Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

6* Cowboys/Colts Late Afternoon ATS Rout on Colts -4.5
The Key: Off back-to-back poor performances by Peyton Manning, expect him to come storming back against Dallas' weak pass defense. The Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

7* NFL Public Opinion Game of the Year on Falcons -3
The Key: Atlanta takes care of business today because of its strong running game. As was the case in its first win over TB, the Falcons will control the clock against Tampa Bay's 27th-ranked run defense (132.5 ypg allowed). The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Take Atlanta.

6* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles -8
The Key: The Texans have fallen behind early all season as it takes their porous defense a while to adjust. I expect this trend to continue tonight, but Philly won't let its foot off the gas pedal following a loss to the Bears. Philly is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 vs. poor passing defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season, winning these games by 10.8 points on average. Take the Eagles.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -2
The Key: The 49ers won both meetings last season, and those wins came against an Arizona team quarterbacked by future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner. The Niners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games at Arizona. Lastly, SF is 6-0 ATS off an upset loss over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

5* Bears +4
The Key: These teams have faced off each of the last 3 seasons. As an underdog each time, the Bears have managed to win 2 of the 3. The lone loss came by only 4 points. Love Smith has had success in figuring out Andy Reid's offense, and this is the best Bears defense since its Super Bowl season a few years back. Take the points.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Month on Ravens -7
The Key: Under coach Harbaugh, Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 30 points or more in its last game, winning in this spot by 21.4 points on average. Expect the Ravens to flex their muscles on their home field today, showing everyone why they are serious Super Bowl contenders.

6* Steelers -6
The Key: Pittsburgh has won 7 of its last 8 against the Bills, and 6 of those wins came by more than 10 points. Look for this trend to continue.

7* NFL Thanksgiving Day *HEAVY HITTER* (FOX) on Saints -3.5
The Key: It's payback time for the Saints, who had their perfect season spoiled by Dallas last year. The Cowboys have looked a lot better the last two weeks, but I expect Jon Kitna to struggle against the Saints' second-ranked pass defense. The Saints are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. They are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games as a favorite of 7.0 points or less. Lay the points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers -8.5
The Key: San Diego crushed Denver 32-3 in the last meeting. With a bye week to get healthy and to prepare extensively, I expect the Chargers to lay the wood tonight. Denver may have won big last week, but its defense still allowed 484 yards in that game. That is a major concern, considering San Diego has the best offense and defense in the league statistically. Denver is 0-7 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 30.0 to 19.4. Lay the points.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month (NBC) on Giants +3.5
The Key: The Giants have been great in highly motivated spots following losses of 10 or more points at home. In fact, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in this situation. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the underdog is an awesome 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. Philly enters flying high after a Monday night win over the worst defensive team in the NFL, but I expect the best defense in the league to win the battle against the Eagles tonight.

6* NFL Late Afternoon *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -3
The Key: The 49ers are starting to play some football. Plus, it is extremely tough to play clear across the country. It screws with the body clock way too much. That's a big reason why the 49ers are 11-1 all-time at home against Tampa. The 31st-ranked run defense of the Bucs won't hold up against Frank Gore and company this afternoon.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Lions +6.5
The Key: Last week's win is not enough for the 2-7 Cowboys to be getting this much respect from odds makers, especially against a Detroit club that has 4 losses by 5 or fewer points to Super Bowl contenders (Chicago, Green Bay, Philly, NY Jets). The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Bet Detroit.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Miami -1.5
The Key: Forget about the fact that Miami is playing its third-string QB, the advantage definitely goes to the home team in this spot with just a few days to prepare. Plus, this is a tough, tough matchup for the pass-happy Bears, as Miami boasts one of the best pass defenses in the league (6th in the NFL). I anticipate too many mistakes by Cutler for the Bears to come out on top here. The Bears are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Take Miami.

7* NFC East Game of the Month (ESPN) on Eagles -3
The Key: As if last month's loss to Washington isn't enough motivation, New York's surprising loss to the Cowboys gives Philadelphia the opportunity to move into a tie for first place with a win tonight. With revenge on their mind and first place on the line, I expect the Eagles to be ready to go. The Eagles are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings at Washington, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday night games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Redskins are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday night games. Lay the points with Michael Vick and the Eagles.

