the last 6 games by an average of 28 points per game. Coach Hoke is down and out but he is a fighter and expect Michigan to come out and dominate this game for 60 minutes. |
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09-20-14 | Oregon -23.5 v. Washington State | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -106 | 103 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #363 Take Oregon Ducks over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN) The Ducks got things going against Wyoming after a slow start in the first quarter and I just do not see Washington State being able to stop Oregon whatsoever. Wazzou will throw every down and move the football a little big but sooner or later Oregon will go on a scoring run and never look back. Oregon has scored an average of 50 points in their last 4 games against Washington State. Oregon is usually a mid-30 point favorite against Wazzou and thus I do not see them getting backdoored in this game. |
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09-20-14 | California v. Arizona -9 | 45-49 | Loss | -112 | 103 h 60 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #392 Take Arizona Wildcats over California Golden Bears (Saturday 10 pm PAC-12 Network) I just cannot get out of my mind how bad Cal was last year and I do not believe that are ready to play even with top PAC-12 teams on the road. Arizona held off a pesky Nevada team last week which I feel is a better team that Cal is. The Golden Bears beat Northwestern in Week 1 but we now see that is not a very good win since Northwestern has yet to win a game this season. Arizona has a dynamic offense that spreads the field and can move the football in a variety of ways. Cal is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Cal is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall. |
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09-20-14 | Oklahoma -7 v. West Virginia | 45-33 | Win | 100 | 100 h 20 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #389 Take Oklahoma Sooners over West Virginia Mountaineers (Saturday 7:30 pm FOX) The Sooners are for real and a true contended for a spot in the college football playoff come January. West Virginia is improved but their performance against Alabama was misleading since Alabama is not playing that well on offense to start to the season. The Sooners are getting it done on both sides of the football and I just do not believe West Virginia will be able to keep pace against a strong Sooner defense. I am just not sold on Clint Trickett as a quarterback and feel his true colors will shine against a good team. Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning road record. |
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09-20-14 | Hawaii v. Colorado -7 | 12-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 3 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #344 Take Colorado Buffaloes over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 2 pm PAC-12 Network) Tough spot for the Warriors as they are making their first road trip of the season to the mainland. They are also without RB Joey Iosefa who is far and away their best playmaker. Hawaii is also coached by Norm Crow, someone we like to fade. Hawaii usually gets down big early before making a late rally to make the score look respectable by I just do not see them making a comeback on the road. Colorado is not a favorite very often but they have covered the spread the last three times they were expected to win. Colorado did move the football against Arizona State last week and will find things much easier on Saturday. Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory. Their body clocks will be messed up as well since it is a 12 pm Mountain Time start (8 am Hawaiian time). Â |
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09-13-14 | UCLA -7 v. Texas | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 46 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #189 Take UCLA Bruins over Texas Longhorns (Saturday 8 pm FOX) Texas will put forth a better effort this week against UCLA but the fact remains that they just do not have much talent. New Coach Charlie Strong has laid down the law with suspensions and they have also been bitten by the injury bug as well. That came to a head last week when BYU destroyed them by a score of 41-7. The fact remains that UCLA is a better team than BYU and they also have a duel threat quarterback that can beat you with his arm or his legs. UCLA has not been that impressive this season in their two victories but I feel that have just been going through the motions waiting for ta big time game with a national audience. They have that here and expect a focus and determined effort. Texas is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games against ranked teams on a neutral field. Texas was embarrassed by BYU in 2013 and even with revenge on their minds they still got run over last week. That just tells me they do not have the horses. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. |
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09-13-14 | Syracuse v. Central Michigan +7 | 40-3 | Loss | -116 | 90 h 45 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #128 Take Central Michigan over Syracuse Orange (Saturday 12 pm ESPNEWS) The Orange are not a good team and thus do not deserve to be this big of a favorite against anybody especially on the road. We went against CMU last week at got burned and we will not make the same mistake twice. Like Nevada last week, mid-majors love to host power conference teams and their fan base is always up for this type of a game. Purdue is very similar to Syracuse and the Chippewas just beat Purdue by 21 points. Michigan transfer Thomas Rawls has been outstanding at running back going over 100 yards in both games this season. Syracuse struggled to put away Villanova with the ejection of Terrel Hunt and they will be lucky to win this game straight-up. CMU has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games. |
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09-11-14 | Houston v. BYU -18.5 | 25-33 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #106 Take BYU Cougars over Houston Cougars (Thursday 9 pm ESPN) We used BYU last week as a free pick against a vastly overrated Texas team and we will come right back with them as a selection at home this Thursday. BYU is a completely different team at home with the high elevation and the crowd should be rocking for this night game since it is their first game in Provo this year. BYU beat Houston last year in Texas scoring 47 points and giving up 46 points. I just do not believe Houston has the offensive firepower this year to keep pace with BYU who has everybody back on offense. BYU is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 home games. Houston is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. |
