Cappers Sports Picks

20* Spurs/Knicks Game 4 No-Brainer on New York ML -125

The New York Knicks took both games in San Antonio despite shooting 41.5% in Game 1 and 41.6% in Game 2.  They lost by 4 at home in Game 3 and shot just 45.5%.  So they haven't shot the ball nearly to their capabilities and talent level once yet in this series, yet they still lead 2-1.

The Knicks had shot 47.7% or better in 11 consecutive playoff games prior to the NBA Finals, and 49% or better in 10 of them.  They are an elite offensive team.  I think they know they've been going too much Jalen Brunson iso ball, and they will do more to implement Karl-Anthony Towns in Game 4 as he has been the best player for them in this series in terms of plus/minus.  Look for them to use him a lot more as their playmaker tonight, especially down the stretch.

This is where the Knicks' rest advantage coming into the NBA Finals starts to take hold.  They swept both the 76ers and Cavs, and they had eight days off prior to the NBA Finals.  The Spurs had to go 6 games with the Timberwolves and then 7 games with the Thunder in their last two series and only had three days off prior to the NBA Finals.

The Knicks have shown they are the much deeper team with the better bench.  The Spurs continue to play their stars big minutes and it will catch up to them, especially with how physical this series has been thus far.  Wemby, Vassell, Fox and Castle all played 36 or more minutes in Game 3.  They really only trust Harper and Champaigne, and Johnson has been a disappointment.  So they are basically going with a 6-man rotation plus Johnson.  It will take its toll as this series goes on, starting tonight in Game 4.  Bet the Knicks on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Knicks Game 3 No-Brainer on OVER 215.5

After two straight unders to open the NBA Finals, I think we are getting some value on the OVER 215.5 for Game 3 tonight.  Both teams are much more potent offensively than they have shown thus far, and I think with some adjustments from both teams we get a shootout in Game 3 tonight.

The Knicks shot 47.7% or better from the field in 11 consecutive games coming into the NBA Finals.  That includes 49% or better in 10 of those 11 games.  But they shot just 41.5% in Game 1 and 41.6% in Game 2, so even though they won both games they are still due some positive shooting regression.

The Spurs shot just 36% in Game 1.  Even though they rebounded for 47.4% in Game 2, they are still a very potent offensive team that is capable of more.  They aren't getting anything out of their many transition opportunities, and they will start capitalizing on those at a higher clip.  The pace has been there in this series, and it will continue to be there for Game 3 as both teams know they need those easy points.

The Spurs have actually been more efficient offensively on the road in these playoffs but worse defensively.  Indeed, the Spurs are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven playoff road games.  They have gone for 223 or more combined points in six of those seven road games.  This total of 215.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER In Game 3 Monday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Knicks/Spurs OVER 213.5

Both the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs were rusty and nervous for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  The Knicks had 8 days off in between games, while the Spurs had 3 days off in between.  The rust and nerves showed as both teams shot much worse than their season averages.

The Knicks shot 41.5% from the field after having shot 47.7% or better in 11 consecutive games prior, and 49% or better in 10 of those.  That 47.7% performance also came largely due to rust in Game 1 against the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals after also having 8 days off prior to that series after sweeping the Hawks.

The Spurs shot just 36% from the field and 11-of-43 (25.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Vassell, Fox and Castle combined to go 2-of-15 alone.  It's clear they are due some positive shooting regression in Game 2 and will be much sharper offensively.  They showed the most nerves as a young team playing in the NBA Finals for the first time.  Nerves won't be nearly as much of a factor for them tonight.

The OVER is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 playoff games.  They are playing at a fast tempo, and you could see the Knicks wanted to push it as much as possible to try and create easy looks before San Antonio's defense has a chance to get set with Wembenyama.  They will continue to push the pace in Game 2 tonight, and both teams will be much more efficient offensively.

The total for Game 1 closed at 217.5.  Circa dropped this number all the way down to 213.5 for Game 2 on the opener, which is where I grabbed it knowing there was value with the OVER.  I would play this as a 25* all the way up to the Game 1 total of 217.5, though it likely won't get that high.  It's at 216.5 as of this writing.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Knicks/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on New York +5

The New York Knicks are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games with 10 of those wins coming by double-digits.  That includes six consecutive road wins all by double-digits and by an average of 26.8 points per game.

It's clear the Knicks are showing what they are capable of when they stay healthy for a full postseason.  They are a more veteran team that realizes this is their opportunity to pounce.  And they really haven't benefited from injuries to their opponents as they have mostly been healthy throughout this run.

What's most impressive with the Knicks is just how efficient they have been offensively in shooting 47.7% or better in 11 consecutive games.  They are simply unstoppable on that end right now, and I think the Spurs are vulnerable defensively.  I also like the rest advantage the Knicks will have after sweeping the Cavs on May 25th.

The spot is a bad one for these young Spurs.  They just slayed Goliath, taking out the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 on the road.  They celebrated like they won the championship.  I think they will be a little flat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals as a result.

The Spurs benefited from the Thunder losing two of their top four scorers to injury in that series in Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell.  The Thunder really struggled offensively as a result by not having those two playmakers on the court.  Nobody except Shai could get his own shot, making them very easy to defend as the series went on.  The Knicks have killers all over the court, and it will be a shock to the system for the Spurs.

The Knicks went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Spurs during the regular season.  That includes their 124-113 win as 2.5-point favorites on a neutral in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  The Spurs needed a massive comeback in a 134-132 win as 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch two weeks later.  They got 11 3's from Champagnie in that game.  The Knicks came back and blasted the Spurs 114-89 at home as 1-point dogs.

What really stood out in those three meetings was the fact that the Spurs were fully healthy for all three, while the Knicks were without Anunoby in that 2-point road loss.  Wembenyama played in all three meetings.  No question he will be a problem as he always is, but the Knicks handled him well, and Mitchell Robinson is the ace up their sleeve that can defend him just about as well as anyone in the NBA.  The Knicks have elite wing defenders and I give them the advantage everywhere else in this series.  Bet the Knicks in Game 1 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

NBA Game 7's after Round 1 have gone 26-12 UNDER over the last two decades.  In the conference finals or NBA finals, the UNDER is 12-1 over this same stretch.  In matchups between Top 3 seeds, the UNDER is 17-2 in the last 19 Game 7's with one of those two overs only going over because of OT.

Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games.  The longer a series goes on, the harder points are to come by.  The Spurs and Thunder know each other inside and out as this will be their 12th and final meeting of the season.  This favors defense over offense almost every time.

The Thunder being without two of their top four scorers in Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell have made them have to be more defensive-minded in these playoffs.  They are playing guys a lot more minutes that are more known for defense than offense in Dort, Caruso and Wallace.  They know they are good enough to win a defensive battle, too.

The pace in this series has consistently gotten slower and slower with fewer fast break opportunities.  The Spurs are playing much slower after having 23 turnovers in Game 1 and 21 in Game 2. They have just 15 turnovers or less in each of the last four games, making taking care of the ball more of a priority instead of getting out and running.  

These teams went for just 185 combined points in Game 4 and 209 in Game 6, so this total of 213.5 is still too high for Game 7 despite an adjustment down.  With a trip to the NBA Finals on the line tonight, both teams will play tight and that will favor defense over offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2.5

The San Antonio Spurs are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  They have been one of the most resilient teams in the NBA and have answered the bell time and time again following a defeat.

Their last three wins in these playoffs off a loss have come by 38, 29 and 21 points.  That includes their 103-82 win over the Spurs in Game 4 that evened this series at 2-2.  Now they will even it at 3-3 with a dominant home win tonight.

The Thunder are without Ajay Mitchell and likely without Jalen Williams again tonight.  They won't be nearly as good on the road without these guys as they were at home.  They shot 43.8% from 3 at home in Game 5.  They shot just 18.2% from 3 on the road in Game 4.

The Spurs are also due some positive shooting regression after making 38.9% from the field in Game 4 and 40.2% from the field in Game 5.  They are a much better shooting team than they've shown, and they are the team that's fully healthy right now and will get more from their role players at home tonight.  Bet the Spurs Thursday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio +4.5

The Spurs made a great adjustment in Game 4 that I think will pay dividends the rest of this series.  They decided to stop double-teaming Shai and giving up wide open 3-pointers which led to an NBA playoff record 76 bench points from the Thunder in Game 3.

The Spurs only lost the bench scoring 34-30 in Game 4, and most of those points for the Thunder came in the 4th quarter when they were sitting starters with the game already decided in a 103-82 victory by the Spurs.  They are willing to give up 30 points to Shai and not allow open 3-pointers.  I think that's the perfect strategy as Shai is going to still have to make tough shots to beat them.

While the Spurs are fully healthy, the Thunder are going to be without Ajay Mitchell again tonight, and Jalen Williams is questionable after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury.  Mitchell was WIlliams' replacement in the starting lineup and had been a huge part of them not missing Williams so much.  But without both now the Spurs are in real trouble.

Chet Holmgren is one of the most overrated players in the NBA and he just folds against Victor Wembenyama.  He has been borderline unplayable.  Isaiah Hartenstein tries hard, but he's no match for Wembenyama either.  And that is the biggest mismatch in this series and will continue to be heavily in San Antonio's favor as the series goes on.

The fact of the matter is the Spurs have had the Thunder's number this season and I expect it to continue in Game 5.  The Spurs are 6-3 SU & 5-3-1 ATS in their nine meetings with the Thunder this season.  And the adjustment to stop giving the Thunder wide open 3-pointers is the exact move they had to make.  Bet the Spurs in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 215.5

The Knicks are on a historic playoff run winning 10 straight games with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.  The biggest part of that run is their offense, which has shot 50% or better in nine of their last 10 games.  They are getting whatever they want against the Cavs and will continue to get whatever they want in Game 4 tonight.

Cleveland has played at a much faster tempo and has been much more efficient offensively at home in these playoffs.  The OVER is 6-2 in all Cleveland home playoff games with 215 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  This total of 215.5 is too short tonight.

Cleveland was due some positive shooting regression after making 40% of its shots in Game 1 and 38.8% in Game 2 at New York.  The Cavs were better offensively in Game 3 at home shooting 50% from the field, but just 29.3% from 3. They are a better shooting team than they've shown in this series.  They went for 229 combined points with the Knicks in Game 3, and it should be more of the same tonight in Game 4.  

With this series being 3-0 in favor of the Knicks I think we see a lack of defensive intensity from both teams, but especially from the Cavs who know their fate is pretty much sealed.  They will go down guns a blazing offensively in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Knicks/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on New York +1

The New York Knicks are in the midst of one of the most dominant playoff runs of all-time.  They have gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games with a remarkable 9 wins by double-digits.

Because of this domination, the Knicks have stayed extremely healthy by playing close to the minimum amount of games to this point.  And they are showing how dominant they can be when they are fully healthy.  They have shot 47.7% from the field or better in all 10 games and 50% or better in eight of them.