6* Cowboys +14
The Key: Taking underdogs that are average offensively (18 to 23 ppg) against an excellent offensive team (27 or more ppg), after scoring 14 points or less last game, has produced a terrific 71-29 ATS since 1983, including 15-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on 49ers -5.5
The Key: The Rams have really struggled on the road, where they are 0-3 and only averaging 12.3 ppg. The haven

6* Jets -3
The Key: The Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Look for New York to slow down Cleveland's downhill running game to silence the Browns.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +1
The Key: The Ravens are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, winning outright by 4.6 points on average in these games. Baltimore already has big road wins against the Jets and Steelers - teams I strongly believe are better than Atlanta. Take the Ravens.

7* AFC North Game of the Month on Steelers -6
The Key: Last season's 2 losses to Cincy aren't sitting well with the Steelers, and I fully expect them to do something about it tonight. Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) off a road loss in November games are a ridiculous 24-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Plus, Pittsburgh has won 15 of its last 19 in Cincinnati by an average score of 28 to 17. QB Ben Roethlisberger is 6-1 in his career at Cincy, and he'll lead the Steelers to a win and cover tonight.

6* AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -5
The Key: The Ravens are 7-1 coming off a bye since 2002. They are 2-0 off byes under coach Harbaugh with those wins coming by 20.5 points on average. Expect a well-prepared Baltimore squad to take care of business on its home field today.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Falcons -8.5
The Key: Off a bye week, and with sole possession of the NFC South lead hanging in the balance, I fully expect the Falcons to lay the wood. Tampa Bay is giving up 5.2 yards per carry on the season, which means huge days for Michael Turner and Jason Snelling. Because of this, I just don't see the Tampa defense being able to get off the field. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Take Atlanta.

6* Public Opinion Game of the Week on Jets -4
The Key: The Jets may have laid an egg last week, but there's no doubt in my mind that they are one of the very best teams, if not the best, in the NFL. Last week's performance will only motivate them more as they go up against an inferior Detroit squad. The Jets are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Take New York.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans +6
The Key: The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. I'm taking the points in a game that should go right down to the wire.

6* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Saints +1
The Key: The Saints are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus the AFC, winning them by an average of 11.2 points. Pittsburgh was lucky to win at Miami last week, and the suspect Steeler pass defense doesn't match up well with the Saints' strong aerial attack here. Expect the Saints to pull this one out behind a big bounce back game from Brees. Take New Orleans tonight.

6* Cardinals -3
The Key: Under coach Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games when facing poor defensive teams giving up 5.65 or more yards per play. Arizona is defeating the squads by an average of 12.5 points. This trend should ring true again here.

7* NFL Public Massacre Game of the Year on Chargers -3.5
The Key: The Chargers have won 7 in a row over Tennessee, including a 42-17 beatdown at Tennessee last year. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points. While the Titans have the better record, San Diego is the better team. That will show today. Lay the points.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Cowboys -3
The Key: Dallas has one of the best offenses and defenses in the entire league, but it only has 1 win to show for it due to penalties and turnovers. In what is an absolute must-win game, I expect Dallas to be extremely focused tonight. That means very few mistakes. The last time the Giants faced an offense as good as this one on the road, they were clobbered 38-14 at Indy. Dallas is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home contests after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, bouncing back to win in this situation by an average of 10.3 points. Take the Cowboys.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year (NBC) on Packers -2.5
The Key: Minnesota has lost 6 straight road games, and it is 1-5 ATS in those contests. The Vikings are also just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less. Favre played some of the best football of his life in 2 wins against Green Bay last season, but he isn't playing at the same level this year. The Packers will go after Favre, and I'm confident he won't be good enough this time around. Take the Packers at home.

6* Chargers -2.5
The Key: With a 2-0 start at home this season, the Chargers are now 28-6 in their last 34 home games. San Diego just doesn't lose at home. It has more overall talent than New England on both sides of the football, especially on defense. The Patriots have one the worst defenses in the league, and they will have no answer for Philip Rivers and San Diego's No. 1 ranked offense. A focused San Diego team cleans up the mistakes and takes care of business today.

6* Cardinals +6
The Key: Letdown spot for Seattle after an upset win over Chicago. Plus, a well-coaches Arizona team will be very prepared following a bye week. The Seahawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. The Cardinals are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Take the points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Jaguars +3
The Key: I'll gladly grab the Jaguars at home tonight considering they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3.0 or less. Also, the Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Take the points.

