Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

7* Blazers/Lakers Game 1 *BAILOUT* on Portland +6.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers just had a knack for playing in close games in the restart and that will continue in Game 1 tonight.  All 9 of their games were decided by 10 points or fewer, including 7 by 5 points or less.  They have an unstoppable offense that will challenge the Lakers, who are without 2 key defenders on the perimeter in Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo.  They’re going to have a very hard time matching up with Lillard and McCollum.  The Lakers went 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in the restart, and I have a hard time believing they can just flip a switch here in Game 1.  It’s going to take them a few games to gel, while the Blazers have already gelled as a team with all of the meaningful games they’ve played thus far.  The Blazers are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games off 3 straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Blazers are 46-22 ATS in the last 68 matchups.  Take Portland.

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -6

The Key: The Boston Celtics enter the playoffs fully healthy and ready to go for a title.  The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who lost Ben Simmons to a season-ending injury in the bubble and Joel Embiid is nursing a hand injury.  The Celtics will make easy work of the short-handed 76ers in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this year.  Philadelphia is 6-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2 years.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Boston.

7* NL East Game of the Month on Philadelphia Phillies -122

The Key: I always love the angle of the pitcher facing his former team for the first time.  That will be the case for Zack Wheeler of the Phillies up against the Mets Sunday.  Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 3 starts in 2020.  He’ll be opposed by Rick Porcello, who was terrible in Boston last year and hasn’t been any better for the Mets thus far.  Porcello is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 4 starts in 2020.  The Mets are 0-8 as underdogs of +100 to +150 this year.  The Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 home matchups with the Mets.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Blazers/Grizzlies *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 232

The Key: There’s always more defense played in playoff games.  And given what’s at stake here for these teams with win or go home for Memphis, defense will be played at a high level.  The 1st meeting between these teams this season saw just 215 combined points.  The 2nd meeting did have 275 combined points, but that was in overtime.  I think we see a similar result to the first meeting given the situation.  Memphis is 18-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 110+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Memphis is 12-1 UNDER in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+108)

The Key: Sonny Gray has been one of the top starters in the game over the last 2 years.  Gray is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 4 starts this year with 35 strikeouts in 24 innings.  That includes 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in 3 home starts.  Chad Kuhl will be making just his 2nd start of the year for the Pirates.  Kuhl is 18-20 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 64 games in MLB lifetime.  Gray is 14-1 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 years and the Reds are winning by 3.5 RPG.  Take Cincinnati on the Run Line.

7* Blazers/Nets TNT *BAILOUT* on Brooklyn +10

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are 5-2 since the restart and on the verge of making the playoffs, but those 5 wins all came by 10 points or less.  In fact, all 7 of their games have been decided by 10 points or less thus far.  Brooklyn is playing too well right now to be catching this many points.  The Nets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Three of those wins came against playoff teams with upsets over Milwaukee as 19-point dogs, the Clippers as 9-point dogs and the Magic as 4.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take Brooklyn.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -2

The Key: The situation is a much better one for the Miami Heat than it is for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  The Heat are almost at full strength with the exception of Kendrick Nunn.  The Thunder are without Schroder and likely to be without Gilgeous-Alexander, Adams and Gallinari again tonight.  The Heat should be much bigger favorites given their advantage in the health department.  The Thunder are likely to not take any chances here with their injured players.  Take Miami.

7* Blazers/Mavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -4.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in 9th place, but just a half-game ahead of both Phoenix and San Antonio.  Whoever finishes 8th and 9th will be in a playoff to be the 8th seed.  This game matters a lot more to Portland than it does Dallas, which all but appears locked into 7th.  And the Mavericks could be without both Doncic and Porzingis again tonight after both sat out last game for precautionary reasons.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and will continue their stellar play tonight as they make their push to make the playoffs.  Take Portland.

7* Raptors/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS since the restart and playing with a sense of urgency.  The Milwaukee Bucks already have the top seed in the East and are not playing with a sense of urgency at all.  The Bucks are just 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their 5 games since the restart.  Take Toronto.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies +7

The Key: No analysis Sunday.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -1.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz will be playing for a second consecutive day after falling 111-119 to San Antonio yesterday.  And it’s unsure whether Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Royce O’Neale will play today.  The Jazz are already without Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG.  They aren’t very deep and will struggle against the rested Nuggets, who had yesterday off.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take Denver.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The Key: The Pelicans are in must-win mode trying to make the playoffs in the West.  The Washington Wizards are 0-4 since the restart and won’t be making the playoffs.  They will find it hard to be motivated from here on out.  The Wizards have lost all 4 games by 8 points or more, and that’s all it will take for the Pelicans to cover this spread tonight.  Washington hasn’t even been competitive due to all of their injuries.  New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Wizards are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Key: I like the situation for the Blazers tonight.  They are pushing to make the playoffs and playing every game like a must-win.  The Denver Nuggets are just playing for playoff positioning.  And the Nuggets will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a tough 132-126 win over San Antonio last night, while Portland had yesterday off.  Take Portland.

7* Nets/Celtics ESPN *BAILOUT* on Boston -8.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets just pulled off the biggest upset in NBA history with their 119-116 win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 19-point dogs.  The Nets are down to the last players on their bench, and the Bucks were sitting starters at crucial points in the game because they already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up.  The Nets will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is an even worse situation for them than most teams given how short-handed they are.  And it’s a letdown spot off such a big win.  The Celtics will be focused after starting 1-2 out of the break with losses to Milwaukee by 7 and Miami by 6.  They are playing for playoff positioning and want to keep a Top 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee in the 2nd round.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Blazers TNT *BAILOUT* on Portland +4

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 2 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the West.  They need wins more than the Houston Rockets, who are simply playing for playoff positioning.  After 2 narrow wins by a combined 8 points in their last 2 games, the Rockets will run out of luck tonight.  The Blazers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Houston in 2020 with a 10-point win as 8.5-point dogs and a 13-point win as 5-point dogs.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  The Blazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Portland.