While the Knicks will be motivated for another sweep to get the max rest possible heading into the NBA Finals, I think the Cavs are just ready for their season to be over.  It was a disgusting effort in Game 3 in their 13-point home loss to the Knicks in a must-win game.  They showed some quit in the 4th quarter and I think that will carry over into Game 4 tonight.  

Fatigue is really starting to show for the Cavs after playing two Game 7's to open the playoffs.  They haven't had more than one day off in between games since April 27-28.  They have been gutted since blowing that 22-point lead in Game 1 and losing in OT.  They haven't recovered and will not recover in time for Game 4, either.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs ML -122

The San Antonio Spurs are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss this season.  Prior to losing the last two games in this series to the Thunder, you have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time the Spurs lost two games in a row.  They are very resilient, and I fully expect them to bounce back in Game 4 at home Sunday to even this series at 2-2.

No question the Thunder are due some regression from their bench after getting to huge efforts from their bench in Games 2 and 3.  In fact, 12 of their 13 3-pointers came from their bench in Game 2.  And they followed it up by getting 76 points from their bench in Game 3, which is a NBA playoff record.  That's clearly not going to happen again in Game 4.

The Spurs went all in on double-teaming Shai and making everyone else beat them in Game 3.  I think they are better off giving Shai single coverage and letting him get his 30 points rather than allowing OKC's shooters to get open looks.  They will make the proper adjustments in Game 4 in how they defend OKC.

The Spurs are due some positive shooting regression after connecting on just 42.5% from the field and 31.7% from 3 in Game 3.  I like the fact that both Dylan Harper and De'Aaron Fox showed they were healthy enough to play after being questionable leading into Game 3.  Conversely, the Thunder remain without Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell is banged up as well.  Bet the Spurs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Knicks/Cavs Game 3 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 214

Cleveland has played at a much faster tempo and has been much more efficient offensively at home in these playoffs.  The OVER is 5-2 in all Cleveland home playoff games with 215 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 214 is too short tonight.

The Cavs are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 40% from the field in Game 1 and 38.8% from the field in Game 2, including 25.7% from 3.  Strus, Merrill and Tyson went a combined 1-for-14 from 3 in Game 2.  Cleveland's role players will shoot it much better at home as they have all playoffs.

The Knicks have been an offensive juggernaut in these playoffs during their 9-game winning streak.  They have shot 50% or better from the field in eight of those nine games.  They will continue to have offensive success tonight against the Cavs to do their part to aid us in cashing this OVER 214 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Knicks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Cleveland ML -130

The Cavs were down 2-0 to the Detroit Pistons last series and came back to win in Game 7.  They have that memory to give them some belief they can still make this a series with the Knicks, starting with a Game 3 win at home today.

Home teams have dominated in the playoffs in all Cleveland games.  In fact, they are 13-3 SU in all games involving Cleveland.  I think we see the best effort of the playoffs yet from the Cavs at home in Game 3.  We see this every year in the playoffs teams down 2-0 in a series playing their first home game usually dominate.

There's reason to believe the Cavs are going to be much better at home here.  They shot 40% from the field in Game 1's OT loss to the Knicks, and they shot even worse in Game 2 at 38.8% from the field and 25.7% from 3.

Role players tend to shoot better at home, and that will be the case for the Cavs here.  Strus, Merrill and Tyson went a combined 1-for-14 from 3 in Game 2.  These are three shooters they are relying on to spread the Knicks out, and they will be much better at home.  Bet the Cavs on the Money Line in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio ML -125

The San Antonio Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  You have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time they lost two games in a row.  They have been the most resilient team in the NBA this season.

The Spurs have owned the Thunder this season going 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their seven meetings.  They won both meetings in San Antonio by 20 and 10 points.  After dominating throughout Game 1, the Spurs were within 5 points of the Thunder in the final minutes of Game 2 but lost by 9.  It was actually a very impressive effort that they didn't fold the tent after taking Game 1.

Now it will be the most raucous San Antonio crowd this season in a Friday night home game in the Western Conference Finals.  The Spurs have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA, and the Thunder have really struggled on the road in the playoffs over the last two seasons.

The injury situation favors the Spurs.  The Spurs lost Dylan Harper last game, and De'Aaron Fox sat out the first two games with an ankle injury.  There's a good chance Fox was just kept out as a precaution in Game 2 after they stole Game 1, and he will return tonight.  I've also heard Harper's injury is minor and he could play tonight, too.

The injuries are more concerning for the Thunder.  Jalen Williams (17.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.2 APG) suffered yet another hamstring injury in Game 2 and was ruled out.  He will almost certainly be out again.  And one of their playoff heroes thus far has been Ajay Mitchell (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG), and got banged up in Game 2 as well.  The Thunder got 12 of their 13 3-pointers from their bench in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again in San Antonio.  Bet the Spurs on the Money Line Friday. 

20* Cavs/Knicks Game 2 No-Brainer on New York -6

I was on the Cavs +7.5 in Game 1 and it was the worst beat I've suffered in the NBA in a very long time.  Leading by 22 with under 8 minutes remaining, the Cavs blew that 22-point lead and lost by 11 in OT, getting outscored 44-11 over the final 12-plus minutes.

It's the type of loss that will be tough for the Cavs to recover from heading into Game 2, and the type of loss that can beat them twice.  It's also a very tired Cavs team coming off two straight 7-game series with the Raptors and Pistons.  They only had one day off prior to this series with the Knicks, so they won't have anything left in the tank for them tonight.  Mobley, Harden and Mitchell all played over 40 minutes in Game 1.

A big reason I faded the Knicks in Game 1 is because I thought they'd be rusty with 8 days off since sweeping the 76ers last series.  They certainly showed that rust opening just 2-of-19 from 3.  But they finally got a rhythm in the 4th quarter, and now they carry that momentum into Game 2 tonight.  This is where that extra rest in between series pays major dividends for them.

The Knicks found something in the 4th quarter that is going to be there for them all series as long as James Harden continues to play big minutes, which he will.  They got Harden to switch onto Brunson almost every trip down the court in the 4th quarter and OT.  He is the worst defender left in the playoffs.  Donovan Mitchell was also hobbled with a knee injury in the 4th quarter that didn't get much attention on the broadcast, but it's a big reason he was a non-factor down the stretch.

I expect the Knicks to shoot it much better than they did in Game 1 and to run away with this one.  The Knicks are now 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games winning all eight by 6 points or more, and seven of them by double-digits.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder were certainly rusty in Game 1 when they lost outright to the San Antonio Spurs.  I was on the Spurs in Game 1 for the rust factor, but now I'm on the Thunder in Game 2 as they should be much sharper in the 2nd game back from having a week off since sweeping the Lakers.

The Thunder also had to implement Jalen Williams back into the lineup which was an adjustment after he missed all but the first two games of the playoffs.  Williams had 26 points in his return in Game 1, and the Thunder are a much more potent team with him than without him.  Look for their role players to step it up more in Game 2 tonight too.

This is where the extra rest will work in OKC's favor.  These teams are coming off a double-OT Game 1.  The Thunder won't feel the effects from it after getting a week off prior.  They are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  The spot really favors the Thunder tonight.

The Spurs only had two games off since beating the Timberwolves in six games.  It didn't affect them for Game 1, but it will surely affect them for Game 2 considering how many minutes their starters played in Game 1.  Vasssell played 50 minutes, Cassell 49, Wembenyama 48, Harper 46 and Champaignie 44.  Keldon Johnson was their biggest contributor off the bench.  They were without De'Aaron Fox for Game 1 and he may sit Game 2 as well with an ankle injury now that they won Game 1.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +7.5

I backed the Spurs in Game 1 last night against the Thunder largely because I thought the Thunder would be rusty after having a week off.  It came to fruition as the Spurs led nearly wire to wire and pulled off the upset in double-OT.

The Knicks figure to be even more rusty than the Thunder.  They have had to sit around since their last game on May 10th to wait for the Cavs/Pistons series to get over in 7 games.  The extra rest couldn't have come at a worst time for the Knicks as they were playing their best basketball of the season going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

I also think the Knicks are now getting too much respect after that run against two overmatched teams in the Hawks and 76ers.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers, a team that played them very tough in the regular season.  They lost by 2 and 8 in New York, while winning by 15 in their lone game in Cleveland.  That was also the only game since trading for James Harden, and the Cavs won by 15.

I normally would look to fade a team coming off a Game 7 like the Cavaliers.  But they made such easy work of the Pistons in a 125-94 win on Sunday that I think they'll still be very fresh for this Game 1 tonight.  I think that momentum from a Game 7 win on the road carries over into Game 1 at Madison Square Garden tonight.  

This series and specifically Game 1 is much closer than this 7.5-point spread would indicate.  The Cavs are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Knicks, so this is clearly a great matchup for them.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on San Antonio +7

The San Antonio Spurs went 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in five meetings with the Oklahoma City Thunder this season.  That includes their win over the Thunder in the NBA Cup, and they also won twice in OKC outright as underdogs.  The Spurs are clearly the toughest matchup for the Thunder and their biggest contenders to win the title this season.

The amazing part about the Spurs' domination of the Thunder was the fact that Victor Wembenyama was not fully healthy for most of those meetings and actually came off the bench in three of them.  Now Wembenyama is fully healthy for the playoffs and showing what he is capable of.  He is putting up 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per game in only 28.8 minutes per game due to injuries and blowouts.

This is the classic rest vs. rust factor.  The Spurs are still in a rhythm after beating the Timberwolves in six games and have had two days off since that series.  I think it's an advantage for them at least for Game 1 tonight that they remain in a rhythm.

The Thunder have been off since May 11th, getting a full week of rest in between series.  I think that's too much.  I also think they couldn't have had an easier path to the Western Conference Finals, so this will be a shock to the system for them having to face the Spurs.  They beat a Suns team that was beat up and missing several key players, and a Lakers team that was also beat up and missing Luka Doncic.  The Spurs will be fully healthy, and they are a dangerous team when that's the case.  Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Monday.

25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 206.5

Winner-take-all Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs tend to be much lower-scoring.  That's especially the case in the 2nd round of the playoffs or later.  And this Game 7 between the Pistons and Cavs will be no different tonight.

Detroit is a defensive-minded team so it's no surprised that Detroit home games would be 5-2 UNDER if not for OT in these playoffs.  That includes 3-0 UNDER in this series if not for the one OT in Game 5 that was sitting at 206 combined points at the end of regulation.

The Pistons shot 52.4% from the field and 44.4% from 3-point range in Game 6 and it still stayed UNDER the total in Cleveland.  They clearly aren't going to shoot that well again.  Defensively, they have figured out the Cavs and have held them to 45% or worse shooting from the field in five of six games in this series.

Officials tend to swallow the whistle even more in Game 7's and let the players decide the game on the court.  That will lead to less FT attempts for both teams tonight.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and defensive intensity will be maxed out with what's at stake.  I don't expect either team to top 100 points tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Spurs/Timberwolves Game 6 No-Brainer on Minnesota +6

The Minnesota Timberwolves have shot worse than 40% from the field in all three of their losses to the San Antonio Spurs in this series.  They shot 45.6% and 44.7% in both wins.  So they have yet to really light it up in this series, and yet they are still very much alive down 3-2 heading home for Game 6.