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09-06-14 | Colorado State v. Boise State -10.5 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 102 h 55 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #386 Take Boise State Broncos over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) Boise State needs to make a statement in this game that they are still the team to beat in the MWC and this is an important game for Coach Bryan Harsin to get the fan base back on his side. The Broncos played with a very good Ole Miss team for a half before they failed to show up in the fourth quarter and got beat by 22 points. Boise State is 3-0 against Colorado State with all three wins coming by double digits. The only trip the Rams have made to Boise was a 28 point setback and I really feel that is how this game will go. Boise State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss in their previous game. |
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09-06-14 | Arizona State v. New Mexico +25 | Top | 58-23 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 35 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #360 Take New Mexico Lobos over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm CBS Sports Network) No top 25 team lost as many starters as Arizona State did from 2013. Therefore I do not believe they will be able to run over teams especially on the road. New Mexico is not very good, but like Georgia Southern last week, they have a run based offense that an shorten the game especially if they can stay close early. Arizona State has dropped six straight road openers and this is just too many points for them to cover on the road. New Mexico always has a strong fan base and this should be a good crowd for both teams. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. QB Taylor Kelly is good but I just do not believe he can cover this spread by himself. |
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09-06-14 | Ohio v. Kentucky -12 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 4 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #344 Take Kentucky Wildcats over Ohio Bobcats (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN U) The Wildcats should be a better team in year two under Mark Stoops. They blew out an FCS team which is not impressive but then again any win by Kentucky over the last couple of years is a good things. They now host a pesky Ohio team that is always near the top of the MAC standing but never wins the MAC. Kentucky usually plays well in non-conference home games with the exception of Louisville (12-1 straight-up the last three games). This includes going a perfect 6-0 against MAC teams. The last four games have come by a 30 point average margin of victory. Ohio has lost 4 straight games against the spread following a victory in their previous game. |
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09-06-14 | Fresno State v. Utah -10.5 | 27-59 | Win | 100 | 94 h 26 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #338 Take Utah Utes over Fresno State Bulldogs (Saturday 3 pm PAC-12 Network) The Bulldogs got run over by a so-so USC team for the second straight game and I just do not see things getting better against Utah this week for their second straight road games. Fresno State lost a lot of their offensive firepower including David Carr to the Raiders. Fresno State returns 8 starters on defense from last year but they gave up over 700 yards to USC and were pretty poor last year as well giving up over 30 points per game. Throw in the fact the Utah’s new coordinator was the former Wyoming coach who Dave Christensen who knows how to attack this Fresno State team. Utah is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against MWC teams. Fresno State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against PAC-12 teams. |
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09-06-14 | Central Michigan v. Purdue -3 | 38-17 | Loss | -112 | 91 h 25 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #318/#322 Take Purdue Boilermakers over Central Michigan Chippewas (12 pm ESPNEWS) We will go back to the well again with Purdue as their defense let us down last week in a game that feel very close to the number. But I expect a better performance out of them this week against Central Michigan, a team on paper that many believe has better talent than Western Michigan did. But I am not one of those people, as the Broncos had numerous young studs that CMU just does not present. This number is much more manageable as well and Purdue can double their win total from last year with a victory on Saturday. CMU struggled to put away Chattanooga last week and playing on the road is a whole different animal. CMU is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played during the month of September. |
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09-05-14 | Washington State v. Nevada +2.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 56 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #306/#306 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Washington State Cougars (Friday 10:30 pm ESPN) The football will be in the air early and often in this game but I feel that the wrong team is favored. MWC teams love to host teams from the Big 5 Conference and you can expect the fan base will be ready for this night game in Reno. Nevada has a solid defense especially against the pass and that should bode well for them since Wazzou hardly ever runs the football. This will be the second straight road game for the Cougars (Seattle is not drivable from Pullman) and that usually takes its toll on a team. Nevada has the much better quarterback in Cody Fajardo and the Wolf Pack is two dimensional on offense. Washington State gave up a ton of points to Rutgers and I just do not see them winning this game. |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Louisville -3 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #210/#214 Take Louisville Cardinals over Miami Hurricanes (Monday 8 pm ESPN) Louisville has had great success against Miami and I just do not see a reason why that would change tonight in Kentucky. Coach Bobby Petrino is back as head coach at Louisville and he has won 8 straight season openers. Louisville lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to the Minnesota Vikings but Miami has a bigger drop-off from losing their quarterback Stephen Morris. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. |
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08-30-14 | Georgia Southern +21 v. NC State | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 47 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #167/#165 Take Georgia Southern Eagles over North Carolina State Wolfpack (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) Some of us remember the Georgia Southern victory over Florida last year in the swamp where two players from the same team were blocking each other. But the fact remains that NC State is not any good (much worse than Florida) and do not warrant to be favored by this many points against anybody in FBS. I like using Georgia Southern as a big underdog play since they shorten the game with a strong running attack. NC State finished 2013 losing 8 straight games (0-7-1 ATS) and they are just not very good. They will win this game but I see it only by 14-17 points. Georgia Southern has covered 4 straight road games. |
