Cappers Sports Picks

*4 Star Play Over* The Pacific Tigers are playing much faster this year. Pacific has seen 7 of its 9 games go over this posted total. They rate 79th in overall tempo so far this year. They also rank 294th in defensive efficiency. On offense, they are excellent at not turning the ball over, and that helps them a lot with efficiency.

Northern Arizona is a terrible defensive team. They have been that way for many years. They have been a bottom 20 defense in the country the last two years. Their numbers this year are very weak once again.

Both of these teams foul a lot. Both are in the bottom 50 in the country in defending without fouling. Pacific is holding opponents to 60.8% from the free throw line. We know there is no such thing as free throw defense, so this will regress.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns will have an excellent defense this year. Chris Beard's teams are always tremendous on defense, and this team has the athleticism to be a major problem on defense. Texas is forcing turnovers at a very high rate and Illinois has had trouble with turnovers on offense. Texas is 3rd in the country defending the 3 point line, and Illinois is taking a bunch of shots from long range.

Illinois is playing faster this year, but the Illini are also better on defense. They are 14th in defensive efficiency and 12th in effective field goal percentage defense. Texas is going to the basket a lot, but Illinois has a big height advantage in this game.

Madison Square Garden hosts this game, and it is one of the best under venues in all of college basketball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins and High Point Panthers both really like to run. High Point is playing this new style with G.G. Smith as their new head coach. High Point is 14th in the country in average possession length this year. Furman is 51st. This game should be a track meet in terms of tempo throughout.

Furman's defense is propped up by a 61.5% FT percentage allowed. High Point gets to the line a lot, and they are shooting 69% from the line. 

Furman's offense is tremendous. They are efficient and run great sets. Furman has scored 88 points or more in four of their eight games so far this year. 

Neither team is good at protecting the basket, and I see plenty of easy inside looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are shooting a ton of 3's so far this year, and they have been falling at a very high rate. Wisconsin shot just 30.6% from long range last year, but they are at 37.4% on the season this year. Hepburn is a decent shooter, but he hit 34.8% from 3 last year and is up at 47.5% so far this season. 

Wisconsin obviously plays very slow. They are elite at forcing the opposition to play at their speed. Marquette is a top 25 tempo team in the country, and Wisconsin slowed the game down to just 69 possessions even with an overtime. The Badgers will slow the tempo here too.

Maryland has played the 241st toughest slate of defenses. The Terrapins have racked up points against teams like Coppin State, Binghamton, Louisville, etc. Wisconsin is a much tougher defensive challenge. 

Maryland is a solid defensive team too. Willard's teams always work very hard on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* A matchup of two of the very worst defenses in the country. Idaho is 345th in defensive efficiency on the year. North Dakota is 325th in defensive efficiency this year. A total set this low with two really bad defenses is pretty rare.

The pace of the game will be pretty slow, but I do think the efficiency will be there to get this one past the posted total.

Both the Big Sky Conference Summit League are well known for high scoring games with efficient offenses and really weak defenses. I think that plays out in a game like this one. 

Take the over.