Cappers Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy Game 1 Monster BEST BET on Cavaliers -7 Bottom Line: This line seems a little soft when you consider that Cleveland is on an 8-1 run at home against Boston the last 3 seasons with an average margin of victory of 11 points in those games.  I also love the fact the public is pounding Boston here to bring the line down a half point in our favor.  Plays on home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 45-17 ATS the last 5 seasons with an average winning margin of 10.7 points.  In addition, Plays on  favorites (CLEVELAND) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots, are 46-18 ATS the last 5 seasons with an average winning margin of 11.3 points.  Look for the Cavs to come out fast in Game 1 and make statement, just like they did against the Bulls.

4* Major ESPN Prime Time Total on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 194.5 Bottom Line: Plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), are 46-19 since 1996, including 14-3 the last 3 seasons.  We are only seeing 188.6 total points scored on average in this situation.  The Lakers are 13-3 UNDER after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season, and we are only seeing 192.7 points scored on average in these spots.  Lastly, the Lakers are 7-0 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds this season, and we are only seeing 184.8 total points scored on average in this situation.  In other words, the Lakers haven't been getting a lot of second chance opportunities.  We'll bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Hawks -2
Bottom Line: I just can't see the Bucks beating this talented Atlanta Hawks team four straight games.  History is certainly on our side when you consider that plays on road favorites revenging a home upset loss vs. an opponent are 97-47 ATS since 1996, 26-11 ATS the last 3 seasons and 6-1 ATS this season.  The favorite is winning by 5.4 points on average in this situation.  The Hawks are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points.  While Atlanta has been a big disappointment in these playoffs, it is still the better team in this series.  Expect the Hawks to show up in a big way tonight to avoid elimination.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Blazers -1
Bottom Line: This has been a matchup dominated by the home team. In fact, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Portland. It's do-or-die time for the Blazers and I expect them to rise to the occasion at home tonight. The big key is that the Blazers have been one of the few teams that have been able to slow down the pace of the Suns. In fact, Portland is a perfect 8-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders this season, winning by 11.9 points on average in these spots. The Trail Blazers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Roy was pretty good in his first game back, and then he really struggled last time out. Look for Roy to have a breakout game tonight, helping the Blazers extend the series.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* (TNT) on Nuggets -7
Bottom Line: We saw the way the Mavs responded in the same situation last night, and I expect a similar response from Denver here. The fact that the Jazz are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points can't be ignored. The Nuggets are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll pound Denver at home tonight.

4* Major NBA Prime Time Total on Bucks/Hawks UNDER 191
Bottom Line: After a pair of poor defensive efforts in Milwaukee, look for the Hawks to bring the "D" in their return home tonight. Here's the key - Atlanta is 11-2 UNDER after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 177 points scored on average in these games. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Side of the Night on Bulls +12
Bottom Line: Down 3-1 in the series, the Bulls have nothing to lose tonight. Expect them to play loose and to give the Cavs more than they bargained for. Cleveland couldn't have played better in Game 4 while the Bulls couldn't have played worse. I expect Chicago's embarrassing Game 4 loss to serve as extra motivation tonight. 6 of the last 9 meetings between these teams have been decided by fewer points than the number we are being faced with tonight. The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. The Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Bulls are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss period. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Heat/Celtics UNDER 188
Bottom Line: Miami is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points this season, and we have only seen 177.6 points scored on average in these spots. Expect tonight's contest to look a lot like Game 1 when these two teams combined for just 161 points. With Miami's playoff life at stake and with the Celtics trying to close out, I expect a very intense defensive battle.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Night on Hawks -1
Bottom Line: Atlanta came out flat in Game 3 after cruising to wins in the first two games of the series. I'm confident that its Game 3 loss has gotten its attention. The Hawks are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 11.6 points in these spots. Atlanta should be even more focused after watching the Celtics, Mavs and Nuggets all go down on the road yesterday. Those teams will help remind the Hawks that the better team only wins if it brings the focus and energy it needs to get the job done. The Hawks are the better team in this series and I look for them to bring it tonight in this bounce back spot.

4* Major Game 4 Power Play on Denver Nuggets +2
Bottom Line: Off back-to-back defeats, look for the Nuggets to get right back in this series with a win tonight. Denver is 19-8 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 109.8 to 100.1 in these spots. In fact, the Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points and 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Nuggets.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Blowout of the Week on Mavericks +2.5
Bottom Line: Not only do I expect Dallas to win this game outright, but I expect it to win outright with some breathing room. Dallas is 13-4 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 100.6 to 92.0 and I expect this one to be at least a 10-point win. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Pound the Mavs.

4* Major Early Cash Cow (ABC) on Celtics +2
Bottom Line: Look for the Miami Heat to pack it in today knowing there's no coming back from a 0-3 deficit. Pierce's buzzer beater was the nail in the coffin for Game 3 and the series. This is a veteran Celtics team and they would love to get some extra rest before round 2. The Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Miami and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy Western Conference 1st Round Game of the Year on Lakers +2
Bottom Line: This is exactly the spot where a veteran, championship team like the Lakers makes a statement. The Lakers led the entire way through the first 3 quarters in Game 3, but ended up losing the game because Kobe Bryant went cold in the 4th. Bryant, the game's best closer, will not be a popsicle tonight, I can assure you. The Lakers don't want this series to drag out. If they can get a "W" tonight, then they can go home with a chance to close it out in Game 5. I'm not going to give you any numbers here. I simply expect the Lakers to up the intensity and get the job done.

