Cappers Sports Picks

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks +10
The Key: Motivation will not be an issue for the Hawks, which check in off back-to-back defeats. Furthermore, they have lost each of the season's first three meetings with Miami. Not only will Atlanta be motivated, it will be rested and prepared. The Hawks have had 2 days to rest and prepare while Miami has had just 1. It is significant that Atlanta enters off a double-digit loss to Brooklyn. That's because it is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. It is also significant that the Hawks lost by double digits the last time they faced Miami. That's because they are on a 15-5 ATS run in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more. Miami was only favored by 6.5 points the last time it hosted Atlanta so the line has clearly been inflated due to Miami's win streak. Consider that the Heat are on a 5-17 ATS slide in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins. They have won these games on average but only by 2.6 points on average. Lastly, the road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points.

6* WCC Championship (ESPN) on Saint Mary's +6
The Key: Saint Mary's is getting what it wanted, another shot at Gonzaga. After playing the Bulldogs to a 5-point game on the road in the first meeting, the Gaels were blown out by 17 at home in the second meeting as the Zags were 9 of 17 from beyond the arc. Keep in mind they average just 6 3-point makes per game on the season. Prior to that defeat, St. Mary's had won or lost by less than 6 points in 6 of 8 meetings. Neutral count underdogs that are out for revenge for a double-digit defeat to an opponent, provided they check in off 3 straight wins over conference foes, are 41-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have been underdogs of 6.3 points on average but have lost by only 1.7 points on average. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (NBA TV) on Spurs -1.5
The Key: The Spurs will be lacking no motivation this evening. They are coming off their worst loss of the season and will also be out to avenge a 14-point loss at OKC in the most recent meeting. Consider that home teams that are out for revenge for a double-digit road loss, provided they check in off an upset loss of 15 points or more, are 17-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs don't have Tony Parker, but they have a huge advantage in terms of fresh legs. This will be OKCs 2nd game in as many days and 4th in 5 days while the Spurs have had 2 days off. Home favorites that are playing their 2nd game in 5 days and are matched up against a team playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Spurs are 13-4 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing on 2 days' rest. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers +6.5
The Key: The 76ers have been struggling, but I believe they will be lacking no motivation here. They will want to wash the sour taste of yesterday's 8-point loss to lowly Orlando out of their mouth as soon as possible. Plus, they have lost the season's first two meetings with Brooklyn, including a 20-point loss at home in the most recent meeting. Philly is a reliable 38-23 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 100 or more points on them under coach Collins. It has won these games by an average of .8 points. It is also 15-5 ATS under Collins when it checks in with 8 or more losses in its last 10 games. It has won by an average of 3.2 points in this spot. Also, the 76ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss while the Nets are 21-34 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS win. The Nets are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Philly and the points.

7* Conference Tourney *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland Eastern Shore +12
The Key: Maryland Eastern Shore just lost at Savannah State 71-54 Mar. 7. That was an unlined game but it's clear the books want the money coming in on Savannah State by setting a line this much lower than the margin in the first meeting. With that decisive win fresh in its mind, Savannah State won't be able to help but look ahead. Besides, history in on the side of the Hawks here when you consider that neutral court teams that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points, provided they check in off a road loss where they were held to less than 60 points, are 77-40 (65.8%) ATS since 1997. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by Frankie Allen are on a 16-5 ATS run in games played away from home against conference foes. The Tigers played just 4 lined games this season and were 1-3 ATS in those. They are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 lined contests. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -1
The Key: The Bucks are at a disadvantage here because their starting five logged 169.77 minutes last night against Golden State. They had three other bench players log 65.14 minutes. This is significant because the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Kings had yesterday off so they should be the fresher side. The Kings have quietly been playing good basketball at home. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home with solid wins over the Rockets and Jazz during this stretch. They also took the Spurs and Nuggets down to the wire during this run. The Kings are an impressive 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that sport a winning record while the Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that carry a winning percentage below .400. Lay the point.

7* Conference Tourney *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland -3
The Key: Oakland brought back four starters from a team that defeated IUPU Fort Wayne by double digits in both of last season's meetings. However, the Golden Grizzlies have lost both of this season's meetings by narrow margins. They lost the first meeting by six points because they were only 16 of 29 from the foul line. They lost the second meeting by only two points despite shooting only 38.7%. Prior to these losses, Oakland had won 10 straight in the series by an average of 10.0 points. Motivated by those defeats, I expect Oakland to continue its dominance of the Mastodons. It's tournament time, which means it's the Grizzlies' time. Oakland is 9-1 ATS all-time in conference tournament games under coach Greg Kampe. It has won these games by an average score of 74.5 to 67.8. It is also 10-1 ATS under Kampe in games when it is listed as a neutral floor favorite or pickem. It has won these contests by an average score of 84.5 to 68.5. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +6.5
The Key: Houston won at Golden State last night, but this is still a team that's only 14-20 on the road. The Rockets have been extremely overvalued on the road versus lesser competition this season. In fact, they are just 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. They have actually lost these games by an average of 2.4 points. The Rockets are a dismal 8-24 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Baylor +3.5
The Key: Anything is possible on selection Sunday so Baylor isn't about to pack it in, not when it has a chance to beat Kansas. The Jayhawks have been far from dominant on the road where they have been tested by everyone in the conference with the exception of Texas Tech. They even lost at lowly TCU so Baylor clearly has what it takes to knock of the Hawks in a season that has been filled with parody. Kansas won the first meeting, but Baylor is a reliable 63-50 ATS when out for revenge under coach Drew. It is also on an impressive 73-56 ATS run as an underdog. The Bears have lost their last two but are 41-18 ATS all-time under Drew when checking in off 2 or more consecutive losses. Take the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech +6.5
The Key: Texas can't be trusted laying this many points on the road, even against Texas Tech. The Longhorns are only 1-9 in true road games this season. Texas is also a soft 10-19 ATS when laying points over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS the last 2 seasons after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games (this trend excludes pushes). The Red Raiders will leave it all on the floor on senior day, especially after getting embarrassed by Kansas. Texas Tech is on an 11-2 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the number in 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take the points.

6* Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on George Washington +1
The Key: Dayton has been shooting out of its mind the last 5 games and is 4-1 during this stretch as a result. The hot shooting won't continue at George Washington as the Colonials have held their opponents to just 37.6% from the field at home this season. Dayton has struggled on the road where it has lost 7 of its last 8 SU and is on a 1-4 ATS slide. The Flyers check in off a win and cover but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team. The home side has won 5 in a row and 8 of 9. In terms of the line, the home team is on a 7-2 ATS run in the series. Take GW at home.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State -5.5
The Key: Off a poor showing at Iowa State, I expect the Cowboys to respond against a team they have owned at home. Oklahoma State is 7-1 in its last 8 at home against Kansas State. The Wildcats won the first meeting but home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a same-season loss, provided four starters returning from last season, are 111-73 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Cowboys have been terrific at home for a long time. They are on a 30-17 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem. They are also on a 19-6 ATS run in Saturday home games. Kansas State does an excellent job taking care of the basketball, but Oklahoma State has never lost at home under coach Ford in games that take place at least 15 games into the schedule versus teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. They are 7-0 ATS all-time in this spot with an average winning margin of 14.1 points. Lay the number.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* (CBS) on Kentucky +6.5
The Key: Kentucky has lost its last two but both of those came on the road. The Wildcats are a completely different team at home where they are 15-2 and have won their last 7. Florida hasn't been nearly as good on the road of late where it has lost its last 2 and 3 of its last 4. Florida won the first meeting but Calipari almost always gets his revenge. Consider that his teams are 34-12 ATS since 1997 when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 9.7 points. The Wildcats have won 5 of the last 6 meetings in the series overall and 5 straight at home. Take the points.

6* Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on Troy +3
The Key: Troy has lost both of this season's meetings and was spanked by 21 at FAU in the most recent meeting, but I expect the third time to be the charm. Troy is a strong 24-12 ATS all-time under coach Maestri when out for revenge for a double-digit loss to an opponent, including 12-4 ATS if the loss came by 20 points or more. The Trojans have lost their last five games, but they are 18-6 ATS under Maestri in games when they check in with a losing streak of at least 3 games. FAU has really struggled away from its home court. In fact, it has lost its last 6 games played away from home by an average of 9.7 points. It went 3-3 ATS in those games.Troy, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 played away from home. Take the points in this neutral court battle.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pistons +3.5
The Key: The Pistons have been struggling, but I don't think they are getting the respect they deserve at home against a Dallas squad that is only 10-21 on the road. While Detroit hasn't been able to break through often against quality competition, it has taken care of business against losing teams. In fact, the Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that have a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams that have a road winning percentage of less than .400. Detroit gave the Knicks all they wanted Wednesday while playing without Greg Monroe. Monroe is expected back tonight, which helps, but I like the Pistons catching points at home in this spot regardless.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bobcats +14.5
The Key: It's been another terrible season for the Bobcats, but this is a great spot for them. The Thunder just finished a stretch where they played the Nuggets, Clippers, Lakers and Knicks, and they have the Celtics and Spurs following this game. I believe they'll relax following such a high-intensity stretch, especially since a 114-69 win over the Bobcats in the first meeting will be in their mind. That loss was the worst in franchise history for the Bobcats and it will be out to save face here. Consider that double-digit underdogs that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 85 points, provided their opponent checks in off a win in a game they didn't cover, are 60-29 ATS since 1996. Also, the Thunder are a soft 5-16 ATS under coach Brooks when they check in off a close road win of 3 points or less. They have actually lost by an average score of 103.9 to 99.9 in these contests. The Thunder have been favored on the road by double digits just twice this season and lost straight up both times. Those losses came to Washington and Cleveland. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

6* WCC Tourney Bailout on Pepperdine +3
The Key: I'll back the Waves in what I believe to be their most motivated spot of the season. Pepperdine lost both regular season meetings and the conference tourney meeting with San Diego last season and is in danger of being swept in the same manner this season. It will do everything in its power to make sure that doesn't happen. There was nearly a month between the last regular season meeting and their tournament meeting last season and San Diego entered the tournament off a loss so it was very motivated. This time it's different as these two just met Saturday in their last regular season game. I believe playing so recently favors the Waves coming off a 7-point loss as they will be out for revenge. San Diego, which has now won 5 straight in the series, won't be able to help looking ahead to their next opponent. Consider that plays on any team that has been beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two teams that carry win percentages of 40% to 49%, are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting that San Diego is just 16-27 ATS all-time under coach Grier in games when the line is +3 to -3. It's lost these games by an average score of 67.0 to 63.3. Take the points.

7* WAC Game of the Year on New Mexico State -2
The Key: New Mexico State saw its seven-game winning streak in the series come to an end with a 9-point loss at Louisiana Tech, but I expect a different result this time around. The Aggies are 13-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to New Mexico - the 11th ranked team in the country. New Mexico State has never lost to Louisiana Tech at home since joining the WAC. It is a perfect 8-0 all-time with an average winning margin of 8.5 points. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on Nevada +9
The Key: Nevada has lost 5 in a row, but I like its chances on senior night against a New Mexico team with nothing to play for. The Lobos have already wrapped up the conference title. Besides, Nevada is a perfect 7-0 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1997. It has lost these games on average but only by 3.9 points. New Mexico won the first meeting by 13 but only led by two at the half and had a difficult time slowing down Malik Story and Deonte Burton, who combined for 33 points. The Wolf Pack are on a 44-23 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington State +3.5
The Key: After sweeping the season series from Arizona, the Bruins won't be able to help looking past a Washington State squad they have defeated eight consecutive times. The Cougars have lost 9 in a row, but have been competitive at home. They lost to Oregon by only 2 points in OT in their last home game. They have also been competitive at home against UCLA. They lost by just 3 points in last season's home meeting with the Bruins and by only 4 points in the 2011 home meeting. It bodes well for us that Washington State enters off a 4-point loss at Washington. That's because it is 8-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 73.2 to 60.8 in this spot. The Bruins are a soft 8-15 ATS as a favorite this season and 2-9 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. Lastly, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +3
The Key: I really like the Pistons at home tonight whether Carmelo Anthony suits up or not. The Knicks beat Cleveland Monday but needed 70 points from the bench to erase a 22-point deficit. That big come from behind win places them in a letdown spot here, especially since they host Oklahoma City tomorrow night and have won the season's first three meetings with Detroit decisively. The Knicks will be looking ahead to a matchup with a bigger fish. The Knicks are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. They have struggled when getting only a day of rest as they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Pistons, meanwhile, are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Lastly, it is certainly worth noting that the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Iowa State -3
The Key: Off back-to-back losses, including an ugly one at Oklahoma last time out, I expect Iowa State to bounce-back strong at home on senior night. The Cyclones are 15-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Kansas in OT in a game the officials cost them by blowing a call down the stretch. Oklahoma State won the first meeting by 2 points, but Iowa State is 13-5 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are also an awesome 40-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is just 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pickem under coach Ford. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Kings +5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for the Nuggets. They are coming off a big win over Atlanta last night, and they have the Clippers on deck. They'll be much more worried about their next one than a Sacramento squad they have defeated by 25 and 28 points this season. Those losses assure us the Kings will be motivated here. Plus, we can't forget that Sacramento is a solid 15-13 at home on the season while the Nuggets are just 13-19 on the road. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Also, they are 12-1 ATS all-time under coach Smart when out for revenge for two straight losses of 10 points or more to an opponent. They have lost on average in this spot but only by 3.5 points. Take the points.