I trust Chris Finch to make the proper adjustments with two days off in between games for the first time in this series.  He is the better, more experience head coach in this series, and he's a big reason the Timberwolves have reached the Western Conference Finals in consecutive seasons.  This is the most underrated team in the NBA over the last couple playoffs.

The Timberwolves are the more banged up team, so getting two days off will help them more than it will the Spurs as well.  Anthony Edwards looks back to close to 100% scoring 32 and 36 points in two of his last three games.  Having Ayo Dosunmu back healthy is big as well as he has scored double-digits in three games that he has played in this series.  And Naz Reid remains a matchup nightmare for the Spurs in their small ball lineups.

No question this young Spurs team is loaded with talent, but these closeout games especially on the road are very difficult for young teams who haven't been there before.  I trust the Timberwolves to handle the big moment better tonight, and getting a fully 6 points at home is tremendous value for Game 6.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Pistons/Cavs Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 210.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  No question the Cavs and Pistons know each other inside and out by now, and points will be very hard to come by in Game 6.  This is a closeout game with the Cavs trying to close them out, and the Pistons trying to stave off elimination.  Defensive intensity will be at max for this one as a result.

Game 5 was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for just 206 combined points before going to OT.  The OVER is 3-2 as a result, but the UNDER would be 3-2 if not for OT.  And both teams shot it pretty good in Game 5 with the Pistons at 44.2% from the field, 33.3% from 3 and 90% from the FT line.  The Cavs were 45% from the field, 40% from 3 and 81.6% from the FT line.

It's very unlikely both teams shoot it that well again in Game 6 tonight.  And as a result, this game should stay well UNDER the 210.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER Friday.

20* Cavs/Pistons Game 5 No-Brainer on Detroit -3.5

Home teams are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in all Cleveland home games in these playoffs.  The Cavs have been a terrible road team for months.  They have covered the spread just 3 times on the road since the All-Star Break, and those came against the tanking Grizzlies, Mavs & Pelicans.

The Cavs went 30-of-34 from the FT line while the Pistons went 9-of-12 from the FT line in Game 4 which was the difference.  After a favorable whistle for the Cavs in Cleveland, I expect the Pistons to get the benefit of the whistle in Detroit tonight.  They will be able to get away with playing with their usual physicality at home.

The Pistons won each of the first two games at home in this series by double-digits.  They were identical 3.5-point favorites in both of those games.  Oddsmakers continue to fail to adjust for just how much home-court advantage means in these Cleveland games.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Spurs Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -9

The San Antonio Spurs are a perfect 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss this season.  They have been a very resilient team, and we saw that resiliency on display in Game 2 after an upset loss in Game 1.  They came back to crush the Timberwolves by 38 points at home in Game 2 and led by as many as 48 points.

Consider the Spurs were 11.5-point favorites in Game 1 and 10.5-point favorites in Game 2 at home.  They were 5.5-point favorites in Game 3 and 4 on the road.  Now they are only 9-point favorites for Game 5, which is too big of an adjustment toward Minnesota.

The Spurs probably were on their way to winning Game 4 before Victor Wembenyama was ejected after throwing an elbow to Naz Reid with 8:39 remaining in the 2nd quarter.  The Spurs didn't have their best player for nearly three quarters of that game.  With him back and the Spurs fully healthy, I expect them to a respond in a big way tonight.

In the two games the Spurs have lost in this series, they shot just 27.8% from 3 in Game 1 and 23.1% from 3 in Game 4.  They are due some positive shooting regression tonight as well.  They had a chance to win both of those games even though they shot so poorly from 3, which shows just how good of a team they are.  Wembenyama will be fresh tonight, and he'll make a statement here as his teammates follow suit.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Cleveland -3.5

The home team is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in all Cleveland playoff games this season.  They have been dominant at home and terrible on the road.  I look for them to even this series at 2-2 with a win and cover at home again tonight.

When you consider the Cavs closed as 5.5-point home favorites in Game 3, and now they are only 3.5-point home favorites in Game 4, there is clearly value on them tonight.  This 2-point adjustment down is unwarranted, especially since the Cavs are fully healthy and it's not injury related at all.

James Harden gained a ton of confidence by scoring 7 straight points in the final minutes to lead the Cavs to victory in Game 3.  Donovan Mitchell showed he's a superstar with 35 points in that critical game.  And role players for the Cavs played much better at home, which is the case for them consistently.

The Pistons still struggle to generate easy offense.  Cade Cunningham is their lone creator, and the Cavs will continue to disrupt him as the series goes on and get better and better at defending him.  Cunningham went 10-of-27 from the field and committed 8 turnovers in Game 3.  I can't see Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson continuing to be as effective as they have been thus far in this series, either.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* Spurs/Timberwolves Game 4 No-Brainer on Minnesota +4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves upset the Denver Nuggets in six games last series.  They upset the Spurs 104-102 in Game 1 as well.  But two straight very poor shooting performances has put them in a 2-1 hole and in a must-win Game 4 at home tonight.  I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Timberwolves shot 39.8% in Game 2 and even worse at 38.4% in Game 3.  Yet they still had a shot to beat the Spurs in the final minutes in Game 3 in a 7-point defeat.  They are due some positive shooting regression, and having both Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu back healthy makes all the difference for this team.

Edwards had 32 points in Game 3 to show he's still the superstar they need him to be.  But the role players weren't as good as Dosunmu was returning from injury and went 4-of-12 for 11 points.  He will be much better in Game 4, and everyone else will take their games up a notch as well with what's at stake.  Jaden McDaniels went 5-of-22 last game and will be much better.

The Spurs are still a very young team and this will be the toughest environment most of them have every played in on the road.  They could relax a little here knowing they have earned home-court advantage back with consecutive victories.  There will be no relax from Minnesota.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Knicks/76ers Game 4 No-Brainer on Philadelphia +1.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were down 3-1 to the Boston Celtics last series and won the final three games to advance.  They won't be intimidated by being down 3-0 to the Knicks now, and I fully expect them to believe they can still make this a series.

I think the 76ers have played some of their worst basketball of the season in the first three games of this series with the Knicks.  That 7-game series took something out of them, and they just haven't played up to their potential to this point.  I think we get their best game yet in Game 4 today.

The Knicks have shot at least 50% from the field in every game thus far while the 76ers have shot 45% or less from the field in all three games.  No question the 76ers are due some shooting regression in this one.

OG Anunoby is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of Game 3.  I think with a 3-0 series lead, they will sit him again.  He has been one of their best players in these playoffs scoring at least 17 points in six consecutive games, including 29 points twice.  It's a big loss for them that didn't quite come to fruition in Game 3.  It will be felt in Game 4 today if he doesn't go again.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Cleveland -4.5

The home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in all Cleveland playoff games this season.  They have been dominant at home and terrible on the road.  This is the classic Game 3 home team down 0-2 that has been a very profitable bet long-term in the NBA.  

The team down 2-0 tends to play with a sense of urgency and get better games from their role players at home.  The team up 2-0 tends to relax a little on that lead and not go for the throat in this spot.  And it's their first road game in the series, and an immediate shock to the system.

The biggest difference here is the Pistons are shooting lights out from 3 thus far and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, so regression is inevitable.  They shot 38.5% from 3 in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2.  The Cavs shot 36.8% from 3 in Game 1 and 21.9% in Game 2, yet still had a chance to win both of those games tied in the 4th quarter.  The Cavs will shoot it much better at home tonight, and the Pistons will go cold.  Bet the Cavs Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

This line is an overreaction from the Spurs winning 133-95 in Game 2.  The Spurs were in must-win mode after getting upset by the Timberwolves at home in Game 1.  Minnesota simply did not show up as I predicted, content with a 1-1 split.  The Spurs were 'all in' and it showed.

Now it's the Timberwolves' turn to respond here in Game 3 at home.  They have been awesome at home in these playoffs going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS last series against the Nuggets with the three wins all coming in blowout fashion by 17, 16 and 12 points.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the playoffs.

The Spurs are a young team that will face their most hostile atmosphere ever in the playoffs.  I don't expect them to respond very well to it in Game 3.  The Timberwolves have Anthony Edwards back healthy, and there's a good chance they'll get Ayo Dosunmu tonight as well, but they have proven they can win without him.

The Spurs went with their small ball lineup in the 4th quarter of Game 1 that absolutely changed the game.  It's one of the most deadly lineups in the NBA.  They didn't use that card in Game 2 because the game got out of hand.  Chris Finch will pull that card for Game 3 tonight, and it will be effective again.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia 76ers ML +110

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They are desperate for a win down 2-0 to the Knicks and playing their first home game in Game 3.  It will be an 'all in' effort for the 76ers, and the Knicks will relax having a 2-0 lead in this series.

Joel Embiid sat out Game 2 and the 76ers nearly upset the Knicks without him.  They have played well in the playoffs without him going 4-2 ATS in the six games they have played without Embiid.  So even though I expect him to return tonight after resting in Game 2, I expect the 76ers to win this game either way.

The Knicks had some injuries of their own suffered in Game 2.  OG Anunoby suffered a hamstring injury that could keep him out for this game if the Knicks decide to play it cautiously with that 2-0 lead.  Anunoby has been a monster for the Knicks in the playoffs scoring at least 17 points in six consecutive games, so it would be a huge loss.  Josh Hart also has an injured thumb that he's going to play through as well.

The 76ers are 10-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less this season.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Friday.

15* Lakers/Thunder Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 211.5

The Lakers are just so short-handed and terrible offensively that they have had to play slower and rely on picking it up defensively to get this far.  The UNDER is 5-2 in all Lakers playoff games and would be 6-1 if not for one OT game.  They have scored 101 or fewer points at the end of regulation in five consecutive games coming in.

They were fortunate to even to get 98 points against the Thunder in Game 1 as they had a lot go right for them offensively.  But they remain without Luka Doncic, and now Luke Kennard is questionable after suffering an injury in Game 1.  I fully expect the top defensive team in the league in the Thunder to shut them down again.

But the Lakers have been elite defensively and JJ Redick has really impressed me with his game plans.  They held the Rockets to 101 points or fewer at the end of regulation in five of six games last series.  And they just held the Thunder to 108 points in Game 1 despite the Thunder shooting a solid 49.4% from the field and 43.3% from 3.

The Lakers double-teamed SGA regularly when he got over half court to get the ball out of his hands.  I think they will continue to do so, and that will keep him off the FT line and forced others to try and beat them, which takes the Thunder out of their comfort zone.  I think they can hold the Thunder in check enough again to keep this UNDER 211.5 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Spurs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -9.5

I was on the Timberwolves in Game 1 who closed as 10.5-point dogs.  The spot really favored the Timberwolves as they had just the right amount of time coming off their Game 6 win over the Nuggets.  The Spurs had too much time off after making easy work of the Blazers Round 1.