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -4.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Pelicans.  They have dropped their first 2 games back and sit 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed.  They have to be within 4 games of the 8th place team to get a play-in game.  They catch the Grizzlies at a good time as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be plenty rested after getting blown out by the Clippers on Saturday.  The Pelicans are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Memphis this year winning 126-116 and 139-111.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* Mavs/Suns NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +6

The Key: The Phoenix Suns need wins more right now as they are trying to stay alive for the 8th seed in the West.  The Dallas Mavericks are simply playing for playoff positioning.  The Suns looked great in their 125-112 win over Washington.  They had 6 players score in double figures in that win and play well together as a team.  And I like them to give the Mavericks a run for their money today.  The Suns won 133-104 as 7-point dogs in their last meeting at Dallas on January 28th.  Take Phoenix.

7* Jazz/Thunder NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -2

The Key: The Utah Jazz are without their 2nd-leading scorer in Bojan Bogdonavic, who averages over 20 PPG.  They were able to escape with a come from behind 106-104 win over the Pelicans in their opener.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Oakland City Thunder, who are fully healthy for the restart.  The Thunder are 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -2.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Jazz/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2 

The Key: The Pelicans won all 3 of their scrimmages and are now 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They are completely healthy and loaded for this restart.  The same cannot be said for the Jazz, who are without Bojan Bogdonovic (20.2 PPG) for the remainder of the season after he had wrist surgery in May.  The Pelicans need wins more as they are on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.  Take New Orleans. 

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Chicago White Sox -113 

The Key: The White Sox really need a win as they are just 1-4 while the Cleveland Indians are 4-1.  Ace Lucas Giolito is here to the rescue and is the much better starter in this matchup with Zach Plesac.  Giolito is 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Cleveland.  He has pitched 14 2/3 shutout innings in his last 2 starts against them with 17 K’s.  Plesac has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against them.  Take Chicago. 

7* National League Game of the Week Pittsburgh Pirates +155

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates want revenge after blowing a 5-1 lead in the 9th and losing in extras to the Brewers yesterday.  We are getting them at a tremendous price here Tuesday in Game 2 of this series.  Derek Holland has never lost to the Brewers as he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against them.  Josh Lindblom makes his return to the majors after spending the last few years in Korea.  He is 5-8 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.37 WHP lifetime in the majors.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-120)

The Key: Josh James is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 7 lifetime appearances against the Mariners.  Kendall Graveman will be making his first appearance since May 11, 2018 for the Mariners.  He went 1-5 with a 7.60 ERA in 2018.  The Astros are hitting .290 and scoring 7.0 RPG through 3 games this season behind one of the best lineups in MLB.  The Mariners are hitting .238 and scoring 3.7 RPG.  Seattle is 10-45 vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 RPG or more over the last 2 years.  It is losing by 2.4 RPG in this situation.  Take Houston on the Run Line.

7* Braves/Mets ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +102

The Key: The Braves should not be underdogs to the Mets today.  Rick Porcello went 14-12 with a 5.52 ERA with Boston in 2019 and is on the decline.  Sean Newcomb went 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA last year for the Braves.  Newcomb is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against the Mets.  Take Atlanta.

7* Saturday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 9.5

The Key: I definitely got robbed on the UNDER 8.5 yesterday in the Cardinals/Pirates game.  It was 3-0 going into the 7th inning and finished with 9 combined runs.  I’m back on the UNDER 9.5 today because the fact remains that these are two of the worst lineups in baseball, especially Pittsburgh.  Adam Wainwright has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his final 2 starts against the Pirates in 2019.  Trevor Williams gave up just 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his 2 starts against St. Louis in 2019.  Take the UNDER.

7* Friday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 8.5

The Key: The Pirates have arguably the worst lineup in baseball.  They aren’t going to contribute much to this total going up against Jack Flaherty.  Flaherty is 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against the Pirates.  Joe Musgrove appeared to fix some mechanical issues at the end of last season by going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA with 32 K’s over his final 5 starts of 2019.  The one weakness for the Cardinals is their lineup as it just hasn’t produced the last few years.  They are a perfect ‘under’ team and that will prove to be the case today.  Take the UNDER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be nearly double-digit underdogs to the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They beat Alabama 87-79 as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina 83-74 as 5-point home dogs to close out the season.  And they are now 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.  Arkansas is just 4-9 ATS on the highway this year and this will basically be a road game for the Razorbacks being played in Nashville.  The Razorbacks have lost 5 straight road games by 8, 10, 14, 21 and 4 points.  Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 75 or more points in 2 straight games.  They are yielding 88.7 PPG in their last 3 games and cannot be trusted to get enough stops defensively to cover this huge number.  Take Vanderbilt. 

7* Virginia Tech/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -4 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 4 games all by 6 points or more.  And they were competitive in their road loss at Duke over the weekend.  The Tar Heels are a dangerous team in this ACC Tournament because they finally have their best player in Cole Anthony healthy, who averages nearly 20 PPG.  They didn’t have Anthony when they lost 77-79 at Virginia Tech in their lone matchup this year.  They will avenge that loss in blowout fashion with Anthony this time.  The Hokies have lost 10 of their last 12 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  Take North Carolina. 

7* St. Mary’s/BYU WCC *BAILOUT* on OVER 145.5 

The Key: Books have made a big mistake and set this total lower than it should be tonight. The first 2 matchups between BYU and St. Mary’s were shootouts this season, and this one should fall in line as well.  They combined for 154 points at the end of regulation in their first matchup on January 9th and followed it up with a 160-point outburst in their rematch on January 1st.  BYU is averaging 83.1 PPG in conference play this year and has topped 80 points in 8 of its last 10 games overall.  St. Mary’s is scoring 77.4 PPG on the road this year and 83.4 PPG in their last 4 games overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in Gaels’ last 27 games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Gaels’ last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  Take the OVER.    

7* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -3.5 

The Key: Illinois wants to avenge its 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 at home this year and were are getting them very cheap tonight.  The home team has won and covered 4 straight matchups in this series.  The Hawkeyes are 2-7 SU in Big Ten road games this year with an average loss of over 12 PPG.  Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference home loss.  The Hawkeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a home loss.  Take Illinois. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Year on Missouri State -2.5 

The Key: The Missouri State Bears have a huge rest advantage over the Valparaiso Crusaders today.  They’ve only had to play one game in the MVC Tournament and just blitzed Indiana State 78-51 yesterday so they were able to rest their starters late.  Valpo has been in 2 dog fights with a 58-55 win over Evansville on Thursday and a 74-73 (OT) win over Loyola-Chicago Friday.  They used a ton of energy coming back from 14 points down at halftime against Loyola and obviously playing OT would have zapped even more energy out of them.  And Missouri State wants to avenge its 89-74 loss at Valpo on February 25th less than 2 weeks ago.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  Missouri State is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less.  The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their lat 10 games off a win by 10 points or more and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Valpo is 1-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 years.  Take Missouri State. 

7* Bucks/Lakers ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1 

The Key: The Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 games and are ready to take down the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight and avenge an earlier road defeat to them by 7 points.  We saw the Bucks struggle in their last 2 road games losing by 16 at Miami and failing to cover a huge spread at Charlotte in an 8-point win.  The Lakers come in on 2 days’ rest while the Bucks will be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days.  Bets against road underdogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 76-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska +17 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a nice bet on the road this season because they are consistently catching too many points and never quit.  Despite being just 2-11 SU in all games played away from home, the Huskers have gone 9-4 ATS.  They have only beaten beaten by more than 17 points on the road 3 times, and two of those were 19-point losses.  They have hung within 6 of Indiana, 5 of Northwestern, 12 of Ohio State, 3 of Rutgers, 2 of Maryland and 12 of Illinois in Big Ten road games this season.  Michigan was just upset at home by Wisconsin 74-81 and got blown out at Ohio State 63-77 in its last 2 games.  The Huskers are 7-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days this year.  The Huskers are 8-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this year.  Take Nebraska. 

7* Dayton/Rhode Island Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Rhode Island +4.5 

The Key: The Rhode Island Rams (20-8) are squarely on the bubble now after losing at home to a very good Saint Louis team on Sunday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against Dayton tonight.  They want to avenge their 67-81 road loss at Dayton in which they shot just 28.8% from the field and 20% from 3-point range.  They aren’t going to shoot that poorly again at home, where they are 12-2 SU this year.  Dayton has already wrapped up the Atlantic 10 and won’t be that hungry to beat Rhode Island for a 2nd time this year.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss.  The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss where the other team scored 75 points or more.  The Flyers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Rhode Island. 

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on Richmond -5.5 

The Key: The Richmond Spiders are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They can’t afford a slip up here down the stretch of the regular season.  Richmond is 22-7 on the season, 12-4 in conference play and 13-2 at home.  The Spiders went on the road and beat Davidson 70-64 in their first matchup.  They won’t have much of a problem winning by 6 points or more in the rematch at home.  Davidson just gave up 72.3% shooting to Dayton on the road Saturday and lost by 15.  They have a problem defending, which is not a problem Richmond has.  Davidson is 5-12 SU & 4-13 ATS in all road games this year.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road dog.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take Richmond. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Atlanta Hawks -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  That includes upset home wins over the Clippers, 76ers, Heat and Nets and also a win over the Mavericks.  They have a great home court edge as fans are excited to turn out to see Trey Young and company in action.  The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  This bad stretch can be attributed to injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, who combine to average 28.9 PPG & 10.5 RPG.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games losing by 17.8 PPG.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Minnesota/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -5 

The Key: No team is playing better than the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with road wins over Nebraska by 17 and Michigan by 7 as well as home wins over Ohio State by 13, Purdue by 4 and Rutgers by 8.  Now they want to avenge their 52-70 road loss at Minnesota as 1-point favorites on February 5th in the game that preceded this winning streak.  Wisconsin is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home matchups with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers led the entire way against Maryland last time out but lost on a last-second 3-pointer 73-74.  They have no chance of making the NCAA Tournament now and I question their motivation.  It’s always tough to come back from a last-second loss in a game you should have won.  Wisconsin is 13-1 SU at home this year while Minnesota is 2-8 SU in true road games.  The Gophers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC -3 

The Key: The USC Trojans are trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and have consistently been lacking respect from oddsmakers.  That showed Thursday when they upset Arizona 57-48 getting 4.5 points at home.  And they only lost by 2 at Arizona State in their first matchup.  USC is 12-2 at home this year and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  The Trojans have won 17 of their last 21 home matchups with Arizona State.  Take USC. 

7* Thunder/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -10.5 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since the break and showing no signs of slowing down.  They beat the Pistons by 20 on the road, the 76ers by 21 at home and the Raptors by 11 on the road.  The Bucks are 26-3 at home this year and will make easy work of a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team.  The Thunder will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They barely survived 112-108 at home over the Kings last night and won’t have much left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  Bets against road dogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Milwaukee. 

7* Arizona State/UCLA Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on UCLA -3.5 

The Key: The UCLA Bruins have improved rapidly in the first season under Mick Cronin and are now on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They get their next 2 games at home against ASU and Arizona and have a big opportunity to add some quality wins.  The Bruins are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They are looking to avenge one of their rare losses during this stretch February 6th at Arizona State.  UCLA has won 16 of its last 20 home matchups with the Sun Devils.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off a conference win.  Take UCLA. 

