Cappers Sports Picks

Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread.

Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin.

Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020.

The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season.

No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football. Sam Hartman is in the Heisman Trophy discussion especially if Notre Dame wins this game. Early marketplace activity has been on the Over knowing these two skill position superstars are playing.

I see it differently.

I look at how strong these two defenses are and find this total to be too high. Ohio State is giving up an average of 6.6 points in its three games. The Buckeyes just held Western Kentucky's Austin Reed to 207 passing yards and one TD. Reed is the FBS active career leader in passing yards. Reed isn't Hartman, but he's still darn good.

Notre Dame ranks ninth in the country in fewest points allowed. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Notre Dame.

I have questions about Ohio State's offense at this stage of the season. The Buckeyes' offensive line hasn't looked that good. Neither has their ground attack. QB Kyle McCord is unproven against this caliber of opponent. If McCord was that good, he would have been named the starting QB going into the season rather than three games into the year.

At first glance this total may look right given how well Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke is playing and the threat Temple poses through the air thanks to E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner.

But look at the weather forecast. It's grim to say the least: 90 percent chance of rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-30 mph range.

The 20th-ranked Hurricanes aren't thrilled to be traveling to Philadelphia for their first road game. Miami isn't going to show much against this lowly opponent. The Hurricanes play slow - only six teams go at a slower tempo - and will just want to get this game to finish fast. Temple has been good against the pass ranking 23rd in pass defense.

Miami ranks in the top-20 in fewest yards allowed per game. Temple only averages 24 points a game and that's going against weak competition in Akron, Rutgers and FCS Norfolk State. Warner is off to a slow start and the Owls rank 87th in rushing.

Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite.

But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas.

I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner.

Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech.

The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings.

Duke showed how strong it is defensively holding Clemson to seven points. Connecticut doesn't have the weapons to seriously challenge the Blue Devils defense. The Huskies, who are on their second quarterback, average only 15 points and 314 yards. Duke has the No. 5 run defense in the country. Connecticut allowed nine tackles for losses during their 24-17 loss to FIU last week.

The Blue Devils are more of a grind-out team rather than explosive. This is their first road game. They have Notre Dame on deck. So the Blue Devils aren't likely to show this weak opponent any wrinkles in their playbook saving any trick plays for Notre Dame.

Duke is going to be ground-oriented and doing it at a slow pace.

Weather could factor, too, in limiting the score. Rain and heavy winds are in the forecast.