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08-30-14 | Western Michigan v. Purdue -10 | Top | 34-43 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #188/#160 Take Purdue Boilermakers over Western Michigan Broncos (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) I am expecting big things from Purdue this year as Coach Darrell Hazell is in his second year of this major rebuilding project. Purdue has a ton of experience on both sides of the football and this is an important game since it will be one of the few games they are favored to win. Actually Purdue should win three of their four nonconference games but this is a must win if they are going to show any kind of improvement in 2014. Purdue is a perfect 3-0 in this series and Western Michigan was terrible last year matching Purdue’s 1-11 record. The Broncos have lost 19 straight road openers and I feel that Purdue will want to make a statement in this game to rally the fan base for 2014. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Big Ten teams. |
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08-29-14 | BYU v. Connecticut +16.5 | 35-10 | Loss | -106 | 76 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #146 Take Connecticut Huskies over BYU Cougars (Friday 7 pm ESPN) Many people believe that the Huskies are one of the worst teams in the American Athletic Conference. That may be the case but I just do not see them getting blown out in this game at home. BYU faced a similar opponent on the road last year and lost to a terrible Virginia team. UCONN has a new coach in Bob Diaco a defensive minded coach that faced BYU last year at Notre Dame and held them to just 13 points. The fact remains that the Cougars are a completely different team on the road compared to playing in the high elevation of Provo, UT. UCONN is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. We will take the points with UCONN at Rentschler Field. |
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08-28-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #138/#108 Take Tulsa Golden Hurricanes over Tulane Green Wave (Thursday 8 pm CBS Sports Network) Tulsa is coming off a terrible year for a team that is accustomed to winning records and bowl appearances. They did everything in their power to give Tulane the game last year in the Superdome and you can bet things will change dramatically this season. The Green Wave are 0-4 in games at Tulsa losing by an average of 37 points (Tulsa covered the spread in each of these games). QB Dane Evans was a young freshman last year and expect him to play much better with a full offseason of coaching. Revenge is best served on the field and Tulsa gets it done in a big way. |
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01-06-14 | Auburn +8.5 v. Florida State | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 319 h 55 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #269 Take Auburn Tigers over Florida State Seminoles (BCS Championship Game, Monday, 1/6, 8:30 pm) Mag 7 Game. Many people believe that the SEC
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01-01-14 | Michigan State +6 v. Stanford | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 196 h 46 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #255 Take Michigan State over Stanford Cardinal (Rose Bowl, Wednesday, 1/1, 4 pm ESPN) Mag 7 Game. This is one of the few BCS Bowl games besides the championship game that people are excited for. We used Michigan State last year as our Bowl Game of the Year and will use them again as another strong play this season. Stanford has some great wins on the season but their defense is better equipped to stop spread teams and Sparty would certainly not be considered a spread team. Stanford has embarrassing losses to USC and Utah and do not expect them to be able to run through this Spartan defense. Stanford plays conservative on offense and thus I see this game going like their Rose Bowl game with Wisconsin last year. Michigan State is a much better team than Wisconsin was last year yet the Cardinal struggled to score and could never put them away. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. This will be a field goal game and we will cover with whoever comes out on top.
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | 19-42 | Loss | -110 | 167 h 8 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #239 Take Boston College Eagles over Arizona Wildcats (Advocare V100 Bowl, Tuesday, 12/31, 12:30 pm ESPN) Mag 7 Game. We went against Arizona last year in their bowl game against Nevada and easily covered the spread despite the Wildcats winning in miraculous fashion (think Colorado State this year). Arizona has a great running back in Ka
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12-30-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 146 h 47 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #233 Take Ole Miss Rebels over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Music City Bowl, Monday 12/30 3:15 pm ESPN) Mag 7 Game. Bowl Game of the Year. Fans in Atlanta are running out of patience with Paul Johnson and his triple option attack. For the most part he teams have been a middle of the pack team in a terrible conference and they struggle to move the football against teams with speed. That is what the Rebels have on defense and having a month to prepare for a triple option attack is a great thing. Fans have become so angry with the Yellow Jacket system and Coach Johnson has thrown the ball more this year than in past years. The quarterback position is a big edge for Ole Miss with a great run/pass option in Bo Wallace. Georgia Tech had five games this season where they allowed over 480 yards of offense. Georgia Tech is 1-4 in their last 5 bowl game and that lone win came last year against USC who did not have their quarterback in Matt Barkley. The Rebels have had a disappointing after a great nonconference portion of the season but they play in the SEC West, a much tougher division than the ACC Coastal that Duke won this season. Ole Miss pounded Pittsburgh last year in their bowl game and I see this as a double digit victory as well. Ole Miss is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 bowl games. Georgia Tech is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
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12-28-13 | Miami (Florida) v. Louisville -3 | 9-36 | Win | 100 | 101 h 11 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #228 Take Louisville Cardinals over Miami Hurricanes (Russell Athletic Bowl, Saturday 12/28, 6:45 pm ESPN) Mag 7 Game. Nobody gave Louisville a chance last year against Florida in the Sugar Bowl and I feel that this number is again short this year against another team from Florida. The Cardinals have a major edge at quarterback with Teddy Bridgewater, a likely first round draft choice is he decides to turn pro after this game. I am just not a chance of Hurricane QB Stephen Morris, as he has 12 interceptions on the season against a very weak schedule. Louisville has won three of their last 4 bowl games (2 of them were BCS) and Miami has lost three straight bowl games including this exact bowl game in 2009. Louisville had a very easy schedule, but they had just one bad half of football and that kept them out of the BCS. Miami is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Louisville is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games against ACC teams.
