Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

We were on the Knicks Games 1 and 2 but took Game 3 off. We knew this wouldn’t be a sweep but we are confident the Knicks will win the series from the start. We knew the Spurs would win Game 3 or 4 so we are glad we took the night off Monday, and now it’s all systems go on the Knicks here for Game 4. In Game 3, the Knicks played an off game and still had a chance at the end. Maybe they were overwhelmed with the gravity of the situation and the Spurs played a really solid game. We think the Knicks are the better team right now and with the way they have played in the postseason, we don’t see them letting San Antonio back in this series.  

This is just too many points for the Knicks, who have put together one of the best playoff performances in history. They lost only two games in the playoffs, each by a single point, and have now rattled off 12 straight wins after stealing home court advantage with a Game 1 win. This is an extremely confident team right now and they are not going to be complacent with a Game 1 win and heading back to New York with a split in the series. They have the players needed down low to slow down Wemby and they are playing with a lot of confidence on offense. Game 1 was not a fluke. We think this will be a close game either way and we think the points might be crucial at the final buzzer.

Besides Game 3, where the Thunder won in San Antonio, the Zig Zag Theory has worked for every matchup in this series with teams trading wins and losses and covers. We have always expected the Spurs to put up a fight but for the Thunder to prevail in the end, and we will bank on that happening tonight as the Thunder have the pedigree and experience to succeed here in this high pressure situation. We think the Spurs will get their chip but they are at least a year away from being able to get to the finish line, but tonight’s loss will be a great learning experience and will pay off in the future.

The Knicks obviously match up well against the Cavs and Cleveland really blew it in Game 3 as they had a chance to get back in the series but they instead were blown out at home. Now down 3-0, they have no chance. Really don’t see a last gasp for them here in Game 4. The Knicks have looked like the best team in the playoffs so far and they don’t look like a team that will let up in this elimination game. With OKC and the Spurs locked into a tight series, there is extra motivation here to wrap this series up and have extra preparation time and rest for the NBA Finals.

We are taking the Spurs for the first time in this series as we think they will win at least one in the first portion of this series at home. San Antiono will make some adjustments here on the offensive end that will be able to produce stronger results, and we expect them to lock down on defense. The Spurs should even the series tonight with a comfortable win and we love their chances to do so.

New York has been the dominant team in this series but we think the Cavs will win at least a game and Game 3 looks like the likely candidate as this is a crucial game to get back in the series and save their season. The Cavs have won and covered three straight meetings at home, and this team has an extremely strong home court advantage this season, while the Knicks have not always been the same squad on the road that they have been at home.

2-Unit Play Take Oklahoma City +2 over San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST, Friday May 22)

The Thunder have a chance to regain home court advantage here and we throw out the regular season results between these teams as this is a different OKC team in the postseason than the one that slogged through the regular season. The Thunder were rusty in Game 1 but regained their edge in Game 2 and we think they continue the positive momentum here tonight.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

The Knicks were rusty to start Game 1 then dug themselves into a huge hole until one of the biggest chokes of playoff history as the Knicks not only came back to win it in OT but they also covered. The morale with this Cavs team can’t be strong right now and it will be tough to bounce back from that one, especially considering the Knicks are the much better team. Cleveland might make some noise when the series moves back to Ohio but we think we will see a dominant performance from the home team tonight.

We were on the Thunder Game 1 and they played their worst game of the playoffs and still almost won the game. It’s obvious they were a little rusty after the long layoff and the Spurs weren’t. But we think they will make the necessary adjustments needed here and some of the many players with cold shooting in Game 1 should heat up.

We always stated that we thought this series would go the distance, and here we are at Game 7 on Sunday night. Detroit has not had an easy road so far in the postseason but they have raised their level of play when it mattered most and we saw that against Orlando then again here in Game 6 of this series with a blowout win at Cleveland. Now it’s time to get the job done at home. The spread hasn’t really been a factor at all in this series and we think that will continue in Game 7 as Detroit earns a comfortable win to advance.

Both games in Detroit went under and both in Cleveland went over but we think Cleveland has taken over momentum in this series and their offense has figured out the Detroit defense. We expect a strong showing from the road team tonight and we doubt they will be held to the under 100 point average that they were in the first two games of this series. They averaged 114 in their last two games and we think they will get their share of this total tonight.

Minnesota obviously matches up well with the Spurs and they have them on the ropes as they evened the series in Game 4. This has been a very competitive series and we just don’t see the Wolves being blown out here and we think both teams get their share of the total, as 7 of the last 10 meetings have gone over.

OKC knows the assignment here and this team is ruthless and will not have a letdown game in an elimination matchup. With the Spurs having trouble in their series with the Timberwolves, the Thunder know it is crucial to wrap up this series early and have extra rest a preparation time for the WCF. They have won all but one playoff game by double digits and they have now won and covered eight straight vs the Lakers. LA doesn’t have any answers here and we think OKC steps on their necks here for a decisive Game 4 win to close out the series.

Even though the Cavs lost Games 1 and 2, they didn’t embarrass themselves and they are still in this series as far as we are concerned. They must win tonight and we think they will do that. The Cavs have enjoyed one of the best home court advantages in the Eastern Conference this year and this team has plenty of experience and we don’t think they are panicking and will go out and get the job done tonight.

The Thunder didn’t play extremely well in Game 1 and still covered the number. We think there is a great chance they play better and win by more in this one. The Lakers don’t have any chance in this series unless OKC has an off night. OKC has won the last six meetings by an average of more than 20 points!

