Cappers Sports Picks

7* Raptors/76ers Game 3 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 217 

The Key: After combining for 203 points in Game 1, the Raptors and 76ers combined for just 183 points in Game 2.  And now we’re seeing yet another total set that is too high here at 217 points.  The Raptors are 19-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Blazers/Nuggets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -4 

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have won 4 of 5 meetings against the Blazers this season.  The only one they didn’t win was when they rested their starters in their final meeting this season.  The Blazers can’t stop Nikola Jokic, and now the injury to Jusuf Nurkic is finally starting to rear its ugly head.  Enes Kanter can score, but he is one of the worst defenders in the NBA.  The Nuggets pick the Blazers apart in the pick and roll with Jokic and Jamal Murray.  Denver is 38-8 at home this season.  The Nuggets are 18-4 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season.  The Nuggets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Blazers.  Take Denver. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +5.5 

The Key: Houston is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their 5 meetings with the Warriors this season.  The Rockets also took the Warriors to 7 games last year despite not having Chris Paul for the final 2 games.  And Houston only lost by 4 in Game 1 at Golden State despite shooting 8% worse and having the refs against them.  Houston is 8-0 ATS after losing 2 straight games to an opponent this season.  Take Houston. 

7* 76ers/Raptors Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 220.5 

The Key: These teams combined for just 203 total points in Game 1 despite 45 points from Kawhi Leonard.  The Raptors’ suffocating defense continued as they held the 76ers to 95 points and 39.3% shooting.  Toronto is holding its opponents to just 92.5 PPG and 38.9% from the field through their first 6 postseason games.  The 76ers are 18-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +5.5 

The Key: The Houston Rockets had the Warriors down 3-2 last year in the conference finals.  Then Chris Paul went down with injury, and they lost the final two games.  Now the Rockets are healthy and they’ve been looking forward to this rematch for a year.  The Rockets took out their frustration on the Warriors during the regular season, too.  They won three out of four meetings, and their only loss came by two points.  This is a game they’ll likely win outright, but we’ll take the +5.5 for some insurance.  Take Houston. 

7* Spurs/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio +6

The Key: No analysis Saturday

7* Nuggets/Spurs Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio -3 

The Key: The Spurs have won 14 of their last 15 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They are 33-10 at home this season as well.  This team has too big of a home-court edge to only be laying 3 points at home tonight with their season on the line.  I don’t trust the Nuggets to show up because they aren’t used to close out games and know that they have a home game if needed in Game 7.  Popovich will have his guys ready tonight.  Take San Antonio. 

7* Jazz/Rockets Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 213 

The Key: The Rockets and Jazz have combined for 212 or fewer points in eight of their last 11 meetings, including three of four meetings in this series.  The longer the series goes on, the more familiar they become with one another, making points harder to come by.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs and it’s showing in this series.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Rockets’ last 7 games off a loss.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Rockets last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Rockets last 29 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Raptors UNDER 206 

The Key: The UNDER is 4-0 in the first 4 games in this series.  The Raptors and Magic haven’t once topped 205 combined points, and we have a 206-point total for Game 5 here.  They’ve combined for 205, 193, 191 and 192 points in the first 4 games, respectively.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bucks/Pistons Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit +13 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Pistons tonight.  They go from being 9-point home dogs in Game 3 to 13-point dogs in Game 4, a 4-point adjustment.  This despite the fact that Blake Griffin is expected to play tonight.  The Pistons won’t go down without a fight here.  They have been tough at home all season with a 26-16 record.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Detroit. 

7* Raptors/Magic Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando +5.5 

The Key: The Magic showed a lot of heart in Game 3.  They managed to only lose by 5 despite shooting just 36.2% as a team.  In fact, they’ve kept this series close despite not once shooting better than 40% from the field in a single game.  I have to think they are primed for their best shooting performance of the series yet here in Game 4, which should allow them to stay within this 5.5-point spread and possibly win outright.  Orlando is 12-4 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Orlando. 

7* Nuggets/Spurs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio -3.5 

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs have basically dominated this series.  They have led for basically 11 of the 12 quarters played, with the only exception when Jamal Murray went off for 21 points in the 4th quarter of Game 2 to lead the Nuggets to a comeback victory.  The experience and coaching of the Spurs is winning out over the youth, talent and inexperience of the Nuggets thus far.  Expect more of the same tonight.  After all, the Nuggets are now 0-14 SU in their last 14 trips to San Antonio.  This is a short number for the Spurs to have to cover at home given that trend.  Take San Antonio. 