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12-27-13 | Washington v. BYU OVER 60 | 31-16 | Loss | -104 | 80 h 59 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #222 Take Over in Washington Huskies vs. BYU Cougars (Kraft Hunger Bowl, Friday, 12/27, 9:30 pm ESPN) Mag 7 Game. Both teams have had their moments this season with some quality wins but there will be too much passing in this game to keep the scoring down. Both teams run a hurry-up up-tempo offense and both teams have dynamic quarterbacks that can beat you with their arm or their legs. Washington has an interim coach that wants to make a name for himself and thus I expect them to not hold back and try and score as many points as possible. The Huskies have gone over the posted total in 5 of their last 6 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh +180 v. Bowling Green | 30-27 | Win | 180 | 52 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #213 Take Pittsburgh Panthers over Bowling Green Falcons (Little Caesars Bowl, Thursday, 12/26 6 pm ESPN) MAG 7 GAME. The MAC is not a very good conference and I just do not believe Bowling Green will be able to run over Pittsburgh like they did Northern Illinois. Compounding things even more is that Falcon Head Coach Dave Clawson has bolted for Wake Forest. Bowling Green is not a traditional powerhouse in the MAC and they are 0-3 straight-up and against the spread in their last three bowl games. Pittsburgh has played much better competition this season and they finally have some stability at head coach with Paul Chryst finishing up his second season. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played in December. Take the points with the BCS Conference team playing a mid-major.
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12-21-13 | UL-Lafayette v. Tulane -1 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 11 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #208 Take Tulane Green Wave over Louisiana Ragin
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12-07-13 | Utah State v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 99 h 19 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #130 Take Fresno State Bulldogs over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 10 pm CBS) Top College Football Play of the Week. The first ever Mountain West Championship takes place late Saturday night in Fresno, CA. The Bulldogs are coming off their first loss of the season last week when they failed to show up against San Jose State last Friday. They lost any chance of making a BCS Bowl game after that showing, but I still believe they have enough pride to knockdown the Aggies and their back-up freshman quarterback. Derek Carr is still a much better quarterback than Darell Garreston and that will be the difference in this game. Once Boise State lost their quarterback Joe Southwick, the Mountain Division of the MWC became very easy and winnable for Utah State since Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico are all terrible teams. That fact remains that Fresno State played a much more difficult schedule than did Utah State during conference play. Boise State pounded Utah State in Logan this season and the Aggies just beat up on the soft teams in the MWC. Still have concerns that Fresno will not be able to bounce back after such as bad performance but playing at home and winning a championship with a group of talented seniors should allow them to performance at high level.
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12-07-13 | Missouri v. Auburn -2 | 42-59 | Win | 100 | 93 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #122 Take Auburn Tigers over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 4 pm CBS) We used Missouri as our top play last week and were not impressed by their offense whatsoever. Texas A & M had one of the worst defenses in the country and Missouri struggled against them for most of the game. They broke a couple of long plays but they just did not move the ball on a consistent basis. Now Missou faces a better defense in Auburn and a better coach in Gus Malzahn. Auburn is doing a lot of talking this week and that does worry me a little; however, Missouri has not won a conference championship since the 1960s and they just do not perform well in big games. The SEC East was very weak this season and thus I do not believe they are battle tested for this game. Auburn is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green v. Northern Illinois -3 | 47-27 | Loss | -114 | 73 h 16 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #106 Take Northern Illinois Huskies over Bowling Green Falcons (Friday 8 pm ESPN 2) The Huskies just continue to win games and we will select them on Friday night with this short number. The MAC as a whole wants NIU to win this game and thus the entire conference will receive a big payday from the BCS. Parlay that with the fact the NIU clearly has the best quarterback in Jordan Lynch and at the mid-major level quarterbacks like these guys can pick apart teams, something that he has done all season long. This is another case of the top of the MAC West being much stronger than the top of the MAC East Toledo went into Bowling Green and handed the Falcons their only loss of the season. Do not overthink things and just lay the small change with the much better team.