With the Timberwolves win in Game 1 this team has now won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams. We think this line is ridiculous and a very public line. Will the Spurs win and even the series? Very likely. But we don’t think the Game 1 performance from the Timberwolves as a fluke. This team struggled a lot during the regular season but they are built for the postseason and they have a lot of experience here. We see a low scoring game either way, and that makes each of these points more valuable on the point spread.

OKC is well rested and they have had over a week to prepare for this Game 1. The Thunder are not the type of team that is going to be rusty. We actually think the time off will be beneficial to them. They have scored 120 or more in all of their last three games, and we don’t think the Lakers will be able to slow down this offense. The Lakers could win against Houston when scoring less than 100, but that slow paced game will not work against the Thunder so LA will have to score some points in order to be competitive here. We pretty much know the Thunder will get their share of the total and we think that the Lakers will do enough for their share as well.

Orlando had one of the biggest choke jobs in NBA history in Game 6 but lucky for them they were up 3-2 in the series and have another chance at redemption. That was a super embarrassing second half for Orlando and we think they will play well here with a chance to win. They had outplayed the Pistons most of the series and we think this line is an overreaction to Game 6. We think they will play even harder than they would if Game 6 was a normal game where they lost at the buzzer.

The Sixers have covered four of six in this series and they are once again getting a juicy line. Even though Embiid is playing with discomfort, this Philly team is finally healthy and they have played to their potential in the playoffs so far. They will no doubt give it their all here in Game 7, and the Celtics just haven’t looked themselves this series. The Sixers have won the last two games in Boston in this series and we think they will put everything on the line here in Game 7. All the pressure is on Boston, which allows Philly to play free and just do their thing.

Orlando has covered four of five in this series and we are a bit surprised they are getting this much value here in Game 6 with a chance to close out the series at home. The Magic had a disappointing regular season. But this team is built for the postseason and that has shown so far. The one game Orlando didn’t cover was that Game 2 in Detroit where the Magic struggled shooting from the floor and only scored 83. Franz Wagner is out for Orlando but they have been playing great team basketball and unselfishly, and that is the recipe for success with you don’t have a lot of big names on the roster. Orlando is very hard to beat at home, and if the Pistons extend this series it will likely go down to the wire.

Minnesota is a very good defensive team and they will circle the wagons here in Game 6 at home and leave it all on the floor defensively. We expect them to keep this one close. It’s either going to be a blowout by Denver or a low-scoring, close game, and we don’t see any scenario where the Wolves go toe to toe with Denver offensively. Both games in Minnesota went under and we expect more of the same here tonight as the Wolves give one last gasp on their season.

Really love what we saw from the Rockets in Game 4 and we think they have retaken the momentum in this series. It’s evident that Kevin Durant has played his last game for Houston and now the team doesn’t have to play the waiting game to see if he comes back or not. We like the confidence we have seen from Houston and they seem to believe that they can come back from a 3-0 deficit and they look like a team that will take it one day at a time. We see another great defensive effort from the Rockers and we expect a very close game and think they have a great chance to extend the series to Game 6.

None of the three games in this series have topped this total in regulation. Game 3 did, but only because of overtime. The total was 202 at the end of regulation, and that included a 71-point first quarter that was the highest scoring quarter of the series so far. The Rockets season is on the line here in Game 4, down 3-0 after losing a heartbreaker in OT in Game 3. Their offense has been a struggle all season and especially in the playoffs, where they have the lowest field goal percentage (the only team in the postseason shooting under 40 percent from the floor) and they are the only team in the postseason shooting under 30 percent from three (28.7 percent). The Rockets can’t rely on their offense to get them back in the series. They absolutely have to circle the wagons defensively and leave everything on the court, which we think they will. If Durant plays here it sounds like he could be a liability more than an asset as he is reportedly getting treatment on his ankle around the clock, and that sounds like it is pretty serious. They could try to rush him out too soon. We don’t think it will matter. The Lakers have been one of the top shooting teams through three games in the playoffs, and these games have still been low scoring. There is likely to be a regression there, and the Rockets should play strong defense. The pace in these games has been very slow compared to average, and that should continue here, draining the shot clock in the process. LeBron James has been playing hero ball in this series, but we think the Rockets will be able to slow him down, and he can’t continue to carry the team every game. Five of the last seven meetings have gone under the posted total, and one of the overs was that Game 3 result where the total was several points under at the start of OT. We lean to the Rockets here to give one last gasp, and we expect them to hold the Lakers under the century mark on offense.

We really love the Hawks since they have gotten healthy and have used them quite a bit for our service, but we think this is a bad spot for them after a pair of one-point wins to go up 2-1 in this series. The Knicks are still favorites to win this series and we think they circle the wagons and play their best game of the series tonight. Before the wins in Games 2 and 3, the Knicks had won six of seven against the Hawks.  This is a great spot for New York at a manageable price on the moneyline.

Webanyama is a game time decision and if he plays this prediction will hold even more value. But the Spurs are really stacked even without their star and we think the players will step up in his absence as they have done before. After losing Game 2 the Spurs really have to win this one and regain home court advantage, and we expect an A+ effort from them tonight.

We see some pace here tonight, especially because this is the first game in Atlanta. We are getting a solid number here since both games went under so far, but we see the Hawks having plenty of success at home on the offensive end and they will be fast in transition for some easy scores. Both totals went under but were close to going over, and home court for the Hawks will push this one over for Game 3. We liked the value at the opening number but are getting even better value here.