4* Major NBA Total Blowout on Magic/Bobcats UNDER 184.5
Bottom Line: This has been a very defense-oriented series, and I expect the intensity on the defensive end to go up in Game 3. We only saw 187 points in Game 1 and the Magic made 13 threes. We only saw 169 points in Game 2 and the Magic made 10 threes. I don't expect the long ball to fall as easily in Game 3 and the Under should be the result. The Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *Upset Alert* on Mavericks +3.5
Bottom Line: The Big 3 of the Spurs have been logging a lot of minutes, and I believe that will catch up with them tonight against the much deeper Mavericks. Dallas typically plays well in San Antonio and is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings there as a result. This is a revenge game and the Mavs are the best road team in the NBA so I really like their chances. The Mavs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Take the Mavs.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Heat -3.5
Bottom Line: The Heat were absolutely embarrassed in Game 2, and I expect Dwayne Wade and company to save face with a convincing home win tonight. We can expect another sensational game from Wade, but the difference will be Beasley and O'Neal turning in much better efforts tonight. I would be absolutely shocked if O'Neal went 1 of 10 from the floor again. The key is that O'Neal had good looks. He just missed them. Those same shots figure to find the bottom of the net at home. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs in recent years, and I see no reason why those struggles won't continue. In addition, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 30-11 ATS the last 3 seasons. Hammer the Heat.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Side of the Night on Lakers +3.5
Bottom Line: L.A. wants to end this series ASAP so that it can get some extra rest prior to the second round. I expect the Lakers to come out extremely focused and hungry tonight, especially since they were embarrassed 75-91 the last time they were in OKC. I love the fact that the Lakers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. In fact, the Lakers are 33-18 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons, only losing by an average of 0.5 points in these spots. With this is mind, we gotta take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Cavs/Bulls UNDER 193
Bottom Line: Plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games, are 42-15 the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 3-0 this season. In addition, Plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 25-4 the last 5 seasons, including 2-0 this season. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Side of the Night on Spurs +3.5
Bottom Line: I'll back the Spurs in this bounce back spot as history tells us they'll do a much better job on the defensive end tonight. In fact, the Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Spurs are also a strong 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Mavericks are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or less points and 7-27-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite. Take the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Bobcats/Magic UNDER 186
Bottom Line: Game 1 went over the 186.5-point total by a half point, largely because the Magic made 13 3-point shots. That's not going to happen again tonight and this one should finish well under the number as a result. The Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings and 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Orlando. The Under is 7-0-1 in the Bobcats' last 8 games as a road underdog and 10-3-1 in the Magic's last 14 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is also 41-14-1 in the Magic's last 56 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Side of the Night on Thunder +7
Bottom Line: The Lakers only beat the Thunder by 8 points in Game 1, and Kevin Durant didn't play well. I expect Durant to be much better tonight, and the Thunder should be able to take the Lakers right down to the wire as a result. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. Take the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Heat/Celtics OVER 179
Bottom Line: Without Garnett in the lineup, Boston is down one of its best defensive players and its emotional leader, and the Heat will take advantage. In fact, Miami is 8-0 OVER off an embarrassing road loss in which it scored less than 80 points under coach Spoelstra. The Heat have rebounded to score 105.4 points on average in these spots. In addition, Plays OVER on all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points, after 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 ppg allowed), after 42+ games, are 20-4 the last 3 seasons. Bet the OVER!

