Cappers Sports Picks

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Fresno State -2

The Key: This is a very generous price to get Fresno State as only 2-point home favorites over Evansville today.  The Bulldogs are 8-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road to Oregon, Arizona and Cal Poly.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 at home this season, beating teams by 11.2 points per game.  Evansville is 9-2 overall but just 3-2 on the road this year.  It lost to Providence by 10 on a neutral court and Arkansas by 13 on the road.  The Purple Aces have played an easier schedule than the Bulldogs this year.  Fresno State is 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 years.  Take Fresno State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5

The Key: The Timberwolves had lost eight of nine games before finally snapping out of it with a 99-95 home win over the Kings on Friday.  This stretch has them undervalued right now as they should not be underdogs to the Brooklyn Nets.  But all 8 of those losses came by 12 points or less, including 7 by 8 points or fewer.  They were competitive in every game, but just had some bad fortune in close games.  The Nets are 7-19 on the season and have lost four straight coming in.  They have all kinds of injury issues right now as Shane Larkin, Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Sergey Karasev are all out.  The Timberwolves have played their best ball on the road this season as they are 6-6 SU & 9-3 ATS in road games.  They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall.  The Timberwolves are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Nets.  Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -1

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a draining 8-point loss at San Antonio last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  The Houston Rockets had yesterday off following a 107-87 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers Thursday.  The Rockets are playing much better now as they've won 8 of their last 12 games overall and were competitive in all four of their losses.  The Rockets have won four straight meetings with the Clippers heading in, including home wins by 13 and 21 points.  The Rockets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games off a road win.  Take Houston.

6* NCAAB In-State Rivalry Game of the Week on Georgia +2

The Key: The Georgia Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 9 home meetings with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in this rivalry, where home-court advantage has clearly been huge for both teams.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Georgia is just 4-3 this year, but its three losses have come by 2, 2 and 7 points.  The Bulldogs are expected to get their best player back today in Kenny Gaines, who missed last game with a knee injury.  Getting ample time off has helped him recover as the Bulldogs last played on December 8th.  Georgia Tech hasn't had nearly as much time to prepare as it last played on December 15th in a home win over VCU.  That was the one quality win that the Yellow Jackets have this season as they've played an easy schedule and have been favored in 8 of their 9 games.  In their only game as a dog, they lost by 17 to Villanova.  Georgia Tech is 13-30 ATS in its last 43 road games after having won 4 of its last 5 games.  The Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Georgia.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have lost four straight coming in and desperately need a win.  But two of those losses came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they get to a cupcake in Denver.  The Nuggets have played better of late, winning five of their last six, but four of those wins have come against Minnesota (twice), Philadelphia and Houston.  Four of them have also come by 6 points or less, so they've been fortunate in close games.  The Jazz have won each of their last two meetings with the Nuggets in blowout fashion with a 12-point road win this season and a 14-point home win in their final meeting last year.  Utah is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Nuggets are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest.  The Jazz are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Utah.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington State -10

The Key: Washington State should be a heavier home favorite tonight against Texas State.  The Cougars are 6-2 this season with a 9-point loss to Gonzaga and a 4-point road loss to Idaho.  All six of Washington State's wins have come by 12 points or more, and I believe we'll be able to add a 7th to that category tonight.  Texas State is 5-2 with its two losses coming to Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 8 and UTEP by 15.  Its five wins have come against Texas-Tyler, McNeese State, UTSA, UTRGV and Prairie View A&M.  If that's not a laughable schedule than I don't know what is.  UTEP is a common opponent of these teams.  Texas State lost 62-77 at UTEP and shot 35.8% while allowing 54.2% shooting.  Well, Washington State beat UTEP 84-68 at home and shot 55.3% while allowing only 36.5% shooting.  The Cougars are 6-1 at home this year, winning by 12.9 points per game.  The Cougars are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  Texas State is 1-12 ATS versus teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Washington State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost 8 of their last 9 games coming in an are in desperate need of a victory.  But it's not like they haven't been competitive as they could have won all nine of those games.  The eight losses have come by 8, 3, 6, 4, 3, 7, 12 and 5 points, so they have been in every game, but they just haven't been able to finish the deal.  The Kings are road favorites here because they come in having won 3 straight.  HOwever, all three wins came at home over Utah, New York and Houston.  The Kings are a great home team, but they are a terrible road game.  The Kings are just 2-8 on the road this season, giving up 112.5 points per game away from home.  The Kings are 21-47-2 ATS in their last 70 games playing on 2 days rest.  Sacramento is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS win.  Take Minnesota.

6* Rockets/Lakers TNT *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +6

The Key: After a brutal 8-game road trip in which the Lakers played 8 games in 12 days, they finally had some rest before returning home to face the Bucks two nights ago.  They had two days off prior to that game, and then promptly put together their best performance of the season in a 113-95 home win as 3.5-point underdogs.  They had seven different players score in double-digits and had 26 assists on their 41 made field goals.  Look for them to build off of that win and play well tonight as 6-point home dogs against the Rockets.  The Lakers want revenge from an ugly loss at Houston on December 12 less than a week ago.  That was the 8th game on that 8-game road trip, and they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in San Antonio the previous night.  They had nothing left in the tank, but now they are rejuvenated and will put forth a much better effort tonight.  The Lakers are only getting outscored by 2.7 points per game at home this year, while the Rockets are getting outscored by 4.0 points per game on the road.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bucks/Clippers Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Milwaukee +11

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back tonight.  However, they won't have to travel at all as they will be playing inside the Staples Center again.  After being 4-point favorites over the Lakers yesterday, now they're 11-point underdogs to the Clippers tonight, which is a massive 15-point adjustment.  As a result, I believe there is some nice value here with the Bucks catching double-digits.  I also like the fact that the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 0 days rest.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +13

The Key: Mississippi State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  I fully expect this team to make some noise in the SEC this season behind first-year head coach Ben Howland and his four returning starters.  This is a talented group that just needed some leadership, and Howland provides that since he took UCLA to three straight Final Fours.  The Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they are 5-1 ATS in their six lines games this year.  They are especially undervalued here because they are coming off an upset loss to Missouri-KC, which will have them re-focused and grounded as they take on this solid Florida State squad.  The Seminoles are 26-59 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Take Mississippi State.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Key: The Houston Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after their draining 108-114 road loss to the Denver Nuggets last night.  This is a good spot to fade them and back the Sacramento Kings, who have had four days off in between games having last played on December 10th.  The Kings are a respectable 7-7 at home this season as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  The Rockets are giving up 107.0 points per game on 48.4% shooting en route to a 5-6 road record this year.  The Kings have already lost to the Rockets twice this year, and they've lost each of their last four meetings with the Rockets all by 7 points or less, so they will be wanting some revenge here.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.  Take Sacramento.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tennessee Tech +12.5

The Key: This is too many points for UT-Chattanooga to be playing to a quality in-state opponent in Tennessee Tech tonight.  Tech has gone 7-3 this season with its only losses all coming on the road to Air Force, New Mexico State and Arkansas.  Tech has only one loss by more than 13 points this season, so it has been competitive in basically every game but one.  Chattanooga is in a big letdown spot here after winning at Dayton three days ago.  It's also hard to trust Chattanooga to win by 12-plus points tonight considering they are without their best player.  Casey Jones is out with an ankle injury.  He led the team in scoring (14.2) and rebounding (7.0) last season, and he is leading them in both categories (12.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg) once again this season.  He played in their first eight games but had to sit out the win over Dayton.  Teams can play well without their star player for one game, but not over time.  Tech beat Chattanooga 69-67 at home last year.  Chattanooga is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. Ohio Valley foes.  Chattanooga is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win.  Take Tennessee Tech.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Magic/Nets UNDER 199