The Spurs showed a lot of rust in Game 1 of this series shooting just 44.8% from the field and 10-of-36 (27.8%) from 3-point range.  Wembenyama and Fox combined to go 0-for-12 from 3, and Stephon Castle was in foul trouble and actually fouled out with a few minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  No question the Spurs are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

The Spurs are a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a loss as they have been resilient all season.  They will be the team playing with a sense of urgency tonight, and I expect them to blow out Minnesota.

The Timberwolves are content with a split in San Antonio.  They will not be playing with the same kind of urgency they did in Game 1.  They also have two of their best players hobbled right now in Edwards and Dosunmu.  And Mike Conley isn't going to make four 3-pointers again.  The spot really favors the Spurs in Game 2.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +8

I locked this play in when Joel Embiid was probable.  It has since moved 2.5 points from +8 to +10.5 without him.  I would still play it at +10.5 without him.

Game 1 was a terrible spot for the 76ers.  They were just coming off coming back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Celtics in Game 7.  They only had one day off in between series, and they simply didn't show up for Game 1.

The 76ers also got blown out by the Celtics in Game 1 last series after advancing to the playoffs from the play-in.  They bounced back with a 111-97 win as 13.5-point road dogs in Game 2. That was even without Joel Embiid in the lineup as he didn't appear until Game 4 last series.  So they are used to playing without him.

The Knicks shot 63.1% from the field and 19-of-37 (51.4%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  It's safe to say they are due some regression in the shooting department and will not come close to matching those numbers in Game 2.  We also saw the Knicks lose outright to the Hawks in Game 2 last series after blowing them out in Game 1.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Pistons Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 215.5

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons are coming off Game 7's on Sunday.  That means they only had one day in between games to prepare for one another.  That lack of preparation will favor offense, and Game 1's historically have been the highest-scoring games in playoff series mostly for this reason.

The totals for the four regular season meetings between the Cavs and Pistons were set at 231.5, 239.5, 226.5 and 228.5.  This total has been set at 215.5, which is 11 points less than the lowest total and 24 points less than the highest total between these teams in the regular season.  That fact alone shows there's value on the OVER as this is too big of an adjustment down for the playoffs.

And this is basically the first time that both teams have been fully healthy.  Donovan Mitchell missed two of those regular season meetings.  James Harden didn't play in any of them.  Yet the Pistons and Cavs combined for at least 222 at the end of regulation in three of the four regular season meetings.

Both teams benefited from injuries to their opponents in the 1st round that also kept those games more lower scoring than they should have been.  Franz Wagner was injured for the Magic and missed the final three games of that series.  Immanuel Quickley didn't play a single game for the Raptors, and he is their offensive engine.  Brandon Ingram also missed the last couple games due to injury.  Both of these offenses are much more potent than what their opponents saw in Round 1.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Minnesota +12.5

The spreads for the three regular season meetings between the Timberwolves and Spurs were all -5 or less.  This spread for Game 1 has been inflated with the Spurs -12.5 at the time I locked this play in.  I locked it in as soon as Anthony Edwards looked good in shootaround with a decent chance to play tonight.  But I like the Timberwolves either way.

The Timberwolves went 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their three regular season meetings with the Spurs with their lone loss coming by just 3 points on the road.  They actually won two games against the Nuggets without both Edwards and DiVincenzo for at least half of Game 4 and for the full game in Game 6. The Timberwolves even won Game 6 without Ayo Dosunmu, the breakout player of that series.

Now both Edwards and Dosunmu are questionable for Game 1.  It would be a huge bonus to have one or both of them available, and with four days off since that Denver series, there's a good chance both will feel good enough to go tonight.  If not, the Timberwolves have proven their depth and can still hang without them for Game 1.

I think rust might be a factor for the Spurs after making easy work of the Blazers in five games in their last series.  They have been off since April 28th.  This is still a young team without any playoff experience, so the road is only going to get harder for them going forward.  They should not be favored by 12.5 against Minnesota in Game 1.  Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Magic/Pistons Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 202.5

The Orlando Magic were already one of the worst offensive teams in these playoffs.  But losing Franz Wagner 19.9 PPG has really hurt them.  They weren't the same in Game 6 falling 93-79 to the Pistons for just 172 combined points.  It was the 3rd time in this series these teams have combined for 182 or fewer points.  Now this total is 30 points higher than that at 202.5.

Game 7 UNDERS have notoriously been a good bet in the NBA playoffs.  Teams feel the extra pressure and it tends to really hurt them offensively, but the defensive intensity is at an all-time high.  That will be the case in Game 7 here in a matchup between two terrible shooting teams, and two elite defensive teams that are also big and physical.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

15* 76ers/Celtics Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +8.5

The books are failing to adjust for the fact that the Philadelphia 76ers have Joel Embiid back healthy and playing at an MVP level.  He made his playoff debut in a Game 4 loss, and since then the 76ers have thrived with a 113-97 win as 10.5-point road dogs in Game 5 and a 106-93 home win as 5.5-point dogs in Game 6.

Embiid finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists in Game 4, 33 points, 4 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 5 and 19 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 6.  He opens everything up for them, and the Celtics don't have an answer for him as they have tried everything.  Their bigs are limited offensively when they are on the court, and when they go small ball they get crushed inside.  

I don't think they'll magically come up with an answer in Game 7, and this one should go down to the wire so getting 8.5 points is tremendous value.  Jayson Tatum is banged up even though he is expected to give it a go tonight, too.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* Lakers/Rockets Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 205.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and the Rockets without Kevin Durant.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 3 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.

Game 4 was the outlier with the Rockets winning 115-96 for 211 combined points, barely sneaking over the total.  The Rockets shot 50% from the field and the Lakers 48.1% and it still only reached 211.  It was the blowout nature that allowed both defenses to relax in the 4Q and squeak over the total.

Game 5 was back to reality with the Rockets beating the Lakers 99-93 for 192 combined points.  Four of five meetings in this series have seen 205 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation, and that should hold true for this one as well.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  I expect this game to be close, and for the defensive intensity to be there for 4 quarters for both teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 6 No-Brainer on Toronto +4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a terrible road team in the playoffs over the last several seasons.  They lost outright as favorites by 22 in Game 3 and by 4 in Game 4 in Toronto.  But most alarming was them being life and dead with the Raptors at home in Game 5.

The Raptors only lost 125-120 in Cleveland in Game 5 despite a lot of things going against them.  Brandon Ingram got hurt early in that game, and the Cavs shot 53.1% from the field and 50% from 3.  The Raptors were able to hang tough by outrebounding the Cavs by 13, and they have really been outworking them on the boards to turn this series around.

Too much is being made of the Ingram injury.  He has actually been a liability for the Raptors in this series, shooting it terribly.  Barrett and Barnes are playing the best basketball of their careers to keep the Raptors competitive in this series.  And I expect them to win outright tonight.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* Celtics/76ers Game 6 No-Brainer on OVER 212

Joel Embiid is back for the 76ers and playing at an MVP level since making his 2026 NBA playoff debut in Game 4.  He had 26 points and 6 assists in 34 minutes in a 128-96 loss to the Celtics in Game 4 that saw 224 combined points.

Embiid was even better in Game 5, going for 33 points and 8 assists in 39 minutes of a 113-97 victory and 210 combined points.  It was a travesty that game did not go over the total as the Celtics missed their final 16 shots of the game and scored just 11 points total in the 4th quarter.

The 76ers should have another very efficient offensive game here led by Embiid and Maxey in Game 6.  But the Celtics should be much better offensively after shooting just 40.4% from the field, 28.2% from 3 and 60.9% from the FT line in Game 5.  They couldn't have shot it worse.  They are an elite shooting team and will hang a big number on the 76ers in Game 6 to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 212 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 3 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.

Game 4 was the outlier with the Rockets winning 115-96 for 211 combined points, barely sneaking over the total.  The Rockets shot 50% from the field and the Lakers 48.1% and it still only reached 211.  It was the blowout nature that allowed both defenses to relax in the 4Q and squeak over the total.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  I expect this game to be close, and for the defensive intensity to be there for 4 quarters for both teams.  Three of four meetings in this series have seen 205 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation, and that should hold true for this one as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Pistons UNDER 212

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall and have been in playoff mode in all seven games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  Game 3 was the outlier with the Magic winning 113-105 for 218 combined points.  The Magic shot 15-of-33 (45.5%) from 3 in Game 3 including 7-of-9 from Desmond Bane.

Game 4 the shooting came back down to reality in a 94-88 win by Orlando and just 182 combined points.  Now the books have set this total at 212 for Game 5, which is 30 more points than Game 4 finished with.  This discrepancy is too much as these are two of the worst shooting teams left in the playoffs.

Franz Wagner (19.9 PPG) suffered a calf injury late in Game 4 that will likely keep him out for Game 5.  That's a big blow to the Magic offensively, but he's a liability defensively so they should be even better on that end.  Wagner had scored at least 17 points in seven of his past nine games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have the worst offense in the playoffs, but they were the best defense in the NBA over the final 15 games of the regular season as they were just trying to sneak into the playoffs.

That has played out in this series with the UNDER going 3-1 in four games with 209 or fewer combined points in all three games.  This total of 217.5 has been set too high again for Game 4.  The Blazers are scoring just 101.3 points per game in this series and the Spurs will lock them down again.

The Spurs have scored 112 points per game in this series despite shooting lights out from 3 the entire series, which is unlikely to continue.  They shot 45.5% from 3 in Game 1, 48.5% from 3 in Game 2 and 42.4% from 3 in Game 4.  They can't possibly shoot it any better, and yet three of the four games saw 209 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Pistons/Magic NBC ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -2.5

The Pistons have been a very resilient team.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  That includes their 98-83 win in Game 2 following an upset home loss to the Magic.

Orlando bounced back with a 113-105 home win in Game 3.  They were life and death with the Pistons with just a few minutes remaining when they actually trailed 105-104, but closed the game on a 9-0 run.  They were life and death despite shooting 15-of-33 (45.5%) from 3-point range including 7-of-9 from Desmond Bane alone, and that's not going to happen again for this poor shooting team.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pistons/Magic UNDER 215.5

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall and have been in playoff mode in all seven games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  Game 3 was the outlier with the Magic winning 113-105 for 218 combined points.  The Magic shot 15-of-33 (45.5%) from 3 in Game 3 including 7-of-9 from Desmond Bane.  That's not going to happen again.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on, the low-scoring each game tends to be.  This is a first to 100 wins type of game tonight in Game 4.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Lakers/Rockets NBC No-Brainer on UNDER 208

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 4 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.  I will stick to the UNDER 208 in Game 4 tonight with Durant and Reaves both questionable, though I expect both to sit again.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Knicks/Hawks NBC No-Brainer on New York -2

The New York Knicks are very close to being up 3-0 in this series.  Instead, they have lost two straight 1-point games to the Hawks and trail 2-1.  Now they will be playing with desperation in Game 4, and I trust this veteran team to show up in a big way and get the win and cover today.