7* C-USA Game of the Month on Marshall +6.5
The Key: Marshall was embarrassed 103-76 at Houston last time out. It was also humiliated 102-46 at Southern Miss Jan. 23. These losses put Marshall into its most motivated spot of the season. Plus, its level of motivation increases because this is the last home game of the year (senior night). There is a good chunk of history on our side as home teams that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to less than 50 points, provided they also check in off a road loss of 20 points or more, are 94-54 ATS since 1997. It is also worth noting that the Thundering Herd are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 20 points. While the Thundering Herd have taken their lumps on the road, they are an impressive 10-4 at home with 2 of the losses coming by 4 points or less. Southern Miss hasn't been the same force on the road. It's 4-2 in its last 6 road games but none of these wins came by more than 4 points. Teams headed up by coach Tom Herrion are 10-2 ATS all-time when coming off 2 straight losses against conference foes. They have responded to win by an average score of 74.3 to 67.4 in these games. Lastly, Marshall is 4-1 in the last 5 home meetings in the series with the lone loss coming by 5 points. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Bobcats +13
The Key: There is plenty of history supporting this play on the Bobcats. Right away I like the fact that road underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 12 or more of their last 15 games are 107-61 ATS since 1996. This system instantly tightens up to 40-16 ATS if the team is playing at least its 8th game in 14 days, which is the case. Additionally, underdogs of 10 of more points that are playing their third game in 4 days and have failed to cover the number in at least 8 of their last 10 games are 57-27 ATS since 1996. Underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and are up against an opponent that checks in off a cover are 159-96 ATS since 1996. This system tightens up to 26-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. These systems leave no doubt that the value lies with the Bobcats. Plus, it is also worth noting that the Blazers are a soft 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning percentage below .400. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Southern Utah +2.5
The Key: This is a difficult spot for Montana, which will be playing its second road game in three days and its fifth straight road game overall. The Grizzlies have to be feeling pretty road-weary by now. Plus, they enter off a hard-fought win over in-state rival Montana State, which puts them in a letdown spot here. Southern Utah hasn't played since last Thursday so it will be well rested and well prepared. Plus, it's the last home game of the season (senior night) for the Thunderbirds so I'm expecting one of their best efforts of the season. Southern Utah played Montana to a six-point game in the first meeting despite 21 turnovers and being outscored at the foul line by 26 points because of the slow pace Montana plays. It's easier to hang with teams like Montana that average few possessions, and I like Southern Utah's chances of pulling off the upset here if they can take better care of the basketball and limit the amount of times they send Montana to the line. Since committing 21 giveaways in the first matchup, the Thunderbirds have committed 14 or less in 10 of 11 games. Plus, they will make a conscious effort not to foul as much in this game. Southern Utah is 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played at least 15 games into the schedule versus half-court teams that average 53 shots or less per game. The Thunderbirds have won these games by an average of 10.0 points. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Timberwolves +10
The Key: The Heat were able to avenge a pair of 20-point losses to the Knicks with a huge come-from-behind victory in New York Sunday. However, that loss sets them up for a letdown in Minnesota where the T-Wolves have quietly been competitive. The Wolves have won or lost by 10 points or less in each of their last seven home games while playing good opponents like the Spurs and Knicks during this stretch. The Heat have not been a good investment following a game where the key guys log a lot of minutes. In fact, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are even on a 1-6 ATS skid in road games versus teams that have a losing record at home. The Wolves were kicked last time out but typically bounce-back strong, as evidence by the fact they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss of more than 10 points. In addition, underdogs of 10 or more points that have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games and are up against a team that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 67-35 ATS the last 5 seasons. Underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten against the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they carry a winning percentage of 25% to 40%, are 27-10 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lastly, underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, provided they carry a winning percentage of 25% to 40%, are 32-15 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Hawks +6
The Key: Like clockwork, the Lakers are being overvalued yet again following a win. LA rolled Minnesota by 22 last time out and this line is being inflated as a result. Ask yourself if the Lakers should be laying this many points against a team with 4 more wins that has victories against the Thunder (on the road), Pacers, Clippers, Nuggets, Grizzlies (on the road), Bulls and Celtics. The Lakers are a soft 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS win, and fading them following a cover is 16-5 ATS under D'Antoni. LA is also just 11-23 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and I expect them to give LA all it wants and more here.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston College +5
The Key: Off Thursday's huge win over Duke, I expect Virginia to suffer a letdown here. Plus, nothing has come easy for the Cavs away from home where they are 2-5 in ACC play. It is worth noting that they are even on a 9-21 ATS slide in road games when playing against teams that have a losing record. They have won these games on average but only by 2.7 points. While we find Virginia in a letdown spot, Boston College will be in extreme bounce-back mode following back-to-back double-digit losses on the road. The Eagles will be happy to be back home where they have won 2 straight and have played Duke and Miami to 1-point games. The Eagles will be further motivated by an 65-51 loss at Virginia in the first meeting. That loss actually bodes well for us as Boston College is 9-1 ATS all-time under Steve Donahue in home games when out for revenge for a loss where it was held to less than 60 points. The Eagles have had their revenge by an average of 1.0 point in this situation. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (ABC) on Heat -4.5
The Key: The Miami Heat have lost each of the season's first two meetings with the Knicks by 20 points. You know that's not sitting well with the reigning champs. Those defeats place the Heat in arguably their most motivated spot of the entire season. In addition, these two haven't met since Dec. 6 and a lot has changed since then. The Knicks have come back down to earth while the Heat have regained their championship form. The Heat have won 13 in a row and are a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road during this stretch with marquee double-digit wins at OKC and Chicago. The Knicks are just 3-4 in their last 7, including 0-4 ATS at home during this stretch with one of the losses coming via blowout to the Clippers. Miami has been blowing out good teams on the road while the Knicks were blown out at home by the best team they've faced recently. Miami is in better form and will be extremely hungry. Lay the points.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* (ESPN2) on Auburn +2
The Key: Auburn has been plain bad in its last two games at Ole Miss and Alabama. It was outrebounded by double digits in both and managed no more than 55 points in either. These are just the type of teams I like to back. Back home, hungry to get back in the win column and to avenge a double-digit loss at Vandy, Auburn will show up in a big way. The Tigers are on a 19-8 ATS run in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They are also on an 11-1 ATS run following 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference foes. Auburn is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Barbee in home games after being held to 60 points or less in 2 straight games. It has won by an average score of 65.3 to 62.1 in this situation. It is also on an 8-0 ATS run after 2 straight games of being outrebounded by 10 or more. It has won by an average score of 68.7 to 62.8 in this spot.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Raptors +5.5
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats and further fueled by 8 straight losses to the Bucks, the Raptors will have no trouble getting up for this one. Milwaukee has won its last two but neither win came by more than 5 points. In fact, the Bucks haven't recorded a win of more than 5 points since Feb. 2. It is also worth noting that each of their last six games have been decided by 5 or less so I'm liking the 5.5 on our side. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games. The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Lastly, the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar Annihilator on Tennessee State pk
The Key: After back-to-back upset losses at home to Loyola-MD and Morehead State, you can bet Tennessee State will be hungry. It's senior night, and the Tigers will be motivated to close out the regular season strong. Prior to those two defeats, Tennessee State was a perfect 10-0 at home where it pounded first place Belmont 80-69. Belmont won both meetings with Eastern Kentucky, which gives you a better idea of just how impressive that win was. Let me put it this way. If the Tigers can take care of Belmont at home, they can take care of Eastern Kentucky. The home team has dominated this series winning each of the past five meetings by an average of 9.4 points. Take Tennessee State.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* (ESPN2) on Baylor -2.5
The Key: Baylor is on Joe Lunardi's first four out list, which means it needs a big win in the worst way. K-State rolled in the first meeting, but I'm expecting a very different result this time around given Baylor's heightened sense of desperation. K-State hasn't been a quality road investment, especially on Saturday. In fact, the Wildcats are a soft 6-15 ATS in Saturday road games the last 3 seasons. They are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games overall. It also bodes well for us that K-State enters off a 20-point win over Texas Tech where it held the Red Raiders to only 55 points. That's because the Wildcats are 3-11 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 55 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Duke -6.5
The Key: Off a loss at Virginia and out for revenge for an ugly 27-point loss at Miami, Duke will be ready to go this evening. The Blue Devils have struggled on the road, but they have been completely dominant inside Cameron where they are 14-0 with a 20-point average margin of victory. Miami has had an extra day to gear up for this one, but consider that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for an upset loss on the road, provided they are playing their 2nd game in 3 days, are 68-34 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 6.9 points on average and have won by an average of 9.5 points. Also, Duke is an impressive 17-7 ATS all-time under Coach K in home games when playing with one or less days' rest. It has won by 27.6 points on average in this situation. Lay the points.