The Key: Two poor offensive teams square off tonight when the Magic meet the Nets in an Eastern Conference showdown.  The Magic rank 23rd in offensive efficiency while the Nets rank 27th.  These are two teams who also play at below-average league paces as the Nets are 16th in pace while the Magic are tied for 17th.  Each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  Orlando is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Magic are 34-13 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last 3 years.  The Nets are 14-3 UNDER off a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 years.  The UNDER is 12-1 in Magic last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *Total* Annihilator on Grizzlies/Heat UNDER 189.5

The Key: The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA.  They are 17-4 to the UNDER this season and oddsmakers just can't set their totals low enough.  They certainly haven't set this one low enough as this is a battle between two defense-first teams who play at slow paces.  Miami ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 96.4 points per 100 possessions.  While the Grizzlies have slipped defensively this year, this is still a good defensive team.  Miami ranks 25th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Memphis ranks 24th in pace at 96.9 possessions per game.  Miami is 20th in offensive efficiency while Memphis is 25th in offensive efficiency.  The Heat are 9-1 UNDER vs. teams with winning records this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8.5

The Key: Both of these teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's a much worse spot for the Warriors.  They will be playing their 7th straight road game.  No team in NBA history has ever swept a 7-game road trip.  Plus, the Warriors went to double-overtime last night against the Celtics.  They won't have anything left in the tank.  The Bucks will be energized to try and end this unbeaten streak by the Warriors.  The Bucks have held their own at home this year, posting a 7-5 record there compared to a 2-10 mark on the road.  Milwaukee is 20-8 ATS following 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.  The Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Bucks are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  The Warriors are already without Harrison Barnes and could be without Klay Thompson again tonight.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Cincinnati/Xavier Top 25 *CA$H COW* on Xavier -4

The Key: Xavier is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Sure, the Musketeers are ranked #12 in the land, but they don't get the credit that a lot of other top programs do.  They just keep going about their business, destroying the competition en route to a 9-0 start.  They are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game this year.  They have impressive road wins over Michigan (86-70), Alabama (64-45), USC (87-77) and Dayton (90-61), so they have played a tough schedule, too.  Cincinnati is 8-1 but lost to Butler at home and only beat Nebraska and Georgia Washington by a combined 9 points.  Xavier has won each of its last two meetings with Cincinnati while shooting 56.4% and 52.6% from the floor.  The domination in this series for the Musketeers continues tonight.  Xavier 7-0 ATS is as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons.  Xavier is 7-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Xavier.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are coming off a huge 97-94 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.  That win sets them up for a massive letdown spot here as they host the Milwaukee Bucks two nights later.  The Raptors shouldn't be 8-point favorites considering they are missing two starters right now in Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.  Betting against home teams off an upset win as a home underdog against an opponent off a home loss has produced a 37-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons.  Toronto is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons/76ers UNDER 192.5

The Key: The 76ers and Pistons played in some ugly defensive battles in their final two meetings last year.  THey combined for 158 and 177 points, both of which came in Philadelphia.  The 76ers are awful offensively once again this season as they are 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Pistons have also struggled on that end as they're 24th in offensive efficiency.  But the Pistons do lock it down defensively, ranking 8th in the NBA in efficiency on that end.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Pistons last 6 games, while the UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games as well.  Take the UNDER.

6* Heat/Pacers ESPN National TV Annihilator on Indiana -4.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers will be motivated to put to end a 3-game losing streak.  They lost road games against the Blazers and Jazz before coming home to lose to the unbeaten Warriors.  But the Pacers should have no problem getting back on track against a team they've owned at home.  They haven't lost at home in the regular season to the Heat since February of 2012.  The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.  Indiana is 35-13 in its last 48 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.  Indiana is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  Take Indiana.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off an embarrassing 51-point loss to the Spurs last time out.  They have had two days in between games since that ugly loss.  Look for them to come back re-energized and to show a lot of fight tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.  This will be just the 2nd time all season that the Nets have actually been favored.  They lost at home to the Lakers 98-104 as 3-point favorites in the first instance.  The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams, and four of the last five meetings overall.  The 76ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Vanderbilt -8.5

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the best teams in the country.  They have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in lined games.  Their only two losses this season came on the road to Kansas (63-70) and Baylor (67-69) by a combined 9 points.  Those are also two of the best teams in the land.  Vanderbilt's numbers are out of this world.  It is scoring 83.4 points against teams that allow 73.5 points, and allowing 60.6 points against teams that average 79.3 points.  After the loss to Kansas, Vanderbilt bounced back with a 102-52 home win over Detroit.  I look for the Commodores to bounce back from their loss to Baylor in a big way at home tonight.  Dayton is 6-1 this season, but I can't take the Flyers seriously when they lost to Xavier 61-90 two games back.  Plus, this will be their first true road game of the season in a hostile atmosphere.  The Commodores are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 33.0 points per game.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  Take this combined 19-1 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Bulls/Celtics ESPN National TV Annihilator on Boston -2.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They get after it defensively, ranking 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They are outscoring the opposition by 5.3 points per game overall and 7.9 points per game at home.  Their last four games have been mighty impressive as they've gone 4-0 ATS.  They have posted double-digit road wins over Miami (by 10), Sacramento (by 17) and New Orleans (by 18) with their only loss coming at San Antonio (by 3) as 8.5-point underdogs.  The Bulls are 6-12 ATS this season and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with winning records.  The Celtics have gone 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games following a win.  Take Boston.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Indiana Pacers +6

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are ripe for the upset tonight.  They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They nearly lost to Utah in a 3-point win and Toronto in a 3-point win.  I believe Indiana is better than both of those teams and is good enough to hand the Warriors their first defeat of the season tonight.  Indiana has won six straight home games by nearly 12 points per game on average.  The Pacers are coming in on 2 days' rest, which is important considering their are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 2 days of rest.  Take Indiana.

6* WVU/Virginia ESPN National TV Annihilator on West Virginia +5

The Key: While Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State are getting all of the national attention in the Big 12, everyone is sleeping on West Virginia.  The Mountaineers have opened 7-0 this season, and the numbers they are putting up are out of this world.  They are averaging 88.4 points against teams that allow 74.9 points, and they are allowing 57.6 points against teams that average 72.6.  So they are scoring nearly 14 points more per game than their opponents allow, and they are allowing 15 points per game less than their opponents average.  Virginia is a great team, but I think the wrong team is favored here.  The Cavaliers have been vulnerable as they lost to George Washington earlier this season, and the rest of their schedule has been pretty easy, with the exception of a 6-point win over Ohio State.  But the Buckeyes are down this season.  WVU is 6-0 ATS in road games off 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  Virginia is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams that outscore foes by 12-plus points  per game.  Take West Virginia.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are in an awful situation tonight.  This is the finale of a 6-game road trip for them.  They have lost four straight on this road trip, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  The Suns are simply running on fumes right now.  The Bulls will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, so look for them to win all of the hustle plays tonight.  The Bulls have won 11 of their last 14 meetings with the Suns.  The Suns are 3-8 on the road, while the Bulls are 7-2 at home.  Chicago is coming off a loss to Charlotte, and it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a defeat.  In fact, the Bulls haven't lost two straight games all season.  Take Chicago.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on IUPUI +21

