Cappers Sports Picks

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick, overseeded rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass with frequent doglegs that average only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet, consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and wind gusts approaching 20 miles per hour are expected through Saturday before slowing down on Sunday. Scattered rainstorms are expected for the first three days of this event as well. This is the third signature event in 2026, with 72 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.577 per round, which made it the ninth straight season that this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut. 

LONG SHOT: Nicolai Hojgaard (+5600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hojgaard (7037) versus Corey Conners (7038) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:05 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Nicolai Hojgaard, who is listed at +5600 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. The older brother of Rasmus, the more accomplished Hojgaard comes off a sixth place finish last week at the PGA Cognizant Classic where led the field in Rounds Three and Four. He previously finished in a tie for third place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open a few weeks ago — it was the third top four or better finish in his last six events worldwide. He now has six top-seven finishes in his last eight tournaments worldwide. Hojgaard is an emerging superstar who is already one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks tenth on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks sixth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Overall, he ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He is driving the ball even better this season after ranking 11th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks in the top ten in the field this week in Proximity to the Hole from 200 or more yards from the pin — and this is the average approach shot for the professionals about a third of the time on this course. He has also been hot with his putter — and if that remains the case, he will be very tough to beat. He gained +2.0 shots versus the field with his blade at the Farmers Insurance Open. He then gained almost +3.0 shots versus the field with his putting at the WM Phoenix Open. This is his third professional trip to Bay Hill after missing the cut the previous two years — but that is one of the reasons we are getting a great price on him this week. He is so good with distance and his approach game is so solid, success should be imminent on this course. 

Hojgaard is linked with Corey Conners in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Conners has made us money over the years — but he is simply not in good form right now. He comes off a tie for 24th place at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, which was actually his best result in his last three professional events. He has lost strokes versus the field in Approach the Green in three straight tournaments. Accuracy has been one of Conners’ best skill sets — he ranked 39th on the PGA Tour last season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. But this year, Conners has dropped to 80th in that metric. He is also 66th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Additionally, Conners is struggling with his putter as he ranks 147th on Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Conners has finished in third place twice at this event -- but he was in better form in those two seasons. Take Hojgaard (7037) versus Conners (7038) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick, overseeded rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass with frequent doglegs that average only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet, consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and wind gusts approaching 20 miles per hour are expected through Saturday before slowing down on Sunday. Scattered rainstorms are expected for the first three days of this event as well. This is the third signature event in 2026, with 72 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.577 per round, which made it the ninth straight season that this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7006) versus Russell Henley (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:20 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Matt Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Fitzpatrick has never been in better form when it comes to his driver and iron play. He comes off a tie for 24th place at The Genesis Invitational, where he gained in Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green. He has lost strokes versus the field in the Tee-to-Green metric just once since last June. His previous result was a 14th-place finish at Pebble Beach. He gained +2.8 strokes per round versus the field Off-the-Tee — and the +7.8 shots he gained per round in his Approach were the best result of his career. The former US Open winner has made the cut in every professional event worldwide since the Masters last April. He won the DP World Championship in the fall. He finished in ninth place last month at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has one of the best short games in the world from year to year. This season on the PGA Tour, he ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. His putter has held him back this season — but he ranked 30th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, so this is likely just a temporary blip. There is a good case to be made that his struggles with his blade are simply a product of his struggles on the Poa Annua surfaces that dominate the west coast events. He lost -5.75 strokes versus the field with his putter at The Genesis Invitational. But with the tour moving to Florida, that means more Bermuda green putting surfaces that Fitzpatrick prefers. In the last two seasons, Fitzpatrick has gained +0.66 strokes per round versus the field when putting on Bermuda greens. In his 11 trips to Bay Hill, he has never lost strokes versus the field in putting. He has finished in the top 25 at this event seven times, with six of those results ending in the top 15. His peak effort here was a second place in 2019. I love an in-form Fitzpatrick — and we were on him in 2022 when he won the US Open. 