7* 2010 NFL Game of the Year on 49ers -6
The Key: The Niners get the call as my NFL GOTY due to strong line analysis, situational and motivational factors. Really believe odds makers are tipping their hand with this line. Making the 0-5 49ers this large of a favorite guarantees money coming in on Oakland, which is exactly what the books are looking for. You can argue that San Francisco's entire season rests on this game. Because the Niners play in such a weak division, they aren't out of the playoff hunt yet, so they will be laying it all on the line here. Plus, they couldn't catch the Raiders in a better spot. Oakland is playing without its starting QB, and off an emotionally and physically draining win over the Chargers. That win ended a 13-game losing streak to San Diego. I just can't see Oakland being able to bring the same level of energy and passing against a winless team. Since Cable has been with the Raiders, they are 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, losing in this spot by an average of 18.3 points. They are also 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record, losing to these teams by an average of 18.4 points. Lay the points with the 49ers as they dominate Oakland today. Good Luck.

6* Early Blowout on Texans -4
The Key: Houston comes ready to play after laying a huge egg at home against New York (Giants) last week. KC is just 10-22 ATS in its last 32 road games versus good offensive teams averaging 5.65 or more yards/play, losing to these teams by an average of 11.4 points. Without a trusted passing game to take advantage of the Houston secondary, the Chiefs won't have any answers today.

6* NFL Top Dog on Seahawks +7
The Key: Off a bye week, Seattle is showing excellent value at this price, especially considering both of Chicago's home wins have come by 5 or less points. After a week out of commission, I don't expect Cutler to be as sharp. Plus, Chicago won't find as much running room against the NFL's second-best run-stuffing unit. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Vikings +5
The Key: The addition of Randy Moss gives Brett Favre and the Vikings just what they've been missing - a deep threat to keep opposing defenses honest. Plus, Minnesota has had a bye week to prepare for this game, and that gives a big advantage to its defense, which is one of the best in the NFL. Jets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, and I'll fade them in this role here.

6* Packers -2.5
The Key: The Redskins are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games, including 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.0 points or less. Based on what Washington has shown me so far (or not shown me I should say), I have to lay the points with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Ravens -7
The Key: The Ravens blew Denver out by 23 points at home last season. That Denver team was 6-0 and was playing with big time performers Brandon Marshall and Elvis Dumervil. This Denver team isn't as good, and it will struggle against the NFL's best pass defense today. Plus, I believe this year's Ravens are better with the addition of Anquan Boldin. Baltimore has won all 4 home games in this series by an average of 18 points, and I'm expecting another lopsided win today.

6* Lions -3
The Key: Strong system in our favor here. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3, St. Louis in this case, after holding its opponent to 6 or fewer points in its last game, facing an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 or less points, are an awesome 25-4 ATS since 1983. Lay the points with Detroit.

6* Sunday Night Showcase (NBC) on Giants -3
The Key: The Bears are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Playing on a short week, expect the Bears to struggle in New York tonight.

7* NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Redskins +6
The Key: Look for McNabb to make a splash in his return to Philly Sunday afternoon. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia, 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Take Washington.

6* Texans -3
The Key: Look for the Texans to bounce back strong following a poor showing against Dallas last week. The Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss and the Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Take the Texans.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Packers -3
The Key: The Packers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Chicago. In fact, dating back to 1992, the Packers are 25-11 SU & 22-13-1 ATS, including 14-4 SU & 13-5 ATS in Chicago. The Bears are an improved football team, but I don't like the way their secondary matches up against Green Bay's strong receiving unit. Look for Aaron Rodgers to have a big game while leading the Packers to another win and cover in this series.

6* Sunday NFL Early Blowout on Ravens -10
The Key: Following last week's ugly, ugly performance, expect one of the best teams in the AFC to lay the wood against one of the worst. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since the beginning of the 2008 season, winning these games by an average score of 32.3 to 7.3.

6* NFL Upset Game of the Week on Cowboys +3
The Key: The media has embellished how "bad" the Cowboys have looked. The offense has been able to move the football, it just hasn't been able to avoid shooting itself in the foot. After an 0-2 start, there's no doubt Dallas will be hungry and motivated here. And it should be focused enough to clean up its play. Considering the Houston defense has allowed over 420 yards in each of its first two games, I like a talented Dallas offense to light up the scoreboard in an upset win.