Game 1 went under as the Suns were cold and OKC played excellent defense. We really expect the Suns to step up their defense here and we think they will do enough on that side of the court to keep this one under and cover this big spread. The Suns have been one of the best ATS teams all season and we just don’t see consecutive blowouts. Phoenix seems like a team that can make adjustments on the fly and we think we will see that tonight.

We have to think Kevin Durant will play here for the Rockets and this line indicates that is likely to happen. The Rockets shot horribly in Game 1 but the game was still pretty close and we imagine they will shoot much better here. The Lakers aren’t going to shoot better than 60 percent from the floor and 50 percent from long range. We think Houston earns a comfortable win whether Durant plays or not.

4-Unit Play Take Boston -12.5 over Philadelphia (1 p.m. EST, Sunday April 19)

The Celtics are the most complete team in the NBA and they have a championship pedigree. They know the assignment here and we expect a blowout. The Sixers are without their best player and the Celtics will amp up their NBA-best defense for a resounding Game 1 blowout.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

3-Unit Play Take Atlanta +6 over New York (6 p.m. EST, Saturday April 18)

The Hawks have played as well as any team down the stretch. Early season injuries contributed to a slow start, but this is a complete team and a real contender. We think the odds here are a little disrespectful to the Hawks, and we think this series will go a long way and we wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks took over home court advantage with an outright win in Games 1 or 2.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

3-Unit Play Take Denver -6.5 over Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST, Saturday April 18)

Minnesota has turned it on in the playoffs in recent years but we just don't see it this season. This team just doesn't have it. At 37-45 ATS they often fell short of oddsmakers expectations, and they didn't get a good matchup for the first round as Denver knows the assignment here and will take care of business against a short line. The Nuggets have won and covered in three of the last four, and we think that trend continues here on Saturday.

4-Unit Play Take Toronto +8 over Cleveland (1 p.m. EST, Saturday April 18)

Cleveland was one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season and they are laying a big number again here on Saturday. The number is too big, in our opinion. Toronto doesn't have the household names but they play hard on a nightly basis and they play great fundamental team basketball. They have also had the Cavs' number with wins and covers in the last three meetings. We see this series going a long way and Toronto will have value throughout if the oddsmakers give us numbers like this.

What a disappointing season for the Magic, and we think the season ends here for them. Charlotte has been the better team down the stretch and they earned their chance here while the Magic played a pretty uninspiring game against in the loss at Philly. The Hornets have all the momentum, not to mention they have won and covered in three straight meetings. They have been more clutch lately and will come in with tons of confidence and not nearly as much pressure as Orlando. The Magic haven’t shown us much to think they will rise to the occasion in such a high pressure situation, while Charlotte is playing with house money here.

The Clippers would not even be in this position if not for a slow start to the season and they are a legitimate playoff team in our eyes. We expect a strong defensive performance tonight and Kawhi Leonard is rested for the Clippers and should have a big game. These teams always seem to play in low scoring games (the under is 7-1 in the last eight). And we think the Clippers take control of this and set up a meeting with the Suns for an invitation to the big dance.

We were on the under the last time these teams played and the Hornets filled up the basket all night to the tune of 136 points. That was an embarrassing defensive performance from Miami, who scored only 106. Miami plays at a fast pace but Charlotte plays at a slower pace, and in the postseason teams play better defense and that should be the case here with so much on the line. The Hornets were one of the best under teams all season long and we think they slow things down a lot here and this one should wind up well under the posted number.

The Clippers still have hope for the No. 8 seed but they really blew it on Friday in the loss to Portland. They need a win and Portland loss and there is a lot of difference between those seeds in the play in tourney. Golden State is locked in to the 10 seed and they will very likely play the Clippers in the play in tournament. We don’t think they have much interest in this game other than examining matchups for the likely play in game. And after seeing how Portland dismantled the Clippers, they probably want to play LA anyways and will likely tank here. Kawhi is a gametime decision for LA but regardless if he plays or not we see a very minimal effort from the Warriors here tonight.

Brooklyn has been one of the top under teams this season and we think this is another number that is too high. The Nets are coming off a matchup against the Bucks that totals 186. While we don’t think we will see a score that low, we think this one will be a slog as well. In half of the Nets last 10 games they have scored under the century mark on offense. But this team has been playing decent defense and that has kept them in games and led to some covers recently. The Pacers haven’t topped 108 points in their last three games, so their offense hasn’t looked very strong recently.

Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back, but the Thunder have superior depth and can easily handle any B2B. The Clippers, not so much. LA needs this win more than the Thunder, but they are the ones that put themselves in this position. They need to stay ahead of the Blazers in the play-in and try to catch the Suns. They play the Blazers next and could be looking ahead to that matchup. The Thunder seem to really be gearing up for the playoffs and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Lakers were without some of their best players last night, but OKC barely broke a sweat in their 36-point win.

OK is back to destroying opponents as they get ready for the postseason. They won their last two matchups by nearly 80 points! One of those was here in OKC against these same Lakers, a 43-point win. The Lakers even had Doncic and Reeves in that game, but they are both out tonight and LeBron James is a gametime decision. The Thunder have won and covered in four straight meetings with the Lakers now, and Los Angeles seems to bring out the best in this OKC club.

2 Unit Play. Take #701 Connecticut over Michigan (8:50p.m., Monday, April 6 TBS) Just cannot go against UCONN and this coach. Would go higher on this play if not for the injury situations for both teams, but we will grab the points around a touchdown. Michigan played the perfect game on Saturday against Arizona, and many are already crowning them champions. UCONN will relish this underdog role and take this game down to the wire. The Huskies shot it much better from the arc on Saturday and if they get a lead they are very tough to play against.