Fitzpatrick is linked with Russell Henley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Henley has made us plenty of money over the years — but he is simply not in great form right now. He missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational, where he lost -1.6 strokes versus the field per round in Approach the Green. Admittedly, Henley is the defending champion at this event — but that also brings both added pressure and a few more off-course responsibilities that can be a distraction. Henley’s weakness is his power Off-the-Tee — he ranks 143rd in Driving Distance this season. His superpower is that his accuracy with his driver and then his irons is usually so good that what he lacks in initial distance, he makes up for with super precision. But if his accuracy is off, then he becomes quite ordinary. After ranking 13th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has dropped to 29th in that metric this season. Even more telling, after ranking seventh in Shots-Gained: Around the Green last season, he has fallen to 106th in that category this season — and that is a serious problem given the water hazards on 50% of the course and the 84 sand bunkers. So while the course history is great, he has missed the cut in three of his nine professional visits — and he has finished outside the top 43 in six of those nine trips. Take Fitzpatrick (7006) versus Henley (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick, overseeded rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass with frequent doglegs that average only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet, consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and wind gusts approaching 20 miles per hour are expected through Saturday before slowing down on Sunday. Scattered rainstorms are expected for the first three days of this event as well. This is the third signature event in 2026, with 72 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.577 per round, which made it the ninth straight season that this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.

BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7003) versus Xander Schauffele (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:05 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational is on Tommy Fleetwood, who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood removed the albatross from his PGA Tour career by winning the Tour Championship last August. Of course, Fleetwood has eight victories on the DP Tour — including the DP World India Tour in October — so closing the deal on the PGA Tour was considered just a matter of time. Since his return to the PGA Tour last month, he has been playing with as much confidence as he has in the United States in his career. He debuted on the PGA Tour with a tie for fourth place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It was his fourth top-four or better finish worldwide since winning the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta. He followed that up with a tie for seventh place at the PGA The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. So far in 2026, he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and fourth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Overall, he ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total. His underlying metrics were outstanding last season. He ranked third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranked in the top 25 in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Overall, he ranked second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He has five top 20 finishes at Bay Hill in nine professional trips, with three top 11 results, including a tie for third place in 2019. Fleetwood always has had the talent to be a top-five player in the world — he has previously finished in second place at the British Open (two top fours) and US Open (three top fives), along with a third-place result at the Masters and a tie for fifth place at the PGA Championship in his career. Given the form he is in, he offers tremendous value at double the payout than Rory McIlroy and more than five times the return versus Scottie Scheffler. 

Fleetwood is linked (once again) with Xander Schauffele in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This head-to-head prop is printing money for us right now as Schauffele continues to struggle to regain his top-level form. He does come off a tie for seventh place at The Genesis Invitational. But in his last 36 rounds, he still only ranks 58th in Driving Accuracy and 51st in Bogey Avoidance. Schauffele may still be rusty for this event after taking four months off before making his debut on the PGA Tour at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he missed the cut in his first competitive event in almost four months. His 72 straight tournament weekend streak was snapped with that finish. We faded Schauffele at Torrey Pines in a Round One prop in what was his latest debut on the tour for a new calendar year in his career. We faded him again two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open when he finished in a tie for 41st place. He did play better in Round Four that Sunday — but I still thought he was overvalued last week, considering he has finished outside the top 54 in his two professional trips to Pebble Beach. He finished in a tie for 19th place, which was a personal best — but we still won our prop bet head-to-head on Hideki Matsuyama versus him. With his made-cut streak now gone, he may be playing the long game and working on some things with the ambition of peaking at the Masters. Right now, he has admitted that he is tinkering with his equipment. Frankly, he has not been as good since coming back from a rib injury last year that particularly impacted his Ball-Striking with his driver and irons. He ranks 59th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in 2026. He also ranks 112th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, which presents a problem on this golf course when considering all bunkers. Admittedly, his form is improving, given his nine straight rounds under par — but we did win our Tournament Matchup prop bet on Fleetwood +1.5 strokes at The Genesis Invitational. The books don’t offer scrubs in their props when we want to target a pro like Fleetwood. But I remain confident in this head-to-head this week, considering that Schauffele has not finished better than a tie for 24th place in his four professional appearances at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Take Fleetwood (7003) versus Schauffele (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.