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11-30-13 | Texas A&M v. Missouri -4 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 77 h 8 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #384 Take Missouri Tigers over Texas A & M Aggies (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN) I have been late to the party on Missouri, but this is their most important game since the Chase Daniel era, as a win tonight will earn them a spot in the SEC Championship Game next Saturday in Atlanta, GA. For some reason Missouri is in the SEC East despite having a location in the west but this team has an explosive offense that can match up easily with Johnny Football. All Texas A & M has in a quarterback and wide receiver, the rest of their talent is subpar and that became evident last week against LSU. Johnny Football will make some plays and put up some number but it will be nowhere near enough. Coach Sumlin has not had a good defense while he has been a head coach at Houston and A & M and that is certainly the case this season. Missou is 12-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games overall. A & M is 16-37 ATS (1 push) in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning home record.
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11-30-13 | Notre Dame +14.5 v. Stanford | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 97 h 44 m | Show | |
2 Unit Play. #419 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 7 pm FOX) I just do not believe that Stanford will be able to run through this Notre Dame defense. The Irish are coming off an impressive victory last week against BYU, a team that featured a much better quarterback than what they will tonight in Palo Alto. Stanford has a much more important game next week with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line against Arizona State. Notre Dame is giving up just 22.5 points per game and thus I feel that Stanford will have trouble covering this big of a number. Notre Dame is not Cal and that will become evident on Saturday night. Notre Dame has not covered many games all season, but the points have been over adjusted based on the talent of each of these teams.
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11-30-13 | Ohio State -14.5 v. Michigan | 42-41 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 54 m | Show | |
2 Unit Play. #345 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Michigan Wolverines (Saturday 12 pm ABC) This line is a little higher than where I would like it to be because this is still Michigan
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11-29-13 | Iowa v. Nebraska -3 | 38-17 | Loss | -100 | 66 h 43 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #314 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Iowa Hawkeyes (Friday 12 pm ABC) The rivals have closed out the Big Ten season the last three years and it has been all Big Red. Nebraska has won all 4 games against Iowa winning by an average score of 29-9 in this contests. Iowa dominated Michigan last week in yardage but still only won the game by 3 points. Neither one of these teams have an explosive offense, but Nebraska has the better running game and that will be the difference. This will be an ugly game to watch; however, I see Nebraska pulling it out by 7 to 10 points. Both coaches are on the hot seat, but Bo Pelini needs this game more. Iowa is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a victory in their previous game. Nebraska is 15-4 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record.
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11-28-13 | Texas Tech v. Texas -4 | 16-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #310 Take Texas Longhorns over Texas Tech Red Raiders (Thursday 7:30 pm Fox Sports 1) Texas Tech has fallen apart of late losing 4 straight games and close out the season in Austin, TX. During this losing streak, the Red Raiders have been giving up over 50 points per game and that includes 49 to Kansas State, a team with very little offensive firepower. Texas still has a chance at winning the Big XII and expect them to control this game for 60 minutes. Texas Tech is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played during the month of November. Texas is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double digit loss at home in their previous game. Texas has the size and strength to muscle around Texas Tech.
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11-23-13 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 58 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 15 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #208 Take Under in Boise State @ San Diego State (Saturday 10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) We used and collected on both of these team
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11-23-13 | Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5 | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 43 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #152 Tennessee Volunteers over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) This battle of Tennessee is import for both teams as they are vying for postseason play. Vanderbilt already has enough wins to go bowling but Tennessee needs to win out in order to get to six victories. Tennessee has won 34 of the 37 meetings and are 17-1 when games are played in Knoxville. Tennessee is coming off a much needed bye after getting blown out by the big boys (Auburn, Missouri, & Alabama) the three previous weeks. This is a get healthy game for Tennessee and it is much needed in order to get the extra moth of practice during December.
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11-23-13 | Arizona State v. UCLA +3 | 38-33 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 42 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #164 Take UCLA Bruins over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm FOX) One may think this is a strange line since UCLA is higher ranked and at home but is an underdog to Arizona State this week in Pasadena. I went to Arizona State and have a great feel for the Sun Devils and just do not feel this are that strong this season. UCLA has great balance and an athletic quarterback in Brett Hundley. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. We used UCLA last week against Washington and the Bruins jumped out to a big lead last Friday night and expect a similar result on Saturday. Both teams combined for 4 losses, but ASU has the only bad loss of the four, losing to Notre Dame at a neutral site. Arizona State will move the football on offense, but not on a consistent basis. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. UCLA has covered 4 of their last 5 home games. Getting points is just a bonus we cannot afford to pass up.