7* Raptors/Magic Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -5 

The Key: The Toronto Raptors dominated the Magic like they should in Game 2 with a 111-82 victory.  They made their statement, especially Kyle Lowry, who got much more aggressive after failing to score in Game 1.  Look for them to build on that performance and regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 in Orlando Friday.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game between two teams that score 102 or more PPG after 42 or more games, after allowing 90 points or less are 71-31 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Toronto. 

7* Warriors/Clippers Game 3 *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +9 

The Key: The Clippers showed they weren’t going to back down in Game 2.  They erased a 31-point deficit and won outright.  The Warriors were deflated like they’ve never been before in the locker room after the game.  And a big reason for that is the season-ending injury to DeMarcus Cousins.  I think they suffer a hangover effect here from that stunning loss and injury.  I love the price we are getting on the rejuvenated Clippers at home tonight as the Warriors would have to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread.  Golden State is 10-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 27-10 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in 5 straight games this season.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Pistons/Bucks Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Detroit +15 

The Key: Rarely will you see a 15-point spread in the playoffs.  I have to take the points here because of the price.  The public doesn’t want to bet the Pistons without Blake Griffin, but keep in mind they made the playoffs without Griffin down the stretch by winning some must-win games.  And whatever they have to give they will be putting on the court tonight to try and get a win in Game 2.  Look for the Bucks to just go through he motions after everything came easy for them in Game 1.  Bets on dogs of 10 or more points revenging 2 straight loss of 10 points or more, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division opponent are 55-23 ATS since 1996.  Take Detroit. 

7* Pacers/Celtics Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 207 

The Key: After combining for just 158 points in an 84-74 victory by the Celtics in Game 1, it’s going to take a lot for these teams to make up 49 points, which is what they’ll have to do to reach this 207-point total.  I think there’s value with the UNDER in Game 2 as well.  Indiana is 34-13 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 26-8-1 in Pacers last 35 road games against at team that wins more than 60% of its home games.  The UNDER is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings in Boston.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Thunder/Blazers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on OVER 223 

The Key: The Blazers have to go smaller without Jusuf Nurkic.  This has been an OVER series during the regular season.  The Thunder and Blazers combined for 250, 231, 237 and 220 pints in their 4 meetings.  That’s an average of 234.5 PPG.  After a low-scoring affair in Game 1, I look for both offenses to get unleashed tonight.  The Thunder shot just 39.8% overall and 15.2% from 3-point range in Game 1.  The Blazers weren’t much better at 41.9% overall.  I can’t foresee both teams being shut down like that again.  I think it was just playoff nerves in Game 1, and both teams will relax and there will be a lot more offensive flow in Game 2 tonight.  Portland is 12-1 OVER in home games against teams that allow 106 or more PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Take the OVER. 

7* Clippers/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +13.5 

The Key: The Clippers shot 40.4% in Game 1 compared to 49.5% for the Warriors.  That includes 36.7% from 3 compared to 46.7% for the Warriors.  Yet they still only lost by 17.  A slight adjustment in shooting percentage in their favor would certainly allow them to stay within 13.5 points tonight, and I think that is very likely.  The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Thunder/Blazers *Total* Annihilator on OVER 225 

The Key: The Blazers have to go small ball now without Jusuf Nurkic.  That will lend itself to more higher-scoring games in this series with the Thunder, who already like small ball and playing at a fast pace.  And this has been an OVER series this season.  The Thunder and Blazers have combined for 250, 231, 237 and 220 points in their last 4 meetings this season, respectively.  That’s an average of 234.5 PPG.  And we have a 225-point total for Game 1, so I like the price we are getting with the OVER.  Portland is 9-0 OVER in its last 9 home games against teams that average 88 or more shots per game.  The Blazers are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 home games against good offensive teams that score 106 or more PPG.  Take the OVER. 

7* Pacers/Celtics Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -7 

The Key: The Boston Celtics didn’t have the regular season they expected.  But they’re now in the playoffs, and it’s time to turn on the after burners.  They won 4 of their final 5 games during the regular season to clinch home-court advantage over the Pacers, including their 117-97 win in Indiana on April 5th that sealed the deal.  The Celtics are 3-1 against the Pacers this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Indiana.  Their 3 wins have come by a combined 49 points, or by an average of 16.3 PPG.  This is a tired Pacers team that doesn’t have much left in the tank without Victor Oladipo.  The Pacers are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games.  Indiana is 1-8 ATS in road games revenging a home loss this season.  Boston is 10-1 ATS in home playoff games over the last 2 years.  The Celtics are 11-1 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last 2 seasons.  Take Boston. 