Playoff road teams off a 1-point loss have gone 17-6 ATS since 2011, including 7-2 ATS when favored.  I think it's promising that the Knicks shot 28.6% from 3 in Game 3 while the Hawks shot 39.4% yet the Knicks only lost by 1.  They are due some positive shooting regression in Game 4 today.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* Thunder/Suns NBC No-Brainer on Phoenix +9.5

The Phoenix Suns showed they could hang in Game 2 with a 120-107 loss as 16.5-point road dogs.  They really made some headway once Jalen Williams (17.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) exited with an injury that will now keep him out for multiple weeks.  Their best shooter in Isaiah Joe (11.0 PPG, 42% 3-pointers) is also doubtful today.

The Thunder are a deep team and dealt with injuries all season, but these two injuries are not being factored into this line enough.  Neither is the desperation the Suns will be playing with today trying to get back in this series.  This is the best spot to back the Suns in this series.

The Thunder were terrible on the road in the playoffs last season and that will continue today.  Home teams in the playoffs off a loss have been a great bet this year, too.  The spot really favors the Suns today.  Bet the Suns Saturday.

20* Pistons/Magic Game 3 Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 214.5

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games overall and have been in playoff mode in all six games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  The books have been way off with the totals in this series, and they are off again here setting Game 3 at 214.5.  These teams will struggle to get to 200 combined points today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Lakers/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.  Now Durant has been downgraded to questionable for Game 3 with that same knee injury, and he clearly won't be 100% if he plays.

The Rockets have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season and will shut down the Lakers in Game 3 at home.  The Lakers have been dominant defensively since losing Reaves and Doncic.  They have held their last five opponents to just 95 points per game and will limit the Rockets again.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +3

Teams down 2-0 in a series and returning home have been a great bet in the NBA for years.  The team up 2-0 tends to relax, and the team down 2-0 tends to play like they need it like blood.  That will be the case for the Raptors and Cavs tonight.

Brandon Ingram will have a bounce back game after being terrible in the first two games of this series.  Both Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett will continue to play well, and the Raptors should get more from their role players in the comfort of their home fans.  Not to mention, there's a chance Immanuel Quickley returns from a hamstring injury after sitting the first two games of this series, which would be a huge boost.

No question the Cavs are due some regression in the shooting departments after hitting 54.3% in Game 1 and 53% in Game 2.  They have also shot better than 40% from 3 in this series thus far.  Their role players won't be nearly as comfortable on the road in this one.  

The Raptors won all three regular season meetings with the Cavs and have had to play four of five meetings on the road thus far.  They get their revenge here and get back in this series with an outright victory in Game 3, though we'll take the +3 for some insurance.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* Magic/Pistons ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -8.5

The Detroit Pistons ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating in the regular season only trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder in that department.  After a lackluster defensive effort in Game 1, expect the Pistons to come out with their hair on fire defensively and to shut down the Magic tonight.

The Pistons got 39 points from Cade Cunningham in Game 1 but not much from anyone else.  Jalen Duren in particular was disappointing with 8 points and 7 rebounds on only 4 shot attempts.  Expect him to have a massive bounce back game. I also expect the Pistons to get more from their role players, most notably their three best shooters in Harris, Robinson and Huerter who were non-factors in Game 1.

I love backing good teams like the Pistons coming off a loss in the playoffs.  Teams who lost Game 1 as a favorite have gone 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS in Game 2 in the last 13 series.  Teams that lost Game 1 as a favorite of -7 or more have gone 33-8 SU & 25-12-4 ATS in Game 2 over the last 20 years.  This is the ultimate bounce back blowout spot for Detroit tonight.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pistons UNDER 219

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall and have been in playoff mode in all five games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

I expect a big defensive effort from the Pistons tonight after losing Game 1.  I expect them to hold the Magic to 100 points or fewer to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 219 ticket.  This total has been set way too high.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Lakers NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.  Even if Durant returns for Game 2, he won't be anywhere near 100%.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That's clearly not going to happen again.  Neither is Luke Kennard scoring 27 points on 5-of-5 3-point shooting.  The Rockets will make the proper adjustments in this one and really limit the Lakers offensively to pave the way to us cashing this UNDER 208.5 ticket.

The Lakers have been dominant defensively since losing Reaves and Doncic.  They have held their last four opponents to 95.3 points per game.  I think they can hold the Rockets down again even if Durant returns.  LeBron will milk every second of the shot clock in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Spurs NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 220.5

The Portland Trail Blazers ranked 1st in the NBA in defensive rating over their final 15 games of the regular season.  The Spurs ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating for the entire season.  These are two elite defensive teams, and that played out in Game 1.

The Spurs beat the Blazers 111-98 for just 209 combined points in Game 1.  The Spurs even shot lights out from 3 going 15-of-33 (45.5%) yet still only scored 111 points.  The Blazers shot just 26.3% from 3, but they were the 3rd-worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA in the regular season so it's not what they do.

The Blazers rely on midrange jump shots and getting to the rim and getting fouled.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them as the Spurs committed the 3rd-fewest fouls in the NBA in the regular season.  The Blazers also got their first taste of Victor Wembenyama after dodging him in their three regular season meetings.  It did not go well for them scoring just 98 points in Game 1, and it won't go well for them tonight either.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blazers and Spurs with 217 or fewer combined points in four of those six meetings.  This total of 220.5 has been set too high again for Game 2 tonight.  The Spurs won't shoot that well again, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7.5

The Denver Nuggets have notoriously been great in Game 1 and terrible in Game 2 after winning in Game 1 at home.  They have actually lost four of their last five Game 2 home games outright after winning Game 1 of a playoff series.  I think they are ripe for the picking tonight.

The Timberwolves had it down to a 2-point game late in the 4th quarter in Game 1 before letting go of the rope in a 116-105 loss.  I think they come back with a better effort in Game 2, especially after Anthony Edwards shook off the rust from missing so much time down the stretch of the regular season.

The Nuggets got a favorable whistle in Game 1 and capitalized by going 30-of-33 from the FT line.  The Timberwolves went just 14-of-19.  I think the whistle will be a little more favorable for Minnesota in the rematch tonight, which will allow them to stay within this 7.5-point spread and possibly pull off the upset.  I also trust head coach Chris Finch to make the proper adjustments, which is something he has been great at in getting the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals in consecutive seasons.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Monday.

15* Hawks/Knicks NBC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6.5

The Atlanta Hawks lost 113-102 at New York in Game 1 as 6-point dogs.  I don't think this adjustment up to 6.5 is warranted for Game 2, and I'll gladly take the value in this clear motivated bounce-back spot.

The Hawks shot 14-of-37 (38%) from 3 and 12-of-19 (63%) from the FT line in Game 1.  The Knicks shot 12-of-25 (48%) from 3 and 25-of-30 (83%) from the FT line.  No question the Knicks are not going to shoot it any better than they did, and if anything the Hawks are due some positive shooting regression especially from the FT line.

The Hawks are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games overall and were one of the best teams in the East down the stretch when they were healthy, which is what they are now heading into Game 2.  One of their losses came in a game they rested starters against the Heat, too.  And two of them came by 6 points or fewer.  I really like this Atlanta team and think this series is far from over.  They are live underdogs here in Game 2.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* Raptors/Cavs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +9.5

Everything went Cleveland's way in Game 1 and they still only won by 13.  The Cavs shot 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and got a playoff career high 24 points from Max Strus.  I have to think they won't shoot that well again, and the Raptors will make some adjustments to how they defend Harden and Mitchell and not play as much drop coverage.

Immanuel Quickley sat out Game 1 with a hamstring injury.  He practiced on Sunday and there's a chance he returns in Game 2, but this line indicates he isn't playing.  Consider the Cavs were 8.5-point favorites for Game 1 and now 9.5-point favorites for Game 2.  That adjustment up isn't warranted in my opinion, and if Quickley does play this line will crash, but I don't think it goes any higher either way.

The Raptors went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Cavaliers in the regular season including two outright upsets on the road.  They won all three meetings by double-digits, so they clearly match up well with the Cavs even though it didn't show in Game 1.  I think it shows in Game 2 tonight and this one goes down to the wire.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Monday.

20* Blazers/Spurs NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -10.5

The San Antonio Spurs are legit title contenders that won the season series with the Oklahoma City Thunder to prove how good they can be.  Yet the Spurs are only 10.5-point home favorites over the Blazers, while the Thunder are 14-point home favorites over the Suns.  The Suns were favored over the Blazers in the play-in.

The Blazers came back from double-digits down against the Suns in the 4th quarter to earn a 114-110 win and the 7th seed in the West.  Teams that qualify for the playoffs through the play-in have notoriously been a bad bet in Game 1.  They tend to exhale, and I think that will be the case for the Blazers here, while the Spurs are rested and will be a full go from the jump.

It's amazing that Portland played San Antonio three times this season and Victor Wembenyama didn't play in any of those three games.  The Spurs still went 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with two double-digits victories.  I think the Blazers having to see Wembenyama in person for the first time this season in this series is a huge disadvantage to them.  They don't know what's coming and just how hard this guy is to deal with.

The problem with the Blazers is they are the worst shooting team in the playoffs.  They are the 3rd-worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 34.3%.  Only the Nets and Kings were worse in the regular season.  This is a terrible matchup for them because they rely on getting to the rim, and Wembenyama erases that.  Portland also relies on shooting FT's, and San Antonio ranks 4th in the NBA in fewest fouls per game.  Nightmare matchup for the Blazers starting with Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* Magic/Pistons NBC No-Brainer on Detroit -8.5

The No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons are the most disrespected team entering the NBA playoffs.  They are the 4th-favorite to win the East to show just how undervalued they are.  And I think they are being undervalued again as only 8.5-point home favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Pistons are fully healthy coming into the playoffs and showed off their depth without Cade Cunningham going 9-1 ATS without him down the stretch.  But Cunningham returned for a couple games to shake the rust off, and he should be a full go heading into the playoffs.  The Pistons rank 2nd in net rating in the NBA only behind the Thunder in the regular season.  And they had the No. 1 seed clinched for their last several games to boot.

This is a great spot to fade the Magic.  They lost by 12 to the 76ers on Wednesday before bouncing back with a home win over the Hornets on Friday to earn the 8th seed.  Teams that make it into the playoffs from the play-in tend to have a letdown in that first real playoff game, especially when listed as the 8th seed.  I think that will be the case for the Magic here as they take a breather, while the Pistons are a full go from the jump.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* Suns/Thunder ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -14

The Phoenix Suns are a tired, beat up team.  After losing to the Blazers at home on Tuesday, they came back and beat the short-handed Warriors at home on Friday.  Now they have just one day to get ready for the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Teams like the Suns that qualify for the playoffs through the play-in are a notoriously bad bet in Game 1 of their first playoff series.  They tend to exhale and not show up.  I know the rested Thunder are going to show up and be a full go from the jump and put it on the Suns in this one.