6* Rivalry Game of the Week on Mississippi State +12.5
The Key: It's been a miserable season for Mississippi State, which has been absolutely embarrassed in its last two games. However, nothing gets the juices flowing like a good old fashioned rivalry game. I'm confident the Bulldogs will show up at home against the in-state rivals. Mississippi State was hammered 93-75 at Ole Miss, but the Bulldogs are on an 11-3 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent in which they gave up 75 points or more. The Rebels haven't been the same team on the road where they are even 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus teams that have a losing home record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the rebels are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Mississippi St. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on George Washington +6.5
The Key: St. Louis is long overdue for a letdown. It has won 10 in a row SU and ATS and is being overvalued as a result. Consider that plays against favorites that check in with 9 or more consecutive wins, provided they have won 80% or more of their games on the season, are 337-240 ATS the last 5 seasons. George Washington has had a rough season, but it has still been very competitive at home where it played K-State to a 3-point game, Temple to a 2-point game and Butler to a 3-point game. I love GW's chances of taking St. Louis down to the wire as well given its strong history at home in the series. The Colonials have never lost to St. Louis at home since the Billikens joined the A-10. They are a perfect 4-0 with an average winning margin of 11.3 points. Furthermore, the home team has never lost since these two started facing off in A-10 action. It's a perfect 8-0 with an average winning margin of 13.3 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -8
The Key: Not only will Miami be the fresher side, it will be the hungrier side. The Heat have had 2 full days of rest while the Grizzlies have had just 1. Miami has lost two straight to Memphis going back to last season, including an embarrassing 18-point defeat in this season's prior meeting, so it will be out to make a major statement here. The Heat have been deadly of late when rested. In fact, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest. They have also shown they can rise to the occasion against quality competition, as evidence by the fact they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings, and the Grizzlies are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Miami. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics -4
The Key: Boston will be the much fresher team tonight as it hasn't played since Monday. It doesn't play again until Tuesday so I'm expecting a great effort tonight. This will be Golden State's 4th road game in 6 days so I have to question how much it will have left in the tank. The Celtics have been outstanding at home where they are 7-0 in their last 7 with an average winning margin of 8.9 points. They have also been strong versus the Warriors at home where they are 4-0 in their last 4 with an average winning margin or 12.3 points. Golden State has really struggled on the road where it has dropped 7 of its last 8. The 7 losses have come by an average of 16.0 points and all of them came by at least 4. Lay the number.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Princeton -5.5
The Key: This is basically a must-win game for Princeton as it trails Harvard by 1.5 games in the Ivy League race with only five left. A win here and the Tigers are right back in the business. A loss and they can likely kiss their season goodbye. Harvard won the first meeting by 12 at home, but that shouldn't come as much of a surprise as the home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. The home team has won the last five by 7.2 points on average and Princeton won by 8 at home last season so I feel we are getting decent line value here. In addition, Harvard hasn't won at Princeton since 1989. The Tigers are 23-0 in their last 23 at home in the series. They have won the last 15 by an average score of 67 to 55. Lay the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Troy +13.5
The Key: Troy was hammered by 52 in the season's first meeting. That's the type of loss you just can't forget about no matter how hard you try. There's only one way to erase a memory like that. Troy will have a tough time getting it done tonight, but I fully expect it to leave it all on the floor to keep this one within the number. Going back to 2006, Troy hasn't lost by more than 10 points at home in 8 meetings with MTSU. In addition, the Trojans are a reliable 10-2 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. The Blue Raiders are coming off a very satisfying 41-point win but are 0-6 ATS this season in road games following a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent. They have won by only 2.1 points on average in this spot. Take the points.