The Key: The Purdue Boilermakers are getting a lot of love right now from the betting public due to their 8-0 start this  season.  But after back-to-back huge wins over Pitt and New Mexico, this is the definition of a letdown spot for the Boilermakers.  I don't believe they'll be able to cover this massive 21-point spread against crosstown opponent IUPUI. This is an IUPUI team that returned 4 starters from last year.  Yes, it is just 3-6 this season, but it has played a brutal schedule with seven road games against two home games.  All six of its losses have come on the road, but five of those losses came by 10 points or less.  It also beat Indiana State 72-70 as 8-point road dogs, and only lost to Marquette 71-75 as 13.5-point road dogs.  I've seen enough from this team to know that it can stay within 21 points of Purdue tonight.  It also helps that 2015 Big Ten Player of the Year Raphael Davis will likely miss his 4th straight game for the Boilermakers tonight.  IUPUI is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 years.  IUPUI is 10-1 ATS in road games off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past 2 seasons.  Take IUPUI.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are coming off a hard-fought 112-109 win at Toronto last night.  Now they have to come back a day later and are being asked to lay double-digit points to the Brooklyn Nets, who had yesterday off.  I see no way the Warriors find a way to win by double-digits today.  The Nets are 4-0 in their last four home games overall.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, and the Nets took the Warriors to overtime on the road in their first meeting this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of the last 11 meetings in this series.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks +2

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks both played last night.  The Knicks won their second straight game 108-91 over the Nets, while the Bucks lost on the road 95-102 to the Pistons.  The Bucks have a shorter flight back to Milwaukee and will be the more motivated team heading into this game considering they are coming off consecutive losses.  They really need a win to turn their season around, and I look for them to get it here.  Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS following two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss to an opponent against an opponent off a road loss to a division foe are 27-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Ohio State -15

The Key: The Ohio State Buckeyes are shockingly off to just a 2-4 start this season.  After opening with 22-point and 27-points wins over Mount St. Mary's and Grambling, they have lost four in a row coming in.  But all four losses came to quality teams in UT Arlington, LA Tech, Memphis and Virginia.  All four losses also came by 8 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Memphis and a 6-point loss to Virginia, so they are not broken.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated to get back in the win column today.  Now they get to face an awful team in Virginia Military.  VMI is 0-3 on the road this season, losing to Penn State by 12, VA Tech by 24 and Campbell by 1.  Those losses to Penn State and VA Tech make me think that Ohio State won't have a problem covering this 15-point spread because it is the best team that VMI will have faced this season.  The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Ohio State.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Missouri -3.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is getting way too much respect from the books tonight due to its 7-0 start.  It couldn't have played an easier schedule as it has played six games at home against CS-Northridge, South Dakota, Wright State, Eureka, Indiana-Northwest and Chicago State.  It has only played one road game, which came at Idaho in a 7-point win.  Now the Huskies will face their toughest test of the season on the road against a team from the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.  Missouri is 3-3, but its three losses have come to Xavier, Kansas State and Northwestern all on the road.  The Tigers hung with both Xavier and Northwestern, which are two very good teams this year.  Missouri is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game.  It is shooting 49.4% at home and allowing just 38.3% at home.  The Tigers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  Take Missouri.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -2.5

The Key: The New York Knicks are 9-10 this season and things are looking up in the Big Apple for the first time in a long time.  Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets are 5-13 this season and clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA.  Last year, the Nets beat the Knicks 4-0 in the season series, but that was an awful Knicks team.  Plus, the last three games were all decided by 5 points or less.  The Knicks will want revenge from that season sweep.  The Nets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point dogs.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, but most of those came as big underdogs.  This line has now been over-adjusted because the Nets have actually won two straight games for the first time this season coming in.  But that works against them considering the Nets are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games following 2 or more consecutive wins.  Take New York.

6* Spurs/Grizzlies TNT National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3.5

The Key: This is an awful spot for the aging San Antonio Spurs.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich rests some of his aging players in this one.  Either way, I like this spot for the Grizzlies, who had Wednesday off and will be the fresher team.  I also like the way the Grizzlies are playing right now.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall.  One of the two losses came 82-92 at San Antonio on November 21, so they'll also be out for revenge from that loss two weeks later.  Memphis is 70-42 ATS in its last 112 vs. good defensive teams that allow 91 or fewer points per game.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents.  San Antonio is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 Thursday games.  Take Memphis.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on North Texas +16.5

The Key: Texas-Arlington could not be more overvalued than it is right now.  The betting public has seen it beat teams like Ohio State and Memphis, while also challenging Louisiana Tech and Texas.  Arlington is coming off a 73-80 (OT) loss to Texas on Tuesday, and now I expect it to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  That also makes this a quick turnaround for Arlington, which only has one day in between games to get ready for North Texas.  I had North Texas as 20-point dogs against Northern Iowa last time out.  That was an unfortunate loss as the Mean Green actually held a 2-point halftime lead over the Panthers before getting outscored by 25 points after intermission.  Look for them to stay within 16 points of this Arlington squad, which isn't as good at Northern Iowa.  Arlington is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games after winning 3 of its last 4.  Arlington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after an ATS win.  Take North Texas.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit +21.5

The Key: The betting public has been quick to back the Vanderbilt Commodores after their 5-1 start this season.  But their first five games couldn't have been any easier as they played Austin Peay, Gardner Webb, Stony Brook, St. John's and Wake Forest.  Keep in mind they only beat Stony Brook by 7 at home.  They are coming off their first loss of the season to No. 4 ranked Kansas 63-70.  I expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  I also expect them to be looking ahead to another huge showdown at Baylor in their next game on December 6th.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Commodores.  Detroit is not a bad team as its two losses have come on the road to Pitt by 16 as 17.5-point dogs and Oral Roberts by 5 as 7-point dogs.  The Titans are an elite offensive team that is putting up 96.0 points per game on 49.5% shooting.  They have a whopping six players averaging 10 points or more, so they share the ball well and get everyone involved.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Detroit.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 192.5

The Key: These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  The 76ers rank last in offensive efficiency at 91.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks are 23rd at 99.6 points per 100 possessions.  These teams are used to playing in ugly, low-scoring games when they meet.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with all five games seeing 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined to average 183.6 points in those 5 meetings.  The UNDER is 25-12 in 76ers last 37 games on 0 days of rest.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 home games.  The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Knicks last 15 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Charlotte Hornets +9.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are 19-0 this season.  The betting public has been backing them in stride too, and they've been rewarded with a 13-6 ATS record.  But the Warriors have now set some expectations for the betting public that they cannot live up to.  They are 9.5-point road favorites over the Hornets here when they shouldn't be.  After all, Charlotte is better than it gets credit for.  It is 10-7 on the season with five of its seven losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  The Hornets rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency.  The Hornets also check in on two days of rest, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in this situation.  They'll give the Warriors their best shot tonight, and that will be good enough to stay within 9.5 points.  Take Charlotte.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Dakota State +16

The Key: The North Dakota State Bison are coming off a 23-10 season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They returned four starters from last year's team and three key reserves, so they have almost everyone back.  They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming by a final of 74-80 on the road to Illinois.  The Bison held a 14-point lead in the first half of that game before getting outscored 52-35 after intermission by the Illini.  Iowa State capped off an Emerald Coast Classic Tournament championship with an 84-73 win over Illinois.  But the Cyclones trailed 57-58 with 11 1/2 minutes remaining in that game.  I believe that common opponent gives a good indication that the Bison can hang with the Cyclones and stay within this 16-point spread.  Iowa State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off four straight games where it scored 80 points or more.  The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Dakota State.