Phoenix played without Mark Williams (11.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG) in the win over the Warriors on Friday, and he is unlikely to be healthy enough to play against the Thunder here two days later.  Grayson Allen (16.5 PPG) is questionable as well.  They will miss Williams' size big time against the Thunder, and if Allen sits they will miss his shooting, but I like the Thunder to roll either way.

In two meetings where the Thunder were motivated this season they beat the Suns 138-89 in the NBA Cup and 136-109 on the road on February 11th.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Suns in which they didn't rest starters.  This is a terrible matchup for Phoenix.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Raptors/Cavs NBA Playoffs Opener on Toronto +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have consistently disappointed in the playoffs despite getting a lot of love going in every year since they traded for Donovan Mitchell.  That appears to be the case again this postseason with the Cavs opening up as massive 8.5-point favorites over the Toronto Raptors.

The Cavs have some nice pieces in Mitchell, Mobley and Allen, but I just don't trust James Harden to get it done in the playoffs.  He hasn't gotten it done his entire career, and now he's on his last leg and will have the ball in his hands the most.  I just don't think it's a good look for the Cavs, who have underachieved all season in the big favorite role.  Cleveland is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games as a favorite of 7 points or more.

The Raptors are a gritty team who have overcome injuries all season to get the 5th seed in the East and earn this matchup with the Cavs.  Brandon Ingram has gelled with his new team as the season has gone on and is the reliable scorer they were missing.  Scottie Barnes is one of the best two-way players in the NBA, and RJ Barrett is one of the most underrated guards in the league.  And having Poeltl healthy to battle Allen inside is huge.

The Raptors went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Cavs this season including two outright upset road wins in Cleveland.  None of these games were even close as the Raptors won all three meetings by 11 points or more, and now they are catching 8.5 points in Game 1. There's clear value here on Toronto.  Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Hornets/Magic NBA Play-In No-Brainer on Charlotte -3

The Charlotte Hornets want to be here, while the Orlando Magic just want their season to be over.  There's truth behind the rumors that certain players want their head coach to be fired after the season, and if it's not Paulo Banchero I don't know who it is.  The guy is sabotaging their team by taking terrible shots over and over again.

Banchero went 7-of-22 and 0-of-5 from 3-point range in their 109-97 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in their first play-in game.  That was a 76ers team missing Joel Embiid, too.  Suggs went 1-of-9 in the loss as well.  Those are two players that have seem disgruntled.  Franz Wagner is nowhere near 100%, and this team is too reliant on Desmond Bane to do the bulk of the scoring.

The Hornets rank 8th in net rating this season while the Magic rank 17th.  The seven teams ranked ahead of the Hornets in net rating are the Thunder, Pistons, Spurs, Celtics, Knicks, Rockets and Nuggets.  They are in elite company.  They have four shooters on the court at all times that are better than anyone the Magic have.

This has been a terrible matchup for the Magic this season, and a great one for the Hornets.  Indeed, the Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Magic, winning by 27 and 15 points in the two meetings in Orlando, and by 19 points at home.  These games haven't even been close, and this one won't be, either.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Warriors/Clippers NBA Play-In No-Brainer on UNDER 220.5

Defensive intensity is very high in these play-in games.  They also tend to be played at a much slower pace than the regular season.  Oddsmakers struggle to set these totals and base them too closely to the regular season numbers.

The Clippers rank 28th in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Warriors are in no hurry either ranking 18th in pace.  These teams just played on April 12th three days ago, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

This has been a dead nuts UNDER series.  Indeed, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with the only meeting that went over due to OT.  The Warriors and Clippers have combined for 216 or fewer points in six of those eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Blazers/Suns NBA Play-In No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

Defensive intensity is very high in these play-in games.  They also tend to be played at a much slower pace than the regular season.  Oddsmakers struggle to set these totals and base them too closely to the regular season numbers.

The Suns rank 24th in pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  Both teams are much better defensively than they are offensively.  The Suns are 9th in defensive rating while the Blazers are 12th.  The Suns are 17th in offensive rating while the Blazers are 21st.

In their most recent meeting on February 22nd, the Blazers beat the Suns 92-77 for just 171 combined points.  There are some key injuries to watch with Jerami Grant (18.6 PPG) and Grayson Allen (16.5 PPG) questionable.  Both players provide a lot more offensively than they do defensively.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Heat/Hornets NBA Play-In ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5.5

No question the Charlotte Hornets have the better full season stats over the Miami Heat.  And going by those stats, this line of -5.5 would make sense.  But this is a play-in game with the season on the line for both teams, and I trust the veteran Heat more in this spot than the young Hornets who have no experience in these situations.

Erik Spoelstra has consistently defied the odds in the playoffs as the head coach of the Miami Heat.  He's easily a Top 5 coach in this league.  And the Heat have a ton of playoff experience led by Adebayo, Wiggins, Herro and Powell.  They are a dangerous team when they are as healthy as they are right now.

The Hornets are lead by a ton of youngsters in Ball, Miller, Kneuppel and Diabate.  They folded in their biggest games down the stretch when they were trying to avoid the play-in.  They lost by 11 in Boston and by 18 at home to the Pistons in two of their last three games.  I think they will fold tonight, too.

The Heat went 3-1 SU against the Hornets in the regular season and were without Bam Adebayo in the only game they lost.  Spoelstra has guided the Heat out of the play-in and into the playoffs in each of the past three seasons.  "We're here, and now we just have to make the most of this," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "There's no other way than just to absolutely go for it."  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +17.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing hard despite the perception that they are tanking.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only losses coming to the Clippers and the Warriors by 5.  They also beat the Warriors and Pelicans, and upset the Raptors in a game Toronto really needed.

The Kings have some nice young talent in Raynaud, Plowden and Clifford who all topped 20 points in their last game against the Warriors.  These guys are playing hard and would love to upset the Portland Trail Blazers tonight as well.

The Blazers need to win this game to get the 8th spot in the play-in.  You are paying a tax to back the Blazers because of it.  I actually think it's a bit of a letdown spot for them coming off their huge win over the Clippers that gave them the upper-hand on LA for that 8th spot.

All three meetings between the Blazers and Kings have been decided by 7 points or fewer this season.  The Blazers haven't won any of their last eight meetings with the Kings by more than 9 points.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +14.5

The Lakers locked up home-court advantage in the first round with their wins over the Suns and Warriors in their last two games.  Those are two teams that didn't care about winning, and the results are giving the Lakers a lot of respect now.

The Lakers are still without Doncic and Reaves with LeBron questionable tonight.  They will either be the 3rd or 4th seed in the West.  With the Nuggets resting their starters today, they are giving the Lakers the 3rd seed if they want it.  The Nuggets would rather play the Rockets than the Timberwolves.  I think the Lakers would rather play the Rockets than the Timberwolves as well, so they could decide to lose this game intentionally to get the 4th seed instead of the 3.

Either way, I don't think the Lakers have the firepower without Doncic and Reaves to put away the Jazz by this kind of margin today.  The Jazz still play hard and still have enough talent to be competitive.  They just crushed the Grizzlies 147-101 last time out.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and would love to win their final game of the season.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 224.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They have gone for 246 or more combined points in each of their last four games.  This total of 224.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.

The Rockets are an elite defensive team when they play their starters.  But they won't play their starters today and will rest key defenders like Thompson and Smith Jr.  But their bench is fully of guys who are good offensively, and Reed Shepard will play today.

With nothing at stake for either team, this will be a care-free game with defense optional, which is always the case for the Grizzlies.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +14.5

The Detroit Pistons are locked into the No. 1 seed in the East and should not be 14.5-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers today as a result.  They will sit Jalen Duren, and their starters are unlikely to play big minutes today if they go at all.

The Indiana Pacers are locked into one of the three worst records in the NBA which gives them their best chance at the No. 1 overall pick. But they have been playing hard for weeks despite the perception that they are tanking.

In fact, the Pacers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall with just two losses by more than 15 points.  They have been very competitive including three outright victories as underdogs over the Magic, Heat and Bulls.  They will give it all in their final game of the season to try and take down the Pistons today.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Blazers UNDER 225.5

Defensive intensity will be very high in this game between the Clippers and Blazers tonight.  They are tied for 8th place in the West with just two games remaining.  The winner of this game will likely get the 8th seed, which gives them a big advantage at advancing to the playoffs through the play-in.

The Clippers are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 28th in pace this season.  The Blazers are without Jerami Grant one of their best scorers and Shaedon Sharpe is questionable.  Those are two of their top three scorers this season.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last five meetings between the Clippers and Blazers with 222 or fewer combined points in all four.  These teams just met on March 31st, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -6.5

The Cavaliers are punting this game.  They want the 4th seed in the East, and even if they didn't they can't catch the Knicks for 3rd because the Knicks own the tiebreaker and have a one game lead on them with two games to go.  That's why the Cavs have elected to rest Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Sam Merrill tonight.

They have tipped their caps that they don't care about winning this game, and getting healthy for the playoffs is the priority.  That's why the Hawks are favored so heavily here and they should be favored by more when you consider the motivational mismatch.

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for sitting in 6th place in the East.  They are desperate to avoid the play-in and to win the Southeast Division.  The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season to put themselves in this position.  

They have gone 18-4 SU & 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  A whopping 16 of those 18 wins have come by double-digits.  Atlanta is fully healthy and showing what it is capable of when that's the case.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +17.5

The Miami Heat are locked into the 10th seed in the East with nothing to play for.  Their main priority is to get healthy and try and work their way into the playoffs through the play-in.  They don't care about winning this game at all, and they should not be 17.5-point road favorites as a result.

The Heat haven't been caring about winning games at all here down the stretch and their chemistry is terrible.  They are 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall with consecutive blowout losses to the Toronto Raptors by 26 and 14 points.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, further influencing their decision to likely rest guys.  Herro, Powell and Jovic are out with Mitchell questionable.

The Wizards are locked into one of the 3 worst records in the NBA now.  The teams with the 3 worst records all have equal odds of getting the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft.  They have no incentive to lose, and if anything they will be more motivated for a win than the Heat tonight.

That's especially the case after recently allowing 80 points to Bam Adebayo in a 150-129 loss to the Heat on March 10th.  Then they lost again to the Heat by 16 on April 4th less than a week ago.  They will be playing with triple-revenge here with three losses to this team since February 8th.  Miami could care less about winning this game.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Charlotte Hornets ML -140

Note: I released this 25* Play Thursday night after the lines came out.  I figured it would get bet towards the Hornets and it has.  I would still play it as a 25* up to -200, and I would also play it as a 25* at -6 or less if you prefer to go that route.  I expect the Hornets to win in a blowout.

The Hornets have a lot to play for right now.  They are tied for 8th place with the 76ers in the East and lose out on the tiebreaker.  There is only one game separating the 7th through 9th seeds, and getting the 7th or 8th seed if very important to increase their chances of making the playoffs.