6* Super System Smoker on IUPUI +2
The Key: South Dakota enters off a very satisfying upset win at Montana State that ended a six-game losing streak. That win will make it easy to look past an IUPUI squad that has lost 13 in a row, especially since it defeated the Jaguars by 20 in the season's first meeting. That lopsided of a matchup came as a big surprise to oddsmakers who had set the line as a pickem. Now, with South Dakota laying just 2 on the road, it's clear the books aren't sold on the Coyotes. I'm not either as they are just 3-10 on the road this season and lost by 18 in last season's meeting at IUPUI. Consider that underdogs that are out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, provided the game features two teams with winning percentages of 20% to 40%, are 169-107 ATS since 1997. This system tightens up to 60-35 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take IUPUI.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +3
The Key: Clemson isn't getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers here. The Tigers are 4-2 in their last 6 at home with the two losses coming by just 1 and 2 points, respectively, to NC State and Miami. If the Tigers can take Miami down to the wire, they can certainly hang with the Heels. Clemson has shown it can hang with Carolina at home as it is 1-2 in the last 3 home meetings with both losses coming by only 2 points. The Tar Heels have won 3 in a row but are just 8-18 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Clemson has dropped its last 2 but is on a 58-35 ATS run after 2 or more consecutive losses. Its double-digit loss at Maryland last time out is significant because it is on a 33-14 ATS run in home games after a loss by 10 points or more. It has won by an average score of 72.5 to 66.2 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on USC +7
The Key: Since winning 4 straight from Jan. 30 to Feb. 14, the Trojans have dropped back-to-back games. These losses and an embarrassing 24-point loss at Arizona in the season's first meeting assure us that USC will be ready to go. The Trojans took it on the chin last time out against a UCLA squad that was out for revenge. However, they are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Wildcats are a soft 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, and it bodes well for us that they enter off a home win against Washington State. That's because they are a poor 6-21 ATS all-time under coach Miller off a home win against a conference rival. Lastly, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Jazz -4.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats to the Clippers and Celtics, and with last month's 8-point loss in Atlanta also stoking the fire, expect Utah to take care of business on its home floor tonight. Atlanta has won 3 in a row, but wins over the Kings, Bucks and Pistons don't mean much. The Jazz are 21-7 at home where they have wins over the Nuggets, Spurs, Heat, Pacers and Thunder. If the Jazz can polish off these teams, they can certainly handle the Hawks in what is a highly motivate spot. The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is on a 59-84 ATS slide as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points and a 7-21 ATS skid after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Lastly, the favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Illinois State -11.5
The Key: Since winning 7 of 8 from Jan. 20 to Feb. 13, Illinois State has dropped 3 in a row SU and ATS. However, its senior night and the Redbirds haven't forgotten about the 62-55 loss they suffered at Missouri State earlier this season. I expect Illinois State to be highly motivated in this spot, and the numbers support my claim. Consider that home favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off 2 or more consecutive upset losses, provided they have a winning percentage of 45-55%, are 26-6 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 13.6 points on average and have won by an average of 19.8 points. Lay the number.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +19
The Key: Mississippi State was clubbed 72-31 by Vandy last time, and I expect it to respond. Kentucky, on the other hand, checks in off a big overtime win against Missouri. This young Wildcats squad has lacked focus all season, and I expect no different here, especially after such a big victory. Plays against home teams favorites or pickems that average 74-78 ppg and are up against a team that averages 63 or less ppg, provided they scored 80 points or more last time out, are 56-19 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on February underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game are 104-57 ATS since 1997. Lastly, UK is just 28-40 ATS under coach Cal as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio -3.5
The Key: At home where its 15-1, motivated by an ugly 19-point loss at Belmont last time out and out for revenge for a 14-point loss at Akron in the season's first meeting, Ohio will show up in a big way tonight. Ohio can pull into a first place tie with Akron with a win, and that's the ultimate motivation. It bodes well for us that Ohio checks in off a loss as it is on a 58-34 ATS run in home games following 1 or more consecutive losses. Also, the Bobcats are on a 44-24 ATS run as a home favorite of 6 points or less or a pickem. They are on a 25-10 ATS run in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent where they allowed 75 points or more. Ohio is also on a 42-25 ATS run when looking for revenge for a double-digit loss to an opponent, a 42-22 ATS run when out for revenge for a same-season loss to a foe and a 38-19 ATS run when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. Lastly, the home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -5
The Key: This is a big letdown spot for Wake Forest following Saturday's upset win over Miami. Meanwhile, this is a big bounce-back spot for FSU following back-to-back double-digit defeats. This is also a major revenge spot for the Seminoles, who were embarrassed at Wake earlier this month. Consider that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for an upset loss on the road, provided they are playing this second game in three days, are 67-34 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.9 points and have won by an average of 9.5. In addition, FSU is on a 17-4 ATS run after 2 consecutive losses of 10 points or more. It is also on a 10-2 ATS run in home games following 2 or more consecutive losses on the road. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +10
The Key: The 76ers have gone from a double-digit dog (Sunday at NY) to a double-digit favorite, and I believe it's too big of a jump. The Magic are certainly struggling, but so are the 76ers, who haven't won by double digits very many times this season. One of their double-digit wins did come against Orlando, who scored only 61 points on 27 of 80 shooting (1 of 12 from 3-point range). That was arguably Orlando's worst showing of the season, and it will be very motivated here as a result. Philly played the Knicks tough and covered the number last time out but is a soft 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win. The schedule isn't on its side here either as this will be its third game in four days. Orlando, on the other hand, has had two days of rest so it should be the fresher team. Also, consider that road underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 12 or more of their last 15 games are 106-61 ATS since 1996. February road dogs that check in off five or more consecutive losses are 34-14 ATS the last five seasons. The Magic are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home, 43-21-2 ATS in their last 66 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia. Take the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +6.5
The Key: Minnesota has been blown out by Iowa and Ohio State in its last two games but both of those were on the road in a span of four days. Now, the Golden Gophers are at home where they're 13-2 and have had five full days to prepare. Minnesota has typically responded impressively following an ugly loss as long as it is at home. In fact, it is on a 16-6 ATS run in home games following a loss of 15 points or more, winning by an average score of 72.1 to 65.0 in these contests. Also, Tubby Smith has proven that he can get his teams ready to play when he has adequate time. Consider that his teams are on a 35-19 ATS run when having had five or six days of preparation time. Minnesota played Indiana to a seven-point game in the first meeting despite the Hoosiers shooting 51% from the field and going to the foul line 40 times. The Gophers are the size and athletes to match up with Indiana on the defensive end. I'm taking the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz -6.5
The Key: This is a terrible scheduling spot for Boston, which will be playing its fifth road game in seven days. Utah, which will be playing just its third game in seven days, will be the much fresher side. The Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games. They are 4-13 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons and 6-16 ATS on the road when playing the second game of a back-to-back. While Boston has struggled on the road, Utah has been lights out at home where it is 21-6 on the season. The Jazz are 37-24 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons, 13-4 ATS in home games against non-conference opponents during this span and 23-10 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread during this stretch. The Jazz were handled by the Clippers Saturday but are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Seton Hall +4.5
The Key: Seton Hall has lost its last nine but is in prime position to get off the snide tonight. Villanova checks in off a big win over Marquette Saturday, and it will be difficult for it to focus on the task at hand with Pitt and Georgetown on deck. First off, the Wildcats are just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Secondly, nothing has come easy for the Wildcats on the road in this series. Seton Hall has won or lost by four points or less in two straight and 7 of the last 9 home meetings with Villanova. Both teams have had just one day to prepare but the numbers tells us the advantage lies with Seton Hall, which is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Willard in home games when playing with one or no days of rest. The Pirates have won by an average score of 79.0 to 60.0 in these contests. That wide of a margin isn't likely here but an outright win is well within the cards.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pistons +3
The Key: After being embarrassed by Indiana Friday and Saturday, I expect the Pistons to respond tonight. Atlanta has won back-to-back games and four of its last five, but these wins have come against Dallas, Orlando, Sacramento and Milwaukee. In other words, the Hawks are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for wins that aren't overly impressive. As a 1.5-point dog, Detroit won 85-84 at home against the Hawks Jan. 4. Looking back further, the Pistons have won two straight and 12 of the last 15 at home in the series. The Hawks are just 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Detroit. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Trailblazers -2
The Key: Portland has lost seven in a row but six of those came on the road. Now it's back home where it is 17-9 and I expect it to get off the snide against the road-weary Celtics. This will be Boston's fourth road game in six days, and that has to be wearing on a team that is just 9-17 on the road this season. Portland, meanwhile, is playing just its second game in five days so it should definitely be the fresher side. The Celtics check in off a blowout win at Phoenix but are 11-23 ATS the last three seasons after a blowout win by 15 points or more. They are 5-15 ATS during this span when off a road win of 10 points or more. Lay the small number with Portland.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Timberwolves +1.5
The Key: Off Friday's big home win over San Antonio, expect the Warriors to suffer a letdown on the road where they are on an 0-5 SU and ATS slide. Minnesota was pounded by Oklahoma City in its last game, and it has lost each of the season's first two meetings with Golden State so it will be lacking no motivation. The Warriors are a soft 6-17 ATS in road games the last three seasons when checking in off two or more consecutive wins. They are an even softer 0-7 ATS this season in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. They have lost by a whopping 13.8 points on average in this situation. Take the Timberwolves.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +3.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses to Georgetown and UConn and further fueled by a six-point loss to the Irish in the season's first meeting, Cincinnati will be ready to go this afternoon. The Bearcats have been rock solid outside their home gym all season with wins over Iowa State, Oregon, Xavier and Pitt. The Bearcats even played Syracuse to a two-point game on the road so I have no doubt they can hang here. Notre Dame hasn't been as dominant on its home floor as we are used to seeing and is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games as a result. It has two losses during this stretch and no win of more than five points so it's not putting its opponents away. The Bearcats are 7-0 ATS the last three seasons after failing to cover the number in four of their last five games. Also, they are 8-0 ATS the last two seasons in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. They have won these contests by an average of 8.6 points. Lastly, the Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Take the points.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on DePaul +5.5
The Key: Off a big win over Cincy and with a big one against Georgetown on deck, UConn will pay no mind to a DePaul squad it defeated by 21 last month. As it that loss doesn't provide enough motivation, DePaul was routed 90-66 at Georgetown in its last game. It will be out to save face here, and I believe it gets it done by taking the Huskies down to the wire. The Blue Demons are 12-3 ATS over the lasyt two seasons after a loss by 10 points or more. Plus, they are 9-1 ATS all-time under coach Purnell in home games when matched up against a good team that carries a winning percentage of .600 to .800. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +3.5
The Key: Detroit has lost each of the season's first three meetings with the Pacers with each loss coming by double digits. The Pistons were completely and utterly humiliated (114-82) at Indiana last night, and I expect them to do something about it here. The Pacers have cruised to a pair of blowout victories since the All-Star Break, but both of those were at home. They haven't been the same team on the road where they have dropped four of six with a loss to lowly Orlando during this stretch. Plus, the Pacers are just 2-12 ATS since 1996 in road games following 2 straight blowout wins of 15 points or more. Detroit, on the other hand, is 18-6 ATS in home games the last three seasons after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Tennessee Chattanooga +5.5
The Key: Off an emotional one-point win at Samford Thursday and with a big showdown against Davidson on deck, Elon finds itself caught in a sandwich spot. Elon beat the Mocs by 24 earlier this season so it won't be giving them its full attention. Chat is an impressive 13-5 ATS under coach Shulman in home games when looking for revenge for a loss to an opponent that dropped 85 points or more on them. Elon has had trouble pulling away on the road in conference play and is 0-7 ATS the last two seasons in February road contests. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon State +1.5
The Key: This is a huge letdown spot for Cal, which will be playing its second road game in three days and is coming off a big upset win over Oregon. This is a big bounce-back spot for Oregon State following back-to-back defeats. The Beavers will also have revenge on the brain having lost by three at Cal last month. Oregon State is an awesome 6-0 ATS this season when it checks in off two consecutive losses to conference foes. It is also a rock solid 13-5 ATS all-time under coach Robinson when checking in off a home loss of 10 points or more. The Beavers have won three of their last four at home against Cal with these wins coming by 7, 16 and 11 points. Bet the Beavers.

