Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on Giants -7
The Cardinals have struggled on the East Coast, going 0-5 when making the cross country trip in the 2008 regular season. The Giants will be very hungry at home tonight after getting their clocks cleaned by the Saints. The Giants won in Arizona by 8 points last season and I expect them to increase their margin of victory at home this week against an Arizona team that has struggled to defend the pass and is too one-dimensional offensively. Here's the key: the Giants are 6-0 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons, winning in these games by an average score of 36.7 to 13.8. New York shows us all not to read too much into last week's loss with a double digit win here.

5* Bears +1
Losing defensive end Antwan Odom deals Cincy a blow it won't be able to recover from today. Expect a huge day through the air from Cutler as the Bengals severely miss Odom's pass rush.

5* Cowboys -4
I'll take the Cowboys at home off a bye week as they are on a 4-1 ATS post bye week run. Atlanta's pass defense has been suspect this season, allowing 277 or more yards to the Panthers, Patriots and Bears. With a bye week to prepare, I expect Tony Romo and the offense to have a big day and to get the cover. Also, Atlanta is on a 0-6 ATS run the last 2 seasons after 2 or more consecutive wins. Lay the points.

6* Underdog Shocker of the Week on Dolphins +7
The Dolphins have a serious shot to pull off the upset at home against the Saints having had the bye week to prepare. New Orleans is in a big letdown spot after a big win over the Giants and it faces a team that is capable of possessing the ball to keep New Orleans offense off the field. We saw the Phins do it against the Colts to nearly pull off the upset on MNF and we can expect to see it again here. Take the points.

5* Chiefs +6
The Chiefs played the Chargers to a pair of 1-point games last season and they enter this home game jacked up after earning their first win of the year last week. Chargers Coach Norv Turner is 0-9 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992. Chiefs keep this one within a field goal at home.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Chargers -3
This game is huge for the Chargers in terms of the AFC West race. They can't afford to let the Broncos add to their division lead. San Diego is coming off a bye week so it will have a big edge in terms of preparation and it will also be the fresher team. Plus, the Chargers have home field on their side and not many teams have had much luck winning in San Diego the past few years. The Broncos are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this matchup and 0-6 ATS after a win by 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons. The Chargers are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6 and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Cash in with the Chargers Monday night as they defeat the Broncos for the 6th time in their last 7 tries.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Seahawks -3
Seattle is coming off a big 41-0 win over the Jags but I see no letdown today as the Seahawks look to send a message to defending NFC champion and division rival Arizona. The biggest reason I like the Seahawks here is because Hasselbeck is healthy again and I expect him to shred a Cardinals pass defense that is ranked last in the league. Hasselbeck has won 7 of 11 career starts against the Cards and I expect him to build on that here. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Seahawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Lay the number!

5* Ravens +3
After back-to-back losses, I expect a very good Ravens football team to bring an intensity to this game that the Vikings won't be able to match. Minnesota's running game is struggling and it doesn't figure to improve against one of the best run stuffing units in the league. Favre has really only played exceptionally well in 1 game, against his former team. He's going to have to play near-perfect today and I don't see it happening against a fast and explosive defense. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games while the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less. I like the Ravens to hand Minnesota its first loss of the season.

6* Early Upset on Texans +5.5
The Texans are catching too many points here. Every game the Bengals have played has gone right down to the wire. Of Cincy's 4 wins only 1 has been by more than this margin. In fact, the Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points while the Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Take Houston as it has an excellent opportunity to win this one outright.