7* Wizards/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +9

The Key: The Washington Wizards have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  But with this slow start comes some line value that is tough to pass up.  After losing four straight coming in, and facing the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers, the Wizards won't be lacking any motivation tonight.  They have had two days off in between games to get ready for Cleveland, too.  Turnovers have been a problem for the Wizards, but the Cavs are 0-8 ATS against teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Washington is 44-23 ATS in its last 67 road games off a close loss by 3 point or less.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers +8

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who played the Timberwolves yesterday.  Not only will this be a 2nd of a back-to-back for the Clippers, it will also be their 5th game in 7 days and 8th game in 12 days.  They have nothing left in the tank for this game against the Blazers tonight.  Portland has not lost by more than 6 points to Los Angeles in any of the last 8 meetings in this series.  I think we're getting great value with the Blazers here given the rest situation.  Take Portland.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Texas +20.5

The Key: North Texas hasn't covered a spread yet (0-3 ATS) this season and is undervalued as a result.  Northern Iowa is 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes an upset 71-67 home win over North Carolina.  It's clear to me that this line is way inflated given the starts these teams have had this season.  North Texas is 2-3 this year, but two losses have come by exactly two points.  Northern Iowa has just one win by more than 20 points during its 4-1 start.  The Panthers are a slow-it-down team, which makes it hard for them to cover big spreads like this one. The Mean Green are  scoring 86.2 points per game on 49.7% shooting, so their offense is fully capable of keeping them competitive in this game.  Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off a win by 30 points or more.  Take North Texas.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the most profitable road team to back this season.  They are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in their eight road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game away from home.  I look for this trend to continue today as they are once again catching too many points against the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Timberwolves have won three in a row coming in, including a 101-91 road win at Sacramento on Friday.  The Clippers aren't playing well enough to be 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Timberwolves improve to 9-0 ATS on the road in 2015.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 197

The Key: The Utah Jazz are a slow-it-down team that plays some of the best defense in the NBA.  The Jazz rank 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  They actually rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging 94.7 possessions per game.  They are 19th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  New Orleans is expected to be without leading scorer Anthony Davis, which is going to make life real difficult for them offensively.  Utah is 15-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Pelicans last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* GW/Cincinnati Barclays Center Classic *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati -5.5

The Key: Mick Cronin's Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-0 start behind their five returning starters.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, outscoring teams by 31.4 points per game.  Because they had a close call against Nebraska yesterday, I believe this line is smaller than it should be against George Washington.  The Colonials are also 6-0, but they've had much closer games than Cincinnati as four of their six wins have come by single-digits.  George Washington is 0-6 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games off 4 straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Take Cincinnati.

6* SDSU/WVU FS1 National TV Annihilator on West Virginia -2.5

The Key: West Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  It is 5-0 and has won all five games by 8 points or more, including four by 13 points or more.  Three of the five wins have come by 41 or more points as well.  San Diego State has already lost two games, including a 43-49 home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock as 16.5-point favorites.  I think we're getting great value here on the Mountaineers as only 2.5-point favorites in this Las Vegas Invitational Championship Game.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.  Take West Virginia.

6* Pelicans/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +6.5

The Key: The Pelicans have won three straight coming in thanks to finally getting healthy.  Anthony Davis has been a big reason why, scoring at least 20 points and grabbing at least 17 rebounds in all three games.  The Pelicans are averaging 115.3 points during this win streak.  Sixth man Ryan Anderson has averaged 26.6 points over his last five games.  Backup point guard Ish Smith is contributing 18.0 points and 9.5 assists per game over his last four.  The Clippers have lost 8 of their last 11 and should not be this heavily favored here.  That includes an 11-point home loss to Utah, an 11-point home loss to Toronto, and an 11-point road loss to Portland in three of their last four games overall.  Los Angeles is 20-34 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite, and 2-11 ATS in its last 13 November home games.  The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Take New Orleans.

6* NCAAB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on UMass +4

The Key: It's pretty clear that UMass is a better team that Creighton and shouldn't be an underdog in this game.  The Minutemen have opened 4-0, which is really impressive when you consider they have been a dog in two games.  They beat Harvard 69-63 on the road as 2.5-point underdogs.  They also crushed Clemson 82-65 on a neutral court despite being 7.5-point dogs in that game.  I have not been impressed with Creighton, which is 3-1.  It was crushed 65-86 at Indiana, and it only beat an awful Rutgers team 85-75 as 12-point favorites on a neutral court.  The other two wins came against overmatched Texas Southern and UT-San Antonio teams.  The Minutemen are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  UMass is 8-1 ATS in its last nine November games.  Creighton is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Take UMass.

7* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 196

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are playing tremendous defense this season.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.1 points per 100 possessions.  But their offense has really been lacking recently.  They've averaged 93.3 points in their last three games and have turned the ball over 39 times in their last two.  This has typically been a low-scoring series of late as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  They have combined for 180, 195 and 192 points in their last three meetings dating back to last season.  Dallas is 10-1 UNDER off a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Mavericks last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.   The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic Game of the Week on Missouri +7.5

The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season.  They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters.  They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again.  They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs.  That was before an ugly 42-66 loss to Kansas State yesterday as they shot just 30.9 percent from the floor.  I believe that blowout loss has the Tigers catching a few too many points here against Northwestern, which lost 69-80 to UNC yesterday.  Northwestern is now 3-1, but two of its wins were far from impressive with a 79-72 home win over Fairfield as 15-point favorites and an 83-80 home win over Columbia as 5.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats are a tired team as they'll be playing their 4th game in 7 days.  Missouri will only be playing its 2nd game in 7 days.  That's the difference here as the Tigers will have a lot more in the tank.  Take Missouri.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Key: The Washington Wizards come in playing well having won three straight games over Orlando, Milwaukee and Detroit by a combined 40 points.  They have now had two days off in between games, and this will actually be just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They'll be full of energy in this one to say the least.  The Pacers are also playing well, but they are now overvalued here as only 2.5-point road underdogs in this game.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NBA Central division opponents.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers +8

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to go 0-82.  This 0-14 start is ugly, but with that start comes some betting value here in the very near future, and I believe there's a lot of it tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Timberwolves are improved this season, but they shouldn't be 8-point favorites against anyone.  That's especially the case when you consider how poorly they have played at home.  The Timberwolves are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in home games this year, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game in the process.  The 76ers have gone a profitable 4-3 ATS on the road this year.  The Timberwolves are now 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games overall.  Minnesota is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Take Philadelphia.

6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic *CA$H COW* on Missouri +5.5

The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season.  They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters.  They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again.  They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs.  That game against Xavier was six days ago so they've had plenty of time to prepare for Kansas State.  The Wildcats lost their top three scorers from last year in Marcus Foster, Nino Williams and Thomas Gipson, who all averaged at least 11.3 points per game.  They are 3-0 this season, but have taken advantage of an extremely soft schedule with three home games against Maryland-East Shore, Columbia and South Dakota.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Missouri.

6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Knicks/Thunder UNDER 207

The Key: The New York Knicks got a lot better defensively this season when they signed defensive anchor Robin Lopez in the offseason.  They are playing great on the defensive end, holding eight of their last nine opponents to less than 100 points.  But they haven't been a whole lot better offensively this year, scoring 99 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in their last 9 games as a result.  Their job defensively tonight got a whole lot easier when it was announced that Kevin Durant was going to miss this game as well as he continues to recover from injury.  The Thunder just aren't as explosive offensively without him.  These teams played in a couple low-scoring affairs last season.  They combined for 192 and 183 points in their two meetings.  I don't expect that a year later its' going to be any different, especially without Durant and with the way the Knicks are getting after it defensively.  OKC is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB Game of the Night on Iowa -2

The Key: Marquette is clearly in trouble this season.  It lost its top scorer from last season in Matt Carlino (15.0 PPG), and three other players who played significant minutes.  Only two starters returned for the Golden Eagles.  They lost 80-83 at home to Belmont in their opener, and then only beat IUPUI 75-71 at home as 13.5-point favorites last time out.  That's the same IUPUI team that lost by 24 at NC State last night.  Iowa is a veteran bunch that returned four starters this season.  It has handled its business with 76-59 and 103-68 home wins over Gardner Webb and Coppin State, respectively.  I look for the Hawkeyes to go on the road and get a win here as a short favorite.  Marquette is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or a pick 'em over the last 3 seasons, losing by 13.0 points per game.  Take Iowa.