The Hawks have won 18 of their last 20 and they have covered in many of those games. We have been on the train many times during this streak. They have had a few tough teams during this run but mostly it has been tanking teams. So we think their current run is somewhat fraudulent. This is a team that could win a playoff series if everything goes right but we don’t see them as a true championship contender. We do see the Knicks as that, however. During the Hawks current streak they did lose to two true contenders in Houston and Boston. The Knicks had a recent tough stretch where they lost three straight but they have now won two straight and they should be ready for this one and Atlanta is no longer a team that can sneak up on opponents as everyone knows about their winning streak.

The Clippers haven’t been playing well lately and they suffered consecutive home double digit losses to San Antonio and Portland. Even though the Kings are tanking, it’s hard to trust the Clippers to go on the road and score a blowout. Sacramento has won consecutive games and they have covered in four of their last five, so they are playing hard on a nightly basis recently. The Clippers are 5-11 ATS as road favorites this season and we think this line is a little to high tonight.

6 Unit Play. Take #649 Illinois -1.5 over Connecticut (6:09p.m., Saturday, April 4 TBS) UCONN has no business being here and they are the least talented team of the four. Illinois has great size and too many weapons for UCONN to cover them all. The Huskies are well coached and have been great in the Final Four, but this is not a typical UCONN team. They are not super sized down low and are young. They shoot it poor from the arc until the final minute on Sunday and their luck will run out on Saturday. Sometimes talent is just too great to overcome and I believe that is the case on Saturday. The Illini are the most efficient offense in the country and if they play defense like they have been they could pull away and win this game by double digits. There is a reason a No. 3 seed is favored in this game over a No. 2 seed.

These teams played in San Antonio last month and the Nuggets won by five. You know the Spurs are a public team now when they are favored here on the road against a Nuggets squad that has won seven straight. They have played an easy schedule, but you can only beat who you are scheduled against, and you can’t deny Denver’s momentum with the playoffs approaching. They should bring their A Game today. The Spurs are also on a long winning streak but this may be a very tough matchup for them.

The Hawks have been steamrolling the league lately and winning and covering at a very high rate but we think this will be a flat game for them. The Nets are a team that always gives them trouble (8-2 ATS in the last 10) and they really challenged for the win the last time these teams played. They were down by only three heading into the fourth quarter and the Hawks pulled away for an 11-point win. The Nets have covered in three of their last four and five of their last seven and we think they play hard tonight. They have been playing solid defense lately, and that has led to covers. The Hawks have the Knicks and Cavs on deck so will want to conserve energy for those matchups.

This is the first game in four games where the Spurs have been under a 15-point favorite. This team is that good. We have said all along this is the only team that can disrupt the potential Thunder dynasty. They are playing championship-caliber basketball right now. San Antonio enters on a back-to-back but they have great depth and a young team and we don’t think that will be a factor at all, but we are getting a great value number as a result.

2 Unit Play. Take #895 Over in Stanford @ West Virginia (8p.m., Thursday, April 2 FS1) There has been a 3 week layoff for these two teams and I highly doubt they want to come into Las Vegas and grind it out in a defensive battle. Expect a lot of points in this and we will not worry about who wins it and just collect with the over. The Cardinal have scored at least 75 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Mountaineers play at a slower pace, but I don’t see them grinding this one out and I see them playing more up-tempo on Thursday.

2 Unit Play. Take #892 Colorado over Oklahoma (8p.m., Wednesday, April 1 FS1) COLLEGE BASKETBALL CROWN QUARTERFINAL This is a lot of points when motivation will be lacking for the Sooners. Oklahoma was left out of the Big Dance and thus I wonder how motivated they will be in Las Vegas. This is a former Big 12 matchup and I think it will be a competitive game that goes down to the wire.

Boston is playing championship level defense lately and this team is becoming an automatic under play. They have gone under in five of their last six and they visit the fastest team in the NBA on Wednesday in Miami. Boston definitely disrupted the rhythm of the Heat in their early February meeting and held Miami to under the century mark scoring. Boston won but also didn’t top 100. That was the seventh time in the last ten meetings these teams went under. Boston has the No. 1 defense for points allowed and they are playing with lots of pride on that end on a nightly basis. We are getting a big number since the opponent is the Heat, but we think they will go well under this total.

The Blazers have been playing excellent defense lately and have held their last four opponents to 100 or fewer points, which is almost unprecedented in today’s NBA. While we don’t see them making in five in a row with keeping the Clippers to under the Century Mark, we do think this total is too high. These teams are separated by a game and a half in the playoff race so this is a serious game and both teams should step up on the defensive end. Three straight meetings and four of five have gone under the posted number.

The Pacers won outright when these teams played in January and it wasn’t just a win as they won by 24. We don’t see that type of game here but Indiana has been a hot ATS team lately and they have covered five straight. This team is taking because of their trade with the Clippers, but they have at least played with heart and kept games close even though Ws have been hard to come by. The Heat have covered only two of their last seven, so they have been a bit overrated by the oddsmakers.

2 Unit Play. Take #634 Duke over Connecticut (5:10p.m., Sunday, March 28 CBS) These are two bluebloods that are facing off for a trip to the Final Four on the line. Duke is the more talented team and they play good defense as well. Just feel UCONN needs to play the perfect game to beat Duke and I do not see that happenings. Duke got their point guard back on Friday and that is a big boast that will allow them to win this game by double-digits.