7* Magic/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -8.5 

The Key: The Toronto Raptors closed the season by going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their final 8 games overall.  They are playoff-ready now, used to having Marc Gasol in the lineup and playing to his strengths.  Look for them to take care of the Magic by double-digits in Game 1 of this series, similar to what they just did on April 1st when they beat the Magic 121-109 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  But now the Raptors are a full strength basically, and this is a real title contender now.  The Raptors are 8-0 ATS in April home games over the last 2 seasons.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Toronto. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Atlanta Hawks -1 

The Key: No analysis Wednesday. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio Spurs -14 

The Key: No analysis Wednesday. 

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit Pistons -10.5 

The Key: The Pistons have dropped 4 straight and now are just one game ahead of both the Heat and Hornets for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They own the tiebreaker over the Heat, so they’re good there, but they don’t over the Hornets.  And the Hornets close with the Cavs and Magic, so they are likely to go 2-0.  That makes these must-win games for the Pistons.  Tonight they host the Grizzlies, who are sitting basically every important player on their team.  They have 8 guys on the injury report missing this game.  You have to think with the importance of this game, Blake Griffin will be making his return tonight for the Pistons, and they’ll be at full strength.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 against the Eastern Conference.  Take Detroit.

7* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Texas Tech +1.5 

The Key: This one is as easy as it gets.  Texas Tech has won 4 of its 5 NCAA Tournament games by double-digits against better completion than Virginia has faced.  And the only exception was beating Gonzaga by 6.  Virginia has trailed in the 2nd half in 4 of their 5 games.  It’s been a minor miracle that they are even here.  Texas Tech is simply too good, too deep and too disciplined to let them off the hook tonight.  The Red Raiders have won 14 of their last 15 games overall while going 13-2 ATS in the process.  Take Texas Tech. 

6* Clippers/Warriors NBA *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +11.5

The Key: No Analysis Sunday.

6* Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5

The Key: No Analysis Sunday.

7* Auburn/Virginia *HEAVY HITTER* on Auburn +6 

The Key: I’ve been a lot more impressed with Auburn than Virginia down the stretch.  The Tigers have won 12 straight games, including their three consecutive victories over three blue bloods in Kentucky, UNC and Kansas.  Virginia barely escaped with wins over Purdue and Oregon the last 2 rounds.  And if they win tonight, it won’t be by more than 6 points.  Take Auburn. 

7* NBA Game of the Week on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Key: The Kings won’t be too interested tonight in beating the Cavaliers, let alone beating them by 10-plus points to cover this spread.  This number is too high.  Especially when you consider the Cavs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 2 days’ rest.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Lipscomb/Texas NIT *CA$H COW* on Texas -1 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns have beaten Colorado and TCU by a combined 27 points in their last 2 games coming in.  Lipscomb had to have a pair of comeback wins over NC State and Wichita State to get here.  I have no doubt the Longhorns are the better team in this matchup and that will show on the court Thursday night as they take down the NIT title.  Take Texas. 

7* Rockets/Clippers NBA TV *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +1 

The Key: The Clippers come in on 2 days’ rest and playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won 13 of their last 15 games overall.  The Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  The Rockets are coming off 3 straight wins and covers, but they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off 3 straight covers as a favorite.  The Clippers have won both meetings with the Rockets this season and are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Celtics/Heat NBA TV *CA$H COW* on Miami +1 

The Key: Miami wants to avenge Monday’s 105-110 loss in Boston in this home and home situation.  The Heat get the Celtics at home tonight and will have their revenge.  The Heat are 25-12 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games off a loss.  The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against Atlantic division teams.  The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Miami. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +5.5 

The Key: The situation is a great one for the Kings tonight.  They want to avenge their 108-119 road loss at Houston on March 30th just a few days ago.  They actually led that game entering the 4th quarter before folding in the closing minutes.  They get the Rockets at home this time around, and the Kings are 23-15 SU & 24-13-1 ATS at home this year.  The Kings are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games playing on one day of rest.  The Rockets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games off an ATS win.  The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  Take Sacramento. 