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11-23-13 | UTEP +17.5 v. Tulane | 3-45 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 13 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #175 Take UTEP Miners over Tulane Green Wave (Saturday 3:30 pm) The Green Wave has had a turnaround season as they already are bowl eligible and currently have a winning record. That being said this is just too many points to be laying with a traditional bottom feeder team in Conference USA. The Green Wave have lost two straight games and only score 24 points per game on the season. That means they will have their average to cover this big of a number. UTEP is terrible; however, I believe they hang around in this game for 60 minutes. Tulane is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
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11-23-13 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -6 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 26 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #158 Take Wyoming Cowboys over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 2 pm themw. com) Top College Football Play of the Weekend. To make no bones about it, both of these teams suck; however, Wyoming troubles have been self-inflicted with numerous turnovers each and every game. The Cowboys played alright against Boise State last week on defense, however, the offense turned it over way too much and that eventually caught-up with them. Hawaii played well last week at home in a game they desperately wanted but fell apart in overtime and I just do not think they will have much left in the tank. San Diego State played terrible last week on offense and that is the strong point of Wyoming. The Cowboys still have a shot at a bowl game and they need one badly or their coach may be shown the door. The line is creeping down and that just make me like Wyoming that much more. If Wyoming does not turnover the football I feel they will be able to light up the scoreboard in this game and Hawaii simply will not be able to keep up. The Warriors have only been competitive in one road game this season and were beaten by double digits against bad teams like Navy & Nevada. Hawaii is 3-10 in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Wyoming is 7-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. We must protect this football!
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11-16-13 | San Diego State -4 v. Hawaii | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 103 h 54 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #401 Take San Diego State Aztecs over Hawaii Warriors (10:30 pm CBS Sports Network) The Warriors are 0-9 and the Norm Chow era is truly on life support. They have keep some games close this year; however, they last two games have not been pretty. The Aztecs have stayed under the radar, but they are 4-1 in the MWC and they have lost just one game since September 22nd. That loss came against undefeated Fresno State and has a game that could have easily won missing a field goal as time expired in the fourth quarter. Playing in Hawaii is not what it once was, as teams are now treating it as a business trip and not a party. Hawaii
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11-16-13 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 69 | 7-48 | Win | 100 | 103 h 41 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #362 Take Under in Wyoming Cowboys @ Boise State Broncos (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) Wyoming is in a major free fall and thus enters this game as a hefty underdog. Cannot use them as a selection anymore as they have bitten us in recent weeks; however, the under sets up for a strong play in this game. Boise State is still using a back-up quarterback and thus their offense is not as effective as when QB Joe Southwick was behind center. Wyoming fired their defensive coordinator two weeks ago and this is the game I expect to see a turnaround ala Texas. Wyoming has gone under the posted total in 8 of their last 10 games played during November.
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11-16-13 | Georgia v. Auburn -3.5 | 38-43 | Win | 100 | 96 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #366 Take Auburn Tigers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Georgia would have been a big favorite in this game at the start of the season; however, injuries and poor defensive play have caught up with them and thus the Tigers come in as a small favorite. The home team in this game has covered 5 of the last 6 match-ups. Georgia is getting some players back from injury but they are still out major weapons at the wide receiver position and that will be too much for them to overcome in a hostile environment. Auburn is just having one of those years and I believe they will enter the Iron Bowl with just 1 loss. Georgia plays in the overrated SEC East and Auburn plays in the much tougher SEC West. Georgia is 0-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games overall. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
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11-16-13 | Ohio State v. Illinois +33 | 60-35 | Win | 100 | 92 h 21 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #378 Take Illinois Fighting Illini over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) We will bite on this huge road number as we feel Illinois will be able to move the football a little big on offense. Ohio State has been rolling of late; however, they still have question marks on defense and Illinois has a decent quarterback that should be able to put up some points. Ohio State win but it comes closer than what the experts believe.
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11-15-13 | Washington v. UCLA -2.5 | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 77 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #316 Take UCLA Bruins over Washington Huskies (Friday 9 pm ESPN 2) Both of these teams are strong in 2013 after major rebuilding projects; however, I trust UCLA much more than I do Washington. The Huskies have rebounding to win two straight games against terrible teams (California and Colorado) after suffering a three game losing streak. Both teams have two losses against Stanford and Oregon but I just feel UCLA has a much stronger defense and playing in Pasadena is a big edge for Big Blue. UCLA has won 7 straight home games against Washington (5-2 ATS in those games). This is a big game for Coach Jim Mora, as he went to Washington and he wants to make a statement in this game. UCLA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as a favorite. UCLA keeps pace in the PAC-12 South with a convincing win on Friday night.
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11-09-13 | Notre Dame -5 v. Pittsburgh | 21-28 | Loss | -101 | 101 h 4 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #179 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Pittsburgh Panthers (Saturday 8 pm ABC) the Panthers have been waiting for this game since they fell to Notre Dame last year, but I just do not believe that they have the talent this year to beat Notre Dame. Pittsburgh has lost three of their last four games with their only win coming against Old Dominion (an FCS School). Notre Dame has won 4 straight games and they will match-up better against Pittsburgh as they have been playing triple option teams the last two weeks (similar to Pittsburgh). Three of Pittsburgh
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11-09-13 | Illinois v. Indiana -9.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 97 h 37 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #130 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Illinois Fighting Illini (Saturday 3:30 pm BTN) Granted Illinois played well last week against Penn State and should have beaten the Nittany Lions, but Indiana is not Penn State. The Hoosiers are explosive on offense and thus they will be able to cover this medium sized number. The Hoosiers are 10th in the country scoring 42 points per game and Illinois has not won a conference game since 2011. Out of those 13 straight losses, Illinois has covered just 2 of those games. Neither one of these teams will make a bowl game; however, Indiana has an identity and they are a lot farther along than Illinois is.