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Monster Best Bet on Jazz +7
Bottom Line: The Jazz are down another starter with Okur going down, but Utah will cover the number with its defense tonight, and Okur is a weakness in that area. Utah is an impressive s 16-4 ATS off a road loss this season, bouncing back to win by an average score of 109.4 to 99.3. If that road loss was by 10 or more points, the Jazz are 8-1 ATS in the next game this season, winning by an average score of 112.8 to 99.2 points. Notice what the opponents have scored on average in these spots. Utah has held them under the century mark. Losses have motivated this team to get after it on the defensive end and I expect no less tonight. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Super System Power Play on Bulls +11
Bottom Line: Cleveland jumped on Chicago in the first quarter in Game 1, outscoring the Bulls by 14 points. After that quarter, the Bulls actually won the last three quarters by 1 point. Knowing they played the Cavs to a standstill for the majority of Game 1 will give Chicago a lot of confidence in tonight's game. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. Plus, plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, with a losing record, are 70-36 ATS the last 3 seasons and 12-4 ATS this season. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Trail Blazers +8
Bottom Line: Not having Brandon Roy hurts, but Portland has proven that it can beat teams with its defense. The Suns, especially, have struggled against the physical defense of the Blazers. Look for Portland to keep this one within this generous number behind an inspired defensive effort tonight. The Trail Blazers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Lakers -7.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers were crushed by the Thunder the last time these two teams met last month. Look for the Lakers to return the favor here to take the wind out of Oklahoma City's sails early. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are an incredible 81-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Lakers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take the Lakers as they send a message in Game 1.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Nuggets -5
Bottom Line: The Jazz are banged up. Boozer and Okur are both expected to go, but I don't expect either to be at full strength. The big loss is Andrei Kirilenko though. He is expected to miss more time with his calf injury. He is a guy that is long enough and athletic enough to slow down Carmelo Anthony. Without him in the lineup, Anthony will run wild. The Nuggets have been great at home all season, going 34-7 and winning by 9.0 ppg on average. The Jazz are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Nuggets are 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Nuggets.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Hawks -8
Bottom Line: Without Bogut I don't give the Bucks a chance in this series against a Hawks team that is deeper, more talented, more athletic and more experienced. The Hawks enter the playoffs with plenty of momentum. Plus, they have played their best ball against the NBA's best teams. In fact, The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record. The favorite is also 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the points as the Hawks win this one by double digits.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 212.5
Bottom Line: Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more, are 73-35 since 1996. Also, plays Under on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss, are 74-37 since 1996. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA on TNT Winner on Nuggets +6
Bottom Line: The Nuggets were embarrassed in Phoenix last month and I don't see it happening again in their season finale. Denver can clinch the Northwest Division title with a win and that's what it will be gunning for. The Nuggets are 5-1-3 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *BLOOD BATH* on Bulls -5.5
Bottom Line: Boston has nothing left to play for in the regular season while the Bulls must continue to win to get into the playoffs. With Boston now focused on resting and reducing the minutes of its starters, look for the motivated Bulls to roll at home tonight. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win and I fully expect this trend to continue here tonight.

5* Wiseguy Monday NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Rockets +2.5
Bottom Line: Houston fell by 3 points to the Kings last month while scoring a measly 81 points so I expect the Rockets to be after some revenge here. In fact, Houston is an impressive 18-6 ATS when revenging a loss where it scored less than 85 points over the last 3 seasons, winning by 6.2 points on average in these spots. We'll take the Rockets and the points.

4* Major on Raptors +2.5
Bottom Line: The Raptors are banged up, but so are the Pistons. This is a must-win game for the Raptors in that they must win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and I expect them to do just that. Detroit is just 3-12 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 91.9 to 103.3. The motivated Raptors should have the edge here against a Pistons team that has played a lot of games in few days down the stretch.

4* Major Sunday NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Bulls -2
Bottom Line: The Bulls have struggled against the Raptors, but I look for them to break through here as Toronto will be without Bosh. The Raptors are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games and just 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Plus, plays against any team (TORONTO) off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, against an opponent off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, are 33-8 ATS since 1996, 14-3 ATS the last 5 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy Saturday Night NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Celtics +2
Bottom Line: I know Boston hasn't been playing well, but this proud team was royally embarrassed last night. Look for the C's to show some competitive fire and bounce back strong in this one. The Bucks defeated Boston by 2 points in Milwaukee last month, but Andrew Bogut had a huge game in that win. Without Bogut in the lineup, Boston has the clear edge on the interior with KG and Perkins, and that will be the difference. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 0 days rest. Boston wins this one outright in impressive fashion.

4* Major Saturday Night Bargain Blowout on Hawks -6
Bottom Line: Big letdown spot for the Wizards after a huge win in Boston last night. Motivated spot for the Hawks as they look to keep that No. 3 seed in the East and snap a 6-game road losing streak. Washington is just is 3-12 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 95 to 105.9. Lay the points.

4* Major Friday Night NBA Bailout (NBA TV) on Mavs +4
Bottom Line: Look for the Mavs to finally get some revenge after losing this season's 3 previous meetings with the Blazers. Dallas is a strong 24-14 on the road this season. The Mavericks are an impressive 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games while the Blazers are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Look for the motivated Mavs to win this one straight up tonight as they go after the No. 2 seed in the West.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Knicks/Magic UNDER 211
Bottom Line: The numbers really line up nicely in our favor tonight as plays Under on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ORLANDO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a terrible defensive team (>=47.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game), are 24-7 the last 5 seasons. In these situations, we are seeing an average posted total of 212.4 points, but we are only seeing 204 total points scored on average. NY may be an uptempo team, but Orlando has been able to hold those teams in check. In fact, Orlando is 22-6 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season, and we are only seeing 198.7 total points scored on average in these spots. It is an even stronger 12-1 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game in the 2nd half of the season this season, and we are only seeing 196.5 total points scored on average in these spots. Bet the Under tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Lakers +2
Bottom Line: The Lakers are well rested, having not played since Sunday, and they will be very motivated after getting crushed by the Spurs in that Sunday contest. The Lakers have struggled without Andrew Bynum, but they need to prove to themselves that they can win without him against a fellow championship contender in case he is not healthy in the playoffs. I expect them to do just that tonight. The Nuggets are at a big disadvantage here because they were pushed by the Thunder last night. The Nuggets have not performed well when playing back-to-back. In fact, the Nuggets are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 day's rest. The Nuggets are also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points, and we'll pound them in this situation tonight.