6* MWC Game of the Week on Nevada +14.5
The Key: Nevada fits into a terrific system that tells us to take road underdogs of 10 or more points that are looking for revenge for a double-digit home loss to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a home win of 10 points or more. This system is 120-67 (64.2%) ATS the last five seasons. It is also very significant that Nevada was upset by Fresno State last game. That's because it is 15-1 ATS since 1997 in road games following an upset loss to a conference foe. It is also worth noting that Nevada is 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when it checks in off a loss of six points or less. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trailblazers +9
The Key: The Lakers are being overvalued here following their decisive win over Boston. We are getting additional line value because the Blazers have lost their last six. Consider that road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points are 31-10 ATS the last 5 seasons provided they check in with 6 or more consecutive defeats and the game takes place in the second half of the season. The public loves the Lakers and books love to take advantage of that by jacking up their lines, especially after a big win. As a result, the Lakers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games following a win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Blazers have been struggling on the defensive end and have been struggling to keep teams off the board. However, the Lakers are 0-8 ATS in home games in the second half of the season the L3 seasons versus poor defensive teams that allow their opponents to shoot 46% or better. The Lakers have defeated these teams on average but only by 4.0 points. Also, Portland is 8-0 ATS in the second half of the season the L3 seasons versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game. The Blazers have actually defeated these foes by an average of 7.1 points. The Trailblazers are 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, and the underdog is 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -1.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Rockets as they head out on the road, where they are only 11-18, following a big revenge win against the Thunder. The Nets, who are 20-10 at home, are playing well and will be hungry to avenge last month's loss in Houston. The Nets are a reliable 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Brooklyn has also been a fantastic investment when entering with momentum on its side. It is 13-5 ATS when checking in with 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Rockets have not been playing good defense. They have managed to outscore teams but will have a tough time doing that against a Brooklyn squad that ranks in the top 5 in scoring defense. Consider that Houston is 3-15 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brown +7
The Key: Off a big win over Princeton and with a big rivalry game at Yale tomorrow, Harvard won't be able to help but look ahead. Brown, meanwhile, will be extremely focused on the task at hand. It has lost 7 straight in the series and will leave it all on the floor in order to give itself a chance to end the skid. Harvard has rattled off back-to-back wins in conference play, but that bodes well for us as it is just 1-10 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference foes over the last 2 seasons. It has won by 0.9 points on average in this spot. Also, the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Crimson are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Brown. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs +3.5
The Key: The Spurs have owned the Clippers over the years. In fact, they are 52-13 against the Clipps since 1996, including 24-8 on the road during this span. San Antonio is looking to make one more run at a championship with its current nucleus and the Clippers appear to be one of the teams standing in their way. LA has won the season's first two matchups so I expect the Spurs to treat this one like Game 7 of Finals. They'll be out to make a statement to the Clippers that they're not all washed up yet. The Spurs are on an impressive 23-10 ATS run when out for revenge for an upset defeat to a foe. They have won by an average score of 102.5 to 94.8 in these games. They are also on a 34-19 ATS run when out for revenge for two straight upset losses to a foe. They have won by an average score of 97.2 to 90.1 in this spot. The Spurs are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Oregon -5
The Key: To say this is a game Oregon wants badly is an understatement. The Ducks have lost 10 straight to Cal, including a 4-point road loss earlier this month. I am confident Oregon is the better team. It's at home and it will leave it all on the floor to end its skid against the Golden Bears. The Ducks had 22 turnovers in the first meeting (6 more than their season average), they made only 2 three-point shots (3 less than their season average) and they were just 12 of 19 from the foul line (they average 16 of 22). I'll be shocked if Oregon performs as poorly in those 3 areas again. Just doing a better job of taking care of the basketball will give it an excellent opportunity to cover the number. Consider that plays on a team that is out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that held it to less than 60 points, provided it is coming off a close road win of 3 points or less, are 70-30 ATS the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS this season. Also, teams headed up by Dana Altman are on an impressive 42-24 ATS run when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +8.5
The Key: Off a big revenge win at home against Ohio State, I expect Wisconsin to come out flat on the road this evening. The Badgers haven't been reliable on the road where they are on a 2-6-1 ATS slide. It is also worth noting that they haven't won by more than 6 points on the road this season. The Wildcats have dropped three straight and have failed to cover the number in 4 of their last 6. They are being undervalued as a result. This team played Indiana to an 8-point game at home and beat Minnesota so it can certainly hang. The Wildcats are 37-13 ATS under coach Carmody after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 game, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Magic +11
The Key: It's common for teams to be rusty in their first game back from the All-Star break. The Magic certainly looked rusty last night when they lost to lowly Charlotte. That loss actually serves us well as they will be hungry because of it and have had a game to shake off the rust. This is Dallas' first game back and it will have a tough time stretching this one out. Of the 9 NBA games that took place last night, the home team won by double-digits in just one of them. The road team won 6 of them straight up. And, the road team covered the number in 7 of the 9 matchups. This just goes to show you the way the books like to overvalue the home side following the break. Consider that plays on any cold team that has failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of its last 15 games, providing it is up against an opponent that has covered the number in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games, are 61-26 ATS since 1996. Orlando is 13-4 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Also, teams headed up by Rick Carlisle are just 26-52 ATS all-time as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take the points.

7* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on SIU Edwardsville +7
The Key: SIU Edwardsville isn't getting the respect it deserves here. The Cougars are 8-4 at home where they defeated Ohio Valley West division leader Murray State, and they return four starters from a team that played Tennessee State to a three-point game on the road last year. The Cougars suffered a letdown following their win over Murray State, losing by double digits at home to Austin Peay. That bad loss and the fact that this is their last home game of the season assures us that they will be motivated. SIU Edwardsville is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Forester when checking in off a loss of 10 points or more to a conference foe. It is also 6-0 ATS all-time under Forrester after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game. Tennessee State is just 4-10 on the road this season and finds itself in a letdown spot following a big win over Belmont. Take the points.

6* Missouri Valley Conference *CA$H COW* on Drake -4
The Key: Drake lost by 10 at Bradley in the season's first matchup. However, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent, provided they return four starters, are 105-67 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 5.9 points on average and have won by an average of 7.5 points. The Bulldogs have dropped 5 of their last 7, but that bodes well for us considering they are 19-6 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games under coach Phelps. They are 9-1 ATS in this spot the last 3 seasons. Drake has won 2 straight at home against Bradley by at least 6 points. Plus, it defeated the Braves by at least 7 points in all 3 of last season's meetings. Take Drake in this revenge spot.

6* Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Knicks +3.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats as well as a five-point loss in Indiana last month, expect the Knicks to take care of business here. The Knicks have been an extremely valuable underdog. In fact, they are 51-30 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. In addition, New York is an outstanding 29-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less during this span. Indiana has been good at home this season but it should be noted that it is only 9-21 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Missouri +5
The Key: Mizzou isn't getting the respect it deserves here. The Tigers were crushed by 31 in the season's first meeting, but they are a completely different team at Mizzou Arena where they are 14-0 this season, 29-1 under Frank Haith and 81-4 the last 5 seasons. Plus, that ugly loss assures us that they will be hungry and focused. Mizzou hasn't faced an opponent of Florida's caliber at home this season but proved it can rise to the occasion last year when it defeated No. 8 Kansas and No. 6 Baylor. Florida has been rolling along but showed it can be had with an 11-point loss at Arkansas. Keep in mind that Mizzou just played the Razorbacks to a 2-point game on the road. Take the Tigers and the points as they take Florida right down to the wire.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets -8
The Key: The All-Star break couldn't have come at a better time for Denver, which saw its 9-game win streak come to an end with 3 consecutive losses on the road in a span of 4 days. One of those was a 4-point loss at Boston in a game that went into triple-OT. Denver will certainly be motivated to return the favor. The break came at a bad time for Boston which had won 8 of 9 since learning the Rondo would miss the remainder of the season. The break brings an end to the momentum the Celtics had going while it gives the Nuggets time to regroup. 7 of Boston's last 8 wins have come at home. It is not the same team on the road where it is on a 1-4 ATS slide. It is also 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 17-8 ATS in home games this season and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. They are also 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest and 30-14 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are on a 21-35 ATS slide when playing with 3 or more days' rest. Denver is 51-33 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points under coach Karl. Also, the home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Celtics are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets have won 3 in a row at home against the Celtics and 2 of those came by 9 points or more. Lay the points.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on Seton Hall +6
The Key: The Golden Eagles aren't the same team on the road where they are 2-5, averaging 59.3 points and shooting just 40.3 percent from the field. Off a big win over Pitt and with a big game at Villanova on deck, I expect Marquette to look right past a Seton Hall squad that has lost 7 in a row. Marquette lost by 13 the last time it visited Seton Hall, and it won by a single point the time before that. It will have to earn this one. The Pirates have been better than most with the tough Saturday-Tuesday turnaround. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS when playing on Tuesday night the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average score of 73.7 to 59.5. It is also worth noting that they are an impressive 14-4 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. They have won these contests by an average score of 68.2 to 65.6. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rutgers +10.5
The Key: Rutgers lost at DePaul Saturday, and it lost leading scorer Eli Carter to a right knee injury in that game. However, I expect the Scarlet Knights to rally in wake of Carter's injury. They were blown out by 21 by Villanova in last season's Big East Tournament, and that loss will provide plenty of motivation here. Villanova is coming off a big win at Connecticut Saturday, and I'm expecting a letdown from it here. Consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points that have covered the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and are playing with one or no days of rest are 83-47 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points in the month of February that are playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 101-48 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, Nova is 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons when matched up against teams that carry a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. The Wildcats have lost to these foes by an average of 3.7 points. Take the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Clemson +6.5
The Key: Miami is 11-0 in conference play and is being overvalued on the road because of it. The Hurricanes have won by more than 6 points just once in their last four road games. They won two of those games by only one point. Clemson has been extremely competitive at home where it is 4-2 in conference play. Neither of the losses came by more than 5 points. This series has been very close. In fact, the Tigers have won or lost by fewer than 4 points in each of the last 9 meetings. That's a 9-0 trend I can get behind. In terms of the spread, the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Arizona -9
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect this talented Arizona team to take its frustrations out all over an inferior Utah squad. The Utes have been blown out at home by USC and Stanford so it is no stretch to think the Wildcats can run up the score as well. The Wildcats won the first meeting by only 3 points but that further assures us that they will show up. Prior to that win, they had won 4 straight in the series by at least 9 points. They are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings, winning them by an average of 14.3 points. The Wildcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Wildcats had a miserable first half at Colorado last time out as they were held to just 23 points. This is significant because they are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after being held to 25 points or less in the first half last game. Also, the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Expect Arizona to jump all over Utah early in this one.

7* Big East *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on South Florida +14
The Key: The value lies with South Florida here. The Bulls have lost 7 in a row and were defeated by 26 by Louisville in the season's first meeting. We are getting a great number with the home team as a result. The Bulls have been no pushover at home where they are 8-6 with a win over Georgetown. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points that check in with 7 or more consecutive losses, provided they are playing just their 2nd game in 8 days, are 164-99 ATS since 1997. Also, playing underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have been beaten against the spread by 48 points or more in their last ten games are 79-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 13.6 points on average but have lost by only 10.9 points on average. Lastly, South Florida is an awesome 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 65.3 to 60.0 in this situation.

6* NCAAB Bailout on San Jose State +12
The Key: Off Thursday's big win at Utah State, I expect Denver to get caught looking right past a team it defeated by 36 in the season's first meeting. Consider that plays against favorites that are off 2 straight wins against conference foes and are matched up against a team off 2 consecutive home defeats of 10 points or more are 54-23 ATS since 1997. Now that's a time-tested 70.1% system I can get behind. SJSU is in the midst of a 9-game losing streak but it has been showing signs of life lately. In fact, three of the Spartans' last 4 losses have come by 10 points or less. Denver is not the same team on the road where it is on a 30-45 ATS slide. Take the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* (BTN) on Nebraska +9.5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Michigan State. The Spartans check in off a big win over Michigan, and they have Indiana on deck. They only defeated Nebraska by 10 points at home in the season's first meeting and will have a very difficult time getting there in what figures to be a flat spot for them. Consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points that check in off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference rival and are up against an opponent that is off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 79-43 ATS the last 5 seasons. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS following a loss to a conference foe this season. Plus, its head man, Tim Miles, has a proven track record in revenge spots. His teams are 23-10 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to less than 60 points. His teams have lost by only 1.9 points on average in this situation. Take the points.

7* MVC Game of the Year on Drake +3
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats, and with an embarrassing 30-point loss at Northern Iowa also stoking the fire, Drake will be ready to roll tonight. The Bulldogs have Northern Iowa right where they want it as the Panthers enter off a huge win over Creighton. Riding high off that victory, I believe they are in for a major letdown. UNI has not been the same team on the road where it is 2-5 in its last 7 with only one of these wins coming by more than 3 points. Drake, meanwhile, has been plenty dangerous at home where it has wins over Creighton and Indiana State - two teams tied for second in the Valley ahead of UNI. The Panthers are just 7-18 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 3-13 ATS as a road favorite or pickem over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record. Lastly, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Drake.

6* Southern Conference *CA$H COW* on The Citadel +19.5
The Key: Davidson is coming off a big win over College Charleston, and I expect it to get caught looking past a Citadel squad it defeated by 32 a month ago. Consider that plays against any team that has covered the spread in 2 consecutive games as a favorite and is matched up against a foe that checks in off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more are 25-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Davidson has been susceptible on the road where it is even 5-14 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record the last 3 seasons. It is on a 9-19 ATS slide as a road favorite or pickem. The Wildcats have been solid on the defensive end throughout the season, but Citadel has never lost in this situation against good defensive teams under Chuck Driesell. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS all-time when at least 15 games into the schedule under his watch when matched up against teams that allow 64 points or less per game. Cit has actually managed to hold its own versus these teams and has edged them by .3 points on average. Take the points.

6* WCC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +12.5
The Key: Off Thursday's huge win at Saint Mary's, I'm expecting a letdown from Gonzaga this afternoon. Plus, San Francisco will be hungry after being upset at home by Portland. Consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off a win of 15 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that's off a loss of 3 points or more are 113-65 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Gonzaga is only 4-13 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. The Dons have been undervalued all season, especially against quality competition. They are 10-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season as a result. Even more impressively, they are 6-0 ATS this season when up against excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and hold their opponents to 42% shooting or worse. Take the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Purdue +19
The Key: Off back-to-back double-digit losses, including a 20-point defeat at Illinois last time out, Purdue will be ready to go this afternoon. A 37-point home to Indiana earlier this season certainly adds fuel to the fire. With a big showdown at Michigan State on deck, I don't expect Indiana to give the Boilermakers its full attention. Consider that underdogs of 10 or more points that check in off a loss of 20 points or more in conference play and are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent are 80-43 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, Purdue is 12-4 ATS all-time under coach Painter when listed as an underdog of 10 or more points. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland State +5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including a humiliating 30-point loss at Detroit last time out, I expect Cleveland State to leave it all on the floor tonight. The Vikings will be further motivated by an ugly 27-point loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay in the season's first meeting. The Phoenix check in off an upset win over Detroit but are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Cleveland State is a rock solid 8-3 at home while Green Bay is just 2-9 on the road. This is significant because the Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games overall, and the home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The home team has won each of the last 4 and 11 of the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* (ESPNU) on Penn State +8
The Key: The Nittany Lions are 0-11 in Big Ten play, and with two games against Michigan remaining, as well as games at Illinois, at Minnesota, at Northwestern and against Wisconsin, they are in danger of getting shut out. This is likely the most winnable game left on the schedule, and I expect them to go after in with ferocity. Iowa has lost its last 4 on the road and is 1-6 in true road games this season. It has also dropped its last 5 at Penn State. The Hawkeyes check in off a much-needed win against Northwestern but are on a 21-37 ATS slide in road games off a home win by 10 points or more. Also, Penn State is a near-perfect 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 61.3 to 57.3 in this spot. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -4.5
The Key: Motivated by Tuesday's double-digit loss at Utah and further fueled by a 6-point loss at Miami in the season's first meeting, expect the Thunder to have a small measure of revenge against the team that beat them in last year's Finals. Consider that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a road loss of 10 points or more, provided they have won 60 or more of their games on the season, are 264-184 ATS since 1996. That's a 59% success rate over a 17-year span. The Thunder are 9-1 ATS this season following an upset loss. They are also on a 10-2 ATS run in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. In addition, they are 7-0 ATS in home games this season when checking in with wins in 4 of their last 5 games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Lastly, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the points.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -4.5
The Key: Following an improbable win over Michigan in a game it trailed by 3 points with 2.4 seconds left, Wisconsin is primed for a letdown. Minnesota, on the other hand, will be in bounce-back mode following back-to-back defeats. It will also be out for revenge for a 1-point loss at Wisconsin in the season's first meeting. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), are 112-65 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Wisconsin is only 1-9 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Minnesota has been taking fantastic care of the basketball, which is a good sign because that means it's not beating itself. Wisconsin isn't very aggressive defensively and doesn't force many turnovers so I expect Minnesota to operate smoothly on the offensive end tonight. Plus, the Gophers are 7-0 ATS all-time under Tubby Smith when checking into a matchup following 5 straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers. The Gophers have won by an average score of 77.3 to 59.4 in this situation. Lay the points.