7* Rutgers/Penn State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State -5 

The Key: Penn State wants to avenge its road loss at Rutgers earlier this year.  The Nittany Lions also want to bounce back from 2 straight losses at home to Illinois and on the road to Indiana.  They had gone 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their previous 8 games in the most impressive stretch in the Big Ten this season, so they were due for a few bad games.  But they’ll get back on track tonight against a Rutgers team that is just 1-7 SU in true road games this year with he only win coming at lowly Nebraska.  The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS after playing a road game this year.  Take Penn State. 

7* American Athletic Game of the Year on SMU -4 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 14-1 at home this year and 6-0 at home in conference action.  Off 2 bad road losses in a row, the Mustangs will be hungry for a win when they host the Memphis Tigers Tuesday.  And I think it’s a bad spot for Memphis off their upset home win over Memphis.  They have won their last 2 games both at home by a combined 5 points.  Bets against underdogs off 2 consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against a team that is off a road loss by 20 points or more are 26-6 ATS since 1997.  The Mustangs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home matchups with Memphis.  Take SMU. 

7* Oklahoma State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State +14.5 

The Key: This game has letdown written all over it for Kansas.  The Jayhawks just went on the road and beat #1 Baylor in a 64-61 thriller to move into a first-place tie.  They won’t be able to get up for Oklahoma State, who they already beat by 15 on the road earlier this year.  This letdown situation won’t allow them to cover this lofty 14.5-point spread.  And the Cowboys are completely different team than the one that loss to Kansas on January 27th.  Oklahoma State is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall with its only losses coming on the road to Baylor by 8 and at WVU in a game they led at halftime.  They also upset Kansas State on the road, while beat TCU by 15, Texas Tech by 3 and Oklahoma by 17 at home.  Bets on dogs of 10 to 19.5 points that went under the total by 24 or more points in their last 3 games against an opponent that went under the total by 42 or more point sin their last 7 games are 59-16 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Oklahoma State. 

7* Rutgers/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -4.5 

The Key: This is about as easy as it gets.  Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this year while Rutgers is 1-8 in all road/neutral games.  The only road win for Rutgers this year came at lowly Nebraska.  The Badgers want to avenge their 65-72 road loss at Rutgers in their first matchup this season.  Rutgers is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games off 2 straight games where they attempted 12 or fewer free throws.  Wisconsin is 76-45 ATS in its last 121 home games off a home win.  The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina PK 

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are making their usual late-season push under head coach Frank Martin.  No team has improved more in the SEC as the season has gone on than the Gamecocks.  They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games while winning those 5 games by 14.6 PPG.  That includes an upset home win over Kentucky.  Now they host a struggling LSU team that has gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games with its only win coming by 4 points at home against Missouri as 11-point favorites.  They are coming off a home loss to Kentucky, and it’s going to be hard to get as motivated to face South Carolina tonight.  The Gamecocks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off a conference loss.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take South Carolina. 

7* VCU/Saint Louis Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Saint Louis +2 

The Key: The Saint Louis Billikens are 12-3 at home this year with all 3 losses to very good teams in Dayton, Seton Hall & Duquesne.  VCU is 4-6 in all road games this year and just lost to Rhode Island by 12 and Richmond by 18 in their last 2 road games.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  VCU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 this year.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as a dog.  Take Saint Louis. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Oregon State +11 

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are coming off a 22-point home loss to Colorado that has them lacking respect from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit dogs at Arizona.  The Beavers had won 3 of their previous 4 games including a road upset of Stanford and a home upset of Oregon.  They also beat Utah by 19.  We’ll chalk that Colorado loss up to a one-time stinker and not indicative of what this team is moving forward.  Arizona is getting too much respect off road wins and covers over Cal and Stanford.  Their last two home games they failed to cover, losing outright to UCLA 52-65 as 12.5-point favorites and narrowly beating USC 85-80 as 10-point favorites.  Oregon State beat Arizona 82-65 at home as 4-point dogs in their first matchup this year on January 12th.  The Beavers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games off 2 consecutive home games.  Arizona is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.  Oregon State is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games off an ATS loss.  Bets against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent that’s off a home blowout loss by 20 points or more are 42-15 ATS since 1997.  Take Oregon State. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech -3.5 

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies want to avenge their 61-71 loss at Miami on January 28th in their first matchup this year.  Miami is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 ACC road games losing by an average of a whopping 18.2 PPG.  Virginia Tech is 11-4 at home this year.  Miami is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after playing 2 consecutive games as a favorite.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -10.5 

The Key: West Virginia will be playing with a chip on its shoulder tonight.  The Mountaineers opened 18-4 this year but have now lost 3 straight games.  That’s easily explainable considering they faced the 2 best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor and also lost at Oklahoma.  Now they get to take one one of the worst teams in the conference in Oklahoma State to get back on track.  They already beat the Cowboys 55-41 on the road in their first matchup this year.  The Cowboys are just 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in Big 12 play this year.  The Mountaineers are 12-1 at home this year with their only loss coming after a big blown lead to Kansas late in the second half.  West Virginia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss.  The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Take West Virginia. 

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -16 

The Key: Iowa State has played 2 games since the season-ending injury to their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (15.2 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.9 RPG).  They lost by 29 at Oklahoma and beat Texas by 29 at home.  So which team can we expect from the Cyclones moving forward? I think it’s the one that lost by 29 to Oklahoma.  The Cyclones shot 57.1% against Texas and faced a Longhorns team missing several key players due to injury.  They simply aren’t better without Haliburton, one of the best players in the country, and that will show tonight at Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS in Big 12 play this year with their only loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 17-point home win over Oklahoma, which just beat Iowa State by 29.  And we can expect a 17-plus point victory tonight.  Kansas already won 79-53 at Iowa State in their first matchup this year.  The Cyclones are 2-10 ATS as underdogs this year.  The Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games when playing their 3rd game in a week.  The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year.  Iowa State is 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  The Jayhawks are 45-21-3 ATS in their last 69 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Kansas. 

7* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -5 

The Key: Minnesota has had over a week to prepare for Iowa having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only gets 2 days to prepare for Minnesota having last played on February 13th in a 77-89 road loss to Indiana.  The Hawkeyes have been atrocious on the road in conference play this season.  They are just 1-6 SU in Big Ten road games this year with their only win coming at Northwestern, which is 1-13 in conference play.  Minnesota is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this year.  They won’t have to face Iowa’s CJ Fredrick, who averages 10.7 PPG and is their best shooter hitting 46.7% from 3-point range.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Hawkeyes are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 road games.  The Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Year on Loyola-Chicago -1.5 

The Key: Loyola-Chicago is 6-0 at home in MVC play this year while winning by 14.5 PPG.  The Ramblers want to avenge their 62-67 (OT) loss at Northern Iowa on January 26th and stay alive for the MVC title.  This game means everything to them and we should see a big effort from them as a result.  Loyola-Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 matchups with Northern Iowa with both losses coming on the road in overtime.  The Ramblers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 home matchups with the Panthers.  The Ramblers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a road loss.  The Panthers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Saturday road games.  Take Loyola-Chicago. 

7* UIC/Wright State Horizon League *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois-Chicago +11 

The Key: Illinois-Chicago is really getting disrespected here as a double-digit underdog to Wright State tonight.  UIC is 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall with one of its losses coming by a single point.  That includes their 76-72 upset win as 6.5-point home dogs to Wright State in their first matchup this year on January 12th.  That makes UIC now 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last 3 meetings with Wright State despite being underdogs in all 3 matchups.  UIC is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in a week this year.  The Flames are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off an ATS win.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Illinois-Chicago Friday. 

7* Iowa/Indiana Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana -1.5 

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers are hungry for a win after dropping 4 straight against a tough schedule.  The Hoosiers are 12-3 at home this year and we are getting them at a great price against Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this year.  They even lost at Nebraska and their only win came against Northwestern, the two worst teams in the conference.  Iowa is 7-21 ATS in all road games over the last 3 years.  Take Indiana. 

7* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -5 

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats have lost a season-high 3 straight games to drop to 17-6 on the year.  They will be more hungry for a win tonight than at any other point this season because of it.  And they also want to avenge a 60-71 loss at Marquette in their first matchup this year on January 4th.  Villanova has won 11 of its last 13 home matchups with Marquette, including 6 straight home wins in this series by 6 points or more and by an average of 13.0 PPG.  Marquette has won 3 straight coming in and won’t be able to match the intensity of the Wildcats.  Villanova is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games after 15-plus games against good rebounding teams (+4 RPG or more).  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after 15-plus games against teams who average 6 steals/game or more.  The Wildcats are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games off a loss.  Take Villanova. 

7* Michigan State/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois +2 

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans continue getting more respect than they deserve from the books as road favorites over Illinois tonight.  The Spartans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They were upset on the road by both Wisconsin and Michigan, and they were also upset at home by Penn State as 8.5-point favorites.  Yes, the Spartans will be hungry for a win now, but they just aren’t that good.  Illinois will be hungry for a win as well after 2 straight losses to 2 of the best teams in the Big Ten in Iowa and Maryland.  They had won 7 straight games prior to those 2 defeats.  Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Illinois. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Indiana Pacers -6.5 

The Key: The Indiana Pacers will be hungry for a win after dropping 5 straight coming into this game.  They get to host the Brookyn Nets, a team they have handled over the last several years.  The Pacers are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 matchups with the Nets. Brooklyn is just 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games as a road dog.  Take Indiana. 

7* Notre Dame/Clemson ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson PK 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers have been a very tough out at home this year, especially in ACC play.  The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games which includes an upset win over Duke and solid wins over very good NC State and Syracuse teams.  Notre Dame has won 3 in a row but all 3 wins were at home and against suspect competition.  The Fighting Irish are just 2-5 in all games played away from home this year.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Clemson. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -2 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are in need of a win here after dropping 3 of their last 4.  But all 3 losses were on the road to Syracuse, Duke and Notre Dame and they were competitive in all 3.  Pitt is 10-4 at home this year and will handle Georgia Tech today.  The Yellow Jackets have won 3 of their last 4, but all 3 wins came at home.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -2 

The Key: Illinois is competing for a Big Ten regular season title this year thanks to winning 7 of their last 8 games overall.  And the Fighting Illini want to avenge their 58-59 loss at Maryland on December 7th where they blew a 14-point halftime lead.  We’re getting the Illini cheap at home tonight considering they are 12-1 at home this year, including 5-0 at home in Big Ten play.  Illinois gets more time to prepare for this game as well after playing on Sunday while Maryland just played on Tuesday.  The revenge, the extra rest and the big home court edge all add up to what should be a comfortable win for the Fighting Illini.  Take Illinois. 

7* USC/Arizona ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on USC +10 

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the USC Trojans tonight.  They are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in a 57-78 loss to Colorado.  I think we’re getting a few more points than we should on them now.  Arizona is coming off two straight impressive road wins over Washington and Washington State and you’re paying a tax on them now.  USC is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals.  Arizona is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games after having won 3 of its last 4 games.  USC is 8-2 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in road games against teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers this year.  USC is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take USC. 

7* Iowa/Purdue Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Purdue -4 

The Key: Purdue has gone 16-1 SU in its last 17 Big Ten home games and holds one of the best home-court advantages in the conference.  They beat Michigan State by 29 and Wisconsin by 19 at home this year.  Iowa is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Big Ten road games this year with losses to Michigan by 12, Penn State by 3, Nebraska by 6 as 8-point favorites and Maryland by 10.  Their lone road win came against Northwestern, which is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten.  Purdue is 13-4 SU & 10-7 ATS in its last 17 home matchups with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Iowa is 16-37-2 ATS in its last 55 road games against a team that wins more than 60% of their home games.  The Boilermakers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Purdue. 