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11-09-13 | BYU v. Wisconsin -7.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 58 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #92/#159 Take Wisconsin Badgers over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year. Wisconsin just does not lose many games at Camp Randall, and that is especially true during nonconference games. This Badger team is starting to get healthy on defense with Chris Borland probable for this game, and this game has great significance for Coach Gary Anderson as he has significant ties to the Utah area. BYU has the better quarterback in Taysom Hill, but he is more of a running threat than he is a passing threat, and Wisconsin is more than capable of stopping the run. Wisconsin should also have a great scouting report since his former team Utah State already played BYU this season. BYU won that game, but the Aggies suffered an injury in the first quarter to their all-everything quarterback Chuckie Keaton. If Coach Anderson has a chance to run up the score, you can be sure that he will do that like he did last week against Iowa with a late touchdown with less than minutes to play in a game that was already decided. That is the type of coach we like for a big play. BYU should be undefeated at this point in the season, but they have a pair of shaky losses, one at Virginia and one at home against Utah. This is the same Virginia team with only two wins on the season, and their other victory came against VMI. Wisconsin is in the Top 21 teams in the country in both points scored and points allowed. BYU is a poor man
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11-09-13 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -16 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 12 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #160 Take Ole Miss Rebels over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 12:21 pm ESPN 3) Arkansas is terrible and now it is the Rebels turn to pound this team and record their sixth victory on the season. Arkansas has lost sixth straight games and they last four losses have been over today
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11-09-13 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -2.5 | 49-26 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #156 Take Texas Tech over Kansas State (Saturday 12 pm ABC) The Red Raiders have come back to earth after a 7-2 start to open the season. But now they return home to face the Wildcats, a team that just does not have the talent to complete against the top teams in the Big XII this season. This is just the third road games that the Wildcats have played this season and this will also be their third straight road loss. Texas Tech will throw the football all over the field and I just do not believe that K-State will be able to match their offensive firepower. Texas Tech is 10-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games following a double digit loss at home in their previous game. K-State is not OK State and thus if Texas Tech scores in the high thirties they will not only win but cover the spread as well.
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11-09-13 | Penn State v. Minnesota -1.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #82/#140 Take Minnesota Golden Gophers -1.5 over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) This is a case of name recognition of these two teams keeping this line much lower than what it should be. Minnesota continues to be underrated, and Penn State continues to be overrated. This is not the same offensive team as Penn State was in 2012, and this team has been blown out in both of their true road games this season (Indiana and Ohio State). Yes, the same Indiana team that Minnesota beat last year beat Penn State by 20 points on Oct. 5. Minnesota has been an underdog three straight weeks, and they have not only covered the spread in these games, but they have also won each game straight-up.
The difference between these two teams is that Minnesota has an identity of running the football and playing strong defense, and Penn State does not have an identity on offense or defense. Christian Hackenberg is just a freshman, and playing on the road is typically where you see young quarterbacks struggle. He has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, and this team was lucky to beat Illinois last week in overtime at home. This is the same Illinois team that has not won a conference game since 2011. Granted, Indiana had a chance to beat Minnesota last week (they were favored by 10 points), but the Gophers created a turnover down the stretch, and Penn State is nowhere near as explosive as Indiana is on offense. For whatever reason, this team has really responded to their new coach Tracy Claeys, and this is a magical season where Minnesota has a chance to make a New Year |
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11-07-13 | Oregon -10 v. Stanford | 20-26 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 54 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #113 Take Oregon Ducks over Stanford Cardinal (Thursday 9 pm ESPN) If you have been reading my 4th Down and Inches articles, you will know that I have went into great detail about how Stanford and Coach Shaw have been way to conservative this season in their play calling especially since inferior opponents. That will not be the case tonight as they will be running into a buzz saw taking on the high powered Oregon Ducks. I will not hesitate to lay the points on the road especially since Stanford is banged up on the defensive line. Oregon can score points at will and they want to make a statement in this game to move up to No. 2 in the country. The last time Oregon was in Palo Alto they knocked off Andrew Luck by a score of 53-30 and I see a similar margin of victory in this game. Oregon is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Take the chalk on Thursday night.
