Cappers Sports Picks

*3 Star Play on Sam Houston State* I'm a huge fan of Chris Beard, so I'm far from excited to bet against him and Texas Tech. Still, this is a massive number. Texas Tech has a high upside, but they do still have some question marks. There aren't a lot of proven shooters on the outside for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders play a team here who wants to keep teams out of the paint. Can Texas Tech hit enough of their long range jumpers?

The numbers here point to Texas Tech being a favorite of about 28 points, but that isn't factoring in the spot. Texas Tech plays Houston on Sunday in Fort Worth. That game is a really big game for both programs. If the Red Raiders get ahead here, no one could blame them if they coast a bit with the backups in late in the game.

Sam Houston State has a couple very nice players led by Zach Nutall. The Bearkats clearly can't stick around with Texas Tech here, but they are a pretty decent Southland team. I think this one lands in the 20's.

Grab the huge amount of points.

Take Sam Houston State. 

*3 Star Play on Kansas State* I faded Kansas State with Drake in game one, but I'm going to back Kansas State in game two as a home underdog.

Kansas State isn't a good team this year, but the market perception of them swung too hard here. Bruce Weber's teams are always going to play a lot of close games with their slow paced defensive style. 

Colorado should be without Schwartz here, and I think he is their second best player on the roster. Look for Kansas State to game plan to make things difficult for McKinley Wright in this one.

The Buffaloes haven't been a good road team in recent years, and I have plenty of reservations about them. I expect both defenses to have the upper hand here, and we are getting quite a few points on the home team.

Take Kansas State. 

*3 Star Play on Seton Hall* The Seton Hall Pirates don't have the same upside they had last year with Powell as the superstar of the team, but this is a still a very solid team. They are great on the inside led by Sandro Mamukelashvili who can do a little bit of everything. I don't see anyone on the Louisville roster who can slow him down. 

Louisville blew out Evansville in game one, but Evansville is going to be terrible. This is a massive step up in class for them. There was a ton of turnover on the Louisville roster from last year to this year. The Cardinals aren't likely to just have smooth sailing right through the early part of the season. 

I expect Seton Hall's perimeter defense to give Louisville some trouble here. Look for a tight game all the way through.

Take Seton Hall. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights rank first in the nation in pace of play. They are using only 19 seconds between plays on average. The USF Bulls rank 30th and they are only using 23.32 seconds between plays in conference action. This game should have a bunch of plays in it. That's always a good start for a high over.

UCF is first in the nation with 71 plays of 20 yards or more. The Knights have only played eight games, so they are really putting up the big gainers at a very high rate. USF is giving up 6.17 yards per play in AAC action so far. UCF should put up a very big number here. It would be surprise if they don't at least get into the upper 40's. 

USF has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and there are two great offensive minds on this staff in Jeff Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. The UCF defense has been a big weakness this year, and I do think USF will get their yards and scoring opportunities here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs ranked 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. Their interior defense was as bad as anyone in the country. UNC Asheville pushes the pace and tries to get steals and transition baskets, but their opposition gets a ton of easy looks in the paint and a lot of trips to the free throw line. 

UNC Wilmington is picking up their pace a lot under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He worked under Kevin Keatts and Keatts' system is a very fast paced one where the team tries to attack the rim and get to the basket a lot.

There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow the pace down in this game. This total is set a few points lower than it should have been considering the tempo here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns are much better defensively this season. Texas ranks 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. The defensive coaching staff is much better this year, and they have done a good job being aggressive on this side of the football. 

Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. They should be able to make Texas one dimensional on offense. Iowa State already has 22 sacks this year, and the Texas offensive line is a weakness.

Iowa State is playing at an extremely slow pace to have a game totaled this high. The game could certainly get to the total if there are a bunch of big plays or turnovers for scores, but in a normal game state I don't see this one getting this high.

The last 5 meetings between these two have finished at this many combined points: 24, 33, 24, 34, and 44 points.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense is much more explosive this year despite losing a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. Why? A new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead is a really good offensive mind who puts his players in positions to make big plays.

Oregon already has a whopping 21 plays of 20 yards or more in only three games. The Ducks have several good running backs who put a lot of pressure on any defense, and the Oregon State run defense is a big problem because of their weak defensive interior on the line. 

Oregon has been a big disappointment defensively. The Ducks are giving up 6.32 yards per play so far this year. Their tackling needs some serious work, and the biggest problem spot is their run defense. That isn't good when going against Jefferson and the Oregon State running attack.

Oregon State is 29th in pace of play and the Beavers should be able to hit some big gainers against this Oregon defense.

Oregon will put up a bunch of points in this contest and Oregon State should put up enough as well. 

Take the over.