4* Major (TNT) on Bulls -2.5
Bottom Line: The Cavs have nothing to play for as they have already locked up home court throughout the playoffs. As a result, Guards Delonte West and Daniel Gibson are likely to sit out and LeBron James could sit as well. At the very least, he will see his minutes reduced. The Bulls have everything to play for as they are fighting hard for the final playoff spot in the East. The Bulls are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss, and we'll take them in this situation tonight.

4* Major NBA Bailout (ESPN) on Suns -6.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs are going to have a tough time running and gunning with the Suns tonight after a tough one in Sacramento last night, especially with Tony Parker's minutes being limited. The Suns haven't played since the 3rd so they will be very fresh. The Suns are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 71-32 ATS the last 5 seasons, and we are seeing the underdog lose by 10.3 points on average in these spots. Take the Suns.

5* Wiseguy NBA Letdown Game of the Year on Nets +8
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for the Bucks tonight after clinching a playoff berth with a win against the Bulls last night. The Bucks were able to persevere in their first game without Bogut, but the second game will be much more difficult. With Bogut out, New Jersey's Brook Lopez will have a lot more room to operate on the offensive end. The Bucks are clearly being overvalued at this price. In fact, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Nets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Fade the Bucks in this letdown spot.

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog of the Month on Kings +6.5
Bottom Line: Expect the Spurs to struggle tonight because of the injury to George Hill. Once Tony Parker went down, it took San Antonio a while to adjust. Now his replacement will miss time with an ankle injury. Not only can Hill score and create for others, but he is the guy that gets the Spurs into their offensive sets. I just don't see things going to smoothly for San Antonio tonight. The Spurs are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite. The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Also, the Kings have either been victorious or have lost by 3 or fewer points in each of their last 5 home contests with the Spurs. San Antonio is overvalued in this spot. Take the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Warriors/Wizards UNDER 220
Bottom Line: Washington is 12-4 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season, and we are only seeing 200.1 points on average in these games. Washington is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 games, and I expect this trend to continue tonight against a Warriors team expected to be without leading scorer Monta Ellis.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Championship Bomb on Duke -7.5
Bottom Line: Both of these teams are very good defensively, but I give the edge to Duke tonight because of its dominance on the glass and because of how much more offensive fire power it has. Butler was able to get past a Michigan State team that was missing its best player despite a couple lengthy scoring droughts because it won the turnover battle. I just can't see that happening again tonight against a Duke team at full strength that doesn't turn it over. Duke only had 6 turnovers against an exceptional WVU defense and it is 9-1 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 78.8 to 61.5. Butler has been a great story, but Duke will win and cover this spread if it does the two things it has done all season - rebound and take care of the basketball. I'm willing to bet large that it will.

5* Wiseguy National TV Bomb on Spurs +6
Bottom Line: While the Lakers are 33-5 SU at home this season, they are just 16-21-1 ATS in those games as they are one of the more overvalued teams in the NBA because of how much betting attention they receive. They are especially overvalued following an ATS win. As a result, the Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Lakers are also just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. Look for a motivated Spurs team that is playing well to give the Lakers all they want and more this afternoon.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Blazers -6
Bottom Line: After an embarrassing loss to the Nuggets, look for the Blazers to take out their frustration on the lowly Kings tonight. The Blazers have won their past two games at Arco Arena by an average of 18.5 points and the last six matchups with the Kings by 14.0 per game! Also, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 37-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 9-1 ATS this season. Teams in this situation are winning by 10.9 points on average. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy Final Four Monster on Duke -2
Bottom Line: WVU got past Kentucky because it shot out of its mind from 3-point range in the first half of that game. Kentucky happened to be ice cold from 3-point land despite getting continual open looks, and the Wildcats turned the ball over too much. I'm not taking anything away from WVU and its performance against Kentucky, but it figures to have its work cut out for itself tonight against Duke. The Blue Devils don't turn the ball over. They have gone 12 straight games with 14 or fewer giveaways. And they have been shooting the lights out from 3 - 40% against Purdue and 47.8% against Baylor. I can't see Duke shooting the ball as poorly as Kentucky did if it gets the same looks, and I'm willing to bet large that it won't. Pound the Blue Devils!

4* Major on Butler -1
Bottom Line: When you look at it, Michigan State is only 8-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten. Butler plays great defense and is an extremely smart offensive team, running their sets to perfection and rarely taking a bad shot. With Kalin Lucas out, Butler has the best player on the court in Gordon Hayward. He came up big against K-State and I believe he will again today. I know Izzo is one of the very best coaches in the college game, but if Butler can get past more talented Syracuse and Kansas State teams, they can certainly get past the Spartans. Bet Butler.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Game of the Year on LA Lakers -4.5
Bottom Line: It's gut check time of LA, just like it was for Denver last night, and I expect the Lakers to respond just like the Nuggets did. Right away I love the fact that the Lakers have won 13 straight at home against the Jazz and the Jazz are just 3-10 ATS in those games. After getting embarrassed by Atlanta, look for the Lakers to bounce back strong tonight. In fact, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. In addition, plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 62-26 ATS the last 5 seasons, 45-16 ATS the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS this season. And the underdog is losing by 10.2 points on average in this situation. Take the Lakers!