6* MWC *CA$H COW* on Air Force +3
The Key: Expect a letdown from UNLV on the road tonight following Saturday's big win over New Mexico. Air Force, meanwhile, will be in bounce-back mode following back-to-back losses. It will also be revenge-minded having lost the season's first meeting at UNLV in OT. The Runnin' Rebels can't be trusted on the road where they have lost 3 in a row and 5 of 6. The Rebs are just 3-17 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons and 1-11 ATS as a road favorite or pickem during this span. In addition, UNLV is on a 0-6 ATS slide in road games that take place at least 15 games into the season versus good shooting teams that make 45% of their attempts or more. It is also on a 0-8 ATS skid in road games versus slow-tempo teams that average 53 shots or fewer per game. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves -2
The Key: The Jazz are just 9-18 on the road, and I expect their road struggles to continue here. Off last night's huge win against the Thunder, I believe they'll go into All-Star Break mode early. The Jazz are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest, 5-14 ATS as a road underdog this season and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Utah won the season's first meeting handily (by 22) but teams headed up by Rick Adelman are on a 30-13 ATS run when out for revenge for a road blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. Lastly, the home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Florida State +6.5
The Key: As if Saturday's 71-46 loss at Wake Forest doesn't provide enough motivation, Florida State was kicked 71-47 at Miami in the season's first meetings. The Seminoles will be out for some serious revenge tonight. Consider that home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that held them to less than 50 points, provided they are also off a road loss of 20 points or more, are 93-51 ATS since 1997. In addition, the Noles are 29-15 ATS all-time under coach Hamilton when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. It is also worth noting that FSU is 21-10 ATS under Hamilton as a home underdog or pickem. Miami hasn't been as dominant on the road where it has a loss at Florida Gulf Coast. Each of its last four road wins have come by single digits, and two of its last three have come by a single point. One of the one-point road wins came against Boston College, which is currently tied for last in the ACC with a 2-8 record. If Boston College can give Miami a game, I have no doubt Florida State can as well. Outside of a loss to Duke, the Seminoles have been competitive at home in ACC play. They are 2-1 in their other three conference home games with wins over Clemson and Maryland and a five-point loss to North Carolina. Last but not least, FSU is a 100% perfect 6-0 in its last 6 home games in the series. Take the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* (ESPNU) on Texas Tech +12.5
The Key: Oklahoma State checks in off a double-digit win at Texas but is a poor 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Texas Tech was smoked at Baylor last time out (75-48) and it was also smoked by Oklahoma State in the season's first meeting (79-45). The Red Raiders will be extremely motivated as a result. Consider that plays on home teams that are coming off a road defeat of 20 points or more and are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that held them to fewer than 50 points are 93-51 ATS since 1997. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +6
The Key: Utah is tough as nails on its home floor, and it will be hungry to end a two-game slide tonight. It will also be motivated by a 12-point loss at Oklahoma City in the season's first meeting. It's been a while since the Thunder have played a high-intensity game as they check in off four consecutive blowouts. Plus, I believe they'll be looking ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Heat, which beat them in last season's Finals and in this season's first meeting. Home underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 4 of their last 5 games that are matched up against a team that has covered the spread in 6 or 7 of its last 8 games are 31-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have caught 5.4 points on average but have won outright by an average of 1.8. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech +14.5
The Key: Virginia Tech will have no problem getting up for this rivalry showdown because it was defeated by 16 at home in the season's first meeting. While it will be tough for the Hokies to come away with a win, I like their chances of keeping this one close throughout. After all, we had seen six straight games decided by 7 points or less in this series prior to the season's first meeting. The Cavs have only had a day to digest their big win at Maryland, and I don't believe that's enough time. Plus, plays against favorites of 10 or more points that have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, provided they are playing with one or less days' rest, are 82-44 ATS the last 5 seasons. VA Tech is a reliable 10-2 ATS in the road underdog or pickem role the last two seasons. Also, it is 8-0 ATS in road games the last 2 seasons when at least 15 games into the schedule versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4.0 points or more per game. The Hokies have lost to these teams on average but only by 3.0 points. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on James Madison -2.5
The Key: Motivated by Sunday's upset loss at Drexel and further fueled by a humiliating 73-47 loss at Towson in the season's first meeting, expect James Madison to bounce back strong this evening. The Dukes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home. They are also 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Prior to dropping the season's first meeting, James Madison had won 4 in a row in the series by an average of 12.5 points. It has won 5 straight at home in the series with each of these wins coming by at least 3 points. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Idaho State +17.5
The Key: This will be Weber State's second game in three days while Idaho State has three days of rest and preparation time on its side. Besides being the more fatigued team, I believe Weber State will be looking ahead to Thursday's showdown with first-place Montana, which defeated the Wildcats by only two points on the road in the season's first meeting. Weber State won at Idaho State by 15 points in the first meeting so I don't believe it will give the Bengals its full attention. History certainly shows that to be the case. Consider that underdogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided the opponent checks in off a cover as a double-digit favorite, are 76-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 17.5 points on average but have lost by just 14.2 points on average. Take the points.

7* NBA Pre-All-Star Break Game of the Year on Bobcats +4.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Boston, which checks in off yesterday's triple-OT win. The Celtics won't have the legs to pull away from a Charlotte team that has a day of rest on its side. The Celtics are a soft 18-32 ATS when playing without a day of rest over the last 3 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games when listed as a favorite of 6 points or less. In addition, plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, provided they have a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season, are 29-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Lastly, the underdog is 17-6-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the points.

6* CAA *CA$H COW* on William & Mary +2.5
The Key: This is a difficult spot for Northeastern, which will be playing its third road game in six days. William & Mary hasn't played since Feb. 6 so it will be the much fresher team. The Tribe played Northeastern to a 4-point game on the road in the season's first meeting and will have an excellent chance to get the "W" tonight. After all, they are 5-0 in their last 5 home against Northeastern. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Tribe are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Huskies are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the Tribe.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Suns +8.5
The Key: Off back-to-back losses, including a humiliating 127-96 loss in Oklahoma City last game, expect the Suns to bounce back strong this evening. Phoenix is a phenomenal 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game. Nothing gets a team to tighten the screws on defense like getting completely whacked. The Thunder are often overvalued following big wins. In fact, they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a victory. They are also only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. OKC has lost 2 straight and 4 of 6 on the road. Take the points.