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UFC 175 Handicapping | Betting Preview | Free UFC Picks

UFC 175 Preview and Picks

UFC 175 comes our way from Las Vegas this Saturday. Two Titles will be on the line as Chris Weidman defends his Middleweight strap against Lyoto Machida and Ronda Rousey defends her Woman’s Title against Alexis Davis.

UFC 175: Weidman vs. Machida
Date: July 5, 2014
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Fox Sports 1, UFC Fight Pass
Main Card (on Pay-Per-View)
Chris Weidman (11-0): -200
Lyoto Machida (21-4): +160
UFC Odds From Bovada

A stacked Main Card will be preceded by a terrific preliminary card headed by Urija Faber’s bout with Alex Caceres. It promises to be a great night of fights – let’s break it down.

Chris Weidman defends his Middleweight Title for the second time off two straight wins against the once-untouchable Anderson Silva – quite a statement for all the doubters and all fighters in the UFC’s Middleweight Division. Weidman’s opposition Saturday will be provided by former Light-Heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida who has absolutely caught fire since dropping a weight class. Weidman brings a terrific all around game into the Octagon while Machida brings elusiveness unique to Machida and a counter-punching ability nearly second-to-none.

Weidman has ridden a terrific grappling game to the top of the ladder – his wrestling is top notch and his top control has served him well during an undefeated UFC career. What has impressed the world is Weidman’s improved stand-up game however. He stood and traded with Silva and came out on top twice – absolutely nobody in the world can say that! Weidman is well rounded, he is young, he is hungry and most of all – he a confident champ that won’t be eager to let someone knock him off his perch.

Lyoto Machida has proven to be in a different class during his MMA career – he looked a tad lost in losing four of seven fights at Light-Heavyweight (those fights were against the best on the planet) but he looks reborn at Middleweight knocking out Mark Munoz and decisioning Gegard Mousasi in his only two fights at this weight.

Machida’s style will likely cause Weidman some serious problems here – The Dragon is exceptionally difficult to takes down and his counter-punching ability is second to none. Simply put there aren’t a whole lot of fighters that can replicate the style of Machida. Machida’s karate background makes him very difficult to hit and is superior take down defense gives him the edge in this one.
Weidman has been impressive indeed but Machida represents a stylistic nightmare for Weidman who depends on aggressiveness, dragging the fight to the mat and getting in close on his opponents.

Machida isn’t a stranger to Title Fights – I think he rises to the occasion and gives Weidman fits en route to victory. Look for Weidman to be forced into a mistake against the Dragon – all Machida needs is one blunder!

Pick: Lyoto Machida +160

Ronda Rousey (9-0): -1400
Alexis Davis (16-5): +750

The once popular Ronda Rousey steps back into the Octagon to defend her Women’s Bantamweight Title on Saturday against Alexis Davis who has looked great during a five fight win streak and is undefeated inside the Octagon. Davis’ chore will be to stay away from Rousey’s signature armbar while Rousey’s goal will be to stay out of rage of Davis’s superior technical striking ability.

Rousey has proven in her last two fights that she isn’t just a one trick pony. A war against Miesha Tate demonstrated her durability and her win over Sara McMann showed just how far Rousey has come as a complete MMA fighter.

Alexis Davis is absolutely no joke! She is a black belt in both Japanese Ju Jitsu and BJJ – as good a grappler as there is in women’s MMA and her Muay Thai skills are light years beyond anyone that Rousey has faced.

That said Rousey has been virtually untouchable so far in her career – no reason to think any differently about Saturday’s match. While a bet on Rousey doesn’t offer any value, I am looking at a prop bet in this one. Davis should be able to last past one round in this one as she uses her striking to keep Rousey away for at least 5 minutes. Once Rousey finds her range this fight is over – my bet is the second round in this one.

Pick: Take Alexis Davis to stretch Rousey into the rare second round!

Stefan Struve (25-6): -205
Matt Mitrione (7-3): +165

Seven foot tall Stefan Struve steps back into the Octagon Saturday after a broken jaw kept him out of action for the better part of a year. Struve’s challenger Saturday? Matt Mitrione – a super athletic Heavyweight with terrific striking and an ability to learn from every fight.
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Struve brings a good all around game into the Octagon – the Skyscraper has good striking to go along with a very good grappling game. Struve’s weakness is getting hit too much – engaging in wars that he has no business being in. I think that’s his downfall again against Mitrione whose movement, his pace and his power will be too much for Struve.

All it takes is one shot for Mitrione – I think he gets that shot Saturday and ends Stefan’s night early.

Pick: Matt Mitrione +165

Uriah Hall (8-4): -400
Thiago Marreta (9-2): +300

The Ultimate Fighter winner Uriah Hall takes on TUF Brazil contestant Thiago Marreta in Middleweight action Saturday. Hall is one of the most explosive strikers in the division while Marreta also brings a strong striking background into the match.

This is a tough fight to call – Hall is likely the more talented of the two fighters but has shown a propensity of losing interest when being dragged into deep water. If Marreta can frustrate Hall he has a terrific chance of winning the fight.

But my guess is that Hall has worked on the mental side of his game and as the more talented of the two fighters, I like him to win and make a statement in the UFCs Middleweight Division. Don’t blink – it will likely happen fast!

Pick: Uriah Hall -400

Marcus Brimage (6-2): -115
Russell Doane (13-3): -115

Bantamweights open the PPV portion of UFC 175 when Marcus Brimage takes on Russell Doane. Doane looked tremendous in his UFC debut submitting BJJ World Champion Leandro Issa in the second round – impressive indeed. Brimage looked decent during his time on the TUF 14 cast –demonstrating good striking and a nice amount of power.

Brimage’s one major hole is his ground game – this will be his undoing Saturday. Doane can win this fight anywhere it happens to go – he’s that well rounded but look for him to drag this fight to the mat where he has an overwhelming advantage. I see this one ending by submission early!

Pick: Russell Doane -115

Preliminary Card

(on Fox Sports 1)

Urijah Faber (30-7): -1100 vs. Alex Caceres (10-5): +650
Pick: Urijah Faber -1100

Kenny Robertson (13-3): +125 vs. Ildemar Alcantara (20-6): -155
Pick: Ildemar Alcantara -155

Chris Camozzi (19-7): -260 vs. Bruno Santos (13-1): +200
Pick: Chris Camozzi -260

George Roop (15-10-1): -200 vs. Rob Font (10-1): +160
Pick: George Roop -200

Preliminary Card

(on UFC Fight Pass)

Luke Zachrich (13-3): +135 vs. Guilherme Vasconcelos (3-1): -165
Pick: Luke Zachrich +135

Kevin Casey (5-3): +145 vs. Bubba Bush (8-2): -175
Pick: Kevin Casey +145

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