Cappers Sports Picks

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New Orleans Pelicans +6

The Timberwolves felt like they needed to play a complete game going into the playoffs despite being locked into the No. 6 seed in their last contest.  They accomplished that by playing most of their starters and upsetting the Rockets 136-132 on the road as 10-point dogs.

Now the Timberwolves are focusing on health and rest heading into the playoffs in game No. 82 tonight.  They will be sitting Edwards, Gobert, Randle, Reid, Hyland, McDaniels, Dosunmu, Conley and Anderson.  Without eight of their top nine scorers, they should not be 6-point favorites over the Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans have no incentive to lose and I expect them to try and win this game.  They only lost by 4 to the Magic, beat the Jazz by 19 and lost by 26 to the Celtics in their last three games.  The Celtics were motivated to clinch the No. 2 seed and played like it.

No question the Pelicans are without some key players as well in Bey, Jones, Murphy, Murray and Zion as well.  But they are a much deeper team than the Timberwolves.  I really like what I've seen from Queen, Fears, Poole, Peavy and Hawkins here down the stretch.  They will play to win here in their regular season finale.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

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15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Twins and Blue Jays have combined for 14 and 11 runs in the first two games of this series.  It should be more of the same today given the poor quality of these two starting pitchers, and this total is short at just 7.5 today.

Max Scherzer is way past his prime and has only pitched 8 innings in his two starts this season.  Scherzer posted a 5.19 ERA in 17 starts last season for the Blue Jays.  Taj Bradley is off to a great start this season, but he is 21-27 with a 4.70 ERA in his career and I don't trust him.

Both bullpens have been poor with the Twins posting a 5.37 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings this season, and the Blue Jays posting a 4.92 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 67 2/3 innings.  

The OVER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the Blue Jays and Twins with 9 or more combined runs in all eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +14.5

The Detroit Pistons are locked into the No. 1 seed in the East and should not be 14.5-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers today as a result.  They will sit Jalen Duren, and their starters are unlikely to play big minutes today if they go at all.

The Indiana Pacers are locked into one of the three worst records in the NBA which gives them their best chance at the No. 1 overall pick. But they have been playing hard for weeks despite the perception that they are tanking.

In fact, the Pacers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall with just two losses by more than 15 points.  They have been very competitive including three outright victories as underdogs over the Magic, Heat and Bulls.  They will give it all in their final game of the season to try and take down the Pistons today.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Red Sox today.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center today in St. Louis.

Brayan Bello is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.50 WHIP in two starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 20 base runners in 8 innings.

Andre Pallante is 25-29 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 470 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He is backed by a poor St. Louis bullpen that has posted a 5.37 ERA and 1.54 WHIP In 57 innings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Brewers OVER 7.5

he Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 10-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 11 of their 14 games this season.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.  

The Nationals are scoring 5.8 runs per game and allowing 5.9 runs per game this season.  They face a Brewers team that is scoring 5.3 runs per game.  Given those numbers, this total of 7.5 is too short.

Zack Littell is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season for the Nationals while allowing 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 10 innings.  Brandon Woodruff is 1-0 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in two tarts, allowing 7 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Nationals and Brewers with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 12 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +14.5

The Lakers locked up home-court advantage in the first round with their wins over the Suns and Warriors in their last two games.  Those are two teams that didn't care about winning, and the results are giving the Lakers a lot of respect now.

The Lakers are still without Doncic and Reaves with LeBron questionable tonight.  They will either be the 3rd or 4th seed in the West.  With the Nuggets resting their starters today, they are giving the Lakers the 3rd seed if they want it.  The Nuggets would rather play the Rockets than the Timberwolves.  I think the Lakers would rather play the Rockets than the Timberwolves as well, so they could decide to lose this game intentionally to get the 4th seed instead of the 3.

Either way, I don't think the Lakers have the firepower without Doncic and Reaves to put away the Jazz by this kind of margin today.  The Jazz still play hard and still have enough talent to be competitive.  They just crushed the Grizzlies 147-101 last time out.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and would love to win their final game of the season.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +17.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing hard despite the perception that they are tanking.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only losses coming to the Clippers and the Warriors by 5.  They also beat the Warriors and Pelicans, and upset the Raptors in a game Toronto really needed.

The Kings have some nice young talent in Raynaud, Plowden and Clifford who all topped 20 points in their last game against the Warriors.  These guys are playing hard and would love to upset the Portland Trail Blazers tonight as well.

The Blazers need to win this game to get the 8th spot in the play-in.  You are paying a tax to back the Blazers because of it.  I actually think it's a bit of a letdown spot for them coming off their huge win over the Clippers that gave them the upper-hand on LA for that 8th spot.

All three meetings between the Blazers and Kings have been decided by 7 points or fewer this season.  The Blazers haven't won any of their last eight meetings with the Kings by more than 9 points.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 224.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They have gone for 246 or more combined points in each of their last four games.  This total of 224.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.

The Rockets are an elite defensive team when they play their starters.  But they won't play their starters today and will rest key defenders like Thompson and Smith Jr.  But their bench is fully of guys who are good offensively, and Reed Shepard will play today.

With nothing at stake for either team, this will be a care-free game with defense optional, which is always the case for the Grizzlies.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.