Cappers Sports Picks

My 10* D vs G is on Cleveland State.

Am I predicting an outright upset for the 4-5 Cleveland State Vikings vs. the 7-1 Kent State Golden Flashes? I'm not. I simply feel that Kent will get caught looking past this hungry Vikings team. Most recently the Flashes beat Detroit 92-57. 

Cleveland State won't be rolling over here. Note that the Vikings had won three in a row before losing at home to Toledo 80-65 on Wednesday. The Vikings' offense has been better of late, topping 65 points in their last three games, led by Algevon Eichelberger, who averages in double figures. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 off a home loss.

- Kent State is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine off a home win scoring 85 or more points in the process.

The verdict: I think the "hungrier" team keeps this one more competitive that what this spread is suggesting; grab the points!

My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER Suns/Rockets.

These teams play little defense and each gets out and pushes the pace. That said, I still believe this number is too high. 

The Suns come in off a high-scoring OT win over the Pelicans in New Orleans, but they're still only 2-3 in their last five. After the marathon last time out, I think Phoenix takes a predictable step back here. 

The Rockets' James Harden is averaging 38.7 PPG this year. Russell Westbrook is coming off a triple double in a victory at Toronto. After the big win over the defending champs on the road, this does also potentially set up as a bit of a trap. 

Key Trends:

- Phoenix has seeen the total go under in four of five thi syear when the total is greater than or equal to 230.

- Houston has seen the total go under in nine of its last 12 in the same position.

The verdict: Addmitedly, these two teams are trash on defense. But I think the situation that each finds itself in coming into this one will help in contributing it to finally being a bit more of a defensive battle; play the under!

My 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the Dallas Stars.

After winning three of their last four, I think the Isles come up short vs. this hungry non-confernece opponent. Dallas clearly won't be taking anything for granted here after a win last time out snapped a four game slide. The Isles come in off a 3-2 OT win at home over the Golden Knights and I believe they're primed for a letdown here.

Dallas has won eight of its last nine at home and is 10-4-1 overall in its own barn. 

Key Trends:

- New York is just 28-40 (-13.4 units) after a non-conference game.

- Dallas is 44-31 (+9.5 units) in its last 75 following a divisional contest.

The verdict: I look for New York to stumble on its first road game in this tough Western Conference building; lay the price!

My 8* play is on the UNDER UVA/Clemson.

Clemson is 12-0 and it's led by QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne. The Tigers rolled through the confernece with a pefect 8-0 record, scoring 370 points in the process. However Clemson was more known for its defensive prowess, conceding just 84 points in those contests.

Virginia is just lucky to be here after losing meetings to Notre Dame, Miami and Louisville. After upsetting Virgina Tech last weekend, I think the Cavs have a predictable letdown here. I also have a hard time seeing their offense genrating any sort of an attack vs. this nation leading Clemson defensive unit.

Key Trends:

- UVA has seen the total dip under the number in six of its last seven after a home win vs. a conference rival.

- Clemson has seen the total dip below in its last three as a neutral field favorite.

The verdict: Look for the Tigers to control this one on both sides of the ball; play the under!

My 8* play is on the OVER Georgia/LSU.

Georgia is in its third straight SEC Conference Championship Game. The Bulldogs only allow ten PPG on average, but I think they'll get pushed here by the LSU Tigers. Georgia lost a double OT game to South Carolina as a 21-point favorite. It struggled at times to put points on the board, but I think that Jake Fromm and company carry over the momentum from last week's 52-7 destruction of Georgia Tech.

LSU won't be resting on its laurels obviously as it makes its first Conference Championship appearance since 2011. Ed Oregon's offense is ranked No. 2 in the country and it enters off a 50-7 thrashing of Texas A&M.

Key Trends:

- Georgia has seen the total go over the number in its last two as a neutral field dog.

- LSU has seen the total go over in three of four this year after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game.

The verdict: I expect a competitive game which flies well above the posted number once it's all said and done; play the over!

My 10* play is on Cincinnati/Memphis UNDER.

The 10-2 Bearcats meet the 11-1 Tigers for the AAC Championship and in my opinion, this one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout." Note that the Tigers actually defeated the Bearcats 34-24 in these team's respective regular season finales. The victory earned Memphis the right to host this game. 

Bearcats' starting QB Desmond Ridder was held back in that loss because of an injured shoulder and if he does get the call today, one has to wonder about his health/form obviously? His backup Ben Bryant struggled for 229 passing yards and two INT's, while also getting sacked five times. Look for the Bearcats to once again run the offense through RB Michael Warren II.

Memphis' QB Brady White has 3,307 passing yards this season with 32 TD's and eight INT's. But with the visitors looking to control the clock while they have the ball, I think today's re-match definitely sets up as much more of a defensive affair. 

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 15 as an underdog.

- Memphis has seen the total dip under in three of its last four after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games.

The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under!

My 10* play is on Lafayette.

To say this is a "revenge" game would be an understatement, as App State has won seven straight in this series (is 4-3 ATS in those games.) UL Lafayette held on for a win over UL Monroe last week, with QB Levi Lewis going for 270 yards and three TD's. I think he'll have enough to keep his team in this one late. And he'll of course be leaning heavily on a run game which averages  a whopping 274 YPG this season, led by Raymond Calais. 

The Mountaineers like to run the ball as well behind the strong play of Darrynton Evans. QB Zack Thomas though has also been great, with ten TD's and no picks over his last three games.

Key Trends:

- The Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road dog of seven points or less.

- Louisiana Lafayette is 4-0 ATS in its last four in revenging an upset loss against an opponent as the favorite.

- App State is an unimpressive 3-3 ATS at home this year.

The verdict: App State smashed UL Lafayette in the 2018 Sun Belt Championship game by 49 points. Look for the Cajuns to keep this one competitive until the very end; grab the points!

My 8* play is on CMU.

The Redhawks won't be able to keep pace with the Chips in my opinion down the stretch. CMU has won six of its last six, including destroying Toledo 49-7 this past weekend. Miami on the other hand lost to Ball State 41-27 to close out its regular season at 7-5. 

I think Chips' senior QB Quentin Dormady is a difference maker here. He enters on top form, having posted 250 passing yards in each of his past five games. RedHawks' QB Brett Gabbert has passed for under 150 yards in three straight games.

Key Trends:

- Miami Ohio is only just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a road loss.

- CMU is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win by 20 points or more.

The verdict: Detroit is only a two hour drive from Pleasant Hill, so the Chips will have a sizeable "home field" advantage. I think the experience that senior Dormady brings to the table wins the day; lay the points!