5* MNF Side Winner on Jets -1
I strongly believe the Jets are the better team here and I will take them laying a small number. Miami won the division last season and because of it the Dolphins entered the season overvalued. If Brett Favre's arm wasn't hurt or if Tom Brady never went down, it's doubtful that the Dolphins would have won the divisions. QB Chad Pennington was a huge part of Miami's success last season and the Dolphins won't be the same team without him. Now, all they have is the running game and the wildcat and last year, Rex Ryan's Baltimore defense was able to hold the wildcat in check. New York shouldn't have much of a problem shutting down a one-dimensional Miami attack. The Jets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Miami and 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings overall. The Dolphins are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Take the Jets.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Seahawks -1
We'll back the Seahawks at home in a great spot Sunday. Seattle has lost 3 straight so it will be hungry for a win in front of its home fans and excited to play with Hasselbeck back under center. The Seahawks are clearly a different team with the 3-time Pro Bowler on the field. It's going to be hard for Jacksonville to match intensity with Seatle here. After consecutive division wins, I expect a letdown from the Jags. The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite and I'll back them here.

5* Cardinals -5
I'll take Kurt Warner and the potent Cardinals offense fresh off a bye week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. Here's the key: Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 350 or more yards per game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.

5* Rams +11
We'll fade the Vikes in this big letdown spot following an emotional win over the Packers for Brett Favre and company. There's no way the Vikes will be able to get up for this game the same way, especially with 1 less day to prepare following a Monday nighter, and with the Ravens on deck. Rams keep this one within the number.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Packers +5
The Packers are showing great value catching better than a field goal tonight when you consider that the underdog is on a 13-3 ATS run in games played at Minnesota in this series. Plus, Minnesota is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 22.2 to 27.7. Over the last 3 seasons, Green Bay is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in this matchup. Plus, the road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Much has been made about Favre wanting to payback the Packers, but I don't expect a top notch performance out of him tonight. He's just too emotionally involved in this one and faces one of the best secondaries in the league tonight. The value lies with the Packers.

6* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (NBC) on Steelers -6
The public is on the Chargers here, right where the books want them to be with this line. We'll go against the grain as I believe Vegas is tipping its hand with this curious spread. Conventional wisdom would have us believe that the Steelers should not be laying this many points off back-to-back losses against a team with a winning mark. However, the Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. Plus, the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Off back-to-back road losses, expect the defending Steelers to return home and deliver the goods on Sunday Night Football.

5* Cowboys -3
The Broncos may be 3-0 but their level of competition has been much weaker than that of the Cowboys. Denver can run the football, but Dallas does it better. Overall, the Cowboys are the much more talented team and they enter the season with a big ole chip on the shoulder after missing the postseason a year ago. Denver may hang tight early, but when it's all said and done, the Boys are at least a TD better. Dallas is an impressive 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Lay the field goal.

7* 2009 NFL Underdog of the Year on Raiders +9
I'm going big on the Raiders today as they face one of the NFL's worst defenses in a serious revenge spot after an awful showing against Denver last week. The Underdog is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the all-time series and the Raiders will not be lacking any confidence against a team they defeated 27-16 as a 6.5-point dog last season. The Texans are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games laying 3.5-10.0 points and I believe they are being severely overvalued this week. Take the Raiders.

5* Week 3 NFL Line Mistake on Raiders +2
I think the books have this one wrong. Oakland should be the favorite. Denver is lucky to be 2-0. The Raiders won on the road last week and they gave the Chargers, the best team in the division, all it wanted and more at home in Week 1. The Broncos are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 vs. the AFC West. Bet the Raiders!

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Month on Chicago Bears -2.5
Love the Bears today with coming off a huge confidence boosting win over the Super Bowl champs and against a Seahawks team whose starting QB is dinged up. Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - off a road loss, in September games are 72-34 since 1983. The Bears are the better team, especially on the defensive side of the football, and that's where they win this one.

6* NFL Underdog of the Week on Titans +3
I'll back the Titans catching a field goal here as they are in desperation mode after an 0-2 start and they will do whatever it takes to get a win today. Plus, can't see the Jets getting up for this one the way they did for New England last week. Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons and I look for them to win this one outright behind one of the strongest running games in the NFL.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Dolphins +4
I really like the Dolphins at home catching points in this spot, especially since over 70% of the betting public is on the Colts. Indy was a slow starter a year ago and that looks to be the case again as it gets used to life without Tony Dungy. The key here is that Miami is better at running the football and better defensively than the Colts. Miami's defense was strong last week but the offense was sloppy. Look for the Dolphins to clean things up offensively and win this one outright. Miami owns an 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS edge in the L12 meetings and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Take the points.