6* Texas/TCU NIT *CA$H COW* on Texas +2 

The Key: You can bet Texas wants to avenge its two regular season losses to TCU.  The Longhorns lost by 4 on the road and by 13 at home.  They will get their revenge and win Game 3 tonight in the NIT semifinals.  I was very impressed with their 68-55 win over Colorado in the quarterfinals in which they led by 20-plus and were in control the entire way.  Shaka Smart is 15-3 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite as the coach of Texas.  The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.  TCU is 6-14 ATS in Big 12 games this season.  Take Texas. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic +7 

The Key: The Magic are life and death right now with each game.  They only trail the Heat by 0.5 games for the 8th seed in the East.  And they are coming on real strong by winning 7 of their last 8 games coming in.  The Raptors don’t have much to play for the rest of the way.  They are basically locked into the No. 2 seed in the East, unable to catch the Bucks and way ahead of the 76ers.  The situation really favors the Magic.  The Raptors are 0-7 ATS after scoring at least 110 points in 4 straight games this season.  Take Orlando. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana Pacers -5.5 

The Key: The Pacers are tied with the Celtics for the 4th seed in the East.  They will play each other in the first round, so home-court advantage is important.  Especially when the Pacers are 28-10 at home this season.  They will get back on track at home tonight against the Pistons, who are expected to be without their best player in Blake Griffin.  The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Pacers are 14-6 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Pistons are 10-23 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons.  The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team that wins less than 40% of their road games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road meetings with the Pacers.  Take Indiana. 

7* Michigan State/Duke Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke -2 

The Key: I think we’re getting Duke at a great price today because they’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their first 3 NCAA Tournament games, and 7 of their last 8 games overall.  They basically just have to win to cover now.  Duke has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Michigan State.  Take Duke. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Toronto Raptors -10 

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are playing their D-League team tonight.  They will be without LaVine, Dunn, Porter Jr and Markkanen tonight, four players who have been starting for them here down the stretch.  The Raptors should be able to basically just show up and win by double-digits.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Toronto. 

7* Texas Tech/Gonzaga *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -4 

The Key: This feels like the year of the Gonzaga Bulldogs.  They have their most talented team yet and average nearly 90 PPG.  Not even Texas Tech’s vaunted defense will be able to slow them down much.  And the problem for the Red Raiders is that they won’t be able to score with the Zags.  There’s just not much firepower to their offense outside Culver, and they will be exposed by Gonzaga’s balance.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Big 12.  Take Gonzaga. 

7* Hornets/Lakers NBA *BAILOUT* on Charlotte -2.5 

The Key: The Hornets have won 4 straight now and are feeling good about themselves, especially after knocking off two of the best teams in the NBA in the Raptors and Spurs in the process.  They are now just 1.5 games behind the Heat for 8th in the East.  They need to keep winning if they want to make the playoffs.  The Lakers won’t offer much resistance tonight considering they have lost 13 of their last 17 games overall and are missing several players due to injury.  Take Charlotte. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 

The Key: The Nuggets are in a brutal situation tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after losing in Houston last night.  The Thunder will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and should handle their business tonight.  They want to avoid the season sweep after losing their first 3 meetings with the Nuggets this season, so they will be extra hungry here.  The Nuggets are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* Auburn/UNC *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -5.5 

The Key: Auburn relies too much on the 3 ball.  They are hit or miss.  North Carolina can run with them, or they can slow it down if they want to.  But the difference in this game is going to be rebounding.  The Tar Heels are the single-best rebounding team in the country.  Auburn struggles to rebound at times.  The Tar Heels will get several second chance opportunities that will be the difference, and they’ll limit Auburn to one shot.  They should also get several easy transition opportunities on long rebounds from missed Auburn 3-pointers.  Look for the Tar Heels to run away with this one.  Auburn is 1-9 ATS against dominant rebounding teams that average 7 or more boards than their opponents per game over the last 2 seasons.  UNC is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 against SEC teams, while Auburn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 against ACC teams.  Take UNC. 