2 Unit Play. Take #632 Arizona -5.5 over Purdue (8:49p.m., Saturday, March 28 TBS) It is Arizona's time. They had a very favorable draw and Coach Lloyd will get to his first Final Four as a head coach. Arizona is not a good matchup for Purdue and the Wildcats have better size down in the paint. Purdue would have to shoot it well from the arc, but they team has not played well to close out the regular season. They have gotten hot during the postseason but it will come to and end on Saturday.

Minnesota has been a lousy ATS team all season but we have to take notice on them as a small underdog at home. They have won four of five here at home vs. Detroit and this is a game they will play hard for. They have won four of five and are coming off consecutive wins vs. Houston and Boston, so that is impressive. Detroit has been racking up the wins but they have played a very weak schedule lately and we think the Wolves are the more battle tested team tonight and home court will reign supreme.

3 Unit Play. Take #624 Connecticut -1.5 over Michigan State (9:45p.m., Friday, March 27 CBS) This is not a vintage Michigan State over Connecticut team. Both struggle on offense, but I just feel UCONN has the experience to come out on top. The Huskies went 12-1 during nonconference play and look for them to defend the arc in this game and make the Spartans between them in the paint. They will be a grinder, but UCONN has had more tournament success in recent years that Mr. March and I see that helping them come out on top in this game.

3 Unit Play. Take #614 Houston -150 over Illinois (10:05 p.m., Thursday, March 25 TBS) I am all in with Houston winning this region. The winner of this game will be a big favorite on Saturday and the Cougars are playing this game just down the street. Illinois is not as strong as their metrics would indicate and I see a weak defensive team that Houston will be able to pick apart on both sides of the floor. The analytics give the Cougars over a 60% chance to win this game and we will pounce on this low number. The Illini have struggled against top teams down the stretch and I see Houston and Jim Nantz advancing to the Elite 8.

These are two Top 8 defensive teams for points allowed and they have both been playing playoff-quality defense lately. Three straight meetings and six of seven have gone under. We expect strong defense tonight in a battle of teams who could see each other in the postseason. Charlotte is currently in the play in tourney, but they can move up to the playoffs with a strong showing down the stretch. Points should be more difficult to come by tonight.  

Miami is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA this season and they have been putting up 120+ on a regular basis. Their opponents have been scoring a lot as well, and they have allowed 130+ in three of their last four games. Cleveland scored 136 last time out against Orlando, and we could see them get a similar result here tonight. That is the second time in six games they scored 130+. Five of the last six and eight of the last ten meetings have gone over the posted number.

Denver has won four straight meetings and covered in three of those, and the game they didn’t cover they missed the cover by only a point. We really like what we have seen from the Nuggets lately. They are healthy and rounding into playoff form. They have covered in five of their last eight games overall. They have won five of seven outright, and they have faced an overall challenging schedule. They are rested tonight with Monday off and they had Saturday off, while the Suns come in playing their third game in four nights. Rest advantages really come into play at this point of the season. The Suns snapped a five-game losing streak on Sunday with a win over the Raptors but they face a much bigger challenge tonight. Nobody expected much from Phoenix this season but they have been one of the best ATS teams of the season and a surprise all around. But the oddsmakers have caught on and they aren’t getting those value numbers on a night to night basis anymore.

The Hawks have won and covered in two straight meetings and three of the last four. This team is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and they have been beating bad teams by double digits on a regular basis. They have covered in 11 of their last 13 games. Memphis has covered in two of their last eight and half of those games were winnable games for the level of roster this Grizzlies team has right now. No reason Atlanta shouldn’t roll in this one.

3 Unit Play. Take #822 Kansas over St. John’s (5:15p.m., Sunday, March 22 CBS) Coach Pitino and the Red Storm went out in the round of 32 last year against a hall of fame coach and I see history repeating itself on Sunday. Kansas has player issues but they have talent and I do not see them getting run out of the gym against this St. John’s team. The Red Storm played in a weaker conference, and they are not prepared for the NCAA Tournament since they do not shoot it well from the field. St. Johns is good defensively, but they are just not the same team away from MSG. Kansas will be up for the challenge and I see them taking this one down to the wire and coming out on top.

Portland has won three straight so they may come in overconfident, even though two of those wins were against the Pacers and Nets. Their last win was impressive at Minnesota, but the Timberwolves have been a flawed team this season. Denver is not a flawed team, and we think Portland walks into a buzzsaw tonight. The last time these teams met, the Nuggets won by 50+. We think they match up well. Portland has some key injuries today, while Denver is relatively healthy. We see a double-digit win here.

The Lakers have won eight straight and they are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. We will jump on the bandwagon here. The Magic are banged up and have lost three straight. They have allowed 120+ on defense in four of their last six games, and the Lakers are really clicking offensively right now (they have almost 260 points in their last two games). We just don’t think the Magic will be able to keep up on the offensive end, and the Lakers offense is good enough to cover this number.  

4 Unit Play. Take #777 TCU +12.5 over Duke (5:15p.m., Saturday, March 21 CBS) Duke is not Duke at the moment. Injuries have caught up to them and they were in danger of going out in the first round had Siena had any depth. TCU is gone toe to toe with a bunch of top teams in the country this season including Florida and I see them keeping this game in single digits. This number is inflated since it is Duke and we will gladly take the points in this game.

Didn’t think we would see the day when we take a road favorite laying this kind of number but here we are. The Nets don’t even want to win games right now and most of their best players are sidelined. This is a rivalry game and the Knicks won’t take it easy on the struggling Nets, who have lost their last two in blowouts. New York has been blowing out bad teams lately, and the Nets haven’t covered in four straight meetings. Although this is a road game technically, the Knicks don’t have to travel far and will have plenty of fans in the building cheering them on.

3 Unit Play. Take #742 Under in Akron vs Texas Tech (12:40p.m., Friday, March 20 TruTV) Texas Tech is playing short handed and I believe Akron will want to slow down the pace of this game a little bit. The Red Raiders will enter this game having lost 3 straight games and the most they scored in any one of those games was 76 points. The Zips have scored in the seventies 4 of their last 5 games and I just see this game staying under the posted total.

3 Unit Play. Take #730 St. Mary’s over Texas A&M (7:35p.m., Thursday, March 19 TruTV) Texas A&M was not expected to do much this season with a complete roster turnover and a new head coach. They started off hot but did not finish the season well losing 7 of their last 11 SEC games to close out the season. I do not see them turning it around against Saint Mary’s, a team that has had decent success in the Round of 64. The Gaels are 27-5 this season and did beat Gonzaga at home. They have won 8 of their last 9 games and are scoring it a little better this season. They still like to control the pace and if they get ahead I see them winning this game by close to double digits. 3 of the last 4 years Saint Mary’s has won a game in the NCAA Tournament.

3 Unit Play. #734 Wisconsin over High Point (1:50p.m., Thursday, March 19 TBS) High Point is becoming a trendy pick to upset Wisconsin but I do not see that happening. The Panthers played a weak schedule from a one bid league, and I do not see them threatening Wisconsin due to their personal. High Point did not challenge themselves in the nonconference portion of the season and them playing up-tempo should play right into Wisconsin’s hands. A high scoring game will allow Wisconsin to cover this number that is trending back up. Wisconsin has too much to lose by taking this game lightly and I see them winning this one by close to 20 points.

3 Unit Play. Take #709 South Florida over Louisville (1:30p.m., Thursday, March 19 TNT) Louisville will be without Mikel Brown and the Cardinals have not been scoring a ton of points down the stretch. The Cardinals are just 3-3 in their last 6 games, and the ACC was just not that strong this season outside of Duke. The Bulls have stayed under the radar this season, but they will enter this game having won 11 straight games. Many of those games were not competitive and I see them taking this game down to the wire. Louisville has lost their last two Round of 64 games.

3 Unit Play. Take #688 Miami (OH) +7 over SMU (9:10p.m., Wednesday, March 17 TruTV) Just feel Miami is not getting enough respect against this average team from a weak power conference. SMU feel apart down the stretch winning just 1 of their last 6 games. Miami is just driving distance from Dayton and they should have a big home crowd for this game. The RedHawks have experience and depth and I do not see them getting run out of the gym on Wednesday night in the final play-in game for 2026.

This is an important game for both teams, especially Charlotte, who is currently holding the last play-in position in the East. They have a decent cushion but will surely want to climb into a better spot, and Miami is currently in the top play-in spot, so they can gain some momentum on the Heat with a win. Of course, Miami wants to get out of play-in position and get in the regular playoff field. And this is a division matchup. We think all these things combined will result in an elevated level of defense. And that’s not to mention that these teams played here earlier this month and the Heat won a high-scoring game, 128-120, so this sets up for revenge and some defensive adjustments from the Hornets, who have been one of the best defensive teams in the league for the last couple months. That game on March 3 was a rare over game at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, where the under is 21-10 this season. That is the second best under rate for a home team in the NBA. They are also the second-best under team with a day rest, where they can bring the defensive intensity, with a 24-14 mark for the under. Miami has their new fast-paced offense, but the Hornets will find ways to slow them down. Their offense has scored 103 or fewer in three of four games, with the outlier being against the sorry Kings, so they will have to devote themselves to a defensive gameplan because offense won’t be guaranteed. Miami has a decent defense for points allowed even at the pace they play at. Miami often faces inflated totals because of their style of play, but they have been hovering around 50% for unders in recent games as the oddsmakers post high totals in many of their matchups. This total has been adjusted higher quite a bit from that March 6 meeting, and we have a feeling this one will go well under the 229.5 total that was posted for that game. Six of the last nine meetings have gone under the posted total!

The Bucks (losers of 8 of 9) haven’t been much better than the Pacers (12-game losing streak) lately and we just think this is too many points. The Pacers will want to snap this losing streak and the players have some pride even though management probably doesn’t want them to win many games. What better team to do it against vs a struggling rival. There are a lot of players banged up for both teams and many game time decisions, including Giannis for Milwaukee. The Pacers have kept four of the last five meetings within seven points, and this is a winnable game for them today. Indiana at least had the day off Saturday, while the Bucks are on a back-to-back.

The Clippers don’t have great depth and now have to face Sacramento on a back-to-back. They were laying the same number to the Bulls last night and didn’t cover, and we think the Kings can keep this one within double digits. Sacramento has covered in three of the last four meetings, and we think fatigue will play a major factor for the Clips tonight.

4 Unit Play. Take #629 Virginia over Duke (8:30p.m., Saturday, March 14 ESPN) Just feel playing the late session and injuries will catch up to Duke in this game. Virginia is legit and I feel they will not get blown out in this game with the injuries Duke currently faces. Virginia got embarrassed at Cameron earlier this season but that has been their only loss since January 24. They will avenge that and take this one down to the wire.

 Unit Play.  Take #809 Purdue -3.5 over Nebraska (6:30p.m., Friday, March 13 BTN) Purdue has underachieved most of this calendar year, but they have more talent than does Nebraska. They won in Lincoln earlier this year and got back on track yesterday beating Northwestern by 13 points in a game that was not competitive. Now they face a Husker team that played an easy schedule down the stretch and they are not the second best team in the conference.