7* Ohio State/Michigan Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan -2.5 

The Key: Ohio State is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Big Ten road games this year with those 4 losses all coming by 12 points or more.  Their only conference road win came at terrible Northwestern.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  Take Michigan. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas State +7.5 

The Key: Kansas State is 8-3 at home this year.  The Wildcats have been very impressive in their last 2 home games.  They beat West Virginia 84-67 as 7-point dogs and topped Oklahoma 61-53 as 2-point favorites.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games while playing about as difficult a schedule as you can play with WVU twice, Kansas, Alabama and Oklahoma.  They are now ready to try and take down the #1 team in the country in Baylor.  It will be a great atmosphere tonight and huge advantage for the Wildcats playing at home. Kansas State is 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 matchups with Baylor, so they match up well with the Bears because of their physicality.  Take Kansas State. 

7* 76ers/Heat NBA TV *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are just 2-9 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.  That includes losses at Atlanta by 10, Boston by 21, Toronto by 12, Dallas by 18, Houston by 10 and Indiana by 18.  They haven’t even been close in some of these games.  And now they travel again to Miami during Super Bowl week and all those distractions to face a Heat team that is 21-3 SU at home this year.  The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games following a road game.  The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games when trying to avenge a road loss.  Take Miami.   

7* 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +1.5 

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers are the most compete team in the NFL this season and certainly deserve their spot in the Super Bowl.  They are 15-3 on the year and those 3 losses all came on the final play of the game.  And they battled through injuries all season and are now as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the year.  They buried both the Vikings and Packers early with a 27-10 win over the Vikings and a 27-0 lead over the Packers.  They are 4th in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense this year.  They are 2nd in total defense this year.  They simply have no weaknesses.  The Chiefs have plenty of weaknesses that the 49ers can exploit.  Kansas City’s offensive line isn’t very good and won’t be able to handle the best D-Line in the NFL.  That’s going to make Mahomes’ job a lot harder as he faces San Francisco’s #1 ranked pass defense.  The Chiefs are weak defensively up the middle as they are 26th against the run and 28th in YPC (4.9) allowed.  The 49ers are 2nd in rushing offense and just rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 on the Packers, who rank similar to the Chiefs in run D stats.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning reocrd.  The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take San Francisco. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Mississippi State -5 

The Key: Mississippi State is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have gone 4-2 SU but 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.  Their only two losses both came on the road by a single point to LSU (59-60) and Oklahoma (62-63).  They also went on the road and beat Florida (78-71) as 6-point dogs.  And the Bulldogs are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home during this stretch with wins over Arkansas (77-70), Georgia (91-59) & Missouri (72-45) by an average of 22 PPG.  Now they’ll handle a down Tennessee team that just lost at home to Texas A&M (58-63) as 9.5-point favorites.  The home team has won 5 of the last 6 matchups.  The Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Mississippi State. 

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 

The Key: The Pelicans failed to win and cover in their first two games with Zion Williamson. But they have since acclimated to having him in the lineup and have been dominant.  They beat the Celtics 123-108 at home as 1.5-point favorites and the Cavaliers 125-111 on the road as 8.5-point favorites.  Now they come in on 2 days’ rest and ready to take down the Grizzlies, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Grizzlies will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. due to suspension and they certainly will miss him.  He averages 17.7 PPG.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.  New Orleans is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games overall.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Stanford -6.5 

The Key: Stanford is back home following a 3-game road trip where they lost their final 2 games by a combined 6 points.  They’re hungry and back home where they are 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this year with their only loss coming to Kansas.  Now they face a struggling Oregon State team that is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  They haven’t even been very competitive with 4 losses by 6 points or more, including a 20-point home loss to USC and a 13-point road loss at Washington State.  Stanford is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 matchups with Oregon State with all 4 wins by 9 points or more.  The Cardinal are 28-9 ATS in their last 37 home games.  Take Stanford. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington State +2.5 

The Key: Washington State is coming off 2 straight road losses and is now back home where it is 9-2 this season.  The Cougars have won their last 3 home games over UCLA, Oregon and Oregon State despite being underdogs in all 3.  And they won those 3 games all by 8 points or more.  Arizona State is coming off a huge 66-65 win over rival Arizona, setting the Sun Devils up for a letdown spot.  The Sun Devils are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as road favorites.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home underdogs.  Take Washington State. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Golden State Warriors +12 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are in a tough situation tonight.  They just beat the Lakers in upset fashion, so they won’t be nearly as hungry to face the lowly Warriors tonight.  And this is a fresh Warriors team that comes in on 3 days’ rest.  The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Golden State. 

7* NBA Situational Game of the Week on Miami Heat -6 

The Key: The Miami Heat have had the last 2 days off to rest and recover.  Now they host the Orlando Magic and are 20-2 at home this year.  The Magic don’t have the same rest luxury.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days rest, while the Magic are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on no rest.  Take Miami. 

7* Loyola-Chicago/Northern Iowa MVC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Iowa -4 

The Key: Northern Iowa lost both meetings with Loyola-Chicago by a single point last year. The Panthers want to avenge those losses and show that they are the new kings of the Missouri Valley with a win and cover Sunday.  Northern Iowa is 10-0 at home this year and winning by 15.4 PPG at home.  Loyola-Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Panthers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take Northern Iowa. 

7* Mavs/Jazz NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Jazz have won 18 of their last 20 games overall.  The Jazz are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games.  Utah is 6-0 SU in its last 6 home matchups with Dallas.  Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games.  Take Utah. 

7* MVC Game of the Month on Indiana State -2.5 

The Key: Indiana State is 7-0 at home this year and ready to take down Bradley.  The Braves have just 2 road wins this year over Missouri State and Evansville.  Indiana State has won 17 of its last 22 home matchups with Bradley.  The Braves could be without their top 2 scorers in Childs and Brown, who combine to average 28.4 PPG.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 60 points or less in their previous game.  Take Indiana State. 

