Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)

I love the spot for the Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Toronto Blue Jays.  They lost by one run in Game 1 and in extra innings in Game 2.

Now the Phillies should win by multiple runs in Game 3 with their big advantage on the mound.  Jesus Luzardo is 10-5 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 23 starts this season with 164 K's in 136 2/3 innings and only 12 homers allowed.  Luzardo held the Blue Jays to one earned run in 5 2/3 innings with 8 K's in a 7-4 victory in his last start against them on June 10th earlier this season.

Shane Bieber has been a shell of his former self this season for the Blue Jays.  He is 3-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in eight starts while allowing 21 earned runs, 7 homers and 62 base runners in 37 innings with just 28 K's.  Philadelphia should hang a big number on him today.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Sunday.

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Blue Jays vs Phillies Free Pick

The Angle(s): Toronto enters in a classic letdown spot after taking the first two games of the set. The Blue Jays send right-hander Shane Bieber (8-6, 4.12 ERA) to the mound, and while Bieber has shown improvement in recent outings, he is still navigating a overall down campaign by his standards and remains prone to traffic on the basepaths. While Bieter gave up just one run over 5 2/3 innings last time out, it was on nine hits and two walks, so it could've been a lot worse. 

The Phillies counter with electric left-hander Jesús Luzardo (10-5, 3.15 ERA), who comes in in peak form. Luzardo has been dominant over his recent starts, missing bats at a high rate and racking up Ks. That creates a major situational advantage for Philadelphia, as the Blue Jays have struggled against left-handed pitching, dropping five of their last six games when facing a southpaw starter. Expect a desperate Phillies team to bounce back with authority and cover the runline.

The Bet: Phillies -1½ (3%). 

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The strongest argument starts with the number itself. After Toronto and Philadelphia combined for 9 runs Friday and 12 runs Saturday, the market is still dealing only 8.5 for Sunday’s finale. ESPN confirms the current total at 8.5. (ESPN) Your Covers data likewise shows Friday finishing 5-4 against 7.5 and Saturday 7-5 against 9.5. That fits the premise behind the +450.78-unit historical UNDER angle: instead of reacting to the recent scoring, we are listening to what the oddsmakers are telling us with today's comparatively restrained number.

Jesús Luzardo is the biggest fundamental reason

Luzardo's overall 3.36 ERA is good, but his current form is considerably better. MLB's official preview says the Phillies left-hander has a 1.98 ERA over his last 10 outings, and he enters Sunday after throwing eight scoreless innings against Washington. (MLB.com)

The supplied numbers strengthen that case. Luzardo has gone UNDER in five of his last six starts, allowing:

0 ER in 8 IP vs. Washington

1 ER in 7 IP vs. the Yankees

1 ER in 5 IP vs. the Mets

0 ER in 7 IP at Cincinnati

1 ER in 6 IP at Kansas City

His lone ugly outing during that stretch was six earned at Miami. Otherwise, we're talking about three earned runs across 33 innings in those other five starts. That's dominant run prevention.

Bieber's headline ERA disguises improving form

Shane Bieber's 5.11 season ERA is the obvious concern for an UNDER, but it's badly distorted by a couple of blowups. More relevant is what he's doing now. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts, including 5⅔ innings of one-run baseball at Houston his last time out. 

His last five starts have produced four UNDERS, with Toronto's games finishing 3-1, 3-1, 1-0 and 5-3 in those four UNDER results. The Covers matchup data puts Bieber at a 3.00 ERA over his last five.

There is also at least a small matchup precedent: Bieber's only career appearance against Philadelphia was 7⅓ innings, two runs allowed, a 5-2 final that stayed UNDER 9.

Strikeout potential helps the UNDER

Luzardo has 164 strikeouts in 136⅔ innings, and his recent game log includes outings of 7, 9, 7, 11 and 9 strikeouts. (MLB.com) Swing-and-miss stuff matters here because it reduces balls in play, advancement opportunities and the kind of multi-run innings necessary to beat 8.5.

Bieber isn't generating strikeouts at vintage levels, but his recent run prevention has improved considerably. The matchup therefore doesn't require both starters to dominate; Luzardo carrying six or seven quality innings while Bieber keeps Philadelphia reasonably contained creates a very viable UNDER script.

The market signal matters even more after two OVERS

This is arguably the most interesting feature of the handicap. Anyone looking solely at this series sees:

Friday: Toronto 5, Philadelphia 4 — OVER 7.5
Saturday: Toronto 7, Philadelphia 5 — OVER 9.5

Yet Sunday's number sits at 8.5.

That is precisely where the "use the oddsmakers' knowledge against them" concept comes into play. The obvious recent-results narrative screams OVER; the market hasn't responded by hanging 9.5 or 10. Instead, we're being asked to play OVER a substantially lower threshold with Luzardo pitching. That's the sort of apparent disconnect the +450.78-unit system is designed to exploit.

What keeps this from being flawless

There are legitimate OVER concerns. Citizens Bank Park is hitter-friendly, and Philadelphia is hot Sunday afternoon—around 90-92°F during the game window. Also, Philadelphia's bullpen has been vulnerable recently; Saturday's defeat was another example of the relief corps surrendering a late lead. (Reuters)

Those factors are worth acknowledging rather than forcing every statistic to fit the pick.

Bottom line

BLUE JAYS–PHILLIES UNDER 8.5

The foundation is the +450.78-unit historical line-comparison system, but today's matchup supplies legitimate baseball support. Luzardo has a 1.98 ERA across his last 10 outings, just threw eight shutout innings, and has been one of baseball's better starters recently. Bieber's season ERA is misleading relative to his current form: 3.00 over his last five with four UNDERS, while allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four. (MLB.com)

Most importantly, after consecutive 9- and 12-run games, the sportsbook is still hanging only 8.5. That's the oddsmaker signal. Rather than chase what just happened, the numbers say today's pitching matchup has a very different profile.

Projected scoring range: approximately 6–8 runs.

Best bet: Blue Jays–Phillies UNDER 8.5.

WISE GUY MONEYLINE STRIKE

Joe Duffy is a REMARKABLE 52-27, +28.64 units on MLB moneylines. Wise Guy sides are 12-6, +8.19 units, fueled by plenty of dog winners.

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