7* NFL Vegas Line Mistake Game of the Year on Steelers -2
The Key: Feel oddsmakers are giving Tampa Bay too much credit for their 2-0 start and not giving the Pittsburgh defense enough credit with this line, especially when you consider that the Buccaneers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Take Pittsburgh.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers +6
The Key: The 49ers are 5-0-3 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 13-4-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. The 49ers will be out for blood after a poor Week 1 performance, and I won't hesitate to take the points as they have an excellent chance to win this one outright.

6* Texans -3
The Key: Washington is a lousy 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games. I'm laying the points with the more explosive offensive team.

6* Chargers -7
The Key: San Diego is a dominant 14-3 ATS in its last 17 against AFC South division opponents, winning by an average score of 27.6 to 17.9 in these games. Lay the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Broncos -3
The Key: Seattle is 0-7 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons and 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games following a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival. Bet the Broncos!

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers -4
The Key: Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, team that won 25% or less of its game last season playing a team that had a winning record last year, is 17-3 ATS the last 10 seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 5. Take San Diego.

6* Ravens +1.5
The Key: Ravens have won 5 straight in this series and I love their chances of making it 6 straight against a Jets team that is only 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games in the first two weeks of the season. Take Baltimore.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on 49ers -3
The Key: Seattle is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games as an underdog, losing these contests by 18.1 points on average. SF is the cream of the crop in the NFC West this season. Lay the points!

6* Rams +4
The Key: The Cardinals are a completely different team without future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, and I expect them to have a down year in his absence. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the Rams.

6* Dolphins -3
The Key: Miami is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Lay the number.

7* Super Bowl XLIV *HEAVY HITTER* on Saints +5
Let's get right to the point. The Colts have not faced a team as balanced offensively as the Saints. The Saints have proven throughout the season that they can win games through the air and on the ground. The Colts will have to be much more concerned with Drew Brees and New Orleans' aerial attack because of its quick strike ability, but all that does is delay the inevitable. The Colts are on a 3-12 ATS slide when playing away from home against good rushing teams averaging 130 or more rushing yards per game, in the second half of the season, losing to these teams by an average of 11.1 points. The Colts have had success against teams that rely heavily on their defense, but they have struggled against teams that can match them offensively. Just look at their games with the Patriots and the Texans. Take the Saints as they have an excellent opportunity to win this game straight up.

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Saints -3
What stands out to me is how bad Minnesota's secondary has been in losing its last 3 road games straight up and against the spread to Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago. I just don't think Minnesota can get enough heat on Drew Brees to keep its secondary from being very vulnerable today. To me this says it all: the Saints are 6-0 ATS versus very good offensive teams scoring 27 or more points per game since Sean Payton has taken over, winning these contests by an average of 16.2 points. Lay the points.

7* AFC Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* of the Year on Jets +8
I strongly feel that the Jets aren't getting enough respect with this line. This is a team that is as confident as any in football right now, and they should be. After all, the Jets boast the NFL's No. 1 ranked defense and its No. 1 ranked rushing attacks. I'll back a team catching this many points who can say those 2 things any day of the week. The key things to note here are that the Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Take the points.

7* NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Saints -7
This is a very tough spot for Arizona who will be asked to take on the NFL's highest scoring team on their home turf with just 5 days to rest and prepare following an extremely emotionally and physically taxing wild card game with Green Bay. I don't think the defending NFC champs will be up to the challenge. Look for the Saints to improve to 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Packers -1.5
Let's just say Green Bay has dominated the NFC West, going 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons and winning by an average score of 35.6 to 15.6. The Packers finished 7-1 in the second half of the season to create great momentum here, and I believe last week's win over the Cards provides them with another edge, just as it did for the Jets and Cowboys yesterday. Green Bay is the better team on paper on both sides of the football and I believe that translates to the field today. Take the Packers.

6* Eagles/Boys Saturday Night Showcase on Eagles +4
Have to take the points here as I see this one being decided by a field goal either way. Philly will be extremely motivated having lost to Dallas twice already and it bodes well for us that plays on road teams revenging a loss against an opponent by 14 or more points, if that team has a winning record on the season, are a stunning 27-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Showcase on Bengals +10
Cincy is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, including 7-1 ATS this season. Marvin Lewis is giving every indication that he will not have his team lay down in this game so we'll take the points.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Cowboys -3
Last year, the Eagles destroyed Dallas 44-6 in Week 17 to keep the Cowboys out of the playoffs. Dallas won in Philadelphia earlier this season to avenge that loss, but this Cowboys team is far from satisfied as it looks to win the division title on its home field today. Plays against road teams (Philly) after a home game where both it and its opponent scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season, are 43-18 ATS since 1983. Lay the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Bears +9
The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Chicago. Plus, plays on any team (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less last game, are 19-4 ATS the last 5 seasons and 14-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, Chicago is 12-3 ATS in home games revenging a loss against an opponent of 14 or more points. Take the points.