4* Major ESPN Prime Time Total on Hawks/Cavs UNDER 195.5
Bottom Line: Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent, if that opponent is off a win against a division rival, are 93-49 the last 5 seasons, 50-25 the last 3 seasons and 7-2 this season. We are only seeing 190.5 points scored in this situation on average. We'll bet the Under behind this strong system tonight.

4* Major NBA on TNT Bailout on Nuggets -5
Bottom Line: This game is absolutely huge for Denver in terms of its confidence after such a poor road trip, and I expect the Nuggets to respond in a big way. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 70-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 76-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points with the Nuggets tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month (TNT) on Magic -2
Bottom Line: I'll pound the well-rested Magic tonight against a Mavericks squad that needed overtime to beat Memphis last night. Plus, the Magic will be out for revenge after Dallas defeated them in Orlando the last time these two teams met in mid-February. The Mavericks are only 5-26-1 ATS in their last 32 home games. Plus, the Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas. Lastly, the Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Take the Magic.

4* Major Wednesday Night NBA Bailout (ESPN) on Jazz -13
Bottom Line: Monta Ellis is listed as doubtful for tonight's game and I really don't think the Warriors have a chance of keeping this one within the number even if he is on the floor. The Jazz are 23-7-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. They are playing for a division title and a No. 2 seed in the playoffs so they have no reason to take the night off. Lay the points.

4* Major CBI Tourney *BLOOD BATH* on St. Louis +1.5
Bottom Line: Saint Louis did not play well at VCU the other night, but it will at home tonight. The Billikens have been very, very consistently good at home this season. In fact, they are an impressive 18-3 in all home games. St. Louis is on a 9-1 ATS roll in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games, winning in these spots 6.9 points on average. Take the Billikens as they send this series to a game 3.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Month on Heat/Pistons OVER 187
Bottom Line: Miami held Detroit to an atrocious 65 points when these two teams last met in late January. With that loss still leaving a very sour taste in the mouth of the Pistons, I expect them to try like hell to return the favor in this spot, carrying this one over the number as a result. Jermaine O'Neal is expected to be out and Richard Hamilton is listed as doubtful, but this actually plays to our benefit. It forces both teams to really open things up offensively, not relying on their sets as much. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The Over is 7-1 in the Pistons' last 8 games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Bet the Over tonight.

4* Major NBA Total of the Night on Suns/Bulls OVER 215
Bottom Line: This line opened at 217.5 and has been bet down to 215 to create additional value in taking the Over. Phoenix is going to score points. In fact, it has scored 110 or more points in 10 of its last 14 games. The Suns should be particularly motivated to run up the score tonight against a Bulls team that has defeated them by double digits in 3 straight games. While Phoenix scores a lot or points, it also gives up a lot of points. The Suns have allowed 100 or more points in 11 of their last 14 games. Phoenix is 14-4 OVER in road games when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, and we are seeing 220.1 total points in these spots on average. Bet the Over.

4* Major NCAAB Game of the Night (ESPN 2) on Ole Miss +1.5
Bottom Line: Ole Miss has been a fantastic ATS team at 18-11 ATS in all lined games this season. And the Rebels have been at their best against the spread when playing away from home as they are 10-4 ATS in their 14 neutral court/road contests this season. Ole Miss has great scoring balance and it is the more explosive offensive team, and these factors will be the difference tonight. The Rebels are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog while the Flyers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite. I'll take Ole Miss here as I like it to won this game.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Lakers/Hornets UNDER 201.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in New Orleans. The Under is 8-0-1 in the Hornets' last 9 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games following a S.U. win and 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 18-6 Under in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons and 8-1 Under when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season. Bet the Under!

4* Major on Spurs/Nets UNDER 193
Bottom Line: It's going to be tough for the Spurs to get up for this one both Physically and emotionally after such a huge win in Boston Sunday. The Spurs are 12-2 Under when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing a total of 182.9 points in these spots. Bet the Under.

4* Major ESPN Prime Time Total on Spurs/Celtics UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: Boston is a perfect 10-0 UNDER after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 181.6 total points scored on average in these spots. With Tony Parker not in uniform to push the pace for the Spurs, they become a very, very slow paced offensive team. I expect to see a half court, defensive battle result in the Under here.

4* Major on Baylor +5
Bottom Line: Baylor really fed off of the home crowd atmosphere Friday and I expect it to do so again. The Bears create a lot of matchup problems for Duke because of their size and athleticism so I'll gladly take the points in this one. The Blue Devils are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points. I just don't think Duke is 5 points better than Baylor on a neutral floor. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 Game of the Year on Tennessee -2
Bottom Line: Michigan State won't be able to survive Tennessee's pressure defense without Kalin Lucas. The Spartans got all they wanted and more from N. Iowa, and now they get a much more athletic Tennessee team. The Spartans are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 while the Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Vols just conquered an Ohio State team that was at full strength and that handled Michigan State in East Lansing this season. I'll roll with the Vols here.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Hornets +3
Bottom Line: New Orleans is very good on its home court, and it will be even better down the stretch now that Chris Paul is back in the lineup. The Hornets have a good problem to have as they have two top notch point guards in Paul and Darren Collison. These guys will be the difference tonight. New Orleans has won 25 of its last 33 home games against the number when facing a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Hornets catching points at home tonight.