6* LSU/Michigan State *CA$H COW* on LSU +6.5 

The Key: Michigan State almost never faces a team as athletic as LSU.  That athleticism will be a shock to the system for the Spartans, who are getting too much respect from the books tonight.  They’ve had a very easy schedule getting Bradley and Minnesota in the first 2 round.  LSU will be a different animal.  This is an LSU team that knocked off another Big Ten team in Maryland last round.  LSU is 28-6 this season with 5 of its 6 losses coming by 6 points or less.  So, the Tigers are basically 33-1 ATS if all of their games were lined at +6.5 this season.  Take LSU. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Los Angeles Clippers +9 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown off their win over the Rockets on Tuesday.  They basically have the East and the top overall seed already wrapped up.  They can afford several more losses before they have to worry.  The Clippers are motivated to get the 5th seed or higher and hopefully set up a matchup with the Blazers in the first round.  The Clippers are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall and cannot be tamed right now.  They have won 3 straight meetings with the Bucks, including their 128-126 win in their first meeting this season at home.  The Bucks have a ton of injuries right now that have them well short of full strength.  They aren’t winning by double-digits tonight.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Purdue/Tennessee Sweet 16 *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -1 

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are 31-5 this season.  They would be bigger favorites today had they covered their first two games against Colgate and Iowa.  They had Iowa down by 25.  After letting them come back, look for them to keep the foot on the gas for 40 minutes tonight against Purdue.  They know they need to and they are clearly the more talented team in this matchup if both teams play to their potential.  All 5 starters for the Vols average more than 10 PPG.  They are the definition of team basketball.  Purdue needs Carsen Edwards to go off every night to win.  And while he has the first two games of this tournament, the Vols will come up with a game plan to try and make someone else beat them.  He won’t be going off against Tennessee like he did against Old Dominion and Villanova.  The Vols are 14-3 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Pacers/Thunder ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -6 

The Key: The Thunder have lost 5 of their last 6 and are now just 0.5 games ahead of the Spurs for 8th place in the West.  This is a team that was looked at as a contender just a few weeks ago.  And they know it’s important to have a big finish now to get the 5th seed, which would mean a date with the banged-up Blazers in the first round.  Look for them to turn it on tonight at home against the Pacers.  They want revenge from blowing nearly a 20-point lead to the Pacers two weeks ago to lost 106-108 at Indiana.  It’s a Pacers team that has been atrocious on the road, going 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games while losing by 11 PPG on average.  Take Oklahoma City. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Cleveland Cavaliers +6 

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are about as healthy as they have been all season.  The Boston Celtics will be without Kyrie Irving, and they could also be without both Al Horford and Jayson Tatum, who are both questionable tonight.  It’s no wonder they are struggling with all these injuries.  The Celtics have lost 4 straight coming in and are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The Cavs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 Tuesday games.  The Cavs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic +2 

The Key: The Orlando Magic are one game behind the Heat for 8th place and only 2.5 games out of 6th place in the East.  They only have nine games remaining, so they need a big finish to make the playoffs.  They’ve certainly given themselves a chance by winning four straight coming in.  The 76ers are beatable on the road as they are just 18-17 SU & 15-20 ATS on the highway.  And they’ve played the 76ers tough, losing by 1 and 8 on the road, and beating them by 5 at home in their 3 meetings this season.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS after scoring 120 points or more this season.  The Magic are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 against Atlantic division teams.  Take Orlando. 

7* Liberty/VA Tech East Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -8.5 

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are a dangerous team now that starting PG and floor general Justin Robinson has returning from injury to join this team in the NCAA Tournament.  It showed how much they missed him in the first half against Saint Louis as the Hokies stormed out to a 22-point lead by the break and simply coasted to the finish line.  Liberty needed a big comeback from double-digits down in the 2nd half to beat Mississippi State in their opener.  That will have taken a lot out of them.  I’ll back the fresher, more talented team tonight in what should be a double-digit blowout in the Hokies’ favor.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, and they’re winning by 17 PPG in this spot.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* Villanova/Purdue South Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova +3.5 

The Key: It’s rare that you’ll see a higher seed have home-court advantage over a lower seed.  But that’s the case here when Villanova meets Purdue in Hartford, Connecticut Saturday night in the round of 32.  And the Wildcats have all the momentum, winning the Big East regular season title, and then winning the Big East Tournament.  They have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall coming in.  And they were more dominant in their 61-57 win over St Mary’s than the final score would indicate.  They don’t mind grinding it out, which is exactly what the Big Ten is all about, so they’’ll make up well with the Boilermakers.  Purdue has lost twice to Minnesota in its last 4 games and is vulnerable.  The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games.  Villanova is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 against Big Ten teams.  Purdue is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 against Big East teams.  Take Villanova. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks +8 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a huge comeback win over the Boston Celtics.  They beat the Hornets and Bucks in their previous 2 games as well and are in a prime letdown spot now against the Atlanta Hawks.  The 76ers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now because they are on a 6-game winning streak.  But the Hawks won’t go down without swinging, and they’ve shown that here down the stretch.  The Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They just upset the Jazz as nearly identical 7.5-point home dogs.  The 76ers are 7-19 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins this season.  The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Wofford/Kentucky Midwest Region *CA$H COW* on Wofford +5.5 