6* Bucks/Cavaliers TNT *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: These teams just played a few days ago on November 14 in a double-overtime thriller in which the Bucks won 108-105 at home.  But this game was tied 88-88 at the end of regulation, which is 176 combined points, nearly 20 points below this 195.5-point total.  These teams are obviously very familiar with each other after having just played, and I look for the defenses to be at an advantage because of it.  The UNDER is 17-4 in Bucks last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on Saint Louis -6

The Key: Saint Louis was in rebuilding mode last year with no returning starters, and it's no surprise they took a step back.  But now the Billikens have 4 returning starters in 2015-16 and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  SIU-Edwardsville is in the same situation that Saint Louis was last year.  The Panthers have zero returning starters this season.  They only have one returning key reserve in C.J. Carr, who averaged 6.2 points per game last year.  They are pretty much starting over this year.  Saint Louis crushed Hartford 85-68 in its opener while shooting 52.8% from the floor and committing only 7 turnovers.  Saint Louis beat SIU-Edwardsville 67-61 at home last year and 82-58 on the road in 2013.  I expect a result somewhere in between those two performances.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home win by 10 points or more in the first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more consecutive ATS losses are 30-9 ATS since 1997.  Take Saint Louis.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are rolling right now.  They have gone 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall.  They are not only winning, they are dominating as all five wins have come by 13 points or more.  That includes road wins over Houston and Oklahoma City, as well as home wins over Washington and Atlanta, so it's not like they are beating up on bad teams.  The Mavericks are a tired bunch right now as this will be their 7th game in 11 days.  Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. teams who win 60% or more of their road games.  Take this 14-0 angle backing the Celtics straight to the bank.  Take Boston.

6* Georgetown/Maryland ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Maryland -7.5

The Key: The Maryland Terrapins are the third-ranked team in the country this season.  They returned two of their best players in Melo Trimble (16.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Jake Layman (12.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg).  They added in Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, while also nabbing five-star recruit Diamond Stone.  The Terrapins got off to a good start this season with an 80-56 win over Mount St. Mary's.  Trimble (14) and Layman (16) led five players who scored in double figures as the Terps held Mount St. Mary's to 31.1% shooting and outrebounded them 44-20.  Georgetown has just two starters back this year and is in serious trouble after losing 80-82 at home in double-overtime to Radford int he opener.  The Hoyas were actually outrebounded 37-43 by Radford, yes Radford.  Georgetown is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, losing by 11.5 points per game.  Maryland is 42-23 ATS in its last 65 home games off a win by 15 points or more, winning by 21.5 points per game.  Take Maryland.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

The Key: At 1-9 on the season, the Pelicans are in desperate need of a win to right the ship.  The good news is that Anthony Davis recently returned to the lineup in an 87-95 loss at New York last time out and scored 36 points, so he appears healthy.  Look for Davis to lead the Pelicans to a blowout win tonight over the Denver Nuggets, who lost 81-105 in Phoenix last time out.  The Nuggets' best player in Kenneth Faried had to sit out the second half of that game, and he's questionable to return tonight with a back injury.  Denver is 1-12 ATS when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons, losing by 8.2 points per game in this spot.  The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two years, losing by 10.8 points per game.  Denver is 0-8 ATS after scoring 35 or fewer points in the first half last game over the last three seasons, losing by 11.3 points per game.  The Pelicans are 24-8 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last two seasons.  Take New Orleans.

6* SDSU/Utah ESPN 2 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 132

The Key: Utah and San Diego State are two teams that make a living off their defense.  The Aztecs finished second in Division 1 in scoring defense last season at 53.9 points per game and 3rd in fewer points per possession.  They limited Illinois State to 30.8 percent shooting in their opener.  Utah held its opponents to 41.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts last season behind the efforts of defensive anchor Jakob Poeltl.  Both teams went over the total in their openers, which I think is why this total has been inflated.  San Diego State beat Illinois State 71-60 while Utah beat Southern Utah 82-71 and allowed 50% shooting, including 10 of 19 from 3-point range.  But look for the Utes to come back with a much stronger effort defensively in this one.  This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. SDSU beat Utah 53-49 at home last year for 102 combined points despite the total being set at 130.5.  In their previous meeting, SDSU beat Utah 64-50 for 114 combined points with a total of 127.  SDSU is 40-22 UNDER in all games over the last three seasons.  Utah is 16-6 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three years. Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers +6

The Key: The grand plan of the Pacers to go smaller this season and utilize the talents of Paul George and Monte Ellis is coming to fruition.  The Pacers are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with their only loss coming to the beat team in the Eastern Conference in the Cleveland Cavaliers by a final of 97-101 on the road as 8-point underdogs.  George is averaging 29.3 points and 9.3 boards while shooting 47.5 percent, including 19 of 40 from 3-point range, over his last six games.  Indiana is 10-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Take Indiana.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +3

The Key: After a 1-7 start, the Sacramento Kings had a team meeting and it has really brought this club together.  They have won two straight behind a healthy return of DeMarcus Cousins and a more comfortable Rajon Rondo.  Cousins scored 30 of his 40 points in the second half while Rondo has 23 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds in a win over the Nets on Friday.  Cousins has now amassed 73 points in back-to-back wins over the Pistons and Nets.  The Kings have averaged 107.5 points in games that Cousins has played this year, and only 97.5 in the four that he's missed.  Sacramento is 15-3 straight up in its last 18 home meetings with Toronto and should not be an underdog here.  Take Sacramento.

6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Spurs UNDER 196

The Key: Philadelphia just lost 85-102 at Oklahoma City last night in a low-scoring affair that saw 187 combined points. I expect more of the same from them tonight against the Spurs.  The last time they traveled to San Antonio last season, they lost 75-100 for 175 combined points.  The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging just 92.7 points per 100 possessions.  Their defense is at least decent with all of the big guys in the middle at their disposal, but they can't get anything going offensively.  It's not going to get any easier tonight against a Spurs team that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 94.3 points per 100 possessions.  San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER off a road win where it scored 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 (76ers) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of less than 25% and playing a team with a winning record are 72-32 since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 203.5

The Key: When looking at the recent history between the Cavs and Knicks, it's easy to see that there is some serious value with the UNDER 203.5 tonight.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 182, 184, 177 and 185 points, which comes out to an average of 182 points per game.  That's 21.5 points less than this 203.5-point total.  These teams just played on November 4 with 182 combined points.  This total just makes no sense to me with how high it has been set, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +9.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  I always look to fade teams in this spot, and this is a prime opportunity to do so.  The Warriors are 9-0 and the betting public cannot get enough of them right now.  Oddsmakers are forced to jack up their lines game in and game out, and it's going to be profitable to fade them sooner rather than later.  This looks like the prime opportunity to do so as the Warriors would have to go on the road and win by double-digits in this spot to beat us.  Minnesota is 4-3 this season with 4 wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, Bulls and Hawks all on the road, and three of those coming by 9 points or more.  The Timberwolves will be motivated for their first home win here.  Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio both didn't play against Charlotte on Tuesday, but both are coming back for this game.  The Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -3

The Key: The Denver Nuggets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight, so they will be ready to go when they welcome the Milwaukee Bucks.  The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after their 83-99 loss at home to Boston yesterday.  Making matters worse for the Bucks is that three of their best players are expected to miss this game in O.J. Mayo, Jabari Parker and Michael Carter-Williams.  The thick air in Denver is going to play a big role here.  The Bucks haven't had much luck in Denver anyways, going 8-36 in 44 meetings all-time.  They have dropped five straight trips to Denver as well.  Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games against the Western Conference.  Take Denver.