7* NFL Underdog of the Month on Bengals +9.5
Plain and simple, Green Bay is getting too much respect here. The Packers only won 6 games last season and they looked like a 6-win team in Week 1 as they were very fortunate to win. The public is big on Green Bay here, but keep in mind that the Packers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Cincy's defense has played great in 4 straight regular season games now dating back to last season and I look for the offense to click this week as Carson Palmer gets it going after getting the rust off in Week 1. This one stays within a touchdown so I'll gladly take the 9.5 points here.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Raiders +10.5
I'll take the anti-public home dog here as the Raiders look to pay the Chargers back for 11 straight defeats. Remember that Oakland had San Diego down 15-3 heading into the 4th quarter in last year's home contest before the Chargers outscored the Raiders 25-3 in the 4th. Can't say that was a fluke either as Oakland outgained the Bolts and possessed the ball more. The Raiders have been preparing all off season for this game and I expect them to give the Chargers more than they want in their season opener. The Chargers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 (-10 at most books), 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take the points.

5* Packers -3
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers air attack should have its way with a Bears pass defense which ranked right near the bottom of the league last season. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Take Green Bay.

5* Falcons -4
The Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1 while the Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1. The Dolphins are also just 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Falcons were 7-1 at home last year and I like their high powered balanced offensive attack to get the job done.

5* Bengals -4
With Carson Palmer healthy, the Bengals will once again put an offense to be feared on the field. Denver has struggled defensively and now the offense takes a hit without Jay Cutler around. The Broncos are 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games overall and they are getting showed too much respect here.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Dallas Cowboys -5.5
Dallas traditionally gets out of the gate fast and Tony Romo has been on his A-game in September. This is a rebuilding year for the Bucs and I just don't see them hanging with Dallas here. The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in September.

5* Eagles -1
Plain and simple, I think the Eagles are the better team and they prove it here with at least a field goal victory. They are an impressive 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.

7* Super Bowl XLIII ***HEAVY HITTER*** on Cardinals +7
Including Arizona's wild card win when it opened as an underdog, the Cards are a perfect 3-0 as an underdog in these playoffs. While some will say they defied the odds, I'll argue that the odds were not very good. Many got a soured opinion of this team when it was getting crushed late in the season but those were meaningless games as the Cards were the first to clinch a playoff spot. Warner proved against an Eagles defense, which is very similar to Pitt's, that he can get rid of the ball quickly and accurately against the blitz. No team in the NFL has a receiving trio like Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston and that is going to put a lot of heat on the Steelers secondary. Arizona's defense has really stepped it up and it will face an offense that will not scare it one bit. The Steelers have struggled offensively all season and that is the main reason why they don't deserve to be laying 7 points. The Cards also have the coaching edge with Whisenhunt knowing the Steelers personnel and tactics as well as anyone outside the Steelers. This was made evident when Arizona beat the Steelers in the regular season last year. Lastly, and most important, Arizona has brought its best against the best. Zona is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). The average score was ARIZONA 20.4, OPPONENT 22.6 in these games. Take the points!

7* Conference Championship Game of the Year on Steelers -6
Odds makers have either missed this line or they have accurately baited the public into a terrible trap. I'm thinking the latter. The Ravens played the Steelers as tough as anyone this season, losing by 3 in OT at Pittsburgh and by 4 at home. Odds makers gave the Ravens 6 points knowing that the public would jump on it and now they have the public right where they want it. Because of the bye week, Pittsburgh comes into this one as the healthier team and also as the better offensive team. The Ravens offense has been awful against the Steelers' No. 1 ranked defense this season and it was not able to do much of anything against a solid Titans defense last week. Pittsburgh's confidence grew immensely as it was able to run the football very effectively against the Chargers. The Steelers won't likely be able to run as effectively against Baltimore but I have to side with Ben Roethlisberger over rookie Joe Flacco any day of the week. Flacco was atrocious in December against the Steelers with a QB rating in the low 20's. Big Ben and the Steelers have been here before and that also bodes well for them. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 playoff games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in January, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the AFC North. We'll ride this 19-0 ATS Angle to a big winner Sunday!