The Key: The Wofford Terriers showed why they were a Top 25 team coming into the tournament and why they were deserving of a good seed.  They destroyed Seton Hall 84-68, cooling off what had previously been a red hot Pirates team.  And now I look for them to upset Kentucky, which is still missing leading scorer PJ Washington and is very vulnerable without him.  Washington averages 14.8 PPG & 7.6 RPG while shooting 52% from the field and 42% from 3-point range.  Wofford is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games off an ATS win.  Take Wofford. 

6* Iona/UNC *CA$H COW* on UNC -22 

The Key: No analysis Friday. 

7* Colgate/Tennessee NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -17.5 

The Key: No analysis Friday. 

6* UC-Irvine/K-State *CA$H COW* on UC-Irvine +4.5 

The Key: No analysis Friday. 

7* Seton Hall/Wofford Midwest Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Wofford -2.5 

The Key: The Wofford Terriers are 29-4 this season and one of the best teams in the country that you haven’t heard about.  They’ll put their names on the map with a win and cover over Seton Hall Thursday.  The Terriers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Wofford. 

6* Fairleigh Dickinson/Gonzaga West Region *CA$H COW* on Gonzaga -28 

The Key: The loss to St. Mary’s in the WCC Championship will have awoken the sleeping giant Gonzaga Bulldogs.  They’ll keep their foot on the gas from start to finish here against Farleigh Dickinson, which is one of the worst teams in the NCAA Tournament field.  Farleigh Dickinson lost by 35 at Rutgers in non-conference, which is basically all you need to know about this team and what Gonzaga is capable of.  Take Gonzaga. 

6* Florida/Nevada West Region *CA$H COW* on Nevada -2.5 

The Key: Nevada has been going through the motions in the regular season while still posting a 29-4 record.  Now that the tournament is upon us, expect their ‘A Game’ starting with this showdown with Florida.  And their ‘A Game’ is good enough to beat anyone in the country.  This is a team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year and brought almost everyone back.  Nevada is 17-2 ATS in its lsat 19 games off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 points or more.  Florida is 0-7 ATS against teams who outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season.  Take Nevada. 

7* Heat/Spurs Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +6.5 

The Key: You’re definitely having to pay a tax to back the Spurs tonight after they have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  And this is a huge letdown spot for the Spurs, who are coming off an upset home win over the Warriors.  I look for them to come out flat tonight.  The Miami Heat are playing just as well as the Spurs right now.  The Heat are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their only losses coming to the Rockets, Raptors and Bucks.  The Heat are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 against southwest division teams, including 8-0 ATS against them this season.  Miami is 42-15-2 ATS in its last 59 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Miami. 

7* Dayton/Colorado ESPN 2 *BAILOUT* on Colorado -4 

The Key: The Colorado Buffaloes are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this season.  This is a long travel spot for the Dayton Flyers.  And the Buffaloes have been even better at home down the stretch, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Dayton is 1-8 ATS against good shooting teams that make 45% or better after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Colorado. 

6* Pacers/Clippers NBA TV *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -4.5 

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in a tough spot tonight.  They’ll be playing for a second consecutive day after a tough loss in Portland last night, 98-106.  Now they have to face a freight train in the Clippers, who are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and trying to hang on to the final playoff spot in the West.  Los Angeles is 24-11 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Indiana is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Wright State/Clemson NIT *CA$H COW* on Wright State +14 

The Key: Clemson thought they’d be going to the NCAA Tournament this season.  As a result, they’re disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  And I don’t think they should be laying 14 points to a game Wright State team that is happy to be here.  Wright State is 6-0 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Horizon League.  Take Wright State. 

7* Pacers/Blazers ESPN *BAILOUT* on Indiana +4.5 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers will be without CJ McCollum for the next week with a knee injury that he suffered last time out against the Spurs.  The Blazers are a much more pedestrian team when they are missing either McCollum or Lillard.  They go together like peanut butter and jelly.  The Pacers should be able to pull off the upset tonight.  The Pacers beat the Thunder two games back and only lost by 2 at Denver last time out, so they’ve shown they can play with the best the West has to offer.  Take Indiana. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings -6.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Michigan/MSU Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +1 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +9 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +2 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* SDSU/Utah State MWC *CA$H COW* on San Diego State +6.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* San Diego State/Nevada MWC *CA$H COW* on San Diego State +11 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* Auburn/South Carolina SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina +8 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Nebraska/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -8 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss -3.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation from Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* UConn/South Florida AAC *CA$H COW* on South Florida +2 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation from Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Arkansas/Florida SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -3 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation from Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* MEAC Game of the Year on NC A&T -5.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -1.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* Oklahoma State/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -4 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday.  