7* NBA *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They had a tremendous preseason and that has carried over into the regular season.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over quality opponents in Washington (118-98) and Milwaukee (99-83).  Yes, they did play last night against the Bucks, but they had three days off before that game, so that makes this second of a back-to-back a non-factor.  Plus, the Celtics will bring plenty of energy into this one anyways as they want revenge from their 98-100 road loss to Indiana a week ago today.  The Pacers are overvalued heading into this game because they have gone 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall.  Boston was a 2-point road favorite at Indiana in the first meeting, and now it is only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  Based on that 2-point spread, the Celtics should be roughly 8-point home favorites here when you factor in home-court advantage.  I believe were are getting them at a discounted price as a result.  Boston is 14-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is why the Celtics have been so profitable to back in these no rest situations.  Take Boston.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Lakers +11

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers have been better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  They just haven't been able to close games late because they have been in almost every game they've played.  Four of their five losses have come by 11 points or less, and if they lose this game Tuesday, it's likely to be by 11 or less once again.  The Miami Heat are coming off a huge 96-76 home win over Toronto last time out that has them overvalued.  But the Heat haven't won two straight games yet this season as they've alternated wins and losses.  The Lakers were awful last year and not as good as they are this year, yet they only lost to the Heat by 6 and 3 points.  In fact, each of the last 9 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less, which is even more impressive when you consider Lebron James played the majority of those games for the Heat.  That's a 9-0 angle when you figure in this 11-point spread tonight.  Take Los Angeles.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Nuggets PK

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are hungry for a win after dropping two straight and four of their last five.  They have had two days off in between games having last played on Friday.  So they had the entire weekend to correct their mistakes.  Head coach Mike Malone was pleased with the way his team responded in the second half against the Warriors on Friday, outscoring them 60-45 after intermission while shooting 51.1 percent.  Look for that effort to carry over into this game.  The Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They were outscored 41-11 in the 4th quarter to lose to the Pistons 103-120 last night.  I look for them to come out flat in this game after that brutal finish and because their starters are asked to play so many minutes.  The Blazers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.  Take Denver.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Key: The Thunder have lost three straight games by all by 6 points or less to three good teams in Houston, Toronto and Chicago, with two of those losses coming on the road.  They also had to play 4 games in 5 days during that losing streak, so it was just a very difficult stretch of games.  They've had two days off to regroup, rest, and get better as a team.  I expect them to put their best foot forward now as they return home to face the Phoenix Suns.  They weren't healthy last year, yet they won 3 out of 4 meetings with the Suns with two of those coming by 12 and 24 points.  The Thunder are a dangerous team now at full strength with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka all healthy.  They'll cruise to victory tonight in a huge effort to end this losing streak.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* Rockets/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on OVER 215.5

The Key: These are two teams that love to push the tempo as they both rank in the top 10 in the NBA in possessions per game.  That's going to lead to a high-scoring game tonight, which is the usual outcome when these teams get together.  They have combined for 213, 226, 227, 223, 223, 224 and 218 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 222 combined points per game.  Because of this, I believe there's some value with the over 215.5 tonight.  Houston has combined with its opponents for 226, 233 and 215 points in its last three games overall.  The OVER is 9-1 in Clippers last 10 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 10-3 in Clippers lats 13 games overall.  The OVER is 15-5 in Clippers last 20 Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Take the OVER.

6* Nuggets/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on OVER 211

The Key: The Nuggets are going to make a concentrated effort to push the tempo tonight after their 84-96 loss to defensive-minded Utah last night.  "In our losses, we've had too many ups and downs," said Danilo Gallinari, who scored a team-high 18 points. "We cannot allow ourselves to have too many ups and downs and have lapses in the game where we don't have pace".  The Warriors play at the league's fourth-fastest pace this season and lead the NBA in averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions.  Looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that there is value with the OVER.  These teams have gone 3-1 to the OVER in their last four meetings while averaging 226.3 combined points per game.  That's roughly 15 points more than tonight's posted total of 211.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston Celtics PK

The Key: The Boston Celtics were one of the most impressive teams in the preseason with their 6-1 record while ranking 2nd in the NBA in efficiency, outscoring teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions.  It hasn't exactly translated into the regular season with their 1-3 start, but their three losses have come to the Raptors, Spurs and Pacers.  Off 3 straight losses, look for the Celtics to be playing with a little extra motivation tonight.  At the same time, I expect the Wizards to come out flat following Bradley Beal's last-second 3-pointer to down the Spurs 102-99 on Wednesday.  The Wizards are 3-1, but all three wins have come by 5 points or fewer, and two against the lowly Magic and Bucks. They also lost to the Knicks at home.   The home team went 3-0 in their 3 meetings last year.  The Wizards are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a win by 6 points or less, coming back to lose by 5.5 points per game in this situation.  Take Boston.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Key: The 1-3 Charlotte Hornets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 4.5-point road underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  They are coming off a huge offensive performance against the Bulls to get their first win of the season, which has them overvalued.  But now they take on a Western Conference playoff contender in the Dallas Mavericks, whose two losses this season have come against two of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers and Raptors.  The Mavericks have won 23 of their last 24 meetings with the Hornets in which Dirk Nowitzki has played.  They have held Charlotte to below 100 points 13 times in a 14-game home winning streak in this series.  I look for their home dominance in this series to continue tonight.  Take Dallas.

6* Knicks/Cavs NBA on ESPN *CA$H COW* on New York +10.5

The Key: The New York Knicks have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They won 122-97 at Milwaukee as 4.5-point underdogs and 117-110 at Washington as 7-point dogs.  Their only two losses came at home against two of the best teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs.  So, they have played four playoff teams from last year, and they've handled themselves very well.  Cleveland is overvalued right now due to a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  That was the case for the Cavaliers as they failed to cover as 13-point road favorites in a 7-point win at Philadelphia last time out, and it's the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites when they shouldn't be.  The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Cleveland.  Take New York.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks +1.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 3-0 and overvalued as 1.5-point road favorites over the Dallas Mavericks as a result.  They have beaten three teams who are a combined 2-8 on the season.  Now they face a Dallas team that is getting healthy with Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons returning to the lineup.  The Mavs are 2-1 this season despite playing three tough road games already.  They are going to be amped up for their home opener tonight.  The Mavericks are 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings with the Raptors.  Take Dallas.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New York Knicks +8

The Key: The New York Knicks got better this offseason than most people think.  Just having a healthy Carmelo Anthony back has made a huge difference, but four new players are making big-time contributions en route to a 2-1 start.  Derrick Williams is averaging 13.3 points per game, Robin Lopez is averaging 11.3 points and 1.7 blocks, Kristaps Porzingis is putting up 11.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, and Kyle O'Quinn is averaging 9.3 points and 7.7 boards.  The Knicks beat the Bucks 122-97 on the road and the Wizards 117-110 on the road, which were two payoff teams last year.  They have had a day off since that win over the Wizards on Saturday.  The Spurs, meanwhile, will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here after beating the Celtics 95-87 Sunday.  The Spurs are obviously up there in age, so I'll be looking to go against them in these types of situations all year.  New York has actually won 4 of its last 6 meetings with San Antonio, including 3 of its last 4 home meetings.  The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take New York.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +7

