Cappers Sports Picks

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). THE SITUATION: Navy (5-6) looks to bounce back from their 59-14 loss at SMU as an 18.5-point underdog on November 25th. Army (5-6) comes off a 28-21 upset victory as a 1-point underdog against Coastal Carolina on November 18th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Navy got outgained by -224 net yards against the Mustangs two weeks ago — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in their last game. The Midshipmen only managed to generate 3.61 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after failing to generate more than 3.75 YPP in their last contest. And while SMU averaged 7.57 YPP in that game, Navy has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread 8 of their last 9 games after failing to average at least 3.25 YPP in their last game while allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP. Navy has a good run defense that ranks 32nd in the nation Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Midshipmen have not allowed more than 118 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. In a game between two teams that average 46 and 48 rushing attempts per game respectively, the Midshipmen have the edge in run defense. Army ranks 93rd in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank 116th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Army allowed the Chanticleers to generate 7.68 YPP in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 65 games when playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points. Navy has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (5-3) has lost two games in a row after their 90-67 loss to Indiana State as a 7-point underdog on Tuesday. Monmouth (4-4) returns to the court after losing their second straight game in a 91-87 loss at Cornell as a 12.5-point underdog on November 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINT(S): Northern Illinois only made 39.1% of their shots against the Sycamores in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. But the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up loss at home in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after a double-digit loss at home. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.4% of their shots in what was the second-worst defensive effort of their season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last contest. The Huskies are battle-tested already with losses to Marquette, Northwestern (who upset Purdue), and the Sycamores who all rank in the top-60 according Ken Pomeroy’s advanced analytics. They also beat an Appalachian State team that upset Auburn. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Monmouth nailed 53.3% of their shots against the Big Red which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they may be rusty in their return to the court with a week and a half between games. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after losing two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Monmouth has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a pick ‘em or a favorite of up to six points. And in their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 150s, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread 17 times. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). THE SITUATION: Alabama (6-2) enters this game coming off an 89-65 win against Arkansas State as a 25-point favorite on Monday. Purdue (8-1) rebounded from their loss at Northwestern with an 87-68 victory against Iowa as a 13.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral favorite at the Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, Ontario.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think the market is giving enough respect to this Alabama team after they got upset by Ohio State and Clemson earlier this season. Head coach Nate Oaks is still working out some chemistry issues with two transfers coming in, Aaron Estrada from Hofstra and Grant Nelson from North Dakota State, adjusting to his analytics-driven 3-pointer or shoot-at-the-rim tendencies. The Crimson Tide have also struggled with their defense — but they should get better as the season moves on. This is a big opportunity to make a statement against one of the top teams in the country. Alabama has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Crimson Tide ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 10th in the nation by making 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are taking 3s in 42.8% of their shots from the field, the 64th most aggressive rate from 3-point land. After making 11 shots from distance in their loss to Clemson, they nailed 13 shots from 3-point range against the Red Wolves — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. Many consider Purdue the best team in the country after beating Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette in the Maui Invitational — but they demonstrated their vulnerabilities in their loss at Northwestern last week. While they did follow that up with a 19-point win against the Hawkeyes, Purdue has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contest. Head coach Matt Painter has his team playing at a faster pace this season after his team was upset by Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA Tournament last March. After playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation, Purdue is shooting quicker this season — and their adjusted possessions per game of 70.0 ranks 129th in the nation. While this adjustment should help them avoid getting upset by potential Cinderellas in the Big Dance, the Boilermakers are still vulnerable to teams like Alabama that maximize efficiency on offense. Purdue is making 39.7% of their 3-pointers — but they only take 35.9% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 216th in the nation. The Total set is set in the 160s with the Boilermakers playing at the faster pace — and this plays into the Crimson Tide’s style of play as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 160s.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB Purdue-Alabama Fox-TV Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.