Few teams are playing as well as the Hornets right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall with two of those losses coming to the Celtics.  They are fully healthy and max motivated tonight.

The Detroit Pistons are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East and have nothing to play for.  Their priority is to get healthy for the playoffs.  I expect them to either rest their starters or play them very few minutes tonight as a result.  Charlotte should be a much bigger favorite in this one, and that's why they are my 25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR for the 2025-26 season.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Rockets UNDER 227.5

Defensive intensity will be high in this game tonight with a lot at stake for both the Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets.  The 76ers are in 8th place in the East just one game out of 6 place, and 0.5 games ahead of the Hornets for 9th.  They desperately want to make the playoffs or at the very least finish as the 7th or 8th seed in the play-in.  The Rockets are tied with the Lakers, and the team that finishes ahead will get the 4th seed and host the other in the first round.

The Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 29th in pace and 7th in defensive rating.  They will control the pace playing at home tonight.  The Rockets are 24-14 UNDER in all home games this season.

The 76ers are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall.  That includes 3-0 UNDER in their last three with three straight defensive battles combining for 218 points with the Timberwolves, 209 with the Pistons and 217 with the Spurs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -3.5

The Toronto Raptors need this game like blood.  They sit in 6th place in the East just 0.5 games ahead of the Orlando Magic.  They need to finish 6th or higher to avoid the play-in.  They are fully healthy and max motivated right now.

The Miami Heat have essentially nothing to play for.  They aren't officially locked into the 10th seed, but they might as well be trailing the Hornets by 1.5 games with only 3 games remaining.  They are playing like they have nothing to play for, too.

That was evident when these teams met two days ago with the Raptors beating the Heat 121-95.  The Heat fell to 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall as they have completely cratered down the stretch.  They have no reason to show up tonight, either.  

The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Heat this season with three blowout wins by 26, 21 and 10 points.  It will be more of the same in this motivational mismatch tonight.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 228

Both the Thunder and Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  That means there's a decent chance both teams rest some key guys.  Either way, I like this UNDER today as both have a lot to play for, and the defensive intensity should be high as a result.

The Clippers are trying to secure the 8th seed in the West which would give them a huge advantage to make the playoffs.  They only lead the Blazers by one game with a game against the Blazers on deck next game.  The Thunder can clinch the No. 1 seed in the West with a win tonight.

The Clippers rank 28th in pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating and won't make anything easy on the Clippers.

The Thunder are 11-7 UNDER in their last 18 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  The Clippers are 10-4 UNDER in their last 14 games overall with 227 or fewer combined points in nine of those 14 games.  The Thunder and Clippers have combined for 223 or fewer points in three of their last four meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on Portland +3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have a lot to play for with three games to go.  They sit in 9th place in the West just one game behind the Clippers for the 8th seed.  That is a huge difference because the 8th seed has a much bigger chance to actually make the playoffs.  They play the Clippers in their next game, so this game against the Spurs tonight is huge for them to make that game matter.  The Clippers play the Thunder tonight and are likely to lose, too.

The Spurs have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the West.  That's why they have decided to rest both Victor Wembenyama and Stephon Castle tonight.  They are tipping their hand that they don't care about winning this game, and they shouldn't be favored over the Blazers as a result.  

Portland is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season to come up clutch here down the stretch.  The Blazers are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  The Spurs will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML +105

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for sitting in 5th place in the East.  They are desperate to avoid the play-in and to win the Southeast Division.  They are one game ahead of the Raptors and 2 games ahead of the 76ers and Magic.  They can grab a stranglehold on the division title with a win tonight.

The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season to put themselves in this position.  They have gone 18-3 SU & 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  A whopping 16 of those 18 wins have come by double-digits.  Atlanta is fully healthy and showing what it is capable of when that's the case.

The Cavs aren't motivated right now.  They are just fine being the 4th seed in the East which would allow them to avoid the Celtics in the 2nd round.  They trail the Knicks by one game for the 3rd seed and lose out on the tiebreaker with the Knicks as well.  The Cavs play the Hawks in a home-and-home situation over their next two games.  They are likely to play the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs, so they don't want to show their hand in these two games.  

That's why they have decided to sit Jaylon Tyson, and Donavan Mitchell is questionable as well.  The Cavs are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall and have been going through the motions for weeks.  They don't care about winning this game, and the wrong team is favored as a result.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are locked in to the 6th seed in the West.  They have nothing to play for in these final three games.  I anticipated they would rest starters when I released this play, and that's precisely what they have done.  They will be without Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Mike Conley with both Rudo Gobert and Jaden McDaniels downgraded to questionable.  Their biggest concern is having everyone healthy for the playoffs.

The Magic need this win like blood.  They sit in 8th place in the East just a half-game ahead of the Hornets in 9th place, tied with the 76ers in 7th place, and one game behind the Raptors for 6th place.  They are only two games behind the Hawks for 1st place in the Southeast Division, and the Hawks have a brutal remaining schedule that could have the Magic catching them.

Either way, the Magic will be max motivated to get a win tonight, and they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and playing well as a result.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back to the Hawks, who are the hottest team in the East.

The Magic recently got back Franz Wagner and Anthony Black, two of their top four scorers that they desperately missed.  They are a dangerous team when they are as healthy as they are right now and that's showing.  They should make easy work of the Timberwolves tonight.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Suns NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 4th and final meeting between the Suns and Rockets this season.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the first three meetings with 206, 215 and 197 combined points.  This total of 221.5 has been set too high tonight.

Both teams will be playing with max intensity defensively as both have a lot to play for.  The Suns are trying to secure the all-important 7th seed in the West with an outside shot to get the 6th seed.  The Rockets are battling the Nuggets and Lakers for the 3rd through 5th seeds in the West.  They need a win to try and match up with the injury-ravaged Lakers in the first round.

The Rockets rank 6th in defensive rating this season while the Suns rank 10th.  The Rockets rank 29th in pace while the Suns rank 24th.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Phoenix Suns ML +105

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are healthy and rested and motivated for a big effort tonight.  They just recently got back both Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams from injury, and they are as healthy as they have been all season to close out the regular season and head into the playoffs.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.

The Suns are playing with triple-revenge after the Rockets won the first three meetings in this series.  They have also lost seven straight to the Rockets dating back to last season.  It's safe to say the Suns will be max motivated, especially Brooks being a former Rocket.  They are primed for one of their best efforts of the season as they try and secure the all-important 7th seed in the West.

No question the Rockets are motivated as well trying to overtake the Lakers or Nuggets for the 4th seed in the West.  However, it's time to 'sell high' on the Rockets who are riding a 6-game winning streak against suspect competition coming into this one.  Four of the wins came against tanking teams in the Jazz, Bucks, Grizzlies and Pelicans.  They only beat the short-handed Warriors by 1, and they beat the Knicks at home.

The Rockets have been overvalued all season going 33-45 ATS while the Suns are 45-30-3 ATS despite all their injuries.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Suns on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mavs/Clippers OVER 237

The Dallas Mavericks have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch.  They are 8-4 OVER in their last 12 games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  This total of 237 is very short for a game involving the Mavericks right now.

The Mavericks rank 3rd in pace and 22nd in defensive rating in their last 12 games.  They are going more small ball due to injuries and are playing faster as a result.  They can't defend with their lack of size on the court.  And they are motivated to get Cooper Flagg the rookie of the year trying to get him as many points as possible.  They are playing hard on offense, scoring 131 or more points in five of their last eight games.

The Clippers have become a very efficient offensive team with the trades for Garland and Mathurin to go along with Kawhi and Collins.  They have scored 127 or more points in four of their last eight games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Mavericks tonight.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Mavericks and Clippers with 239 or more combined points in three of those four meetings.  That includes a 138-131 (OT) win by the Clippers in their most recent meeting on March 21st.  That game was tied 122-122 at the end of regulation for 244 combined points.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Hornets/Celtics NBC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 221.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Celtics and Hornets since the beginning of March.  They went for 207 combined points in the first meeting and 213 in the 2nd meeting.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 179 combined points in their previous meeting.

It will be another defensive battle tonight between two teams that are dead nuts UNDER teams.  The Hornets are 48-31 UNDER in all games this season while the Celtics are 50-28 UNDER in all games.  The Celtics rank 4th in defensive rating while the Hornets rank 12th.  The Celtics are dead last (30th) in pace while the Hornets are 26th.

Defensive intensity will be high in this game with both teams having a lot to play for.  The Celtics are trying to secure the 2nd seed in the East, leading the Knicks by 2.5 games with the Knicks on deck next.  The Hornets are battling for seeding with only two games separating the 6th through 10th seeds in the East.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on 76ers/Spurs OVER 236.5

The San Antonio Spurs are thriving offensively.  They have scored at least 123 points in seven of their last eight games overall and will hang a big number on the 76ers tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 236.5 ticket.

The 76ers have been thriving offensively since getting Embiid, Maxey, George and Oubre back healthy.  They have scored at least 115 points in six of their last nine games overall including over 150 points twice.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the 76ers and Spurs with 248 or more combined points four times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hawks OVER 226.5

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight as the New York Knicks visit the Atlanta Hawks.  The Knicks rank 4th in offensive rating this season while the Hawks rank 8th, but they have been even better than that during their 18-2 run over their last 20 games.  This total of 226.5 has been set too short tonight.

The Hawks have scored at least 122 points in 14 of their last 18 games overall.  The Knicks have exploded for 136 and 130 points in their last two games coming in.  The Knicks and Hawks have combined for at least 226 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks ML -115

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for sitting in 5th place in the East.  They are desperate to avoid the play-in and to win the Southeast Division.  They are only 2 games ahead of both the Raptors and 76ers for 5th place.  They can grab a stranglehold on the division title with a win tonight.  Atlanta is sitting 2.5 games ahead of the Hornets within the division.

The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season to put themselves in this position.  They have gone 18-2 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  A whopping 16 of those 18 wins have come by double-digits.  Atlanta is fully healthy and showing what it is capable of when that's the case.

The New York Knicks don't have nearly as much to play for.  They are locked in to either the 3rd or 4th seed in the East.  The Cavaliers are showing their hand that they are ok with being the 4th seed to try and avoid the Celtics in the 2nd round.  The Knicks are thinking the same way that they would be fine with being the 4th seed.  Their main focus is getting healthy going into the playoffs.

The Knicks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and pretty much just going throught he motions.  They have lost their last three games against playoff contenders all by double-digits on the road in the Hornets by 11, the Thunder by 11 and the Rockets by 17.  New York is 21-19 SU & 14-26 ATS on the road this season.  Atlanta is 13-0 SU in its last 13 home games and will make it 14 in a row tonight.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Los Angeles Lakers just suffered two huge blows with the losses of their two best players to injury.  Luka Doncic (33.5 PPG, 8.3 APG) will be out for at least the rest of the regular season with a hamstring injury, and Austin Reaves (23.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) will be out for at least the rest of the regular season with an oblique injury.  Tough news for a team that was playing well prior to these injuries.