7* NFL Playoffs GOTY on Chargers +6
San Diego is clearly playing better than it was when it played the Steelers to an 11-10 game in Pittsburgh in November. The Chargers are rolling and playing with nothing to lose. The key here is that the Pittsburgh offense has not performed well because of a poor offensive line. Defense does win championships but you can't win if you don't score. Philip Rivers has been one of the best QB's in football this season and I like him to outshine a banged up Ben Roethlisberger in this game. The Chargers are 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. SD is 8-0 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992, 6-0 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, and 6-0 ATS after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, the Bolts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games. We'll take this 24-0 ATS Angle to the bank!

4* 41-6 ATS NFC Divisional Playoffs GEM on Eagles +4
The Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. The Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. We'll take the Eagles.

7* NFC Playoffs GOTY on Panthers -9.5
Carolina was 8-0 SU & 5-2 ATS with a winning margin of 15.3 ppg at home this season. The Cards were just 3-5 on the road allowing 31.0 ppg and were dominated on the East coast, going 0-5 in the Eastern Time Zone. I know the Cards played the Panthers tough in Charlotte earlier this season, but that won't be the case here. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Odds makers have the public right where they want them, on Arizona, watch the Panthers cruise.

7* NFL Wild Card GOTY on Eagles -3
Philly knows it is fortunate to be in the playoffs and it will not take this opportunity for granted. This is a proud franchise and Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid both know that an early exit won't be tolerated by its rabid fan base. The Vikes are only 1-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons, losing to these teams by 10.4 points on average. The Vikes are also 0-6 ATS after playing a game at home this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 10-1 ATS off a division game over the last 2 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 28.4 to 13.8. Lay the number.

5* Sunday AFC Wild Card HEAVY HITTER on Dolphins +3.5
Plays on any team (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-9 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take the points!

5* Saturday NFL Wild Card TOP SIDE on Chargers +1.5
San Diego is a much more confident team than it was earlier this season when it lost to the Colts by 3 points. It is also consistently one of the toughest home teams in the NFL. The Chargers don't fear Indy at all and were responsible for knocking the Colts out of the postseason a year ago. The Colts have won at home by an average of 10.9 ppg this season while Indy has actually allowed more points on the road than it has scored. San Diego has won 9 of the last 14 matchups in this series and is 10-4 ATS in those game. SD is 12-3 ATS against AFC South division opponents since 1992 and 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the Chargers at home.

6* SNF Heavy Hitter on Chargers -8
The Broncos and the Chargers are heading in entirely different directions. I like the Bolts to complete their miraculous comeback with a blowout win at home this Sunday night. Denver is just 1-4 ATS in division play this season which is why I won't bite despite the fact that odds makers are begging for bettors to take the points in this winner take all affair. SD is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this matchup and is very bitter over its only loss SU to the Broncos over the last 3 seasons ( a blown call by an official). The Broncos are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 in division play. Denver is 0-8 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NFL Do-or-Die GOTY on Eagles -1
It's do or die for Dallas and I agree with odds makers that it will be die. This is a revenge game for Philly, which always plays the Cowboys tough. The Eagles have won 10 of the last 16 at home in this series and they are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS versus the Cowboys in all games the last 3 seasons. The fact that Philly did not show up in Washington last week makes this play even stronger as the Eagles are 8-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 27.2 to 15.6. Dallas is only 3-12 ATS in road games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/attempt since 1992 and 3-12 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Romo and the Cowboys continue to falter late in the season and we will fade them here.

5* NFC South Heavy Hitter on Saints +3
The Saints are 5-1 SU and ATS at home this season and showing no signs of laying down despite being out of playoff contention. The Saints have won 5 of 6 down the stretch and have been surprisingly tough against the run. The Saints were beat badly in the first meeting this season and I like them to have some revenge this week.