7* Marquette/Butler Big East *HEAVY HITTER* on Butler -6 

The Key: The Butler Bulldogs opened 15-1 but have now lost 3 straight.  They’ll be hungry for a win tonight as they host the Marquette Golden Eagles.  Butler is 9-1 at home this year and winning by 18.0 PPG.  Marquette is 2-3 in true road games with losses to Wisconsin by 16, Creighton by 17 and Seton Hall by 14.  Butler is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home matchups with Marquette.  The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 years.  The Golden Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.  Take Butler. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 

The Key: The situation tonight favors the Cavaliers over the Wizards in a big way.  The Cavaliers are hungry for a win off 5 straight losses, but they’ve played 6 of their last 7 on the road.  They are rested and recovered by now having been off since Monday.  The Wizards are a tired team playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse is that they had to go to overtime against Miami last night.  They gave up 134 points to the Heat and are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after allowing at least 130 points.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -3.5 

The Key: The Pelicans are 10-4 SU & 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  And their 4 losses came to the Lakers, Clippers (by 3), Jazz (by 2) and Celtics.  And now the Pelicans get Zion Williamson making his season debut in what will be a tremendous atmosphere in New Orleans.  Plus Jrue Holiday just returned and scored 36 points in his first game back from injury in a 126-116 win at Memphis last time out.  The Spurs are 7-13 on the road this year.  San Antonio is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games off a win.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Purdue -5.5 

The Key: Purdue is 15-0 in its last 15 Big Ten home games and 6-0 in its last 6 home games against ranked teams.  The Boilermakers have had this game circled for a few weeks now because they already lost 37-63 at Illinois in their worst performance of the season.  Now they get the Fighting Illini at home where they have been unbeatable.  They just beat Michigan State by 29 in their last home game to flash their potential.  Purdue has won its last 7 home matchups with Illinois by 12.1 PPG.  The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a defeat.  Take Purdue. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Charlotte Hornets +4.5 

The Key: The Hornets have had the last 4 days off having last played on Wednesday.  The Magic will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 6th straight road game.  The situation really favors the Hornets, who needed the break after a very difficult schedule that has seen them be a dog of 6.5 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games.  Bets against any team that’s off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 38-14 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Charlotte. 

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -7 

The Key: The Chiefs dominated the first meeting with the Titans but found a way to lose 32-35.  That won’t happen again in the rematch, especially since it’s being played at Arrowhead Stadium.  And now the Chiefs feel invincible after coming back from 24-0 down to win 51-31 over the Texans last week.  The Chiefs outgained the Titans 530 to 371 in their first meeting.  Those kinds of numbers would usually result in a double-digit blowout.  The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall winning by 17 PPG.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Ohio State/Penn State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State +2 

The Key: Big Ten home teams have dominated.  The home teams are 36-6 SU and Penn State is a home underdog to Ohio State when they shouldn’t be today.  The Buckeyes are 0-3 in Big Ten road games while losing by 12.5 PPG.  Ohio State beat Penn State at home earlier this season, so that means the Nittany Lions are out for revenge.  They are also hungry for a win because they are coming off 3 straight losses.  Ohio State shot 54% from 3 in that first meeting with Penn State and that’s not going to happen again.  The Buckeyes are only shooting 29% from 3 in Big Ten road games this year.  The Buckeyes are 1-10 ATS in January games over the last 2 years.  The Nittany Lions are 14-3 ATS off 2 straight games with 12 or fewer assists over the last 3 years.  The Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog.  Take Penn State. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Heat/Thunder OVER 216 

The Key: With Stephen Adams knocked out of their last game with a knee injury in the first quarter, the Oklahoma City Thunder went on to lose to the Toronto Raptors 121-130 in a game that saw 251 combined points.  They have to go small ball without Adams, which favors the OVER.  The Heat are 8-0 OVER off a win by 6 points or less this year.  The OVER is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings with combined scores of 223 and 220 points.  Take the OVER. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans +5 

The Key: The Pelicans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Jazz have won 10 straight, but their closest win was a 128-126 victory at New Orleans just 10 days ago.  The Pelicans haven’t forgotten and will be hungry to avenge that defeat and end Utah’s winning streak.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Missouri State -2 

The Key: Bradley is without its best player in Elijah Childs.  The Braves have been able to weather the storm without him against a weak schedule by going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I think it’s time to fade them now in this tough situation on the road at Missouri State.  The Bears are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home matchups with Bradley.  The Bears are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Missouri State. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Brooklyn Nets +3.5 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are healthy for basically the first time this season.  It’s not wonder they have won impressively in their last two games to end a 7-game losing streak.  They upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and crushed the Hawks by 22 as 9-point home favorites.  Now they welcome the hot Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight and 14 of their last 15.  This just feels like a spot where the Jazz go down.  They were down by double-digits at halftime to the Wizards on the road last time out and came back.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Nets tonight.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3.5 to -3.5 after beating the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 24 points in their last game are 25-6 ATS since 1996.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* Clemson/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on LSU -5 

The Key: The LSU Tigers have an unstoppable offense and one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen in college football.  And their defense has been lights out down the stretch.  Clemson was fortunate to beat Ohio State and has played a much easier schedule than LSU this year.  The Tigers will have the home field edge with this game being played in New Orleans.  They cap off a tremendous season with a win and cover over Clemson Monday.  Take LSU. 

7* Seahawks/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -4 

The Key: No write up Sunday. On vacation. 

7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Vikings/49ers OVER 44 

The Key: No write up.  On vacation. 

7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Phoenix Suns -3 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are hungry for a win.  They had the last 2 days off and are primed for a big effort tonight against the Orlando Magic.  The Magic will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  Now they are without D.J. Augustin, Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu and could also be without Aaron Gordon, who is questionable with a calf injury.  The Suns are fully healthy outside role player Kaminski.  The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more.  Take Phoenix. 