7* Sunday Night Showcase (NBC) on Redskins +7.5
After getting completely embarrassed on their home field on national TV Monday night, expect the Redskins to bounce back strong to earn their 6th cover in their last 7 games. The Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the underdog is an impressive 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Plus, the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Showcase (ESPN) on Giants -1
The Skins are playing their best football of the season, and they have covered the spread in 5 straight games as a result. But they are 0-4 against the NFC East this season and I can't see them getting the job done here against a Giants team that is not out of the playoff hunt yet. The G-Men have had Washington's number, winning 3 in a row SU & ATS and 6 of the last 7 SU & ATS. Also, the Giants are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. The Giants are on a 6-1 ATS run in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less while the Redskins are 0-4-4 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less. NY clearly has more to play for at this point in the season so we'll take the G-Men here.

6* Sunday Night Showcase (NBC) on Panthers +9
Can't refuse the Panthers here when you consider they are on a 7-0 ATS run in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season, a 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points, and a 6-0 ATS run in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Steelers -1
It's been a tough stretch for the defending Super Bowl champs but they will not be lacking any motivation at home today off an embarrassing loss to the Browns and having an extra couple days to prepare provides them with another edge over Green Bay today. The Steelers are on a 9-3 ATS run versus teams with winning records, but here's the clincher: the Steelers are on a 13-1 ATS roll at home following an upset loss to a division rival, responding to win in these spots by 10.5 points on average. Take Pittsburgh!

6* NFL Saturday Night Showcase on Cowboys +9
Odds makers are severely overvaluing a Saints team here that is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games. The Boys need a win tonight in the worst possible way and I believe they will have an opportunity against a Saints defense that is susceptible to the run. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Look for this trend to continue tonight.

7* Thursday Night NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Jaguars +3
The Jaguars always get up for the Colts and the evidence is 3 of the last 4 meetings being decided by 3 points or less with the Jags winning one of those. In fact, 2 of the last 3 meetings have been decided by 2 points or less. At this point with home field already wrapped up, Indy clearly shifts its focus toward doing what it needs to do to get ready for the playoffs, where it has struggled in recent years since winning the Super Bowl. The Jags have much more to play for tonight as they must win out in order to control their own destiny. Jacksonville has proven to be a tough place to win as the Jags are 5-2 at home this season. Plus, the Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog of 3.0 points or less. Look for Jacksonville to come through at home in this must-win spot tonight. Take the points.

7* 2009 NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Year (ESPN) on Cardinals -3
Arizona has been a force on the road all season at 5-1. In fact, it's only road loss came to Tennessee when Kurt Warner didn't play and the Titans still needed a late game-winning drive to win. The Cards are coming off a huge win over Minnesota, but they will avoid any letdowns here as they look to avenge an earlier season defeat to the 49ers. Here's the key: plays on favorites (ARIZONA) revenging a loss off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 29-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. The system is 14-4 the last 5 seasons and 6-1 the last 3. The favorite has been favored by an average of 4.8 points in these games and is winning by an average of 8.8. Bet the Cards as our 2009 NFL GOTY!

6* Sunday Night Football Bailout on Giants +1
The Giants were crushed by Philly in the season's first meeting, but I like them to have their revenge here. The Giants are 17-8 ATS revenging a loss under coach Coughlin and I expect this trend to continue. Plus, NY has been absolute money in the bank as a dog. The Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less while the Eagles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.0 points or less. Plus, the underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Take the G-Men.

7* Sunday NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Cowboys -3
The public is all over San Diego here, but Dallas needs this game more and I like it to win for a 6th straight time at home this afternoon. We can't ignore the fact that Dallas is on a 31-15 ATS run in home games off a road loss, winning in these spots by an average score of 22.5 to 14.9. Dallas runs the football better and has the better defense. It's going to take one big play after another for San Diego to get the job done and I don't see it happening. Much has been made of Dallas' late season woes and I expect the Cowboys to silence the doubters with a big home win here.