7* NFC North GOTY on Bears -4
This is a payback game and the Bears will have their home field and the drive that a must-win situation brings behind them. The Packers have lost 4 in a row SU and ATS and are only 2-5 on the road this season. Here is the key: The Bears are 10-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss against an opponent by 14 points or more since 1992, winning these games by 6.4 ppg on average. Chicago is also 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by 12.9 points on average. With as poor as Green Bay's defense has been on the road (27.1 ppg), I like the Bears by at least a TD tonight.

6* SNF GOTM on Giants -3
It's bounce back time for the resilient Super Bowl champs at home. Plays on favorites (NY GIANTS) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, in the second half of the season are 69-36 ATS the last 10 seasons. Plays on home teams (NY GIANTS) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) after 8 or more games are 32-8 ATS since 1983. Lay the points.

7* NFL Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on Dolphins -3.5
I know the Phins have been overvalued a lot at home this season, but they have not on the road where they are 4-2 SU and ATS. This is another must-win game for the Phins and I like them to get it easily against a Chiefs team that is going to have a tough time getting up from yet another 1-point loss to San Diego. Miami is 30-12 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992 and 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS versus the Chiefs during that span. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while the Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Lay the number as Vegas has missed this line by at least a field goal.

5* NFL Saturday Night HEAVY HITTER on Cowboys -4
Dallas is confident and at home where it is 6-1 this season. Baltimore's offense struggled against a great Steelers defense last week and it will struggle on the road again against a Cowboys defense which is finding its groove. Dallas is only allowing 19 ppg at home this season while scoring 28.3. Dallas has held each of its last three opponents to 9,20, and 8 points respectively. The 20 it gave up to Pittsburgh is misleading because it was not the Pittsburgh offense which earned those points. With Dallas' defense playing better than it has all season, we'll roll with the Boys as they clearly have the edge offensively. Plays on home teams (DALLAS) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) are 32-8 ATS since 1983. Lay the points.

7* AFC South GOTY on Jags +7
I love the Jags at home catching points tonight. Jacksonville has already beaten the Colts this season and it always gives its best shot against its biggest division rival. The Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. The Colts are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and 0-4 ATS in division games this season. The Colts are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 16. The Jaguars are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog and 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Indy has not won by more than 4 points on the road all season. Take the Jags tonight.

7* MNF Heavy Hitter on Eagles -14
With the Cowboys beating the Giants last night, this becomes even more of a must-win for the Eagles. Cleveland is hurting on both sides of the football and lost by 19 points against a Tennessee team last week which doesn't have close to as much fire power as the Eagles. Plays on favorites off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night are 30-10 ATS the last 10 seasons. Lay the number.

5* AFC West Game of the Week Chargers -5
It's been a terrible struggle for the Chargers this season on the road, but the Chiefs have been equally bad at home at just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. What gets lost in San Diego's record is that it is still 3-1 SU and ATS within its division. The Chargers played very poorly and still beat the Chiefs at home by a point earlier this season. I like San Diego to build off of a blowout win against Oakland and crush the Chiefs this week. San Diego will have had an extra three days to prepare for this contest and that will prove huge here. SD is 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS in December games over the last 2 seasons, and 13-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Lay the number.

7* NFL Public Massacre of the Year on Texans +3
Is there a reason why the 6-7 Texans are only 3-point dogs against the 12-1 Titans? Vegas is letting us know that the Texans have an excellent shot at winning this football game and I believe they will. They know that the public will be all over the Titans with this line and they looking for a big pay day with a Texans win. Houston has now won 3 straight games and has covered the number in 4 straight. It is also a strong 4-1 ATS in division games. Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where an opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992,winning these games outright by an average score of 24.8 to 20.6. After back-to-back weeks with the Lions and Browns, the Titans will get a real test and they will not pass. Take the points.

5* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Green Bay -1
Green Bay is a much better football team than its record indicates. Outside of a blowout loss at New Orleans, it has played right with each of its opponents over its last 6 games. That includes a 3-point loss to Tennessee, a 1-point loss to Minnesota, a 4-point loss to Carolina, and a 3-point loss to Houston. Green Bay's win during this stretch was a blowout win over the Bears. The Jags have been beaten by double digits by the Titans, Vikes, Texans, and Bears over their last four games. The Jags are 0-6 ATS in home games this season. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons and 15-6 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Packers.

7* NFC GOTM on Saints +3
Both teams need this game, but it is especially a do or die game for the Saints in the much tougher NFC South. The Bears have been torched by the pass all season and the best passing team in the NFL will have their way with Chicago tonight. The Bears are allowing a ridiculous 358 yards per game at home this season. New Orleans has covered the spread in 4 straight and is an extraordinary 17-6 ATS off a home win against a division rival since 1992. Chicago is just 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

7* MNF GOTY on Panthers -3
I love the Panthers at home in this revenge spot after getting kicked at Tampa Bay earlier in the season. Plays on any team (CAROLINA) revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season are 33-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Carolina is a perfect 6-0 at home and I like the Panthers to defend home field yet again and cover the number in the process.

7* NFL GOTM on Steelers -3
I love the Steelers at home with their ferocious defense this week. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 December games and it will not fare well in the icy cold Steel City Sunday. In addition, Dallas is just 4-14 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points since 1992 and 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. There has been no Big "D" for Dallas this season with the defense getting crushed on the road. We'll lay the chalk with the Steelers here.

5* HEAVY HITTER on Bears -6.5
Chicago is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 30.6 to 15.8. The Jags will be playing a cold weather game off a short week and off 3 straight losses. Bears need this one to stay alive in the North and they'll get it.

5* HEAVY HITTER on Packers -5.5
The Texans have shown improvement, but the reality is that they are a terrible road team at just 1-5 on the season. Plays against underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 38-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. Houston is allowing 27.7 ppg on the road this season and a good Green Bay offense will torch the Texans this week.

5* NFL Line Mistake of the Week on Chargers -9
The Chargers will take out a season's worth of frustrations on the Raiders tonight. They beat Oakland by 10 on the road and I like them to double up on that number here. The Raiders are only 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the favorite is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. San Diego is 17-5 ATS versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=285 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Lay the points.

7* MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans -3
You saw how much momentum New Orleans' first road win of the season created when it returned home and kicked Green Bay last week. I'll learn from that and take the Texans here off its first road win of the year. The Jaguars are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Houston and only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 overall with the Texans. Houston is a solid home team and much more explosive on offense than the Jags. Jacksonville will get left in the dust.

7* NFC GOTY on Vikings -3
I love the Vikes at home here with a win giving them sole possession of first place in the North. Minnesota is playing the best football in the division right now and we'll be out to avenge an earlier season loss to Chicago in which it gave up 48 points. The home team has punched winning tickets in this series at 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. I also love going against the Bears following a win as they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games in these spots. We'll lay the points.

4* Packers -3
The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Green Bay needs this one more and will bounce back at home following its worst defeat of the season.

6* NFC South Game of the Month on Saints +4.5
Off back-to-back wins for the first time all season and with the winless road streak no longer hanging over them, the Saints can go after the first place Bucs this week. New Orleans has already beaten the Bucs this season and I like its chances to pull off the season sweep here. This one has letdown written all over it for the Bucs which are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Underdog is also a strong 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings and the Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Saints.

7* Thursday Night NFL GOTY on Eagles -2.5
McNabb being benched was the wake up call he needed. With the Eagles back at home where the defense is only allowing 16.4 ppg, I like them to take it to the Cards. The Eagles are winning by an average of 9.2 ppg at home this season and I like the offense to be able to move the football against an Arizona team allowing 25.5 ppg on the road. Philly is a strong 16-5 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992 and 18-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. since 1992. Lay the points.