We have to plug our nose here and back this horrible Wizards team, but we think they will play hard tonight and keep this one within double digits. Washington is one of many tanking teams this season. But they were exposed on a major level nationally last game against Miami when they let Adebayo score 83 points for the second most of all time in NBA history. At the end of the game they were basically letting Adebayo do whatever he wanted and not even trying on defense, and their tanking ways were exposed to a wide audience. They received a lot of criticism. This team isn’t going to play hard on most nights, but this looks like a game where they will give 100% effort. They are rested while Orlando is on a back-to-back after a big game against Cleveland last night. Orlando has in-state rival Miami up next, followed by another division rival in the Hawks, and then they play the defending champs. They probably won’t give max effort here. Also, Orlando has been one of the worst ATS teams of playoff type teams this season, and their ATS mark isn’t much better than the tanking Wizards.

3 Unit Play. Take #764 Grand Canyon -3.5 over Nevada (5:30p.m., Thursday, March 12 CBS Sports Network) Grand Canyon is just a bad matchup for Nevada. The Lopes blew a game in Reno against them this season and should have won it despite key injuries. Nevada never really has success in the conference tournament under Steve Alford and they are likely heading to the NIT. The Wolf Pack have not done much on the road this season and will enter this game only beating Air Force away from Reno since January 3.

2 Unit Play. Take #747 Auburn +6 over Tennessee (3p.m., Thursday, March 12 SECN) Just feel Auburn will make a stand in this game with their tournament lives on the line. The Vols won the only meeting this season by 8 points in Knoxville, but they will enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games.

2 Unit Play. Take #654 Washington -4.5 over USC (2:30p.m., Wednesday, March 11 Peacock) USC has thrown in the towel and their coach cannot handle losing. Washington is not much better either, but they just beat USC by 19 points. I think the Huskies will want to win this game and advance onto Thursday and face the Badgers.

Charlotte had won six straight but are coming off consecutive losses but we like what we have seen overall from this team and this looks like a great situation for them to get back on track. The Blazers have beaten some bad teams lately but this team is not very good and they will face a tough task tonight against a motivated Hornets club. Charlotte is a very strong road team this season, and we think they win this one by a comfortable scoreline.

2 Unit Play. Take #630 Gonzaga over Santa Clara (9p.m., Tuesday, March 10 ESPN) Just see a letdown for Santa Clara in this game. Everyone now has them into the NCAA Tournament after beating Saint Mary’s late last night. Now they have less than a 24 hour tournament to place the 12th ranked team in the country. Gonzaga has had great success against Santa Clara and won the last 3 meetings by at least 8 points (39 points).

Houston is a Top 5 defense and the Spurs are the No. 7 scoring defense in the league that has been playing like a Top 5 defense lately. We think this will be a defensive battle. If you have ever been to Texas, you know there is a lot of state pride. When Texas teams get together to battle, they usually up the intensity, and we could see a playoff type atmosphere today in San Antonio. Both meetings this year went under this total, and we could see this one being even lower scoring than those two matchups.

2 Unit Play. Take #780 Maryland +15.5 over Illinois (3p.m., Sunday, March 8 FOX) Just see Maryland putting forth a decent effort in this game on senior day. The Illini are playing for a double bye and will enter having lost 2 of their last 3 games. I see this going being around 10-12 points and we will grab the points with the home dog, hoping David Coit can get out of his shooting slump.  

2 Unit Play. Take #702 Alabama -7.5 over Auburn (8:30p.m., Saturday, March 7 ESPN) Nobody wants Auburn in the NCAA Tournament with their nepo coach. Alabama can do the selection committee a big favor by beating them by double digits on senior night at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The Clippers played last night and were up 25 at one point against a Spurs team on a back-to-back, but then the lack of depth on this team showed up majorly and they lost the big lead and lost the game. Now they face a main rival who has won and covered three straight against them. The Grizzlies have covered in four straight games and they are rested with a couple days off. We think we will see their A Game tonight and we might sprinkle a little on the moneyline here.

3 Unit Play. Take #855 Over in Northern Iowa vs Illinois State (9:30p.m., Friday, March 6 ESPN+) 140 points were scored the last time these two teams met on February 25 and I see both teams reaching the 60s in points tonight in the final quarterfinal game of Arch Madness. This is a winner take all conference and thus teams will go all out at the end of the game with their season on the line. That should create excessive fouling by the team trailing and allow this game to go over the posted number.

The Spurs are on a back-to-back after their big win over Detroit last night, but San Antonio has been very good on back-to-backs recently. They have won and covered in their last four in this situation. They were at home last night and will be again tonight, so the B2B doesn’t really hurt them as much as it might if either of the games were on the road, plus the Spurs have a young and athletic team with great depth. The B2B is of no concern to us. The Clippers have been playing great and covering a lot of spread lately. But now they are getting hit with injuries a bit as Collins is out for a few games. They also lost Niederhauser for the season. The young player had been getting more playing time recently (around 16 minutes a game in the last 10 games) because of the lack of depth on this team. That he was even playing that much shows the lack of depth for this team, and this team just can’t withstand injuries right now and stay competitive. Kawhi can’t do it all himself. The Spurs have plenty of players that can step up in the case of injuries. San Antonio barely broke a sweat in their easy win vs. Detroit last night and we expect a similar result tonight.