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11-02-13 | Boise State v. Colorado State +7 | 42-30 | Loss | -107 | 101 h 35 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #398 Take Colorado State Rams over Boise State Broncos (Saturday 8 pm CBS Sports Network) Never like to fade a team we used as a selection last week, but to me Boise State is lost without Joe Southwick at quarterback. I overvalued back-up QB Grant Hedrick as he played terrible and I do not see him getting better considering the Broncos are on the road for the second straight week. I believe that the entire Boise State offense has no confidence in him and thus this will be a struggle for sixty minutes. Boise State is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 MWC games. Colorado State has visions of going to a bowl game but needs this victory at home in order to achieve that. Colorado State is 6-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
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11-02-13 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech -9.5 | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 99 h 29 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #330 Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Pittsburgh Panthers (Saturday 7 pm ESPN U) The Yellow Jackets have been rolling of late coming off back-to-back impressive victories both by double digits. Georgia Tech is coming off a 10-point victory at Virginia despite turning the football over 5 times. Pittsburgh is coming off a tough beat against Navy, a team that is a poor man
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11-02-13 | Auburn -8 v. Arkansas | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 33 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #369 Take Auburn Tigers over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 6 pm ESPN 2) I still believe that Auburn is under ranked as they should be in the top 10 but started the season unranked and thus have had to climb their way up the ladder. They are 7-1 on the season with their only loss coming against LSU. Arkansas has fallen apart this season after starting the year off with three victories at home against cupcakes. Bret Bielema is a bumbling idiot that does not have the players to fit his system. He is not going to get it turned around this year and they only chance he has is to recruit players that fit his system. What makes me believe that Auburn will not have any issues covering this number is that these two coaches do not like one another as Coach Gus Malzahn has tied to Arkansas (coached at Arkansas State last year) and has been trading barbs with Coach Bielema all year long (Bielema accused him this week of doctoring game film). Both coaches will try and run up the score and to me that gives a pass happy Auburn offense the best chance for success. Auburn is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Arkansas is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.
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11-02-13 | Minnesota +9.5 v. Indiana | 42-39 | Win | 100 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #363 Take Minnesota Golden Gophers over Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday 3:30 pm BTN) For whatever reason, Coach Jerry Kill
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11-02-13 | Texas San Antonio v. Tulsa -3 | 34-15 | Loss | -117 | 96 h 59 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #346 Take Tulsa Golden Hurricanes over UTSA Road Runners (Saturday 3:30 pm) We got a little snake bitten last week using Tulsa as a selection, as starting QB Cody Green did not play and his back-up QB Dane Evans proved incompetent throwing three interceptions against Tulane. That was a game Tulsa lost 14-7, but had no business losing and expect them to right the ship in a big way at home against UTSA. QB Cody Green is listed as probable for this game and he will get this offense back on track. QB Green was 14 for 17 with two touchdowns the last time he took the field. Tulsa is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 Conference USA games.
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11-02-13 | Michigan +6 v. Michigan State | Top | 6-29 | Loss | -103 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #359 Take Michigan Wolverines over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) To me this game is a carbon copy of our top selection in college football last week, Texas @ TCU. Texas is Big Brother and so is Michigan. TCU has a great defense as does Michigan State and both teams have a shaky offense. Michigan likes Texas has shown flashes of greatness at times but also looked lethargic at other times.
But to me this game comes down to Michigan have better players 1-75 as a whole. Michigan State dominated Illinois last week and because of that game this spread just 3 points. Does beating Illinois deserve that much movement? Michigan State does not have a dynamic offense and they rely a great deal on their defense and field position in order to score points. This will be the best offense that Michigan State has faced all season and one must remember that Indiana had this Michigan State defense on the ropes early and could have put them down big but missed a golden opportunity in that game. As for Michigan it is important that they do not turnover the football and give the Spartans a short field. Michigan is coming off a bye week and this is a perfect setup for them. QB Devin Gardner has got his confidence back throwing 6 touchdowns in his last 3 games and he also have 4 rushing touchdowns during this span. He has the ability to escape the pocket and that will be essential against this strong Michigan State defense. Michigan State wins by defense and thus I am always weary of taking them as a favorite against a good team (no Illinois does not count as a good team). Michigan State is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. Take Big Brother and the points! |
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10-26-13 | California v. Washington -24.5 | 17-41 | Loss | -107 | 100 h 12 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #154 Take Washington Huskies over California Golden Bears (Saturday 11 pm Fox Sports 1) Washington is a huge favorite in this game despite losing three straight games, but the Bears are just what the doctored ordered to get back on track. California has a new coach, new system, and bad players who are injured on defense. That means the back-ups are playing and teams have been able to pick this team apart through the air. Cal gives up over 44 points a game and thus teams have the ability to cover big numbers against them. Washington has won and covered the spread in the last 4 match-ups. Cal is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games. Washington is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Cal has not beaten an FBS team this year and Washington needs a lightweight to take out their frustrations.
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10-26-13 | Florida Atlantic +24.5 v. Auburn | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #143 Take Florida Atlantic Owls over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN 3) The Tigers showed last week that they belong in the conversation as a top team in the SEC West. But that being said, this is a lot of points to be giving for a team that won just three games last year. Coach Gus Malzahn has greatly improved the offense, but the Tigers do not have a good defense. But what this game comes down to is the letdown affect, as Auburn will come into this game flat after a landmark win last week against Texas A & M. I fully expect Auburn to just go through the motions in this game. These teams met in Auburn in 2011 when the Tigers where coming off of a National Championship and won by just 16 points. That is how I see this game going as well. FAU has covered 11 straight road games. Auburn is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS victory in their previous game.
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