4* Major on West Virginia +4
Bottom Line: Defense wins championships and no team has been D-ing up like the Mountaineers, who have held their last 6 opponents under the 60-point mark. Good defensive teams make excellent underdogs so it comes as no surprise that the Mountaineers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. Plus, the Mountaineers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games overall. Kentucky hasn't seen a team this athletic, and this disciplined on the defensive end all season. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *BLOOD BATH* on Kansas State -4
Bottom Line: We saw Northern Iowa put up a pretty good fight last night, but when it was all said and done, even a shorthanded Michigan State squad proved to be too much for the Panthers. I expect a similar outcome here. Butler has what it takes to hang around for a while, but I expect Kansas State's size, strength and stellar guard play to ultimately be the difference. No one has been able to contain Pullen and Clemente, and I don't see Butler being able to do so either. It is no reach for the Wildcats to cover this number in the favorite roll as they are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite and 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. They are also are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Another stat that really stands out is K-State is 12-1 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season, winning in these spots by 12.4 points on average while holding its opponents to just 66.4 ppg. This tells me how much the Wildcats focus on the defensive end following a subpar defensive effort. We'll lay the number.

4* Major Sweet 16 Public Burial on Purdue +9
Bottom Line: The public is on Duke after seeing it roll through the early rounds, but we shouldn't count Purdue out here because of how solid it is defensively. Duke is consistently overvalued in the NCAA Tournament because of the betting attention it gets. As a result, the Blue Devils are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Purdue is the right side here.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Kings/Celtics OVER 196.5
Bottom Line: The Kings will play much better tonight offensively after getting completely embarrassed by only scoring 79 points at New Jersey Wednesday. Boston should be motivated as well as a win will lock up the division title. The Kings leave a lot to be desired defensively, and when odds makers have them as a double digit dog, you know they think the Kings are going to give up some points. So it comes as no surprise that the Over is 4-1 in the Kings' last 5 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. The Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a home favorite. Boston is averaging nearly 106 ppg over its last 6, and I expect it to be able to best that mark tonight against a poor defensive team to push this one Over.

5* Wiseguy 2010 NCAAB Game of the Year on Baylor -4.5
Bottom Line: It's been a good run for St. Mary's, but it comes to an end tonight. St. Mary's has been good in this tournament because of its balance. It has received a pair of huge games from Omar Samhan, but I just don't see the big fella having the same success against a Baylor team that is very long and very athletic up front. Without a big game from Samhan, the Gaels will lose the offensive balance that has helped them be so successful. Another huge fact that can't go unmentioned is that this game will be played at Reliant Stadium in Houston. That's just a couple hour drive from Waco so I expect a lot or Baylor fans to be on hands. Also, Baylor is 8-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Baylor is a bad matchup for Saint Mary's. We'll lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Mavs +3
Bottom Line: After losing the season's first two meetings to the Blazers, look for Dallas to have a little revenge tonight. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the underdog in recent meetings as the dog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6. The Mavericks are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Portland. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Trail Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. I know the Blazers have had considerable rest, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Take the Mavs.

4* Major on Cornell +9
Bottom Line: Unlike Temple and Wisconsin, Kentucky has an explosive offense that can answer Cornell's offensive efficiency. However, I like Cornell's chances catching big points. After all, this is a team that played Syracuse tougher than the final score would lead you to believe, and it gave Kansas a major scare in Lawrence. The Big Red are extremely experienced, while Kentucky is young, and history says to take experience this time of year. The numbers are in our favor here big time when you consider that Kentucky is on a 2-17 ATS skid after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more. Cornell, on the other hand, is 6-0 ATS off an upset win over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after a win by 15 points or more this season. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 Monster BEST BET on Xavier +5
Bottom Line: Xavier will benefit from having already seen Kansas State this season. The Musketeers lost that game at K-State by double digits, but that was early in the season before they hit their stride. Xavier is a much different, much better team now, and the Wildcats will find out on a neutral floor tonight. The Musketeers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Xavier is also 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. Don't be surprised if the Musketeers pull off the upset here. We'll take the points.

4* Major on Washington +4.5
Bottom Line: West Virginia wins ugly. So if the Mountaineers move on tonight, I don't see them doing so by more than 4 points, especially now that they are missing Darryl Bryant. Consider that WVU is 0-9 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 67.2 to 68.1. Also, consider that the Mountaineers are only 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. This team just doesn't play a way that's conducive to blowing out its opponents. I'll ride a red hot Washington team catching a couple buckets tonight.

4* Major NCAAB Game of the Night on Creighton +7
Bottom Line: With as familiar as these two teams are with one another, both playing in the MVC, I expect a close game tonight, which makes these 7 points look pretty good. Right away, I love the fact that the Bluejays are 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this matchup. I know Missouri State completely crushed Louisiana Tech in its last game, but that plays in our favor as well. In fact, the Bears are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Bears are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite period. We'll take the points with Creighton here.