7* Thursday Night NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Steelers -10
This is an absolute must-win game for the Pittsburgh Steelers to stay in the AFC playoff picture and after a terrible loss at home to Oakland, I expect them to respond in a big way against a team they have defeated 12 straight times. Cleveland's defense has been atrocious at home this season and the offense has had all kinds of trouble finding the end zone against solid defenses so it comes as no surprise that the Browns are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. In those 12 straight wins over Cleveland, the Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS. I expect the domination to continue tonight. Lay the points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Packers -3
Green Bay has a nice advantage here in that it has had 3 extra days to rest and prepare having not played since Thanksgiving Thursday. The Packers boast the NFL's No. 1 ranked defense and an offense averaging 27 ppg. I know this is a big Monday night game, but I think it will be hard for the Ravens to get up for this one after an emotionally and physically draining win against Pittsburgh last week. A win here goes a long ways toward securing a wild card spot for Green Bay, and with 2 road games on deck, I expect Green Bay to take care of business here. The Ravens are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 (line at -3.5 at other books). Also, Green Bay is on an 11-1 ATS run in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more ppg on the season in the second half of the season, winning in these spots by an average score of 25.1 to 14.9. Take the Packers.

7* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Vikings -3
Minnesota is the better team on both sides of the football and I don't think it will be lacking any motivation against the defending NFC champs. Arizona is just 2-3 at home this season as its defense has let it down, allowing over 25 ppg on its home turf. Warner is probable for tonight's game, but afterwards he is going to wish he hadn't played as the Minnesota pass rush will be in his face all game long. The Cards will have to pick their poison as to whether they would rather be beaten through the air with Favre or on the ground with Peterson. Either way, they will have no answers. The Vikings have taken seven of the L8 head-to-head matchups in this series and are 6-2 ATS in that span. They are 4-1 SU & ATS in road games in

6* Cowboys -1
Look for Dallas to avenge an earlier season loss against the struggling Giants, who have lost 6 in a row ATS. The Giants have been hit hard by in the injury bug and are lacking the toughness that made them a title contender the past couple seasons. Here's the clincher: Dallas is 0-6 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record, losing in these games by over 11 points on average. Take Dallas.

6* Seahawks +1.5
Can't trust the 49ers laying anything on the road as they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Seattle is a good home team and I look for it to avenge an earlier season loss here.

7* Thursday NFL Game of the Year on Jets -3
The Jets had 6 turnovers in the first meeting with the Bills this season and it still took overtime for the Bills to win. The stupid thing was that Rex Ryan kept calling plays to allow Mark Sanchez to throw those interceptions when the Jets racked up over 300 yards rushing on the ground. I don't see a Bills team allowing nearly 5 yards per carry on the season stopping New York's strong rushing attack tonight in this revenge game. Plus, the Jets have even more motivation as they are still in the playoff hunt. First off, plays on favorites (NY JETS) when playing on a Thursday are 27-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less. Take the Jets.

6* Sunday Night Showcase (NBC) on Steelers +9.5
I know Big Ben is out, but the Steelers still have a defense capable of keeping this one tight, especially against a Baltimore offense that is struggling. Plays on road underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) off a road loss are 84-44 ATS the last 5 seasons. Expect Pittsburgh to keep this one tight in an ugly game.

6* Bears +11
5 of the last 6 games in this rivalry have been decided by 10 points or less. Chicago is desperate for a win to stay in playoff conversations. I don't think the Bears will ultimately get it done today, but I do think they keep this one within 3-7 point. The Bears are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points while the Vikes are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on 49ers -3
The 49ers defense stops the run better than Jacksonville's and that gives the big edge to the Niners in this one. Jacksonville relies on its running game, but the 49ers are allowing just 95 yards rushing on 3.5 yards/carry this season. The Jags are giving up 148 yards rushing on 4.3 yards/carry on the road this season and I look for San Francisco to be able to control the clock and dominate in this one. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less and the 49ers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.0 or less. Plus, the 49ers are 9-3-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall while the Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Lay the number.

7* Thanksgiving Day *HEAVY HITTER* (CBS) on Cowboys -13.5
What happened to the Raiders after they upset the Eagles earlier this season? They were crushed 38-0 by the Jets the following week and that game was in Oakland. Now they must play at Dallas on a short week against a Cowboys team that just received a wake up call against the Redskins. Dallas has won the last 3 Thanksgiving Day games by 25, 31, and 28 points and I expect it to roll again here. Consider that plays on favorites when playing on a Thursday are 25-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, Coach Phillips is 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses allowing 130 or more rushing yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992, winning in these spots by an average score of 30.7 to 14.0. Can't see Oakland stopping Dallas' running game and that should open up some big plays in the passing game via play action. Lay the points.