2 Unit  Play. Take #799 Evansville +15.5 over Northern Iowa (9:30p.m., Thursday, March 5 ESPN+) This is a lot of points to be giving for a total that is only 125. Northern Iowa beat Evansville twice this season by 16 and 14 points. I see this game on a neutral site being around a 10-12 point game for the Panthers. They have bigger fish to fry and I do not expect them to blowout the Purple Aces when they know they still have 3 more games left to make the NCAA Tournament.

The Rockets offense is really clicking lately. And when they have an offense, combined with their stellar defense, this is one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA. They have scored over 120 in three of their last five games. Houston has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA at 20-7. A certain superstar in Houston will want perform well against his old team. The Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 and they just suffered double digit losses to the Clippers and Lakers. Now they face an even better team tonight.

The Hawks are finally fully healthy and they have won and covered in five of their last six games. We think they have a great chance for another win and cover here. This team has a lot more upside than the Bucks, who’s own players have told fans to limit expectations for the season. A healthy Hawks squad can make some noise in the play in tourney and possibly the playoffs. The Hawks played some crappy teams during this stretch of stellar play, but we have liked what we have seen from them. Milwaukee has dropped three straight, all blowout losses, and this team hasn’t looked competitive lately. The Hawks have won three of the last five visits to Milwaukee, and all the wins were blowouts. Could we see a repeat?

3 Unit Play. Take #708 SMU -1 over Miami (7p.m., Wednesday, March 4 ACCN) An old adage has always been play an unranked team that is favored over a ranked team. That is what we have tonight at Moddy Coliseum in Dallas, TX. Miami has been a surprise team this season, but I still do not believe their talent is reflective of being 12-4 in the ACC. SMU is looking to rebound after losing both games in the Bay Area, but they are a much better team when playing at home.

2 Unit Play. Take #633 Missouri over Oklahoma (7p.m., Tuesday, March 3 ESPNU) I do not think Missouri is that good this season, but this is a straight fade against Oklahoma. The Sooners are 5-11 in SEC play and have a coach squarely on the hot seat. The Tigers have won 6 of their last 8 games and will be looking for 3 straight wins come Tuesday. The Sooners have righted the ship, but I do not trust them to win either of the last two games to close out the regular season.

These are two Bottom 5 defensive teams that both have the ability to put up points and we expect a track meet here and think this one should sail over 250. The Jazz allow 126 points per game. Let that sink in for a second. These teams met on Thursday and the total finished over the number we have here but we think this rematch could see even more points as the Jazz will probably make adjustments in order to be more competitive offensively.

5 Unit Play. Take #703 Wisconsin -150 money line over Washington (4p.m., Saturday, February 28 FS1) Wisconsin does not want to drop two straight games against inferior competition and I see them bouncing back in a big way on Saturday. Washington has underachieved this season and they may be making a coaching change come March. The Badgers beat the Huskies by 26 points last year around the end of February and I see them winning this game by double-digits. Washington has home losses to Iowa and Penn State recently, both teams that Wisconsin destroyed this season. Oregon shot it well from the field on Wednesday, but I do not see Washington having similar success in what will be a dead environment in uptown Seattle.

The Clippers have covered in three straight and four of five meetings. Two of those were Timberwolves wins where they didn’t cover. This looks like another possibility tonight as the Wolves have been overvalued by the oddsmakers all season The Timberwolves have won four of five but have only two covers in that span. Those two covers were the only ones they earned in their last nine outings. The Clippers traded away two of their best players. But this is still likely a play in team and they still have Kawhi Leonard. They will be a tough out at home.

2 Unit  Play. Take #306515 New Haven +2 over Wagner (7p.m., Thursday, February 26) The Chargers are going for the season sweep of the Seahawks tonight in Station Island. New Haven is playing for a top 4 seed in the NEC and they have won 3 of their last 4 games. I see them taking this game down to the wire and covering the spread.

3 Unit Play. Take #761 Wisconsin over Oregon (11p.m., Wednesday, February 25 BTN) Oregon is having a terrible year and I do not see them finishing out the regular season strong. They may make a run in the Big 10 Tournament but I see them losing this home game tonight by double-digits. The Badgers are playing for a top four 4 in the conference tournament and they will likely get it if they win out on this west coast road trip. The Badgers have a pair of strong guards that should be able to dominate this game from the perimeter.

We like to take a good team off an embarrassing loss, and the Wolves certainly fit the bill here. They are coming off a home trouncing at the hands of the Sixers, who won by almost 30. It’s a long season and teams will have bad nights. But if they play another lousy game here, that would be problematic. We don’t see that happening. Portland is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games and they have been getting a lot of favorable lines. Minnesota is healthy here and this looks like a great spot for a double digit win.

4 Unit Play. Take #306603 New Orleans +12.5 over Stephen F Austin (7:30p.m., Monday, February 23 ESPN+) The Lumberjacks are again dominating the Southland but I see this game staying in single digits. The Privateers have a winning record in conference and already beat TCU this season. This was just a 5 point game when these two teams met earlier this season and I see this being a 7-9 point game.

4 Unit Play. Take #862 Wisconsin over Iowa (4p.m., Sunday, February 22 FS1) Wisconsin is a little banged up but they are playing at home and they do not want to lose 2 in a row. Iowa is coming off a court storming victory over Nebraska this week, but I see a letdown in this game. Iowa likes to keep the scoring low, but that will be hard to do if Wisconsin is making shots from the arc. Wisconsin has beaten Iowa 6 of the last 7 meetings and only 1 of those 6 victories came by less than 9 points.