The Key: The Bucks are 0-2 right now and desperate for their first victory of the season, while the Raptors are 2-0 and overvalued here as 7-point favorites as a result.  This Bucks team is better than they have shown through their first two games, and I look for them to prove it tonight.  When a game is expected to be high-scoring, the Bucks usually have success because their defense is so good.  The Bucks are 10-1 ATS in a road game when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  Meanwhile, Toronto is in a bad spot here.  The Raptors are 2-11 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  I'll gladly back both of these situations in what will likely be an outright win for the Bucks.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The Key: This is one of my favorite situations.  This is a home-and-home situation where the Blazers played in Phoenix last night and lost 92-110, but now they play for a second straight night, this time in Portland.  I look for the Blazers to have their revenge at home.  They won their home opener 112-94 over New Orleans behind 37 points from one of the most underrated players in the NBA in C.J. McCollum.  This Blazers roster is much better than it gets credit for despite the loss of four starters from last year.  They space the floor very well with 3-point shooters everywhere, which is perfect for today's NBA.  McCollum and Damian Lillard can both get to the rim at will and make plays for their shooters.  It's definitely the most underrated guard tandem in the league.  The Blazers only shot 19 free throws last night while the Suns shot 42.  The Blazers voiced their frustration over the officiating, and I look for them to get the calls at home tonight.  The home team is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Portland.

6* Warriors/Pelicans Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans +5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans are out for some serious revenge on the Warriors.  Not only did they get swept in the playoffs last year, they also lost the opener on ring night to the Warriors 95-111 on the road.  They are 0-2 on the season with two road losses, but now they return home and have had two days off in between games to get ready for the Warriors.  Golden State won't have that same luxury as it won at Houston last night and will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  Two of the past three meetings in New Orleans have gone to overtime.  Andrew Bogut is hurt for the Warriors, so look for Anthony Davis to have a field day.  Davis went just 4-of-20 in the opener against the Warriors with Bogut on the floor, but that was a fluke as he's averaged 30.9 points on 56.9 percent shooting in his previous seven matchups with Golden State.  New Orleans is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games off a road loss.  The Pelicans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 41-20-3 ATS in their last 64 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take New Orleans.

6* NBA Non-Conference *BLOWOUT* on San Antonio Spurs -14

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets might be the worst team in the NBA this season.  They still have Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez around, but outside of those two it's very ugly.  They are starting Shane Larkin and Wayne Ellington, who combined for six points in a season-opening 100-115 home loss to the Bulls.  They are an awful defensive team that the Spurs should shred up.  San Antonio lost 106-112 at Oklahoma City and will be motivated for its first win in its home opener tonight.  The Spurs may be the best team in the NBA now that they added LaMarcus Aldridge.  Kawhi Leonard has arrived, scoring a career-high 32 points against the Thunder.  The Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Spurs are 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take San Antonio.

6* Hawks/Knicks NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on New York +4.5

The Key: The New York Knicks are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, while the Atlanta Hawks are going to take a big step back.  I love all of the moves the Knicks made this offseason, and it really paid off in their opener in a 122-97 rout at Milwaukee.  Newcomers Derrick Williams and Kristaps Porzingis combined for 40 points.  The Knicks bench outscored Milwaukee's reserves 73-32 in a game where Carmelo Anthony didn't have to do much as he scored just 11 points on 4-of-16 shooting.  That's a great sign for this team going forward.  The Hawks lost key wing DeMarre Carroll to the Raptors this offseason and aren't going to be nearly as good without his presence on both ends of the floor.  His replacement, Kent Bazemore, went scoreless in in 21 minutes in a 94-106 home loss to Detroit in the opener.  The Hawks should not be favored on the road tonight.  The Knicks played them tough last season as all three games were decided by 7 points or less.  Take New York.

6* Timberwolves/Lakers ESPN Late-Night *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers are finally healthy to open the 2015-16 season and should be able to play some great basketball in the early going as a result.  Kobe Bryant is back, and they've added in some nice pieces in Roy Hibbert, Lou Williams and De'Angelo Russell.  Julius Randle played great in the preseason and looks fully recovered from his season-ending injury that he suffered in the opener last year.  Jordan Clarkson is an up-and-coming star, so the Lakers are in really good shape with their starting 5, plus they have Williams, Nick Young and Brandon Bass providing some offensive punch off the bench.  The Timberwolves have one of the worst rosters in the NBA, and that showed in the preaseson as they ranked 30th in efficiency, getting outscored by 11.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Lakers have won 29 of their last 34 meetings with the Timberwolves, including 17 of their last 19 at home.  Take Los Angeles.

6* NBA Wednesday *TOTAL* Annihilator on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The Key: The New York Knicks improved their defense this offseason by signing Robin Lopez, who is one of the best defensive centers in the league.  His presence has been felt in the preseason as the Knicks ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 94.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Milwaukee Bucks were a great defensive team last year in allowing just 43.7% shooting to opponents.  The Knicks averaged just 91.9 points on 42.8% shooting last year, while the Bucks managed to shoot just 45.4% from the field.  The final three meetings between these teams last year saw 190, 174 and 177 combined points, which is an average of 180.3 combined points per game.  I look for this game to finish in the 180-point range as well.  The Knicks are without shooting guard Aaron Afflalo, which hampers their offense.  The Bucks are without Jabari Parker, O.J. Mayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, which hampers them as well.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls/Nets UNDER 196.5

The Key: The Bulls and Nets are accustomed to playing in low-scoring games when they get together.  None of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 200 or more combined points.  They have combined for 199, 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points in their last nine meetings.  That's an average of 182.7 points per game, which is well below this posted total of 196.  It's also an 8-1 angle backing the under.  The Nets have one of the least-talented rosters in the NBA, and the Bulls don't have the personnel to run the up-tempo offense that Fred Hoiberg liked to run while he was at Iowa State.  The Nets run their offense through Brook Lopez, so they are a slow-it-down team this year.  Plus, starting PG Jarrett Jack is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury for the Nets.  The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have a lot of energy to get up and down the court on offense.  Take the UNDER.

7* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Tuesday Night *BAILOUT* on UNDER 213

The Key: These teams are very familiar with one another after the Warriors swept the Pelicans in the playoffs last year.  Adding to that familiarity to open 2015-16 is that first-year head coach Alvin Gentry was an assistant for the Warriors last season.  That will be an interesting dynamic and one that should help lead to a low-scoring opener with all this familiarity.  These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points in five of their past six meetings at the end of regulation.  They have combined for 207, 216, 184, 205, 203 and 208 points at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Pelicans last 12 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Warriors last 11 home games.  The UNDER is 44-19-1 in Warriors last 64 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Cavs Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +4.5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing desperate basketball tonight in this elimination game.  I look for Lebron James and company to show up in a big way at home tonight.  There is clearly some value here with the Cavs considering they are bigger home dogs in Game 6 than at any other point in this series.  David Blatt made a mistake by going small ball against the Warriors in Game 5, and I look for him to make the proper adjustments and give Timofey Mozgov more minutes tonight.  The Cavs' only chance of winning is to grind it out like they did in the first three games.  They cannot get in a shootout with the Warriors.  So, look for them to have their best defensive lineup on the court for the majority of this contest, which will work to their advantage.  Plays against favorites when leading in a playoff series who win 75% or more of their games against a good team that wins 60% to 75% are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996.  Cleveland is 15-3 ATS when playing four consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 3-12 ATS in road games after having won two of its last three games this season.  The Cavs are 11-3 ATS in home games revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more this season.  Take Cleveland.