The Lakers have no business being favored on the road over the Mavericks tonight without these two.  In their first game without Doncic, they were smoked by the Thunder 139-96 in a 43-point defeat.  And it won't go any better for them in their first game without both Doncic AND Reaves tonight.  LeBron James is no longer able to carry a team on the last leg of his career.  Their best defender in Marcus Smart is out, too.

The Mavericks continue to play hard trying to get Cooper Flagg the Rookie of the Year award.  They are very healthy coming into this game with each of their top 10 scorers available.  They would love nothing more than to beat the Lakers behind a big game from Flagg tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets ML -125

This is a huge game for the Charlotte Hornets today.  They sit in 8th place in the East, with only two games separating the 6th through 10 seeds. They need to finish as high as possible to give themselves the best chance at making the playoffs.  They have been playing some of the best basketball in the NBA since the turn of the calendar year, and they will continue to be max motivated tonight.

The Minnesota Timberwolves seem content with being the 6th seed in the West.  They are two games behind the Rockets for 5th place.  If the season ended today they would match up with the Lakers in the 1st round, and they would take that.  They aren't in jeopardy of falling to the 7th seed either with a 3.5-game lead on the Suns with only four games left for Phoenix.

Anthony Edwards (28.9 PPG) was listed as questionable when I locked this play in and is now downgraded to out.  The Timberwolves remain without Jaden McDaniels (14.8 PPG), meaning they are without two of their top three scorers.  It's no surprise they have been struggling without these guys going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with two losses to the Pistons and another loss to the 76ers.  They just aren't concerned about winning games right now like the Hornets are.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Thunder OVER 238.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team no matter who they have on the court.  They rank 2nd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz recently went for 270 combined points with the Raptors and 264 with the Nuggets, and they have gone for 242 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 contests.  

The Jazz are 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall.  They have gone for at least 235 combined points in eight consecutive games, and 242 or more in seven of them.  This total of 238.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Thunder are as healthy as they have been all season and will hang a big number on the Jazz tonight.  They have scored at least 121 points in five of their last eight games, including 139 on the Lakers in their last contest.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Jazz and Thunder with 232 or more combined points in all seven, and 237 or more in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic have a lot to play for right now.  They are sitting in 9th place in the East but just 1.5 games behind the 76ers for 6th place, which would get them out of the play-in.  There is only 2 games separating the 6th through 10th seeds right now, so all those teams have a lot to pay for.

The Magic are getting healthy and playing their best basketball at the perfect time.  They just got Franz Wagner (20.9 PPG) back from injury for the stretch run as he has missed 47 games this season.  His worth has been proven to this team, and he's worth more than both Jalen Suggs and Paulo Banchero.  The only key player they are missing is Anthony Black, but they can do without him as long as Suggs is healthy like he is right now.

The New Orleans Pelicans have nothing to play for and are playing like it.  They have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with four of their last five losses all coming by 12 points or more.  The other was an upset loss to the tanking Kings.

The Pelicans have ruled out both Trey Murphy (21.5 PPG) and Dejounte Murray (16.7 PPG, 6.4 APG), which are arguably their two best players.  They have both been dealing with nagging injuries, and the fact that the Pelicans are sitting them shows they don't care about winning these games here down the stretch.  The Magic do, and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -9.5

The Phoenix Suns are as healthy as they have been in a long time just recently getting Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams back. They are motivated to finish in 7th place in the West to assure their best possibility of making the playoffs through the play-in.  Until they secure that seed, they will be max motivated moving forward.

The tanking Bulls are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by 15 points or more.  So they have been getting blown out on the regular, and I don't see them offering much resistance to the Suns today, either.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 230

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-5 OVER in their last 19 games overall.  They have gone for 242 or more combined points in 15 of those 19 games, so this total of 230 is way too short for a game involving the Wizards right now.  They rank 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.

The tanking Nets have quit playing defense, too.  They are coming off a 141-107 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks for 248 combined points.  There will be no defense being played in this game today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Heat OVER 245.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-5 OVER in their last 18 games overall.  They have gone for 242 or more combined points in 14 of those 18 games, so this total of 245.5 isn't very big for the Wizards right now.  They rank 6th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.

The Miami Heat are even more of an OVER team due to ranking 1st in pace.  The Heat are 12-3 OVER in their last 15 games overall and have been atrocious defensively here down the stretch.  They rank 24th in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  The Heat and their opponents have combined for at least 242 points in seven of their last nine games, including 276 with the Celtics, 253 with the Pacers and 267 with the Cavs in three of their last four games.

These teams met less than a month ago with the Heat beating the Wizards 150-129 for 279 combined points.  It will be more of the same today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Rockets OVER 232.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team no matter who they have on the court.  They rank 2nd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz recently went for 270 combined points with the Raptors and 264 with the Nuggets, and they have gone for 242 or more combined points in seven of their last nine contests.  

The Jazz are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall.  They have gone for at least 235 combined points in seven consecutive games, and 242 or more in six of them.  This total of 232.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Rockets have been a much better offensive team since moving Reed Sheppard into the starting lineup, but they are worse off defensively.  They have scored 116 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Jazz tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -2

The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot to play for right now.  They are currently the 6th seed in the East if the season were to end today, but they have the same record as the 7th place Raptors and have the tiebreaker.  But several other teams are nipping at their heels in the Hornets, Magic and Heat.  They have no margin for error right now and will be max motivated tonight as a result.

A return to full health has come at the perfect time for the 76ers.  They just got back Maxey, Embiid, George and Oubre Jr.  They are much better than their current power ranking, and they should be more than 2-point home favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight as a result.  The 76ers are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by double-digits during this stretch.

This is a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 113-108 loss in Detroit last night.  The Timberwolves aren't playing with that much urgency right now as they are just trying to target a 1st round matchup with the Lakers instead of the Nuggets.  They are going to either be the 5th or 6th seed in the West, and right now they look to just be going through the motions and trying to get healthy.  They are without Jaden McDaniels, and Anthony Edwards is questionable to make his return tonight.  I like Philadelphia either way.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Hornets OVER 234.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games overall.  They are absolutely tanking and just quit playing defense.  They have allowed at least 123 points in 16 of their last 20 games, including 126 or more points in 14 of those.  

The Pacers have gone for at least 231 combined points in 17 of those 20 games with their opponents.  That includes 246 or more combined points in eight of their last nine, so this total of 234.5 is very low for a game involving the Pacers right now.

The Hornets are coming off a 127-107 win over the Suns for 234 combined points.  They are a potent offensive team that will hang a big number on the Pacers to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Hornets beat the Pacers 133-109 for 242 combined points in their most recent meeting on February 26th.  It should be more of the same as this game sails OVER this 234.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Pistons UNDER 225.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 6 days between the Pistons and Timberwolves.  The Pistons won 109-87 in Minnesota for just 196 combined points on March 28th.  That total was set at 220.5, and this total has been set at 225.5 which is a 5-point adjustment up that isn't warranted.

The Pistons rank 2nd in defensive rating and completing shut down the Timberwolves in that first meeting holding them to 87 points.  The Pistons just held the Thunder to 101 points at the end of regulation recently, the Pelicans to 108, the Lakers to 110, the Warriors to 101 and the Wizards to 95.

The Timberwolves rank 5th in defensive rating this season.  They have had to rely more on defense here of late playing without Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, which are two of their top three scorers.  They will be without McDaniels again and Edwards is questionable.  They are more concerned with getting healthy for the playoffs than winning games right now.

The Timberwolves are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall finishing with 220 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games.  This total of 225.5 is very high for a game involving the Pistons and Timberwolves right now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -13.5

The Spurs are playing better than anyone in the NBA as they try and chase down the Oklahoma City Thunder for 1st place in the West.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating and 2nd in net rating only behind the Thunder.  They are legit title contenders.

The Spurs have gone 25-2 SU & 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Amazingly, 16 of those 25 wins have come by 13 points or more so they have been blowing out teams on the regular.  They are fully healthy right now, and asking them to win this game by 14 points or more to cover isn't asking too much.

The Golden State Warriors are basically content with being the 10th seed in the West at this point and having to play two road games to make the playoffs.  They aren't tanking, they just don't have the horses right now to be competitive.

The Warriors are 11-20 SU & 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games overall, which basically coincided with losing Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.  But they are also without Porzingis, Post, Moody, Melton and Horford tonight with both Santos and Payton II questionable.  They are without five of their top six scorers and basically a G League in their current state.  They have no chance of keeping this game competitive tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +17

The Utah Jazz have played three straight playoff contenders and were competitive with two of them.  They lost by 9 to the Cavs as 16.5-point home dogs, and their lone non-competitive loss was to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The other was a 135-129 road loss at Denver as 19.5-point dogs.  The Jazz shot just 27.3% from 3 yet still only lost by 6 to the Nuggets on the road.  Now they want revenge from that defeat at 17-point home dogs in the rematch here just five days later.  This number has been inflated and we will take advantage.

The Nuggets are such a poor defensive team which makes it difficult for them to cover these inflated numbers.  Denver is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall which includes an outright upset road loss at Memphis as 12.5-point favorites.  Denver has just one win by more than 16 points in its last seven games.

I don't see the Nuggets being all that motivated to beat the Jazz again here less than a week later.  And they have a big game on deck against the Spurs that they could be looking ahead to.  Either way, this number is inflated.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Wizards OVER 237.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-5 OVER in their last 17 games overall.  They have gone for 242 or more combined points in 13 of those 17 games, so this total of 237.5 is very short for a game involving the Wizards right now.  They rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The 76ers are an OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They recently got Maxey, Embiid, George and Oubre back from injury, which are four of their top five scorers.  Embiid will sit tonight, but the 76ers have a ton of firepower even without him and should hang a big number on the Wizards to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket with ease.

The Wizards will have two key guards in Johnson and Coulibaly available tonight.  They won't have Sarr, but that just makes them even smaller and having to play more small ball really benefits OVERS.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 241 or more combined points in two of three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Clippers NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the turn of the calendar year.  They have been especially good since trading for Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin.  And they are a dangerous team when Garland, Mathurin, Leonard and Collins are all healthy at the same time, which is the case right now.

The Clippers have won five consecutive games to get to 39-36 and in 8th place in the West.  Assuring they get the 7th or 8th seed gives them a great chance to qualify for the playoffs, and they are highly motivated to do just that.  They would almost assuredly lock up at least 8th place tonight with a win over the Blazers, who sit in 9th place and 1.5 games behind them.

While this is also a huge game for the Blazers, they haven't been playing nearly as well as the Clippers, and they aren't nearly as healthy either.  The Blazers are without two of their top three scorers in Shaedon Sharpe (21.4 PPG) and Jerami Grant (18.6 PPG) tonight.  I give them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive without these two tonight.  

The Clippers own the Blazers going 20-2 SU in the last 22 meetings.  Amazingly, all 20 of their wins have come by 5 points or more, so we are getting a discount on Los Angeles -5 tonight.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.