5* Thanksgiving Day National TV BEST BET on Seahawks +13
Big underdogs of 10.5 or more points, which has been outgained by 100 or more ypg this season, and after being outgained by 100 of more total yards in consecutive games, are an awesome 25-4 ATS since 1983. This is the ultimate bounce back system. Take the Seahawks.

7* MNF HEAVY HITTER on Green Bay Packers +1
The Packers are a more balanced football team on offense and than the Saints and that will keep the Saints defense off balance all night long. Green Bay has one of the best passing defenses in the NFL and that will limit the one-dimensional Saints tonight. Mike McCarthy

4* Broncos -9
Oakland is 1-8 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Raiders can't find any their offense anywhere and Denver's has shown signs of life with back-to-back road wins. The Raiders won't be able to stop the Denver passing attack. Lay the points.

4* Vikings +2.5
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS at home and it will be no match for a better Vikings team this week. Plays on road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 74-36 ATS since 1983. We'll take this time tested system to the bank.

7* NFL Non-Conference GOTY on Eagles +1.5
Flacco will be a sitting duck for the Blitz-happy Eagles just as he was for New York's pass rush last week. There's nothing worse than kissing your sister and that spells all out revenge for the Eagles here. The Ravens are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss. The Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the Eagles.

Pats +1
The Patriots are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Dolphins are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC East and 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 home games. The Road team is also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The Pats get revenge!

7* AFC GOTM on Steelers -10.5
The Bengals are 0-5 on the road this season losing by an average of 12 points in those games and they take on a team that crushed them by 28 one month ago. Expect the same result tonight. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Pittsburgh and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. Steelers dominate tonight.

6* Sunday Night Football GOTM on Dallas -1
Odds makers are giving the edge the edge to Dallas on the road over a team that beat them at home when they were a lot healthier. That's tipping their hand if I've ever seen it. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival since 1992, 6-0 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Dallas gets revenge against its biggest rival this week.

4* 49ers -6
Mike Singletary's 49ers showed they have a heartbeat last Monday night and I like them to continue to build off of that performance against the Rams who are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in this series. The Rams are now 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NFC West and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Rams are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and that's trouble with as good as Frank Gore looked last week. Lay the points.

7* NFL Favorite of the Year on Falcons -6
The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning by 13.3 ppg in those contests. Denver's defense is giving up 29.5 ppg on the road this season and that will not bode well for them here against a Falcons team that can control the football with its strong running attack. Denver is 0-7 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons, 0-7 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons, 0-6 ATS after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons, 0-12 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons, and 0-6 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Chiefs +16
I know the Chargers are home off a bye week, but the Chiefs are playing much better football and can stick right with a San Diego team which is allowing 24.9 ppg this season. KC has taken the Jets and the Bucs down to the wire the past two weeks, putting 27 points on the board against a very good Tampa Bay defense. Plays on road teams (KANSAS CITY) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 22-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

7* AFC East GOTY on Patriots -3.5
We have to take the favored Pats at home in this one. In this head-to-head series, backing the favorite has been money as the fave is 20-3 SU and 15-6-2 ATS in the last 23 meetings. We'll also play against underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) off a loss against a division rival, in weeks 10 through 13. This system is 37-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Pats win this one easily.

7* NFL GOTY on Broncos +3.5
After last week's disappointing home loss to Miami, I expect to see the best performance we have seen from Denver since early in the season. I don't see Brady Quinn coming in and working wonders for the Browns right away because it just doesn't happen. The kid is going to struggle. Denver is 3-0 SU and ATS at Cleveland over their last 3 meetings and 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meeting overall. Play On road teams (DENVER) - after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 62-29 ATS the last 25 years. We'll take the points.

7* MNF HEAVY HITTER on Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5
After going down to New York last week, you have to like the Steelers to bounce back with a win here as few teams have been better against top notch competition. In fact Pittsburgh is 27-10 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992 and 32-13 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Washington has not exactly been playing great football either. The Skins lost to St. Louis 3 weeks ago and then has only manages to scrape by the past two weeks against Cleveland and Detroit. We'll take the Steelers.