4* Major NBA Side of the Night on T-Wolves +9.5
Bottom Line: The Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Plus, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. I think odds makers are asking too much of the Bobcats to post a double digit win at home tonight after an energy-consuming overtime win last night. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout of the Week on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 199.5
Bottom Line: I liked the Under here to begin with when you consider that Washington has been held under the century mark in 12 straight games. Now, I really like it since Andray Blatche, Washington's main scoring option, is not expected to play for disciplinary reasons. Washington is 18-5 UNDER in all games in the second half of the season this season, and we are only seeing 190.7 points scored in these games on average. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Clippers +9.5
Bottom Line: Both teams will be extremely motivated in this spot as they both look to get back in the win column so I'm giving the edge to the fresher team. The Mavs just played last night in New Orleans, and I think it's asking a lot for them to return home and defeat a Clippers team that has had a day to rest by double digits. The Mavericks are 3-26-1 ATS in their last 30 home games. They are also just 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the Clippers and the points here tonight.

5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on Mississippi -9
Bottom Line: Texas Tech has struggled immensely on the road all season. In fact, the Red Raiders are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Ole Miss has been terrific laying points. The Rebels are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Ole Miss is winning by an average of 12.8 points at home this season and I look for it to put the hurt on the Red Raiders this evening.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Year on Grizzlies -2
Bottom Line: I know Memphis has struggled at Sacramento, but the Grizzlies have the clear advantage in terms of talent and motivation in this one. Tyreke Evans is banged up and may not even go for the Kings, and he won't be at 100% even if he does. So the Kings start Evans, Donte Greene, Carl Landry, Spencer Hawes and Francisco Garcia. The Grizzlies start Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Hasheem Thabeet (Marc Gasol doubtful), OJ Mayo and Mike Conley. Big edge to Memphis in terms of athleticism and talent. Plus, the Grizzlies still have an outside shot at the playoffs so they will be the more motivated side. The Kings are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Memphis.

4* Major NCAAB Game of the Night on Princeton +6.5
Bottom Line: I don't feel Princeton is getting the respect it deserves here, especially when you consider the ball control, clock-eating game that the Tigers play. The Tigers are an incredible 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall and a fantastic 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Princeton is also 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS in a road game where the total is 119.5 or less this season. With the total posted this low, odds makers aren't expecting many points to be scored, and that really plays in Princeton's favor. Take the Tigers.

4* Major Sunday NBA Monster BEST BET on Pistons +12.5
Bottom Line: First off, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Secondly, the Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Detroit has kept the score within this number in all three prior meetings this season, and I expect it to do so again as it plays hard to avoid the season sweep. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Sunday NCAA Tournament *BLOOD BATH* on Wisconsin -4
Bottom Line: Yes, Cornell looked impressive in its win over Temple and Wisconsin did not in its win over Wofford, but this is a new game. While Temple was known for being a good defensive team, its defense didn't impress me nearly as much as Wisconsin's did this year. The key to beating Cornell is chasing it off the 3-point line. Temple didn't do that, but you better believe Wisconsin will. Cornell is only 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and 7-1 ATS when playing against a top level opponent (Win Pct. > 80%) this season, winning these games by 7.8 points on average. Cornell is a popular public pick today, but I think Wisconsin will prove to be too big and too strong.

4* Major on Michigan State +1
Bottom Line: Tom Izzo knows how to get the most out of his teams this time of year. With as well as the Spartans play on the defensive end, and with as well as they rebound, I expect them to move on to the round of 16. The Terrapins are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Michigan State.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Celtics +4
Bottom Line: This is a huge statement game for Boston to show the rest of the NBA that it WILL be a force come playoff time. With this in mind, I just can't see laying this many points with the Mavs. Right away, you don't mind taking the Celtics in this back-to-back spot because they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Plus, the Celtics are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 51-24-2 ATS in their last 77 games as a road underdog period. As for the Mavs, they are only 2-25-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite. Lastly, the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Dallas. Take the points.

4* Major Saturday Night NCAA Tourney Bailout on Wake Forest +9.5
Bottom Line: The Wildcats are an abysmal 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the ACC. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points. One thing to note about the Demon Deacons is that they seem to play to the level of their competition and the numbers reflect that. The Demon Deacons are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Look for the Deacons to keep this one within the number.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Blowout of the Year on Tennessee -8
Bottom Line: We'll pound Tennessee today in what is a huge letdown spot for Ohio. The Bobcats upset Georgetown in the first round while shooting a ridiculous 58% from the field. Tennessee is one of the better defensive teams in the nation. It ranks 16th in field goal percentage defense, only allowing its opponents to shoot 39.3% from the floor. And it ranks 7th in 3-point field goal percentage defense, only allowing its opponents to shoot 29% from beyond the arc. Ohio will find that its shots won't fall nearly as easily against this very scrappy and tenacious Tennessee squad. I'm confident Tennessee can double up on this number, making it a solid call as my Blowout of the Year. Lay the points.

4* Major NCAA Tourney Bailout Blowout on Maryland -9
Bottom Line: The Cougars are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points so this is certainly a team that could be run off the court tonight, which I think it will. Houston would not be here had it not won the C-USA Tourney, and I expect it to make a quick exit. Maryland is 9-1 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Houston will have no answer for Greivis Vasquez and company tonight. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Friday Night Game of the Month on Thunder -1.5
Bottom Line: I know the Raptors can be pretty tough north of the border, but I'll take the more talented Thunder in this bounce back spot. The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. The Raptors are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games. Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Lastly, the Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Friday games. We'll take OKC tonight.

