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Frank Sawyer
Frank Sawyer DELIVERED his 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month last night (Brooklyn-Toronto Under) -- and now UNLEASHES his 25* CBB College Basketball Invitational Game of the Year tonight!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
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THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Si Woo Kim (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Woo Kim (7137) versus Tom Hoge (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Woo Kim is enjoying a great season with eight made cuts in all eight tournaments this season which has elevated him to 25th in the FedEx standings. He comes off a tie for sixth place at THE PLAYERS Championship where he gained strokes in all four major Stokes-Gained categories. Woo Kim has four victories on the PGA Tour — but he will not sacrifice anything this week for another big payday since he is not really in contention to win the Masters. His skill set fits well with the demands of this course. Woo Kim ranks 13th this season Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is also 12th in Greens-In-Regulation. Woo Kim ranks 20th in Scrambling — and it is this balanced skill set that has him ranked 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tota. The Texas resident finished in 35th place at the November 2022 edition of this tournament — but he gained more than +8.0 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green that week.
Woo Kim is linked with Tom Hoge in Round One head-to-head props. Hoge is elite with his iron play — he ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But Hoge is simply not good with his driver — and that appears to be the wrong skill set for the revamped course in March this week. Hoge ranks 141st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee with that metric brought down by ranking 151st in Total Driving and 134th in Driving Distance. Not surprisingly, Hoge has struggled at this tournament with a missed cut and a 46th place in his two previous visits. Hoge ranks a solid 48th on the tour this year in Round One scoring — but Woo Kim ranks 23rd in Round One scoring. Take Woo Kim (7137) versus Tom Hoge (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.
BEST BET: Jason Day (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Day (7136) versus Tony Finau (7016) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.
Our Best Bet is on Jason Day who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. The veteran is in good form, plays well in Texas, and will go all-out for the victory if in contention this week. Day has made the cut in six of his seven events in 2024 with three top-tens including a tie for sixth place at Pebble Beach and a ninth place at the Genesis Invitational. Day plays well in Texas where he has registered three of his 13 victories on the PGA Tour have taken place in the state as he has proven himself adept at handling the wind in the Lone Star state. Day is one of the longer drivers off-the-tee — he ranks 37th on the tour this season Driving Distance: All Drives. He also ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so he should feel comfortable letting it rip off-the-tee given the short rough since he is adept at getting up-and-down if he misses the green on his approach. Day is also a good lag putter attuned to larger greens like he will confront this week. He has been effective previously at this tournament when the course probably was more of a challenge. He has made the cut in all three previous appearances with a tie for seventh place in 2020 — and he averaged a score of 69.42 per round in those three years.
Day is linked with Tony Finau in Round One head-to-head props. Finau is the reigning champion from the November 2022 incarnation of this tournament. Finau had made seven straight cuts this year before missing the cut by five strokes last week at the Valspar Championship. But only one of those seven finishes was in the top 12 — and four of his results this year have been top 45 or worse. Finau ranks only 79th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance with his short game holding him back this year. He ranks 132nd in Scrambling and 144th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He missed the cut at this tournament in 2021 after a 24th place in 2020. And while Finau ranks 63rd on the tour this season in Round One scoring, Day ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Round One scoring so far for 2024. Take Day (7136) versus Finau (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
SERVICE BIO
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
Follow Frank on Twitter: @FrankSawyerHS
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For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.