7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Titans +4
I'll take the red hot Titans catching better than a field goal in this revenge spot tonight. The Titans are 3-0 SU & ATS since Vince Young took over and I expect him to play his best game yet in his hometown tonight. Young isn't turning the ball over and he's making plays when the initial play call breaks down, which is something Collins wasn't able to do. The Titans are running the ball at will with Chris Johnson, who is averaging an incredible 6.4 yards per tote. He hit Houston up for nearly 300 yards from scrimmage in the first meeting but the Titans fell short because the Texans were able to take advantage of a banged up defense. That defense is now as healthy as it has been all season and the Texans are minus a weapon with Owen Daniels, who caught a TD pass in the first meeting, on the IR. The Titans are a dangerous team right now because they have the luxury of playing pressure-free football after getting off to such a poor start. The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and the Underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry. Take the points.

7* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* of the Year (NBC) on Eagles -3
The Bears have lost 4 of 5 with all 4 of those losses coming by 4 or more points. The only win during this stretch has come against the lowly Browns. Offensively, Chicago is brutal. It gets nothing in the running game, which allows teams to key on the pass. As a result, it's been a nightmare season for Jay Cutler. Defensively, Chicago is not getting a consistent pass rush, which puts a below average secondary in a world of hurt. Philly is the better team on both sides of the football and enters this game highly motivated off back-to-back losses. Plus, it will be out for revenge after falling to the Bears last season. Plays against home underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 ppg) against a good offensive team (23-27 ppg) - are 26-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Eagles.

6* NFL Underdog of the Week on Raiders +10
Don't expect the Bengals to show up in Oakland Sunday after three straight emotional upset wins. Oakland is showing signs of improvement. The Raiders have either won or lost by 8 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games. This is just too many points for the Bengals to be laying when you consider that its offense has scored 18 or fewer it 4 of its last 5 games and the Raiders defense is better than it gets credit for. The Bengals have been awful in the chalk at just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10 points. Take the points.

6* Thursday Night NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Dolphins +3.5
The Dolphins may be without Ronnie Brown, but the Panthers are likely to be without Jonathan Stewart so I feel those injuries pretty much cancel each other out. The most significant injury tonight is the one to stud tackle Jordan Gross. The Panthers will really miss him in the running game. With his absence, Miami has the better line on both sides of the football. The teams that wins the battle of the trenches, usually wins the game and I can't see the Dolphins losing that battle here. The rank 7th in the NFL against the run, allowing only 98 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry, and they average 156 yards on 4.6 yards per carry on offense. While the Panthers have run the football pretty well this season, they have not defended the run well, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Lastly, plays against favorites after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games with a losing record, are 24-3 ATS the last 5 years. We'll take the points tonight.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Browns +11.5
Great spot for the Browns here playing at home off a bye week catching big points in a revenge spot. Baltimore is clearly not the same team it was a season ago, especially on the road where it has dropped 3 in a row. In fact, the Ravens are on a 6-16 ATS slide after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games and on a 2-9 ATS skid in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The Ravens are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Cleveland and the home teams is on a strong 8-3 ATS run. Lastly, plays on Underdogs of 10.5 or more points, a teams getting outgained by 100 or more yards/game, after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games, are 26-8 ATS since 1983. Take the points.

6* NFL Underdog of the Week on Panthers +2.5
Carolina is on a 20-8 ATS run when revenging a same season loss and I fully expect this strong trend to continue at home against a Falcons team that is only 1-3 on the road this season.

7* NFL Blowout of the Year on NY Jets -6.5
I like the Jets to dominate this game at home coming off a bye week. Jacksonville is on a 0-18 ATS slide in road games when it allows 150 or more rushing yards and it is up against a Jets team that is rushing for 178 yards per game on the ground. Jacksonville will have no answer for New York ground attack today and I don't expect a Jags offense that is only averaging 14 ppg on the road to get much of anything here, especially since Rex Ryan has had an extra week to game plan. Lay the points!