5* Wiseguy Friday NCAA Tourney *BLOOD BATH* on Purdue -4
Bottom Line: Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%), are 83-39 ATS since 1997, 32-13 ATS the last 3 seasons and a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Teams in this situation have won by an average of 9.4 points dating back to 1997. Off an embarrassing loss in the Big Ten Tourney, Purdue will be out for blood here. The Boilermakers may be without Hummel, but they still have plenty of talent remaining to cover this number. Lay the points.

4* Major 1st Round Blowout on Tennessee -3
Bottom Line: The Vols will be ready to run up the score after getting completely embarrassed by Kentucky in the SEC tournament. Tennessee is responsible for handing both Kansas and Kentucky 1 of their 2 losses on the season so the Vols can play. Add the motivational factor and we have ourselves a solid blowout situation. History confirms that we are on the right side here when you consider that plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (TENNESSEE) off a loss against a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), are 54-24 ATS the last 5 seasons (69.2%). Lay the points as I like Tennessee to stretch this one out to a double digit win.

4* Major NBA on TNT *BLOOD BATH* on Magic -2
Bottom Line: Miami may hang around for a while in this one, but expect it to be a blood bath when the final buzzer goes off. After losing the first two meetings of the season to the Heat, the Magic responded with a 16-point blowout last month and I expect them to roll by double digits again. Miami is 0-8 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of its last 7 against the spread this season, losing in these spots by 9.9 points on average. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points while the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or less. Plus, the Magic are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. We'll lay the number.

4* Major Perfect Angle Power Play on North Texas +16
Bottom Line: The Mean Green Eagles have proven to be a tremendous underdog as they are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games in the underdog role. Plus, the Mean Green Eagles are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. They are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Look for an experienced North Texas team to keep this one within the number.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Underdog of the Year on Florida +5
Bottom Line: The Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. The Cougars are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite. This Florida team is much better than it is getting credit for with this line when you consider its talent level and the fact that it played in a better league from top to bottom than the Mountain West. Here's the icing on the cake. The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in the postseason tournament games when playing away from home since 1997, losing in these spots by an average of 9.8 points. Look for Florida to pull off the upset.

5* Wiseguy 2010 NBA Underdog of the Year on LA Clippers +5.5
Bottom Line: First off, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Secondly, the Bucks are just 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and only 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Milwaukee has been a great team to ride of late, but now I think it's time to fade away as odds makers are really overvaluing the Bucks right now. The first evidence of this was Sunday when they were favored by 9.5 points against Indiana and only won by 4. The Clippers will be extremely motivated in this spot as they are rested and ready to end an 8-game skid. The Bucks are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, the Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the points.

4* Major NCAAB Game of the Night on Stony Brook +6.5
Bottom Line: Stony Brook is 12-1 at home this season, and I think it has an excellent chance to pull off the upset tonight against an Illinois that is not excited about playing in the NIT. After taking Ohio St. to double overtime in the Big 10 tournament, the Buckeyes really believed they deserved a trip to the Big Dance. I just don't expect them to embrace this game tonight. The Fighting Illini are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and only 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. Just don't trust Illinois in the road chalk. We'll take the points.

4* Major ESPN Prime Time Total on Spurs/Magic UNDER 193
Bottom Line: The Magic have played to the Under in 10 of their last 13, the Spurs in 5 of their last 7. Without Tony Parker in the lineup to push the pace, I expect a halfcourt affair tonight in Orlando. The Under is 7-0 in the Spurs' last 7 games as a road underdog. The Under is 22-6-1 in the Magic's last 29 games as a favorite and 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games. Expect a defensive battle tonight. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Lakers/Kings UNDER 208
Bottom Line: The Under is 9-3 in the Lakers' last 12 road games, 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 5-0 in their last 5 games following an ATS defeat and 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Tuesday has been a flat night for the Kings over the course of the season, and the Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 Tuesday games as a result. Plus, the Under is 7-1 in their last 8 vs. the NBA Pacific. After a physically taxing uptempo game at Golden State last night, look for the Lakers to control the tempo more tonight, slowing things down to take advantage of their size up front. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy Play-in Game Monster BEST BET (ESPN) on Arkansas Pine Bluff +4
Bottom Line: It makes sense to play against neutral court favorites (or picks) that are poor offensive team scoring <=64 points/game on the season, after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games, as these plays are 24-9 ATS the last 5 seasons and 17-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons. I'm not about to lay points with a Winthrop team only shooting 38.3% from the field on the season. Plus, it can't go unmentioned with the way the Golden Lions challenged themselves this season, playing a lot of Major Conference and NCAA Tourney teams on the road during their non-conference slate. I think these games will really benefit them in an environment like they will see tonight. Plus, the Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. We'll take Pine Bluff and the points tonight as I like them to pull off the upset.

4* Major College Insider Tourney Blowout on Marshall -11
Bottom Line: W. Carolina is on a 6-21 ATS slide when taking on good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game, after 15+ games into the season. Marshall averages 89 ppg at home where it is winning by 21.6 points on average. Marshall will be too explosive for the Catamounts tonight.