7* Cavaliers/Warriors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -8

The Key: This series has a familiar feel to the Memphis series for Golden State.  The Warriors were down 2-1 to the Grizzlies and needing a win on the road to square the series.  They won Game 4 by 17 points and went on to win by 20 at home and by 13 on the road to end the series 4-2.  The Warriors were down 2-1 to the Cavs needing a win on the road, and they came through with a 21-point win in Game 4.  This series is now over in my opinion.  The Cavs just don't have enough ammo without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, and the Warriors will exploit them the rest of the way, including in a Game 5 blowout victory tonight.  Golden State is 24-9 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Cavs are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a double-digit home loss.  The Warriors are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing with two days of rest.  Take Golden State.

7* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -2.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors just haven't played like themselves these first three games.  The same thing happened against Memphis in the Western Conference Semifinals.  They were forced to slow it down and play at Memphis' pace and found themselves down 2-1 facing a crucial Game 4 on the road.  The Warriors would win the next three games of that series while scoring 101, 98 and 108 points and winning all three by 13 points or more as they got back to playing their brand of basketball.  I look for the same thing to happen in Game 4 of this series with their backs against the wall.  Cleveland shot 15 more free throws than Golden State in Game 2 and 12 more in Game 3.  They aren't going to have that kind of an advantage again in Game 4 as the Warriors get much more aggressive.  Plus, Golden State is 10-0 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the past two seasons.  Take Golden State.

7* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors -1.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors have seen their offense take a step back through the first two games of this series.  They were held to less than 100 points by the end of regulation in both contests.  Simply put, they have not been playing the brand of basketball that got them to this point.  I expect Steve Kerr to get his team back to playing the free-flowing offense that made them the top offensive team in the NBA this year.  Cleveland's defense has been good, but its offense is just too predictable now without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving.  That's a huge advantage for the Warriors, and one I expect them to not only exploit tonight, but throughout the rest of the series.  Golden State is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games following a loss.  The Warriors are 15-7 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Take Golden State.

7* Cavaliers/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +8

The Key: Almost everyone is counting out the Cleveland Cavaliers now that they lost starting point guard Kyrie Irving for the rest of the series.  Well, Lebron James isn't going to let his teammates believe that they are finished.  They have been through plenty of adversity to get to this point, and they aren't going to just fold now.  I look for them to easily cover this 8-point spread in Game 2, and to likely pull off the upset.  Cleveland is 13-3 ATS against Western Conference opponents in its last 16.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Sunday games.  Take Cleveland.

7* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 "Total" Annihilator on OVER 203.5

The Key: This NBA Finals figures to be a high-scoring affair between two of the best offensive teams in the league.  I believe this 203.5-point total for Game 1 will be the lowest of the series as they combine to sail way over the total, which will have oddsmakers adjusting future games to have higher totals.  The Warriors put up 109.1 points per game overall and 111.2 points per game at home.  I look for them to approach their season averages against a Cleveland defense that is giving up 99.3 points per game on the road.  Cleveland is scoring 102.9 points per game overall, but it's offense has been much more efficient when Lebron James has been healthy.  The Cavs scored a combined 116.0 points per game in their final two games against Atlanta last series.  The two regular season meetings between these teams averaged 206.5 combined points per game, and Lebron James didn't play in one of them.  Golden State is 23-6 OVER off a game with 70 or more rebounds.  Take the OVER.

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -10

The Key: After getting thoroughly embarrassed in Game 4, and knowing that the Cavs already clinched a trip to the NBA Finals, I look for the Golden State Warriors to close out this series with a blowout home victory in Game 5.  The Warriors allowed the Rockets to shoot 56.6% in Game 4, which is simply unacceptable.  Look for them to come out with more of a sense of urgency in Game 5 tonight on both ends of the floor.  Golden State is 8-0 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Warriors are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss.  Take Golden State.

7* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: After an extremely high-scoring Game 3 in this series, I feel that the oddsmakers have set the total too high for Game 4.  They have raised the total up from 190 in Game 3 to 194 for Game 4 based on the last contest alone.  The Cavaliers are short-handed offensively right now as they are likely without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love again.  The Hawks are without Kyle Korver for the rest of the postseason, which really hurts their floor spacing.  Lebron James is also hurt right now, but playing through it.  Atlanta is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 when facing elimination in a playoff series.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks' last five games overall.  The UNDER is 36-16-1 in Cavaliers last 53 when playing on one days' rest.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -4.5

The Key: I just cannot foresee the Houston Rockets even showing up tonight in Game 4.  They would have to show some pride to do so, but after losing Game 3 by 35 points, they obviously have no pride.  The Warriors will end this series with yet another blowout victory in Game 4 tonight.  They have been playing lights out for a couple weeks now with six straight wins, four of which have come by double-digits.  Golden State has gone 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games following a win by 15 points or more as well.  Take Golden State.

7* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +9.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have not even looked good in losing their first two games of this series to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  As a result, the oddsmakers have overreacted in listing the Cavaliers as big favorites in Game 3.  The Hawks know that their season is at stake today, so they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win.  I believe their effort will be good enough to cover this inflated 9.5-point spread today.  The Hawks are 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses against an opponent) this season.  They are a great bet in this situation today.  Take Atlanta.

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on OVER 214

The Key: This is strictly a value play.  The oddsmakers set the Warriors/Rockets total at 220 for Game 1 and 219 for Game 2.  Now, they have lowered the total all the way down to 214 for Game 3.  They have been forced to do so because the first two games went under the total.  Now, the clear value is with the over in Game 3.  Te OVER is 11-3 in Rockets last 14 home games.  The OVER is 14-6 in Rockets last 20 games overall.  The OVER is 37-18 in Rockets last 55 games following a loss.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -1

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are already playing without Kevin Love.  Now, both Lebron James and Kyrie Irving are hobbled.  James suffered an ankle injury in Game 1, while Irving was non-existent in the opener as he's clearly still nursing his knee injury.  J.R. Smith was there to save the day as he scored 28 points, including 8-of-12 from 3-point range.  That was a once-a-playoffs game for Smith, who can't keep this up.  It's clear that James and Irving are going to need some more help in Game 2, and I just don't believe they'll get it.  The Hawks will be playing with an edge tonight as they look to avoid falling down 0-2 in this series.  After all, they are 40-8 at home this season and rarely lose here.  The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games when revenging a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three years.  Take Atlanta.

6* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Golden State -10

The Key: The Houston Rockets played great in Game 1 and still lost.  James Harden could not have had a better game as he did everything in his power to keep the Rockets in the game, but it still wasn't enough.  Don't expect the Rockets to get that kind of game from Harden again.  Now, Dwight Howard is injured and may not play for them in Game 2.  Meanwhile, Golden State got a big game from Stephon Curry, but the rest of the starting lineup was ho-hum, and Klay Thompson has his worst game of the playoffs.  Look for the Warriors to get more help for Curry in Game 2, which will help them cover this 10-point spread.  The Warriors are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Golden State.

7* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta PK

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have gone 40-7 at home this season.  Yet, the oddsmakers aren't giving them any respect here as they aren't even favored against the Cavaliers.  That's the same Cavaliers team that they have gone 3-1 against this season with all three wins coming by 8-plus points.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Atlanta has owned Cleveland at home here of late, going 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Take Atlanta.

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -10

The Key: The Golden State Warriors have a huge edge in the rest department in Game 1 tonight.  They come in on three days' rest since taking out the Grizzlies in six games.  The Rockets only come in on one days' rest after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers.  There's no question that this will be an advantage for the Warriors, who catch the Rockets emotionally and physically drained.  Golden State beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series, and I look for a similar result in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when playing on three or more days of rest.  The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take Golden State.