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Bears +3
The 49ers are experiencing problems on both sides of the football right now and have lost 4 in a row as a result. They have been especially torched through the air in recent weeks, giving up big plays and big yardage to Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, and Peyton Manning. After getting absolutely blown off their home field Sunday, I expect the Bears to bounce back strong here behind a big game from Jay Cutler. Defensively, we can expect much better from the Bears as well as San Francisco does not have a high-powered offensive attack like Cincy or Arizona that has hurt them in recent weeks. The 49ers are just 10-21-2 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite. Chicago is 6-0 ATS after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win in these spots by an average score of 25.0 to 16.3. Take the points.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Steelers -2.5
Denver's defense is the main reason why it is off to such a hot start. Baltimore showed us last week that the Broncos are very human if you take care of the football and if your defense can play Denver's to a standstill. Pittsburgh possesses one of the best defenses in football and it will be fresh and overly prepared tonight coming off a bye week. Can't see Denver getting much of anything going offensively here as it faces its stiffest defensive challenge of the season. While Denver's defense is not going to roll over at any point, I just can't see the unit keeping Big Ben Roethlisberger from doing what he has done to everyone this season. Big Ben is completing over 70% of his passes this season and that does not bode well for Denver considering that it is on a 1-11 ATS slide against teams completing 64% or more of their passes over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by 17.6 points on average. It also can't be overlooked that Pittsburgh is on a 29-11 ATS run against top-level teams (Win Pct. > 75%). The defending Super Bowl champs have proven that they can win the big games and this is a big one. Big edge to Pittsburgh!

7* NFL Favorite of the Year on Giants -4
The Giants aren

6* Sunday NFL Underdog Shocker on Panthers +13.5
Everyone is just penciling the Saints into the Super Bowl, but to borrow a line from Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. While I won't be surprised if the Saints do make a Super Bowl appearance, I also won't be surprised if they go down today. Carolina has a running game capable of controlling the ball all afternoon, keeping the New Orleans offense off the field. And Carolina is 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in its L8 trips to Bourbon Street. Carolina has a chance to pull off shocker here today, but even if they don't, I like them to keep this one within the number.

6* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Saints -11.5
New Orleans has won every game by at least 12 points this season and after getting a real scare against the Dolphins last week, expect the Saints to enter their first divisional contest even more focused. New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 ATS in all games this season and 8-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road since the beginning of last season (13.6-point average margin of victory). Lastly, the Saints are an impressive 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite. Lay the number.

6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Panthers +10.5
The books are spotting the Panthers way too many points here. They went down to Buffalo last week, but when you look closer at that game the Panthers dominated the action, only to be had by turnovers. Expect Carolina to take much better care of the football today, as teams normally due following a week in which they coughed it up a lot, and expect them to cover this number easily as a result. Plus, this is a revenge spot for the Panthers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by Arizona last season and I can't see Arizona getting up for this one the same way they did for the Giants last week. Zona is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Take the points.

5* Texans -3
Houston finally found a way to win consecutive games this season and I like that to serve as a confident booster here. Plain and simple, the Bills don't have an explosive enough offense to stick with the Texans today.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Ravens -3
The Ravens could not be hungrier for a win after 3 straight losses, and with a bye week to prepare for this one, I look for them to get the job done against a Broncos team with a big target on its back. Denver is a dismal 1-10 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion % of 64 or better over the last 3 seasons and is 9-2 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Both of these situations are producing double digit winners on average. Lay the points.

5* Jets -3
Look for the Jets to avenge an earlier season loss to the Phins at home today as they do a much better job against the Wildcat to slow down the Miami attack.

5* Rams +4
The Lions are 1-22 in their last 23 games and have not shown enough to be laying more than a field goal here. St. Louis looks at this game as its chance to avoid 0-16 so I'll take the points as the Rams come into Detroit hungry and focused.

6* NFL Revenge Game of the Week (ESPN) on Redskins +9
I love the Redskins in the home underdog role tonight when you consider that the Skins went 2-0 SU and ATS as a dog against Philly last season and are 3-1 SU and ATS the past 2 seasons. Plus, the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this rivalry and the Eagles are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings overall in this series and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Washington. Washington's defense has been dominant, allowing only 16 ppg and 287 ypg. Those numbers are down to 11.3 ppg and 247 ypg when the Skins are at home. It has been Washington's offense that has been holding it back, but I expect that offense to surprise tonight with Sherman Lewis calling the plays. With a new coordinator on board, likely to pull out all the stops to make sure that he doesn't get quickly caught up in Jim Zorn's negative publicity, the Eagles won't have a very good idea of what to expect tonight. Take the generous amount of points here.