7* Blazers/Clippers NBA *BAILOUT* on Portland -2 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers come in on 2 days’ rest and will be ready to go against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their big win over Boston last night.  I’ll back the fresher team here in the Blazers to win and cover this late-night game Tuesday.  The Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Los Angeles.  Take Portland. 

7* Pepperdine/Gonzaga WCC *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -23.5 

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs just don’t have any let up in them.  And they won’t tonight as they’ve been off since March 2nd and will be hungry to hit the court for the WCC semifinals.  The Pepperdine Waves have been a great story, winning 3 games in 3 days, but their run comes to an end tonight in blowout fashion.  They already lost to the Bulldogs by 28 win their first meeting.  And now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 5 days, making this already difficult matchup that much more difficult.  Take Gonzaga. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on San Antonio Spurs -1.5 

The Key: The Spurs come in on 3 days’ rest and off 4 straight wins and covers.  The Bucks come in on the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days.  The situation really favors the Spurs, who are 25-7 at home this season.  Take San Antonio. 

7* SMU/South Florida AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on South Florida -2 

The Key: The South Florida Bulls are 14-4 at home this season.  It’s Senior Day and they will win this game against SMU, which just hasn’t played well at all here down the stretch in going 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  The Mustangs are also just 2-7 on the road this season.  Take South Florida. 

7* WCC Tournament Game of the Year on San Francisco -7.5 

The Key: No analysis for Saturday. 

6* Big East Game of the Day on Xavier -2.5 

The Key: No Analysis for Saturday. 

6* Pac-12 Game fo the Day on Arizona -1.5 

The Key: No Analysis for Saturday. 

7* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6.5 

The Key: The Nuggets are only one game behind the Warriors for first place in the Western Conference.  They face a Warriors team that is really struggling right now having lost 5 of their last 8.  The Warriors have killed bettors even worse, going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  DeMarcus Cousins is proving to be a bad fit because teams take advantage of his terrible defense, and the Nuggets will do the same tonight.  The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record.  Take Denver. 

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Drake -2.5 

The Key: The Drake Bulldogs (23-8) have been the single-most underrated team in college basketball this season.  They have the best ATS record (21-6-2) of any team in the country.  And now they’re only laying 2.5 points to Illinois State in the 2nd round of the MVC Tournament.  The Bulldogs got a bye yesterday, while Illinois State won a 5-point game over Evansville.  That extra rest the Bulldogs have will certainly work in their favor tonight.  Drake is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games.  Take Drake. 

7* Cincinnati/UCF AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on UCF -2 

The Key: The UCF Knights are coming on strong to close the season as they try to punch their tickets into the big dance.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Their only loss? A 55-60 setback at Cincinnati as 7.5-point dogs.  Well, they now get their chance to avenge that defeat tonight at home on Senior Night.  That’s why I’m not concerned about a possible letdown off their huge 69-64 upset win at Houston as 7-point dogs over the weekend.  They’ll get up for Cincinnati tonight.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, loving on the edge with 4 wins by 5 points or less.  Their luck runs out tonight against a UCF team that simply wants it more.  The Knights are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  UCF is 8-0 ATS after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in its last game over the last 2 seasons.  The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.  Take UCF Thursday. 

6* Oregon/Washington State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Oregon -6.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are coming off two straight blowout wins by 28 over Arizona State and by 26 over Arizona.  They should be able to go on the road and handle Washington State, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall losing by 13 at home to Utah, by 48 at Stanford and by 7 at lowly Cal.  Oregon already beat Washington State by 20 at home, which is another reason they should be able to cover 6.5 on the road.  The Ducks are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games off a conference home win.  The Cougars are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games off a loss.  Take Oregon. 

7* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Pelicans UNDER 230 

The Key: The Jazz and Pelicans just squared off two nights ago in Utah with the Pelicans pulling the 115-112 upset.  That game saw 227 combined points.  Now we have a total of 230 in the rematch, and I think it’s too high.  The 2nd meeting in these home-and-home situations is almost always lower scoring than the 1st because of the familiarity of the teams.  The same thing happens in the NBA playoffs, and it applies in the regular season as well.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 or more revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more against an opponent that’s off an upset win as an underdog are 34-9 over the last 5 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons -5 

The Key: The Detroit Pistons are rolling right now having won 9 of their last 11 with their only two losses coming on the road at San Antonio and Boston.  The Minnesota Timberwolves are just 9-24 on the road this season and 1-8 in their last 9 road games.  While the Pistons come in on 2 days’ rest, the Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pistons are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Timberwolves.  Take Detroit. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies +6 

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies have been a really tough out.  They beat the Mavs by 30 on the road and followed that up with only a 4-point road loss at OKC in which they blew a late lead.  And in their last 9 games, they have only been beaten by more than 6 points once.  That’s important considering this 6-point spread.  The first 2 lines in the first 2 meetings this season were Portland -5 at home and Memphis -3 at home.  Now Portland is a 6-point favorite at Memphis.  I like the price we are getting with the Grizzlies at home tonight.  Take Memphis. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +10.5 

The Key: The Boston College Eagles have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have won 3 straight home games, including an upset win over Louisville.  And they haven’t lost any of their last 6 home games by more than 6 points.  Now they’re catching 10.5 points at home against a UNC team that is primed for a letdown.  They will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against Duke this weekend.  Boston College is 7-0 ATS off a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Boston College. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Brooklyn Nets -4.5 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are in a critical stretch right now if they want to make the playoffs.  They have home games against the Mavs, Cavs, and Pistons as well as a road game at Atlanta in their next four games.  Then they’ll be going on a brutal 7-game road trip.  They need to win all 4 of these games, especially after losing 3 straight coming in.  It starts tonight against the Mavs, who are just 6-24 on the road this season.  The Mavs are also 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games coming in.  They’ve rarely even been competitive as all 6 losses came by 9 points or more.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* Northwestern/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -5 

The Key: Brad Underwood has done a tremendous job of keeping his team focused and playing hard here down the stretch trying to improve as a young squad.  The Fighting Illini had a lot of breaks not go their way in the first half of the season, but they’ve stuck with it and have now gone 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS in their last nine games overall in Big Ten play.  That includes wins over NCAA Tournament teams in Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State with two of those three on the road even.  Now they want to avenge their 66-68 loss at Northwestern in their first meeting this season.  They should be able to against a Wildcats team that is just ready for the season to be over.  They are 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a 12-point home loss to Minnesota on Thursday.  The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS off 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.  Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a double-digit home loss.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Illinois. 

6* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +13.5 

The Key: The Pelicans are now 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall after winning 130-116 in Phoenix last night.  That blowout allowed them to not play their starters too heavy of minutes, and they should still be fresh in Denver tonight.  Fresh enough to cover this huge 13.5-point spread as the Pelicans continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record.  Denver is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 against NBA Southwest teams.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Nuggets, not once losing by more than 6 points.  Take New Orleans. 

6* UNC/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Clemson +4.5 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament sitting at 17-11 this season.  They could really use a signature win at home here against No. 5 North Carolina.  Clemson is 12-3 SU at home this season and has played UNC very tough in recent meetings.  They pulled the 82-78 upset at home last year, only lost by 8 on the road, and lost by 3 at home in OT in their last 3 meetings with the Tar Heels.  Clemson is 11-2 ATS in home games off a win over the last 2 seasons.  The Tigers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Clemson. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama +2 

The Key: Alabama is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament at 17-11 on the season.  They picked up a big road win at South Carolina last time out, and now they could really use an upset victory over No. 13 LSU to really cement their place in the big dance.  That’s why I know we’re going to get a big effort from the Crimson Tide at home Saturday.  And they have been great at home this year, going 10-3 SU in their 13 home games.  Alabama is also 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with LSU.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with LSU.  Take Alabama. 

7* Clippers/Kings NBA *BAILOUT* on Sacramento -3.5 

The Key: The Kings are now 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  They have recently losses by 1 to Milwaukee, by 2 at Golden State and by 2 at Denver, as well as an upset win at Oklahoma City.  They have been through the gauntlet.  Now they face a lesser team in the Clippers who they are actually trailing in the playoff hunt, making this a must-win game for them at home tonight.  Expect them to give a big effort that should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS as home favorites this season. Sacramento is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games.  Take Sacramento.