7* Celtics/76ers Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -2 

The Key: The Celtics will be playing for a second straight night and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are starting to wear down as they lost at Washington as 9-point favorites and lost to the Spurs by 15 as home favorites.  The 76ers come in on 2 days rest and are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against the Celtics this year with wins at home and on the road.  The 76ers are 17-2 at home this season I like the price we are getting with them as only 2-point favorites.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Nuggets/Mavs ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -3 

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Dallas Mavericks as a short home favorite over the Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets have lost by 26 at Houston and by 14 at Washington as 13-point favorites in recent road games.  And I don’t expect them to hang with the Mavericks for four quarters tonight.  The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  The Mavericks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  The Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home matchups.  Take Dallas. 

7* Ohio State/Maryland Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland -2.5 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Maryland Terrapins are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Ohio State Buckeyes.  The Terrapins are 9-0 at home this year and just beat Indiana by 16 and Notre Dame by 21 recently at home.  Ohio State is not playing well. They lost by 8 on a neutral to West Virginia and were upset by Wisconsin as 7.5-point home favorites in their last 2 games.  Maryland won both meetings with Ohio State by 14 on the road and by 10 at home last year.  The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  The Terrapins are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home meetings with Ohio State.  Take Maryland. 

7* Miami (OH)/Lafayette Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Ohio +14 

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks are playing in just their 2nd bowl game in the last 9 years.  They only lost 16-17 to SEC power Mississippi State as 14-point dogs in their last bowl game in 2016.  And Chuck Martin really thrives in the role of the dog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  They came out of nowhere to win the MAC after upsetting Central Michigan in Detroit.  And Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as a dog as the coach of Miami.  Martin is 32-17 ATS as a dog as the coach of Miami overall.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL Wild Card Total of the Year on Seahawks/Eagles UNDER 45 

The Key: It’s hard to believe the books have set this total this high when you look at all the injuries to both offenses.  The Seahawks had Gordon suspended, are missing at least their top 2 running backs and could be without 2 starting offensive linemen.  Their offense has been broken in recent weeks because of it.  They scored 12 on the Rams, 13 on the Cardinals and 21 on the 49ers in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Eagles’ injury situation is worse.  They are without Lane Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and could be without Zach Ertz again this week.  I think we see a similar game to the 17-9 final for 26 combined points that the Eagles and Seahawks just played earlier this season.  I like that they’ve already played each other this year because that familiarity favors the defenses.  The Eagles are 9-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 2 years. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Eagles last 10 playoff home games and 16-5 UNDER int heir last 21 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bills/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -2.5 

The Key: We’re getting the Houston Texans pretty cheap here in a game they basically just have to win to cover at home.  The Bills haven’t done well when they have stepped up in class.  They are 1-4 against playoff teams this year with their only win coming against the Titans when Marcus Mariota was their quarterback.  The Texans have gone 3-3 against playoff teams with wins over the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans.  One of their losses was to the Titans when they rested their starters in Week 17.  They should be fresh and ready to go, plus they get back JJ Watt and a few others from injury that makes them a stronger team going into the playoffs.  Bets on teams when the line is +3 to -3 who are a good passing team at 6.7-7.3 YPA against an average passing team 5.9-6.7 YPA after gaining 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Houston. 

7* Big East Game of the Month on Seton Hall -6.5 

The Key: Suspensions and injuries have really decimated the Georgetown Hoyas.  It showed up in their 16-point loss against Providence last time out as they were without Mac McClung and his 15.5 PPG and could be without him again.  Seton Hall just got Myles Powell back from injury, a National Player of the Year candidate.  The Pirates swiftly beat DePaul 74-66 on the road.  They also recently beat Maryland as 7-point dogs at home without Powell, so they’ve shown they are more than just a one-trick pony.  The Pirates are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.  Take Seton Hall. 

7* Tennessee/Indiana Gator Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3 

The Key: There’s a huge difference in this game that should have Tennessee favored by more than 3 over Indiana.  The Vols have gone 4-5 against teams that are 6-6 or better this season.  The Hoosiers have gone 0-4 against teams that are 6-6 or better.  So as you can see, Tennessee played a very tough schedule compared to Indiana and actually beat 4 teams that were bowl eligible while Indiana went 0-4 against those teams.  The Vols are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off 2 consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with that one loss coming on the road at Alabama.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Baylor/Georgia Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -4 

The Key: This line has dropped enough to where there’s value on Georgia laying this small number.  They have the talent edge.  And I think they will learn from last year’s loss to Texas where they were upset as 13.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl.  They didn’t want to be playing in that game last year.  I think the fact that they were blown out by LSU in the SEC Championship makes it easier for them to accept their fate in the Sugar Bowl this year.  Baylor went to OT against Oklahoma with a chance to make the 4-team playoff.  I think that loss is a loss harder to get over than Georgia’s loss to LSU.  And we saw Oklahoma lose by 35 points and give up 7 straight touchdowns to open the game against LSU last week.  The Big 12 has not looked good with a 1-4 record in bowls thus far.  Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.  Georgia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS loss.  This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs being played in SEC country in New Orleans.  Take Georgia. 

7* Georgia State/Wyoming Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -7 

The Key: The difference between these 2 teams defensively is about as big a difference as you will see in bowl season.  Wyoming only gives up 17.8 PPG and Georgia State gives up 36.1 PPG.  I usually like to back the better defensive team in bowl games.  Wyoming is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games against Sun Bel Teams.  Georgia State hasn’t been the same since QB Dan Ellington tore his ACL.  Give him credit for playing through it, but he hasn’t been the same dual threat QB he was before the injury.  They lost 3 of their last 4 games by an average of 23.7 PPG.  Their only win was at home against South Alabama.  Georgia State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming.